nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒01‒24
thirty papers chosen by

  1. Organizational Frictions and Increasing Returns to Automation: Lessons from AT&T in the Twentieth Century By James J. Feigenbaum; Daniel P. Gross
  2. Did the great influenza of 1918-1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization? By Pierre L Siklos
  4. The Past Of The Jews In The Simone Luzzatto's "Discorso Circa Il Stato De Gl'hebrei Et In Particolar Dimoranti Nell'inclita Citta Di Venetia" By Evgeny A. Khvalkov; Maksim D. Shkil; Anastasia V. Afanasieva
  5. 'Hidden' British protectionism: the Merchandise Marks Act 1887 By Harvey, Oliver
  6. THE IMAGE OF THE PAST IN CIRO SPONTONE’S ‘HISTORIA DELLA TRANSILVANIA’ By Evgeny A. Khvalkov; Feliks E. Levin; Alena D. Kuznetsova
  7. Waifs and strays: property rights in late medieval England By Claridge, Jordan; Gibbs, Spike
  9. Jacques Lacan and game theory: an early contribution to common knowledge reasoning By Pierre Courtois; Tarik Tazdaït
  10. Исторически традиции на контрола за спазване на трудовото законодателство By Dimitrova, Darina
  11. The Past as a Stochastic Process By David H. Wolpert; Michael H. Price; Stefani A. Crabtree; Timothy A. Kohler; Jurgen Jost; James Evans; Peter F. Stadler; Hajime Shimao; Manfred D. Laubichler
  12. Persistent States: lessons for Scottish devolution and independence By Anton Muscatelli; Graeme Roy; Alex Trew
  13. Historical Prevalence of Infectious Diseases and Entrepreneurship: the Role of Institutions in 125 Countries By Omang O. Messono; Simplice A. Asongu
  14. Opening Heaven's Door: Public Opinion and Congressional Votes on the 1965 Immigration Act By Facchini, Giovanni; Hatton, Timothy J.; Steinhardt, Max F.
  15. IMF conditionality, social programmes and the impact of women's welfare: an empirical analysis of historical policy responses to financial crises in Latin America and their gendered effects By Krubnik, Alicja
  16. No taxation without property rights: Formalization of property rights on land and tax revenues from individuals in sub-Saharan Africa By Marina Nistotskaya; Michelle D'Arcy
  17. Colombia: Democratic but Violent? By Leopoldo Fergusson; Juan F. Vargas
  18. Are the Supporters of Socialism the Losers of Capitalism? Conformism in East Germany and Transition Success By Max Deter; Martin Lange
  19. Peltzman Revisited: Quantifying 21st Century Opportunity Costs of FDA Regulation By Casey B. Mulligan
  20. Forced Displacement and Human Capital: Evidence from Separated Siblings By Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Sandra Sequeira
  21. Social mobility and economic development By Neidhöfer, Guido; Ciaschi, Matías; Gasparini, Leonardo; Serrano, Joaquín
  22. Using maps to predict economic activity By Imryoung Jeong; Hyunjoo Yang
  23. The Trend-cycle Connection By Florencia S. Airaudo; Hernán D. Seoane
  24. «Change in Intergenerational Mobility in Mexico: A Synthetic Cohort Analysis» By Florencia Torche
  25. Bibliometric Review of Research in Financial Health By Sepulveda Velasquez, Jorge
  26. «Intergenerational Economic Mobility in Mexico» By Raymundo Campos Vázquez; Víctor Delgado Barrera; Roberto Vélez Grajales
  27. Gravity at Sixty: The Bijou of Trade By Yotov, Yoto
  28. Prosperity or pollution? Mineral mining and regional growth in industrializing Japan By Kota Ogasawara
  29. La Política Regional: Notas De Clase Para Un Curso De Política Económica By Blanca Zuluaga; Camila Aguilar
  30. Social Mobility and the Mexican Context By Enrique Díaz Infante; Enrique E. Minor; Roberto Vélez Grajales; Thomas Staley; Gastón Yalonetzky; Rogelio Ramírez De la O; Mario Palma; Victoria Bonilla; José Carlos Pueblita; Luis Rubalcava; GracielaTeruel; Marcelo Delajara; Dositeo Graña

  1. By: James J. Feigenbaum; Daniel P. Gross
    Abstract: AT&T was the largest U.S. firm for most of the 20th century. Telephone operators once comprised over 50% of its workforce, but in the late 1910s it initiated a decades-long process of automating telephone operation with mechanical call switching—a technology first invented in the 1880s. We study what drove AT&T to do so, and why it took one firm nearly a century to automate this one basic function. Interdependencies between operators and nearly every other part of the business were obstacles: the manual switchboard was the fulcrum of a complex system which had developed around it, and automation only began after the firm and automatic technology were adapted to work together. Even then, automatic switching was only profitable for AT&T in larger markets—hence diffusion expanded as costs declined and service areas grew. We show that automation supported AT&T's continued growth, generating a positive feedback loop between scale and automation that reinforced AT&T's high market share in local markets.
    JEL: J23 L11 L23 M11 M15 M54 N32 O33
    Date: 2021–12
  2. By: Pierre L Siklos
    Abstract: I revisit the 1918-20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870-1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, the first globalization of the 20th century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role.
    Keywords: Great Influenza 1918-20, globalization, openness, financial integration
    JEL: N10 O57 F15 F36
    Date: 2021–11
  3. By: Oleg Rusakovskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Modern historians have widely acknowledged that the traditional Eastern Orthodoxy was less inclined to proclaim the Holy War against the enemies of faith and, thus, to dehumanize the non-Christian adversaries of the Russian tsardom than the confessions of the Western Christendom were by similar circumstances. The presented paper aims to challenge this view. The Russian political and religious propaganda of the late 17th century rarely appealed to the idea of the Holy War and called for extermination or enslavement of the infidels directly. Instead, the complex of Biblical metaphors was used. Whereas the Russian tsardom had been traditionally seen as the ‘New Israel’, the preachers of the 1680s and 1690s recalled the deeds of Moses, Joshua and Gedeon and compared the Muslim enemies of the realm – Tatars and Turks – with the cursed people of Canaan such as Midianites and Amalekites. Parallelly, the images of the violence Israelites committed against these people by divine sanction became popular in the religious wall painting, in part, due to some influences from the Western book illustration brought to Russia in the second half of the 17th century. Some religiously zealous contemporaries, from the advisors of the young Tsar Peter I to ordinary gentry, applied these negative Biblical images of religiously and ethnically suspected others not only to the Muslims but even to the Protestant population of the Baltic provinces of Sweden attacked during the Great Northern war adding a confessional dimension to the predominantly secular rhetoric of the government
    Keywords: Old Testament, Book of Joshua, Religious Violence, Peter the Great, Russo-Turkish Wars, Great Northern War
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Evgeny A. Khvalkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maksim D. Shkil (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasia V. Afanasieva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study is focused on the Italian vernacular text written by Simone Luzzatto "Discourse on the State of the Jews". It is important to observe the narrative of this seventeenth century Venetian rabbi in two aspects: firstly, how he tried to incorporate Jews into the Venetian Republic, secondly, how and for what purpose he instrumentalized the past and antiquity. We argue that the treatise of Luzzatto had a fundamental impact on the birth of the Italian version of the Haskalah, which influenced the other versions significantly.
    Keywords: Early Modern Period, 16-17th centuries, the Other, early modern ethnography.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Harvey, Oliver
    Abstract: The merits of Britain’s trade policy in the late nineteenth century have been long debated. Williamson and O’Rourke found a positive correlation between tariffs and growth across countries in the period, suggesting that free trade harmed the British economy. By contrast, Crafts and Broadberry disagree with the idea that the late Victorian slowdown in British productivity can be ascribed to weak exports, and instead highlight the benefits of openness to Britain’s services sector. This dissertation will aim to contribute to this debate by examining a little studied example of British soft protectionism. In 1887, Britain sought to protect manufacturers from competition in home and foreign markets by passing the Merchandise Marks Act. This required that a large share of imports had to be marked with an indication of their country of origin. It was hoped the Act would protect the reputation of British products, curtail unfair foreign trade practices, and encourage consumers to buy British products. While the Act was not a tariff, it generated controversies that echo those today over geographical indicators (GIs) and can be seen as an early form of non-tariff barrier. The second part of the dissertation addresses whether the Act affected British trade. I do not find evidence the Act was able to halt the advance of German manufacturing exports to Britain. But there is strong evidence that it damaged Britain’s entrepot trade and enhanced trade between commercial rivals and colonial markets. This supports Broadberry and Craft’s assertion that economic openness benefitted the British economy.
    JEL: N73
    Date: 2021–12
  6. By: Evgeny A. Khvalkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Feliks E. Levin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alena D. Kuznetsova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper is focused on the image of the past of the Other in the early modern European writings as exemplified by Italian discourse about Transylvania in the narrative by Ciro Spontone. The article analyzes the use of such categories as “antiquity" and “past" applied to the territory and people in Transylvania. The examination of discourses on people`s origin has demonstrated that references to the past were instrumentalized to create cultural hierarchies from the most civilized Saxons to ultimate barbarians Tatars. For this Spontone mainly used two intellectual frameworks, namely, the Roman antiquity, associated with civility, and Scythian origin
    Keywords: Early Modern Period, 16-17th centuries, the Other, discourse, image of the past, Europe, periphery, Transylvania, Spontone, early modern ethnography.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Claridge, Jordan; Gibbs, Spike
    Abstract: This article provides new insights into long-standing debates on lord-tenant relations in medieval England and how they were negotiated through the manorial court. We examine an institution, which we term the stray system , that facilitated cooperation between lords and tenants to manage stray livestock. Specifically, we argue that the stray system is a clear example of a public good. In this context, the system was a social benefit provided by lords to their tenants as a collective. In a world where most of the population was dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, any potential damage to a crop would have been of real concern. However, in managing the threat of wandering livestock, the property rights of owners had to be clearly protected to avoid disputes over ownership. The manorial court's management of strays provided an institution to resolve these countervailing pressures. Ultimately, that system helped to protect a community's arable land—the most vital source of income for lords and tenants alike—while simultaneously assuring the property rights of those who had lost important capital assets in the form of livestock.
    Keywords: CUP deal
    JEL: N43 N33
    Date: 2021–11–24
  8. By: Vivekanand Jha
    Abstract: "The novel, “River of Smoke” (2011) is the second of Amitav Ghosh’s ambitious Ibis trilogy. The first novel is “Sea of Poppies” (2008) and the third novel is “Flood of Fire” (2015). The novel is a historical narrative about the opium trading, trafficking and addiction. It is yet another milestone and epoch-making historical novel in the history of Indian fiction which makes the readers reminisce of the bruised and pleasant past and their perpetuating repercussions even in the present. The extraordinary scholarship and erudition of Amitav Ghosh comes into display in narrating and storytelling of the novel. The novel is inundated with a host of scenes from different origins and cultures. The present article focuses on dominant characters, plot and places that this novel encapsulates in it." Key Words: Canton, China, British, opium, traders, addiction, drug, foreigner, sing-song girl.
    Date: 2021–12
  9. By: Pierre Courtois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Tarik Tazdaït (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Lacan's contribution in applying and promoting game theory in the early 1950s is mostly ignored in the history of game theory. Yet his early analyses of logical reasoning made him one of the first social scientists to consider the importance of the hypothesis of common knowledge. By retracing Lacan's path in his discovery of game theory, we show how much he has been a precursor in applying it. While accommodating a narrative approach, he demonstrated rigour and originality. Soliciting mathematicians open to interdisciplinarity, he introduced as early as 1945 modes of reasoning which corresponds to reasoning based on common knowledge.
    Keywords: la Lettre Volée,enigma of the three prisoners,common knowledge,Lacan
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Dimitrova, Darina
    Abstract: The paper examines the legal framework of labour legislation compliance control from a historical perspective. It traces the stages of development regarding the control of the observance of employee labour rights in the following periods: 1) from the 1878 Liberation of Bulgaria to 1944; 2) from 1944 to the democratic changes of 1989. The importance of the right to work as a basic constitutional social right and the ways to protect it have been relevant in all historical periods of the development of the Bulgarian legal system. The socio-historical conditionality of the legal norms, protecting the labour rights of hired workers, is clarified through retrospective analysis of the normative regulation concerning the control of the compliance with labour legislation.
    Keywords: history of law, labour rights, administrative control, public control
    JEL: K23 K31
    Date: 2021
  11. By: David H. Wolpert; Michael H. Price; Stefani A. Crabtree; Timothy A. Kohler; Jurgen Jost; James Evans; Peter F. Stadler; Hajime Shimao; Manfred D. Laubichler
    Abstract: Historical processes manifest remarkable diversity. Nevertheless, scholars have long attempted to identify patterns and categorize historical actors and influences with some success. A stochastic process framework provides a structured approach for the analysis of large historical datasets that allows for detection of sometimes surprising patterns, identification of relevant causal actors both endogenous and exogenous to the process, and comparison between different historical cases. The combination of data, analytical tools and the organizing theoretical framework of stochastic processes complements traditional narrative approaches in history and archaeology.
    Date: 2021–12
  12. By: Anton Muscatelli; Graeme Roy; Alex Trew
    Abstract: The equilibrium size of a nation state is, in part, the result of a trade-off between the gains from scale economies in the provision of public services and the costs of applying uniform policy to heterogeneous cultural, institutional, and geographical fundamentals. Changes in such fundamentals can thus place pressure on states to reform over time. We consider this dynamic state formation process in the context of Scotland within the UK. First, we review the recent research in economic history on the persistence and evolution of such fundamentals. Second, we consider the history of Scotland both before and after the 1707 Act of Union in the light of that broader economic history literature. We conclude with some implications of fundamental persistence for current debates on the place of Scotland within the UK.
    Keywords: Scotland, persistence, state formation
    JEL: H77 N43 N44
    Date: 2022–01
  13. By: Omang O. Messono (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the historical prevalence of infectious diseases on contemporary entrepreneurship. Previous studies reveal the persistence of the effects of historical diseases on innovation, through the channel of culture. Drawing on the epidemiological origin of institutions, we propose a framework which argues that the impact of infectious disease prevalence on contemporary entrepreneurship is mediated by property rights. The central hypothesis posits that a guarantee of property rights reduces the effect of past diseases on entrepreneurship. Using data from 125 countries, we find strong and robust evidence on the proposed hypothesis and other results. Property rights are higher in countries where the prevalence of diseases was low, which leads to good entrepreneurship scores. In contrast, countries with high disease prevalence did not have time to develop strong institutions to secure property rights. This explains their low level of entrepreneurship today. These results are robust to alternative methods and measures of property rights. Furthermore, our results also confirm the level of development, culture and the digitalization of economies as transmission channels between past diseases and the current level of entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship; institutions; diseases; property rights
    JEL: I0 J24 I21 I31
    Date: 2021–09
  14. By: Facchini, Giovanni (University of Nottingham); Hatton, Timothy J. (University of Essex); Steinhardt, Max F. (Free University of Berlin)
    Abstract: The Immigration Act of 1965 marked a dramatic shift in policy and one with major long term consequences for the volume and composition of immigration to the United States. Here we explore the political economy of a reform that has been overshadowed by the Civil Rights and Great Society programs. We find that public opinion was against expanding immigration, but it was more favorable to abolishing the old country of origin quota system. Votes in the House of Representatives and the Senate were more closely linked to opinion on abolishing the country of origin quotas than to public opinion on the volume of immigration. Support for immigration reform initially followed in the slipstream of civil rights legislation both among members of Congress and their constituents. The final House vote, on a more restrictive version of the bill, was instead more detached from state-level public opinion on civil rights and gained more support from those whose constituents wanted to see immigration decreased.
    Keywords: US immigration policy, 1965 Immigration Act, congressional voting
    JEL: N12 F22 J68
    Date: 2021–12
  15. By: Krubnik, Alicja
    Abstract: Successive debt crises that have affected Latin America since the late 1970s had unique and substantial consequences on women in the areas of, education, health, as well as political and economic participation that exacerbated gender inequalities. During this period, demand increased for social programmes that had the potential to mitigate decreases in women’s welfare. National policy responses to the crises were, however, largely driven by International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditional lending agreements. Though conditionality was primarily motivated by conditionality fiscal austerity, liberalization, deregulation, and privatization, conditions pertaining to redistribution and social policy also existed. This dissertation has two main aims: the first is to determine what effects conditions in different issue areas had on the prevalence of social programmes in Latin America in the late 20th and early 21st centuries and the second is to understand how changes to social programmes have affected women’s welfare in relation to the welfare of men. Building off Kentikelenis et al.’s categorisation of different conditionality issue areas,1 the first analysis makes use of instrumental variable two-stage last-squared (IV 2SLS) estimation to understand the relationship between specific conditions and social programmes. Next, fixed-effects (FE) estimation was leveraged in order to examine the impact of various social programmes on women’s welfare. The findings conclude that while conditionality had mixed effects on social programmes, it diminished those which were determined to positively impact women’s welfare in relation to that of men.
    Keywords: debt crises; Latin America; IMF; conditionality; government social expenditure; women's welfare; gender inequality
    JEL: N0 E6
    Date: 2021–11
  16. By: Marina Nistotskaya; Michelle D'Arcy
    Abstract: The arguments that property rights and taxation positively affect development are well established in separate literatures, but the link between property rights and taxation is under-studied. To address this gap, we theorize that formalization of individual property rights facilitates economic exchange at scale, providing a viable opportunity for individuals to improve their economic standing, in exchange for which property owners assent to pay taxes. We illustrate the argument by comparing the historical evolution of tax states in early modern Europe and colonial Africa.
    Keywords: Property rights, Taxation, Sub-Saharan Africa, Afrobarometer
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Leopoldo Fergusson; Juan F. Vargas
    Abstract: Colombia is a Latin American outlier in that it has traditionally been a very violent country, yet at the same time remarkably democratic. This chapter explores Colombia’s puzzle from a political economy perspective, shedding light on the broader relationship between democracy and violence. The chapter studies some of the most important democratization reforms since Colombia’s independence 200 years ago. It argues that the reforms often failed to curb violence and sometimes even actively, though perhaps unintendedly, exacerbated violent political strife. Democratic reforms were unable to set the ground for genuine power-sharing. They were often implemented amidst a weak institutional environment that allowed powerful elites, the reforms’ ex-ante political losers, to capture the State and offset the benefits of the reforms for the broader society. We conclude by highlighting the implications of the argument for other countries facing democratic reforms, as well as for Colombia’s current peace-building efforts.
    Keywords: Colombia, democracy, democratization, conflict, violence, power-sharing, politicalinstitutions.
    JEL: D72 D74 P48
    Date: 2022–01–13
  18. By: Max Deter; Martin Lange
    Abstract: The empirical literature is inconclusive about whether a country’s democratization goes hand in hand with a reallocation of economic resources. With newly available individual-level data of former residents of the socialist German Democratic Republic (GDR), we analyse how supporters and opponents of the socialist system performed within the market-based democracy of West Germany after reunification. Protesters, those who helped to overthrow the socialist regime in the Peaceful Revolution show higher life satisfaction and better labor market outcomes in the new economic system. Former members of the ruling socialist party and employees in state-supervised sectors become substantially less satisfied. These results do not seem to be driven by individual reactions to the transition, but rather by the removal of discriminatory practices in the GDR. Additional results indicate that conformism in the GDR also explains political preferences over the almost three decades after the reunification of Germany.
    Keywords: East Germany, state socialism, transition, labor market, life satisfaction
    JEL: H10 N44 P20 D31
    Date: 2021
  19. By: Casey B. Mulligan
    Abstract: This paper revisits Peltzman (1973) in light of two recent opportunities to quantitatively assess tradeoffs in drug regulation. First, reduced regulatory barriers to drug manufacturing associated with the 2017 reauthorization of Generic Drug User Fee Amendments were followed by significantly more entry and lower consumer prices for prescription drugs. Using a simple and versatile industry model and historical data on entry, I find that easing generic restrictions discourages innovation, but this welfare cost is more than offset by consumer benefits from enhanced competition, especially after 2016. Second, accelerated vaccine approval in 2020 had unprecedented net benefits as it not only improved health but substantially changed the trajectory of the wider economy. The evidence suggests that cost-benefit analysis of FDA regulation is incomplete without accounting for substitution toward potentially unsafe and ineffective treatments that are both outside FDA jurisdiction and heavily utilized prior to FDA approval. Moreover, the policy processes initiating these 21st century regulatory changes show a clear influence of Peltzman’s 1973 findings.
    JEL: I18 L51 L65 O31
    Date: 2021–12
  20. By: Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Sandra Sequeira
    Abstract: We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital. We focus on the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992), during which more than four million civilians fled to the countryside, cities, and refugee camps and settlements in neighboring countries. We leverage the full post-war census to compare siblings separated during the war, using those who stayed behind as a counterfactual to one’s displacement path. Uprooted children register higher investments in education. Second, we quantify the relative importance of place-based and displacement effects. The latter increases education and decreases attachment to agriculture by the same rate as being exposed to an environment approximately one standard deviation more developed than one’s birthplace. Third, we conduct a survey in Nampula, whose population doubled during the civil war. Those who fled to the city have significantly higher education than their siblings who remained in the countryside and they converged to the levels of schooling of non-mover urban-born individuals. However, those displaced exhibit significantly lower social/civic capital and have worse mental health, even three decades after the war. These findings reveal that displacement shocks can trigger human capital investments, breaking links with subsistence agriculture, but at the cost of long-lasting, social, and psychological traumas.
    JEL: J10 J15 J20 O1 O15 O18
    Date: 2021–12
  21. By: Neidhöfer, Guido; Ciaschi, Matías; Gasparini, Leonardo; Serrano, Joaquín
    Abstract: We explore the role of social mobility as a driver of economic development. First, we map the geography of intergenerational mobility of education for 52 Latin American regions, as well as its evolution over time. Then, through a new weighting procedure that considers the participation of cohorts to the economy in each year, we estimate the impact of changes in mobility on regional economic indicators, such as income per capita, poverty, child mortality, and luminosity. Our findings show that increasing social mobility had a significant and robust effect on the development of Latin American regions.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Mobility,Equality of Opportunity,Development,Growth,Latin America
    JEL: D63 I24 J62 O15
    Date: 2021
  22. By: Imryoung Jeong; Hyunjoo Yang
    Abstract: We introduce a novel machine learning approach to leverage historical and contemporary maps to systematically predict economic statistics. Remote sensing data have been used as reliable proxies for local economic activity. However, they have only become available in recent years, thus limiting their applicability for long-term analysis. Historical maps, on the other hand, date back several decades. Our simple algorithm extracts meaningful features from the maps based on their color compositions. The grid-level population predictions by our approach outperform the conventional CNN-based predictions using raw map images. It also predicts population better than other approaches using night light satellite images or land cover classifications as the input for predictions.
    Date: 2021–12
  23. By: Florencia S. Airaudo (Universidad Carlos III); Hernán D. Seoane (Universidad Carlos III)
    Abstract: Long-run growth in Latin America over the last 50 years has been low and volatile inthe presence of frequent Sudden Stops. We develop a theory that links long-run growth,financial frictions, and Sudden Stops in Emerging countries. Our theory exploits thefact that reversals in trade balance during Sudden Stops occur through sharp declinesin imports, particularly of imported investment, rather than increases in exports. Imported investment, in turn, has a permanent impact on economic growth. We find thattrend growth deteriorates during Sudden Stops and, even though trend shocks play acrucial role, financial frictions and shocks have a significant impact on its dynamics.We apply our model to the Sudden Stops in Argentina since the 1950s and find thatfinancial crises have a strong permanent effect on the trend. Hence, to a large extent,the trend is the cycle.Long-run growth in Latin America over the last 50 years has been low and volatile inthe presence of frequent Sudden Stops. We develop a theory that links long-run growth,financial frictions, and Sudden Stops in Emerging countries. Our theory exploits thefact that reversals in trade balance during Sudden Stops occur through sharp declinesin imports, particularly of imported investment, rather than increases in exports. Imported investment, in turn, has a permanent impact on economic growth. We find thattrend growth deteriorates during Sudden Stops and, even though trend shocks play acrucial role, financial frictions and shocks have a significant impact on its dynamics.We apply our model to the Sudden Stops in Argentina since the 1950s and find thatfinancial crises have a strong permanent effect on the trend. Hence, to a large extent,the trend is the cycle.Long-run growth in Latin America over the last 50 years has been low and volatile in the presence of frequent Sudden Stops. We develop a theory that links long-run growth, financial frictions, and Sudden Stops in Emerging countries. Our theory exploits the fact that reversals in trade balance during Sudden Stops occur through sharp declines in imports, particularly of imported investment, rather than increases in exports. Imported investment, in turn, has a permanent impact on economic growth. We find that trend growth deteriorates during Sudden Stops and, even though trend shocks play a crucial role, financial frictions and shocks have a significant impact on its dynamics. We apply our model to the Sudden Stops in Argentina since the 1950s and find that financial crises have a strong permanent effect on the trend. Hence, to a large extent, the trend is the cycle.
    Keywords: Emerging markets; Real business cycle; trend shocks; Financial Frictions.
    JEL: F32 F34 F41
    Date: 2021–12
  24. By: Florencia Torche (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: We study the changes in intergenerational socioeconomic mobility in Mexico among cohorts born between the 1950s and the 1980s. These cohorts came of age in sharply different economic institutional contexts, as Mexico experienced urbanization, industrialization, and demographic transformations. In addition, we examine the role that educational attainment plays in the mobility process. Specifically, we examine the portion of the intergenerational socioeconomic association that is mediated by education, and the portion that occurs through channels other than the educational system. Given substantial stratification based on gender and region, we conduct separate analyses for Mexican men and women as well as across regions of the country.
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Sepulveda Velasquez, Jorge
    Abstract: Financial Health is a multi-dimensional concept that has taken shape over the past 20 years, and continues to develop. It arises from the incorporation of multidisciplinary components to the financial behaviour of individuals, allowing a good measurement of the quality of life of households and the economic stability of companies. In order to continue expanding the research associated with Financial Health, we have developed a bibliometric analysis that allows us to have a panoramic view of the most outstanding actors, institutions, authors, articles and countries that have the greatest importance worldwide. The research considers the use of VOSviewer software in order to model the bibliographic information associated with Financial Health and present it in an easy and simple manner to understand. The outcomes show a greater volume of publications from English speaking countries (United States, England, Australia and Canada) and the top 3 of the most cited sources is consistent with what we expected to get: 1 - Journal of Finance, 2 - Journal of Economics and Finance and 3 - American Economics Review. Finally, the institutions that most influence Financial Health research correspond to North American entities.
    Keywords: Bibliographic Study, Financial Health
    JEL: G29 I23
    Date: 2021–01–03
  26. By: Raymundo Campos Vázquez; Víctor Delgado Barrera; Roberto Vélez Grajales (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: This article documents several measures of intergenerational economic mobility in Mexico. We employ census data available for 1990 to 2015 that provides data on earnings. Since censuses do not link individuals over time, the empirical strategy follows a synthetic approach by matching individuals with synthetic family earnings by the state where they were born and their birth cohort. The aggregate estimate indicates an intergenerational elasticity (IGE) of 0.50 for Mexico, adjusted for cross-country comparison. From this perspective, intergenerational mobility is low in comparison with advanced economies. Results also suggest a higher intergenerational mobility for younger cohorts. For regional comparisons, estimates show that people born in southern Mexico are more likely to have a lesser degree of intergenerational mobility.
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University)
    Abstract: On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a `celebrity', due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive reduced-form estimating equation and apply it without guidance from theory, while others are skeptical about its usefulness for counterfactual projections. The objective of this paper is to celebrate the anniversary of gravity by offering a historical overview of its evolution from an a-theoretical application to an estimating computable general equilibrium (E-CGE) model, which can be nested in more complex frameworks. Along the way, I address some misconceptions about the gravity model, summarize the current best practices for gravity estimations, and highlight some properties that have made gravity so successful
    Keywords: Structural Gravity; Evolution; Theory; Estimation; General Equilibrium
    JEL: F10 F14 F16
    Date: 2022–01–14
  28. By: Kota Ogasawara
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of polymetallic metal and coal mining on the regional economy in industrializing Japan. By linking the location information of mines with registration- and census-based statistics, I found that mines increased the local population via internal migration. This led to a local, structural shift from the agricultural sector to the mining, manufacturing, and service sectors, depending on sex. Furthermore, it decreased female labor force participation. These effects are heterogeneous with respect to the type of mines; coal mines are more likely to have stronger effects than polymetallic mines. Although coal mines increase the risk of fetal and infant deaths, gold and silver mines improve the health status of infants.
    Date: 2021–12
  29. By: Blanca Zuluaga; Camila Aguilar
    Abstract: Este documento contiene un análisis de las disparidades regionales y la política regional de Colombia, incluyendo una serie de ideas y prioridades sobre lo que necesita el país para construir políticas más efectivas. El texto está dirigido principalmente a estudiantes de política económica de pregrado, pero puede ser útil para cualquier investigador interesado en el análisis de las brechas regionales.
    Keywords: Política Regional, Política Económica
    Date: 2022–01–17
  30. By: Enrique Díaz Infante; Enrique E. Minor; Roberto Vélez Grajales; Thomas Staley; Gastón Yalonetzky; Rogelio Ramírez De la O; Mario Palma; Victoria Bonilla; José Carlos Pueblita; Luis Rubalcava; GracielaTeruel; Marcelo Delajara; Dositeo Graña (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: Este libro es el resultado de diversas discusiones sobre la movilidad social en México que se realizaron desde 2014 entre investigadores, académicos y estudiantes, principalmente en la London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE), en el marco de la Semana de México en la LSE. La movilidad social es el tema principal de esta compilación, aunque algunos capítulos abordan otros temas. En el libro se muestra que México es un país con baja movilidad social; en particular, es menor entre los extremos de la distribución. Muchos de los problemas que enfrenta el país están relacionados con la falta de cohesión social, gobernabilidad, bajo crecimiento y desigualdad. Estos problemas podrían reducirse o manejarse mejor si se promoverán políticas que impulsen la movilidad social.
    Date: 2020

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.