nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒02‒28
39 papers chosen by

  1. Pandemic Recession and Helicopter Money: Venice, 1629--1631 By Charles Goodhart; Donato Masciandaro; Stefano Ugolini
  2. The Long-Run Impacts of Mexican-American School Desegregation By Antman, Francisca M.; Cortes, Kalena E.
  3. Lessons from the Early Establishment of Banking Supervision in Italy (1926-1936) By Dario Pellegrino; Marco Molteni
  4. The late emerging consensus among American economists on antitrust laws in the 2nd New Deal (1935-1941) By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  5. The effect of nutritional status on historical infectious disease morbidity: evidence from the London Foundling Hospital, 1892-1919 By Schneider, Eric B.
  6. Oil price shocks and conflict escalation: onshore versus offshore By Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Tesei, Andrea
  7. ASEAN and African relations: towards a renewed partnership? By Kohnert, Dirk
  8. Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions By Mark Setterfield; Robert A Blecker
  9. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy By Oscar Jorda; Martin Kornejew; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor
  10. Rewealthization in 21st Century Western Countries: The Defining Trend of the Socioeconomic Squeeze of the Middle Class By Louis Chauvel; Eyal Bar-Haim; Anne Hartung; Emily Murphy
  11. De la Grande Guerre à la National Recovery Administration (1917-1935) : Les arguments en faveur d'une concurrence régulée dans les États-Unis de l'entre-deux-guerres By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  12. Sicilian Sulphur and Mafia: Resources, Working Conditions and the Practice of Violence By Ciccarelli, Carlo; Dalmazzo, Alberto; Razzolini, Tiziano
  13. Segregation and the Initial Provision of Water in the United States By Brian Beach; John Parman; Martin H. Saavedra
  14. Omnia Juncta in Uno: Foreign Powers and Trademark Protection in Shanghai's Concession Era By Laura Alfaro; Cathy Ge Bao; Maggie X. Chen; Junjie Hong; Claudia Steinwender
  15. How Law and Economics Was Marketed in a Hostile World : l’institutionnalisation du champ aux États-Unis de l’immédiat après-guerre aux années Reagan By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  16. Monetary Policies, US influence and other Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Japan By Allen, David; Mizuno, Hiro
  17. For Want of a Cup: The Rise of Tea in England and the Impact of Water Quality on Mortality By Antman, Francisca M.
  18. Movilidad entre generaciones en países africanos: evidencia para la educación By Claver Sanz, Raúl
  19. The Historical Racial Regime and Racial Inequality in Poverty in the American South By Regina Baker
  20. Slowing Women's Labor Force Participation: The Role of Income Inequality By Stefania Albanesi; María José Prados
  21. Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States By Mohaddes, K.; Ng, R. N. C.; Pesaran, M. H.; Raissi, M.; Yang, J-C.
  22. Estimating the Effects of Milk Inspections on Infant and Child Mortality, 1880-1910 By Anderson, D. Mark; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; McKelligott, Michael; Rees, Daniel I.
  23. From Manchuria to post-war Japan: knowledge transfer through in-house training at the South Manchuria Railway Company (SMR) By Nishizaki, Sumiyo
  24. Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility By Clemens, Michael A.
  25. Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: evidence from eight countries By Broadberry, Stephen; Gardner, Leigh
  26. Assessment of the impact of trade openness on economic growth: Case of Sub-Saharan Africa By Ali Sekkach
  27. The Legacy of Authoritarianism in a Democracy By Kumar Sur, Pramod
  28. Econometrics at Harvard By Vincent Carret; Michaël Assous
  29. The Common Currency Effect on International Trade: Evidence from an Accidental Monetary Union By Roger Vicquéry
  30. The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in England By Leander Heldring; James A. Robinson; Parker J. Whitfill
  31. Making Money By Gary B. Gorton; Chase P. Ross; Sharon Y. Ross
  32. Depopulation in the Apennines in the 20th century: an empirical investigation By Riccardo Lucchetti; Gabriele Morettini
  33. Conflict and child mortality in Mali: A synthetic control analysis By Masset, Edoardo
  34. Do Conservative Central Bankers Weaken the Chances of Conservative Politicians? By Maxime Menuet; Hugo Oriola; Patrick Villieu
  35. L'inflation : phénomène durable ou transitoire ? Un aperçu historique pour comprendre le temps présent By Jean-Luc Gaffard
  36. Keynes's Treatise on Probability 100 Years Later: Small vs. large worlds and closed vs. open systems By Davis, John B.
  37. Double movements and disembedded economies: a response to Richard Sandbrook By Goodwin, Geoff
  38. A Brief History of Transportation Policies and Institutions By Deakin, Elizabeth
  39. ¿El fracaso de la movilidad durante la revolución industrial? Algunas conclusiones sobre las migraciones interiores en España antes de 1960 desde la obra de Jordi Nadal By Javier Silvestre

  1. By: Charles Goodhart (LEREPS); Donato Masciandaro (LEREPS); Stefano Ugolini (LEREPS)
    Abstract: We analyse the money-financed fiscal stimulus implemented in Venice during the famine and plague of 1629--31, which was equivalent to a 'net-worth helicopter money' strategy -- a monetary expansion generating losses to the issuer. We argue that the strategy aimed at reconciling the need to subsidize inhabitants suffering from containment policies with the desire to prevent an increase in long-term government debt, but it generated much monetary instability and had to be quickly reversed. This episode highlights the redistributive implications of the design of macroeconomic policies and the role of political economy factors in determining such designs.
    Date: 2022–01
  2. By: Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Cortes, Kalena E. (Texas A&M University)
    Abstract: We present the first quantitative analysis of the impact of ending de jure segregation of Mexican-American school children in the United States by examining the effects of the 1947 Mendez v. Westminster court decision on long-run educational attainment for Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in California. Our identification strategy relies on comparing individuals across California counties that vary in their likelihood of segregating and across birth cohorts that vary in their exposure to the Mendez court ruling based on school start age. Results point to a significant increase in educational attainment for Hispanics who were fully exposed to school desegregation.
    Keywords: Mexican-American, school desegregation, Mendez v. Westminster
    JEL: I24 I26 J15 J18
    Date: 2022–01
  3. By: Dario Pellegrino (Bank of Italy); Marco Molteni (Pembroke College, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: In this paper we describe the establishment and assess the relevance of banking supervision in Italy between 1926 and 1936. This case is particularly interesting from the international perspective, Italy having been the first European country to assign substantial supervision to its central bank, a few years before the 1929 crisis. Notwithstanding insufficient regulation and a light touch concerning the four major mixed banks, we document considerable enforcement of the law, which went beyond the initial provisions, thanks to the rather proactive supervisory approach adopted by the Bank of Italy. We point out a significant impact on the banking system: systematic archival analysis reveals that supervision fostered capital accumulation and mitigated lending concentration. Preliminary evidence suggests that supervision information enhanced effective lending of last resort during the crisis. Our educated guess is that, in the absence of the new supervisory set-up, the severity of the financial turmoil in the early 1930s in Italy would have been much fiercer, especially for small and medium-sized banks.
    Keywords: banking supervision, capital requirements, banking history, lending of last resort
    JEL: N20 N24
    Date: 2021–10
  4. By: Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: The article presents the late convergence process from American economists that led them to support a strong antitrust enforcement in the Second New Deal despite their long-standing distrust toward this legislation. It presents the path from which institutionalist economists, on the one side, and members of the First Chicago School, on the other one, have converged on supporting the President F.D. Roosevelt administration towards reinvigorating antitrust law enforcement as of 1938, putting aside their initial preferences for a regulated competition model or for a classical liberalism. The appointment of Thurman Arnold at the head of the Antitrust Division in 1938 gave the impetus to a vigorous antitrust enforcement. The 1945 Alcoa decision crafted by Judge Hand embodied the results of this convergence: in this perspective, the purpose of antitrust law enforcement does consist in preventing improper uses of economic power.
    Keywords: Economic Power,Institutional Economics,Antitrust,Efficiency,Chicago School,New Deal
    Date: 2021–06–16
  5. By: Schneider, Eric B.
    Abstract: There is a complex inter-relationship between nutrition and morbidity in human health. Many diseases reduce nutritional status, but on the other hand, having low nutritional status is also known to make individuals more susceptible to certain diseases and to more serious illness. Modern evidence on these relationships, determined after the introduction of antibiotics and vaccines, may not be applicable to historical settings before these medical technologies were available. This paper uses a historical cohort study based on records from the London Foundling Hospital to determine the causal effect of nutritional status of children, proxied by weight- and height-for-age Z-scores, on the odds of contracting five infectious diseases of childhood (measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox and whooping cough) and on sickness duration from these diseases. I identify a causal effect by exploiting the randomisation of environmental conditions as foundling children were removed from their original homes, then fostered with families in counties nearby London and later returned to the Foundling Hospital’s main site in London. I find no effect of nutritional status on the odds of contracting the five diseases, but I do find a historically important and statistically significant effect of nutritional status on sickness duration for measles and mumps. These findings have three implications. First, historical incidence of these diseases was unrelated to nutritional status, meaning that poor nutritional status during famines or during the Colombian Exchange did not affect the spread of epidemics. However, undernutrition in these events may have exacerbated measles severity. Second, improving nutritional status in the past 150 years would have reduced the severity of measles and mumps infections but not affect the decline in whooping cough mortality. Finally, selective culling effects from measles would be larger than those from whooping cough since whooping cough severity was not correlated with underlying nutritional status.
    Keywords: morbidity; nutritional status; infectious diseases; health transition; T&F deal
    JEL: N01 N30
    Date: 2022–01–10
  6. By: Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Tesei, Andrea
    Abstract: We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls escalate conflict in onshore-rich countries, while they de-escalate conflict in offshore-rich countries. We use a model to illustrate how these opposite effects can be explained by a fighting capacity mechanism, whereby the government can use offshore oil income to increase its fighting capacity, while onshore oil may be looted by oppositional groups to finance a rebellion. We provide empirical evidence supporting this interpretation: we find that oil price windfalls increase both the number and strength of active rebel groups in onshore-rich countries, while they strengthen the government in offshore-rich ones.
    Keywords: conflict; natural resources
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2022–02–01
  7. By: Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg)
    Abstract: ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : The ASEAN summit of October 2021 showed the increased geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific realm. Today ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in Asia and the second largest worldwide behind the EU. The establishment of the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership (NAASP) more than 15 years before (2005) aimed to revive the Bandung spirit of the non-aligned movement of 1955. This time with a stronger focus on economic ties. In 2013 these countries counted around 620 million inhabitants or 8.8% of the world population. They wanted to fight colonialism and neocolonialism by promoting Afro-Asiatic economic and cultural cooperation. Almost all member countries gained sovereignty and political independence by the 1960s and 1970s, with the exception of Palestine. However, the aftermath of the Bandung conference also promoted negative developments, including the polarization of Asian countries, the strengthening of political authoritarianism and regional interventions. In addition, most countries continued to grapple with economic and political challenges, including poverty, debt burdens, backwardness, ignorance, disease and environmental degradation. Their access to the markets of the industrialized countries also remained limited. At the global level, the NAASP received little attention so far. Despite the longstanding rhetoric of Asia-Africa solidarity, Asia and Africa still lack formal institutional and trade links. Although interregional trade increased, Africa remained a small part of ASEAN with only around 2% of its total market. The most important trading countries of ASEAN with Africa were Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore, while South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were the largest African import markets. RÉSUMÉ : 'Les relations commerciales entre l'ASEAN [ANASE] et l'Afrique: vers un partenariat renouvelé ?' --- Le sommet de l'ASEAN d'octobre 2021 a montré l'importance géopolitique accrue de la region indo-pacifique. Aujourd'hui, l'ANASE est l'organisation régionale la plus performante d'Asie et la deuxième au monde derrière l'UE. La création du Nouveau partenariat stratégique Asie-Afrique (NAASP) plus de 15 ans auparavant (2005) visait à raviver l'esprit de Bandung du mouvement des non-alignés de 1955. Cette fois en mettant davantage l'accent sur les liens économiques. En 2013, ces pays comptaient environ 620 millions d'habitants soit 8,8% de la population mondiale. Ils voulaient combattre le colonialisme et le néocolonialisme en promouvant la coopération économique et culturelle afro-asiatique. Presque tous les pays membres ont acquis leur souveraineté et leur indépendance politique dans les années 1960 et 1970, à l'exception de la Palestine. Cependant, les conséquences de la conférence de Bandung ont également favorisé des développements négatifs, notamment la polarisation des pays asiatiques, le renforcement de l'autoritarisme politique et les interventions régionales. En outre, la plupart des pays ont continué à faire face à des défis économiques et politiques, notamment la pauvreté, le fardeau de la dette, le retard, l'ignorance, la maladie et la dégradation de l'environnement. Leur accès aux marchés des pays industrialisés restait également limité. Au niveau mondial, le NAASP a reçu peu d'attention jusqu'à présent. Malgré la rhétorique de longue date de la solidarité Asie-Afrique, l'Asie et l'Afrique manquent encore de liens institutionnels et commerciaux formels. Bien que le commerce interrégional ait augmenté, l'Afrique est restée une petite partie de l'ASEAN avec seulement environ 2% de son marché total. Les principaux pays commerçants de l'ASEAN avec l'Afrique étaient la Thaïlande, l'Indonésie et Singapour, tandis que l'Afrique du Sud, le Nigéria et l'Égypte étaient les plus grands marchés d'importation africains.
    Date: 2021–11–15
  8. By: Mark Setterfield; Robert A Blecker
    Abstract: This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and firms. The resulting account is consistent with the main stylized facts that characterize the evolution of the US PC since 1948: the disappearance and subsequent reappearance of a ‘standard’ PC (relating the level of the inflation rate, not the change in this rate, to the rate of unemployment); and the flattening of the PC since the 1990s.
    Keywords: Phillips Curve, inflation, unemployment, natural rate hypothesis, bargaining power, institutions
    JEL: E12 E24 E25 E31 N12
    Date: 2022–02
  9. By: Oscar Jorda (University of California, Davis); Martin Kornejew (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Alan M. Taylor (University of California, Davis)
    Abstract: What are the macroeconomic consequences of business credit booms? Are they as dangerous as household credit booms? If not, why not? We answer these questions by collecting data on non-financial business liabilities (primarily bank loans and corporate bonds) for 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. Unlike household credit, business credit booms are rarely followed by macroeconomic hangovers. Data on debt renegotiation costs—instrumented by a country’s legal tradition—show that frictions to debt resolution make recessions deeper and longer—an important factor in explaining the differences with household credit booms.
    Keywords: corporate debt, business cycles, local projections.
    JEL: E44 G32 G33 N20
    Date: 2021–10–15
  10. By: Louis Chauvel; Eyal Bar-Haim; Anne Hartung; Emily Murphy
    Abstract: Over the last three decades, the wealth-to-income ratio (WIR) in many Western countries, particularly in Europe and North America, increased by a factor of two. This represents a defining empirical trend: a rewealthization (from the French repatrimonialisation) – or the comeback of (inherited) wealth primacy since the mid ‘90s. For the sociology of social stratification, “occupational classes” based on jobs worked must now be understood within a context of wealth-based domination. In this paper, we first illustrate important empirical features of an era of rising WIR. We then outline the theory of rewealthization as a major factor of class transformations in relation to regimes stabilized in the post-WWII industrial area. Compared to the period where wealth became a secondary resource for a middle-class lifestyle afforded by education and labor income for both men and women, rewealthization has steepened the vertical climb to resource “abundance” (feng) in society while masking social reproduction.
    Date: 2021–12
  11. By: Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'expérience de l'économie de guerre a renforcé aux États-Unis l'influence d'arguments en faveur d'une concurrence organisée. Étendant les prescriptions du management scientifique des firmes à l'ensemble de l'économie, cette approche visait leur coordination par des échanges d'informations. Cette dernière était vue à la fois comme une nécessité en termes d'efficacité économique et de réponse aux fluctuations cycliques. Une telle perspective conduisait à réduire drastiquement la portée des règles de concurrence.Cependant, des propositions faites lors de la crise de 1929 conduisirent à reproduire en temps de paix l'expérience de l'économie de guerre au risque de mener l'économie américaine à une cartellisation sous l'égide de l'État fédéral.Elles furent rejetées par le Président Hoover pourtant défenseur dans les années1920 d'un modèle de concurrence régulée. Ces projets furent paradoxalement repris par le Président Roosevelt dans le cadre du premier New Deal. Cet article traite des arguments qui furent avancés pour s'abstraire des règles de concurrence et explique pourquoi l'administration démocrate décida finalement de revenir à une activation résolue du Sherman Act
    Keywords: économie de guerre,cartellisation,règles de concurrence,management scientifique,échanges d'information
    Date: 2021–03–04
  12. By: Ciccarelli, Carlo (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Dalmazzo, Alberto (University of Siena); Razzolini, Tiziano (University of Siena)
    Abstract: This paper reconsiders the nexus between the abundance of resources and the origins of Sicilian mafia by exploiting a new set of historical data on the Sicilian sulphur industry in the late 19th century, obtained from official reports of the Royal Corps of Mining Engineers at the municipal level. We find that the impact of local production on mafia was smaller -or nil- in the areas richest in sulphur. We also find that mechanization in the extraction process was associated with lower incidence of mafia. Taken together, our findings suggest that larger lodes encouraged better and more orderly working conditions for the miners, possibly reducing physical and psychic strain and, consequently, inclination to violence.
    Keywords: Mafia, sulphur, working conditions
    JEL: H75 J28 K42
    Date: 2021–12
  13. By: Brian Beach; John Parman; Martin H. Saavedra
    Abstract: U.S. cities invested heavily in water and sewer infrastructure throughout the late 19th and early 20th centuries. These investments improved public health and quality of life by helping U.S. cities control typhoid fever and other waterborne diseases. We show that segregated cities invested in water infrastructure earlier but were slower to reach universal access and slower to eliminate typhoid fever. We develop a theoretical model that illustrates how segregation, by facilitating the exclusion of Black households from water and sewer systems, explains these seemingly paradoxical findings.
    JEL: H4 J1 N3
    Date: 2022–01
  14. By: Laura Alfaro; Cathy Ge Bao; Maggie X. Chen; Junjie Hong; Claudia Steinwender
    Abstract: We investigate how firms adapt to trademark protection, an extensively used but underexamined form of IP protection, by exploring a historical precedent: China's trademark law of 1923---an unanticipated and disapproved response to end foreign privileges in China. By exploiting a unique, newly digitized firm-employee-level dataset from Shanghai in 1872-1941, we show that the trademark law shaped firm dynamics on all sides of trademark conflicts. The law spurred growth and brand investment among Western firms with greater dependence on trademark protection. In contrast, Japanese businesses, which had frequently been accused of counterfeiting, experienced contractions while attempting to build their own brands after the law. The trademark law also led to new linkages with domestic agents, both within and outside the boundaries of Western firms, and the growth of Chinese intermediaries. At the aggregate level, trademark-intensive industries witnessed a net growth in employment and the number of product categories. A comparison with previous attempts by foreign powers---such as extraterritorial rights, bilateral treaties, and an unenforced trademark code---shows that those alternative institutions were ultimately unsuccessful.
    JEL: D2 F2 N4 O1 O3
    Date: 2022–02
  15. By: Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal)
    Abstract: This article discusses the institutionalization of the field of Law and Economics in the United States from the post-war period to the Reagan administration. It emphasizes the role of pro-market corporate foundations in the development of Law and Economics. It analyses individual and collective trajectories, including research projects, judges training programs, and leading academics contributions and judicial and administrative careers. It ultimately focuses on the impact of this institutionalization on judging methods.
    Abstract: Cet article traite de l'institutionnalisation du champ de la Law and Economics aux Etats-Unis de l'après-guerre aux années Reagan. Il met l'accent sur le rôle de fondations d'entreprises pro-marché dans l'essor de la Law and Economics et s'appuie sur l'analyse de trajectoires individuelles ou collectives, qu'il s'agisse de projets de recherche, de programmes de formation des juges ou encore de travaux académiques et de carrières judiciaires et administratives de théoriciens de premier plan. Il s'attache in fine à l'impact de cette institutionnalisation sur les manières de juger
    Keywords: conservatism,antitrust,foundations,law and economics,fondations,économie du droit,conservatisme
    Date: 2021–03–08
  16. By: Allen, David; Mizuno, Hiro
    Abstract: This paper explores the influence of monetary policies, US influences, and other factors affecting stock prices in Japan from the beginning of the 1980s. The data set consists of monthly time series, largely taken from the Federal Bank of St. Louis (FRED) database in the USA. A variety of modelling and statistical techniques are applied which include regression analysis (OLS), cointegration and VECM analysis, plus the application of ARDL analysis and simulations. The results suggest that the adoption of QQE policy by the Japanese monetary authorities led to an upswing in Japanese share prices in the post-GFC period, whereas no such effect was apparent in the pre-GFC period
    Keywords: QQE, Japanese Share Prices,, Cointegration, VECM, ARDL, Simulations.
    JEL: E52 G1 G12
    Date: 2021–12–24
  17. By: Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder)
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of water quality on mortality by exploiting a natural experiment. the rise of tea consumption in 18th century England. This resulted in an unintentional increase in consumption of boiled water, thereby reducing mortality rates. The methodology uses two identication strategies tying areas with lower initial water quality to larger declines in mortality rates after tea drinking became widespread and following larger volumes of tea imports. Results are robust to the inclusion of controls for income and access to trade. The hypothesis is further bolstered by suggestive evidence from cause-specific deaths and early childhood mortality.
    Keywords: tea, water quality, mortality, Industrial Revolution
    JEL: N33 I15 Q25 Q56
    Date: 2022–01
  18. By: Claver Sanz, Raúl
    Abstract: This work explores the degree of intergenerational transmission of education for a sample of more than 19 developing countries for the geographical area that makes up the African region, over a time horizon from 1870 to 2010. The quantification of this transmission has revealed considerably high intergenerational correlation indices of more than 0.80, showing a very high transmission of education from one generation to the next, severely constraining patterns of evolution and development and thus stagnating overall growth. In this sense, it documents how this trend towards a lack of intergenerational educational mobility has been one of the reasons for the stagnation of economic growth and development in this region.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Transmission, Education, Africa.
    JEL: I24 I25 N30 O15
    Date: 2022–01–25
  19. By: Regina Baker
    Abstract: Building on literatures on racial regimes and the legacy of slavery, this study conceptualizes and constructs a novel measure of the historical racial regime (HRR), and examines how HRR influences contemporary poverty and racial inequality in the American South. The HRR scale measures different manifestations of the U.S. racial regime across different historical periods (i.e. slavery and Jim Crow) and is based on state-level institutions including slavery, sharecropping, disfranchisement, and segregation. Using Current Population Study data from the Luxembourg Income Study 2010-2018 for 527,829 Southerners and historical state-level data from various sources, evidence is triangulated from bivariate associations, multilevel regressions, and decomposition analyses. Results show that residing in a state with stronger HRR is not significantly associated with greater poverty for all and especially not among White Southerners. Rather, a higher level of HRR worsens Black poverty and especially Black-White inequalities in poverty. Further, HRR explains a significant share of the Black-White poverty gap. These results hold even after adjusting for a wide variety of individual-level variables, many of which plausibly mediate the influence of HRR. Altogether, this study demonstrates the enduring influence of historical state institutions on contemporary poverty and inequality.
    Date: 2021–11
  20. By: Stefania Albanesi; María José Prados
    Abstract: The entry of married women into the labor force and the rise in women's relative wages are amongst the most notable economic developments of the twentieth century. The growth in these indicators was particularly pronounced in the 1970s and 1980s, but it stalled since the early 1990s, especially for college graduates. In this paper, we argue that the discontinued growth in female labor supply and wages since the 1990s is a consequence of growing inequality. Our hypothesis is that the growth in top incomes for men generated a negative income effect on the labor supply of their spouses, which reduced their participation and wages. We show that the slowdown in participation and wage growth was concentrated among women married to highly educated and high income husbands, whose earnings grew dramatically over this period. We then develop a model of household labor supply with returns to experience that qualitatively reproduces this effect. A calibrated version of the model can account for a large fraction of the decline relative to trend in married women's participation in 1995-2005 particularly for college women. The model can also account for the rise in the gender wage gap for college graduates relative to trend in the same period.
    JEL: E24 J16 J21 J22 J3
    Date: 2022–01
  21. By: Mohaddes, K.; Ng, R. N. C.; Pesaran, M. H.; Raissi, M.; Yang, J-C.
    Abstract: We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963-2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various state-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment in the United States. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within U.S. estimates tend to be asymmetrical with respect to deviations of climate variables (including precipitation) from their historical norms.
    Keywords: Climate change, economic growth, adaptation, United States
    JEL: C33 O40 O44 O51 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2022–01–21
  22. By: Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Charles, Kerwin Kofi (Yale University); McKelligott, Michael (University of Chicago); Rees, Daniel I. (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: In the mid-19th century, the urban milk supply in the United States was regularly skimmed or diluted with water, reducing its nutritional value. At the urging of public health experts, cities across the country hired milk inspectors, who were tasked with collecting and analyzing milk samples with the goal of preventing adulteration and skimming. Using city-level data for the period 1880-1910, we explore the effects of milk inspections on infant mortality and mortality among children under the age of 5. Event-study estimates are small and statistically insignificant, providing little evidence of post-treatment reductions in either infant or child mortality.
    Keywords: mortality transition, milk inspections, infant mortality, child mortality, public health
    JEL: I18 J1 N31
    Date: 2021–12
  23. By: Nishizaki, Sumiyo
    Abstract: One important question in history is how knowledge has spread and allowed participants in an economy to increase their human capital. As Easterly and Levine have suggested (2001), one possible source of Japan’s post-war growth was the increased size of the labour force and improved human capital. Their data show that Japan’s experience was different from that of post-war Europe, where sources of growth mainly came from the high levels of investment, rather than from human resources. My research goes back to imperial Japan to analyse one possible channel of human capital development – the in-house vocational training offered by the largest Japanese wartime public corporation, the South Manchuria Railway Company (SMR). The majority of the 140,000 Japanese staff members were higher-elementary school graduates. They worked as staff members engaged in railway operation and construction, station duties, or worked as factory workers, and received extensive on-the-job training. A limited number of capable young employees were invited to attend training schools within the company. These programs were also open to non-Japanese staff members, but most participants were Japanese. Corporate training became increasingly common after the Second Sino-Japanese War broke out in 1937 to fill the vacancies created as a result of the intensified conscription. Although some people died in the war, many returned to Japan and entered the post-war labour market armed with their wartime skills and knowledge. The paper argues that training opportunities provided to under-educated young Japanese individuals at the SMR and other public corporations in the overseas empire produced unanticipated benefits in the form of human capital development.
    Keywords: human capital development; occupational mobility; technology transfer; post-war reconstruction
    JEL: J24 J62 N35 N75
    Date: 2022–02
  24. By: Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists' study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.
    Keywords: labor, immigration, emigration, selection, impact, wages, employment, roy model, production, globalization, history
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2022–01
  25. By: Broadberry, Stephen; Gardner, Leigh
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been absent from recent debates about comparative long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight Anglophone African economies for the period since 1885, raising new questions about previous characterizations of the region's economic performance. The new data show that many of these economies had levels of per capita income which were above subsistence by the early twentieth century, on a par with the largest economies in Asia until the 1980s. However, overall improvements in GDP per capita were limited by episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, the scale and scope of which can be measured through annual data.
    Keywords: Africa; economic growth; GDP per capita; shrinking
    JEL: E01 N37 O10
    Date: 2022–01–01
  26. By: Ali Sekkach (Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir])
    Abstract: This paper examines the growth effects of trade openessin sub-Saharan countries. We used Generalized method of moments GMM to analyze the data of 38 years (1981-2019). Our results show that trade openness has a significant impact on economic growth. During the reporting period, population growth and physical capital were among the main determinants of economic growth.
    Abstract: Le présent travail examine l'impact de l'ouverture commerciale de l'Afrique subsaharienne au commerce international sur sa croissance économique. Nous avons adopté une analyse à l'aide de la méthode des moments généralisée avec des données de 38 années (entre 1981 et 2019). Nos résultats montrent que l'ouverture commerciale a un impact significatif sur la croissance économique. La croissance démographique et le capital physique ont été parmi les principaux déterminants de la croissance économique au cours de la période objet de notre étude.
    Keywords: trade openness,Sub-Saharan Africa,economic growth,International trade,croissance économique,Afrique subsaharienne,ouverture,Commerce international
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Kumar Sur, Pramod
    Abstract: Recent democratic backsliding and the rise of authoritarian regimes around the world have rekindled interest in understanding the causes and consequences of authoritarian rule in democracies. In this paper, I study the long-run political consequences of authoritarianism in the context of India, the world’s largest democracy.Utilizing the unexpected timing of the authoritarian rule imposed in the 1970s and the variation in a draconian policy implemented during this period, I document a sharp decline in the share of the then incumbent party’s, the Indian National Congress, votes and the probability of its candidates winning in subsequent elections. The decline in the incumbent party’s political dominance was not at the expense of a lower voter turnout rate. Instead, a sharp rise in the number of opposition candidates contesting for election in subsequent years played an important role. Finally, I examine the enduring consequences, revealing that confidence in politicians remains low in states where the draconian policy was high. Together, the evidence suggests that authoritarianism in a democracy has a persistent effect on voting behavior, political representation, and confidence in institutions.
    Keywords: Democracy, authoritarianism, voting behavior, voter turnout, confidence in institutions, family planning, India, D72, N45, J13, P16
    Date: 2022–02
  28. By: Vincent Carret (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Michaël Assous (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The place of Harvard in the development of econometrics is assessed through the research of its faculty and the development of the courses they taught. Over the course of the century, as the content of econometrics was itself transformed, we find that the Harvard department of economics occupied a singular place in the econometric landscape. This idiosyncrasy was defined by large projects such as the Harvard barometer of the 1920s or the postwar development of input-output analysis, but also by the lack of common purpose that often characterized the work of its members. Through the storied halls of the university passed many of the best and brightest, but few were given the chance to pursue their projects durably, to the detriment of the constitution of a "Harvard econometrics."
    Keywords: Persons,Leontief,Jorgenson,business cycles,input-output,investment studies,microeconometrics,quasi-experiments,panel data
    Date: 2022–01–10
  29. By: Roger Vicquéry
    Abstract: I rely on a historical natural experiment to provide, for the first time, a causal estimate of the effect of currency unions on international trade. Since the seminal paper by Rose (2000), a large literature has developed around currencies as a trade cost. However, self-selection and endogeneity bias implied by membership of a currency union are likely to be pervasive and might explain the large pro-trade effect of currency union found in the literature. I offer a quasi-experimental contribution by exploiting an exogenous variation in currency union membership, driven by an unexpected geopolitical shock – the 1861 Italian unification - and involving a French franc pan-European zone that existed throughout the 19th century. I employ original data and structural gravity equations to estimate an effect in the order of 35%, consistent with a large - if heterogenous - effect of common currencies on trade.
    Keywords: Currency Unions, Common Currency, Trade, Natural Experiment, Gravity Regressions.
    JEL: F15 F33 F54 N73
    Date: 2021
  30. By: Leander Heldring; James A. Robinson; Parker J. Whitfill
    Abstract: What is the impact of warfare on inequality and the social contract? Using local data on bombing, the evolution of wealth inequality and vote shares for the Labour Party in England around World War II we establish two results. First, on average, we find no impact of bombing on inequality. However, there is considerable heterogeneity and this result is driven by the south. In the north of England bombing led to significant falls in inequality. Second, heavier bombing led to a significant increase in the vote share for Labour after the War everywhere, but this effect is transitory in the south while it is permanent in the north. Our results obtain both in a simple difference-in-differences framework as well as in a panel-regression discontinuity framework in which we exploit the limited range of German fighter escort planes. Our results provide novel causal evidence for the inequality reducing impact of warfare and we interpret them as consistent with the notion that the impact of the War also led to a reconfiguration of the social contract in England.
    JEL: D3 H5 N4 O52
    Date: 2022–01
  31. By: Gary B. Gorton; Chase P. Ross; Sharon Y. Ross
    Abstract: It is difficult for private agents to produce money that circulates at par with no questions asked. We study two cases of privately-produced money: pre-Civil War U.S. private banknotes and modern stablecoins. Private monies are introduced when there are no better alternatives, but they initially carry an inconvenience yield. Over time, these monies may become more money-like, but they do not always achieve a positive convenience yield. Technology advances and reputation formation pushed private banknotes toward a positive convenience yield. We show that the same forces are at work for stablecoins.
    JEL: E02 E4 E41 E42 E51 G1 G21
    Date: 2022–01
  32. By: Riccardo Lucchetti (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali - Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Gabriele Morettini (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)
    Abstract: We propose an empirical investigation of the population dynamics between 1931 and 2011 in a mountain area in central Italy. The main novelty of our work is the usage of sub-municipal data, which makes it possible to disentangle several drivers of the overall depopulation trend. All these factors had been considered previously by separate strands of literature, but never jointly, as we do. One of our most interesting results is that different factors operate in different historical periods. Therefore, we use a flexible statistical strategy by which we divide the sample in four different 20-year spans and adopt a different statistical model for each. Another notable result is that an appropriate quantitative description of the phenomenon must take into account the disappearance of inhabited centres separately from their size in terms on inhabitants. In order to implement "place-based" policies in remote mountain areas, the most meaningful unit to consider as the foundation of social interactions is sub-municipal. Moreover, the concept of community is crucial for a systematic understanding of population change and related policy actions.
    JEL: N34 N94 N54
    Date: 2022–02
  33. By: Masset, Edoardo
    Abstract: A civil conflict broke out in northern Mali in 2012, which is continuing to the present day. Very little is known about its impact on civilians. In this paper we show how to use birth history data to build long time series of mortality rates, and we use novel synthetic control methods to estimate the impact of the Malian civil conflict on child mortality. We find that conflict produced a significant increase in under-5 mortality, and that the impact was negligible on infant mortality but large on child mortality. We analyse trends of key mortality determinants, and conclude that a reduction in vaccination rates and in access to health care in childhood were the most likely mediators of impact. Northern Mali is today one of the poorest and most neglected areas of the world where humanitarian assistance is urgently needed.
    Keywords: MALI; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; children; mortality; conflicts; civil conflict; control methods; health
    Date: 2021
  34. By: Maxime Menuet (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours); Hugo Oriola (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours); Patrick Villieu (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours)
    Abstract: In this paper, we challenge the claim that an independent conservative central bank strengthens the likelihood of a conservative government. In contrast, if an election is based on the comparative advantages of the candidates, an inflation-averse central banker can deter the chances of a conservative candidate because once inflation is removed, its comparative advantage in the fight against inflation disappears. We develop a theory based on a policy-mix game with electoral competition, predicting that the chances of a conservative (i.e., inflation-averse) party is reduced in the presence of tighter monetary policy. To test this prediction, we examine monthly data of British political history between 1960 and 2015. We show that a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate in the 10 months prior to a national election decreases the popularity of a Tory government by approximately 0.75 percentage points relative to its trend.
    Keywords: monetary policy,elections,United Kingdom,comparative advantage
    Date: 2021–12–14
  35. By: Jean-Luc Gaffard (OFCE Sciences-Po; Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS; Institut Universitaire de France)
    Abstract: L'inflation qui avait quasiment disparue depuis quarante ans resurgit. La première réaction est de considérer ce phénomène comme transitoire comme si elle était le signe d'une rupture momentanée d'un équilibre de long terme. Cependant, elle se produit en un moment où des crises successives, financière, sanitaire, écologique deviennent le moteur de changements structurels importants et pourrait, de ce fait, être durable si les déséquilibres observés ne sont pas contenus. La comparaison avec les événements des années 1970, tant sur le plan des faits que sur celui de leur interprétation analytique, peut éclairer sur le sens de la question relative au caractère durable ou transitoire de l'inflation.
    Keywords: anticipations, changement structurel, inflation, politique économique
    JEL: E31 E52 E63 N10
    Date: 2022–02
  36. By: Davis, John B. (Department of Economics Marquette University)
    Abstract: The meaning and significance of Keynes’s Treatise on Probability has changed over the 100 years since its publication. Initially it stood on its own as an original contribution to probability theory. After The General Theory some saw the Treatise strengthening Keynes’s later arguments. Yet by the time New Classical Economics became dominant it became largely ignored. This paper attributes that later rejection to the mainstream economics’ reliance on Savage’s subjective expected utility restriction of probability thinking to what he called small worlds. It argues that his small worldslarge worlds distinction produces a small worlds-closed worlds conception of economics the mainstream employs, and that Keynesian economic thinking and the Treatise employ a large worlds-open worlds conception of economics. It frames this open-closed opposition in terms of two contrasting conceptions of science from 1930s system theory, and argues that in economics it is the basis for two conceptions of time: a static, before-after view of temporal sequences and a dynamic, past-present-future view of temporal sequences. The paper then shifts to how Sraffa explained the relationship between production and distribution as an interaction between a relatively closed production system open to distributional forces, shows an analogous view exists in the later thinking of Wittgenstein with whom Sraffa interacted, and then argues Keynes’s thinking in the Treatise employs a similar Cambridge understanding whereby our probability judgments are relatively closed but also open to fundamental uncertainty.
    Keywords: Keynes, Treatise on Probability, Savage, small worlds, closed worlds, open systems, closed systems, Sraffa, Wittgenstein
    JEL: B29 B30 C10 C11
    Date: 2022–01
  37. By: Goodwin, Geoff
    Abstract: This article stems from a constructive dialogue that Richard Sandbrook and I started after the publication of my earlier paper on the double movement in Development and Change (Goodwin, 2018). I am grateful to Richard for graciously engaging with my work and to the editors of the journal for inviting me to write this response. Thanks also to the editorial board, Michele Cangiani and Jeremy Rayner for their extremely helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. Lastly, I would like to thank the brilliant development studies students I have worked with at the University of Oxford and London School of Economics for helping me develop the ideas I present in this article. I remain fully responsible for all errors and omissions.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2022–02–08
  38. By: Deakin, Elizabeth
    Abstract: A Brief History of Transportation Policy and Institutions presents the development of transportation systems in the United States, with particular attention to California. The review includes key technological advances in transportation and the institutions that were developed to implement them. The paper also discusses the problem of organizational inertia and the issues associated with changing organizational culture to better reflect the problems of the day. Review of Statewide Transportation Plans for California reviews the most recently adopted CTP and other key transportation plans adopted by state agencies, discusses the special attention given to new technologies in the CTP, and presents the findings from over 80 interviews with stakeholders across California who were asked to weigh in on the strengths and weaknesses of transportation planning practices in the state.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2021–12–01
  39. By: Javier Silvestre (Universidad de Zaragoza)
    Abstract: Jordi Nadal fue uno de los investigadores que sentó las bases de la investigación sobre las migraciones interiores relacionadas con la modernización económica de España. Este artículo compara sus principales conclusiones, expuestas en dos de sus libros: La población española (Siglos XVI a XX) y El fracaso de la Revolución industrial en España, 1814-1913, con las de la investigación realizada después.
    Keywords: Jordi Nadal; migraciones interiores; modernización; España; investigación
    Date: 2022–01

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.