nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒02‒21
thirty-two papers chosen by

  1. Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability:Danish Butter Factories in the Face of Coal Shortages By Sofia Teives Henriques; Paul Sharp; Xanthi Tsoukli; Christian Vedel
  2. The wee divergence: Business creation and political turmoil in Ireland before 1900 By Adams, R. J. C.; Campbell, Gareth; Coyle, Christopher; Turner, John D.
  3. Judiciary and Wealth in the Ottoman Empire, 1689–1843 By Zeynep Dörtok Abacı; Jun Akiba; Metin M. Cosgel; Boğaç Ergene
  4. Multigenerational Effects of Smallpox Vaccination By Lazuka, Volha; Sandholt Jensen, Peter
  5. Settlers and Norms By Joanne Haddad
  6. When did Chile fall asleep? An assessment of national and regional income inequality in Chile, 1973-1990 By Banks, William
  7. Beyond the male breadwinner: life-cycle living standards of intact and disrupted English working families, 1260-1850 By Horrell, Sara; Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob
  8. Democratizing from Within: British Elites and the Expansion of the Franchise By Chitralekha Basu; Carles Boix; Sonia Giurumescu; Paulo Serôdio
  9. Industrial Feudalism and Wealth Inequalities By Hanna Szymborska; Jan Toporowski
  10. Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions By Mark Setterfield; Robert A. Blecker
  11. Resilience to shrinking as a catch-up strategy: a comparison of Brazil and Indonesia, 1964–2010 By Axelsson, Tobias; Martins, Igor
  12. Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany By Andrea Papadia; Claudio A. Schioppa
  13. The Great Migration and Educational Opportunity By Cavit Baran; Eric Chyn; Bryan Stuart
  14. Linking spatial and social mobility: is London's “escalator” as strong as it was? By Champion, Tony; Gordon, Ian
  15. Factor Income Distribution and Capital Accumulation in Peru, 1940-2019 By César Castillo-García
  16. Three Articles on the Technology Transfer in Meiji Japan: The Case of Cotton Spinning Enterprises By Naoki Hirai; Takenobu Yuki; Kanji Tamagawa; Takeshi Abe
  17. A Proven Solution for Lebanon’s Economic Crisis: A Currency Board By Kandasamy, Ambika
  18. An Economic Approach to Religious Communes: The Shakers By Metin M. Cosgel
  19. Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo By Josefin Meyer; Carmen M. Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch
  20. Crisis, what crisis? Industrial strategies and path dependencies in four European countries after the crash By Garcia Calvo, Angela; Coulter, Steve
  21. Nutrition, crowding and disease among low-income households in Tokyo in 1930 By Ogasawara, Kota; Gazeley, Ian; Schneider, Eric B.
  22. The Politics and History of Global Tax Governance By Hearson, Martin; Rixen, Thomas
  23. From Neolithic Revolution to Industrialization By Chu, Angus C.
  24. Length of Crises and Financial Development By Clément Mathonnat; Alexandru Minea; Marcel Voia
  25. The legacies of armed conflict: insights from stayees and returning forced migrants By Isabel Ruiz; Carlos Vargas-Silva
  26. The Marginal Labor Supply Disincentives of Welfare: Evidence from Administrative Barriers to Participation By Moffitt, Robert A.; Zahn, Matthew V.
  27. Critical Periods in Cognitive and Socioemotional Development: Evidence from Weather Shocks in Indonesia By Duncan Webb
  28. L’emprise de l'occulte sur la légitimité de l'état et l'aide à la démocratisation en Afrique By Kohnert, Dirk
  29. Los orígenes de la cocaína By Paul Gootenberg; Liliana M. Dávalos
  30. Resilience to economic shrinking as the key to economic catch-up: A social capability approach By Andersson, Martin; Julia, Juan P.; Palcio Ch., Andrés F.
  31. Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League By Max Marczinek; Stephan Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
  32. Widowhood and Consumption of Private Assignable Goods: The Role of Socio-Economic Status, Rainfall Shocks and Historical Institutions By Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay; Bipasha Maity

  1. By: Sofia Teives Henriques (University of Porto); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark); Xanthi Tsoukli (University of Bamberg); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: Economic historians have debated the importance of energy for economic development.Energy economists would argue that energy systems need to be adaptable in the face of shocks. In this light, we consider the case of Denmark, a country which was almost entirely dependent on imports of coal, and where a long coastline made imports, largely from the UK, cheap and available. Towards the end of the First World War, however, and well into the 1920s, coal imports were cut off or difficult to obtain. We exploit detailed microlevel data from butter factories, covering the period 1900-28. We find that firms were able to adapt and make use of alternative fuels, notably peat, although its availability varied across the country. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find significant productivity advantages for creameries closer to available peat fields in the wake of the coal shortage.
    Keywords: Coal, dairying, Denmark, energy, geography, peat, productivity JEL Classification:N54, O13, Q40
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Adams, R. J. C.; Campbell, Gareth; Coyle, Christopher; Turner, John D.
    Abstract: What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising from the Home Rule movement resulted in reduced entrepreneurial activity and business investment. We find that increased political instability led to a significant divergence of business creation between Scotland and Ireland. Our findings suggest that the effects of political instability on entrepreneurship were most acute in the parts of Ireland that were most concerned by potential changes.
    Keywords: Ireland,Scotland,Home Rule,entrepreneurship,political risk,uncertainty
    JEL: D80 L26 N43 N93
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Zeynep Dörtok Abacı (Bursa Uludağ University); Jun Akiba (The University of Tokyo); Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Boğaç Ergene (University of Vermont)
    Abstract: This article examines the accumulation, temporal variation, and intergroup inequality of wealth in the Ottoman judiciary between the late seventeenth and early nineteenth centuries, based on information from the estate inventories (terekes) found in Istanbul’s kısmet-i askeriye registers. After calculating the gross and net real wealth of the judges at the time of death, we compare them against contemporary economic indicators, which show moderate to modest levels of wealth accumulation. Whereas the levels of mean gross wealth varied significantly between certain groups of the judiciary, no such variations were observed in net wealth. Factors contributing to the variations of wealth levels included the bequest motive and family connections to other members of the judiciary. Wealth levels dropped drastically in the latter part of the eighteenth century, a consequence of the financial strains the Ottoman Empire experienced during this period.
    Keywords: Ottoman, estate inventories, terekes, judiciary, wealth, inequality, kısmet-i askeriye
    JEL: D31 E21 G51 H55 J30 K40 M52
    Date: 2022–01
  4. By: Lazuka, Volha (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Sandholt Jensen, Peter (Linneaus University and University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: This paper aims at finding whether vaccination in childhood is an important source of improved health over the life cycle and across generations. We leverage high-quality individual-level data from Sweden covering the full life spans of three generations between 1790 and 2016 and a historical quasi-experiment – a smallpox vaccination campaign. To derive the causal impact of this campaign, we employ the instrumental-variables approach and the siblings/cousins fixed effects. Our results show that the vaccine injection by age 2 improved longevity of the first generation by 14 years and made them much wealthier in adult ages. These effects, with the magnitude reduced by two thirds, persisted to the second and the third generation. Such magnitudes make vaccination a powerful health input in the very long term and suggest the transmission of environmental beyond genetic factors.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission of health; smallpox vaccination; instrumental- variables; Sweden
    JEL: E24 I12 I15 I18 I38 J24 N43
    Date: 2021–12–13
  5. By: Joanne Haddad
    Abstract: The distinctive traits of early settlers at initial stages of institutional development may be crucial for cultural formation. In 1973, the cultural geographer Wilbur Zelinsky postulated this in his doctrine of “first effective settlement”. There is however little empirical evidence supporting the role of early settlers in shaping culture over the long run. This paper tests this hypothesis by relating early settlers’ culture to within state variation in gender norms in the United States. I capture settlers’ culture using past female labor force participation, women’s suffrage, and financial rights at their place of origin. I document the distinctive characteristics of settlers’ populations and provide suggestive evidence in support of the transmission of gender norms across space and time. My results show that women’s labor supply is higher, in both the short and long run, in U.S. counties that historically hosted a larger settler population originating from places with favorable gender attitudes. My findings shed new light on the importance of the characteristics of immigrants and their place of origin for cultural formation in hosting societies.
    Keywords: female labor force participation, settlers, gender norms, cultural formation
    Date: 2022–01
  6. By: Banks, William
    Abstract: In the two decades after General Augusto Pinochet seized power in September 1973, the Chilean economy transformed; a series of orthodox and liberal reforms aimed at “liberalisation, stabilisation and privatisation” were lauded as a “miracle.” But while hyperinflation was reduced and GDP per capita growth restored, most economists agree that this came at the cost of a spike in income inequality across the 1970s and 1980s. However, our knowledge of this inequality is limited as most studies implicitly assume a household survey which only covers the capital, Gran Santiago, to be representative of the whole country. This dissertation scrutinises this assumption by using novel social tables and wage estimates to construct a Gini coefficient time series for the 1980s which can be disaggregated by region. First, I demonstrate that developments in Gran Santiago were not representative of the whole country in the 1980s, before presenting a new national labour income inequality series for the period, showing a decline in inequality. While this new series is only a partial measure of inequality, it suggests a more complicated picture than previous studies, and as such demonstrates the need for a reassessment of the relationship between Pinochet’s economic policies and income distributions.
    JEL: N36
    Date: 2021–12
  7. By: Horrell, Sara; Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob
    Abstract: This article provides a novel framework within which to evaluate real household incomes of predominantly rural working families of various sizes and structures in England in the years 1260–1850. We reject ahistorical assumptions about complete reliance on men's wages and male breadwinning, moving closer to reality by including women and children's contributions to family incomes. Our empirical strategy benefits from recent estimates of men's annual earnings, so avoiding the need to gross up day rates using problematic assumptions about days worked, and from new data on women and children's wages and labour inputs. A family life-cycle approach which accommodates consumption smoothing through saving adds further breadth and realism. Moreover, the analysis embraces two historically common but often overlooked family types alternative to the traditional male-breadwinner model: one where the husband is missing having died or deserted, and one where the husband is present but unwilling or unable to find work. Our framework suggests living standards varied widely by family structure and dependency ratio. Incorporating detailed demographic data available for 1560 onward suggests that small and intact families enjoyed high and rising living standards after 1700, while large or disrupted families depended on child labour and poor relief until c. 1830. A broader perspective on family structures informs understanding of the chronology and nature of poverty and coping strategies.
    Keywords: child labour; consumption smoothing; costs-of-living; dependency ratio; life cycle; living standards; male breadwinner families; poor relief; prices; wages; CF18-0495
    JEL: J22 N13 O10
    Date: 2021–08–30
  8. By: Chitralekha Basu (University of Cologne); Carles Boix (Princeton University, IPErG (Universitat de Barcelona)); Sonia Giurumescu (Stockholm University); Paulo Serôdio (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: We develop a theory of democratization that integrates both electoral calculations and economic incentives to explain the institutional choices of political actors. Left-leaning (liberal) politicians, who, given their location in the policy space, are more likely to receive the support of newly enfranchised voters, favor a broader franchise than conservative ones. Their preferences are conditional on the distributional effects of the franchise: when inequality is higher, policymakers are more reluctant to expand it because it is harder to reconcile the policy demands of existing and new voters. We evaluate this theory by estimating the franchise preferences of British MPs based on their votes on franchise-related parliamentary divisions between 1830 and 1918, and linking these preferences to their personal and constituency characteristics. Our results, which are consistent with our theory, show that declining inequality and the First World War were crucial factors in the democratization of Britain in this period.
    Keywords: Democratization; Franchise extension; British political development; Electoral competition
    JEL: D72 N43
    Date: 2022–01
  9. By: Hanna Szymborska (Birmingham City University); Jan Toporowski (SOAS, University of London)
    Abstract: The possibility, first raised by Rudolf Hilferding, of stabilizing a capitalist economy through the operations of a 'general cartel', leaving only social and political 'contradictions' to disturb the functioning of the system, gave rise to a discussion among Marxists not only on whether such a stabilization was at all possible, but also on the nature and scope of those contradictions. This discussion had been anticipated in the 1890s in the work of the Polish Marxist Ludwik Krzywicki (1859 - 1941). He put forward the idea that, in a capitalist economy stabilized in this way, a state of 'industrial feudalism' would prevail, in which society would become stratified into social classes without the possibility of mobility between those classes. This analysis was extended in 1940s by Oskar Lange (1904-1965) as he attempted to make sense of the American New Deal and rediscovered in the 1950s by Tadeusz Kowalik (1926-2012). This paper explains the concept of industrial feudalism and argues that the main mechanism for such a stratification today is the unequal distribution of wealth, in the context of declining welfare provision.
    Keywords: Industrial feudalism; social mobility; wealth distribution; Ludwik Krzywicki; Oskar Lange; Tadeusz Kowalik
    JEL: B14 B15 N3 P1 P16
    Date: 2022–01–18
  10. By: Mark Setterfield (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research); Robert A. Blecker (Department of Economics, American University)
    Abstract: This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and firms. The resulting account is consistent with the main stylized facts that characterize the evolution of the US PC since 1948: the disappearance and subsequent reappearance of a ‘standard’ PC (relating the level of the inflation rate, not the change in this rate, to the rate of unemployment); and the flattening of the PC since the 1990s.
    Keywords: Phillips Curve, inflation, unemployment, natural rate hypothesis, bargaining power, institutions
    JEL: E12 E24 E25 E31 N12
    Date: 2022–01
  11. By: Axelsson, Tobias (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Martins, Igor (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Development economics has long focused on growth patterns to explain countries’ ability to catch up and forge ahead. We argue, however, that resilience to economic shrinking matters more. Using the examples of Brazil and Indonesia, we propose that a framework consisting of social capabilities – namely structural transformation, autonomy, and inclusion – can explain why Indonesia is more resilient to economic shrinking than Brazil and why the country is more likely to be successful in its catching-up process.
    Keywords: economic shrinking; income convergence; natural states; social capabilities; Latin America; Asia
    JEL: N10 O20 O43
    Date: 2022–01–19
  12. By: Andrea Papadia; Claudio A. Schioppa
    Abstract: We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of history’s largest debt repatriations - that of 1930s Germany. We show that the authorities kept private repatriations under strict control, thus avoiding detrimental macroeconomic effects, while allowing discretionary repatriations in order to reap internal political benefits.
    Keywords: Sovereign risk, capital controls, elite capture, Germany, Nazi regime, foreign debt, secondary markets
    JEL: E65 F38 H63 N24
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Cavit Baran; Eric Chyn; Bryan Stuart
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the First Great Migration on children. We use the complete count 1940 Census to estimate selection-corrected place effects on education for children of Black migrants. On average, Black children gained 0.8 years of schooling (12 percent) by moving from the South to the North. Many counties that had the strongest positive impacts on children during the 1940s offer relatively poor opportunities for Black youth today. Opportunities for Black children were greater in places with more schooling investment, stronger labor market opportunities for Black adults, more social capital, and less crime.
    Keywords: Great Migration; human capital; education; place effect.
    JEL: N32 J15 J24 H75
    Date: 2022–02–08
  14. By: Champion, Tony; Gordon, Ian
    Abstract: The “escalator region” concept became a key element of migration literature after Fielding's work on South East England and fuelled a welcome growth of interest in the links between spatial and social mobility. More recent research has shown that London has continued to perform an escalator function since the 1970s, but little attention has been given to how its strength has altered both over time and compared with other parts of the UK. Against the background of the declining rates of internal migration observed in the United States and several other countries, this paper seeks to identify whether London's escalator role was waxing or waning over the four intercensal decades between 1971 and 2011. The primary emphasis is on the chances of people shifting up from noncore to core white-collar work during each decade for London's nonmigrant and in-migrant populations, in both absolute terms and relative to England's second-order cities. It is found that over the three decades since the 1970s London's escalator was still performing in the way originally conceived, but although its net gain of young adults from the rest of England and Wales steadily increased over this period, it was not operating as strongly in 2001–2011 as during the 1990s in terms of both the career-progression premium gained by its in-migrants and the extent of its advantage over England's second-order cities.
    Keywords: career progression; escalator region; London; migration; second-order city regions; social mobility; ES/R00823X/1
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–10–01
  15. By: César Castillo-García (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)
    Abstract: A current problem with Latin American economies is the lack of long-run official statistical data for income shares. Nevertheless, several proposals attempt to present estimations to proxy the evolutionary patterns of income distribution in different countries of the region. This study focuses on the factor income distribution for the Peruvian economy. It aims to show time series for the wage, profit, and mixed-income shares for the period 1942-2019 as reconstructed in Castillo (2015). I also present a brief history of the Peruvian macroeconomic regimes. Hence, the evolution of the wage and profits shares relate to the structural transformations of the Peruvian economy and the impact of economic policy in the distributive cycles. The paper ends with the estimation of a Kaleckian model and evaluates the economic growth regime for different time periods. While the whole 1940-2019 is a wage-led growth regime, economic growth in the Neoliberal era 1990-2019 is profit-led because of Peruvian structural changes and 1990s adjustment policies.
    Date: 2022–02
  16. By: Naoki Hirai; Takenobu Yuki; Kanji Tamagawa; Takeshi Abe
    Abstract: Osaka B?seki Kaisha (Osaka Spinning Company; hereinafter "Osaka B?seki), founded by Shibusawa Eiichi and several others in Sangen'ya Village, Nishinari District, Osaka Prefecture, in May 1882, was a pioneering presence in Japan's modern spinning industry. Researchers have studied the mill's architecture through analyses of drawings and plans, but details surrounding several parts of the design have remained largely unclear. Drawings and images depicting the mill's architecture prior to a fire in December 1892 have remained in relative obscurity, making that segment of the mill history particularly difficult to pin down. This paper introduces new resources on that gap in the existing scholarship's coverage and probes the materials to delineate the architecture of Mill No. 1 in clearer detail.
    Date: 2022–01
  17. By: Kandasamy, Ambika (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)
    Abstract: Lebanon is currently facing a financial crisis marked by rising inflation rates and a black-market exchange rate that is significantly diverging day-by-day from the official exchange rate. In this paper, the author dives into Lebanon’s financial history and what actions undertaken by the government since the civil war have led to this crisis. After a thorough examination of the current economy, the author compares Lebanon’s present day financial crisis to the one faced by Bulgaria in the 1990s and concludes that the implementation of a currency board is a viable solution for restoring the strength of the Lebanese pound and ushering in financial stability.
    Keywords: currency board; Lebanon; Bulgaria
    JEL: E51 G01
    Date: 2021–11–13
  18. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: The Shakers were a religious society well known for their commitments to celibacy, joint ownership of property, and communal lifestyle. An economic approach to religious communes, originally developed by John E. Murray, proposes that Shaker membership and prospective entrants responded to the incentives created by the difference between Shaker and worldly living standards. Membership decisions within Shaker communal societies were influenced by both religious belief and economic incentives; despite communalism, Shaker farms and shops generally performed just as productively as their neighbors; the organization of Shaker communes under the Family system was a compromise that balanced communal ideals with the costs of motivation and coordination; Shakers' dairy operations were just as productive as nearby family farms or larger commercial operations; and eastern and western Shakers farmed in ways that were more similar to their neighbors than to each other. This essay will examine the living standards and membership selection in Shaker societies and the organization and market integration of their businesses, with the dual objective of outlining the basic elements of an economic approach to the Shakers and discussing Murray’s contributions to the literature.
    Keywords: Shakers, religious commune, living standards, incentives, membership, productivity
    JEL: B30 H30 I10 J10 J32 L20 M54 N31 P32 Z12
    Date: 2022–01
  19. By: Josefin Meyer; Carmen M. Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch
    Abstract: This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns average more than 6 percent annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of 3-4 percent above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. Central to this finding are the high average coupons offered on external sovereign bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on an archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, the authors show that full repudiation is rare; the median creditor loss (haircut) is below 50 percent.
    Keywords: Sovereign debt, return on investment, sovereign risk
    JEL: E4 F3 F4 G1 N0
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Garcia Calvo, Angela; Coulter, Steve
    Abstract: This paper examines industrial policy responses to the 2008 crisis in four European countries and gauges their long-term significance by asking: to what extent were these politicised, short term remedies; or enduring policy changes? We find that policy responses varied significantly in their coherence and long-term impact and argue that the key influential factors were: the presence of large, globally competitive manufacturing bases spanning several adjacent sectors; and the existence of strong public-private elite networks, rather than pre-existing institutional structures–which proved surprisingly malleable. The paper contributes to the understanding of the determinants of policy-making in times of crisis.
    Keywords: capitalist systems; Europe; industrial policy; institutions and growth; policy; political economy
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2020–07–04
  21. By: Ogasawara, Kota; Gazeley, Ian; Schneider, Eric B.
    Abstract: This article employs a household survey of low-income working-class households conducted in Tokyo in 1930 to investigate nutritional attainment levels and the relationship between calorie intake and morbidity. We find that the daily calorie intake was 2,118 kcal per adult male equivalent, high enough to satisfy the energy requirements for moderate physical activity. Richer households purchased more expensive calories mainly by substituting meat and vegetables for rice. We find negative associations between morbidity and income and crowding, but no significant associations for nutrition, tentatively suggesting that income and crowding were more important for morbidity in 1930 Tokyo than nutrition.
    Keywords: nutrition; morbidity; health; ES/L002523/1
    JEL: N35
    Date: 2020–03–01
  22. By: Hearson, Martin; Rixen, Thomas
    Abstract: We discuss the history, political determinants and current challenges of global tax governance. We divide the last century into three eras: foundation, during which states built a regime to prevent double taxation using bilateral treaties and soft multilateral coordination; stability, during which this regime failed to adapt to the growth in volume and complexity of cross-border trade and investment capital; finally, the current era of crisis, characterized by politicization, an appetite to reform longstanding institutions, and a willingness to trample over fiscal sovereignty. Existing scholarship explaining this trajectory of change can be organized through well-established interest-based, power-based and ideational accounts. We argue that future research could build on this existing scholarship by reorienting in three different ways: from tax competition towards double taxation and tax sovereignty, from the OECD to emerging markets and developing countries, and from mid-level theorization towards the bigger picture of global political economy, of which tax is an intrinsic part.
    Keywords: Finance,
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Chu, Angus C.
    Abstract: This study develops a simple economic model for the evolution of the human society from hunting-gathering to agriculture and then an industrial economy. The human society evolves across these three stages as population grows. However, under endogenous population growth, the population may stop growing and never reach the next threshold. If it fails to reach the first threshold, then the population remains as hunter-gatherers. If it reaches the first threshold, then an agricultural society emerges. The Neolithic Revolution occurs under a low fertility cost, strong fertility preference, high agricultural productivity, and high labor supply. Then, if the population fails to reach the next threshold, the economy remains in an agricultural Malthusian trap and does not experience industrialization. Industrialization occurs under a low fertility cost, strong fertility preference, high agricultural productivity, high labor supply, a large amount of agricultural land, high industrial productivity, and a low fixed cost of industrial production.
    Keywords: Neolithic Revolution; industrialization; endogenous population growth
    JEL: J11 O13 O14
    Date: 2022–02
  24. By: Clément Mathonnat; Alexandru Minea (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Marcel Voia
    Abstract: A large literature looks at the influence of financial development on the costs in terms of output of crises. Our contribution takes a somewhat different path, by looking at the impact of financial development on the length of banking crises. Using a large database spanning over almost found decades, our estimations show that on average the length of crises is statistically higher in countries with higher financial development. Confirmed by various robustness tests, this finding exhibits various heterogeneities related, among others, to the time period or countries' economic development level.
    Abstract: Une littérature abondante analyse l'influence du développement financier sur les coûts en termes de sortie de crises. Notre contribution emprunte un chemin quelque peu différent, en examinant l'impact du développement financier sur la longueur des crises bancaires. En utilisant une base de données couvrant plusieurs décennies, nos estimations montrent qu'en moyenne la durée des crises est statistiquement plus longue dans les pays ayant un développement financier plus élevé. Confirmé par divers tests de robustesse, ce résultat présente diverses hétérogénéités liées, entre autres, à la période étudiée ou au niveau de développement économique des pays.
    Keywords: pays en développement,crises,développement financier
    Date: 2021–07
  25. By: Isabel Ruiz; Carlos Vargas-Silva
    Abstract: How does conflict, displacement, and return shape trust, reconciliation, and community engagement? And what is the relative impact of exposure to violence on these indicators? In this paper we explore these questions by focusing on the legacies of armed conflict and the differences between those who stayed in their communities of origin during the conflict (stayees) and those who were displaced internally and internationally and who returned home over time (returnees).
    Keywords: Trust, Conflict, Forced migration
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Moffitt, Robert A. (Johns Hopkins University); Zahn, Matthew V. (Johns Hopkins University)
    Abstract: Existing research on the static effects of the manipulation of welfare program benefit parameters on labor supply has allowed only restrictive forms of heterogeneity in preferences. Yet preference heterogeneity implies that the marginal effects on labor supply of welfare expansions and contractions may differ in different time periods with different populations and which sweep out different portions of the distribution of preferences. A new examination of the heavily studied AFDC program uses variation in state-level administrative barriers to entering the program in the late 1980s and early 1990s to estimate the marginal labor supply effects of changes in program participation induced by that variation. The estimates are obtained from a theory-consistent reduced form model which allows for a nonparametric specification of how changes in welfare program participation affect labor supply on the margin. Estimates using a form of local instrumental variables show that the marginal treatment effects are quadratic, rising and then falling as participation rates rise (i.e., becoming more negative then less negative on hours of work). The average work disincentive is not large but that masks some margins where effects are close to zero and some which are sizable. Traditional IV which estimates a weighted average of marginal effects gives a misleading picture of marginal responses. A counterfactual exercise which applies the estimates to three historical reform periods in 1967, 1981, and 1996 when the program tax rate was significantly altered shows that marginal labor supply responses differed in each period because of differences in the level of participation in the period and the composition of who was on the program.
    Keywords: welfare, labor supply, marginal treatment effects
    JEL: I3 J2 C21
    Date: 2022–01
  27. By: Duncan Webb (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: A large literature points towards the importance of early life circumstance in determining long-run human capital and wellbeing outcomes. This literature often justifies a focus on the very early years by citing the first 1000 days of life as a 'critical period' for child development, but this notion has rarely been directly tested. In a setting in which children are potentially subject to shocks in every year of their childhood, I estimate the impact of early life weather shocks on adult cognitive and socioemotional outcomes for individuals born in rural Indonesia between 1988 and 2000. There is a strong critical period for these shocks at age 2 for cognitive development, but no similar critical period for socioemotional development. The impacts of the shocks are likely to be taking place through nutritional and agricultural income channels. These impacts are initially latent, only appearing after age 15. I show suggestive evidence for dynamic complementarity in early life investments.
    Keywords: Critical period,Human capital,Early childhood development,Dynamic complementarity
    Date: 2022–01
  28. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : The impact of occult belief on legitimacy of the state and on aid for democratization in Africa: Among politicians and development experts in Africa alike there is a growing awareness of the never decreasing importance of the belief in magic and witchcraft on political decision making since pre-colonial times. Demonstration of the control of occult forces as a means of enhancing legitimacy of traditional or charismatic rule had been considered for over a century to be the prerogative of traditional chiefs and their marabouts; now it proved to be effective for the modern political elite and the state as well. An increasing number of African states officially recognized the existence of magic and witchcraft, and they adapted the imposed colonial law accordingly. In addition magic-religious belief systems, as represented by the vodun or African independent churches (e.g. the Kimbanguists), boasting to control witchcraft, are promoted by African political leaders to enhance legitimacy both of the political class and of state governance. At the same time, development experts tried to take into account the socio cultural dimension of development; they called for an "endogenization" of development aid. This call was justified, because endogenization should be considered as a pre-requisite of sustainable aid; however, under certain conditions it may be ambiguous and dangerous as well. Concerning the consideration of occult belief it may lead to the promotion of illegitimate rule and violation of basic human rights. RÉSUMÉ: Parmi les politiciens et les experts du développement en Afrique de même il y a une prise de conscience croissante de l'importance jamais décroissante de la croyance en la magie et la sorcellerie sur la prise de décision politique depuis l'époque pré-coloniale. La démonstration du contrôle des forces occultes comme un moyen de renforcer leurs légitimité avait été pendant plus d'un siècle la prérogative des chefs traditionnels et leurs marabouts. Aujourd'hui, il est efficace pour l'élite politique moderne et l'état moderne ainsi. Un nombre croissant d'Etats africains ont officiellement reconnu l'existence de la sorcellerie et de la magie, et ils adaptes la loi coloniale imposée en conséquence. En addition des systèmes de croyances magico-religieuses, représentée par le vodun ou des églises indépendantes africaines (par exemple, les Kimbanguistes), bénéficiant de contrôler la sorcellerie, sont promus par les dirigeants politiques africains pour renforcer la légitimité à la fois de la classe politique et de la gouvernance de l'État. Dans le même temps, des experts en développement ont essayé de prendre en compte la dimension culturelle du développement socio-culturelle. Ils ont appelé à une «endogénéisation» de l'aide au développement. Cet appel a été justifié, parce que l'endogénisation devrait être considérée comme un pré-requis de l'aide durable. Cependant, sous certaines conditions, il peut être ambigu et dangereux aussi. En ce qui concerne la considération de la croyance occulte elle peut conduire à la promotion de l'État illégitime et à la violation des droits humains fondamentaux.
    Keywords: religion, sorcellerie, croyance occulte, théorie conspirationniste, développement durable, démocratisation, légitimité, aide au développement, Afrique subsaharienne, études africaines, Togo, Nigéria, Zaïre, RD Congo,
    JEL: F35 N37 N97 O17 O29 O35 P48 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2020–09
  29. By: Paul Gootenberg; Liliana M. Dávalos
    Abstract: †De lectura obligada tanto para académicos como para diseñadores de políticas públicas, Los orígenes de la cocaína proporciona evidencia importante que apunta a la necesidad de replantear las estrategias que han fallado en el intento de reducir la oferta de cocaína y más bien promover un desarrollo a largo plazo, equitativo y medioambientalmente sostenible, en las regiones más pobres de los Andes. Coletta A. Youngers, Oficina en Washington para Asuntos Latinoamericanos (WOLA) En los años sesenta del siglo xx, los gobiernos de Colombia, Perú y Bolivia lanzaron en cada país programas de asentamiento agrícola en las tierras bajas de la vasta frontera amazónica. Dos décadas más tarde, estas mismas zonas se habían transformado en los centros de producción de cocaína de las Américas. Con base en conceptos históricos y antropológicos, Los orígenes de la cocaína explora cómo estos tres países han tenido resultados paralelos en cuanto a economías ilícitas fronterizas y culturas cocaleras, a pesar de que para mediados del siglo tenían trayectorias políticas divergentes. Mediante la combinación de análisis transnacionales, nacionales y locales, a lo largo de estas páginas se examina en profundidad los orígenes de la economía de las drogas ilícitas en el continente. Al ser el primer estudio importante sobre el viraje de la colonización agraria a la narcotización, Los orígenes de la cocaína es de interés tanto para especialistas como para estudiantes de posgrado de historia, antropología, desarrollo y estudios medioambientales de América Latina.
    Keywords: Cocaína
    Date: 2021–11–01
  30. By: Andersson, Martin (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Julia, Juan P. (Unit for Economic History, University of Gothenburg); Palcio Ch., Andrés F. (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Economic growth is usually considered the main driver of convergence – the attainment by developing countries of income levels similar to those of industrialised nations. Although it has been recognised that achieving economic growth is not the same as sustaining it, analyses of the role of economic shrinking in the catching-up process, and how to build resilience to shrinking, are in short supply. The objective of this paper is to understand how emerging economies can limit the frequency and magnitude of economic shrinking and thus increase the probability of catching up. To this end, we analyse the role of social capabilities as determinants of resilience to shrinking in 26 developing countries during the period 1964– 2018. As a representation of a broad spectrum of capabilities, we construct an Index based on five interrelated social and economic capabilities: (i) transformation of the economic structure, (ii) market inclusion, (iii) social stability, (iv) accountability and (v) autonomy of the state. We demonstrate that countries with better social capabilities are more resilient to shrinking than countries with poor capabilities. Poorly endowed countries do not necessarily lack the ability to generate growth, but their limited resilience prevents them from catching up. In addition, the paper shows that social capabilities are highly relevant in smoothing the negative effects of international trade shocks in developing countries. The main implication of the paper is that improvement of social capabilities should be regarded as a key instrument to promote long-term, sustainable economic development, and it should be emphasised over short-term maximization of economic growth. This could be done by conciliating socioeconomic transformation with other concerns, such as the sustainable use of natural resources.
    Keywords: economic shrinking; social capabilities; resilience; economic growth; catching up; developing countries
    JEL: O47 O57
    Date: 2021–12–20
  31. By: Max Marczinek; Stephan Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
    Abstract: How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21,590 city-level trade flows over 190 years, covering 1,425 cities. We use the Sound Toll data, a dataset collected by the Danish crown until 1857 that registered every ship entering or leaving the Baltic Sea, forming one of the most granular and extensive trade data sets. We measure trade flows by counting the number of ships sailing on a particular route in a given year and estimate gravity equations using PPML and an appropriate set of fixed effects. Bilateral gravity estimation results show that trade among former Hansa cities only shows persistence after its dissolution in 1669 for about 30 years, but this persistence is not robust across different regression specifications. However, when we incorporate the flag under which a ship is sailing and consider trilateral trade (where an observation is a combination of origin, destination, and flag), we find that trade persistently exceeds the gravity benchmark: Hansa cities continued to trade more with each other, but only on ships that were owned in another former Hansa city and thus sailed under a Hansa flag. Similar effects are found for trade among former Hansa cities and their trading posts abroad, yet again only conditional on the ship sailing under a former Hanseatic flag. Trade flows among the same pair of origin and destination cities, but under a different flag, do not show this persistence. Our main result shows that the identity of traders persists longer and more strongly than other forms of trading relationships we can measure. Apart from these new quantitative and qualitative insights on the persistence of trade flows, our paper is also of historic interest, as it provides new and detailed information on the speed of decline of trade amongst members of the Hanseatic League.
    Date: 2022–01–26
  32. By: Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay (Indian Institute of Management, Indore); Bipasha Maity (Ashoka University)
    Abstract: We study how weather shocks interact with cultural norms biased against women to affect female poverty within the household. Using expenditure on female assignable clothing per adult woman as a measure of women's intra-household access to consumption, we document that spending on female assignable goods is lower in households with at least one widowed woman relative to households with no widows in India. However, selection into widowhood appears to be plausibly random and economic hardship on account of death of a male member is unlikely to explain why households with a widow have lower spending on female assignable goods. We then study how rainfall shocks influence the spending on female assignable goods by the presence of a widow in the household. We find that although beneficial rainfall shocks increase overall spending on female assignable goods; this increase is lower in households with a widow. We obtain opposite findings for spending on male assignable goods. We find that regions where widow persecution was widespread historically are associated with poorer outcomes for widows at present. Our analysis shows that persistence in historical norms can potentially prevent women from realizing gains in access to consumption resources within the household even in the event of beneficial environmental shocks.
    Keywords: India; widows; private assignable goods; rainfall shocks; historical persistence
    Date: 2021–12–06

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.