nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒03‒07
fifty papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Lessons of Keynes’s Economic Consequences in a Turbulent Century By Clavin, P.; Corsetti, G.; Obstfeld, M.; Tooze, A.
  2. Social Mobility in Sweden Before the Welfare State By Berger, Thor; Engzell, Per; Eriksson, Björn; Molinder, Jakob
  3. Quantitative Data and the Economy By Pınar Ceylan; Metin M. Cosgel
  4. Power politics and the expansion of U.S. exports, 1879-1938 By Tena Junguito, Antonio; Restrepo Estrada, María Isabel
  5. Kenneth Boulding: A Friends' Economist By Robert Scott
  6. Behavioral Finance During the Belle Époque: When the Actual Portfolios of French Individual Investors Met Behavioral Portfolio Theory By Maxime MERLI; Antoine PARENT
  7. Refugees without Assistance: English-Language Attainment and Economic Outcomes in the Early Twentieth Century By Abramitzky, Ran; Boustan, Leah; Catron, Peter; Connor, Dylan; Voigt, Rob
  8. Socialist Economic Development in the 21st Century By Cuong, Nghiem Phu Kien; Khiem, Bui Quang
  9. Emigration state: race, citizenship and settler imperialism in modern British history, c. 1850-1972 By Foks, Freddy
  10. Historical Prevalence of Infectious Diseases and Entrepreneurship: the Role of Institutions in 125 Countries By Messono, Omang; Asongu, Simplice
  11. The Value of Piped Water and Sewers: Evidence from 19th Century Chicago By Michael Coury; Toru Kitagawa; Allison Shertzer; Matthew Turner
  12. A database of the economic impacts of historical volcanic eruptions By M Goujon; Hajare El Hadri; Raphael Paris
  13. Unequal Unification? Income Inequality and Unification in 19th Century Italy and Germany By Erfurth, Philipp Emanuel
  14. Class Di¤erences and the Commercial Revolution: An Equilibrium Selection Story By Maurizio Iacopetta
  15. From exit to control: The structural power of finance under asset manager capitalism By Braun, Benjamin
  16. Agrarian Origins of Individualism and Collectivism By Martin Fiszbein; Yeonha Jung; Dietrich Vollrath
  17. "Controlling for what?" Folk economics, legal consciousness and the gender wage gap in the United States By Hirschman, Daniel
  18. Sex-based sorting among economists: Evidence from the NBER By Davies, Benjamin
  19. The Marginal Labor Supply Disincentives of Welfare: Evidence from Administrative Barriers to Participation By Robert A. Moffitt; Matthew V. Zahn
  20. The Origin and Evolution of Chinese Lineages By Noblit, Graham
  21. La Revue d'économie politique et la guerre de 1914 - 1918 By Ramón Tortajada
  22. On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data By Juncal Cunado; David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta
  23. Forthcoming in "Journal of the History of Economic Though" in 2024. Title: "Does Friendship Stem from Altruism? Adam Smith and the Distinction between Love-based and Interest-based Preferences" By Khalil, Elias
  24. The pathway of an economist throughout John Rawls' works By Claude Gamel
  25. The Early Origins of Judicial Stringency in Bail Decisions: Evidence from Early-Childhood Exposure to Hindu-Muslim Riots in India By Nitin Kumar Bharti; Sutanuka Roy
  26. Critical Periods in Cognitive and Socioemotional Development: Evidence from Weather Shocks in Indonesia By Duncan Webb
  27. Make the Economy Scream? U.S. Banks and Foreign Firms During the Cold War By Aldunate, Felipe; Gonzalez, Felipe; Prem, Mounu
  28. Workfare as the forced free labor of social benefit recipients By Maud Simonet
  29. A Field Experiment on Business Opposition to the U.S.-China Trade War By Dolan, Lindsay; Kubinec, Robert; Nielson, Daniel; Zhang, Jack
  30. Bargaining over beauty: The economics of contracts in Renaissance art markets By Piano, Ennio Emanuele; Piano, Clara E.
  31. Maximising Impact Optimising Profit By Gücüm, Selin; Özesmi, Uygar
  32. Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail? By Kristian Blickle; Markus Brunnermeier; Stephan Luck
  33. Bank Local Specialization By Anne Duquerroy; Clément Mazet-Sonilhac; Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier; Daniel Paravisini
  34. Grandparents in Italy: trends and changes in the demography of grandparenthood from 1998 to 2016 By Cisotto, Elisa; Meli, Eleonora; Cavrini, Giulia
  35. "Designing Wartime Economic Controls: Productivity and Firm Dynamics in the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry, 1937–1939" Abstract In 1937, the Japanese government accelerated the expansion of its military expenditure and began to impose controls on the economy to maintain the balance of international payments. The controls were developed through trial and error. The cotton spinning industry was one of the industries most deeply affected by these controls. Initially, the government simply reduced the allocation of foreign exchange for raw cotton imports. However, because this measure prevented the export of cotton products, especially to countries outside the yen bloc, a new scheme of control, the “export–import link system,†was adopted from the second half of 1938. This scheme was intentionally designed to give firms incentives to export to non-yen bloc countries and to incorporate elements of market mechanism into economic control. Analyzing firm-level data, we find that under the link system, firms with higher labor productivity tended to grow faster, as occurs under a market economy. This relationship was not observed during the early stage of the control. This difference is reflected in the pattern of the change in aggregate labor productivity. Under the export–import link system, the positive reallocation effect was substantial, similar to a market economy, whereas it was almost zero under the early controls. These findings indicate that the design of controls matters for the performance of controlled economies. By Tetsuji Okazaki
  36. Historical Self-Governance and Norms of Cooperation By Devesh Rustagi
  37. Time use and happiness: Evidence across three decades By Han, Jeehoon; Kaiser, Caspar
  38. Is the post-war trading system ending? By Uri Dadush
  39. Long-Run Mortality Effects of a Reform That Opened up Access to Secondary Education By van den Berg, Gerard J.; Janys, Lena; Christensen, Kaare
  40. Sugar-sweetened beverages tax and front-of-package labelling in Peru: Two decades of history By Cárdenas, María Kathia; Cazzulino, Pablo; Popkin, Barry; Miranda, J. Jaime
  41. The efficiency of occupational licensing during the Gilded and Progressive eras: Evidence from judicial reviews By Mark T. Kanazawa
  42. Radiophobia - useful concept or ostracising term? By Lindberg, John C. H.; Archer, Denali
  43. The accumulation of disadvantage: how motherhood and relationship breakdown influence married and single mothers’ economic outcomes By Harkness, Susan
  44. Economists in the 2008 Financial Crisis: Slow to See, Fast to Act By Daniel Levy; Tamir Mayer; Alon Raviv
  45. The British Library Holding: Kinh tế Việt Nam - Thăng trầm và đột phá By Library, Cornell University
  46. The Paradox of Redistribution in Time. Social Spending in 53 Countries, 1967-2018. By Xabier Garcia-Fuente
  47. Origins and consequences of long ties in social networks By Jahani, Eaman; Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Bailey, Michael; Eckles, Dean
  48. Strangers and foreigners: Trust and attitudes toward citizenship By Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo; Tedeschi, Gian Luca
  49. Financialisation as a (it’s-not-meant-to-make-sense) gigantic global joke By Palma, J. G.
  50. Decarbonized energies and the wealth of three European nations: a comparative nexus study using Granger and Toda-Yamamoto approaches By Simionescu, Mihaela; Schneider, Nicolas; Gavurova, Beata

  1. By: Clavin, P.; Corsetti, G.; Obstfeld, M.; Tooze, A.
    Abstract: Just over a century old, John Maynard Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919) remains a seminal document of the twentieth century. At the time, the book was a prescient analysis of political events to come. In the decades that followed, this still controversial text became an essential ingredient in the unfolding of history. In this essay, we review the arc of experience since 1919 from the perspective of Keynes’s influence and his changing understanding of economics, politics, and geopolitics. We identify how he, his ideas, and this text became key reference points during times of turbulence as actors sought to manage a range of shocks. Near the end of his life, Keynes would play a central role in planning the world economy’s reconstruction after World War II. We argue that the “global order†that evolved since then, marked by increasingly polarized societies, leaves the community of nations ill prepared to provide key global public goods or to counter critical collective threats.
    Keywords: Keynes, World War I, Versailles, interwar period, League of Nations, World War II, Bretton Woods, Cold War, multilateralism, global order
    JEL: B30 E10 E30 F30 F40 N10 N20
    Date: 2021–10–05
  2. By: Berger, Thor; Engzell, Per; Eriksson, Björn; Molinder, Jakob
    Abstract: We use historical census data to show that Sweden exhibited high levels of intergenerational occupational mobility several decades before the rise of the welfare state. Mobility rates were higher than in other 19th- and 20th-century European countries, closer to those observed in the highly mobile 19th-century United States. We leverage mobility variation across Swedish municipalities to shed light on potential determinants: economic growth and migration are positively correlated with mobility, consistent with the patterns observed across countries.
    Date: 2021–09–30
  3. By: Pınar Ceylan (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin); Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Economic historians of the Ottoman empire have recently made great progress in the study of quantitative data and the economy. They have used data from various sources, including tax registers, court records, and other types of surveys and financial accounts. Applying state of the art analytical techniques to the data, they have examined numerous interesting questions regarding the Ottoman economy, population, and institutions in regions ranging from Anatolia and the Balkans to Syria, Palestine, and Egypt in the south, Georgia in the east, and Hungary and Poland in the north. We offer a basic introduction to the literature by surveying important developments since the beginning of the twenty-first century. The survey shows that this area of research has become a mature subfield of both Ottoman history and economic history.
    JEL: N01 N13 N15 N23 N25 N33 N35 N43 N45 N53 N55 N63 N65 N73 N75 N83 N85 N93 N95 O52 O53
    Date: 2022–02
  4. By: Tena Junguito, Antonio; Restrepo Estrada, María Isabel
    Abstract: In this paper we present for the first-time quantitative evidence of the effect of U.S. power policy on the expansion of its export market from the late-19th century to the eve of World War II. U.S. imperial policies were expressed through annexation, dominion, and gunboat policies, as did other empires, and exports to these markets grew more than three times faster than the rest of the territories. Our most relevant contribution to the discussion that power plays a critical role in international trade is based on a new geographically extensive database with information on bilateral trade flows, market size, trade costs and variables that capture U.S. political and military power. We first estimate a gravity equation to see the relationship between our political variables and U.S exports and then we present causal evidence of the role of the colonies and protectorates in the expansion of U.S exports through an event study and the estimation of a generalized difference-in-differences model.
    Keywords: Power politics and Us exports; Us Imperialism; 19th And 20th Century; Us international political activity
    JEL: F13 F54 N40 N70
    Date: 2022–02–23
  5. By: Robert Scott (Monmouth University)
    Abstract: This paper examines Kenneth Boulding's (1910-1993) religious beliefs and argues he was one of the most prolific religious economists in the 20 th century. He was an enigmatic economist whose career spanned over six decades. He helped to establish the field of general systems and furthered peace studies and conflict and defense. His early work earned him the John Bates Clark medal in 1949. But behind Boulding's theoretical economics was a deep religious ideology. Strongly affected by World War I while growing up in Liverpool, England, Boulding became a lifelong pacifist. Raised Methodist, Boulding discovered Quakerism in high school. While Boulding published widely in the field of economics, he also published almost 100 articles in Quaker journals. Boulding's body of work in economics and Quakerism led to interesting crosspollination. His work on peace and conflict and defense were a direct result of his pacifism. Boulding's work shows deep concern for human betterment and prosperity that is seeped in his religious principles.
    Keywords: human betterment,Kenneth Boulding,pacifism,Quakers,Religious Society of Friends
    Date: 2022–01–24
  6. By: Maxime MERLI (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Antoine PARENT (OFCE, Université Paris 8, LED & CAC-IXXI, ENS Lyon)
    Abstract: In this article we unearth the first real portfolios of French individual investors of the Belle Époque by reinvestigating the study of Des Essars and the comments of his contemporaries (Coste, Neymarck, and Leroy Beaulieu). The results are striking: we find strong elements of behavioral finance during the first era of financial globalization. Both the actual portfolios and the comments and advice of the financial analysts of the time reveal traces of behavioral finance and, more specifically, echo very clearly behavioral portfolio theory a century before its modeling. This discovery is important not only from the point of view of the historical depth of behavioral finance, but also for the persistence and legitimacy of the questions that behavioral finance has always addressed to standard finance.
    Keywords: Financial History, Individual Investors, Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Portfolio Theory.
    JEL: G11 G14 G15 N20 N23
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Abramitzky, Ran; Boustan, Leah; Catron, Peter; Connor, Dylan; Voigt, Rob
    Abstract: The United States has admitted more than 3 million refugees since 1980 through official refugee resettlement programs that provide temporary assistance. Scholars have highlighted the success of refugee groups to show the positive impact of governmental programs on assimilation and integration. In the past, however, refugees arrived without formal selection processes or federal support. We examine the integration of historical refugees using a large archive of recorded oral history interviews to understand linguistic attainment and economic outcomes of migrants who arrived before 1940. Using detailed measures of vocabulary, syntax and accented speech, we find that refugee migrants achieved higher levels of English proficiency than did economic migrants, a finding that holds even when comparing migrants from the same country of origin or religious group. This study improves on previous research of immigrant language acquisition, which typically rely on self-reported measures of fluency, and on studies of refugees, which typically assign refugee status based on country-of-birth alone. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that refugees, being unable to immediately return to their origin country, may have had greater incentive to learn or be exposed to English, which increased their linguistic attainment. Our results provide an optimistic historical precedent for the incorporation of refugees into American society.
    Date: 2021–12–14
  8. By: Cuong, Nghiem Phu Kien; Khiem, Bui Quang
    Abstract: Over a hundred years after the first socialist revolution broke the global monopoly of capitalism, a new class of socialist-oriented socioeconomic development is coming to the fore. Capitalism is still dominant worldwide, although its hegemony is no longer undisputed, and humankind is now faced with a key existential challenge. This book proposes an alternative path to overcoming the worldwide crisis of globalized capitalism. It offers a novel, balanced, and historically rooted interpretation of the successes and failures of socialist economic construction throughout the last century.
    Date: 2022–01–10
  9. By: Foks, Freddy
    Abstract: What role did migration play in the making of modern Britain? We now have a good sense of the way ethnicity, class, religion and gender structured immigrants’ experience and what impact they had on Britain’s culture, society and economy. But as Nancy Green pointed out almost two decades ago, scholars of migration must focus on exit as well as entry. Such a call to study ‘the politics of exit’ is especially apposite in the case of the UK. For in every decade between 1850 and 1980 (with the exception of the 1930s), the UK experienced net emigration year on year. This article analyses this outflow of migrants to give a new account of the UK as an 'emigration state'. With this concept in mind, this paper offers a new account of the formation of migration policy in the UK and seeks to transform our sense of the chronological and geographical boundaries of modern Britain.
    Date: 2021–12–16
  10. By: Messono, Omang; Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the historical prevalence of infectious diseases on contemporary entrepreneurship. Previous studies reveal the persistence of the effects of historical diseases on innovation, through the channel of culture. Drawing on the epidemiological origin of institutions, we propose a framework which argues that the impact of infectious disease prevalence on contemporary entrepreneurship is mediated by property rights. The central hypothesis posits that a guarantee of property rights reduces the effect of past diseases on entrepreneurship. Using data from 125 countries, we find strong and robust evidence on the proposed hypothesis and other results. Property rights are higher in countries where the prevalence of diseases was low, which leads to good entrepreneurship scores. In contrast, countries with high disease prevalence did not have time to develop strong institutions to secure property rights. This explains their low level of entrepreneurship today. These results are robust to alternative methods and measures of property rights. Furthermore, our results also confirm the level of development, culture and the digitalization of economies as transmission channels between past diseases and the current level of entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship; institutions; diseases; property rights
    JEL: I0 I23 I31 J24
    Date: 2021–09
  11. By: Michael Coury; Toru Kitagawa; Allison Shertzer; Matthew Turner
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of piped water and sewers on property values in mid-19th century Chicago. The cost of sewer construction depends sensitively on imperceptible variation in grade, and such variations in grade delay water and sewer service to part of the city. This delay provides quasi-random variation for causal estimates. We extrapolate ATE estimates from our natural experiment to the area treated with water and sewer service during 1874-1880 using a new estimator. Water and sewer access increases property values by more than a factor of two. This exceeds costs by about a factor of 60.
    JEL: L97 N11 O18 R3
    Date: 2022–02
  12. By: M Goujon (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Hajare El Hadri (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Raphael Paris (LMV - Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - OPGC - Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: History has shown that economic consequences of a volcanic eruption can be disastrous, and nowadays 800 million people in 86 different countries are living within 100 km of an active or a potentially active volcano. Eruptions can cause significant economic loss and damage directly (eruptive processes) or indirectly (associated non-eruptive processes like lahars, tsunamis, etc.), and through cascading effects (perturbations on transport, networks, etc.). Loss and damages can then be direct, indirect, tangible or intangible, short-term or long-term, also depending on the exposure and vulnerability of the economic activities. Existing database on historical eruptions do not provide, or too sparsely, information on these economic impacts. The aim of the project presented in this paper is to build a new database to increase our understanding in the field, to facilitate the identification of vulnerability and resilience factors to future events. We first selected a sample of 55 eruptions from 42 volcanoes located in 18 developing and developed countries, that occurred after the World War II. We documented a number of physical characteristics of these eruptions and volcanoes. Second, we identified the different damages and losses due to volcanic events through 37 qualitative and quantitative variables. We collected economic information and data on these variables, using a variety of sources (governmental and non-governmental agencies, academic institutions, volcanic observatories, press, etc.). This database will be accessible through a web interface and the community will be able to contribute to its development by recording information on the economic consequences of past and future events. A next step would consist in extrapolating the economic impacts for those historical eruptions with missing data and of those that are not included in our first sample.
    Keywords: Database,Natural disaster,Economic damage,Volcanic eruption
    Date: 2021–03
  13. By: Erfurth, Philipp Emanuel
    Abstract: This research provides a comprehensive study of the linkages between unification and related policy choices on income inequality by examining the cases of Italy and Germany in the context of 19th century unification. To conduct this analysis, the study puts forward estimates of income inequality for pre-unification German states using social tables, compiled using primary data, some of which have thus far been unexplored in economic research. The findings suggest that differences in inequality between regions were more pronounced in Italy than in Germany. In seeking explanations for these trends, the study explores linkages between institutional structures, governance frameworks and inequality, connecting the research on federalism with the literature on inequality extraction. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2021–11–03
  14. By: Maurizio Iacopetta (SKEMA Business School - SKEMA Business School, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: The reopening of the Mediterranean routes in the tenth century sparked, in some regions of Europe, a long period of economic boom. It also triggered a social change whereby some members of the nobility, despite their social status, turned to commerce. I explain these events through the lens a Kiyotaki and Wright (1989) model, extended to a two-country world. The response of the elite to a communication shock causes the economy to transit from a low-to a high-production equilibrium, if pre-existing class di¤erences are not too large. Quantitative experiments illustrate the view of economic historians that medieval expansion ensued in regions where the elite enjoyed relatively modest privileges and was slow in places, most notably France, where the elite's preoccupation for preserving the social-status was strong.
    Keywords: Equilibrium Selection,Trade,Search
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Braun, Benjamin
    Abstract: Political economists have theorized the structural power of finance as a function of the scarcity of financial capital, which empowers its owners and intermediaries to (threaten) exit. This theory has trouble explaining the non-death of the rentier at a time when financial capital is abundant and lacks a credible exit option. This paper presents a theory updated for a world characterized by financial capital abundance, and by a shift in the predominant function of finance from banking to asset management. Today, asset managers pool financial capital on a scale that often puts them in a position of (near) control, while also maintaining a high degree of portfolio diversification. This defining feature of asset manager capitalism, although observable across asset classes, is most pronounced in the corporate economy. Whereas the control-based dominance of finance capital during the early 20th century was characterized by credit-debt relationships between banks and corporations, today asset managers’ equity holdings dominate; and whereas the shareholder capitalism of the late 20th century was characterized by impatient investors wielding the threat of exit, the power of asset managers in corporate governance is based on their large and illiquid, yet fully diversified shareholdings. Theorizing the structural power of finance as based on control and diversification helps explain both the rentier’s longevity and asset managers’ contribution to that outcome.
    Date: 2021–10–12
  16. By: Martin Fiszbein; Yeonha Jung; Dietrich Vollrath
    Abstract: We study the influence of agricultural labor intensity on individualism across U.S. counties. To measure historical labor intensity in agriculture we combine data on crop-specific labor requirements and county-specific crop mix around 1900. To address endogeneity we exploit climate-induced variation in crop mix. Our estimates indicate that an increase of one standard deviation in labor intensity is associated with a reduction of 0.2-0.4 standard deviations in individualism (as captured by the share of children with infrequent names). We further document consistent patterns using within-county changes in labor intensity over time due to both mechanization and the boll weevil shock. While culture transformed in response to changes in labor intensity, we also find that historical agricultural patterns had a lasting imprint that influences geographic variation in individualism today.
    JEL: N51 O13 P16
    Date: 2022–01
  17. By: Hirschman, Daniel (Brown University)
    Abstract: Studies of the political power of economic knowledge have tended to foreground the role of causal claims in the form of grand theories or more narrow findings produced by experimental methods. In contrast, scholars have paid relatively little attention to the role of economic experts' descriptions. This article highlights one category of influential, quantitative descriptive claim: stylized facts. Stylized facts are simple empirical regularities in need of explanation. Focusing on the example of the gender wage gap in the United States, this article showcases how stylized facts travel into political debates, and how the choices made in characterizing an aspect of economic life (such as controlling for full-time work, but little else) interact with social movement activism, and folk understandings of economic life shaped by legal consciousness. The gender wage gap was first calculated in the 1950s, but did not take on special importance until the 1960s-1970s when feminists rallied around the statistic as a useful aggregate measure of women's economic disempowerment. Academics soon followed, and sociologists and economists began to publish studies documenting trends in the gap and trying to account for its sources. The comparable worth movement of the 1980s explicitly argued that the wage gap resulted from occupational segregation and the devaluation of women's work. As that movement faltered in the late 1980s, the gender wage gap became increasingly understood through the lens of women's choices and tradeoffs between work and family, and occupational segregation dropped out of the narrative, even as academics documented the persistent importance of segregation in explaining the remaining gap. Throughout this period, the gap was frequently misunderstood or misrepresented as reflecting the narrow sort of same-job, different-pay discrimination made illegal by the 1963 Equal Pay Act, adding confusion to the public debate over women's economic position. These dynamics showcase how technical choices made in the identification of stylized facts, such as statistical controls, are simultaneously deeply political choices.
    Date: 2021–11–12
  18. By: Davies, Benjamin
    Abstract: I compare the co-authorship patterns of male and female economists using historical data on National Bureau of Economic Research working papers. Males tended to work in smaller teams than females, but co-authored more papers and so had more co-authors overall. Males and females co-authored with members of the same sex more often than would be expected if co-authorships were random. This was especially true for males in Macro/Finance.
    Date: 2022–01–20
  19. By: Robert A. Moffitt; Matthew V. Zahn
    Abstract: Existing research on the static effects of the manipulation of welfare program benefit parameters on labor supply has allowed only restrictive forms of heterogeneity in preferences. Yet preference heterogeneity implies that the marginal effects on labor supply of welfare expansions and contractions may differ in different time periods with different populations and which sweep out different portions of the distribution of preferences. A new examination of the heavily studied AFDC program uses variation in state-level administrative barriers to entering the program in the late 1980s and early 1990s to estimate the marginal labor supply effects of changes in program participation induced by that variation. The estimates are obtained from a theory-consistent reduced form model which allows for a nonparametric specification of how changes in welfare program participation affect labor supply on the margin. Estimates using a form of local instrumental variables show that the marginal treatment effects are quadratic, rising and then falling as participation rates rise (i.e., becoming more negative then less negative on hours of work). The average work disincentive is not large but that masks some margins where effects are close to zero and some which are sizable. Traditional IV which estimates a weighted average of marginal effects gives a misleading picture of marginal responses. A counterfactual exercise which applies the estimates to three historical reform periods in 1967, 1981, and 1996 when the program tax rate was significantly altered shows that marginal labor supply responses differed in each period because of differences in the level of participation in the period and the composition of who was on the program.
    Date: 2022–02
  20. By: Noblit, Graham
    Abstract: I aim to understand variation in an important and historically novel socio-political institution, the Chinese lineage. There is extensive geographic variation in the historical prominence and relevance of lineages. Using ethnographic and historical-economic evidence, I construct a theory explaining lineages as risk-pooling institutions, which provide lineage members with access to land. More so, variation in regional demand for risk-pooling and/or access to land likely stems from well-studied rice-wheat agroeconomic differences. I test this hypothesis by examining whether lineage activity is associated with landholding size, precipitation predictability, and historically documented precipitation disasters and find support for my hypothesis.
    Date: 2021–12–22
  21. By: Ramón Tortajada (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Cet article entend retracer la façon dont la Revue d'économie politique s'est inscrite dans la Grande Guerre.
    Keywords: première guerre mondiale,revue d'économie politique,histoire économique,revue économique,analyse économique,politique monétaire
    Date: 2021
  22. By: Juncal Cunado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Pamplona, Spain); David Gabauer (Data Analysis Systems, Software Competence Center Hagenberg, Austria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the real interest rate transmission mechanism across the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom during a period of more than 200 years. Based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness methodology, the empirical results suggest that the magnitude of these international spillovers ranges between 30% and 75% across the sample period. Furthermore, it is shown that international interest rate spillovers increase during crisis periods, such as the two World Wars, the Great Depression of 1929, the 1980 and 1990 recessions, and the Great Financial Crisis of 2009. More interestingly, our findings illustrate the position of each of these eight countries as net transmitters or receivers of monetary policy shocks over time. Our analysis contributes to the debate on whether the conduct of monetary policy in a country should consider its international spillovers.
    Keywords: TVP-VAR, dynamic connectedness, extended joint connectedness, real interest rate dynamics
    JEL: C32 C52 E52
    Date: 2022–02
  23. By: Khalil, Elias
    Abstract: Friendship-and-love expresses musings about wellbeing—while “wellbeing” is the economist’s substantive satisfaction. Insofar as altruism is about wellbeing, it must differ from friendship-and-love. However, what is the basis of the difference between substantive satisfaction and friendship-and-love? The answer can be found in Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments, chapter 2: how “mutual sympathy” differs from “sympathy.” Smith scholars generally miss the uniqueness of “mutual sympathy” and, indeed, fold it under Smith’s “sympathy” (and “empathy”)—with one exception. Robert Sugden highlights the uniqueness of mutual sympathy. However, he goes to the other end, folding Smith’s “sympathy-and-empathy” under “mutual sympathy.” This paper aims to avoid the folding in either direction. While mutual sympathy originates love-based sociality (friendship-and-love), sympathy-and-empathy originates interest-based sociality (wellbeing that includes altruism). This paper concludes that friendship is neither reducible to altruism nor vice versa. Further, this paper distinguishes this problem from the question regarding the socialization of the individual.
    Date: 2021–12–17
  24. By: Claude Gamel (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: During more than thirty years of research in "philosophy and economics", I considered John Rawls' works non only as a valuable source of well-ordered concepts but also as a constant benchmark and therefore, I even ventured to make personal creations that Rawls himself would not have accepted. From my point of view, Rawlsian theory might be compared to a masterpiece of the flamboyant Gothic art, which impresses anyone with its extensive appearance; original techniques used at the time of cathedrals are very interesting and, later, they make some people want to innovate with their initial structure. Hence three steps in my research pathway as an economist: First, the time of discovering very stimulating ideas, then the time of comparing John Rawls' works with those of two other architects of justice in society (the economists Friedrich Hayek and Amartya Sen) and, finally, the time of manipulating Rawlsian concepts to try a more personal sketch of a sustainable liberalism.
    Abstract: Tout au long de plus de 30 ans de recherches en « philosophie économique », l'œuvre de John Rawls fut pour moi non seulement un précieux réservoir de concepts très bien ordonnés, mais aussi un constant point de repère, jusqu'à me risquer à quelques audaces personnelles que Rawls lui-même n'aurait pas acceptées. Je comparerais volontiers la théorie rawlsienne à un chef d'œuvre de l'art gothique au temps des cathédrales, qui, avant même d'impressionner par son allure d'ensemble, interpelle d'abord par l'originalité des techniques utilisées et donne envie, bien plus tard, d'innover à partir de la structure initiale. D'où trois étapes dans mon cheminement d'économiste : d'abord le temps de la découverte d'idées très fécondes, puis celui de la comparaison avec les œuvres de deux autres architectes de la justice en société (les économistes Friedrich Hayek et Amartya Sen) et enfin le temps de la manipulation de concepts rawlsiens pour tenter une esquisse plus personnelle d'un libéralisme soutenable.
    Keywords: philosophy and economics,John Rawls,discovery,comparisons,manipulations,philosophie économique,découverte,comparaisons,manipulations A12,D63,H20
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Nitin Kumar Bharti (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sutanuka Roy
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effects of judges' exposure to communal violence during early childhood on pretrial detention rates by exploiting novel administrative data on judgments and detailed resumes of judicial officers born during 1955-1991. Our baseline result is that judges exposed to communal violence between ages 0 and 6 years are 16% more prone to deny bail than the average judge, with the impact being stronger for the experience of riots between ages 3 and 6 years. The observed judicial stringency is driven by childhood exposure to riots with a higher duration of state-imposed lockdowns and low riot casualties.
    Keywords: Early-childhood,Pretrial Detention,Judicial Bias,Communal Violence Early-childhood,Communal Violence
    Date: 2022–01
  26. By: Duncan Webb (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: A large literature points towards the importance of early life circumstance in determining long-run human capital and wellbeing outcomes. This literature often justifies a focus on the very early years by citing the first 1000 days of life as a 'critical period' for child development, but this notion has rarely been directly tested. In a setting in which children are potentially subject to shocks in every year of their childhood, I estimate the impact of early life weather shocks on adult cognitive and socioemotional outcomes for individuals born in rural Indonesia between 1988 and 2000. There is a strong critical period for these shocks at age 2 for cognitive development, but no similar critical period for socioemotional development. The impacts of the shocks are likely to be taking place through nutritional and agricultural income channels. These impacts are initially latent, only appearing after age 15. I show suggestive evidence for dynamic complementarity in early life investments.
    Keywords: Critical period,Human capital,Early childhood development,Dynamic complementarity
    Date: 2022–01
  27. By: Aldunate, Felipe; Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: U.S. foreign policies during the Cold War are well documented, but less is known about the role of non-state actors and their impact on foreign firms. We use novel firm-level data from Chile to document a substantial decrease in financial relations with U.S. banks after socialist Salvador Allende took office in 1970. An analysis of links with banks from other countries reveals that part of the decrease was related to credit risk and another was specific to the U.S. Financial data from business reports and the stock market suggest that firms were mostly unaffected by the destruction of links with U.S. banks. Substitution of financial relations towards state-owned banks appears to be the key mechanism to explain these findings.
    Date: 2021–10–28
  28. By: Maud Simonet (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: After presenting the historical stages of the welfare reform and its moral, gendered, and racist foundations, this paper shows how the institutionalization of workfare, this unpaid and coerced form of labor, blurs the frontiers of wage labor and participates in a new regulation of the labor market that both devalues work and makes it invisible.
    Abstract: Cet article présente les étapes et les fondements moraux, genrés et racistes de la réforme de l'assistance inspirée par le workfare. Il montre ensuite les conséquences de l'institutionnalisation du travail gratuit et contraint, qui brouille les frontières du salariat et participe d'une nouvelle régulation du marché du travail, où ce dernier est invisibilisé et dévalorisé.
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Dolan, Lindsay; Kubinec, Robert (New York University Abu Dhabi); Nielson, Daniel; Zhang, Jack
    Abstract: Despite the harmful consequences of the U.S-China trade war, only a handful of firms took collective action to oppose it. To understand why, we implemented a field experiment in which we randomly provided detailed estimates of the costs of the trade war to U.S. company managers and measured their willingness to take actions either opposing or supporting the trade war. While overall our treatment counter-intuitively reduced opposition to the trade war, these effects were highly conditional on respondents' prior beliefs and the number of tariffs in their industry. The treatment increased opposition the most among subjects in industries with substantial tariffs who also thought the trade war was harmful. However, it decreased opposition among subjects who held neutral beliefs about the trade war. Finally, we find that a company’s political culture strongly predicts their political activity, suggesting political ideology and not just a company’s business interests shape corporate behavior.
    Date: 2021–11–08
  30. By: Piano, Ennio Emanuele (Middle Tennessee State University); Piano, Clara E.
    Abstract: This paper argues that concerns over opportunism affected the content and structure of Renaissance art contracts. Building on insights from the economic analysis of contracts, we first show that opportunism threatened the relationship between buyer—the patron—and seller—the painter—in Renaissance Italy. We then test the effect of opportunism on the contracting process for paintings against a novel data set on the content and structure of ninety documents corresponding to as many commissions. Our results provide evidence that concerns over opportunism had a systematic effect on the trading parties’ choice of how much and what to include in the contract governing their ex-change.
    Date: 2021–12–24
  31. By: Gücüm, Selin; Özesmi, Uygar
    Abstract: Humanity faces an imminent threat to its existence on this planet. The climate emergency and biodiversity crises are a direct result of our economic system. As the main instruments of our economic system, companies play a critical role in creating and solving this threat. Therefore, this book argues that if humanity is to exist on this planet, the economic system and companies, at its foundation, need to change. For this we propose an ecological and social purpose and impact driven company structure that uses profit to further the impact. A new law is needed and under this law all new and existing companies would need to structure themselves in this new way. If they cannot abide by this new law, then they will cease to exist by law, made by people, for people and this planet. This law would enable an economic system where companies instead of maximising their profits without regarding the environmental and social cost and damages, would maximize their impact, regenerating ecological and social resilience and integrity. Companies would not only have to “not harm the planet and people” but prove to be “benefitting the planet and the people” to exist and endure as an entity. Historically companies were not built on the sole purpose to maximize profit, and it does not have to be the essential component. When we look at the historical evolution of the company and company law in different geographies, from East to West, from Japan, to China, Turkey, Italy, Germany, France, the UK and the USA, we see that they were first given the right to exist to benefit society. However the rise of the chartered companies set the stage for the company as the exploiter. We see this clearly in the Dutch East India Company (VOC), East India Company, Compagnie des Indes Orientales and Hudson’s Bay Company. Unfortunately they are seen as the precursors of today's companies. Of course there have been counter measures to exploitation such as Anti-Trust Laws against Trusts being formed where and when chartered companies left the stage. Additionally, there were reform efforts against the “exploiting company” such as “Polluter Pays Principle”, the value based approaches – “Creating Stakeholder Value”, degrowth, solidarity economics, commons movement and the critique of companies, P2P – Peer to Peer, Social Enterprises and Prosumer Economy. However these reform efforts were not sufficient as we can see in the deepening of the climate emergency and biodiversity crises. Therefore a new company law is needed. As seen in our historical tour of company laws, almost all company laws in all nations have become extremely similar, therefore as an example we have amended the Turkish Company Code to reflect what we propose globally, a new company that maximises impact and optimises profit.
    Date: 2022–01–31
  32. By: Kristian Blickle (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University); Stephan Luck (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: We use the German Crisis of 1931, one of the largest bank runs in financial history, to study how depositors behave in the absence of deposit insurance. We find that banks lose on average around 25% of their overall deposit funding during the run and that there is an equal outflow of retail and non-financial wholesale deposits from both ex-post failing and surviving banks. This implies that regular depositors are unable to identify failing banks. In contrast, the interbank market precisely identifies which banks will fail: the interbank market collapses for failing banks entirely but it continues to function for surviving banks, which can borrow from other banks in response to deposit outflows. We argue that since regular depositors appear uninformed it is unlikely that deposit insurance would exacerbate moral hazard. Instead, interbank depositors are best positioned for providing "discipline" via short-term funding.
    Keywords: financial crises, banks, Germany
    JEL: G01 G21 N20 N24
    Date: 2021–12
  33. By: Anne Duquerroy; Clément Mazet-Sonilhac; Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier; Daniel Paravisini
    Abstract: Using micro-data on bank-SME relationships in France, we show that banks specialize locally by industry and that this specialization shapes the equilibrium amount of lending. We use the reallocation of firms’ accounts from closed branches to nearby branches of the same bank, as a source of quasi-random variation in the match between a firm’s industry and the industry of specialization of its bank. Reallocation is associated with a significant and persistent drop in credit, the magnitude of which doubles for firms transferred to a branch less specialized in their industry.
    Keywords: Bank Specialization, SMEs, Relationship Banking, Branch Closures
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2022
  34. By: Cisotto, Elisa; Meli, Eleonora; Cavrini, Giulia
    Abstract: In this article we explore the last two decades of changes in the demography of grandparenthood in Italy, by means of a set of measures: the proportion of men and women becoming grandparents by age and time, the age at transition to grandparenthood and its crossing with a set of life events and the length of grandparenthood. We used data from the four waves of the Survey on Family and Social Subjects carried out by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 1998, 2003, 2009 and 2016. Overall, the median age at which half of the population over 35 is made up of grandparents moved forward by at least 5 years during the two observed decades. The postponement of grandparenthood is evident in middle age: between 55 and 64 the ratio of grandparents to non-grandparents decreased significantly by about 10 per cent. Overall, among people who had ever had children, the median age at the transition to grandparenthood advanced by three years from 1998 to 2016, both for men (59 to 62) and women (54 to 57). This difference is greater than that observed for age at parenthood and equal to the advantage gained in terms of life expectancy at age 60. Thus, although grandparenthood has been postponed over the last two decades in Italy, the great gains in remaining life expectancy result in grandparent-grandchildren lifetime not being reduced.
    Date: 2021–10–14
  35. "Designing Wartime Economic Controls: Productivity and Firm Dynamics in the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry, 1937–1939" Abstract In 1937, the Japanese government accelerated the expansion of its military expenditure and began to impose controls on the economy to maintain the balance of international payments. The controls were developed through trial and error. The cotton spinning industry was one of the industries most deeply affected by these controls. Initially, the government simply reduced the allocation of foreign exchange for raw cotton imports. However, because this measure prevented the export of cotton products, especially to countries outside the yen bloc, a new scheme of control, the “export–import link system,†was adopted from the second half of 1938. This scheme was intentionally designed to give firms incentives to export to non-yen bloc countries and to incorporate elements of market mechanism into economic control. Analyzing firm-level data, we find that under the link system, firms with higher labor productivity tended to grow faster, as occurs under a market economy. This relationship was not observed during the early stage of the control. This difference is reflected in the pattern of the change in aggregate labor productivity. Under the export–import link system, the positive reallocation effect was substantial, similar to a market economy, whereas it was almost zero under the early controls. These findings indicate that the design of controls matters for the performance of controlled economies.
    By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
  36. By: Devesh Rustagi (School of Economics, University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: Does self-governance, a hallmark of democratic societies, foster or erode norms of generalized cooperation? Does this effect persist, and if so, why? I investigate these questions using a natural experiment in Switzerland. In the middle-ages, the absence of an heir resulted in the extinction of a prominent noble dynasty. As a result, some Swiss municipalities became self-governing, whereas the others remained under feudalism for another 600 years. Evidence from a behavioral experiment, World Values Survey, and Swiss Household Panel consistently shows that individuals from historically self-governing municipalities exhibit stronger norms of cooperation today. Referenda data on voter-turnout, women’s suffrage, and minority citizenship, allow me to trace these effects on individually costly and socially beneficial actions for over 150 years. Furthermore, norms of cooperation map into prosocial behaviors like charitable giving and environmental protection. Uniquely, Switzerland tracks every family’s place of origin in registration data, which I use to demonstrate persistence from cultural transmission in a context of historically low migration.
    Keywords: Self-governance, norms of cooperation, cultural transmission, referendum, public goods game, Switzerland
    Date: 2022–04
  37. By: Han, Jeehoon; Kaiser, Caspar (University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We use large-scale diary data from a representative sample of Americans to proxy welfare at the level of individual activities. We make three contributions. First, we examine the association between individual activities and happiness, and show how this association has changed over time. Compared to 1985, domestic work and social care produce more happiness today. Watching TV produces less happiness today than it used to. Second, we combine activity-level data on happiness and time allocation to construct a measure of ‘time-weighted happiness’. We then analyse historical trends in this measure across population groups, particularly gender. We observe that, over the last 35 years, women’s time-weighted happiness has improved significantly relative to men’s. This trend is largely driven by gendered shifts in time allocation, rather than heterogenous trends in the enjoyability of individual activities. Our result is in stark contrast to previous work which showed a decline in women’s relative wellbeing. To explain this, our third contribution is to compare the determinants of life satisfaction – a global measure on which most previous work is built – with our measure of time-weighted happiness. Time-weighted happiness and life satisfaction turn out to only be weakly correlated. Moreover, although we obtain strong associations of income and employment status with life satisfaction, no such associations can be observed for time-weighted happiness. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between happiness as experienced in time and more global wellbeing measures. Finally, we verify the robustness our results by replicating them in data from the United Kingdom and show that our results are robust to alternative assumptions about how people use happiness scales.
    Date: 2021–10–03
  38. By: Uri Dadush
    Abstract: The author is grateful to Bruegel colleagues, especially Marek Dabrowski, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff, for useful comments. The world trading system is reeling from the trade war between China and the United States, the disabling of the World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlement Understanding and repeated rule-breaking by WTO members. This does not mean the end of the post-war system, but it is being transformed into a more complex, politicised...
    Date: 2022–02
  39. By: van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Groningen); Janys, Lena (University of Bonn); Christensen, Kaare (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: We examine the effects of a major national schooling reform in Denmark in 1903, opening up access to secondary and higher education for poorer and for female children, on mortality, using individual-level records of Danish twins. We digitized education out-comes from historical registers and augmented these with data we digitized on parental socioeconomic status. The study design is combined with an exogenous indicator of economic conditions at birth to investigate whether education mitigates mortality effects of adverse conditions at birth. We find that the reform reduces mortality rates among males, notably those with a middle-class family background. Also, secondary education is less beneficial if conditions at birth are adverse. In general, the reform effect does not seem to be driven by improved information on healthy living but rather by a shift in social classes among the inflow into higher education.
    Keywords: health, inequality, schooling, Correlated Frailty Model, twins
    JEL: I1 I14 I20 N33 C41
    Date: 2022–02
  40. By: Cárdenas, María Kathia; Cazzulino, Pablo; Popkin, Barry; Miranda, J. Jaime
    Abstract: The production and sales of carbonated soda have doubled in the last two decades in Peru. Such an increase in availability and access to carbonated soda, a major category of SSBs, presents a public health risk. In Peru, 70% of adults are either overweight or obese, and the existing health care system struggles to provide adequate patient care for all the related non-communicable diseases. Peru has had a tax, called ISC tax or “Impuesto Selectivo al Consumo”, of 17% for carbonated soda since 1999. In May 2018, the Peruvian government raised the ISC tax to 25%, an eight percentage points increase, for SSBs that contains 6g of sugar or more per 100 ml to fight against rising obesity and diabetes rates. Then, in June 2019, the ISC was modified for SSBs that contain 0.5 grams/100 ml of sugar or less. In September 2021, the upper range of the threshold was reduced from 6 to 5 grams per 100 ml, to match the requirements of the recently introduced front-of-package labeling Law, technically named Law to promote healthy eating among children and adolescents. In this article, we discuss the evolution of the SSBs tax in Peru since its inception, including its overlap with front-of-package labeling, in order to understand the historical context of taxation for prevention purposes and inform future robust monitoring and evaluation of the impact of such taxes, much needed to timely inform decision-makers.
    Date: 2021–09–25
  41. By: Mark T. Kanazawa (Carleton College)
    Date: 2022–02
  42. By: Lindberg, John C. H.; Archer, Denali
    Abstract: The term ‘radiophobia’ has been a cornerstone in the nuclear discourse over the past 70 years, and has been used extensively to dismiss fears of radiation as being emotional overreactions to a risk that is actuarially very low, stemming from public ignorance. Despite its longevity in nuclear discourse, little attention has been afforded to the term, its history, and the factors that underpin the extreme divergence in risk perception that the term de facto refers to, threatening to severely hamper any efforts to redress said divergence. This article will explore these factors, mostly sociopsychological in nature, and conclude that the powerful affective imagery associated with radiation, compounded by various heuristics and biases, renders public discomfort with ionising radiation from nuclear power plants rational – despite the actuarial safety record of nuclear energy globally. The article will note that. whilst its often ostracising usage towards the public should render the term obsolete, radiophobia can still be regarded as a useful concept to try and explain the extreme risk perception divergence that exists between nuclear experts and the public. In order for a more constructive discourse, a paradigm shift that acknowledges the complex historical and sociopsychological factors that have shaped radiation into becoming a uniquely feared process will be required. Such an acknowledgement will likely be a prerequisite for any efforts towards normalising humanity’s relationship with radiation, and would require considerable changes in communication practices.
    Date: 2021–12–30
  43. By: Harkness, Susan
    Abstract: This study examines how earnings penalties to motherhood combine with the cost of partner absence to affect single mothers’ economic well-being. Using 25-years of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1990 to 2015 and fixed-effect models with individual-specific slopes I find that, after adjusting for needs, the transition to parenthood is as strongly linked to reduced income as partner absence. Comparing how these different routes to single motherhood affect economic outcomes, I show that previously married mothers face larger income penalties than those who were single when their first child was born because they see larger declines in their own earnings following childbirth. The results illustrate how marriage and parenthood, alongside partner absence, shape the economic prospects of single mother families, and highlight the importance of reducing gender inequalities in the labor market for improving single mothers’ economic well-being.
    Date: 2022–02–11
  44. By: Daniel Levy (Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, Israel; Department of Economics, Emory University, US; ICEA, Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis; ISET, TSU, Georgia); Tamir Mayer (Graduate School of Business Administration, Bar-Ilan University, Israel); Alon Raviv (Graduate School of Business Administration, Bar-Ilan University, Israel)
    Abstract: We study the economics and finance scholars' reaction to the 2008 financial crisis using machine learning language analyses methods of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and dynamic topic modelling algorithms, to analyze the texts of 14,270 NBER working papers covering the 1999–2016 period. We find that academic scholars as a group were insufficiently engaged in crises' studies before 2008. As the crisis unraveled, however, they switched their focus to studying the crisis, its causes, and consequences. Thus, the scholars were “slow-to-see,” but they were “fast-to-act.” Their initial response to the ongoing Covid-19 crisis is consistent with these conclusions.
    Keywords: Financial crisis, Economic Crisis, Great recession, NBER working papers, LDA textual analysis, Topic modeling, Dynamic Topic Modeling, Machine learning
    JEL: E32 E44 E50 F30 G01 G20
    Date: 2022–02
  45. By: Library, Cornell University
    Abstract: The British Library holding of Kinh tế Việt Nam - Thăng trầm và đột phá (published by NXB Chính trị Quốc gia Sự thật, Hà Nội).
    Date: 2022–01–08
  46. By: Xabier Garcia-Fuente
    Abstract: Korpi and Palme (1998) famously suggested the existence of a Paradox of Redistribution: although programs targeted to the poor may be more redistributive per unit of expenditure, universal programs reduce distributive conflicts, leading to bigger, more egalitarian welfare states. However, recent works question the existence of this trade-o?. My paper adds a dynamic, long-term perspective to this literature: it analyzes the relationship between the progressivity and the redistributive impact of social transfers in 53 rich and middle-income countries, using microdata from 479 household surveys harmonized by LIS. My results show that the relationship between the redistribution obtained by social transfers and their progressivity is non-monotonic and is contingent on initial policy positions: welfare states that focused on the poor have grown bigger and more egalitarian by moving up the income ladder to include richer constituencies, while welfare states that focus on the rich are unable to reach down the income ladder and remain stuck at very low levels of redistribution. This reflects how social policies shape distributive conflicts: expanding upwards in the income distribution narrows the gap between contributors and beneficiaries, easing distributive conflict and allowing welfare state expansion. In contrast, expanding downwards draws a clear gap between contributors and beneficiaries, making welfare state politics zero-sum. This fits with evidence on the long-term evolution of universal welfare states – as they grew from means-tested cores to earnings-related universalism – and countries with elitist social policies, exemplified by Latin American countries that remain captured by the middle classes and the rich. In short, my results reinforce the idea that increases in redistribution are driven by status-preserving considerations – not by attempts at soaking the rich.
    Date: 2021–10
  47. By: Jahani, Eaman; Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Bailey, Michael; Eckles, Dean
    Abstract: Social networks play a predominant role in determining how information spreads between individuals. Previous works suggest that long ties, which connect people who do not share any mutual contact, provide access to valuable information on economic opportunities. However, no population-scale study has determined how long ties relate to economic outcomes and how such ties are formed. Using a novel dataset from Facebook, we reconstruct the network of interactions between users and we uncover a strong relationship between the share of long ties and economic outcomes at the local level in the United States and in Mexico. Administrative units with a higher proportion of long ties have higher incomes, higher economic mobility, lower unemployment rates and higher wealth, even after adjusting for potential confounders of these outcomes. In contrast to the weak tie theory, we find that having stronger long ties is associated with better economic outcomes. Furthermore, we discover that users with a higher proportion of long ties are more likely to have migrated between US states, to have transferred to a different high school, and to have attended college outside of their home state. Taken together, these results suggest that long ties contribute to economic prosperity and highlight the role played by disruptive life events in the formation of these ties.
    Date: 2022–01–08
  48. By: Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo; Tedeschi, Gian Luca
    Abstract: We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citizenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors-conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs-that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade.
    Keywords: Citizenship,Trust,Slave Trade,Migration,Ethnicity,Conflict,Kinship,Witchcraft
    JEL: J15 K37 N57 O15 Z13
    Date: 2022
  49. By: Palma, J. G.
    Abstract: This paper analyses events in financial markets since the 2008 financial crisis in both the developed and the developing worlds, giving especial attention to the processes of ‘financialisation’; that is, to the combined effect of the growing size and dominance of the financial sector relative to the non-financial sector, and the diversification towards financial activities in non-financial corporations. The main conclusion is that we are paying the price (and a huge one) for two related phenomena; one belongs to the realm of ideology and knowledge, the other to ‘power play’.
    Keywords: manias, panics, financialisation, QE, excess liquidity, ‘disconnect’ between the financial and the real worlds, emerging markets, Latin America, Asia, Keynes, Kindleberger, Minsky, Buchanan
    JEL: E22 D70 D81 E51 F02 F21 F32 F40 F63 G15 G20 G30 L51 N20 O16
    Date: 2022–02–11
  50. By: Simionescu, Mihaela; Schneider, Nicolas; Gavurova, Beata
    Abstract: Considering the actual debate nuclear vs renewable that divides the green transition of the EU member states, this paper investigates the dynamic interactions between two sources of decarbonized energy (renewables and nuclear) and economic growth for three distinct economies: France, Spain, and Germany, all differing in their respective long-run nuclear planning. A complex methodological framework is employed to consider stationary (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips-Perron test, Dickey-Fuller test, Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock test, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, Zivot and Andrews test with structural break), cointegration (Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration, Gregory and Hansen cointegration test with breaks based on regime-trend shifts), long-run convergence (Vector Error Correction Model), causality (Granger causality test, Toda-Yamamoto non-causality test, and variance analysis (Impulse Response Functions) Empirical results for the period 1983–2019 fail to support the existence of statistical causality between renewable energy use and economic growth in France and Spain, which is congruent with the “neutral hypothesis”. Besides, while a weak one-way link is revealed from renewable energy use to GDP in Germany only, economic growth is found to substantially trigger nuclear energy consumption in Spain but not vice versa, thus corroborating the “growth hypothesis”. Accordingly, country-specific insights are provided to deploy low-carbon sectoral facilities in Spain, enhance the channels of radioactive waste treatment in France, and secure the nuclear phase-out in Germany.
    Keywords: cointegration; economic growth; Granger causality; nuclear energy consumption; Toda-Yamamoto causality
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022–01–17

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