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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2022‒02‒14
657 papers chosen by |
| By: | Rapone, Tancredi |
| Abstract: | This paper uses optical character recognition (OCR) to analyze the production of books in the US over 1790 to 1870 using copyright title pages taken from the online archives of the Library of Congress. We construct national time series of book production over this period which show an uptake in per-capita terms in 1830, around the starting point of the US’ industrial revolution. We break down the production of books into topics using keywords for 8 topics: science, religion, novel, invention, diffusion, business, philosophy and textbook. On this basis we show that the composition of book production by topics is stable over time, except for textbooks and novels which show a persistent increase over the whole period both in relative and absolute terms. This pushes back the beginning of the growth in US human capital before the first reliable data on schooling and literacy starting in 1870. We thus offer mild support to an interpretation of US growth over the 19th century based on the expansion of knowledge and capabilities, while conceding that the link between the content of books and industrialization is tenuous. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113448&r= |
| By: | Greif, Gavin |
| Abstract: | The role of merchants in shaping the German industrialization is often acknowledged, yet scarcely researched. A small number of case-studies of merchant families and individual towns have shown the significance of merchants as capital providers, industrial entrepreneurs, and political actors, yet no supra-local study into the wider significance of this social group for the German economy exists. This dissertation introduces a new source, a business directory from 1798, to construct micro-data on 6099 individual merchant and manufacturing enterprises across 56 towns in Germany. The resulting dataset is the earliest supraregional evidence on the spatial variation of urban merchant communities in Germany to date. Furthermore, this paper provides a detailed overview of the types of eighteenth-century merchants and analyses under what exact circumstances merchants became industrial entrepreneurs. Using multivariate OLS regressions, it finds a strong association between a greater share of proto-firms in a town in 1798 and its growth rates across the nineteenth century. The findings point to a hitherto overlooked link between the qualitative structure of late eighteenth century merchant activity, the elasticity of supply of early industrial entrepreneurship, and the spatial variation of urban growth experiences in nineteenth century Germany |
| JEL: | N14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113346&r= |
| By: | Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | This chapter written for the Oxford Handbook of Historical Political Economy argues that you cannot understand the history of globalization without taking political factors into account; and that you cannot understand the history of comparative economic development without taking globalization into account. Globalization compels us to take geography seriously and to think more like historians. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20220075&r= |
| By: | Hutkova, Karolina |
| Abstract: | Today India is among the major sugar producers and sugar-making has a long tradition, yet the adoption of modern sugar technologies was delayed. Which factors underpinned this? This article examines the attempts of European sugar entrepreneurs to adopt new sugar technologies in 1830s–1840s Bihar. Its findings correspond with recent literature on Indian economic development which emphasises the role of declining agricultural productivity in economic stagnation in the colonial period. This article supports the conclusions that low agricultural productivity was the outcome of inadequate investment on the part of the British Empire. It also highlights that in the case of commercial crops–such as sugar–investment into new technologies with potential for increasing productivity was hindered by British trade policies. As British imperial policies gave preference to the welfare of the British consumer, lacked consideration for colonial manufacturing, they did not create a beneficial environment for long-run investment projects. |
| Keywords: | Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110453&r= |
| By: | Fernando Collantes; Vicente Pinilla |
| Abstract: | In recent years, a perception has spread in Spain that our process of rural depopulation is so extreme and overwhelming that it is unique, anomalous we could say, in Europe. In this paper we argue that this perception is not correct. Even though there are very striking contrasts between the population densities of different parts of the country, this does not mean that Spain has undergone a particularly anomalous or exceptional process of rural depopulation during the modern era. After revising the empirical evidence about rural population dynamics in Europe and in a set of large European countries, we identify those traits that were characteristic of the Spanish case and explain them in their historical context. |
| Keywords: | rural depopulation, historical demography, rural history |
| JEL: | J11 N34 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:2201&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal) |
| Abstract: | The experience of the war economy during the First World War in the United States reinforced the influence of arguments in favour of managed competition. By extending the principles of scientific management to the economy as a whole, this approach aimed to coordinate firms through the exchange of information, which was seen as a necessity both in terms of economic efficiency and response to cyclical fluctuations. Such a stance greatly reduced the application of competition rules. Nevertheless, the proposals that emerged during the 1929 crisis – leading to the reproduction of the war-economy experience in peacetime at the risk of steering the US economy towards the formation of cartels under the supervision of the federal government – were rejected by President Herbert Hoover, despite his defence of a model for regulated competition in the 1920s. The paradox was President Franklin D. Roosevelt's resumption of these projects within the framework of the First New Deal. This paper deals with the arguments that were put forward to evade competition rules and explains why the Democratic administration ultimately decided to return to a resolute enforcement of the Sherman Act. |
| Keywords: | Information Exchange,Scientific Management,Competition Rules,Cartelization,War Economy |
| Date: | 2020–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03052417&r= |
| By: | Andrea Incerpi; Barbara Pistoresi; Francesco Salsano |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence on the relationship between military spending and the expansion of other governmental budgetary heading and tax revenues from the Unification of Italy (1861) up to the end of World War II. Mainly in the years preceding 1922, investments in education and social transfers to families moves together with the defense spending. That is, positive changes in defense implies both an increase in education and in transfers. Moreover, transfers also have a compensatory role during recessive phases. Positive changes in defence do not crowd out the investment in capital spending, while disinvestments in defense are associated with an increase in the investment in capital. The pro-cyclical behavior of the tax revenues is compatible with a debt financing dynamic of many government expenditures. Although our analytic narrative is not universally valid, it can support the persistent centrality of external war in the discontinuous development and expansion of the Italian central State, with some exceptions explained by the historical experience. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:153&r= |
| By: | Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Stavros Poupakis (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex); Peter Ekamper (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Govert E. Bijwaard (Institute for Fiscal Studies); L.H. Lumey (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates impacts, mechanisms and selection e?ects of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944 - May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using di?erence-in-di?erences and triple di?erences research designs, we show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being overweight at age 18, and that this e?ect is partly accounted for by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Moreover, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and ?nd evidence of both selection and scarring e?ects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions. |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/36&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Jan Carlo Punongbayan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Part of a proposed anthology, this article provides a concise review of the economic performance during the period of the Marcos dictatorship (1972-1985) from a comparative historical perspective. We examine the external events and internal policy responses that made possible the high growth in the early years of martial law and show that these are integral to explaining the decline and ultimate collapse of the economy in 1984-1985. The macroeconomic, trade, and debt policies pursued by the Marcos regime—particularly its failure to shift the country onto a sustainable growth path—are explained in the context of the regime’s larger political-economic programme of holding on to power and seeking rents. |
| Keywords: | martial law, Philippine economy, economic history, political economy |
| JEL: | N15 O53 P48 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202107&r= |
| By: | Jäger, Simon; Pischke, Jörn Steffen |
| Abstract: | This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics honoured David Card of the University of California, Berkeley “for his empirical contributions to labour economics”, and Joshua Angrist of MIT and Guido Imbens of Stanford University “for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”. We explain how the laureates revolutionised the analysis of causal relationships in empirical economics through the methodology of natural experiments. Three examples from the German labour market on the effects of minimum wages, code-termination and unemployment insurance illustrate how natural experiments yield new insights, which can form the foundation for evidence-based policy advice. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113362&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kirat (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article discusses the institutionalization of the field of Law and Economics in the United States from the post-war period to the Reagan administration. It emphasizes the role of pro-market corporate foundations in the development of Law and Economics. It analyses individual and collective trajectories, including research projects, training programs led with judges, as well as leading academics contributions and judicial and administrative careers. It ultimately focuses on the impact of this institutionalization on judging methods |
| Keywords: | Law and Economics,Foundations,Antitrust,Conservatism |
| Date: | 2021–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03124774&r= |
| By: | Milen Jissov (BNU-HKBU United International College, China) |
| Abstract: | If every age has its signature works, The Captive Mind by Czesław Miłosz is such a work for the Cold War. Published in 1953 and valorized in the West as an incisive critique of the Soviet Bloc, it analyzes the inner world of Eastern Europeans caught in the grip of Stalinist tyranny. This subjectivity is what Miłosz calls “the captive mind.†But with the Cold War long over, it is time to rethink and reassess his classic. This is the purpose of this paper. Casting a critical look at it, the paper argues that The Captive Mind is afflicted and debilitated by an implicit, but all too serious, aporia. As a part of his analysis of Eastern Europe’s incarcerated mind, Miłosz articulates a conception of human nature. In a profound irony, however, that conception aligns with—harmonizes with—his portrayal of the evil Stalinist tyranny enthralling Eastern Europe. Unwittingly, Miłosz in effect naturalizes that tyranny. He suggests that, rather than being evil, it is all too human—corresponding to elemental propensities of human nature. This paper problematizes this dramatic contradiction. Ultimately, it reflects on the implications of this momentous paradox for understanding the character and history of political oppression. |
| Keywords: | Czeslaw Milosz, Tyranny, Totalitarianism, Subjectivity, Eastern Europe, The Cold War |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0088&r= |
| By: | Roy, Tirthankar |
| Abstract: | The proposition that Useful and Reliable Knowledge (URK) produced divergent patterns of long-term economic growth implies that such knowledge had weak agency in countries that fell behind. This article rejects such a theory on the evidence of colonial India. Indo-European contacts activated transfer, transplantation, and adaptation in URK; however, the impact was uneven within India. Despite boosting productivity in manufacturing and consumption, large areas were left untouched. These contrasts highlight the differentiated impact of URK on production conditions in India and question its transferability and mode of knowledge exchange under colonialism. |
| JEL: | N15 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113442&r= |
| By: | Samah Nassar (October University for Modern Sciences and Arts, Faculty of Arts and Design, Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | Digital technologies have revolutionized the normal practices in various industries. The short films industry has equally experienced innumerable changes since its first inception in 1910. The industry has seen changes ranging from noble changes from creative processes, ideas or script writing, and featuring and characterization. This paper sets out to assess the historical development of short films from the early 19th Century until the present age, and the future prospects in the film industry. With new ways of sharing the short films varying from social media platforms, direct media, theatres and live performances, filmmakers have multiple opportunities to craft and showcase their talents in short films. Besides, short films strongly influence society as they impact the audience’s future interactions and thinking patterns, especially using the themes or content relayed in the short films. Therefore, short films play a great role in shaping society’s morals and people’s behaviors. Recently, short films were explored to showcase the United Nations’ universal goals to promote social cohesion among the global population. The paper concludes by analyzing the challenges and future potential of the short films industry, especially educating and entertaining the masses. |
| Keywords: | short films, global awareness, UN SDG’s, future, humanity |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0077&r= |
| By: | Cristian Dan (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In the early stages of the evolution of the human species, feelings and sensations played a particularly important role in adapting and sustaining existential activities and how to integrate man in relation to the surrounding nature. Of all the feelings, the predominant psychological characteristic was the feeling of anger, coming from the need to preserve, to defend life and things acquired, in front of the attackers who could be both fierce animals and other fellows of the same species. For millions of years, these mechanisms have contributed to the intrinsic and external development of society, being present in human interactions within tribes, cities, villages and cities. Being a sentimental trait developed over such a long period of time, the feeling of anger, inscribed in human DNA, is nowadays a dangerous factor, generating antisocial behaviors and actions that are subject to Criminal Law, which we often learn to control it. The article aims to analyze this mechanism, from a historical, psychological and cultural point of view in relation to Criminal Law and the facts determined by this feeling, highlighting, on the one hand, the crimes that can be committed under its rule, and on the other part, the methods of preventing and combating them identified in today’s society. |
| Keywords: | anger, morality, genetics, criminal law, crime, psychology, embezzlement, theft, violence, history, legal system, conduct, prevention, combat, rape |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0090&r= |
| By: | Wang, J.; Alessi, R.; Angelini, V. |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of in utero exposure to adverse events on late life diabetes, cardiovascular disease risks and cognition deficiency. We merge data on the regional violence during the Cultural Revolution and the excessive death rates during the Chinese Great Famine with data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)survey. Results show that female babies who were exposed in utero to the famine have higher diabetes risks, while male babies who were exposed to the Cultural Revolution are shown to have lower cognitive abilities. |
| Keywords: | early life conditions; chinese great famine; cultural revolution; diabetes; cardiovascular disease; cognition; |
| JEL: | I10 J11 J14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:22/02&r= |
| By: | Eric Edwards; Martin Fiszbein; Gary Libecap |
| Abstract: | The contributions of Harold Demsetz offer key insights on how property rights and transaction costs shape economic organization. This guides our comparison of agricultural organization in two comparable regions, the Argentine Pampas and the US Midwest. In the US, land was distributed in small parcels and actively traded. In the Pampas, land was distributed in large plots and trade was limited because land was a social and political asset as well as commercial. We analyze why this led to persistently larger farms, specialization in ranching, and peculiar tenancy contracts in Argentina, relative to the US. Our empirical analysis, based on county-level data for both regions, shows that geo-climatic factors cannot explain the observed differences in agricultural organization. We discuss implications for long-term economic development in Argentina. |
| JEL: | L23 N51 N56 Q15 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:100&r= |
| By: | Giancarlo Bertocco; Andrea Kalajzić |
| Abstract: | To hypothesize the existence of a relationship between money and savings means questioning a fundamental pillar of the mainstream economic theory: the concept of neutrality of money. According to the traditional theory economic phenomena such as savings can be defined independently from money. The objective of this work is to show that savings cannot be defined independently from money and that savings must be considered as a monetary phenomenon. The paper consists of two parts. Starting from Adam Smith’s analysis and continuing up to the approaches developed by contemporary economists, in the first part we summarize the most significant aspects and the limitations of the mainstream theory. In the second part we specify the reasons of the non-neutrality of money and of the monetary nature of savings. |
| Keywords: | Savings, money, development, Keynes, Schumpeter |
| JEL: | B12 B13 B52 E12 E44 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2206&r= |
| By: | Patsali, Sofia (Université Côte d'Azur, GREDEG, and Université de Strasbourg, BETA, CNRS France); Pezzoni, Michele (Université Côte d'Azur, GREDEG, CNRS, Observatoire des Sciences et Techniques, HCERES, OFCE, Sciences Po, and ICRIOS, Bocconi University, Italy); Visentin, Fabiana (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of research independence during the PhD period on students' career outcomes. We use a unique and detailed dataset on the French population of STEM PhD students who graduated between 1995 and 2013. To measure research independence, we compare the PhD thesis content with the supervisor's research. We employ advanced neural network text analysis techniques evaluating the similarity between the student's thesis abstract and supervisor's publications during the PhD period. After exploring which characteristics of the PhD training experience and supervisor explain the level of research similarity, we estimate how similarity associates with the likelihood of pursuing a research career. We find that the student thesis's similarity with her supervisor's research work is negatively associated with starting a career in academia and patenting probability. Increasing the PhD-supervisor similarity score by one standard deviation is associated with a 2.1 percentage point decrease in the probability of obtaining an academic position and a 0.57 percentage point decrease in the probability of patenting. However, conditional on starting an academic career, PhD-supervisor similarity is associated with a higher student's productivity after graduation as measured by citations received, network size, and probability of moving to a foreign or US-based affiliation. |
| Keywords: | Research independence, Early career researchers, Scientific career outcomes, Neural network text analysis |
| JEL: | D22 O30 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021036&r= |
| By: | Kolev, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Oskar Anderson (1887-1960) gehörte zu den Gründungsvätern der Ökonometrie. Dieser Aufsatz fokussiert auf die Relevanz seines statistischen und ökonometrischen Werkes für die Konjunkturforschung in der Zwischenkriegszeit. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Periode zwischen 1923 und 1942, die er als russischer Emigrant in Bulgarien verbrachte und als seine wissenschaftlich produktivste Periode gilt. In dieser Zeit veröffentlichte Anderson bahnbrechende Beiträge, in denen er ökonomische Theorie, empirische Methoden und angewandte Arbeit an Datensätzen verknüpfte. Er vernetzte sich international in den Kontexten der jungen theoretischen und politikberatenden Ökonometrie, wobei die Verbindung zum Wiener Institut für Konjunkturforschung und dessen Direktor Oskar Morgenstern besonders intensiv war. 1935 gründete Anderson mit Kofinanzierung der Rockefeller Foundation das "Statistische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Staatlichen Universität Sofia" (SWIFO) und blieb Direktor des SWIFO bis 1942. Anschließend wurde er Leiter der Abteilung für Ostforschung am Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft. Ab 1947 wirkte er als Ordinarius in München und kämpfte für die Verankerung der quantitativen Methoden in der Ökonomen-Ausbildung an westdeutschen Fakultäten. In den späten 1940er Jahren war Anderson an der Gründung des ifo Instituts beteiligt. Sein Sohn Oskar Anderson jun. (1922-2006) trug ab den frühen 1950er Jahren maßgeblich zur Konstruktion und Verfeinerung des ifo Konjunkturtests bei. |
| JEL: | B22 B23 B53 C32 N14 O14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:198&r= |
| By: | Foszto Arpad (Aurel Vlaicu University of Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | There is today an optimistic approach, on a widespread scale, to every issue of life, which in appearance seems good and commendable. This is a result of a general secular mindset that reinterprets love and empathy unsuccessfully, and that is the case even when dealing with the religious experience. But the Apostle Paul challenged the first century’s Greek and Roman polytheism in a way that should challenge our twenty-first century’s approach to religious experience. For him, the demons were real, and they were powerful and fearful. Augustine of Hippo, in De civitate Dei contra paganos, was thinking alike, and this was the general view during the most part of history. This paper aimed to reclaim into the taxonomy of the religious experience the place rightly owned by the actors of the dark side. |
| Keywords: | preternatural, demons, taxonomy, religious experience |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0104&r= |
| By: | Clémence Thebaut (NET - Neuroépidémiologie Tropicale - CHU Limoges - Institut d'Epidémiologie Neurologique et de Neurologie Tropicale - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - GEIST - Institut Génomique, Environnement, Immunité, Santé, Thérapeutique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, UNILIM - Université de Limoges) |
| Abstract: | This article is part of a research project which seeks to draw on the methods and tools put forward by Michel Foucault to shed light on all areas of discussion concerning the economic assessment of health. It examines the epistemological basis of preference elicitation methods, based on welfare economics, which are used today to assess the benefits of health care. To do so, this research draws on Foucault's episteme set out in The Order of things. More specifically the article considers that the rejection of interpersonal comparisons that foreshadowed the marginalist revolution and the transition to ordinal measures of utility during the 19th century can be explained by the shift from the classical episteme to a modern episteme. The question of the cardinal or ordinal measurement of utility is central to the economic assessment of health care. Indeed, the methods for valuing health benefits, especially using QALYs, are similar to cardinal measures, in contrast to the paradigm of the welfare economics of which they are meant to be part. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un projet de recherche visant à mobiliser les méthodes et outils proposés par Michel Foucault pour apporter un éclairage sur un ensemble de discussions que soulève l'évaluation économique en santé. Nous nous intéressons ici à l'ancrage épistémologique des méthodes de révélation des préférences individuelles issues de l'économie du bien-être, qui sont aujourd'hui utilisées pour valoriser les bénéfices en santé, en nous appuyant sur la typologie des épistémès de Foucault dans les Mots et les choses. Plus précisément, nous envisageons que le rejet des comparaisons interpersonnelles, que préfigure la révolution marginaliste et la transition vers une mesure ordinale des utilités, s'explique par le passage d'une épistémè classique à une épistémè moderne. La question du caractère cardinal ou ordinal de la mesure de l'utilité reste centrale pour l'évaluation économique en santé. En effet, les méthodes d'évaluation des bénéfices en santé, notamment au moyen des QALY, se rapprochent d'une mesure cardinale, contrairement au paradigme de la nouvelle économie du bien-être dans lequel elle est censée s'inscrire. |
| Keywords: | Economie du bien-être,Evaluation économique en santé,Epistémologie,Foucault |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03499454&r= |
| By: | Ioan-Gheorghe Rotaru (Timotheus Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The natural purpose of an educational institution is to awaken, to wise, cultivating the intellectual skills in the heart of the learner/student, along with his need to learn all his life. School is also important for us as people because it helps the progress of society, increases trust in people and teaches us to make and maintain friendships, and helps us learn how to work together as a team, which is the main foundation of any successful society. Without school, knowledge could not spread as quickly, and our access to new ideas and people could be hampered. A schoolless world would create difficulties and would prevent the dispersion of economic growth, tolerance and appreciation of our fellow human beings. The purpose of the school is to turn mirrors into windows. Nothing can develop our intellect more than a book, yet in the 21st century, it is read less and less because technology has dethroned the book. |
| Keywords: | school, education, culture, skills, book, technology |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0094&r= |
| By: | Bowers, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | The migrant families who build India’s cities do so to meet practical and ritual aspirations rooted in the village, undergoing spatial and temporal fragmentation to maintain rural longevity and the possibilities of ritual time. This article contributes an alternative position to linear-framed presumptions of migration and urbanity, illustrating instead how everyday experiences of dislocation can be productive through labor, timespace, and imagination; bridging the gulf between residence on urban construction sites in Bengaluru, southern India, and desired village homes. However, lived experiences of dislocation remain stratified by gender and class, leading to highly conjugated experiences of precarity, mobility, and possibility. Despite the urban ambivalence felt by women and girls as a result, a shared experience of dislocation enables entire families to undertake the grueling yet regenerative work of circular migration, ensuring the continuation and renewal of village life and ritual time through its incompleteness. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113446&r= |
| By: | Irene Mosca (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Anne Nolan (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin. Department of Economics Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | A large body of research in economics and other disciplines considers the role of early-life circumstances in shaping later-life outcomes. The foetal origins hypothesis establishes that certain health conditions in later adulthood can be linked to in-utero development. In this paper, we contribute to the evidence on the foetal origins hypothesis by examining the later-life impact of a rubella outbreak that occurred in Ireland in 1956. Rubella is a contagious viral disease that displays mild symptoms and is generally inconsequential in childhood or adulthood. However, a rubella infection in early pregnancy poses a significant risk of damage to the foetus. Matching the outcomes of individuals born in 1955 to 1958 who are in the 2016 Irish Census to the county-level rubella incidence rate that was prevailing when respondents were in utero, we find that a 1% increase in the rubella incidence rate when in utero is associated with a 0.03% to 0.17% increase in the probability of having lower levels of educational attainment, being in poor health and having a disability in later life |
| Keywords: | in-utero; rubella; Ireland; later-life health |
| JEL: | I10 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n314-22.pdf&r= |
| By: | Nitin Kumar Bharti (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sutanuka Roy |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of judges' exposure to communal violence during early childhood on pretrial detention rates by exploiting novel administrative data on judgments and detailed resumes of judicial officers born during 1955-1991. Our baseline result is that judges exposed to communal violence between ages 0 and 6 years are 16% more prone to deny bail than the average judge, with the impact being stronger for the experience of riots between ages 3 and 6 years. The observed judicial stringency is driven by childhood exposure to riots with a higher duration of state-imposed lockdowns and low riot casualties. |
| Keywords: | Early-childhood,Pretrial Detention,Judicial Bias,Communal Violence Early-childhood,Communal Violence |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03537653&r= |
| By: | Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico; Gian Luca Tedeschi |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acqui- sition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citi- zenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the ac- quisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors - conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs|that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship, Trust, Slave Trade, Migration, Ethnicity, Conflict, Kinship, Witchcraft. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wchild:100&r= |
| By: | Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of St. Andrews) |
| Abstract: | It is widely accepted that investing in public infrastructure promotes economic development. However, there is little awareness of the prevalence of unfinished infrastructure projects and their consequences. In this paper, I study the effect of unfinished sewerage infrastructure on early-life mortality in Peru. I compile several sources of administrative panel data for 1,400 districts spanning 2005–2015, and I rely on the budgetary plans and timing of expenditure for 6,000 projects to measure unfinished projects and those completed in a given district. I document that mid-construction abandonment and delays are highly prevalent. I exploit geographical features and partisan alignment to instrument for project implementation. Surprisingly, I find that unfinished sewerage projects increased early-life mortality, driven by lack of water availability, water-borne diseases and accidents. I also show that while unfinished projects pose hazards to the population, completed sewerage projects decrease early-life mortality, in line with public health studies in advanced economies during the previous centuries. |
| Date: | 2020–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/32&r= |
| By: | Graziella Bertocchi; Angelo Dimico; Gian Luca Tedeschi |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acqui- sition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citi- zenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. Wefind that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the ac- quisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is cofirmed. Alternative factors- conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs|that, through trust, may ffect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship, Trust, Slave Trade, Migration, Ethnicity, Conflict, Kinship, Witchcraft. |
| JEL: | J15 K37 N57 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:152&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); John Van Reenen (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We examine the economic analysis of the relationship between innovation and product market competition. First, we give a brief tour of the intellectual history of the area. Second, we examine how the Aghion-Howitt framework has influenced the development of the literature theoretically and (especially) empirically, with an emphasis on the “inverted U”: the idea that innovation rises and then eventually falls as the intensity of competition increases. Thirdly, we look at recent applications and development of the framework in the areas of competition policy, international trade and structural Industrial Organization. |
| Date: | 2021–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/43&r= |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel A. Kamhöfer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Martin Karlsson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Therese Nilsson (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal e?ect of school absence on long-run socio-economic outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We ?nd that absence signi?cantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, ?nal educational attainment and labor income throughout the life-cycle. The ?ndings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labor market performance. |
| Date: | 2021–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/06&r= |
| By: | Christos Mavridis (Middlesex University London); Orestis Troumpounis (University of Padova and Lancaster University); Maurizio Zanardi (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | What is the role of the militarization of law enforcement agencies in the U.S. in the 2020 wave of protests? This paper shows that aggregate transfers of military equipment up to 2019 increased both the incidence and number of protests in a given county in 2020. However, militarization is not a significant determinant neither of violent protests nor of COVID-related protests. Hence, with our results mostly driven by protests related to the BLM movement, we argue that the 2020 wave of protests is directly linked to the hotly debated 1033 program, largely responsible for the excessive militarization of local law enforcement agencies in the past decades. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0122&r= |
| By: | Paul Carrillo-Maldonado; Michalis Nikiforos |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947-2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) remains constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since; it is slightly wage-led over the last fifteen years. |
| Keywords: | Wage-led; Profit-led; Distribution; Growth; Time-Varying Parameters (VAR) |
| JEL: | E11 E12 C11 C3 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1001&r= |
| By: | Carlo Koos; Richard Traunmüller |
| Abstract: | Wartime sexual violence is widespread across conflict zones and thought to leave a disastrous legacy for survivors, communities, and nations. Yet, systematic studies on i) the prevalence and ii) the social and political consequences of wartime sexual violence are fraught with severe data limitations. Based on individual-level survey evidence from three conflict-affected populations in Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, and Sri Lanka, we make two contributions. |
| Keywords: | Wartime sexual violence, List experiment, Post-conflict, Civic participation, Ethnic relations, Trust, War, Violence |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-11&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | I provide a formal explanation of the relationship between the virtues of prudence, justice, and benevolence described by Adam Smith in the Theory of moral sentiments and connect these with the themes Smith subsequently discusses in the Wealth of nations. I contend that the other-regarding concerns Smith discusses as internally held virtues in TMS are presumed addressed instead by formal mechanisms in the WN -- particularly the third-party institutions of law and anonymous market exchange. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith Problem; virtues; institutions; self-interest; altruism |
| JEL: | B12 B15 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202106&r= |
| By: | Èric Roca Fernández (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Annalisa Frigo |
| Abstract: | According to economic theory, access to actionable threats for women should increase their bargaining power in their negotiations with men. We show how female-only communities in medieval Belgium - known as beguinages - served to protect women and relate their presence to higher levels of gender equality centuries after their closure. |
| Abstract: | Donner aux femmes les moyens de mettre à exécution leurs menaces, devrait, selon la théorie économique, donner plus de poids aux femmes dans leurs négociations avec les hommes. Nous montrons comment des communautés exclusivement féminines dans la Belgique médiévale - dites béguinages - ont permis de protéger les femmes. Nous constatons que, des siècles après leur fermeture, les villes où les béguinages s'étaient établis sont devenues plus égalitaires. |
| Keywords: | gender gap,religion,institutions,culture,economic persistence |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03499520&r= |
| By: | Campos, Nauro F.; Macchiarelli, Corrado |
| Abstract: | Despite numerous studies about core-periphery in monetary unions, few focus on their dynamics. This paper (i) presents new theory-based, continuous and dynamic measures of the probability of a country being classified as core or periphery; (ii) estimates the determinants of the changes in this probability over time and across countries; and (iii) uses the Phillips-Sul convergence panel framework to investigate the behaviour of core and periphery groups over time. Our main results indicate that the post-EMU decrease of the core-periphery gap that we document was mainly driven by the adoption of the euro and by increasing competition (lower mark-ups). |
| Keywords: | competition; convergence; core-periphery; Euro; symmetry |
| JEL: | C50 E30 N10 F40 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113423&r= |
| By: | Persson, Maria (Department of Economics, Lund University); Soegaard, Christian (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Welander Tärneberg, Anna (Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence of a positive effect of major infrastructure development on international trade, using the opening of the fixed link between Denmark and Sweden in 2000 (The Oresund Bridge) as a quasi-natural experiment. Our Synthetic Control Method (SCM) constructs a counterfactual Danish-Swedish trade relationship, which represents bilateral trade in the absence of the bridge. Evaluating actual trade against its synthetic counterpart for the period 2001-2008 shows that Danish-Swedish trade was 24.6% larger than it would have been in the absence of the bridge using our preferred specification. The result is robust to standard sensitivity checks. We supplement our analysis with a standard Difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator, which uses fixed effects. The DiD estimator yields a slightly larger trade effect of 26.7%, and is robust to a number of sensitivity analyses, including estimation at the product level. Both our SCM and DiD point to the trade-boosting effects being gradual. |
| Keywords: | Fixed link; bridge; tunnel; transport infrastructure; trade; Synthetic Control Method; Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_003&r= |
| By: | Rowena Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); George Stoye (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ben Zaranko (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of changes in public long-term care spending on the use of public hospitals among the older population in England, and the cost and quality of this care. Mean per-person long-term care spending fell by 31% between 2009/10 and 2017/18 as part of a large austerity programme, but cuts varied considerably geographically. We instrument public long-term care spending with predicted spending based on historical national funding shares and national spending trends. We ?nd public long-term care spending cuts led to substantial increases in the number of emergency department (ED) visits made by patients aged 65 and above, explaining between a quarter and a half of the growth in ED use among this population over this period. The e?ects are most pronounced among older people and those living in more deprived areas. This also resulted in an increase in 7-day ED revisits and emergency readmissions. However, there was no wider impact on inpatient or outpatient hospital use, and consequently little impact on overall public hospital costs. These results suggest that the austerity programme successfully reduced combined public spending on health and long-term care, but had adverse e?ects on the health of vulnerable users. |
| Date: | 2020–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/40&r= |
| By: | Michaela Kecskésová (Department of Economics, Masaryk University); Štěpán Mikula (Department of Economics, Masaryk University) |
| Abstract: | Malaria – a disease caused by parasitic microorganisms of the Plasmodium genus – has been shown to impede economic growth and socioeconomic development in the long-term. In this paper we use annual regional data from India to show that malaria outbreaks are associated with an immediate decline in economic development approximated by night light intensity. We find the association to be significant for outbreaks of both the globally most prevalent Plasmodium species: Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The estimated associations are quite sizeable. Severe outbreaks correlate with night light reductions of 5% of the standard deviation for P. falciparum and 4% for P. vivax. |
| Keywords: | Malaria, Economic development, India, Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, Night light intensity |
| JEL: | I15 R11 R12 N55 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2022-03&r= |
| By: | David Ardia; Keven Bluteau; Mohammad Abbas Meghani |
| Abstract: | Using the structural topic model, we present a landscape of academic finance. We analyze more than 40,000 titles and abstracts published in 32 finance journals over a period ranging from 1992 to 2020. We identify the research topics and explore their relation and prevalence over time and across journals. Our analyses reveal that most journals have covered more topics over time, thus becoming more generalist. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.14902&r= |
| By: | Claver Sanz, Raúl |
| Abstract: | This work explores the degree of intergenerational transmission of education for a sample of more than 19 developing countries for the geographical area that makes up the Asian region, over a time horizon from 1870 to 2010. The quantification of this transmission has revealed considerably high intergenerational correlation indices of more than 0.5, showing a very high transmission of education from one generation to the next, severely constraining patterns of evolution and development and thus stagnating overall growth. In this sense, it documents how this trend towards a lack of intergenerational educational mobility has been one of the reasons for the stagnation of economic growth and development in this region. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Transmission, Education, Asia. |
| JEL: | I24 I25 N30 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111792&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Benveniste (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Renaud Coulomb (University of Melbourne, Department of Economics); Marc Sangnier (University of Namur & Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.) |
| Abstract: | State awards to civilians are a widespread social phenomenon across space and time. This paper quantifies the impact of State awards given to Directors on the stock value of their firms. We link a comprehensive dataset of recipients of the Légion d'honneurthe most prestigious official award in France-over the 1995-2019 period to Board positions in French listed firms. We document large abnormal returns in the stocks of recipients' firms at the date of the award, suggesting that awards signal valuable access to policy-makers. This interpretation is corroborated by the absence of any market reaction for recipients who were already identified before award receipt as being close to the Government. |
| Keywords: | Awards, State Honors, Symbolic Capital, Political Connections |
| JEL: | D71 D72 G14 G18 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2201&r= |
| By: | Loretta J. Mester |
| Abstract: | Despite the challenges, U.S. economic growth was very strong last year. Real GDP grew at a 5.5 percent pace, the highest annual pace since 1984. Firms added a record 6.7 million jobs to their payrolls and the unemployment rate moved down to about 4 percent, close to its pre-pandemic level. The economy’s strength reflected very robust demand by households and businesses. This demand was supported by extraordinary fiscal policy and monetary policy, as well as the deployment of vaccinations, which allowed the economy to reopen more fully. But this strong demand came at the same time there were constraints on product supply and labor supply. The imbalances between supply and demand have put significant upward pressures on prices and wages. Inflation readings in the U.S. are at their highest levels in nearly 40 years, and nominal wages are accelerating at a faster pace than we have seen in decades. |
| Date: | 2022–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:93697&r= |
| By: | 鈴木, 智大; Suzuki, Tomohiro; 積, 惟美; Seki, Koreyoshi |
| Abstract: | 本研究は、その他の包括利益と負債コストとの関係性を実証的に分析している。分析の結 果、債権者はOCIのボラティリティをリスクとして捉え、翌期の利子率に反映させる可 能性が示唆された。また、債権者はとくに為替換算調整勘定の変動をリスクとして利子率 に反映させることが判明した。さらに、他の財務諸表を活用して推定した疑似OCIを用 いた分析では、近年においてOCIと疑似OCIの情報内容がほぼ同質的であることを明 らかにしている。 |
| Keywords: | その他包括利益, 負債コスト, リスク・レリバンス |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hmicwp:248&r= |
| By: | Doruka, Ömer Tuğsal; Pastore, Francesco |
| Abstract: | In this study, for the first time, to our knowledge, we use the propensity score matching algorithm to estimate the probability to remain 'stuck in the status-quo ante' across generations in Egypt. We use repeated cross-sectional data relative to a 20-year period from 1998 to 2018 to build transition matrices of intergenerational occupational mobility. The findings of the econometric analysis hint at a low degree of occupational mobility, with children of fathers in the agricultural sector or holding a blue- or white-collar job remaining linked to the profession of their fathers in most cases and experiencing only rarely upward mobility from agricultural to blue- and white-collar jobs. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational occupational mobility,Status quo bias,Propensity score matching,Egypt |
| JEL: | C35 D64 J24 J62 L16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1018&r= |
| By: | Lamprini Rori; Vasiliki Georgiadou; Costas Roumanias |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a new database (PVGR) on political violence in Greece from 2008 to 2019. PVGR monitors violent episodes reported mainly in online and printed media, stemming both from the far right and the far left. It provides the first existing measure of political violence in Greece for a timespan of eleven years. The uniqueness of our database is two-fold: first, it covers both ideological kinds of extremism: right wing and left wind; second, it registers the whole stairway of low-intensity violent escalation, from physical attacks to terrorism. We gather data on all the internal-supply aspects of political violence: we identify its size, the actors involved and their ideological background, the targets. We further provide measures of frequency, intensity, escalation and geographical distribution, which permit us to configure political violence in crisis-ridden Greece. We find an important increase in political violence in the period under study. We contribute to the literature of political violence in several ways. First, we offer the first comprehensive database of political violence in Greece. Second, we typologize evidence in analytical categories and measures, thus contributing to the classification of the phenomenon beyond ideological doctrines. Third, we clarify similarities and differences between the two kinds of violence, which implies specific policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Intensity Violence, political extremism, radical right, radical left |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:167&r= |
| By: | Adam Gorajek; Benjamin A. Malin |
| Abstract: | Using a novel meta-analytical method, Brodeur et al. (2016) argue that hypothesis tests in top economic journals have exaggerated levels of statistical significance. Brodeur et al. (2020) apply the same method to another sample of hypothesis tests, obtaining similar results. We investigate the reliability of the method by highlighting questionable assumptions and compiling a dataset to examine their merits. Our findings support the original conclusions. |
| Keywords: | Researcher bias; Research credibility; Research replicability; Z-curve |
| JEL: | A11 C13 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93460&r= |
| By: | Ciprian Corneliu Ciurea (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | During the communist period, Romanian authorities faced a problem specific to the Adventist Church - the Adventist children did not attend school on Saturdays. Although they used the most varied methods of persuasion and coercion of children and parents to solve this problem, the authorities have not managed to fully defeat their resistance. This was the "big Adventist problem" that caused serious problems both to the Department of Cults and to the Securitate bodies, the Ministry of Education, the County School Inspectorates, the organizations of pioneers and youth, and the schools. |
| Keywords: | church, Adventists, pupils, students, communism, repressive measures, Saturday |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0105&r= |
| By: | Carrera, Leandro; Angelaki, Marina |
| Abstract: | Pension policy is a highly political issue across Latin America. Since the mid-2000s, several countries have re-reformed their pension systems with a general trend toward more state involvement, yet with significant variation. This article contends that policy legacies and the institutional political setting are key to understanding such variation. Analyzing the cases of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, this article shows that where a weak legacy, characterized by low coverage and savings rates, a weakly organized pension industry, and strong societal groups that oppose the private system, combines with a strong institutional setting, characterized by a government with large support in Congress and where the president concentrates decisionmaking, re-reform outcomes may lead to the outright elimination of the private pillar. Conversely, where a strong legacy combines with a weak institutional setting, re-reform outcomes will tend to maintain the private pillar and expand only the role of the public one. |
| Keywords: | Pension reform; policy change; Latin America; institutions; policy legacy; CUP |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112478&r= |
| By: | George Agwu (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AE-FUNAI - Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo); Oussama Ben Atta (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de l'ESC Pau - ESC Pau) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of geographical proximity to universities on educational attainment in Nigeria. We relate individuals level of schooling obtained from three rounds of the Nigeria's Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) to spatial distance to university measured by pairing residential and university campuses GPS coordinates. To identify the effect of the distance to university, we exploit the theory of residential sorting to instrument residential proximity to university. Specifically, we instrument distance to university drawing on variations in households' proximity to state boundary posts and neighbourhood population density. The instrumental variable estimates show a negative and significant effect of distance revealing that geographical constraints during teenage years represent a barrier to the subsequent human capital acquisition. Additional results from a difference-indifference estimation strategy indicate that a large scale establishment of universities had beneficial trickle-down effects by decreasing the intention to drop out of secondary school, supporting evidence of the role of geographical constraints in the accumulation of human capital in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Educational attainment,Distance to university,University attendance,School dropout,Nigeria |
| Date: | 2021–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03492963&r= |
| By: | Francisco Amaral; Martin Dohmen; Sebastian Kohl; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | Houses are the largest asset for most households in the United States, as is the case in many other countries as well. Within countries, there is substantial regional variation in house prices—compare real estate values in Manhattan, New York City, with those in Manhattan, Kansas, for example. But what about returns on investment? Are long-run returns on real estate investment—the sum of price appreciation and rental income flows—higher in superstar cities like New York than in the rest of the country? In this blog post, we present new and potentially surprising insights from research comparing long-run returns on residential real estate in a nation’s largest cities to those experienced in the rest of the country (Amaral et al., 2021), covering the U.S. and fourteen other advanced economies over the past century. |
| Keywords: | housing returns; spatial economics; household finance |
| JEL: | E2 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93656&r= |
| By: | Sabeen Azam (Greenwich University, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | In the International scenario, the world order is shifting from time to time. From post-modernism to the current modern era, the terms and relations of the countries have been gone through changes. The previous First, Second and Third world concepts are still going through alteration. The term "third world" was coined to designate nations that did not develop economically capitalist (the first world) nor was part of the communist system of the Soviet Union (second world). The term became inappropriate and then later disappeared. But the recent history of each country has forced us to rethink about the nations who are considered within or outside the group. Based on the characteristics which each class possesses out of the all the existing countries of the world. The main international organization United Nations must revisit the reforms and ought to bound the member states to follow international law. As the exploitations and balance of the power should be maintained. The key role is of the United Nations to maintain the development in all countries of the world. |
| Keywords: | Term, Third World, United Nations, Role, Development |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0108&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro; Jacopo Magurno; Romano Tarsia |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the evolution of the literature on Central Bank Independence (CBI) focusing on its metrics as well as on its empirical association with macroeconomic variables. Part One describes the evolution of the CBI indicators, while Part Two analyses the econometric studies devoted to shed light on the relationships between CBI and macroeconomic performances. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Central Bank Independence, Inflation, Growth, Sacrifice Ratio, Public Finance, Financial Stability |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21151&r= |
| By: | Weilun Wu (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This study replicates Leigh and Jencks’ (2007) analysis of the relationship between income inequality and mortality. Using L&J’s preferred specification, I am able to closely reproduce their original findings after reconstructing their data from original sources. When I use multiple imputation instead of their method of linear interpolation, I largely confirm their results. When I extend their data from 2003 to 2018, I again do not find a significant relationship between income inequality and mortality. As a result, I conclude that my replication exercise confirms L&J’s results, providing even stronger evidence for the view that income inequality is not adversely related to mortality. |
| Keywords: | Income Inequality, Health, Mortality, Multiple Imputation |
| JEL: | I12 N30 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:22/01&r= |
| By: | Swallow, Brent M. |
| Abstract: | Collaborative international research on tenure dates back at least to the early 1960s when the Land Tenure Centre was established at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and conducted some studies in collaboration with CGIAR social scientists. CGIAR interest in tenure increased in the early 1990s when natural resource management was strengthened as a component of the CGIAR agenda and the Centers on forests, agroforestry, and water (CIFOR, ICRAF, and IWMI) entered the system. CAPRi began to operate as a systemwide research program on tenure and collective action in the mid-1990s, and became PIM Flagship 5 on governance of natural resources in 2011. From 2021, a renewed research agenda on tenure is essential for advancing the One CGIAR mission of “science and innovation that advance transformation of food, land and water systems in a climate crisis.†|
| Keywords: | WORLD, tenure security, land tenure, sustainable development, investment, research, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379954&r= |
| By: | Stock-Homburg, Ruth |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:129822&r= |
| By: | Bruno Jeandidier (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Cécile Bourreau-Dubois (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Mansuy (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437613&r= |
| By: | Clarissa Lotti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Giancarlo Spagnolo (Stockholm University, University of Rome Tor Vergata, EIEF, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | An influential study by Bandiera, Prat and Valletti (2009) exploits the introduction of a central purchasing agency in Italy to identify the amount and sources of public waste. Among other findings, it estimates that purchasing through a central agency directly saves 28% on prices. We find that centralized prices also have significant indirect effects, leading to a 17.7% reduction among non-centralized ones. The indirect effects of centralization appear driven by informational externalities – rather than an improved outside option – on less competent public buyers purchasing more complex goods. Accounting for indirect savings also increases the estimate of direct ones. |
| Keywords: | Centralization, Informational externalities, Procurement, Public Contracts |
| JEL: | D44 H11 H57 H83 L38 L88 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:532&r= |
| By: | Tiago Moreira Ramalho |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/337630&r= |
| By: | Edouard Ribes (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple economic model describing retirees' use of bequests. The model assumes that retirees need long term care and have preferences regarding the source of this support. Support can either be bought from the market (at a fixed rate) or sourced from within their family and compensated through bequests. When calibrated, the model shows that for individuals to get at least 1h of daily care, they must, independently of their education level, save about 20% of their pension in the early years of their retirement. However, differences in the source of support appear between non educated and educated households. It is indeed much easier to get support from family members in non-educated households compared to educated ones. Those results suggest that non educated households are also less likely to contract financial insurance products for long term care as they can easily leverage informal arrangements (i.e. their family). |
| Keywords: | Bequests,Inheritances,Intergenerational transfers,Wealth inequalities,Wealth management |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03498481&r= |
| By: | Isaac Antwi-Boasiako (School of Media, Technological University Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | The concept of public diplomacy is one of the trending approaches in modern international relations and diplomacy. Communicating and engaging effectively with the foreign public in a particular nation by a government to achieve its foreign policy objective is every government’s goal. The field of public diplomacy as an academic discipline in Ghana in particular and Africa has not received much attention compared to the Western World. This article attempts to bridge this gap by opening Ghana’s public diplomacy to academic scrutiny that has, as yet, been underdeveloped. This paper’s principal objective is to bring to light the public diplomacy instruments used by the indefatigable first president of Ghana, Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, to propagate his pan-Africanism foreign policy in the 1960s against capitalism and communism after Ghana’s independence. It also looks briefly at Nkrumah’s general foreign policy agenda through the lens of public diplomacy. Methodologically, it uses content analysis of documents to explore how Nkrumah adopted the public diplomacy tactics during his presidency to sell his foreign policy. The article explores the topic under the theoretical framework of Golan’s Integrated Public Diplomacy model. It concludes that public diplomacy under Kwame Nkrumah should be the foundation and ignite its incorporation into Ghana’s tertiary education and current foreign policy strategies. |
| Keywords: | public diplomacy, communication, Kwame Nkrumah, pan-Africanism, foreign policy |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0067&r= |
| By: | Alain Raybaut (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03505462&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper opens up a study of economic convergence in Asia. This convergence refers to the ability of developing economies to catch up with the developed ones in terms of levels and growth rates of real per capita GDP. The study uses the lens of neoclassical growth models, both the basic models of Robert Solow and Trevor Swan, along with the models of Robert Lucas Jr. and Paul Romer in endogenous growth theory to interpret observed growth in Asia. Data are taken from the 45 developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank. The study supports conditional convergence but not absolute convergence. That is the lagging economies can catch up with the leading economies provided the former can adopt advanced technologies, such as, those that feature human-capital investments, learning-by-doing and increasing returns from knowledge accumulation. |
| Keywords: | economic convergence; neoclassical growth models; Asia |
| JEL: | N15 O11 O42 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202009&r= |
| By: | Ziesemer, Thomas (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We update the Gini coefficients of education to include the year 2015, added to the Barro-Lee data set recently. A panel analysis shows that every five years education inequality falls by 2.8 percentage points. A stable average value is predicted to be 0.22. Kernel densities loose their twin peaks when going from 1955 to later years. |
| Keywords: | Gini coefficients of education, new data, trend, stability, changing global distribution |
| JEL: | E24 I24 I25 O15 Y1 |
| Date: | 2021–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021047&r= |
| By: | Radicati, Alessandra |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the aspirational urban form of the ‘world-class city’ is produced from within the city itself. Rather than focusing on global competition between cities, the analysis considers how local actors in key industries discursively and materially produce the world-class city through their labor. The analytic of connection is introduced as central to understanding how world-class city-making projects are achieved. Based on ethnographic fieldwork in Colombo’s high-end real estate sector, the article examines how a successful broker creates and manages connections across different scales and registers. It focuses on three key areas: (1) the rhetorical connections drawn between luxury real estate and national development; (2) the connections created between wealthy foreign clients and local property owners and (3) the work of connecting disparate narratives about supply and demand for luxury housing. I highlight that against the backdrop of considerable economic and political uncertainty, connections are valuable even if they do not result in immediate profit. Offering a glimpse into the world of white-collar professionals in the luxury real estate industry, this paper underscores that world-class city-making projects are embedded in local realities even as they reflect generalized patterns of urban development. |
| Keywords: | real estate; connection; world-class city; aspiration; labor; Colombo; Sri Lanka; PhD award; Sage |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112566&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the reliability of information sources on choices under ambiguity. Using the Ellsberg's (1961) framework it studies two conjectures. First, the conditions of appearance of the Ellsberg paradox when the information source offers two probable proportions of red and black balls in two urns. Second, the consequence on choices of a non-reliable information source. This source proposes a unique proportion of red and black balls against an unknown one (inside box 1). |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty theory,decision theory,ambiguity aversion,Information I1,I18,I19,D80,D81,D83 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502603&r= |
| By: | Petre Buneci (Ecological University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The plurality of criminals over time has evolved, so that today we have a natural plurality, constituted plurality, occasional plurality or criminal participation. Thus, within the criminal participation, the accomplices carry out a secondary activity in the sense of facilitating, helping or promising the perpetrator (co-perpetrators) who commit the act directly. This activity of the accomplice takes place before or at the same time as the commission of the criminal act. In judicial practice, the modalities of complicity (previous, concomitant, moral, and material, negative) in which a person intentionally facilitates or helps the perpetrator to commit a criminal act have been shown. |
| Keywords: | plurality, criminal participation, complicity, authors, co-authors, Criminal Code |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0107&r= |
| By: | Rute Martins Caeiro |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the pathways of technology diffusion through social networks, following the experimental introduction of new technologies in Guinea-Bissau. In the context of an agricultural extension project, we document both the direct effects of this intervention and subsequent diffusion from trainees to the wider community. In order to test for social learning, we exploit a detailed census of households and social connections across different social dimensions. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Technology, Knowledge diffusion, Social networks, Technological innovations, Learning |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-7&r= |
| By: | Marion Seigneurin (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Chaire Good in Tech - TSP - Télécom SudParis - Institut Louis Bachelier - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Télécom Paris); Christine Balagué (MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Chaire Good in Tech - TSP - Télécom SudParis - Institut Louis Bachelier - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Télécom Paris); Kevin Mellet (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Sommée de se transformer, l'industrie publicitaire a engagé depuis quelques années une démarche – relativement nouvelle pour le secteur – de responsabilisation. L'impact sociétal de la publicité numérique se décline autour de plusieurs points de tension tels que les algorithmes, le concept de privacy, les formats de publicités digitales ou encore l'impact écologique de cette dernière. L'ampleur de ces enjeux questionne et souligne l'importance d'une pratique responsable de la publicité numérique. Une telle responsabilité émerge chez certains acteurs de la publicité numérique et la dynamique d'autorégulation du secteur peut désormais porter les initiatives existantes sur le devant de la scène pour leur permettre de jouer un rôle prépondérant dans la transformation des pratiques du secteur. L'objectif de ce rapport est de revenir sur les dynamiques de l'écosystème de la publicité numérique, de mettre à jour les controverses historiques et émergentes autour du rôle et de l'impact de la publicité mais également d'établir un panorama des pratiques responsables existantes et des recommandations à ce sujet. Une série d'une vingtaine d'interviews menées auprès des acteurs de la publicité numérique responsable (agences, régies publicitaires, entreprises AdTech, plateformes, acteurs de l'autorégulation, associations et chercheurs), nourrit ce rapport et nous permet également de soulever les enjeux émergents de la publicité numérique responsable pour en proposer une analyse plus approfondie. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03395443&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Fredrik N. G. (Department of Economics, Lund University); Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The EU’s fiscal rules, set out in the Maastricht Treaty of 1993 and the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997, are anchored to GDP. The debt ceiling and the deficit threshold are set to 60 percent and 3 percent of GDP, respectively. Recently, prominent economists and policymakers, have argued that that the debt ceiling should be raised due to falling bond yields. By extension, this argument suggests a shift from GDP anchoring to bond yield anchoring of the EU fiscal framework. We discuss the risks of basing the fiscal rules on the bond yield rather than on the GDP. While such a change would provide short-run relief to highly indebted EU member states, it implies high long-run risks to fiscal sustainability should bond yields rise in the future. We conclude that GDP serves as a better anchor for the EU fiscal framework than the bond rate under present circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal framework; European Union; ECB; Stability and Growth Pact; secular stagnation; modern monetary theory; government debt; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E50 E60 H60 N10 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; David O. Lucca; James Vickery |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, with a particular emphasis on agency residential MBS in the United States. We discuss the institutional environment, security design, MBS risks and asset pricing, and the economic effects of mortgage securitization. We also assemble descriptive statistics about market size, growth, security characteristics, prepayment, and trading activity. Throughout, we highlight insights from the expanding body of academic research on the MBS market and mortgage securitization. |
| Keywords: | mortgage finance; securitization; agency mortgage-backed securities; TBA; option-adjusted spreads; covered bonds |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93695&r= |
| By: | Basualdo, Marcos Antonio |
| Keywords: | Centralismo; Concentración; Administración Pública; |
| Date: | 2020–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3594&r= |
| By: | Kusserow, Kim Marei |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305615&r= |
| By: | Antoine Missemer (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Le lexique économique employé pour désigner des composantes de la nature est souvent accusé de biaiser nos représentations et nos modes de gestion de l'environnement. Contribuant au processus de commodification de la nature, il aurait même sa part dans la dégradation des écosystèmes. Cet article revient sur l'histoire des concepts de services écosystémiques et de capital naturel pour mieux comprendre comment s'est forgée, il y a parfois longtemps, l'articulation lexicale entre économie et écologie. Il en ressort une lecture plus nuancée que celle d'un simple impérialisme scientifique opéré par l'économie sur nos représentations du monde naturel. Forcée au dialogue, la discipline économique n'apparaît pas si imperméable que cela à la réalité des dynamiques biophysiques et écosystémiques, à condition de connaître la portée véritable des mots que l'on emploie. |
| Keywords: | capital naturel,services écosystémiques,commodification,performativité,impérialisme scientifique,histoire de la pensée économique |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03502292&r= |
| By: | Federico M. Ferrara; Donato Masciandaro; Manuela Moschella; Davide Romelli |
| Abstract: | Previous scholarship on central bank accountability has generally focused on monetary authorities' deeds and words while largely ignoring the other side of the accountability relationship, namely politicians’ voice on monetary policy. This raises a fundamental question: what are central banks held accountable for by elected officials? To answer this question, we employ structural topic models on a new dataset of the Monetary Dialogues between the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) from 1999 to 2019. Our findings are twofold. First, we uncover differences in how MEPs keep the ECB accountable for its primary, price stability objective. We show that European politicians also attempt to keep the central bank accountable for a broader set of issues that are connected with, but distinct from, the central bank's primary goal. Second, we show that unemployment is a key explanatory variable for the political voice articulated by individual MEPs in accountability settings. In particular, higher rates of domestic unemployment lead MEPs to devote less voice on issues related to the ECB’s price stability mission. These findings reveal the existence of a "political" Phillips curve reaction function, which enriches our understanding of the principal-agent accountability relationship between politicians and central bankers. |
| Keywords: | Accountability; European Central Bank; politicians; European Parliament |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21159&r= |
| By: | Lokdam, Hjalte |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the Euro crisis, the mission statement on the European Central Bank's (ECB) website was changed from ‘Our mission is to serve Europe's citizens’ to ‘Our mission is to serve the people of Europe’. This article situates this discursive shift within a broader change of the ECB's self-presentation in public discourses and explores its meaning in terms of political theory and public law. The article argues that the shift represents a response to the perceived necessity of reimagining the ECB's foundation of legitimate governmental authority following its exercise of emergency powers during the Euro crisis. The discourse emphasizes an organic link between the ECB and ‘the people of Europe’ as a political subject able to authorize previously unauthorized governmental practices such as the outright monetary transactions programme. It reflects, furthermore, a new governing philosophy that stresses flexibility and discretion rather than strict adherence to rules in the ECB's exercise of power. |
| Keywords: | European Central Bank; Euro crisis; OMT; sovereignty; emergency politics |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111873&r= |
| By: | Carl Grekou |
| Abstract: | This publication, accompanying the 2021’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2020. Overall, changes in currency misalignments during 2020 have been rather modest except few EMEs that registered important movements. Among advanced economies, the picture was broadly unchanged. The US dollar registered a slight increase of its overvaluation; the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen registered an upward movement that led to the reduction of the undervaluations. The euro area is again featured with various situations with undervaluations prevailing in Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands while Belgium, France, Italy were close to their equilibrium. In EMEs, the Brazilian real registered the largest swings against the US dollar and have consequently seen a dramatic increase of its undervaluation. The Turkish lira continued its plunge against the US dollar and also increased its undervaluation. In contrast, the Chinese renminbi remained relatively stable and appeared broadly in line with its fundamental value. |
| Keywords: | EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Global Imbalances |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E6 F3 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Italo Colantone; Gianmarco Ottaviano; Piero Stanig |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the globalization backlash, seen as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. Using newly assembled data for 23 advanced democracies, we document a protectionist and isolationist shift in electorates, legislatures, and executives from the mid-1990s onwards. This is associated with a noticeable protectionist shift in trade policy –although with some notable nuances– especially since the financial crisis of 2008. We discuss the economics of the backlash. From a theoretical perspective, we highlight how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when taking into account the ‘social footprint’ of globalization. Then, we review the empirical literature on the drivers of the backlash. Two main messages emerge from our analysis: (1) globalization is a significant driver of the backlash, by means of the distributional consequences entailed by rising trade exposure; yet (2) the backlash is only partly determined by trade. Technological change, crisis-driven fiscal austerity, immigration, and cultural concerns are found to play an important role in creating politically consequential cleavages. Looking ahead, we discuss possible future developments, with specific focus on the issue of social mobility |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Social Footprint, Backlash |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21165&r= |
| By: | Cowan, Robin (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, BETA, University of Strasbourg, and CREST, University of Stellenbosch); Müller, Moritz (BETA, University of Strasbourg); Kirman, Alan (Ecole des Hautes Etudes de Sciences Sociales); Barnard, Helena (GIBS, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | Because discrimination is systemic, efforts to counter it, and thus policy interventions, must also be systemic. The South African case is particularly instructive because it is so extreme: Apartheid deliberately excluded the vast majority of the population, black South Africans, from fully participating in society, but post-Apartheid efforts to achieve transformation have had limited success. This paper hones in on a key enabler of transformation, the university system. A successful transformation will be characterized by a larger academic system to accommodate the many previously disadvantaged students, by growing scientific quality and by more black academics so that the proportion of black to white academics resembles that of South Africans generally. This will require more black South Africans to do PhDs, to select academic careers, and to be selected into the top South African universities. Policy interventions can be developed for each of these many constituent elements, but it is not known whether policies will be complementary or contradictory. To determine the outcomes of different options, this paper uses computer simulations, calibrated with evidence from South Africa since the end of Apartheid. The simulations reveal very few direct trade-offs, although different combinations result in different benefits. By highlighting the (larger and smaller) gains and costs of different combinations of policies, the paper can therefore support informed policy-making about a highly complex issue. |
| Keywords: | discrimination; transformation; universities, South Africa |
| JEL: | I2 J15 J18 J7 |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021040&r= |
| By: | Emla Fitzsimons (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Marcos Vera-Hernandez (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | We show that children who are born at or just before the weekend are less likely to be breastfed, owing to poorer breastfeeding support services in hospitals at weekends. We use this variation to estimate the effect of breastfeeding on children’s development in the first five years of life, for a sample of births of low educated mothers. We find large effects of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive development but no effects on health or non-cognitive development during the period of childhood we consider. Regarding mechanisms, we study how breastfeeding affects parental investments and the quality of the mother-child relationship. |
| Date: | 2021–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/38&r= |
| By: | Uta Bolt (Institute for Fiscal Studies and UCL); Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London and University of Cambridge); Jamie Hentall-MacCuish (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Cormac O'Dea (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Using data covering a single cohort’s ?rst 55 years of life, we show that most of the intergenerational elasticity of earnings (IGE) is explained by di?erences in: years of schooling, cognitive skills, investments of parental time and school quality, and family circumstances during childhood. To decompose the fraction of the IGE explained by each of these channels, we implement a multi-level mediation analysis combined with a latent factor framework that accounts for measurement error. Multilevel mediation analysis allows us to assess not only the direct e?ect of each channel on the IGE, but also its indirect e?ects working through the other channels, thus providing an in-depth understanding of the link between parents’ and children’s earnings. Of these channels, we show that the main driver of the IGE is increased levels of parental investments received by children of high income parents early in their lives, which encourages greater cognitive development and lifetime earnings. |
| Date: | 2021–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/07&r= |
| By: | Zimmermann, Julia; Carter, Alex |
| Keywords: | hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery; OUP deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112751&r= |
| By: | José Manuel Fernández Polanco; Ángel Herrero Crespo |
| Abstract: | Los efectos de la información difundida en los medios de comunicación de masas acerca de la industria de la acuicultura sobre el comportamiento de compra se contrastan por medio de la inclusión de un índice que mide la intensidad y el contenido de las noticias publicadas en la función de demanda de dorada en España durante un período de cinco años. Los resultados del ajuste de un VAR confirman observaciones previas en el mercado de salmón que sugieren un efecto positivo, aunque débil, sobre las cantidades demandadas. |
| Keywords: | Acuicultura, medios de masa, demanda, dorada |
| JEL: | M31 Q13 Q22 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ovr:docfra:2201&r= |
| By: | Ravipati, Kaushik; Chen, Yunxiao; Manns, Joseph R. |
| Abstract: | Objective: To assess whether diabetes alone or in association with Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype increases the risk of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) diagnosis. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 33,456 participants from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center database. Results: Participants with one or two APOE ε4 alleles had 2.71 (CI:2.55–2.88) and 9.37 (CI:8.14–10.78) times higher odds of AD diagnosis, respectively, relative to those with zero ε4 alleles. In contrast, diabetic participants showed 1.07 (CI:0.96–1.18) times higher odds of AD relative to nondiabetics. Diabetes did not exacerbate the odds of AD in APOE ε4 carriers. APOE ε4 carriage was correlated with declines in long-term memory and verbal fluency, which were strongly correlated with conversion to AD. However, diabetes was correlated with working memory decline, which had a relatively weak correlation with AD. Conclusions: Unlike APOE ε4, there was little evidence that diabetes was a risk factor for AD. |
| Keywords: | Alzheimer’s Disease; APOE ε4 allele; diabetes; long-term memory; structural equation modeling; working memory |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113607&r= |
| By: | Bluhm, Richard (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Leibniz University Hannover, Institute of Macroeconomics); Lessmann, Christian (Technische Universität Dresden, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, and CESifo Munich); Schaudt, Paul (University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study the link between subnational capital cities and urban development using a global data set of hundreds of first-order administrative and capital city reforms from 1987 until 2018. We show that gaining subnational capital status has a sizable effect on city growth in the medium run. We provide new evidence that the effect of these reforms depends on locational fundamentals, such as market access, and that the effect is greater in countries where urbanization and industrialization occurred later. Consistent with both an influx of public investments and a private response of individuals and firms, we document that urban built-up, population, foreign aid, infrastructure, and foreign direct investment in several sectors increase once cities become subnational capitals. |
| Keywords: | capital cities, administrative reforms, economic geography, urban primacy |
| JEL: | H10 R11 R12 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021039&r= |
| By: | Jose Enrique Devesa Carpio (Universitat de València); Maria del Mar Devesa Carpio (Universitat de València); Francisco Borja Encinas Goenechea (Universidad de Extremadura); Inmaculada Domínguez Fabián (Universidad de Extremadura); Miguel Ángel García Díaz (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos); Robert Meneu Gaya (Universitat de València) |
| Abstract: | One of the aspects of the pension reform that has been under negotiation since mid-2021 is the modification of the Special Scheme for Self-Employed Workers (Régimen Especial de Trabajadores Autónomos RETA). According to the news that has spread, the new RETA may entail important changes with respect to the previous system, such as: a) The real returns declared for tax purposes will be taken into account, not being able to choose the contribution bases as was the case until now; b) the contribution payment will be set based on a series of return intervals (steps), which implies the disappearance of a single rate of contribution, as was the case up to now; c) a long transitory period is established (from 2023 to 2031) for its final implementation.Using a quota system and a function by steps means that not all affiliates are going to be subject to the same contribution rate, which implies a change with respect to what happened until now in the RETA and in the General Scheme (Régimen General).Although the application of the new quota table that appeared in January 2022 represents a slight improvement of the RETA, it continues to present important deficiencies in terms of the fairness of the system in several areas: a) within the RETA itself; b) regarding the General Scheme; c) during the transitional period, prominently.We propose a simple and transparent solution of using tax returns as a contribution base and continuing to apply a single contribution rate for all self-employed workers. In addition, this rate should be similar to that of the General Scheme. This would avoid most of the problems that we have detected and would make it possible to maintain tax returns as a reference, which we consider to be an important advance for the equalization with the General Scheme. Uno de los aspectos de la reforma de las pensiones que se está negociando desde mediados de 2021 es la modificación del Régimen Especial de Trabajadores Autónomos (RETA). Según las noticias que han trascendido, el nuevo RETA puede suponer importantes cambios respecto al sistema anterior, pudiendo destacarse: a) Se tendrán en cuenta los rendimientos reales declarados fiscalmente, no pudiendo elegir las bases de cotización como ocurría hasta ahora; b) la cuota a pagar se fijará en función de una serie de intervalos (escalones) de rendimientos, lo que implica la desaparición de un tipo de cotización único, como ocurría hasta ahora; c) se establece un periodo transitorio largo (desde 2023 a 2031) para su implantación definitiva.Utilizar un sistema de cuotas y una función por escalones supone que no todos los afiliados van a estar sujetos al mismo tipo de cotización, lo que implica una quiebra respecto a lo que ocurría hasta ahora en el RETA y en el Régimen General.Aunque la aplicación de nueva tabla de cuotas aparecida en enero de 2022 supone una ligera mejora del RETA, éste sigue presentando importantes deficiencias en cuanto a la equidad del sistema en varios ámbitos: a) dentro del propio RETA; b) respecto al Régimen General; c) durante el periodo transitorio, de manera destacada.Proponemos como solución sencilla y transparente la de utilizar los rendimientos fiscales como base de cotización y seguir aplicando un tipo de cotización único para todos los autónomos y que, además, sea similar al del Régimen General. Esto evitaría la mayor parte de problemas que hemos detectado y permitiría mantener como referencia los rendimientos fiscales, que consideramos que es un avance importante en la equiparación con el Régimen General. |
| Keywords: | Sistema de pensiones; Equidad; Régimen General; Tipo de cotización Pension system; Equity; General Scheme; Contribution rate |
| JEL: | H55 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpivie:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Nagui Bechichi (INSEE); Julien Grenet (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Georgia Thebault (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03501118&r= |
| By: | Florent Venayre (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française) |
| Abstract: | L'Autorité polynésienne de la concurrence (APC) confirme, avec une troisième décision relative au secteur de la distribution de détail à dominante alimentaire, que l'année 2021 marque l'évolution de sa pratique en matière de contrôle des aménagements commerciaux (décision n° 2021-SC-04 du 3 novembre 2021 relative à l'ouverture d'un magasin de commerce de détail sous l'enseigne Super Moz d'une surface de vente de 790 m² situé dans la commune de Te'Avaro à Moorea). |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03502177&r= |
| By: | Ayad El Baz (UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali); Zakariae Belmkaddem (UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali) |
| Date: | 2020–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03426972&r= |
| By: | Nurdaulet Abilov (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Aizhan Bolatbayeva (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the modified expectation-maximization algorithm of Banbura and Modugno (2014) to estimate a factor model using an incomplete and mixed-frequency dataset for Russia. We estimate and check the forecast accuracy of factor models that differ in the number of factors, the lag structure of the factors, and the presence of autocorrelation in the idiosyncratic component. We choose the best model using the root mean squared forecast error and use the model to compute news contributions to forecast revisions of GDP growth in Russia around crisis periods. We find that the benchmark model with a medium-size dataset and four factors outperforms all other versions of the factor model, simple AR(1) and random walk models. The news contributions to GDP growth revisions around economic downturns in Russia show that the benchmark factor model is extremely good at capturing the impact of new data releases on GDP growth revisions. |
| Keywords: | Factor model; EM-algorithm; Nowcasting; Business cycle index; Russia. |
| JEL: | C53 C55 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajx:wpaper:18&r= |
| By: | Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony Lepinteur (Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We use data from the COME-HERE longitudinal survey collected by the University of Luxembourg to assess the effects of the policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on life satisfaction in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden over the course of 2020. Policy responses are measured by the Stringency Index and the Economic Support Index from the Blavatnik School of Government. Stringency is systematically associated with lower life satisfaction, controlling for the intensity of the pandemic itself. This stringency effect is larger for women, those with weak ties to the labor market, and in richer households. The effect of the Economic Support is never statistically different from zero. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Life satisfaction,Policy stringency,Economic support |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03467211&r= |
| By: | Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich and ifo Institute; CESifo); Ludger Woessmann (University of Munich and ifo Institute; Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo, IZA, and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | We show that the electorate’s preferences for using tuition to finance higher education strongly depend on the design of the payment scheme. In representative surveys of the German electorate (N>18,000), experimentally replacing regular upfront by deferred income-contingent payments increases public support for tuition by 18 percentage points. The treatment turns a plurality opposed to tuition into a strong majority of 62 percent in favor. Additional experiments reveal that the treatment effect similarly shows when framed as loan repayments, when answers carry political consequences, and in a survey of adolescents. Reduced fairness concerns and improved student situations act as strong mediators. |
| Keywords: | tuition; higher education finance; income-contingent loans; voting. |
| JEL: | H52 I22 D72 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:19&r= |
| By: | Dispan, Jürgen; Frieske, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Die Perspektiven vieler Standorte von Automobilzulieferern sind im Zeichen der Transformation unsicher geworden. Die Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs wird forciert und der Pkw-Absatz verschiebt sich schneller als erwartet zu batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugen. Eine strategische Neuorientierung auf Produkte jenseits des Verbrenners ist für Zulieferer zur Notwendigkeit geworden. An den Standorten geht es darum, den Fade-out konventioneller Produkte mit dem Fade-in neuer Produkte zu koordinieren und die Beschäftigten dabei mitzunehmen. Ein wichtiges Handlungsfeld für Mitbestimmungsträger ist das Einfordern nachhaltiger Standortstrategien. |
| Keywords: | Transformationsprozess,E-Mobilität,Elektroauto,alternative Antriebe,Betriebsrat |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:234&r= |
| By: | Nagui Bechichi (INSEE); Julien Grenet (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Georgia Thebault (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie l'impact de l'introduction de la plateforme Parcoursup en 2018 sur la ségrégation à l'entrée des études supérieures en France en fonction du niveau scolaire, de l'origine sociale et du genre des étudiants. À l'aide des données administratives de pré-inscription du supérieur de 2013 à 2019, ces phénomènes sont mesurés au moyen d'indices d'exposition normalisés. En 2017, les néo-bacheliers se répartissent inégalement dans les formations d'enseignement supérieur en fonction de leur niveau scolaire, de leur origine sociale et de leur genre. La moitié de la ségrégation scolaire et de la ségrégation sociale provient de la répartition des étudiants entre les grandes catégories de formations (licence, classes préparatoires, BTS, IUT, etc.), tandis que la ségrégation femmes-hommes s'effectue davantage entre filières d'études au sein de chacune de ces catégories. Une grande partie de la ségrégation à l'entrée dans l'enseignement supérieur est déjà présente dans les voeux exprimés par les candidats, alors que les classements des candidats opérés par les formations n'y contribuent que faiblement. La mise en place de Parcoursup en 2018 a eu un fort impact sur les pratiques de classement des formations non sélectives (licences universitaires) : la part des mentions bien ou très bien est ainsi passée de 29 % à 59 % parmi les candidats recevant en premier une proposition d'admission. Cependant, les niveaux de ségrégation mesurés selon les trois dimensions étudiées sont globalement stables. Dans les licences en tension, les nouvelles règles de classement des candidats ont eu un impact substantiel, celles-ci ne disposant pas d'une capacité d'accueil suffisante pour admettre tous ceux souhaitant s'y inscrire. La dernière partie de l'étude montre que la mise en place de Parcoursup a modifié de manière plus nette la répartition des étudiants entre les formations d'Île-de-France, territoire où se concentrent de nombreuses licences en tension et où la ségrégation sociale et scolaire est historiquement élevée. |
| Keywords: | Enseignement supérieur,Procédures d’affectation,Ségrégation scolaire |
| Date: | 2021–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03501119&r= |
| By: | Han Gao; Mariano Kulish; Juan Pablo Nicolini |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Monetary aggregates; Money demand |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93496&r= |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Florens (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anna Simoni (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role played by identification in the Bayesian analysis of statistical and econometric models. First, for unidentified models we demonstrate that there are situations where the introduction of a non-degenerate prior distribution can make a parameter that is nonidentified in frequentist theory identified in Bayesian theory. In other situations, it is preferable to work with the unidentified model and construct a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for it instead of introducing identifying assumptions. Second, for partially identified models we demonstrate how to construct the prior and posterior distributions for the identified set parameter and how to conduct Bayesian analysis. Finally, for models that contain some parameters that are identified and others that are not we show that marginalizing out the identified parameter from the likelihood with respect to its conditional prior, given the nonidentified parameter, allows the data to be informative about the nonidentified and partially identified parameter. The paper provides examples and simulations that illustrate how to implement our techniques. |
| Keywords: | Minimal Sufficiency,Exact Estimability,Set identification,Dirichlet Process,Capacity functional,Nonparametric models. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03504692&r= |
| By: | 高橋, 宏承; Takahashi, Hirotsugu |
| Abstract: | 本研究では，客観的な概念として扱われる孤立を用いて，組織で孤立が発生するメカニズムとその要因について組織構成員のパーソナリティの観点から分析を行う．そのためにネットワーク論の視座を孤立研究と統合し，マルチエージェント・シミュレーション手法を分析手法として採用した．その結果，主に高外向性構成員が孤立し，それらの構成員の多い組織に孤立構成員が多いという知見が得られた．また，低外向性構成員による小集団の規模拡大による可視性を通じて，孤立構成員が生じるかが影響を受けることが明らかになった．, Analyze the mechanisms and factors that cause isolation in organizations, from the perspective of the personalities, based on the objective concept of isolation. For this purpose, we integrated the perspective of network theory with that of isolation research and adopted a multi-agent simulation method as an analysis method. As a result, we found that highly extroverted members were main isolated members, and that highly extroverted organizations had many isolated members. On the other hand, it was found that whether isolated members arise is affected through the visibility of small groups by increasing their size due to low extraversion members. |
| Keywords: | 組織内孤立, 孤独感, ネットワーク, マルチエージェント・シミュレーション, 外向性, Isolation, Loneliness, Network, Multi-agent Simulation, Extraversion |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hmicwp:249&r= |
| By: | Louis Brule Naudet (PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | To speak of leximetry in the context of an impact analysis in contract law would consist in applying econometric principles to legal problems in order to empirically test different provisions and to interpret their understanding by the actors of the economic system. In this context, a general research problem could be formulated: is the reform of contract law a source of clarification or, on the contrary, of incomprehension for legal practitioners with regard to the judicial reading? The aim would be to examine the underlying issues, in particular the understanding of the reform by drafters of contracts, by introducing a quantitative analysis of the number of appeals at first instance on the issues arising from the reform, and its proper application by judges, by reference, for example, to the number of appeals lodged by the parties after referral to the court, as well as to the number of appeals to the Court of Cassation and the number of judgments in favour of, or against, resolution of the dispute. To this end, the present research methodology project aims to introduce to the jurist and the economist, different perspectives of mathematical analysis in Python 3.8, in order to lay the foundations of a new discipline in France, with great potential for the consolidation of legal security and the interpretation in terms of efficiency, of the production of law by the legislator. Table of contents : 1- Fractality of the legal phenomenon and mathematization of practice: an infinitely fragmented and statistically appropriable science ; 1.1- Ambiguity, legal security and statistical modeling: a common paradigm for law and computer science ; 1. 2- From the standardization of a large set of categorical variables to the realization of unbiased indicators of legal effectiveness ; 2- Towards a leximetry methodology for impact analysis of reforms: the example of ordinary least squares regression ; 2.1- Simple linear regression and OLS estimator, analysis of both strengths and limitations ; 2.2- Introduction to multiple regression by gradient descent algorithm . |
| Abstract: | Parler de leximétrie dans le cadre d'une analyse d'impact en droit des contrats consisterait à appliquer des principes économétriques à des problèmes juridiques afin de tester empiriquement différentes dispositions et d'interpréter leur compréhension par les acteurs du système économique. Dans ce contexte, une problématique générale de recherche pourrait être formulée : la réforme du droit des contrats est-elle une source de clarification ou, au contraire, d'incompréhension pour les praticiens du droit au regard de la lecture judiciaire ? Il s'agirait d'examiner les enjeux sous-jacents, notamment la compréhension de la réforme par les rédacteurs de contrats, en mettant en place une analyse quantitative du nombre de recours en première instance sur les questions issues de la réforme, et de sa bonne application par les juges, en se référant par exemple au nombre de recours formés par les parties après saisine de la juridiction, ainsi qu'au nombre de recours en cassation et au nombre d'arrêts favorables ou défavorables à la résolution du litige. A cette fin, le présent projet de méthodologie de recherche vise à présenter au juriste et à l'économiste, différentes perspectives de l'analyse mathématique en Python 3.8 afin de poser les fondamentaux d'une discipline nouvelle en France et porteuse d'un grand potentiel pour la consolidation de la sécurité juridique et l'interpretation en terme d'efficacité, de la production du droit par le législateur. Table des matières : 1- Fractalité du phénomène juridique et mathématisation de la pratique : une science infiniment fragmentée et statistiquement appropriable ; 1.1- Ambiguïté, sécurité juridique et modélisation statistique : un paradigme commun au droit et à l'informatique ; 1. 2- De la standardisation d'un large ensemble de variables catégorielles à la réalisation d'indicateurs non biaisés d'efficacité juridique ; 2- Vers une méthodologie leximétrique pour l'analyse d'impact des réformes : l'exemple de la régression par moindres carrés ordinaires ; 2.1- Régression linéaire simple et estimateur MCO, analyse des forces et des limites ; 2.2- Introduction à la régression multiple par algorithme de descente de gradient. |
| Keywords: | leximetric,contract law,statistics,french law,methodology of research,Leximétrie,Statistiques,Droit des contrats,Méthodologie de la recherche |
| Date: | 2022–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03506558&r= |
| By: | Simona Malovana; Martin Hodula; Josef Bajzik; Zuzana Gric |
| Abstract: | For almost two decades, quantifying the effect of changes in bank capital and capital regulation on lending has been one of the most important research questions. Yet, the empirical literature has remained largely fragmented in terms of the estimated parameters. In this paper, we collect more than 1,600 estimates on the relationship between bank capital and lending and construct 40 variables that reflect the context in which researchers obtain such estimates. After accounting for potential publication bias, the effect of a 1 percentage point (pp) change to the capital (regulatory) ratio on annual credit growth is set at around 0.3 pp, while the effect of changes to capital requirements is about -0.7 pp. Using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging, we expose the additional layers of fragmentation observed in our results. First, we show that the relationship between bank capital and lending changes over time, reflecting the post-crisis period of increasingly demanding bank capital regulation and subdued profitability. Second, we find the reported estimates of elasticities to be significantly affected by the researchers’ choice of empirical approach. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital, bank lending, capital regulation, meta-analysis, publication bias |
| JEL: | C83 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2021/8&r= |
| By: | Reeves, Aaron |
| Abstract: | Do wage-setting institutions, such as collective bargaining, improve health and, if so, is this because they reduce income inequality? Wage-setting institutions are often assumed to improve health because they increase earnings and reduce inequality and yet, while individual-level studies suggest higher earnings improve well being, the direct effects of these institutions on mortality remains unclear. This paper explores both the relationship between wage-setting institutions and mortality rates whether income inequality mediates this relationship. Using 50 years of data from 22 high-income countries (n ~ 825), I find mortality rates are lower in countries with collective bargaining compared to places with little or no wage protection. While wage-setting institutions may reduce economic inequality, these institutions do not appear to improve health because they reduce inequality. Instead, collective bargaining improves health, in part, because they increase average wage growth. The political and economic drivers of inequality may not, then, be correlated with health outcomes, and, as a result, health scholars need to develop more nuanced theories of the political economy of health that are separate from but in dialogue with the political economy of inequality. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining; infant mortality; life expectancy; minimum wage; mortality rates; Wellcome Trust (Grant Number 220206/Z/20/Z) and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Grant Number 1503002). |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113422&r= |
| By: | Bernal, C; Ortiz, M; Prem, M; Vargas, J. F |
| Abstract: | While there is a large literature on how conflict affects entrepreneurship and private investment, much less is known about how the end of a conflict affects businesses and firms’ creation. A priory, the direction of the effect is not obvious, as conflicts bequest poverty traps and inequality that reduce the returns of investment, and the territorial vacuum of power that is inherent to most post-conflict situations may trigger new violent cycles. Studying Colombia’s recent peace agreement and using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document that dynamics of entrepreneurship in traditionally violent areas closely mapped the politics that surrounded the peace agreement. When the agreement was imminent after a 5-decade conflict and violence had plummeted, local investors from all economic sectors established new firms and created more jobs. Instead, when the agreement was rejected by a tiny vote margin in a referendum and the party that promoted this rejection raised to power, the rate of firms’ creation rapidly reversed. |
| Keywords: | Firm entry, Conflict, Peace agreement, Colombia |
| JEL: | D74 D22 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:019938&r= |
| By: | Cutuli, Romina |
| Abstract: | En este artículo propongo una lectura de Au Bonheur des dames de Émile Zola, atenta a las representaciones construidas en torno al progreso y las transformaciones en la vida urbana europea decimonónica. Se desarrollará un estudio de los personajes y los vínculos que crean, entendiendo la tienda, más que como un mero escenario, como una gran protagonista, corazón de la metamorfosis de la vida social y material. Hay exitosos y excluidos, espacio para la "carrera abierta al talento", no solo para el burgués, sino también para los trabajadores de comercio que, a diferencia de los industriales, podían alcanzar el éxito junto al patrón. Finalmente, hago breve referencia a la serie The Paradise, como reescritura en el siglo XXI de la novela de Zola. |
| Keywords: | Representaciones; Burguesía; Trabajo; Consumo; Género; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3604&r= |
| By: | Dorel Mihai Vlad (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University from Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The protection of copyright and related rights is done through a series of administrative, civil, and criminal law means. The appearance of a law, in accordance with the relevant international legislation, allowed entry into legality in this field as well, due to the changes in technology that required this. Also, the regulation of related rights was another step in creating the legislative framework necessary to defend these rights. |
| Keywords: | copyright, system, innovation, technological transfer, competitiveness |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0100&r= |
| By: | Cécile Bourreau-Dubois (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Myriam Doriat-Duban (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bruno Jeandidier (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Claude Ray (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437637&r= |
| By: | Brayan Segura Solano (Universidad de Costa Rica) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo de investigación identifica y documenta choques exógenos de política fiscal en Costa Rica en el período 1991-2018, que eventualmente permitirán estimar con mayor precisión la magnitud de los multiplicadores fiscales según un enfoque narrativo. En total para el período estudiado se identificaron 264 choques de política tributaria entre creación de nuevos impuestos nacionales o municipales, modificación de tributos existentes, cambios en exoneraciones y cambios en la administración tributaria y acuerdos internacionales para intercambio de información tributaria. La naturaleza de estos cambios se documenta en una base de datos inédita que permitirá identificar y analizar casos de estudio para futuros análisis y estimaciones. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fcr:wpaper:202201&r= |
| By: | Paredes Chervellini, Luciano (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and ComexPeru); Ritzen, Jo (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | A simulation shows that increasing teacher salaries is likely to be (very) profitable for Peru. The required investments have in the long run a substantial return in economic growth as higher salaries would lead to higher teacher cognitive skills, which in turn impact student achievement. We suggest that international development banks should develop products for education finance with a long period (60 years or more) before repayments must be made. |
| Keywords: | Education, Return over investment, Economic growth, GDP, PISA, Cognitive Skills, Teachers, Development finance |
| JEL: | C63 H52 I25 O15 O21 O24 N36 |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021029&r= |
| By: | James Peck (The Ohio State University); A. Setayesh (The Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:21-90&r= |
| By: | Douglas David Klein (New Jersey City University, United States); Zion Kang (Student, Jeju International School, Korea) |
| Abstract: | The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), part of the CARES Act passed by the United States Congress in 2020, was instituted as a response to social distancing restrictions during the COVID pandemic that shut down large parts of the American economy. The purpose of PPP was to provide small businesses (and corporations with 500 employees and less) with easy-access loans to help make essential operating payments such as rent, utilities and payroll. If PPP funds were properly used as promised, then the amount borrowed would be forgiven - meaning the loan would be converted to a grant and the borrowed funds would never have to be repaid. The PPP was rolled out in two phases: April 2020 and January 2021. This paper will address if the program worked as envisioned - what was the PPP’s ultimate effectiveness? Did it really save jobs and businesses from failing? This paper will also research the percentage of fraudulent or criminal PPP loans - was there widespread fraud, abuse and misuse of the easy-access funds? |
| Keywords: | Paycheck Protection Program, effectiveness, fraud, abuse, businesses, jobs, loans |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0101&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro; Davide Romelli; Gaia Rubera |
| Abstract: | How does central bank communication affect financial markets? This paper shows that the monetary policy announcements of three major central banks, i.e. the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, trigger significant discussions on monetary policy on Twitter. Using machine learning techniques we identify Twitter messages related to monetary policy around the release of monetary policy decisions and we build a metric of the similarity between the policy announcement and Twitter traffic before and after the announcement. We interpret large changes in the similarity of tweets and announcements as a proxy for monetary policy surprise and show that market volatility spikes after the announcement whenever changes in similarity are high. These findings suggest that social media discussions on central bank communication are aligned with bond and stock market reactions. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, central bank communication, financial markets, social media, Twitter, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G14 G15 G41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21160&r= |
| By: | Roxana Barrantes Cáceres (Departamnento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.); Silvana Manrique Romero (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.) |
| Abstract: | Este estudio analiza la dinámica de usos entre medios tradicionales (de tipo off-line) y medios modernos (de tipo on line) para el caso específico de adultos mayores en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay y Perú. Se basa en el modelo teórico de Becker (1965) y se aplica al caso de adultos mayores para analizar si los medios modernos están desplazando o suplementando a los medios tradicionales. Así, a través de regresiones del modelo Logit bivariado y Logit ordenado, se encuentra que, para la muestra analizada, los medios modernos suplementan a los medios tradicionales, lo cual constituye un motivo adicional para promover el uso de medios modernos entre los adultos mayores. JEL Classification-JE: O33, O12, L96 |
| Keywords: | Medios de comunicación tradicionales, medios de comunicación modernos, tecnologías de información y comunicaciones, adultos mayores, América Latina |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00505&r= |
| By: | Fels, Markus; Suprinoviéc, Olga; Schlömer-Laufen, Nadine; Kay, Rosemarie |
| Abstract: | Wegen fehlender amtlicher Statistiken schätzt das IfM Bonn seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre die Anzahl der Unternehmen in Deutschland, die vor der Übergabe stehen. Die vorliegende Schätzung kommt zum Ergebnis, dass im Zeitraum 2022 bis 2026 etwa 190.000 Unternehmen zur Übergabe anstehen. Die höchste Anzahl an Übergaben findet sich in der Branche der Unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen sowie unter den Unternehmen der Größenklasse 500.000 bis 1 Mio. Euro Jahresumsatz. Überdurchschnittlich viele Übergaben (gemessen am Unternehmensbestand) werden für Bremen und Niedersachsen vorausberechnet. Von der Corona-Pandemie erwarten wir nach derzeitigem Stand keine starken Auswirkungen auf die Zahl der Unternehmensnachfolgen. Von besonderer Bedeutung für das Nachfolgegeschehen ist hingegen der demografische Wandel. |
| Keywords: | Unternehmensübertragungen,Familienunternehmen,Deutschland,Business transfers,family businesses,Germany |
| JEL: | L19 M19 M29 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmduf:27&r= |
| By: | Carolina Bernal; Mónica Ortiz; Mounu Prem; Juan F. Vargas |
| Abstract: | While there is a large literature on how conflict affects entrepreneurship and private investment, much less is known about how the end of a conflict affects businesses and firms’ creation. A priory, the direction of the effect is not obvious, as conflicts bequest poverty traps and inequality that reduce the returns of investment, and the territorial vacuum of power that is inherent to most post-conflict situations may trigger new violent cycles. Studying Colombia’s recent peace agreement and using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document that dynamics of entrepreneurship in traditionally violent areas closely mapped the politics that surrounded the peace agreement. When the agreement was imminent after a 5-decade conflict and violence had plummeted, local investors from all economic sectors established new firms and created more jobs. Instead, when the agreement was rejected by a tiny vote margin in a referendum and the party that promoted this rejection raised to power, the rate of firms’ creation rapidly reversed. |
| Keywords: | Firm entry, Conflict, Peace agreement, Colombia |
| JEL: | D74 D22 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:019939&r= |
| By: | Shenoy, Ajay; Sharma, Bhavyaa; Xu, Guanghong; Kapoor, Rolly; Rho, Haedong Aiden; Sangha, Kinpritma |
| Abstract: | We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Coronavirus, Rainfall, Social distancing, Prevention, coronavirus, social distancing, rainfall, Health Policy & Services, Public Health and Health Services, Applied Economics, Econometrics |
| Date: | 2021–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt3jr4k0cm&r= |
| By: | Helen Miller (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Thomas Pope (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We use newly linked tax records to show that the large responses of UK company owner-managers to personal taxes are due to intertemporal income shifting and not to reductions in real business activity. Around half of this shifting is short-term and helps prevent volatile incomes being taxed more heavily under progressive personal taxes. The remainder re?ects systemic pro?t retention over long periods to take advantage of lower tax rates, including preferential treatment of capital gains. We ?nd no evidence that this tax-induced retention increases business investment. It does, however, substantially reduce the tax revenue raised from high income business owners. |
| Date: | 2021–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/49&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | La pandémie de Covid-19 a bouleversé non seulement l'économie de la plupart des pays, mais aussi le domaine scientifique médical. Les opinions publiques se sont immiscées dans les choix des essais thérapeutiques comme le montrent les controverses autour des protocoles utilisant l'hydroxychloroquine. Le choix du public pour ces traitements est expliqué comme l'application d'un "pari de Pascal". Cet article analyse la formation du système de croyance des individus en appliquant la théorie de l'ambiguïté et la théorie de l'entropie d'information. Il montre que les choix du public sont le fruit de stratégies communication choisies par les promoteurs de tel ou tel traitement. |
| Keywords: | Incertitude Knightienne,Médicament,Ambiguïté |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502610&r= |
| By: | Czech, Robert (Bank of England); Huang, Shiyang (University of Hong Kong); Lou, Dong (London School of Economics); Wang, Tianyu (Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | We study investor trading behaviour and yield patterns in the UK government bond market during the recent Covid crisis. We show that the yield spike in mid-March 2020 was accompanied by heavy selling of gilts by UK-based insurance companies and pension funds (ICPFs), which we argue was an indirect result of the US dollar’s global prominence. Non-US institutions invest a large portion of their capital in dollar assets and hedge their dollar exposures by selling dollars forward through FX derivatives. In crisis periods, dollars appreciate against other currencies. To meet margin calls on these short-dollar FX positions, non-US institutions sell their domestic safe assets, thereby contributing to the yield spikes in domestic markets. |
| Keywords: | Covid crisis; gilt yields; variation margin; FX derivatives; global reserve currency; currency hedging |
| JEL: | F31 G11 G12 G15 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2021–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0953&r= |
| By: | Signe A. Abrahamsen (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen); Julie Riise (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence that preventive health care services delivered at schools and provided at a relatively low cost have positive and lasting impacts. We use variation from a 1999-reform in Norway that induced substantial differences in the avail-ability of health professionals across municipalities and cohorts. In municipalities with one fewer school nurse per 1,000 school-age children before the reform there was an increase in the availability of nurses of 35% from the pre- to the post-reform period, attributed to the policy change. The reform reduced teenage pregnancies and increased college attendance for girls. It also reduced the take-up of welfare benefits by ages 26 and 30 and increased the planned use of primary and specialist health care services at ages 25-35, without impacts on emergency room admissions. The reform also improved the health of newborns of affected new mothers and reduced the likelihood of miscarriages. |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/20&r= |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente (Coordinador); Benito Arruñada; Miguel Ángel García Díaz; Marcel Jansen; Diego Rodríguez; Alfonso R. Sánchez |
| Abstract: | Este documento es parte de una serie de boletines de seguimiento de la crisis del Covid. En él se recopila una serie de indicadores de los efectos de la pandemia sobre la actividad económica y las cuentas públicas y se analizan y valoran las principales medidas económicas que se han tomado en relación con ella en los últimos tres meses, con especial atención al seguimiento de las reformas e inversiones recogidas en el Plan de Recuperación. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2022-02&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)); Ljunge, Martin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Ideological spillovers refer to the modification of an individual’s core beliefs after learning about other people's beliefs. We study one specific international ideological spillover, namely, the effect of the unexpected election of a United States (US) president (Donald Trump on the 9th of November 2016), who openly questioned the so-called ‘core liberal consensuses, on European’s core political beliefs. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) around the election event, we show that the Trump presidential election (TPE) gave rise to a ‘backlash effect’. That is, it steered core European beliefs in two specific domains, making Europeans more favourable to globalisation and international mobility (about 10% change in the overall Likert scale range of the statement that immigrants contribute to a country). Contrasting with the hypotheses of 'belief contagion’, we do not find evidence that TPE steered illiberal beliefs. Furthermore, TPE improved (reduced) the view Europeans have of their own country (the United States). |
| Keywords: | Political shocks; Belief formation; Information spillovers; Backlash effect; Pluralistic ignorance; Trump presidential election; Political beliefs; The social formation of beliefs |
| JEL: | D72 F50 P16 Z10 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1423&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Starting from the standard analysis of accident theory, this paper shows that determining the first-best level of care of ultra-hazardous activities also involves determining the best industrial structure. The analysis assesses the impact of the civil nuclear liability on the organization of given electro-nuclear parks. The object is to know whether these liability rules induce horizontally concentrating the management of nuclear industry or not. In a model extended from two to n plants, we show that the institutional conditions (cap on the operator's liability and the insurance compensation) play a fundamental role in the inducement to centralize or not this management. Hence, a priori, no organization framework is more efficient than the other one. |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502601&r= |
| By: | Lukas Boer; Andrea Pescatori; Martin Stuermer |
| Abstract: | The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Conditional forecasts, structural vector autoregression, structural scenario analysis, energy transition, metals, fossil fuels, prices, climate change |
| JEL: | C32 C53 Q3 Q4 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1976&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Costa Ribeiro (Cedeplar/UFMG); Jorge Nogueira de Paiva Britto (Universidade Federal Fluminense); Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | The unit of analysis of this paper is an international knowledge link (IKL), a knowledge flow that leaves a trace and connects two nodes – different institutions, firms and universities, in different countries. We present and analyze 17,240,834 international knowledge links (data from 2017). These international knowledge links form three basic networks. These three international layers overlap and interweave, forming a network of networks. The contribution of this paper is the identification and preliminary analysis of this overlapping and intertwinement. These networks are robust and their properties suggest a hierarchical structure of a multilayer network that is asymmetric. These networks are interpreted as new layers of innovation systems, with implications for the dynamic of innovation – a reorganization of different levels of innovation systems, now a more complicated structure with interaction between local, sectoral and national levels, as well as these overlapping international networks. |
| Keywords: | International Knowledge flows; Innovation Systems; Networks of networks |
| JEL: | O32 O34 O39 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td640&r= |
| By: | Traoré, Fousseini; Diop, Insa |
| Abstract: | Since the seminal paper by Granger and Newbold (1974) on spurious regressions, applied econometricians have become aware of the consequences of unit roots in empirical analysis with time series data. Yet one can still find many published papers with unit root tests implemented in an inappropriate way. The objective of this Technical Note is to highlight the common pitfalls and best practices when testing for unit roots. In addition to the theoretical discussion, we provide examples using price data from Kenya, Mali, Togo, and South Africa to illustrate the procedures we think are worth following. |
| Keywords: | KENYA; MALI; TOGO; SOUTH AFRICA; AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; CENTRAL AFRICA; EAST AFRICA; NORTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; WEST AFRICA; econometrics; parity; approaches; best practices; macroeconomics; tests; models; unit root; stationary tests |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:agrotn:tn-23&r= |
| By: | Marc Deschamps (CRESE - Centre de REcherches sur les Stratégies Economiques (EA 3190) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Bruno Jeandidier (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Mansuy (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | While there is a fairly extensive literature on the relationship between weather and productivity, little research has focused on the impact of weather on judicial activity. The findings from the few investigations conducted arrive at different conclusions depending on the country. We contribute to this area of research by conducting the first analysis using French data. We propose an empirical analysis of the impact of outdoor temperature and rainfall levels on court decisions made in French courts of appeal during divorce proceedings, based on a sample of approximately 4,000 court decisions correlated with daily and geo-localized meteorological data. The analysis focuses on decisions regarding the amount of child support to be paid. We show that, all other things being equal, when it is very hot at night preceding the judgment, the panels of judges tend to set lower amounts of child support. |
| Keywords: | Appeal judge's decisions,Weather,Child support,Divorce,France,Law and economics |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437628&r= |
| By: | Maya El Hourani (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Gerard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Les opinions exprimées dans la série des Documents de travail GREDEG sont celles des auteurs et ne reflèlent pas nécessairement celles de l'institution. Les documents n'ont pas été soumis à un rapport formel et sont donc inclus dans cette série pour obtenir des commentaires et encourager la discussion. Les droits sur les documents appartiennent aux auteurs. The views expressed in the GREDEG Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the institution. The Working Papers have not undergone formal review and approval. Such papers are included in this series to elicit feedback and to encourage debate. Copyright belongs to the author(s). |
| Keywords: | Bank capital,institutional quality,credit supply,and MENA region |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502606&r= |
| By: | Mei-Ling Cai; Zhang-HangJian Chen; Sai-Ping Li; Xiong Xiong; Wei Zhang; Ming-Yuan Yang; Fei Ren |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial stage and becomes a power law decay at later times by using high frequency minute data. Empirical study of the evolutionary behaviors of volatility after endogenous and exogenous events further demonstrates the descriptive power of our new model. To further explore the underlying mechanisms of volatility evolution, we introduce the sequential arrival of information hypothesis (SAIH) and the mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH) to test the two-stage assumption, and find that investors transform from the uninformed state to the informed state in the first stage and informed investors subsequently dominate in the second stage. The testing results offer a supporting explanation for the validity of our new model and the fitted values of relevant parameters. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.03213&r= |
| By: | Oster, Johanna |
| JEL: | M10 M14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hswwdp:012022&r= |
| By: | Sylvie Blasco (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Eva Moreno Galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Jeremy Tanguy (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates if same-sex marriage (SSM) laws, approved in several European Union countries over the past decades, have contributed to favor gay-friendly opinions among people depending on their social interactions. We propose a dyadic model in which individuals learn about the social norm conveyed by a law through strong and weak ties. We show that the relative importance of these social ties in shaping individuals' opinions depends on the alignment between the law and the local social norm. Using the 2002–2016 European Social Surveys, we test the theoretical predictions with a pseudo-panel dynamic difference-in-difference setting relying on the progressive adoption of SSM in European countries. We show that strong ties induce a lower increase in gay-friendly opinions following the adoption of SSM when the law is aligned with the local social norm. When the law clashes with this norm, strong ties induce a larger increase. |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03516198&r= |
| By: | Noshin Khan (Teaching Table, Pakistan); Umrat Khan (Kiran Foundation, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes findings from a report, written by the authors, titled the Professional Development of Early Childhood Education (ECE) in Balochistan. The data shows a change in knowledge, skills, and attitude of 300 early childhood educators’ on inducting a play-based teaching and learning approach in their classrooms. The sample consisted of urban and rural educators working with children aged 4 to 7 years in public sector schools, in the province of Balochistan, Pakistan. A mixed-methods research approach was employed. A quantitative pre-test was conducted to assess the knowledge, skills, and attitude towards a play-based approach in the early years prior to a 40-hour training. The training used a “Theory to Practice Approach†and made the educators play and practice activities that children would do and then reflect on how they felt and what they learned. This method was believed to be effective as the educators were able to experience what they learned theoretically. After the training, a quantitative post-test was conducted to evaluate the impact of the training. Reflective accounts and group interviews were also conducted to get a sense of how the educators would take their knowledge to the classrooms. The post-test results were very encouraging showing a positive change in all areas. The interviews reflected the enthusiasm of educators to take their new learning to the classrooms. |
| Keywords: | education, professional development, early childhood education, developing country, pedagogy, play-based learning, theory to practice |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0056&r= |
| By: | Jörn C. Richstein; Frederik Lettow; Karsten Neuhoff |
| Abstract: | Die steile Entwicklung der Gaspreise hat die Strompreise im vergangenen Jahr in bislang ungeahnte Höhen klettern lassen. Satte Zusatzgewinne gemacht haben die Betreiber von Anlagen für erneuerbare Energien – und zwar indirekt auf Kosten der VerbraucherInnen, die kräftig draufzahlen mussten. Grund dafür ist die geltende Politik der gleitenden Marktprämie, mit der den Betreibern fast aller geförderter Windanlagen und von rund einem Drittel der Solaranlagen eine Mindestvergütung für den verkauften Strom zusteht. In Zeiten von niedrigen Strompreisen werden die Erneuerbare-Energien-Anlagen zusätzlich gefördert: Im Falle von hohen Strompreisen wie jetzt winken zugleich unverhoffte Gewinne, die die Betreiber einstreichen dürfen. Die KonsumentInnen haben das Nachsehen: Obwohl sie bei niedrigen Strompreisen regenerative Energien über die EEG-Umlage über Jahre hinweg gefördert haben, sind sie im Gegenzug nicht gegen hohe Strompreise abgesichert. Hätte die Bundesregierung in der Vergangenheit bereits auf Differenzverträge (Contracts-for-Difference, CfDs) statt auf die gleitende Marktprämie für Wind an Land und Photovoltaik gesetzt, hätten auch die StromkundInnen davon profitiert: Berechnungen des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) zeigen, dass die Stromkosten im vergangenen Jahr knapp 1,7 Milliarden Euro geringer gewesen wären. Allein im Dezember hätte die Ersparnis bei etwa 750 Millionen Euro gelegen. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:77de&r= |
| By: | Philippe Lépinard (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel); Bertrand Pinon; Fadela Pinon |
| Abstract: | Notre projet pédagogique et de recherche consiste en l'implémentation d'un dispositif de coaching réciproque (peer coaching) durant l'année universitaire 2021-2022 au sein d'un parcours universitaire regroupant 121 étudiants (97 étudiants de Licence 1/2/3 et 24 apprentis de Master 1/2). Les objectifs de ce dispositif sont de développer, chez les étudiants, une posture de « manager coach » grâce à l'acquisition et la mobilisation de compétences de coaching avec, comme thématique, le leadership. Pour ce faire, plusieurs outils complémentaires sont mis en œuvre comme le modèle GROW de Whitmore (2012) et la pyramide du leadership de Collins (2001). |
| Keywords: | peer coaching,coaching réciproque,leadership,enseignement supérieur |
| Date: | 2022–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03505605&r= |
| By: | Aurelie Dariel; Nikos Nikiforakis; Jan Stoop (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | Evidence from behavioral experiments with volunteer samples suggests that there exists a substantial gap in the willingness of men and women to compete. We ask whether a similar gap can be found in a population of economics majors – a population of interest as questions loom regarding the reasons for the underrepresentation of women in economics. We find a substantial gender gap in competitiveness – as well as in risk attitudes – among economics majors. We also find that self-selection into the lab causes us to overestimate this gap among volunteers by a factor of 2 to 3 depending on the econometric model. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20220074&r= |
| By: | Brian Hill (HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03503986&r= |
| By: | Philippe Lépinard (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Notre communication présente les dernières avancées du sous-projet Wargames du projet pédagogique et de recherche en ludopédagogie EdUTeam. En effet, après trois années d'implémentation de wargames sur table dans des enseignements de management, nous avons pu finaliser nos objectifs scientifiques initiaux en mesurant le niveau 2 du modèle d'évaluation des formations de Kirkpatrick (2016) : l'apprentissage. Ce faisant, les deux premiers niveaux ont été validés et permettent dorénavant d'ouvrir des perspectives de recherche plus poussées sur l'usage des wargames mais également une diffusion du dispositif pédagogique associé intégrant de réelles garanties d'apprentissage. |
| Date: | 2022–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03505607&r= |
| By: | Kenji Fujiwara (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Comparison among Cournot, Bertrand and (Chamberlin) monopolistic competition receives recent attention in industrial organization, but not in New Economic Geography (NEG). To fulfill this gap, we examine how the difference in market structures affects industry location in a footloose capital (FC) model of NEG. We find that the home market effect is strongest in Cournot competition, second strongest in Bertrand competition, and weakest in monopolistic competition. |
| Keywords: | Cournot competition, Bertrand competition, monopolistic competition, Home market effect |
| JEL: | D43 F12 F21 L13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:235&r= |
| By: | Pascal Gauthier; Timothy J. Kehoe; Erwan Quintin |
| Abstract: | We develop a restart algorithm based on Scarf’s (1973) algorithm for computing approximate Brouwer fixed points. We use the algorithm to compute all of the equilibria of a general equilibrium pure-exchange model with four consumers, four goods, and 15 equilibria. The mathematical result that motivates the algorithm is a fixed-point index theorem that provides a sufficient condition for uniqueness of equilibrium and a necessary condition for multiplicity of equilibria. Examining the structure of the model with 15 equilibria provides us with a method for constructing higher dimensional models with even more equilibria. For example, using our method, we can construct a pure-exchange economy with eight consumers and eight goods that has (at least) 255 equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Uniqueness of equilibrium; Multiplicity of equilibrium; Computation of equilibrium |
| JEL: | C63 D51 C62 C60 |
| Date: | 2021–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93490&r= |
| By: | Manuel Arellano (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI)); Stéphane Bonhomme (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Chicago); Micole De Vera (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Laura Hospido (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Siqi Wei (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: more than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2021–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/37&r= |
| By: | Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Oguzhan Cepni (Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16A, Frederiksberg DK-2000, Denmark; Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Haci Bayram Mah. Istiklal Cad. No:10 06050, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Recent theoretical developments tend to suggest that rare disaster risks enhance the persistence of uncertainty. Given this, we analyse the impact of climate risks (temperature growth or its volatility), as proxies for such unusual events, on the persistence of economic and policy-related uncertainty of the 50 US states in a panel data set-up, over the monthly period of 1984:03 to 2019:12. Using impulse response functions (IRFs) from a regime-based local projections (LPs) model, we show that the impact of an uncertainty shock on uncertainty itself is not only bigger in magnitude when the economy is in the upper-regime of temperature growth or its volatility, but is also, in line with theory, is more persistent. Our results have important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Climate Risks, US States, Nonlinear Local Projections, Impulse Response Functions |
| JEL: | C23 D80 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202208&r= |
| By: | José E. Boscá; José Cano; Javier Ferri |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo evaluamos la situación actual de la epidemia en España, en el contexto de su evolución en el último año. En primer lugar, evaluamos la tendencia en la presión hospitalaria y en las unidades de cuidados intensivos. Segundo, ofrecemos una imagen de los contagios corregidos de acuerdo a su capacidad de generar enfermedad grave y presión hospitalaria. Tercero, estimamos la presión de la última ola sobre la asitencia primaria en términos del incremento en el personal sanitario requerido para mantener constante al nivel pre-pandemia el volumen de trabajo por empleado. En cuarto lugar, estimamos el efecto de la vacunación en la reducción de los contagios, las hospitalizaciones, los ingresos en UCIs y las defunciones. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Glewwe, Paul; Lee, Jongwook; Vu, Khoa |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how Vietnam's Escuela Nueva (VNEN) program, an educational reform for primary schools supported by the World Bank, affected the cognitive (mathematics and Vietnamese) and non-cognitive (socioemotional) skills of students in that country. We use propensity score matching to estimate both short-term (1-3 years) and long-term (5-7 years) average treatment effects on the treated (ATT). We find that the impacts of VNEN on students' cognitive skills are relatively small in the short-term, and that they are larger for boys, ethnic minorities, and students in Northern Vietnam. The VNEN program modestly increased primary school students' non-cognitive skills in the short-term; these impacts on non-cognitive skills are sizable and significant for ethnic minority students, although there seems to be little gender difference. The long-term impacts are less precisely estimated, but they appear to fade away, showing little or no impact of the VNEN program on cognitive skills. There is little variation of long-term impacts by gender or geographical region, although the imprecision of the estimates for ethnic minority students does not allow us to rule out large long-term impacts on cognitive skills for those students. The program's impacts on non-cognitive skills also seem to have dissipated in the long-term. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1017&r= |
| By: | D'Onofrio, Paula; Gorosito, Silvina Marcela; Iacono, Cristian; Rodríguez, Julieta A.; Heit, Malena |
| Abstract: | El presente trabajo se enmarca en el proyecto de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata "Responsabilidad Social. Una propuesta desde la Contabilidad Social y Ambiental para empresas clave de la región", siendo el primero acreditado en materia contable. El objetivo principal del proyecto ha sido definido de la siguiente manera: "Contribuir con las acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresaria realizadas en el ámbito del Partido de General Pueyrredon desde la perspectiva de sus grupos de interés". Con este fin, se contactó a la asociación empresaria "FortaleceRSE", la cual es la principal Cámara de Empresas de Mar del Plata dedicada al fomento del desarrollo sostenible de la región por medio de la difusión e implementación de acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresaria, quien ha operado como nexo con los líderes de las empresas entrevistadas. En esta etapa presentamos el análisis inicial del relevamiento de acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresaria (RSE) de las organizaciones objeto de estudio, que se desprende de las entrevistas virtuales mediante plataformas y presenciales realizadas hasta el momento. En esta primera etapa de investigación, surgen las siguientes preguntas: - ¿Las empresas brindan información sobre las acciones de RSE que llevan adelante? Si brindan información, ¿de qué forma lo hacen y para que usuarios/destinatarios? Si no lo hacen, ¿cuáles son los motivos? - ¿Las empresas se vinculan entre ellas para desarrollar acciones de RSE? ¿De qué forma lo hacen? ¿Se vinculan con otras organizaciones? Entre los resultados hallados, se puede destacar que algunas empresas comunican a sus grupos de interés las acciones realizadas a través de informes con una periodicidad anual. Asimismo, se relevaron empresas que no realizan ningún tipo de reporte de sus acciones de RSE. De las entidades entrevistadas a la fecha, no se identificó ninguna que confeccione Balance Social en los téminos de la Resolución Técnica 36 de la FACPCE. Para desarrollar acciones de RSE, las empresas se vinculan con ONG, organismos estatales y otras empresas -algunas asociadas a FortaleceRSE y otras no-. |
| Keywords: | Responsabilidad Social; Empresas; Contabilidad Social; |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3592&r= |
| By: | Daniel Goller; Andrea Diem; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | Higher education brings together students from diverse educational backgrounds, including students, who after dropping out of a first course of study, transferred to an academically less demanding institution. While peers are important contributors to student success, the influence of those dropouts with a knowledge advantage on first-time students is largely unexplored. Using an administrative data set covering every individual in the Swiss higher education system, we study the impact of the presence of academically better prepared students on the study success of first-time students. Our identification strategy relies on conditional idiosyncratic variations in the proportion of returning dropouts in university of applied sciences cohorts. We find negative effects of university dropouts who re-enroll in the same subject on the success of first-time students. In contrast, dropouts who change subjects are positively associated to the success of their new peers. Using causal machine learning methods, we find that the effects (a) are non-linear and (b) vary for different proportions of dropouts in university of applied sciences cohorts. |
| Keywords: | University dropouts, peer effects, better prepared students, causal machine learning |
| JEL: | A23 C14 I23 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0190&r= |
| By: | Matteo Bonato (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa; IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France); Oguzhan Cepni (Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16A, Frederiksberg DK-2000, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We find that climate-related risks forecast the intraday-data-based realized volatility of exchange-rate returns of eight major fossil fuel-exporters (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, and South Africa). We study a wide array of metrics capturing risks associated with climate change, derived from data directly on variables such as, for example, abnormal patterns of temperature. We control for various other moments (realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized good and variance, upside and downside tail risk, and jumps) and estimate our forecasting models using random forests, a machine-learning technique tailored to analyze models with many predictors. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risks, Commodity Currencies, Realized Variance, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C53 F31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202210&r= |
| By: | Gong, Doudou (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Quantitative Economics); Dietzenbacher, Bas (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, QE Math. Economics & Game Theory); Peters, Hans (QE Math. Economics & Game Theory, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies Davis-Maschler reduced games of two-bound core games and shows that all these reduced games with respect to core elements are two-bound core games with the same pair of bounds. Based on associated reduced game properties, we axiomatically characterize the core, the nucleolus, and the egalitarian core for two-bound core games. Moreover, we show that the egalitarian core for two-bound core games is single-valued and we provide an explicit expression. |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2022001&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article reconsiders the standard unilateral accident model in a probabilistic universe (excluding radical uncertainty). Unlike the latter, the agents (injurer and victim) form different estimates probability of accident distribution and damage assessment. Consequently, the social cost of an accident varies according to the civil liability type (while invariant in the standard model). The correspondence between the strict liability regime and the negligence rule no longer exists except in the case where the polluter estimates the costs of the damage at a higher level than that of the victim |
| Abstract: | Cet article reconsidère le modèle d'accident unilatéral standard en univers probabiliste (hors incertitude radicale). Contrairement à ce dernier, les agents (porteur de préjudice et victime) forment des estimations différentes sur la distribution de probabilité d'accident et l'évaluation des dommages. En conséquence, le coût social d'un accident varie suivant le type de responsabilité civile (invariable dans le modèle standard). La correspondance entre les régimes de la responsabilité sans faute et la règle de la négligence n'existe plus sauf dans l'hypothèse où le pollueur estime les coûts des dommages à un niveau supérieur à celui de la victime. |
| Keywords: | Strit Liability,Negligence Rule,Unilateral Accident Model |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502614&r= |
| By: | Hazarika, Bhabesh (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Nayak, Dinesh Kumar (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, public spending both at the Union and Subnational Governments in India has been increased by manifold. Often the taxpayers systematically misperceive their tax burden as well as benefits received from the publicly provided public goods and services. This leads to fiscal illusion, i.e., they demand more public goods than they would if they had complete information resulting in a higher public spending than the desired level. The present paper analyses the subnational finances in India in search of evidence of fiscal illusion and flypaper effects as well as the validity of Wagner's law in explaining the increased public spending over the decades. Panel data from 1980-81 to 2019-20 for 20 subnational governments of India were analysed using second-generation panel unit root, and cointegration approaches accounting for the cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results of the PMG estimation provide evidence for the existence of fiscal illusion induced by intergovernmental transfers and fiscal deficit and a flypaper effect. While the validity of Wagner's law becomes weak when controlled for intergovernmental transfers and fiscal deficit, the degree of publicness of public spending is found to be low at the subnational level in the country. The increased reliance on the transfers has become a norm for many states, especially the north-eastern and hilly states having implications for the own tax collection at the subnational level, and as a result, the fiscal gap has become larger and larger. |
| Keywords: | Public Spending ; Fiscal Illusion ; Flypaper Effects ; Wagner's Law ; Second-generation Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Approach |
| JEL: | C23 H40 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/367&r= |
| By: | Sugata Bag (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Anirban Kar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Female labour force participation in India has stagnated despite gains in other aspects. Do Indian women prefer to stay out of labour market voluntarily or do social norms prevent their participation? We identify parental involvement in partner choice during marriage as an important bottleneck. We first find that women who had some degree of involvement in partner choice enjoy significantly more autonomy in post-marriage labour market choices than those whose marriages were arranged solely by parents. We use a marriage tradition instrument to estimate causal effects. Since autonomy and participation affect each other, next, we estimate simultaneous equations for autonomy and participation for only rural women. We use parental involvement in marriage and district-level share of drought-affected villages as two exogenous variables - the former for autonomy and the latter for participation. We find that autonomy significantly increases participation. We further explain the mechanism through a theoretical model. To distinguish between autonomy and participation; we introduce a new household delegation game. The main message of the theoretical model is that parental involvement in partner choice reduces women’s ability to screen partners leading to relatively more mismatches, i.e., women who are inclined to work mismatched with men who prefer otherwise. Key Words: Parental involvement, Partner selection, Female autonomy, Female labour market participation, Delegation game JEL Codes: J12, J16, D82 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:317&r= |
| By: | Colin Weiss |
| Abstract: | Foreign investors hold a sizable amount of U.S. Treasury securities—$7.5 trillion or about 35 percent of the total outstanding—so net purchases by foreign investors receive significant attention from a variety of sources, including academic researchers, finance professionals, and journalists. During the pandemic, foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities has received scrutiny for a variety of reasons, including the contribution of foreign investors to the massive selloff in March 2020 (Duffie, 2020; Vissing-Jorgensen, forthcoming) and the ability of foreign investors to absorb additional Treasury securities as the Federal Reserve prepares to taper its asset purchases (Duguid and Rennison, 2021). |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-01-28-1&r= |
| By: | Yommi, Alejandra; Berges, Miriam; Lacaze, María Victoria; Lupín, Beatriz; Ceroli, Paola |
| Abstract: | Argentina cuenta con alrededor de 1000 ha implantadas de kiwi. La provincia de Buenos Aires, sobre todo el sudeste (SEB), concentra la producción nacional. El SEB cuenta con alrededor de 600 ha implantadas, de las cuales el 80% se encuentran en el Partido de General Pueyrredon. La zona presenta un clima favorable, con suelos con características muy adecuadas para lograr altas producciones y frutos de excelente calidad. |
| Keywords: | Producción; Comercio; Atributos de Calidad; Kiwi; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3587&r= |
| By: | Kuha, Jouni; Bukodi, Erzsébet; Goldthorpe, John H. |
| Abstract: | We analyse levels and trends of intergenerational social class mobility among three post-war birth cohorts in Britain, and examine how much of the observed mobility or immobility in them could be accounted for by existing differences in educational attainment between people from different class backgrounds. We propose for this purpose a method which quantifies associations between categorical variables when we compare groups which differ only in the distribution of a mediating variable such as education. This is analogous to estimation of indirect effects in causal mediation analysis, but is here developed to define and estimate population associations of variables. We propose estimators for these associations, which depend only on fitted values from models for the mediator and outcome variables, and variance estimators for them. The analysis shows that the part that differences in education play in intergenerational class mobility is by no means so dominant as has been supposed, and that while it varies with gender and with particular mobility transitions, it shows no tendency to change over time. |
| Keywords: | categorical data analysis; finite-population estimation; multinomial logistic models; path analysis; ES/I038187/1 |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110157&r= |
| By: | Georgeta Stoica-Marcu (Ovidius University from Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In Romania, social assistance is the totality of measures taken by the state, the Church and other non-governmental organizations to support people in special situations of difficulty due to poor mental or physical conditions such as chronic diseases, accidents, natural disasters, age and others, in order to overcome the state of difficulty. Social assistance in the form of social policies and the implementation of these actions in the territory is done by applying legislative regulations, which focus on people in difficulty. The social assistant worker must know the main forms of the social assistance system, is the most important normative acts of the moment and the institutions that deal with their provision. According to Father Stăniloae “deeds are the manifestations of the loving relationship between person and person†(Stăniloaie 2003, 244). The importance of good works is based on the conception of God and man as personal realities. |
| Keywords: | Romania, social assistance, social assistant worker |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0103&r= |
| By: | Reinke, Rouven |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag nimmt eine feld-und kapitaltheoretische Analyse der Volkswirtschaftslehre in Deutschland vor. Die Machtstrukturen auf dem Feld der ökonomischen Disziplin werden dabei anhand der(ungleichen) Verteilung des ökonomischen, sozialen und symbolischen Kapitals skizziert. Auf Grundlage einer wissenschaftlichen Indikatorenkonstruktion werden die einzelnen Kapitalsorten operationalisiert. Dabei zeigen sich deutliche Monopolisierungstendenzen zugunsten des Mainstream-Paradigmas sowie eine erhebliche Konzentration von Machtressourcen auf die großen Universitätsstandorte. Verbunden sind diese Ausprägungen mit einem wachsenden Bedeutungsgewinn von Colander's Edge, einer nahezu abgeschlossenen Marginalisierung der Heterodoxie und einem deutlichen Zentrum-Peripherie-Gefälle. Auf dem Feld der Volkswirtschaftslehre ist demzufolge eine sozialstrukturelle Horizontalisierung und Elitisierung der Universitätsstandorte und ein epistemischer Paradigmenmonismus zu beobachten. |
| Keywords: | Paradigmenmonismus,Kapitaltheorie,Social Studies of Economics,Wissenschaftssoziologie |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B4 B5 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:91&r= |
| By: | Florent Venayre (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française) |
| Abstract: | L'Autorité polynésienne de la concurrence a rendu le 15 novembre 2021 une décision (n° 2021-DREC-01) relative au respect des engagements pris dans la décision n° 2016-CC-04 du 5 décembre 2016 relative à la prise de contrôle exclusif du groupe Tahiti Nui Travel par le groupe Grey. |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03502179&r= |
| By: | Frédéric Boissay (Unknown); Fabrice Collard (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jordi Galí (Unknown); Cristina Manea (Unknown) |
| Abstract: | We study whether a central bank should deviate from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. We tackle this question within a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with capital accumulation and microfounded endogenous financial crises. We compare several interest rate rules, under which the central bank responds more or less forcefully to inflation and aggregate output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability of a crisis both in the short run (through aggregate demand) and in the medium run (through savings and capital accumulation). Second, a central bank can both reduce the probability of a crisis and increase welfare by departing from strict inflation targeting and responding systematically to fluctuations in output. Third, financial crises may occur after a long period of unexpectedly loose monetary policy as the central bank abruptly reverses course. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis,Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03509283&r= |
| By: | Santarelli, Enrico (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, and Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Staccioli, Jacopo (Department of Economic Policy, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, and Institute of Economics, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies); Vivarelli, Marco (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Department of Economic Policy, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, and Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | Using the entire population of USPTO patent applications published between 2002 and 2019, and leveraging on both patent classification and semantic analysis, this paper aims to map the current knowledge base centred on robotics and AI technologies. These technologies are investigated both as a whole and distinguishing core and related innovations, along a 4-level core-periphery architecture. Merging patent applications with the Orbis IP firm-level database allows us to put forward a twofold analysis based on industry of activity and geographic location. In a nutshell, results show that: (i) rather than representing a technological revolution, the new knowledge base is strictly linked to the previous technological paradigm; (ii) the new knowledge base is characterised by a considerable – but not impressively widespread – degree of pervasiveness; (iii) robotics and AI are strictly related, converging (particularly among the related technologies and in more recent times) and jointly shaping a new knowledge base that should be considered as a whole, rather than consisting of two separate GPTs; (iv) the US technological leadership turns out to be confirmed (although declining in relative terms in favour of Asian countries such as South Korea, China and, more recently, India). |
| Keywords: | Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, General Purpose Technology, Technological Paradigm, Industry |
| JEL: | O25 O31 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2022–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022003&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | We use new, high-quality UK panel data to document the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic at an individual level, from April 2020 to March 2021. We focus on where and to what extent pre-existing labour market and financial inequalities have been exacerbated. Our story is more nuanced than earlier papers focusing on the start of the pandemic. To March 2021 some inequalities worsened, but others did not, and in some cases, a widening of labour market inequalities in the first wave of the pandemic was subsequently reversed. We find no evidence of divergence in employment outcomes by gender. On the other hand, the first wave of the pandemic impacted the employment of ethnic minorities, the young, and those with less formal education, but these differential impacts had largely abated by March 2021. By various measures, financial position and living standards strengthened, not only for the affluent, but also for middle deciles of the long-run income distribution, although those at the very bottom of the income distribution were more likely to report a decline in net wealth over the course of the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2021–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/39&r= |
| By: | Tomaso Duso; Mattia Nardotto; Alexander Schiersch |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of broadband availability on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) using German firm-level data between 2010 and 2015. We adopt a control function approach to causally identify and separately estimate productivity for 46 two-digit manufacturing and service sectors. Over the sample period, broadband availability, measured by 16 Mbps transmission rates, more than doubled in German municipalities. While this increased broadband availability has almost no effect on firms’ productivity in manufacturing, it significantly increases TFP in most service sectors. Yet, the size of the effect is heterogenous across industries. |
| Keywords: | broadband internet, productivity, firm-level data |
| JEL: | D24 D22 J24 O14 O22 O33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1988&r= |
| By: | Jan Stede; Marc Blauert; Nils May |
| Abstract: | With the expansion of onshore wind power, countries increasingly consider the introduction of minimum distance regulations between wind turbines to nearby residential areas, to increase public acceptance. In 2014, the German federal state of Bavaria introduced a minimum distance regulation that requires new wind turbines to be ten times their total height away from settlements (10-H regulation). This translates into a distance of 1,900 metres on average, which far exceeds national provisions on minimum distances. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the introduction of the 10-H regulation led to a decline of the newly added wind power capacity in Bavaria of between 62 percent and 90 percent. Moreover, the legislation affected technological parameters of new wind turbines, with severe unintended consequences for the deployment and cost of wind power. The regulation triggered a reduction of the height of new turbines, which lowered energy yields and increased levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) by about 0.2 ct/kWh. Furthermore, lower energy yields also require a higher absolute number of turbines in the long term to achieve the expansion targets for onshore wind energy, counteracting the goal of increasing acceptance of wind power. |
| Keywords: | Onshore wind power; minimum distance regulation; separation distance; panel data; difference-in-differences; causal inference |
| JEL: | C21 Q42 R14 R15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1989&r= |
| By: | Michael Chong; Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emanuele Del Fava (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Monica Alexander (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Keywords: | Alabama, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, USA, bias, genealogy, mortality, statistics |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-005&r= |
| By: | Abdalla, Ahmed; Carabias, Jose M. |
| Abstract: | We propose and find that aggregate special items conveys more information about future real GDP growth than aggregate earnings before special items because the former contains advance news about future economic outcomes. A two-stage rational expectations test reveals that professional forecasters fully understand the information content of aggregate earnings before special items, but underestimate that of aggregate special items when revising their GDP forecasts. Using vector autoregressions, we show that aggregate earnings before special items has predictive ability for GDP because, as suggested by previous literature, it acts as a proxy for corporate profits included in national income. In contrast, aggregate special items captures changes in the behavior of economic agents on a timely basis, which, in turn, have real effects on firms' investment and hiring, as well as consumers' wealth and spending. Consistent with news-driven business cycles, we find that aggregate special items produces synchronized movements across macroeconomic aggregates. |
| Keywords: | aggregate earnings; aggregate special items; GDP growth; asymmetric timeliness; rational expectations; news-driven business cycles |
| JEL: | E01 E32 E60 M41 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108540&r= |
| By: | Rafael Carlos Cardim; Cláudio Tavares de Alencar |
| Abstract: | Adquirir imóveis retomados por bancos pode ser uma oportunidade de investimento, dado que os preços ofertados geralmente estão abaixo do praticado pelo mercado. Entretanto, existem potenciais adversidades como: o imóvel estar ocupado, em estado deteriorado, sem possibilidade de visitação, ou ser objeto de disputa judicial. Assim, é necessário que no momento da tomada de decisão, os investidores estejam cientes de todos os riscos envolvidos e de seus possíveis impactos no resultado esperado. Neste artigo foram analisados 132 casos reais na cidade de São Paulo, no período de maio de 2018 a abril de 2019, identificando e analisando os riscos dessa modalidade de investimento e apresentando formas de mitigação. A partir disso, criou-se uma rotina de análise dessa modalidade de investimento imobiliário, auxiliando os investidores na tomada de decisão. |
| Keywords: | Alienação fiduciária; analise da qualidade de investimento; direito imobiliário; Extrajudicial Auction; Fiduciary Sale; Investimento Imobiliário; Investment quality analysis; Leilão Extrajudicial; Real Estate Investment; real estate law |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2021-4dq6&r= |
| By: | Jane Friesen (Simon Fraser University); Brian Krauth (Simon Fraser University); Ricardo Meilman Cohn (Social Research and Demonstration Corporation) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of introducing universal full-day Kindergarten (FDK) on subsequent Grade 4 test scores. The data are from the Canadian province of British Columbia, which moved from mostly half-day to universal full-day Kindergarten between the 2010/11 and 2011/12 academic years. We exploit the staggered timing of the policy implementation using a difference-in-differences research design. Our point estimates for the average effect of FDK on achievement are mostly positive, occasionally statistically significant, and always small. The effect is substantially larger among students who speak English as a second language, a result that is consistent with prior findings. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp22-01&r= |
| By: | Alessio Fusco; Philippe Van Kerm |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the literature on the measurement of poverty persistence. The review has two parts. We first cover the literature on poverty persistence indicators which develops “principled”, descriptive summary measures. We then review the econometric literature which teases out the determinants of poverty persistence. Finally, we describe the challenges and limitations the literature on poverty persistence face. |
| Keywords: | poverty persistence; chronic poverty; hazard models; Markovian models; state dependence; attrition |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:022-02&r= |
| By: | Xing Guo; Pablo Ottonello; Diego Perez |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how monetary policy affects the asymmetric effects of globalization. We build an open-economy heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model (HANK) in which households differ in their income, wealth, and real and financial integration with international markets. We use the model to reassess classic questions in international macroeconomics, but from a distributional perspective: What are the effects of monetary policy and external shocks in open economies? And how do alternative exchange-rate regimes compare? Our analysis yields two main takeaways. First, heterogeneity in households’ international integration is a central dimension that drives the inequality in the consumption responses to external shocks more so than do income and wealth. Second, households’ heterogeneity reveals the presence of a stabilization-inequality trade-off for the conduct of monetary policy in open economies, with fixed exchange-rate regimes leading to amplified but less unequal consumption responses to external shocks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Exchange rate regimes |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-6&r= |
| By: | David Douek; Claudio Felisoni de Angelo |
| Abstract: | Embora a governança ambiental, social e corporativa (ESG) esteja cada vez mais em evidência no ambiente de negócios, há ainda muito ceticismo por parte de investidores do setor imobiliário sobre a importância do tema. Por meio de uma revisão sistemática de literatura é feita uma análise com o objetivo de auxiliar pesquisadores e tomadores de decisão na interpretação das causas e consequências possíveis, no contexto brasileiro de empresas de capital aberto do referido setor. São verificadas diferenças entre o mercado nacional e outros mercados, como a inexistência, no Brasil, de índices dedicados à avaliação de desempenho de empresas do setor imobiliário que incorporem ESG. O papel de órgãos reguladores como a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) e da Comissão de Valores Imobiliários (CVM) também é identificado como agente de mudanças. Por fim, é identificada a necessidade de aprofundar a pesquisa sobre as variáveis de ESG que efetivamente podem ser diretamente relacionadas ao desempenho dos ativos imobiliários na B3 como forma de incentivar a adoção de práticas de ESG por um número crescente de empresas. |
| Keywords: | desempenho global; Esg; gestão de ativos imobiliários; global performance; governança; Governance; investimentos imobiliários; real estate asset management; real estate performance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2021-4dqa&r= |
| By: | Montobbio, Fabio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, BRICK, Collegio Carlo Alberto, and ICRIOS, Bocconi University); Staccioli, Jacopo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, and Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna); Maria Enrica Virgillito (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vivarelli, Marco (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, IZA, and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This paper represents one of the first attempts at building a direct measure of occupational exposure to robotic labour-saving technologies. After identifying robotic and LS robotic patents retrieved by Montobbio et al. (2022), the underlying 4-digit CPC definitions are employed in order to detect functions and operations performed by technological artefacts which are more directed to substitute the labour input. This measure allows to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their similarity ranking. Occupational exposure by wage and employment dynamics in the United States is then studied, complemented by investigating industry and geographical penetration rates. |
| Keywords: | Labour-Saving Technology, Natural Language Processes, Labour Markets, Technological Unemployment |
| JEL: | O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021044&r= |
| By: | Adam Gorajek; Benjamin A. Malin |
| Abstract: | This appendix contains the pre-registered analysis for our comment on “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back” by Brodeur et al (2016). To structure the analysis, we reproduce the pre-registration; our results appear in red under each of the relevant parts. The time-stamped version of the pre-registration is available from the Open Science Framework website at the address https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/58MNJ. To understand this appendix deeply, we recommend carefully reading Brodeur et al (2016). The body of our comment paper outlines only the intuition of their method. In some of the figures presented in this appendix, we use labels that differ from those in Brodeur et al. (2016), and we do so to more clearly connect to the intuition we offer. |
| Keywords: | Researcher bias; Research credibility; Research replicability; Z-curve |
| JEL: | A11 C13 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93461&r= |
| By: | Jacobi, Milan |
| Abstract: | Six years have passed since the so-called 'long summer of migration' of 2015, and the numbers of newly arriving asylum-seekers in Germany have flattened. However, as one of the main receiving countries of refugees, other challenges are coming into focus. Besides labour market participation and cultural participation, political participation is crucial to social life. But how to enable the political participation of refugees in host countries remains a challenge. This study examines how refugees without the condition of citizenship, who, thus, lack formal, electoral means of participation, can engage in political activities. To this end, it first uses a qualitative approach to examine how various self-organisations in the city of Cologne, Germany, use their resources to bring their interests into the political decision-making process. Second, it examines the political opportunity structures that exist at the local level to enable refugee self-organisations (RSOs) to engage in political activities. For this purpose, interviews were conducted with representatives of the organisations as well as the municipality and other civil society actors in Cologne. The results show that RSOs can be important partners for municipal decision-makers when it comes to refugee-specific issues. However, the results also suggest that opportunity structures are unevenly distributed among organisations and affect the organisations' resource endowments, thus limiting access. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:342021&r= |
| By: | Nicholas Li (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada) |
| Abstract: | I provide evidence on long-run changes in female work for six Indian states common to the 1998-99 and 2019 time-use surveys. Rural women experienced large decreases in work time (especially paid work) but urban women did not. Men experienced larger declines in paid work but partly compensated with greater self-employment. Changes in self-reported ``usual work status'' do not provide an accurate measure of these changes in work time. Declining work for rural women is observed regardless of self-reported work status, education level, caste/religious group, or state. Leisure time for women increased, reducing the gender-gap in leisure by 50%. |
| Keywords: | women; gender; work; India; time-use; inequality |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O1 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rye:wpaper:wp084&r= |
| By: | Giuberti Coutinho, Lorena (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht) |
| Abstract: | Influential scholars have pointed to the Internet and social media as a reason for the recent political divide in many countries. Greater exposure to imbalanced information in these environments would reinforce previous political positions leading voters to develop more extreme positions or greater animosity towards candidates of the opposing political group, a phenomenon known as affective polarization. This study investigates the impact of Internet and social media use on Brazil's recent affective polarization, exploring the historical peculiarities in the layout of pre-existing infrastructure that causes exogenous variation in Internet and social media usage. There is no empirical evidence that access to this new media environment explains affective polarization within the population under this study. Findings are consistent with the strand of literature suggesting that the recent phenomena of political polarization in some countries cannot be attributed to Internet and social media use |
| Keywords: | political polarization, broadband internet, Brazil |
| JEL: | D12 D72 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021032&r= |
| By: | Armando Marozzi |
| Abstract: | Central Bank Independence has often been praised as a "free lunch" as it lowers inflation with no costs to output. This paper, instead, claims that in a peculiar monetary union such as the European Monetary Union (EMU) defending the independence during a financial crisis can be macroeconomically costly: unconventional monetary policies may expose the European Central Bank (ECB) to the threat of fiscal dominance which, in turn, might endogenously shift the ECB’s fiscal stance toward fiscal conservatism. Fiscally hawkish signals can then depress GDP and inflation, thereby forcing the ECB to prolong the unconventional stimuli to achieve its target. This paper finds evidence of this new "doom-loop" at the core of the EMU. |
| Keywords: | ECB, monetary-fiscal interaction, CBI, unconventional monetary policy, EMU, fiscal communication |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 E63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21152&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the foundations of the unilateral standard accident model under Knightian uncertainty. It extends the Teitelbaum (2007)'s seminal article (who introduces radical uncertainty) by expanding it from producers to victims and from the probability distribution of accidents to the scale of damage. Mainly, it also considers a regulator who aggregates the agents' preferences (Neghisi (1960) type). Under the condition that the troublemakers' resources are sufficient to cover the damage, the article shows that uncertainty does not preclude, first, the determination of a socially optimal level of care, and second, whatever the civil liability regime (strict liability or negligence) it shows that they determine the same level of socially first-best care. The solution is inefficient only when the polluter's wealth is insufficient to repair the victim's losses. |
| Keywords: | Tort Law,Ambiguity Theory,Strict Liability,Negligence Rule,Liability Regimes equivalence |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502617&r= |
| By: | Richter, Ralph; Witte, Paul |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irsdia:12022&r= |
| By: | Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073586358 Grift; Annette|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/079405169 van den Berg; Tina Dulam |
| Abstract: | We use the 2016-17 wave of the LAPOP AmericasBarometer survey to investigate the relationship between economic hardship and subjective well-being (SWB) for Latin America. In addition, we analyze whether the negative effect of economic hardship on SWB can be mitigated by immaterial resources rather than material resources. Analogous to Reeskens and Vandecasteele (2017) regarding Europe, we compare the impact of the institutions social trust, religiosity, and confidence in politics with the impact of welfare state expenditures in Latin America. Our results also show that economic hardship has a negative effect on subjective wellbeing. In contrast to the findings for Europe, the negative effect of economic hardship can be strengthened or attenuated depending on the degree of religiosity and trustworthiness of the community. The moderating effect of confidence in politics was not found. Concerning the moderating influence of welfare state expenditure, our findings are partly in line with the results for Europe. In Europe a larger social welfare state suppresses the informal institutions social contacts and confidence in politics whereas in Latin America a larger social welfare state overturns interpersonal trust (as a proxy for social contacts) and religiosity. Hence, we also find evidence for the crowding out hypothesis, namely that in more generous welfare states one is less dependent on their immaterial resources for finding happiness. |
| Keywords: | subjective well-being, life satisfaction, hapiness, economic hardship, institutions |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2106&r= |
| By: | Sherwood, Charles |
| Abstract: | I argue that lying in business negotiations is pro tanto wrong and no less wrong than lying in other contexts. First, I assert that lying in general is pro tanto wrong. Then, I examine and refute five arguments to the effect that lying in a business context is less wrong than lying in other contexts. The common thought behind these arguments—based on consent, self-defence, the “greater good,” fiduciary duty, and practicality—is that the particular circumstances which are characteristic of business negotiations are such that the wrongness of lying is either mitigated or eliminated completely. I argue that all these “special exemption” arguments fail. I conclude that, in the absence of a credible argument to the contrary, the same moral constraints must apply to lying in business negotiations as apply to lying in other contexts. Furthermore, I show that for the negotiator, there are real practical benefits from not lying. |
| Keywords: | business ethics; negotiation; lying; consent; self-defence; fiduciary duty; CUP deal |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113331&r= |
| By: | Luigi Guiso; Massimo Morelli; Tommaso Sonno; Helios Herrera |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the financial crisis was a watershed in the burst of populism both on the demand side (voters behaviour) and on the supply side (political parties behaviour). On the demand side, we provide novel results on the causal effect of the financial crisis on trust, turnout and voting choices via its effects on voters economic insecurity. Economic insecurity peaks during the financial crisis and extends to segments of the population untouched by the globalization and robotization shocks. To establish causality, we use a pseudo-panel analysis and instrument the economic insecurity of different cohorts leveraging on a new methodology designed to highlight the different sensitivity to financial constraints for people in different occupations. On the supply side, we trace from manifestos the policy positions of old and new parties showing that the supply of populism had the largest jump right after the financial crisis. The size of the jump is largest in countries with low fiscal space and for parties on the left of the political spectrum. We provide a formal rationalization for the key role of fiscal space, showing how the pre-financial crisis shocks enter the picture as sources of a shrinking fiscal space. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Supply of Populism; Financial Crisis; Fiscal Space; Age-Earning Profiles |
| JEL: | D72 D78 D14 H30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21166&r= |
| By: | Benito Arruñada |
| Abstract: | Las empresas españolas sufren todo tipo de dificultades como consecuencia de un ordenamiento fiscal y regulatorio que numerosos informes internacionales consideran notoriamente mejorable. Por este motivo, son bienvenidos los esfuerzos para reformarlo y aliviar as las cargas y frenos a la creación y desarrollo de la empresa. En este sentido, es positivo que el Gobierno se haya comprometido con la Comisión Europea a efectuar una reforma estructural en esta materia, un compromiso al que intenta dar cumplimiento con el proyecto de ley de creación y crecimiento de empresas, la conocida como “Ley Crea y Crece”, la cual “tiene por objeto mejorar el clima de negocios, impulsar el emprendimiento y fomentar el aumento del tama o empresarial, así como el despliegue de redes de colaboración e interacción". |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2022-03&r= |
| By: | Catherine Bobtcheff (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raphaël Levy (HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales); Thomas Mariotti (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Two players receiving independent signals on a risky project with common value compete to be the first to invest. We characterize the equilibrium of this preemption game as the publicity of signals varies. Private signals create a winner's curse: the first mover suspects that his rival might have privately received adverse information, hence exited. To compensate, players seek more evidence supporting the project, resulting in later investment. A conservative planner concerned with avoiding unprofitable investments may then prefer private signals. Our results suggest that policy interventions should primarily tackle winner-takes-all competition, and regulate transparency only once competition is sufficiently mild. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03507030&r= |
| By: | Giacomo Battiston; Gianmarco Daniele; Marco Le Moglie; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | We show that the War on Drugs launched by the Mexican President Felipe Calderón in 2007 pushed drug cartels into large-scale oil thefts. Municipalities that the presidential candidate’s party barely won at the local elections in 2007-2009 exhibit a larger increase in illegal oil taps over the following years, compared to municipalities in which the presidential candidate’s party barely lost the elections. Challenger cartels in the drug market leapfrog incumbent drug cartels when entering the new illegal activity, analogous to what is typically observed in legal markets. Since challengers and incumbents specialize in different criminal sectors, the expansion of challengers does not increase violence in municipalities traversed by oil pipelines. At the same time, the municipalities traversed by a pipeline witness a decrease in schooling rates. |
| Keywords: | Organized crime, War on Drugs, Oil thefts, Leapfrogging |
| JEL: | K42 L20 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp22171&r= |
| By: | Cosmin Butura (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In a growing world of population, the world economy and air pollution, urban and rural agglomeration by motor vehicles is caused by the factors stated. Numerous road safety studies have been carried out worldwide, showing that the only means of transport with the lowest mortality rate remain airplanes, ships and trains. Even if the issue of aggressive pollution by driver overcrowding has been asked at the level of international institutions, we cannot talk about a restriction of the human right to enjoy his personal property. This overpopulation has led to the decimation of regulations, conduct and laws governing urban and rural traffic by encouraging citizens to use vehicles with CO2 emissions as low as possible or even electric, bicycles, mopeds, and electric scooters, etc. However, the environment is not the only problem facing large cities, but rather another major problem being the lack of road infrastructure, but exactly the original streets and boulevards are no longer coping with car surpluses. This aspect has forced, in economic developed cities, acceleration of inventions in the field by: bridges, suspended variants or underground passages, motorways and unique boulevards (for example 6 strips per one). Even if there were numerous efforts to reduce the number of cars, it continues to grow daily, the factors being multiple, and traffic accidents in traffic are exceeded. Are we asking why there are still road accidents, given that we are in the century of speed, state-of-the-art technology? Well, if the computers itself produce system errors, then we understand that the human being is the only computer that produces errors that are impossible to prevented. Although there are numerous appearances in the showrooms of large motor vehicles that promise their endowment with advanced artificial intelligence, the social status of each country in the world differs, which makes it impossible to acquire all drivers. So, road accidents cannot be eliminated, they will only be in a continuous prevention, in order to reduce their number and at the same time increasing the safety of pedestrians and drivers. That is why in this paper I will talk about how a forensic expertise is achieved in the case of road accidents. |
| Keywords: | accident, infrastructure, forensics, expertise, technology, safety |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0057&r= |
| By: | Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Kshitiz Dahal |
| Abstract: | This paper is an exploratory assessment of the coherence of policies, strategies and laws that have a bearing on Nepal's international trade, and the mechanism and extent of coordination between government agencies and between the government and the private sector in trade-related decision making, including policy formulation and implementation. It outlines possible measures for achieving policy coherence and improved inter-agency coordination. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy, tariffs, revenue, non-tariff measures, export promotion, import substitution, institutions, coordination failure |
| JEL: | F10 F13 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:wpaper:wp/21/01&r= |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Ralf K. Himmelreicher |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen anhand von repräsentativen Daten für die Privatwirtschaft (Verdienststrukturerhebung 2018) Anteile und Höhe von umgewandelten Entgelten nach verschiedenen individuellen und betrieblichen Merkmalen von Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern in Deutschland für das Jahr 2018. Deskriptive wie multivariate Regressionsanalysen weisen sowohl auf eine selektive Teilnahmebereitschaft zur Umwandlung als auch auf eine mit steigendem Einkommen erhöhte Bereitschaft höhere Entgelte umzuwandeln hin. Große Unterschiede bestehen zwischen Frauen und Männern, zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland sowie zwischen verschiedenen Branchen. Im Mindestlohn- und Niedriglohnbereich ist Entgeltumwandlung kaum verbreitet, und falls doch, dominieren monatliche Beiträge, die 50 Euro selten übersteigen. Bei geringfügig Beschäftigten ist Entgeltumwandlung die seltene Ausnahme. Und umgekehrt ist der Anteil der Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer am oberen Ende der Einkommensverteilung, die Anteile ihresArbeitsentgeltes umwandeln, besonders hoch; die Höhe ihre umgewandelten Beiträge steigt dabei exponentiell. Gerade für gering qualifizierte Beschäftigte im Mindest- und Niedriglohnbereich in typischen Niedriglohnbranchen wird das sinkende Rentenniveau eher selten durch ergänzende Entgeltumwandlung kompensiert. Insbesondere in Ostdeutschland, wo im Vergleich zu Westdeutschland kleinere Betriebe ohne Tarifbindung und mit niedrigeren Arbeitsentgelten häufiger vorkommen, wird Entgeltumwandlung kaum praktiziert, weshalb Defizite in der betrieblichen Altersvorsorge und somit insgesamt niedrigere Alterseinkünfte in Zukunft zu erwarten sind. |
| Keywords: | Betriebliche Altersvorsorge, Entgeltumwandlung, Einkommensverteilung |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E27 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1977&r= |
| By: | Han Gao; Mariano Kulish; Juan Pablo Nicolini |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we review the relationship between inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and rates of growth of monetary aggregates for a large group of OECD countries. If persistent changes in the monetary policy regime are accounted for, the behavior of these series maintains the close relationship predicted by standard quantity theory models. With an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to alternative frictions that can deliver quite different high-frequency dynamics. We also show that the low-frequency component of the data derived from statistical filters does reasonably well in capturing these regime changes. We conclude that the quantity theory relationships are alive and well, and thus they are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation. |
| Keywords: | Money demand; Monetary aggregates; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93495&r= |
| By: | Kunze, Astrid (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have investigated whether the provision and generosity of parental leave affects the employment and career prospects of women. Parental leave systems typically provide either short unpaid leave mandated by the firm, as in the US, or more generous and universal leave mandated by the government, as in Canada and several European countries. Key economic policy questions include whether, at the macro level, female employment rates have increased due to parental leave policies; and, at the micro level, whether the probability of returning to work and career prospects have increased for mothers after childbirth. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply; children; parental leave; skills; return to work; human capital |
| JEL: | J00 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Aaron Amburgey; Michael W. McCracken |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are subject to revision. We conclude by evaluating the real-time predictive content of NFCI vintages for quantiles of real GDP growth. While our results largely reinforce the literature, we find gains to using real-time vintages leading up to recessions — precisely when policymakers need such a monitoring device. |
| Keywords: | out-of-sample forecasts; real-time data; quantiles |
| JEL: | C12 C32 C38 C52 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93642&r= |
| By: | Assietou Dia (CRESE EA3190, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté, F-25000 Besançon, France); Mathurin Founanou (Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, LARES, Sénégal); Zaka Ratsimalahelo (CRESE EA3190, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté, F-25000 Besançon, France) |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse l'importance du rôle de l'agriculture dans le développement du Sénégal au cours des dernières années. Plus particulièrement, il étudie l’impact des différents programmes qui ont été mis en œuvre pour la relance du secteur agricole. En utilisant un Model dynamique Auto régressif à retards échelonnés (ARDL), nous observons que la production agricole a un impact positif et significatif sur la croissance économique du Sénégal aussi bien à court qu’à long terme. Cependant, la performance de l’agriculture comme levier de croissance reste relativement faible. Ce résultat met en évidence la nécessité d’adapter les programmes agricoles pour le développement pour une croissance socio-économique soutenable. |
| Keywords: | Production agricole, Croissance économique, ARDL, Sénégal |
| JEL: | E31 O55 G14 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Holger Breinlich (University of Surrey); Elsa Leromain (IRES/LIDAM, UC Louvain); Dennis Novy (University of Warwick); Thomas Sampson (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce industry-level exports by cutting domestic production. We show that this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). But there was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our empirical results to calibrate the strength of scale economies in a quantitative trade model. Counterfactual analysis implies that while PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries because of the export destruction effect. On aggregate, the US and China both gain from PNTR, but the gains are larger for China. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0222&r= |
| By: | Oxholm, Anne Sophie (University of Southern Denmark, DaCHE - Danish Centre for Health Economics); Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte (University of Southern Denmark, DaCHE - Danish Centre for Health Economics); Bøtcher Jacobsen, Christian (Department of Political Science, Aarhus University); Thy Jensen, Ulrich (School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University); Bjørnskov Pedersen, Line (University of Southern Denmark, DaCHE - Danish Centre for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Health economists typically use agency theory to predict how physicians respond to various policy schemes. Empirical studies show that many schemes lead to unintended responses, indicating that current theoretical models fail to fully explain physicians’ behaviour. Drawing on key lessons from social psychology and public administration literatures, we propose to expand the principal-agent framework by unfolding physicians’ non-pecuniary motives to provide care using three components: patient benefits, intrinsic motivation, and societal benefits (externalities). We argue how each of these motivational components align with the existing agency framework and provide examples of how to measure the degree to which physicians are motivated by these components. Finally, we discuss how physicians’ non-pecuniary motives can be used to inform policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Health care; agency theory; double agency; altruism; externalities; user orientation; intrinsic motivation; public service motivation; non-financial incentives |
| JEL: | I10 I11 |
| Date: | 2022–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sduhec:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Bitsch, Linda; Hanf, Jon H. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305619&r= |
| By: | Martin Hodula; Jan Janku; Lukas Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which various structural risks exacerbate the materialization of cyclical risk. We use a large database covering all sorts of cyclical and structural features of the financial sector and the real economy for a panel of 30 countries over the period 2006Q1–2019Q4. We show that elevated levels of structural risks may have an important role in explaining the severity of cyclical and credit risk materialization during financial cycle contractions. Among these risks, private and public sector indebtedness, banking sector resilience and concentration of real estate exposures stand out. Moreover, we show that the elevated levels of some of the structural risks identified may be related to long-standing accommodative economic policy. Our evidence implies a stronger role for macroprudential policy, especially in countries with higher levels of structural risks |
| Keywords: | Cyclical risk, event study, financial cycle, panel regression, structural risks, systemic risk |
| JEL: | E32 G15 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2021/03&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020 using receipt of a hypothetical unanticipated, one-time income payment. Reported MPCs are modest, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic uncertainty. Signi?cant fractions of respondents report they would use a windfall to pay down debt, or that they would change their transfer payments to or from family and friends. The latter means that the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC. |
| Date: | 2021–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/26&r= |
| By: | Charitopoulos, V.; Fajardy, M.; Chyong, C. K.; Reiner, D. |
| Abstract: | Unlike power sector decarbonisation, there has been little progress made on heat, which is currently the biggest energy consumer in the UK, accounting for 45% of total energy consumption in 2019, and almost 40% of UK GHG emissions. Given the UK’s legally binding commitment to "Net-Zero" by 2050, decarbonising heat is becoming urgent and currently one of the main pathways involves its electrification. Here, we present a spatially-explicit optimisation model that investigates the implications of electrifying heat on the operation of the power sector. Using hourly historical gas demand data, we conclude that the domestic peak heat demand is almost 50% lower than widely-cited values. A 100% electrification pathway can be achieved with only a 1.3-fold increase in generation capacity compared to a power-only decarbonisation scenario, but only, by leveraging the role of thermal energy storage technologies without which a further 40% increase would be needed. |
| Keywords: | heat electrification, energy systems optimisation, carbon capture and storage, heat pumps, unit commitment, investment planning |
| JEL: | C31 C61 C63 L94 L95 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2210&r= |
| By: | Luca Bellodi; Massimo Morelli; Matia Vannoni |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of populism on bureaucratic expertise and government performance. We use novel data on about 8,000 municipalities in Italy, over a period of 20 years, and we estimate the effect of electing a populist mayor with a close-election regression discontinuity design. We find that the election of a populist mayor leads to (1) higher turnover among top bureaucrats; (2) an increase in the probability of replacing expert with non-expert bureaucrats; (3) a decrease in the percentage of highly educated bureaucrats; (4) and lower performance overall. Moreover, we find evidence that the increased inefficiency of the bureaucracy is accompanied by proliferation of council and executive resolutions, in line with the recent literature on overproduction of laws and bureaucratic inefficiency. |
| Keywords: | Bureaucracy, Turnover, Populist Politicians, Government Performance |
| JEL: | H11 H83 D73 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21158&r= |
| By: | Joe Cho Yiu NG; Charles Ka Yui LEUNG; Suikang CHEN |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between corporate real estate (CRE) holdings and stock returns before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We find that (1) the United States and the United Kingdom show a negative relationship before the GFC and positive after the GFC. (2) Firms that pay positive tax or have positive R&D investments are not systematically different from the full sample. This finding cannot support the "scarce capital" theory or the tax incentive explanation, but it is consistent with the “empire building” theory. After the GFC, financial constraints tightened, and both CRE holding and stock returns dropped. (3) European (excluding the United Kingdom) sample shows a positive relationship in the pre-crisis period. This finding is compatible with the "illiquidity premium" theory. However, the association becomes inconclusive in the post-crisis period. (3) The Japanese sample shows a negative association between CRE and stock returns in the pre-crisis period, like the United States and the United Kingdom. However, the relationship becomes statistically insignificant in the post-crisis period, consistent with the theory of financial constraint tightening after the GFC. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1158&r= |
| By: | Loudi Njoya (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Ibrahim Ngouhouo (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Friedrich Schneider (Kepler University of Linz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This paper is interested in explaining the causes of the simultaneous evolution between economic growth and informality. Using a large annual panel of African countries with a time series of 25 years, ours results show that when the corruption rate is above (below) a threshold of 1.3577, economic growth reduces (increases) informal economic sector. The corruption proxy is measured as a decreasing function of corruption such that higher levels of the corruption proxy translate lower levels of corruption. It is therefore desirable for policymakers to improve the transparency of interactions between firms, public and private agents to fight corruption, in view of decreasing the informal economic sector through economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Informal sector, Growth, Corruption, African countries |
| JEL: | D73 F47 J46 O1 O17 O47 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/012&r= |
| By: | Kévin Flamme (EGEI - Éthique et Gouvernance de l’Entreprise et des Institutions - UCO - Université Catholique de l'Ouest, IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03485797&r= |
| By: | John Caramichael; Gordon Y. Liao |
| Abstract: | Stablecoins have experienced tremendous growth in the past year, serving as a possible breakthrough innovation in the future of payments. In this paper, we discuss the current use cases and growth opportunities of stablecoins, and we analyze the potential for stablecoins to broadly impact the banking system. The impact of stablecoin adoption on traditional banking and credit provision can vary depending on the sources of inflow and the composition of stablecoin reserves. Among the various scenarios, a two-tiered banking system can both support stablecoin issuance and maintain traditional forms of credit creation. In contrast, a narrow bank approach for digital currencies can lead to disintermediation of traditional banking, but may provide the most stable peg to fiat currencies. Additionally, dollar-pegged stablecoins backed by adequately safe and liquid collateral can potentially serve as a digital safe haven currency during periods of crypto market distress. |
| Keywords: | Stablecoins; Digital currencies; Credit intermediation; Banking; Systemic risk; Fintech; Financial innovation; Payment system |
| JEL: | E40 E50 F33 G10 G20 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1334&r= |
| By: | Óscar Afonso (Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, CEF.UP and OBEGEF); Elena Sochirca (Department of Management and Economics, University of Beira Interior, NECE and NIPE); Pedro Cunha Neves (Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, CEF.UP and OBEGEF) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model in which robots can replace unskilled labor and: i) the government uses tax revenues to invest in social capital and compensate those who do not work; ii) there is monetary policy with cash-in-advance restrictions that impact, for example, wages; iii) social capital increases skilled-labor productivity and facilitates the technological-knowledge progress. Our results confirm that by reducing the unskilled-to-skilled-labor ratio, the robotization process increases the skill premium (and thus wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers), stimulates economic growth and improves welfare. We also show that fiscal and monetary policies can have important roles in amplifying or mitigating these effects of the robotization process and that implementing specific policies can generate an important efficiency-equity trade-off. Despite the existence of this trade-off, the long-run economic growth is higher with than without the fiscal and monetary policies, which underlines their crucial role in attenuating the negative aspects of Industry 4.0. |
| Keywords: | Robots; Social Capital; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Growth |
| JEL: | E62 I31 I38 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:2201&r= |
| By: | Mark Regan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Barra Roantree (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Economic and Social Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that finishing school when labour markets are weak leads to poor subsequent labour market prospects, particularly those leaving school at younger ages. Using administrative register data from Denmark, we find that these scarring effects are larger and more persistent for young adults from the lowest-income backgrounds. |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/28&r= |
| By: | Gérard Mondello (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | The amendments made to CERCLA in 1996 reinforced the exemption of lenders that finance ultra-hazardous activities. Then, they become involved in liability only if they manage or own polluting activities. The paper compares strict liability and negligence rule in an agency model of vicarious liability type, and proposes to restore lenders as principal by applying negligence rules to them while operators would resort to a strict liability rule. This scheme leads the lender to propose to the borrower the most favorable loan level that induces the latter to provide the socially optimal security level. |
| Keywords: | Strict liability,negligence rule,moral hazard,judgment-proof,lenders,risky activities. JEL: K0,K32,Q01,Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03502612&r= |
| By: | Österholm, Pär (Örebro University School of Business); Poon, Aubrey (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the period – although in general at a level below the inflation target – and it does not appear to have been affected much by the recent high inflation numbers. |
| Keywords: | Unobserved components model; Inflation target; Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C52 E32 |
| Date: | 2022–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Atkinson, Giles; Ovando, Paola |
| Abstract: | Accounting for ecosystems is increasingly central to natural capital accounting. What is missing from this, however, is an answer to questions about how natural capital is distributed. That is, who consumes ecosystem services and who owns or manages the underlying asset(s) that give rise to ecosystem services. In this paper, we examine the significance of the ownership of land on which ecosystem assets (or ecosystem types) is located in the context of natural capital accounting. We illustrate this in an empirical application to two ecosystem services and a range of ecosystem types and land ownership in Scotland, a context in which land reform debates are longstanding. Our results indicate the relative importance of private land in ecosystem service supply, rather than land held by the public sector. We find relative concentration of ownership for land providing comparatively high amounts of carbon sequestration. For air pollution removal, however, the role of smaller to medium sized, mostly privately owned, land holdings closer to urban settlements becomes more prominent. The contributions in this paper, we argue, represent important first steps in anticipating distributional impacts of natural capital (and related) policy in natural capital accounts as well as connecting these frameworks to broader concerns about wealth disparities across and within countries. |
| Keywords: | distribution; ecosystem services; equity; natural capital accounting; landownership; Springer deal |
| JEL: | Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2021–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112171&r= |
| By: | Karsten Kohler; Engelbert Stockhammer |
| Abstract: | While flexible exchange rates are commonly regarded as shock absorbers, heterodox views suggest that they can play a pro-cyclical role in emerging markets. This article provides theoretical and empirical support for this view. Drawing on post-Keynesian and structuralist theory, we propose a simple model in which flexible exchange rates in conjunction with external shocks become endogenous drivers of boom-bust cycles, once financial effects from foreign-currency debt are accounted for. We present empirical evidence for regular cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates in several emerging markets that are closely aligned with cycles in economic activity. An econometric analysis suggests the presence of a cyclical interaction mechanism between exchange rates and output, in line with the theoretical model, in Chile, South Africa, and partly the Philippines. Further evidence indicates that such exchange rate cycles cannot exclusively be attributed to external factors, such as commodity prices, US monetary policy or the global financial cycle. We therefore argue that exchange rate cycles in emerging markets are driven by the interplay of external shocks and endogenous cycle mechanisms. Our argument implies that exchange rate management may be beneficial for macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, emerging markets, boom-bust cycles, structuralism, global financial cycle, commodity prices |
| JEL: | C32 E12 E32 F31 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2205&r= |
| By: | Gert G. Wagner |
| Abstract: | It is striking that economists in particular firmly believe in the benefits of rule-binding, even though this belief runs counter to the standard assumption of economic theory that we humans are self-interested and therefore extremely resourceful when it comes to circumventing inconvenient government regulations, e.g. taxes. In Public Choice Theory, politicians are even assumed to have nothing but self-interest as their guiding motive for action. Why then, in this world of thought, should ultra-self-interested politicians of all people adhere to simple rules such as the debt brake instead of bypass them, if – as is also assumed in this model world – all that matters to them is short-term electoral success, for which government debt can be helpful. |
| Keywords: | Rule-binding, Champbell, Goodhart’s Law, Hobbes |
| JEL: | B10 B20 K00 P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1982&r= |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mattia Guerini (University of Brescia, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mauro Napoletano (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]) |
| Abstract: | We build a simple dynamic model to study the effects of technological learning, market selection and international competition in the determination of export flows and market shares. The model features two countries populated by firms with heterogeneous productivity levels and sales. Market selection in each country is driven by a finite pairwise Pólya urn process. We show that market selection leads either to a national or to an international monopoly in presence of a static distribution of firm productivity levels. We then incorporate firm learning and entry-exit in the model and we show that the market structure does not converge to a monopoly. In addition, we show that the extended model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade,industrial dynamics,rm dynamics,market selection,Pólya urn |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03509092&r= |
| By: | John List |
| Abstract: | In 2019, I put together a summary of data from my field experiments website that pertained to natural field experiments. Several people have asked me if I have an update. In this document I update all figures and numbers to show the details for 2021. I also include the description from the 2019 paper below. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00747&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Eaton; David Jinkins; James Tybout; Daniel Yi Xu |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic model of international business-to-business transactions in which sellers and buyers search for each other, with the probability of a match depending on both individual and aggregate search effort. Fit to customs records on U.S. apparel imports, the model captures key cross-sectional and dynamic features of international buyer-seller relationships. We use the model to make several quantitative inferences. First, we calculate the search costs borne by heterogeneous importers and exporters. Second, we provide a structural interpretation for the life cycles of importers and exporters as they endogenously acquire and lose foreign business partners. Third, we pursue counterfactuals that approximate the phaseout of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (the “China shock") and the IT revolution. Lower search costs can significantly improve consumer welfare, but at the expense of importer pro ts. On the other hand, an increase in the population of foreign exporters can congest matching to the extent of dampening or even reversing the gains consumers enjoy from access to extra varieties and more retailers. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-02&r= |
| By: | Felipe Vaz Moreira |
| Abstract: | O mercado de Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs) tem ganho cada vez mais relevância no mercado brasileiro de investimentos. Segundo dados da B3 de dezembro de 2020, já são mais de 1,2 milhão de investidores cotistas (um terço do total de investidores na Bolsa), com valor de mercado de R$ 122 bilhões e representados por 311 Fundos negociados na B3. A partir do momento em que há muitas alternativas de alocação, tanto em termos de quantidade de FIIs, segmentos de atuação e estratégias, impõe aos investidores maiores desafios no momento de selecionar as opções que mais se adequem aos seus objetivos, estratégia de diversificação e perfil de investidor. O objetivo do estudo é propor uma metodologia de classificação (rating) por meio de um conjunto de atributos a serem observados na análise de Fundos Imobiliários do Brasil, auxiliando assim os investidores em suas tomadas de decisão. Ao final do artigo, será apresentada uma matriz relacionando os ratings atribuídos aos FIIs analisados com a precificação de suas cotas no mercado (valor de mercado da cota versus valor patrimonial da cota), de forma a facilitar a identificação de oportunidades de alocação ou revisão de um dado portifólio atual de FIIs. Também será apresentado um diagnóstico feito com o uso da metodologia de back-testing, para avaliar se os FIIs com maior rating atribuído tiveram performance destacada frente ao IFIX (Índice de Fundos de Investimentos Imobiliários – B3). |
| Keywords: | Atributos; Attributes; classificação; Classification; fundos imobiliários; Portfolios; portifólios; Rating; Real Estate Funds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2021-4dpy&r= |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Maruyama, Eduardo; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Ce document cherche à intégrer deux typologies spatiales existantes pour mieux comprendre les principaux obstacles et contraintes à la sécurité alimentaire et aux moyens de subsistance viables des agriculteurs au Sénégal. L’objectif principal de cette étude est précisément d'identifier et de localiser les différents goulots d'étranglement qui empêchent une pleine réalisation du potentiel agricole de chaque zone tout en améliorant les résultats nutritionnels finaux de la population. |
| Keywords: | SENEGAL, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, poverty, livelihoods, nutrition, agricultural production, spatial typologies, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:farmpn:3&r= |
| By: | Wafa Sahraoui (Université de Sousse); Rimvie Enoc Kabore (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]) |
| Date: | 2021–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03503462&r= |
| By: | Robert Böhm; Cornelia Betsch; Yana Litovsky; Philipp Sprengholz; Noel T. Brewer; Gretchen Chapman; Julie Leask; George Leowenstein; Martha Scherzer; Cass R. Sunstein; Michael Kirchler |
| Abstract: | We apply a novel crowdsourcing approach to provide rapid insights on the most promising interventions to promote uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccines. In the first stage, international experts proposed 46 unique interventions. To reduce noise and potential bias, in the second stage, experts and representative general population samples from the UK and the US rated the proposed interventions on several criteria, including expected effectiveness and acceptability. Sanctions were evaluated as potentially most effective but least accepted. Interventions that received the most positive evaluations regarding both effectiveness and acceptability across evaluation groups were a day off after getting vaccinated, financial incentives, tax benefits, benefit campaigns, and mobile vaccination teams. The results provide useful insights to help governments in their decision which interventions to implement. |
| Keywords: | booster vaccination, COVID-19, interventions |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2022-03&r= |
| By: | Montizaan, Raymond (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Bijlsma, Ineke (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Abstract: | De AOW-leeftijd stijgt sinds 2013 stapsgewijs van 65 jaar naar 67 jaar in 2024. ROA heeft in opdracht van het Ministerie van SZW de feiten en trends die samenhangen met de AOW-leeftijdsverhoging onderzocht voor de periode 2007-2019. Het onderzoek betreft de derde editie van de AOW-monitor. De monitor is gebaseerd op een conceptueel kader dat uitgaat van een evaluatiemodel waarin diverse fasen worden onderscheiden van het proces waarop de verhoging van de AOW-leeftijd een effect heeft op de uitkomsten die relevant zijn voor het beleidsproces. |
| Date: | 2022–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarep:2022009&r= |
| By: | Irene Botosaru; Chris Muris; Senay Sokullu |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a class of fixed-T nonlinear panel models with time-varying link function, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. We establish sufficient conditions for the identification of the regression coefficients, the time-varying link function, the distribution of counterfactual outcomes, and certain (time-varying) average partial effects. We propose estimators for these objects and study their asymptotic properties. We show the relevance of our model by estimating the effect of teaching practices on student attainment as measured by test scores on standardized tests in mathematics and science. We use data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, and show that both traditional and modern teaching practices have positive effects of similar magnitudes on the performance of U.S. students on standardized tests in math and science. |
| Keywords: | Nonlinear panel model; fixed effects; endogeneity; partial effects; time-varying transformation; student achievement |
| JEL: | C14 C23 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Steffen Peters (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-006&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to shed light on how two factors "central bank's design and central bankers' preferences" progressively assumed a crucial role in the evolution of monetary policy economics in the last four decades. The two factors jointly identify the importance of central bank governance in influencing monetary policy decisions through their interactions with the monetary policy rules, given the assumptions about how macroeconomic systems work. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, central bank independence, central banker conservatism, monetary policy committees, political economics, behavioural economics |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21153&r= |
| By: | Moe Skjølsvold, Tomas (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Berge, Erling (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Bjørnstad, Sverre (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Wiig, Henrik (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper originates from a series of “trust games” performed in Malawi during the summer of 2007. The results from the games are interpreted as pure stylized cases of a social dilemma. Some dilemmas, such as the prisoner’s dilemma, are more difficult to resolve than others. These are also called social traps. A group encountering a social trap can resolve it to the advantage of the group only by cooperation. The experiments were conducted in 18 villages, 6 from each of the 3 regions North, Centre, and South. Fifteen households from each village participated in the study. These were first interviewed, and later one person from each household was selected to play a trust game against another representative from the village. We lost a total of 3 players resulting in game results from 267 trust games. The interviews were analysed separately and provided the material for the construction of indexes by factor analysis (Berge et al. 2020a). The paper discusses the problems encountered in using this type of experiments. Economists specializing in experiments like this will often presume that results from a trust game are a good measure of general trust. The analysis of our data suggests that the game results measure actions. Actions that can be interpreted as demonstrating trust, but not trust as such. The trust games played are constructed as a social trap. The analysis of the data suggests that there is correlation between living in a village imbued by a culture of cooperation and the ability to avoid stepping into the trap in the game. All villages seem to be characterized by a culture of cooperation. Hence all players on average earn by participating in the game. But we also see that just as the theory predicts, the ego-centred players in a village with a high level of cooperation are the players who earn the most. By constructing indexes that characterize the context of each player we see that the ego-centred player earns most in villages located closer to an urban centre and where trust in relatives and family members are strongest. The winnings are somewhat less where trust in traditional authorities is stronger. The outcomes for these general relations are modified by the fact that the impact of the indexes is different in the different regions South, Centre, and North. |
| Keywords: | Malawi; trust game; villages; factor indexes |
| JEL: | C72 C93 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Prümer, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | Changes in the employment sector over the course of a career, i.e., employees switching from the private to the public sector or vice versa, are a common phenomenon. These sector switches have hardly been studied so far. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel I give insights into sector switching in Germany. Further, I analyze whether individual characteristics or attitudes affect the probability of switching sectors. I show that women are more likely to switch to the public sector than men and that the probability of switching to the public sector is positively related to education. In contrast, attitudes rather than socio-demographic characteristics are relevant for the probability of switching to the private sector. I argue that deepening the knowledge of sector switching can enrich public sector human resource management. |
| Keywords: | Sector Switching,Public Sector,Germany |
| JEL: | J45 J69 M5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:122&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Berghmans (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Lola Vallejo (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Benoît Leguet (I4CE-Institute for Climate Economics); Erwann Kerrand (I4CE-Institute for Climate Economics); Andreas Eisl (CEE - Centre d'études européennes et de politique comparée - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, MaxPo - Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies - Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Institut Jacques Delors); Phuc-Vinh Nguyen (Institut Jacques Delors); Thomas Pellerin-Carlin (Institut Jacques Delors); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Il reste moins de 30 ans pour atteindre la neutralité carbone. Cette transformation des économies française et européenne, à peine entamée, est historique. Essentielle pour éviter le chaos climatique, elle doit aussi intégrer d'autres enjeux environnementaux, dont la biodiversité et la pollution de l'air. Elle constitue aussi une opportunité pour moderniser nos industries, créer des emplois de qualité, lutter contre la pauvreté, renforcer la prospérité économique et affirmer notre indépendance politique et énergétique. Si de nombreux pays ont annoncé des objectifs de neutralité carbone en amont de la dernière Conférence internationale sur le climat (COP 26), il manque encore des actes concrets, en France comme ailleurs. Beaucoup de chemins sont possibles pour atteindre la neutralité, il faut les préciser, les clarifier et les proposer au débat public. On ne peut traiter les différentes facettes de la transition écologique séparément les unes des autres. Investissements publics comme privés, changements de modes de vie, reconfiguration des espaces urbains, nouveau pacte social, formation des travailleurs, innovations, modification des incitations économiques et production d'énergies nouvelles devront ainsi être appréhendés conjointement pour apporter une réponse systémique et relever le défi climatique. Certains chantiers sont déjà ouverts : 2 % du PIB Français sont déjà consacrés à des investissements favorables au climat, l'Union européenne déploie un Pacte vert, les rénovations des bâtiments, productions d'énergies renouvelables et de véhicules électriques se développent. La Convention citoyenne pour le climat a démontré que ce mode de démocratie participative permet d'aboutir à des propositions concrètes, partiellement reprises dans la loi Climat et Résilience promulguée en 2021. Le plan France Relance permet d'apporter 30 milliards d'euros pour la transition écologique, mais sur une période limitée à deux ans. France 2030 donne de la prévisibilité aux financements de certaines filières innovantes. Dans ce Policy Brief, nous recensons les éléments structurants pour lesquels nous attendons des propositions concrètes de chaque candidat et de chaque famille politique. Sur le climat, tout projet politique peut être proposé aux Français, mais chaque projet politique doit être concrétisé dans une programmation pluriannuelle des investissements publics. Car si l'investissement ne fait pas tout, il est le point nodal d'expression des choix politiques et permet de mieux juger, au-delà des discours, du contenu réel des propositions. |
| Date: | 2021–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03483383&r= |
| By: | Canes-Wrone, Brandice; Ponce de Leon, Christian; Thieme, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | A longstanding question is whether policy uncertainty reduces private fixed investment in developing democracies. Yet studying the question empirically has proven challenging given that economic activity can cause as well as result from policy uncertainty. We investigate this issue within the context of electoral business cycles, building on research that suggests elections provide an exogenous source of policy uncertainty. As a central part of this analysis, which involves four decades of data from 57 developing democracies, we examine how institutional constraints moderate the relationship. Three main findings emerge. First, on average, elections are associated with a decline in private fixed investment. Second, however, this effect varies according to the level of institutional constraints; as they increase, the electoral cycle becomes less pronounced, including in specifications that account for the potential endogeneity of the institutions. Third, the effects are larger and more robust in systems with fixed elections. |
| Date: | 2022–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:126553&r= |
| By: | David Lagakos; Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael E. Waugh |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build and analyze a dynamic general-equilibrium model of migration that features a rich set of migration motives. We estimate the model to replicate the results of a field experiment that subsidized seasonal migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in migration and consumption. We show that the welfare gains from migration subsidies come from providing better insurance for vulnerable rural households rather than correcting spatial misallocation by relaxing credit constraints for those with high productivity in urban areas that are stuck in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Risk; Insurance; Rural-urban gaps; Field experiment; Rural-urban migration; Spatial misallocation |
| JEL: | J61 R23 O11 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93606&r= |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Reinhold Kesler |
| Abstract: | Since 2010, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft (GAFAM) have acquired more than 400 companies. Competition authorities did not scrutinize most of these transactions and blocked none. This raised concerns that GAFAM acquisitions target potential competitors yet fly under the radar of current merger control due to the features of the digital economy. We empirically study the competitive effects of big tech acquisitions on competitors in a relevant online market. We identify acquisitions by GAFAM involving apps from 2015 to 2019, matching these to a comprehensive database covering apps available in the Google Play Store. We find that competing apps tend to innovate less following an acquisition by GAFAM, while there seems to be no impact on prices and privacy-sensitive permissions of competing apps. Additionally, we find evidence that affected developers reallocate innovation efforts to unaffected apps and that affected markets experience less entry post-acquisition. |
| Keywords: | Mergers and acquisitions, digital markets, GAFAM, apps, innovation, privacy, event study |
| JEL: | K21 L41 L86 G34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1987&r= |
| By: | Orville Jose C. Solon (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Renato E. Reside Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Joy V. Abrenica (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Agustin L. Arcenas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni C. Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Carlo Irwin A. Panelo (University of the Philippines College of Medicine) |
| Abstract: | No abstract |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202006&r= |
| By: | Ochenge, Rogers |
| Abstract: | This paper uses annual data from Kenyan banks over the 2010-2020 period to empirically analyze the link between diversification (non-interest income) and bank performance. Using dynamic panel regressions, the study finds that banks which diversify (functionally) their sources of revenues tend to be more profitable and financially stable. Importantly, the study finds that reliance on non-interest revenue sources acts as an economically important shock absorber in times of declining profits such as witnessed in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. From a policy perspective, these results encourage banks to leverage on new technologies to create non-traditional products whose operating marginal costs are small. This also calls for regulators to remain open to such innovations. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:59&r= |
| By: | Smart, Jenny; Benin, Samuel; Marenya, Paswel; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Smart, Francis |
| Abstract: | To help better understand the linkages between public investments and maize productivity within the broader cereals sector, this study estimates the effect of public spending in different sectors (e.g., agriculture, infrastructure, health, education, social protection, and defense) on the area harvested and yield of maize and other major cereals (wheat, rice, sorghum, and millet). The data used are compiled from multiple sources, resulting in a national-level panel dataset of 81 maize-producing countries from 1980 to 2015. We estimate a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR), consisting of eight equations (four for area shares and four for yields for each maize, wheat, rice, and millet/sorghum respectively), with country and year fixed effects and county-specific time trends. We find government expenditure (GE) on agriculture for example has a positive effect on area harvested for rice and sorghum/millet, a negative effect on area harvested for maize and wheat, and a positive effect on maize, wheat, and rice yields. GE on the social sector (education, health, and social protection) has mixed effects on area harvested for maize, wheat, and rice, but negative effects on their yields. GE on infrastructure (transport and communications) also has mixed effects on area harvested for rice and sorghum/millet, but positive effects on wheat and rice yields. GE on defense has negative effects on wheat and rice yields. CGIAR expenditures have mixed effects on area harvested for wheat (positive) and rice and sorghum/millet (negative), but no effect on yields. On the productivity effects, we find that it seems that GE on agriculture and infrastructure have been beneficial to the different cereals (except sorghum/millet), whereas GE on the social sector and defense have had the opposite effect. Although the role of agricultural research and development in raising cereal productivity and incomes and in reducing poverty is well established, deficiencies in governance, political institutions, and other factors have led to missed opportunities. Complementary investments, such as in rural infrastructure, are critical. |
| Keywords: | WORLD; maize; cereals; public investment; productivity; cross-country panel; Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR); Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2076&r= |
| By: | Hopp, Marvin; Kiess, Johannes; Menz, Wolfgang; Seeliger, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the collective bargaining parties of the German metal and electrical industry, Gesamtmetall and IG Metall, portrayed the Corona crisis in the public sphere. The empirical basis consists of press releases, guest contributions by the chairpersons and press interviews. The framing perspective adopted by this study promises to shed light on how the collective bargaining parties assess the social partnership's ability to act and what priorities they set. Social partnership is also coming under increasing pressure in the core areas of the German economic model. This is also reflected in our analysis: While at first glance there is a coalition of interests in the description of the crisis and the call for state aid to support the economy and safeguard employees, this is characterized by a strong imbalance. It is not just a matter of purely strategic cooperation on specific issues. The employer-side also insists on wage restraint and leaves unanswered union calls for a more farreaching joint assumption of responsibility. Particularly against the backdrop of further effects of the pandemic on the labor market, this weakens the unions' bargaining power and puts further pressure on the institutional pattern of social partnership. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iawsch:322022&r= |
| By: | Martin Baumgaertner (THM Business School Giessen) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that a different communication style of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects stock prices differently. A break in the ECB’s communication from 2016 onwards makes it necessary to adjust the identification of monetary policy surprises in the euro area. By modifying the high-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks in the euro area, I can show that two quantitative easing shocks occur per decision: One during the release and one during the press conference. Although the impact on policy rates is identical, the release window shock seems to have a more pronounced effect on stock prices. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional Monetary Policy, High-Frequency Data, ECB, Communication |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202203&r= |
| By: | Klara Kantova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | With the goal to shed more light on the effectiveness of parental time spent with their children, I estimate the causal relationship between parental involvement and education outcomes of children. My research is the first which examines the effect of parental time in terms of the engagement in child´s everyday life. Moreover, I improve the existing literature by including the characteristics of children as well as parents. To estimate causal treatment effects, I use a simple logistic regression along with a subclassification on the propensity score. By subclassification, the systematic differences in baseline characteristics are eliminated. The education outcome is represented by a binary variable denoting whether the respondent completed high school or not. Completing high school improves person´s economic selfsufficiency and civic engagement. The results indicate higher probability of graduating from high school with higher parental involvement. Moreover, the probability decreases when child disobeys his or her parent. Most importantly, the results suggest that the expected probability of completing high school decreases with more strict parental behavior. |
| Keywords: | Education, Children, Family, Parental Involvement |
| JEL: | I21 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2022_01&r= |
| By: | Fernando Aragon; Diego Restuccia; Juan Pablo Rud |
| Abstract: | We assess the extent and cost of misallocation in agriculture in less-developed countries comparing the analysis at the plot and farm levels. Using detailed data from Uganda, we show that the plot-level analysis leads to extremely large estimates of reallocation gains, even after adjusting for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. These results reflect two empirical limitations of the plot as unit of analysis: excess measurement error and near constant returns to scale production estimates. We find limited evidence of substantial measurement error at the farm level. |
| Keywords: | plot, farm, misallocation, measurement error, agriculture, distortions. |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-718&r= |
| By: | Donatella Gatti (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-03534136&r= |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Maruyama, Eduardo; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Ce document cherche à intégrer deux typologies spatiales existantes pour mieux comprendre les principaux obstacles et contraintes à la sécurité alimentaire et aux moyens de subsistance viables des agriculteurs au Burkina Faso. L’objectif principal de cette étude est précisément d'identifier et localiser les différents goulots d'étranglement qui empêchent une pleine réalisation du potentiel agricole de chaque zone tout en améliorant les résultats nutritionnels finaux de la population. |
| Keywords: | BURKINA FASO, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, poverty, livelihoods, nutrition, agricultural production, spatial typologies, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:farmpn:1&r= |
| By: | Mariacristina De Nardi (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London and University of Cambridge); John Bailey Jones (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rory McGee (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses. Our estimates imply that while medical expenses are an important driver of the savings of middle-income singles, bequest motives matter for couples and high-income singles, and generate transfers to non-spousal heirs whenever a household mem-ber dies. The interaction of medical expenses and bequest motives is a crucial determinant of savings for all retirees. Hence, to understand savings, it is important to model household structure, medical expenses, and bequest motives. |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/12&r= |
| By: | Edita A, Tan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper puts together the very alarming poor state of the Philippines education system from basic to higher education based on recent available data from international and local sources. It points to the central role of universities as producers of the principal learning inputs for all levels. Considering the poor state of higher education with only a handful of high quality universities that produce a very small output of graduates with advanced degree especially in STEM fields, the paper proposes a massive scholarship program for advanced degrees to strengthen and expand the country's ten best universities. They would be the seed to strengthen other universities and the other institutions. |
| Keywords: | Philippines; education |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202101&r= |
| By: | Avula, Rasmi; Menon, Purnima; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Constantinides, Shilpa; Kohli, Neha |
| Abstract: | India comprises one-sixth of the world’s population and one-third of the global burden of undernutrition. Between 2006 and 2016, India made progress in reducing stunting among children below five years; the progress, however, has not been uniform across all its states (Menon et al. 2018). There are interstate differences in stunting reduction despite a common national policy framework for nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive programs. Given the paucity of insights on what factors drive successful change in nutritional outcomes such as stunting at the state level in India, we conducted studies in the four states of Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu. In this report, we document the story of change in Tamil Nadu, which is one of the exemplary states in India. With a long history of nutrition and health reforms, it stands out as a leader in social development. We aimed to update prior work on Tamil Nadu to assess more recent changes in nutritional outcomes, determinants, and coverage of interventions. Our key goals were to: 1) examine changes in child stunting, known determinants of stunting and key health and nutrition interventions between 1992 and 2016; 2) assess the contribution of diverse determinants and intervention coverage changes to the changes in stunting between 2006 and 2016; and (3) interpret the changes in the context of policies, programs, and other changes in the state. |
| Keywords: | INDIA, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, child stunting, children, nutrition, child nutrition |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshrs:15&r= |
| By: | Priit Vahter; Maaja Vadi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the dynamic nature of complementarities between technological and organizational innovation at firms. Using Spanish firm level panel data (PITEC) over period 2008-2016, it investigates how the formation, keeping and ending of the joint adoption of these two core types of innovation is associated with firm performance. In the case of the general static test of complementarities we find no evidence of complementarities. However, once we focus on the analysis of within-firm changes in the complementarity bundle of innovation types, we observe clear evidence that some sequential as well as simultaneous strategy switches towards combining technological and organizational novelties are associated with significant performance premia at firms. Our findings point out the key role of technological innovation in these complementarities. We find evidence of sequential complementarity only when organizational innovation is added to the already existing technological innovation at the firm, not when organizational innovation is added as first component before technological innovation. In the case of dissolving the complementarity bundle of innovation types, the key disadvantage for the firm is related to dropping the technological innovation. Giving up only organizational innovation while keeping the technological innovation appears to have no negative effect, on average, on firm performance. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation, organizational innovation, complementarities, sequential complementarity |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:138&r= |
| By: | Stefanie Huber (University of Amsterdam); Tobias Schmidt (Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Department) |
| Abstract: | Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and persistent over time, with homeownership rates ranging from 44% in Switzerland to 83% in Spain. This paper inves- tigates whether cultures—defined as behavioral attitudes passed across generations—may value homeownership differently, and could thus be a driving demand factor of the home- ownership decision. To isolate the effect of cultural preferences regarding homeownership from the impact of other economic factors, we investigate second-generation immigrants’ homeownership decisions in the United States between 1994 and 2017. Our findings in- dicate that cultural preferences for homeownership are persistent, transmitted between generations, and substantially influence the rent-versus-buy decision. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets, Homeownership Rates, Cross-Country Heterogeneity, Cultural Transmission, Household Housing decisions |
| JEL: | G11 G40 R21 Z10 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220090&r= |
| By: | Rashid Javed (Université de Pau); Mazhar Mughal (Pau Business School) |
| Abstract: | Using data from two representative Demographic and Health Surveys, we examine the change in son preference over the past three decades and its effects on Pakistani women's fertility. We analyse a number of indicators and employ different empirical methods to come up with strong and persistent evidence for both the revealed and stated preference for sons. This disproportionate preference for boys is visible in increasing desired sex ratio and worsening sex ratio at last birth. Reliance over differential birth-stopping has significantly increased over time as couples are more likely to stop childbearing once the desired number of boys is achieved. |
| Keywords: | Son preference,Fertility,parity progression,Pakistan D13 |
| Date: | 2021–12–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03502510&r= |
| By: | Cosmin Butura (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Starting with the end of 2019, and so far, the pandemic challenged by the SARS-COV-2 virus called popular Corona Virus, has produced positive and negative effects from the perspective of different areas. If we are heading for the environment, we notice that statistics have shown a substantial increase in the ozone layer; The nature breathed and the air was cleaner, which was considered a positive effect. In the field of HORECA, hundreds of restaurants, cafes, bars, clubs and hotels closed, employers have to dismiss employees because of the long period of restrictions, so it is understood that the generated effect was negative. Also, in the social environment, education was under restrictions, pupils and students having to attend courses through online platforms, thus reducing inter-human socialization. However, not all the effects of the pandemic were visible to society and the press. During the emergency state, the population was blocked in housing, but this political action took into account the fact that every family is different in its own way? I therefore analyze the effects of COVID-19 pandemic among less perfect families from the perspective of forensics. Whether we accept or not, the idea of domestic violence is clearly described by annual statistics both at national and international level. |
| Keywords: | family, violence, forensics, indices, factors, pandemic, virus |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0111&r= |
| By: | Carmona, Julio (University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has changed dramatically our lives. Most economic analysis have focused on its short run effects. However, its persistence could raise concerns about its long-run consequences. This is, unfortunately, the case for many emergent countries suffering endemic diseases. To illustrate to our undergraduate students the important consequences of persistent infectious diseases, I couple the standard Solow model, taught in any introductory course to economic growth, with a simple model of persistent diseases, the so called SIS model. Additionally, this will also illustrate the usefulness of the well known Lyapunov theorem, an essential tool for the convergence analysis in many dynamical systems. |
| Keywords: | SIS Model; Solow Model; Lyapunov Theorem |
| JEL: | E00 I15 O40 |
| Date: | 2022–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:qmetal:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Cavaglia, Chiara; Etheridge, Ben |
| Abstract: | Across the developed world, employment has polarized clearly by occupation, but changes to the wage structure have been harder to interpret. We examine changes to the wage structure in the UK and Germany, two countries with apparently very different trends. Using panel data, we argue that changes to quality-adjusted prices for occupations grouped by predominant tasks correlate strongly with employment growth in both countries, consistently with task-based changes to labour demand. The gap between price and average wage changes is strongest in top (knowledge) jobs, implying that the average quality of these workers has declined over time. We obtain further direct evidence on changes to worker quality using rich data on individual characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive ability; Height; Job polarization; Roy model; Task prices |
| JEL: | J20 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105819&r= |
| By: | Oyono, Phil René |
| Abstract: | Countries of the global South have rich natural ecosystems, but many poor people. Africa south of the Sahara, for example, contains about half of the earth’s uncultivated land. Forests cover approximately 22 percent of Latin America. In Central Asian countries, overall pastureland was estimated, 10 years ago, at about half of the total land area (ADB 2010). Four of the world’s 10 largest lakes and 7 of the 10 rivers with the largest catchment areas — including the Amazon, Parana, Nile, Congo, and Niger rivers — are in the global South. These examples represent a small sample of the richness of these natural ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, poverty, tenure security, governance, land governance, landscape, tenure, sciences, policies, rural population, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1286379982&r= |
| By: | Gara Afonso; Lorie Logan; Antoine Martin; Will Riordan; Patricia Zobel |
| Abstract: | In a series of four posts, we review key elements of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy implementation framework. The framework has changed markedly in the last two decades. Prior to the global financial crisis, the Fed used a system of scarce reserves and fine-tuned the supply of reserves to maintain rate control. However, since then, the Fed has operated in a floor system, where active management of the supply of reserves no longer plays a role in rate control, but rather the Fed’s administered rates influence the federal funds rate. In this first post, we discuss the salient features of the implementation framework in a stylized way. |
| Keywords: | MPI; monetary policy implementation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93610&r= |
| By: | Gerba, Eddie (Bank of England); Katsoulis, Petros (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of banking regulation (Basel III) on financial market dynamics using the repo market as an important case study. To this end, we use unique proprietary data sets from the Bank of England to examine the individual and joint impact of leverage, capital and liquidity coverage ratios on participants’ trading in all collateral segments of the UK repo market. We find non-uniform effects across ratios and participants and non-linear effects across time. For instance, we find that the leverage ratio induces participants to charge lower (higher) interest margins on repo (reverse repo) trades that are non-nettable compared to the nettable ones. Second,we document a change in market microstructure under the new regulatory regime. Specifically, we evidence a substitution effect of banks’ long-term repo borrowing backed by gilts from dealers to investment funds which can be fragile during times of stress. Likewise, we find an increasing prominence of central counterparties. Third, we find evidence that participants who are jointly constrained by multiple ratios and closer to the regulatory thresholds during times of stress reduce their activity to a greater extent than those that are constrained by a single ratio or not constrained, with implications for market liquidity. |
| Keywords: | Banking regulation; repo market; market microstructure; liquidity; monetary policy transmission |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G11 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0954&r= |
| By: | Liu, Anyu (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | In the globalization era, many products in the tourism industry are imported from other economies; whereas other products may be exported as intermediates to other economies. Researchers have assessed the economic impact of tourism for more than 40 years, but have shed little light on the economic impact on economies in the global value chain. To fill this gap, this analysis used the multiregional input–output table with 35 industries and 63 economies to comprehensively examine the economic contribution of tourism to Thailand as well as to the global economy. Findings suggest that tourism in Thailand generates significant economic impact on output and value added. The industry has stronger intra-spillover and linkage with domestic industries, particularly downstream industries, and weaker connections with industries in other economies in the global supply chain. The multiregional input–output model also reveals that it can measure the export performance of the industry more accurately than the traditional input–output model. Findings generate comprehensive empirical results for destinations and regional organizations to more accurately strategize tourism or regional tourism development plans. |
| Keywords: | multiregional input–output model; global value chain; economic impact; tourism development |
| JEL: | R15 Z32 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0646&r= |
| By: | Civetta, Andrés Martín; Mauro, Lucía Mercedes; Graña, Fernando Manuel |
| Abstract: | Argentina es uno de los países líderes de Latinoamérica en el sector automotriz, observándose cierta especialización relativa en el segmento de fabricación de pick ups. En este artículo buscamos profundizar el estudio de las capacidades tecnológicas del segmento de pick ups en Argentina y su posibilidad de liderar el crecimiento de la industria automotriz nacional. A lo largo de su vida las empresas acumulan conocimientos y experiencias que les permiten introducir innovaciones en sus procesos productivos ante cambios en el entorno. A partir de una investigación cualitativa, analizamos los activos físicos acumulados en el sector, los activos intangibles y las vinculaciones entre empresas. Los principales resultados indican que el segmento de pick ups ha acumulado las capacidades y conocimientos necesarios para su consolidación y expansión como núcleo productivo de Argentina para la región. |
| Keywords: | Industria Automotriz; Capacidad de Producción; Tecnología; |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3582&r= |
| By: | Bertay, Ata (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Carreño Bustos, José (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Huizinga, Harry (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Uras, Burak (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Vellekoop, N. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | finance wage premium; wage profile; allocation of workers |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e3543110-e75d-4749-b4ee-2fbd67a124d9&r= |
| By: | Cirera, Laia; Castelló, Judit Vall; Brew, Joe; Saúte, Francisco; Sicuri, Elisa |
| Abstract: | Despite the significant improvements achieved over the last ten years, primary education attainment in Mozambique is still low. Potential reasons acting from the demand perspective include ill health, among other factors. In Mozambique, ill health is still largely linked to malaria, which is a leading cause of outpatient contacts, hospital admissions and death, particularly among under-five and school-aged children. Despite this, in Mozambique and more generally, in malaria endemic countries, the identification and measurement of how improved malaria indicators may contribute to better school outcomes remains largely unknown. In particular, there is a low understanding of the extent to which better health translates immediately into school indicators, such as absenteeism and grades. In this study, we exploit the first year of a malaria elimination initiative implemented in Magude district (Southern Mozambique) that started in 2015, as a quasi-experiment to estimate the impact of malaria on selected primary school outcomes. While malaria was not eliminated, its incidence drastically dropped. We use as control a neighbouring district (Manhiça) with similar socio-economic and epidemiological characteristics. By employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, we examine whether the positive health shock translated into improved school outcomes. Using information from school registers, we generated a dataset on school attendance and grades for 9,848 primary-school students from 9 schools (4 in the treated district and 5 in the control district). In our main specification, a repeated cross-section analysis, we find that the elimination initiative led to a 28% decrease in school absenteeism and a 2% increase in students’ grades. Our results are robust across different specifications, including a panel DiD individual fixed effects estimate on a sub-sample of students. These findings provide evidence on the negative impact of malaria on primary education attainment and suggest remarkable economic benefits consequent to its elimination. |
| Keywords: | difference-in-differences; human capital; Malaria; Mozambique; primary education |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113334&r= |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christine Farquharson (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sonya Krutikova (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Angus Phimister (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Adam Salisbury (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Almudena Sevilla (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | On 20 March 2020, in response to rapidly escalating case numbers of COVID-19, English schools closed their gates to all but the children of essential workers and those children deemed most vulnerable. This decision was largely without precedent, and ushered in a period of home learning that schools, parents and pupils had little time to prepare for. This situation of nationwide closures continued until 1 June 2020, when schools began a phased reopening that prioritised children in Reception, Year 1, Year 6, Year 10 and Year 12. However, most reopening decisions were left to the discretion of the schools themselves, which created substantial variation in the school reopening experiences of different children. This report analyses how these differences in school reopenings affected the learning experiences of English school children. To examine this, we leverage a unique panel of data, allowing us to observe how learning changed between April/May and June/July for around 650 school-aged children in England.[1] Crucially, the panel means that we observe children at two important points: first during the full national closure phase (29 April to 18 May) and then again during the phase of partial reopenings (26 June to 20 July). This allows us to examine how learning experiences changed for the same individual children, as they faced markedly different school reopening policies and changes in school provisions. In particular, we examine how the learning experiences changed for children who were offered the chance to go to back school versus those who were not, and whether any benefits were confined to the children who actually took up the offer to return to the classroom. We also examine to what extent changes in learning time varied between children from different backgrounds, and whether these changes increased or offset previous inequalities. Finally, we examine how school learning provisions changed in response to school reopenings, to probe the extent to which there is a trade-off between in-school and remote provisions. These questions are all particularly relevant now, given the UK is going through another phase of nationwide school closures. Our answers to them reveal important lessons for how the school reopening process should be managed this time around, and which groups of children government should be particularly mindful of. Video Key findings There is little evidence that pupils ‘settled in’ to home learning. Between wave 1 (April/May) and wave 2 (June/July), total learning time fell from 4 hours 10 minutes a day to 4 hours a day for primary school students and from 4 hours 35 minutes a day to 4 hours 15 minutes a day for secondary school pupils. Both of these are significantly below pre-pandemic levels, when primary school children spent around 6 hours a day on learning and secondary school children around 6½ hours a day. School reopenings helped to protect total learning time. Pupils who returned to school, at least part-time, in June/July saw their learning time rise. Primary school children who returned to school spent around 3 hours and 15 minutes at school on average, but cut back their other learning activities by much less than this. The overall result was that the children who returned to school benefited not just from a higher quality of learning time, but also a higher quantity: their daily learning time rose by over an hour compared with April/May. Pupils who were not prioritised for school reopenings saw their learning time fall further. At primary school, children who were not offered the chance to go back to school saw their learning time fall by around 40 minutes compared with their own learning time in April/May. At secondary school, the falls were even larger, at around 50 minutes a day. So in June/July, secondary school pupils who were not given the chance to return to school were spending around 20% less time on learning than in April/May and almost 50% less time than before the pandemic. Pupils who were not given the chance to go back to school at all saw their learning time fall by much more than their peers who chose to remain at home. This suggests that pupils benefited from being prioritised to return to school, even when they did not take up the offer. These pupils did not receive substantially better learning resources, but parents and children might have been encouraged to focus on home learning to keep up with peers in the classroom. School reopenings We find no evidence that schools attended by better-off pupils were more likely to reopen. Around three-quarters of those in ‘priority’ years (in our sample, Reception and Years 1 and 10) were offered the chance to return to in-person schooling in June/July. Among other year groups, a quarter of pupils had the chance to go back to school. Schools were more likely to be open as time passed. But, encouragingly, we find that schools attended by less well-off children were no less likely to open last June/July. However, better-off parents were more likely to take up their school’s offer and send their children back. We find that only around half of primary school pupils who were given the opportunity to return to school (and three-quarters of Year 10s) had at least some in-person schooling in June/July. These decisions seem likely to reinforce existing inequalities: a child whose family was near the top of the pre-COVID equivalised earnings distribution (at the 90th percentile) was 22 percentage points more likely to take up the offer than a child whose family was near the bottom of the earnings distribution (10th percentile); most of this gap remains even when controlling for a wide range of other characteristics. We find that the primary reasons for parents’ caution relate to the health impacts of returning to school; however, disadvantaged families also cited a reluctance for their children to be the first ones to return to school as well as practical issues with transport. Schools seemed to be able to manage a concurrent programme of in-person and remote learning. In classes that reopened, schools did not pull back on their provision of active resources such as online classes. Some of these schools also increased their passive home learning provisions (e.g. home learning packs). Inequalities School reopenings supported overall learning time. But the reluctance of some poorer families to send their children to school led to increased inequalities between poorer and richer children. Pupils from less well-off families were just as likely as their more advantaged peers to be offered the chance to return to school. However, they were substantially less likely to take up this offer. Even among those who returned to the classroom, richer children increased their learning time by more than their more disadvantaged peers. Since pupils from disadvantaged families were also less likely to have the home and school resources to make home learning effective, there is a real risk that an optional return to school would widen inequalities within a school year. By contrast, richer pupils who were not prioritised to return to school saw their learning time fall to levels similar to those of their poorer peers – reducing overall inequalities, but at the considerable cost of a worse learning experience for all. Policy implications Central government had quite a bit of control over the return to school. While press coverage at the time highlighted the schools and local authorities going against the Department for Education’s guidance on reopening, in practice the partial reopening in June/July 2020 closely followed the national guidance, with prioritised year groups much more likely to be offered the chance to return. A phased programme of reopenings, with certain year groups prioritised, is likely to increase the inequalities between children of different ages. This is true even if not all pupils choose to return, since we find evidence that school reopenings protected learning time even among pupils who chose not to return to the classroom. Among students whose class reopened, allowing families to opt out of attending likely increased inequalities between poorer and richer students in the same year group. In June/July, fines for unexcused absences were suspended so that parents could choose whether or not to send their children back. If policymakers want to go down a similar route when reopening schools this spring, they should be aware of the undesirable consequences for inequalities. At a minimum, policymakers should engage consistently and proactively with local authorities, schools and families themselves to address concerns about the return to school. Among poorer families, the primary concerns are health risks to the child, health risks to the wider family and a reluctance to be the first to go back. Public health messaging about the risks of COVID-19 for children should be carefully communicated. Careful thought also needs to be given to provision for children living with high-risk family members. The fact that the vaccination roll-out is prioritising many of the most vulnerable should help mitigate some of these concerns. [1] We focus on children in Reception and Years 1, 4, 5, 8, 9 and 10. |
| Date: | 2021–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/4&r= |
| By: | Jacopo Bonchi (Department of Economics and Finance and School of European Political Economy, LUISS Guido Carli); Salvatore Nisticò (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Using a tractable New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, we analyze the interplay between households' heterogeneity and rational bubbles, and their normative implications for monetary policy. Households are infinitely-lived and heterogeneous because of two sources of idiosyncratic uncertainty, which makes them stochastically cycle in and out of segmented asset markets, and in and out of employment. We show that bubbles can emerge in equilibrium despite the fact that households are infinitely lived, because of the structural heterogeneity that affects their activity in asset and labor markets. The elasticity of an endogenous labor supply, the heterogeneity in asset-market participation and the level of long-run monopolistic distortions are shown to affect the size of equilibrium bubbles and their cyclical implications. We also show that a central bank concerned with social welfare faces an additional tradeoff implied by bubbly fluctuations which makes, in general, strict inflation targeting a suboptimal monetary-policy regime. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Rational bubbles, Optimal monetary policy, HANK |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:5/22&r= |
| By: | Banerjee, Sudipto (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Dimri, Aditi (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Grievance redress mechanism (GRM) is an essential component of the consumer protection framework in the financial sector. Its presence and performance can have far-reaching effects on the participation of consumers in the financial sector. Using GRM a consumer can seek expeditious and fair remedy against the wrongs of the financial service providers. While there are various forms of GRM (both judicial and non-judicial), in this paper, we study the design of a non-judicial redress agency. Using first principles we study the design of a financial redress agency by focusing on the critical organisational decisions of - manner of establishment, governance, funding, dispute resolution processes, and performance evaluation. We build on two strands of literature, one studying the GRM design at a conceptual principles level and the other providing practical guidance for setting up a redress agency. Further, the paper analyses four different redress agencies, namely, - Financial Ombudsman Services Scheme in the U.K., Kifid in the Netherlands, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the U.S., and Insurance and Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme in New Zealand. The paper contributes by assimilating all the varied resources to map principles, decisions, and case studies to provide an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to designing a GRM for a varied readership. |
| Keywords: | GRM ; redress agency ; financial ombudsman ; dispute resolution ; consumer protection in finance |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/366&r= |
| By: | K. C. Sanjeevani Perera |
| Abstract: | This study attempted to analyze whether there is a relationship between the performance of drivers and the number of overtime hours worked by them. The number of overtime hours worked by the drivers in the pool for the years 2017 and 2018 were extracted from the overtime registers and feedback received on the performance of drivers from staff members who frequently traveled in the University vehicles were used for this study. The overall performance of a driver was decided by taking the aggregate of marks received by him for the traits: skillfulness, patience, responsibility, customer service and care for the vehicle. The type of vehicle the driver is assigned for is also taken into account in the analysis of this study. The study revealed that there is no significant relationship between the performance of the drivers and the number of overtime hours worked by them but the type of vehicle and the condition of the vehicle affects attracting long journeys to them which enable them to earn more overtime hours. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15447&r= |
| By: | Maximilien Germain (EDF - EDF, LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistiques et Modélisations - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris, EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF, EDF R&D OSIRIS - Optimisation, Simulation, Risque et Statistiques pour les Marchés de l’Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF); Mathieu Laurière (ORFE - Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering - Princeton University, School of Engineering and Applied Science); Huyên Pham (LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistiques et Modélisations - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF - CREST - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Xavier Warin (EDF - EDF, FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF - CREST - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF, EDF R&D OSIRIS - Optimisation, Simulation, Risque et Statistiques pour les Marchés de l’Energie - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF) |
| Abstract: | Machine learning methods for solving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) are hot topical issues, and different algorithms proposed in the literature show efficient numerical approximation in high dimension. In this paper, we introduce a class of PDEs that are invariant to permutations, and called symmetric PDEs. Such problems are widespread, ranging from cosmology to quantum mechanics, and option pricing/hedging in multi-asset market with exchangeable payoff. Our main application comes actually from the particles approximation of mean-field control problems. We design deep learning algorithms based on certain types of neural networks, named PointNet and DeepSet (and their associated derivative networks), for computing simultaneously an approximation of the solution and its gradient to symmetric PDEs. We illustrate the performance and accuracy of the PointNet/DeepSet networks compared to classical feedforward ones, and provide several numerical results of our algorithm for the examples of a mean-field systemic risk, mean-variance problem and a min/max linear quadratic McKean-Vlasov control problem. |
| Keywords: | Permutation-invariant PDEs,symmetric neural networks,exchangeability,deep backward scheme,mean-field control |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03154116&r= |
| By: | Stenberg, Anders (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Evaluations of adults in formal education (AE) are typically based on earnings measured 5-10 years from program start. This paper presents estimated returns up to 24 years after program start, and explore results for 15 cohorts of first-time registered in AE 1994-2008 with at least a 10-year follow-up period. For college level AE, results indicate substantially higher payoff in absolute terms after 24 years compared with after 10 years, but there is no support that multiplier effects increase the returns to AE over time. There is some, albeit modest, evidence of human capital depreciation for high school level AE. |
| Keywords: | Adult education; Self-selection; Propensity score matching |
| JEL: | H30 H52 I20 J24 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2022_001&r= |
| By: | Patricia Arttachariya (Institute of International Studies, Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok) |
| Abstract: | The use of plastic, in many forms, is ubiquitous. Plastic is found in many of our day-to-day products and even though plastic has several useful applications, plastic waste has a detrimental impact on the environment and is life-threatening to humans, animals, and many marine species. The main aim of this exploratory study is to investigate the influence of internal (environmental knowledge and concern), and external factors (interpersonal influence and media) on Gen Y Thai consumers’ environmental attitude and behavior relating to plastic pollution. Gen Y consumers are the focus of this study because they account for nearly a third of Thailand's population with high income and spending potential. A total of 550 questionnaires were distributed to Gen Y consumers in 7 areas in the Central Business District of Bangkok, of which 396 were considered valid and used for the analysis. Three hypotheses posited in the study were tested using Simple Regression analysis. The findings showed that both external factors (environmental knowledge and environmental concern) as well as internal factors (interpersonal influence and media) influenced environmental attitude. Environment attitude, in turn, was found to have a significant influence on behavior related to plastic pollution. The findings provide several useful suggestions for policymakers, marketers, and the general public toward inculcating better waste management practices in the Thai context. |
| Keywords: | Plastic pollution, Generation Y, Environmental Concern, Interpersonal Influence |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0063&r= |
| By: | Aline Bütikofer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen); Fanny Landaud (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Katrine Loken (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | Although many students suffer from anxiety and depression, and often identify school pressure and concerns about their futures as the main reasons for their worries, little is known about the consequences of a selective school environment on students’ mental health. Using a regression discontinuity analysis in the largest Norwegian cities, we show that eligibility to enroll in a more selective high school increases the probability of enrollment in higher education and decreases the probability of diagnosis or treatment of psychological problems. We provide suggestive evidence that changes in both teacher and peers’ characteristics are likely drivers of these effects. |
| Date: | 2021–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/34&r= |
| By: | Shang-Jin Wei; Yinxi Xie |
| Abstract: | While two strands of the literature suggest that PPI inflation, in addition to or instead of CPI inflation, should be a targeting variable in a monetary policy rule, the distinction between the two is only important when they do not co-move strongly. Our first contribution is to document that their correlation has indeed fallen substantially since the start of this century. Our second contribution is to propose a model to understand this divergence based on expanding global supply chains. Our theory produces additional predictions that are also confirmed in the data. As such changes are structural rather than temporary, the standard monetary policy rule that does not target the PPI inflation may have become increasingly problematic. |
| Keywords: | Inflation and prices; Inflation targets; International topics; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F11 F12 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-5&r= |
| By: | Xavier Jaravel (Institute for Fiscal Studies and London School of Economics); Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin) |
| Abstract: | We use real-time scanner data in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the drivers of the inflationary spike at the beginning of lockdown and to quantify the impact of high-frequency changes in shopping behaviours and promotions on inflation measurement. Although changes in product-level expenditure shares were unusually high during lockdown, we find that the induced bias in price indices that do not account for expenditure switching is not larger than in prior years. We also document substantial consumer switching towards online shopping and across retailers, but show this was not a key driver of the inflationary spike. In contrast, a reduction in price and quantity promotions was key to driving higher inflation, and lower use of promotions by low-income consumers explains why they experienced moderately lower inflation. Overall, changes in shopping behaviours played only a minor role in driving higher inflation during lockdown; higher prices were the main cause, in particular through a reduced frequency of promotions. |
| Date: | 2020–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/33&r= |
| By: | Kreiss, Alexander; Van Keilegom, Ingrid |
| Abstract: | In epidemics many interesting quantities, like the reproduction number, depend on the incubation period (time from infection to symptom onset) and/or the generation time (time until a new person is infected from another infected person). Therefore, estimation of the distribution of these two quantities is of distinct interest. However, this is a challenging problem since it is normally not possible to obtain precise observations of these two variables. Instead, in the beginning of a pandemic, it is possible to observe for transmission pairs the time of symptom onset for both people as well as a window for infection of the first person (e.g. because of travel to a risk area). In this paper we suggest a simple semi-parametric sieve-estimation method based on Laguerre-Polynomials for estimation of these distributions. We provide detailed theory for consistency and illustrate the finite sample performance for small datasets via a simulation study. |
| Keywords: | Laguerre-Polynomials; semi-parametric estimation; sieve estimation; epidemics; 2016-2021; Horizon 2020 / ERC grant agreement No. 694409. |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113376&r= |
| By: | Chris Belfield (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Jack Britton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Franz Buscha (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lorraine Dearden (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Matt Dickson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Luke Sibieta (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Laura van der Erve (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Anna Vignoles (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Cambridge); Ian Walker (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Lancaster University); Yu Zhu (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Using a large and novel administrative dataset, this paper investigates variation in returns to different higher education ‘degrees’ (subject-institution combinations) in the United Kingdom. Conditioning on a rich set background characteristics, it finds substantial variation in returns, even within subject, across universities with very similar selectivity levels, suggesting degree choices matter a lot for later-life earnings. Selectivity is weakly related to returns through most of the distribution but strongly positively correlated at the top end. Other than selectivity, returns are poorly correlated with observable degree characteristics, which has implications for student choices and the incentives of universities. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/24&r= |
| By: | Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Eva Stulrajterova (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse labour market flows based on data from the Labour Force Survey. This survey enables us to analyse the impact of socio-demographic characteristics on flows between employed, unemployed and inactive stage. Our analysis is based on the period 2005Q1 – 2020Q1 and, also separately on the crises period 2009 – 2010. Education, marital status, or the number of years in the current job are the main factors impacting the flows in case of employed. The higher the educational level and the longer employed, the lower the probability of becoming unemployed. Also, married persons and persons working full-time have lower probability to become unemployed. In case of unemployed or inactive persons, the level of education is also an important factor, as the higher the education the higher the probability of finding a job. Estimation results for the crises years are in general qualitatively similar to results for the whole period. It is mainly the impact of educational level that changes. In case of employed persons, tertiary education significantly increases the probability of remaining employed during crisis times compared to at most secondary education. |
| JEL: | J64 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1083&r= |
| By: | Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Does identification with dominant ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper contributes to the comparative analysis of the role of ethnic background in shaping attitudes towards government's role in reducing income inequalities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, where nearly half-abillion people live and belong to more than sixty ethnic groups. Using a pool of nationallyrepresentative survey data from the five Southeast Asian countries, we first classified the respondents by population dominance of the ethnic groups they claim to belong, and then examine for differences across members of dominant ethnic groups in their preferences for government redistribution. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. No systematic differences in their redistributive preferences are found, however, between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller groups. The results are fairly robust even after accounting for the possible moderating effects of income status, trust in government and in people, subjective social mobility, concerns about social fairness, and views on the importance of fate in one's life. Moreover, the results hold out even in the sub-sample of low-income people for whom economic considerations more than ethnicity are expected to determine their redistributive preferences. Notwithstanding the importance of shared norms or beliefs in aligning he social choices of people with same ethnic or racial background, our results suggest their population sizes, which possibly reflect their relative influence over domestic policies, also matter. |
| Keywords: | Redistribution; ethnic dominance; income inequality; social mobility; trust; Southeast Asia |
| JEL: | H20 H53 I39 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202103&r= |
| By: | Gundert, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Employment is considered an important prerequisite for participation in social life. We examine the question of how a job loss affects an individual’s risk of material deprivation and social exclusion. Moreover, we show how losing one’s job affects individual well-being. We consider both objective as well as subjective indicators, such as perceived social status and individual sense of social belonging." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Haushaltspanel |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202202&r= |
| By: | William Brock; Anastasios Xepapadeas |
| Abstract: | Scientific evidence suggests that anthropogenic impacts on the environment such as land use changes and climate change promote the emergence of infectious diseases in humans. We develop a two-region epidemic-economic (epi-econ) model which unifies short-run disease containment policies with long-run policies which could control the drivers and the severity of infectious diseases. We structure our paper by linking a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with an economic model which includes land use choices for agriculture and climate change. In the SIS model the contact number depends on short-run containment policies (e.g., lockdown, social distancing, vaccination), and the long-run policies affecting land use and the preservation of the natural world, and climate change. Utility in each region is determined by a composite consumption good produced by labor, land devoted to agriculture, and energy. Climate change and land use changes which reduce the natural world have an additional cost in terms of infectious disease since they might increase the contact number in the long run. We provide a deterministic solution as a benchmark and we compare it with outcomes derived under ambiguity associated with important parameters of the epi-econ model and ambiguity aversion. |
| Keywords: | infectious diseases, SIS model, natural world, climate change, containment policy, Nash equilibrium |
| JEL: | I18 Q54 D81 |
| Date: | 2022–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2208&r= |
| By: | Choudhury, Mita (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Datta, Pritam (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | The COVID pandemic imposed dual pressures on state finances. Contraction in revenues was coupled with an increased pressure to expand public spending to counter the adversities of the pandemic. Evidence from 26 states suggest that aggregate revenues fell by about 5 per cent in the pandemic year, 2020-21. Despite this fall, States have maintained a 5 per cent average growth rate of aggregate spending. Public expenditure in social sector grew at a significantly higher rate than economic services. Within social services, health expenditure in 15 selected major states grew at 16 per cent, the highest among all. This rise in health spending has however, come at the cost of expenditures in a number of other important sectors. Expenditures in education and nutrition remained nearly stagnant in the pandemic year. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/369&r= |
| By: | Tetteh, Godsway Korku (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Goedhuys, Micheline (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Konte, Maty (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Barnard College, Columbia University); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Despite the contribution of previous studies to unravel the implications of mobile money in the developing world, the effect of this innovation on an important source of external finance, trade credit, has not been properly accounted for particularly in the informal sector. Using the 2016 FinAccess Household Survey, we investigate the relationship between mobile money adoption and the probability to receive goods and services on credit from suppliers based on a sample of entrepreneurs who operate informal businesses. We further explore the effect of mobile money adoption on the likelihood to offer goods and services on credit to customers. Our estimations suggest that entrepreneurs with mobile money are more likely to receive goods and sesrvices on credit from suppliers. We also find a positive and significant relationship between mobile money adoption and the likelihood to offer goods and services on credit to customers. The evidence supports the promotion of mobile money adoption among entrepreneurs in the informal sector to facilitate access to credit. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Financial Innovation, Mobile Money, Trade Credit |
| JEL: | D14 G21 L26 O16 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021043&r= |
| By: | Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); Wenchao (Michelle) Jin (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Valérie Lechene (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | The share of home-cooked food in the diet of UK households declined from the 1980s. This was contemporaneous with a decline in the market price of ingredients for home cooking relative to ready-to-eat foods. We consider a simple model of food consumption and time use which captures the key driving forces behind these apparently con?icting trends. We show that observed behaviour can be rationalised by the fact that the shadow price of home-cooked food, which accounts for the fact that cooking takes time, has risen relative to the price of ready-to-eat food, due to the increase in the market value of time of secondary earners. We discuss the implications for policies that aim to encourage healthier diets. |
| Date: | 2021–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/14&r= |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Maruyama, Eduardo; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Ce document cherche à intégrer deux typologies spatiales existantes pour mieux comprendre les principaux obstacles et contraintes à la sécurité alimentaire et aux moyens de subsistance viables des agriculteurs au Mali. L’objectif principal de cette étude est précisément d'identifier et de localiser les différents goulots d'étranglement qui empêchent une pleine réalisation du potentiel agricole de chaque zone tout en améliorant les résultats nutritionnels finaux de la population. |
| Keywords: | MALI, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, poverty, livelihoods, nutrition, agricultural production, spatial typologies, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:farmpn:2&r= |
| By: | D'Angeli, Mariagrazia; Marin, Giovanni; Paglialunga, Elena |
| Abstract: | n recent years, there has been rapid development of the literature linking climate change and armed conflicts. Although no conclusionary evidence has been found of a direct link between climate change and armed conflicts, still climate change has been addressed as an important trigger, exacerbating underlying social, economic and institutional conditions and thus resulting in higher risk and magnitude of violent activities. In this context, while more research is needed to further disentangle how climatic changes combine with socio-economic and institutional elements to induce conflicts, an important pathway to be explored is the role that building resilience can play in preventing and/or breaking the negative relationship between climate change and violent activity. In this context, resilience refers to the capacity of a system to come back to its original conditions after a shock and relies on the combination of socioeconomic, institutional and technological dimensions. In our paper we provide empirical evidence on the role played by resilience-building investments in attenuating the emergence of armed conflicts as a consequence of climate-related anomalies and natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:317885&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Yifan Gong (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Todd Stinebrickner (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ralph Stinebrickner (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic ex-pectations data is important for detecting types of violations of Rational Expectations that are not detectable by existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school and then enter the post-college period. Tests of Rational Expectations almost always reject for the in-school period, but the evidence against Rational Expectations is much weaker in the post-college period. |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/01&r= |
| By: | Brian Hill (HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Lloyd |
| Date: | 2021–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03503995&r= |
| By: | Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Orville Jose C. Solon (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Joy V. Abrenica (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Agustin L. Arcenas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni C. Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Aleli D. Kraft (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Renato E. Reside Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | No abstract |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202004&r= |
| By: | Thitithep Sitthiyot |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses serious drawbacks of existing knowledge in macroeconomics and finance in explaining and predicting economic and financial phenomena. Complexity science is proposed as an alternative approach to be used in order to better understand how economy and financial market work. This paper argues that understanding characteristics of complex system could greatly benefit financial analysts, financial regulators, as well as macroeconomic policy makers. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.15294&r= |
| By: | Maureen Were; Kethi Ngoka |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya's foreign trade using quarterly trade data for the period 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. The exploratory analysis shows that growth of Kenya's merchandise exports remained resilient, largely supported by traditional exports of tea and horticultural products. However, the service exports, particularly travel and transport services, were adversely affected. Heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports are observed across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Kenya, Exports, COVID-19, Pandemic |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-8&r= |
| By: | Israel Marques II (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Who supports social policy in settings where institutions are weak? Existing work on social policy preferences focuses on the developed world, where governments can credibly commit to policy, tax evasion is constrained, and governments are accountable. In this paper, I relax these assumptions. I argue that weak accountability under poor institutions allow government officials to expend less effort to collect social policy contributions, decreasing expected revenues.For most, this is akin to a dead-weight cost that saps support for redistribution. For those with a comparative advantage in tax evasion, however, this allows for free-riding on the contributions of others and decreases the costs of social policy. As institutional quality declines and tax evasion becomes easier, individuals with a comparative advantage in tax evasion should therefore be more likely to support redistribution. I test this argument using public opinion data from a survey of 28,000 individuals in 28 post-communist countries. |
| Keywords: | Shadow Economy, Preferences for Redistribution, Public Opinion, Tax Evasion, Comparative Political Economy |
| JEL: | O15 H53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:85/ps/2022&r= |
| By: | Brian Hill (HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mohammed Abdellaoui; Philippe Colo |
| Date: | 2021–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03503996&r= |
| By: | Völker, Richard |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi20:305629&r= |
| By: | Elisa Palagi (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mauro Napoletano (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Andrea Roventini (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Jean-Luc Gaffard (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | We build an agent-based model to study how coordination failures, credit con- straints and unequal access to investment opportunities affect inequality and aggre- gate income dynamics. The economy is populated by households who can invest in alternative projects associated with different productivity growth rates. Access to investment projects also depends on credit availability. The income of each house- hold is determined by the output of the project but also by aggregate demand conditions. We show that aggregate dynamics is affected by income distribution. Moreover, we show that the model features a trickle-up growth dynamics. Redis- tribution towards poorer households raises aggregate demand and is beneficial for the income growth of all agents in the economy. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model is able to reproduce several stylized facts concerning income inequality and social mobility. Finally, we test the impact of redistributive fiscal policies, showing that fiscal policies facilitating access to investment opportunities by poor households have the largest impact in terms of raising long-run aggregate income and decreasing income inequality. Moreover, policy timing is important: fiscal policies that are implemented too late may have no significant effects on in- equality. |
| Keywords: | income inequality,social mobility,credit constraints,coordination failures,effective demand,trickle-up growth,fiscal policy JEL classification: C63,D31,E63,E21 |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03509091&r= |
| By: | Coad, Alex (Waseda Business School); Mathew, Nanditha (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Pugliese, Emanuele (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)) |
| Abstract: | We develop and apply a novel methodology for quantifying the capability development of firms, and putting these capabilities (and hence also the firms) in a hierarchy, that we refer to as their position on the capabilities ladder. Our nestedness algorithm, inspired by biology and network science, defines a capability as complex if it is performed by only a few firms at the upper rungs of the ladder. We analyze balance sheet and innovation data of almost 40,000 Indian firms for the time period 1988-2015, and observe significant nestedness. Lower rungs of the capabilities ladder correspond to basic managerial and production capabilities. Mid-level rungs correspond to internationalization and acquiring absorptive capacity. Higher level rungs are more related to M&A and innovation. ICT capabilities have become more fundamental lower-level rungs on the capabilities ladder in recent years. We find that capability ranking can explain future growth patterns and survival probability of firms, summing up in one number their future potential trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Capabilities, Competences, Complexity, Balance sheet data, Resources |
| JEL: | L2 D2 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021031&r= |
| By: | Luca Fornaro; Federica Romei |
| Abstract: | We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable services. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully beared domestically, however, part of the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap, and implement an excessively tight monetary policy during tradable goodsdriven recoveries. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric shocks, reallocation, monetary policy, international monetary cooperation, inflation, global supply shortages |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1814&r= |
| By: | Laitin, David D; Miguel, Edward; Alrababa'h, Ala'; Bogdanoski, Aleksandar; Grant, Sean; Hoeberling, Katherine; Hyunjung Mo, Cecilia; Moore, Don A; Vazire, Simine; Weinstein, Jeremy; Williamson, Scott |
| Abstract: | While the social sciences have made impressive progress in adopting transparent research practices that facilitate verification, replication, and reuse of materials, the problem of publication bias persists. Bias on the part of peer reviewers and journal editors, as well as the use of outdated research practices by authors, continues to skew literature toward statistically significant effects, many of which may be false positives. To mitigate this bias, we propose a framework to enable authors to report all results efficiently (RARE), with an initial focus on experimental and other prospective empirical social science research that utilizes public study registries. This framework depicts an integrated system that leverages the capacities of existing infrastructure in the form of public registries, institutional review boards, journals, and granting agencies, as well as investigators themselves, to efficiently incentivize full reporting and thereby, improve confidence in social science findings. In addition to increasing access to the results of scientific endeavors, a well-coordinated research ecosystem can prevent scholars from wasting time investigating the same questions in ways that have not worked in the past and reduce wasted funds on the part of granting agencies. |
| Keywords: | file drawer problem, null findings, publication bias, registries, research transparency, Prevention |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt9cq8j822&r= |
| By: | Anna Balestra (CSEA, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Raul Caruso (Department of Economic Policy and CSEA, Universita` Cattolica del Sacro Cuore CESPIC, Catholic University “Our Lady of Good Counsel”) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of EDUMILEX, namely the ratio between investment in education and military expenditure on economic performance, i.e. GDP per capita and labor productivity, using a panel data estimation for 60 countries over the period 2000-2018. The findings highlight a non-linear relationship. In particular, results suggest that a cubic relationship exists between EDUMILEX and economic performance. The value of EDUMILEX computed at the critical value can be considered the target variable for economic policy. Heterogeneity between developed and non-developed has been also investigated. Findings confirm that the effect of EDUMILEX is heterogeneous. Lower values of EDUMILEX are required to increase of economic performance in developed countries compared to non-developed ones. |
| Keywords: | Peace, Education, Military Expenditures, Economic Growth, Development |
| JEL: | H56 H52 O47 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pea:wpaper:1017&r= |
| By: | Nizam MelikÅŸah Demirtas; Orhan Torul |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2021/05&r= |
| By: | Jack Britton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ben Waltmann (Institute for Fiscal Studies and IFS) |
| Abstract: | The ‘curse of dimensionality’ is a common problem in the estimation of dynamic models: as models get more complex, the computational cost of solving these models rises exponentially. Keane and Wolpin (1994) proposed a method for addressing this problem in finite-horizon dynamic discrete choice models by evaluating only a subset of state space points by Monte Carlo integration and interpolating the value of the remainder. This method was widely used in the late 1990s and 2000s but has rarely been used since, as it was found to be unreliable in some settings. In this paper, we develop an improved version of their method that relies on three amendments: systematic sampling, data-guided selection of state space points for Monte Carlo integration, and dispensing with polynomial interpolation when a multicollinearity problem is detected. With these improvements, the Keane and Wolpin (1994) method achieves excellent approximation performance even in a model with a large state space and substantial ex ante heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/13&r= |
| By: | Molly Paterson (Monash University); Jaai Parasnis (Department of Economics, Monash University); Michelle Rendall (Department of Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | The performance of students in numeracy tests reveals gaps based on students’ gender and household income. In this paper, using longitudinal data on Australian children, we show the interrelationship between (i) socioeconomic gaps based on early-life household income, and (ii) the gender gap in numeracy. We find that between Grades 3 to 9, boys have a distinct advantage in numeracy scores over girls, which widens over time. We also find that, by Grade 9, poorer female students are doubly disadvantaged. This disadvantage does not arise because of differences in socioeconomic status between boys and girls but because the effect of a lower socioeconomic background on test scores is significant only for girls. We find that mother’s education and labor force status play an important role in the emergence of gender gaps, at both ends (top and bottom) of the income distribution. We confirm that early life circumstances continue to impact student’s achievement well into adolescence and these exacerbate gender gaps, thus demonstrating the importance of targeted early interventions to address gaps in key skills acquisition for the modern economy. |
| Keywords: | Australia, parental education, household income, numeracy, gender |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2022-02&r= |
| By: | Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ella Johnson-Watts (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Robert Joyce (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Fabien Postel-Vinay (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Peter Spittal (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bristol); Xiaowei Xu (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We develop a measure of labour market opportunities for heterogenous types of worker, exploiting information on their suitability di?erent jobs encoded in historical patterns of worker mobility. We provide a theoretical foundation for our measure, which features naturally in a general random search framework. Our measure is ?exible in the sense that it admits general de?nitions of worker and job heterogeneity, and is easily implementable empirically with data on worker mobility and labour demand. We apply our measure to high-quality data on labour demand in the UK, based on the universe of 104.7 million job adverts posted online from January 2015 to June 2021. We demonstrate the utility of our measure with an analysis of worker prospects throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. First, while the direct impact of lockdown policies was concentrated on relatively few industries, labour demand fell much more broadly. And, as our measure highlights, the full e?ects were broader still because of the disruption to usual career progression, even for those in less-a?ected sectors such as healthcare. Second, despite aggregate labour demand returning to pre-pandemic levels by June 2021, 25% of the workforce faced new job opportunities more than 10% below pre-pandemic levels. This is because of a change in the composition of vacancy postings (towards lower-paying occupations) which our measure of labour market opportunities is sensitive to. Finally, the majority (64%) of unemployed workers faced at least 10% more competition for jobs from unemployed jobseekers than before the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/29&r= |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Kaur, Gurleen (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Rangan, Divy (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Kaur, Amandeep (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the fiscal federalism processes in four countries in the global south - viz., South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Nepal - focussing on their revenue and expenditure assignments and intergovernmental revenue sharing mechanisms. The significance of focussing on federations in global south is that the processes are still evolving in terms of "optimal concurrency" in theexpenditure and revenue assignments; and "revenue sharing" norms. The common feature of all these federations is the vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances emanating from the asymmetric revenue and expenditure assignments and in turn identifying and restating the role of intergovernmental fiscal transfers to arrive at economic convergence across jurisdictions. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:21/363&r= |
| By: | Mel Lorenzo Accad (University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Are new mayors more responsive to disasters than their reelected counterparts? The identification strategy is based on slim vote margin in which new and reelected mayors are found to be as if randomly assigned. We find that with greater storm exposure: new mayors spend more on health sector than reelected mayors. We don’t find stable and statistically significant result in other sectors and in total municipal income or expenditure. |
| Keywords: | election; accountability; disaster response |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H84 O17 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202003&r= |
| By: | Manuela Pedio |
| Abstract: | The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – 2009 has raised the attention of policy-makers and researchers about the interconnectedness among the volatility of the returns of financial assets as a potential source of risk that extends beyond the usual changes in correlations and include transmission channels that operate through the higher order co-moments of returns. In this paper, we investigate whether a newly developed, forward-looking measure of volatility spillover risk based on option implied volatilities shows any predictive power for stock returns. We also compare the predictive performance of this measure with that of the volatility spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2008, 2012), which is based on realized, backward-looking volatilities instead. While both measures show evidence of in-sample predictive power, only the option-implied measure is able to produce out-of-sample forecasts that outperform a simple historical mean benchmark. |
| Keywords: | connectedness, volatility networks, implied volatility, realized volatility, equity return predictability, spillover risk |
| JEL: | G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21154&r= |
| By: | J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X Bikker; J.G.J. Bekooij |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of market forces on competitive behaviour and efficiency in healthcare by investigating the Dutch healthcare insurance reform in 2006. This reform replaced the dual system of public and private insurance with a single compulsory health insurance scheme, in which insurance providers compete for customers in a free market. We measure competition directly from either shifts in market shares, or developments in profits. Using formal tests we find that in each approach a structural break occurs after the reform: competition is significantly higher after 2006 than before. Several robustness tests confirm this outcome. Nevertheless, we find that the health insurance sector is still less competitive than the banking, manufacturing and service industries, and even less competitive than life insurance. |
| Keywords: | (regulated) competition, concentration, healthcare insurance, performance-conduct-structure model, boone-indicator, scale economies |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2104&r= |
| By: | Grohmann, Rafael; Pereira, Gabriel (Aarhus University); Guerra, Ana; Abílio, Ludmila Costhek; Moreschi, Bruno; Jurno, Amanda |
| Abstract: | This article discusses how Brazilian platform workers experience and respond to platform scams through three case studies. Drawing from digital ethnographic research, vlogs/interviews of workers, and literature review, we argue for a conceptualization of “platform scam” that focuses on multiple forms of platform dishonesty and uncertainty. We characterize scam as a structuring element of the algorithmic management enacted by platform labor. The first case engages with when platforms scam workers by discussing Uber drivers’ experiences with the illusive surge pricing. The second case discusses when workers (have to) scam platforms by focusing on Amazon Mechanical Turk microworkers’ experiences with faking their identities. The third case presents when platforms lead workers to scam third parties, by engaging with how Brazilian click farm platforms’ workers use bots/fake accounts to engage with social media. Our focus on “platform scams” thus highlights the particular dimensions of faking, fraud, and deception operating in platform labor. This notion of platform scam expands and complexifies the understanding of scam within platform labor studies. Departing from workers' experiences, we engage with the asymmetries and unequal power relations present in the algorithmic management of labor. |
| Date: | 2021–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:mediar:7ejqn&r= |
| By: | Valentina Avramescu (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have analyzed aspects of the psychological mechanisms underlying the formation of the authenticity of the testimony. The elements that define the sensory reception are identified, the sensation and the perception shaping the psychic process of knowledge. Also, the factors likely to distort the sensory reception of the witnesses are presented and aspects of a subjective nature that influence the perceptual process are highlighted. |
| Keywords: | perception, sensory reception, emotional state, memory storage, memory reactivation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0087&r= |
| By: | Ernst Fehr; Thomas Epper (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Julien Senn |
| Abstract: | Increasing inequality and associated egalitarian sentiments have again put redistribution on the political agenda. Other-regarding preferences may also affect support for redistribution, but knowledge about their distribution in the broader population and how they are associated with political support for redistributive policies is still scarce. In this paper, we take advantage of Swiss direct democracy, where people voted several times on strongly redistributive policies in national plebiscites, to study the link between other-regarding preferences and support for redistribution in a broad sample of the Swiss population. We document that inequality aversion and altruistic concerns play a quantitatively large positive role in the support for redistribution, in particular for more affluent individuals. In addition, previously identified key motives underlying opposition to redistribution-such as the belief that effort is an important driver of individual success-play no role for selfish individuals but are highly relevant for altruistic and egalitarian individuals. Finally, while inequality averse individuals display strong support for policies that primarily aim at reducing the incomes of the rich, altruistic individuals are considerably less supportive of such policies. Thus, knowledge about the fundamental properties and the distribution of individuals' other-regarding preferences provides a deeper understanding about who is likely to support specific redistributive policies. |
| Keywords: | Social Preferences,Altruism,Inequality Aversion,Preference Heterogeneity,Demand for Redistribution |
| Date: | 2022–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03506826&r= |
| By: | Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from the original study replicate, with similar effect sizes. Additionally, we extend the original analysis by correlating a new individual index of debt aversion on individual characteristics such as gender, cognitive ability, and risk aversion. The findings suggest that gender and risk aversion are not correlated with debt aversion. However, cognitive ability is positively correlated with debt aversion. Overall, this paper confirms the importance of debt aversion in intertemporal consumption problems and validates the approach of Meissner (2016). |
| Keywords: | Debt Aversion,Replication,Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D84 G11 G41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20221&r= |
| By: | Andrew Foote |
| Abstract: | The Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes were originally released by Census in March 2018. As discussed in other publications (Foote et al. [2019]), the earnings data are protected using differential privacy methods. This protection method is more robust than alternatives, and more accurate than other DP methods, there is still error induced by the protection system. The purpose of this short technical note is to provide estimates of the error induced by the protection method. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:22-01&r= |
| By: | Ian Nicole A. Generalao (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Using the task-based framework, this study measures the level of skill transferability across occupations by building an occupational distance measure. The distance measure allows us to compare occupations in terms of their task profiles. Skill transferability between two occupations is high if the occupations are ‘close’ with each other and low if occupations are ‘far’ from each. In addition, the distance measure allows us to classify which occupational moves are considered an upskilling, down-skilling or lateral occupational moves. The occupational distance measure is also applied to the sample of TVET graduates to measure their level of occupational mobility pre- and post-training. This has important implications in terms of the amount of additional training and education needed by individuals to move from one occupation to another. This study constitutes a basis for further studies on understanding the relationship among occupational distances, mobility and wage differentials in different economies. |
| Keywords: | Tasks; Skills; Human Capital; Occupational Mobility |
| JEL: | J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202008&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020 using receipt of a hypothetical unanticipated, one-time income payment. Reported MPCs are low, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic un-certainty. Further, the fraction of respondents that report they would change their transfer payments to or from family and friends is almost as large as the fraction that report they would increase their spending. This means that targeting direct ?scal stimulus payments to high-MPC individuals could be partly undone, and that the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC. |
| Date: | 2021–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/03&r= |
| By: | Anell, Anders (Department of Business Administration, Lund University); Dietrichson, Jens (VIVE - The Danish Center for Social Science Research); Ellegård, Lina Maria (Department of Economics, Lund University); Kjellsson, Gustav (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | Market frictions, such as imperfect information or hassle costs, may reduce benefits from market incentives in healthcare settings. We use data from two randomised policy interventions in a Swedish region, which improved the access to provider information and reduced the switching costs of one percent of the adult population and of a sample of new residents. We examine the effects of the interventions on a large number of clinical process quality measures, access to care, and adverse health events, measured at the individual level. We find no significant effect of the interventions on any of the quality measures. |
| Keywords: | Market frictions; Field experiment; Care quality; Primary care; Sweden |
| JEL: | D89 I11 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | MPCs were directly elicited from a representative sample of UK adults in July 2020. Reported MPCs are low, around 11% on average. They are higher, but still modest, for individuals in households with high current needs. These low MPCs may be a consequence of the prevailing economic uncertainty. Some respondents report that they would respond to a one-time income payment by transferring more to friends and family, others report they would see a decline in the payments received. Targeting payments to high-MPC individuals could be partly undone. Further, the aggregate MPC out of a stimulus payment need not equal the population-average MPC, even if all individuals receive the same payment. |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/35&r= |
| By: | Fuchsman, Dillon (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); McGee, Josh (University of Arkansas); Zamarro, Gema (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Adequately saving for retirement requires both planning and knowledge about available retirement savings options. Teachers participate in a complex set of different plan designs and benefit tiers, and many do not participate in Social Security. While teachers represent a large part of the public workforce, relatively little is known regarding their knowledge about and preparation for retirement. We administered a survey to a nationally representative sample of teachers through RAND’s American Teacher Panel and asked teachers about their retirement planning and their employer sponsored retirement plans. We find that while most teachers are taking steps to prepare for retirement, many teachers lack the basic retirement knowledge necessary to plan effectively. Teachers struggled to identify their plan type, how much they are contributing to their plans, retirement eligibility ages, and who contributes to Social Security. These results suggest that teacher retirement reform may not be disruptive for teachers and that better, simpler, and clearer information about teacher retirement plans would be beneficial. |
| Keywords: | teacher pensions; retirement knowledge; retirement planning |
| JEL: | I20 J33 |
| Date: | 2022–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sluecr:2021_005&r= |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, or other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, market prices, retail prices, food prices, regional prices, agricultural stakeholders |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:october2021&r= |
| By: | Ben Grodeck (Department of Economics, Monash University); Philip J. Grossman (Department of Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Historically, positive reinforcement (PRI) for charitable giving happens after the fact; thank-you letters, calls, or gifts from the charities to donors. With online giving becoming more prominent, this creates an opportunity for instantaneous PRI. Our study offers the first evidence, to our knowledge, of the effect of instantaneous PRI on donation behavior. We conduct a large-scale online experiment on Amazon Mturk (n=2,375). Participants are randomly assigned to either a baseline with no PRI; a treatment in which subjects receive a static PRI thumbs up emoji (a general recognized gesture of approval); a treatment in which subjects receive a dynamic PRI thumbs up emoji [the emoji increases (decreases) in size as the size of the donation increases (decreases)]; and two other controls. We find that, consistent with much of the findings on thank-you letters, calls, and gifts, our instantaneous dynamic PRI has no significant positive effects on donation behavior. Surprisingly, we also find that static PRI results in significantly less being donated. These results suggest that organizations and policymakers should be hesitant in using instantaneous PRI, as it ranges from null to negative effects. |
| Keywords: | Positive reinforcement, Charitable giving, Experiment, Fundraising |
| JEL: | C90 D91 H40 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Tomaso Duso; Klaus Gugler; Joanna Piechucka |
| Abstract: | Worldwide, the overwhelming majority of large horizontal mergers are cleared by antitrust authorities unconditionally. The presumption seems to be that efficiencies from these mergers are sizeable. We calculate the compensating efficiencies that would prevent a merger from harming consumers for 1,014 mergers affecting 12,325 antitrust markets scrutinized by the European Commission between 1990 and 2018. Compensating efficiencies seem too large to be achievable for many mergers. Barriers to entry and the number of firms active in the market are the most important factors determining their size. We highlight concerns about the Commission’s merger enforcement being too lax. |
| Keywords: | Compensating efficiencies, Efficiency gains, Merger control, Concentration, Screens, HHI, Mergers, Unilateral Effects, Market Definition, Entry barriers |
| JEL: | L19 L24 L40 K21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1979&r= |
| By: | Martien Lamers; Thomas Present; Rudi Vander Vennet (-) |
| Abstract: | Have Euro Area banks restored viability in the post-crisis era? We investigate profitability convergence for Euro Area banks over the period 2009-2020 using the concepts of ß and s convergence and a club clustering algorithm. Our evidence is consistent with a slow catch up of the weaker banks, but we also document that better performing banks converge towards a lower profit level, suggesting a ‘great convergence’ towards the middle. Moreover, we identify a cluster of banks exhibiting dismal profit dynamics, indicating the need for a restructuring of part of the Euro Area banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Euro Area banks, bank profitability, ß convergence, s convergence, club clustering analysis |
| JEL: | C38 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:22/1039&r= |
| By: | Olga Fuentes Contreras; Ximena Quintanilla Domínguez; Alexandra Rueda Restrepo; Eugenio Salvo Cifuentes; Diego Herrera Astorga; Maria Fernanda Toledo Badilla (Studies Division, Chilean Pension Supervisor) |
| Abstract: | En el contexto de la pandemia por COVID-19 y de las crisis sanitaria y económica derivadas de esta, como una medida sin precedentes para el sistema de pensiones chileno se permitieron tres retiros anticipados de ahorros previsionales. A junio de 2021, estas tres leyes han resultado en un total de US$ 50.000 millones retirados. |
| Keywords: | Sistema de Pensiones de contribución definida |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sdp:sdpwps:67&r= |
| By: | David Milesi-Gaches (DEPARTMENT OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES BOURNEMOUTH UNIVERSITY FERN BARROW POOLE DORSET GBR - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture) |
| Abstract: | Public transports were strongly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic through, for example, networks shut down, or lockdown and distancing measures. Transport scenarios are helpful tools on which policies, development and management strategies are built. To see if we can still rely on pre-2020 scenarios in a post-pandemic world, it is important to explore if the epidemic, pandemic or infectious (EPI) risk was addressed or discussed. Hence, this paper proposes a systematic review to explore how the EPI risk and health are discussed in transport scenarios and transport scenario guidance documents. Both scientific and grey literatures were reviewed, through 17 search engines, with French and English keywords. Data were then processed through a Factor Analysis of Mixed Data (FAMD). The sample of 110 documents underlines a poor consideration for the EPI risk, with only 4 papers addressing, 7 mentioning and 37 indirectly mentioning the EPI risk, despite an important consideration for health (101 documents discussed health, with an average number of 3.45 health topics addressed). When discussed, the EPI risk is always addressed through the prism of health although it is recognized as a global disruptor for the whole society. Indeed, the more health topics are addressed, the more it is likely to find the EPI risk addressed in public transport scenarios or guidance documents. |
| Abstract: | Les transports publics ont été fortement impactés par la pandémie de Covid-19 à travers, par exemple, des fermetures de réseaux, ou des mesures de confinement et de distanciation. Les scénarios de transport sont des outils utiles sur lesquels reposent les politiques, les stratégies de développement et de gestion. Pour voir si nous pouvons toujours nous appuyer sur des scénarios pré-2020 dans un monde post-pandémique, il est important d'explorer si le risque épidémique, pandémique ou infectieux a été abordé ou discuté. Par conséquent, cet article propose une revue systématique pour explorer comment le risque épidémique et la santé sont discutés dans les scénarios de transport et les documents de guidance sur les scénarios de transport. La littérature scientifique et la littérature grise ont été passées en revue, via 17 moteurs de recherche, avec des mots-clés en français et en anglais. Les données ont ensuite été traitées par une analyse factorielle de données mixtes (AFDM). L'échantillon de 110 documents souligne une mauvaise prise en compte du risque épidémique, avec seulement 4 articles l'abordant, 7 le mentionnant et 37 le mentionnant indirectement, malgré une prise en compte importante de la santé (101 documents traitent de la santé, avec un nombre moyen de 3,45 sujets de santé abordés). Lorsqu'il est discuté, le risque épidémique est toujours abordé à travers le prisme de la santé bien qu'il soit reconnu comme un perturbateur global pour l'ensemble de la société. En effet, plus les sujets de santé sont abordés, plus il est probable de retrouver le risque épidémique abordé dans les scénarios de transport public ou les documents de guidance sur l'élaboration de scénarios. |
| Keywords: | public transport,scenario,infectious risk,pandemic,environment,Covid-19 |
| Date: | 2021–12–18 |
| URL: |