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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2022‒02‒14
657 papers chosen by |
| By: | Rapone, Tancredi |
| Abstract: | This paper uses optical character recognition (OCR) to analyze the production of books in the US over 1790 to 1870 using copyright title pages taken from the online archives of the Library of Congress. We construct national time series of book production over this period which show an uptake in per-capita terms in 1830, around the starting point of the US’ industrial revolution. We break down the production of books into topics using keywords for 8 topics: science, religion, novel, invention, diffusion, business, philosophy and textbook. On this basis we show that the composition of book production by topics is stable over time, except for textbooks and novels which show a persistent increase over the whole period both in relative and absolute terms. This pushes back the beginning of the growth in US human capital before the first reliable data on schooling and literacy starting in 1870. We thus offer mild support to an interpretation of US growth over the 19th century based on the expansion of knowledge and capabilities, while conceding that the link between the content of books and industrialization is tenuous. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113448&r= |
| By: | Greif, Gavin |
| Abstract: | The role of merchants in shaping the German industrialization is often acknowledged, yet scarcely researched. A small number of case-studies of merchant families and individual towns have shown the significance of merchants as capital providers, industrial entrepreneurs, and political actors, yet no supra-local study into the wider significance of this social group for the German economy exists. This dissertation introduces a new source, a business directory from 1798, to construct micro-data on 6099 individual merchant and manufacturing enterprises across 56 towns in Germany. The resulting dataset is the earliest supraregional evidence on the spatial variation of urban merchant communities in Germany to date. Furthermore, this paper provides a detailed overview of the types of eighteenth-century merchants and analyses under what exact circumstances merchants became industrial entrepreneurs. Using multivariate OLS regressions, it finds a strong association between a greater share of proto-firms in a town in 1798 and its growth rates across the nineteenth century. The findings point to a hitherto overlooked link between the qualitative structure of late eighteenth century merchant activity, the elasticity of supply of early industrial entrepreneurship, and the spatial variation of urban growth experiences in nineteenth century Germany |
| JEL: | N14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113346&r= |
| By: | Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | This chapter written for the Oxford Handbook of Historical Political Economy argues that you cannot understand the history of globalization without taking political factors into account; and that you cannot understand the history of comparative economic development without taking globalization into account. Globalization compels us to take geography seriously and to think more like historians. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20220075&r= |
| By: | Hutkova, Karolina |
| Abstract: | Today India is among the major sugar producers and sugar-making has a long tradition, yet the adoption of modern sugar technologies was delayed. Which factors underpinned this? This article examines the attempts of European sugar entrepreneurs to adopt new sugar technologies in 1830s–1840s Bihar. Its findings correspond with recent literature on Indian economic development which emphasises the role of declining agricultural productivity in economic stagnation in the colonial period. This article supports the conclusions that low agricultural productivity was the outcome of inadequate investment on the part of the British Empire. It also highlights that in the case of commercial crops–such as sugar–investment into new technologies with potential for increasing productivity was hindered by British trade policies. As British imperial policies gave preference to the welfare of the British consumer, lacked consideration for colonial manufacturing, they did not create a beneficial environment for long-run investment projects. |
| Keywords: | Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110453&r= |
| By: | Fernando Collantes; Vicente Pinilla |
| Abstract: | In recent years, a perception has spread in Spain that our process of rural depopulation is so extreme and overwhelming that it is unique, anomalous we could say, in Europe. In this paper we argue that this perception is not correct. Even though there are very striking contrasts between the population densities of different parts of the country, this does not mean that Spain has undergone a particularly anomalous or exceptional process of rural depopulation during the modern era. After revising the empirical evidence about rural population dynamics in Europe and in a set of large European countries, we identify those traits that were characteristic of the Spanish case and explain them in their historical context. |
| Keywords: | rural depopulation, historical demography, rural history |
| JEL: | J11 N34 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:2201&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal) |
| Abstract: | The experience of the war economy during the First World War in the United States reinforced the influence of arguments in favour of managed competition. By extending the principles of scientific management to the economy as a whole, this approach aimed to coordinate firms through the exchange of information, which was seen as a necessity both in terms of economic efficiency and response to cyclical fluctuations. Such a stance greatly reduced the application of competition rules. Nevertheless, the proposals that emerged during the 1929 crisis – leading to the reproduction of the war-economy experience in peacetime at the risk of steering the US economy towards the formation of cartels under the supervision of the federal government – were rejected by President Herbert Hoover, despite his defence of a model for regulated competition in the 1920s. The paradox was President Franklin D. Roosevelt's resumption of these projects within the framework of the First New Deal. This paper deals with the arguments that were put forward to evade competition rules and explains why the Democratic administration ultimately decided to return to a resolute enforcement of the Sherman Act. |
| Keywords: | Information Exchange,Scientific Management,Competition Rules,Cartelization,War Economy |
| Date: | 2020–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03052417&r= |
| By: | Andrea Incerpi; Barbara Pistoresi; Francesco Salsano |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence on the relationship between military spending and the expansion of other governmental budgetary heading and tax revenues from the Unification of Italy (1861) up to the end of World War II. Mainly in the years preceding 1922, investments in education and social transfers to families moves together with the defense spending. That is, positive changes in defense implies both an increase in education and in transfers. Moreover, transfers also have a compensatory role during recessive phases. Positive changes in defence do not crowd out the investment in capital spending, while disinvestments in defense are associated with an increase in the investment in capital. The pro-cyclical behavior of the tax revenues is compatible with a debt financing dynamic of many government expenditures. Although our analytic narrative is not universally valid, it can support the persistent centrality of external war in the discontinuous development and expansion of the Italian central State, with some exceptions explained by the historical experience. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:153&r= |
| By: | Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Stavros Poupakis (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex); Peter Ekamper (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Govert E. Bijwaard (Institute for Fiscal Studies); L.H. Lumey (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates impacts, mechanisms and selection e?ects of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944 - May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using di?erence-in-di?erences and triple di?erences research designs, we show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being overweight at age 18, and that this e?ect is partly accounted for by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Moreover, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and ?nd evidence of both selection and scarring e?ects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions. |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/36&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Jan Carlo Punongbayan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Part of a proposed anthology, this article provides a concise review of the economic performance during the period of the Marcos dictatorship (1972-1985) from a comparative historical perspective. We examine the external events and internal policy responses that made possible the high growth in the early years of martial law and show that these are integral to explaining the decline and ultimate collapse of the economy in 1984-1985. The macroeconomic, trade, and debt policies pursued by the Marcos regime—particularly its failure to shift the country onto a sustainable growth path—are explained in the context of the regime’s larger political-economic programme of holding on to power and seeking rents. |
| Keywords: | martial law, Philippine economy, economic history, political economy |
| JEL: | N15 O53 P48 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202107&r= |
| By: | Jäger, Simon; Pischke, Jörn Steffen |
| Abstract: | This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics honoured David Card of the University of California, Berkeley “for his empirical contributions to labour economics”, and Joshua Angrist of MIT and Guido Imbens of Stanford University “for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”. We explain how the laureates revolutionised the analysis of causal relationships in empirical economics through the methodology of natural experiments. Three examples from the German labour market on the effects of minimum wages, code-termination and unemployment insurance illustrate how natural experiments yield new insights, which can form the foundation for evidence-based policy advice. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113362&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article discusses the institutionalization of the field of Law and Economics in the United States from the post-war period to the Reagan administration. It emphasizes the role of pro-market corporate foundations in the development of Law and Economics. It analyses individual and collective trajectories, including research projects, training programs led with judges, as well as leading academics contributions and judicial and administrative careers. It ultimately focuses on the impact of this institutionalization on judging methods |
| Keywords: | Law and Economics,Foundations,Antitrust,Conservatism |
| Date: | 2021–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03124774&r= |
| By: | Milen Jissov (BNU-HKBU United International College, China) |
| Abstract: | If every age has its signature works, The Captive Mind by Czesław Miłosz is such a work for the Cold War. Published in 1953 and valorized in the West as an incisive critique of the Soviet Bloc, it analyzes the inner world of Eastern Europeans caught in the grip of Stalinist tyranny. This subjectivity is what Miłosz calls “the captive mind.†But with the Cold War long over, it is time to rethink and reassess his classic. This is the purpose of this paper. Casting a critical look at it, the paper argues that The Captive Mind is afflicted and debilitated by an implicit, but all too serious, aporia. As a part of his analysis of Eastern Europe’s incarcerated mind, Miłosz articulates a conception of human nature. In a profound irony, however, that conception aligns with—harmonizes with—his portrayal of the evil Stalinist tyranny enthralling Eastern Europe. Unwittingly, Miłosz in effect naturalizes that tyranny. He suggests that, rather than being evil, it is all too human—corresponding to elemental propensities of human nature. This paper problematizes this dramatic contradiction. Ultimately, it reflects on the implications of this momentous paradox for understanding the character and history of political oppression. |
| Keywords: | Czeslaw Milosz, Tyranny, Totalitarianism, Subjectivity, Eastern Europe, The Cold War |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0088&r= |
| By: | Roy, Tirthankar |
| Abstract: | The proposition that Useful and Reliable Knowledge (URK) produced divergent patterns of long-term economic growth implies that such knowledge had weak agency in countries that fell behind. This article rejects such a theory on the evidence of colonial India. Indo-European contacts activated transfer, transplantation, and adaptation in URK; however, the impact was uneven within India. Despite boosting productivity in manufacturing and consumption, large areas were left untouched. These contrasts highlight the differentiated impact of URK on production conditions in India and question its transferability and mode of knowledge exchange under colonialism. |
| JEL: | N15 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113442&r= |
| By: | Samah Nassar (October University for Modern Sciences and Arts, Faculty of Arts and Design, Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | Digital technologies have revolutionized the normal practices in various industries. The short films industry has equally experienced innumerable changes since its first inception in 1910. The industry has seen changes ranging from noble changes from creative processes, ideas or script writing, and featuring and characterization. This paper sets out to assess the historical development of short films from the early 19th Century until the present age, and the future prospects in the film industry. With new ways of sharing the short films varying from social media platforms, direct media, theatres and live performances, filmmakers have multiple opportunities to craft and showcase their talents in short films. Besides, short films strongly influence society as they impact the audience’s future interactions and thinking patterns, especially using the themes or content relayed in the short films. Therefore, short films play a great role in shaping society’s morals and people’s behaviors. Recently, short films were explored to showcase the United Nations’ universal goals to promote social cohesion among the global population. The paper concludes by analyzing the challenges and future potential of the short films industry, especially educating and entertaining the masses. |
| Keywords: | short films, global awareness, UN SDG’s, future, humanity |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0077&r= |
| By: | Cristian Dan (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In the early stages of the evolution of the human species, feelings and sensations played a particularly important role in adapting and sustaining existential activities and how to integrate man in relation to the surrounding nature. Of all the feelings, the predominant psychological characteristic was the feeling of anger, coming from the need to preserve, to defend life and things acquired, in front of the attackers who could be both fierce animals and other fellows of the same species. For millions of years, these mechanisms have contributed to the intrinsic and external development of society, being present in human interactions within tribes, cities, villages and cities. Being a sentimental trait developed over such a long period of time, the feeling of anger, inscribed in human DNA, is nowadays a dangerous factor, generating antisocial behaviors and actions that are subject to Criminal Law, which we often learn to control it. The article aims to analyze this mechanism, from a historical, psychological and cultural point of view in relation to Criminal Law and the facts determined by this feeling, highlighting, on the one hand, the crimes that can be committed under its rule, and on the other part, the methods of preventing and combating them identified in today’s society. |
| Keywords: | anger, morality, genetics, criminal law, crime, psychology, embezzlement, theft, violence, history, legal system, conduct, prevention, combat, rape |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0090&r= |
| By: | Wang, J.; Alessi, R.; Angelini, V. |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of in utero exposure to adverse events on late life diabetes, cardiovascular disease risks and cognition deficiency. We merge data on the regional violence during the Cultural Revolution and the excessive death rates during the Chinese Great Famine with data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)survey. Results show that female babies who were exposed in utero to the famine have higher diabetes risks, while male babies who were exposed to the Cultural Revolution are shown to have lower cognitive abilities. |
| Keywords: | early life conditions; chinese great famine; cultural revolution; diabetes; cardiovascular disease; cognition; |
| JEL: | I10 J11 J14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:22/02&r= |
| By: | Eric Edwards; Martin Fiszbein; Gary Libecap |
| Abstract: | The contributions of Harold Demsetz offer key insights on how property rights and transaction costs shape economic organization. This guides our comparison of agricultural organization in two comparable regions, the Argentine Pampas and the US Midwest. In the US, land was distributed in small parcels and actively traded. In the Pampas, land was distributed in large plots and trade was limited because land was a social and political asset as well as commercial. We analyze why this led to persistently larger farms, specialization in ranching, and peculiar tenancy contracts in Argentina, relative to the US. Our empirical analysis, based on county-level data for both regions, shows that geo-climatic factors cannot explain the observed differences in agricultural organization. We discuss implications for long-term economic development in Argentina. |
| JEL: | L23 N51 N56 Q15 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:100&r= |
| By: | Giancarlo Bertocco; Andrea Kalajzić |
| Abstract: | To hypothesize the existence of a relationship between money and savings means questioning a fundamental pillar of the mainstream economic theory: the concept of neutrality of money. According to the traditional theory economic phenomena such as savings can be defined independently from money. The objective of this work is to show that savings cannot be defined independently from money and that savings must be considered as a monetary phenomenon. The paper consists of two parts. Starting from Adam Smith’s analysis and continuing up to the approaches developed by contemporary economists, in the first part we summarize the most significant aspects and the limitations of the mainstream theory. In the second part we specify the reasons of the non-neutrality of money and of the monetary nature of savings. |
| Keywords: | Savings, money, development, Keynes, Schumpeter |
| JEL: | B12 B13 B52 E12 E44 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2206&r= |
| By: | Patsali, Sofia (Université Côte d'Azur, GREDEG, and Université de Strasbourg, BETA, CNRS France); Pezzoni, Michele (Université Côte d'Azur, GREDEG, CNRS, Observatoire des Sciences et Techniques, HCERES, OFCE, Sciences Po, and ICRIOS, Bocconi University, Italy); Visentin, Fabiana (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of research independence during the PhD period on students' career outcomes. We use a unique and detailed dataset on the French population of STEM PhD students who graduated between 1995 and 2013. To measure research independence, we compare the PhD thesis content with the supervisor's research. We employ advanced neural network text analysis techniques evaluating the similarity between the student's thesis abstract and supervisor's publications during the PhD period. After exploring which characteristics of the PhD training experience and supervisor explain the level of research similarity, we estimate how similarity associates with the likelihood of pursuing a research career. We find that the student thesis's similarity with her supervisor's research work is negatively associated with starting a career in academia and patenting probability. Increasing the PhD-supervisor similarity score by one standard deviation is associated with a 2.1 percentage point decrease in the probability of obtaining an academic position and a 0.57 percentage point decrease in the probability of patenting. However, conditional on starting an academic career, PhD-supervisor similarity is associated with a higher student's productivity after graduation as measured by citations received, network size, and probability of moving to a foreign or US-based affiliation. |
| Keywords: | Research independence, Early career researchers, Scientific career outcomes, Neural network text analysis |
| JEL: | D22 O30 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021036&r= |
| By: | Kolev, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Oskar Anderson (1887-1960) gehörte zu den Gründungsvätern der Ökonometrie. Dieser Aufsatz fokussiert auf die Relevanz seines statistischen und ökonometrischen Werkes für die Konjunkturforschung in der Zwischenkriegszeit. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Periode zwischen 1923 und 1942, die er als russischer Emigrant in Bulgarien verbrachte und als seine wissenschaftlich produktivste Periode gilt. In dieser Zeit veröffentlichte Anderson bahnbrechende Beiträge, in denen er ökonomische Theorie, empirische Methoden und angewandte Arbeit an Datensätzen verknüpfte. Er vernetzte sich international in den Kontexten der jungen theoretischen und politikberatenden Ökonometrie, wobei die Verbindung zum Wiener Institut für Konjunkturforschung und dessen Direktor Oskar Morgenstern besonders intensiv war. 1935 gründete Anderson mit Kofinanzierung der Rockefeller Foundation das "Statistische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Staatlichen Universität Sofia" (SWIFO) und blieb Direktor des SWIFO bis 1942. Anschließend wurde er Leiter der Abteilung für Ostforschung am Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft. Ab 1947 wirkte er als Ordinarius in München und kämpfte für die Verankerung der quantitativen Methoden in der Ökonomen-Ausbildung an westdeutschen Fakultäten. In den späten 1940er Jahren war Anderson an der Gründung des ifo Instituts beteiligt. Sein Sohn Oskar Anderson jun. (1922-2006) trug ab den frühen 1950er Jahren maßgeblich zur Konstruktion und Verfeinerung des ifo Konjunkturtests bei. |
| JEL: | B22 B23 B53 C32 N14 O14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:198&r= |
| By: | Foszto Arpad (Aurel Vlaicu University of Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | There is today an optimistic approach, on a widespread scale, to every issue of life, which in appearance seems good and commendable. This is a result of a general secular mindset that reinterprets love and empathy unsuccessfully, and that is the case even when dealing with the religious experience. But the Apostle Paul challenged the first century’s Greek and Roman polytheism in a way that should challenge our twenty-first century’s approach to religious experience. For him, the demons were real, and they were powerful and fearful. Augustine of Hippo, in De civitate Dei contra paganos, was thinking alike, and this was the general view during the most part of history. This paper aimed to reclaim into the taxonomy of the religious experience the place rightly owned by the actors of the dark side. |
| Keywords: | preternatural, demons, taxonomy, religious experience |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0104&r= |
| By: | Clémence Thebaut (NET - Neuroépidémiologie Tropicale - CHU Limoges - Institut d'Epidémiologie Neurologique et de Neurologie Tropicale - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - GEIST - Institut Génomique, Environnement, Immunité, Santé, Thérapeutique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, UNILIM - Université de Limoges) |
| Abstract: | This article is part of a research project which seeks to draw on the methods and tools put forward by Michel Foucault to shed light on all areas of discussion concerning the economic assessment of health. It examines the epistemological basis of preference elicitation methods, based on welfare economics, which are used today to assess the benefits of health care. To do so, this research draws on Foucault's episteme set out in The Order of things. More specifically the article considers that the rejection of interpersonal comparisons that foreshadowed the marginalist revolution and the transition to ordinal measures of utility during the 19th century can be explained by the shift from the classical episteme to a modern episteme. The question of the cardinal or ordinal measurement of utility is central to the economic assessment of health care. Indeed, the methods for valuing health benefits, especially using QALYs, are similar to cardinal measures, in contrast to the paradigm of the welfare economics of which they are meant to be part. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un projet de recherche visant à mobiliser les méthodes et outils proposés par Michel Foucault pour apporter un éclairage sur un ensemble de discussions que soulève l'évaluation économique en santé. Nous nous intéressons ici à l'ancrage épistémologique des méthodes de révélation des préférences individuelles issues de l'économie du bien-être, qui sont aujourd'hui utilisées pour valoriser les bénéfices en santé, en nous appuyant sur la typologie des épistémès de Foucault dans les Mots et les choses. Plus précisément, nous envisageons que le rejet des comparaisons interpersonnelles, que préfigure la révolution marginaliste et la transition vers une mesure ordinale des utilités, s'explique par le passage d'une épistémè classique à une épistémè moderne. La question du caractère cardinal ou ordinal de la mesure de l'utilité reste centrale pour l'évaluation économique en santé. En effet, les méthodes d'évaluation des bénéfices en santé, notamment au moyen des QALY, se rapprochent d'une mesure cardinale, contrairement au paradigme de la nouvelle économie du bien-être dans lequel elle est censée s'inscrire. |
| Keywords: | Economie du bien-être,Evaluation économique en santé,Epistémologie,Foucault |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03499454&r= |
| By: | Ioan-Gheorghe Rotaru (Timotheus Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The natural purpose of an educational institution is to awaken, to wise, cultivating the intellectual skills in the heart of the learner/student, along with his need to learn all his life. School is also important for us as people because it helps the progress of society, increases trust in people and teaches us to make and maintain friendships, and helps us learn how to work together as a team, which is the main foundation of any successful society. Without school, knowledge could not spread as quickly, and our access to new ideas and people could be hampered. A schoolless world would create difficulties and would prevent the dispersion of economic growth, tolerance and appreciation of our fellow human beings. The purpose of the school is to turn mirrors into windows. Nothing can develop our intellect more than a book, yet in the 21st century, it is read less and less because technology has dethroned the book. |
| Keywords: | school, education, culture, skills, book, technology |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0094&r= |
| By: | Bowers, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | The migrant families who build India’s cities do so to meet practical and ritual aspirations rooted in the village, undergoing spatial and temporal fragmentation to maintain rural longevity and the possibilities of ritual time. This article contributes an alternative position to linear-framed presumptions of migration and urbanity, illustrating instead how everyday experiences of dislocation can be productive through labor, timespace, and imagination; bridging the gulf between residence on urban construction sites in Bengaluru, southern India, and desired village homes. However, lived experiences of dislocation remain stratified by gender and class, leading to highly conjugated experiences of precarity, mobility, and possibility. Despite the urban ambivalence felt by women and girls as a result, a shared experience of dislocation enables entire families to undertake the grueling yet regenerative work of circular migration, ensuring the continuation and renewal of village life and ritual time through its incompleteness. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113446&r= |
| By: | Irene Mosca (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Anne Nolan (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin. Department of Economics Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | A large body of research in economics and other disciplines considers the role of early-life circumstances in shaping later-life outcomes. The foetal origins hypothesis establishes that certain health conditions in later adulthood can be linked to in-utero development. In this paper, we contribute to the evidence on the foetal origins hypothesis by examining the later-life impact of a rubella outbreak that occurred in Ireland in 1956. Rubella is a contagious viral disease that displays mild symptoms and is generally inconsequential in childhood or adulthood. However, a rubella infection in early pregnancy poses a significant risk of damage to the foetus. Matching the outcomes of individuals born in 1955 to 1958 who are in the 2016 Irish Census to the county-level rubella incidence rate that was prevailing when respondents were in utero, we find that a 1% increase in the rubella incidence rate when in utero is associated with a 0.03% to 0.17% increase in the probability of having lower levels of educational attainment, being in poor health and having a disability in later life |
| Keywords: | in-utero; rubella; Ireland; later-life health |
| JEL: | I10 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n314-22.pdf&r= |
| By: | Nitin Kumar Bharti (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sutanuka Roy |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of judges' exposure to communal violence during early childhood on pretrial detention rates by exploiting novel administrative data on judgments and detailed resumes of judicial officers born during 1955-1991. Our baseline result is that judges exposed to communal violence between ages 0 and 6 years are 16% more prone to deny bail than the average judge, with the impact being stronger for the experience of riots between ages 3 and 6 years. The observed judicial stringency is driven by childhood exposure to riots with a higher duration of state-imposed lockdowns and low riot casualties. |
| Keywords: | Early-childhood,Pretrial Detention,Judicial Bias,Communal Violence Early-childhood,Communal Violence |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03537653&r= |
| By: | Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico; Gian Luca Tedeschi |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acqui- sition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citi- zenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the ac- quisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors - conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs|that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship, Trust, Slave Trade, Migration, Ethnicity, Conflict, Kinship, Witchcraft. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wchild:100&r= |
| By: | Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of St. Andrews) |
| Abstract: | It is widely accepted that investing in public infrastructure promotes economic development. However, there is little awareness of the prevalence of unfinished infrastructure projects and their consequences. In this paper, I study the effect of unfinished sewerage infrastructure on early-life mortality in Peru. I compile several sources of administrative panel data for 1,400 districts spanning 2005–2015, and I rely on the budgetary plans and timing of expenditure for 6,000 projects to measure unfinished projects and those completed in a given district. I document that mid-construction abandonment and delays are highly prevalent. I exploit geographical features and partisan alignment to instrument for project implementation. Surprisingly, I find that unfinished sewerage projects increased early-life mortality, driven by lack of water availability, water-borne diseases and accidents. I also show that while unfinished projects pose hazards to the population, completed sewerage projects decrease early-life mortality, in line with public health studies in advanced economies during the previous centuries. |
| Date: | 2020–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/32&r= |
| By: | Graziella Bertocchi; Angelo Dimico; Gian Luca Tedeschi |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acqui- sition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citi- zenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. Wefind that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the ac- quisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is cofirmed. Alternative factors- conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs|that, through trust, may ffect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship, Trust, Slave Trade, Migration, Ethnicity, Conflict, Kinship, Witchcraft. |
| JEL: | J15 K37 N57 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:152&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); John Van Reenen (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We examine the economic analysis of the relationship between innovation and product market competition. First, we give a brief tour of the intellectual history of the area. Second, we examine how the Aghion-Howitt framework has influenced the development of the literature theoretically and (especially) empirically, with an emphasis on the “inverted U”: the idea that innovation rises and then eventually falls as the intensity of competition increases. Thirdly, we look at recent applications and development of the framework in the areas of competition policy, international trade and structural Industrial Organization. |
| Date: | 2021–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/43&r= |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel A. Kamhöfer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Martin Karlsson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Therese Nilsson (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal e?ect of school absence on long-run socio-economic outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We ?nd that absence signi?cantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, ?nal educational attainment and labor income throughout the life-cycle. The ?ndings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labor market performance. |
| Date: | 2021–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/06&r= |
| By: | Christos Mavridis (Middlesex University London); Orestis Troumpounis (University of Padova and Lancaster University); Maurizio Zanardi (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | What is the role of the militarization of law enforcement agencies in the U.S. in the 2020 wave of protests? This paper shows that aggregate transfers of military equipment up to 2019 increased both the incidence and number of protests in a given county in 2020. However, militarization is not a significant determinant neither of violent protests nor of COVID-related protests. Hence, with our results mostly driven by protests related to the BLM movement, we argue that the 2020 wave of protests is directly linked to the hotly debated 1033 program, largely responsible for the excessive militarization of local law enforcement agencies in the past decades. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0122&r= |
| By: | Paul Carrillo-Maldonado; Michalis Nikiforos |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947-2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) remains constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since; it is slightly wage-led over the last fifteen years. |
| Keywords: | Wage-led; Profit-led; Distribution; Growth; Time-Varying Parameters (VAR) |
| JEL: | E11 E12 C11 C3 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1001&r= |
| By: | Carlo Koos; Richard Traunmüller |
| Abstract: | Wartime sexual violence is widespread across conflict zones and thought to leave a disastrous legacy for survivors, communities, and nations. Yet, systematic studies on i) the prevalence and ii) the social and political consequences of wartime sexual violence are fraught with severe data limitations. Based on individual-level survey evidence from three conflict-affected populations in Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, and Sri Lanka, we make two contributions. |
| Keywords: | Wartime sexual violence, List experiment, Post-conflict, Civic participation, Ethnic relations, Trust, War, Violence |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-11&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | I provide a formal explanation of the relationship between the virtues of prudence, justice, and benevolence described by Adam Smith in the Theory of moral sentiments and connect these with the themes Smith subsequently discusses in the Wealth of nations. I contend that the other-regarding concerns Smith discusses as internally held virtues in TMS are presumed addressed instead by formal mechanisms in the WN -- particularly the third-party institutions of law and anonymous market exchange. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith Problem; virtues; institutions; self-interest; altruism |
| JEL: | B12 B15 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202106&r= |
| By: | Èric Roca Fernández (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Annalisa Frigo |
| Abstract: | According to economic theory, access to actionable threats for women should increase their bargaining power in their negotiations with men. We show how female-only communities in medieval Belgium - known as beguinages - served to protect women and relate their presence to higher levels of gender equality centuries after their closure. |
| Abstract: | Donner aux femmes les moyens de mettre à exécution leurs menaces, devrait, selon la théorie économique, donner plus de poids aux femmes dans leurs négociations avec les hommes. Nous montrons comment des communautés exclusivement féminines dans la Belgique médiévale - dites béguinages - ont permis de protéger les femmes. Nous constatons que, des siècles après leur fermeture, les villes où les béguinages s'étaient établis sont devenues plus égalitaires. |
| Keywords: | gender gap,religion,institutions,culture,economic persistence |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03499520&r= |
| By: | Campos, Nauro F.; Macchiarelli, Corrado |
| Abstract: | Despite numerous studies about core-periphery in monetary unions, few focus on their dynamics. This paper (i) presents new theory-based, continuous and dynamic measures of the probability of a country being classified as core or periphery; (ii) estimates the determinants of the changes in this probability over time and across countries; and (iii) uses the Phillips-Sul convergence panel framework to investigate the behaviour of core and periphery groups over time. Our main results indicate that the post-EMU decrease of the core-periphery gap that we document was mainly driven by the adoption of the euro and by increasing competition (lower mark-ups). |
| Keywords: | competition; convergence; core-periphery; Euro; symmetry |
| JEL: | C50 E30 N10 F40 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113423&r= |
| By: | Persson, Maria (Department of Economics, Lund University); Soegaard, Christian (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Welander Tärneberg, Anna (Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence of a positive effect of major infrastructure development on international trade, using the opening of the fixed link between Denmark and Sweden in 2000 (The Oresund Bridge) as a quasi-natural experiment. Our Synthetic Control Method (SCM) constructs a counterfactual Danish-Swedish trade relationship, which represents bilateral trade in the absence of the bridge. Evaluating actual trade against its synthetic counterpart for the period 2001-2008 shows that Danish-Swedish trade was 24.6% larger than it would have been in the absence of the bridge using our preferred specification. The result is robust to standard sensitivity checks. We supplement our analysis with a standard Difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator, which uses fixed effects. The DiD estimator yields a slightly larger trade effect of 26.7%, and is robust to a number of sensitivity analyses, including estimation at the product level. Both our SCM and DiD point to the trade-boosting effects being gradual. |
| Keywords: | Fixed link; bridge; tunnel; transport infrastructure; trade; Synthetic Control Method; Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_003&r= |
| By: | Rowena Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); George Stoye (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ben Zaranko (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of changes in public long-term care spending on the use of public hospitals among the older population in England, and the cost and quality of this care. Mean per-person long-term care spending fell by 31% between 2009/10 and 2017/18 as part of a large austerity programme, but cuts varied considerably geographically. We instrument public long-term care spending with predicted spending based on historical national funding shares and national spending trends. We ?nd public long-term care spending cuts led to substantial increases in the number of emergency department (ED) visits made by patients aged 65 and above, explaining between a quarter and a half of the growth in ED use among this population over this period. The e?ects are most pronounced among older people and those living in more deprived areas. This also resulted in an increase in 7-day ED revisits and emergency readmissions. However, there was no wider impact on inpatient or outpatient hospital use, and consequently little impact on overall public hospital costs. These results suggest that the austerity programme successfully reduced combined public spending on health and long-term care, but had adverse e?ects on the health of vulnerable users. |
| Date: | 2020–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/40&r= |
| By: | Michaela Kecskésová (Department of Economics, Masaryk University); Štěpán Mikula (Department of Economics, Masaryk University) |
| Abstract: | Malaria – a disease caused by parasitic microorganisms of the Plasmodium genus – has been shown to impede economic growth and socioeconomic development in the long-term. In this paper we use annual regional data from India to show that malaria outbreaks are associated with an immediate decline in economic development approximated by night light intensity. We find the association to be significant for outbreaks of both the globally most prevalent Plasmodium species: Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The estimated associations are quite sizeable. Severe outbreaks correlate with night light reductions of 5% of the standard deviation for P. falciparum and 4% for P. vivax. |
| Keywords: | Malaria, Economic development, India, Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, Night light intensity |
| JEL: | I15 R11 R12 N55 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2022-03&r= |
| By: | David Ardia; Keven Bluteau; Mohammad Abbas Meghani |
| Abstract: | Using the structural topic model, we present a landscape of academic finance. We analyze more than 40,000 titles and abstracts published in 32 finance journals over a period ranging from 1992 to 2020. We identify the research topics and explore their relation and prevalence over time and across journals. Our analyses reveal that most journals have covered more topics over time, thus becoming more generalist. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.14902&r= |
| By: | Claver Sanz, Raúl |
| Abstract: | This work explores the degree of intergenerational transmission of education for a sample of more than 19 developing countries for the geographical area that makes up the Asian region, over a time horizon from 1870 to 2010. The quantification of this transmission has revealed considerably high intergenerational correlation indices of more than 0.5, showing a very high transmission of education from one generation to the next, severely constraining patterns of evolution and development and thus stagnating overall growth. In this sense, it documents how this trend towards a lack of intergenerational educational mobility has been one of the reasons for the stagnation of economic growth and development in this region. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Transmission, Education, Asia. |
| JEL: | I24 I25 N30 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111792&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Benveniste (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Renaud Coulomb (University of Melbourne, Department of Economics); Marc Sangnier (University of Namur & Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.) |
| Abstract: | State awards to civilians are a widespread social phenomenon across space and time. This paper quantifies the impact of State awards given to Directors on the stock value of their firms. We link a comprehensive dataset of recipients of the Légion d'honneurthe most prestigious official award in France-over the 1995-2019 period to Board positions in French listed firms. We document large abnormal returns in the stocks of recipients' firms at the date of the award, suggesting that awards signal valuable access to policy-makers. This interpretation is corroborated by the absence of any market reaction for recipients who were already identified before award receipt as being close to the Government. |
| Keywords: | Awards, State Honors, Symbolic Capital, Political Connections |
| JEL: | D71 D72 G14 G18 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2201&r= |
| By: | Loretta J. Mester |
| Abstract: | Despite the challenges, U.S. economic growth was very strong last year. Real GDP grew at a 5.5 percent pace, the highest annual pace since 1984. Firms added a record 6.7 million jobs to their payrolls and the unemployment rate moved down to about 4 percent, close to its pre-pandemic level. The economy’s strength reflected very robust demand by households and businesses. This demand was supported by extraordinary fiscal policy and monetary policy, as well as the deployment of vaccinations, which allowed the economy to reopen more fully. But this strong demand came at the same time there were constraints on product supply and labor supply. The imbalances between supply and demand have put significant upward pressures on prices and wages. Inflation readings in the U.S. are at their highest levels in nearly 40 years, and nominal wages are accelerating at a faster pace than we have seen in decades. |
| Date: | 2022–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:93697&r= |
| By: | 鈴木, 智大; Suzuki, Tomohiro; 積, 惟美; Seki, Koreyoshi |
| Abstract: | 本研究は、その他の包括利益と負債コストとの関係性を実証的に分析している。分析の結 果、債権者はOCIのボラティリティをリスクとして捉え、翌期の利子率に反映させる可 能性が示唆された。また、債権者はとくに為替換算調整勘定の変動をリスクとして利子率 に反映させることが判明した。さらに、他の財務諸表を活用して推定した疑似OCIを用 いた分析では、近年においてOCIと疑似OCIの情報内容がほぼ同質的であることを明 らかにしている。 |
| Keywords: | その他包括利益, 負債コスト, リスク・レリバンス |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hmicwp:248&r= |
| By: | Doruka, Ömer Tuğsal; Pastore, Francesco |
| Abstract: | In this study, for the first time, to our knowledge, we use the propensity score matching algorithm to estimate the probability to remain 'stuck in the status-quo ante' across generations in Egypt. We use repeated cross-sectional data relative to a 20-year period from 1998 to 2018 to build transition matrices of intergenerational occupational mobility. The findings of the econometric analysis hint at a low degree of occupational mobility, with children of fathers in the agricultural sector or holding a blue- or white-collar job remaining linked to the profession of their fathers in most cases and experiencing only rarely upward mobility from agricultural to blue- and white-collar jobs. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational occupational mobility,Status quo bias,Propensity score matching,Egypt |
| JEL: | C35 D64 J24 J62 L16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1018&r= |
| By: | Lamprini Rori; Vasiliki Georgiadou; Costas Roumanias |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a new database (PVGR) on political violence in Greece from 2008 to 2019. PVGR monitors violent episodes reported mainly in online and printed media, stemming both from the far right and the far left. It provides the first existing measure of political violence in Greece for a timespan of eleven years. The uniqueness of our database is two-fold: first, it covers both ideological kinds of extremism: right wing and left wind; second, it registers the whole stairway of low-intensity violent escalation, from physical attacks to terrorism. We gather data on all the internal-supply aspects of political violence: we identify its size, the actors involved and their ideological background, the targets. We further provide measures of frequency, intensity, escalation and geographical distribution, which permit us to configure political violence in crisis-ridden Greece. We find an important increase in political violence in the period under study. We contribute to the literature of political violence in several ways. First, we offer the first comprehensive database of political violence in Greece. Second, we typologize evidence in analytical categories and measures, thus contributing to the classification of the phenomenon beyond ideological doctrines. Third, we clarify similarities and differences between the two kinds of violence, which implies specific policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Intensity Violence, political extremism, radical right, radical left |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:167&r= |
| By: | Adam Gorajek; Benjamin A. Malin |
| Abstract: | Using a novel meta-analytical method, Brodeur et al. (2016) argue that hypothesis tests in top economic journals have exaggerated levels of statistical significance. Brodeur et al. (2020) apply the same method to another sample of hypothesis tests, obtaining similar results. We investigate the reliability of the method by highlighting questionable assumptions and compiling a dataset to examine their merits. Our findings support the original conclusions. |
| Keywords: | Researcher bias; Research credibility; Research replicability; Z-curve |
| JEL: | A11 C13 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93460&r= |
| By: | Ciprian Corneliu Ciurea (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | During the communist period, Romanian authorities faced a problem specific to the Adventist Church - the Adventist children did not attend school on Saturdays. Although they used the most varied methods of persuasion and coercion of children and parents to solve this problem, the authorities have not managed to fully defeat their resistance. This was the "big Adventist problem" that caused serious problems both to the Department of Cults and to the Securitate bodies, the Ministry of Education, the County School Inspectorates, the organizations of pioneers and youth, and the schools. |
| Keywords: | church, Adventists, pupils, students, communism, repressive measures, Saturday |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0105&r= |
| By: | Carrera, Leandro; Angelaki, Marina |
| Abstract: | Pension policy is a highly political issue across Latin America. Since the mid-2000s, several countries have re-reformed their pension systems with a general trend toward more state involvement, yet with significant variation. This article contends that policy legacies and the institutional political setting are key to understanding such variation. Analyzing the cases of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, this article shows that where a weak legacy, characterized by low coverage and savings rates, a weakly organized pension industry, and strong societal groups that oppose the private system, combines with a strong institutional setting, characterized by a government with large support in Congress and where the president concentrates decisionmaking, re-reform outcomes may lead to the outright elimination of the private pillar. Conversely, where a strong legacy combines with a weak institutional setting, re-reform outcomes will tend to maintain the private pillar and expand only the role of the public one. |
| Keywords: | Pension reform; policy change; Latin America; institutions; policy legacy; CUP |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112478&r= |
| By: | George Agwu (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AE-FUNAI - Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo); Oussama Ben Atta (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de l'ESC Pau - ESC Pau) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of geographical proximity to universities on educational attainment in Nigeria. We relate individuals level of schooling obtained from three rounds of the Nigeria's Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) to spatial distance to university measured by pairing residential and university campuses GPS coordinates. To identify the effect of the distance to university, we exploit the theory of residential sorting to instrument residential proximity to university. Specifically, we instrument distance to university drawing on variations in households' proximity to state boundary posts and neighbourhood population density. The instrumental variable estimates show a negative and significant effect of distance revealing that geographical constraints during teenage years represent a barrier to the subsequent human capital acquisition. Additional results from a difference-indifference estimation strategy indicate that a large scale establishment of universities had beneficial trickle-down effects by decreasing the intention to drop out of secondary school, supporting evidence of the role of geographical constraints in the accumulation of human capital in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Educational attainment,Distance to university,University attendance,School dropout,Nigeria |
| Date: | 2021–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03492963&r= |
| By: | Francisco Amaral; Martin Dohmen; Sebastian Kohl; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | Houses are the largest asset for most households in the United States, as is the case in many other countries as well. Within countries, there is substantial regional variation in house prices—compare real estate values in Manhattan, New York City, with those in Manhattan, Kansas, for example. But what about returns on investment? Are long-run returns on real estate investment—the sum of price appreciation and rental income flows—higher in superstar cities like New York than in the rest of the country? In this blog post, we present new and potentially surprising insights from research comparing long-run returns on residential real estate in a nation’s largest cities to those experienced in the rest of the country (Amaral et al., 2021), covering the U.S. and fourteen other advanced economies over the past century. |
| Keywords: | housing returns; spatial economics; household finance |
| JEL: | E2 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93656&r= |
| By: | Sabeen Azam (Greenwich University, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | In the International scenario, the world order is shifting from time to time. From post-modernism to the current modern era, the terms and relations of the countries have been gone through changes. The previous First, Second and Third world concepts are still going through alteration. The term "third world" was coined to designate nations that did not develop economically capitalist (the first world) nor was part of the communist system of the Soviet Union (second world). The term became inappropriate and then later disappeared. But the recent history of each country has forced us to rethink about the nations who are considered within or outside the group. Based on the characteristics which each class possesses out of the all the existing countries of the world. The main international organization United Nations must revisit the reforms and ought to bound the member states to follow international law. As the exploitations and balance of the power should be maintained. The key role is of the United Nations to maintain the development in all countries of the world. |
| Keywords: | Term, Third World, United Nations, Role, Development |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0108&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro; Jacopo Magurno; Romano Tarsia |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the evolution of the literature on Central Bank Independence (CBI) focusing on its metrics as well as on its empirical association with macroeconomic variables. Part One describes the evolution of the CBI indicators, while Part Two analyses the econometric studies devoted to shed light on the relationships between CBI and macroeconomic performances. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Central Bank Independence, Inflation, Growth, Sacrifice Ratio, Public Finance, Financial Stability |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21151&r= |
| By: | Weilun Wu (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This study replicates Leigh and Jencks’ (2007) analysis of the relationship between income inequality and mortality. Using L&J’s preferred specification, I am able to closely reproduce their original findings after reconstructing their data from original sources. When I use multiple imputation instead of their method of linear interpolation, I largely confirm their results. When I extend their data from 2003 to 2018, I again do not find a significant relationship between income inequality and mortality. As a result, I conclude that my replication exercise confirms L&J’s results, providing even stronger evidence for the view that income inequality is not adversely related to mortality. |
| Keywords: | Income Inequality, Health, Mortality, Multiple Imputation |
| JEL: | I12 N30 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:22/01&r= |
| By: | Swallow, Brent M. |
| Abstract: | Collaborative international research on tenure dates back at least to the early 1960s when the Land Tenure Centre was established at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and conducted some studies in collaboration with CGIAR social scientists. CGIAR interest in tenure increased in the early 1990s when natural resource management was strengthened as a component of the CGIAR agenda and the Centers on forests, agroforestry, and water (CIFOR, ICRAF, and IWMI) entered the system. CAPRi began to operate as a systemwide research program on tenure and collective action in the mid-1990s, and became PIM Flagship 5 on governance of natural resources in 2011. From 2021, a renewed research agenda on tenure is essential for advancing the One CGIAR mission of “science and innovation that advance transformation of food, land and water systems in a climate crisis.†|
| Keywords: | WORLD, tenure security, land tenure, sustainable development, investment, research, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379954&r= |
| By: | Stock-Homburg, Ruth |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:129822&r= |
| By: | Bruno Jeandidier (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Cécile Bourreau-Dubois (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Mansuy (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437613&r= |
| By: | Clarissa Lotti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Giancarlo Spagnolo (Stockholm University, University of Rome Tor Vergata, EIEF, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | An influential study by Bandiera, Prat and Valletti (2009) exploits the introduction of a central purchasing agency in Italy to identify the amount and sources of public waste. Among other findings, it estimates that purchasing through a central agency directly saves 28% on prices. We find that centralized prices also have significant indirect effects, leading to a 17.7% reduction among non-centralized ones. The indirect effects of centralization appear driven by informational externalities – rather than an improved outside option – on less competent public buyers purchasing more complex goods. Accounting for indirect savings also increases the estimate of direct ones. |
| Keywords: | Centralization, Informational externalities, Procurement, Public Contracts |
| JEL: | D44 H11 H57 H83 L38 L88 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:532&r= |
| By: | Tiago Moreira Ramalho |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/337630&r= |
| By: | Edouard Ribes (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple economic model describing retirees' use of bequests. The model assumes that retirees need long term care and have preferences regarding the source of this support. Support can either be bought from the market (at a fixed rate) or sourced from within their family and compensated through bequests. When calibrated, the model shows that for individuals to get at least 1h of daily care, they must, independently of their education level, save about 20% of their pension in the early years of their retirement. However, differences in the source of support appear between non educated and educated households. It is indeed much easier to get support from family members in non-educated households compared to educated ones. Those results suggest that non educated households are also less likely to contract financial insurance products for long term care as they can easily leverage informal arrangements (i.e. their family). |
| Keywords: | Bequests,Inheritances,Intergenerational transfers,Wealth inequalities,Wealth management |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03498481&r= |
| By: | Isaac Antwi-Boasiako (School of Media, Technological University Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | The concept of public diplomacy is one of the trending approaches in modern international relations and diplomacy. Communicating and engaging effectively with the foreign public in a particular nation by a government to achieve its foreign policy objective is every government’s goal. The field of public diplomacy as an academic discipline in Ghana in particular and Africa has not received much attention compared to the Western World. This article attempts to bridge this gap by opening Ghana’s public diplomacy to academic scrutiny that has, as yet, been underdeveloped. This paper’s principal objective is to bring to light the public diplomacy instruments used by the indefatigable first president of Ghana, Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, to propagate his pan-Africanism foreign policy in the 1960s against capitalism and communism after Ghana’s independence. It also looks briefly at Nkrumah’s general foreign policy agenda through the lens of public diplomacy. Methodologically, it uses content analysis of documents to explore how Nkrumah adopted the public diplomacy tactics during his presidency to sell his foreign policy. The article explores the topic under the theoretical framework of Golan’s Integrated Public Diplomacy model. It concludes that public diplomacy under Kwame Nkrumah should be the foundation and ignite its incorporation into Ghana’s tertiary education and current foreign policy strategies. |
| Keywords: | public diplomacy, communication, Kwame Nkrumah, pan-Africanism, foreign policy |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0067&r= |
| By: | Alain Raybaut (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03505462&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper opens up a study of economic convergence in Asia. This convergence refers to the ability of developing economies to catch up with the developed ones in terms of levels and growth rates of real per capita GDP. The study uses the lens of neoclassical growth models, both the basic models of Robert Solow and Trevor Swan, along with the models of Robert Lucas Jr. and Paul Romer in endogenous growth theory to interpret observed growth in Asia. Data are taken from the 45 developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank. The study supports conditional convergence but not absolute convergence. That is the lagging economies can catch up with the leading economies provided the former can adopt advanced technologies, such as, those that feature human-capital investments, learning-by-doing and increasing returns from knowledge accumulation. |
| Keywords: | economic convergence; neoclassical growth models; Asia |
| JEL: | N15 O11 O42 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202009&r= |
| By: | Ziesemer, Thomas (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We update the Gini coefficients of education to include the year 2015, added to the Barro-Lee data set recently. A panel analysis shows that every five years education inequality falls by 2.8 percentage points. A stable average value is predicted to be 0.22. Kernel densities loose their twin peaks when going from 1955 to later years. |
| Keywords: | Gini coefficients of education, new data, trend, stability, changing global distribution |
| JEL: | E24 I24 I25 O15 Y1 |
| Date: | 2021–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021047&r= |
| By: | Radicati, Alessandra |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the aspirational urban form of the ‘world-class city’ is produced from within the city itself. Rather than focusing on global competition between cities, the analysis considers how local actors in key industries discursively and materially produce the world-class city through their labor. The analytic of connection is introduced as central to understanding how world-class city-making projects are achieved. Based on ethnographic fieldwork in Colombo’s high-end real estate sector, the article examines how a successful broker creates and manages connections across different scales and registers. It focuses on three key areas: (1) the rhetorical connections drawn between luxury real estate and national development; (2) the connections created between wealthy foreign clients and local property owners and (3) the work of connecting disparate narratives about supply and demand for luxury housing. I highlight that against the backdrop of considerable economic and political uncertainty, connections are valuable even if they do not result in immediate profit. Offering a glimpse into the world of white-collar professionals in the luxury real estate industry, this paper underscores that world-class city-making projects are embedded in local realities even as they reflect generalized patterns of urban development. |
| Keywords: | real estate; connection; world-class city; aspiration; labor; Colombo; Sri Lanka; PhD award; Sage |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112566&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the reliability of information sources on choices under ambiguity. Using the Ellsberg's (1961) framework it studies two conjectures. First, the conditions of appearance of the Ellsberg paradox when the information source offers two probable proportions of red and black balls in two urns. Second, the consequence on choices of a non-reliable information source. This source proposes a unique proportion of red and black balls against an unknown one (inside box 1). |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty theory,decision theory,ambiguity aversion,Information I1,I18,I19,D80,D81,D83 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502603&r= |
| By: | Petre Buneci (Ecological University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The plurality of criminals over time has evolved, so that today we have a natural plurality, constituted plurality, occasional plurality or criminal participation. Thus, within the criminal participation, the accomplices carry out a secondary activity in the sense of facilitating, helping or promising the perpetrator (co-perpetrators) who commit the act directly. This activity of the accomplice takes place before or at the same time as the commission of the criminal act. In judicial practice, the modalities of complicity (previous, concomitant, moral, and material, negative) in which a person intentionally facilitates or helps the perpetrator to commit a criminal act have been shown. |
| Keywords: | plurality, criminal participation, complicity, authors, co-authors, Criminal Code |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0107&r= |
| By: | Rute Martins Caeiro |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the pathways of technology diffusion through social networks, following the experimental introduction of new technologies in Guinea-Bissau. In the context of an agricultural extension project, we document both the direct effects of this intervention and subsequent diffusion from trainees to the wider community. In order to test for social learning, we exploit a detailed census of households and social connections across different social dimensions. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Technology, Knowledge diffusion, Social networks, Technological innovations, Learning |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-7&r= |
| By: | Marion Seigneurin (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Chaire Good in Tech - TSP - Télécom SudParis - Institut Louis Bachelier - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Télécom Paris); Christine Balagué (MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Chaire Good in Tech - TSP - Télécom SudParis - Institut Louis Bachelier - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Télécom Paris); Kevin Mellet (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Sommée de se transformer, l'industrie publicitaire a engagé depuis quelques années une démarche – relativement nouvelle pour le secteur – de responsabilisation. L'impact sociétal de la publicité numérique se décline autour de plusieurs points de tension tels que les algorithmes, le concept de privacy, les formats de publicités digitales ou encore l'impact écologique de cette dernière. L'ampleur de ces enjeux questionne et souligne l'importance d'une pratique responsable de la publicité numérique. Une telle responsabilité émerge chez certains acteurs de la publicité numérique et la dynamique d'autorégulation du secteur peut désormais porter les initiatives existantes sur le devant de la scène pour leur permettre de jouer un rôle prépondérant dans la transformation des pratiques du secteur. L'objectif de ce rapport est de revenir sur les dynamiques de l'écosystème de la publicité numérique, de mettre à jour les controverses historiques et émergentes autour du rôle et de l'impact de la publicité mais également d'établir un panorama des pratiques responsables existantes et des recommandations à ce sujet. Une série d'une vingtaine d'interviews menées auprès des acteurs de la publicité numérique responsable (agences, régies publicitaires, entreprises AdTech, plateformes, acteurs de l'autorégulation, associations et chercheurs), nourrit ce rapport et nous permet également de soulever les enjeux émergents de la publicité numérique responsable pour en proposer une analyse plus approfondie. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03395443&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Fredrik N. G. (Department of Economics, Lund University); Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The EU’s fiscal rules, set out in the Maastricht Treaty of 1993 and the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997, are anchored to GDP. The debt ceiling and the deficit threshold are set to 60 percent and 3 percent of GDP, respectively. Recently, prominent economists and policymakers, have argued that that the debt ceiling should be raised due to falling bond yields. By extension, this argument suggests a shift from GDP anchoring to bond yield anchoring of the EU fiscal framework. We discuss the risks of basing the fiscal rules on the bond yield rather than on the GDP. While such a change would provide short-run relief to highly indebted EU member states, it implies high long-run risks to fiscal sustainability should bond yields rise in the future. We conclude that GDP serves as a better anchor for the EU fiscal framework than the bond rate under present circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal framework; European Union; ECB; Stability and Growth Pact; secular stagnation; modern monetary theory; government debt; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E50 E60 H60 N10 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; David O. Lucca; James Vickery |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, with a particular emphasis on agency residential MBS in the United States. We discuss the institutional environment, security design, MBS risks and asset pricing, and the economic effects of mortgage securitization. We also assemble descriptive statistics about market size, growth, security characteristics, prepayment, and trading activity. Throughout, we highlight insights from the expanding body of academic research on the MBS market and mortgage securitization. |
| Keywords: | mortgage finance; securitization; agency mortgage-backed securities; TBA; option-adjusted spreads; covered bonds |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93695&r= |
| By: | Basualdo, Marcos Antonio |
| Keywords: | Centralismo; Concentración; Administración Pública; |
| Date: | 2020–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3594&r= |
| By: | Kusserow, Kim Marei |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305615&r= |
| By: | Antoine Missemer (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Le lexique économique employé pour désigner des composantes de la nature est souvent accusé de biaiser nos représentations et nos modes de gestion de l'environnement. Contribuant au processus de commodification de la nature, il aurait même sa part dans la dégradation des écosystèmes. Cet article revient sur l'histoire des concepts de services écosystémiques et de capital naturel pour mieux comprendre comment s'est forgée, il y a parfois longtemps, l'articulation lexicale entre économie et écologie. Il en ressort une lecture plus nuancée que celle d'un simple impérialisme scientifique opéré par l'économie sur nos représentations du monde naturel. Forcée au dialogue, la discipline économique n'apparaît pas si imperméable que cela à la réalité des dynamiques biophysiques et écosystémiques, à condition de connaître la portée véritable des mots que l'on emploie. |
| Keywords: | capital naturel,services écosystémiques,commodification,performativité,impérialisme scientifique,histoire de la pensée économique |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03502292&r= |
| By: | Federico M. Ferrara; Donato Masciandaro; Manuela Moschella; Davide Romelli |
| Abstract: | Previous scholarship on central bank accountability has generally focused on monetary authorities' deeds and words while largely ignoring the other side of the accountability relationship, namely politicians’ voice on monetary policy. This raises a fundamental question: what are central banks held accountable for by elected officials? To answer this question, we employ structural topic models on a new dataset of the Monetary Dialogues between the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) from 1999 to 2019. Our findings are twofold. First, we uncover differences in how MEPs keep the ECB accountable for its primary, price stability objective. We show that European politicians also attempt to keep the central bank accountable for a broader set of issues that are connected with, but distinct from, the central bank's primary goal. Second, we show that unemployment is a key explanatory variable for the political voice articulated by individual MEPs in accountability settings. In particular, higher rates of domestic unemployment lead MEPs to devote less voice on issues related to the ECB’s price stability mission. These findings reveal the existence of a "political" Phillips curve reaction function, which enriches our understanding of the principal-agent accountability relationship between politicians and central bankers. |
| Keywords: | Accountability; European Central Bank; politicians; European Parliament |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21159&r= |
| By: | Lokdam, Hjalte |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the Euro crisis, the mission statement on the European Central Bank's (ECB) website was changed from ‘Our mission is to serve Europe's citizens’ to ‘Our mission is to serve the people of Europe’. This article situates this discursive shift within a broader change of the ECB's self-presentation in public discourses and explores its meaning in terms of political theory and public law. The article argues that the shift represents a response to the perceived necessity of reimagining the ECB's foundation of legitimate governmental authority following its exercise of emergency powers during the Euro crisis. The discourse emphasizes an organic link between the ECB and ‘the people of Europe’ as a political subject able to authorize previously unauthorized governmental practices such as the outright monetary transactions programme. It reflects, furthermore, a new governing philosophy that stresses flexibility and discretion rather than strict adherence to rules in the ECB's exercise of power. |
| Keywords: | European Central Bank; Euro crisis; OMT; sovereignty; emergency politics |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111873&r= |
| By: | Carl Grekou |
| Abstract: | This publication, accompanying the 2021’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2020. Overall, changes in currency misalignments during 2020 have been rather modest except few EMEs that registered important movements. Among advanced economies, the picture was broadly unchanged. The US dollar registered a slight increase of its overvaluation; the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen registered an upward movement that led to the reduction of the undervaluations. The euro area is again featured with various situations with undervaluations prevailing in Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands while Belgium, France, Italy were close to their equilibrium. In EMEs, the Brazilian real registered the largest swings against the US dollar and have consequently seen a dramatic increase of its undervaluation. The Turkish lira continued its plunge against the US dollar and also increased its undervaluation. In contrast, the Chinese renminbi remained relatively stable and appeared broadly in line with its fundamental value. |
| Keywords: | EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Global Imbalances |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E6 F3 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Italo Colantone; Gianmarco Ottaviano; Piero Stanig |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the globalization backlash, seen as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. Using newly assembled data for 23 advanced democracies, we document a protectionist and isolationist shift in electorates, legislatures, and executives from the mid-1990s onwards. This is associated with a noticeable protectionist shift in trade policy –although with some notable nuances– especially since the financial crisis of 2008. We discuss the economics of the backlash. From a theoretical perspective, we highlight how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when taking into account the ‘social footprint’ of globalization. Then, we review the empirical literature on the drivers of the backlash. Two main messages emerge from our analysis: (1) globalization is a significant driver of the backlash, by means of the distributional consequences entailed by rising trade exposure; yet (2) the backlash is only partly determined by trade. Technological change, crisis-driven fiscal austerity, immigration, and cultural concerns are found to play an important role in creating politically consequential cleavages. Looking ahead, we discuss possible future developments, with specific focus on the issue of social mobility |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Social Footprint, Backlash |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21165&r= |
| By: | Cowan, Robin (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, BETA, University of Strasbourg, and CREST, University of Stellenbosch); Müller, Moritz (BETA, University of Strasbourg); Kirman, Alan (Ecole des Hautes Etudes de Sciences Sociales); Barnard, Helena (GIBS, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | Because discrimination is systemic, efforts to counter it, and thus policy interventions, must also be systemic. The South African case is particularly instructive because it is so extreme: Apartheid deliberately excluded the vast majority of the population, black South Africans, from fully participating in society, but post-Apartheid efforts to achieve transformation have had limited success. This paper hones in on a key enabler of transformation, the university system. A successful transformation will be characterized by a larger academic system to accommodate the many previously disadvantaged students, by growing scientific quality and by more black academics so that the proportion of black to white academics resembles that of South Africans generally. This will require more black South Africans to do PhDs, to select academic careers, and to be selected into the top South African universities. Policy interventions can be developed for each of these many constituent elements, but it is not known whether policies will be complementary or contradictory. To determine the outcomes of different options, this paper uses computer simulations, calibrated with evidence from South Africa since the end of Apartheid. The simulations reveal very few direct trade-offs, although different combinations result in different benefits. By highlighting the (larger and smaller) gains and costs of different combinations of policies, the paper can therefore support informed policy-making about a highly complex issue. |
| Keywords: | discrimination; transformation; universities, South Africa |
| JEL: | I2 J15 J18 J7 |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021040&r= |
| By: | Emla Fitzsimons (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Marcos Vera-Hernandez (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | We show that children who are born at or just before the weekend are less likely to be breastfed, owing to poorer breastfeeding support services in hospitals at weekends. We use this variation to estimate the effect of breastfeeding on children’s development in the first five years of life, for a sample of births of low educated mothers. We find large effects of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive development but no effects on health or non-cognitive development during the period of childhood we consider. Regarding mechanisms, we study how breastfeeding affects parental investments and the quality of the mother-child relationship. |
| Date: | 2021–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/38&r= |
| By: | Uta Bolt (Institute for Fiscal Studies and UCL); Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London and University of Cambridge); Jamie Hentall-MacCuish (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Cormac O'Dea (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Using data covering a single cohort’s ?rst 55 years of life, we show that most of the intergenerational elasticity of earnings (IGE) is explained by di?erences in: years of schooling, cognitive skills, investments of parental time and school quality, and family circumstances during childhood. To decompose the fraction of the IGE explained by each of these channels, we implement a multi-level mediation analysis combined with a latent factor framework that accounts for measurement error. Multilevel mediation analysis allows us to assess not only the direct e?ect of each channel on the IGE, but also its indirect e?ects working through the other channels, thus providing an in-depth understanding of the link between parents’ and children’s earnings. Of these channels, we show that the main driver of the IGE is increased levels of parental investments received by children of high income parents early in their lives, which encourages greater cognitive development and lifetime earnings. |
| Date: | 2021–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/07&r= |
| By: | Zimmermann, Julia; Carter, Alex |
| Keywords: | hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery; OUP deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112751&r= |
| By: | José Manuel Fernández Polanco; Ángel Herrero Crespo |
| Abstract: | Los efectos de la información difundida en los medios de comunicación de masas acerca de la industria de la acuicultura sobre el comportamiento de compra se contrastan por medio de la inclusión de un índice que mide la intensidad y el contenido de las noticias publicadas en la función de demanda de dorada en España durante un período de cinco años. Los resultados del ajuste de un VAR confirman observaciones previas en el mercado de salmón que sugieren un efecto positivo, aunque débil, sobre las cantidades demandadas. |
| Keywords: | Acuicultura, medios de masa, demanda, dorada |
| JEL: | M31 Q13 Q22 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ovr:docfra:2201&r= |
| By: | Ravipati, Kaushik; Chen, Yunxiao; Manns, Joseph R. |
| Abstract: | Objective: To assess whether diabetes alone or in association with Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype increases the risk of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) diagnosis. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 33,456 participants from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center database. Results: Participants with one or two APOE ε4 alleles had 2.71 (CI:2.55–2.88) and 9.37 (CI:8.14–10.78) times higher odds of AD diagnosis, respectively, relative to those with zero ε4 alleles. In contrast, diabetic participants showed 1.07 (CI:0.96–1.18) times higher odds of AD relative to nondiabetics. Diabetes did not exacerbate the odds of AD in APOE ε4 carriers. APOE ε4 carriage was correlated with declines in long-term memory and verbal fluency, which were strongly correlated with conversion to AD. However, diabetes was correlated with working memory decline, which had a relatively weak correlation with AD. Conclusions: Unlike APOE ε4, there was little evidence that diabetes was a risk factor for AD. |
| Keywords: | Alzheimer’s Disease; APOE ε4 allele; diabetes; long-term memory; structural equation modeling; working memory |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113607&r= |
| By: | Bluhm, Richard (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Leibniz University Hannover, Institute of Macroeconomics); Lessmann, Christian (Technische Universität Dresden, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, and CESifo Munich); Schaudt, Paul (University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study the link between subnational capital cities and urban development using a global data set of hundreds of first-order administrative and capital city reforms from 1987 until 2018. We show that gaining subnational capital status has a sizable effect on city growth in the medium run. We provide new evidence that the effect of these reforms depends on locational fundamentals, such as market access, and that the effect is greater in countries where urbanization and industrialization occurred later. Consistent with both an influx of public investments and a private response of individuals and firms, we document that urban built-up, population, foreign aid, infrastructure, and foreign direct investment in several sectors increase once cities become subnational capitals. |
| Keywords: | capital cities, administrative reforms, economic geography, urban primacy |
| JEL: | H10 R11 R12 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021039&r= |
| By: | Jose Enrique Devesa Carpio (Universitat de València); Maria del Mar Devesa Carpio (Universitat de València); Francisco Borja Encinas Goenechea (Universidad de Extremadura); Inmaculada Domínguez Fabián (Universidad de Extremadura); Miguel Ángel García Díaz (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos); Robert Meneu Gaya (Universitat de València) |
| Abstract: | One of the aspects of the pension reform that has been under negotiation since mid-2021 is the modification of the Special Scheme for Self-Employed Workers (Régimen Especial de Trabajadores Autónomos RETA). According to the news that has spread, the new RETA may entail important changes with respect to the previous system, such as: a) The real returns declared for tax purposes will be taken into account, not being able to choose the contribution bases as was the case until now; b) the contribution payment will be set based on a series of return intervals (steps), which implies the disappearance of a single rate of contribution, as was the case up to now; c) a long transitory period is established (from 2023 to 2031) for its final implementation.Using a quota system and a function by steps means that not all affiliates are going to be subject to the same contribution rate, which implies a change with respect to what happened until now in the RETA and in the General Scheme (Régimen General).Although the application of the new quota table that appeared in January 2022 represents a slight improvement of the RETA, it continues to present important deficiencies in terms of the fairness of the system in several areas: a) within the RETA itself; b) regarding the General Scheme; c) during the transitional period, prominently.We propose a simple and transparent solution of using tax returns as a contribution base and continuing to apply a single contribution rate for all self-employed workers. In addition, this rate should be similar to that of the General Scheme. This would avoid most of the problems that we have detected and would make it possible to maintain tax returns as a reference, which we consider to be an important advance for the equalization with the General Scheme. Uno de los aspectos de la reforma de las pensiones que se está negociando desde mediados de 2021 es la modificación del Régimen Especial de Trabajadores Autónomos (RETA). Según las noticias que han trascendido, el nuevo RETA puede suponer importantes cambios respecto al sistema anterior, pudiendo destacarse: a) Se tendrán en cuenta los rendimientos reales declarados fiscalmente, no pudiendo elegir las bases de cotización como ocurría hasta ahora; b) la cuota a pagar se fijará en función de una serie de intervalos (escalones) de rendimientos, lo que implica la desaparición de un tipo de cotización único, como ocurría hasta ahora; c) se establece un periodo transitorio largo (desde 2023 a 2031) para su implantación definitiva.Utilizar un sistema de cuotas y una función por escalones supone que no todos los afiliados van a estar sujetos al mismo tipo de cotización, lo que implica una quiebra respecto a lo que ocurría hasta ahora en el RETA y en el Régimen General.Aunque la aplicación de nueva tabla de cuotas aparecida en enero de 2022 supone una ligera mejora del RETA, éste sigue presentando importantes deficiencias en cuanto a la equidad del sistema en varios ámbitos: a) dentro del propio RETA; b) respecto al Régimen General; c) durante el periodo transitorio, de manera destacada.Proponemos como solución sencilla y transparente la de utilizar los rendimientos fiscales como base de cotización y seguir aplicando un tipo de cotización único para todos los autónomos y que, además, sea similar al del Régimen General. Esto evitaría la mayor parte de problemas que hemos detectado y permitiría mantener como referencia los rendimientos fiscales, que consideramos que es un avance importante en la equiparación con el Régimen General. |
| Keywords: | Sistema de pensiones; Equidad; Régimen General; Tipo de cotización Pension system; Equity; General Scheme; Contribution rate |
| JEL: | H55 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpivie:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Nagui Bechichi (INSEE); Julien Grenet (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Georgia Thebault (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03501118&r= |
| By: | Florent Venayre (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française) |
| Abstract: | L'Autorité polynésienne de la concurrence (APC) confirme, avec une troisième décision relative au secteur de la distribution de détail à dominante alimentaire, que l'année 2021 marque l'évolution de sa pratique en matière de contrôle des aménagements commerciaux (décision n° 2021-SC-04 du 3 novembre 2021 relative à l'ouverture d'un magasin de commerce de détail sous l'enseigne Super Moz d'une surface de vente de 790 m² situé dans la commune de Te'Avaro à Moorea). |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03502177&r= |
| By: | Ayad El Baz (UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali); Zakariae Belmkaddem (UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali) |
| Date: | 2020–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03426972&r= |
| By: | Nurdaulet Abilov (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Aizhan Bolatbayeva (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the modified expectation-maximization algorithm of Banbura and Modugno (2014) to estimate a factor model using an incomplete and mixed-frequency dataset for Russia. We estimate and check the forecast accuracy of factor models that differ in the number of factors, the lag structure of the factors, and the presence of autocorrelation in the idiosyncratic component. We choose the best model using the root mean squared forecast error and use the model to compute news contributions to forecast revisions of GDP growth in Russia around crisis periods. We find that the benchmark model with a medium-size dataset and four factors outperforms all other versions of the factor model, simple AR(1) and random walk models. The news contributions to GDP growth revisions around economic downturns in Russia show that the benchmark factor model is extremely good at capturing the impact of new data releases on GDP growth revisions. |
| Keywords: | Factor model; EM-algorithm; Nowcasting; Business cycle index; Russia. |
| JEL: | C53 C55 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajx:wpaper:18&r= |
| By: | Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony Lepinteur (Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We use data from the COME-HERE longitudinal survey collected by the University of Luxembourg to assess the effects of the policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on life satisfaction in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden over the course of 2020. Policy responses are measured by the Stringency Index and the Economic Support Index from the Blavatnik School of Government. Stringency is systematically associated with lower life satisfaction, controlling for the intensity of the pandemic itself. This stringency effect is larger for women, those with weak ties to the labor market, and in richer households. The effect of the Economic Support is never statistically different from zero. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Life satisfaction,Policy stringency,Economic support |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03467211&r= |
| By: | Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich and ifo Institute; CESifo); Ludger Woessmann (University of Munich and ifo Institute; Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo, IZA, and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | We show that the electorate’s preferences for using tuition to finance higher education strongly depend on the design of the payment scheme. In representative surveys of the German electorate (N>18,000), experimentally replacing regular upfront by deferred income-contingent payments increases public support for tuition by 18 percentage points. The treatment turns a plurality opposed to tuition into a strong majority of 62 percent in favor. Additional experiments reveal that the treatment effect similarly shows when framed as loan repayments, when answers carry political consequences, and in a survey of adolescents. Reduced fairness concerns and improved student situations act as strong mediators. |
| Keywords: | tuition; higher education finance; income-contingent loans; voting. |
| JEL: | H52 I22 D72 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:19&r= |
| By: | Dispan, Jürgen; Frieske, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Die Perspektiven vieler Standorte von Automobilzulieferern sind im Zeichen der Transformation unsicher geworden. Die Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs wird forciert und der Pkw-Absatz verschiebt sich schneller als erwartet zu batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugen. Eine strategische Neuorientierung auf Produkte jenseits des Verbrenners ist für Zulieferer zur Notwendigkeit geworden. An den Standorten geht es darum, den Fade-out konventioneller Produkte mit dem Fade-in neuer Produkte zu koordinieren und die Beschäftigten dabei mitzunehmen. Ein wichtiges Handlungsfeld für Mitbestimmungsträger ist das Einfordern nachhaltiger Standortstrategien. |
| Keywords: | Transformationsprozess,E-Mobilität,Elektroauto,alternative Antriebe,Betriebsrat |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:234&r= |
| By: | Nagui Bechichi (INSEE); Julien Grenet (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Georgia Thebault (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie l'impact de l'introduction de la plateforme Parcoursup en 2018 sur la ségrégation à l'entrée des études supérieures en France en fonction du niveau scolaire, de l'origine sociale et du genre des étudiants. À l'aide des données administratives de pré-inscription du supérieur de 2013 à 2019, ces phénomènes sont mesurés au moyen d'indices d'exposition normalisés. En 2017, les néo-bacheliers se répartissent inégalement dans les formations d'enseignement supérieur en fonction de leur niveau scolaire, de leur origine sociale et de leur genre. La moitié de la ségrégation scolaire et de la ségrégation sociale provient de la répartition des étudiants entre les grandes catégories de formations (licence, classes préparatoires, BTS, IUT, etc.), tandis que la ségrégation femmes-hommes s'effectue davantage entre filières d'études au sein de chacune de ces catégories. Une grande partie de la ségrégation à l'entrée dans l'enseignement supérieur est déjà présente dans les voeux exprimés par les candidats, alors que les classements des candidats opérés par les formations n'y contribuent que faiblement. La mise en place de Parcoursup en 2018 a eu un fort impact sur les pratiques de classement des formations non sélectives (licences universitaires) : la part des mentions bien ou très bien est ainsi passée de 29 % à 59 % parmi les candidats recevant en premier une proposition d'admission. Cependant, les niveaux de ségrégation mesurés selon les trois dimensions étudiées sont globalement stables. Dans les licences en tension, les nouvelles règles de classement des candidats ont eu un impact substantiel, celles-ci ne disposant pas d'une capacité d'accueil suffisante pour admettre tous ceux souhaitant s'y inscrire. La dernière partie de l'étude montre que la mise en place de Parcoursup a modifié de manière plus nette la répartition des étudiants entre les formations d'Île-de-France, territoire où se concentrent de nombreuses licences en tension et où la ségrégation sociale et scolaire est historiquement élevée. |
| Keywords: | Enseignement supérieur,Procédures d’affectation,Ségrégation scolaire |
| Date: | 2021–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03501119&r= |
| By: | Han Gao; Mariano Kulish; Juan Pablo Nicolini |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Monetary aggregates; Money demand |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93496&r= |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Florens (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anna Simoni (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role played by identification in the Bayesian analysis of statistical and econometric models. First, for unidentified models we demonstrate that there are situations where the introduction of a non-degenerate prior distribution can make a parameter that is nonidentified in frequentist theory identified in Bayesian theory. In other situations, it is preferable to work with the unidentified model and construct a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for it instead of introducing identifying assumptions. Second, for partially identified models we demonstrate how to construct the prior and posterior distributions for the identified set parameter and how to conduct Bayesian analysis. Finally, for models that contain some parameters that are identified and others that are not we show that marginalizing out the identified parameter from the likelihood with respect to its conditional prior, given the nonidentified parameter, allows the data to be informative about the nonidentified and partially identified parameter. The paper provides examples and simulations that illustrate how to implement our techniques. |
| Keywords: | Minimal Sufficiency,Exact Estimability,Set identification,Dirichlet Process,Capacity functional,Nonparametric models. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03504692&r= |
| By: | 高橋, 宏承; Takahashi, Hirotsugu |
| Abstract: | 本研究では，客観的な概念として扱われる孤立を用いて，組織で孤立が発生するメカニズムとその要因について組織構成員のパーソナリティの観点から分析を行う．そのためにネットワーク論の視座を孤立研究と統合し，マルチエージェント・シミュレーション手法を分析手法として採用した．その結果，主に高外向性構成員が孤立し，それらの構成員の多い組織に孤立構成員が多いという知見が得られた．また，低外向性構成員による小集団の規模拡大による可視性を通じて，孤立構成員が生じるかが影響を受けることが明らかになった．, Analyze the mechanisms and factors that cause isolation in organizations, from the perspective of the personalities, based on the objective concept of isolation. For this purpose, we integrated the perspective of network theory with that of isolation research and adopted a multi-agent simulation method as an analysis method. As a result, we found that highly extroverted members were main isolated members, and that highly extroverted organizations had many isolated members. On the other hand, it was found that whether isolated members arise is affected through the visibility of small groups by increasing their size due to low extraversion members. |
| Keywords: | 組織内孤立, 孤独感, ネットワーク, マルチエージェント・シミュレーション, 外向性, Isolation, Loneliness, Network, Multi-agent Simulation, Extraversion |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hmicwp:249&r= |
| By: | Louis Brule Naudet (PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | To speak of leximetry in the context of an impact analysis in contract law would consist in applying econometric principles to legal problems in order to empirically test different provisions and to interpret their understanding by the actors of the economic system. In this context, a general research problem could be formulated: is the reform of contract law a source of clarification or, on the contrary, of incomprehension for legal practitioners with regard to the judicial reading? The aim would be to examine the underlying issues, in particular the understanding of the reform by drafters of contracts, by introducing a quantitative analysis of the number of appeals at first instance on the issues arising from the reform, and its proper application by judges, by reference, for example, to the number of appeals lodged by the parties after referral to the court, as well as to the number of appeals to the Court of Cassation and the number of judgments in favour of, or against, resolution of the dispute. To this end, the present research methodology project aims to introduce to the jurist and the economist, different perspectives of mathematical analysis in Python 3.8, in order to lay the foundations of a new discipline in France, with great potential for the consolidation of legal security and the interpretation in terms of efficiency, of the production of law by the legislator. Table of contents : 1- Fractality of the legal phenomenon and mathematization of practice: an infinitely fragmented and statistically appropriable science ; 1.1- Ambiguity, legal security and statistical modeling: a common paradigm for law and computer science ; 1. 2- From the standardization of a large set of categorical variables to the realization of unbiased indicators of legal effectiveness ; 2- Towards a leximetry methodology for impact analysis of reforms: the example of ordinary least squares regression ; 2.1- Simple linear regression and OLS estimator, analysis of both strengths and limitations ; 2.2- Introduction to multiple regression by gradient descent algorithm . |
| Abstract: | Parler de leximétrie dans le cadre d'une analyse d'impact en droit des contrats consisterait à appliquer des principes économétriques à des problèmes juridiques afin de tester empiriquement différentes dispositions et d'interpréter leur compréhension par les acteurs du système économique. Dans ce contexte, une problématique générale de recherche pourrait être formulée : la réforme du droit des contrats est-elle une source de clarification ou, au contraire, d'incompréhension pour les praticiens du droit au regard de la lecture judiciaire ? Il s'agirait d'examiner les enjeux sous-jacents, notamment la compréhension de la réforme par les rédacteurs de contrats, en mettant en place une analyse quantitative du nombre de recours en première instance sur les questions issues de la réforme, et de sa bonne application par les juges, en se référant par exemple au nombre de recours formés par les parties après saisine de la juridiction, ainsi qu'au nombre de recours en cassation et au nombre d'arrêts favorables ou défavorables à la résolution du litige. A cette fin, le présent projet de méthodologie de recherche vise à présenter au juriste et à l'économiste, différentes perspectives de l'analyse mathématique en Python 3.8 afin de poser les fondamentaux d'une discipline nouvelle en France et porteuse d'un grand potentiel pour la consolidation de la sécurité juridique et l'interpretation en terme d'efficacité, de la production du droit par le législateur. Table des matières : 1- Fractalité du phénomène juridique et mathématisation de la pratique : une science infiniment fragmentée et statistiquement appropriable ; 1.1- Ambiguïté, sécurité juridique et modélisation statistique : un paradigme commun au droit et à l'informatique ; 1. 2- De la standardisation d'un large ensemble de variables catégorielles à la réalisation d'indicateurs non biaisés d'efficacité juridique ; 2- Vers une méthodologie leximétrique pour l'analyse d'impact des réformes : l'exemple de la régression par moindres carrés ordinaires ; 2.1- Régression linéaire simple et estimateur MCO, analyse des forces et des limites ; 2.2- Introduction à la régression multiple par algorithme de descente de gradient. |
| Keywords: | leximetric,contract law,statistics,french law,methodology of research,Leximétrie,Statistiques,Droit des contrats,Méthodologie de la recherche |
| Date: | 2022–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03506558&r= |
| By: | Simona Malovana; Martin Hodula; Josef Bajzik; Zuzana Gric |
| Abstract: | For almost two decades, quantifying the effect of changes in bank capital and capital regulation on lending has been one of the most important research questions. Yet, the empirical literature has remained largely fragmented in terms of the estimated parameters. In this paper, we collect more than 1,600 estimates on the relationship between bank capital and lending and construct 40 variables that reflect the context in which researchers obtain such estimates. After accounting for potential publication bias, the effect of a 1 percentage point (pp) change to the capital (regulatory) ratio on annual credit growth is set at around 0.3 pp, while the effect of changes to capital requirements is about -0.7 pp. Using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging, we expose the additional layers of fragmentation observed in our results. First, we show that the relationship between bank capital and lending changes over time, reflecting the post-crisis period of increasingly demanding bank capital regulation and subdued profitability. Second, we find the reported estimates of elasticities to be significantly affected by the researchers’ choice of empirical approach. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital, bank lending, capital regulation, meta-analysis, publication bias |
| JEL: | C83 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2021/8&r= |
| By: | Reeves, Aaron |
| Abstract: | Do wage-setting institutions, such as collective bargaining, improve health and, if so, is this because they reduce income inequality? Wage-setting institutions are often assumed to improve health because they increase earnings and reduce inequality and yet, while individual-level studies suggest higher earnings improve well being, the direct effects of these institutions on mortality remains unclear. This paper explores both the relationship between wage-setting institutions and mortality rates whether income inequality mediates this relationship. Using 50 years of data from 22 high-income countries (n ~ 825), I find mortality rates are lower in countries with collective bargaining compared to places with little or no wage protection. While wage-setting institutions may reduce economic inequality, these institutions do not appear to improve health because they reduce inequality. Instead, collective bargaining improves health, in part, because they increase average wage growth. The political and economic drivers of inequality may not, then, be correlated with health outcomes, and, as a result, health scholars need to develop more nuanced theories of the political economy of health that are separate from but in dialogue with the political economy of inequality. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining; infant mortality; life expectancy; minimum wage; mortality rates; Wellcome Trust (Grant Number 220206/Z/20/Z) and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Grant Number 1503002). |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113422&r= |
| By: | Bernal, C; Ortiz, M; Prem, M; Vargas, J. F |
| Abstract: | While there is a large literature on how conflict affects entrepreneurship and private investment, much less is known about how the end of a conflict affects businesses and firms’ creation. A priory, the direction of the effect is not obvious, as conflicts bequest poverty traps and inequality that reduce the returns of investment, and the territorial vacuum of power that is inherent to most post-conflict situations may trigger new violent cycles. Studying Colombia’s recent peace agreement and using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document that dynamics of entrepreneurship in traditionally violent areas closely mapped the politics that surrounded the peace agreement. When the agreement was imminent after a 5-decade conflict and violence had plummeted, local investors from all economic sectors established new firms and created more jobs. Instead, when the agreement was rejected by a tiny vote margin in a referendum and the party that promoted this rejection raised to power, the rate of firms’ creation rapidly reversed. |
| Keywords: | Firm entry, Conflict, Peace agreement, Colombia |
| JEL: | D74 D22 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:019938&r= |
| By: | Cutuli, Romina |
| Abstract: | En este artículo propongo una lectura de Au Bonheur des dames de Émile Zola, atenta a las representaciones construidas en torno al progreso y las transformaciones en la vida urbana europea decimonónica. Se desarrollará un estudio de los personajes y los vínculos que crean, entendiendo la tienda, más que como un mero escenario, como una gran protagonista, corazón de la metamorfosis de la vida social y material. Hay exitosos y excluidos, espacio para la "carrera abierta al talento", no solo para el burgués, sino también para los trabajadores de comercio que, a diferencia de los industriales, podían alcanzar el éxito junto al patrón. Finalmente, hago breve referencia a la serie The Paradise, como reescritura en el siglo XXI de la novela de Zola. |
| Keywords: | Representaciones; Burguesía; Trabajo; Consumo; Género; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3604&r= |
| By: | Dorel Mihai Vlad (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University from Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The protection of copyright and related rights is done through a series of administrative, civil, and criminal law means. The appearance of a law, in accordance with the relevant international legislation, allowed entry into legality in this field as well, due to the changes in technology that required this. Also, the regulation of related rights was another step in creating the legislative framework necessary to defend these rights. |
| Keywords: | copyright, system, innovation, technological transfer, competitiveness |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0100&r= |
| By: | Cécile Bourreau-Dubois (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Myriam Doriat-Duban (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bruno Jeandidier (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Claude Ray (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437637&r= |
| By: | Brayan Segura Solano (Universidad de Costa Rica) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo de investigación identifica y documenta choques exógenos de política fiscal en Costa Rica en el período 1991-2018, que eventualmente permitirán estimar con mayor precisión la magnitud de los multiplicadores fiscales según un enfoque narrativo. En total para el período estudiado se identificaron 264 choques de política tributaria entre creación de nuevos impuestos nacionales o municipales, modificación de tributos existentes, cambios en exoneraciones y cambios en la administración tributaria y acuerdos internacionales para intercambio de información tributaria. La naturaleza de estos cambios se documenta en una base de datos inédita que permitirá identificar y analizar casos de estudio para futuros análisis y estimaciones. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fcr:wpaper:202201&r= |
| By: | Paredes Chervellini, Luciano (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and ComexPeru); Ritzen, Jo (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | A simulation shows that increasing teacher salaries is likely to be (very) profitable for Peru. The required investments have in the long run a substantial return in economic growth as higher salaries would lead to higher teacher cognitive skills, which in turn impact student achievement. We suggest that international development banks should develop products for education finance with a long period (60 years or more) before repayments must be made. |
| Keywords: | Education, Return over investment, Economic growth, GDP, PISA, Cognitive Skills, Teachers, Development finance |
| JEL: | C63 H52 I25 O15 O21 O24 N36 |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021029&r= |
| By: | James Peck (The Ohio State University); A. Setayesh (The Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:21-90&r= |
| By: | Douglas David Klein (New Jersey City University, United States); Zion Kang (Student, Jeju International School, Korea) |
| Abstract: | The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), part of the CARES Act passed by the United States Congress in 2020, was instituted as a response to social distancing restrictions during the COVID pandemic that shut down large parts of the American economy. The purpose of PPP was to provide small businesses (and corporations with 500 employees and less) with easy-access loans to help make essential operating payments such as rent, utilities and payroll. If PPP funds were properly used as promised, then the amount borrowed would be forgiven - meaning the loan would be converted to a grant and the borrowed funds would never have to be repaid. The PPP was rolled out in two phases: April 2020 and January 2021. This paper will address if the program worked as envisioned - what was the PPP’s ultimate effectiveness? Did it really save jobs and businesses from failing? This paper will also research the percentage of fraudulent or criminal PPP loans - was there widespread fraud, abuse and misuse of the easy-access funds? |
| Keywords: | Paycheck Protection Program, effectiveness, fraud, abuse, businesses, jobs, loans |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0101&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro; Davide Romelli; Gaia Rubera |
| Abstract: | How does central bank communication affect financial markets? This paper shows that the monetary policy announcements of three major central banks, i.e. the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, trigger significant discussions on monetary policy on Twitter. Using machine learning techniques we identify Twitter messages related to monetary policy around the release of monetary policy decisions and we build a metric of the similarity between the policy announcement and Twitter traffic before and after the announcement. We interpret large changes in the similarity of tweets and announcements as a proxy for monetary policy surprise and show that market volatility spikes after the announcement whenever changes in similarity are high. These findings suggest that social media discussions on central bank communication are aligned with bond and stock market reactions. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, central bank communication, financial markets, social media, Twitter, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G14 G15 G41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21160&r= |
| By: | Roxana Barrantes Cáceres (Departamnento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.); Silvana Manrique Romero (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.) |
| Abstract: | Este estudio analiza la dinámica de usos entre medios tradicionales (de tipo off-line) y medios modernos (de tipo on line) para el caso específico de adultos mayores en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay y Perú. Se basa en el modelo teórico de Becker (1965) y se aplica al caso de adultos mayores para analizar si los medios modernos están desplazando o suplementando a los medios tradicionales. Así, a través de regresiones del modelo Logit bivariado y Logit ordenado, se encuentra que, para la muestra analizada, los medios modernos suplementan a los medios tradicionales, lo cual constituye un motivo adicional para promover el uso de medios modernos entre los adultos mayores. JEL Classification-JE: O33, O12, L96 |
| Keywords: | Medios de comunicación tradicionales, medios de comunicación modernos, tecnologías de información y comunicaciones, adultos mayores, América Latina |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00505&r= |
| By: | Fels, Markus; Suprinoviéc, Olga; Schlömer-Laufen, Nadine; Kay, Rosemarie |
| Abstract: | Wegen fehlender amtlicher Statistiken schätzt das IfM Bonn seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre die Anzahl der Unternehmen in Deutschland, die vor der Übergabe stehen. Die vorliegende Schätzung kommt zum Ergebnis, dass im Zeitraum 2022 bis 2026 etwa 190.000 Unternehmen zur Übergabe anstehen. Die höchste Anzahl an Übergaben findet sich in der Branche der Unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen sowie unter den Unternehmen der Größenklasse 500.000 bis 1 Mio. Euro Jahresumsatz. Überdurchschnittlich viele Übergaben (gemessen am Unternehmensbestand) werden für Bremen und Niedersachsen vorausberechnet. Von der Corona-Pandemie erwarten wir nach derzeitigem Stand keine starken Auswirkungen auf die Zahl der Unternehmensnachfolgen. Von besonderer Bedeutung für das Nachfolgegeschehen ist hingegen der demografische Wandel. |
| Keywords: | Unternehmensübertragungen,Familienunternehmen,Deutschland,Business transfers,family businesses,Germany |
| JEL: | L19 M19 M29 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmduf:27&r= |
| By: | Carolina Bernal; Mónica Ortiz; Mounu Prem; Juan F. Vargas |
| Abstract: | While there is a large literature on how conflict affects entrepreneurship and private investment, much less is known about how the end of a conflict affects businesses and firms’ creation. A priory, the direction of the effect is not obvious, as conflicts bequest poverty traps and inequality that reduce the returns of investment, and the territorial vacuum of power that is inherent to most post-conflict situations may trigger new violent cycles. Studying Colombia’s recent peace agreement and using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document that dynamics of entrepreneurship in traditionally violent areas closely mapped the politics that surrounded the peace agreement. When the agreement was imminent after a 5-decade conflict and violence had plummeted, local investors from all economic sectors established new firms and created more jobs. Instead, when the agreement was rejected by a tiny vote margin in a referendum and the party that promoted this rejection raised to power, the rate of firms’ creation rapidly reversed. |
| Keywords: | Firm entry, Conflict, Peace agreement, Colombia |
| JEL: | D74 D22 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:019939&r= |
| By: | Shenoy, Ajay; Sharma, Bhavyaa; Xu, Guanghong; Kapoor, Rolly; Rho, Haedong Aiden; Sangha, Kinpritma |
| Abstract: | We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Coronavirus, Rainfall, Social distancing, Prevention, coronavirus, social distancing, rainfall, Health Policy & Services, Public Health and Health Services, Applied Economics, Econometrics |
| Date: | 2021–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt3jr4k0cm&r= |
| By: | Helen Miller (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Thomas Pope (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We use newly linked tax records to show that the large responses of UK company owner-managers to personal taxes are due to intertemporal income shifting and not to reductions in real business activity. Around half of this shifting is short-term and helps prevent volatile incomes being taxed more heavily under progressive personal taxes. The remainder re?ects systemic pro?t retention over long periods to take advantage of lower tax rates, including preferential treatment of capital gains. We ?nd no evidence that this tax-induced retention increases business investment. It does, however, substantially reduce the tax revenue raised from high income business owners. |
| Date: | 2021–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/49&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | La pandémie de Covid-19 a bouleversé non seulement l'économie de la plupart des pays, mais aussi le domaine scientifique médical. Les opinions publiques se sont immiscées dans les choix des essais thérapeutiques comme le montrent les controverses autour des protocoles utilisant l'hydroxychloroquine. Le choix du public pour ces traitements est expliqué comme l'application d'un "pari de Pascal". Cet article analyse la formation du système de croyance des individus en appliquant la théorie de l'ambiguïté et la théorie de l'entropie d'information. Il montre que les choix du public sont le fruit de stratégies communication choisies par les promoteurs de tel ou tel traitement. |
| Keywords: | Incertitude Knightienne,Médicament,Ambiguïté |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502610&r= |
| By: | Czech, Robert (Bank of England); Huang, Shiyang (University of Hong Kong); Lou, Dong (London School of Economics); Wang, Tianyu (Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | We study investor trading behaviour and yield patterns in the UK government bond market during the recent Covid crisis. We show that the yield spike in mid-March 2020 was accompanied by heavy selling of gilts by UK-based insurance companies and pension funds (ICPFs), which we argue was an indirect result of the US dollar’s global prominence. Non-US institutions invest a large portion of their capital in dollar assets and hedge their dollar exposures by selling dollars forward through FX derivatives. In crisis periods, dollars appreciate against other currencies. To meet margin calls on these short-dollar FX positions, non-US institutions sell their domestic safe assets, thereby contributing to the yield spikes in domestic markets. |
| Keywords: | Covid crisis; gilt yields; variation margin; FX derivatives; global reserve currency; currency hedging |
| JEL: | F31 G11 G12 G15 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2021–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0953&r= |
| By: | Signe A. Abrahamsen (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen); Julie Riise (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence that preventive health care services delivered at schools and provided at a relatively low cost have positive and lasting impacts. We use variation from a 1999-reform in Norway that induced substantial differences in the avail-ability of health professionals across municipalities and cohorts. In municipalities with one fewer school nurse per 1,000 school-age children before the reform there was an increase in the availability of nurses of 35% from the pre- to the post-reform period, attributed to the policy change. The reform reduced teenage pregnancies and increased college attendance for girls. It also reduced the take-up of welfare benefits by ages 26 and 30 and increased the planned use of primary and specialist health care services at ages 25-35, without impacts on emergency room admissions. The reform also improved the health of newborns of affected new mothers and reduced the likelihood of miscarriages. |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/20&r= |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente (Coordinador); Benito Arruñada; Miguel Ángel García Díaz; Marcel Jansen; Diego Rodríguez; Alfonso R. Sánchez |
| Abstract: | Este documento es parte de una serie de boletines de seguimiento de la crisis del Covid. En él se recopila una serie de indicadores de los efectos de la pandemia sobre la actividad económica y las cuentas públicas y se analizan y valoran las principales medidas económicas que se han tomado en relación con ella en los últimos tres meses, con especial atención al seguimiento de las reformas e inversiones recogidas en el Plan de Recuperación. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2022-02&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)); Ljunge, Martin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Ideological spillovers refer to the modification of an individual’s core beliefs after learning about other people's beliefs. We study one specific international ideological spillover, namely, the effect of the unexpected election of a United States (US) president (Donald Trump on the 9th of November 2016), who openly questioned the so-called ‘core liberal consensuses, on European’s core political beliefs. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) around the election event, we show that the Trump presidential election (TPE) gave rise to a ‘backlash effect’. That is, it steered core European beliefs in two specific domains, making Europeans more favourable to globalisation and international mobility (about 10% change in the overall Likert scale range of the statement that immigrants contribute to a country). Contrasting with the hypotheses of 'belief contagion’, we do not find evidence that TPE steered illiberal beliefs. Furthermore, TPE improved (reduced) the view Europeans have of their own country (the United States). |
| Keywords: | Political shocks; Belief formation; Information spillovers; Backlash effect; Pluralistic ignorance; Trump presidential election; Political beliefs; The social formation of beliefs |
| JEL: | D72 F50 P16 Z10 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1423&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Starting from the standard analysis of accident theory, this paper shows that determining the first-best level of care of ultra-hazardous activities also involves determining the best industrial structure. The analysis assesses the impact of the civil nuclear liability on the organization of given electro-nuclear parks. The object is to know whether these liability rules induce horizontally concentrating the management of nuclear industry or not. In a model extended from two to n plants, we show that the institutional conditions (cap on the operator's liability and the insurance compensation) play a fundamental role in the inducement to centralize or not this management. Hence, a priori, no organization framework is more efficient than the other one. |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502601&r= |
| By: | Lukas Boer; Andrea Pescatori; Martin Stuermer |
| Abstract: | The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Conditional forecasts, structural vector autoregression, structural scenario analysis, energy transition, metals, fossil fuels, prices, climate change |
| JEL: | C32 C53 Q3 Q4 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1976&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Costa Ribeiro (Cedeplar/UFMG); Jorge Nogueira de Paiva Britto (Universidade Federal Fluminense); Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | The unit of analysis of this paper is an international knowledge link (IKL), a knowledge flow that leaves a trace and connects two nodes – different institutions, firms and universities, in different countries. We present and analyze 17,240,834 international knowledge links (data from 2017). These international knowledge links form three basic networks. These three international layers overlap and interweave, forming a network of networks. The contribution of this paper is the identification and preliminary analysis of this overlapping and intertwinement. These networks are robust and their properties suggest a hierarchical structure of a multilayer network that is asymmetric. These networks are interpreted as new layers of innovation systems, with implications for the dynamic of innovation – a reorganization of different levels of innovation systems, now a more complicated structure with interaction between local, sectoral and national levels, as well as these overlapping international networks. |
| Keywords: | International Knowledge flows; Innovation Systems; Networks of networks |
| JEL: | O32 O34 O39 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td640&r= |
| By: | Traoré, Fousseini; Diop, Insa |
| Abstract: | Since the seminal paper by Granger and Newbold (1974) on spurious regressions, applied econometricians have become aware of the consequences of unit roots in empirical analysis with time series data. Yet one can still find many published papers with unit root tests implemented in an inappropriate way. The objective of this Technical Note is to highlight the common pitfalls and best practices when testing for unit roots. In addition to the theoretical discussion, we provide examples using price data from Kenya, Mali, Togo, and South Africa to illustrate the procedures we think are worth following. |
| Keywords: | KENYA; MALI; TOGO; SOUTH AFRICA; AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; CENTRAL AFRICA; EAST AFRICA; NORTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; WEST AFRICA; econometrics; parity; approaches; best practices; macroeconomics; tests; models; unit root; stationary tests |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:agrotn:tn-23&r= |
| By: | Marc Deschamps (CRESE - Centre de REcherches sur les Stratégies Economiques (EA 3190) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Bruno Jeandidier (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Mansuy (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | While there is a fairly extensive literature on the relationship between weather and productivity, little research has focused on the impact of weather on judicial activity. The findings from the few investigations conducted arrive at different conclusions depending on the country. We contribute to this area of research by conducting the first analysis using French data. We propose an empirical analysis of the impact of outdoor temperature and rainfall levels on court decisions made in French courts of appeal during divorce proceedings, based on a sample of approximately 4,000 court decisions correlated with daily and geo-localized meteorological data. The analysis focuses on decisions regarding the amount of child support to be paid. We show that, all other things being equal, when it is very hot at night preceding the judgment, the panels of judges tend to set lower amounts of child support. |
| Keywords: | Appeal judge's decisions,Weather,Child support,Divorce,France,Law and economics |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437628&r= |
| By: | Maya El Hourani (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Gerard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Les opinions exprimées dans la série des Documents de travail GREDEG sont celles des auteurs et ne reflèlent pas nécessairement celles de l'institution. Les documents n'ont pas été soumis à un rapport formel et sont donc inclus dans cette série pour obtenir des commentaires et encourager la discussion. Les droits sur les documents appartiennent aux auteurs. The views expressed in the GREDEG Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the institution. The Working Papers have not undergone formal review and approval. Such papers are included in this series to elicit feedback and to encourage debate. Copyright belongs to the author(s). |
| Keywords: | Bank capital,institutional quality,credit supply,and MENA region |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502606&r= |
| By: | Mei-Ling Cai; Zhang-HangJian Chen; Sai-Ping Li; Xiong Xiong; Wei Zhang; Ming-Yuan Yang; Fei Ren |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial stage and becomes a power law decay at later times by using high frequency minute data. Empirical study of the evolutionary behaviors of volatility after endogenous and exogenous events further demonstrates the descriptive power of our new model. To further explore the underlying mechanisms of volatility evolution, we introduce the sequential arrival of information hypothesis (SAIH) and the mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH) to test the two-stage assumption, and find that investors transform from the uninformed state to the informed state in the first stage and informed investors subsequently dominate in the second stage. The testing results offer a supporting explanation for the validity of our new model and the fitted values of relevant parameters. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.03213&r= |
| By: | Oster, Johanna |
| JEL: | M10 M14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hswwdp:012022&r= |
| By: | Sylvie Blasco (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Eva Moreno Galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Jeremy Tanguy (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates if same-sex marriage (SSM) laws, approved in several European Union countries over the past decades, have contributed to favor gay-friendly opinions among people depending on their social interactions. We propose a dyadic model in which individuals learn about the social norm conveyed by a law through strong and weak ties. We show that the relative importance of these social ties in shaping individuals' opinions depends on the alignment between the law and the local social norm. Using the 2002–2016 European Social Surveys, we test the theoretical predictions with a pseudo-panel dynamic difference-in-difference setting relying on the progressive adoption of SSM in European countries. We show that strong ties induce a lower increase in gay-friendly opinions following the adoption of SSM when the law is aligned with the local social norm. When the law clashes with this norm, strong ties induce a larger increase. |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03516198&r= |
| By: | Noshin Khan (Teaching Table, Pakistan); Umrat Khan (Kiran Foundation, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes findings from a report, written by the authors, titled the Professional Development of Early Childhood Education (ECE) in Balochistan. The data shows a change in knowledge, skills, and attitude of 300 early childhood educators’ on inducting a play-based teaching and learning approach in their classrooms. The sample consisted of urban and rural educators working with children aged 4 to 7 years in public sector schools, in the province of Balochistan, Pakistan. A mixed-methods research approach was employed. A quantitative pre-test was conducted to assess the knowledge, skills, and attitude towards a play-based approach in the early years prior to a 40-hour training. The training used a “Theory to Practice Approach†and made the educators play and practice activities that children would do and then reflect on how they felt and what they learned. This method was believed to be effective as the educators were able to experience what they learned theoretically. After the training, a quantitative post-test was conducted to evaluate the impact of the training. Reflective accounts and group interviews were also conducted to get a sense of how the educators would take their knowledge to the classrooms. The post-test results were very encouraging showing a positive change in all areas. The interviews reflected the enthusiasm of educators to take their new learning to the classrooms. |
| Keywords: | education, professional development, early childhood education, developing country, pedagogy, play-based learning, theory to practice |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0056&r= |
| By: | Jörn C. Richstein; Frederik Lettow; Karsten Neuhoff |
| Abstract: | Die steile Entwicklung der Gaspreise hat die Strompreise im vergangenen Jahr in bislang ungeahnte Höhen klettern lassen. Satte Zusatzgewinne gemacht haben die Betreiber von Anlagen für erneuerbare Energien – und zwar indirekt auf Kosten der VerbraucherInnen, die kräftig draufzahlen mussten. Grund dafür ist die geltende Politik der gleitenden Marktprämie, mit der den Betreibern fast aller geförderter Windanlagen und von rund einem Drittel der Solaranlagen eine Mindestvergütung für den verkauften Strom zusteht. In Zeiten von niedrigen Strompreisen werden die Erneuerbare-Energien-Anlagen zusätzlich gefördert: Im Falle von hohen Strompreisen wie jetzt winken zugleich unverhoffte Gewinne, die die Betreiber einstreichen dürfen. Die KonsumentInnen haben das Nachsehen: Obwohl sie bei niedrigen Strompreisen regenerative Energien über die EEG-Umlage über Jahre hinweg gefördert haben, sind sie im Gegenzug nicht gegen hohe Strompreise abgesichert. Hätte die Bundesregierung in der Vergangenheit bereits auf Differenzverträge (Contracts-for-Difference, CfDs) statt auf die gleitende Marktprämie für Wind an Land und Photovoltaik gesetzt, hätten auch die StromkundInnen davon profitiert: Berechnungen des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) zeigen, dass die Stromkosten im vergangenen Jahr knapp 1,7 Milliarden Euro geringer gewesen wären. Allein im Dezember hätte die Ersparnis bei etwa 750 Millionen Euro gelegen. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:77de&r= |
| By: | Philippe Lépinard (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel); Bertrand Pinon; Fadela Pinon |
| Abstract: | Notre projet pédagogique et de recherche consiste en l'implémentation d'un dispositif de coaching réciproque (peer coaching) durant l'année universitaire 2021-2022 au sein d'un parcours universitaire regroupant 121 étudiants (97 étudiants de Licence 1/2/3 et 24 apprentis de Master 1/2). Les objectifs de ce dispositif sont de développer, chez les étudiants, une posture de « manager coach » grâce à l'acquisition et la mobilisation de compétences de coaching avec, comme thématique, le leadership. Pour ce faire, plusieurs outils complémentaires sont mis en œuvre comme le modèle GROW de Whitmore (2012) et la pyramide du leadership de Collins (2001). |
| Keywords: | peer coaching,coaching réciproque,leadership,enseignement supérieur |
| Date: | 2022–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03505605&r= |
| By: | Aurelie Dariel; Nikos Nikiforakis; Jan Stoop (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | Evidence from behavioral experiments with volunteer samples suggests that there exists a substantial gap in the willingness of men and women to compete. We ask whether a similar gap can be found in a population of economics majors – a population of interest as questions loom regarding the reasons for the underrepresentation of women in economics. We find a substantial gender gap in competitiveness – as well as in risk attitudes – among economics majors. We also find that self-selection into the lab causes us to overestimate this gap among volunteers by a factor of 2 to 3 depending on the econometric model. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20220074&r= |
| By: | Brian Hill (HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03503986&r= |
| By: | Philippe Lépinard (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Notre communication présente les dernières avancées du sous-projet Wargames du projet pédagogique et de recherche en ludopédagogie EdUTeam. En effet, après trois années d'implémentation de wargames sur table dans des enseignements de management, nous avons pu finaliser nos objectifs scientifiques initiaux en mesurant le niveau 2 du modèle d'évaluation des formations de Kirkpatrick (2016) : l'apprentissage. Ce faisant, les deux premiers niveaux ont été validés et permettent dorénavant d'ouvrir des perspectives de recherche plus poussées sur l'usage des wargames mais également une diffusion du dispositif pédagogique associé intégrant de réelles garanties d'apprentissage. |
| Date: | 2022–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03505607&r= |
| By: | Kenji Fujiwara (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Comparison among Cournot, Bertrand and (Chamberlin) monopolistic competition receives recent attention in industrial organization, but not in New Economic Geography (NEG). To fulfill this gap, we examine how the difference in market structures affects industry location in a footloose capital (FC) model of NEG. We find that the home market effect is strongest in Cournot competition, second strongest in Bertrand competition, and weakest in monopolistic competition. |
| Keywords: | Cournot competition, Bertrand competition, monopolistic competition, Home market effect |
| JEL: | D43 F12 F21 L13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:235&r= |
| By: | Pascal Gauthier; Timothy J. Kehoe; Erwan Quintin |
| Abstract: | We develop a restart algorithm based on Scarf’s (1973) algorithm for computing approximate Brouwer fixed points. We use the algorithm to compute all of the equilibria of a general equilibrium pure-exchange model with four consumers, four goods, and 15 equilibria. The mathematical result that motivates the algorithm is a fixed-point index theorem that provides a sufficient condition for uniqueness of equilibrium and a necessary condition for multiplicity of equilibria. Examining the structure of the model with 15 equilibria provides us with a method for constructing higher dimensional models with even more equilibria. For example, using our method, we can construct a pure-exchange economy with eight consumers and eight goods that has (at least) 255 equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Uniqueness of equilibrium; Multiplicity of equilibrium; Computation of equilibrium |
| JEL: | C63 D51 C62 C60 |
| Date: | 2021–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93490&r= |
| By: | Manuel Arellano (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI)); Stéphane Bonhomme (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Chicago); Micole De Vera (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Laura Hospido (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Siqi Wei (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: more than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2021–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/37&r= |
| By: | Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Oguzhan Cepni (Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16A, Frederiksberg DK-2000, Denmark; Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Haci Bayram Mah. Istiklal Cad. No:10 06050, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Recent theoretical developments tend to suggest that rare disaster risks enhance the persistence of uncertainty. Given this, we analyse the impact of climate risks (temperature growth or its volatility), as proxies for such unusual events, on the persistence of economic and policy-related uncertainty of the 50 US states in a panel data set-up, over the monthly period of 1984:03 to 2019:12. Using impulse response functions (IRFs) from a regime-based local projections (LPs) model, we show that the impact of an uncertainty shock on uncertainty itself is not only bigger in magnitude when the economy is in the upper-regime of temperature growth or its volatility, but is also, in line with theory, is more persistent. Our results have important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Climate Risks, US States, Nonlinear Local Projections, Impulse Response Functions |
| JEL: | C23 D80 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202208&r= |
| By: | José E. Boscá; José Cano; Javier Ferri |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo evaluamos la situación actual de la epidemia en España, en el contexto de su evolución en el último año. En primer lugar, evaluamos la tendencia en la presión hospitalaria y en las unidades de cuidados intensivos. Segundo, ofrecemos una imagen de los contagios corregidos de acuerdo a su capacidad de generar enfermedad grave y presión hospitalaria. Tercero, estimamos la presión de la última ola sobre la asitencia primaria en términos del incremento en el personal sanitario requerido para mantener constante al nivel pre-pandemia el volumen de trabajo por empleado. En cuarto lugar, estimamos el efecto de la vacunación en la reducción de los contagios, las hospitalizaciones, los ingresos en UCIs y las defunciones. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Glewwe, Paul; Lee, Jongwook; Vu, Khoa |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how Vietnam's Escuela Nueva (VNEN) program, an educational reform for primary schools supported by the World Bank, affected the cognitive (mathematics and Vietnamese) and non-cognitive (socioemotional) skills of students in that country. We use propensity score matching to estimate both short-term (1-3 years) and long-term (5-7 years) average treatment effects on the treated (ATT). We find that the impacts of VNEN on students' cognitive skills are relatively small in the short-term, and that they are larger for boys, ethnic minorities, and students in Northern Vietnam. The VNEN program modestly increased primary school students' non-cognitive skills in the short-term; these impacts on non-cognitive skills are sizable and significant for ethnic minority students, although there seems to be little gender difference. The long-term impacts are less precisely estimated, but they appear to fade away, showing little or no impact of the VNEN program on cognitive skills. There is little variation of long-term impacts by gender or geographical region, although the imprecision of the estimates for ethnic minority students does not allow us to rule out large long-term impacts on cognitive skills for those students. The program's impacts on non-cognitive skills also seem to have dissipated in the long-term. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1017&r= |
| By: | D'Onofrio, Paula; Gorosito, Silvina Marcela; Iacono, Cristian; Rodríguez, Julieta A.; Heit, Malena |
| Abstract: | El presente trabajo se enmarca en el proyecto de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata "Responsabilidad Social. Una propuesta desde la Contabilidad Social y Ambiental para empresas clave de la región", siendo el primero acreditado en materia contable. El objetivo principal del proyecto ha sido definido de la siguiente manera: "Contribuir con las acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresaria realizadas en el ámbito del Partido de General Pueyrredon desde la perspectiva de sus grupos de interés". Con este fin, se contactó a la asociación empresaria "FortaleceRSE", la cual es la principal Cámara de Empresas de Mar del Plata dedicada al fomento del desarrollo sostenible de la región por medio de la difusión e implementación de acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresaria, quien ha operado como nexo con los líderes de las empresas entrevistadas. En esta etapa presentamos el análisis inicial del relevamiento de acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresaria (RSE) de las organizaciones objeto de estudio, que se desprende de las entrevistas virtuales mediante plataformas y presenciales realizadas hasta el momento. En esta primera etapa de investigación, surgen las siguientes preguntas: - ¿Las empresas brindan información sobre las acciones de RSE que llevan adelante? Si brindan información, ¿de qué forma lo hacen y para que usuarios/destinatarios? Si no lo hacen, ¿cuáles son los motivos? - ¿Las empresas se vinculan entre ellas para desarrollar acciones de RSE? ¿De qué forma lo hacen? ¿Se vinculan con otras organizaciones? Entre los resultados hallados, se puede destacar que algunas empresas comunican a sus grupos de interés las acciones realizadas a través de informes con una periodicidad anual. Asimismo, se relevaron empresas que no realizan ningún tipo de reporte de sus acciones de RSE. De las entidades entrevistadas a la fecha, no se identificó ninguna que confeccione Balance Social en los téminos de la Resolución Técnica 36 de la FACPCE. Para desarrollar acciones de RSE, las empresas se vinculan con ONG, organismos estatales y otras empresas -algunas asociadas a FortaleceRSE y otras no-. |
| Keywords: | Responsabilidad Social; Empresas; Contabilidad Social; |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3592&r= |
| By: | Daniel Goller; Andrea Diem; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | Higher education brings together students from diverse educational backgrounds, including students, who after dropping out of a first course of study, transferred to an academically less demanding institution. While peers are important contributors to student success, the influence of those dropouts with a knowledge advantage on first-time students is largely unexplored. Using an administrative data set covering every individual in the Swiss higher education system, we study the impact of the presence of academically better prepared students on the study success of first-time students. Our identification strategy relies on conditional idiosyncratic variations in the proportion of returning dropouts in university of applied sciences cohorts. We find negative effects of university dropouts who re-enroll in the same subject on the success of first-time students. In contrast, dropouts who change subjects are positively associated to the success of their new peers. Using causal machine learning methods, we find that the effects (a) are non-linear and (b) vary for different proportions of dropouts in university of applied sciences cohorts. |
| Keywords: | University dropouts, peer effects, better prepared students, causal machine learning |
| JEL: | A23 C14 I23 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0190&r= |
| By: | Matteo Bonato (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa; IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France); Oguzhan Cepni (Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16A, Frederiksberg DK-2000, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We find that climate-related risks forecast the intraday-data-based realized volatility of exchange-rate returns of eight major fossil fuel-exporters (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, and South Africa). We study a wide array of metrics capturing risks associated with climate change, derived from data directly on variables such as, for example, abnormal patterns of temperature. We control for various other moments (realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized good and variance, upside and downside tail risk, and jumps) and estimate our forecasting models using random forests, a machine-learning technique tailored to analyze models with many predictors. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risks, Commodity Currencies, Realized Variance, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C53 F31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202210&r= |
| By: | Gong, Doudou (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Quantitative Economics); Dietzenbacher, Bas (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, QE Math. Economics & Game Theory); Peters, Hans (QE Math. Economics & Game Theory, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies Davis-Maschler reduced games of two-bound core games and shows that all these reduced games with respect to core elements are two-bound core games with the same pair of bounds. Based on associated reduced game properties, we axiomatically characterize the core, the nucleolus, and the egalitarian core for two-bound core games. Moreover, we show that the egalitarian core for two-bound core games is single-valued and we provide an explicit expression. |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2022001&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article reconsiders the standard unilateral accident model in a probabilistic universe (excluding radical uncertainty). Unlike the latter, the agents (injurer and victim) form different estimates probability of accident distribution and damage assessment. Consequently, the social cost of an accident varies according to the civil liability type (while invariant in the standard model). The correspondence between the strict liability regime and the negligence rule no longer exists except in the case where the polluter estimates the costs of the damage at a higher level than that of the victim |
| Abstract: | Cet article reconsidère le modèle d'accident unilatéral standard en univers probabiliste (hors incertitude radicale). Contrairement à ce dernier, les agents (porteur de préjudice et victime) forment des estimations différentes sur la distribution de probabilité d'accident et l'évaluation des dommages. En conséquence, le coût social d'un accident varie suivant le type de responsabilité civile (invariable dans le modèle standard). La correspondance entre les régimes de la responsabilité sans faute et la règle de la négligence n'existe plus sauf dans l'hypothèse où le pollueur estime les coûts des dommages à un niveau supérieur à celui de la victime. |
| Keywords: | Strit Liability,Negligence Rule,Unilateral Accident Model |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502614&r= |
| By: | Hazarika, Bhabesh (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Nayak, Dinesh Kumar (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, public spending both at the Union and Subnational Governments in India has been increased by manifold. Often the taxpayers systematically misperceive their tax burden as well as benefits received from the publicly provided public goods and services. This leads to fiscal illusion, i.e., they demand more public goods than they would if they had complete information resulting in a higher public spending than the desired level. The present paper analyses the subnational finances in India in search of evidence of fiscal illusion and flypaper effects as well as the validity of Wagner's law in explaining the increased public spending over the decades. Panel data from 1980-81 to 2019-20 for 20 subnational governments of India were analysed using second-generation panel unit root, and cointegration approaches accounting for the cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results of the PMG estimation provide evidence for the existence of fiscal illusion induced by intergovernmental transfers and fiscal deficit and a flypaper effect. While the validity of Wagner's law becomes weak when controlled for intergovernmental transfers and fiscal deficit, the degree of publicness of public spending is found to be low at the subnational level in the country. The increased reliance on the transfers has become a norm for many states, especially the north-eastern and hilly states having implications for the own tax collection at the subnational level, and as a result, the fiscal gap has become larger and larger. |
| Keywords: | Public Spending ; Fiscal Illusion ; Flypaper Effects ; Wagner's Law ; Second-generation Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Approach |
| JEL: | C23 H40 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/367&r= |
| By: | Sugata Bag (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Anirban Kar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Female labour force participation in India has stagnated despite gains in other aspects. Do Indian women prefer to stay out of labour market voluntarily or do social norms prevent their participation? We identify parental involvement in partner choice during marriage as an important bottleneck. We first find that women who had some degree of involvement in partner choice enjoy significantly more autonomy in post-marriage labour market choices than those whose marriages were arranged solely by parents. We use a marriage tradition instrument to estimate causal effects. Since autonomy and participation affect each other, next, we estimate simultaneous equations for autonomy and participation for only rural women. We use parental involvement in marriage and district-level share of drought-affected villages as two exogenous variables - the former for autonomy and the latter for participation. We find that autonomy significantly increases participation. We further explain the mechanism through a theoretical model. To distinguish between autonomy and participation; we introduce a new household delegation game. The main message of the theoretical model is that parental involvement in partner choice reduces women’s ability to screen partners leading to relatively more mismatches, i.e., women who are inclined to work mismatched with men who prefer otherwise. Key Words: Parental involvement, Partner selection, Female autonomy, Female labour market participation, Delegation game JEL Codes: J12, J16, D82 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:317&r= |
| By: | Colin Weiss |
| Abstract: | Foreign investors hold a sizable amount of U.S. Treasury securities—$7.5 trillion or about 35 percent of the total outstanding—so net purchases by foreign investors receive significant attention from a variety of sources, including academic researchers, finance professionals, and journalists. During the pandemic, foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities has received scrutiny for a variety of reasons, including the contribution of foreign investors to the massive selloff in March 2020 (Duffie, 2020; Vissing-Jorgensen, forthcoming) and the ability of foreign investors to absorb additional Treasury securities as the Federal Reserve prepares to taper its asset purchases (Duguid and Rennison, 2021). |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-01-28-1&r= |
| By: | Yommi, Alejandra; Berges, Miriam; Lacaze, María Victoria; Lupín, Beatriz; Ceroli, Paola |
| Abstract: | Argentina cuenta con alrededor de 1000 ha implantadas de kiwi. La provincia de Buenos Aires, sobre todo el sudeste (SEB), concentra la producción nacional. El SEB cuenta con alrededor de 600 ha implantadas, de las cuales el 80% se encuentran en el Partido de General Pueyrredon. La zona presenta un clima favorable, con suelos con características muy adecuadas para lograr altas producciones y frutos de excelente calidad. |
| Keywords: | Producción; Comercio; Atributos de Calidad; Kiwi; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3587&r= |
| By: | Kuha, Jouni; Bukodi, Erzsébet; Goldthorpe, John H. |
| Abstract: | We analyse levels and trends of intergenerational social class mobility among three post-war birth cohorts in Britain, and examine how much of the observed mobility or immobility in them could be accounted for by existing differences in educational attainment between people from different class backgrounds. We propose for this purpose a method which quantifies associations between categorical variables when we compare groups which differ only in the distribution of a mediating variable such as education. This is analogous to estimation of indirect effects in causal mediation analysis, but is here developed to define and estimate population associations of variables. We propose estimators for these associations, which depend only on fitted values from models for the mediator and outcome variables, and variance estimators for them. The analysis shows that the part that differences in education play in intergenerational class mobility is by no means so dominant as has been supposed, and that while it varies with gender and with particular mobility transitions, it shows no tendency to change over time. |
| Keywords: | categorical data analysis; finite-population estimation; multinomial logistic models; path analysis; ES/I038187/1 |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110157&r= |
| By: | Georgeta Stoica-Marcu (Ovidius University from Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In Romania, social assistance is the totality of measures taken by the state, the Church and other non-governmental organizations to support people in special situations of difficulty due to poor mental or physical conditions such as chronic diseases, accidents, natural disasters, age and others, in order to overcome the state of difficulty. Social assistance in the form of social policies and the implementation of these actions in the territory is done by applying legislative regulations, which focus on people in difficulty. The social assistant worker must know the main forms of the social assistance system, is the most important normative acts of the moment and the institutions that deal with their provision. According to Father Stăniloae “deeds are the manifestations of the loving relationship between person and person†(Stăniloaie 2003, 244). The importance of good works is based on the conception of God and man as personal realities. |
| Keywords: | Romania, social assistance, social assistant worker |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0103&r= |
| By: | Reinke, Rouven |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag nimmt eine feld-und kapitaltheoretische Analyse der Volkswirtschaftslehre in Deutschland vor. Die Machtstrukturen auf dem Feld der ökonomischen Disziplin werden dabei anhand der(ungleichen) Verteilung des ökonomischen, sozialen und symbolischen Kapitals skizziert. Auf Grundlage einer wissenschaftlichen Indikatorenkonstruktion werden die einzelnen Kapitalsorten operationalisiert. Dabei zeigen sich deutliche Monopolisierungstendenzen zugunsten des Mainstream-Paradigmas sowie eine erhebliche Konzentration von Machtressourcen auf die großen Universitätsstandorte. Verbunden sind diese Ausprägungen mit einem wachsenden Bedeutungsgewinn von Colander's Edge, einer nahezu abgeschlossenen Marginalisierung der Heterodoxie und einem deutlichen Zentrum-Peripherie-Gefälle. Auf dem Feld der Volkswirtschaftslehre ist demzufolge eine sozialstrukturelle Horizontalisierung und Elitisierung der Universitätsstandorte und ein epistemischer Paradigmenmonismus zu beobachten. |
| Keywords: | Paradigmenmonismus,Kapitaltheorie,Social Studies of Economics,Wissenschaftssoziologie |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B4 B5 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:91&r= |
| By: | Florent Venayre (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française) |
| Abstract: | L'Autorité polynésienne de la concurrence a rendu le 15 novembre 2021 une décision (n° 2021-DREC-01) relative au respect des engagements pris dans la décision n° 2016-CC-04 du 5 décembre 2016 relative à la prise de contrôle exclusif du groupe Tahiti Nui Travel par le groupe Grey. |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03502179&r= |
| By: | Frédéric Boissay (Unknown); Fabrice Collard (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jordi Galí (Unknown); Cristina Manea (Unknown) |
| Abstract: | We study whether a central bank should deviate from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. We tackle this question within a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with capital accumulation and microfounded endogenous financial crises. We compare several interest rate rules, under which the central bank responds more or less forcefully to inflation and aggregate output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability of a crisis both in the short run (through aggregate demand) and in the medium run (through savings and capital accumulation). Second, a central bank can both reduce the probability of a crisis and increase welfare by departing from strict inflation targeting and responding systematically to fluctuations in output. Third, financial crises may occur after a long period of unexpectedly loose monetary policy as the central bank abruptly reverses course. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis,Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03509283&r= |
| By: | Santarelli, Enrico (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, and Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Staccioli, Jacopo (Department of Economic Policy, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, and Institute of Economics, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies); Vivarelli, Marco (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Department of Economic Policy, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, and Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | Using the entire population of USPTO patent applications published between 2002 and 2019, and leveraging on both patent classification and semantic analysis, this paper aims to map the current knowledge base centred on robotics and AI technologies. These technologies are investigated both as a whole and distinguishing core and related innovations, along a 4-level core-periphery architecture. Merging patent applications with the Orbis IP firm-level database allows us to put forward a twofold analysis based on industry of activity and geographic location. In a nutshell, results show that: (i) rather than representing a technological revolution, the new knowledge base is strictly linked to the previous technological paradigm; (ii) the new knowledge base is characterised by a considerable – but not impressively widespread – degree of pervasiveness; (iii) robotics and AI are strictly related, converging (particularly among the related technologies and in more recent times) and jointly shaping a new knowledge base that should be considered as a whole, rather than consisting of two separate GPTs; (iv) the US technological leadership turns out to be confirmed (although declining in relative terms in favour of Asian countries such as South Korea, China and, more recently, India). |
| Keywords: | Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, General Purpose Technology, Technological Paradigm, Industry |
| JEL: | O25 O31 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2022–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022003&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | We use new, high-quality UK panel data to document the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic at an individual level, from April 2020 to March 2021. We focus on where and to what extent pre-existing labour market and financial inequalities have been exacerbated. Our story is more nuanced than earlier papers focusing on the start of the pandemic. To March 2021 some inequalities worsened, but others did not, and in some cases, a widening of labour market inequalities in the first wave of the pandemic was subsequently reversed. We find no evidence of divergence in employment outcomes by gender. On the other hand, the first wave of the pandemic impacted the employment of ethnic minorities, the young, and those with less formal education, but these differential impacts had largely abated by March 2021. By various measures, financial position and living standards strengthened, not only for the affluent, but also for middle deciles of the long-run income distribution, although those at the very bottom of the income distribution were more likely to report a decline in net wealth over the course of the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2021–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/39&r= |
| By: | Tomaso Duso; Mattia Nardotto; Alexander Schiersch |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of broadband availability on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) using German firm-level data between 2010 and 2015. We adopt a control function approach to causally identify and separately estimate productivity for 46 two-digit manufacturing and service sectors. Over the sample period, broadband availability, measured by 16 Mbps transmission rates, more than doubled in German municipalities. While this increased broadband availability has almost no effect on firms’ productivity in manufacturing, it significantly increases TFP in most service sectors. Yet, the size of the effect is heterogenous across industries. |
| Keywords: | broadband internet, productivity, firm-level data |
| JEL: | D24 D22 J24 O14 O22 O33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1988&r= |
| By: | Jan Stede; Marc Blauert; Nils May |
| Abstract: | With the expansion of onshore wind power, countries increasingly consider the introduction of minimum distance regulations between wind turbines to nearby residential areas, to increase public acceptance. In 2014, the German federal state of Bavaria introduced a minimum distance regulation that requires new wind turbines to be ten times their total height away from settlements (10-H regulation). This translates into a distance of 1,900 metres on average, which far exceeds national provisions on minimum distances. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the introduction of the 10-H regulation led to a decline of the newly added wind power capacity in Bavaria of between 62 percent and 90 percent. Moreover, the legislation affected technological parameters of new wind turbines, with severe unintended consequences for the deployment and cost of wind power. The regulation triggered a reduction of the height of new turbines, which lowered energy yields and increased levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) by about 0.2 ct/kWh. Furthermore, lower energy yields also require a higher absolute number of turbines in the long term to achieve the expansion targets for onshore wind energy, counteracting the goal of increasing acceptance of wind power. |
| Keywords: | Onshore wind power; minimum distance regulation; separation distance; panel data; difference-in-differences; causal inference |
| JEL: | C21 Q42 R14 R15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1989&r= |
| By: | Michael Chong; Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emanuele Del Fava (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Monica Alexander (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Keywords: | Alabama, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, USA, bias, genealogy, mortality, statistics |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-005&r= |
| By: | Abdalla, Ahmed; Carabias, Jose M. |
| Abstract: | We propose and find that aggregate special items conveys more information about future real GDP growth than aggregate earnings before special items because the former contains advance news about future economic outcomes. A two-stage rational expectations test reveals that professional forecasters fully understand the information content of aggregate earnings before special items, but underestimate that of aggregate special items when revising their GDP forecasts. Using vector autoregressions, we show that aggregate earnings before special items has predictive ability for GDP because, as suggested by previous literature, it acts as a proxy for corporate profits included in national income. In contrast, aggregate special items captures changes in the behavior of economic agents on a timely basis, which, in turn, have real effects on firms' investment and hiring, as well as consumers' wealth and spending. Consistent with news-driven business cycles, we find that aggregate special items produces synchronized movements across macroeconomic aggregates. |
| Keywords: | aggregate earnings; aggregate special items; GDP growth; asymmetric timeliness; rational expectations; news-driven business cycles |
| JEL: | E01 E32 E60 M41 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108540&r= |
| By: | Rafael Carlos Cardim; Cláudio Tavares de Alencar |
| Abstract: | Adquirir imóveis retomados por bancos pode ser uma oportunidade de investimento, dado que os preços ofertados geralmente estão abaixo do praticado pelo mercado. Entretanto, existem potenciais adversidades como: o imóvel estar ocupado, em estado deteriorado, sem possibilidade de visitação, ou ser objeto de disputa judicial. Assim, é necessário que no momento da tomada de decisão, os investidores estejam cientes de todos os riscos envolvidos e de seus possíveis impactos no resultado esperado. Neste artigo foram analisados 132 casos reais na cidade de São Paulo, no período de maio de 2018 a abril de 2019, identificando e analisando os riscos dessa modalidade de investimento e apresentando formas de mitigação. A partir disso, criou-se uma rotina de análise dessa modalidade de investimento imobiliário, auxiliando os investidores na tomada de decisão. |
| Keywords: | Alienação fiduciária; analise da qualidade de investimento; direito imobiliário; Extrajudicial Auction; Fiduciary Sale; Investimento Imobiliário; Investment quality analysis; Leilão Extrajudicial; Real Estate Investment; real estate law |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2021-4dq6&r= |
| By: | Jane Friesen (Simon Fraser University); Brian Krauth (Simon Fraser University); Ricardo Meilman Cohn (Social Research and Demonstration Corporation) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of introducing universal full-day Kindergarten (FDK) on subsequent Grade 4 test scores. The data are from the Canadian province of British Columbia, which moved from mostly half-day to universal full-day Kindergarten between the 2010/11 and 2011/12 academic years. We exploit the staggered timing of the policy implementation using a difference-in-differences research design. Our point estimates for the average effect of FDK on achievement are mostly positive, occasionally statistically significant, and always small. The effect is substantially larger among students who speak English as a second language, a result that is consistent with prior findings. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp22-01&r= |
| By: | Alessio Fusco; Philippe Van Kerm |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the literature on the measurement of poverty persistence. The review has two parts. We first cover the literature on poverty persistence indicators which develops “principled”, descriptive summary measures. We then review the econometric literature which teases out the determinants of poverty persistence. Finally, we describe the challenges and limitations the literature on poverty persistence face. |
| Keywords: | poverty persistence; chronic poverty; hazard models; Markovian models; state dependence; attrition |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:022-02&r= |
| By: | Xing Guo; Pablo Ottonello; Diego Perez |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how monetary policy affects the asymmetric effects of globalization. We build an open-economy heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model (HANK) in which households differ in their income, wealth, and real and financial integration with international markets. We use the model to reassess classic questions in international macroeconomics, but from a distributional perspective: What are the effects of monetary policy and external shocks in open economies? And how do alternative exchange-rate regimes compare? Our analysis yields two main takeaways. First, heterogeneity in households’ international integration is a central dimension that drives the inequality in the consumption responses to external shocks more so than do income and wealth. Second, households’ heterogeneity reveals the presence of a stabilization-inequality trade-off for the conduct of monetary policy in open economies, with fixed exchange-rate regimes leading to amplified but less unequal consumption responses to external shocks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Exchange rate regimes |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-6&r= |
| By: | David Douek; Claudio Felisoni de Angelo |
| Abstract: | Embora a governança ambiental, social e corporativa (ESG) esteja cada vez mais em evidência no ambiente de negócios, há ainda muito ceticismo por parte de investidores do setor imobiliário sobre a importância do tema. Por meio de uma revisão sistemática de literatura é feita uma análise com o objetivo de auxiliar pesquisadores e tomadores de decisão na interpretação das causas e consequências possíveis, no contexto brasileiro de empresas de capital aberto do referido setor. São verificadas diferenças entre o mercado nacional e outros mercados, como a inexistência, no Brasil, de índices dedicados à avaliação de desempenho de empresas do setor imobiliário que incorporem ESG. O papel de órgãos reguladores como a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) e da Comissão de Valores Imobiliários (CVM) também é identificado como agente de mudanças. Por fim, é identificada a necessidade de aprofundar a pesquisa sobre as variáveis de ESG que efetivamente podem ser diretamente relacionadas ao desempenho dos ativos imobiliários na B3 como forma de incentivar a adoção de práticas de ESG por um número crescente de empresas. |
| Keywords: | desempenho global; Esg; gestão de ativos imobiliários; global performance; governança; Governance; investimentos imobiliários; real estate asset management; real estate performance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2021-4dqa&r= |
| By: | Montobbio, Fabio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, BRICK, Collegio Carlo Alberto, and ICRIOS, Bocconi University); Staccioli, Jacopo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, and Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna); Maria Enrica Virgillito (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vivarelli, Marco (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, IZA, and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This paper represents one of the first attempts at building a direct measure of occupational exposure to robotic labour-saving technologies. After identifying robotic and LS robotic patents retrieved by Montobbio et al. (2022), the underlying 4-digit CPC definitions are employed in order to detect functions and operations performed by technological artefacts which are more directed to substitute the labour input. This measure allows to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their similarity ranking. Occupational exposure by wage and employment dynamics in the United States is then studied, complemented by investigating industry and geographical penetration rates. |
| Keywords: | Labour-Saving Technology, Natural Language Processes, Labour Markets, Technological Unemployment |
| JEL: | O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021044&r= |
| By: | Adam Gorajek; Benjamin A. Malin |
| Abstract: | This appendix contains the pre-registered analysis for our comment on “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back” by Brodeur et al (2016). To structure the analysis, we reproduce the pre-registration; our results appear in red under each of the relevant parts. The time-stamped version of the pre-registration is available from the Open Science Framework website at the address https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/58MNJ. To understand this appendix deeply, we recommend carefully reading Brodeur et al (2016). The body of our comment paper outlines only the intuition of their method. In some of the figures presented in this appendix, we use labels that differ from those in Brodeur et al. (2016), and we do so to more clearly connect to the intuition we offer. |
| Keywords: | Researcher bias; Research credibility; Research replicability; Z-curve |
| JEL: | A11 C13 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93461&r= |
| By: | Jacobi, Milan |
| Abstract: | Six years have passed since the so-called 'long summer of migration' of 2015, and the numbers of newly arriving asylum-seekers in Germany have flattened. However, as one of the main receiving countries of refugees, other challenges are coming into focus. Besides labour market participation and cultural participation, political participation is crucial to social life. But how to enable the political participation of refugees in host countries remains a challenge. This study examines how refugees without the condition of citizenship, who, thus, lack formal, electoral means of participation, can engage in political activities. To this end, it first uses a qualitative approach to examine how various self-organisations in the city of Cologne, Germany, use their resources to bring their interests into the political decision-making process. Second, it examines the political opportunity structures that exist at the local level to enable refugee self-organisations (RSOs) to engage in political activities. For this purpose, interviews were conducted with representatives of the organisations as well as the municipality and other civil society actors in Cologne. The results show that RSOs can be important partners for municipal decision-makers when it comes to refugee-specific issues. However, the results also suggest that opportunity structures are unevenly distributed among organisations and affect the organisations' resource endowments, thus limiting access. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:342021&r= |
| By: | Nicholas Li (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada) |
| Abstract: | I provide evidence on long-run changes in female work for six Indian states common to the 1998-99 and 2019 time-use surveys. Rural women experienced large decreases in work time (especially paid work) but urban women did not. Men experienced larger declines in paid work but partly compensated with greater self-employment. Changes in self-reported ``usual work status'' do not provide an accurate measure of these changes in work time. Declining work for rural women is observed regardless of self-reported work status, education level, caste/religious group, or state. Leisure time for women increased, reducing the gender-gap in leisure by 50%. |
| Keywords: | women; gender; work; India; time-use; inequality |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O1 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rye:wpaper:wp084&r= |
| By: | Giuberti Coutinho, Lorena (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht) |
| Abstract: | Influential scholars have pointed to the Internet and social media as a reason for the recent political divide in many countries. Greater exposure to imbalanced information in these environments would reinforce previous political positions leading voters to develop more extreme positions or greater animosity towards candidates of the opposing political group, a phenomenon known as affective polarization. This study investigates the impact of Internet and social media use on Brazil's recent affective polarization, exploring the historical peculiarities in the layout of pre-existing infrastructure that causes exogenous variation in Internet and social media usage. There is no empirical evidence that access to this new media environment explains affective polarization within the population under this study. Findings are consistent with the strand of literature suggesting that the recent phenomena of political polarization in some countries cannot be attributed to Internet and social media use |
| Keywords: | political polarization, broadband internet, Brazil |
| JEL: | D12 D72 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021032&r= |
| By: | Armando Marozzi |
| Abstract: | Central Bank Independence has often been praised as a "free lunch" as it lowers inflation with no costs to output. This paper, instead, claims that in a peculiar monetary union such as the European Monetary Union (EMU) defending the independence during a financial crisis can be macroeconomically costly: unconventional monetary policies may expose the European Central Bank (ECB) to the threat of fiscal dominance which, in turn, might endogenously shift the ECB’s fiscal stance toward fiscal conservatism. Fiscally hawkish signals can then depress GDP and inflation, thereby forcing the ECB to prolong the unconventional stimuli to achieve its target. This paper finds evidence of this new "doom-loop" at the core of the EMU. |
| Keywords: | ECB, monetary-fiscal interaction, CBI, unconventional monetary policy, EMU, fiscal communication |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 E63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21152&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the foundations of the unilateral standard accident model under Knightian uncertainty. It extends the Teitelbaum (2007)'s seminal article (who introduces radical uncertainty) by expanding it from producers to victims and from the probability distribution of accidents to the scale of damage. Mainly, it also considers a regulator who aggregates the agents' preferences (Neghisi (1960) type). Under the condition that the troublemakers' resources are sufficient to cover the damage, the article shows that uncertainty does not preclude, first, the determination of a socially optimal level of care, and second, whatever the civil liability regime (strict liability or negligence) it shows that they determine the same level of socially first-best care. The solution is inefficient only when the polluter's wealth is insufficient to repair the victim's losses. |
| Keywords: | Tort Law,Ambiguity Theory,Strict Liability,Negligence Rule,Liability Regimes equivalence |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502617&r= |
| By: | Richter, Ralph; Witte, Paul |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irsdia:12022&r= |
| By: | Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073586358 Grift; Annette|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/079405169 van den Berg; Tina Dulam |
| Abstract: | We use the 2016-17 wave of the LAPOP AmericasBarometer survey to investigate the relationship between economic hardship and subjective well-being (SWB) for Latin America. In addition, we analyze whether the negative effect of economic hardship on SWB can be mitigated by immaterial resources rather than material resources. Analogous to Reeskens and Vandecasteele (2017) regarding Europe, we compare the impact of the institutions social trust, religiosity, and confidence in politics with the impact of welfare state expenditures in Latin America. Our results also show that economic hardship has a negative effect on subjective wellbeing. In contrast to the findings for Europe, the negative effect of economic hardship can be strengthened or attenuated depending on the degree of religiosity and trustworthiness of the community. The moderating effect of confidence in politics was not found. Concerning the moderating influence of welfare state expenditure, our findings are partly in line with the results for Europe. In Europe a larger social welfare state suppresses the informal institutions social contacts and confidence in politics whereas in Latin America a larger social welfare state overturns interpersonal trust (as a proxy for social contacts) and religiosity. Hence, we also find evidence for the crowding out hypothesis, namely that in more generous welfare states one is less dependent on their immaterial resources for finding happiness. |
| Keywords: | subjective well-being, life satisfaction, hapiness, economic hardship, institutions |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2106&r= |
| By: | Sherwood, Charles |
| Abstract: | I argue that lying in business negotiations is pro tanto wrong and no less wrong than lying in other contexts. First, I assert that lying in general is pro tanto wrong. Then, I examine and refute five arguments to the effect that lying in a business context is less wrong than lying in other contexts. The common thought behind these arguments—based on consent, self-defence, the “greater good,” fiduciary duty, and practicality—is that the particular circumstances which are characteristic of business negotiations are such that the wrongness of lying is either mitigated or eliminated completely. I argue that all these “special exemption” arguments fail. I conclude that, in the absence of a credible argument to the contrary, the same moral constraints must apply to lying in business negotiations as apply to lying in other contexts. Furthermore, I show that for the negotiator, there are real practical benefits from not lying. |
| Keywords: | business ethics; negotiation; lying; consent; self-defence; fiduciary duty; CUP deal |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113331&r= |
| By: | Luigi Guiso; Massimo Morelli; Tommaso Sonno; Helios Herrera |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the financial crisis was a watershed in the burst of populism both on the demand side (voters behaviour) and on the supply side (political parties behaviour). On the demand side, we provide novel results on the causal effect of the financial crisis on trust, turnout and voting choices via its effects on voters economic insecurity. Economic insecurity peaks during the financial crisis and extends to segments of the population untouched by the globalization and robotization shocks. To establish causality, we use a pseudo-panel analysis and instrument the economic insecurity of different cohorts leveraging on a new methodology designed to highlight the different sensitivity to financial constraints for people in different occupations. On the supply side, we trace from manifestos the policy positions of old and new parties showing that the supply of populism had the largest jump right after the financial crisis. The size of the jump is largest in countries with low fiscal space and for parties on the left of the political spectrum. We provide a formal rationalization for the key role of fiscal space, showing how the pre-financial crisis shocks enter the picture as sources of a shrinking fiscal space. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Supply of Populism; Financial Crisis; Fiscal Space; Age-Earning Profiles |
| JEL: | D72 D78 D14 H30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21166&r= |
| By: | Benito Arruñada |
| Abstract: | Las empresas españolas sufren todo tipo de dificultades como consecuencia de un ordenamiento fiscal y regulatorio que numerosos informes internacionales consideran notoriamente mejorable. Por este motivo, son bienvenidos los esfuerzos para reformarlo y aliviar as las cargas y frenos a la creación y desarrollo de la empresa. En este sentido, es positivo que el Gobierno se haya comprometido con la Comisión Europea a efectuar una reforma estructural en esta materia, un compromiso al que intenta dar cumplimiento con el proyecto de ley de creación y crecimiento de empresas, la conocida como “Ley Crea y Crece”, la cual “tiene por objeto mejorar el clima de negocios, impulsar el emprendimiento y fomentar el aumento del tama o empresarial, así como el despliegue de redes de colaboración e interacción". |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2022-03&r= |
| By: | Catherine Bobtcheff (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raphaël Levy (HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales); Thomas Mariotti (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Two players receiving independent signals on a risky project with common value compete to be the first to invest. We characterize the equilibrium of this preemption game as the publicity of signals varies. Private signals create a winner's curse: the first mover suspects that his rival might have privately received adverse information, hence exited. To compensate, players seek more evidence supporting the project, resulting in later investment. A conservative planner concerned with avoiding unprofitable investments may then prefer private signals. Our results suggest that policy interventions should primarily tackle winner-takes-all competition, and regulate transparency only once competition is sufficiently mild. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03507030&r= |
| By: | Giacomo Battiston; Gianmarco Daniele; Marco Le Moglie; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | We show that the War on Drugs launched by the Mexican President Felipe Calderón in 2007 pushed drug cartels into large-scale oil thefts. Municipalities that the presidential candidate’s party barely won at the local elections in 2007-2009 exhibit a larger increase in illegal oil taps over the following years, compared to municipalities in which the presidential candidate’s party barely lost the elections. Challenger cartels in the drug market leapfrog incumbent drug cartels when entering the new illegal activity, analogous to what is typically observed in legal markets. Since challengers and incumbents specialize in different criminal sectors, the expansion of challengers does not increase violence in municipalities traversed by oil pipelines. At the same time, the municipalities traversed by a pipeline witness a decrease in schooling rates. |
| Keywords: | Organized crime, War on Drugs, Oil thefts, Leapfrogging |
| JEL: | K42 L20 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp22171&r= |
| By: | Cosmin Butura (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In a growing world of population, the world economy and air pollution, urban and rural agglomeration by motor vehicles is caused by the factors stated. Numerous road safety studies have been carried out worldwide, showing that the only means of transport with the lowest mortality rate remain airplanes, ships and trains. Even if the issue of aggressive pollution by driver overcrowding has been asked at the level of international institutions, we cannot talk about a restriction of the human right to enjoy his personal property. This overpopulation has led to the decimation of regulations, conduct and laws governing urban and rural traffic by encouraging citizens to use vehicles with CO2 emissions as low as possible or even electric, bicycles, mopeds, and electric scooters, etc. However, the environment is not the only problem facing large cities, but rather another major problem being the lack of road infrastructure, but exactly the original streets and boulevards are no longer coping with car surpluses. This aspect has forced, in economic developed cities, acceleration of inventions in the field by: bridges, suspended variants or underground passages, motorways and unique boulevards (for example 6 strips per one). Even if there were numerous efforts to reduce the number of cars, it continues to grow daily, the factors being multiple, and traffic accidents in traffic are exceeded. Are we asking why there are still road accidents, given that we are in the century of speed, state-of-the-art technology? Well, if the computers itself produce system errors, then we understand that the human being is the only computer that produces errors that are impossible to prevented. Although there are numerous appearances in the showrooms of large motor vehicles that promise their endowment with advanced artificial intelligence, the social status of each country in the world differs, which makes it impossible to acquire all drivers. So, road accidents cannot be eliminated, they will only be in a continuous prevention, in order to reduce their number and at the same time increasing the safety of pedestrians and drivers. That is why in this paper I will talk about how a forensic expertise is achieved in the case of road accidents. |
| Keywords: | accident, infrastructure, forensics, expertise, technology, safety |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0057&r= |
| By: | Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Kshitiz Dahal |
| Abstract: | This paper is an exploratory assessment of the coherence of policies, strategies and laws that have a bearing on Nepal's international trade, and the mechanism and extent of coordination between government agencies and between the government and the private sector in trade-related decision making, including policy formulation and implementation. It outlines possible measures for achieving policy coherence and improved inter-agency coordination. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy, tariffs, revenue, non-tariff measures, export promotion, import substitution, institutions, coordination failure |
| JEL: | F10 F13 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:wpaper:wp/21/01&r= |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Ralf K. Himmelreicher |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen anhand von repräsentativen Daten für die Privatwirtschaft (Verdienststrukturerhebung 2018) Anteile und Höhe von umgewandelten Entgelten nach verschiedenen individuellen und betrieblichen Merkmalen von Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern in Deutschland für das Jahr 2018. Deskriptive wie multivariate Regressionsanalysen weisen sowohl auf eine selektive Teilnahmebereitschaft zur Umwandlung als auch auf eine mit steigendem Einkommen erhöhte Bereitschaft höhere Entgelte umzuwandeln hin. Große Unterschiede bestehen zwischen Frauen und Männern, zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland sowie zwischen verschiedenen Branchen. Im Mindestlohn- und Niedriglohnbereich ist Entgeltumwandlung kaum verbreitet, und falls doch, dominieren monatliche Beiträge, die 50 Euro selten übersteigen. Bei geringfügig Beschäftigten ist Entgeltumwandlung die seltene Ausnahme. Und umgekehrt ist der Anteil der Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer am oberen Ende der Einkommensverteilung, die Anteile ihresArbeitsentgeltes umwandeln, besonders hoch; die Höhe ihre umgewandelten Beiträge steigt dabei exponentiell. Gerade für gering qualifizierte Beschäftigte im Mindest- und Niedriglohnbereich in typischen Niedriglohnbranchen wird das sinkende Rentenniveau eher selten durch ergänzende Entgeltumwandlung kompensiert. Insbesondere in Ostdeutschland, wo im Vergleich zu Westdeutschland kleinere Betriebe ohne Tarifbindung und mit niedrigeren Arbeitsentgelten häufiger vorkommen, wird Entgeltumwandlung kaum praktiziert, weshalb Defizite in der betrieblichen Altersvorsorge und somit insgesamt niedrigere Alterseinkünfte in Zukunft zu erwarten sind. |
| Keywords: | Betriebliche Altersvorsorge, Entgeltumwandlung, Einkommensverteilung |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E27 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1977&r= |
| By: | Han Gao; Mariano Kulish; Juan Pablo Nicolini |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we review the relationship between inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and rates of growth of monetary aggregates for a large group of OECD countries. If persistent changes in the monetary policy regime are accounted for, the behavior of these series maintains the close relationship predicted by standard quantity theory models. With an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to alternative frictions that can deliver quite different high-frequency dynamics. We also show that the low-frequency component of the data derived from statistical filters does reasonably well in capturing these regime changes. We conclude that the quantity theory relationships are alive and well, and thus they are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation. |
| Keywords: | Money demand; Monetary aggregates; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93495&r= |
| By: | Kunze, Astrid (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have investigated whether the provision and generosity of parental leave affects the employment and career prospects of women. Parental leave systems typically provide either short unpaid leave mandated by the firm, as in the US, or more generous and universal leave mandated by the government, as in Canada and several European countries. Key economic policy questions include whether, at the macro level, female employment rates have increased due to parental leave policies; and, at the micro level, whether the probability of returning to work and career prospects have increased for mothers after childbirth. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply; children; parental leave; skills; return to work; human capital |
| JEL: | J00 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Aaron Amburgey; Michael W. McCracken |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are subject to revision. We conclude by evaluating the real-time predictive content of NFCI vintages for quantiles of real GDP growth. While our results largely reinforce the literature, we find gains to using real-time vintages leading up to recessions — precisely when policymakers need such a monitoring device. |
| Keywords: | out-of-sample forecasts; real-time data; quantiles |
| JEL: | C12 C32 C38 C52 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93642&r= |
| By: | Assietou Dia (CRESE EA3190, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté, F-25000 Besançon, France); Mathurin Founanou (Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, LARES, Sénégal); Zaka Ratsimalahelo (CRESE EA3190, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté, F-25000 Besançon, France) |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse l'importance du rôle de l'agriculture dans le développement du Sénégal au cours des dernières années. Plus particulièrement, il étudie l’impact des différents programmes qui ont été mis en œuvre pour la relance du secteur agricole. En utilisant un Model dynamique Auto régressif à retards échelonnés (ARDL), nous observons que la production agricole a un impact positif et significatif sur la croissance économique du Sénégal aussi bien à court qu’à long terme. Cependant, la performance de l’agriculture comme levier de croissance reste relativement faible. Ce résultat met en évidence la nécessité d’adapter les programmes agricoles pour le développement pour une croissance socio-économique soutenable. |
| Keywords: | Production agricole, Croissance économique, ARDL, Sénégal |
| JEL: | E31 O55 G14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Holger Breinlich (University of Surrey); Elsa Leromain (IRES/LIDAM, UC Louvain); Dennis Novy (University of Warwick); Thomas Sampson (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce industry-level exports by cutting domestic production. We show that this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). But there was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our empirical results to calibrate the strength of scale economies in a quantitative trade model. Counterfactual analysis implies that while PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries because of the export destruction effect. On aggregate, the US and China both gain from PNTR, but the gains are larger for China. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0222&r= |
| By: | Oxholm, Anne Sophie (University of Southern Denmark, DaCHE - Danish Centre for Health Economics); Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte (University of Southern Denmark, DaCHE - Danish Centre for Health Economics); Bøtcher Jacobsen, Christian (Department of Political Science, Aarhus University); Thy Jensen, Ulrich (School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University); Bjørnskov Pedersen, Line (University of Southern Denmark, DaCHE - Danish Centre for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Health economists typically use agency theory to predict how physicians respond to various policy schemes. Empirical studies show that many schemes lead to unintended responses, indicating that current theoretical models fail to fully explain physicians’ behaviour. Drawing on key lessons from social psychology and public administration literatures, we propose to expand the principal-agent framework by unfolding physicians’ non-pecuniary motives to provide care using three components: patient benefits, intrinsic motivation, and societal benefits (externalities). We argue how each of these motivational components align with the existing agency framework and provide examples of how to measure the degree to which physicians are motivated by these components. Finally, we discuss how physicians’ non-pecuniary motives can be used to inform policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Health care; agency theory; double agency; altruism; externalities; user orientation; intrinsic motivation; public service motivation; non-financial incentives |
| JEL: | I10 I11 |
| Date: | 2022–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sduhec:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Bitsch, Linda; Hanf, Jon H. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305619&r= |
| By: | Martin Hodula; Jan Janku; Lukas Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which various structural risks exacerbate the materialization of cyclical risk. We use a large database covering all sorts of cyclical and structural features of the financial sector and the real economy for a panel of 30 countries over the period 2006Q1–2019Q4. We show that elevated levels of structural risks may have an important role in explaining the severity of cyclical and credit risk materialization during financial cycle contractions. Among these risks, private and public sector indebtedness, banking sector resilience and concentration of real estate exposures stand out. Moreover, we show that the elevated levels of some of the structural risks identified may be related to long-standing accommodative economic policy. Our evidence implies a stronger role for macroprudential policy, especially in countries with higher levels of structural risks |
| Keywords: | Cyclical risk, event study, financial cycle, panel regression, structural risks, systemic risk |
| JEL: | E32 G15 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2021/03&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020 using receipt of a hypothetical unanticipated, one-time income payment. Reported MPCs are modest, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic uncertainty. Signi?cant fractions of respondents report they would use a windfall to pay down debt, or that they would change their transfer payments to or from family and friends. The latter means that the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC. |
| Date: | 2021–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/26&r= |
| By: | Charitopoulos, V.; Fajardy, M.; Chyong, C. K.; Reiner, D. |
| Abstract: | Unlike power sector decarbonisation, there has been little progress made on heat, which is currently the biggest energy consumer in the UK, accounting for 45% of total energy consumption in 2019, and almost 40% of UK GHG emissions. Given the UK’s legally binding commitment to "Net-Zero" by 2050, decarbonising heat is becoming urgent and currently one of the main pathways involves its electrification. Here, we present a spatially-explicit optimisation model that investigates the implications of electrifying heat on the operation of the power sector. Using hourly historical gas demand data, we conclude that the domestic peak heat demand is almost 50% lower than widely-cited values. A 100% electrification pathway can be achieved with only a 1.3-fold increase in generation capacity compared to a power-only decarbonisation scenario, but only, by leveraging the role of thermal energy storage technologies without which a further 40% increase would be needed. |
| Keywords: | heat electrification, energy systems optimisation, carbon capture and storage, heat pumps, unit commitment, investment planning |
| JEL: | C31 C61 C63 L94 L95 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2210&r= |
| By: | Luca Bellodi; Massimo Morelli; Matia Vannoni |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of populism on bureaucratic expertise and government performance. We use novel data on about 8,000 municipalities in Italy, over a period of 20 years, and we estimate the effect of electing a populist mayor with a close-election regression discontinuity design. We find that the election of a populist mayor leads to (1) higher turnover among top bureaucrats; (2) an increase in the probability of replacing expert with non-expert bureaucrats; (3) a decrease in the percentage of highly educated bureaucrats; (4) and lower performance overall. Moreover, we find evidence that the increased inefficiency of the bureaucracy is accompanied by proliferation of council and executive resolutions, in line with the recent literature on overproduction of laws and bureaucratic inefficiency. |
| Keywords: | Bureaucracy, Turnover, Populist Politicians, Government Performance |
| JEL: | H11 H83 D73 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21158&r= |
| By: | Joe Cho Yiu NG; Charles Ka Yui LEUNG; Suikang CHEN |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between corporate real estate (CRE) holdings and stock returns before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We find that (1) the United States and the United Kingdom show a negative relationship before the GFC and positive after the GFC. (2) Firms that pay positive tax or have positive R&D investments are not systematically different from the full sample. This finding cannot support the "scarce capital" theory or the tax incentive explanation, but it is consistent with the “empire building” theory. After the GFC, financial constraints tightened, and both CRE holding and stock returns dropped. (3) European (excluding the United Kingdom) sample shows a positive relationship in the pre-crisis period. This finding is compatible with the "illiquidity premium" theory. However, the association becomes inconclusive in the post-crisis period. (3) The Japanese sample shows a negative association between CRE and stock returns in the pre-crisis period, like the United States and the United Kingdom. However, the relationship becomes statistically insignificant in the post-crisis period, consistent with the theory of financial constraint tightening after the GFC. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1158&r= |
| By: | Loudi Njoya (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Ibrahim Ngouhouo (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Friedrich Schneider (Kepler University of Linz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This paper is interested in explaining the causes of the simultaneous evolution between economic growth and informality. Using a large annual panel of African countries with a time series of 25 years, ours results show that when the corruption rate is above (below) a threshold of 1.3577, economic growth reduces (increases) informal economic sector. The corruption proxy is measured as a decreasing function of corruption such that higher levels of the corruption proxy translate lower levels of corruption. It is therefore desirable for policymakers to improve the transparency of interactions between firms, public and private agents to fight corruption, in view of decreasing the informal economic sector through economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Informal sector, Growth, Corruption, African countries |
| JEL: | D73 F47 J46 O1 O17 O47 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/012&r= |
| By: | Kévin Flamme (EGEI - Éthique et Gouvernance de l’Entreprise et des Institutions - UCO - Université Catholique de l'Ouest, IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03485797&r= |
| By: | John Caramichael; Gordon Y. Liao |
| Abstract: | Stablecoins have experienced tremendous growth in the past year, serving as a possible breakthrough innovation in the future of payments. In this paper, we discuss the current use cases and growth opportunities of stablecoins, and we analyze the potential for stablecoins to broadly impact the banking system. The impact of stablecoin adoption on traditional banking and credit provision can vary depending on the sources of inflow and the composition of stablecoin reserves. Among the various scenarios, a two-tiered banking system can both support stablecoin issuance and maintain traditional forms of credit creation. In contrast, a narrow bank approach for digital currencies can lead to disintermediation of traditional banking, but may provide the most stable peg to fiat currencies. Additionally, dollar-pegged stablecoins backed by adequately safe and liquid collateral can potentially serve as a digital safe haven currency during periods of crypto market distress. |
| Keywords: | Stablecoins; Digital currencies; Credit intermediation; Banking; Systemic risk; Fintech; Financial innovation; Payment system |
| JEL: | E40 E50 F33 G10 G20 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1334&r= |
| By: | Óscar Afonso (Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, CEF.UP and OBEGEF); Elena Sochirca (Department of Management and Economics, University of Beira Interior, NECE and NIPE); Pedro Cunha Neves (Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, CEF.UP and OBEGEF) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model in which robots can replace unskilled labor and: i) the government uses tax revenues to invest in social capital and compensate those who do not work; ii) there is monetary policy with cash-in-advance restrictions that impact, for example, wages; iii) social capital increases skilled-labor productivity and facilitates the technological-knowledge progress. Our results confirm that by reducing the unskilled-to-skilled-labor ratio, the robotization process increases the skill premium (and thus wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers), stimulates economic growth and improves welfare. We also show that fiscal and monetary policies can have important roles in amplifying or mitigating these effects of the robotization process and that implementing specific policies can generate an important efficiency-equity trade-off. Despite the existence of this trade-off, the long-run economic growth is higher with than without the fiscal and monetary policies, which underlines their crucial role in attenuating the negative aspects of Industry 4.0. |
| Keywords: | Robots; Social Capital; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Growth |
| JEL: | E62 I31 I38 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:2201&r= |
| By: | Mark Regan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Barra Roantree (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Economic and Social Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that finishing school when labour markets are weak leads to poor subsequent labour market prospects, particularly those leaving school at younger ages. Using administrative register data from Denmark, we find that these scarring effects are larger and more persistent for young adults from the lowest-income backgrounds. |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/28&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | The amendments made to CERCLA in 1996 reinforced the exemption of lenders that finance ultra-hazardous activities. Then, they become involved in liability only if they manage or own polluting activities. The paper compares strict liability and negligence rule in an agency model of vicarious liability type, and proposes to restore lenders as principal by applying negligence rules to them while operators would resort to a strict liability rule. This scheme leads the lender to propose to the borrower the most favorable loan level that induces the latter to provide the socially optimal security level. |
| Keywords: | Strict liability,negligence rule,moral hazard,judgment-proof,lenders,risky activities. JEL: K0,K32,Q01,Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502612&r= |
| By: | Österholm, Pär (Örebro University School of Business); Poon, Aubrey (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the period – although in general at a level below the inflation target – and it does not appear to have been affected much by the recent high inflation numbers. |
| Keywords: | Unobserved components model; Inflation target; Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C52 E32 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Atkinson, Giles; Ovando, Paola |
| Abstract: | Accounting for ecosystems is increasingly central to natural capital accounting. What is missing from this, however, is an answer to questions about how natural capital is distributed. That is, who consumes ecosystem services and who owns or manages the underlying asset(s) that give rise to ecosystem services. In this paper, we examine the significance of the ownership of land on which ecosystem assets (or ecosystem types) is located in the context of natural capital accounting. We illustrate this in an empirical application to two ecosystem services and a range of ecosystem types and land ownership in Scotland, a context in which land reform debates are longstanding. Our results indicate the relative importance of private land in ecosystem service supply, rather than land held by the public sector. We find relative concentration of ownership for land providing comparatively high amounts of carbon sequestration. For air pollution removal, however, the role of smaller to medium sized, mostly privately owned, land holdings closer to urban settlements becomes more prominent. The contributions in this paper, we argue, represent important first steps in anticipating distributional impacts of natural capital (and related) policy in natural capital accounts as well as connecting these frameworks to broader concerns about wealth disparities across and within countries. |
| Keywords: | distribution; ecosystem services; equity; natural capital accounting; landownership; Springer deal |
| JEL: | Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2021–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112171&r= |
| By: | Karsten Kohler; Engelbert Stockhammer |
| Abstract: | While flexible exchange rates are commonly regarded as shock absorbers, heterodox views suggest that they can play a pro-cyclical role in emerging markets. This article provides theoretical and empirical support for this view. Drawing on post-Keynesian and structuralist theory, we propose a simple model in which flexible exchange rates in conjunction with external shocks become endogenous drivers of boom-bust cycles, once financial effects from foreign-currency debt are accounted for. We present empirical evidence for regular cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates in several emerging markets that are closely aligned with cycles in economic activity. An econometric analysis suggests the presence of a cyclical interaction mechanism between exchange rates and output, in line with the theoretical model, in Chile, South Africa, and partly the Philippines. Further evidence indicates that such exchange rate cycles cannot exclusively be attributed to external factors, such as commodity prices, US monetary policy or the global financial cycle. We therefore argue that exchange rate cycles in emerging markets are driven by the interplay of external shocks and endogenous cycle mechanisms. Our argument implies that exchange rate management may be beneficial for macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, emerging markets, boom-bust cycles, structuralism, global financial cycle, commodity prices |
| JEL: | C32 E12 E32 F31 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2205&r= |
| By: | Gert G. Wagner |
| Abstract: | It is striking that economists in particular firmly believe in the benefits of rule-binding, even though this belief runs counter to the standard assumption of economic theory that we humans are self-interested and therefore extremely resourceful when it comes to circumventing inconvenient government regulations, e.g. taxes. In Public Choice Theory, politicians are even assumed to have nothing but self-interest as their guiding motive for action. Why then, in this world of thought, should ultra-self-interested politicians of all people adhere to simple rules such as the debt brake instead of bypass them, if – as is also assumed in this model world – all that matters to them is short-term electoral success, for which government debt can be helpful. |
| Keywords: | Rule-binding, Champbell, Goodhart’s Law, Hobbes |
| JEL: | B10 B20 K00 P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1982&r= |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mattia Guerini (University of Brescia, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mauro Napoletano (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]) |
| Abstract: | We build a simple dynamic model to study the effects of technological learning, market selection and international competition in the determination of export flows and market shares. The model features two countries populated by firms with heterogeneous productivity levels and sales. Market selection in each country is driven by a finite pairwise Pólya urn process. We show that market selection leads either to a national or to an international monopoly in presence of a static distribution of firm productivity levels. We then incorporate firm learning and entry-exit in the model and we show that the market structure does not converge to a monopoly. In addition, we show that the extended model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade,industrial dynamics,rm dynamics,market selection,Pólya urn |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03509092&r= |
| By: | John List |
| Abstract: | In 2019, I put together a summary of data from my field experiments website that pertained to natural field experiments. Several people have asked me if I have an update. In this document I update all figures and numbers to show the details for 2021. I also include the description from the 2019 paper below. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00747&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Eaton; David Jinkins; James Tybout; Daniel Yi Xu |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic model of international business-to-business transactions in which sellers and buyers search for each other, with the probability of a match depending on both individual and aggregate search effort. Fit to customs records on U.S. apparel imports, the model captures key cross-sectional and dynamic features of international buyer-seller relationships. We use the model to make several quantitative inferences. First, we calculate the search costs borne by heterogeneous importers and exporters. Second, we provide a structural interpretation for the life cycles of importers and exporters as they endogenously acquire and lose foreign business partners. Third, we pursue counterfactuals that approximate the phaseout of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (the “China shock") and the IT revolution. Lower search costs can significantly improve consumer welfare, but at the expense of importer pro ts. On the other hand, an increase in the population of foreign exporters can congest matching to the extent of dampening or even reversing the gains consumers enjoy from access to extra varieties and more retailers. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-02&r= |
| By: | Felipe Vaz Moreira |
| Abstract: | O mercado de Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs) tem ganho cada vez mais relevância no mercado brasileiro de investimentos. Segundo dados da B3 de dezembro de 2020, já são mais de 1,2 milhão de investidores cotistas (um terço do total de investidores na Bolsa), com valor de mercado de R$ 122 bilhões e representados por 311 Fundos negociados na B3. A partir do momento em que há muitas alternativas de alocação, tanto em termos de quantidade de FIIs, segmentos de atuação e estratégias, impõe aos investidores maiores desafios no momento de selecionar as opções que mais se adequem aos seus objetivos, estratégia de diversificação e perfil de investidor. O objetivo do estudo é propor uma metodologia de classificação (rating) por meio de um conjunto de atributos a serem observados na análise de Fundos Imobiliários do Brasil, auxiliando assim os investidores em suas tomadas de decisão. Ao final do artigo, será apresentada uma matriz relacionando os ratings atribuídos aos FIIs analisados com a precificação de suas cotas no mercado (valor de mercado da cota versus valor patrimonial da cota), de forma a facilitar a identificação de oportunidades de alocação ou revisão de um dado portifólio atual de FIIs. Também será apresentado um diagnóstico feito com o uso da metodologia de back-testing, para avaliar se os FIIs com maior rating atribuído tiveram performance destacada frente ao IFIX (Índice de Fundos de Investimentos Imobiliários – B3). |
| Keywords: | Atributos; Attributes; classificação; Classification; fundos imobiliários; Portfolios; portifólios; Rating; Real Estate Funds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2021-4dpy&r= |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Maruyama, Eduardo; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Ce document cherche à intégrer deux typologies spatiales existantes pour mieux comprendre les principaux obstacles et contraintes à la sécurité alimentaire et aux moyens de subsistance viables des agriculteurs au Sénégal. L’objectif principal de cette étude est précisément d'identifier et de localiser les différents goulots d'étranglement qui empêchent une pleine réalisation du potentiel agricole de chaque zone tout en améliorant les résultats nutritionnels finaux de la population. |
| Keywords: | SENEGAL, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, poverty, livelihoods, nutrition, agricultural production, spatial typologies, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:farmpn:3&r= |
| By: | Wafa Sahraoui (Université de Sousse); Rimvie Enoc Kabore (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]) |
| Date: | 2021–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03503462&r= |
| By: | Robert Böhm; Cornelia Betsch; Yana Litovsky; Philipp Sprengholz; Noel T. Brewer; Gretchen Chapman; Julie Leask; George Leowenstein; Martha Scherzer; Cass R. Sunstein; Michael Kirchler |
| Abstract: | We apply a novel crowdsourcing approach to provide rapid insights on the most promising interventions to promote uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccines. In the first stage, international experts proposed 46 unique interventions. To reduce noise and potential bias, in the second stage, experts and representative general population samples from the UK and the US rated the proposed interventions on several criteria, including expected effectiveness and acceptability. Sanctions were evaluated as potentially most effective but least accepted. Interventions that received the most positive evaluations regarding both effectiveness and acceptability across evaluation groups were a day off after getting vaccinated, financial incentives, tax benefits, benefit campaigns, and mobile vaccination teams. The results provide useful insights to help governments in their decision which interventions to implement. |
| Keywords: | booster vaccination, COVID-19, interventions |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2022-03&r= |
| By: | Montizaan, Raymond (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Bijlsma, Ineke (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Abstract: | De AOW-leeftijd stijgt sinds 2013 stapsgewijs van 65 jaar naar 67 jaar in 2024. ROA heeft in opdracht van het Ministerie van SZW de feiten en trends die samenhangen met de AOW-leeftijdsverhoging onderzocht voor de periode 2007-2019. Het onderzoek betreft de derde editie van de AOW-monitor. De monitor is gebaseerd op een conceptueel kader dat uitgaat van een evaluatiemodel waarin diverse fasen worden onderscheiden van het proces waarop de verhoging van de AOW-leeftijd een effect heeft op de uitkomsten die relevant zijn voor het beleidsproces. |
| Date: | 2022–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarep:2022009&r= |
| By: | Irene Botosaru; Chris Muris; Senay Sokullu |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a class of fixed-T nonlinear panel models with time-varying link function, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. We establish sufficient conditions for the identification of the regression coefficients, the time-varying link function, the distribution of counterfactual outcomes, and certain (time-varying) average partial effects. We propose estimators for these objects and study their asymptotic properties. We show the relevance of our model by estimating the effect of teaching practices on student attainment as measured by test scores on standardized tests in mathematics and science. We use data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, and show that both traditional and modern teaching practices have positive effects of similar magnitudes on the performance of U.S. students on standardized tests in math and science. |
| Keywords: | Nonlinear panel model; fixed effects; endogeneity; partial effects; time-varying transformation; student achievement |
| JEL: | C14 C23 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Steffen Peters (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-006&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to shed light on how two factors "central bank's design and central bankers' preferences" progressively assumed a crucial role in the evolution of monetary policy economics in the last four decades. The two factors jointly identify the importance of central bank governance in influencing monetary policy decisions through their interactions with the monetary policy rules, given the assumptions about how macroeconomic systems work. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, central bank independence, central banker conservatism, monetary policy committees, political economics, behavioural economics |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21153&r= |
| By: | Moe Skjølsvold, Tomas (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Berge, Erling (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Bjørnstad, Sverre (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Wiig, Henrik (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper originates from a series of “trust games” performed in Malawi during the summer of 2007. The results from the games are interpreted as pure stylized cases of a social dilemma. Some dilemmas, such as the prisoner’s dilemma, are more difficult to resolve than others. These are also called social traps. A group encountering a social trap can resolve it to the advantage of the group only by cooperation. The experiments were conducted in 18 villages, 6 from each of the 3 regions North, Centre, and South. Fifteen households from each village participated in the study. These were first interviewed, and later one person from each household was selected to play a trust game against another representative from the village. We lost a total of 3 players resulting in game results from 267 trust games. The interviews were analysed separately and provided the material for the construction of indexes by factor analysis (Berge et al. 2020a). The paper discusses the problems encountered in using this type of experiments. Economists specializing in experiments like this will often presume that results from a trust game are a good measure of general trust. The analysis of our data suggests that the game results measure actions. Actions that can be interpreted as demonstrating trust, but not trust as such. The trust games played are constructed as a social trap. The analysis of the data suggests that there is correlation between living in a village imbued by a culture of cooperation and the ability to avoid stepping into the trap in the game. All villages seem to be characterized by a culture of cooperation. Hence all players on average earn by participating in the game. But we also see that just as the theory predicts, the ego-centred players in a village with a high level of cooperation are the players who earn the most. By constructing indexes that characterize the context of each player we see that the ego-centred player earns most in villages located closer to an urban centre and where trust in relatives and family members are strongest. The winnings are somewhat less where trust in traditional authorities is stronger. The outcomes for these general relations are modified by the fact that the impact of the indexes is different in the different regions South, Centre, and North. |
| Keywords: | Malawi; trust game; villages; factor indexes |
| JEL: | C72 C93 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Prümer, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | Changes in the employment sector over the course of a career, i.e., employees switching from the private to the public sector or vice versa, are a common phenomenon. These sector switches have hardly been studied so far. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel I give insights into sector switching in Germany. Further, I analyze whether individual characteristics or attitudes affect the probability of switching sectors. I show that women are more likely to switch to the public sector than men and that the probability of switching to the public sector is positively related to education. In contrast, attitudes rather than socio-demographic characteristics are relevant for the probability of switching to the private sector. I argue that deepening the knowledge of sector switching can enrich public sector human resource management. |
| Keywords: | Sector Switching,Public Sector,Germany |
| JEL: | J45 J69 M5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:122&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Berghmans (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Lola Vallejo (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Benoît Leguet (I4CE-Institute for Climate Economics); Erwann Kerrand (I4CE-Institute for Climate Economics); Andreas Eisl (CEE - Centre d'études européennes et de politique comparée - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, MaxPo - Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies - Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Institut Jacques Delors); Phuc-Vinh Nguyen (Institut Jacques Delors); Thomas Pellerin-Carlin (Institut Jacques Delors); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Il reste moins de 30 ans pour atteindre la neutralité carbone. Cette transformation des économies française et européenne, à peine entamée, est historique. Essentielle pour éviter le chaos climatique, elle doit aussi intégrer d'autres enjeux environnementaux, dont la biodiversité et la pollution de l'air. Elle constitue aussi une opportunité pour moderniser nos industries, créer des emplois de qualité, lutter contre la pauvreté, renforcer la prospérité économique et affirmer notre indépendance politique et énergétique. Si de nombreux pays ont annoncé des objectifs de neutralité carbone en amont de la dernière Conférence internationale sur le climat (COP 26), il manque encore des actes concrets, en France comme ailleurs. Beaucoup de chemins sont possibles pour atteindre la neutralité, il faut les préciser, les clarifier et les proposer au débat public. On ne peut traiter les différentes facettes de la transition écologique séparément les unes des autres. Investissements publics comme privés, changements de modes de vie, reconfiguration des espaces urbains, nouveau pacte social, formation des travailleurs, innovations, modification des incitations économiques et production d'énergies nouvelles devront ainsi être appréhendés conjointement pour apporter une réponse systémique et relever le défi climatique. Certains chantiers sont déjà ouverts : 2 % du PIB Français sont déjà consacrés à des investissements favorables au climat, l'Union européenne déploie un Pacte vert, les rénovations des bâtiments, productions d'énergies renouvelables et de véhicules électriques se développent. La Convention citoyenne pour le climat a démontré que ce mode de démocratie participative permet d'aboutir à des propositions concrètes, partiellement reprises dans la loi Climat et Résilience promulguée en 2021. Le plan France Relance permet d'apporter 30 milliards d'euros pour la transition écologique, mais sur une période limitée à deux ans. France 2030 donne de la prévisibilité aux financements de certaines filières innovantes. Dans ce Policy Brief, nous recensons les éléments structurants pour lesquels nous attendons des propositions concrètes de chaque candidat et de chaque famille politique. Sur le climat, tout projet politique peut être proposé aux Français, mais chaque projet politique doit être concrétisé dans une programmation pluriannuelle des investissements publics. Car si l'investissement ne fait pas tout, il est le point nodal d'expression des choix politiques et permet de mieux juger, au-delà des discours, du contenu réel des propositions. |
| Date: | 2021–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03483383&r= |
| By: | Canes-Wrone, Brandice; Ponce de Leon, Christian; Thieme, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | A longstanding question is whether policy uncertainty reduces private fixed investment in developing democracies. Yet studying the question empirically has proven challenging given that economic activity can cause as well as result from policy uncertainty. We investigate this issue within the context of electoral business cycles, building on research that suggests elections provide an exogenous source of policy uncertainty. As a central part of this analysis, which involves four decades of data from 57 developing democracies, we examine how institutional constraints moderate the relationship. Three main findings emerge. First, on average, elections are associated with a decline in private fixed investment. Second, however, this effect varies according to the level of institutional constraints; as they increase, the electoral cycle becomes less pronounced, including in specifications that account for the potential endogeneity of the institutions. Third, the effects are larger and more robust in systems with fixed elections. |
| Date: | 2022–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:126553&r= |
| By: | David Lagakos; Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael E. Waugh |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build and analyze a dynamic general-equilibrium model of migration that features a rich set of migration motives. We estimate the model to replicate the results of a field experiment that subsidized seasonal migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in migration and consumption. We show that the welfare gains from migration subsidies come from providing better insurance for vulnerable rural households rather than correcting spatial misallocation by relaxing credit constraints for those with high productivity in urban areas that are stuck in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Risk; Insurance; Rural-urban gaps; Field experiment; Rural-urban migration; Spatial misallocation |
| JEL: | J61 R23 O11 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93606&r= |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Reinhold Kesler |
| Abstract: | Since 2010, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft (GAFAM) have acquired more than 400 companies. Competition authorities did not scrutinize most of these transactions and blocked none. This raised concerns that GAFAM acquisitions target potential competitors yet fly under the radar of current merger control due to the features of the digital economy. We empirically study the competitive effects of big tech acquisitions on competitors in a relevant online market. We identify acquisitions by GAFAM involving apps from 2015 to 2019, matching these to a comprehensive database covering apps available in the Google Play Store. We find that competing apps tend to innovate less following an acquisition by GAFAM, while there seems to be no impact on prices and privacy-sensitive permissions of competing apps. Additionally, we find evidence that affected developers reallocate innovation efforts to unaffected apps and that affected markets experience less entry post-acquisition. |
| Keywords: | Mergers and acquisitions, digital markets, GAFAM, apps, innovation, privacy, event study |
| JEL: | K21 L41 L86 G34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1987&r= |
| By: | Orville Jose C. Solon (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Renato E. Reside Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Joy V. Abrenica (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Agustin L. Arcenas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni C. Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Carlo Irwin A. Panelo (University of the Philippines College of Medicine) |
| Abstract: | No abstract |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202006&r= |
| By: | Ochenge, Rogers |
| Abstract: | This paper uses annual data from Kenyan banks over the 2010-2020 period to empirically analyze the link between diversification (non-interest income) and bank performance. Using dynamic panel regressions, the study finds that banks which diversify (functionally) their sources of revenues tend to be more profitable and financially stable. Importantly, the study finds that reliance on non-interest revenue sources acts as an economically important shock absorber in times of declining profits such as witnessed in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. From a policy perspective, these results encourage banks to leverage on new technologies to create non-traditional products whose operating marginal costs are small. This also calls for regulators to remain open to such innovations. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:59&r= |
| By: | Smart, Jenny; Benin, Samuel; Marenya, Paswel; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Smart, Francis |
| Abstract: | To help better understand the linkages between public investments and maize productivity within the broader cereals sector, this study estimates the effect of public spending in different sectors (e.g., agriculture, infrastructure, health, education, social protection, and defense) on the area harvested and yield of maize and other major cereals (wheat, rice, sorghum, and millet). The data used are compiled from multiple sources, resulting in a national-level panel dataset of 81 maize-producing countries from 1980 to 2015. We estimate a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR), consisting of eight equations (four for area shares and four for yields for each maize, wheat, rice, and millet/sorghum respectively), with country and year fixed effects and county-specific time trends. We find government expenditure (GE) on agriculture for example has a positive effect on area harvested for rice and sorghum/millet, a negative effect on area harvested for maize and wheat, and a positive effect on maize, wheat, and rice yields. GE on the social sector (education, health, and social protection) has mixed effects on area harvested for maize, wheat, and rice, but negative effects on their yields. GE on infrastructure (transport and communications) also has mixed effects on area harvested for rice and sorghum/millet, but positive effects on wheat and rice yields. GE on defense has negative effects on wheat and rice yields. CGIAR expenditures have mixed effects on area harvested for wheat (positive) and rice and sorghum/millet (negative), but no effect on yields. On the productivity effects, we find that it seems that GE on agriculture and infrastructure have been beneficial to the different cereals (except sorghum/millet), whereas GE on the social sector and defense have had the opposite effect. Although the role of agricultural research and development in raising cereal productivity and incomes and in reducing poverty is well established, deficiencies in governance, political institutions, and other factors have led to missed opportunities. Complementary investments, such as in rural infrastructure, are critical. |
| Keywords: | WORLD; maize; cereals; public investment; productivity; cross-country panel; Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR); Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2076&r= |
| By: | Hopp, Marvin; Kiess, Johannes; Menz, Wolfgang; Seeliger, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the collective bargaining parties of the German metal and electrical industry, Gesamtmetall and IG Metall, portrayed the Corona crisis in the public sphere. The empirical basis consists of press releases, guest contributions by the chairpersons and press interviews. The framing perspective adopted by this study promises to shed light on how the collective bargaining parties assess the social partnership's ability to act and what priorities they set. Social partnership is also coming under increasing pressure in the core areas of the German economic model. This is also reflected in our analysis: While at first glance there is a coalition of interests in the description of the crisis and the call for state aid to support the economy and safeguard employees, this is characterized by a strong imbalance. It is not just a matter of purely strategic cooperation on specific issues. The employer-side also insists on wage restraint and leaves unanswered union calls for a more farreaching joint assumption of responsibility. Particularly against the backdrop of further effects of the pandemic on the labor market, this weakens the unions' bargaining power and puts further pressure on the institutional pattern of social partnership. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iawsch:322022&r= |
| By: | Martin Baumgaertner (THM Business School Giessen) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that a different communication style of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects stock prices differently. A break in the ECB’s communication from 2016 onwards makes it necessary to adjust the identification of monetary policy surprises in the euro area. By modifying the high-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks in the euro area, I can show that two quantitative easing shocks occur per decision: One during the release and one during the press conference. Although the impact on policy rates is identical, the release window shock seems to have a more pronounced effect on stock prices. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional Monetary Policy, High-Frequency Data, ECB, Communication |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202203&r= |
| By: | Klara Kantova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | With the goal to shed more light on the effectiveness of parental time spent with their children, I estimate the causal relationship between parental involvement and education outcomes of children. My research is the first which examines the effect of parental time in terms of the engagement in child´s everyday life. Moreover, I improve the existing literature by including the characteristics of children as well as parents. To estimate causal treatment effects, I use a simple logistic regression along with a subclassification on the propensity score. By subclassification, the systematic differences in baseline characteristics are eliminated. The education outcome is represented by a binary variable denoting whether the respondent completed high school or not. Completing high school improves person´s economic selfsufficiency and civic engagement. The results indicate higher probability of graduating from high school with higher parental involvement. Moreover, the probability decreases when child disobeys his or her parent. Most importantly, the results suggest that the expected probability of completing high school decreases with more strict parental behavior. |
| Keywords: | Education, Children, Family, Parental Involvement |
| JEL: | I21 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2022_01&r= |
| By: | Fernando Aragon; Diego Restuccia; Juan Pablo Rud |
| Abstract: | We assess the extent and cost of misallocation in agriculture in less-developed countries comparing the analysis at the plot and farm levels. Using detailed data from Uganda, we show that the plot-level analysis leads to extremely large estimates of reallocation gains, even after adjusting for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. These results reflect two empirical limitations of the plot as unit of analysis: excess measurement error and near constant returns to scale production estimates. We find limited evidence of substantial measurement error at the farm level. |
| Keywords: | plot, farm, misallocation, measurement error, agriculture, distortions. |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-718&r= |
| By: | Donatella Gatti (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-03534136&r= |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Maruyama, Eduardo; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Ce document cherche à intégrer deux typologies spatiales existantes pour mieux comprendre les principaux obstacles et contraintes à la sécurité alimentaire et aux moyens de subsistance viables des agriculteurs au Burkina Faso. L’objectif principal de cette étude est précisément d'identifier et localiser les différents goulots d'étranglement qui empêchent une pleine réalisation du potentiel agricole de chaque zone tout en améliorant les résultats nutritionnels finaux de la population. |
| Keywords: | BURKINA FASO, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, poverty, livelihoods, nutrition, agricultural production, spatial typologies, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:farmpn:1&r= |
| By: | Mariacristina De Nardi (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London and University of Cambridge); John Bailey Jones (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rory McGee (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses. Our estimates imply that while medical expenses are an important driver of the savings of middle-income singles, bequest motives matter for couples and high-income singles, and generate transfers to non-spousal heirs whenever a household mem-ber dies. The interaction of medical expenses and bequest motives is a crucial determinant of savings for all retirees. Hence, to understand savings, it is important to model household structure, medical expenses, and bequest motives. |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/12&r= |
| By: | Edita A, Tan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper puts together the very alarming poor state of the Philippines education system from basic to higher education based on recent available data from international and local sources. It points to the central role of universities as producers of the principal learning inputs for all levels. Considering the poor state of higher education with only a handful of high quality universities that produce a very small output of graduates with advanced degree especially in STEM fields, the paper proposes a massive scholarship program for advanced degrees to strengthen and expand the country's ten best universities. They would be the seed to strengthen other universities and the other institutions. |
| Keywords: | Philippines; education |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202101&r= |
| By: | Avula, Rasmi; Menon, Purnima; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Constantinides, Shilpa; Kohli, Neha |
| Abstract: | India comprises one-sixth of the world’s population and one-third of the global burden of undernutrition. Between 2006 and 2016, India made progress in reducing stunting among children below five years; the progress, however, has not been uniform across all its states (Menon et al. 2018). There are interstate differences in stunting reduction despite a common national policy framework for nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive programs. Given the paucity of insights on what factors drive successful change in nutritional outcomes such as stunting at the state level in India, we conducted studies in the four states of Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu. In this report, we document the story of change in Tamil Nadu, which is one of the exemplary states in India. With a long history of nutrition and health reforms, it stands out as a leader in social development. We aimed to update prior work on Tamil Nadu to assess more recent changes in nutritional outcomes, determinants, and coverage of interventions. Our key goals were to: 1) examine changes in child stunting, known determinants of stunting and key health and nutrition interventions between 1992 and 2016; 2) assess the contribution of diverse determinants and intervention coverage changes to the changes in stunting between 2006 and 2016; and (3) interpret the changes in the context of policies, programs, and other changes in the state. |
| Keywords: | INDIA, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, child stunting, children, nutrition, child nutrition |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshrs:15&r= |
| By: | Priit Vahter; Maaja Vadi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the dynamic nature of complementarities between technological and organizational innovation at firms. Using Spanish firm level panel data (PITEC) over period 2008-2016, it investigates how the formation, keeping and ending of the joint adoption of these two core types of innovation is associated with firm performance. In the case of the general static test of complementarities we find no evidence of complementarities. However, once we focus on the analysis of within-firm changes in the complementarity bundle of innovation types, we observe clear evidence that some sequential as well as simultaneous strategy switches towards combining technological and organizational novelties are associated with significant performance premia at firms. Our findings point out the key role of technological innovation in these complementarities. We find evidence of sequential complementarity only when organizational innovation is added to the already existing technological innovation at the firm, not when organizational innovation is added as first component before technological innovation. In the case of dissolving the complementarity bundle of innovation types, the key disadvantage for the firm is related to dropping the technological innovation. Giving up only organizational innovation while keeping the technological innovation appears to have no negative effect, on average, on firm performance. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation, organizational innovation, complementarities, sequential complementarity |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:138&r= |
| By: | Stefanie Huber (University of Amsterdam); Tobias Schmidt (Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Department) |
| Abstract: | Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and persistent over time, with homeownership rates ranging from 44% in Switzerland to 83% in Spain. This paper inves- tigates whether cultures—defined as behavioral attitudes passed across generations—may value homeownership differently, and could thus be a driving demand factor of the home- ownership decision. To isolate the effect of cultural preferences regarding homeownership from the impact of other economic factors, we investigate second-generation immigrants’ homeownership decisions in the United States between 1994 and 2017. Our findings in- dicate that cultural preferences for homeownership are persistent, transmitted between generations, and substantially influence the rent-versus-buy decision. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets, Homeownership Rates, Cross-Country Heterogeneity, Cultural Transmission, Household Housing decisions |
| JEL: | G11 G40 R21 Z10 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220090&r= |
| By: | Rashid Javed (Université de Pau); Mazhar Mughal (Pau Business School) |
| Abstract: | Using data from two representative Demographic and Health Surveys, we examine the change in son preference over the past three decades and its effects on Pakistani women's fertility. We analyse a number of indicators and employ different empirical methods to come up with strong and persistent evidence for both the revealed and stated preference for sons. This disproportionate preference for boys is visible in increasing desired sex ratio and worsening sex ratio at last birth. Reliance over differential birth-stopping has significantly increased over time as couples are more likely to stop childbearing once the desired number of boys is achieved. |
| Keywords: | Son preference,Fertility,parity progression,Pakistan D13 |
| Date: | 2021–12–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03502510&r= |
| By: | Cosmin Butura (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Starting with the end of 2019, and so far, the pandemic challenged by the SARS-COV-2 virus called popular Corona Virus, has produced positive and negative effects from the perspective of different areas. If we are heading for the environment, we notice that statistics have shown a substantial increase in the ozone layer; The nature breathed and the air was cleaner, which was considered a positive effect. In the field of HORECA, hundreds of restaurants, cafes, bars, clubs and hotels closed, employers have to dismiss employees because of the long period of restrictions, so it is understood that the generated effect was negative. Also, in the social environment, education was under restrictions, pupils and students having to attend courses through online platforms, thus reducing inter-human socialization. However, not all the effects of the pandemic were visible to society and the press. During the emergency state, the population was blocked in housing, but this political action took into account the fact that every family is different in its own way? I therefore analyze the effects of COVID-19 pandemic among less perfect families from the perspective of forensics. Whether we accept or not, the idea of domestic violence is clearly described by annual statistics both at national and international level. |
| Keywords: | family, violence, forensics, indices, factors, pandemic, virus |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0111&r= |
| By: | Carmona, Julio (University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has changed dramatically our lives. Most economic analysis have focused on its short run effects. However, its persistence could raise concerns about its long-run consequences. This is, unfortunately, the case for many emergent countries suffering endemic diseases. To illustrate to our undergraduate students the important consequences of persistent infectious diseases, I couple the standard Solow model, taught in any introductory course to economic growth, with a simple model of persistent diseases, the so called SIS model. Additionally, this will also illustrate the usefulness of the well known Lyapunov theorem, an essential tool for the convergence analysis in many dynamical systems. |
| Keywords: | SIS Model; Solow Model; Lyapunov Theorem |
| JEL: | E00 I15 O40 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:qmetal:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Cavaglia, Chiara; Etheridge, Ben |
| Abstract: | Across the developed world, employment has polarized clearly by occupation, but changes to the wage structure have been harder to interpret. We examine changes to the wage structure in the UK and Germany, two countries with apparently very different trends. Using panel data, we argue that changes to quality-adjusted prices for occupations grouped by predominant tasks correlate strongly with employment growth in both countries, consistently with task-based changes to labour demand. The gap between price and average wage changes is strongest in top (knowledge) jobs, implying that the average quality of these workers has declined over time. We obtain further direct evidence on changes to worker quality using rich data on individual characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive ability; Height; Job polarization; Roy model; Task prices |
| JEL: | J20 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105819&r= |
| By: | Oyono, Phil René |
| Abstract: | Countries of the global South have rich natural ecosystems, but many poor people. Africa south of the Sahara, for example, contains about half of the earth’s uncultivated land. Forests cover approximately 22 percent of Latin America. In Central Asian countries, overall pastureland was estimated, 10 years ago, at about half of the total land area (ADB 2010). Four of the world’s 10 largest lakes and 7 of the 10 rivers with the largest catchment areas — including the Amazon, Parana, Nile, Congo, and Niger rivers — are in the global South. These examples represent a small sample of the richness of these natural ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, poverty, tenure security, governance, land governance, landscape, tenure, sciences, policies, rural population, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379982&r= |
| By: | Gara Afonso; Lorie Logan; Antoine Martin; Will Riordan; Patricia Zobel |
| Abstract: | In a series of four posts, we review key elements of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy implementation framework. The framework has changed markedly in the last two decades. Prior to the global financial crisis, the Fed used a system of scarce reserves and fine-tuned the supply of reserves to maintain rate control. However, since then, the Fed has operated in a floor system, where active management of the supply of reserves no longer plays a role in rate control, but rather the Fed’s administered rates influence the federal funds rate. In this first post, we discuss the salient features of the implementation framework in a stylized way. |
| Keywords: | MPI; monetary policy implementation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93610&r= |
| By: | Gerba, Eddie (Bank of England); Katsoulis, Petros (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of banking regulation (Basel III) on financial market dynamics using the repo market as an important case study. To this end, we use unique proprietary data sets from the Bank of England to examine the individual and joint impact of leverage, capital and liquidity coverage ratios on participants’ trading in all collateral segments of the UK repo market. We find non-uniform effects across ratios and participants and non-linear effects across time. For instance, we find that the leverage ratio induces participants to charge lower (higher) interest margins on repo (reverse repo) trades that are non-nettable compared to the nettable ones. Second,we document a change in market microstructure under the new regulatory regime. Specifically, we evidence a substitution effect of banks’ long-term repo borrowing backed by gilts from dealers to investment funds which can be fragile during times of stress. Likewise, we find an increasing prominence of central counterparties. Third, we find evidence that participants who are jointly constrained by multiple ratios and closer to the regulatory thresholds during times of stress reduce their activity to a greater extent than those that are constrained by a single ratio or not constrained, with implications for market liquidity. |
| Keywords: | Banking regulation; repo market; market microstructure; liquidity; monetary policy transmission |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G11 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0954&r= |
| By: | Liu, Anyu (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | In the globalization era, many products in the tourism industry are imported from other economies; whereas other products may be exported as intermediates to other economies. Researchers have assessed the economic impact of tourism for more than 40 years, but have shed little light on the economic impact on economies in the global value chain. To fill this gap, this analysis used the multiregional input–output table with 35 industries and 63 economies to comprehensively examine the economic contribution of tourism to Thailand as well as to the global economy. Findings suggest that tourism in Thailand generates significant economic impact on output and value added. The industry has stronger intra-spillover and linkage with domestic industries, particularly downstream industries, and weaker connections with industries in other economies in the global supply chain. The multiregional input–output model also reveals that it can measure the export performance of the industry more accurately than the traditional input–output model. Findings generate comprehensive empirical results for destinations and regional organizations to more accurately strategize tourism or regional tourism development plans. |
| Keywords: | multiregional input–output model; global value chain; economic impact; tourism development |
| JEL: | R15 Z32 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0646&r= |
| By: | Civetta, Andrés Martín; Mauro, Lucía Mercedes; Graña, Fernando Manuel |
| Abstract: | Argentina es uno de los países líderes de Latinoamérica en el sector automotriz, observándose cierta especialización relativa en el segmento de fabricación de pick ups. En este artículo buscamos profundizar el estudio de las capacidades tecnológicas del segmento de pick ups en Argentina y su posibilidad de liderar el crecimiento de la industria automotriz nacional. A lo largo de su vida las empresas acumulan conocimientos y experiencias que les permiten introducir innovaciones en sus procesos productivos ante cambios en el entorno. A partir de una investigación cualitativa, analizamos los activos físicos acumulados en el sector, los activos intangibles y las vinculaciones entre empresas. Los principales resultados indican que el segmento de pick ups ha acumulado las capacidades y conocimientos necesarios para su consolidación y expansión como núcleo productivo de Argentina para la región. |
| Keywords: | Industria Automotriz; Capacidad de Producción; Tecnología; |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3582&r= |
| By: | Bertay, Ata (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Carreño Bustos, José (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Huizinga, Harry (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Uras, Burak (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Vellekoop, N. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | finance wage premium; wage profile; allocation of workers |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e3543110-e75d-4749-b4ee-2fbd67a124d9&r= |
| By: | Cirera, Laia; Castelló, Judit Vall; Brew, Joe; Saúte, Francisco; Sicuri, Elisa |
| Abstract: | Despite the significant improvements achieved over the last ten years, primary education attainment in Mozambique is still low. Potential reasons acting from the demand perspective include ill health, among other factors. In Mozambique, ill health is still largely linked to malaria, which is a leading cause of outpatient contacts, hospital admissions and death, particularly among under-five and school-aged children. Despite this, in Mozambique and more generally, in malaria endemic countries, the identification and measurement of how improved malaria indicators may contribute to better school outcomes remains largely unknown. In particular, there is a low understanding of the extent to which better health translates immediately into school indicators, such as absenteeism and grades. In this study, we exploit the first year of a malaria elimination initiative implemented in Magude district (Southern Mozambique) that started in 2015, as a quasi-experiment to estimate the impact of malaria on selected primary school outcomes. While malaria was not eliminated, its incidence drastically dropped. We use as control a neighbouring district (Manhiça) with similar socio-economic and epidemiological characteristics. By employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, we examine whether the positive health shock translated into improved school outcomes. Using information from school registers, we generated a dataset on school attendance and grades for 9,848 primary-school students from 9 schools (4 in the treated district and 5 in the control district). In our main specification, a repeated cross-section analysis, we find that the elimination initiative led to a 28% decrease in school absenteeism and a 2% increase in students’ grades. Our results are robust across different specifications, including a panel DiD individual fixed effects estimate on a sub-sample of students. These findings provide evidence on the negative impact of malaria on primary education attainment and suggest remarkable economic benefits consequent to its elimination. |
| Keywords: | difference-in-differences; human capital; Malaria; Mozambique; primary education |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113334&r= |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christine Farquharson (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sonya Krutikova (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Angus Phimister (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Adam Salisbury (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Almudena Sevilla (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | On 20 March 2020, in response to rapidly escalating case numbers of COVID-19, English schools closed their gates to all but the children of essential workers and those children deemed most vulnerable. This decision was largely without precedent, and ushered in a period of home learning that schools, parents and pupils had little time to prepare for. This situation of nationwide closures continued until 1 June 2020, when schools began a phased reopening that prioritised children in Reception, Year 1, Year 6, Year 10 and Year 12. However, most reopening decisions were left to the discretion of the schools themselves, which created substantial variation in the school reopening experiences of different children. This report analyses how these differences in school reopenings affected the learning experiences of English school children. To examine this, we leverage a unique panel of data, allowing us to observe how learning changed between April/May and June/July for around 650 school-aged children in England.[1] Crucially, the panel means that we observe children at two important points: first during the full national closure phase (29 April to 18 May) and then again during the phase of partial reopenings (26 June to 20 July). This allows us to examine how learning experiences changed for the same individual children, as they faced markedly different school reopening policies and changes in school provisions. In particular, we examine how the learning experiences changed for children who were offered the chance to go to back school versus those who were not, and whether any benefits were confined to the children who actually took up the offer to return to the classroom. We also examine to what extent changes in learning time varied between children from different backgrounds, and whether these changes increased or offset previous inequalities. Finally, we examine how school learning provisions changed in response to school reopenings, to probe the extent to which there is a trade-off between in-school and remote provisions. These questions are all particularly relevant now, given the UK is going through another phase of nationwide school closures. Our answers to them reveal important lessons for how the school reopening process should be managed this time around, and which groups of children government should be particularly mindful of. Video Key findings There is little evidence that pupils ‘settled in’ to home learning. Between wave 1 (April/May) and wave 2 (June/July), total learning time fell from 4 hours 10 minutes a day to 4 hours a day for primary school students and from 4 hours 35 minutes a day to 4 hours 15 minutes a day for secondary school pupils. Both of these are significantly below pre-pandemic levels, when primary school children spent around 6 hours a day on learning and secondary school children around 6½ hours a day. School reopenings helped to protect total learning time. Pupils who returned to school, at least part-time, in June/July saw their learning time rise. Primary school children who returned to school spent around 3 hours and 15 minutes at school on average, but cut back their other learning activities by much less than this. The overall result was that the children who returned to school benefited not just from a higher quality of learning time, but also a higher quantity: their daily learning time rose by over an hour compared with April/May. Pupils who were not prioritised for school reopenings saw their learning time fall further. At primary school, children who were not offered the chance to go back to school saw their learning time fall by around 40 minutes compared with their own learning time in April/May. At secondary school, the falls were even larger, at around 50 minutes a day. So in June/July, secondary school pupils who were not given the chance to return to school were spending around 20% less time on learning than in April/May and almost 50% less time than before the pandemic. Pupils who were not given the chance to go back to school at all saw their learning time fall by much more than their peers who chose to remain at home. This suggests that pupils benefited from being prioritised to return to school, even when they did not take up the offer. These pupils did not receive substantially better learning resources, but parents and children might have been encouraged to focus on home learning to keep up with peers in the classroom. School reopenings We find no evidence that schools attended by better-off pupils were more likely to reopen. Around three-quarters of those in ‘priority’ years (in our sample, Reception and Years 1 and 10) were offered the chance to return to in-person schooling in June/July. Among other year groups, a quarter of pupils had the chance to go back to school. Schools were more likely to be open as time passed. But, encouragingly, we find that schools attended by less well-off children were no less likely to open last June/July. However, better-off parents were more likely to take up their school’s offer and send their children back. We find that only around half of primary school pupils who were given the opportunity to return to school (and three-quarters of Year 10s) had at least some in-person schooling in June/July. These decisions seem likely to reinforce existing inequalities: a child whose family was near the top of the pre-COVID equivalised earnings distribution (at the 90th percentile) was 22 percentage points more likely to take up the offer than a child whose family was near the bottom of the earnings distribution (10th percentile); most of this gap remains even when controlling for a wide range of other characteristics. We find that the primary reasons for parents’ caution relate to the health impacts of returning to school; however, disadvantaged families also cited a reluctance for their children to be the first ones to return to school as well as practical issues with transport. Schools seemed to be able to manage a concurrent programme of in-person and remote learning. In classes that reopened, schools did not pull back on their provision of active resources such as online classes. Some of these schools also increased their passive home learning provisions (e.g. home learning packs). Inequalities School reopenings supported overall learning time. But the reluctance of some poorer families to send their children to school led to increased inequalities between poorer and richer children. Pupils from less well-off families were just as likely as their more advantaged peers to be offered the chance to return to school. However, they were substantially less likely to take up this offer. Even among those who returned to the classroom, richer children increased their learning time by more than their more disadvantaged peers. Since pupils from disadvantaged families were also less likely to have the home and school resources to make home learning effective, there is a real risk that an optional return to school would widen inequalities within a school year. By contrast, richer pupils who were not prioritised to return to school saw their learning time fall to levels similar to those of their poorer peers – reducing overall inequalities, but at the considerable cost of a worse learning experience for all. Policy implications Central government had quite a bit of control over the return to school. While press coverage at the time highlighted the schools and local authorities going against the Department for Education’s guidance on reopening, in practice the partial reopening in June/July 2020 closely followed the national guidance, with prioritised year groups much more likely to be offered the chance to return. A phased programme of reopenings, with certain year groups prioritised, is likely to increase the inequalities between children of different ages. This is true even if not all pupils choose to return, since we find evidence that school reopenings protected learning time even among pupils who chose not to return to the classroom. Among students whose class reopened, allowing families to opt out of attending likely increased inequalities between poorer and richer students in the same year group. In June/July, fines for unexcused absences were suspended so that parents could choose whether or not to send their children back. If policymakers want to go down a similar route when reopening schools this spring, they should be aware of the undesirable consequences for inequalities. At a minimum, policymakers should engage consistently and proactively with local authorities, schools and families themselves to address concerns about the return to school. Among poorer families, the primary concerns are health risks to the child, health risks to the wider family and a reluctance to be the first to go back. Public health messaging about the risks of COVID-19 for children should be carefully communicated. Careful thought also needs to be given to provision for children living with high-risk family members. The fact that the vaccination roll-out is prioritising many of the most vulnerable should help mitigate some of these concerns. [1] We focus on children in Reception and Years 1, 4, 5, 8, 9 and 10. |
| Date: | 2021–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/4&r= |
| By: | Jacopo Bonchi (Department of Economics and Finance and School of European Political Economy, LUISS Guido Carli); Salvatore Nisticò (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Using a tractable New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, we analyze the interplay between households' heterogeneity and rational bubbles, and their normative implications for monetary policy. Households are infinitely-lived and heterogeneous because of two sources of idiosyncratic uncertainty, which makes them stochastically cycle in and out of segmented asset markets, and in and out of employment. We show that bubbles can emerge in equilibrium despite the fact that households are infinitely lived, because of the structural heterogeneity that affects their activity in asset and labor markets. The elasticity of an endogenous labor supply, the heterogeneity in asset-market participation and the level of long-run monopolistic distortions are shown to affect the size of equilibrium bubbles and their cyclical implications. We also show that a central bank concerned with social welfare faces an additional tradeoff implied by bubbly fluctuations which makes, in general, strict inflation targeting a suboptimal monetary-policy regime. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Rational bubbles, Optimal monetary policy, HANK |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:5/22&r= |
| By: | Banerjee, Sudipto (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Dimri, Aditi (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Grievance redress mechanism (GRM) is an essential component of the consumer protection framework in the financial sector. Its presence and performance can have far-reaching effects on the participation of consumers in the financial sector. Using GRM a consumer can seek expeditious and fair remedy against the wrongs of the financial service providers. While there are various forms of GRM (both judicial and non-judicial), in this paper, we study the design of a non-judicial redress agency. Using first principles we study the design of a financial redress agency by focusing on the critical organisational decisions of - manner of establishment, governance, funding, dispute resolution processes, and performance evaluation. We build on two strands of literature, one studying the GRM design at a conceptual principles level and the other providing practical guidance for setting up a redress agency. Further, the paper analyses four different redress agencies, namely, - Financial Ombudsman Services Scheme in the U.K., Kifid in the Netherlands, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the U.S., and Insurance and Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme in New Zealand. The paper contributes by assimilating all the varied resources to map principles, decisions, and case studies to provide an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to designing a GRM for a varied readership. |
| Keywords: | GRM ; redress agency ; financial ombudsman ; dispute resolution ; consumer protection in finance |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/366&r= |
| By: | K. C. Sanjeevani Perera |
| Abstract: | This study attempted to analyze whether there is a relationship between the performance of drivers and the number of overtime hours worked by them. The number of overtime hours worked by the drivers in the pool for the years 2017 and 2018 were extracted from the overtime registers and feedback received on the performance of drivers from staff members who frequently traveled in the University vehicles were used for this study. The overall performance of a driver was decided by taking the aggregate of marks received by him for the traits: skillfulness, patience, responsibility, customer service and care for the vehicle. The type of vehicle the driver is assigned for is also taken into account in the analysis of this study. The study revealed that there is no significant relationship between the performance of the drivers and the number of overtime hours worked by them but the type of vehicle and the condition of the vehicle affects attracting long journeys to them which enable them to earn more overtime hours. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15447&r= |
| By: | Maximilien Germain (EDF - EDF, LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistiques et Modélisations - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris, EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF, EDF R&D OSIRIS - Optimisation, Simulation, Risque et Statistiques pour les Marchés de l’Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF); Mathieu Laurière (ORFE - Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering - Princeton University, School of Engineering and Applied Science); Huyên Pham (LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistiques et Modélisations - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF - CREST - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Xavier Warin (EDF - EDF, FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF - CREST - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF, EDF R&D OSIRIS - Optimisation, Simulation, Risque et Statistiques pour les Marchés de l’Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF) |
| Abstract: | Machine learning methods for solving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) are hot topical issues, and different algorithms proposed in the literature show efficient numerical approximation in high dimension. In this paper, we introduce a class of PDEs that are invariant to permutations, and called symmetric PDEs. Such problems are widespread, ranging from cosmology to quantum mechanics, and option pricing/hedging in multi-asset market with exchangeable payoff. Our main application comes actually from the particles approximation of mean-field control problems. We design deep learning algorithms based on certain types of neural networks, named PointNet and DeepSet (and their associated derivative networks), for computing simultaneously an approximation of the solution and its gradient to symmetric PDEs. We illustrate the performance and accuracy of the PointNet/DeepSet networks compared to classical feedforward ones, and provide several numerical results of our algorithm for the examples of a mean-field systemic risk, mean-variance problem and a min/max linear quadratic McKean-Vlasov control problem. |
| Keywords: | Permutation-invariant PDEs,symmetric neural networks,exchangeability,deep backward scheme,mean-field control |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03154116&r= |
| By: | Stenberg, Anders (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Evaluations of adults in formal education (AE) are typically based on earnings measured 5-10 years from program start. This paper presents estimated returns up to 24 years after program start, and explore results for 15 cohorts of first-time registered in AE 1994-2008 with at least a 10-year follow-up period. For college level AE, results indicate substantially higher payoff in absolute terms after 24 years compared with after 10 years, but there is no support that multiplier effects increase the returns to AE over time. There is some, albeit modest, evidence of human capital depreciation for high school level AE. |
| Keywords: | Adult education; Self-selection; Propensity score matching |
| JEL: | H30 H52 I20 J24 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Patricia Arttachariya (Institute of International Studies, Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok) |
| Abstract: | The use of plastic, in many forms, is ubiquitous. Plastic is found in many of our day-to-day products and even though plastic has several useful applications, plastic waste has a detrimental impact on the environment and is life-threatening to humans, animals, and many marine species. The main aim of this exploratory study is to investigate the influence of internal (environmental knowledge and concern), and external factors (interpersonal influence and media) on Gen Y Thai consumers’ environmental attitude and behavior relating to plastic pollution. Gen Y consumers are the focus of this study because they account for nearly a third of Thailand's population with high income and spending potential. A total of 550 questionnaires were distributed to Gen Y consumers in 7 areas in the Central Business District of Bangkok, of which 396 were considered valid and used for the analysis. Three hypotheses posited in the study were tested using Simple Regression analysis. The findings showed that both external factors (environmental knowledge and environmental concern) as well as internal factors (interpersonal influence and media) influenced environmental attitude. Environment attitude, in turn, was found to have a significant influence on behavior related to plastic pollution. The findings provide several useful suggestions for policymakers, marketers, and the general public toward inculcating better waste management practices in the Thai context. |
| Keywords: | Plastic pollution, Generation Y, Environmental Concern, Interpersonal Influence |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0063&r= |
| By: | Aline Bütikofer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen); Fanny Landaud (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Katrine Loken (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | Although many students suffer from anxiety and depression, and often identify school pressure and concerns about their futures as the main reasons for their worries, little is known about the consequences of a selective school environment on students’ mental health. Using a regression discontinuity analysis in the largest Norwegian cities, we show that eligibility to enroll in a more selective high school increases the probability of enrollment in higher education and decreases the probability of diagnosis or treatment of psychological problems. We provide suggestive evidence that changes in both teacher and peers’ characteristics are likely drivers of these effects. |
| Date: | 2021–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/34&r= |
| By: | Shang-Jin Wei; Yinxi Xie |
| Abstract: | While two strands of the literature suggest that PPI inflation, in addition to or instead of CPI inflation, should be a targeting variable in a monetary policy rule, the distinction between the two is only important when they do not co-move strongly. Our first contribution is to document that their correlation has indeed fallen substantially since the start of this century. Our second contribution is to propose a model to understand this divergence based on expanding global supply chains. Our theory produces additional predictions that are also confirmed in the data. As such changes are structural rather than temporary, the standard monetary policy rule that does not target the PPI inflation may have become increasingly problematic. |
| Keywords: | Inflation and prices; Inflation targets; International topics; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F11 F12 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-5&r= |
| By: | Xavier Jaravel (Institute for Fiscal Studies and London School of Economics); Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin) |
| Abstract: | We use real-time scanner data in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the drivers of the inflationary spike at the beginning of lockdown and to quantify the impact of high-frequency changes in shopping behaviours and promotions on inflation measurement. Although changes in product-level expenditure shares were unusually high during lockdown, we find that the induced bias in price indices that do not account for expenditure switching is not larger than in prior years. We also document substantial consumer switching towards online shopping and across retailers, but show this was not a key driver of the inflationary spike. In contrast, a reduction in price and quantity promotions was key to driving higher inflation, and lower use of promotions by low-income consumers explains why they experienced moderately lower inflation. Overall, changes in shopping behaviours played only a minor role in driving higher inflation during lockdown; higher prices were the main cause, in particular through a reduced frequency of promotions. |
| Date: | 2020–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/33&r= |
| By: | Kreiss, Alexander; Van Keilegom, Ingrid |
| Abstract: | In epidemics many interesting quantities, like the reproduction number, depend on the incubation period (time from infection to symptom onset) and/or the generation time (time until a new person is infected from another infected person). Therefore, estimation of the distribution of these two quantities is of distinct interest. However, this is a challenging problem since it is normally not possible to obtain precise observations of these two variables. Instead, in the beginning of a pandemic, it is possible to observe for transmission pairs the time of symptom onset for both people as well as a window for infection of the first person (e.g. because of travel to a risk area). In this paper we suggest a simple semi-parametric sieve-estimation method based on Laguerre-Polynomials for estimation of these distributions. We provide detailed theory for consistency and illustrate the finite sample performance for small datasets via a simulation study. |
| Keywords: | Laguerre-Polynomials; semi-parametric estimation; sieve estimation; epidemics; 2016-2021; Horizon 2020 / ERC grant agreement No. 694409. |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113376&r= |
| By: | Chris Belfield (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Jack Britton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Franz Buscha (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lorraine Dearden (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Matt Dickson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Luke Sibieta (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Laura van der Erve (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Anna Vignoles (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Cambridge); Ian Walker (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Lancaster University); Yu Zhu (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Using a large and novel administrative dataset, this paper investigates variation in returns to different higher education ‘degrees’ (subject-institution combinations) in the United Kingdom. Conditioning on a rich set background characteristics, it finds substantial variation in returns, even within subject, across universities with very similar selectivity levels, suggesting degree choices matter a lot for later-life earnings. Selectivity is weakly related to returns through most of the distribution but strongly positively correlated at the top end. Other than selectivity, returns are poorly correlated with observable degree characteristics, which has implications for student choices and the incentives of universities. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/24&r= |
| By: | Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Eva Stulrajterova (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse labour market flows based on data from the Labour Force Survey. This survey enables us to analyse the impact of socio-demographic characteristics on flows between employed, unemployed and inactive stage. Our analysis is based on the period 2005Q1 – 2020Q1 and, also separately on the crises period 2009 – 2010. Education, marital status, or the number of years in the current job are the main factors impacting the flows in case of employed. The higher the educational level and the longer employed, the lower the probability of becoming unemployed. Also, married persons and persons working full-time have lower probability to become unemployed. In case of unemployed or inactive persons, the level of education is also an important factor, as the higher the education the higher the probability of finding a job. Estimation results for the crises years are in general qualitatively similar to results for the whole period. It is mainly the impact of educational level that changes. In case of employed persons, tertiary education significantly increases the probability of remaining employed during crisis times compared to at most secondary education. |
| JEL: | J64 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1083&r= |
| By: | Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Does identification with dominant ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper contributes to the comparative analysis of the role of ethnic background in shaping attitudes towards government's role in reducing income inequalities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, where nearly half-abillion people live and belong to more than sixty ethnic groups. Using a pool of nationallyrepresentative survey data from the five Southeast Asian countries, we first classified the respondents by population dominance of the ethnic groups they claim to belong, and then examine for differences across members of dominant ethnic groups in their preferences for government redistribution. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. No systematic differences in their redistributive preferences are found, however, between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller groups. The results are fairly robust even after accounting for the possible moderating effects of income status, trust in government and in people, subjective social mobility, concerns about social fairness, and views on the importance of fate in one's life. Moreover, the results hold out even in the sub-sample of low-income people for whom economic considerations more than ethnicity are expected to determine their redistributive preferences. Notwithstanding the importance of shared norms or beliefs in aligning he social choices of people with same ethnic or racial background, our results suggest their population sizes, which possibly reflect their relative influence over domestic policies, also matter. |
| Keywords: | Redistribution; ethnic dominance; income inequality; social mobility; trust; Southeast Asia |
| JEL: | H20 H53 I39 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202103&r= |
| By: | Gundert, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Employment is considered an important prerequisite for participation in social life. We examine the question of how a job loss affects an individual’s risk of material deprivation and social exclusion. Moreover, we show how losing one’s job affects individual well-being. We consider both objective as well as subjective indicators, such as perceived social status and individual sense of social belonging." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Haushaltspanel |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202202&r= |
| By: | William Brock; Anastasios Xepapadeas |
| Abstract: | Scientific evidence suggests that anthropogenic impacts on the environment such as land use changes and climate change promote the emergence of infectious diseases in humans. We develop a two-region epidemic-economic (epi-econ) model which unifies short-run disease containment policies with long-run policies which could control the drivers and the severity of infectious diseases. We structure our paper by linking a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with an economic model which includes land use choices for agriculture and climate change. In the SIS model the contact number depends on short-run containment policies (e.g., lockdown, social distancing, vaccination), and the long-run policies affecting land use and the preservation of the natural world, and climate change. Utility in each region is determined by a composite consumption good produced by labor, land devoted to agriculture, and energy. Climate change and land use changes which reduce the natural world have an additional cost in terms of infectious disease since they might increase the contact number in the long run. We provide a deterministic solution as a benchmark and we compare it with outcomes derived under ambiguity associated with important parameters of the epi-econ model and ambiguity aversion. |
| Keywords: | infectious diseases, SIS model, natural world, climate change, containment policy, Nash equilibrium |
| JEL: | I18 Q54 D81 |
| Date: | 2022–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2208&r= |
| By: | Choudhury, Mita (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Datta, Pritam (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | The COVID pandemic imposed dual pressures on state finances. Contraction in revenues was coupled with an increased pressure to expand public spending to counter the adversities of the pandemic. Evidence from 26 states suggest that aggregate revenues fell by about 5 per cent in the pandemic year, 2020-21. Despite this fall, States have maintained a 5 per cent average growth rate of aggregate spending. Public expenditure in social sector grew at a significantly higher rate than economic services. Within social services, health expenditure in 15 selected major states grew at 16 per cent, the highest among all. This rise in health spending has however, come at the cost of expenditures in a number of other important sectors. Expenditures in education and nutrition remained nearly stagnant in the pandemic year. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/369&r= |
| By: | Tetteh, Godsway Korku (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Goedhuys, Micheline (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Konte, Maty (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Barnard College, Columbia University); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Despite the contribution of previous studies to unravel the implications of mobile money in the developing world, the effect of this innovation on an important source of external finance, trade credit, has not been properly accounted for particularly in the informal sector. Using the 2016 FinAccess Household Survey, we investigate the relationship between mobile money adoption and the probability to receive goods and services on credit from suppliers based on a sample of entrepreneurs who operate informal businesses. We further explore the effect of mobile money adoption on the likelihood to offer goods and services on credit to customers. Our estimations suggest that entrepreneurs with mobile money are more likely to receive goods and sesrvices on credit from suppliers. We also find a positive and significant relationship between mobile money adoption and the likelihood to offer goods and services on credit to customers. The evidence supports the promotion of mobile money adoption among entrepreneurs in the informal sector to facilitate access to credit. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Financial Innovation, Mobile Money, Trade Credit |
| JEL: | D14 G21 L26 O16 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021043&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); Wenchao (Michelle) Jin (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Valérie Lechene (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | The share of home-cooked food in the diet of UK households declined from the 1980s. This was contemporaneous with a decline in the market price of ingredients for home cooking relative to ready-to-eat foods. We consider a simple model of food consumption and time use which captures the key driving forces behind these apparently con?icting trends. We show that observed behaviour can be rationalised by the fact that the shadow price of home-cooked food, which accounts for the fact that cooking takes time, has risen relative to the price of ready-to-eat food, due to the increase in the market value of time of secondary earners. We discuss the implications for policies that aim to encourage healthier diets. |
| Date: | 2021–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/14&r= |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Maruyama, Eduardo; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Ce document cherche à intégrer deux typologies spatiales existantes pour mieux comprendre les principaux obstacles et contraintes à la sécurité alimentaire et aux moyens de subsistance viables des agriculteurs au Mali. L’objectif principal de cette étude est précisément d'identifier et de localiser les différents goulots d'étranglement qui empêchent une pleine réalisation du potentiel agricole de chaque zone tout en améliorant les résultats nutritionnels finaux de la population. |
| Keywords: | MALI, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, poverty, livelihoods, nutrition, agricultural production, spatial typologies, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:farmpn:2&r= |
| By: | D'Angeli, Mariagrazia; Marin, Giovanni; Paglialunga, Elena |
| Abstract: | n recent years, there has been rapid development of the literature linking climate change and armed conflicts. Although no conclusionary evidence has been found of a direct link between climate change and armed conflicts, still climate change has been addressed as an important trigger, exacerbating underlying social, economic and institutional conditions and thus resulting in higher risk and magnitude of violent activities. In this context, while more research is needed to further disentangle how climatic changes combine with socio-economic and institutional elements to induce conflicts, an important pathway to be explored is the role that building resilience can play in preventing and/or breaking the negative relationship between climate change and violent activity. In this context, resilience refers to the capacity of a system to come back to its original conditions after a shock and relies on the combination of socioeconomic, institutional and technological dimensions. In our paper we provide empirical evidence on the role played by resilience-building investments in attenuating the emergence of armed conflicts as a consequence of climate-related anomalies and natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:317885&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Yifan Gong (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Todd Stinebrickner (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ralph Stinebrickner (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic ex-pectations data is important for detecting types of violations of Rational Expectations that are not detectable by existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school and then enter the post-college period. Tests of Rational Expectations almost always reject for the in-school period, but the evidence against Rational Expectations is much weaker in the post-college period. |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/01&r= |
| By: | Brian Hill (HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Lloyd |
| Date: | 2021–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03503995&r= |
| By: | Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Orville Jose C. Solon (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Joy V. Abrenica (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Agustin L. Arcenas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni C. Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Aleli D. Kraft (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Renato E. Reside Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | No abstract |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202004&r= |
| By: | Thitithep Sitthiyot |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses serious drawbacks of existing knowledge in macroeconomics and finance in explaining and predicting economic and financial phenomena. Complexity science is proposed as an alternative approach to be used in order to better understand how economy and financial market work. This paper argues that understanding characteristics of complex system could greatly benefit financial analysts, financial regulators, as well as macroeconomic policy makers. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15294&r= |
| By: | Maureen Were; Kethi Ngoka |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya's foreign trade using quarterly trade data for the period 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. The exploratory analysis shows that growth of Kenya's merchandise exports remained resilient, largely supported by traditional exports of tea and horticultural products. However, the service exports, particularly travel and transport services, were adversely affected. Heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports are observed across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Kenya, Exports, COVID-19, Pandemic |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-8&r= |
| By: | Israel Marques II (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Who supports social policy in settings where institutions are weak? Existing work on social policy preferences focuses on the developed world, where governments can credibly commit to policy, tax evasion is constrained, and governments are accountable. In this paper, I relax these assumptions. I argue that weak accountability under poor institutions allow government officials to expend less effort to collect social policy contributions, decreasing expected revenues.For most, this is akin to a dead-weight cost that saps support for redistribution. For those with a comparative advantage in tax evasion, however, this allows for free-riding on the contributions of others and decreases the costs of social policy. As institutional quality declines and tax evasion becomes easier, individuals with a comparative advantage in tax evasion should therefore be more likely to support redistribution. I test this argument using public opinion data from a survey of 28,000 individuals in 28 post-communist countries. |
| Keywords: | Shadow Economy, Preferences for Redistribution, Public Opinion, Tax Evasion, Comparative Political Economy |
| JEL: | O15 H53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:85/ps/2022&r= |
| By: | Brian Hill (HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mohammed Abdellaoui; Philippe Colo |
| Date: | 2021–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03503996&r= |
| By: | Völker, Richard |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305629&r= |
| By: | Elisa Palagi (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mauro Napoletano (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Andrea Roventini (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Jean-Luc Gaffard (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | We build an agent-based model to study how coordination failures, credit con- straints and unequal access to investment opportunities affect inequality and aggre- gate income dynamics. The economy is populated by households who can invest in alternative projects associated with different productivity growth rates. Access to investment projects also depends on credit availability. The income of each house- hold is determined by the output of the project but also by aggregate demand conditions. We show that aggregate dynamics is affected by income distribution. Moreover, we show that the model features a trickle-up growth dynamics. Redis- tribution towards poorer households raises aggregate demand and is beneficial for the income growth of all agents in the economy. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model is able to reproduce several stylized facts concerning income inequality and social mobility. Finally, we test the impact of redistributive fiscal policies, showing that fiscal policies facilitating access to investment opportunities by poor households have the largest impact in terms of raising long-run aggregate income and decreasing income inequality. Moreover, policy timing is important: fiscal policies that are implemented too late may have no significant effects on in- equality. |
| Keywords: | income inequality,social mobility,credit constraints,coordination failures,effective demand,trickle-up growth,fiscal policy JEL classification: C63,D31,E63,E21 |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03509091&r= |
| By: | Coad, Alex (Waseda Business School); Mathew, Nanditha (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Pugliese, Emanuele (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)) |
| Abstract: | We develop and apply a novel methodology for quantifying the capability development of firms, and putting these capabilities (and hence also the firms) in a hierarchy, that we refer to as their position on the capabilities ladder. Our nestedness algorithm, inspired by biology and network science, defines a capability as complex if it is performed by only a few firms at the upper rungs of the ladder. We analyze balance sheet and innovation data of almost 40,000 Indian firms for the time period 1988-2015, and observe significant nestedness. Lower rungs of the capabilities ladder correspond to basic managerial and production capabilities. Mid-level rungs correspond to internationalization and acquiring absorptive capacity. Higher level rungs are more related to M&A and innovation. ICT capabilities have become more fundamental lower-level rungs on the capabilities ladder in recent years. We find that capability ranking can explain future growth patterns and survival probability of firms, summing up in one number their future potential trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Capabilities, Competences, Complexity, Balance sheet data, Resources |
| JEL: | L2 D2 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021031&r= |
| By: | Luca Fornaro; Federica Romei |
| Abstract: | We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable services. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully beared domestically, however, part of the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap, and implement an excessively tight monetary policy during tradable goodsdriven recoveries. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric shocks, reallocation, monetary policy, international monetary cooperation, inflation, global supply shortages |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1814&r= |
| By: | Laitin, David D; Miguel, Edward; Alrababa'h, Ala'; Bogdanoski, Aleksandar; Grant, Sean; Hoeberling, Katherine; Hyunjung Mo, Cecilia; Moore, Don A; Vazire, Simine; Weinstein, Jeremy; Williamson, Scott |
| Abstract: | While the social sciences have made impressive progress in adopting transparent research practices that facilitate verification, replication, and reuse of materials, the problem of publication bias persists. Bias on the part of peer reviewers and journal editors, as well as the use of outdated research practices by authors, continues to skew literature toward statistically significant effects, many of which may be false positives. To mitigate this bias, we propose a framework to enable authors to report all results efficiently (RARE), with an initial focus on experimental and other prospective empirical social science research that utilizes public study registries. This framework depicts an integrated system that leverages the capacities of existing infrastructure in the form of public registries, institutional review boards, journals, and granting agencies, as well as investigators themselves, to efficiently incentivize full reporting and thereby, improve confidence in social science findings. In addition to increasing access to the results of scientific endeavors, a well-coordinated research ecosystem can prevent scholars from wasting time investigating the same questions in ways that have not worked in the past and reduce wasted funds on the part of granting agencies. |
| Keywords: | file drawer problem, null findings, publication bias, registries, research transparency, Prevention |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt9cq8j822&r= |
| By: | Anna Balestra (CSEA, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Raul Caruso (Department of Economic Policy and CSEA, Universita` Cattolica del Sacro Cuore CESPIC, Catholic University “Our Lady of Good Counsel”) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of EDUMILEX, namely the ratio between investment in education and military expenditure on economic performance, i.e. GDP per capita and labor productivity, using a panel data estimation for 60 countries over the period 2000-2018. The findings highlight a non-linear relationship. In particular, results suggest that a cubic relationship exists between EDUMILEX and economic performance. The value of EDUMILEX computed at the critical value can be considered the target variable for economic policy. Heterogeneity between developed and non-developed has been also investigated. Findings confirm that the effect of EDUMILEX is heterogeneous. Lower values of EDUMILEX are required to increase of economic performance in developed countries compared to non-developed ones. |
| Keywords: | Peace, Education, Military Expenditures, Economic Growth, Development |
| JEL: | H56 H52 O47 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pea:wpaper:1017&r= |
| By: | Nizam MelikÅŸah Demirtas; Orhan Torul |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2021/05&r= |
| By: | Jack Britton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ben Waltmann (Institute for Fiscal Studies and IFS) |
| Abstract: | The ‘curse of dimensionality’ is a common problem in the estimation of dynamic models: as models get more complex, the computational cost of solving these models rises exponentially. Keane and Wolpin (1994) proposed a method for addressing this problem in finite-horizon dynamic discrete choice models by evaluating only a subset of state space points by Monte Carlo integration and interpolating the value of the remainder. This method was widely used in the late 1990s and 2000s but has rarely been used since, as it was found to be unreliable in some settings. In this paper, we develop an improved version of their method that relies on three amendments: systematic sampling, data-guided selection of state space points for Monte Carlo integration, and dispensing with polynomial interpolation when a multicollinearity problem is detected. With these improvements, the Keane and Wolpin (1994) method achieves excellent approximation performance even in a model with a large state space and substantial ex ante heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/13&r= |
| By: | Molly Paterson (Monash University); Jaai Parasnis (Department of Economics, Monash University); Michelle Rendall (Department of Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | The performance of students in numeracy tests reveals gaps based on students’ gender and household income. In this paper, using longitudinal data on Australian children, we show the interrelationship between (i) socioeconomic gaps based on early-life household income, and (ii) the gender gap in numeracy. We find that between Grades 3 to 9, boys have a distinct advantage in numeracy scores over girls, which widens over time. We also find that, by Grade 9, poorer female students are doubly disadvantaged. This disadvantage does not arise because of differences in socioeconomic status between boys and girls but because the effect of a lower socioeconomic background on test scores is significant only for girls. We find that mother’s education and labor force status play an important role in the emergence of gender gaps, at both ends (top and bottom) of the income distribution. We confirm that early life circumstances continue to impact student’s achievement well into adolescence and these exacerbate gender gaps, thus demonstrating the importance of targeted early interventions to address gaps in key skills acquisition for the modern economy. |
| Keywords: | Australia, parental education, household income, numeracy, gender |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2022-02&r= |
| By: | Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ella Johnson-Watts (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Robert Joyce (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Fabien Postel-Vinay (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Peter Spittal (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bristol); Xiaowei Xu (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We develop a measure of labour market opportunities for heterogenous types of worker, exploiting information on their suitability di?erent jobs encoded in historical patterns of worker mobility. We provide a theoretical foundation for our measure, which features naturally in a general random search framework. Our measure is ?exible in the sense that it admits general de?nitions of worker and job heterogeneity, and is easily implementable empirically with data on worker mobility and labour demand. We apply our measure to high-quality data on labour demand in the UK, based on the universe of 104.7 million job adverts posted online from January 2015 to June 2021. We demonstrate the utility of our measure with an analysis of worker prospects throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. First, while the direct impact of lockdown policies was concentrated on relatively few industries, labour demand fell much more broadly. And, as our measure highlights, the full e?ects were broader still because of the disruption to usual career progression, even for those in less-a?ected sectors such as healthcare. Second, despite aggregate labour demand returning to pre-pandemic levels by June 2021, 25% of the workforce faced new job opportunities more than 10% below pre-pandemic levels. This is because of a change in the composition of vacancy postings (towards lower-paying occupations) which our measure of labour market opportunities is sensitive to. Finally, the majority (64%) of unemployed workers faced at least 10% more competition for jobs from unemployed jobseekers than before the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/29&r= |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Kaur, Gurleen (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Rangan, Divy (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Kaur, Amandeep (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the fiscal federalism processes in four countries in the global south - viz., South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Nepal - focussing on their revenue and expenditure assignments and intergovernmental revenue sharing mechanisms. The significance of focussing on federations in global south is that the processes are still evolving in terms of "optimal concurrency" in theexpenditure and revenue assignments; and "revenue sharing" norms. The common feature of all these federations is the vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances emanating from the asymmetric revenue and expenditure assignments and in turn identifying and restating the role of intergovernmental fiscal transfers to arrive at economic convergence across jurisdictions. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:21/363&r= |
| By: | Mel Lorenzo Accad (University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Are new mayors more responsive to disasters than their reelected counterparts? The identification strategy is based on slim vote margin in which new and reelected mayors are found to be as if randomly assigned. We find that with greater storm exposure: new mayors spend more on health sector than reelected mayors. We don’t find stable and statistically significant result in other sectors and in total municipal income or expenditure. |
| Keywords: | election; accountability; disaster response |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H84 O17 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202003&r= |
| By: | Manuela Pedio |
| Abstract: | The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – 2009 has raised the attention of policy-makers and researchers about the interconnectedness among the volatility of the returns of financial assets as a potential source of risk that extends beyond the usual changes in correlations and include transmission channels that operate through the higher order co-moments of returns. In this paper, we investigate whether a newly developed, forward-looking measure of volatility spillover risk based on option implied volatilities shows any predictive power for stock returns. We also compare the predictive performance of this measure with that of the volatility spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2008, 2012), which is based on realized, backward-looking volatilities instead. While both measures show evidence of in-sample predictive power, only the option-implied measure is able to produce out-of-sample forecasts that outperform a simple historical mean benchmark. |
| Keywords: | connectedness, volatility networks, implied volatility, realized volatility, equity return predictability, spillover risk |
| JEL: | G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21154&r= |
| By: | J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X Bikker; J.G.J. Bekooij |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of market forces on competitive behaviour and efficiency in healthcare by investigating the Dutch healthcare insurance reform in 2006. This reform replaced the dual system of public and private insurance with a single compulsory health insurance scheme, in which insurance providers compete for customers in a free market. We measure competition directly from either shifts in market shares, or developments in profits. Using formal tests we find that in each approach a structural break occurs after the reform: competition is significantly higher after 2006 than before. Several robustness tests confirm this outcome. Nevertheless, we find that the health insurance sector is still less competitive than the banking, manufacturing and service industries, and even less competitive than life insurance. |
| Keywords: | (regulated) competition, concentration, healthcare insurance, performance-conduct-structure model, boone-indicator, scale economies |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2104&r= |
| By: | Grohmann, Rafael; Pereira, Gabriel (Aarhus University); Guerra, Ana; Abílio, Ludmila Costhek; Moreschi, Bruno; Jurno, Amanda |
| Abstract: | This article discusses how Brazilian platform workers experience and respond to platform scams through three case studies. Drawing from digital ethnographic research, vlogs/interviews of workers, and literature review, we argue for a conceptualization of “platform scam” that focuses on multiple forms of platform dishonesty and uncertainty. We characterize scam as a structuring element of the algorithmic management enacted by platform labor. The first case engages with when platforms scam workers by discussing Uber drivers’ experiences with the illusive surge pricing. The second case discusses when workers (have to) scam platforms by focusing on Amazon Mechanical Turk microworkers’ experiences with faking their identities. The third case presents when platforms lead workers to scam third parties, by engaging with how Brazilian click farm platforms’ workers use bots/fake accounts to engage with social media. Our focus on “platform scams” thus highlights the particular dimensions of faking, fraud, and deception operating in platform labor. This notion of platform scam expands and complexifies the understanding of scam within platform labor studies. Departing from workers' experiences, we engage with the asymmetries and unequal power relations present in the algorithmic management of labor. |
| Date: | 2021–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:mediar:7ejqn&r= |
| By: | Valentina Avramescu (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have analyzed aspects of the psychological mechanisms underlying the formation of the authenticity of the testimony. The elements that define the sensory reception are identified, the sensation and the perception shaping the psychic process of knowledge. Also, the factors likely to distort the sensory reception of the witnesses are presented and aspects of a subjective nature that influence the perceptual process are highlighted. |
| Keywords: | perception, sensory reception, emotional state, memory storage, memory reactivation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0087&r= |
| By: | Ernst Fehr; Thomas Epper (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Julien Senn |
| Abstract: | Increasing inequality and associated egalitarian sentiments have again put redistribution on the political agenda. Other-regarding preferences may also affect support for redistribution, but knowledge about their distribution in the broader population and how they are associated with political support for redistributive policies is still scarce. In this paper, we take advantage of Swiss direct democracy, where people voted several times on strongly redistributive policies in national plebiscites, to study the link between other-regarding preferences and support for redistribution in a broad sample of the Swiss population. We document that inequality aversion and altruistic concerns play a quantitatively large positive role in the support for redistribution, in particular for more affluent individuals. In addition, previously identified key motives underlying opposition to redistribution-such as the belief that effort is an important driver of individual success-play no role for selfish individuals but are highly relevant for altruistic and egalitarian individuals. Finally, while inequality averse individuals display strong support for policies that primarily aim at reducing the incomes of the rich, altruistic individuals are considerably less supportive of such policies. Thus, knowledge about the fundamental properties and the distribution of individuals' other-regarding preferences provides a deeper understanding about who is likely to support specific redistributive policies. |
| Keywords: | Social Preferences,Altruism,Inequality Aversion,Preference Heterogeneity,Demand for Redistribution |
| Date: | 2022–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03506826&r= |
| By: | Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from the original study replicate, with similar effect sizes. Additionally, we extend the original analysis by correlating a new individual index of debt aversion on individual characteristics such as gender, cognitive ability, and risk aversion. The findings suggest that gender and risk aversion are not correlated with debt aversion. However, cognitive ability is positively correlated with debt aversion. Overall, this paper confirms the importance of debt aversion in intertemporal consumption problems and validates the approach of Meissner (2016). |
| Keywords: | Debt Aversion,Replication,Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D84 G11 G41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20221&r= |
| By: | Andrew Foote |
| Abstract: | The Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes were originally released by Census in March 2018. As discussed in other publications (Foote et al. [2019]), the earnings data are protected using differential privacy methods. This protection method is more robust than alternatives, and more accurate than other DP methods, there is still error induced by the protection system. The purpose of this short technical note is to provide estimates of the error induced by the protection method. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:22-01&r= |
| By: | Ian Nicole A. Generalao (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Using the task-based framework, this study measures the level of skill transferability across occupations by building an occupational distance measure. The distance measure allows us to compare occupations in terms of their task profiles. Skill transferability between two occupations is high if the occupations are ‘close’ with each other and low if occupations are ‘far’ from each. In addition, the distance measure allows us to classify which occupational moves are considered an upskilling, down-skilling or lateral occupational moves. The occupational distance measure is also applied to the sample of TVET graduates to measure their level of occupational mobility pre- and post-training. This has important implications in terms of the amount of additional training and education needed by individuals to move from one occupation to another. This study constitutes a basis for further studies on understanding the relationship among occupational distances, mobility and wage differentials in different economies. |
| Keywords: | Tasks; Skills; Human Capital; Occupational Mobility |
| JEL: | J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202008&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020 using receipt of a hypothetical unanticipated, one-time income payment. Reported MPCs are low, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic un-certainty. Further, the fraction of respondents that report they would change their transfer payments to or from family and friends is almost as large as the fraction that report they would increase their spending. This means that targeting direct ?scal stimulus payments to high-MPC individuals could be partly undone, and that the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC. |
| Date: | 2021–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/03&r= |
| By: | Anell, Anders (Department of Business Administration, Lund University); Dietrichson, Jens (VIVE - The Danish Center for Social Science Research); Ellegård, Lina Maria (Department of Economics, Lund University); Kjellsson, Gustav (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | Market frictions, such as imperfect information or hassle costs, may reduce benefits from market incentives in healthcare settings. We use data from two randomised policy interventions in a Swedish region, which improved the access to provider information and reduced the switching costs of one percent of the adult population and of a sample of new residents. We examine the effects of the interventions on a large number of clinical process quality measures, access to care, and adverse health events, measured at the individual level. We find no significant effect of the interventions on any of the quality measures. |
| Keywords: | Market frictions; Field experiment; Care quality; Primary care; Sweden |
| JEL: | D89 I11 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020. Reported MPCs are low, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic uncertainty. Some respondents report that they would respond to a one-time income payment by transferring more to friends and family, others report they would see a decline in the payments received. Targeting payments to high-MPC individuals could be partly undone. Further, the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC, even if all individuals receive the same payment. |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/35&r= |
| By: | Fuchsman, Dillon (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); McGee, Josh (University of Arkansas); Zamarro, Gema (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Adequately saving for retirement requires both planning and knowledge about available retirement savings options. Teachers participate in a complex set of different plan designs and benefit tiers, and many do not participate in Social Security. While teachers represent a large part of the public workforce, relatively little is known regarding their knowledge about and preparation for retirement. We administered a survey to a nationally representative sample of teachers through RAND’s American Teacher Panel and asked teachers about their retirement planning and their employer sponsored retirement plans. We find that while most teachers are taking steps to prepare for retirement, many teachers lack the basic retirement knowledge necessary to plan effectively. Teachers struggled to identify their plan type, how much they are contributing to their plans, retirement eligibility ages, and who contributes to Social Security. These results suggest that teacher retirement reform may not be disruptive for teachers and that better, simpler, and clearer information about teacher retirement plans would be beneficial. |
| Keywords: | teacher pensions; retirement knowledge; retirement planning |
| JEL: | I20 J33 |
| Date: | 2022–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sluecr:2021_005&r= |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, or other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, market prices, retail prices, food prices, regional prices, agricultural stakeholders |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:october2021&r= |
| By: | Ben Grodeck (Department of Economics, Monash University); Philip J. Grossman (Department of Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Historically, positive reinforcement (PRI) for charitable giving happens after the fact; thank-you letters, calls, or gifts from the charities to donors. With online giving becoming more prominent, this creates an opportunity for instantaneous PRI. Our study offers the first evidence, to our knowledge, of the effect of instantaneous PRI on donation behavior. We conduct a large-scale online experiment on Amazon Mturk (n=2,375). Participants are randomly assigned to either a baseline with no PRI; a treatment in which subjects receive a static PRI thumbs up emoji (a general recognized gesture of approval); a treatment in which subjects receive a dynamic PRI thumbs up emoji [the emoji increases (decreases) in size as the size of the donation increases (decreases)]; and two other controls. We find that, consistent with much of the findings on thank-you letters, calls, and gifts, our instantaneous dynamic PRI has no significant positive effects on donation behavior. Surprisingly, we also find that static PRI results in significantly less being donated. These results suggest that organizations and policymakers should be hesitant in using instantaneous PRI, as it ranges from null to negative effects. |
| Keywords: | Positive reinforcement, Charitable giving, Experiment, Fundraising |
| JEL: | C90 D91 H40 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Tomaso Duso; Klaus Gugler; Joanna Piechucka |
| Abstract: | Worldwide, the overwhelming majority of large horizontal mergers are cleared by antitrust authorities unconditionally. The presumption seems to be that efficiencies from these mergers are sizeable. We calculate the compensating efficiencies that would prevent a merger from harming consumers for 1,014 mergers affecting 12,325 antitrust markets scrutinized by the European Commission between 1990 and 2018. Compensating efficiencies seem too large to be achievable for many mergers. Barriers to entry and the number of firms active in the market are the most important factors determining their size. We highlight concerns about the Commission’s merger enforcement being too lax. |
| Keywords: | Compensating efficiencies, Efficiency gains, Merger control, Concentration, Screens, HHI, Mergers, Unilateral Effects, Market Definition, Entry barriers |
| JEL: | L19 L24 L40 K21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1979&r= |
| By: | Martien Lamers; Thomas Present; Rudi Vander Vennet (-) |
| Abstract: | Have Euro Area banks restored viability in the post-crisis era? We investigate profitability convergence for Euro Area banks over the period 2009-2020 using the concepts of ß and s convergence and a club clustering algorithm. Our evidence is consistent with a slow catch up of the weaker banks, but we also document that better performing banks converge towards a lower profit level, suggesting a ‘great convergence’ towards the middle. Moreover, we identify a cluster of banks exhibiting dismal profit dynamics, indicating the need for a restructuring of part of the Euro Area banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Euro Area banks, bank profitability, ß convergence, s convergence, club clustering analysis |
| JEL: | C38 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:22/1039&r= |
| By: | Olga Fuentes Contreras; Ximena Quintanilla Domínguez; Alexandra Rueda Restrepo; Eugenio Salvo Cifuentes; Diego Herrera Astorga; Maria Fernanda Toledo Badilla (Studies Division, Chilean Pension Supervisor) |
| Abstract: | En el contexto de la pandemia por COVID-19 y de las crisis sanitaria y económica derivadas de esta, como una medida sin precedentes para el sistema de pensiones chileno se permitieron tres retiros anticipados de ahorros previsionales. A junio de 2021, estas tres leyes han resultado en un total de US$ 50.000 millones retirados. |
| Keywords: | Sistema de Pensiones de contribución definida |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sdp:sdpwps:67&r= |
| By: | David Milesi-Gaches (DEPARTMENT OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES BOURNEMOUTH UNIVERSITY FERN BARROW POOLE DORSET GBR - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture) |
| Abstract: | Public transports were strongly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic through, for example, networks shut down, or lockdown and distancing measures. Transport scenarios are helpful tools on which policies, development and management strategies are built. To see if we can still rely on pre-2020 scenarios in a post-pandemic world, it is important to explore if the epidemic, pandemic or infectious (EPI) risk was addressed or discussed. Hence, this paper proposes a systematic review to explore how the EPI risk and health are discussed in transport scenarios and transport scenario guidance documents. Both scientific and grey literatures were reviewed, through 17 search engines, with French and English keywords. Data were then processed through a Factor Analysis of Mixed Data (FAMD). The sample of 110 documents underlines a poor consideration for the EPI risk, with only 4 papers addressing, 7 mentioning and 37 indirectly mentioning the EPI risk, despite an important consideration for health (101 documents discussed health, with an average number of 3.45 health topics addressed). When discussed, the EPI risk is always addressed through the prism of health although it is recognized as a global disruptor for the whole society. Indeed, the more health topics are addressed, the more it is likely to find the EPI risk addressed in public transport scenarios or guidance documents. |
| Abstract: | Les transports publics ont été fortement impactés par la pandémie de Covid-19 à travers, par exemple, des fermetures de réseaux, ou des mesures de confinement et de distanciation. Les scénarios de transport sont des outils utiles sur lesquels reposent les politiques, les stratégies de développement et de gestion. Pour voir si nous pouvons toujours nous appuyer sur des scénarios pré-2020 dans un monde post-pandémique, il est important d'explorer si le risque épidémique, pandémique ou infectieux a été abordé ou discuté. Par conséquent, cet article propose une revue systématique pour explorer comment le risque épidémique et la santé sont discutés dans les scénarios de transport et les documents de guidance sur les scénarios de transport. La littérature scientifique et la littérature grise ont été passées en revue, via 17 moteurs de recherche, avec des mots-clés en français et en anglais. Les données ont ensuite été traitées par une analyse factorielle de données mixtes (AFDM). L'échantillon de 110 documents souligne une mauvaise prise en compte du risque épidémique, avec seulement 4 articles l'abordant, 7 le mentionnant et 37 le mentionnant indirectement, malgré une prise en compte importante de la santé (101 documents traitent de la santé, avec un nombre moyen de 3,45 sujets de santé abordés). Lorsqu'il est discuté, le risque épidémique est toujours abordé à travers le prisme de la santé bien qu'il soit reconnu comme un perturbateur global pour l'ensemble de la société. En effet, plus les sujets de santé sont abordés, plus il est probable de retrouver le risque épidémique abordé dans les scénarios de transport public ou les documents de guidance sur l'élaboration de scénarios. |
| Keywords: | public transport,scenario,infectious risk,pandemic,environment,Covid-19 |
| Date: | 2021–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03494239&r= |
| By: | Javier García-Cicco |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the dynamics of a small and open economy under simple rules for alternative monetary-policy instruments, in a model with imperfectly anchored expectations. The inflation-targeting consensus indicates that interest-rate rules are preferred, instead of using either a monetary aggregate or the exchange rate as the main instrument; with arguments usually presented under rational expectations and full credibility. In contrast, we assume agents use econometric models to form inflation expectations, capturing limited credibility. In particular, we emphasize the exchange rate’s role in shaping medium- and long-term inflation forecasts. We compare the dynamics after a shock to external-borrowing costs (arguably one of the most important sources of fluctuations in emerging countries) under three policy rules: a Taylor-type rule for the interest rate, a constant-growth-rate rule for monetary aggregates, and a fixed exchange rate. The analysis identifies relevant trade-offs in choosing among alternative instruments, showing that the relative merits of each of them is indeed influenced by how agents form inflation-related expectations. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:822&r= |
| By: | Adrian Cristian Moise (Spiru Haret University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The study makes a detailed analysis of the main aspects related to the incrimination and the forensic investigation of the crimes committed against safety and health at work in Romanian legislation. Thus, the study first analyzes the offences against safety and health at work contained in the Romanian Criminal Code: the offence of not taking the legal measures of safety and health at work provided by Article 349 of the Romanian Criminal Code and the offence of non-compliance with the legal measures of safety and health at work, stipulated by Article 350 of the Romanian Criminal Code. The study also presents and analyzes the provisions of Article 264 and of Article 265 of the Romanian Labour Code, which refer to crimes in the field of labour relations, safety and health at work. Moreover, the article analyzes and presents some aspects related to Law no. 319/2006 on safety and health at work. This study presents and analyzes several aspects related to the investigation of crimes against safety and health at work, such as: the main issues that need to be clarified by investigating an accident at work and the disposition and conduct of some criminal prosecution acts. |
| Keywords: | crimes committed against safety and health at work, incrimination, forensic, investigation; work accident, criminal prosecution act, Romanian Criminal Code, Romanian Labour Code, Law no. 319/2006 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0089&r= |
| By: | Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Does identification with dominant ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper contributes to the comparative analysis of the role of ethnic background in shaping attitudes towards government's role in reducing income inequalities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, where nearly half-abillion people live and belong to more than sixty ethnic groups. Using a pool of nationallyrepresentative survey data from the five Southeast Asian countries, we first classified the respondents by population dominance of the ethnic groups they claim to belong, and then examine for differences across members of dominant ethnic groups in their preferences for government redistribution. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. No systematic differences in their redistributive preferences are found, however, between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller groups. The results are fairly robust even after accounting for the possible moderating effects of income status, trust in government and in people, subjective social mobility, concerns about social fairness, and views on the importance of fate in one's life. Moreover, the results hold out even in the sub-sample of low-income people for whom economic considerations more than ethnicity are expected to determine their redistributive preferences. Notwithstanding the importance of shared norms or beliefs in aligning he social choices of people with same ethnic or racial background, our results suggest their population sizes, which possibly reflect their relative influence over domestic policies, also matter. |
| Keywords: | Government assistance; trust in officials; satisfaction with performance; treatment effects; Philippines |
| JEL: | H31 H49 D72 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202104&r= |
| By: | Alexander Chudik; M. Hashem Pesaran; Alessandro Rebucci |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 effective reproduction numbers worldwide and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic, taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of mutations. Evidence based on panel data modeling indicates that the diversity of outcomes that we document resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandated and voluntary social distancing and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation, with no one factor independently capable of lowering the reproduction number below one. However, the importance of these factors declined over time, with vaccine uptake driving heterogeneity in country experiences in 2021. Our approach also allows us to identify the basic reproduction number, R0, and how it changes with mutations. It is precisely estimated and differs little across countries. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; multiplication factor; under-reporting; social distancing; self-isolation; SIR model; reproduction number; pandemics; vaccine |
| JEL: | D0 F60 C4 I12 E7 |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:93671&r= |
| By: | Alex Bryson (University College London, UK); John Forth (Bayes Business School, City, University of London, UK) |
| Abstract: | We define worker representation, identify the factors that determine demand for it among workers and employers, discuss difficulties in supplying worker representation, and reflect on the implications of worker representation for worker welfare and the behavior and performance of employers. |
| Keywords: | worker representation; unions; collective bargaining; voice |
| JEL: | J5 J51 J52 J53 J83 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2201&r= |
| By: | Yann Bramoullé (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Rachel E Kranton (Duke University, Durham, US) |
| Abstract: | What patterns of economic relations arise when people are altruistic rather than strategically self-interested? This paper introduces an altruism network into a simple model of choice among partners for economic activity. With concave utility, agents effectively become inequality averse towards friends and family. Rich agents preferentially choose to work with poor friends despite productivity losses. Hence, network inequality-the divergence in incomes within sets of friends and family-is key to how altruism shapes economic relations and output. Skill homophily also plays a role; preferential contracts and productivity losses decline when rich agents have poor friends with requisite skills. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2202&r= |
| By: | Todd M. Schmit; Richard Stamm; Roberta M. Severson |
| Abstract: | Engaged learning projects can effectively complement Extension programming goals and course learning objectives that enrich the outcomes for both components. A cooperative business management class at Cornell University provides an evaluation of the fundamental principles, structure, finance, and governance associated with the cooperative business model. In so doing, students analyze contemporary issues facing modern cooperatives. In collaboration with extension programming surrounding cooperative enterprises, contemporary issues are emphasized through projects with actual cooperative businesses. Cooperatives have included farmer-owned, customer-owned, and worker-owned businesses. Students benefit from applying principles learned in class, while cooperatives benefit from the fresh, new perspectives they receive from people outside their organization. Both value the highly interactive nature of this engagement and to which work plans and expected deliverables can and often do change throughout the course of the projects. This paper synthesizes the opportunities and obstacles associated with developing and administering engaged learning projects from the learned experiences of the class instructor, professional Extension staff, and cooperative industry clients. Recommended best practices are elucidated to better inform faculty interested in implementing this dynamic approach to extension and classroom education. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cuaepw:317828&r= |
| By: | Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Juan P. Baquero (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sanghmitra Gautam (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the marriage decisions of men and women in rural India, focusing on the added attractiveness of sanitation within the marital living arrangement. We demonstrate that the Government’s Total Sanitation Campaign (TSC) changed marriage market outcomes for both men and women. To decompose the overall policy impact on the marriage market equilibrium, we develop a simple matching model. The model is identified and estimated using data from the Indian Human Development household survey (IHDS) and quasi-random variation from the TSC. Decompositions reveal that (i) cohorts within TSC exposed markets experienced a shift in marital gains both across matches and within a given match, which is characterised by a marked gender asymmetry, and that (ii) TSC exposure led to a decline in women’s effective control over resources, reflected in the surplus division. |
| Date: | 2021–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/44&r= |
| By: | Farnworth, Cathy Rozel; Lecoutere, Els; Galiè, Alessandra; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Elias, Marlène; Ihalainen, Markus; Roeven, Lara; Bharati, Preeti; Valencia, Ana Maria Paez; Crossland, Mary; Vinceti, Barbara; Monterroso, Iliana |
| Abstract: | An increasing body of literature suggests that agriculture is “feminizing†in many low and middle-income countries. Definitions of feminisation of agriculture vary, as do interpretations of what drives the expansion of women’s roles in agriculture over time. Understanding whether, how, and why feminisation of agriculture is occurring, and finding ways to properly understand and document this process, requires effective research methodologies capable of producing nuanced data. This article builds on five research projects that set out to deepen narratives of feminisation of agriculture by empirically exploring the dynamics and impacts of diverse processes of feminisation—or masculinisation—of agriculture on gender relations in agriculture and food systems. To contribute to the development of effective research methodologies, the researchers working on these projects associate the insights they have derived in their empirical research with the methodologies they have used. They reflect on how their methodological innovations enabled them to obtain new, or more nuanced, insights into processes of feminisation of agriculture. A first insight is that the definition of ‘feminisation of agriculture’ is a decisive factor in determining the evidence we produce on the process. Second, the feminisation of agriculture should be understood as a nonlinear continuum. Research methodologies need to be capable of capturing dynamics, complexity, as well as multiple and diverse context—and time—specific drivers. Third, bias in data can arise from gender norms which mediate whether women are acknowledged by wider society as farmers in their own right. Such norms may result in significant underestimations of women’s roles in agriculture. This observation warrants a critical awareness that data used to measure or proxy aspects of feminisation of agriculture may reflect such biases. Finally, some research methodologies can be useful to identify and leverage entry points to support women’s agency and empowerment in processes of feminisation of agriculture. |
| Keywords: | feminization; gender; agriculture; research; empowerment; women; women's empowerment; methodology; feminisation of agriculture |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2077&r= |
| By: | Eftichios S. Sartzetakis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Anastasios Xepapadeas (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Busines); Athanasios Yannacopoulos (Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Continuously increasing consumption of material goods drives current resource and environmental crises, including climate change and loss of biodiversity. Technology o¤ers solutions, the development and the adoption of which though is not at the speed required to address the crises. Therefore, demand side responses have to be triggered using policies with economists suggesting the use of price signals. Increases in fuel prices during the last decade in both Europe and North America though, have not yielded the expected reductions in the fuel economy. Furthermore, ambitious increases in fuel prices have resulted in considerable opposition, especially by low-income people. The present paper o¤ers an explanation for the reduced e¤ectiveness of environmental taxation by focusing on relatively high-income individuals whose consumption of highly polluting material goods is driven by motivations to improve their social status. Furthermore, the paper shows that complementing the tax with information provision aiming at moderating status seeking overconsumption improves social welfare. Decoupling consumption of highly polluting material goods from social status in individuals?well-being, through information campaigns and/or adver-tisement, could have a substantial environmental e¤ect directly and also indirectly by improving the e¤ectiveness of taxation. |
| Keywords: | status-seaking, replicator dynamics, information provision, environmental taxation |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 D62 D82 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2022_01&r= |
| By: | Thomas, Hallie; Kothari, Simple Futarmal; Husøy, Andreas; Jensen, Rigmor Højland; Katsarava, Zaza; Tinelli, Michela; Steiner, Timothy J. |
| Abstract: | Background: Headache disorders are disabling, with major consequences for productivity, yet the literature is silent on the relationship between headache-attributed disability and lost productivity, often erroneously regarding the two as synonymous. We evaluated the relationship empirically, having earlier found that investment in structured headache services would be cost saving, not merely cost-effective, if reductions in headache-attributed disability led to > 20% pro rata recovery of lost productivity. Methods: We used individual participant data from Global Campaign population-based studies conducted in China, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Russia, and from Eurolight in Lithuania, Luxembourg and Spain. We assessed relationships in migraine and probable medication-overuse headache (pMOH), the most disabling common headache disorders. Available symptom data included headache frequency, usual duration and usual intensity. We used frequency and duration to estimate proportion of time in ictal state (pTIS). Disability, in the sense used by the Global Burden of Disease study, was measured as the product of pTIS and disability weight for the ictal state. Impairment was measured as pTIS * intensity. Lost productivity was measured as lost days (absence or 20% in all countries but Pakistan). Analysing impairment rather than disability increased variability. For pMOH, with smaller numbers, associations were generally weaker, occasionally negative and mostly not significant. Conclusion: Relief of disability through effective treatment of migraine is expected, in most countries, to recover > 20% pro rata of lost productivity, above the threshold for investment in structured headache services to be cost saving. |
| Keywords: | association analysis; disability; global campaign against headache; headache disorders; health economics; health policy; impairment; lost productivity |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113355&r= |
| By: | Ping Hua (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | By using panel data of 15 Chinese manufacturing industries over the 2005-2014 period from OECD TiVA and WIOD databases, the impact of China's GVCs participation on labor productivity is estimated. We find that while the productivity elasticity of the share of sector's foreign value added relative to sector's exports known as sector backward linkages is negative, that relative to China's gross exports named structure backward linkage is positive. As the annual average growth rates of both backward linkages are negative, China's backward linkages have contributed to productivity growth of 6.41% per year on average. We find that the positive productivity elasticity of the share of domestic intermediate goods embodied in exports of third countries relative to sector's exports, named sector forward linages together with a positive annual average growth rate, and that relative to China's exports named structure forward linkages together with a negative annual average growth rate, have increased productivity of 1.97% per year on average. We find finally that GVCs position is improved from 0.3 in 2005 to 0.7 in 2014. China's GVCs participation exerted positive productivity effects via optimizing resource allocation inside sectors towards more efficiency ones, via moving up from low productivity backward linkages to higher productivity forward linkages and via improving its position. This diminished the risk to be entrenched in low-profitability low productivity growth GVCs activities in China. However, the productivity contribution of backward linkages 3 times higher than that of forward linkage suggests that the future positive productivity impact of GVCs moving up may be much more difficult in a less favorable context (trade war between China and USA, reindustrialization and trade protection related to Covid-19 for example). |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification Numbers: F62,F63,O5,O47 global value chains,manufacturing productivity,China |
| Date: | 2021–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03505687&r= |
| By: | Lazarus, William F. |
| Abstract: | This report is a summary of the data contained on the farmland sales portion of the Minnesota Land Economics (MLE) web site (http://landeconomics.umn.edu ) as of February 1, 2022. It is formally reissued each year, as new sales data become available. The present document consists largely of graphs and tables summarizing sales over the past twenty-four years. It provides averages at the multi-county region and at the statewide levels of aggregation. Individual transaction data are available for downloading and analysis at the MLE web site. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:317852&r= |
| By: | Matteo Gamalerio; Massimo Morelli; Margherita Negri |
| Abstract: | Institutions matter for the political choice of policies, and hence the consideration of the median voter's preferences should not be considered sufficient. We study theoretically and empirically how different electoral systems affect the level of openness of a country or city, zooming on the labor market as the main source of heterogeneous economic preferences towards immigration. The general result is that a polity is more open to immigration the less likely it is that policy making can be supported by a plurality of voters who do not constitute the absolute majority. There is evidence for this result at all levels in terms of correlations, and we establish causality via regression discontinuity design for the Italian case. |
| Keywords: | Electoral Rules, Immigration, Occupational Choice |
| JEL: | D72 J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21157&r= |
| By: | Lhuissier Stéphane |
| Abstract: | Motivated by empirically characterizing the relationship between financial conditions and downside macroeconomic risks in the euro area, I develop a regime-switching skew-normal model with time-varying probabilities of transitions. Using Bayesian methods, the model estimates show that a strong cyclical pattern emerges from the conditional skewness (a measure of the asymmetry of the predictive distribution), which has a tendency to rapidly decline to negative territory prior and during recessions. However, the inclusion of financial-specific information in time-varying probabilities does not help to anticipate such skewness nor more generally to provide advance warnings of tail risks. |
| Keywords: | Financial Conditions, Downside Risks, Predictability, Regime-Switching Models |
| JEL: | C11 C2 E32 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:863&r= |
| By: | Blagica Petreski; Bojan Srbinoski |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2022-02/40&r= |
| By: | Office of Health Economics |
| Abstract: | We are pleased to submit the third report to the Charity Commission for England and Wales, OHE's second since becoming a registered charity in December 2016. OHE obtained its charitable status in 2016, an essential achievement towards OHE's development as a health economics research organisation. The report of 2018 demonstrates some of the ways in which OHE has worked to achieve its charitable objectives of advancing the education of the public in general/health care payers/policy makers on the subject of health economics and health care policy; and using health economics methods to produce evidence-based health policy and health care management that contributes to a more efficient and effective health care system. Please refer to our [2020 Research Summary.]( https://www.ohe.org/sites/default/files/ Research%20Summary%202020.pdf) |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:briefg:002403&r= |
| By: | Ning Jia; Raven S. Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail Wozniak |
| Abstract: | We review developments in research on within-country migration, focusing on internal migration in the U.S. We begin by describing approaches to modelling individuals' migration decisions and equilibrium outcomes across local areas. Next, we summarize evidence regarding the impact of migration on individuals' outcomes, implications of migration for local labor market adjustment, and interactions between migration and housing markets. Finally, we discuss evidence on the efficacy of policies aimed at encouraging migration and conclude by highlighting important unanswered questions that are critical for informing migration-related policy. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration; Migration; Mobility |
| JEL: | J60 J61 J68 R10 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-03&r= |
| By: | Hao Dong; Taisuke Otsu; Luke Taylor |
| Abstract: | We propose two novel bandwidth selection procedures for the nonparametric regression model with classical measurement error in the regressors. Each method is based on evaluating the prediction errors of the regression using a second (density) deconvolution. The first approach uses a typical leave-one-out cross validation criterion, while the second applies a bootstrap approach and the concept of out-of-bag prediction. We show the asymptotic validity of both procedures and compare them to the SIMEX method of Delaigle and Hall (2008) in a Monte Carlo study. As well as enjoying advantages in terms of computational cost, the methods proposed in this paper lead to lower mean integrated squared error compared to the current state-of-the-art. |
| Keywords: | bandwidth selection, measurement error, bootstrap |
| JEL: | C14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:stiecm:620&r= |
| By: | Petr Janský; Tereza Palanská; Miroslav Palanský |
| Abstract: | Excessive financial secrecy facilitates illicit financial flows, which constitute a major developmental challenge for low-income economies and cause significant tax revenue losses for governments around the world. In this paper we estimate the semi-elasticity of cross-border financial assets to changes in financial secrecy and how it differs for countries at various income levels. We develop a new financial secrecy dataset for the 2011-20 period, which covers many specific policies in addition to the previously studied automatic information exchange. |
| Keywords: | Financial secrecy, Transparency, Secrecy jurisdictions, Tax havens, Offshore financial centres |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-9&r= |
| By: | Lisa Taruttis (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | Dieser Projektbericht ist im Rahmen des Verbundprojektes EnStadt – QUARREE100: Resiliente, integrierte und systemdienliche Energieversorgungssysteme im städtischen Bestandsquartier unter vollständiger Integration erneuerbarer Energien – Reallabor Rüsdorfer Camp entstanden. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic Analysis, Real Estate, Housing market, Energy Efficiency |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:2201&r= |
| By: | Mahshid Abir; Rekar K. Taymour; Jason E. Goldstick; Rosalie Malsberger; Jane Forman; Stuart Hammond; Kathy Wahl |
| Abstract: | The study was done to evaluate levels of missing and invalid values in the Michigan (MI) National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS) (MI-EMSIS) and explore possible causes to inform improvement in data reporting and prehospital care quality. |
| Keywords: | mixed-methods, Michigan, NEMSIS, national emergency medical services information system |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:dec7c5ac13c142be88dc4dc895ee0af1&r= |
| By: | Konda, Bruhan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Dietrich, Stephan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Nillesen, Eleonora (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the type of common identity affects voluntary contribution to public goods in groups that differ in their social image. We conjecture that groups with perceived high-status identity engage in higher levels of collective action compared to groups with perceived low-status identity. We study this using a lab-in-the-field experiment in rural India with members from the top and bottom of the caste hierarchy. Using a 2-person public good game, we empirically test (i) whether a caste gap in contributions emerges when group identities are made salient (ii) whether these differences are driven by the presence of punishment, and (iii) whether exogenously boosting caste identities by a role model prime diminishes the caste gap. Our results show that stereotyped groups fail to act collectively to provide public goods, possibly due to lack of trust towards their own group members. This gap disappears after the role model priming treatment and reaffirms the role of social identity in explaining the difference in contributions between groups that differ in the social image. |
| Keywords: | Common identity, Caste, Public goods, Lab-in-the-field experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D64 D91 H41 |
| Date: | 2021–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021037&r= |
| By: | Ambler, Kate; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Maredia, Mywish K. |
| Abstract: | Livelihoods are changing rapidly in rural areas. Measuring and categorizing peoples’ labor activities in relation to the agricultural sector is important for understanding income earning opportunities and designing effective policy. Conventional data collection methods ask about individuals’ main work activities over the past year. Descriptions are recorded in the field, postcoded, and eventually categorized. This approach is costly to collect, fatiguing for respondents, and may create distortions. We show that a more direct approach, asking respondents to categorize their major work activities themselves, provides similar resulting data despite some caveats and lessons for best enumeration practices. We compare these main activities to a series of yes/no questions about participation in a set of specific work tasks. We find a 12% incidence of “missing†work, whereby individuals who reported participation in at least one but did not have any recorded major activities. Looking by sector of work, women and youth are disproportionately more likely to have agricultural contributions “missed,†while we find no corresponding bias in undercounting of non-agricultural work. Finally, we test the effect of randomly positioning the task-based questions before the listing of major activities but do not find significant effects on the number or type of activities reported. |
| Keywords: | GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; labour; agriculture; surveys; measurement; survey design; women; youth employment; employment; youth; households; rural areas; off farm; on farm |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2050&r= |
| By: | Nicoleta-Elena Heghes (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania); Nelu Nita (George Bacovia University of Bacău, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Due to the process of globalization in general, and computer networks in particular, as a result of the continuous development of information and communication technology, in addition to the undeniable progress of society, new forms of crime specific to cybercrime have emerged and are spreading. It is also one of the greatest threats to humanity of all time. Computer search is an activity different from any other evidentiary procedure, requiring specific rules to take into account its nature. The computer search can be ordered during the criminal investigation by conclusion by the judge of rights and freedoms, and during the trial by the Court. |
| Keywords: | computer systems, cybercrime, computer search warrant, computer search, the tactic of conducting the computer search |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0086&r= |
| By: | Pejman Bahramian (Department of Economics, Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | The Province of Ontario has had an aggressive program of introducing wind electricity generation technologies into its generation supply mix. This, combined with the rigid baseload production by nuclear and hydro plants, has for 20 years created a surplus baseload electricity supply. Pumped hydro storage (PHS) is suggested as an economically viable technology for storing energy from non-dispatchable wind energy sources. An analytical framework has been developed to explore the feasibility of the PHS facility to manage the surplus supply of electricity and compare its cost performance with the alternative gas power plants. Two situations are analyzed. First, the PHS plant uses only surplus energy for the first 20 years of operation. Second, an additional 20 years of PHS usefulness is added by making investments in wind electricity generation to provide energy for pumping. Given the capital costs of building PHS in Ontario, the PHS expansion is not economically cost-effective for utilizing the projected off-peak surpluses. The economic analysis also illustrates that in the context of Ontario, the integration of PHS with wind power generation will have a negative impact on the Canadian economy in all circumstances. This loss is borne mainly by the electricity consumers of Ontario. Even considering the cost of CO2 emissions from a world perspective, this investment is not cost-effective. It would be much better socially from a world perspective and economically from Canada’s perspective if the surplus baseload electricity from Ontario were given away free to the USA. It could then be used to reduce generation by natural gas plants in the USA, hence reducing CO2 emissions globally, without any incremental economic cost to Canada. |
| Keywords: | Economic analysis, Electricity, Ontario, Pumped hydro storage, Wind power |
| JEL: | O55 D61 Q42 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1480&r= |
| By: | Eskander, Shaikh M.S.U.; Fankhauser, Sam |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the economic response of rural households to the 2013 floods in Pakistan. The case study illustrates the important roles of labor supply adjustments and income diversification in coping with climate-related risks. Using detailed household panel data that were collected before and after the 2013 floods, we find that the exposure to flood results in lower participation in farm activities. The overall effects are decreased diversification in the sources of income and ambiguous reduction in inequality which is associated with overall declines in incomes. These changes could be locked in if affected households do not have sufficient assets to resume farming. The results suggest intervention points for public policy, related to labor mobility and access to capital. |
| Keywords: | employment; floods; income diversification; income inequality; Pakistan |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113415&r= |
| By: | Natalie Pierson (The New School, United States) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines private exploration and colonization of space, inspired by the growing interest and advancements in developing space by private industries, notably SpaceX. Marx’s theory of primitive accumulation and David Harvey’s theory of “spatial fix†provide a framework from which to understand why billionaires are attracted to the business of space. Matters of legality are considered in the regulation of space including treaties, their applications, and the unforeseen gaps in the law left by unanticipated private sector growth. Economic feasibility is discussed through cost and revenue estimates of possible marketable products. Environmental impacts, both on Mars and Earth, are reviewed regarding physical landscape and biological contamination. Finally, it explores the ethics of a developing colony in a stressful environment and seeks to unpack the term colonization in a celestial setting. This paper concludes that bringing capitalist ideals and methods into space is not a solution for problems created by capitalism on Earth. Given the concerns identified, it may well exacerbate them. |
| Keywords: | Mars, space, colonization, primitive accumulation, private industry |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0091&r= |
| By: | Philippe Sterkens; Stijn Baert; Eline Moens; Eva Derous; Joey Wuyts (-) |
| Abstract: | The existing burnout literature has predominantly focussed on the determinants of burnout, whereas its consequences for individual careers have received little attention. In this study, we investigate whether recently burned-out individuals and persons with a very high risk of clinical burnout differ in job preferences from non-burned-out workers. Moreover, we link these differences in preferences with (1) diverging perceptions of job demands and resources in a job, as well as (2) distinct weighting of such perceptions. To this end, a highquality sample of 582 employees varying in their history and current risk of burnout judged fictitious job offers with experimentally manipulated characteristics in terms of their willingness to apply as well as perceived job demands and resources. We find that recently burned-out employees appreciate possibilities to telework and fixed feedback relatively more, while being relatively less attracted to opportunities for learning on the job. Moreover, employees with a very high risk of burnout are more attracted to part-time jobs. These findings can be partially explained by differences in the perceived resources offered by jobs. |
| Keywords: | burnout, labour market, job search, job preference, factorial survey experiment |
| JEL: | J62 I12 C91 C83 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:22/1038&r= |
| By: | Anup Malani (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Phoebe Holtzman (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Kosuke Imai (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Cynthia Kinnan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Morgen Miller (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Shailender Swaminathan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Alessandra Voena (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Chicago); Bartosz Woda (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | We report on a large randomized controlled trial of hospital insurance for above-poverty-line Indian households. Households were assigned to free insurance, sale of insurance, sale plus cash transfer, or control. To estimate spillovers, the fraction of households offered insurance varied across villages. The opportunity to purchase insurance led to 59.91% uptake and access to free insurance to 78.71% uptake. Access increased insurance utilization. Positive spillover effects on utilization suggest learning from peers. Many beneficiaries were unable to use insurance, demonstrating hurdles to expanding access via insurance. Across a range of health measures, we estimate no significant impacts on health. |
| Date: | 2021–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/47&r= |
| By: | Johnson, Nancy L. |
| Abstract: | Rapid transformations are occurring in food systems around the world with significant economic, health, and environmental implications. As part of this change, the focus of agricultural production needs to transition from quantity of food production to quality of diets. This brief begins by summarizing evidence from nutrition-sensitive agriculture and explaining how resource tenure and governance issues relate to the production of nutrient-rich foods. The brief then explores the importance of resource tenure and governance issues for diets and health in the context of food system transformation: this section focuses on supporting healthy diets in traditional food systems, meeting the global demand for nutrient-rich foods, and managing and mitigating disease risks in intensifying agricultural landscapes. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, natural resources, tenure, governance, nutrition, health, agricultural research, development, food systems, sustainability, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379953&r= |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, or other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, market prices, retail prices, food prices, regional prices, agricultural stakeholders |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:december2021&r= |
| By: | Adri Du Toit (North-West University, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurship education affords valuable learning to prepare learners for the world of work, including the potential to reduce youth unemployment. South Africa has one of the highest youth unemployment rates globally, making it imperative to develop and expand entrepreneurship education in its school curriculum. The problem that needed investigation, was how such entrepreneurship education needed to be constructed in projects to benefit learners optimally. Literature indicates that education through entrepreneurship — often scaffolded using project-based learning — is preferred above other approaches. Consumer Studies was identified as the only subject in the South African school curriculum that included significant entrepreneurship education, in the form of an entrepreneurship project. The purpose of the current study was therefore to analyze and evaluate that project for its inclusion of project-based learning principles, to determine its strengths and areas for improvement. The intended aim for the research was to develop recommendations to improve the scaffolding of the project to enhance its focus of education through entrepreneurship. The findings of this research contribute to a better understanding of how entrepreneurship education should be scaffolded and implemented into existing subjects. The significance of the research includes that these findings can be used to inform the development of similar projects in other South African school subjects, consequently contributing to expanding effective entrepreneurship education. In the long term, more learners will then be able to benefit from the valuable learning associated with entrepreneurship education, which includes the potential to reduce youth unemployment in this country. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship education, principles, project-based learning, school curriculum, youth unemployment |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0046&r= |
| By: | van Vuuren, Aico (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the Covid-19 pandemic decreased the willingness to pay for urban amenities such as restaurants, cinemas and theaters. We do this by using a hedonic pricing model in combination with a time-gradient difference-in-difference approach. We use a data set that contains virtually all apartments for sale in the larger Stockholm area. We use a very detailed and exible definition of density of urban amenities based on the exact location of these amenities and the walking distance from the apartments to these amenities. We find a decrease of 1.9 percent of apartments that we label as amenity rich. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; urban economics; amenities |
| JEL: | R00 R23 R30 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0818&r= |
| By: | Marica Valente |
| Abstract: | Using machine learning methods in a quasi-experimental setting, I study the heterogeneous effects of introducing waste prices - unit prices on household unsorted waste disposal - on waste demands and social welfare. First, using a unique panel of Italian municipalities with large variation in prices and observables, I show that waste demands are nonlinear. - find evidence of constant elasticities at low prices, and increasing elasticities at high prices driven by income effects and waste habits before policy. Second, I estimate policy impacts on pollution and municipal management costs, and compute the overall social cost savings for each municipality. Social welfare effects are positive for all municipalities after three years of adoption, when waste prices cause significant waste avoidance. |
| Keywords: | Waste pricing, causal effect heterogeneity, machine learning, welfare |
| JEL: | C14 C21 C52 Q53 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1980&r= |
| By: | Foros, Øystein (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Kind, Hans Jarle (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Stähler, Frank (University of Tübingen) |
| Abstract: | Competition between firms that sell incompatible varieties of network products might be fierce, because it is important for each of them to attract a large number of users. The literature therefore predicts that stronger network effects decrease prices and profits. We show that this prediction hinges critically on an implicit or explicit assumption that each consumer buys only one of the varieties offered in the market (singlehoming consumers). We show that multihoming (some consumers buy more than one variety) may arise endogenously if the number of exclusive features that each variety offers is sufficiently high. In sharp contrast to the conventional prediction under consumer singlehoming, we further show that both prices and profits could increase in the strength of the network effects if (some) consumers multihome. However, this does not necessarily imply that profits are higher under multihoming than under singlehoming. On the contrary, multihoming might constitute a prisoner s dilemma for the firms, in the sense that they could make higher profits if each consumer bought only one of the varieties. |
| Keywords: | multihoming; incremental pricing; network effects. |
| JEL: | L13 L14 L82 |
| Date: | 2022–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Bellani, Luna; Fazio, Andrea; Scervini, Francesco |
| Abstract: | Using new data from a three-wave panel survey administered in Germany between May 2020 and May 2021, this paper studies the impact of a negative shock affecting every strata of the population, such as the development of COVID-19, on preferences for redistribution. Exploiting the plausibly exogenous change in severity of the infection rate at the county level, we show that, contrary to some theoretical expectations, the worse the crisis, the lower the support for redistribution of our respondents. We provide further suggestive evidence that this is not driven by a decrease in inequality aversion, but this might be the result of a decrease in trust in the institutions who are in charge of redistributive policies. |
| Keywords: | preferences for redistribution,inequality aversion,COVID-19 |
| JEL: | D31 D63 D72 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:08&r= |
| By: | Philippe de Donder (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Humberto Llavador (Unknown); Stefan Penczynski (Unknown); John E. Roemer (Unknown); Roberto Vélez-Grajales (Unknown) |
| Abstract: | Whether or not to vaccinate one's child is a decision that a parent may approach in several ways. The vaccination game, in which parents must choose whether to vaccinate a child against a disease, is one with positive externalities (herd immunity). In some societies, not vaccinating is an increasingly prevalent behavior, due to deleterious side effects that parents believe may accompany vaccination. The standard game-theoretic approach assumes that parents make decisions according to the Nash behavioral protocol, which is individualistic and non-cooperative. Because of the positive externality that each child's vaccination generates for others, the Nash equilibrium suffers from a free-rider problem. However, in more solidaristic societies, parents may behave cooperatively –they may optimize according to the Kantian protocol, in which the equilibrium is efficient. We test, on a sample of six countries, whether childhood vaccination behavior conforms better to the individualistic or cooperative protocol. In order to do so, we conduct surveys of parents in these countries, to ascertain the distribution of beliefs concerning the subjective probability and severity of deleterious side effects of vaccination. We show that in all the countries of our sample the Kant model dominates the Nash model. We conjecture that, due to the free-rider problem inherent in the Nash equilibrium, a social norm has evolved, quite generally, inducing parents to vaccinate with higher probability than they would in the non-cooperative solution. Kantian equilibrium offers one precise version of such a social norm. |
| Keywords: | Vaccination,Nash equilibrium,Kantian equilibrium,Social norm |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03509263&r= |
| By: | Claudia Cerrone (Middlesex University); Yoan Hermstrüwer (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn); Onur Kesten (School of Economics, The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Public school choice often yields student placements that are neither fair nor efficient. Kesten (2010) proposed an efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm (EADAM) that allows students to consent to waive priorities that have no effect on their assignment. In this article, we provide first experimental evidence on the performance of EADAM. We compare EADAM with the deferred acceptance mechanism (DA) and with two variants of EADAM. In the first variant, we vary the default option: students can object – rather than consent – to the priority waiver. In the second variant, the priority waiver is enforced. We find that both efficiency and truth-telling rates are substantially higher under EADAM than under DA, even though EADAM is not strategy-proof. When the priority waiver is enforced, we observe that efficiency further increases, while truth-telling rates decrease relative to the EADAM variants where students can dodge the waiver. Our results challenge the importance of strategy-proofness as a condition of truth-telling and point to a trade-off between efficiency and vulnerability to preference manipulation. |
| Keywords: | efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm, school choice, consent, default rules, law |
| JEL: | C78 C92 D47 I20 K10 |
| Date: | 2022–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2022_02&r= |
| By: | Gutmann, Jerg; Voigt, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Since the time of the Protestant reformation, Western societies typically consider themselves not to be governed by divine law but based on a social contract. While all rules governing a society are part of this social contract, a country's written constitution is a central and possibly the most important manifestation of the social contract. Once it is accepted that the contents of a constitution are subject to human design, scholars interested in the organization of human societies will ask themselves how constitutions should look like. Or less normatively speaking, the question arises what consequences can be expected from the design of different elements of a constitution. For a long time, (comparative) constitutional legal scholars have tried to evaluate the consequences of constitutional design by drawing on and comparing select country cases. Such a qualitative empirical research approach, however, has its limitations. While it might be suitable to generate theories of how constitutions work, it is difficult to assess whether these explanations are valid when applied to a larger set of constitutions (i.e., whether findings from a single or few countries can be generalized) and whether one theory potentially outperforms other theories in explaining differences across countries and time. Thanks to the ever-increasing availability of sophisticated statistics software, powerful personal computers, and well-trained researchers, quantitative analyses of constitutions have surged in recent decades. (...) |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:56&r= |
| By: | Vladimir Ponczek (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gabriel Ulyssea (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | How does enforcement of labor regulations shape the labor market effects of trade? Does the informal sector introduce greater de facto flexibility, reducing employment losses during bad times? To tackle these questions, we exploit local economic shocks generated by trade liberalization and variation in enforcement capacity across local labor markets in Brazil. In the aftermath of the trade opening, regions with stricter enforcement observed: (i) lower informality effects; (ii) larger losses in overall em-ployment; and (iii) greater reductions in the number of formal plants. Regions with weaker enforcement observed opposite effects. All these effects are concentrated on low-skill workers. Our results indicate that greater de facto labor market flexibility introduced by informality allows both formal firms and low-skill workers to cope better with adverse labor market shocks. |
| Date: | 2021–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/08&r= |
| By: | Jean-Claude Hessing (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam); Rutger-Jan Lange (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam); Daniel Ralph (Cambridge Judge Business School) |
| Keywords: | Optimal stopping, Penalty method, HJB equation, Contraction, Fixed Point, Operator Splitting, Implicit Explicit, Linear Complementarity Problem |
| JEL: | C61 G13 C44 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220070&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted a decade of high growth and development progress in Senegal. While a recession was avoided in 2020, the pandemic caused severe hardship and most households experienced income and job losses. A dynamic recovery is underway since mid-2020, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. However, higher fiscal deficits and lower growth have resulted in a rapid increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal space is narrowing. COVID-19 case numbers remain comparatively low and about 14 percent of the adult population is vaccinated. Recent pandemic waves had little impact on economic activity in the absence of new lockdowns or movement restrictions. |
| Date: | 2022–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/008&r= |
| By: | Adena, Maja; Huck, Steffen |
| Abstract: | In an artefactual field experiment, we implemented a crowdfunding campaign for an institute's summer party and compared donation and contribution framings. We found that the use of the word 'donation' generated higher revenue than the use of 'contribution'. While the individuals receiving the donation framing gave substantially larger amounts, those receiving the contribution framing responded more strongly to reward thresholds and suggestions. An additional survey experiment on MTurk indicated that the term 'donation' triggers more positive emotional responses and that emotions are highly correlated with giving. It appears that making a donation is perceived as a more voluntary act and is thus more successful at generating warm glow than making a contribution. We surmise that this extends to other funding mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | crowdfunding,field experiment,framing |
| JEL: | C93 D64 D12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2016308r2&r= |
| By: | Arpan Ganguly; Danilo Spinola |
| Abstract: | This article aims to theoretically and empirically study the macroeconomic interactions between productive structure and income distribution in the context of the Global Value Chains (GVC). Firstly, we develop a theoretical framework, inspired by the Structuralist macroeconomic literature, establishing distinct regimes in the scenario of globalized production chains. The regimes are defined in terms of (1) a structure/diversification regime, (2) an integration/GVC regime, both drawn from the Balance of Payments Constrained Model (BPCM) literature, and (3) a functional income distribution regime. The theoretical framework guides the selection of proxies used to characterize each regime, measured using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) scores. That allows us to identify country patterns in a structured typology. Finally, we focus on growth trajectories, estimating the causal relationship between each of the beforementioned regimes and per-capita growth, using IV estimations. The dataset consists of 37 countries, with sources from the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Input-Output Database (WIOD), Trade in Value Added (TiVA), and the Penn World Tables (PWT). On one hand, this article contributes to structuralist growth models that typically estimate demand and distribution regimes independently, thereby offering a unified narrative on regimes of economic growth in the context of GVCs. On the other hand, our typology depicts how growth dynamics vary distinctly by geographical regions and how globalization has retained and accelerated processes of uneven development globally. The results show that (1) developed countries are more inclusive in terms of distribution under GVCs, (2) structural change has been exclusive, and growth patterns have been following a specialized pattern, and (3) the growth pattern has been associated with higher integration, but less diversification. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains, Uneven Development, Income Distribution |
| JEL: | E12 F15 F43 O47 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2207&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Krister |
| Abstract: | Governance refers to how decisions and rules, as well as decision-making rules, are made and by whom. This brief on landscape governance focuses specifically on the decision-making processes that seek to create and enforce socially binding agreements regarding people’s interactions with one another and the landscape around them (Matson, Clark, and Andersson 2016). Landscape governance and its agreements shape how people treat each other and how they use local natural resources. Landscape governance agreements can address concrete questions, such as: How much forestland can a landowner clear each year? When are farmers allowed to burn crop residues? Where may pastoral groups take their cattle? and What is the punishment for breaking a given rule? The agreements, if achieved, may also define who has the right to participate in governance decision-making and who enforces the rules. Figure 1 below provides a simplified overview of the different parts of the landscape governance process, how it shapes local decisions and actions, and how it is influenced by decisions at higher levels of political authority. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, governance, land governance, landscape, conflict management, tenure security, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379965&r= |
| By: | Ludwig von Auer; Alena Shumskikh |
| Abstract: | Due to outdated weighting information, a Laspeyres-based Consumer Price Index (CPI) is prone to accumulating upward bias. Therefore, the present study introduces and examines simple and transparent revision approaches that retrospectively address the source of the bias. They provide a consistent long-run time series of the CPI and they require no additional information. Furthermore, a coherent decomposition of the bias into the contributions of individual product groups is developed. In a case study, the approaches are applied to a Laspeyres-based CPI. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions. The proposed revision approaches are not only adoptable to most national CPIs, but also to other price level measures such as the producer price index or the import and export price indices. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202201&r= |
| By: | Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Duke University); Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University); Costas Meghir (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University); Gabriel Ulyssea (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects economic outcomes in the presence of informality. We show that: (1) Trade openness unambiguously decreases informality in the tradable sector, but has ambiguous effects on aggregate informality. (2) The productivity gains from trade are understated when the informal sector is omitted. (3) Trade openness results in large welfare gains even when informality is repressed. (4) Repressing informality increases productivity, but at the expense of employment and welfare. (5) The effects of trade on wage inequality are reversed when the informal sector is incorporated in the analysis. (6) The informal sector works as an “unemployment," but not a “welfare buffer" in the event of negative economic shocks. |
| Date: | 2021–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/02&r= |
| By: | Burke, Andrew |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research was to determine the possibilities for and barriers to the provision of battery charging infrastructure for heavy-duty electric trucks at roadside rest areas in California. The initial sections of the report deal with the prospects for battery-electric long-haul trucks and the battery technology needed to make those electric trucks practical and the market for them to be successful. Simulations of trucks using present lithium battery technology indicated that for a range of 600 miles, the battery pack would need to store about1200 kWh. It is not practical to fit a battery of that size on the tractor of the truck. Another approach is to design a truck with a 300 mile range and plan to partially charge the battery once or twice during the day at rest areas. The truck could also be charged overnight at the rest areas. The total range per day could be 600 miles or more. The partial charges would put 65% of the capacity of the battery in at the 1C rate (a 60 minute charge). A 450-500 kW charging facility would be needed at the rest areas. The 300 mile range electric truck could operate much like the diesel truck with the driver taking 60 minute breaks every 200-225 miles to charge the battery. The cost analysis of the 300 mile truck indicates its TCO is less than that of the diesel truck. In California, there are Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) credits to reduce the costs to operate the charging facility. If applicable, the LCFS station credits ($/yr) can be as much as $65k/yr per charger up to the total cost of the facility in about five years. The LCFS electricity credit would permit the cost of electricity to be only $.12/kWh to charge the batteries, because the price includes the LCFS credit to the utility. Hence with LCFS credits, the cost of operating the charging facility could be low in the early years while the market for electric long-haul trucks is developing. Caltrans maintains 86 safety rest areas along highways in California with 53 along Interstate highways. If battery charging facilities were established at about 35 of these rest areas, they would be about 100 miles apart or a little closer. Caltrans could assist private contractors in establishing a network of charging facilities for electric trucks. The total initial cost could be about $50 million. The major barrier to Caltrans participating in the battery charging project is that current law prohibits commercial businesses at the rest areas which would not allow charging for the electricity dispensed. There has been consideration in both California and at the federal level to relax the non-commercial requirements at the rest areas for battery charging because the need for a battery charging network is well recognized. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Long haul truck, battery-electric, rest stops, battery charging |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3c07s2jh&r= |
| By: | Fatima Berahou (Université Hassan 1er, Faculté d'économie et de gestion); Abdeljebbar Abdouni (Université Hassan 1er, Faculté d'économie et de gestion) |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on the professional paths during the thirty-six months following graduation from the university in 2009. This promotion is the only one for which monthly longitudinal data are available and which allow dynamic monitoring of graduates since leaving university. It is therefore appropriate to analyze the professional path or a process of integration in the market labor. The study is intended to be a monograph of the different paths and successions of employment status, studies, unemployment, and inactivity, leading or not to job stabilization, using a recent classification method (optimal matching). This research also relied on a multinomial logit model to analyze the different factors contributing to belonging to a given professional trajectory. In this analysis, we construct six typical professional paths, namely, trajectories marked by immediate access to employment and professional stabilization, access to employment after periods of unemployment, obtaining a job after studies or inactivity, persistence of unemployment, persistence of inactivity and dominance of periods of further study. In addition, the analysis of the individual determinants of the belonging of university graduates' to the different typical paths leads to the importance of the role of the socio-demographic and academic characteristics of the graduate. The first result is the persistence of inequalities between men and women. Family characteristics also determine the paths of graduates, for example, the high level of education of parents promotes rapid access to employment. Finally, the diploma is a crucial factor of access to employment. Holders of BAC + 3 diplomas are the most exposed to the risk of unemployment. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine les trajectoires professionnelles des diplômés des universités de la promotion 2009. Cette promotion est la seule, jusqu'à présent, dont on dispose de données longitudinales mensuelles et qui permettent un suivi dynamique des diplômés sur une période de 36 mois après la sortie de l'université. Il y a lieu ainsi de parler de trajectoire professionnelle ou de processus d'insertion. L'étude se veut une monographie des différents parcours qui revêtent une succession d'états d'emploi, de chômage, d'études et d'inactivité, menant ou non à la stabilisation en emploi, basée sur une méthode récente de classification (appariement optimal). Cette recherche s'est appuyée également sur un modèle logit multinomial pour analyser les différents facteurs concourant à l'appartenance à une trajectoire professionnelle donnée. L'analyse débouche sur la construction de six trajectoires professionnelles types, à savoir, les trajectoires marquées par un accès immédiat à l'emploi et une stabilisation professionnelle, accès différé à l'emploi après des périodes de chômage, décrocher un emploi après des épisodes d'études ou d'inactivité, persistance du chômage, persistance d'inactivité et dominance des périodes de poursuite d'études. De plus, l'analyse des déterminants individuels de l'appartenance des diplômés des universités aux différentes trajectoires types débouche sur l'importance du rôle des caractéristiques socio-démographiques et académiques du diplômé. L'un des principaux résultats est la persistance d'inégalités entre hommes et femmes. Les caractéristiques familiales déterminent également les parcours des diplômés, entre autres, le niveau d'instruction élevé des parents qui favorise l'accès rapide et durable à l'emploi. Finalement, le diplôme constitue un facteur crucial d'accès à l'emploi et les titulaires des diplômes de niveau BAC+3 sont les plus exposés au risque de chômage. |
| Keywords: | Professional Paths,Labour Market,Employment,Unemployment,Human Capital |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03482482&r= |
| By: | Moran, Marcel E. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt67447864&r= |
| By: | Werner, Laura M. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Political Economy |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305618&r= |
| By: | Fullard, Joshua |
| Abstract: | Using new survey data of teachers in England we investigate the propensity for teachers to consent to data linkage, differences by observable characteristics and the effect of a randomly assigned information intervention. We find that consent rates are high (75 percent), possibly due to the relationship between participating schools and the research team, but observe differences by ethnicity, sex, and sector - teachers from a non-white background, male teachers and those who work in the independent sector are significantly less likely to consent. While we find that the provision of additional information does not increase consent to data linkage our heterogeneity analysis shows that the information treatment has a large, positive, effect on teachers who work in the independent sector – a subgroup of teachers who have a significantly lower rate of consent. |
| Date: | 2022–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Bertay, Ata (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Carreño Bustos, José (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Huizinga, Harry (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Uras, Burak (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Vellekoop, N. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:e3543110-e75d-4749-b4ee-2fbd67a124d9&r= |
| By: | Walzenbach, Sandra; Hinz, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This validation study on the crosswise model (CM) examines five survey experiments that were implemented in a general population survey. Our first crucial result is that in none of these experiments was the crosswise model able to verifiably reduce social desirability bias. In contrast to most previous CM applications, we use an experimental design that allows us to distinguish a reduction in social desirability bias from heuristic response behaviour, such as random ticking, leading to false positive or false negative answers. In addition, we provide insights on two potential explanatory mechanisms that have not yet received attention in empirical studies: primacy effects and panel conditioning. We do not find consistent primacy effects, nor does response quality improve due to learning when respondents have had experiences with crosswise models in past survey waves. We interpret our results as evidence that the crosswise model does not work in general population surveys and speculate that the question format causes mistrust in participants. |
| Keywords: | crosswise model,randomized response,social desirability bias,primacy effects,learning effects,panel conditioning,privacy concerns |
| JEL: | C83 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:249353&r= |
| By: | Aluma Dembo (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford); Shachar Kariv (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Matthew Polisson (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bristol); John Quah (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | The Allais critique of expected utility theory (EUT) has led to the development of theories of choice under risk that relax the independence axiom, but which adhere to the conventional axioms of ordering and monotonicity. Unlike many existing labora-tory experiments designed to test independence, our experiment systematically tests the entire set of axioms, providing much richer evidence against which EUT can be judged. Our within-subjects analysis is nonparametric, using only information about revealed preference relations in the individual-level data. For most subjects we ?nd that departures from independence are statistically signi?cant but minor relative to departures from ordering and/or monotonicity. |
| Date: | 2021–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/15&r= |
| By: | David Silvestri; Demetri Goutos; Anouk Lloren; Sheng Zhou; Guohai Zhou; Thalia Farietta; Sana Charania; Jeph Herrin; Alon Peltz; Zhenqiu Lin; Susannah Bernheim |
| Abstract: | Low-income older adults who are dually eligible (DE) for Medicare and Medicaid often experience worse outcomes following hospitalization. |
| Keywords: | dual eligibles, Medicare, Medicaid, hospital readmission rates, adults |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:b5f1b3f83cc24ad0b5c63ff9f2b99277&r= |
| By: | Ganguly, Arpan; Spinola, Danilo |
| Abstract: | This article aims to theoretically and empirically study the macroeconomic interactions between productive structure and income distribution in the context of the Global Value Chains (GVC). Firstly, we develop a theoretical framework, inspired by the Structuralist macroeconomic literature, establishing distinct regimes in the scenario of globalized production chains. The regimes are defined in terms of (1) a structure/diversification regime, (2) an integration/GVC regime, both drawn from the Balance of Payments Constrained Model (BPCM) literature, and (3) a functional income distribution regime. The theoretical framework guides the selection of proxies used to characterize each regime, measured using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) scores. That allows us to identify country patterns in a structured typology. Finally, we focus on growth trajectories, estimating the causal relationship between each of the beforementioned regimes and per-capita growth, using IV estimations. The dataset consists of 37 countries, with sources from the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Input-Output Database (WIOD), Trade in Value Added (TiVA), and the Penn World Tables (PWT). On one hand, this article contributes to structuralist growth models that typically estimate demand and distribution regimes independently, thereby offering a unified narrative on regimes of economic growth in the context of GVCs. On the other hand, our typology depicts how growth dynamics vary distinctly by geographical regions and how globalization has retained and accelerated processes of uneven development globally. The results show that (1) developed countries are more inclusive in terms of distribution under GVCs, (2) structural change has been exclusive, and growth patterns have been following a specialized pattern, and (3) the growth pattern has been associated with higher integration, but less diversification. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains; Uneven Development; Income Distribution |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:akf:cafewp:17&r= |
| By: | Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Doss, Cheryl R.; Flintan, Fiona; Knight, Rachael; Larson, Anne M.; Monterroso, Iliana |
| Abstract: | Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on women’s land rights within collective tenure. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We begin by discussing what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail. We then present the conceptual framework for what factors would affect women’s tenure security, building on a framework for land tenure security that focuses on individual and household tenure. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of lands as well as commonalities across types of collective lands. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, two dimensions must be in place. First, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security. Second, the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group. |
| Keywords: | WORLD; gender; women; land rights; tenure security; common property; forests; rangelands; collective ownership; land ownership |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2074&r= |
| By: | Brigitte Roth Tran |
| Abstract: | I apply a novel machine-learning based “weather index” method to daily store- level sales data for a national apparel and sporting goods brand to examine short-run responses to weather and long-run adaptation to climate. I find that even when considering potentially offsetting shifts of sales between outdoor and indoor stores, to the firm's website, or over time, weather has significant persistent effects on sales. This suggests that weather may increase sales volatility as more severe weather shocks be- come more frequent under climate change. Consistent with adaptation to climate, I find that sensitivity of sales to weather decreases with historical experience for precipitation, snow, and cold weather events, but-surprisingly-not for extreme heat events. This suggests that adaptation may moderate some but not all of the adverse impacts of climate change on sales. Retailers can respond by adjusting their staffing, inventory, promotion events, compensation, and financial reporting. |
| Keywords: | adaptation; climate change; weather; machine learning; retail; sales |
| JEL: | Q54 L81 D12 |
| Date: | 2022–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:93659&r= |
| By: | Gara Afonso; Lorie Logan; Antoine Martin; Will Riordan; Patricia Zobel |
| Abstract: | In July 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a new tool for monetary policy implementation: a domestic standing repurchase agreement facility. In the last post of this series, we explain what this new tool is and how it will support the effective implementation of monetary policy in the floor system through which the Fed implements policy. |
| Keywords: | standing repo facility; monetary policy implementation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93623&r= |
| By: | Laurens Cherchye (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Pierre-André Chiappori (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia University); Bram De Rock (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Université libre de Bruxelles); Charlotte Ringdal (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Frederic Vermeulen (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Leuven) |
| Abstract: | To understand the household decision-making process regarding food expenditures for children in poor households in Nairobi, we conduct an experiment with 424 married couples. In the experiment, the spouses (individually and jointly) allocated money between themselves and nutritious meals for one of their children. First, we ?nd strong empirical support for individual rationality and cooperative behavior. Second, our results suggest that women do not have stronger preferences for children’s meals than men. Third, the spouses’ respective bargaining positions derived from consumption patterns strongly correlate with more traditional indicators. Finally, we document signi?cant heterogeneity both between individuals and intra-household decision processes. |
| Date: | 2021–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/32&r= |
| By: | Bogdan Radu (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This article aims at presenting the strengths and weaknesses of the Romanian legislation towards non-fungible tokens (NFTs). We start by recognizing that there is no active legislation that deals with cryptocurrency, NFTs or any other digital asset using a digital ledger of transactions (DLT). The starting point is the analysis of the legal characteristics of an NFT through the classical qualification and distinction made for goods by the Romanian Civil code. Further, we raise some issues regarding establishing a clear tax regime and the correlation between NFTs and intellectual property rights, and finally conclude that when it comes to qualifying crypto-assets, we need to adopt a ‘substance over form' approach, in order to avoid regulatory unpredictability. |
| Keywords: | Non-fungible tokens, NFT, cryptocurrency, DLT, blockchain |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0102&r= |
| By: | David L. Dickinson |
| Abstract: | Previous research has identified importance differences in key life outcomes between political conservatives and liberals (e.g., happiness, academic success, involvement in crime). Potential mechanisms suggested in the literature have included self-control or personality traits that may systematically differ by political ideology. We preregistered plans to test for “dark” personality trait and self-control differences in political conservatives and liberals, with aims to replicate previously reported findings. We also examined differences in cognitive reflection style and emotion regulation. Three survey waves were obtained from an initial pool of U.S. participants (n=650 initial respondents, n=498 in Wave 2, n=402 in Wave 3) split roughly equally across political conservatives and liberals. We report a consistent null effect of political ideology on selfcontrol, and dark personality traits, in contrast to previous studies. Our data show higher cognitive reflection tendencies among those who are more politically liberal, consistent with past research. However, we report a previously unidentified difference emotional regulation styles, with conservatives reporting a healthier approach to emotion regulation via cognitive reappraisal strategies. Finally, a common mood elicitation in each of the three studies consistently reveals significantly more negative mood states among political liberals. Together, these findings suggest that mood and mood regulation may be a more important mechanism towards understanding preferred outcome differences in conservatives compared to liberals. Key Words: self-control, political ideology, individual differences, mood regulation, dark personality |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:22-03&r= |
| By: | Noskova, Victoriia |
| Abstract: | In December 2020, new regulation of digital markets was proposed by European Commission. It specifically addresses main concerns raised by business behavior of operators of core services in their gatekeeping positions. However, voice assistants (or digital personal assistants, DPAs, e.g. Apple's Siri, Amazon's Alexa, Google Assistant) are not included into this regulation. In contrast, the Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee of European Parliament suggested to include them. This paper argues that (i) voice assistants as gatekeepers for consumption should be listed among core services, (ii) some Digital Market Act's obligations need to be adopted to fit specifics of voice assistants, (iii) two relevant dimensions of power should be included into rebuttable presumptions used for competition policy and regulation: market power on voice assistants' market and ecosystem of related markets (cross-market integration criterion), (iv) growth of new gatekeepers should be prevented, among other means by stricter merger control. |
| Keywords: | Voice Assistants,Gatekeepers,Digital Market Act,Digital Personal Assistants,Virtual Assistants,Competition in Digital Markets,Competitive Bottleneck,Information Intermediaries,Platform Competition,Smart Speakers,Siri,Alexa,Google Assistant |
| JEL: | K21 L1 L4 L86 O33 D4 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:161&r= |
| By: | Sonne, Lina (O.P. Jindal Global University, India and UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a snapshot of the way digitisation through mobile phones plays out among women in India. It is based on a review of literature, semi-structured interviews with 15 key stakeholders and 60 interviews with low-income women end-users across urban and rural locations in six states. The paper offers a snapshot of what women's access to, and use of phones looks like today in India. The interviews point to increased access to mobile phones with advanced features, with even women reporting to use basic phones being able to use applications such as WhatsApp. Our findings suggest that nearly all women have smartphones, have their own phone (rather than shared) and have a new phone (as opposed to a hand-me-down). Nevertheless, women remain constrained in the location and the type of use. Women primarily use the phone at home to avoid raising suspicion or gossip. A majority of respondents reported calling and receiving calls on a daily or weekly basis. When it came to messaging services, WhatsApp had overtaken conventional SMS. Women additionally use the phone for entertainment, for seeking out information, and for mobile payments. Very few women said their phones were monitored. Some respondents noted that they have serious concerns about the risk of harassment online, primarily through random calls. While women are able to operate their phones for every-day purposes, they struggle with adequate digital literacy when it comes to advanced features. There was little difference in the way women use their phones across rural-urban locations and across the six states. |
| Keywords: | Gender and technology, Inclusive digitisation, Mobile phone access, Digital economy, Digital society |
| JEL: | O33 O35 O17 |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021033&r= |
| By: | Laura Urgelles (University of Paderborn); Bernd Frick (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of the participation in different leisure activities on university and college students’ average grade. In a first step, we calculate an OLS regression and find that for male students being a member in a fraternity is negatively related with the average grade. Contrarily, being an active member of a political or religious group is posi-tively correlated with the average grade. In a second step we analyze the influence of the two leisure activities most popular among students (music & arts and sports) in more detail. Using an instrumental variables approach, this study finds that the participation in music and arts positively affects female students’ grades. The participation in sports is negatively related with the average grade, although these results are not significant for the female and male subsamples. This paper contributes to the existing knowledge on the subject by providing empirical evidence for the involvement of students in higher education in a range of leisure activities (e.g. music & arts, sports, fraternities, involvement in the university administration, and activity in political and religious groups). Based on these findings, causal inferences about music and arts can be made as well as inferences about participation in sports. As a result, students may rethink their decisions on leisure time allocations. Higher education institutions might also be able to use this information to adapt their funding decisions in order to support academically beneficial activities such as orchestras, theater groups, or musical bands. |
| Keywords: | leisure activities, higher education, academic performance, instrumental variable regression |
| JEL: | Z20 Z29 I23 J22 J24 L83 C21 C26 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:88&r= |
| By: | Hugo Inzirillo; Benjamin Mat |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to assess the performances of dimensionality reduction techniques to establish a link between cryptocurrencies. We have focused our analysis on the two most traded cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum. To perform our analysis, we took log returns and added some covariates to build our data set. We first introduced the pearson correlation coefficient in order to have a preliminary assessment of the link between Bitcoin and Ethereum. We then reduced the dimension of our data set using canonical correlation analysis and principal component analysis. After performing an analysis of the links between Bitcoin and Ethereum with both statistical techniques, we measured their performance on forecasting Ethereum returns with Bitcoin s features. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15036&r= |
| By: | Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rebekah Stroud (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in where people work, eat and socialise. We use novel data on the food and non-alcoholic drink purchases from stores, takeaways, restaurants and other outlets to quantify the impact of the pandemic on the diets of a large, representative panel of British households. We find that a substantial and persistent increase in calories consumed at home more than offset reductions in calories eaten out. By May 2020 (towards the end of the UK’s first national lockdown), total calories were, on average, 15% above normal levels, and they remained higher than normal for the rest of 2020. All socioeconomic groups increased their calorie purchases, with the largest rises for the highest SES households and the smallest for retired ones. Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated changes in people’s lifestyles have exacerbated the challenges of improving population diet and reducing obesity levels. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/18&r= |
| By: | Philippe de Donder (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Humberto Llavador (UPF - Universitat Pompeu Fabra [Barcelona]); Stefan Penczynski (UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]); John Roemer (Yale University [New Haven]); Roberto Vélez (Centro Estudios Espinosa Yglesias) |
| Abstract: | Whether or not to vaccinate one's child is a decision that a parent may approach in several ways. The vaccination game, in which parents must choose whether to vaccinate a child against a disease, is one with positive externalities (herd immunity). In some societies, not vaccinating is an increasingly prevalent behavior, due to deleterious side effects that parents believe may accompany vaccination. The standard game-theoretic approach assumes that parents make decisions according to the Nash behavioral protocol, which is individualistic and non-cooperative. Because of the positive externality that each child's vaccination generates for others, the Nash equilibrium suffers from a free-rider problem. However, in more solidaristic societies, parents may behave cooperatively –they may optimize according to the Kantian protocol, in which the equilibrium is efficient. We test, on a sample of six countries, whether childhood vaccination behavior conforms better to the individualistic or cooperative protocol. In order to do so, we conduct surveys of parents in these countries, to ascertain the distribution of beliefs concerning the subjective probability and severity of deleterious side effects of vaccination. We show that in all the countries of our sample the Kant model dominates the Nash model. We conjecture that, due to the free-rider problem inherent in the Nash equilibrium, a social norm has evolved, quite generally, inducing parents to vaccinate with higher probability than they would in the noncooperative solution. Kantian equilibrium offers one precise version of such a social norm. |
| Keywords: | Kantian equilibrium,Nash equilibrium,Vaccination,Social norm |
| Date: | 2021–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03504644&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Artem Kochnev (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | While the outcome of the current Ukraine crisis is highly uncertain, it seems likely that the West will impose sanctions on Russia. Applying a stylized VARX model on Russian quarterly time series, we find no statistically significant impact of sanctions on either Russian GDP or the FX rate. However, we find that Russia is extremely vulnerable to a reduction in the price or volume of its energy exports. Aside from energy, the most painful sanctions would include cutting Russian banks off from the SWIFT system and dollar markets, and bans on exports of high-tech goods to Russia. While Russia has become increasingly insulated from the dollar-based global system, and has built up substantial buffers which it can deploy in the case of sanctions, under an adverse scenario the state would have to make large-scale interventions to maintain economic and financial stability. The Ukrainian economy will also suffer, and will require major Western support to maintain macro-financial stability. Over the medium run, the current crisis will further isolate Russia economically, leading to a continuation of its very mediocre growth performance since 2014. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, EU, US,sanctions, energy, CEE |
| JEL: | F51 E31 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:55&r= |
| By: | Handan Vicdan (emlyon business school); Mar Pérezts; A. Fuat Firat |
| Abstract: | Platform organizations bring renewed attention to power disparities and risks in the rise of surveillance capitalism. However, such critical accounts provide a partial understanding of the complexity of surveillance phenomena in such shifting socio-technical and digital environments. Findings from a netnographic investigation of a healthcare platform organization, PatientsLikeMe, unravel how platforms become the locus where multi-level flows of surveillance converge, thereby constituting what we identify as a surveillant assemblage. We develop a comprehensive approach for understanding how platforms constitute a dynamic crossroads of micro, meso and macro surveillance phenomena within and beyond the online communities they create. Our study highlights this surveillant assemblage's emerging practices and potentially empowering outcomes that enable multi-stakeholder involvement in big data and knowledge generation in healthcare. Broader implications of multi-level surveillance in and through platforms are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Multi-level surveillance,surveillant assemblage,Platform organization,netnography,healthcare |
| Date: | 2021–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03484686&r= |
| By: | Rowena Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Polly Simpson (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the effect of house prices on whether or not young adults actively save in a private pension. We use job-level data from a survey of employers, matched to average house prices at the level of an individuals’ location of employment, exploiting geographical variation in local house price movements in England over the decade 1997 to 2007. We find that after controlling for individual and job characteristics there is no statistically significant effect, on average, across all employees. There is a negative effect for public-sector workers and those in the middle of the earnings distribution. However, the effects are small – for example, among public-sector workers, if house prices are £100,000 higher, then this is associated with a 3 percentage point lower probability of contributing to a pension. The effect is larger among employees in the NHS, education and non-uniformed services, who face a higher employee contribution than employees in the civil service. |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/38&r= |
| By: | Tilman H. Drerup; Matthias Wibral; Christian Zimpelmann |
| Abstract: | Many models of investor behavior predict that investors prefer assets that they believe to have positively skewed return distributions. We provide a direct test of this prediction in a representative sample of the Dutch population. Using individuallevel data on return expectations for a broad index and a single stock, we show that portfolio allocations increase with the skewness of respondents’ return expectations for the respective asset, controlling for other moments of a respondent’s expectations and sociodemographic information. We also show that while an individual’s expectations are correlated across assets, sociodemographics only capture very little of the substantial heterogeneity in expectations. |
| Keywords: | Skewness, Stock Market Expectations, Portfolio Choice, Behavioral Finance |
| JEL: | D14 D84 G02 G11 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2022_333&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Rwanda’s medium-term outlook is positive, supported by the authorities’ large policy package to respond to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic and their continued commitment to the PCI in a challenging environment. Economic recovery is underway with easing of restrictions supported by faster vaccination rates since July. GDP growth is projected at 10.2 percent in 2021 and inflation remained subdued. But Rwanda’s remarkable economic and social progress over the last two decades faces a significant setback, with poverty, unemployment, and gender inequalities on the rise. These pandemic scars, if not addressed, risk reversing hard-won economic and social gains. With a large share of the population still unvaccinated and the emergence of new variants, risks to the outlook remain elevated. |
| Date: | 2022–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/007&r= |
| By: | Chan Mono Oum (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | The new economics of labour migration (NELM) suggests that migration substitutes for inaccessible credit markets. However, in a paradigm shift towards profit orientation, microfinance organizations in developing countries offer greater access to credit to potential migrants. That casts doubt on the prior understanding of the link between access to microcredit and migration. Exploiting survey data from 422 households in the northern part of Cambodia, this study examines the relationship between microcredit borrowing and migration decisions through the NELM theory in the South-South Migration (SSM) perspective. We employ the Endogenous Switching Probit model (ESP) to control for selection bias in borrowing decisions and the structural differences between borrowing and non-borrowing decisions that influence migration decisions. After instrumenting, the findings suggest that households with access to credit are more likely to have migrated family members than their non-borrowing counterparts, refuting the notion of migration as a substitute for credit. Household with borrowings from financial institution increase the likelihood of migrating by 5.6 percent while households with informal borrowing have a propensity to migrate about 3.2 percent. Our results have a number of policy implications, including guiding policymakers in rethinking the role of microcredit provision and redesigning microfinance programmes to maximise the return on labour migration. |
| Keywords: | formal credit; informal credit; microcredit; migration decisions; Cambodia |
| JEL: | F22 G51 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:22/01&r= |
| By: | Fabio Ashtar Telarico (CSEES, FDV) |
| Abstract: | Tax analysis and forecasting of revenues are of paramount importance to ensure fiscal policy's viability and sustainability. However, the measures taken to contain the spread of the recent pandemic pose an unprecedented challenge to established models and approaches. This paper proposes a model to forecast tax revenues in Bulgaria for the fiscal years 2020-2022 built in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's recommendations on a dataset covering the period between 1995 and 2019. The study further discusses the actual trustworthiness of official Bulgarian forecasts, contrasting those figures with the model previously estimated. This study's quantitative results both confirm the pandemic's assumed negative impact on tax revenues and prove that econometrics can be tweaked to produce consistent revenue forecasts even in the relatively-unexplored case of Bulgaria offering new insights to policymakers and advocates. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15431&r= |
| By: | Dilger, Alexander |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 führt seit zwei Jahren weltweit zu schweren Erkrankungen, Todesfällen und drastischen Gegenmaßnahmen. Mit sehr schnell entwickelten Impfstoffen haben sich viele Menschen in Deutschland impfen lassen. Zur weiteren Erhöhung der Impfquote wird über eine zuvor ausgeschlossene Impfpflicht intensiv diskutiert. Eine qualitative Kosten-NutzenAnalyse spricht dagegen, da zumindest subjektiv die Kosten für einige Ungeimpfte erheblich sind und auch nach intersubjektiven Kriterien der Nettonutzen einer Impfung nicht für jeden eindeutig positiv ist. Die Wohlfahrt ist höher bei individuellen Wahlmöglichkeiten, z. B. nach einem Beratungsgespräch, durch eine Prämie fürs freiwillige Impfen oder umgekehrt mit einer Geldzahlung Ungeimpfter zum Ausgleich der Kosten anderer aus der unterlassenen Impfung. |
| JEL: | D61 D62 D81 I12 I18 I31 K32 K42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:122021&r= |
| By: | Akihiko Takahashi (The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan); Yoshifumi Tsuchida (Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan (Current affiliation: Asset Management One Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan)); Toshihiro Yamada (Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new approximation scheme for solving high-dimensional semilinear partial differential equations (PDEs) and backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). First, we decompose a target semilinear PDE (BSDE) into two parts, linear PDE part and nonlinear PDE part. Then, we employ a Deep BSDE solver with a new control variate method to solve those PDEs, where approximations based on an asymptotic expansion technique are effectively applied to the linear part and also used as control variates for the nonlinear part. Moreover, our theoretical result indicates that errors of the proposed method become much smaller than those of the original Deep BSDE solver. Finally, we show numerical experiments to demonstrate the validity of our method, which is consistent with the theoretical result in this paper. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf532&r= |
| By: | Prehn, Sören |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305608&r= |
| By: | Spiritus, Kevin (Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Lehmann, Etienne (Université Panthéon-Assas Paris II, CRED); Renes, Sander (Dept. of Business Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Zoutman, Floris T. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the optimal nonlinear income tax schedule when taxpayers earn multiple in comes and differ along many unobserved dimensions. We derive the necessary conditions for the government’s optimum using both a tax perturbation and a mechanism design approach, and show that both methods produce the same results. Our main contribution is to propose a numerical method to find the optimal tax schedule. Applied to the optimal taxation of couples, we find that optimal isotax curves are very close to linear and parallel. The slope of isotax curves is strongly affected by the relative tax-elasticity of male and female income. We make several additional contributions, including a test for Pareto efficiency and a condition on primitives that ensures the government’s necessary conditions are sufficient and the solution to the problem is unique. |
| Keywords: | Nonlinear Optimal Taxation; Multidimensional Screening; Household Income Taxation |
| JEL: | D82 H21 H23 H24 |
| Date: | 2022–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2022_003&r= |
| By: | M. Ali Khan; Nobusumi Sagara |
| Abstract: | We present the equivalence between the fuzzy core and the core under minimal assumptions. Due to the exact version of the Lyapunov convexity theorem in Banach spaces, we clarify that the additional structure of commodity spaces and preferences is unnecessary whenever the measure space of agents is "saturated". As a spin-off of the above equivalence, we obtain the coincidence of the core, the fuzzy core, and the Schmeidler's restricted core under minimal assumptions. The coincidence of the fuzzy core and the restricted core has not been articulated anywhere. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15539&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Evens Salies |
| Abstract: | This article extends the unilateral accident standard model to allow for Cournot competition. Assuming risk-neutrality for the regulator and injurers, it analyzes three liability regimes: strict liability, negligence rule, and strict liability with administrative authorization or permits systems. Under competition the equivalence between negligence rule and strict liability no longer holds, and negligence insures a better level of social care. However, enforcing both a permit system and strict liability restores equivalence between liability regimes. However, whatever the current regime, competition leads to lower the global safety level of industry. |
| Keywords: | Tort Law,Strict Liability,Negligence rule,Imperfect Competition,Oligopoly,Cournot Competition. JEL: D43,L13,L52,K13 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502604&r= |
| By: | Nomaler, Önder (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Spinola, Danilo (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Birmingham City University, and University of Johannesburg); Verspagen, Bart (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This article models the process of structural transformation and catching-up in a demand-led Southern economy constrained by its balance of payments. Starting from the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model, we model a dual-sector small open economy divided between traditional and modern sectors that interacts with a technologically advanced Northern economy. We propose two (alternative) autonomous elements that define the growth rate of this demand-led economy: government spending and exports. Autonomous government spending plays a central role in stimulating demand, and thus is a source of growth of the modern sector. Productivity adjusts to the growth rate of output, given by the growth rate of autonomous expenditure. Drawing from the Structuralist literature, the technologically laggard Southern economy catches up by absorbing technology from the Northern economy, potentially closing the technology gap. The gap affects the income elasticity of exports, bringing a supply-side mediation to the growth rates in line with the Balance of Payments Constrained Model. We observe that a demand-led government policy plays a central role in structural change, pushing the modern sector to a take-off. Also, the economy is stable in terms of capacity utilisation and modern sector employment. |
| Keywords: | Industrialisation, Catching-up, Balance of Payments, Sraffian Supermultiplier |
| JEL: | O41 E12 E61 |
| Date: | 2021–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021038&r= |
| By: | Stefán Thórarinsson |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to determine what drives inflation variation in Iceland and examine the extent to which local currency pricing is present. To that end we define and estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregression model. For identification we employ the method developed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015), defining priors on the impact matrix and on the long run behaviour of the model. We find that supply shocks and exchange rate shocks are the largest contributors in short run dynamics of inflation while foreign shocks dominate the medium and long run horizons. Our results strongly suggest that local currency pricing is largely absent. A test of robustness suggests that our results w.r.t. foreign influences on domestic inflation hold. Whether foreign demand or foreign inflation plays a larger role in determining long horizon variation in inflation seems to vary considerably over the period considered. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E31 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp88&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); Victoria Jenneson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Joseph James (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Anna Taylor (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Sugary drinks taxes have been implemented around the world and governments around the world are considering extending these taxes to address concerns about rising obesity. We demonstrate the range of impacts a tax on added sugar and salt could have on purchases of food at home and out of the home in the UK. The impact will depend on how ?rms and consumers respond. There is considerable uncertainty about each of these. Therefore we take a very robust approach and consider scenarios that cover the full range of realistic possible levels of response – from very responsive ?rms and consumers to non-responsive ?rms and consumers, and everything in between. Fully responsive ?rms would reformulate products to reduce sugar and salt (we assume the maximum reformulation would be to targets set by Public Health England, PHE). Fully responsive consumers would substitute away from products in proportion to the increase in price, and not increase purchases of added sugar or salt on other products. In the remainder of this paper we describe the data in more detail (section 2), show the impact of taxes on prices (section 3), the impact on sugar and salt purchases (section 4), including by age, and show the implied health bene?ts from the Department of Health and Social Care calorie model and analysis by researchers at the The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) (section 5). Appendices show details on PHE reformulation targets (Appendix A), the results using the larger sample of data on home purchases (Appendix B), and we describe the methods and calculations used (Appendix C) . |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/21&r= |
| By: | Ionut-Alexandru Horhogea (University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Previously, the laborers believing in an automatized business could have been considered dreamy, looking to skip daily tasks. Nowadays, the spectrum upon automatization and platforms facilitating e-commerce has changed and highlights the jump from a brick and mortar store to a virtual one. More and more established brands are replacing classic locations with logistic warehouses to deliver products more efficiently. Well-known companies, e.g., Zara, Amazon, eBay that have been recently founded, embraced this change and took the best out of it. However, our attention will fall on smaller businesses and the difficulties they face during such a transition and analyses from various standpoints the goods and the bads of each. Should the jump from a physical to an online facility be considered or left untouched? What is the best model to be followed in order to level a business? Let us find in the following. |
| Keywords: | digital business, physical store, evolution, management, marketing, logistics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0098&r= |
| By: | Rowena Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We examine the extent to which owner-occupiers in their 50s and 60s change their private pension saving when they complete repayment of the mortgage on their primary residence. Using panel data from a household survey, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we identify those who completed repayment of their mortgage as anticipated two years prior. Despite mortgage expenditures falling by over £200 per person on average, there is little resulting change in average pension saving. This is because only a small minority of individuals react – the probability of an individual increasing their monthly pension saving by more than £150 increases by only 5 percentage points on completing repayment of a mortgage. This suggests that if policymakers wish to influence behaviour in order to increase private pension saving, interventions targeted at those completing their mortgage repayment could be a tractable approach. Such individuals would be able to increase pension saving while maintaining spending at recent levels. |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/39&r= |
| By: | Casilda Lasso de la Vega; Oscar Volij; Federico Weinschelbaum |
| Abstract: | We provide a necessary and sufficient condition on the equilibrium of a Walrasian economy for an increase in police expenditure to induce an increase in crime. This perverse effect is consistent with any appropriation technology and could arise even if the level of police protection is the socially optimal one. |
| Keywords: | Theft, Crime, Police, General Equilibrium, Laffer. |
| JEL: | D72 D74 H23 K42 |
| Date: | 2022–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:019943&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a price floor for alcohol introduced in Scotland in 2018, using a difference-in-differences strategy with England as a control group. We show that the policy led to the largest reductions in alcohol units purchased among the heaviest drinkers – the group who, at the margin, are likely to create the largest externalities from drinking. The price floor is well targeted at heavy drinkers because they buy a much greater fraction of their units from cheap products and switched away from these products strongly, with only limited substitution towards more expensive products. We show that if the marginal external cost of drinking is at least moderately higher for heavy than lighter drinkers, then a price floor outperforms an ethanol tax. However, more flexible tax systems can achieve similar reductions in externalities to the price floor, but avoid the large transfers from public funds to the alcohol industry that arise under the floor. |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/40&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Berman (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Mathieu Couttenier (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, GATE - Health System Analysis Laboratory - Université de Lyon); Nathalie Monnet (Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement - Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies [Geneva, Switzerland]); Rohit Ticku (Economics Department [European University Institute] - EUI - European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the link between the policy response to the SARS CoV-2 pandemic and conflicts worldwide. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of SARS CoV-2 to study how demonstrations and violent events vary following shutdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify the dynamic effects in an event study framework. Our results show that imposing a nation-wide shutdown is associated with a reduction in the number of demonstrations, which suggests that public demonstrations are hampered by the rising cost of participation. However, the reduction is short-lived, as the number of demonstrations are back to their pre-restriction levels in two months. In contrast, we observe that the purported increase in mobilization or coordination costs, following the imposition of restrictions, is not followed by a drop of violent events that involve organized armed groups. Instead, we find that the number of events, on average, increases slightly following the implementation of the restriction policies. The rise in violent events is most prominent in poorer countries, with higher levels of polarization, and in authoritarian countries. We discuss the potential channels underlying this heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | SARS CoV-2,Conflict,Violence,Mobility |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03509846&r= |
| By: | Martin Indergand; Eric Jondeau; Andreas Fuster |
| Abstract: | We propose a methodology for measuring the market-implied capital of banks by subtracting from the market value of equity (market capitalization) a credit spread-based correction for the value of shareholders' default option. We show that without such a correction, the estimated impact of a severe market downturn is systematically distorted, underestimating the risk of banks with low market capitalization. We argue that this adjusted measure of capital is the relevant market-implied capital measure for policymakers. We propose an econometric model for the combined simulation of equity prices and CDS spreads, which allows us to introduce this correction in the SRISK framework for measuring systemic risk. |
| Keywords: | Banking, capital, stress test, systemic risk, multifactor model |
| JEL: | C32 G01 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2022-02&r= |
| By: | Grubb, Michael; Drummond, Paul; Poncia, Alexandra; McDowall, Will; Popp, David; Samadi, Sascha; Penasco, Cristina; Gillingham, Kenneth T.; Smulders, Sjak; Glachant, Matthieu; Hassall, Gavin; Mizuno, Emi; Rubin, Edward S.; Dechezleprêtre, Antoine; Pavan, Giulia |
| Abstract: | We conduct a systematic and interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions. Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (a) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers-general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (b) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (c) Overall innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modelling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research. |
| Keywords: | comitigation costs; directed technological change; endogenous technological change; energy innovation; induced innovation; innovation policy; learning by doing |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113439&r= |
| By: | Gerard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article is an attempt to reassess the relationships between the strict liability regime and the negligence rule under radical uncertainty (ambiguity theory). In an accident model two representative agents (potential injurer and victim) form divergent beliefs about the probability distribution of an accident and the potential damage scale. It issues on the following results: 1) When the injurer's wealth cover the damage cost, then the socially first-best level of care is established by the injurer under strict liability only. When, the injurer's wealth is insufficient, this level is not reach (capped strict liability regime for instance). 2) Under negligence, the authorities (Regulator or Court) can choose as first best level of care either the level that favors the injurer's interests or the victim ones of. No rational rule can justify a choice rather than the other. 3) The efficiency of both regimes cannot be compared because they obey to different logics. |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502616&r= |
| By: | Barrow, Edmund |
| Abstract: | By 2050, 95 percent of Earth’s land will be degraded. Already, 24 billion tons of soil have been eroded by unsustainable agriculture (Larbodière et al. 2020). In 2020 alone, over 4 million hectares of primary forest were cleared, up 12 percent from 2019. Global trade, consumption, population growth, and urbanization are driving transformations that, in part, drive the destruction of nature. The 2020 Global Living Planet Index shows a 68 percent drop in populations of monitored species from 1970 to 2016. Such trends are a measure of declining ecosystem health (WWF 2020), and the World Economic Forum ranks biodiversity loss as a top-five risk to the global economy. Clearly, our environment must be high on political and policy agendas – yet too often environmental governance is weak and policy implementation is neglected. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, environmental management, governance, biodiversity, landscape conservation, climate-smart agriculture, tenure, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379994&r= |
| By: | Brogaard, N.; Abdul-Ghani, R.; Bayle, A.; Henderson, N.; Bréant, A,; Steuten, L. |
| Abstract: | A paradigm shift is occurring in cancer care with the introduction of tumour-agnostic therapies, for which the indication is defined by the molecular signature of the tumour rather than by its location. Several agents have already gained regulatory approval, including pembrolizumab for solid tumours with high microsatellite instability (MSI-H) or high tumour mutational burden (TMB-H), and larotrectinib and entrectinib for neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase (NTRK) fusion-positive solid tumours, and many other emerging molecules are set to enter the market over the next decade. For healthcare systems, one of the biggest challenges lies in the clinical and economic assessment of these therapies, and subsequent decisions regarding reimbursement. As head-to-head data and comparative analyses remain a challenge for tumour-agnostic therapies, clinical evidence provided at the time of regulatory or reimbursement dossier submissions may include indirect comparisons to real-world data (RWD), or intrapatient analyses. In addition, testing costs and value need to be considered, given the need for broad genomic profiling platforms to facilitate patient identification and matching to novel treatments. The evaluation framework of each country's health technology assessment (HTA) agency determines how these challenges are currently addressed. This report provides an analysis of HTA agency assessments and reimbursement decisions for entrectinib and larotrectinib across England, Germany, France, Canada, Denmark, Sweden and Scotland. Overall, 13 reimbursement decisions (six for entrectinib, seven for larotrectinib) with publicly accessible documents were analysed to understand the assessment outcomes and what evidence may have influenced them. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Health Technology Assessment |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:conrep:002401&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Evens Salies |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the basic unilateral accident model to allow for Cournot competition. Two firms compete with production input and prevention as strategic variables under asymmetric capacity constraints. We find that liability regimes exert a crucial influence on the equilibrium price and outputs. Strict liability leads to higher output and higher risk compared to negligence. We also study the conditions under which both regimes converge. |
| Keywords: | Tort Law,Strict Liability,Negligence Rule,Imperfect Competition,Oligopoly,Cournot Competition JEL Classification: D43,L13,L52,K13 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502605&r= |
| By: | Laura Urgelles (University of Paderborn); Bernd Frick (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the present study was to find out whether salary expectations vary with the different types of athletic involvements. Previous studies based on high school pupil data show that the involvement in sports is beneficial for the grade but only to a certain degree. That is, during the high season of sport, athletes’ grades deteriorate (Schultz, 2017). At the college and university level, most studies find a positive relation between athletic participation and grades (Fricke et al., 2018). Labor economists have identified numerous positive effects of athletic participation, including a higher salary for athletes (Kuhn & Weinberger, 2005; Lechner & Downward, 2017) and former athletes (Ewing, 2007). We conducted an own survey among German university and college students during the summer semester 2016 and obtained a data set with information on sports participation for 4,592 students. Based on this information we group our participants in three athlete types: inactive students (IS), recreational athletes (RA) and competitive athletes (CA). We analyze three equations in a system of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) with a three-stage least square estimator. Our (alternative) dependent variables are the current average grade, the number of semesters needed to acquire the degree, and the salary expectations. We find that CA expect a significantly higher salary than their inactive peers. CA tend to study longer until they achieve their degrees. We also find that the higher the weekly hours spent on sports, the lower is the student’s grade. The higher the amount of hours spent studying however, the better the grade and the faster the student achieves the degree. |
| Keywords: | higher education, academic performance, athlete types, sports, seemingly unrelated regressions |
| JEL: | C83 I23 J22 J24 L83 Z20 Z29 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:89&r= |
| By: | Kaur, Amandeep (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of covd-19 pandemic, the paper analyses the budgetary allocations pertaining to children, for the state of Odisha. The State of Odisha is consistently using Public Financial Management (PFM) tools for human development to ensure budget transparency and accountability. Our findings suggest that Odisha spent around 5 per cent of GSDP on child budgeting during 2019-20 to 2021-22. The fiscal marksmanship analysis and the PEFA scores of sector-specific child budgeting reveal deviation between budget estimates and actuals in a few sectors. Higher budgetary allocation for children per se does not translate into higher actual spending. Strengthening budget accountability is therefore crucial for better human development outcomes for children. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/368&r= |
| By: | Michael Bates (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Michael Dinerstein; Andrew Johnston; Isaac Sorkin Sorkin |
| Abstract: | We study whether reallocating existing teachers across schools within a district can increase student achievement, and what policies would help achieve these gains. Using a model of multi-dimensional value-added, we find meaningful achievement gains from reallocating teachers within a district. Using an estimated equilibrium model of the teacher labor market, we find that achieving most of these gains requires directly affecting teachers' preferences over schools. In contrast, directly affecting principals' selection of teachers can lower student achievement. Our analysis highlights the importance of equilibrium and second-best reasoning in analyzing teacher labor market policies. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202205&r= |
| By: | Lekha Chakraborty; Harikrishnan S |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper analyzes the economic stimulus packages announced by the Indian national government and tries to identify some plausible fiscal and monetary policy coordination. The shrinking fiscal space due to revenue uncertainties has led to a theoretical plausibility of a reemergence of finite monetization of deficits in India. However, the empirical evidence confirms no direct monetization of the deficit. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination; Fiscal Deficits; Monetization; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E58 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1002&r= |
| By: | Ngo, Vu M. (University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (CEPR, Global Labor Organization (GLO), and UNU-MERIT); Nguyen, Phuc V. (Massey University, and Global Labor Organization (GLO)); Huynh, Toan L.D. (University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, IPAG Business School, and Global Labor Organization (GLO)); Nguyen, Huan H. (University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City) |
| Abstract: | Since vaccination is the decisive factor for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand the process to vaccination success. We identify a variety of factors playing a crucial role including the availability of vaccines, pandemic pressures, economic strength (GDP), educational development and political regimes. Examining the speed of vaccinations across countries, we find that initially authoritarian countries are slow in the vaccination process, while education is most relevant for scaling up the campaign and financial strength of the economies drive them to higher vaccination rates. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, educational development, political regimes, vaccination |
| JEL: | D72 C30 P16 I19 |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021046&r= |
| By: | Alex Davenport (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the possible distributional impacts of new trade barriers associated with the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing relations between the UK and EU after Brexit. We use a model of labour demand that incorporates input-output links across industries, and that allows for demand substitution by firms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We find that workers’ exposure is moderately increasing across the earnings distribution. Exposure is greater for men than for women as they are more likely to work in manufacturing industries that are relatively harder hit by new trade barriers. Looking across areas, we find that exposure to new Brexit trade barriers is uncorrelated with measures of local deprivation and the impacts of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/42&r= |
| By: | Hildenbrand, Hannah-Maria; von Rueden, Christina; Viete, Steffen |
| Abstract: | Online platforms have become one of the most important business models of the digital economy and likely counteracted some of the drop in economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, platform markets are subject to controversial debates about market power and the need for pro-competitive policy reforms. Despite their rising importance in modern economies, however, a lack of data on platforms' activity complicates the evaluation of their impact on economies and societies. In this paper we aim to improve the understanding of patterns of platform diffusion and market dynamics among online platforms in Germany using proprietary data on website traffic between 2018 and 2021. Our analysis suggests that German platform markets experienced considerable growthover the past years, and especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results also show that the pandemic led to diverging growth patterns between sectors of the German platform economy, reflecting the sectoral heterogeneity of the COVID-19 shock. Finally, while German platforms are numerous, they often fail to reach a critical size to challenge the mostly foreign dominant platforms. We associate this finding with the observation that dominance in platform market typically persists over time, possibly reflecting a lack of market contestability. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:072021&r= |
| By: | Ricardo Nunes; Ali K. Ozdagli; Jenny Tang |
| Abstract: | Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, we use interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases. On these release dates, there are no pure policy shocks, which allows us to identify the impact of information shocks and thereby distill pure policy shocks from interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements. Our results show that there is a prominent central bank information component in the widely used high-frequency policy rate surprise measure that needs to be parsed out. When we remove this central bank information component, the estimated effects of monetary policy shocks are more pronounced relative to those estimated using the entire policy rate surprise. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; central bank information; high-frequency identification; proxy structural VAR; external instruments |
| JEL: | C36 D83 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:93691&r= |
| By: | Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Bansi Malde (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Kent); Harriet Olorenshaw (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Zaki Wahhaj (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We exploit novel data collected within a randomised controlled trial of a sanitation microcredit intervention to study how intra-household gender di?erences in perceptions of costs and bene?ts of sanitation impact investment decisions. We show that – as long as the wife is involved in household decision-making – the intra-household differences in perceptions we document influence borrowing and investments: uptake of the sanitation loan is higher among households where the wife has higher bene?t perception, whereas successful conversion to a toilet depends on di?erences in monetary cost perceptions. The estimated effects are consistent with the predictions of a model of intra-household decision-making. |
| Date: | 2021–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/45&r= |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Bloom, Nick; Lucking, Brian; Sadun, Raffaella; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | What is the optimal form of firm organization during "bad times"? The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information increases (the "localist" view). On the other hand, the need to make tough decisions may favor centralized firms (the "centralist" view). Using two large micro datasets on decentralization in firms in ten OECD countries (WMS) and US establishments (MOPS administrative data), we find that firms that delegated more power from the central headquarters to local plant managers prior to the Great Recession outperformed their centralized counterparts in sectors that were hardest hit by the subsequent crisis (as measured by export growth and product durability). Results based on measures of turbulence based on product churn and stock market volatility provide further support to the localist view. This conclusion is robust to alternative explanations such as managerial fears of bankruptcy and changing coordination costs. Although decentralization will be suboptimal in many environments, it does appear to be beneficial for the average firm during bad times. |
| Keywords: | ES/V009478/1; 1459715 |
| JEL: | G12 G32 G34 L23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105000&r= |
| By: | Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Baye, Kaleab; de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle; Wolle, Abdulazize |
| Abstract: | Poor diet quality has been widely identified as a primary reason for malnutrition and the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Low consumption of fruits and vegetables contributes to poor diet quality, and one factor leading to low fruit and vegetable consumption is limited consumer awareness of the health and nutrition benefits of consumption. In this study, we experimentally assess a method of increasing consumer awareness, specifically, through showing households two different versions of a video embedded with messages about increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. The first video included just the basic recommended consumption behavior messages, while the second video also explained why and how fruit and vegetable consumption could improve health and nutrition outcomes. Even four months after viewing the video, average household consumption of fruits and vegetables increased by about 10 percent in both treatment groups relative to the control group, both in kilocalorie and consumption expenditure terms. The videos were developed to eventually show on national TV, suggesting that embedding dietary BCC messages in popular media can have positive impacts on diet quality at scale. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; diet; fruit; vegetables; urban areas; malnutrition; consumer education; nutrition education; videos; behavior change communication; diet quality |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2052&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After contracting more than 5 percent in 2020, Kosovo’s economy is projected to have recovered by 7.5 percent in 2021, thanks to mobility normalization, extraordinary diaspora inflows, and strengthened confidence. Improved vaccination rates supported these trends and mitigation and recovery measures provided lifelines to those most affected by the pandemic. Though GDP growth is expected to normalize in 2022, the new omicron variant is a reminder that the pandemic continues to represent the main downside risk. |
| Date: | 2022–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/005&r= |
| By: | Gara Afonso; Lorie Logan; Antoine Martin; Will Riordan; Patricia Zobel |
| Abstract: | At its June 2021 meeting, the FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 0 to 25 basis points, while two of the Federal Reserve’s administered rates—interest on reserve balances and the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility offering rate—each were increased by 5 basis points. What do these two simultaneous decisions mean? In today’s post, we look at “technical adjustments”—a tool the Fed can deploy to keep the FOMC’s policy rate well within the target range and support smooth market functioning. |
| Keywords: | technical adjustments; monetary policy implementation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93621&r= |
| By: | Tadao Hoshino |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider the estimation of a continuous treatment effect model in the presence of treatment spillovers through social networks. We assume that one's outcome is affected not only by his/her own treatment but also by the average of his/her neighbors' treatments, both of which are treated as endogenous variables. Using a control function approach with appropriate instrumental variables, in conjunction with some functional form restrictions, we show that the conditional mean potential outcome can be nonparametrically identified. We also consider a more empirically tractable semiparametric model and develop a three-step estimation procedure for this model. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established under certain regularity conditions. As an empirical illustration, we investigate the causal effect of the regional unemployment rate on the crime rate using Japanese city data. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15114&r= |
| By: | Ollech, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the need for timely and granular information to assess the state of the economy in real time. Weekly and daily indices have been constructed using higher frequency data to address this need. Yet the seasonal and calendar adjustment of the underlying time series is challenging. Here, we analyse the features and idiosyncracies of such time series relevant in the context of seasonal adjustment. Drawing on a set of time series for Germany - namely hourly electricity consumption, the daily truck toll mileage, and weekly Google Trends data - used in many countries to assess economic development during the pandemic, we discuss obstacles, difficulties, and adjustment options. Furthermore, we develop a taxonomy of the central features of seasonal higher frequency time series. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,DSA,Calendar adjustment,Time series characteristics |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C87 E66 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:532021&r= |
| By: | Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun |
| Abstract: | Economic theories are often encoded in equilibrium models that cannot be directly estimated because they lack features that, while inessential to the theoretical mechanism that is central to the specific theory, would be essential to fit the data well. We propose an econometric approach that confronts such theories with data through the lens of a time series model that is a good description of macroeconomic reality. Our approach explicitly acknowledges misspecificationas well as measurement error. We highlight in two applications that household heterogeneity greatly helps to fit aggregate data, independently of whether or not nominal rigidities are considered. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Inference,Misspecification,Heterogeneity,VAR,DSGE |
| JEL: | C32 C50 E30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:562021&r= |
| By: | Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina; Basuony, Mohamed A. K.; Lutz, Stefan; Mohamed, Ehab K. A. |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests that international ownership of local firms supports firm performance and growth through various channels such as financing, technology transfer, and improved access to international markets. This is particularly true for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that otherwise may lack access to a variety of vital resources. At the same time small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) formation may promote economic development. The relationship between firm performance and international ownership has been well explored for firms in developed economies but this is not the case for firms - including SMEs - in Africa and the Middle East. Largely due to lack of relevant cross-country financial data, existing literature on African and Middle-Eastern firms has presented survey-based evidence on firm performance while evidence based on detailed financial information remains lacking. The present paper aims at filling this research gap. We identify African and Middle-Eastern SMEs operating in the formal sector and examine the impact of ownership structure on firm performance. We use cross-sectional financial data covering about 25,500 companies - including about 30% SMEs - in 69 African and Middle-Eastern countries for the years 2006 to 2015. Our results indicate that international ownership has significant positive association with firm performance. For internationally-owned SMEs this appears to be true despite lower levels of equity and debt capital, implying that internationally-owned firms use international resources - other than capital - more efficiently! |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fhfwps:22&r= |
| By: | Gabriel Irimia Anghel (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University from Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | As Confucius said, a picture is worth a thousand words. Moreover, when we talk about forensic photography, we must choose our “words†carefully, as they must lead to the satisfaction of the purpose of the criminal trial, namely the finding of the truth or, more precisely, the timely and complete ascertainment of the facts which constitute crimes, so that no innocent person is held criminally liable, and any person who has committed a crime is punished according to law. Forensic photography, unlike the other branches of photography, has the ability to become a decision-maker in sentencing or acquitting a defendant, just as it can make the difference between life and death in states where the capital sentence still applies. For these reasons, I have proposed that, in this paper, I expose mistakes that may occur in the execution of forensic photographs, the causes of these mistakes and the solutions for their prevention and removal. |
| Keywords: | mistakes, forensic, photography, crime, investigation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0093&r= |
| By: | Sharofiddinov Husniddin (International Fund for saving the Aral Sean, Republic of Tajikistan); Moinul Islam (Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Koji Kotani (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Irrigation water unavailability has become one of the long term problems in Tajikistan. In the post-Soviet period, Tajikistan government started reforming agricultural land for the efficient management. The reallocation was initiated by administrative boundary changes to facilitate the growing number of farmers and ensure crop diversity. However, the modernization of the irrigation water infrastructure did not take place simultaneously. This study identifies agricultural land reform’s impact on the irrigation water demand and supply of Sugd province of Tajikistan. We conduct the panel regression analysis by utilizing the data from 1996 to 2020 of the 13 states in Sugd province. We identify the impact of the number of water users, irrigation area type and water payment system on the irrigation water demand. Our results show that to deal with the changing demand of water in Tajikistan, irrigation systems need to modernize for gravity and pump irrigated areas. The payment system for irrigation water also deserves attention for the compatibility with the increasing irrigation water demand of Tajikistan. We also identify that irrigation water supply is impacted by the number of increasing water users. The possible solution to deal with the water supply shortage in Tajikistan is to eradicate system loss, introduce irrigation water rationing, improve water supply networks and update the Soviet period water pumps. |
| Keywords: | Irrigation water, water users, pump irrigation, gravity irrigation, payment for water services |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2022-3&r= |
| By: | Alexander Hijzen; Andrea Salvatori |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of the COVID-19 crisis across socio-economic groups in Switzerland and the role played by its short-time work scheme during the first year of the crisis until the end of 2020. To this end, it compares changes in hours worked for different socio-groups in Switzerland and other OECD countries, and then documents differences across groups in the use of short time work and in the risk of job loss. Finally, the paper investigates differences between groups of short-time work participants in terms of the reduction in working time, job search behavior and the risk of subsequent job loss. The evidence so far suggests that the Swiss short time work scheme as it operated during the first year of the COVID-19 crisis was fit for purpose. |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J30 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:268-en&r= |
| By: | Stern, Samuel; Livan, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of noise and topology on opinion diversity in social networks. We do so by extending well-established models of opinion dynamics to a stochastic setting where agents are subject both to assimilative forces by their local social interactions, as well as to idiosyncratic factors preventing their population from reaching consensus. We model the latter to account for both scenarios where noise is entirely exogenous to peer influence and cases where it is instead endogenous, arising from the agents' desire to maintain some uniqueness in their opinions. We derive a general analytical expression for opinion diversity, which holds for any network and depends on the network's topology through its spectral properties alone. Using this expression, we find that opinion diversity decreases as communities and clusters are broken down. We test our predictions against data describing empirical influence networks between major news outlets and find that incorporating our measure in linear models for the sentiment expressed by such sources on a variety of topics yields a notable improvement in terms of explanatory power. |
| Keywords: | network science; opinion dynamics; social networks; PSRC Early Career Fellowship in Digital Economy (grant no. EP/ N006062/1 |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113424&r= |
| By: | Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alain Nadaï (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); C. Cassen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03504158&r= |
| By: | Nurdaulet Abilov (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University) |
| Abstract: | We extend the literature on the role of uncertainty shocks in small open economies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with stochastic volatility for the economy of Kazakhstan. We build a small-scale DSGE model for Kazakhstan with non-linear time-varying volatility of shock processes. Due to the inherent non-linearity in the model we estimate the parameters of the volatility processes using the Particle filter, and then estimate structural parameters of the model via simulated method of moments (SMM) |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; Oil price uncertainty; Particle filter; Simulated method of moments; Kazakhstan. |
| JEL: | E20 E32 E43 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajx:wpaper:16&r= |
| By: | Tamar Kvirikashvili (Georgian-American University, Georgia) |
| Abstract: | Our environment has feedback as a trigger. After all, our environment constantly gives us new information important to our lives and changes our behavior. Triggers are often some sort of internal or external stimulus that causes the former addict and are reminders that put people in emotional and mental place of pain, anger, distress, frustration and other strong emotions. Therefore, it is important for managers in organizations not only to help workers control emotional situations but be able to control their own feelings, which can help contribute to a healthy environment, allow workers to perform according to their potential and maintain workers’ morale. The paper is about qualitative research in two Georgian organizations. It was interesting which organizational triggers were used in these companies and how these triggers were used by managers for improving the performance quality of service employees, therefore interviews were conducted with the people who were involved in managing people. |
| Keywords: | organizational triggers, performance quality, service employees |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0097&r= |
| By: | Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Elena Pizzo (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Stephen Morris (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Mariya Melnychuk (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Child maltreatment is a major public health problem with significant consequences for individual victims and for society. In this paper we quantify for the first time the economic costs of fatal and non-fatal child maltreatment in the UK in relation to several short-, medium- and long-term outcomes ranging from physical and mental health problems, to labour market outcomes and welfare use. We combine novel regression analysis of rich data from the National Child Development Study and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with secondary evidence to produce an incidence-based estimate of the lifetime costs of child maltreatment from a societal perspective. The discounted average lifetime incidence cost of non-fatal child maltreatment by a primary caregiver is estimated at £89,390 (95% uncertainty interval £44,896 to £145,508); the largest contributors to this are costs from social care, short-term health and long-term labour market outcomes. The discounted lifetime cost per death from child maltreatment is estimated at £940,758, comprising health care and lost productivity costs. Our estimates provide the first comprehensive benchmark to quantify the costs of child maltreatment in the UK and the benefits of interventions aimed at reducing or preventing it. |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/22&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2022–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/009&r= |
| By: | Attila Gaspar; Tommaso Giommoni; Massimo Morelli; Antonio Nicolò |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that corruption generates extremism, but almost exclusively on the opposition side. When the majority has greater ability to use corruption to obtain her favorite policy outcome from the minority, then the minority group has an incentive to select a more extreme representative because it is more unlikely that such a type will accept a bribe. On the majority side, on the other hand, the perception of more likely use of the corruption tool does not create any distortion in the choice of political representatives. We provide strong causal evidence for these novel predictions using two different types of corruption signals, in Indonesia and Brazil. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Extremism, Delegation, elections |
| JEL: | D72 D73 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21163&r= |
| By: | Ellis, Andrew; Masatlioglu, Yusufcan |
| Abstract: | We propose and axiomatize the categorical thinking model (CTM) in which the framing of the decision problem affects how agents categorize alternatives, that in turn affects their evaluation of it. Prominent models of salience, status quo bias, loss-aversion, inequality aversion, and present bias all fit under the umbrella of CTM. This suggests categorization is an underlying mechanism of key departures from the neoclassical model of choice. We specialize CTM to provide a behavioural foundation for the salient thinking model of Bordalo et al. (2013, Journal of Political Economy, 121, 803–843) that highlights its strong predictions and distinctions from other models. |
| Keywords: | choice; categorization; salience; SES-1628883; OUP deal |
| JEL: | D01 D11 D80 D90 |
| Date: | 2022–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109787&r= |
| By: | Mona Hanna-Attisha |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprpbr:57&r= |
| By: | Marius Clemens; Werner Röger |
| Abstract: | The system of capital taxation consists of two instruments, namely a tax on profits and a depreciation allowance on investment. We will show in this paper that by acting on both instruments simultaneously it is possible to achieve both a growth and a fiscal net revenue target even in cases when a trade off prevails when each instrument is used individually. This is an application of the Tinbergen rule (Tinbergen 1952) to capital taxation. In the current context a fundamental requirement for this rule to work is that the two tax instruments imply different trade offs. As will be shown in the paper, depreciation allowances have a more favorable trade off between growth and net revenue in the long run compared to statutory profit tax rates. Thus, by increasing depreciation allowances and the statutory tax rate at the same time it is possible to both increase growth and fiscal space. In a model simulation calibrated to the German economy and tax system an increase of the tax depreciation rate for all investments from 10% to 25% leads to more than 2 percent GDP increase and more than 6 percent higher private investments in total. Whereas GDP and investment rise steadily over time, the government budget becomes negative in the short run. In the long run the sign of the fiscal budget effect is determined by the assumption about indexation of government consumption to GDP. However, according to the Tinbergen rule for capital taxation slight adjustments of the capital tax rate could balance out these deficits and generate additional fiscal space. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Capital Allowance, Capital Tax |
| JEL: | E61 E62 H25 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1986&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim Ngouhouo (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Loudi Njoya (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this paper is to contribute to in-depth literature on the relationship between growth and the informal sector in the presence of corruption. The impact of the interaction between growth and corruption on economic performance (increase or decrease of the informal sector) will be discussed. To the best of our knowledge, our paper is unique in the empirical literature because it studies the effect of the interaction between growth and corruption in the informal sector using a sample of developing countries. Our results based on the FE, system GMM, MG, AMG, and IV-2SLS for 112 countries between the 1991-2015 periods, show that growth reduces informality in the direct effect regression. Moreover, economic growth interacts with corruption and produces negative net effects up to a corruption threshold of 4.79745 when this effect is nullified. This negative net effect was found to be robust across different regional groupings and income groups except in the Middle East and North Africa (positive net effect) and high income and upper-middle-income countries (only direct effects) producing different thresholds per sample. The study recommends that policymakers should intensify their fight against corruption in their quest to reduce the size of the informal economy. |
| Keywords: | Informal sector, Growth, Corruption, Developing countries |
| JEL: | D73 F47 J46 O1 O17 O47 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/014&r= |
| By: | V. V. Chari; Luis Pérez |
| Abstract: | Iovino, La’O and Mascarenhas (forthcoming) ask two important questions regarding the optimal conduct of monetary policy: Should the central bank’s policy depend on information the central bank has that is not available to markets? And should the central bank disclose information that it has but market participants do not? Iovino, La’O and Mascarenhas answer these questions using a simple, stylized model with one-period price stickiness. They show that efficient equilibria can be sustained regardless of whether policy depends on the central bank’s information and regardless of its disclosure policy. We explain the logic behind their irrelevance result and show that if restrictions are imposed on equilibria, then monetary policy should in general depend on the central bank’s information. Finally, we offer some speculative answers to their questions and discuss the sense in which policy is converging towards theory. |
| Keywords: | Indeterminacy; Implementation of efficient outcomes; Dependence of policy on information; Central bank communication |
| JEL: | E52 E58 H21 |
| Date: | 2021–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93459&r= |
| By: | Cavaillé, Charlotte; Chen, Daniel L.; Van Der Straeten, Karine |
| Abstract: | Many questions in political science require knowing not only what voters want (pref-erence orientation) but also how much they want it (preference intensity). In this paper, we assess two methods for measuring individual differences in preference intensity. One method — issue importance items — asks respondents to self-report how important a given set of policy proposals is to them personally. Another — Quadratic Voting for Survey Research (QVSR) — gives respondents a fixed budget to ‘buy’ votes in favor of (against) these policy proposals, with the price for each vote increasing quadratically. We provide theoretical arguments explaining why, in a polarized environment where some respondents may feel pressured to pay lip service to the party norms, one should expect QVSR to offer a better measure of preference intensity. Using Likert items as the benchmark, we find that QVSR more consistently differentiates between intense and weak preferences, as proxied by respondents’ behavior on simplified real-world tasks. Revisiting debates on the determinants of policy preferences, or the congruence between mass opinions and the policy status quo, we show that conclusions reached when using Likert items alone change once differences in preference intensity are bet-ter accounted for. |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:126569&r= |
| By: | Dorian Chirita (Judge, Craiova Court of Appeal, Craiova, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In order to create a better society, due importance must be given to persons deprived of their liberty, in the sense of changing their behavior, so that in the end they no longer commit antisocial acts. As a result, the necessary attention must be paid to the development of appropriate educational and social programs, as well as to places of detention. Thus, as we will show below, the architecture of the penitentiary should be different, both inside and out. We cannot achieve the expected resocialization if we do not adapt the construction of detention units and educational programs to a positive purpose and not to a punitive one. |
| Keywords: | Rehabilitation, reintegration into society, penitentiary architecture, healthy environment, communication between detainees and guards, educational programs |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0110&r= |
| By: | Fernando M. Aragón (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Diego Restuccia (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Juan Pablo Rud (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that using yields may not be informative of the relationship between farm size and productivity in the context of small-scale farming. This occurs because, in addition to productivity, yields pick up size-dependent market distortions and decreasing returns to scale. As a result, a positive relationship between farm productivity and land size may turn negative when using yields. We illustrate the empirical relevance of this issue with microdata from Uganda and show similar findings for Peru, Tanzania, and Bangladesh. In addition, we show that the dispersion in both measures of productivity across farms of similar size is so large that it renders farm size an ine?ective indicator for policy targeting. Our findings stress the need to revisit the empirical evidence on the farm size-productivity relationship and its policy implications. |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/35&r= |
| By: | Medaglia, Rony; Eaton, Ben; Hedman, Jonas; Whitley, Edgar A. |
| Abstract: | Establishing IT governance arrangements is a deeply political process, where relationships of power play a crucial role. While the importance of power relationships is widely acknowledged in IS literature, specific mechanisms whereby the consequences of power relationships affect IT governance arrangements are still under-researched. This study investigates the way power relationships are inscribed in the governance of digital identity systems in Denmark and the United Kingdom, where public and private actors are involved. Drawing on the theoretical lens of circuits of power, we contribute to research on the role of power in IT governance by identifying two distinct mechanisms of power inscription into IT governance: power cultivation and power limitation. |
| Keywords: | power; IT governance; digital identity; Denmark; United Kingdom |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108207&r= |
| By: | Ernesto M. Pernia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | "Health is wealth," though a cliché, has scarcely been uttered during this coronavirus pandemic. Not surprising as it has become second nature to individuals, while what we have is a public health crisis. So more appropriate is "health is economy." Indeed, health and economy are intimately linked and interactive -- sound public health is good for the productivity and sustainability of the economy which, in turn, generates jobs and goods needed for a healthy population. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippine economy; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202013&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates profit margins in the U.S. airline industry at the domestic route level. The dynamic estimation methodology used not only is robust to any simultaneity/endogeneity bias by construction but also results in profit margin estimates that are highly consistent with actual profit data from the U.S. airline industry. Estimated annual profit margins have an average of about 13.3%, with a range between 2.7% and 42.9% across routes. A cross-route analysis further suggests that annual profit margins increase with the market share of the largest airline serving the route, whereas they decrease with airfare. Important policy suggestions follow. |
| Keywords: | Profit Margin, Price Elasticity, U.S. Domestic Routes |
| JEL: | C32 L93 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2125&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Bouckaert; Devriese Stephan; Koen Van den Heede |
| Date: | 2021–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:681426&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of strict liability on imperfect competition and shows first that it is not an obstacle to achieving a socially optimal level of care. Second, this result is compromised when firms face a scarce generic asset. Under this asset limitation, this paper shows that competition (here a Cournot-Nash duopoly) leads to a lower level of prevention even if more product at lower price is supplied at the equilibrium. Introducing standards linked to operating permits improves the economy's safety level but may lead firms to exit. |
| Keywords: | Tort Law,Strict Liability,Negligence Rule,Imperfect Competition,Oligopoly,Cournot Competitio |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502602&r= |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Unhappy with the rulings of the WTO dispute settlement system, which disproportionately targeted US use of trade remedies, the United States ended the entire system in 2019. There are multiple hurdles to agreeing to new terms of trade remedy use and thus potentially restoring some form of binding dispute settlement. First, a change would affect access to policy flexibility by the now large number of users of trade remedies. Second, although China's exports are the overwhelming target of trade remedies, exporters in other countries increasingly find themselves caught up in trade remedy actions linked to China. Third, critical differences posed by China's economic model may call for new rules for trade remedies, but no consensus on those rules has emerged. Even some of the most promising reforms have practical limitations, create additional challenges, or may be politically unviable. |
| Keywords: | WTO, dispute settlement, Appellate Body, trade remedies, antidumping, countervailing duties, safeguards, US, China |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp22-1&r= |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Yusuf Soner Başkaya (Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, Glasgow, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates spatial wage curves for formal and informal workers in Turkey using individual level data from the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey (THLFS) provided by TURKSTAT for the period 2008-2014. Unlike previous studies on wage curves for formal and informal workers, we extend the analysis to allow for spatial effects. We also consider household characteristics that would affect the selection into formal employment, informal employment, and non-employment. We find that the spatial wage curve relation holds both for formal and informal workers in Turkey for a variety of specifications. In general, the wages of informal workers are more sensitive to the unemployment rates of the same region and other regions than formal workers. We find that accounting for the selection into formal and informal employment affects the magnitudes but not the significance of the spatial wage curves for the formal and informal workers with the latter always being larger in absolute value than that for formal workers. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Wage Curve, Spatial Weights, Regional Labor Markets, Informal Labor Markets |
| JEL: | C21 J30 J60 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:246&r= |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Ying Fang (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics & Data Science, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Ming Lin (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics and Data Science, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Mingfeng Zhan (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the paper by Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012), which proposed a factor-based model to estimate the average treatment effect with panel data, this paper proposes a quantile treatment effect model for panel data to characterize the distributional effect of a treatment. We propose to estimate the counterfactual quantile for the treated unit by using the relationship between conditional and unconditional distributions. Also, the asymptotic properties for the proposed quantile treatment effect estimator are established, together with discussing the choice of control units and covariates. A simulation study is conducted to illustrate our method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to estimate the quantile treatment effects of introducing CSI 300 index futures trading on both the log-return and volatility of the stock market in China. |
| Keywords: | LASSO method; Panel data; Nonparametric estimation; Quantile regression; Treatment effects. |
| JEL: | C13 C14 C33 C52 C54 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202205&r= |
| By: | Anders Dugstad; Kristine Grimsrud (Statistics Norway); Gorm Kipperberg; Henrik Lindhjem; Ståle Navrud |
| Abstract: | Economists have neglected place attachment as a potential explanation for people’s preferences for environmental goods. We conducted the first discrete choice experiment to assess the place attachment concept in the valuation of and response to the place-specific environmental impact from a proposed wind farm in Norway. Place attachment increases required compensation for accepting the wind farm, strengthens resistance, and leads to a higher propensity to systematically choose the status quo option of no wind farm in the discrete choice experiment. This finding suggests that the so-called “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) effect should be recognized as a rational response when people place a high value on local environmental amenities, including place identity and a sense of place. |
| Keywords: | Place attachment; sense of place; NIMBY (not-in-my-backyard); discrete choice experiment; cultural ecosystem services; wind energy |
| JEL: | Q40 Q51 Q57 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:974&r= |
| By: | Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the design of sin taxes when ?rms exercise market power. We outline an optimal tax framework that highlights how market power impacts the e?ciency and redistributive properties of sin taxation, and quantify these e?ects in an application to sugar-sweetened beverage taxation. We estimate a detailed model of demand and supply for the UK drinks market, which we embed in our tax design framework to solve for optimal sugar-sweetened beverage tax policy. Positive price-cost margins on drinks create allocative distortions, which act to lower the optimal rate compared with a perfectly competitive setting. However, since pro?ts accrue to the rich, this is partially mitigated under social preferences for equity. Overall, ignoring market power when setting the optimal sugar-sweetened beverage tax rate leads to welfare gains that are 40% below those at the optimum. We show that moving from a single tax rate on sugar-sweetened beverages to a multi-rate system can result in further substantial welfare gains, with much of these gains realized by instead taxing sugar content directly. |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/30&r= |
| By: | Eftichios Sartzetakis; Anastasios Xepapadeas; Athanasios Yannacopoulos |
| Abstract: | Continuously increasing consumption of material goods drives current resource and environmental crises, including climate change and loss of biodiversity. Technology offers solutions the development and the adoption of which though is not at the speed required to address the crises. Therefore, demand side responses have to be triggered and the most common economic suggestion is to use price signals. Increases in fuel prices during the last decade in both Europe and North America though, have not yielded the expected reductions in the fuel economy. Furthermore, ambitious increases in fuel prices have resulted in considerable opposition, especially by low-income people. The present paper offers an explanation for the reduced effectiveness of environmental taxation by focusing on relatively high-income individuals whose consumption of highly polluting material goods is driven by motivations to improve their social status. Furthermore, the paper shows that complementing the tax with information provision aiming at moderating status seeking overconsumption improves social welfare. Convincing people, through information campaigns and/or advertisement that consuming highly polluting material goods does not improve their social status could have a substantial effect which perfectly complements taxation, improving actually its effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | status-seaking, replicator dynamics, information provision, environmental taxation |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 D62 D82 |
| Date: | 2022–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2207&r= |
| By: | Stark, Oded |
| Abstract: | We examine an assumed link between reducing inequality in income distribution, namely reducing the Gini coefficient on one hand, and improving public health in general and lowering the incidence and severity of COVID-19 in particular on the other hand. The Gini coefficient can be shown to consist of two components, one of which is (a measure of) relative deprivation, which was found to cause social stress that harms public health. Because a component is not the whole, the lowering of inequality in the income distribution by means of reducing the Gini coefficient does not necessarily result in lowering relative deprivation. Specifically, we show that a policy of reducing income inequality aimed at improving public health might not be effective - even when, in the process, no-one’s income is reduced, or all incomes increase. |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:319327&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study establishes economic growth needed for supply-side mobile money drivers in developing countries to be positively related to mobile money innovations in the perspectives of mobile money accounts, the mobile phone used to send money, and the mobile phone used to receive money. The empirical evidence is based on Tobit regressions. For the negative net relationships that are computed, minimum economic growth thresholds are established above which the net negative relationships become net positive relationships. The following minimum economic growth rates are required for nexuses between supply-side mobile money drivers and mobile money innovations to be positive: (i) 6.109% (6.193%) of GDP growth for mobile connectivity performance to be positively associated with the mobile phone used to send (receive) money and (ii) 4.590 % (4.259%) of GDP growth for mobile connectivity coverage to be positively associated with the mobile phone used to send (receive) money. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money; technology diffusion; financial inclusion; inclusive innovation |
| JEL: | D10 D14 D31 D60 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/013&r= |
| By: | Erdinc Akyildirim; Matteo Gambara; Josef Teichmann; Syang Zhou |
| Abstract: | Anomaly detection is the process of identifying abnormal instances or events in data sets which deviate from the norm significantly. In this study, we propose a signatures based machine learning algorithm to detect rare or unexpected items in a given data set of time series type. We present applications of signature or randomized signature as feature extractors for anomaly detection algorithms; additionally we provide an easy, representation theoretic justification for the construction of randomized signatures. Our first application is based on synthetic data and aims at distinguishing between real and fake trajectories of stock prices, which are indistinguishable by visual inspection. We also show a real life application by using transaction data from the cryptocurrency market. In this case, we are able to identify pump and dump attempts organized on social networks with F1 scores up to 88% by means of our unsupervised learning algorithm, thus achieving results that are close to the state-of-the-art in the field based on supervised learning. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02441&r= |
| By: | A. H. Nzokem |
| Abstract: | We consider a $\Gamma(\alpha, \theta)$ Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and build a continuous sample path Variance-Gamma (VG) Process with five parameters ($\mu, \delta, \sigma, \alpha, \theta$): location ($\mu$), symmetric ($\delta$), volatility ($\sigma$), and shape ($\alpha$) and scale ($\theta$). We investigate the associated L\'evy process and show that the l\'evy density belongs to the KoPoL family of order $\nu=0$, intensity $\alpha$ and steepness parameters $\frac{\delta}{\sigma^2} - \sqrt{\frac{\delta^2}{\sigma^4}+\frac{2}{\theta \sigma^2}}$ and $\frac{\delta}{\sigma^2}+ \sqrt{\frac{\delta^2}{\sigma^4}+\frac{2}{\theta \sigma^2}}$. The associated L\'evy process is also shown to converge in distribution to a l\'evy process driven by a Normal distribution with mean $(\mu + \alpha \theta \delta)$ and variance $\alpha (\theta^2\delta^2 + \sigma^2\theta)$. The data used as illustrations comes from the fitting of the five-parameter Variance Gamma (VG) model to the SPY ETF daily price by Nzokem (Nzokem 2021 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 2090 012094). The five-parameter Variance Gamma (VG) process is used subsequently to investigate how well the VG model fits the European option price compare to the Black-Schole option. The Esscher martingale of the VG model is shown to be another VG model with adjusted parameter. The closed form of the VG option price is provided. The numerical solution is computed using Fractional Fast Fourier (FRFT) algorithm. Compare to the Black-Scholes (BS) model, we find that the VG option is overvalued for deep out of the money (OTM) options. The error sign changes for Deep in the money (ITM) and long term time to maturity, where the VG option is undervalued. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.03378&r= |
| By: | Allen Head (Queen's University); Timothy Kam (Australian National University); Sam Ng (Australian National University); Isaac Pan (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Using micro-level data for the U.S., we provide new evidence—at national and state levels—of a positive (negative) relationship between the standard deviation (coefficient of variation)and the average in bank lending-rate markups. In a quantitative theory consistent with theseempirical observations, banks’ lending market power is determined in equilibrium and is a novelchannel of monetary policy. At low inflation, banks tend to extract higher markups from existingloan customers rather than competing for additional loans. As a result, banking activity neednot be welfare-improving if inflation is sufficiently low. This result speaks to concerns regardingmarket power in the banking sectors of low-inflation countries. Normatively, under a giveninflation target, welfare gains arise if a central bank can use additional liquidity-provision (ortax-and-transfer) instruments to offset banks’ market-power incentives |
| Keywords: | Banking; Credit; Markup Dispersion; Market Power; Stabilization Policy; Liquidity |
| JEL: | E41 E44 E51 E63 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1481&r= |
| By: | Adrian Sandru (Institute of Juridical Studies Acad. Andrei Rădulescu of Romanian Academy, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to study and expose by comparing the institution of scientific evidence and the use of the expert in criminal proceedings, starting from the structural differences in evidence legal framework between the adversarial system and the continental system, to comparing procedural details on the disposition, conduct or assessment of an expert report. A comparative analysis of different legal systems, pointing out their advantages and disadvantages, should not lead necessary to a legal transplant, but could generate new visions that can materialize in certain proposals to improve criminal proceedings legislation through innovative legislative solutions that are inspired both from adversarial and continental systems and taking into consideration all the rules of criminal procedure at Romanian internal level. |
| Keywords: | expert evidence, criminal proceedings, evidence law, scientific evidence |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0112&r= |
| By: | Marco Bassetto (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Wei Cui (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We study optimal taxation in an economy with financial frictions, in which the government cannot directly redistribute towards the agents in need of liquidity but otherwise has access to a complete set of linear tax instruments. We establish a stark result. Provided this is feasible, optimal policy calls for the government to increase its debt, up to the point at which it provides sufficient liquidity to avoid financial constraints. In this case, capital-income taxes are zero in the long run, and the returns on government debt and capital are equalized. However, if the fiscal space is insufficient, a wedge opens between the rates of return on government debt and capital. In this case, optimal long-run tax policy is driven by a trade-off between the desire to mitigate financial frictions by subsidizing capital and the incentive to exploit the quasi-rents accruing to producers of capital by taxing capital instead. This latter incentive magnifies the wedge between rates of return on government debt and capital. It also makes it optimal to distort downward the interest rate on government debt in periods of high government spending. |
| Date: | 2021–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/05&r= |
| By: | D.J. da Cunha Batista Geraldes; Franziska Heinicke; S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/157222241 Rosenkranz |
| Abstract: | The expanding literature on lying has exclusively considered lying behavior within a one-dimensional context. While this has been an important first step, many real-world contexts involve the possibility of simultaneously lying in more than one dimension (e.g., reporting one’s income and expenses in a tax declaration). In this paper, we experimentally investigate individual lying behavior in both one- and two-dimensional contexts to understand whether the multi-dimensionality of a decision affects lying behavior. In the one-dimensional treatment, participants are asked to roll two dice in one hand and to report the sum of both dice. In the two-dimensional treatment, participants are asked to roll two dice at the same time, but one in each hand, and to report the two dice separately. Our paper provides the first evidence regarding lying behavior in a multi-dimensional context. Using a two-dimensional die-roll task, we show that participants lie partially between dimensions, i.e., they distribute lying unevenly across dimensions, which results in greater over-reporting of the lower outcome die. These findings suggest a pertinent policy to tackle the infamous societal challenge of tax fraud: Tax report checks should focus on the item(s) for which a taxpayer profile hints at higher self-benefits in case of misreporting. |
| Keywords: | lying, honesty, morals, multi-dimensional, lab experiment, lab-in-the-field experiment |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2101&r= |
| By: | Francisco Rivadeneyra; Nellie Zhang |
| Abstract: | A new wholesale payments system will launch in Canada in 2021. This real-time gross settlement system called Lynx will have two types of settlement mechanisms, one allowing offsetting and the other not. This paper studies the decision problem of the Bank of Canada: which of the two settlement mechanisms should it use to send its payments. Using extensive simulation, we show that, mainly due to the benefits of liquidity pooling, Lynx would achieve its highest liquidity efficiency—even better than that of the current Large Value Transfer System (LVTS)—if all payments (urgent and non-urgent) from all participants were sent to the mechanism allowing offsetting. The minimum amount of liquidity required to settle all payments by critical deadlines is approximately $10 billion, around half the amount of collateral that LVTS participants allocate (pre–COVID-19). Since time-critical payments sent to the offsetting mechanism could experience a delay, the high level of liquidity efficiency is accompanied by an increase in the number of participants' operational interventions (to pledge more collateral or to alter payment priorities) to ensure that those time-critical payments are never delayed. When coordination does not occur, liquidity efficiency can be far lower than in the LVTS. The results highlight that the Bank of Canada helping with coordination is more important than the specific choice of mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Payment clearing and settlement systems |
| JEL: | C C5 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:22-3&r= |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | Blockchain and other distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) could help create trust and consensus in areas of the transport sector where they are needed for efficient solutions but currently often lacking. Such challenges concern for instance clearing transactions amongst multiple parties with divergent interests, authenticating provenance, managing assets, and auditability. This report explores how DLTs can address these issues by providing an alternative to centralised record-keeping and third-party audit-based approaches. It offers recommendations for maximising the benefits of DLTs in transport based on several use cases in freight and logistics as well as passenger transport. |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:93-en&r= |
| By: | Martin Browning (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford); Laurens Cherchye (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Thomas Demuynck (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Bram De Rock (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Université libre de Bruxelles); Frederic Vermeulen (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Leuven) |
| Abstract: | We present a methodology for the structural empirical analysis of household consumption and time use behaviour under marital stability. Our approach is of the revealed preference type and non-parametric, meaning that it does not require a prior functional speci?cation of individual utilities. Without making use of the transferable utility assumption, but still allowing for monetary transfers, our method can identify individuals’ unobserved match qualities and quantify them in money metric terms. We can include both preference factors, a?ecting individuals’ preferences over private and public goods, and match quality factors, driving di?erences in unobserved match quality. We demonstrate the practical usefulness of our methodology through an application to the Belgian MEqIn data. Our results reveal intuitive patterns of unobserved match quality that allow us to rationalise both the observed matches and the within-household allocations of time and money. |
| Date: | 2021–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/31&r= |
| By: | Mustapha Douch (Bank of Lithuania, The University of Edinburgh); Huw Edwards (Loughborough University); Sushanta Mallick (Queen Mary University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical evidence on how the aftermath of the 2008 crisis affected firm productivity in the UK, taking account of the cohort effect of firms established after 2008. We test this using firmspecific and time-varying credit scores to capture firms’ ability to access credit. To overcome the identification problem, a matched sample based on firm’s credit score, firm age, size and ownership status is used by undertaking the propensity score matching approach. While we find evidence that smaller firm size and changes in credit conditions affect productivity, about half of the difference in productivity remains unexplained. We extend the matching analysis to examine sectors and cohorts, and find that, during 2011-2016, the low productivity is driven primarily by newer firms operating in the services sector, rather than in manufacturing. Within services, the underlying productivity puzzle is driven by a cessation of growth in high-productivity financial services, while abundant labour supply has led to a ‘levelling down’ of performance of newer firms in the rest of services, in line with relatively lowproductivity manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | : Total Factor Productivity, Cohort, Crisis, Firm Survival, Credit Score. |
| JEL: | E00 D24 E30 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lie:wpaper:101&r= |
| By: | Cavaillé, Charlotte; Chen, Daniel L.; Van Der Straeten, Karine |
| Abstract: | Many questions in political science require knowing not only what voters want (pref-erence orientation) but also how much they want it (preference intensity). In this paper, we assess two methods for measuring individual differences in preference intensity. One method — issue importance items — asks respondents to self-report how important a given set of policy proposals is to them personally. Another — Quadratic Voting for Survey Research (QVSR) — gives respondents a fixed budget to ‘buy’ votes in favor of (against) these policy proposals, with the price for each vote increasing quadratically. We provide theoretical arguments explaining why, in a polarized environment where some respondents may feel pressured to pay lip service to the party norms, one should expect QVSR to offer a better measure of preference intensity. Using Likert items as the benchmark, we find that QVSR more consistently differentiates between intense and weak preferences, as proxied by respondents’ behavior on simplified real-world tasks. Revisiting debates on the determinants of policy preferences, or the congruence between mass opinions and the policy status quo, we show that conclusions reached when using Likert items alone change once differences in preference intensity are bet-ter accounted for. |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:126566&r= |
| By: | Salaheddine Soummane (KAPSARC - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center); F. Ghersi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is undergoing unprecedented changes following the implementation of efficiency measures and energy price reforms. These changes raise uncertainties about the potential trajectory of long-term electricity demand. Thus, this study uses a computable general equilibrium model to project sectoral electricity demand in Saudi Arabia through 2030. We project that growth in total Saudi electricity demand will significantly decelerate over the coming decade compared with historical trends. In our reference scenario, this demand reaches 365.4 terawatthours (TWh) by 2030. However, our sectoral decomposition shows large disparities across sectors. Demand is projected to grow more rapidly in the industrial and services segments than in the residential sector. We also simulate four additional scenarios for domestic electricity price reforms and efficiency policies. Successfully implementing these measures may result in significant energy savings. Aligning Saudi electricity prices with the average electricity price among G20 countries can reduce total electricity demand by up to 71.6 TWh in 2030. Independently enforcing efficiency policies can reduce total electricity demand by up to 118.7 TWh. Moreover, alternative policy scenarios suggest that the macroeconomic gains from energy savings can alleviate some of the Saudi energy system's burden on public finance. |
| Keywords: | Electricity demand,General equilibrium model,Saudi Arabia,Electricity market reforms |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03500916&r= |
| By: | Noelia Bernal; Javier Olivera; Marc Suhrcke |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the discontinuity around a welfare index of eligibility to assess the heterogeneous health impacts of Peru’s social pension program Pension 65, which focuses on elderly poor individuals. The heterogeneity is analysed with regards to the treatment exposure (short vs long run), the accessibility to health care infrastructure (near vs distant facilities), and gender. Overall, we find improvements in anaemia, mortality risk markers, cognitive functioning, mental health, and self-reported health among eligible individuals; yet there is an increase in the risk of obesity among women, as well as an increase in reported chronic diseases. The program improves the quality of nutrition and health care access, but reduces the frequency or intensity of physical activities. About half of the effects on the analysed outcomes persist in the longer run and living in a district with good access to facilities stands out as the most relevant characteristic enhancing the beneficial program effects. Overall thus, the resulting health benefits in areas of under-nutrition are at most modestly compensated by deterioration in over-nutrition related conditions. As the program evolves further, policymakers need to confront the challenge of continuing to ensure the health benefits in terms of reducing nutritional deficits and the lack of health infrastructure while avoiding potential undesirable side effects in terms of over-nutrition in a geographically diverse country like Peru. |
| Keywords: | social pensions; Peru; nutrition; health; poverty; ageing |
| JEL: | H55 I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Balasubramaniam, Vimal (Queen Mary University of London); Sane, Renuka (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sarah, Mithila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Karthik Suresh (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | A rapid expansion in the Indian financial sector has necessitated a growing focus on improving customer service which also includes the delivery of a robust Grievance Redressal Mechanism (GRM). A GRM is a formal system through which complaints are resolved in a time-bound manner, thus improving public service delivery in the financial system. This paper assesses the GRM policy content that is available on the website of 21 financial service providers in India. The firms include the top three firms by market share in each sector - banking, insurance, pensions, payments, mutual funds, and brokerages. Financial firms differ in their performance across different metrics, highlighting areas for improvement with grievance redress processes with financial services providers (FSP). |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/365&r= |
| By: | Isabelle Liotard (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Valérie Revest |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the European Commission decided upon new political directions toward open innovation. Our aim is to assess to which extend the European Innovation Prizes are enshrined in the open innovation's movement. 22 innovation's prizes have been scrutinized on the basis on official EC's documents and interviews carried out with stakholders. The results tend to show that if a degree of openess is noted, European Innovation prizes could tend toward greater citizens' inclusivity. From an academic viewpoint, we propose to combine the properties of the concepts of innovation prizes and communities. |
| Date: | 2022–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-03524203&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We study the introduction of a price floor for alcohol that is aimed at correcting for negative consumption externalities. Policy effectiveness depends on whether the measure achieves large reductions in the most socially costly consumption. We exploit a natural experiment to show the policy raised prices of cheap products favored by heavy consumers, and achieved large demand reductions among this group. We use pre-reform data to estimate a model of consumer demand that is able to match these patterns, and use this to compare the welfare performance of a price floor with the counterfactual introduction of an ethanol tax. We show that if the marginal external cost of drinking is at least moderately higher for heavy drinkers, then a price floor is better targeted at the most socially costly consumption and therefore achieves larger welfare gains than an ethanol tax. Although the price floor leads to a larger fraction of the consumer burden falling on those with low incomes compared with the tax reform, it leads to a consumer burden that is smaller for all income groups. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/37&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | The efficiency criterion (the highest care level at the lowest accident cost) indisputably governs the comparison of performance between strict liability and negligence. This view stems from the standard accident model development in the 70's and the 80's that ensures under ideal conditions, the equivalence between regimes and assume their potential substitutability. We develop a more general accident model (under risk universe) with divergent views among the parties about the damage. It follows that efficiency is no longer a relevant criterion. liability regimes belong to specific fields: Ultra-hazardous activities for strict liability and the remaining areas of negligence. |
| Keywords: | Strict Liability,Unilateral Accident Model,Negligence Rule,Ultra-hazardous activities |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502611&r= |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Svenja Lorenz; Thomas Zwick; Mona Bruns |
| Abstract: | Early retirement options are usually targeted at employees at risk of not reaching their regular retirement age in employment. An important at-risk group comprises employees who have worked in demanding jobs for many years. This group may be particularly negatively affected by the abolition of early retirement options. To measure differences in labor market reactions of employees in low- and high-demand jobs, we exploit the quasi-natural experiment of a cohort-specific pension reform that increased the early retirement age for women from 60 to 63 years. Based on a large administrative dataset, we use a regression-discontinuity approach to estimate the labor market reactions. Surprisingly, we find the same relative employment increase of about 25% for treated women who were exposed to low and to high job demand. For older women in demanding jobs, we do not find substitution effects into unemployment, partial retirement, disability pension, or inactivity. Eligibility for the pension for women required high labor market attachment; thus, we argue that this eligibility rule induced the positive selection of healthy workers into early retirement. We propose alternative policies that protect workers exposed to high job demand better against the negative consequences of being unable to reach their statutory retirement age in employment. |
| Keywords: | Pension reform, job demand, early retirement, quasi-experimental variation |
| JEL: | J14 J18 J22 J26 H31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1978&r= |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Seong Yeon Chang (Department of Economics, Soongsil University, Seoul 06978, Korea) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers predictive regressions in which a structural break is allowed on an unknown date. We establish novel testing procedures for asset return predictability using empirical likelihood methods based on weighted-score equations. The theoretical results are useful in practice because our unified framework does not require distinguishing whether the predictor variables are stationary or nonstationary. Simulations show that the empirical likelihood-based tests perform well in terms of size and power in finite samples. As an empirical analysis, we test asset returns predictability using various predictor variables. |
| Keywords: | Autoregressive process; Empirical likelihood; Structural break; Unit root; Weighted estimation |
| JEL: | C12 C14 C32 G12 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202206&r= |
| By: | Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Olivier de Bandt; Hibiki Ichiue; Bora Durdu; Yasin Mimir; Jolan Mohimont; Kalin Nikolov; Sigrid Roehrs; Valério Scalone; Michael Straughan |
| Abstract: | This paper (i) reviews the different channels of transmission of prudential policy highlighted in the literature and (ii) provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of Basel III reforms using "off-the-shelf" DSGE models. It shows that the effects of regulation are positive on GDP whenever the costs and benefits of regulation are both introduced. However, this result may be associated with a temporary economic slowdown in the transition to Basel III, which can be accommodated by monetary policy. The assessment of liquidity requirements is still an area for research, as most models focus on costs, rather than on benefits, in particular in terms of lower contagion risk. |
| Keywords: | Basel III reforms, DSGE models, solvency requirements, liquidity requirements |
| JEL: | E3 E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2022-3&r= |
| By: | Jean-Louis Rastoin (Auteur indépendant) |
| Abstract: | Foresight considers possible futures. For food systems 2 scenarios, displaying a now-common objective of carbon neutrality, are the subject of controversy. One, advocates chemical and biotechnological intensification, the other ecological intensification. To overcome the conflicting influences introducing knowledge and political recommendation biases, a structural, spatial and temporal contextualization is necessary. The 5th current food transition should favor the socio-ecological scenario. |
| Abstract: | La prospective envisage les futurs possibles. Pour les systèmes alimentaires 2 scénarios, affichant un objectif désormais commun de neutralité carbone, font l'objet de controverses. L'un, tendanciel, prône l'intensification chimique et biotechnologique, l'autre l'intensification écologique. Pour dépasser les influences conflictuelles introduisant des biais de connaissance et de préconisation politique, une contextualisation structurelle, spatiale et temporelle s'avère nécessaire. La 5e transition alimentaire en cours devrait favoriser le scénario socio-écologique. |
| Keywords: | foresight,food system,stakeholder strategy,controversia,transition,prospective,système alimentaire,stratégie d’acteur,controverse |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03514312&r= |
| By: | Stephen Sullivan (University of the Incarnate Word, United States); Diana Garza (University of the Incarnate Word, United States) |
| Abstract: | The past year has seen critical fluctuations in business operations throughout the US and the world. Due to COVID-19, employees have been encouraged or forced to work from home instead of commuting to a regular work location. Remote work has disrupted and weakened security processes. Cyber criminals have seen an opportunity in this weakened infrastructure. Cybersecurity attacks have disrupted supply chains for businesses, schools, healthcare organizations and other entities. Organizations will need to reassess security strategies with the assumption that work-from-home will become permanent. The US Department of Homeland Security has stepped up its efforts to meet this risk head-on and has incorporated supply chain cybersecurity measures within the constructs of the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) program. This all-volunteer program was launched immediately after 9/11 to thwart potential supply chain risks that could open the door to major terrorist attacks on the US homeland. This research will explore the reasons why cybersecurity has become the nation’s number one commercial concern for supply chains and logistics management and how C-TPAT is enabling the proper change to the current business climate as a risk mitigating option. |
| Keywords: | cyber-security, C-TPAT, supply chain, risk |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0082&r= |
| By: | Georges Prat (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using survey-based data we show that oil price expectations are not rational, implying that the ex-ante premium is a more relevant concept than the widely popular expost premium. We propose for the 3-and 12-month horizons a portfolio choice model with risky oil assets and a risk-free asset. At the maximized expected utility the risk premium is defined as the risk price times the expected oil return volatility. A state-space model, where the risk prices are represented as stochastic unobservable components and where expected volatilities depend on historical squared returns, is estimated using Kalman filtering. We find that the representative investor is risk seeking at short horizons and risk averse at longer horizons. We examine the economic factors driving risk prices whose signs are shown to be consistent with the predictions of the prospect theory. An upward sloped term structure of oil risk premia prevails in average over the period. |
| Keywords: | oil market,oil price expectations,ex-ante risk premium JEL classification : D81 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03508699&r= |
| By: | Luis A. Mateos |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel idea on incorporating the Moon phases to the classic Gregorian (Solar) calendar time sampling methods for finding meaningful patterns in the stock markets. The four main Moon phases (New Moon, First quarter, Full Moon and Third quarter) are irregular in time but with well defined sampling structure as the Moon orbits the Earth completing its period. A Full Moon may appear in one month of the year on the 2nd, on the next month the Full moon may appear on the 4th and in the next ten years on the 13th of the same month. This structure which is irregular in time makes it interesting to study together with the stock market data. Moreover, the moon affects multiple physical things on the earth, such as the ocean tides, the behavior of living organisms as well as humans mood and decision when risking and investing. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15426&r= |
| By: | Yasuharu Shimamura (Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University); Satoshi Shimizutani (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development); Eiji Yamada (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a rural road improvement project on schooling decisions and youth employment in Morocco. Paved rural roads are expected to reduce travel time and costs, allowing additional school choices and increasing the motivation for youth to enter higher education in response to higher returns. On the other hand, immediate earnings opportunities created by new connections may encourage youth to seek paid employment. Thus, the impact of rural road improvement on schooling and youth employment warrants empirical investigation. We employ a difference-indifferences estimation using a household-level dataset with a five-year interval collected under a quasi-experimental setting. First, we do not observe any positive effect on primary school completion for either sex, but we find a positive and significant effect on secondary school attainment or above only for females. Moreover, the higher educational attainment of females is associated with a lower proportion of early marriage. Second, we do not observe any significant effects on self-employment for either sex, but we find a positive and significant effect on wage employment only for males, which is pronounced among the better educated. Our findings reveal sharp gendered differences in the impact of the rural road improvement project, with increased motivation toward better education for females and paid work for males. |
| Keywords: | rural road improvement, schooling outcomes, youth employment, market integration, Morocco, gender. |
| JEL: | I25 O18 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2022-001&r= |
| By: | Andrew Glover; Jonathan Heathcote; Dirk Krueger |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we ask how to best allocate a given time-varying supply of vaccines across individuals of different ages during the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic . Building on our previous heterogeneous household model of optimal economic mitigation and redistribution (Glover et al., 2021), we contrast the actual vaccine deployment path, which prioritized older, retired individuals, with one that first vaccinates younger workers. Vaccinating the old first saves more lives but slows the economic recovery, relative to inoculating the young first. Vaccines deliver large welfare benefits in both scenarios (relative to a world without vaccines), but the old-first policy is optimal under a utilitarian social welfare function. The welfare gains from having vaccinated the old first are especially significant once the economy is hit by a more infectious Delta variant in the summer of 2021. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Vaccination paths |
| JEL: | E63 E21 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93646&r= |
| By: | Julia M. Puaschunder (The New School, Department of Economics, School of Public Engagement, New York) |
| Abstract: | The Green New Deal (GND) is a governmental strategy to strengthen the United States economy and foster inclusive growth. The GND is targeted at sharing economic growth benefits more equally within society. How to align economic interest with justice and fairness notions is the question of our times when considering the massive challenges faced in terms of environmental challenges, healthcare demands and social justice pledges. First, this paper will outline what the GND is, how the GND is implemented and why it matters in its multiple implementation facets and international angles. Second, the Green New Deal will be presented as a possibility to make the world and society more equitable in the domains of environmental justice, access to affordable healthcare and social justice excellence. Ethical imperatives and equity mandates lead the economic rational behind redistribution in the GND as social peace, health and favorable environmental conditions are prerequisites for productivity. The GND offers hope in making the world and society but also overlapping generations more equitable and thus to bestow peace within society, around the world and over time. In answering the question if the GND is equitable, one has to acknowledge that the GND is a fairly novel phenomenon with international variations and diverse implementation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Access to Affordable Healthcare, Climate Change, Economics of the Environment, Environmental Justice, Environmental Governance, Green New Deal, Healthcare, Monetary Policy, Multiplier, Social Justice, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0051&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Lina (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | Fear is an important factor in decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Psychology research suggests that fear influences one’s risk attitude and fear may have important consequences for decisions concerning for example investments, crime, conflicts, and politics. I model strategic interactions between players who can be in either a neutral or a fearful state of mind. A player’s state of mind determines his or her utility function. The two main assumptions are that (i) fear is triggered by an increase in the probability or cost of negative outcomes and (ii) a player in the fearful state is more risk averse. A player’s beliefs over the probability and cost of negative outcomes determine how the player transitions between the states of mind. I use psychological game theory to analyze the role of fear in three applications, a robbery game, a bank run game, and a public health intervention. |
| Keywords: | emotions; fear; risk aversion; psychological game theory |
| JEL: | C72 D01 D91 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0819&r= |
| By: | Ioan-Gheorghe Rotaru (Timotheus Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Today's society is constantly evolving and it is not enough to learn just to become something for tomorrow, but it is necessary to be able to cope with the multiple demands of life. Humanity sees education as a practical, social, current and permanent issue, an indispensable tool for achieving the ideals of peace, freedom and social justice of a nation. If people aspire to a materially, socially and spiritually emancipated society, parents and teachers will find a way to make a common front together without excluding the child, helping him tactfully and gently to accumulate information, knowledge, but also to avoid many unpleasant events that can seriously mark him later in life. A properly educated child is a gain for society, and his education materializes both at home and in educational institutions. Education is and must be treated as a priority activity of society. High quality education is a necessity and that is why it must become a cornerstone of the society in which we live. |
| Keywords: | education, priority, educational system, formal education, non-formal education, informal education |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0109&r= |
| By: | Derstappen, Rebecca; Christoph-Schulz, Inken; Banse, Martin |
| Abstract: | Livestock farming and especially pig husbandry are controversially discussed in European society. As a result, the demand for higher animal welfare standards is rising. However, higher animal welfare standards imply higher production costs for farmers and other partners along the processing chain. Therefore, farmers are concerned about their future perspective. Since Germany is a net exporter for pork, the question arises, whether German pork produced under higher animal welfare standards might have a chance on foreign markets? Thus, within this study, four case studies for Poland, Italy, Japan and South Korea were selected to assess the possible export potential for German pork produced under higher animal welfare standards. Two survey methods were used: First, a market analysis to generate market information and second, interviews with market experts in all four countries to receive additional insider information regarding the respective pork market. The expert interviews were evaluated based on a qualitative content analysis. According to the interviewees the issue of animal welfare plays a distinct role in each country covered. Particularly large disparities have been observed regarding the attitude towards animal welfare in European and in Asian countries. Besides the aspect of animal welfare further criteria seem to be relevant for consumers. Therefore, purchasing criteria such as quality (in particular meat quality including colour, water capacity, freshness), taste, price and the country of origin have to be considered. These criteria already indicate a possible outcome of our analysis that the export potential of German pork produced under higher animal welfare standards varies depending on the individual target market. Therefore, multiple aspects and market data need to be analysed in order to understand the mechanism and speciality of foreign markets. Nevertheless, further research steps need to be carried out in order to be able to make a clearer statement regarding the export potential of German pork produced under higher animal welfare standards. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwp:319352&r= |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tilahun, Mesfin (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We analyze individual investment behavior among 822 young men and women that are members of 111 formal business groups in northern Ethiopia. We collected baseline data and investment data one year later combined with incentivized field experiments to obtain dis-aggregated risk preference data. We find that business women on average invest significantly less at individual level than business men but Cohen’s d values for the gender difference are moderate in size. Women are found to have higher Constant Relative Risk Aversion coefficients, to be more loss averse, but also to be more optimistic in their expectations than men. Women were also poorer in non-land assets, came from more land-poor parents and had lower incomes. The gender differences in risk attitudes and baseline endowments could explain some of but not all of the gender differences in investments. |
| Keywords: | Gender difference; Individual investment; Risk preferences; Prospect theory; Cohen’s d; Business groups; Northern Ethiopia |
| JEL: | C93 D90 |
| Date: | 2022–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Soares Martins Neto, Antonio (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Mathew, Nanditha (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Treibich, Tania (SBE, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the evidence of job polarization in developing countries. We carry out an extensive review of the existing empirical literature and examine the primary data sources and measures of routine intensity. The synthesis of results suggests that job polarization in emerging economies is only incipient compared to other advanced economies. We then examine the possible moderating aspects preventing job polarization, discussing the main theoretical channels and the existing empirical literature. Overall, the literature relates the lack of polarization as a natural consequence of limited technology adoption and the offshoring of routine, middle-earning jobs to some host developing economies. In turn, the limited technology adoption results from sub-optimal capabilities in those economies, including the insufficient supply of educated workers. Finally, we present the main gaps in the literature in developing economies and point to the need for more micro-level studies focusing on the impacts of tech- nology adoption on workers’ careers and studies exploring the adoption and use of technologies at the firm level. |
| Keywords: | Job polarization, Routine intensity, Skills, Developing countries |
| JEL: | J24 J63 O15 O33 E24 |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021045&r= |
| By: | F\'elix Lirio-Loli; William Dextre-Mart\'inez |
| Abstract: | Introduction: This study analyzes the scientific production in business administration in scientific articles based on modeling partial least squares structural equations (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling PLS-SEM) in the 2011-2020 period. Methodology: The study is exploratory - descriptive and has three phases: a) Selection of keywords and search criteria; (b) Search and refinement of information; c) information analysis. A method of bibliometric review of the specific literature has been used based on the analysis of predefined indicators and completed with a qualitative content synthesis. Results: A total of 167 publications were analyzed, making correlations from the year, search criteria, authors, impact factor by quartile, and by citation variables. More outstanding scientific production comes from Scopus under the search criteria ((pls AND sem) OR "partial least squares") AND (business OR management), being the figure of 4,870 scientific articles, while Web of Science accumulates 3,946 articles Conclusion: There has been a progressive growth in scientific articles with the PLS-SEM technique from 2011 to 2020. Scopus, compared to WoS, presents a more significant number of scientific productions with this statistical approach. The authors who register scientific articles demonstrate a high H index; in addition, there is an important number of scientific articles with a PLS-SEM approach in universities in Malaysia that could be related to the expansion of higher education in that country, as well as in Singapore, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Finally, business administration, accounting, and economics are outstanding scientific production. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02760&r= |
| By: | Walter Beckert (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Birkbeck, University of London); Paolo Siciliani (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies regulatory policy interventions aimed at protecting sticky consumers who are exposed to exploitation. We model heterogeneous consumer switching costs alongside asymmetric market shares. This setting encompasses many markets in which established ?rms are challenged by new entrants. We identify circumstances under which such interventions can be counterproductive, both with regard to the stated consumer protection objective and the complementary aim to promote competition. |
| Date: | 2021–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/10&r= |
| By: | Alison Andrew (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christine Farquharson (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lucy Kraftman (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sonya Krutikova (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Angus Phimister (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Almudena Sevilla (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the division of labour among parents of school-aged children in two-parent opposite-gender families. In line with existing evidence, we find that mothers' paid work took a larger hit than that of fathers, and that mothers spent substantially longer doing childcare and housework than their partners. We go further to show that these gender differences cannot be explained by gender differences in the industries and occupations in which parents worked prior to the lockdown. Nor can they be explained by gender differences in earnings prior to the crisis: independently of which parent earned the most before the pandemic, it is always mothers who adjusted time spent on paid and unpaid work more significantly. This is the case even in households where only one partner remained active in paid work. While we cannot fully rule out that these asymmetric responses are explained by gender differences in productivity in domestic work, our results do suggest that other factors, such as gender norms, may play an important role. |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/17&r= |
| By: | Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of St. Andrews); Zara Durrani (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Madhav Vaidyanathan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Zach White (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We implement a mixed method approach that combines a randomized controlled trial and qualitative data collection to assess whether, and if so how, behavioural change can be sustained. We do so in the context of Pakistan’s national sanitation strategy to combat open defecation, Community-Led Total Sanitation. Our findings demonstrate that continued follow-up activities, that build on the original intervention, reduced reversal to unsafe sanitation, but only where initial conditions are unfavourable —i.e. poor public infrastructure and low-quality sanitation facilities. Promotion efforts are hence best targeted towards those that face larger difficulties in constructing and maintaining high quality sanitation. |
| Date: | 2021–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/46&r= |
| By: | Mike G. Tsionas (School of Economics and Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (CEPA) at The University of Queensland, Australia); Valentin Zelenyuk (School of Economics and Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (CEPA) at The University of Queensland, Australia) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to develop formal tests for cost / profitt rationalization of observed data sets under measurement errors in both prices and quantities. The new techniques are based on new statistical formulations for inequalities that describe cost and pro t rationalizability, developed in a Bayesian framework. The new likelihood-based methods of inference are introduced and then illustrated using a data set of large U.S. banks. We also develop various robustness checks, including a normal and lognormal speci cation of the data generating process, as well as a multivariate mixture-of-normal-distributions. |
| Keywords: | Cost Minimization; Profit Maximization; Likelihood-based methods; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Banking. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uqcepa:173&r= |
| By: | Alderman, Harold; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Leight, Jessica; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Tambet, Heleene |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a significant threat to public health throughout most of the world as the coronavirus continues to spread, mostly unchecked by limited availability of vaccines, and largescale surges in cases are fed by new variants of the virus. In Ethiopia, surges in COVID-19 cases after months of apparently low levels of infection have periodically required renewed restrictions locally to control the spread of the virus. Thus, it is necessary to review available date to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on households in Ethiopia, and particularly on the poorest households, who are more vulnerable to protracted effects of the virus and associated restrictions on activity as a result of their limited resources. We present results of two rounds of a phone survey, conducted in June and August 2020, respectively, of around 1,200 rural households. All households in the sample are beneficiaries of the fourth phase of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP4) and also participate in the USAID-funded Strengthening PSNP4 Institutions and Resilience (SPIR) project, implemented by World Vision, CARE and ORDA in North Wollo and Wag Himra zones in Amhara, and primarily in East and West Hararghe zones in Oromia. The targeted phone survey respondents were adult males from sample households in IFPRI’s experimental impact evaluation of SPIR who provided a phone number during the 2019 midline survey. This is a subsample of the broader SPIR evaluation sample as 33% of households provided a phone number and thus were eligible for inclusion in the phone survey. Available evidence suggests that households who provided a phone number are characterized by higher socioeconomic status vis-Ã -vis other SPIR households in the study sample who did not provide a phone number. However, as all households in the phone survey are SPIR beneficiaries, they are still relatively poor in the broader context of rural Ethiopia. We report evidence from the two survey rounds on coronavirus awareness and protective measures taken; changes in livelihoods, including crop production and livestock raising; access to and utilization of markets; changes in food consumption and food security; experience with desert locusts and fall armyworms; and exposure to public programming. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, pandemics, rural areas, social safety nets, social protection, surveys, households, livelihoods, livestock, farming systems, markets, food security, food consumption, wellbeing |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:spirlb:5&r= |
| By: | Konda, Bruhan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); González‐Sauri, Mario (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Cowan, Robin (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Yashodha, Yashodha (International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), India); Chellattan Veettil, Prakashan (International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), India) |
| Abstract: | Most network studies in agriculture examine uni-dimensional connections between individuals to understand the effect of social networks on outcomes. However, in most real-world scenarios, network members' exchanges happen through multiple relationships and not accounting for such multi-dimensional interconnections may lead to biased estimate of social network effects. This study aims to unravel the consequences of not accounting such multidimensional networks by investigating the individual and joint effects of multiple connections (relationships) that exist among households on agricultural output. We use census data from three villages of Odisha, India that enables us to account for three types of relationships viz. information networks (knowledge sharing), credit networks (resource sharing) and friendship (social bonding) between households. We estimate the social network effect by combining both econometric (IV regression) and network (directed networks) techniques to address the problems of endogeneity. The joint effect of multiple networks is estimated using the multiplex network framework. We find that information flows are crucial to improve agricultural output when networks are accounted individually. However, the joint effect of all three networks using multiplex shows a significantly positive influence, indicating complementarity across relationships. In addition, we found evidence for the mediating role of interpersonal relationships (friendship network) in enhancing gains from the information flow. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture production, Social network, Multiplex networks, knowledge sharing, Resource sharing, Friendship |
| JEL: | C26 D83 O13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021030&r= |
| By: | Olivier de Bandt; Bora Durdu; Hibiki Ichiue; Yasin Mimir; Jolan Mohimont; Kalin Nikolov; Sigrid Roehrs; Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Valerio Scalone; Michael Straughan |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the different channels of transmission of prudential policy highlighted in the literature and provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of Basel III reforms using “off-the-shelf” DSGE models. It shows that the effects of regulation are positive on GDP whenever the costs and benefits of regulation are both introduced. However, this result may be associated with a temporary economic slowdown in the transition to Basel III, which can be accommodated by monetary policy. The assessment of liquidity requirements is still an area for research, as most models focus on costs, rather than on benefits, in particular in terms of lower contagion risk. |
| Keywords: | Basel III Reforms, DSGE Models, Solvency Requirements, Liquidity Requirements |
| JEL: | E3 E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:864&r= |
| By: | Daniel R. Carroll; Sewon Hur |
| Abstract: | We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce labor and capital income taxes and increase transfers, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth and low-income workers, while only wealthy households experience a welfare gain. |
| Keywords: | tariffs; inequality; consumption; welfare; taxation |
| JEL: | E21 F10 F62 H21 |
| Date: | 2022–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:93663&r= |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Nikitas Pittis (University of Piraeus, Greece); Angelos Plataniotis |
| Abstract: | Achieving climate neutrality dictated by international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Agenda 2030 and the European Green Deal, requires the conscription of all parts of society. The business world and especially large enterprises have a leading role in this effort. Businesses can contribute to this effort, by establishing a reporting and operating framework according to specific Environmental, Societal, Goovernance (ESG) criteria. The interest of companies in the ESG framework has become more intense in the recent years, as they recognize that appart from an improved reputation, ESG criteria can add value to them and help to become more effective in their functioning. However, especially large European companies, are legally obligated by the Non-Financial Reporting Directive (NFRD - Directive 2014/95/EU), to disclose non-financial information on how they deal with social and environmental issues. In the literature, there are discussions on what extent a good ESG-performance affects a company's profitability, valuation, capital efficiency and risk. The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically whether a relationship between good ESG performance and the good financial condition of companies can be documented. For a sample of the top-50 European companies in terms of ESG performance (STOXX 28 Europe ESG Leaders 50 Index), covering a wide range of sectors, namely Automobile, Consumer Products, Energy, Financial Services, Manufacturing etc., first, we reviewed their reportings to see which ESG framework they use to monitor their performance. Next, we examined whether there is a pattern of better financial performance if compared to other large European corporations. Our results show that such a connection seem to exist at least for some specific parameters, while for others such a claim cannot be supported. |
| Keywords: | ESG, STOXX Europe, Financial Performance, Capital Structure, Profitability, Valuation |
| Date: | 2022–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2209&r= |
| By: | Dimitrov, Kiril |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews emerging aspects of leadership in business organizations under the conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic as identified two levels of its realization – on an organizational one and individual one, cultural approach to leadership, pursuing leadership through human resources and appropriate communications, considering the opinions and experience of outstanding individuals in the business world. |
| Keywords: | Corporate culture,Crisis management,Personnel management,Natural Disasters and Their Management |
| JEL: | H12 M12 M14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:248860&r= |
| By: | Schlund, David (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Theile, Philipp (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen is viewed as a promising supplement in future energy systems with high penetration rates of renewable energy (RE) generation. As conversion technology between the two secondary energy carriers, hydrogen and electricity, particularly grid-connected electrolysers, have a role to play. During the market ramp-up, grid-connected electrolysers could cause unwanted side-effects through inducing additional CO2 emissions from the power sector. Since the reduction of CO2 remains the overall goal, a simultaneity obligation between RE generation and hydrogen production for the dispatch are being discussed to limit associated emissions from an electrolyser’s energy consumption. The paper presents a model framework including a mixed-integer linear program and a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation for stochastic electricity market prices to assess a grid-connected electrolyser’s dispatch. Within a case study representing the current state of the German electricity market, the effect of simultaneity on the electrolyser’s dispatch is assessed. The results show that the simultaneity reduces the CO2 emission intensity of hydrogen while constraining the profits from cost-optimal dispatch. The simultaneity represents implicit storage of the RE generation’s green characteristic, which allows the electrolyser to shift RE production to low price periods. Depending on the simultaneity interval, this affects both the average contribution margin and the risk of the electrolyser dispatch. Regulations aiming at the interface between hydrogen and electricity must consider the trade-off between the economic viability of electrolysers, full load hours, and the associated emissions of electricity-basedhydrogen. |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen; Power-to-Gas; Renewable Energy Support; Optimisation |
| JEL: | C61 L51 M20 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2021_010&r= |
| By: | Julian Martinez-Iriarte; Gabriel Montes-Rojas; Yixiao Sun |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an extension of the unconditional quantile regression analysis to (i) location-scale shifts, and (ii) compensated shifts. The first case is intended to study a counterfactual policy analysis aimed at increasing not only the mean or location of a covariate but also its dispersion or scale. The compensated shift refers to a situation where a shift in a covariate is compensated at a certain rate by another covariate. Not accounting for these possible scale or compensated effects will result in an incorrect assessment of the potential policy effects on the quantiles of an outcome variable. More general interventions and compensated shifts are also considered. The unconditional policy parameters are estimated with simple semi-parametric estimators, for which asymptotic properties are studied. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to study their finite sample performances, and the proposed approach is applied to a Mincer equation to study the effects of a location-scale shift in education on the unconditional quantiles of wages. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02292&r= |
| By: | Lorenzo Cherubini (Brock University, Ontario, Canada) |
| Abstract: | This presentation discusses the third and final component of a multi-dimensional study using a distinct learner-centred Problem-Based Learning (PBL) model that invites prospective teachers to collaborate in small groups on inquiry-driven projects that deepen their appreciation of critical literacy. The literature attests to the success of PBL environments where student participation in peer-to-peer discussions furthers more sophisticated capacities to actively process new information. The PBL model is a core component of a mandatory third-year undergraduate concurrent Education course of study for all students enrolled in the Intermediate/Senior program (qualifications to teach grades 7 to 12). Each peer-group, consisting of four to five students, scripts and records a video presentation that accounts for the implications of a case-based dilemma. The PBL model is meant to promote prospective teachers’ proficiency to meaningfully translate their understanding of the inquiry-problem as it applies to a broad range of topics and competencies. Consistent with the first two components of the larger study, the PBL instructional approach aims to scaffold prospective teachers’ awareness of certain concepts in the broader context of critical literacy. Consequently, the critical literacy framework represents the theoretical basis that positions prospective teachers to be increasingly aware of the implications of ethnic, religious, and socio-economic diversity on case-based teachers and students. |
| Keywords: | critical literacy, prospective teacher development |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0083&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper opens up a study of deficit financing and management of the public debt in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines. Borrowings of the national government from the monetary authority and from domestic and international financial markets, as well as the options for exiting from the public debt enlarged by such borrowings are assessed. At this juncture, public spending to strengthen social safety nets for truly disadvantaged families and firms are imperatives, but taxation that relieves big corporations and shifts to households and small firms the recovery of foregone corporate income taxes through burdensome indirect taxes must be shunned. Meanwhile, growing out of the public debt through sound monetary policy and structural reforms that embrace rise in total factor productivity is the least painful option to exit out of the newly expanded public debt. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; public debt management; deficit financing; Philippines |
| JEL: | E5 O4 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202011&r= |
| By: | Gulati, Karan (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Karthik Suresh (University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to measure and understand the performance of Indian financial sector regulators vis-a-vis grievance redress. This is based on learnings from international best practices. It looks at the structure and policy apparatus of redress systems of financial regulators and the challenges consumers face while accessing them. Regulators differ in their approaches to grievance redress mechanisms, face conflicts of interest,and follow complicated processes. They also take too long to resolve grievances and do not have a defined point of closure. The regulations are often not accessible to consumers, and when they are, they are difficult to understand. This implies a need to simplify the procedure, better inform consumers, and include enforcement provisions to enable greater grievance redress. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/364&r= |
| By: | ElDidi, Hagar; van Biljon, Chloe; Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Ringler, Claudia; Ratna, Nazmun; Abdulrahim, Sawsan; Kilby, Patrick; Wu, Joyce; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arefin |
| Abstract: | Millions of female migrants experience various forms of exploitative and unsafe conditions when migrating for employment and income generation, both in countries of origin and in destination countries. Vulnerabilities increased further due to the Covid-19 pandemic, causing income and job losses, entrapment in countries of destination without financial or social support and stigmatization upon return. One of the key migration routes travelled by millions of migrants is from South Asia to the Middle East. We examine this migration route for low-skilled female migrant workers highlighting the impacts of interventions along the migration pathway to determine the effectiveness of alternative mechanisms for reducing forced labour and trafficking. We draw lessons from the literature as well as from interviews with key informants in the field, including academics, development partners, NGO workers, and policymakers, to identify promising interventions that successfully reduce the vulnerability of women migrants. We find that, while Covid-19 has increased migrant vulnerability, it has also exposed the current system’s violations in facilitating trafficking and exacerbating poor working conditions. |
| Keywords: | SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; MIDDLE EAST; AFRICA; labour; forced labour; migration; women; vulnerability; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; migrant labour; working conditions; policies; labour trafficking; low-skilled work |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2049&r= |
| By: | Alex Armand (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Nova School of Business and Economics); Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of St. Andrews) |
| Abstract: | Poorly maintained public infrastructure is common in low- and middle-income countries, with consequences for service delivery and public health. By experimentally identifying the impact of incentives for local maintenance for both providers and potential users, this paper provides one of the ?rst economic analyses of provider–user dynamics in the presence of local coordination failure. Focusing on shared sanitation facilities for slum residents in two major Indian cities, we randomly allocate facilities to either a control or two treatments. The ?rst treatment incentivizes maintenance of the facility among providers, while the second treatment adds a sensitization campaign about the returns of a well-maintained facility among potential users. Using surveys, behavioral and objective measurements for both providers and potential users, we show that incentivizing maintenance does not favor collective action. The treatments raise the quality of facilities and reduce free riding, but at the cost of user selection. Providers improve routine maintenance, but also respond strategically to the newly-introduced incentives. While slum residents’ private willingness to pay and cooperation are unaffected, their demand for public intervention increases. The second treatment raises aware-ness, but does not affect behavior. |
| Date: | 2021–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/16&r= |
| By: | D.J. da Cunha Batista Geraldes; Franziska Heinicke; Duk Gyoo Kim |
| Abstract: | Lying involves many decisions yielding big or small benefits. Are big and small lies complementary or supplementary? In a laboratory experiment where the participants could simultaneously tell a big and a small lie, our study finds that lies are complementary. The participants who lie more in the big lie, also do so in the small lie and vice versa. Our study also finds that although replacing one dimension of the lying opportunities with a randomly determined prize does not affect the overall lying behavior, repeatedly being lucky on a high-stakes prize leads to less lying on the report of a low-stakes outcome. |
| Keywords: | laboratory experiment, lying, luck, honesty |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2103&r= |
| By: | Elisa Macchi |
| Abstract: | I study the economic value of obesity—a seemingly inconsequential but unhealthy status symbol in poor countries. Randomizing decision-makers in Kampala, Uganda to view weight-manipulated portraits, I make four findings. First, obesity is perceived as a reliable signal of wealth rather than beauty and health. Second, being obese facilitates access to credit: in a real-stakes experiment involving loan officers, the obesity premium is comparable to raising borrower self-reported earnings by 60%. Third, asymmetric information drives this premium, which drops significantly when more financial information is provided. Fourth, obesity benefits and wealth-signaling value are commonly overestimated, raising the cost of healthy behaviors. |
| Keywords: | Obesity, status, asymmetric information |
| JEL: | I10 O10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:401&r= |
| By: | Dylan Herman; Cody Googin; Xiaoyuan Liu; Alexey Galda; Ilya Safro; Yue Sun; Marco Pistoia; Yuri Alexeev |
| Abstract: | Quantum computers are expected to surpass the computational capabilities of classical computers during this decade and have transformative impact on numerous industry sectors, particularly finance. In fact, finance is estimated to be the first industry sector to benefit from quantum computing, not only in the medium and long terms, but even in the short term. This survey paper presents a comprehensive summary of the state of the art of quantum computing for financial applications, with particular emphasis on Monte Carlo integration, optimization, and machine learning, showing how these solutions, adapted to work on a quantum computer, can help solve more efficiently and accurately problems such as derivative pricing, risk analysis, portfolio optimization, natural language processing, and fraud detection. We also discuss the feasibility of these algorithms on near-term quantum computers with various hardware implementations and demonstrate how they relate to a wide range of use cases in finance. We hope this article will not only serve as a reference for academic researchers and industry practitioners but also inspire new ideas for future research. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02773&r= |
| By: | Kilders, Valerie; Lineback, Caitlinn; Malone, Trey; Caputo, Vincenzina; McKendree, Melissa G.S. |
| Abstract: | The overall project goal is to gain a better understanding of consumer demand and preferences for tart cherry products to provide meaningful insights to producers, retailers, and marketers working on the promotion of tart cherry products. To achieve this goal, we conducted a nationwide online survey of 1,235 U.S. consumers in July 2019. We collected a variety of insights on the current tart cherry consumer landscape by asking questions about respondent’s socio-demographics, their consumption, dietary and expenditure habits, their knowledge and awareness of tart cherries and derivate products, as well as respondents’ preferences for local food products and their ethnocentric tendencies. In addition, the survey included two discrete choice experiments on tart cherry juice selection, which were designed to enhance our understanding of (i) what attributes are important to consumers when purchasing tart cherry juice, and (ii) how tart cherry juice performs relative to other juice and soft drink alternatives available in the market. Results suggest that tart cherry consumers systematically differ from non-tart cherry consumers. Our key findings are: 1. Around 56% of respondents consumed either fresh or dried tart cherries and/or tart cherry juice in the last three (3) months. Among those tart cherry consumers almost 50% are 25-44 years old compared to non-consumers, where 40% are 45-64 years old. Tart cherry consumers are also more likely to have children and at least three members in their household, which could indicate that tart cherry consumers tend to be adults with younger children. 2. Those respondents that can be classified as tart cherry consumers consume generally more fruit and fruit derivative products. They also tend to place a higher budget share towards purchasing fruits and vegetables compared to their counterparts. This occurs in conjunction with around 33% of tart cherry consumers following a partially meat and/or animal free diet vs. only 13% of non-tart cherry consumers. 3. The main attributes respondents value more when purchasing tart cherry juice are taste, nutrition, price, safety, and naturalness, with non-consumers putting greater relative importance on all of these attributes than tart cherry consumers except for naturalness. The higher relative importance of nutrition for non-consumers is also reflected in a significantly higher premium they are willing to pay to avoid added sugar in tart cherry juice compared to tart cherry consumers ($0.49 vs. $0.61 per 8 oz bottle). 4. Outside of the main production areas in Michigan and Washington, respondents were uncertain about where tart cherries are produced but are on average willing to pay a premium of around $0.25 per 8 oz bottle for tart cherry juice made in the United States. 5. While non-tart cherry consumers have an overall higher willingness-to-pay (WTP) for different beverage options, the difference in marginal WTP between the juice alternatives is substantially smaller than for tart cherry consumers. Jointly these results demonstrate that existing consumers of tart cherries and non-tart cherry consumers differ from one another in various dimensions. These should be taken into consideration when marketing and promoting tart cherries and their derivative products. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midasp:317810&r= |
| By: | Mühlbauer, Sabrina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This paper develops a large-scale application to improve the labour market matching process with model- and algorithm-based statistical methods. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies covering individual and job-related information of workers in Germany. We estimate the probability that a job seeker gets employed in a certain occupational field. For this purpose, we make predictions with common statistical methods and machine learning (ML) methods. The findings suggest that ML performs better than the other methods regarding the out-of-sample classification error. In terms of the unemployment rate, the advantage of ML would stand for a difference of 2.9 - 3.6 percentage points." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | C14 C45 J64 C55 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202203&r= |
| By: | Margherita Fort; Andrea Ichino; Enrico Rettore; Giulio Zanella |
| Abstract: | In RD designs with multiple cutoffs, the identification of an average causal effect across cutoffs may be problematic if a marginally exposed subject is located exactly at each cutoff. This occurs whenever a fixed number of treatment slots is allocated starting from the subject with the highest (or lowest) value of the score, until exhaustion. Exploiting the “within” variability at each cutoff is the safest and likely efficient option. Alternative strategies exist, but they do not always guarantee identification of a meaningful causal effect and are less precise. To illustrate our findings, we revisit the study of Pop-Eleches and Urquiola (2013). |
| Keywords: | Regression Discontinuity, Multiple Cutoffs, Normalizing and Pooling |
| JEL: | C01 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Renato E. Reside, Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This short piece discusses the results of simple regression analysis using cross country data to determine the factors that have influenced fluctuations in real output during the covid-19 pandemic period. Focus is on explaining not only output growth from 2020 to the first half of 2021, but also the length or duration of recessions. The most prominent factors influencing growth include the ability of a country to contain the spread of infections and vaccinate their population. The size of the covid19-induced fiscal stimulus, also matters, especially health care spending. However, the relationship is nonlinear. Beyond a certain point, fiscal spending leads to lower quarterly growth. Policy recommendations are given. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, fiscal policy, government expenditures, covid19, crisis management |
| JEL: | E6 E62 E65 H11 H12 H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202108&r= |
| By: | Merkl, Christian; Sauerbier, Timo |
| Abstract: | Our paper aims at improving the understanding for the role of public employment agencies in job matching. We analyze the effects of the restructuring of the Federal Employment Agency in Germany (Hartz III labor market reform) for aggregate matching and unemployment. Based on two microeconomic datasets, we show that the market share of the Federal Employment Agency as job intermediary declined after the Hartzreforms. We propose a macroeconomic model of the labor market with a private and a public search channel and fit the model to various dimensions of the data. We show that direct intermediation activities of the Federal Employment Agency did not contribute to the decline of unemployment in Germany. By contrast, improved activation of unemployed workers reduced unemployed by 0.7 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Hartz reforms,search and matching,reform of employment agency |
| JEL: | E24 E00 E60 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:012022&r= |
| By: | Meinen, Philipp; Soares, Ana Cristina |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of financial frictions on markup adjustments at the firm level. We use a rich panel data set that matches information on banking relationships with firm-level data. By relying on insights from recent contributions in the literature, we obtain exogenous credit supply shifters and markups that are both firm specific and time varying. We uncover new findings at this level. In particular, firms more exposed to liquidity risks tend to raise markups in response to negative bank-loan supply shocks, while less exposed firms generally reduce them. Further empirical analyses suggest that our findings are mostly consistent with models featuring a sticky customer base, where financially constrained firms have an incentive to raise markups in order to sustain liquidity. Our results have important economic implications regarding the cyclicality of the aggregate markup. |
| Keywords: | Financial Shocks,Markups,Firm-level data |
| JEL: | L22 L11 D22 G10 G01 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:542021&r= |
| By: | Severin Reissl; Alessandro Caiani; Francesco Lamperti; Tommaso Ferraresi; Leonardo Ghezzi |
| Abstract: | We extend the regional input-output model for the economic impact assessment of Covid-19 lockdowns in Italy proposed in Reissl et al. (2021) by incorporating the effects of changes in mobility on the level and composition of consumption demand. We estimate the model on sectoral data for 2020 and perform an out-of-sample validation exercise for the first half of 2021, finding that the model performs well. We then evaluate the relative importance of demand- and supply-side factors in determining our simulation results. During the national lockdown of spring 2020 the impacts of supply-side (labor) shocks can account for the vast majority of output losses. In the following stages of the epidemic income and mobility-related effects on final demand play pivotal roles at the aggregate and regional levels, as well as for most sectors. While policies supporting demand may hence be appropriate, their effectiveness may be hampered when demand is chiefly restrained by the mobility-related effect, and not by income. |
| Keywords: | Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy; Demand and Supply Shocks. |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2022/04&r= |
| By: | 岡本, 和久; Okamoto, Kazuhisa; 孫, 彦鵬; Sun, Yanpeng |
| Abstract: | 本研究は，圧倒的な競争地位を有していた既存企業が，後発企業によって逆転されるプロセスを，既存企業間の競争がもたらす影響を勘案して検討している。中国のシェアサイクル産業の事例分析の結果，①既存企業間の競争によって引き起こされた周辺プレーヤーの対応行動によって後発企業の成長余地がもたされうること，②既存企業が他の既存企業への対応を優先するあまり，後発企業への対応が不十分になりうることが明らかになった。, Prior studies have shown that the basic cause of the latecomer's reversal of an incumbents’ dominant competitive position is its internal organizational processes and fixed relationships with its business partners. However, when there is competition among incumbents in a product market, the competitive relationship among incumbents will also affect the way the incumbents respond to the latecomer. This study examines the above issues through a case study analysis of China's shared- cycle industry from 2016 to 2018. This study revealed the following two points. First, the competitive behavior among incumbents triggered the response behavior of the latecomer and the government which created an unexpected market environment for the incumbents and created room for the latecomer to grow. Second, the incumbents were so caught up in competition with other incumbents that they neglected to respond to the latecomer. |
| Keywords: | 既存企業, 後発企業, 相互作用, 対応, 逆転, Incumbent, Latecomer, Interaction, Response, Reversal |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hmicwp:247&r= |
| By: | Balde, Racky (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Lack of fiscal space in sub-Saharan Africa is a major preoccupation, particularly in the context of shocks. The majority of firms in the region are primarily in the informal sector and consequently do not pay taxes. This paper explores the effect of financial development on small firms’ compliance with value-added tax, profit tax and local tax. It equally explores the mitigating impact of informal finance on financial development’s role in driving small firms’ tax compliance. To demonstrate this, we estimate a recursive trivariate probit model. The results show that financial development increases the likelihood of firms being tax compliant. In contrast, access to informal finance decreases that likelihood. It also emerges that the lower the taxes, the greater the effects of low costs of banks on tax compliance. Another finding is that informal finance mitigates the effect of financial development on small firms’ tax compliance. |
| Keywords: | taxation, Africa, financial development, informal finance, informal economy |
| JEL: | D22 E26 H26 |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021041&r= |
| By: | Jolex, Aubrey; Benson, Todd |
| Abstract: | By directing increasing shares of their farm production to the market and, thereby, realizing greater incomes, farming households can accelerate local rural economic development. In this study, we examine household and spatial factors that may drive smallholder farming households in Malawi to produce and sell maize, groundnut, and soyabean. Two cross-sectional analyses are done using household level data from rounds of the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS). First, using data for farming households from the fifth IHS (2019/20) in a series of weighted logistical models, we examine which of a set of household and spatial level factors are associated with a household producing each of the three crops. For maize and groundnut, we extend the analysis by similarly identifying the factors associated with whether a producing household sells any of their maize or groundnut, and if, they do, whether they sell more than half of their harvest. The second analysis consists of replicating the logistical models for production and sales using household data from the fourth IHS (2016/17) and comparing those results to the results obtained from the fifth IHS. This is done to identify whether any drivers of the production and sale of the three crops are changing over time. Overall, only a few factors are consistently associated with a farming household choosing to produce a particular crop or to sell part of their production of the crop. We also see limited changes between 2016/17 and 2019/20 in the drivers of the production and sale of these crops. However, the strength of the positive associations between landholding size and the commercial production of the three crops intensified between the two surveys. This suggests that as landholdings become smaller with continuing population growth, commercial production will increasingly be limited to those households with the largest landholdings. Government and other stakeholders in rural economic development can consider the evidence from these analyses in developing strategies to foster greater diversity in employment in rural economies across Malawi away from agriculture, while nonetheless promoting increased production by those smallholders in a position to participate profitably in the value chains for these crops. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agricultural production; maize; groundnuts; soybeans; farmers; households; agricultural development; rural economics; commercialization |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspp:38&r= |
| By: | Baye, Kaleab; Abay, Mehari Hiluf; Berhane, Guush; Chamberlin, Jordan |
| Abstract: | We examine the implication of the Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) in Ethiopia on the economic resilience of rural households. Using five-rounds of household panel data covering nine years, we implement a recently developed probabilistic moment-based approach to measure resilience and evaluate the role of PSNP transfers and duration of participation in PSNP on household resilience. We document three important findings. First, although PSNP transfers are positively strongly associated with resilience, we find that transfers below the median are less likely to generate meaningful improvements in resilience. Second, continuous participation in PSNP is associated with higher resilience. Third, our evaluation of both short-term welfare outcomes and longer-term resilience suggests that these outcomes are likely to be driven by different factors. These findings suggest boosting household resilience will require significant investments in social protection programs and continuous participation in these programs. Our findings have important implications for the design and targeting of social protection programs in Africa, where safety nets programs generally operate at small scale with small transfers to beneficiaries over relatively short durations. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; social protection; resilience; households; social safety nets; poverty; cash transfers; Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:essprn:76&r= |
| By: | Sven Otto; Nazarii Salish |
| Abstract: | A functional dynamic factor model for time-dependent functional data is proposed. We decompose a functional time series into a predictive low-dimensional common component consisting of a finite number of factors and an infinite-dimensional idiosyncratic component that has no predictive power. The conditions under which all model parameters, including the number of factors, become identifiable are discussed. Our identification results lead to a simple-to-use two-stage estimation procedure based on functional principal components. As part of our estimation procedure, we solve the separation problem between the common and idiosyncratic functional components. In particular, we obtain a consistent information criterion that provides joint estimates of the number of factors and dynamic lags of the common component. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our method in a simulation study and to the problem of modeling and predicting yield curves. In an out-of-sample experiment, we demonstrate that our model performs well compared to the widely used term structure Nelson-Siegel model for yield curves. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02532&r= |
| By: | von Grafenstein, Liza; Iweala, Sarah; Ruml, Anette |
| Abstract: | To learn about the role of information content and source as catalysts to increase consumers’ valuation of fairly traded foods, we conducted an online survey with 2,500 consumers representative of the German population. Within the online survey, respondents were randomly assigned to one of five information treatments or the control group. We employ the contingent valuation approach to measure the willingness-to-pay (WTP) premium for chocolate with the Fairtrade label compared to similar conventional chocolate. To estimate WTP and the outcome which measures the participants’ purchasing intentions, we use ordinary least squares and interval regressions. We find that German consumers are willing to pay a high price premium for a Fairtrade label despite limited knowledge about the certification. This WTP is relatively robust to additional supportive information provision irrespective of the information source. However, the broader measure of behavior, the purchasing intention, can rise due to information provided by a retailer or the government. While a supportive statement by a university does not seem to incentivize the valuation of Fairtrade certified chocolate, we find that an unsupportive (zero effect) statement of the same source can discourage the purchasing intention. Our findings imply that policymakers and scientists need to mind the risk of generalized science communication and create information campaigns to increase purchasing frequency. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:317123&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Mandras (European Commission - JRC); Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The European Commission is working in order to ensure a smooth transition to cleaner forms of energy production away from fossil fuels in order to meet the EU objective of reaching climate neutrality by 2050. The Just Transition Mechanism was launched to manage this transition, under the European Green Deal. A key information needed to do that is the number of workers who will be impacted by the ongoing decarbonisation process. This technical report contains the RHOMOLO-IO estimates of the number of jobs indirectly related to the energy production industry of coal, peat, and oil shale. These activities directly employ more than 200,000 workers in the EU, and our results suggest that about 140,000 additional jobs are indirectly related to those. This is a significant number that should be considered by the policy makers dealing with the shift away from energy production with fossil fuels. |
| Keywords: | region, growth, Rhomolo, indirect jobs, coal, input-output analysis. |
| JEL: | C68 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202111&r= |
| By: | Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin); Áureo de Paula (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We study consumer spending dynamics during the first infection wave of the COVID-19 pandemic using household scanner data covering fast-moving consumer goods in the United Kingdom. We document a large spike in spending for storable products, such as food staples and household supplies, in the days before lockdown. Demand increases were concentrated in 30 of 138 product categories, e.g. soap, soup, canned goods and dried pasta. Households in all socioeconomic groups exhibit unusually high demand pre-lockdown, but there is a clear gradient, with the largest demand spikes for wealthier households. Although stories of people purchasing extreme amounts received a lot of attention, higher aggregate demand was mainly driven by more households than usual choosing to buy storable products, with only small increases in average quantities bought on a given trip. Temporary limits on the number of units per transaction, introduced following the demand spike, are therefore unlikely to lead to the avoidance of stock-outs. Given rapidly increasing case numbers in the ongoing second wave, and the spectre of further national lockdowns, our work provides timely evidence for preparing for a future demand spike. |
| Date: | 2020–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/34&r= |
| By: | Remi Jedwab (George Washington University); Roberto Samaniego (George Washington University); Paul Romer (NYU Stern); Asif Islam (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Pandemic shocks disrupt human capital accumulation through schooling and work experience. This study quantifies the long-term economic impact of these disruptions in the case of COVID-19, focusing on countries at different levels of development and using returns to education and experience by college status that are globally estimated using 1,084 household surveys across 145 countries. The results show that both lost schooling and experience contribute to significant losses in global learning and output. Developed countries incur greater losses than developing countries, because they have more schooling to start with and higher returns to experience. The returns to education and experience are also separately estimated for men and women, to explore the differential effects by gender of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surprisingly, while we uncover gender differences in returns to education and schooling, gender differences in the impact of COVID-19 are small and short-lived, with a loss in female relative income of only 2.5 percent or less mainly due to the greater severity of the employment shock on impact. These findings might challenge some of the ongoing narratives in policy circles. The methodology employed in this study is easily implementable for future pandemics. |
| Keywords: | Pandemics; Human Capital; Returns to Education; Returns to Experience; Gender; Female Relative Income; Labor Markets; Development Accounting; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | O11 O12 O15 E24 J11 J16 J17 J31 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2022-02&r= |
| By: | Iuri H. Ferreira; Marcelo C. Medeiros |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the relation between market returns and volatility measures through machine learning methods in a high-frequency environment. We implement a minute-by-minute rolling window intraday estimation method using two nonlinear models: Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Random Forests (RF). Our estimations show that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the strongest candidate predictor for intraday market returns in our analysis, specially when implemented through the LSTM model. This model also improves significantly the performance of the lagged market return as predictive variable. Finally, intraday RF estimation outputs indicate that there is no performance improvement with this method, and it may even worsen the results in some cases. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15108&r= |
| By: | Gara Afonso; Lorie Logan; Antoine Martin; Will Riordan; Patricia Zobel |
| Abstract: | Daily take-up at the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility increased from less than $1 billion in early March 2021 to just under $2 trillion on December 31, 2021. In the second post in this series, we take a closer look at this important tool in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy implementation framework and discuss the factors behind the recent increase in volume. |
| Keywords: | overnight reverse repo (ON RRP); monetary policy implementation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93613&r= |
| By: | Christian Voegtlin (Audencia Business School); Andreas Scherer; Günter Stahl; Olga Hawn |
| Abstract: | Grand societal challenges (GSCs) represent complex, multi-level, multi-dimensional problems that require concerted efforts by various actors-public, private, and non-profit-to be successfully addressed. Businesses-alone or in conjunction with governmental and nonprofit organizations-are relevant actors in this regard, as they represent a source of innovation. Responsible innovation (RI) is a framework that allows for the governance and evaluation of innovations with regard to their potential harmful consequences and positive contributions to societal challenges. Moreover, it stipulates that this evaluation process should be facilitated by appropriate governance structures at various levels. The aim of this article is to expand theorizing on GSCs and RI and to encourage research that explores their links. We outline pertinent characteristics of GSCs that make current conceptualizations of corporate social responsibility and social innovation limited in addressing GSCs. We explicate the reflexive and participative capacities of RI governance as a complementary and promising way forward. Finally, we introduce the contributions to this Special Issue as illustrations of relevant theoretical and empirical groundwork around GSCs and RI, and outline the agenda for future research. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,sustainable development,deliberation,global and corporate governance,responsible innovation,Grand societal challenges |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03466563&r= |
| By: | Michael P Keane (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of New South Wales (UNSW)); Sonya Krutikova (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Timothy Neal (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of child work on cognitive development in four Low- and Middle-Income Countries. We advance the literature by using cognitive test scores collected regardless of school attendance. We also address a key gap in the literature by controlling for children’s complete time allocation budget. This allows us to estimate effects of different types of work, like chores and market/farm work, relative to specific alternative time-uses, like school or study or play/leisure. Our results show child work is more detrimental to child development to the extent that it crowds out school/study time rather than leisure. We also show the adverse effect of time spent on domestic chores is similar to time spent on market and farm work, provided they both crowd out school/study time. Thus, policies to enhance child development should target a shift from all forms of work toward educational activities. |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/36&r= |
| By: | Johannes König; Maximilian Longmuir |
| Abstract: | From standard portfolio-choice theory it is well-understood that background risk, overwhelmingly due to wage risk, is one of the central determinants of individuals’ portfolio composition: higher background risk reduces risky investments. However, if background risk is negatively correlated with financial market risk, higher background risk implies more risky investment. We quantify the influence of wage risk on German investors’ financial portfolio shares and find that an increase of the residual variance of wages by one standard deviation implies a reduction of the financial portfolio share by 3 percentage points. We do not find that the correlation of wage risk with financial market risk has a significant impact on portfolio choice and provide evidence that this may be due to a lack of salience. |
| Keywords: | Background risk, portfolio choice, household portfolios, investment behavior |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1974&r= |
| By: | Valentina Suarez (Columbia University); Jason McGrath (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Promoting and supporting the development of strong professional identities in teachers is relevant to teachers, policy makers and the research community. The benefits of examining Teacher Professional Identity (TPI) relate to success for students in their learning, long-term empowerment of teachers in their professional work, and support for effective policy development. This paper provides a scan and examination of the research and the OECD international data sets to propose a TPI Development and Outcome model and consider implications for practice, policy and research. Increased attention to understanding and developing individual and collective TPI provides a positive and feasible approach in a time of change . |
| Date: | 2022–02–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:267-en&r= |
| By: | Gaston Yalonetzky (University of Leeds); Suman Seth (University of Leeds); Inaki Permanyer (ICREA Centre d'Estudis Demogrà fics) |
| Abstract: | Numerous non-pecuniary variables of interest for inequality assessment are bounded and often represented in terms of attainments or shortfalls. Inequality measurement for bounded variables suffers from two key challenges: the consistency problem and the boundary problem. The former occurs when inequality rankings reverse while switching between attainment and shortfall representations. The latter stems from the existence of a predictable functional relationship between mean attainment and maximum feasible inequality hindering inequality comparisons across distributions with different means. Unlike consistency, the boundary problem has not received significant attention in the literature. We propose two novel classes of normalized inequality measures that are immune to both problems. We illustrate the empirical relevance ofour approach with cross-country comparisons of inequality in well-established indicators of education and health. A starkly different picture emerges when traditional inequality indices give way to our normalized inequality indices. |
| Keywords: | Inequality measurement, bounded variables, boundary problem, consistency, Kuznets curves. |
| JEL: | D63 I31 O57 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2022-602&r= |
| By: | Lea, Jon; Harvey, John; Saboori, Arash; Butt, Ali Azhar |
| Abstract: | The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has a growing need to be able to quantify its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the other environmental impacts of pavement operations, and to consider GHG and those other impacts in pavement management, conceptual design, design, materials selection, and construction project delivery decisions. Caltrans also needs to be able to evaluate the life cycle environmental impacts as part of policy and standards development. All these tasks can be performed using life cycle assessment (LCA), although there are different constraints and requirements with respect to the scope of the LCA and the data available for each of these different applications. The web-based software environmental Life Cycle Assessment for Pavements (eLCAP) is a project-level LCA tool that uses California- and Caltrans-specific life cycle inventories (LCIs) and processes. The LCI database has been critically reviewed by outside experts following ISO standards. eLCAP models the life cycle history of a pavement project by allowing a user to specify any number of construction-type events, occurring at a user-specified date, followed by an automatically generated Use Stage event that begins immediately afterward and lasts until the next construction-type event or the end-of-life date. The Use Stage models currently consider the effects of roughness in terms of International Roughness Index and use the same performance models that are used in the Caltrans pavement asset management system software, PaveM. eLCAP performs a formal mass-balancing procedure on a pavement LCA project model and then computes 18 different impact category values—including Global Warming Potential, Human Health Particulate Air, Acidification, and different forms of Primary Energy—and generates a detailed Excel report file to display graphs and tables of results. The results can be presented in terms of life cycle stage, material types, and other details. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0b9635gm&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After a third wave over the summer, COVID-19 cases are declining but vaccination has stalled. Economic activity has improved on the back of strengthened external demand, allowing for a stronger-than-envisaged buildup in international reserves. Inflation and the exchange rate have stabilized. Near-term challenges arise from uncertainty related to the pandemic and the gradual global economic recovery supporting high commodity prices. |
| Date: | 2022–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/003&r= |
| By: | Richard Adu-Gyamfi (Research Africa Network, Botswana); John Kuada (Aalborg University, Denmark); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | It is a well-established practice of many Sub-Sahara African (SSA) governments to aid entrepreneurs within both the formal and informal sectors in order to enhance their performance and growth. Unfortunately, there is no agreed method by which governments can differentiate between entrepreneurs and target them with the appropriate promotion policies. Thus, despite the good intentions, entrepreneurship policy initiatives have been incorrectly targeted, poorly implemented and without the desired results, since different entrepreneurs may require different forms of assistance. Some scholars have suggested that without a context-specific classificatory guide, policymakers are unlikely to be accurate in their assessment of the growth capabilities of prospective candidates for specific promotion initiatives and this can explain some of the policy failures. This observation has motivated the present paper. Our objective is to provide a framework that helps identify the different contextual dimensions influencing formal and informal enterprise creation processes in SSA. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; formal; informal; Africa |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/015&r= |
| By: | Elena Roxana Visan (National School of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Due to the multiple roles held within the social system, the public administration field is positioned in the service of the citizen, and through its entire activity interferes with the political, economic and socio-cultural dimensions, where the beneficiary becomes the goal and not the means. It is thus understood that public administration has significance only in interaction with parts of the social system. An important part of the social system, which is in direct line with the public administration, is education, due to its public service performance. Under these conditions, education becomes a service of public interest, where the educational policy is ensured through the specialized public administration. What is the role and how the administration involved in the realization of the public education service is, are questions generating the depth of knowledge at the empirical level in this undertaken approach. |
| Keywords: | public administration, social system, public education service, responsibility. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0106&r= |
| By: | Elena Bellio (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Francesca Checchinato (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | Purpose. Hashtags are important in enriching the content of posts and in obtaining more engagement (Messina, 2007). This study aims at analysing the impact of the combination of the small destination name hashtags with hashtags mentioning the wider destination area by answering at the following research questions: (RQ1) What are the territorial hashtags used in the small destinations’ pictures capture? (RQ2) Do the mentions of the wider area through territorial hashtags impact on small destination post’s engagement? Methods.Based on hashtags’ destination names, a sample of 13,217 posts of 18 Italian small destinations are retrieved (period of higher tourism turnout in 2019). Both content analysis (RQ1) and linear regression models (RQ2) are used. Results. Scholars have never focused on the link between the engagement of a photo and the hashtags related to specific territories. Through this research, we can state that people use hashtags referring to the wider destination area (mainly combining region and nation). The hashtag of a small and niche destination together with the hashtags of the region, neighbouring territories or the nation, can improve the engagement of the related picture in terms of number of likes. Implications.This study confirms the role of the hashtags in enhancing a picture’s engagement contributing to the literature about the consumers’ feedback on online picture by adding the territorial dimension as a variable. From a managerial perspective, it suggests how destination management organizations should use hashtags in Instagram, in order to improve their offerings. |
| Keywords: | Hashtags, small destination, tourist area, Instagram |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:187&r= |
| By: | Chen, Jie; Kanjilal-Bhaduri, Sanghamitra; Pastore, Francesco |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we report returns to education in India using unit level data from the nationwide Periodic Labour Force Survey for 2018-19. OLS estimates from the classical Mincerian equation are presented. Various econometric techniques (e.g., conventional IV and heteroskedasticity-based IV models) are used to address endogeneity and sample selection issue. For regular workers, compared to those with no formal education, an additional year of literacy education increases yearly return by 2.3%, primary education by 3.4%, middle school education by 3.7%, secondary school education by 4.5%, higher secondary education by 5.8%, graduate and diploma by 9.8%, and postgraduate and above level of education by 8.2%. We also find a widening of the wage distribution, with striking differences across social groups, sectors, locations. First, returns to middle-school and above level of education are higher for women than for men; second, returns to graduate and above level of education are higher for urban than for rural workers; third, returns to workers in the public sector are higher than returns in the private or third sectors; fourth, returns to the scheduled tribe are the highest across all the castes. Over the last decade, returns to education have reduced. We provide evidence showing that this may be because more people hold higher levels of education qualifications, while the demand for skills remains quite stable. Overall, our policy suggestion is that in India, as in other lowmiddle- income countries, especially in rural areas, it is important to increase primary and secondary level of education in rural areas, and the tertiary level in urban areas and to equalize the life chances of some social groups. |
| Keywords: | returns to education,endogeneity,sample selection,India |
| JEL: | I26 J15 J16 J30 C20 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1016&r= |
| By: | Matteo Borrotti; Michele Rabasco; Alessandro Santoro |
| Abstract: | Aggressive tax planning (ATP) consists in taxpayers’ reducing their tax liability through arrangements that may be legal but are in contradiction with the intent of the law. In particular, ATP by multinational groups (MNE) is a source of major concern. In this paper we consider the MNE’s decision to locate or to maintain a company in a tax haven as a relevant symptom of ATP. The research question we want to address is whether this decision can be predicted using publicly available accounting information. We use ORBIS database and we focus on European MNEs. We observe that, in 2021, slightly less than 40% of European MNEs have a company located in a tax haven. Thus, for a tax authority it would be difficult, without a specific analysis, to identify riskier MNEs. We find that a random forest model that uses accounting information for years between 2015 and 2019 predicts reasonably well the decision to locate (or maintain) a company in a tax haven in 2021. Using this model in 2019, a tax authority could have identified almost 80% of European MNEs that were going to locate or maintain a company in a tax haven in 2021. We observe that the most important variables for prediction are those associated to the size of the group, to its positive profitability and to its financial structure, while individual time-invariant features are less relevant. We also find that the predictive performance of the model is maximized when the information is taken from the time subset 2017-2019 and that most important predictors for the risk of using tax havens are also good predictors for the level of intensity of such a use, as measured by the share of subsidiaries located in tax havens. The main policy implication of these results is that (European) non-tax havens could effectively anticipate (and prevent) the decision to locate (or maintain) companies in tax havens, and shape their policies accordingly, with particular reference to cooperative compliance schemes. These policies are more credible in the context of renewed international cooperation in the design of corporate tax rules, and in particular, of the implementation of Pillar Two within the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Tax Planning, European Multinationals, Machine Learning |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:488&r= |
| By: | Thilo K.G. Haverkamp (University of Kassel); Heinz Welsch (University of Oldenburg); Andreas Ziegler (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Based on representative data for 1614 citizens in Germany, this paper empirically examines the relationship between different types of environmental protection activities and subjective well-being (SWB) in terms of life satisfaction by specifically considering the role of economic preferences for this relationship. With respect to pro-environmental behavior, we differentiate between stated non-climate environmental and climate protection activities as well as revealed climate protection activities, which are measured in an incentivized donation experiment and thus are more meaningful than stated climate protection activities. Our empirical analysis reveals that climate protection activities are more robustly and more strongly positively correlated with life satisfaction than non-climate environmental protection activities. Furthermore, not only stated climate protection activities, but also revealed climate protection activities are significantly positively correlated with life satisfaction. These results suggest that climate protection activities lead to stronger warm glow feelings and reputation gains than non-climate environmental protection activities. Our empirical analysis additionally shows that economic preferences play an important role since especially patience and trust, but also risk-taking preferences and (less robust) altruism are significantly positively correlated with life satisfaction. In particular, economic preferences are also relevant for the relationship between pro-environmental behavior and life satisfaction. When economic preferences are included in the econometric analysis, the estimated correlations between climate protection activities and life satisfaction become weaker and the estimated correlation between non-climate environmental protection activities and life satisfaction even becomes insignificant. These results strongly suggest omitted variable biases in cross-sectional econometric analyses of the relationship between pro-environmental behavior and SWB when economic preferences are not included as control variables. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being; life satisfaction; pro-environmental behavior; incentivized donation experiment; economic preferences |
| JEL: | I31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202204&r= |
| By: | Duarte, Belmiro P.M.; Atkinson, Anthony C.; Granjo, Jose F.O; Oliveira, Nuno M.C |
| Abstract: | Explicit models representing the response variables as functions of the control variables are standard in virtually all scientific fields. For these models, there is a vast literature on the optimal design of experiments (ODoE) to provide good estimates of the parameters with the use of minimal resources. Contrarily, the ODoE for implicit models is more complex and has not been systematically addressed. Nevertheless, there are practical examples where the models relating the response variables, the parameters and the factors are implicit or hardly convertible into an explicit form. We propose a general formulation for developing the theory of the ODoE for implicit algebraic models to specifically find continuous local designs. The treatment relies on converting the ODoE problem into an optimization problem of the nonlinear programming (NLP) class which includes the construction of the parameter sensitivities and the Cholesky decomposition of the Fisher information matrix. The NLP problem generated has multiple local optima, and we use global solvers, combined with an equivalence theorem from the theory of ODoE, to ensure the global optimality of our continuous optimal designs. We consider D- and A-optimality criteria and apply the approach to five examples of practical interest in chemistry and thermodynamics. |
| Keywords: | model-based optimal designs; continuous designs; implicit models; nonlinear programming |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107584&r= |
| By: | Michael Kilumelume; Bruno Morando; Carol Newman; John Rand |
| Abstract: | Extractive industries form an important part of the economy for many developing countries, but their impact on growth and welfare remains understudied. With global efforts to transition to net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades, understanding the local impacts of the extractives sector is crucially important for regional economic development policy in the management of this transition. In this paper we use tax administrative data from South Africa to examine the local spillovers from mining activities, focusing on wages, firm profitability, and job creation. |
| Keywords: | Mining, South Africa, Spillovers, Firms, Profitability |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-10&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Friedrich (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lisa Laun (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Costas Meghir (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University); Luigi Pistaferri (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We use matched employer-employee data from Sweden to study the role of the firm in affecting the stochastic properties of wages. Our model accounts for endogenous participation and mobility decisions. We find that firm-specific permanent productivity shocks transmit to individual wages, but the effect is mostly concentrated among the high-skilled workers. For low-skilled the pass-through is similar for temporary and permanent firm-level shocks and the magnitude smaller. The updates to worker-firm specific match effects over the life of a firm-worker relationship are small. Substantial growth in earnings variance over the life cycle for high-skilled workers is driven by firms. In particular, cross-sectional wage variances by age 55 are roughly one-third higher relative to a scenario with no pass-through of firm shocks onto wages. |
| Date: | 2021–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/33&r= |
| By: | Dietrich, Stephan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Meysonnat, Aline (University of Washington, Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance); Rosales, Francisco (ESAN Graduate School of Business, Lima); Cebotari, Victor (University of Luxembourg); Gassmann, Franziska (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Globally, 21 percent of young women are married before their 18th birthday. Despite some progress in addressing child marriage, it remains a widespread practice, in particular in South Asia. While household predictors of child marriage have been studied extensively in the literature, the evidence base on macro-economic factors contributing to child marriage and models that predict where child marriage cases are most likely to occur remains limited. In this paper we aim to fill this gap and explore region-level indicators to predict the persistence of child marriage in four countries in South Asia, namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. We apply machine learning techniques to child marriage data and develop a prediction model that relies largely on regional and local inputs such as droughts, floods, population growth and nightlight data to model the incidence of child marriages. We find that our gradient boosting model is able to identify a large proportion of the true child marriage cases and correctly classifies 78% of the true marriage cases, with a higher accuracy in Bangladesh (90% of the cases) and a lower accuracy in Nepal (71% of cases). In addition, all countries contain in their top 10 variables for classification nighttime light growth, a shock index of drought over the previous and the last two years and the regional level of education, suggesting that income shocks, the regional economic activity and regional education levels play a significant role in predicting child marriage. Given the accuracy of the model to predict child marriage, our model is a valuable tool to support policy design in countries where household-level data remains limited. |
| Keywords: | child marriage, income shocks, machine learning, South Asia |
| JEL: | J1 J12 O15 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021034&r= |
| By: | Behrang Shirizadeh (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TotalEnergies); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the Paris agreement, France has set a target of zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This target can only be achieved by rapidly decreasing the proportion of fossil fuels and accelerating the deployment of low-carbon technologies. We develop a detailed model of the power sector to investigate the role of different low- and negative-emission technologies in the French electricity mix and we identify the impact of the relative cost of these technologies for various values of the social cost of carbon (SCC). We show that for a wide range of SCC values (from 0 to €500/tCO2), the optimal power mix consists of roughly 75% of renewable power. For a SCC value of €100/tCO2, the power sector becomes nearly carbon neutral while for €200/tCO2 and more it provides negative emissions. The availability of negative emission technologies can decrease the system cost by up to 18% and can create up to 20MtCO2/year of negative emissions, while the availability of new nuclear power stations is much less important. This study demonstrates the importance of an effective SCC value (as a tax for positive emissions and remuneration for negative emissions) in reaching carbon neutrality at moderate cost. Negative emissions may represent an important carbon market which could attract investments if supported by public policies. |
| Keywords: | Power system modeling,Variable renewables,Negative emissions,Social cost of carbon,Nuclear energy. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03508233&r= |
| By: | William Wills (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro); Emilio Lebre La Rovere (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro); Carolina Grottera (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro); Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro); Gaëlle Le Treut (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); F. Ghersi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Lefèvre (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) |
| Abstract: | Curbing GHG emissions while preserving economic growth is one of the main challenges that developing countries are facing to meet the Paris Agreement commitments. Brazil's NDC target aims to reduce economy-wide absolute levels of GHG emissions by 37% in 2025 and 43% in 2030, compared to 2005 emissions. In this paper, we compare command-and-control and carbon pricing policies to induce the Brazilian economy to meet its NDC targets. We focus on analysing synergies and trade-offs in macroeconomic and social development, captured by economic growth and income distribution while reducing GHG emissions. By integrating a series of sectoral models and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we develop and run different policy scenarios that simulate a set of carbon pricing schemes in Brazil. Our analysis shows that NDC implementation in Brazil under carbon pricing policies allows the country to meet its targets and improve economic and social indicators compared to a command-and-control policy. With about the same GHG emissions up to 2030, important macroeconomic and social co-benefits can be achieved under a carbon pricing policy in Brazil, allowing for reduced welfare losses against business-as-usual trends. Key policy insights Carbon pricing policies are more cost-effective to meet NDC targets in Brazil up to 2030, resulting in higher GDP and household income, in comparison to other individual policy instruments, including command-and-control and subsidies to investments. A carbon price of about 10 USD/tCO2e, combined importantly with deforestation rates under control, would allow Brazil to meet its NDC targets. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03500923&r= |
| By: | Bekaert, Els (UNU-CRIS, Ghent University, Department of Economics); Constant, Amelie F. (UNU-MERIT, GLO, CESifo and Princeton University); Foubert, Killian (UNU-CRIS, Ghent University, Department of Economics); Ruyssen, Ilse (UNU-CRIS, Ghent University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, a random utility model, and a multinomial logit we model the aspirations or stated preferences of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries’ level of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Immigrants, Geographic Labor Mobility, Public Policy, Micro-economic Behavior, International Migration, Large Data Sets, Modeling and Analysis |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 D01 F22 C55 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021035&r= |
| By: | Roman Inderst (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Goethe University Frankfurt); Eftichios S. Sartzetakis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Anastasios Xepapadeas (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Busines) |
| Abstract: | We posit that consumers?preferences for more sustainable products depend on the perceived social norm, which in turn is shaped by average consumption behavior. We explore the implications of such preferences for ?rms?incentives to introduce more sustainable products and to co-operate in order to either foster or forestall their introduction. Our main motivation lies in the increasing pressure put on antitrust authorities to exert more leniency towards horizontal agreements that are motivated by sustainability considerations. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability; Antitrust; Firm Cooperation. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2022_02&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | In tandem with Eurozone financial market developments and the prevalence of negative interest rates in 2020, Cypriot banks passed through the costs of their liquidity to their customers, reducing the attractiveness of placing PDMO cash surpluses in domestic bank deposits. Suitable investment alternatives to central bank deposits for the PDMO’s liquidity buffer are scarce, given negative yields on other Eurozone sovereign and agency issues. This situation is shared by the PDMO with almost all of its Eurozone peers. While this is likely to persist in the short term, it should not preclude establishing a framework governing the PDMO’s investment policy or a suitable set of guidelines. |
| Date: | 2022–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/002&r= |
| By: | Andrew Kirillov; Sehyun Chung |
| Abstract: | The StableSims project set out to determine optimal parameters for the new auction mechanism, Liquidations 2.0, used by MakerDAO, a protocol built on Ethereum offering a decentralized, collateralized stablecoin called Dai. We developed an agent-based simulation that emulates both the Maker protocol smart contract logic, and how profit-motivated agents ("keepers") will act in the real world when faced with decisions such as liquidating "vaults" (collateralized debt positions) and bidding on collateral auctions. This research focuses on the incentive structure introduced in Liquidations 2.0, which implements both a constant fee (tip) and a fee proportional to vault size (chip) paid to keepers that liquidate vaults or restart stale collateral auctions. We sought to minimize the amount paid in incentives while maximizing the speed with which undercollateralized vaults were liquidated. Our findings indicate that it is more cost-effective to increase the constant fee, as opposed to the proportional fee, in order to decrease the time it takes for keepers to liquidate vaults. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.03519&r= |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Smart, Jenny; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | Public expenditures (PE), their sizes, and allocations across sectors, are some of the important instruments for the public sector to contribute toward sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, knowledge gaps remain as to how PEs have actually contributed to key SDG outcomes in the past, including the eradication of poverty and hunger, and the improvement in food and nutrition security in sustainable manners (SDGs 1 and 2). This study aims to partly fill this knowledge gap using the Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED data) and various country-level panel data. We find that PEs in different sectors have been significantly associated with key indicators under SDGs 1 and 2. Specifically, greater PEs for agriculture and health sectors have had relatively positive effects on total factor productivity growth in agriculture, reduced consumer food price indices, reduced poverty, reduced stunting, underweight or overweight among children under 5. A greater PE for agriculture has also been weakly associated with enhanced biodiversity. These relationships are observed for a broad class of countries, but somewhat stronger for countries that had been classified as low- or lower-middle-income in 2000. Greater PEs for education and social protection, which have been generally higher than PEs for agriculture and health, have had more mixed effects on these outcomes. While continued analyses are required to better understand the complex linkages between PE and these outcomes, the current study offers useful preliminary insights. |
| Keywords: | WORLD; public expenditure; poverty; data; food security; nutrition security; Sustainable Development Goals; Goal 1 No poverty; Goal 2 Zero hunger; cross-country evidence; panel data; SPEED data |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2051&r= |
| By: | Lea, Jon; Harvey, John; Saboori, Arash; Butt, Ali A. |
| Abstract: | The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has a growing need to be able to quantify its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the other environmental impacts of pavement operations, and to consider GHG and those other impacts in pavement management, conceptual design, design, materials selection, and construction project delivery decisions. Caltrans also needs to be able to evaluate the life cycle environmental impacts as part of policy and standards development. All these tasks can be performed using life cycle assessment (LCA), although there are different constraints and requirements with respect to the scope of the LCA and the data available for each of these different applications. The web-based software environmental Life Cycle Assessment for Pavements (eLCAP) is a project-level LCA tool that uses California- and Caltrans-specific life cycle inventories (LCIs) and processes. The LCI database has been critically reviewed by outside experts following ISO standards. eLCAP models the life cycle history of a pavement project by allowing a user to specify any number of construction-type events, occurring at a user-specified date, followed by an automatically generated Use Stage event that begins immediately afterward and lasts until the next construction-type event or the end-of-life date. The Use Stage models currently consider the effects of roughness in terms of International Roughness Index and use the same performance models that are used in the Caltrans pavement asset management system software, PaveM. eLCAP performs a formal mass-balancing procedure on a pavement LCA project model and then computes 18 different impact category values—including Global Warming Potential, Human Health Particulate Air, Acidification, and different forms of Primary Energy—and generates a detailed Excel report file to display graphs and tables of results. The results can be presented in terms of life cycle stage, material types, and other details. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, life cycle assessment, environmental life cycle assessment, life cycle inventory, greenhouse gas, use stage, web application, cradle-to-gate |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9f5181j1&r= |
| By: | Estella Achinko (DePaul University, Chicago, USA) |
| Abstract: | The continuing insecurity, instability, disruption of political harmony, erosion of social cohesion, destruction of the economic fabric and public despondency in various parts of Africa call on the Peace and Security Council to play a locomotive role in spearheading strategic interventions to put this sad situation to an end. Most crises and violent conflicts in Africa are being driven by poverty, economic hardships, violation or manipulation of constitutions, violation of human rights, exclusion, inequalities, marginalization and mismanagement of Africa’s rich ethnic diversity, as well as relapses into the cycle of violence in some post-conflict settings and external interference in African affairs. Undoubtedly, these challenges can be overcome, as long as the correct remedies are identified and are applied. Following the adoption of the “Silencing the Guns†initiative by the Fifth African Union High-Level Retreat on the Promotion of Peace, Security and Stability in Africa, this study analyzes the failures and successes of this initiative towards current happenings, and what can still be done through a conflict transformation perspective. While using practical examples, a range of methods used in conflict transformation, and combining theoretical inputs on specific conflict transformation initiative and processes, it remains important to note that every conflict is different and will require its own tailored-made approach to understanding and solving it. |
| Keywords: | African Union, Conflict transformation, Peace and Security, Silencing the guns |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0061&r= |
| By: | John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | Remarks at Council on Foreign Relations (delivered via videoconference). |
| Keywords: | inflation; economy; supply; market; growth; Omicron; COVID-19; unemployment; employment; labor market; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2022–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:93629&r= |
| By: | Luca Panzone (School of Natural and Environmental Science, Newcastle University; The Alan Turing Institute); Natasha Auch (The Alan Turing Institute); Daniel Zizzo (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia) |
| Abstract: | We use an incentive-compatible experimental online supermarket to test the role of commitment and badges in reducing the carbon footprint of grocery shopping. In the experiment, some participants had the opportunity to voluntarily commit to a low carbon footprint basket before their online grocery shopping; while the commitment was forced upon other participants. We also study the impact of an online badge as a soft reward for the achievement of a low carbon footprint basket. Participants from the general population shopped over two weeks, with the experimental stimuli only in week 2; and received their shopping baskets and any unspent budget. Results indicate that requesting a commitment prior to entering the store leads to a reduction in carbon footprint of 8-9%. The online badge led to non-significant reductions in carbon footprint. Commitment mechanisms, either forced or voluntary, appear effective in motivating an environmental goal and search for low-carbon options, particularly in those accepting the commitment. |
| Keywords: | sustainable consumption, commitment, field experiment, carbon footprint, food consumption. |
| JEL: | C54 C93 D12 D91 Q18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:652&r= |
| By: | Shaun P. Hargreaves Heap; Emma Manifold; Konstantinos Matakos; Dimitrios Xefteris |
| Abstract: | We test in the laboratory four mechanisms whereby group identification might affect redistribution in representative democracies. For voters, group identification can give rise to a preference for own-group payoffs, for electing an own-group candidate, and could be used to assess candidate-sincerity. For candidates, identity might affect the optimal campaign platform. There is evidence to support all four. The influence of own-group pay-offs has been studied before, but the other mechanisms have not. These new mechanisms combine to make redistribution depend on a hitherto unrecognized factor: the political representation of the minority group. |
| Keywords: | Identity; Inequality; Redistribution; Minority Representation; Representative Democracy; Voting Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D63 D72 D90 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:02-2022&r= |
| By: | Getahun, Tigabu; Fetene, Gebeyehu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of smallholders’ participation in rural off-farm activities, which includes rural non-farm own business and wage employment, and its effect on food shortage, relative deprivation and dietary diversity. To address these objectives, we use a three-wave panel dataset of 7,110 smallholder farm households in Ethiopia. The estimation result suggests that the gender composition of households, age, education, natural shocks, participation in community meetings, exposure to media, access to credit, farmland, agricultural markets and rural infrastructure such as electricity are the key determinants of smallholders’ participation in rural off-farm activities. The estimation results also suggest that smallholders’ participation in rural wage employment aggravates relative deprivation, while participation in rural non-farm own business activities reduce relative deprivation and food shortage. On the other hand, our estimation results indicate that participation in both nonfarm own business activities and wage employment improve the dietary diversity of smallholder farmers. Hence, well-designed policy interventions aimed at enhancing smallholder farmers’ rural wage employment and non-farm own business participation could help to enhance dietary diversity and reduce food shortages and relative deprivation. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:319328&r= |
| By: | Valérie Lechene (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Krishna Pendakur (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Simon Fraser University); Alexander Wolf (Institute for Fiscal Studies and ECARES) |
| Abstract: | We provide a method to estimate resource shares—the fraction of total household expenditure allocated to each household member—using OLS estimation of Engel curves. The method is a linear reframing of the nonlinear model of Dunbar, Lewbel and Pendakur (2013), extended to allow single-parent and other complex households, scale economies in assignable goods and complementarities between non assignable goods, and supplemented with a linear identification test. We apply the model to data from 12 countries, and investigate resource shares, gender gaps, and poverty at the individual level. We reject equal sharing, and find large gender gaps in resource shares, and consequently in poverty rates, in some countries. |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/19&r= |
| By: | Kim, Jun Hyung; Koh, Yu Kyung; Park, Jinseong |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of working from home on mental health, with particular attention to the role of home environments. Using unique real time survey data from South Korea collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that working from home negatively affects the mental health of workers, with greater effects on women and those who are primarily responsible for housework while also maintaining market work. Surprisingly, workers who live with children in the household do not suffer from the negative effects of working from home. Our findings suggest that family-work interaction may be an important factor in the optimal design of working from home. |
| Keywords: | Working from home,home working,remote work,COVID-19,mental health,subjective well-being |
| JEL: | D13 L23 L84 M11 M54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:960r&r= |
| By: | Jost, Thomas; Tödter, Karl-Heinz |
| Abstract: | Debt levels in the eurozone have reached new record highs. The member countries have tried to cushion the economic consequences of the corona pandemic with a massive increase in government spending. There are various calls to abolish or soften the Maastricht rules of limiting sovereign debt. The authors see the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis in this decade if it is not possible to bring public debt down to an acceptable level. The authors propose a new fiscal rule that would be suitable and appropriate for this purpose. In contrast to the rigid 3% Maastricht-criterion, the rule is flexible and it addresses the main problem: excessively high public debt ratios. The authors argue that it lowers the existing incentives for highly indebted governments to exert expansionary pressure on monetary policy. If obeyed strictly, the rule reinforces the snowball effect and reduces the excessively high debt ratios within a manageable period, even if nominal growth is weak. This is confirmed by simulations with different scenarios as well as with the hypothetical application of the new fiscal rule to eurozone economies from 2022 to 2026. Finally, the authors take up the proposal by ESM economists to increase the permissible debt ratio from 60 to 100% of GDP in the eurozone. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone,fiscal rules,Maastricht criteria,sovereign debt,Stability and Growth Pact |
| JEL: | H62 H68 F55 F45 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:164&r= |
| By: | Mara Barschkett; C. Katharina Spieß; Elena Ziege |
| Abstract: | Grandparents act as the third largest caregiver after parental care and daycare in Germany, as in many Western societies. Adopting a double-generation perspective, we investigate the causal impact of this care mode on children's health, socio-emotional behavior, and school outcomes, as well as parental well-being. Based on representative German panel data sets, and exploiting arguably exogenous variations in geographical distance to grandparents, we analyze age-specific effects, taking into account counterfactual care modes. Our results suggest null or negative effects on children's outcomes: If children three years and older are in full-time daycare or school and, in addition, cared for by grandparents, they have more health and socio-emotional problems, in particular conduct problems. In contrast, our results point to positive effects on parental satisfaction with the childcare situation and leisure. The effects for mothers correspond to an increase of 11 percent in satisfaction with the childcare situation and 14 percent in satisfaction with leisure, compared to the mean, although the results differ by child age. While the increase in paternal satisfaction with the childcare situation is, at 21 percent, even higher, we do not find an effect on paternal satisfaction with leisure. |
| Keywords: | grandparental childcare, socio-emotional outcomes, cognitive outcomes, parental well-being, instrumental variable |
| JEL: | D1 I21 I31 J13 J14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1975&r= |
| By: | Patzina, Alexander (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dietrich, Hans (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Barabasch, Anton (IAB) |
| Abstract: | "This study analyzes the influence of mental and physical health, coping abilities, cooperativeness, and work commitment on the transition from apprenticeship training to a first job. In doing so, we first investigate transitions to regular employment within six months post-graduation. Second, we analyze gapless transitions from training to a first job. Third, we investigate transitions to a decent first job. This study draws on a unique dataset of 1,061 individuals from Germany that combines rich survey and register data. The baseline survey takes place during the last year of training for these individuals and contains information on their schooling, health, personality disorders and work attitudes. The register data measure the training environment and labor market outcomes. The results from linear probability models reveal that only physical health is associated with finding a first job within six months. Physical and mental health are associated with gapless transitions. Overall health, coping abilities and work commitment are important in terms of finding decent employment. However, when conditioning on individual and training firm characteristics, these associations are weakened and become statistically insignificant. Thus, the constructs under study might drive school graduates into certain training firms and occupations leading to decent first jobs. Fourth, our results indicate that the effect of overall health on gapless transitions is largest for individuals with higher levels of education, while the overall health effect is almost zero for those who are least educated. Thus, this study provides evidence of a cumulative disadvantage of the least educated in the school-to-work transition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | J24 M53 P46 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202202&r= |
| By: | Cristina Arellano; Yan Bai; Gabriel Mihalache |
| Abstract: | We study the COVID-19 epidemic in emerging markets that face financial frictions and its mitigation through social distancing and vaccination. We find that restricted vaccine availability in emerging markets, as captured by limited quantities and high prices, renders the pandemic exceptionally costly compared to economies without financial frictions. Improved access to financial markets enables better response to the delay in vaccine supplies, as it supports more stringent social distancing measures prior to wider vaccine availability. We show that financial assistance programs to such financially constrained countries can increase vaccinations and lower fatalities, at no present-value cost to the international community. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal space; Vaccination; Financial market conditions; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I18 F41 F34 |
| Date: | 2021–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93491&r= |
| By: | Shin-ichi Fukuda (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Mariko Tanaka (Musashino University) |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2022cf1184&r= |
| By: | John Beirne; Yannis Dafermos; Alexander Kriwoluzky; Nuobu Renzhi; Ulrich Volz; Jana Wittich |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on price stability in the euro area. We estimate panel and country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models by combining estimated damages of disaster events with monthly data for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for all euro area countries over the period 1996-2021. Besides estimating the effect on overall headline inflation, we examine effects on its 12 main sub-indices and further sub-categories of food price inflation. This allows us to disentangle differences in the direction and strength of price effects across consumption categories. Our results suggest significant positive effects of natural disasters on overall headline inflation, with diverging results at the sub-index level. Positive inflation effects are particularly pronounced for prices of food and beverages, while negative effects prevail for other sub-indices. Our country-specific results suggest heterogenous inflation effects of natural disasters across different countries. A key implication of our findings is that climate change is likely to make it increasingly difficult for the European Central bank to achieve its inflation target. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, climate, inflation, monetary policy, European Central Bank |
| JEL: | E31 E52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1981&r= |
| By: | Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Adrian Mendoza (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Stella Luz Quimbo (House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City) |
| Abstract: | We use a unique Philippine firm-level database consisting of trade transactions data merged with firm surveys of manufacturing establishments covering the period from 2013 to 2019 to examine which exporting and importing firms are potentially vulnerable to the economic slowdown brought about by the spread of COVID-19. We find that the exposure of Philippine trade to the COVID-19 affected countries is substantial, accounting for more than half of the value of both exports and imports. Those that stand to lose the most are firms connected to the global value chains that simultaneously export and import. Around 370,000 workers from these firms are at risk. While large firms are able to withstand, to some extent,the COVID-19 shock, SMEs do not have such capability. We find that the profile of these SMEs is substantially different than that of the larger firms in terms of product composition. These SMEs export food and food products which are highly perishable and more sensitive even to short-term vicissitudes in global demand. Given these, we estimate the subsidy needed to support both SMEs and large firms. For SMEs, we compute the subsidy to be Php9.4 billion pesos for 2020. The amount of subsidy increases to Php33.2 billion if large firms were also subsidized for their losses. Identifying the specific mechanism by which such subsidies will be provided to firms of various sizes (e.g. SMEs vs large) requires further study. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippine Firms; Stimulus Package |
| JEL: | O14 L11 H25 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202001&r= |
| By: | Marjorie C. Pajaron (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Recent data on COVID-19 would suggest that no country is inured to the adverse effects of this disease. Although experts somehow agree on the virulence of the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2), it is puzzling why some countries have experienced the full brunt of the virus while others appear to have been totally spared. This paper examines one possible reason for the seemingly capricious nature of this virus. We compare the timing of the government response (travel restrictions and social distancing measures) of the ten ASEAN member countries and the incidence of COVID-19. Our preliminary results suggest that countries that responded relatively late (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand), when the local human-to-human transmission was already intense, have experienced a relatively high incidence of COVID-19 with the exception of Singapore and Cambodia. Further and more rigorous (regression) analysis is planned, conditional on data availability. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Cross-country analysis; ASEAN |
| JEL: | H12 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202010&r= |
| By: | D'Auria, Bernardo; Salmeron Garrido, Jose Antonio |
| Abstract: | A Markovian modulation captures the trend in the market and influences the market coefficients accordingly. The different scenarios presented by the market are modeled as the distinct states of a discrete-time Markov chain. In our paper, we assume the existence of such modulation in a market and, as a novelty, we assume that it can be anticipative with respect to the future of the Brownian motion that drives the dynamics of the risky asset. By employing these own techniques of enlargement of filtrations, we solve an optimal portfolio utility problem in both a complete and an incomplete market. Many examples of anticipative Markov chains are presented for which we compute the additional gain of the investor who has a more accurate information |
| Keywords: | Optimal Portfolio; Markov Modulated; Regime-Switching; Jacod’s hypothesis; Anticipative Information; Value of the information |
| Date: | 2022–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:34083&r= |
| By: | Adida, Claire; Arriola, Leonardo; Kosec, Katrina; Matanock, Aila; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung |
| Abstract: | This factsheet describes a planned project in Nigeria, working with existing partners, that will provide useful policy recommendations for empowering women in the public sphere. It has the potential to inform implementation of the National Gender Policy in Agriculture prepared by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and programming by the Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development (MWASD) by sharing specific lessons on how to harness women’s social capital and leadership skills to promote more equitable agricultural and development policies. The project pairs an intervention aimed at generating leadership skills, a sense of collective efficacy, and effective participation in local politics among women’s groups in Nigeria with a rigorous randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand what works and how to give women a voice in their communities. It builds on programming by ActionAid Nigeria, our implementing partner; we will further refine this programming through qualitative work and embed it in a theory of change. ActionAid Nigeria prioritizes the leadership of women, especially those living in poverty and exclusion. |
| Keywords: | NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; gender; women; women's participation; advocacy; training; politics; policies |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nssppn:55&r= |
| By: | Rauh, C.; Santos, M. R. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of existing and universal transfer programs on vacancy creation, wages, and welfare using a search-and-matching model with heterogeneous agents and on-the-job human capital accumulation. We calibrate the general equilibrium model to match key moments concerning unemployment, wage and wealth distributions, as well as the distribution of EITC and transfers. In addition, unemployment insurance benefits are related to pre-unemployment earnings and subject to exhaustion, after which agents can only rely on transfers and savings. First, we show that existing transfers hamper economic activity but provide sizeable welfare gains. Next, we show that a universal basic income of nearly $12,500 to each household per year, which replaces all existing transfer programs and unemployment benefits, can lead to small aggregate welfare gains. These welfare gains mostly accrue to less skilled individuals despite their sizable fall in wages, and the overall rise in skill premia and wage inequality. Albeit the extra burden of higher taxes to finance UBI, we show that the increased action in hiring is a key channel though which outcomes for low education groups improve with the reform. However, if we keep the UI benefits in place, the positive effects on job creation vanish and UBI does not improve upon the current system. |
| Keywords: | Transfer programs, EITC, Means-tested transfers, Welfare programs, Labor supply, On-the-job human capital accumulation, Life cycle, Inequality, Universal basic income, UBI, Unemployment, General equilibrium |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2208&r= |
| By: | Moe, Cathrine; Brinchmann, Beate; Rasmussen, Line; Brandseth, Oda Lekve; McDaid, David; Killackey, Eóin; Rinaldi, Miles; Borg, Marit; Mykletun, Arnstein |
| Abstract: | Background For decades there has been a continuous increase in the number of people receiving welfare benefits for being outside the work force due to mental illness. There is sufficient evidence for the efficacy of Individual Placement and Support (IPS) for gaining and maintaining competitive employment. Yet, IPS is still not implemented as routine practice in public community mental health services. Knowledge about implementation challenges as experienced by the practitioners is limited. This study seeks to explore the experiences of the front-line workers, known as employment specialists, in the early implementation phase. Methods Qualitative data were collected through field notes and five focus group interviews. The study participants were 45 IPS employment specialists located at 14 different sites in Northern Norway. Transcripts and field notes were analysed by thematic analyses. Results While employment specialists are key to the implementation process, implementing IPS requires more than creating and filling the role of the employment specialist. It requires adjustments in multiple organisations. The new employment specialist then is a pioneer of service development. Some employment specialists found this a difficult challenge, and one that did not correspond to their expectations going into this role. Others appreciated the pioneering role. IPS implementation also challenged the delegation of roles and responsibilities between sectors, and related legal frameworks related to confidentiality and access. The facilitating role of human relationships emphasised the importance of social support which is an important factor in a healthy work environment. Rural areas with long distances and close- knit societies may cause challenges for implementation. Conclusion The study provides increased understanding on what happens in the early implementation phase of IPS from the employment specialists’ perspective. Results from this study can contribute to increased focus on job satisfaction, turnover and recruitment of employment specialists, factors which have previously been shown to influence the success of IPS. The greatest challenge for making “IPS efficacy in trials” become “IPS effectiveness in the real world” is implementation, and this study has highlighted some of the implementation issues. |
| Keywords: | early phase; employment specialist; implementation; individual placement and support; mental illness; rural; supported employmet; vocational rehabilitation; work; 273665 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113006&r= |
| By: | Dieci, Roberto; Mignot, Sarah; Westerhoff, Frank H. |
| Abstract: | We develop a cobweb model in which firms, facing a two-period production delay, have access to a flexible (costly) and an inflexible (cheap) production technology. Moreover, firms select between production technologies depending on theirevolutionary fitness, measured in terms of past realized profits. The dynamics of our cobweb model is driven by a four-dimensional nonlinear map. We analytically show that its unique steady state may become unstable due to a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, a scenario that gives rise to cyclical price dynamics, as observed in actual commodity markets. Simulations furthermore reveal that our cobweb model may also produce chaotic motion. |
| Keywords: | Cobweb models,production technology,cyclical price dynamics,bounded rationality and learning,stability and bifurcation analysis,chaos |
| JEL: | D24 E32 Q11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bamber:174&r= |
| By: | Lucie Martin (University College Dublin School of Economics and Geary Institute for Public Policy); Liam Delaney (London School of Economics Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science); Orla Doyle (University College Dublin School of Economics and Geary Institute for Public Policy) |
| Abstract: | Administrative burdens may deepen inequality by creating costly experiences for vulnerable groups. Research to date typically focuses on how burdens affect decisions in specific policy contexts, thus little is known about everyday experiences of burdens and their distribution in society. This is the first study to document everyday administrative experiences, accounting for time and emotional costs across ten domains: tax, retirement, government benefits, bills, goods and services, savings, debt, health, childcare, and adult care. Results from 2,243 UK adults show that administrative tasks are a significant part of life (one hour per day). Time and emotional costs vary by domain; government benefits emerge as particularly costly. There is evidence that administrative burdens are regressive, not only through their effects on decisions, but through their unequal distribution in society. Those in poor health and financial insecurity focus on tasks salient to them (e.g. benefits, health, debt), but are less likely to engage in beneficial longer-term tasks (e.g. savings, retirement), and suffer higher emotional costs from engaging in tasks relevant to their disadvantage, compared to non-disadvantaged groups. A choice experiment shows that (hypothetical) burdens discourage beneficial action in general, but even more so for some disadvantaged groups. |
| Keywords: | administrative burden; inequality; time-use; subjective well-being; experiment |
| JEL: | D91 I30 J10 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202202&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Nissaf Ben Ayed Smaoui |
| Abstract: | This article studies the links between governance and risk-taking in banks. For the agency theory, when information are asymmetric, the disciplinary mechanisms of governance have a moderating effect on the remuneration policy and, consequently, the managers' choice concerning the balance between assets' revenue and risk. The following model shows that: i) The presence of effective disciplinary mechanisms does not reduce the latitude of managers to award themselves a high level of wages; ii) This binds the control of risk-taking through remuneration structures. Remuneration is not a determining factor in explaining risk-taking. iii) Contrary to the agency theory's teaching, excessive risk-taking is not induced by asymmetric information. |
| Keywords: | G2,G24,G3,G34 Agency theory,Bank governance,information asymmetry,CEO's remuneration,bank risk |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502607&r= |
| By: | Philippe Faverdin (PEGASE - Physiologie, Environnement et Génétique pour l'Animal et les Systèmes d'Elevage [Rennes] - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hervé Guyomard (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Laurence Puillet (MoSAR - Modélisation Systémique Appliquée aux Ruminants - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Agneta Forslund (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Cattle are the world's largest consumers of plant biomass. Digestion of this biomass by ruminants generates high methane emissions that affect global warming. In the last decades, the specialisation of cattle breeds and livestock systems towards either milk or meat has increased the milk production of dairy cows and the carcass weight of slaughtered cattle. At the animal level and farm level, improved animal performance decreases feed use and greenhouse gas emissions per kg of milk or carcass weight, mainly through a dilution of maintenance requirements per unit of product. However, increasing milk production per dairy cow reduces meat production from the dairy sector, as there are fewer dairy cows. More beef cows are then required if one wants to maintain the same meat production level at country scale. Meat produced from the dairy herd has a better feed efficiency (less feed required per kg of carcass weight) and emits less methane than the meat produced by the cow-calf systems, because the intake of lactating cows is largely for milk production and marginally for meat, whereas the intake of beef cows is entirely for meat. Consequently, the benefits of breed specialisation assessed at the animal level and farm level may not hold when milk and meat productions are considered together. Any change in the milk-to-meat production ratio at the country level affects the numbers of beef cows required to produce meat. At the world scale, a broad diversity in feed efficiencies of cattle products is observed. Where both productions of milk per dairy cow and meat per head of cattle are low, the relationship between milk and meat efficiencies is positive. Improved management practices (feed, reproduction, health) increase the feed efficiency of both products. Where milk and meat productivities are high, a trade-off between feed efficiencies of milk and meat can be observed in relation to the share of meat produced in either the dairy sector or the beef sector. As a result, in developing countries, increasing productivities of both dairy and beef cattle herds will increase milk and meat efficiencies, reduce land use and decrease methane emissions. In other regions of the world, increasing meat production from young animals produced by dairy cows is probably a better option to reduce feed use for an unchanged milk-to-meat production ratio. |
| Keywords: | Beef,Dairy,Feed conversion ratio,Methane,Upscaling |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03513868&r= |
| By: | Vladimir Asriyan; Dana Foarta; Victoria Vanasco |
| Abstract: | We study the joint determination of product quality and complexity in a rational setting. We introduce a novel notion of complexity, which affects how costly it is for an agent to acquire information about product quality. In our model, an agent can accept or reject a product proposed by a designer, who can affect the quality and the complexity of the product. Examples include banks that design financial products that they offer to retail investors, or policymakers who propose policies for approval by voters. We find that complexity is not necessarily a feature of low quality products. While an increase in alignment between the agent and the designer leads to more complex but better quality products, higher product demand or lower competition among designers leads to more complex and lower quality products. Our findings produce novel empirical implications on the relationship between quality and complexity, which we relate to evidence within the context of financial products and regulatory policies. |
| Keywords: | complexity, information acquisition, signaling, regulation, financial products |
| JEL: | D82 D83 G18 P16 D78 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21155&r= |
| By: | Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Bet Caeyers (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sara Giunti (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Bansi Malde (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Kent); Susanna Smets (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Imperfect capital markets and commitment problems impede lumpy human capital investments. Labelled loans can alleviate both constraints, but little is known about their effectiveness in practice. We draw on a cluster randomized controlled trial in rural India to provide the first evidence that labelled microcredit is effective in increasing take-up of a lumpy human capital investment, a safe toilet. Testing predictions from a theoretical model provides novel evidence that loan labels influence household borrowing and investment decisions. Not all loans are used for sanitation investments, suggesting that loan labels offer a soft commitment incentive. |
| Date: | 2021–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/09&r= |
| By: | Nasri, Khaled; Weslati, Adnen |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a targeting methodology focused on household's deprivations that helps the public decision-maker in Tunisia to alleviate multidimensional poverty. In the first part of this research, we intend to decipher the relationship between official poverty measurement and anti-poverty programs currently implemented in Tunisia, with special emphasis on their targeting performance and on the divergence observed between the beneficiary selection process at the regional level and the official identification of poor households. Next, we will outline the proposed targeting methodology using the counting identification approach and we estimate three groups of potential beneficiaries reflecting three degrees of poverty. Our empirical findings show that if a household becomes deprived in one dimension, then he will automatically be considered a potential beneficiary of the anti-poverty program. In terms of budget allocation, categorizing beneficiaries by group allows the public decision-maker to prioritize the most urgent situations in the country, even in the case of an austerity policy. On the other hand, to eradicate poverty in all its forms everywhere, it would be useful to strengthen the targeting of the poor population through a forward-looking policy targeting households living in vulnerability to poverty. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Poverty Alleviation,Targeting,Counting Approach,Tunisia |
| JEL: | C54 C43 I18 H12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1019&r= |
| By: | Bossoma Doriane N’DOUA |
| Abstract: | Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs) govern trade in several sectors, including the forest-wood-paper sector. Using a gravity model, we analyze the impact of SPS and TBT measures on trade flows in the forest-wood-paper sector by distinguishing between technical regulations and conformity assessment procedures. Our results show that SPS and TBT conformity assessment procedures and TBT technical regulations increase trade flows. We also find that the impact of these measures differs depending on the level of development of imposing countries when imports come from developing countries. In particular, SPS and TBT conformity assessment procedures and SPS technical regulations imposed by developed countries tend to restrict trade with developing country exporters, while TBT technical regulations tend to increase it. In contrast, SPS and TBT conformity assessment procedures imposed by developing countries contribute to increasing such trade. In analyzing the differences or similarities in regulatory patterns between these countries, we find that, on average, developing countries exhibit less regulatory intensity than developed countries. This result suggests that it will require more technical and financial resources for developing countries to comply with measures imposed by developed countries that adopt more stringent technical measures than they do. |
| Keywords: | STEM migrants; High-skilled migrants; Inventors; Gender |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:bdxewp:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Mabaya, Edward; Waithaka, Michael; Tihanyi, Krisztina; Yao, Samuel Adzivor; Wobil, John; Mugoya, Mainza; Magambo, George |
| Abstract: | The timely availability of improved seeds at affordable prices is critical to improving food security, resilience, and livelihoods for smallholder farmers in Ghana. Seed of improved varieties can deliver state-of-the-art technology to farmers including higher yields, disease and pest resistance, climate change adaptation, and improved nutrition. This report summarizes the key findings of the study conducted by The African Seed Access Index (TASAI) to appraise the structure and economic performance of Ghana’s formal seed sector. With a focus on the four grain and legume crops important to national food and nutritional security (maize, rice, soya bean, and cowpea) the report covers 22 key performance indicators divided into five categories: Research and Development, Industry Competitiveness, Seed Policy and Regulations, Institutional Support, and Service to Smallholder Farmers. We conclude that Ghana’s formal seed sector is in the early growth stage of development. The requisite policy, legal, and regulatory instruments are in place and mostly functional. The government subsidy program, Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) has boosted the seed sector in Ghana by providing a reliable channel for marketing certified seed. In addition to these highlights, the report discusses many positive developments as well as areas for improvement in Ghana’s formal seed sector. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:tasaii:317010&r= |
| By: | Liu, Francis; Packham, Natalie; Lu, Meng-Jou; Härdle, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | The introduction of derivatives on Bitcoin enables investors to hedge risk exposures in cryptocurrencies. Because of volatility swings and jumps in cryptocurrency prices, the traditional variance-based approach to obtain hedge ratios is infeasible. As a consequence, we consider two extensions of the traditional approach: first, different dependence structures are modelled by different copulae, such as the Gaussian, Student-t, Normal Inverse Gaussian and Archimedean copulae; second, different risk measures, such as value-at-risk, expected shortfall and spectral risk measures are employed to and the optimal hedge ratio. Extensive out-of-sample tests give insights in the practice of hedging various cryptos and crypto indices, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, the CRIX index and a number of crypto-portfolios in the time period December 2017 until May 2021. Evidences show that BTC futures can effectively hedge BTC and BTC-involved indices. This promising result is consistent across different risk measures and copulae except for Frank. On the other hand, we observe complex and diverse dependence structures between BTC-not-involved assets and the futures. As a consequence, results of hedging other assets and indices are diverse and, in some occasions, not ideal. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies,risk management,hedging,copulas |
| JEL: | G11 G13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2022001&r= |
| By: | Maria De Paola (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF, Università della Calabria); Francesca Gioia (Dipartimento di Scienze Giuridiche "Cesare Beccaria", Università di Milano); Vincenzo Scoppa (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF, Università della Calabria) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic forced schools and universities to transit from traditional class-based teaching to online learning. This paper investigates the impact produced by this shift on students’ performance. We use administrative data of four cohorts of students enrolled in an Italian University and adopt a difference-in-differences strategy exploiting the fact that the transition to online teaching has taken place at the beginning of the second semester, while classes were face-to-face in the first semester. We compare students’ performance in the second semester of 2020 with their performance in the first semester and contrast this difference with the difference between second and first semester in the previous academic years. Controlling for a number of variables proxying for COVID-19 incidence and internet connections' quality, we find that online teaching has reduced students’ performance of about 1.4 credits per semester (0.11 Standard Deviations). Freshmen are those who suffer more, while almost no negative effect is found for Master’s Degree students. Since the need for self-discipline in an online environment could cause students’ low achievements, we study the role of procrastination and show that online teaching has been particularly detrimental for students affected by present-bias problems. |
| Keywords: | Team, Online Teaching, Students’ Performance, COVID-19, Procrastination |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I28 D90 L86 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clb:wpaper:202202&r= |
| By: | Kaisa Kotakorpi; Satu Metsälampi; Topi Miettinen; Tuomas Nurminen |
| Abstract: | We investigate effects of tax reporting mechanisms on evasion and incidence in experimental double auction markets where counterfactual reporting and market outcomes can be studied after convergence. There are two control conditions: (i) markets without taxes and (ii) markets where taxes are automatically levied. These are compared to (iii) markets with seller-reporting only and fines paid if low-probability audit discovers evasion, to (iv) markets with both seller- and buyer-reporting and a higher audit probability due to any gap in the numbers reported by the seller and her customers, and to (v) markets where, in addition, buyer-reporting is costly. The latter two mimic varying reporting incentives in the so called third-party reporting in tax enforcement. We find that 20% of the sellers are truthful when only sellers report, but that 80% and 66% of them are truthful under costless and costly third-party reporting, respectively. Pricing, incidence, and reporting patterns in all treatments can be explained by a model of lying costs with image concerns based on Gneezy et al. (2018). |
| JEL: | H21 H22 H26 D40 D44 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tam:wpaper:2133&r= |
| By: | Ali Enami (The University of Akron); Patricio Larroulet (Center for the Study of the State and Society (CEDES)); Nora Lustig (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | The Kakwani index of progressivity is commonly used to establish whether the effect of a specific tax or transfer is equalizing. However, in the presence of reranking or the Lambert conundrum, a progressive tax could be unequalizing. While it is mathematically possible for counterintuitive results to occur, how common are they in actual fiscal systems? Using a novel dataset that includes fiscal incidence results for 39 countries, we find that the likelihood of the Kakwani index to be progressive (regressive) while the tax or transfer is unequalizing (equalizing) is minimal, except in the case of indirect taxes: in roughly 25 percent of our sample, regressive indirect taxes are equalizing (sign-inconsistent cases). Additionally, the likelihood that the index ranks the magnitude of the impact of a tax or a transfer wrongly exists but is also small. Finally, using regression analysis, we find that increasing the size or progressivity of a progressive tax (transfer) is equalizing and statistically robust for sign-consistent cases. For sign-inconsistent cases, the coefficient for the Kakwani index is not statistically significant. In sum, although the Kakwani index could yield interpretations that are inaccurate in actual fiscal systems, the risk seems small except for indirect taxes. |
| Keywords: | Kakwani index, fiscal redistribution, reranking, progressivity, marginal contribution, taxes, transfers, Lambert |
| JEL: | D31 D63 H22 H23 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2022-601&r= |
| By: | Paola Bertoli; Veronica Grembi; Massimo Morelli; Anna Rosso |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of statistical information on the propensity to favor a specific group of recipients when allocating a scarce public resource. We refer to scarce resource with reference to the COVID-19 emergency: allocation of the first round of vaccine and the allocation of financial resources provided by the Italian national government to fight the economic emergency triggered by the pandemic. Randomly allocating the information through an online experiment, we show that treated respondents tend to prioritize the group targeted by the information, and they are more likely to do so if they are "in the middle", in terms of age, political preferences, religiosity and education. |
| Keywords: | Sensitivity to Information, Beliefs Update, Scarce Resources Distribution |
| JEL: | D70 D80 D83 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21168&r= |
| By: | Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski; Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron; Jakub Pawłowski; Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska |
| Abstract: | We develop an empirically grounded agent-based model to explore the purchasing decisions of mutually interacting agents (consumers) between three types of alternative fuel vehicles. We calibrate the model with recently published empirical data on consumer preferences towards such vehicles. Furthermore, running the Monte Carlo simulations, we show possible scenarios for the development of the alternative fuel vehicle market depending on the marketing strategies employed. |
| Keywords: | Agent-based model; Diffusion; Alternative fuel vehicles |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2201&r= |
| By: | Hughes, Karl; Priyadarshini, Pratiti; Sharma, Himani; Lissah, Sanoop; Chorran, Tenzin; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Dogra, Atul; Cook, Nathan; Andersson, Krister |
| Abstract: | India has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the context of a larger quasi-experimental impact assessment, we assess the pandemic’s effects on coping behavior in 80 villages spread across four districts and three states (n=772). Half of these villages were targeted by a largescale common land restoration program spearheaded by an NGO, the Foundation for Ecological Security (FES). The other half are yet to be targeted but are statistically similar vis-Ã -vis FES’s village targeting criteria. Analyzing the results of a phone survey conducting eight to ten months into the pandemic and its associated lockdowns, we find that the livelihood activities of households in both sets of villages were adversely impacted by COVID-19. Consequently, most households had to resort to various coping strategies, e.g., distressed asset sales and reduced farm input expenditure. From the same mobile survey data, we further construct a Livelihoods Coping Strategies Index (LCSI) and find that households in villages targeted by FES’s common land restoration initiative score 11.3% lower on this index on average. While modest, this statistically significant effect estimate (p |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; resilience; restoration; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; institutions; impact assessment; models; coping strategies; quasi-experimental; Andhra Pradesh; Karnataka; Rajasthan |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2056&r= |
| By: | Gianluca Grimalda (Kiel Institute for the World Economy; Centre for Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg-Essen; Jaume I University); Fabrice Murtin (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)); David Pipke (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Louis Putterman (Brown University); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, University of Cologne, University of Innsbruck, IZA, and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between political attitudes and prosociality in a survey of a representative sample of the U.S. population during the first summer of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that an experimental measure of prosociality correlates positively with adherence to protective behaviors. Liberal political ideology predicts higher levels of protective behavior than conservative ideology, independently of the differences in prosociality across the two groups. Differences between liberals and conservatives are up to 4.4 times smaller in their behavior than in judging the government’s crisis management. This result suggests that U.S. Americans are more polarized on ideological than behavioral grounds. |
| Keywords: | Polarization, Ideology, Trust in politicians, COVID-19, Prosociality, Health behavior, Worries |
| JEL: | D01 D72 D91 I12 I18 H11 H12 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2022_01&r= |
| By: | Dzieliński, Michał (Stockholm Business School, Stockholm University); Eugster, Florian (Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum)); Sjöström, Emma (Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum)); Wagner, Alexander F. (University of Zurich, CEPR, ECGI, and Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a major concern for many companies, but it has not historically featured much in earnings conference calls. We find a marked increase in climate talk on these calls in recent years. We also find that climate talk is negatively related to the change in CO2 emissions (especially Scope 2) in the year after the call, particularly in firms with high overall environmental and governance ratings. Conversely, investors react particularly negatively to climate talk when it comes from a firm with low levels of ESG performance or following poor earnings performance. Finally, a firm employs more climate talk when it is more material, when there is greater shareholder pressure or when it is better prepared for climate-related disclosure. Overall, these results suggest that investors and other stakeholders interested in corporate climate action should be paying attention to earnings conference calls as a source of useful information about companies’ broader stance on climate-related issues. |
| Keywords: | climate talk; earnings calls; sustainability; CO2 emissions; greenwashing |
| JEL: | D83 G14 G34 G41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2022_006&r= |
| By: | Anikó Bíró (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel Prinz (Institute for Fiscal Studies); László Sándor (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We study the taxation of the minimum wage in an environment with imperfect enforcement and informality. We leverage an increase in the audit threat for earnings below a reporting threshold at twice the minimum wage in Hungary and estimate reporting and employment responses with administrative panel data. Using bunching estimators and difference-in-differences methods, we show that a substantial share of those who report earning the minimum wage earn at least the same amount off the books. When enforcement is imperfect, a taxed minimum wage serves as a backstop on underreporting and recovers some revenue but also increases informality. |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/41&r= |
| By: | Andrzej Baranski; D.J. da Cunha Batista Geraldes; Ada Kovaliukaite; James Tremewan |
| Abstract: | Does the gender composition of committees affect negotiations in majoritarian bargaining? We report the results of an experiment in which subjects are placed in triads to negotiate the division of a sum of money under majority rule and the gender composition of the group is manipulated, ranging from all female (FFF), female majority (FFM), male majority (MMF), to all male (MMM). Results show that men are more likely to make the opening offer, and contrary to our hypothesis, agreements are reached fastest in MMM and slowest in FFF. The proportion of grand coalitions is increasing in the number of females while minimal winning coalitions (MWCs) increase monotonically in the number of males. MWCs are disproportionately more likely to be same-gender in MMF, which leads to a gender gap in earnings compared to FFM. When provisional MWCs form prior to a final agreement, excluded men are more proactive than excluded women in attempting to break the coalition by making alluring offers, which partially explains why mixed gender MWCs are less frequent in MMF compared to FFM. Notably, some females adopt male-type behavior in MMF regarding their initial proposals and aggressiveness when left out from a MWC. |
| Keywords: | Unstructured bargaining, gender differences, experiment |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2102&r= |
| By: | Strittmatter, Anthony (CREST-ENSAE); Sunde, Uwe (LMU Munich); Zegners, Dainis (Rotterdam School of Management) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between decision speed and decision quality for a real-world setting of cognitively-demanding decisions in which the timing of decisions is endogenous: professional chess. Move-by-move data provide exceptionally detailed and precise information about decision times and decision quality, based on a comparison of actual decisions to a computational benchmark of best moves constructed using the artificial intelligence of a chess engine. The results reveal that faster decisions are associated with better performance. The findings are consistent with the predictions of procedural decision models like drift-diffusion-models in which decision makers sequentially acquire information about decision alternatives with uncertain valuations. |
| Keywords: | response times; speed-performance profile; drift-diffusion model; uncertain evaluations; |
| JEL: | D01 |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:317&r= |
| By: | Max Franks (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Technische Universität Berlin); Matthias Kalkuhl (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, University of Potsdam); Kai Lessmann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best subsidies for CDR when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage, terms-of-trade and fossil resource rent dynamics. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, terms-of-trade effects exacerbate this wedge for net resource exporters, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, the optimal removal subsidy may fall below the carbon tax for resource-poor countries when marginal environmental damages are small. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, trade, unilateral climate policy, terms-of-trade effects, removal subsidies |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q37 Q5 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:43&r= |
| By: | Jhaveri, Nayna |
| Abstract: | Gender relations in households and communities play a formative role in how tenure rights — such as access to, use, and management of land and various natural resources — are practiced across multifunctional landscapes. Such rights can be based on statutory recognition or on customary tenure arrangements. Women’s tenure rights are generally weaker than men’s, both in terms of the range of rights they can assert and the degree of authority over those rights. In addition, women often hold a more informal and negotiated set of rights than men, be it for private or collective use of land and natural resources. These gender differences are the outcome of decision-making and governance at the household and community level. In any rural landscape in developing countries, a household’s livelihood portfolio will be affected by the gender dynamics at work across the landscape mosaic of different tenure niches. For example, women may easily access privately owned home gardens (one type of tenure niche) to harvest a range of vegetables, fruits, and medicinal plants, but not so easily access trees in collective forests for harvesting timber to sell in the market. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, gender, tenure security, land governance, governance, landscape, poverty reduction, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379993&r= |
| By: | Grant Miller (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Áureo de Paula (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Christine Valente (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | One-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not use contraceptives. To study this issue, we collect detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Our results indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. Results from a within-subject experiment testing this last finding are highly consistent with the structural estimates. |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/23&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The labour market outcomes for native- and foreign-born adults during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic vary considerably across countries – with inequalities in employment even falling in some cases compared to 2017. In contrast with the 2008 financial crisis, greater educational attainment does not seem to have had a clear protective effect against labour market adversities during the pandemic. This is most likely due to countries’ quick action to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic and the high involvement of workers with low qualifications to maintain essential services during prolonged confinement periods. However, in some countries, inequalities in earnings were widening before the pandemic and unless appropriate measures are put in place, the economic effects of the current crisis may have a long-lasting negative effect on the integration of immigrants. |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaaf:80-en&r= |
| By: | Xiyang Hu; Yan Huang; Beibei Li; Tian Lu |
| Abstract: | We develop a structural econometric model to capture the decision dynamics of human evaluators on an online micro-lending platform, and estimate the model parameters using a real-world dataset. We find two types of biases in gender, preference-based bias and belief-based bias, are present in human evaluators' decisions. Both types of biases are in favor of female applicants. Through counterfactual simulations, we quantify the effect of gender bias on loan granting outcomes and the welfare of the company and the borrowers. Our results imply that both the existence of the preference-based bias and that of the belief-based bias reduce the company's profits. When the preference-based bias is removed, the company earns more profits. When the belief-based bias is removed, the company's profits also increase. Both increases result from raising the approval probability for borrowers, especially male borrowers, who eventually pay back loans. For borrowers, the elimination of either bias decreases the gender gap of the true positive rates in the credit risk evaluation. We also train machine learning algorithms on both the real-world data and the data from the counterfactual simulations. We compare the decisions made by those algorithms to see how evaluators' biases are inherited by the algorithms and reflected in machine-based decisions. We find that machine learning algorithms can mitigate both the preference-based bias and the belief-based bias. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.03092&r= |
| By: | Martin Henseler (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Helene Maisonnave; Asiya Maskaeva |
| Abstract: | The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has affected the tourism sector by closing borders, reducing both the transportation of tourists and tourist demand. Developing countries, such as Tanzania, where the tourism sector contributes a high share to gross domestic product, are facing considerable economic consequences. Tourism interlinks domestic sectors such as transport, accommodation, beverages and food, and retail trade and thus plays an important role in household income. Our study assessed the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism sector and the Tanzanian economy as a case study of an impacted developing economy. We used a computable general equilibrium model framework to simulate the economic impacts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and quantitatively analysed the economic impacts. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Tourism,Tanzania,Developing country,Computable general equilibrium model JEL code: I18 |
| Date: | 2021–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03501722&r= |
| By: | Janeba, Eckhard (Dept. of Economics, University of Mannheim); Schjelderup, Guttorm (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The OECD's proposal for a global minimum tax (GMT) of 15% aims for a reversal of a decades-long race to the bottom of corporate tax rates driven by competition over real investments and profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions. We study the revenue effects of the GMT by focusing on the induced strategic tax setting effects. The direct effect of the GMT is a reduction in profit shifting, which has a positive effect on revenues in high-tax countries as their tax base grows, and makes higher taxes attractive. A secondary effect, however, is that the value of attracting real foreign investments increases, which intensifies tax competition. We argue that the revenue effects of the GMT depend on the instruments governments use to attract firms. With endogenous corporate tax rates, revenues in non-havens increase if initially tax competition among non-havens is fierce. By contrast, when governments compete via lump sum subsidies, the revenue gains from less profit shifting are exactly offset by higher subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Global Minimum Tax; Tax Competition; OECD BEPS; Pillar II |
| JEL: | F23 F55 H25 H73 |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2022_006&r= |
| By: | Kato, Edward; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Tiruneh, Solomon; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Land degradation is a pressing global challenge, with three billion people residing in degraded landscapes. The global cost of land degradation is estimated to be about $300 billion per year, with Africa south of the Sahara accounting for 26 percent of the total global costs due to land-use and land-cover changes. In Ethiopia, it is estimated that more than 85 percent of land is moderately to severely degraded due to changes in land use and cover, costing the country an estimated US$4.3 billion annually. In order to halt further degradation and support essential restoration through sustainable land management (SLM) and related investments, the Water and Land Resource Center (WLRC) and its consortium of development partners established six learning watersheds in Central and North-Western Ethiopia with the ultimate goal of improving water security and crop and livestock productivity. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, sustainability, sustainable land management, land management, gender, agricultural productivity, watersheds, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprea:november2021&r= |
| By: | Nobuyuki Hanaki; Keigo Inukai; Takehito Masuda; Yuta Shimodaira |
| Abstract: | We address a concern about the external validity, in particular, the representativeness of the sampled population, of an experiment conducted with university students. We do so by conducting large-scale (partly) incentivized online surveys of students at a Japanese university and of a sample of Japanese adults to measure individual characteristics such as cognitive ability, mentalizing skills, preferences for risk and distribution, and personality traits. While significant differences between these two samples are observed in many of these characteristics, the correlational structures among these characteristics are very similar in the two samples. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1160&r= |
| By: | Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Diese Studie diskutiert die Rolle der österreichischen Gemeinden im Hinblick auf Bildung, Pflege und Klima vor dem Hintergrund der Einnahmen- und Ausgabenentwicklung und des Finanzausgleichs. Die Covid-19-Krise wirkt sich negativ auf die Gemeindefinanzen aus, die Steuerreform verursacht Mindereinnahmen. Zwei Gemeindepakete kompensierten teilweise die krisenbedingten Einnahmenausfälle. Doch die Nettoinvestitionen der Gemeinden sanken im Jahr 2020. Ein Investitionsstau – wie nach der Finanzkrise – könnte zu erheblichen langfristigen Problemen im Bildungs-, Pflege- und Klimabereich führen. Die Studie diskutiert politische Handlungsoptionen, um die Gemeinden im Hinblick auf das Tätigen von wichtigen Investitionen und Zukunftsausgaben in den Kernbereichen Bildung, Klima und Pflege zu unterstützen. Eine zentrale Rolle spielt dabei der kommende Finanzausgleich. English Summary Austria's Municipalities in the Context of the Covid-19 Crisis Fiscal Equalisation in the Face of Rising Investment Needs and Declining Revenue This study discusses the role of Austrian municipalities with regard to education, care and climate against the background of revenue and expenditure developments and fiscal equalisation. The Covid-19 crisis has a negative impact on municipal finances, the tax reform leads to revenue shortfalls. Two municipal packages partially compensated for the crisis-related revenue shortfalls. But the net investments of municipalities declined in 2020. An investment backlog - like after the financial crisis - could lead to significant long-term problems in education, care and climate policy. The study discusses policy options for strengthening the finances of municipalities and their investment activities. |
| Keywords: | Gemeinden, Österreich, Investitionen, Finanzausgleich, Fiskalpolitik, Verschuldung, Bildung, Pflege, Klima |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H74 H75 H76 H77 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:20&r= |
| By: | Olga Chiappinelli; Gyula Seres |
| Abstract: | We consider a Green Public Procurement setting where the procurer provides a bid discount to environment-friendly technologies to foster their use. We assume that, before the auction, firms may switch to green technology via a publicly observable costly investment. We show that investment acts as a signaling device. This mitigates the effect of incomplete information on firms’ costs, thereby triggering more competitive bidding, which results in lower prices for the procurer. Therefore, even a procurer with no preference toward green technology can find it optimal to use a discount. Our results challenge the common perception that Green Public Procurement always implies a trade-off between environmental performance and purchasing price. |
| Keywords: | Public Procurement; Environmental Policy; Auctions |
| JEL: | D44 H57 Q58 Q55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1983&r= |
| By: | Akitada Kasahara (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Xin Zhong (Independent Researcher) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the robustness of post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) using recent data from the Japanese market. PEAD is the tendency for stocks to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise. Many behavioral finance models have been developed for PEAD since it is hard to explain within risk-based rational asset pricing framework. Recent studies using US data argue that PEAD can be observed only among extremely illiquid and small stocks. This paper confirms that PEAD continues to exist in the Japanese market, and its effect becomes weaker when the liquidity and size are controlled. However, the effect cannot be explained by either liquidity or size premium with factor models. |
| Keywords: | PEAD, liquidity premium |
| JEL: | G12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2125&r= |
| By: | Rituparna Sen; Anandamayee Majumdar; Shubhangi Sikaria |
| Abstract: | We develop a multivariate functional autoregressive model (MFAR), which captures the cross-correlation among multiple functional time series and thus improves forecast accuracy. We estimate the parameters under the Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM) framework. In order to capture Granger causality from one FAR series to another we employ Bayes Factor. Motivated by the broad application of functional data in finance, we investigate the causality between the yield curves of two countries. Furthermore, we illustrate a climatology example, examining whether the weather conditions Granger cause pollutant daily levels in a city. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15315&r= |
| By: | Maria Nieto |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the most recent NDCs as well as public political commitments of the US, China, the EU and Japan (56% of the world GHG emissions) to meet the goal of reaching the 2050 net zero emissions target necessary to limit global warming to the 1.5C. This analysis is made against the background of the transition pathways defined by the REMIND-MAgPIE 2.1-4.2 integrated assessment model for an orderly transition to reach that target. The commitments of US, China, the EU and Japan are not in line with the requirements to limit global warming. Only the EU seems to have an adequate, sufficiently detailed and legally binding strategy to fulfill that pledge. This finding is in line with the recent United Nations Report concluding that even with enhanced 2030 targets and the additional public statements, the world is on track for a temperature increase between 1.8-2.4C this century even assuming that every country puts in place effective policies that will fully achieve its set targets. In all four regions of the world and particularly in 2025-2030, the orderly transition to net zero around 2050 demands the highest investments in renewable energies for electricity, CCUS and energy efficiency. China, the most critical to reach global carbon neutrality, is by far the most highly dependent on CCUS and, more generally, on CDR technologies to reach the 2050 net zero target due to an energy mix dominated by fossil fuels. |
| Keywords: | Environment, international public goods, environmental economics-technological innovation |
| JEL: | F64 L38 O44 Q55 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp22170&r= |
| By: | Mara Barschkett; Johannes Geyer; Peter Haan; Anna Hammerschmid |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the causal effect of an increase in the retirement age on health. We exploit a sizable cohort-specific pension reform for women using two complementary empirical approaches - a Regression Discontinuity Design and a Difference-in- Differences approach. The analysis is based on official records covering all individuals insured by the public health system in Germany and including all certified diagnoses by practitioners. This enables us to gain a detailed understanding of the multi-dimensionality in these health effects. The empirical findings reflect the multidimensionality but allow for deriving two broader conclusions. We provide evidence that the increase in the retirement age negatively affects health outcomes as the prevalence of several diagnoses, e.g., mental health, musculoskeletal diseases, and obesity, increases. In contrast, we do not find support for an improvement in health related to a prolonged working life since there is no significant evidence for a reduction in the prevalence of any health outcome we consider. These findings hold for both identification strategies, are robust to sensitivity checks, and do not change when correcting for multiple hypothesis testing. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Retirement, Pension reform, Health, ICD-10, Regression Discontinuity Design, Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I18 J14 J18 J26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1985&r= |
| By: | Dana Foarta |
| Abstract: | The organizational structure of the bureaucracy is a key determinant of policy outcomes. Bureaucratic agencies exhibit wide variation in their organizational capacity, which allows politicians to strategically shape policy implementation. This paper examines what bureaucratic structure implies for the ability of voters to hold politicians electorally accountable. It explicitly models di erences in organizational capacity across bureaucratic agencies and considers a problem where a politician must decide not only which policy to choose but which agency, or combination of agencies, will implement it. The choice of implementation feeds back into the choice of policy and this, in turn, a ects how voters perceive the performance of the incumbent. This creates a chain of interdependence from agency structure to policy choice and political accountability. The formal model shows that the variation in organizational capacity serves the interests of voters by improving electoral control of politicians. |
| Keywords: | organizational capacity, electoral accountability, bureaucratic politics |
| JEL: | D73 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21156&r= |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Christine Farquharson (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen); Maud Pecher (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the short- and medium-term heath impacts of Sure Start, a large-scale and univer-sal early childhood program in England. We exploit the rollout of the program and implement a difference-in-difference approach, combining data on the exact location and opening date of Sure Start centers with administrative data on the universe of admissions to public-sector hospitals. Exposure to an additional Sure Start center per thousand age-eligible children increases hospitalization by 10% at age 1 (around 6,700 hospitalizations per year), but reduces them by 8-9% across ages 11 to 15 (around 13,150 hospitalizations per year). These findings show that early childhood programs that are less intensive than small-scale ‘model programs’ can deliver significant health benefits, even in contexts with universal healthcare. Impacts are driven by hospitalizations for preventable conditions and are concentrated in disadvantaged areas, suggesting that enriching early childhood environments might be a successful strategy to reduce inequalities in health. |
| Date: | 2021–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/25&r= |
| By: | Noam Bergman (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School, University of Sussex); Tim Foxon (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School, University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | The world is currently facing two socio-technical transitions: shifting to a low-carbon society, and a digital revolution. Despite some claims to the contrary, evidence suggests that spread and adoption of ICT does not automatically lead to reduction in energy demand, if this stimulates new energy-using practices or wider economic growth. Despite this policy challenge, the two transitions are often considered separately. This study examines potential drivers of reductions or increases in energy demand due to digitalisation identified in recent leading global and UK net zero transitions scenarios. These include direct effects, indirect and rebound effects relating to home energy use and transport, and effects on economic growth. The scenarios are first analysed in relation to how they are situated in relation to different framing assumptions: (1) the relative focus on decarbonising energy supply or managing energy demand; (2) a focus on green growth or shifting to a focus on wellbeing (or even degrowth); (3) the extent to which they assume dominant business models led by large ICT firms, or alternative business models which empower communities and users; and (4) the extent to which they envisage key roles for ICT in relation to automation for optimising energy supply and demand or for empowering agency of users. Specific direct, indirect and economic growth effects of digitalisation on energy demand are then identified, which reflect these and other projections in the scenarios. These imply that the future pathways adopted for digitalisation will have a significant impact on future energy demand and hence on the feasibility and acceptability of achieving net zero goals. This suggests opportunities for further research and improving policy interactions between these two transitions, and stimulating greater public debate on the different framings for an ICT-driven low carbon transition. |
| Keywords: | digital, energy demand, low carbon targets, long-term scenarios |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2021-09&r= |
| By: | Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo; Ilai Levin; Alessia Pagani; Mauro Pisu; Åsa Johansson |
| Abstract: | Global progress towards tackling climate change is lagging. This paper puts forward a framework to design comprehensive decarbonisation strategies while promoting growth and social inclusion. It first highlights the need of evaluating a country’s national climate targets and current policy mix, in conjunction with facilitating monitoring tools to assess current and future progress, as a key step to design effective decarbonisation strategies. It then provides a detailed comparison of several policy instruments across different assessment criteria, which indicates that no single instrument is clearly superior to all others. This highlights the need for developing decarbonisation strategies based on a wide policy mix consisting of three main components: 1) emission pricing policy instruments; 2) standards and regulations; 3) complementary policies to facilitate the reallocation of capital, labour and innovation towards low-carbon activities and to offset the adverse distributional effects of reducing emissions. However, there is no one-size-fits-all policy mix, as feasible policy choices depend on countries’ industrial structure, social preferences and political constraints. A robust and independent institutional framework, stakeholders engagement and credible communication campaigns are key to managing these constraints and ultimately enhancing public acceptance of climate mitigation policies. |
| Keywords: | climate change, emission pricing, green investments, green R&D and innovation, green standards and regulations, growth and inclusion, mitigation policies, political economy of climate policy |
| JEL: | H54 P48 Q42 Q52 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaab:31-en&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The 2016–20 ECF/EFF helped rehabilitate Moldova’s banking sector, bolstering macro-financial stability. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, drought in 2020, and the ongoing surge in global energy prices, have slowed economic activity, intensified downside risks, and complicated policy making. While emergency financial assistance under a blended RCF/RFI (100 percent of quota) and SDR allocation (US$236 million) helped cushion the pandemic’s impact, Moldova remains among the poorest countries in Europe with long-standing governance and structural weaknesses inhibiting income convergence. |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/001&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) came into effect in 2013 to reduce rising public debt and achieve fiscal stability. Maldives has experienced rapid public debt accumulation over the past decade. The FRA establishes objectives for maintaining debt at a sustainable level and reducing the overall fiscal balance. The Act also sets minimum standards for fiscal transparency and accountability and requires the Government to prepare and publish medium-term fiscal and debt strategy reports. |
| Date: | 2022–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/010&r= |
| By: | Christian Morabito; Vincenzo Mauro; Monica Pratesi |
| Abstract: | The goal of the paper is to fix the ideas on the current state of the art on the definition and measure of educational poverty (EP). The main concepts involved in the definition of EP are reviewed under the multidimentional approach to the definition of poverty. The main indicators are recalled and described to pave the way towards the definition of a multidimentional educational poverty set of indicators under the theoretical framework of basic capabilities. The issue is relevant to design and monitor the national action plans for the implementation of the EU Childhood Guarantee initiative Lacks of data on child poverty and deprivation in education need to be overcome to provide detailed and timely evidence to policy making. |
| Keywords: | Educational poverty, Multidimentional indicators |
| JEL: | C43 C81 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2021/280&r= |
| By: | Morita, Hiroshi; Ono, Taiki |
| Abstract: | Measuring uncertainty and its economic impact are of major concern during the unprecedented crisis triggered by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This paper constructs a newspaper-based measure that captures the uncertainty induced by COVID-19 and examines its economic impacts using a structural VAR model applied to Japanese data. We develop two types of uncertainty indices and identify two types of structural shocks in the VAR model: one measuring an epidemiological uncertainty, the other a policy-related uncertainty. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, the constructed series of uncertainty shows a spike after COVID-19 related events, indicating that our indices work well as a measure of COVID-19 induced uncertainty. Second, stock market variables show statistically significant responses to a policy-related uncertainty shock rather than an epidemiological uncertainty shock. Third, in contrast, real variables such as mobility and consumption tend to respond significantly to an epidemiological uncertainty shock. These findings highlight the importance of considering different types of uncertainty in order to properly assess the impact of COVID-19 induced uncertainty on economic activity. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, uncertainty, newspaper-based approach, VAR model |
| JEL: | C32 D80 E44 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-116&r= |
| By: | CRUCITTI Francesca (European Commission - JRC); LAZAROU Nicholas (European Commission - JRC); MONFORT Philippe; SALOTTI Simone (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | We assess the macroeconomic impact of the EU cohesion policy investments deployed during the 2014-2020 programming period, employing updated data on planned expenditures, which in most Member States will take place until 2023. We use the spatial dynamic general equilibrium RHOMOLO in order to quantify the direct and indirect effects of the policy investments in the NUTS 2 regions of the EU within a 20-year time frame. The results suggest that the impact of the policy is sizeable, especially in the less developed regions of the EU. Accordingly, regional disparities are shown to decrease thanks to the policy intervention. The policy also has a positive impact at the EU level, GDP in the EU being 0.4% higher in 2021 compared to a scenario without cohesion policy. |
| Keywords: | rhomolo, region, growth, Cohesion policy, regional growth, regional development, general equilibrium modelling |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202201&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic upset both the economies of most countries, but also the field of medical science. As never, public opinion has interfered in the choice of therapeutic trials as evidenced by the controversies surrounding protocols using hydroxychloroquine. The public's choice for these treatments is explained as the application of a kind of individual "Pascal's wager". This article analyses the formation of the belief system of individuals by applying ambiguity theory's insights and information entropy. It shows that the public's choices are the result of efficient communication strategies chosen by these treatments' promoters. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty Theory,Ambiguity,Pharmacy,Medicine JEL : I1,I18,I19,D81,L65 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502609&r= |
| By: | Vos, Rob; Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | Child labour in agriculture remains a global concern. Agriculture is the sector where most child labour is found. Employment of children mostly relates to farm household poverty in developing countries. This raises the question of the extent to which the modernisation of agriculture prevents the use of child labour while also leading to higher productivity. One of the central questions in this context is whether agricultural mechanisation helps limit children’s employment. Available studies have put forward opposing hypotheses, but rigorous empirical evidence is scant. The present study aims to fill some of this void by studying the evidence from comparable farm household survey data in seven developing countries, including three in Asia (India, Nepal, and Vietnam) and four in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania). Various key findings emerge. First, many children are found to engage in productive activities in studied countries. The prevalence is particularly high in African countries, such as in Ethiopia where more than one third of children aged 5-14 years engage in farm or off-farm work. Second, while the prevalence of child labour in agriculture (i.e., when productive engagement is detrimental to schooling and child growth) is much lower (at 10% or less in seven countries), they are still sizable in absolute terms; at least 6 million children in these countries partake in agricultural work at the expense of opportunities in adulthood. Third, agricultural mechanization, reflected in farm household’s use of machinery such as tractors, significantly reduces the likelihood of use of children’s labour and increases school attendance. Fourth, the measured impacts of mechanization are only modest, however, and likely indirect, that is, dependent on the extent to which mechanization helps improve household income and on local conditions (such as quality of rural infrastructure and accessibility of education and other social services). Overall, promotion of agricultural mechanization can help prevent use of child labour. To be truly impactful, however, related support measures should be embedded in broader strategies to enable agricultural productivity growth and improve livelihoods of poor rural households. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; NEPAL; VIET NAM; VIETNAM; SOUTH EAST ASIA; ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; GHANA; WEST AFRICA; NIGERIA; TANZANIA; employment; children; labour; agriculture; child labour; agricultural mechanization; developing countries; farms; households |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2080&r= |
| By: | Sylvia Kaufmann (Study Center Gerzensee) |
| Abstract: | We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts implied by quarterly forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:2202&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The expected macroeconomic recovery has materialized. Seychelles remains a leader in vaccine coverage at home, and the widespread availability of vaccines in Seychelles’ key tourist markets, particularly Europe, is contributing to a strong rebound in tourism. The economic outlook, while positive, remains subject to the uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. |
| Date: | 2022–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/006&r= |
| By: | Miwa Nakai; Majah-Leah V. Ravago; Yoichi Miyaoka; Kiyoshi Saito; Toshi. H Arimura |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to examine consumer behaviour concerning energy-efficient appliances in the context of a developing country. As a case study, we use the Philippines, one of the earliest countries in Southeast Asia to introduce appliance test standards. We conducted face-to-face surveys of potential purchasers of air conditioners (ACs) in Metropolitan Manila, where the percentage of AC owners has increased as a result of economic growth. The survey includes choice experiment questions to estimate preferences for AC attributes, including purchase price, additional functions, country of manufacturer and energy efficiency information. In addition, we examine the types of information on eco labels that encourage consumers to choose an energy-efficient AC, including the default option of an energy efficiency ratio, estimated cost per hour or an energy star rating. Our choice experiment analysis reveals that energy-efficient ACs made by domestic manufacturers with smart functions are more likely to be chosen by consumers. We find that the probability of an energy-efficient AC being chosen can be increased by approximately 15% if the eco label uses an energy star rating rather than an energy efficiency ratio. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e166&r= |
| By: | Farshad Noravesh; Hamid Boustanifar |
| Abstract: | The problem that is solved in this paper is known as index tracking. The method of Lasso is used to reduce the dimensions of S&P500 index which has many applications in both investment and portfolio management algorithms. The novelty of this paper is that post-selection inference is used to have better modeling and inference for Lasso approach to index tracking. Both confidence intervals and curves indicate that the performance of Lasso type method for dimension reduction of S&P500 is remarkably high. Keywords: index tracking, lasso, post-selection inference, S&P500 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15448&r= |
| By: | Rados{\l}aw A. Kycia; Agnieszka Niemczynowicz; Joanna Nie\.zurawska-Zaj\k{a}c |
| Abstract: | Correlation and cluster analyses (k-Means, Gaussian Mixture Models) were performed on Generation Z engagement surveys at the workplace. The clustering indicates relations between various factors that describe the engagement of employees. The most noticeable factors are a clear statement about the responsibilities at work, and challenging work. These factors are essential in practice. The results of this paper can be used in preparing better motivational systems aimed at Generation Z employees. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15401&r= |
| By: | Konstantins Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga); Ludmila Fadejeva (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel way to evaluate the size of unreported wage payments at employee level. It is only the reported employer-employee income data combined with firm-level financial statements and survey information on various person-level indicators that are required for this purpose. We estimate the Mincer earning regression by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis approach, proxying the unreported wage payments by the non-negative inefficiency term. Our methodology is tested on the Latvian data: we find that small and young firms engage in illegal wage payments more than other firms. Unofficial payments to employees with small reported wages are more frequent and sizeable, revealing lower wage income inequality in Latvia when the unreported wage is taken into account. |
| Keywords: | unreported wage, tax evasion, Mincer earning regression, income distribution |
| JEL: | E26 H26 J08 J31 |
| Date: | 2022–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202201&r= |
| By: | Siemroth, Christoph |
| Abstract: | What can organizations do to minimize wasteful year-end spending before the annual budget expires? I introduce a two-period model to derive the optimal budget rollover and audit rules. A principal tasks an agent with using their budget to fulfill the organization's spending needs, which are private information of the agent. The agent can misuse funds for private benefit at the principal's expense. The principal decides upfront which share of unused funds the agent can roll over to next year, and which spending amounts to audit in order to punish fund misuse. The optimal rules are to allow the agent to roll-over a share of the unused funds, but not necessarily the full share, in most cases to audit only suffciently large spending, and to exert maximum punishment if fund misuse is detected. An extension with endogenous budget levels shows that strategically underfunding the agent can be optimal. |
| Keywords: | Auditing; Budget Carry-Forward; Budget Roll-Over; Fund Misuse, Moral Hazard; Year-End Spending |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esx:essedp:32231&r= |
| By: | Mabaya, Edward; Kachule, Richard; Waithaka, Michael; Mugoya, Mainza; Kanyenji, George; Tihanyi, Krisztina |
| Abstract: | The timely availability of improved seeds at affordable prices is critical to improving food security, resilience, and livelihoods for smallholder farmers in Malawi. Seed of improved varieties can deliver state-of-the-art technology to farmers including higher yields, disease and pest resistance, climate change adaptation, and improved nutrition. This report summarizes the key findings of the study conducted by The African Seed Access Index (TASAI) to appraise the structure and economic performance of Malawi’s formal seed sector. With a focus on the four grain and legume crops important to national food and nutritional security (maize, bean, groundnut, and soya bean) the report covers 22 key performance indicators divided into five categories: Research and Development, Industry Competitiveness, Seed Policy and Regulations, Institutional Support, and Service to Smallholder Farmers. We conclude that Malawi’s formal seed sector is in the growth stage of development. The seed policy environment in Malawi is supportive of private sector growth, but the variety release process and costs are not specified in the seed regulations. The seed market is competitive with multinational and local seed companies producing a wide range of high-quality seed. The government’s Food Input Subsidy Program is a major buyer of seed and has contributed to making seed prices affordable for farmers. In addition to these highlights, the report discusses many positive developments as well as areas for improvement in Malawi’s formal seed sector. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:tasaii:317014&r= |
| By: | Dumitrescu, Raluca (MicroEnergy Systems Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin); Lüth, Alexandra (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Weibezahn, Jens (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Groh, Sebastian (BRAC Business School (BBS), BRAC University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we are proposing a policy innovation for both a more sustainable and a more inclusive electrification strategy, particularly for improved energy access in the Global South: combining the extension of national grids whilst taking advantage of existing decentralized renewable energy infrastructure allowing their collective feed-in to the national grid. We are introducing community power purchase agreements as a regulatory instrument for compensating and incentivizing the actors active at the intersection of the two infrastructures (prosumer, grid operator, state utility).We use both a mixed complementarity and a linear model for analyzing the concept in a case study of Pirgacha village, Bangladesh, in which a cluster of solar home system prosumers are interconnected into a renewable energy swarm grid. We determine the energy infrastructure cost components and their split among the actors. The results demonstrate a series of co-benefits: (a) the prosumer is monetarily rewarded for the utilization of her assets and for electricity trading with no additional infrastructure investment; (b) if the state utility takes over the investment costs with the interconnection infrastructure and outsources the integrated grid operations and maintenance to the private sector, the otherwise high grid expansion costs can be saved and repurposed in other infrastructure investments; (c) the operations of the decentralized renewable energy company are no longer threatened by the grid expansion and it can become an Integrated Grid Operator. |
| Keywords: | Decentralized renewable energy; Swarm grids; Grid integration; Power purchase agreements; Integrated grid operator |
| JEL: | C61 C63 D47 L94 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2021_019&r= |
| By: | Adrian R. Mendoza (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | In light of the unprecedented mutation of the COVID-19 pandemic into a global economic recession, the WTO projects world trade volume to plummet by a staggering 13 percent to 32 percent in 2020. This translates to large-scale losses in global output and employment, especially in trade-oriented emerging economies such as the Philippines. Recovering from this dystopic scenario greatly depends on the duration of the outbreak, the downside risks from protectionist tendencies, the severity of the global recession, and the ability of world leaders to come up with a coordinated policy response. This paper provides a quick assessment of the major risks that must be dealt with to overcome these "four horsemen of trade apocalypse". Anchored on the WTO projections, this paper also assesses the short term prospects for Philippine trade. The results of the forecasting exercise suggest that Philippine merchandise exports could plummet in 2020 by 17.2 percent in the optimistic scenario and 39.5 percent in the pessimistic scenario. Compared to the pre-pandemic government target, the pessimistic case suggests that the country could lose up to US$31 billion export revenues this year due to the COVID-19 crisis. Merchandise imports will also experience a similar decline, albeit less severe. While the negative impact will likely be felt by all sectors, the biggest plunge is expected to be in electronics and other industries that are strongly connected to global production networks. On a positive note, Philippine exports and imports are expected to recover in 2021, albeit not fully, if the global public health crisis is resolved sooner than later. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; global recession; trade collapse; Philippine exports and imports; 2020 projections |
| JEL: | F01 F13 F17 F42 F50 F60 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202005&r= |
| By: | Michele Belloni; Ludovico Carrino; Elena Meschi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal impact of working conditions on mental health in the UK, combining new comprehensive longitudinal data on working conditions from the European Working Condition Survey with microdata from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (Understanding Society). Our empirical strategy accounts for the endogenous sorting of individuals into occupations by including individual fixed effects. It addresses the potential endogeneity of occupational change over time by focusing only on individuals who remain in the same occupation (same ISCO), exploiting the variation in working conditions within each occupation over time. This variation, determined primarily by general macroeconomic conditions, is likely to be exogenous from the individual point of view. Our results indicate that improvements in working conditions have a beneficial, statistically significant, and clinically meaningful impact on depressive symptoms for women. A one standard deviation increase in the skills and discretion index reduces depression score by 2.84 points, which corresponds to approximately 20% of the GHQ score standard deviation, while a one standard deviation increase in working time quality reduces depression score by 0.97 points. The results differ by age: improvements in skills and discretion benefit younger workers (through increases in decision latitude and training) and older workers (through higher cognitive roles), as do improvements in working time quality; changes in work intensity and physical environment affect only younger and older workers, respectively. Each aspect of job quality impacts different dimensions of mental health. Specifically, skills and discretion primarily affect the loss of confidence and anxiety; working time quality impacts anxiety and social dysfunction; work intensity affects the feeling of social dysfunction among young female workers. Finally, we show that improvements in levels of job control (higher skills and discretion) and job demand (lower intensity) lead to greater health benefits, especially for occupations that are inherently characterised by higher job strain. |
| Keywords: | mental health, working conditions, job demand, job control. |
| JEL: | I1 J24 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:487&r= |
| By: | Brown, Alessio J.G. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Global Labor Organization (GLO)); Fraikin, Anne-Lore (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Global Labor Organization (GLO), and Liege University) |
| Abstract: | The objective of the paper is to examine the retirement behaviour of Belgian workers in one-earner households who are automatically granted a more generous old-age pension benefits replacement rate, called the household replacement rate. Following a recommendation of the Belgian Pension Reform Committee, this policy is to be suppressed for new pensioners, except for those receiving the minimum pension. We provide an ex-ante impact evaluation of such reform on both pension sustainability and adequacy measures. Specifically, we test whether the household replacement rate entails a work (dis)incentive mechanism promoting (harming) pension sustainability and furthermore, we analyse the role of the household replacement rate in old-age poverty and inequality measures. To do so, we use the survey dataset SHARE and a discrete time logistic duration model to study the link between retirement and financial retirement incentives created by the social security system. We find that the household replacement rate generates slightly higher retirement incentives through an income effect and we find that the household replacement rate plays an important role in decreasing the elderly poverty rate. Since households with asymmetrical working arrangements are often at the lowest part of the equivalized income distribution, the substantial effect of the household replacement rate on poverty measures is a motive to use such mechanism as a poverty alleviation tool. Nevertheless, we advocate that income redistribution measures should not be tied to a specific household composition and policies such as pensionable earning minima, minimum pension benefits and the inclusion of replacement income periods in the pension benefits calculation effectively serve the income redistribution goal without favouring a certain type of household over another. Overall, despite the positive poverty and distributional aspects of this policy, our analysis supports the reform proposal of removing the household replacement rate. |
| Keywords: | retirement, pension policy, Belgium, impact assessment |
| JEL: | H31 H55 J22 J26 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022004&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Preventive actions and a robust vaccination campaign mitigated the effects of COVID-19 variants on the economy. A nascent recovery, supported by targeted fiscal and monetary measures, is underway, with real GDP growth expected at 2 percent in 2021, strengthening to 2.7 percent in 2022. However, unemployment is persisting at very high levels, particularly for the youth. Core inflation, at 0.7 percent y-o-y in September, is subdued, despite higher fuel prices, reflecting a slow pass-through, but also weak domestic demand. Reserves are comfortable, and dollarization is declining. |
| Date: | 2022–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/004&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Cribb (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Giulia Giupponi (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Bocconi University); Robert Joyce (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Attila Lindner (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Tom Waters (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Thomas Wernham (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Xiaowei Xu (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of the introduction of the UK’s National Living Wage in 2016, and increases in it up to 2019, using a new empirical method. We apply a bunching approach to a setting with no geographical variation in minimum wage rates. We effectively compare employment changes in each part of the wage distribution in low-wage areas to employment changes among similar workers living in higher-wage areas who are less exposed to increases in the national minimum wage because their nominal wages are further above it. We find substantial positive wage effects, including statistically significant spillovers up to around the 20th percentile of wages. Overall we find small negative effects on employment which are not statistically significant. We combine these estimates with a tax and benefit microsimulation model to estimate the impact on household incomes. The largest gains go to the middle of the overall working-age income distribution, though they are more concentrated within the bottom third if we consider only households with someone in paid work. The gains to poorer working households are limited by the withdrawal of means tested benefits as earnings increase. Effects of minimum wages on household incomes are very sensitive to the size of employment effects. |
| Date: | 2021–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/48&r= |
| By: | Ndubuisi, Gideon (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and German Development Institute (DIE)); Owusu, Solomon (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and German Development Institute (DIE)) |
| Abstract: | We examine how participation and positioning in global value chains (GVC) affect wages. We also examine whether this relationship is conditioned by a country's development level and labour market regulation. The results show that participation and upstream specialisation in GVCs are associated with higher wages but only in developed countries. In developing countries, while GVC participation is associated with higher wages, upstream specialisation exerts downward pressure on wages. For analysis focusing on the role of labour market regulation, we find that GVC participation only exerts a positive effect on wages under stringent labour market regulation. Under flexible labour market conditions, it exerts downward pressure on wages but allows for the effective reallocation of GVC workers into knowledge-intensive and high value added upstream activities in the value chain that are more productive and wage rewarding. Additional analysis on the effects of GVCs along the wage distribution show that participation and upstream specialisation in GVCs are associated with higher wages across all wage segments in the developed countries. In developing countries, GVC participation only benefits higher wage earners and make low-wage earners worse-off. Even when upstream specialisation is associated with lower wages across all wage segments, low wage earners are disproportionately affected. |
| Keywords: | Wages, Global Value Chain, GVC Participation, Upstream Specialisation |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J16 O14 O15 P51 |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021042&r= |
| By: | Clulow, Z.; Reiner, D. M. |
| Abstract: | Distrust in science has been linked to scepticism over both vaccines and climate change. We analyse the results of nationally representative online surveys administered in eight key countries critical to global efforts to mitigate climate change and COVID-19 (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Africa, the UK and US). Consistent with previous studies, we find distrust in science is an important explanatory variable for the larger majority of sceptics, those who are sceptical of one or the other issue but not both, across the countries examined. However, the association is significantly weaker among the segment of hardcore persistent sceptics who are both climate sceptics and antivaxxers, instead we find that these individuals, who fit with the typical sceptic profile, are driven by an underlying distrust of elite institutions rather than a specific distrust of scientists. Our results imply that different communications strategies are needed for different types of sceptics. |
| Keywords: | climate scepticism, anti-vaccine, public perceptions, trust, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I12 I18 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2209&r= |
| By: | Jordi Brandts; Sabrine El Baroudi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Stefanie Huber (University of Amsterdam); Christina Rott (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a field and an online classroom experiment to study gender differences in self-set performance goals and their effects on performance in a real-effort task. We distinguish between public and private goals, performance being public and identifiable in both cases. Participants set significantly more ambitious goals when these are public. Women choose lower goals than men in both treatments. Men perform better than women under private and public goals as well as in the absence of goal setting, consistent with the identifiability of performance causing gender differences, as found in other studies. Compared to private goal setting, public goal setting does not affect men’s performance at all but it leads to women’s performance being significantly lower. Comparing self-set goals with actual performance we find that under private goal setting women’s performance is on average 67% of goals, whereas for men it is 57%. Under public goal setting the corresponding percentages are 43% and 39%, respectively. |
| Keywords: | gender differences, goal setting, public observability, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 J01 J16 J82 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220080&r= |
| By: | Giuseppe Danese; Luigi Mittone |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of household products disappearing from supermarket shelves after the COVID-19 outbreak has received strong attention in the media. After a negative shock, household products can be viewed as a common-pool resource subject to a rule of capture by the first appropriator. Using a sample of US participants, we show that when the participants are informed that a fixed supply of facial masks exists, they often coordinate on an egalitarian allocation of masks. In another study in which it is brought to the participants’ attention that COVID-19 disproportionately affects the elderly population, participants 24 or younger spontaneously demand fewer masks than 65 or older participants. A group of incentivized external observers identifies a prudentially-low demand for masks as appropriate in this environment. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, common-pool resource, stockpiling, identified victim |
| JEL: | I12 C92 H41 Q20 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpce:2201&r= |
| By: | McCarthy, Nancy |
| Abstract: | The impacts of climate change are already occurring across the globe, from droughts to floods, damagingly high temperatures, and sea-level rise. Many smallholder farmers were already vulnerable to weather extremes, and in the absence of effective adaptation measures, this vulnerability will only increase over time. While certain weather patterns associated with climate change are happening even now, future changes remain uncertain. Policy-relevant research needs to assess the benefits of flexible responses to future climate changes, while recognizing the costs of flexibility. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, tenure security, land tenure, governance, land governance, landscape, climate change, climate, research, natural resources, shock, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379975&r= |
| By: | E. Raguseo (DIGEP - Department of Management and Production Engineering [Politecnico di Torino] - Polito - Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin); Pigni, F. (Grenoble Ecole de Management); Claudio Vitari (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU ECO - Aix-Marseille Université - Faculté d'économie et de gestion - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Firms can achieve a competitive advantage by leveraging real-time Digital Data Streams (DDSs). The ability to profit from DDSs is emerging as a critical competency for firms and a novel area for Information Technology (IT) investments. We examine the relationship between DDS readiness and competitive advantage by studying the mediation effect of product effectiveness and process efficiency. The research model is tested with data obtained from 302 companies, and the results confirm the existence of the mediation effects. Interestingly, we confirm that competitive advantage is more significantly impacted by IT investments affecting product effectiveness than those affecting process efficiency |
| Keywords: | Streams of big data,process efficiency,product effectiveness,competitive advantage |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-03323663&r= |
| By: | E. Raguseo (DIGEP - Department of Management and Production Engineering [Politecnico di Torino] - Polito - Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin); Pigni, F. (Grenoble Ecole de Management); Claudio Vitari (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU ECO - Aix-Marseille Université - Faculté d'économie et de gestion - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Firms can achieve a competitive advantage by leveraging real-time Digital Data Streams (DDSs). The ability to profit from DDSs is emerging as a critical competency for firms and a novel area for Information Technology (IT) investments. We examine the relationship between DDS readiness and competitive advantage by studying the mediation effect of product effectiveness and process efficiency. The research model is tested with data obtained from 302 companies, and the results confirm the existence of the mediation effects. Interestingly, we confirm that competitive advantage is more significantly impacted by IT investments affecting product effectiveness than those affecting process efficiency |
| Keywords: | Streams of big data,process efficiency,product effectiveness,competitive advantage |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03323663&r= |
| By: | Hinterlang, Natascha; Tänzer, Alina |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a reinforcement learning based approach to compute optimal interest rate reaction functions in terms of fulfilling inflation and output gap targets. The method is generally flexible enough to incorporate restrictions like the zero lower bound, nonlinear economy structures or asymmetric preferences. We use quarterly U.S. data from1987:Q3-2007:Q2 to estimate (nonlinear) model transition equations, train optimal policies and perform counterfactual analyses to evaluate them, assuming that the transition equations remain unchanged. All of our resulting policy rules outperform other common rules as well as the actual federal funds rate. Given a neural network representation of the economy, our optimized nonlinear policy rules reduce the central bank's loss by over43 %. A DSGE model comparison exercise further indicates robustness of the optimized rules. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Monetary Policy,Reinforcement Learning,Artificial Neural Network,Machine Learning,Reaction Function |
| JEL: | C45 C61 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:512021&r= |
| By: | Julian Thomas B. Alvarez (Asian Development Bank); Jahm Mae E. Guinto (Asian Development Bank and University of the Philip[pines); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Unlike in previous crises, the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought a crisis affecting all population groups, all economic sectors and all jurisdictions in the Philippines, as elsewhere. The impact of the COVID-19 vary across localities, however, partly due to differences in local government responses to the pandemic. Our objective is to examine the patterns in the types and timing of local responses among neighboring local government units (cities) for evidence of oneupmanship among their incumbent leaders (mayors). We assembled data for 25 selected cities and then grouped them into 28 neighborhood clusters. Using three indicators, we measure the immediacy, primacy and distinctiveness of the local responses within each cluster over the period March 2020-March 2021. Of the 28 clusters, we find in 19 (67.9 percent) evidence of oneupmanship consistent with the view that the type and timing of local responses are driven by mayors who wish to signal their talents and abilities. Further, mayors who face greater election competition pressures (low vote margin, many rivals) tend to implement responses ahead or uniquely of others. Thus, some leaders are able to turn the COVID-19 crisis into an opportunity to demonstrate their competence to their constituents, presumably to improve their popularity and re-election prospects. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; local responses; one-upmanship; yardstick competition; Philippines |
| JEL: | D72 H73 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202102&r= |
| By: | Narita, Yusuke; Yata, Kohei |
| Abstract: | Algorithms produce a growing portion of decisions and recommendations both in policy and business. Such algorithmic decisions are natural experiments (conditionally quasirandomly assigned instruments) since the algorithms make decisions based only on observable input variables. We use this observation to develop a treatment-effect estimator for a class of stochastic and deterministic decision-making algorithms. Our estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for well-defined causal effects. A key special case of our estimator is a multidimensional regression discontinuity design. We apply our estimator to evaluate the effect of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, where hundreds of billions of dollars worth of relief funding is allocated to hospitals via an algorithmic rule. Our estimates suggest that the relief funding has little effect on COVID- 19-related hospital activity levels. Naive OLS and IV estimates exhibit substantial selection bias. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2021-05&r= |
| By: | Alex Armand (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Nova School of Business and Economics); Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of St. Andrews); Kalyan Kumar Kameshwara (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Widespread misconceptions can be critical, especially in times of crisis. Through a field experiment, we study how to address such wrong or inaccurate beliefs using messages delivered to individual citizens using mobile phones. We focus on misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic in a hard-to-reach population – India’s slum residents. We randomly allocate participants to receive voice and video messages introduced by a local citizen, the messenger, and in which medical practitioners debunk misconceptions. To understand the role of targeting, we randomly vary the signaled religious identity of the messenger into either Muslim or Hindu, guaranteeing exogenous variation in religion concordance between messenger and recipient. Doctor messages are effective at increasing knowledge of, and compliance with, COVID-19 policy guidelines. Changes in misconceptions are observed only when there is religion concordance and mainly for religious-salient misconceptions. Correcting misconceptions with information requires targeting messages to specific populations and tailoring them to individual characteristics. |
| Date: | 2021–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/27&r= |
| By: | Karol Madoñ; Piotr Lewandowski |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 vaccines have proven highly effective in protecting against serious disease and death. Yet despite their introduction, Poland’s COVID-19 mortality rate remains high. This results from Poland’s lower vaccination rate compared to other EU countries – especially among people aged 70 or more who are at the highest risk from COVID-19.Vaccinating people aged 70+ is a much more effective method of lowering COVID-19 mortality rates than vaccinating people of working age. Increasing vaccination rates in the former age group would noticeably lower COVID-19 mortality in Poland. However, this would require an intensification of support efforts on a local level, including providing the elderly with comprehensive assistance in the vaccination process. |
| Keywords: | covid-19, pandemic, vaccination |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp012022&r= |
| By: | Simon Chang (The University of Western Australia); Deborah A. Cobb-Clark (The University of Sydney); Nicolás Salamanca (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | We identify the causal effect of teacher qualifications on parents’ investments in their children. Exploiting a unique, high-stakes educational setting in which teachers are randomly assigned to classes, we show that parents react to more qualified teachers by increasing their financial investments in their children. The key mechanism is an increase in parents’ belief that academic achievement is driven by student effort—for which financial investment is instrumental. However, higher teacher qualifications do not improve student test scores. This is likely due to a negative effect of teacher qualifications on students’ belief in the importance of effort for academic achievement. Our findings uncover various family-wide behavioral reactions to teacher qualifications and highlight the intricacies in educational production within households. |
| Keywords: | Teacher quality; Student achievement; Parental investment; Beliefs; School effort |
| JEL: | D10 I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2020n01&r= |
| By: | Philippe Andrade; Jordi Gali; Hervé Le Bihan; Julien Matheron |
| Abstract: | We address the question in this paper’s title using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest rate, r*, increases the probability of hitting the lower bound constraint, which entails significant welfare costs and warrants an adjustment of the monetary policy strategy. Under an unchanged monetary policy rule, an increase in the inflation target of eight-tenths the size of the drop in the real natural rate of interest is warranted. Absent an increase in the inflation target, and assuming the effective lower bound prevents the European Central Bank from implementing more aggressive negative interest rate policies, adjusting the monetary strategy requires considering alternative instruments or policy rules, such as a commitment to make up for recent, below-target inflation realizations. |
| Keywords: | inflation target; effective lower bound; monetary policy strategy; euro area |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:93688&r= |
| By: | Chan Mono Oum (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the direct impact of remittances on household debt performance and levels of indebtedness using survey data from 422 households in the northern part of Cambodia. We employ the Two-Step Heckman selection model to alleviate concerns regarding the endogeneity issues derived from self-selection bias, reverse causation, and omitted variable bias. The Tobit model is then employed to estimate household debt performance and the indebtedness impact of remittances. We first show that remittances are viewed as transitory incomes tending to decay as a migrant's length of stay outside the household increases. In the second stage of estimation, remittances positively affect household debt performance, particularly in low debt performance households. Remittances are also found to reduce household indebtedness in the recipient households. Because remittances contribute to reducing household indebtedness, which is a critical component in the financial system, policy responses should be targeted toward lowering the actual cost of sending remittances and thereby enabling migrant workers, and their left-behind household the ability to access formal and digitalized platforms in order to sending and receiving remittances. |
| Keywords: | remittances; household indebtedness; debt performance; Cambodia |
| JEL: | F24 R23 G51 D15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:22/02&r= |
| By: | Massimo Guidolin; Davide La Cara; Massimiliano Marcellino |
| Abstract: | With reference to S&P 500 daily returns, we report evidence of an in-sample predictive accuracy breakdown for realized variance by GARCH models in correspondence to the March 2020 Covid-19 outbreak. However, a variety of macroeconomic risk, political and social media sentiment uncertainty factors, and crucially a few variables capturing the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemics, successfully predict the direction and size of GARCH forecast errors between November 2019 and June 2020. Predictors related to diagnosed cases, their rate of growth, and the progression of the curve of deceased, infected people in the United States are featured prominently. We test a number of “augmented” GARCH models to include the most precisely estimated exogenous variables and find that they offer precise forecasts in samples that include the Covid-19 outbreak. In genuine out-of-sample tests, augmenting GARCH with Covid-19 related exogenous variables increases the percentage of days in which the direction of change in realized variance is correctly predicted. |
| Keywords: | Conditionally heteroskedastic models, Covid-19, volatility forecasting |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E47 G01 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21169&r= |
| By: | Toby Melissa C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Sara Jane Ahmed (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Golda P. Hilario (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | In its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, the Philippines committed to a GHG emissions reduction/avoidance of 75 percent for the period 2020 to 2030, referenced against a projected business-as-usual cumulative emission for the same period. However, the numbers do not add up, critical sectors such as forestry, which is central to the country’s climate change response, are excluded, and government is unconditionally committed to just 4 percent of that target. This begs the question of how the NDC squares with the country’s high level policy clarity and urgency on climate action, including the requirement to infuse all development plans and policies with it. A resetting of the NDC may therefore be warranted so that both national imperatives for climate risk resilience and climate smart development and global mitigation requirements are better served: an NDC that is based on first principles, with programs and measures anchored on adaptation/resilience and driven by their impact sustainable development rather than by GHG emissions reductions per se. This is not the standard ‘decarbonization’ path but a path that recognizes that highly vulnerable countries with relatively small carbon footprints per capita like the Philippines are likely to do more for global efforts to reduce the extent of climate change and cope with its impacts if they build robust community ownership for climate action and leverage opportunities based on their own comparative advantages; one comparative advantage of the Philippines is the biodiversity of its marine and coastal resources. This approach also recognizes that climate change impacts will be dire even if global warming is successfully limited to 1.5 degrees. Thus adaptation and resilience are imperatives for all countries and national contributions that are organized to support these efforts will be vital. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Climate policy; Development Policy; Emissions; Philippines; ASEAN |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 O53 O21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202105&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Margarita Debuque-Gonzales (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses infrastructure development in the Philippines under decentralization using illustrations mainly in the water sector. It opens up a study of the constraints and challenges in governance and regulation that local government units (LGUs) face in narrowing down the infrastructure gaps in their various jurisdictions. To enable LGUs’ project proposals to get into the priority public investment program of the national government, the former must have skilled human resources capable of conducting the technical, legal, and financial analysis required. In governance, they must be able to navigate the complexities of water-pricing regulation. At the start, LGUs will need a good deal of technical, legal, and financial assistance from the national government in raising their capacity to overcome the challenges. However, through learning-by doing and as LGUs are able to mobilize additional resources using their power to impose tax and non-tax measures, decentralized infrastructure development can take off, guided by an effective division of labor between the national government and LGUs. |
| Keywords: | decentralization; infrastructure development; governance and regulation; Philippines |
| JEL: | H7 O5 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202012&r= |
| By: | Ran Gu (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex); Cameron Peng (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Weilong Zhang (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We quantify how bargaining power is distributed when spouses make financial decisions together. We build a model in which each spouse has a risk preference and must bargain with each other to make asset decisions for the household. By structurally estimating the model with longitudinal data from Australian households, we show that the average household's asset allocation reflects the husband's risk preference 44% more than the wife's. This gap in bargaining power is partially explained by gender differences in income and employment status, but is also due to gender effects. We provide further evidence that links the distribution of bargaining power to views on gender norms in the cross-section. |
| Date: | 2021–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/11&r= |
| By: | Fabian Lensing (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | Sport-specific social media platforms such as Strava have become quite popular in recent times. Users can upload their exercise and competition activities, analyze them, share and compare them with fellow athletes, and even compete in virtual (or semi-virtual) challenges through such platforms. Anecdotal evidence suggests strong motivational and behavioral effects of using sport-specific social media. These effects, however, seem to differ across types of users. To identify different user groups and better understand the differences in their behavior and motivations, we conducted a survey among 557 recreational German triathletes. Apart from aspects characterizing platform usage and training activities, we collected socio-demographic information as well as data on personality traits and dispositions (i.e. the BIG 5). Based on these data, we identify four distinct clusters of sport-specific social media users: Casual Consumers, Lone Wolfs, Competitors, and Socializers. While the four types of users differ significantly with respect to motivation and behavior as well as usage frequency, they are not any different in terms of their personality traits. Findings are discussed and contextualized adopting a relational goods perspective. |
| Keywords: | Sport-specific Social Media, BIG 5 Personality Traits, Triathlon, Motivation, Behavior, Endurance Sports, Relational Goods |
| JEL: | Z20 L82 L83 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:87&r= |
| By: | Dongwei Zhao; Mehdi Jafari; Audun Botterud; Apurba Sakti |
| Abstract: | Arbitrage is one important revenue source for energy storage in electricity markets. However, a large amount of storage in the market will impact the energy price and reduce potential revenues. This can lead to strategic behaviors of profit-seeking storage investors. To study the investors' strategic storage investments, we formulate a non-cooperative game between competing investors. Each investor decides the storage investment over a long investment horizon, and operates the storage for arbitrage revenues in the daily electricity market. Different investors can deploy storage with different characteristics. Their decisions are coupled due to the market price that is determined by all the investors' decisions. We use market data from California ISO to characterize the storage impact on the market price, based on which we establish a centralized optimization problem to compute the market equilibrium. We show that an increasing number of investors will increase the market competition, which reduces investors' profits but increases the total invested storage capacity. Furthermore, we find that a slight increase in the storage efficiency (e.g., increased charge and discharge efficiency) can significantly improve an investor's profit share in the market. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02290&r= |
| By: | Puonti, Päivi; Kauppi, Eija; Kotamäki, Mauri; Ropponen, Olli |
| Abstract: | Abstract We analyze the impact of the Finnish tax-benefit system on the financial incentives to take up a job and to work more. The analysis is conducted with the Finnish microsimulation model SISU in 2015–2021. We analyze the presence of unemployment traps in the population and characterize the population subgroups associated with low work incentives. According to our results, the median participation tax rate in Finland is 69 percent, meaning that for half of working-age Finns the disposable income when in work increases by at most one third of the wage when employed. On average, the financial incentives to work of individuals receiving earnings-related unemployment benefits are lower than of those receiving flat-rate unemployment benefits, and the incentives of individuals receiving child home care allowance are better than the incentives of unemployed. Most of the individuals in unemployment trap receiving flat-rate unemployment benefits are beneficiaries of social assistance. In year 2021, 136,500 Finns found themselves in an unemployment trap defined as a situation in which disposable income increases at most 20 percent of gross income when employed. The amount of people in unemployment trap amounts to more than 300,000 when 25 percent is used as the relevant limit. Financial incentives to work have slightly improved since 2015. More than half a million Finns lose more than 50% of extra income due to tax increase and benefit withdrawal. The earnings disregard for basic social assistance improved the financial incentives to work of individuals in the lowest income group. |
| Keywords: | Participation tax rates, Incentives to work, Microsimulation, Tax-benefit system |
| JEL: | J22 H20 |
| Date: | 2022–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:124&r= |
| By: | Alfredo R. Paloyo (University of Wollongong (Australia)); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The world is facing its biggest public health crisis in a century. Managing this crisis requires an intentional contraction of the economy of unprecedented proportions. This deliberate and unavoidable drawdown in market activity will put businesses at risk of destruction, with hundreds of thousands of Filipinos likely to lose their source of livelihood. Many households will be plunged into poverty. Without assistance, those who are already poor will find themselves at the literal threshold of life and death as they battle both the virus that is ravaging their health and well-being, and the economic hardship that will almost certainly exact a social--if not physical--death. The government must act quickly to ensure that businesses can survive, jobs are secure, and the most vulnerable members of society are protected. The message must be decisive and formidable: "We will not let businesses fail, and we will not let people go hungry--whatever it takes." Our plan begins with recognizing that the economic contraction is immediate and sharp--but temporary. There will be a real output loss in the economy, but this is necessary to contain the spread of the virus. The objective is to alleviate the economic, social, and psychological hardships caused by the reduction in economic activity and to minimize any permanent damage to the economy. Doing this will involve providing emergency financial and nonfinancial aid to the most vulnerable households, guaranteeing continuity for businesses and maintaining the employment of their workers, and creating an economic environment which will allow the economy to recover quickly and continue on a growth trajectory when the public health crisis eventually wanes. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Social Protection; Philippine Recovery |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202002&r= |
| By: | SA Quimbo (House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City); CT Latinazo (House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City); JW Peabody (QURE Healthcare, UCSF and UCLA) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 risk assessment is multi-faceted. The highly infectious nature of the virus in a naïve population, the high case fatality rate and health system over-burdening each need to be considered in developing a strategy to control the spread of the virus and mitigate its health and economic consequences. This note provides a framework for classifying LGUs by degree of risk and identifies policy options for each risk scenario. It urges the Department of Health (DOH) to: (i) re-assess risk levels of local government units (LGUs), (ii) undertake a 100 percent identification of place of residence of all COVID-19 confirmed cases and 100 percent reporting of number of isolation beds and ventilators by all hospitals, and (iii) develop and immediately implement a COVID-specific disease surveillance protocol, including mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantine. Careful and diligent implementation of these protocols will allow a gradual yet cautious and informed re-opening of the economy. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines; risk-assessment |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202007&r= |
| By: | Manuel A. Pérez Álvarez (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | In August 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made a new allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) equivalent to $650 billion. This significant amount has tripled the total existing stock of SDRs. For Spain it involves an increase of 16% in foreign reserves, and an increase in receivables from the IMF, which amount to 22% of the reserves on the balance sheet of the Banco de España, as compared with 10% at present. The purpose of this expansion of SDRs is to support a group of countries that are having most difficulty fighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These countries have a greater need for foreign exchange to obtain basic supplies just when they are shut out of international capital markets. The new allocation is likely to boost SDR transactions given its large amount, the urgent need for funds in some countries and the experience of the 2009 allocation. This paper explains the characteristics of the use of SDRs as an effective source of liquidity, concluding that the way in which the issuance of this instrument is made effective is by means of transactions, allocation being the formal prerequisite for their existence. Accordingly, the key to their effectiveness will be the transactions actually carried out to obtain liquidity in international business. A liquidity ratio is proposed for monitoring their use. With regard to the magnitude of the allocation and, given that it is based on the quotas of each IMF member country, the developed countries have received the bulk of the allocation, as opposed to those countries having greater difficulty accessing the markets. Accordingly, measures will have to be taken to promote the passing on of SDRs so that their purpose can be achieved and they effectively supplement the reserves available within the framework of international trade. |
| Keywords: | SDRs, allocation, IMF, COVID-19, pandemic, liquidity, reserve assets, foreign exchange, voluntary trading arrangements, international cooperation |
| JEL: | F33 F42 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2201&r= |
| By: | Oliver Pfäuti; Fabian Seyrich |
| Abstract: | We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. Simultaneously, the model resolves the forward guidance puzzle, remains stable at the effective lower bound and determinate under an interest-rate peg. The model is analytically tractable and nests a wide range of existing models as special cases, none of which can produce all the listed features within one model. We extend our model and derive an equivalence result of models featuring bounded rationality and models featuring incomplete information and learning. This extended model generates hump-shaped responses of aggregate variables and a novel behavioral amplification channel that is absent in existing HANK models. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral Macroeconomics, Heterogeneous Households, Monetary Policy, Forward Guidance, Fiscal Policy, New Keynesian Puzzles, Determinacy, Lower Bound |
| JEL: | E21 E52 E62 E71 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2022_334&r= |
| By: | Chen, Yunxiao; Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Li, Xiaoou |
| Abstract: | In standardized educational testing, test items are reused in multiple test administrations. To ensure the validity of test scores, the psychometric properties of items should remain unchanged over time. In this paper, we consider the sequential monitoring of test items, in particular, the detection of abrupt changes to their psychometric properties, where a change can be caused by, for example, leakage of the item or change of the corresponding curriculum. We propose a statistical framework for the detection of abrupt changes in individual items. This framework consists of (1) a multi-stream Bayesian change point model describing sequential changes in items, (2) a compound risk function quantifying the risk in sequential decisions, and (3) sequential decision rules that control the compound risk. Throughout the sequential decision process, the proposed decision rule balances the trade-o between two sources of errors, the false detection of pre-change items and the non-detection of post-change items. An item-specic monitoring statistic is proposed based on an item response theory model that eliminates the confounding from the examinee population which changes over 1 time. Sequential decision rules and their theoretical properties are developed under two settings: the oracle setting where the Bayesian change point model is completely known and a more realistic setting where some parameters of the model are unknown. Simulation studies are conducted under settings that mimic real operational tests. |
| Keywords: | standardized testing; test security; item preknowledge; sequential change point detection; multi-stream data; compound decision; Sage deal |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112498&r= |
| By: | Diomidis Spinellis; Athanasia Pouloudi; George Xirogiannis; Evmorfia Makantasi |
| Abstract: | Over the last two years Greece has employed agile ICT solutions to reduce the administrative burden in front-office G2B transactions. This research supplements historic analysis with fuzzy cognitive maps to offer a multi-dimensional coupling of eGovernment initiatives with digital maturity assessment capabilities and a strategy alignment evaluation framework. This “intelligent x-ray” confirms that front-office technology is important in reducing administrative burden. The digital bypass of bureaucracy seems to be an effective start for Greece. However, this strategy can only serve as a short-term tactical choice. The “intelligent x-ray” provides executivelevel quantification and traceable reasoning to show that excessive emphasis on front- office technology will soon fail to support a strong eGovernment maturity. Organizational efficiency, interoperability, regulatory simplifications, and change management must also act as important objectives. Only then will ICT deliver its full potential, and the eGovernment maturity will improve significantly even with moderate ICT investments. |
| Keywords: | fuzzy cognitive maps, eGovernment strategy, digital maturity, evidencebased policy |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:168&r= |
| By: | Katherine de Bienassis; Nicolaas S. Klazinga |
| Abstract: | Improving patient safety culture (PSC) is a significant priority for OECD countries as they work to improve healthcare quality and safety—a goal that has increased in importance as countries have faced new safety concerns connected to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings from benchmarking work in PSC show that there is significant room for improvement. Across included survey findings from OECD countries, less than half (46% ) of surveyed health workers believe that important patient care information is transferred across hospital units and during shift changes. Just two-in-five surveyed health workers in OECD countries believe the staffing levels at their workplace are appropriate for ensuring patient safety (40%) or that mistakes and event reports would not held against them (41%). International benchmarking is a feasible and useful addition to exiting measurement initiatives on safety culture and may help accelerate necessary improvements in patient safety outcomes. |
| JEL: | I10 I11 I18 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaad:134-en&r= |
| By: | Magalasi, Chimwemwe |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the short-term distributional effects of COVID-19 on household incomes in Malawi. Growth is expected to fall due to the pandemic. The Malawi annual gross domestic product growth rate for 2020 has been revised downwards from 5.5% to 1.9%. According to the government of Malawi, unemployment in Malawi is expected to increase in 2020 compared to 2019 as companies begin to lay-off employees due to both demand and supply shocks. Our study investigates the impact of changes in employment due to the COVID-19 crisis on inequality and poverty using the recently developed tax-benefit microsimulation model for Malawi, MAMOD. In assessing the impact of the job losses, three employment shock scenarios are considered. Our study leverages on the novel High Frequency Phone Survey for COVID-19 that was implemented from June 2020 and the recently released Integrated Household Survey which was collected just before the COVID-19 crisis. We find that the poverty measured by headcount and poverty gap increases because of the COVID-19 outbreak. The pandemic has also worsened inequality as the Gini Coefficient rose. We further find that the corrective measures implemented the Emergency Cash Transfer, were able to subdue the impact of the crisis especially at the bottom of the income distribution. |
| Date: | 2021–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em7-21&r= |
| By: | Julia M. Puaschunder (The New School, Department of Economics, School of Public Engagement, New York, NY 10003, USA) |
| Abstract: | The climate change crisis has gained unprecedented urgency in the most recent decade. Overall, climate change has already led to and will continuously lead to irreversible tipping points and lock-ins that will degrade the common welfare. When taking a closer look at the macroeconomic growth prospects as measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), climate change gains and losses will be distributed fairly unequally throughout the world. A climate change winners and losers index generated the economic prospects under climate change around the world. The index attributed economic gain and loss prospects based on the medium temperature per country in relation to the optimum temperature for economic productivity and the GDP composition per country in order to determine how far countries are deviating from their optimum productivity levels on a time scale. As economic gains and losses from a warming earth are distributed unequally around the globe, ethical imperatives lead to the pledge to redistribute gains to losing territories in the quest for climate justice. Climate justice comprises fairness between countries but also over generations in a unique and unprecedented tax-and-bonds climate change gains and losses distribution strategy. Climate change winning countries are advised to use taxation to raise revenues to offset the losses incurred by climate change. Climate change losers could raise revenues by issuing bonds that have to be paid back by taxing future generations. Regarding taxation, within the winning countries, foremost the gaining GDP sectors should be taxed. Climate justice within a country should also pay tribute to the fact that low- and high-income households share the same burden proportional to their dispensable income, for instance enabled through a progressive carbon taxation. Those who caused climate change could be regulated to bear a higher cost through carbon tax in combination with retroactive billing through inheritance tax to map benefits from past wealth accumulation that potentially contributed to global warming. A novel policy recommendation for enacting climate justice entails diversified interest rate regimes for climate bonds repayment based on the country’s initial position on the climate change gains and losses index spectrum. Diversified repayment of bonds is a new method aimed at ensuring to share the burden but also the benefits of climate change within society in an economically efficient, legally equitable and practically feasible way. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Economics of the Environment, Environmental Justice, Environmental Governance, Green New Deal, Healthcare, Monetary Policy, Multiplier, Social Justice, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0068&r= |