nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2022‒01‒10
forty-five papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Pork, infrastructure and growth: Evidence from the Italian railway expansion By Roberto Bonfatti; Giovanni Facchini; Alexander Tarasov; Gian Luca Tedeschi; Cecilia Testa
  2. Natural Trading Partners Versus Empires in East and Southeast Asia Regional Integration (1840-1938) By Alejandro Ayuso-Díaz
  3. Comparative European institutions and the Little Divergence, 1385-1800 By Henriques, Antonio; Palma, Nuno
  4. Severe Prenatal Shocks and Adolescent Health: Evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter By Gabriella Conti; Stavros Poupakis; Peter Ekamper; Govert Bijwaard; L. H. Lumey
  5. Aproximacion a los estudios sobre la economia en la Segunda Republica espanola hasta 1936 -- Approaches to the economics of the Spanish Second Republic prior to 1936 By I. Martin-de-Santos
  6. Measuring Inflation Expectations in Interwar Britain By Jason Lennard; Finn Meinecke; Solomos Solomou
  7. Stunting and wasting in a growing economy:biological living standards in Portugal,1924-1994 By Cermeño, Alexandra L.; Palma, Nuno; Pistola, Renato
  8. Measuring European economic integration 1880 - 1913: A new approach By Kouli, Yaman; König, Jörg
  9. Le sort des migrants africains en Inde : L'Afrophobie entrave la course de l'Inde aux ressources et aux marchés de l'Afrique By Kohnert, Dirk
  10. The impact of rent control: investigations on historical data in the city of Lyon By Loïc Bonneval; Florence Goffette-Nagot; Zhejin Zhao
  11. The UK Clean Air Act, Black Smoke, and Infant Mortality By Fukushima, Nanna
  12. Economic Aspects of Settlement in the Oasis of Bukhara, Uzbekistan: An Archaeo-Economic Approach By Rocco Rante; Federico Trionfetti
  13. Book Review: Capital as Power By Lynch, Owen
  14. Transportation Costs in the Age of Highways: Evidence from United States 1955-2010 By Barde, Sylvain; Klein, Alexander
  15. Contemporary Class Analysis By Daniel Oesch
  16. Women and Economics Workshops Run by Gary Becker and Jacob Mincer at Columbia University and the University of Chicago By Andrea Beller; Shoshana Grossbard; Ana Fava; Marouane Idmansour
  17. Opening heaven’s door: Public opinion and congressional votes on the 1965 Immigration Act By Giovanni Facchini; Timothy J. Hatton; Max F. Steinhardt
  18. Social Organization and the Roots of Supernatural Beliefs By Araújo, Daniel; Carrillo, Bladimir; Sampaio, Breno
  19. Growth and Inflation in Turkey By Alkan, Berkay
  20. This paper estimates how beer franchise laws and their interaction with restrictions on vertical integration between manufacturing and wholesaling impacted US craft brewers’ entry and production decisions. The effects are identified by exploiting variation in policies across states and time between 1980 and 2016. I find that beer franchise laws significantly reduced craft brewery entry and growth, leading to lower levels of breweries and craft beer production. The effects are largest in states that place restrictions on brewery/wholesaler integration. The findings in this paper indicate that contract termination restrictions, which were legislated to protect wholesalers from upstream brewers, had the effect of encouraging opportunism from wholesalers and inhibited the growth of smaller firms in the industry. By Jacob Burgdorf
  21. Before the “Inner Worldly Asceticism” : ecclesiastical accounting, government and economic rationality (13th-15th centuries) By Clément Lenoble
  22. Invención y patentes en Uruguay: evidencia empírica entre 1970 y 2018 By Carlos Bianchi; Pablo Galaso; Sergio Palomeque; Santiago Picasso; Adrián Rodríguez Miranda
  23. Without liberty and justice, what extremes to expect? Two contemporary perspectives By Miller, Marcus; Ben Zissimos
  24. Health Shocks of the Father and Longevity of the Children's Children By Dora Costa
  25. Strangling speculation: The effect of the 1903 Viennese futures trading ban By Wurm, Laura
  26. Health Improvements Impact Income Inequality By Rainer Franz Kotschy
  27. Pre-colonial centralization and tax compliance norms in contemporary Uganda By Merima Ali; Odd-Helge Fjeldstad
  28. Cincuenta años del departamento de Sucre By María Aguilera-Díaz; Yuri Reina-Aranza
  29. Precio de esclavos y esclavas en inventarios post mortem 1760-1825 By Rebeca Riella
  30. Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data By Rangan Gupta; Sayar Karmakar; Christian Pierdzioch
  31. Smart Banknotes and Cryptobanknotes: Hybrid Banknotes for Central Bank Digital Currencies and Cryptocurrency Payments By Noll, Franklin; Lipkin, Andrei
  32. New Area- and Population-based Geographic Crosswalks for U.S. Counties and Congressional Districts, 1790-2020 By Ferrara, Andreas; Testa, Patrick A.; Zhou, Liyang
  33. Epidemics, Gender, and Human Capital in Developing Countries By Carine Meyimdjui; Diego B. P. Gomes; Marina M. Tavares; Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
  34. An Anomaly within an Anomaly: The Halloween Effect in the Long-term Reversal Anomaly By Lee, King Fuei
  35. Léon Dupriez and the 1953 International Economic Association Conference on Economic Progress By Alain Raybaut
  36. Faith in Science: What Can We Learn from Michael Polanyi? By Agnès Festré; Stein Østbye
  37. Politics and organized interests in Swedish pension policy By Anderson, Karen M.
  38. The Fourth Accounting Directive and Member State Options for Single Accounts By Henselmann, Klaus
  39. Sources of Growth and Stagnation in the Japanese Economy: An Analysis Based on Data for Listed Firms Spanning More Than Five Decades By FUKAO Kyoji; KIM YoungGak; KWON Hyeog Ug
  40. A Real-Time Historical Database of Macroeconomic Indicators for Russia By Dmitry Gornostaev; Alexey Ponomarenko; Sergei Seleznev; Alexandra Sterkhova
  41. Information Avoidance and Celebrity Exposure: The Effect of "Magic" Johnson on AIDS Diagnoses and Mortality in the U.S. By Alexander Cardazzi; Joshua Martin; Zachary Rodriguez
  42. Seven Decades of Changing Seasonal Land Use for Rice Production in Bangladesh, 1947-2019: Trends, Patterns and Implications By Mohammad Alauddin; Clement A Tisdell; Md Abdur Rashid Sarker
  43. Race and Economic Well-Being in the United States By Jean-Felix Brouillette; Charles I. Jones; Peter J. Klenow
  44. Technology-Skill Complementarity and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Two Centuries of Patents with Occupations By Leonid Kogan; Dimitris Papanikolaou; Lawrence D. W. Schmidt; Bryan Seegmiller
  45. Развитие на европейската политика в областта на миграцията и убежището By Marinov, Eduard

  1. By: Roberto Bonfatti; Giovanni Facchini; Alexander Tarasov; Gian Luca Tedeschi; Cecilia Testa
    Abstract: This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical junction played a key role in explaning the long-run evolution of local economies.
    Keywords: Infractural Development, Political Economy
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Alejandro Ayuso-Díaz (CUNEF Universidad, Madrid, Spain)
    Abstract: This paper tries to contribute to the literature dealing with the history of regional integration in East and Southeast Asia, reconciling the arguments defending that those territories are natural trading partners, those supporting that Western Empires enabled integration, and the ones claiming that it was the Japanese Empire which expanded regional trade. With this purpose, we reconstruct the region’s bilateral imports before the establishment of Free Trade Areas. This work is pioneering in the econometric analysis of the main drivers of the commercial integration of East and Southeast Asia during the high colonial era (1840-1938). Our results show that countries' specific economic and cultural characteristics made them natural trading partners. However, intra-Asian trade acceleration during the late 19th and early 20th Centuries was possible by the British free trade imperialism and the planned industrialization of the Japanese empire.
    Keywords: natural traing partners, informal empire, transit trade, regional integration
    JEL: B17 B27 C12 F15
    Date: 2021–12
  3. By: Henriques, Antonio (Universidade do Porto); Palma, Nuno (University of Manchester; Instituto de Ciencias Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa; CEPR)
    Abstract: Why did the countries that first benefited from access to the New World – Castile and Portugal – decline relative to their followers, especially England and the Netherlands? The dominant narrative is that worse initial institutions at the time of the opening of the Atlantic trade explain the Iberian divergence. In this paper, we build a new dataset which allows for a comparison of institutional quality over time. We consider the frequency and nature of parliamentary meetings, the frequency and intensity of extraordinary taxation and coin debasement, and real interest rates and spreads for public debt. We find no evidence that the political institutions of Portugal and Spain were worse until the English Civil War.
    Keywords: Atlantic Traders, New Institutional Economics, the Little Divergence JEL Classification: N13, N23, O10, P14, P16
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Gabriella Conti (University College London); Stavros Poupakis (University College London); Peter Ekamper (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); Govert Bijwaard (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); L. H. Lumey (Columbia University Medical Center)
    Abstract: This paper investigates impacts, mechanisms and selection effects of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944 - May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using difference-in-differences and triple differences research designs, we show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being overweight at age 18, and that this effect is partly accounted for by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Moreover, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and find evidence of both selection and scarring effects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions.
    Keywords: fetal origins hypothesis, famine, prenatal exposure
    JEL: I10 J13
    Date: 2021–12
  5. By: I. Martin-de-Santos
    Abstract: Macroeconomic data on the Spanish economy during the Second Republic is not accurate, the interpretation of historical events from the figures obtained is divergent and misleading. Hasty laws were enacted in attempts to resolve social problems arising mainly from deep economic inequalities, but they were often nothing more than declarations of good intentions. Spain suffered in the aftermath of the international economic downturn as it began to be felt at the end of the dictatorship of General Primo de Rivera. Economic policy was developed under the Constitution,but, despite the differences between the first and second biennium, there was a tendency to maintain the guidelines from the previous stage and in general, sometimes unfairly, it aimed at least to avoid the destabilization of the financial system. Nonetheless, it ultimately failed to achieve its goals, mainly because of the frequent changes of government mediated by a social crisis of greater significance that had relegated economic issues into the background.
    Date: 2021–12
  6. By: Jason Lennard; Finn Meinecke; Solomos Solomou
    Abstract: What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the “expectations channel” - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A VAR model suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.
    Keywords: policy regime change, economic history, Great Depression
    JEL: E30 E60 N14
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Cermeño, Alexandra L. (Lund University); Palma, Nuno (University of Manchester; ICS, Universidade de Lisboa; CEPR); Pistola, Renato (ICS, Universidade de Lisboa)
    Abstract: Portugal’s real income per head grew by a factor of eight during the second half of the twentieth century, a period of fast convergence towards Western European standards of living. We use a new sample of about 2,000 children to document trends in the prevalence of stunting and wasting in the city of Lisbon between 1945 and 1994. We find that stunting and wasting fell quickly in the 1950s and 1960s. This happened for males and females, and for infants (0 to 36 months of age) as well as children (2 to 10 years of age). We additionally use a sample of 17,000 young adult males covering the entire country which shows a similar decrease in the incidence of wasting and stunting, with the expected time lag. We discuss these trends in relation to changes in income and public policy which affected the ontogenetic environment of children.
    Keywords: anthropometrics, economic development, poverty, child health JEL Classification: I15, N34, O15
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Kouli, Yaman; König, Jörg
    Abstract: Historiography on European integration before 1914 has acknowledged that the level of entanglements between the European nation-states was quite advanced. Indeed, historians were able to confirm a high level of cooperation on the legal, social, technical and even political level. And yet, the exact level of economic integration has hitherto been unknown. In this paper, we quantitatively analyse the level of economic integration in Europe. We develop a comprehensive economic integration index for the period 1880-1913. By exploiting existing as well as newly available databases, we quantitatively analyse the longterm development of European economic integration for 15 European countries. Subindices are developed to measure for each country and each year the extent of European market integration, economic homogeneity and cyclical symmetry. We exploit the data using principal-component-analysis (PCA). Moreover, we test for country-specific characteristics via regression analysis and cluster analysis. With our findings, we are able to show that European economic integration actually declined during the years between 1880 and 1913 and got more fragmentated. Even though the exact picture depends on the country, the tendency is still undeniable: during the "first wave of globalisation", European economic integration levels moved downwards.
    Keywords: Economic History,European Economic Integration
    JEL: C38 N93 F15
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: Africa and India share a long history of trade, investment and slavery. The Portuguese alone brought up to 80,000 slaves from Mozambique to India since the 16th century. Unlike slaves in other parts of the world, African slaves, soldiers, and traders had a strong military and cultural influence on India's culture and society. Some of the slaves even held privileged positions. Today India competes with other global players, especially China, for African resources and markets. Growing racism and Afrophobia towards African migrants, however, could hamper the ambitions of the New-Delhi government. India's social networks and political leaders are increasingly looking for scapegoats and “strangers” to blame for their failures due to religious, racist and linguistic prejudice. Racism and Afrophobia did not appear first under Modi's administration, but they have become more daunting and contagious. The famous Indian writer and political activist, Arundhati Roy, rated Indian racism towards black people as almost worse than white peoples‟ racism. For example, Africans, who were often summarily disqualified as „Nigerians‟, were generally accused of being drug dealers and even suspected of „cannibalism‟. Yet, Indian authorities at all political levels did not effectively counter this. On the contrary, they not infrequently encouraged these prejudices. Modi, for example, compared breakaway Indian regions to „Somalia‟.
    Keywords: Inde, Afrique, migration internationale, xénophobie, Afrophobie, racisme, violence politique, relations afro-indiennes, économie informel, immigration illégale, migration forcée, traite négrière, minorités, envois de fonds
    JEL: F16 F22 F24 F51 F54 I24 I31 J46 J61 N15 N35 O15 O17 O53 Z13
    Date: 2021–12–16
  10. By: Loïc Bonneval (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, Centre Max Weber UMR 5283, F-69007 Lyon, France); Florence Goffette-Nagot (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Zhejin Zhao (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)
    Abstract: This paper reexamines the debated issue of the effects of rent control policy on the rental market. We investigate the impact on rents of three different forms of rent regulation in Lyon over a 78-years period. We use an original historical dataset which allows us to track regulation changes, rent paid and tenant moves for a long-run panel of flats. Using a difference-in-differences method, we estimate the impact of regulation on rents depending on the type of rent control over different economic periods. Our results show that the impact of rent control deepened over time. Starting with a 11% reduction in rents between 1914 and 1929, it reached a decrease by 47% in the regulated rental market in the 1949-1968 period. We do not find any increase in rents in the unregulated segment of the rental market, which could be a result of a reduction in housing investment in the long run.
    Keywords: Rent control; Housing policy; Difference-in-differences
    JEL: R38 N93 N94
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Fukushima, Nanna (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of the 1956 UK Clean Air Act on infant mortality. Using novel data, I exploit the seasonality in demand for coal to analyze the effects of a staggered expansion of a ban on local smoke emission. The findings show that the policy eliminated the seasonal difference in air quality as well as infant mortality. According to my instrumental variables estimates, the reduction in air pollution between 1957 and 1973 can account for 70 % of the observed decline in infant mortality during the same period. The results are relevant to explain the fast decline in post-war infant mortality in developed countries and understand the effect of pollution on infant mortality in many developing countries.
    Keywords: Health economics, Child mortality, Air pollution, Air pollution control JEL Classification: I12, J13, N540, Q51, Q53, Q58
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Rocco Rante (Musée du Louvre - Musée du Louvre); Federico Trionfetti (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the new approach studying variations in city size and the impact that the Silk Road had on the structure of cities, demonstrated through the study of economic aspects of the Bukhara oasis. We use archaeological data, compare the ancient economy to modern ones, use modern economic theory and methods to understand ancient society, and use what we have learned about the ancient economy to understand modern economies better. In sum, we explore the past through the present and the latter through the former. Our main finding is the generation of models able to answer to the city-size distribution in different territories, comparing them between the past and the present. This study first revealed that, through Zipf's Law, we found similarities between modern post-Industrial Revolution and medieval economics. Secondly, we also found that in ancient times the structure of the city was linked with the local economic demand. We have demonstrated this through the study of cities along the Silk Road.
    Date: 2021–11
  13. By: Lynch, Owen
    Abstract: FROM THE REVIEW: You see, I'm trying to give you a picture of what it is like to read this book, and the experience of having a tantalizing insight dangled in front of you but then being forced to read far more history and statistics than you would really like to understand it is essentially all of Capital as Power. Capital as Power is long, but extremely full of content [...] Bichler and Nitzan write in a very engaging way; not necessarily easy to read but certainly action-packed. And there are many, many interesting historical nuggets in the book, like the history of GM's EV1 car. [U]nlike the laws of economics which mostly claim to be universal across time, the strength of Capital as Power is that they can identify what things are true about some periods, and not of others, and integrate these assumptions into their models. In other words, rather than being a general theory of economics, Capital as Power is a general theory of the space of possible capitalist politics, or as Bichler and Nitzan seem to be so happy to coin, a general theory of possible capitalist creorders.
    Keywords: capital as power
    JEL: P16 P1
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Barde, Sylvain (University of Kent); Klein, Alexander (University of Kent)
    Abstract: This paper constructs general road transport costs in the United States between 1955 and 2010 combining stock measures of transportation network with fuel consumption, driving speed, fuel prices, and labour costs. This results in a novel data set of 3105×3105 county-pairs for seven benchmark years. Using a county-level counterfactual analysis, we precisely quantify the reduction of the transport cost generated by Interstate Highway System. We document an inverted U-shape pattern for road transport costs, peaking in 1980, explained by initially increasing labor costs, followed by cost reductions due to trucking industry deregulation and the completion of the IHS.
    Keywords: Transport costs, Interstate Highway System, Road Network, Dijkstra’s algorithm JEL Classification: N72, N92, O18, R41
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Daniel Oesch (University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: A popular thesis in social stratification argues that the middle class is declining. Our chapter argues that this thesis is flawed both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, it mixes up the middle and working class and, empirically, misrepresents the trends that shape the class structure. Our chapter discusses the main concepts of class and proposes a model that grasps the class structure of contemporary Western societies. Based on clearer concepts, labour force surveys clearly show that the early 21st century did not see the demise, but the expansion of the (salaried) middle class. Never in history had so many people been working in managerial, professional and technical jobs. By contrast, over the last four decades, the working class experienced a massive employment decline – and this decline had far-reaching consequences. It has vastly reduced its political clout as shown in decreasing trade union density and strike activity as well as in rising income inequality. Moreover, it has led to a fundamental realignment of class voting and contributed to growing family instability. Rather than eroding the middle class, the last decades have put an end to the working-class century.
    Keywords: Social classes; Middle class; Employment structure; Working class
    Date: 2022–01
  16. By: Andrea Beller (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Shoshana Grossbard (San Diego State University); Ana Fava (Federal University of ABC); Marouane Idmansour (Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion)
    Abstract: In the period 1960-1980 Gary Becker founded workshops for graduate students in economics, first the Labor Workshop at Columbia University and then the Applications of Economics Workshop at the University of Chicago. The workshops fostered novel applications of economics dealing with labor, consumption, household production, household formation, human capital, crime and politics. We document the high proportion of women in these workshops, comparing (1) Columbia to Chicago, (2) the Columbia Labor Workshop over various periods, under the leadership of Becker, Mincer, or both, and (3) the Becker-founded workshops to other workshops at Columbia. We estimate regressions of the odds that a PhD was awarded to a woman for students at Columbia or Chicago who graduated between 1960 and 1980, as a function of whether and when the student participated in a Becker-founded workshop. Tentative explanations are offered for inter-university and period variation in odds that graduates were women. In addition, we compare gender ratios of graduates from Columbia and Chicago, where Becker-founded workshops were available during all or part of the period, with that of students at universities located nearby, NYU and Northwestern, where Becker did not found workshops.
    Keywords: graduate education, graduation rates, gender ratios in economics
    JEL: A23 A14 J16
    Date: 2021–12
  17. By: Giovanni Facchini; Timothy J. Hatton; Max F. Steinhardt
    Abstract: The Immigration Act of 1965 marked a dramatic shift in policy and one with major long term consequences for the volume and composition of immigration to the United States. Here we explore the political economy of a reform that has been overshadowed by the Civil Rights and Great Society programs. We find that public opinion was against expanding immigration, but it was more favorable to abolishing the old country of origin quota system. Votes in the House of Representatives and the Senate were more closely linked to opinion on abolishing the country of origin quotas than to public opinion on the volume of immigration. Support for immigration reform initially followed in the slipstream of civil rights legislation both among members of Congress and their constituents. The final House vote, on a more restrictive version of the bill, was instead more detached from state-level public opinion on civil rights and gained more support from those whose constituents wanted to see immigration decreased.
    Keywords: US immigration policy, 1965 Immigration Act, Congressional voting
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Araújo, Daniel (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Carrillo, Bladimir (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
    Abstract: Religion and beliefs in the supernatural are present in all societies. Yet, studies about the economic roots of small-scale supernatural belief systems remain quite limited. In this work, we test the anthropological hypothesis that historical dependence on pastoralism favored the adoption of customs that contributed to the reduction in witchcraft beliefs. Pastoral societies were characterized by the use of social strategies as a way of mitigating the risks inherent in pastoral production, making the practice of accusations of witchcraft a barrier to maintaining their existing social ties. Consistent with this hypothesis, we document that people descending from historically more pastoral societies have a lower level of contemporary belief in witches. The results using an instrumental variable based on the ecological determinants of pastoralism corroborates our main analysis. We further show that the main mechanism behind our result seems to be pastoralist groups' freedom of movement and an increase in social ties, proxied by the level of trust in relatives, neighbors, courts, and local councils. We also show that the reduced belief in witches increases references to witchcraft in pastoral societies' oral traditions, narratives, stories, jokes, and proverbs, possibly because the lack of fear makes pastoralists more willing to speak, sing and joke about the supernatural. Finally, we test for the importance of cultural persistence by examining people who live today in locations with low levels of suitability for pastoralism but belong to ethnic groups that have historically lived in areas with high levels of suitability and show that the reduction in belief in witches persists.
    Keywords: culture, pastoralism, persistence, superstition, witchcraft
    JEL: O10 Z10 Z13 Z19
    Date: 2021–12
  19. By: Alkan, Berkay
    Abstract: In this paper I investigate the empirical relationship between economic growth (as measured by growth in real GDP) and inflation in Turkey. We use a relatively large dataset spanning from 1960 to 2020. Our correlation analysis indicates that the nature of the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Turkey is substantially different before and after early 1980s.
    Keywords: growth; inflation; Turkish economy
    JEL: E31 N10 O40
    Date: 2021–12–25
  20. By: Jacob Burgdorf (U.S. Department of Justice)
    Date: 2021–11
  21. By: Clément Lenoble (CIHAM - Histoire, Archéologie et Littératures des mondes chrétiens et musulmans médiévaux - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - AU - Avignon Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The hypothesis put forward in this article is that accounting practices constituted a technique of asceticism and government within religious communities in the late Middle Ages, which inspired merchants to develop an ascetic conception of their own accounting practice and profession. This requires a fresh look at the reasons for the legitimacy and rationality that the use of registers and figures conferred on economic transactions and those who carried them out. To do this, we examine the registers of fifteen institutions in Provence and Italy, eight chapters of canons, a Cluniac priory and six convents of the mendicant orders, as well as manuals and writings of merchants. The different ways in which the accounting instrument is used and the uses to which it is put within the Church coincide with the different forms of religious life, economy of salvation and devotional practices offered by these institutions. The comparative analysis of the methods of auditing the accounts sheds light on the governmental and ascetic functions of accounting entries in Dominican and especially Franciscan convents, where the practices of rendering accounts are more regular and occupy a very important place in the government of communities and orders, as well as in the daily observance of the rule of poverty. These functions derive from a very long normative, theological and practical tradition dating back to the early days of Christianity and monasticism where material and divine accountability, obedience, fidelity and good administration have been assimilated to each other. A reading of the manuals and writings of merchants reveals that these conceptions were adopted by them. This allows us to appreciate in a new light the functions of the ciphering of commercial exchanges and the rationalities underlying these practices.
    Abstract: La hipótesis que se plantea en este artículo es que las prácticas contables constituían una técnica de ascetismo y gobierno dentro de las comunidades religiosas de la Baja Edad Media, lo que inspiró a los comerciantes a desarrollar una concepción ascética de su propia práctica y profesión contable. Ello exige una nueva mirada a las razones de la legitimidad y racionalidad que el uso de registros y cifras confería a las transacciones económicas y a quienes las realizaban. Para ello, examinamos los registros de quince instituciones de Provenza e Italia, ocho capítulos de canónigos, un priorato cluniacense y seis conventos de las órdenes mendicantes, así como manuales y escritos de comerciantes. Las diferentes formas de utilizar el instrumento contable y los usos que se le dan dentro de la Iglesia coinciden con las diferentes formas de vida religiosa, economía de la salvación y prácticas devocionales que ofrecen estas instituciones. El análisis comparativo de los métodos de auditoría de las cuentas arroja luz sobre las funciones gubernamentales y ascéticas de los asientos contables en los conventos dominicos y, sobre todo, franciscanos, donde las prácticas de rendición de cuentas son más regulares y ocupan un lugar muy importante en el gobierno de las comunidades y órdenes, así como en la observancia diaria de la regla de pobreza. Estas funciones se derivan de una larguísima tradición normativa, teológica y práctica que se remonta a los primeros tiempos del cristianismo y del monacato, donde se han asimilado la responsabilidad material y la divina, la obediencia, la fidelidad y la buena administración. La lectura de los manuales y escritos de los comerciantes revela que estas concepciones fueron adoptadas por ellos. Esto nos permite apreciar bajo una nueva luz las funciones de cifrado de los intercambios comerciales y las racionalidades que subyacen a estas prácticas.
    Abstract: L'hypothèse défendue dans cet article est que les pratiques comptables ont constitué une technique d'ascèse et de gouvernement au sein des communautés religieuses à la fin du Moyen Âge, ce qui a inspiré aux marchands une conception ascétique de leur propre pratique comptable et de leur profession. Cela suppose de s'interroger à nouveaux frais sur les raisons de la légitimité et de la rationalité que la mise en registre et le recours aux chiffres confèrent aux opérations économiques et à ceux qui les réalisent. Pour cela, nous nous penchons sur les registres de quinze institutions en Provence et en Italie, huit chapitres de chanoines, un prieuré clunisien et six couvents des ordres mendiants ainsi que sur des manuels et des écrits de marchands. Les différentes modalités de recours à l'instrument comptable et les usages qui en sont faits au sein de l'Église coïncident avec les différentes formes de vie religieuse, d'économie du salut et de pratiques dévotionnelles proposées par ces institutions. L'analyse comparée des méthodes de vérification des comptes éclaire les fonctions gouvernementales et ascétiques des écritures comptables dans les couvents dominicains et surtout franciscains où les pratiques de reddition des comptes sont plus régulières et occupent une place très importante dans le gouvernement des communautés et des ordres, ainsi que dans l'observance quotidienne de la règle de pauvreté. Ces fonctions dérivent d'une très longue tradition normative, théologique et pratique remontant aux premiers temps du christianisme et du monachisme où comptabilités matérielles et divines, obéissance, fidélité et bonne administration ont été assimilées les unes aux autres. La lecture des manuels et des écrits de marchands révèle que ces conceptions ont été adoptées par ces derniers. Cela permet d'apprécier sous un nouveau jour les fonctions de la mise en chiffre des échanges commerciaux et les rationalités qui sous-tendent ces pratiques.
    Keywords: Middle Ages,Christianity,Accounting,Asceticism,Merchant Economy,Economic Rationality,Moyen Âge,Chrétienté,Comptabilité,Ascétisme,Économie marchande,Rationalité économique
    Date: 2021
  22. By: Carlos Bianchi (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Pablo Galaso (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Sergio Palomeque (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Santiago Picasso (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Adrián Rodríguez Miranda (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This document compiles, systematizes and analyses patent data in Uruguay for the first time. For this purpose, it uses the official records of patents filed at the Uruguayan Patent Office. The paper explains the processing of the original records to generate a database for research purposes. Subsequently, a descriptive study of the data is carried out, analyzing the temporal evolution of patents between 1970 and 2018, the territorial distribution of invention activities in the country's regions, the technological specialization of inventions, the main companies and organizations, and the participation of actors residing abroad. The results provide some interesting findings about innovation processes in the country. These include the growth experienced by the number of patents registered since 1990, the high territorial concentration, as well as a positive association between patenting levels and regional development indicators. This evidence also illustrates the diverse possibilities presented by patent data to study innovation processes in countries such as Uruguay.
    Keywords: O31, O54, P48
    Date: 2021–10
  23. By: Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick); Ben Zissimos (Exeter University Business School)
    Abstract: From a wide-ranging historical survey, Acemoglu and Robinson conclude that the preservation of liberty depends on being in a ‘narrow corridor’ where there is a balance of power between the state and society. We first examine the support Binmore's game-theoretic treatment of Social Contracts provides for such a ‘narrow corridor’ of liberty and justice – and what extremes to expect without them. We also consider how the biological model of Competing Species helps to describe the dynamics of conflicting powers outside the narrow corridor– where, as in contemporary Russia and China, any Social Contracts that exist are neither free nor fair.
    Keywords: liberty, social contracts, repeated games, Competing Species, anarchy, Despotism, Neofeudalism JEL Classification: C70, C73, P00, Z13
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Dora Costa
    Abstract: Whether and how a paternal health shock cascades across multiple generations to affect descendant health is understudied even though a link between ancestral living conditions and descendant health may constitute an important source of differences in the stock of health capital across families and thus across ethnic, racial and social groups. I study how a paternal health shock affects grandchildren's longevity in a unique setting where the ancestral stressor is the grandfather's ex-POW status in the US Civil War (1861-5) and the children are born after the war. Ancestral stress is associated with longevity after age 45 of male-line grandsons but not of granddaughters or female-line grandchildren. I rule out transmission through socioeconomic channels and direct cultural transmission from grandfather to grandson. An epigenetic explanation is consistent with observed male-line transmission at epigenetically sensitive ancestral ages and mediation by own late gestational conditions. Consistent with epigenetic reprogramming depending on the in-utero environment, the association between the veteran's ex-POW status and that of his male-line descendants declines across generations.
    JEL: I14 I19 N31 N32
    Date: 2021–12
  25. By: Wurm, Laura
    Abstract: How does futures trading affect spot price volatility? This paper uses a unique early-twentieth century natural experiment to test what happens when futures trading no longer exists. In 1903, futures trading in the Viennese grain market was banned. The permanency of this ban makes it ideal for studying its effect on volatility, using a difference-in-difference framework. Prices from Budapest, a market operating under similar conditions but unaffected by the ban, are used as a control. This paper finds increased spot price volatility and lower pricing accuracy because the information-transmission and risk-allocation functions of the futures market were no longer maintained.
    Keywords: futures trading,volatility,information,market regulation,speculation,commodity markets,agricultural economics,Austro-Hungarian Empire
    JEL: N23 G13 G14 G18 G41 E65
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Rainer Franz Kotschy
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether and to what extent long-run trends in population health affected income inequality in the United States over the period 1960-2000. To isolate exogenous variation in health over time, the analysis exploits the sharp decline in cardiovascular disease mortality across states that originated from medical advances in the treatment and prevention of these diseases after 1960. The results demonstrate that health improvements contributed to rising income inequality through mechanisms related to education.
    Keywords: population health, aging, Gini coefficient, skill-biased technical change
    JEL: I14 I24 J11
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Merima Ali; Odd-Helge Fjeldstad
    Abstract: The paper examines the legacy of pre-colonial centralization on tax compliance norms of citizens in contemporary Uganda. By combining geo-referenced anthropological data on pre-colonial ethnic homelands with survey data from several rounds of the Afrobarometer Survey, respondents from the historically centralized homelands are found to exhibit a higher willingness to pay tax compared to respondents from non-centralized areas.
    Keywords: Tax compliance, Uganda
    Date: 2021
  28. By: María Aguilera-Díaz; Yuri Reina-Aranza
    Abstract: Este trabajo analiza la evolución de indicadores económicos y sociales del departamento de Sucre, con el fin de resaltar los cambios, avances y retos más importantes después de un poco más de 50 años de existencia. La estructura económica del departamento evidencia cambios sustanciales. Si bien el sector primario ha sido el más significativo en la economía, su contribución se ha reducido en el tiempo, dándole paso a la actividad económica enfocada en los servicios. Sin embargo, la terciarización de la economía no guarda una relación con el desarrollo económico del departamento, por lo que no se considera una terciarización genuina. Los indicadores sociales muestran algunos avances como la reducción en la mortalidad, el aumento en los años de educación aprobados y mejoras en aspectos críticos como vivienda y servicios públicos. Sin embargo, la baja calidad de la educación, la alta informalidad laboral y las cifras de pobreza por encima del total nacional continúan siendo los desafíos más importantes por resolver. **** ABSTRACT: This work analyzes the evolution of economic and social indicators of the department of Sucre, to highlight the most important changes, advances, and challenges after 50 years of existence. The economic structure of the department shows substantial changes. Although the primary sector has been one of the most significant in the economy, its contribution has been reduced over time, giving rise to the tertiary sector. However, the increase in the tertiary sector is not related to the economic development of the department, so it is not considered a genuine tertiarization. The social indicators show some progress such as the reduction in mortality, the increase in the educational level and improvements in critical aspects such as housing and public services. However, the low quality of education, high informality, and poverty continue to be the most important challenges to be solved.
    Keywords: Sucre, Caribe colombiano, sectores económicos, Sucre, Colombian Caribbean, sectors of the economy
    JEL: N96 Q10 R11 R12
    Date: 2021–12
  29. By: Rebeca Riella (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This paper provides, for the first time, estimations about the evolution and determinant factors for slave prices in Montevideo between 1760 and 1825. It uses a database built from the post-mortem inventories conserved in the Judicial Archive in Uruguay; which contains 503 records. Observations made by appraisers regarding slaves, show that the attributes that affect their price setting are: their health and nutritional status, job qualifications and age. These variables, along with sex, are tested as price determinants through the using of econometric models. The results, in line with findings for other regions of the Americas, show that age, illness, and skill qualifications are significant variables to explain price. However, sex was not proven to be significant. Additionally, the data recovered is not enough to conclude that the price of slaves has suffered any significant increases or decreases in this period.
    Keywords: slave labor, slave prices, Montevideo, colonial Latin-America
    JEL: N36
    Date: 2021–10
  30. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Sayar Karmakar (Department of Statistics, University of Florida, 230 Newell Drive, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)
    Abstract: We use monthly data covering a century-long sample period (1915-2021) to study whether geopolitical risk helps to forecast subsequent gold returns and gold volatility. We account not only for geopolitical threats and acts, but also for 39 country-specific sources of geopolitical risk. The response of subsequent returns and volatility is heterogeneous across countries and nonlinear. We find that accounting for geopolitical risk at the country level improves forecast accuracy especially when we use random forests to estimate our forecasting models. As an extension, we report empirical evidence on the predictive value of the country-level sources of geopolitical risk for two other candidate safe-haven assets, oil and silver, over the sample periods 1900–2021 and 1915–2021, respectively. Our results have important implications for the portfolio decisions of investors who seek a safe haven in times of heightened geopolitical tensions.
    Keywords: Gold, Geopolitical Risk, Forecasting, Returns, Volatility, Random Forests
    JEL: C22 D80 H56 Q02
    Date: 2022–01
  31. By: Noll, Franklin; Lipkin, Andrei
    Abstract: We are heading for a cashless world. At some point, we will say goodbye to all those pieces of paper and polymer and switch to an electronic alternative. The only problem with these statements is that people have been saying them since the late 1960s. Banknotes have a robust technology and will be around for quite some years to come. What is needed is a transitional device that will ease the transition from nineteenth-century cash to twenty-first-century digital currency. The answer is a hybrid banknote. Basically, a hybrid banknote is a physical banknote on a paper or polymer substrate that can transfer value over an electronic network. It is denominated and has all the physical properties of a traditional banknote, allowing it to pass hand to hand. However, when the need arises, the user can access an electronic network and transfer the denominated value off the hybrid banknote. In this paper, we look at the past and present of hybrid banknotes, identifying their two basic forms—smart banknotes and cryptobanknotes—and how they differ. We also offer three hybrid banknote models that can be used to address pressing needs in payments technology.
    Keywords: hybrid banknotes, smart banknotes, cryptobanknotes, central bank digital currency
    JEL: E4 E5
    Date: 2021–09–16
  32. By: Ferrara, Andreas (University of Pittsburgh); Testa, Patrick A. (Tulane University); Zhou, Liyang (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: A common problem in applied research involves harmonizing geographic units across time or different levels of aggregation. One approach is to use “crosswalks†that associate factors located within some “origin†unit to different “reference†units based on relative areas. We develop an alternative approach based on relative population, accounting for heterogeneities in urbanization within counties. We construct population-based crosswalks for 1790 through 2020, mapping county-level data across U.S. Censuses as well as from counties to congressional districts. Using official Census data for congressional districts, we show that population-based weights outperform area-based ones in terms of similarity to official data
    Keywords: boundary harmonization; geographic crosswalks; spatial population distribution JEL Classification: R12, C18, C59
    Date: 2021
  33. By: Carine Meyimdjui; Diego B. P. Gomes; Marina M. Tavares; Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
    Abstract: Epidemics have disrupted lives for centuries with deleterious human capital and economic repercussions. In this paper, we investigate how epidemics episodes have impacted school dropouts in developing countries, considering 623 epidemics episodes across countries from 1970 to 2019. Our estimates show that, on average, epidemics reduce completion rates by about 2.6 and 2.1 percentage points in primary and lower secondary education respectively, with girls more severely affected than boys. Using detailed micro data for Senegal, we also estimate the potential loss of lifelong earnings and find that the potential labor earnings loss from dropping out of primary and secondary school is almost double for girls than for boys.
    Keywords: Epidemics, Education, Development
    Date: 2021–11–05
  34. By: Lee, King Fuei
    Abstract: In this study, we investigated the presence of the Halloween effect in the long-term reversal anomaly in the US. After examining the cross-sectional returns of loser-minus-winner portfolios formed on prior returns over the period of 1931–2021, we found evidence of stronger returns during winter months versus summer months. Specifically, the effect appeared to be driven by a significant winter-summer seasonality in the portfolio of small-capitalisation losers and a lack of the Halloween effect in the portfolio of large-capitalisation winners. This study’s results were found to be robust with respect to alternative measures of the long-term reversal effect, differing sub-periods, the inclusion of the January effect and outlier considerations, as well as regarding small- and large-sized companies.
    Keywords: Halloween effect, Sell-in-May, long-term reversal, market anomaly
    JEL: G00
    Date: 2021–11–29
  35. By: Alain Raybaut (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS)
    Keywords: Léon Dupriez, International Economic Association
    Date: 2021–12
  36. By: Agnès Festré (GREDEG CNRS; Université Côte d'Azur, France); Stein Østbye (University of Tromsø, Norway)
    Abstract: In this paper we revisit Michael Polanyi's overall contribution to the understanding of tacit knowledge and its implications in philosophy of science with a focus on experimental research in social sciences. We first review and discuss Polanyi's references to experiments in general. An extensive number of these experiments are summarised in tabular form in the Appendix, distinguishing between experiments on the phenomenon of tacit knowledge, discussed in Subsection 2.1, and experiments on the epistemological implications of tacit knowledge, discussed in Subsection 2.2 Secondly, we discuss tacit knowledge as a confounding factor and limitation to replicability in social science experiments (Subsection 3.1) and tacit knowledge as a phenomenon to be elicitated through controlled variation in experimental design (Subsection 3.2). In the concluding section, we call for rejuvenation of the study of social epistemology and the social construction of science, suggested to start with Polanyi and his generation, where attention now should be directed to social science rather than hard science.
    Keywords: philosophy of science, tacit knowledge, methodology, experiments, replication
    JEL: B25 B31 B41 B5 C9
    Date: 2021–12
  37. By: Anderson, Karen M.
    Abstract: Sweden is often hailed as a model for far-reaching pension reform. The comprehensive 1994/1998 reform replaced the existing statutory system that had been in place since 1960 with a new system based on notional defined contributions, individual investment accounts, and a guarantee pension. The reformed pension system also includes "automatic stabilizers" that ensure that pension liabilities and assets remain in balance. Sector-wide occupational pension schemes provide a topup to public pensions. This study analyses the origins, negotiation, and effects of the reformed pension system. It discusses the weaknesses of the preexisting system and the broad political compromise that emerged in the 1990s around reform and continues to shape the direction of policy change. The study also ex-amines the role of occupational pensions in the overall pension system, the role of unions in shaping the reform, and the links between labour market performance and the pension system.
    Date: 2021
  38. By: Henselmann, Klaus
    Abstract: Die Rechnungslegung in Europa unterliegt einer gewissen Harmonisierung aufgrund von Richtlinien der Europäischen Union (ehemals Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft, Europäische Gemeinschaft). Richtlinien stellen kein unmittelbar geltendes Recht dar, sondern richten sich an die Mitgliedsstaaten und verpflichten diese, ihre nationalen Gesetze entsprechend anzupassen. Dabei enthalten die Richtlinien jedoch teilweise Mitgliedsstaaten-Wahlrechte, die es den Staaten erlauben zwischen mehreren Alternativen zu wählen. Ausgehend von der 4. Gesellschaftsrechtlichen Richtlinie vom 25. Juli 1978 über die Jahresabschlüsse von Kapitalgesellschaften werden die darin enthaltenen einzelnen Mitgliedsstaaten-Wahlrechte erfasst und kategorisiert. Um Ähnlichkeiten und Unterschiede in der Rechnungslegung der Mitgliedsstaaten zu erfassen, wird eine Messung in zwei Dimensionen vorgeschlagen: Auf der einen Skala zwischen einer mehr konservativen oder progressiven Bilanzierung (CP-Score), auf der anderen Skala zwischen einer eher restriktiven oder informativen Offenlegung (RI-Score). Die Betrachtung ändert sich über die Zeit. Einerseits wurden die europäischen Richtlinien zur Rechnungslegung (samt der enthaltenen Optionen) im Laufe der Jahre vielfach geändert, insbesondere ergänzt. Zudem konnte sich die Ausübung der verfügbaren Wahlrechte durch die Mitgliedsstaaten wandeln. Bei Abbildung der CP- und RI-Scores in einem Diagramm ergibt sich ein Pfad, welcher die Entwicklung der Rechnungslegung eines Mitgliedsstaates über die Jahre veranschaulicht.
    Keywords: Rechnungslegung,Europa,Richtlinie,Wahlrechte,Mitgliedsstaaten,konservativ,progressiv,informativ,restriktiv,Geschichte
    JEL: M41 N44
    Date: 2021
  39. By: FUKAO Kyoji; KIM YoungGak; KWON Hyeog Ug
    Abstract: This study presents growth accounting and an analysis of productivity dynamics (as measured by labor productivity and total factor productivity, TFP) covering almost all listed firms in Japan spanning the 55-year period from 1960 to 2015 using the Development Bank of Japan's "Corporate Financial Databank" on listed firms. The results show that during much of the period, the productivity growth of listed firms diverged substantially from macroeconomic productivity trends: during the 1980s, when the Japanese economy received worldwide acclaim, listed firms' productivity growth declined substantially, while during the 1995–2010 period, when Japan's economy registered only tepid growth, listed firms enjoyed steady productivity improvements. Moreover, from 2010 to 2015, when the economy overall accelerated under "Abenomics," listed firms' productivity growth remained sluggish. This divergence in productivity trends between the economy overall and listed firms likely is due to differences in productivity growth between listed firms and other firms – primarily small and medium-sized firms – linked to their size, such as differences in terms of their speed of internationalization, investment in tangible and intangible assets, increases in part-time employment, and restructuring. This finding suggests that understanding differences in productivity linked to firm size is crucial for understanding productivity dynamics within Japan's economy, which has been characterized by a dual structure since the Meiji period. Meanwhile, our analysis of productivity dynamics shows that the contribution of the reallocation of resources from listed firms with low TFP to other listed firms to overall TFP growth among listed firms has been small, and that most of the overall TFP growth was due to TFP growth within firms (i.e., the within effect). The exception is the 2010–2015 period, when resource allocation in the nonmanufacturing sector made a substantial positive contribution to TFP growth.
    Date: 2021–11
  40. By: Dmitry Gornostaev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Sergei Seleznev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexandra Sterkhova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: We compile a database that contains data vintages of a large collection of short-term economic indicators. The main result of the work is a database which is available as an electronic annex to this working paper. The Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia plans to update this database in the future. We also perform an illustrative analysis of the properties of the revisions for a number of indicators. The preliminary results indicate that the magnitude of the revisions is in many cases substantial.
    Keywords: data revisions, data vintages, database, Russia
    JEL: E01 E2
    Date: 2021–07
  41. By: Alexander Cardazzi (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Joshua Martin (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Zachary Rodriguez (Syracuse University)
    Abstract: We present evidence that Earvin ``Magic" Johnson’s announcement that he contracted HIV served as a public-health catalyst for rapidly correcting the public’s understanding of who was at risk of infection. Using a novel identification strategy, we present evidence that there was a large but temporary increase in the number of AIDS diagnoses for heterosexual men following the announcement. This effect was concentrated in areas with greater prior exposure to Johnson. We show that these men were both more likely to have been diagnosed via a formal blood test and less likely to die within one decade of their initial diagnosis – suggesting that Johnson’s announcement caused an intertemporal substitution in testing which prolonged patients’ lifespans as a result of earlier access to medical care. We estimate that Johnson’s announcement caused approximately 800 additional men to discover their underlying AIDS diagnosis and, of whom, were more likely to live at least one decade beyond their initial diagnosis date.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Sexuality, Information Avoidance, Risky Behavior, Basketball
    JEL: I14 D83 J15
    Date: 2021–09
  42. By: Mohammad Alauddin; Clement A Tisdell; Md Abdur Rashid Sarker
    Abstract: Employing Bangladeshi national data on rice production, area and yield disaggregated by dry (irrigated) and wet (rainfed) seasons over a period of 73 years (1947-2019, this paper investigates annual and seasonal dimensions of Bangladeshi rice culture and explores trends, emerging patterns and their implications with a focus on the Green Revolution period since the late 1960s. We find that: (i) structural breaks differ between dry and wet seasons for the same variable or among different variables; (ii) annual and seasonal outputs, areas and yields of overall or HYV rice exhibit slowdown in their increase in the last decade or so; (iii) the diffusion of the HYV rice technology exhibit differential patterns between seasons; (iv) the increasing percentage area under the dry season rice crop has significantly underpinned the increased annual rice yield; and (v) growth in outputs and yields of HYV rice exhibit significant differential patterns by dry and wet seasons. This is the first long-term study of its kind and contributes to the existing literature in several important ways by (a) investigates rice production in Bangladesh disaggregated by broad crop seasons (dry and wet); (b) identifying structural breaks employing a priori reasoning, scatter plots and appropriate econometric tests instead of applying arbitrary cut-off points; and (c) exploring implications of the seasonal dimensions of rice cultivation in Bangladesh.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2021–12–20
  43. By: Jean-Felix Brouillette; Charles I. Jones; Peter J. Klenow
    Abstract: We construct a measure of consumption-equivalent welfare for Black and White Americans. Our statistic incorporates life expectancy, consumption, leisure, and inequality, with mortality rates playing a key role quantitatively. According to our estimates, welfare for Black Americans was 43% of that for White Americans in 1984 and rose to 60% by 2019. Going back further in time (albeit with more limited data), the gap was even larger, with Black welfare equal to just 28% of White welfare in 1940. On the one hand, there has been remarkable progress for Black Americans: the level of their consumption-equivalent welfare increased by a factor of 28 between 1940 and 2019, when aggregate consumption per person rose a more modest 5-fold. On the other hand, despite this remarkable progress, the welfare gap in 2019 remains disconcertingly large. Mortality from COVID-19 has temporarily reversed a decade of progress, lowering Black welfare by 17% while reducing White welfare by 10%.
    JEL: I31 J15 O40
    Date: 2021–12
  44. By: Leonid Kogan; Dimitris Papanikolaou; Lawrence D. W. Schmidt; Bryan Seegmiller
    Abstract: We construct new technology indicators using textual analysis of patent documents and occupation task descriptions that span almost two centuries (1850–2010). At the industry level, improvements in technology are associated with higher labor productivity but a decline in the labor share. Exploiting variation in the extent certain technologies are related to specific occupations, we show that technological innovation has been largely associated with worse labor market outcomes—wages and employment—for incumbent workers in related occupations using a combination of public-use and confidential administrative data. Panel data on individual worker earnings reveal that less educated, older, and more highly-paid workers experience significantly greater declines in average earnings and earnings risk following related technological advances. We reconcile these facts with the standard view of technology-skill complementarity using a model that allows for skill displacement.
    JEL: J01 J24 J3 N3 N6 O3 O4
    Date: 2021–12
  45. By: Marinov, Eduard
    Abstract: The article summarizes the historical development of the European policy on migration since the establishment of the European Economic Community. The study introduces a classification of five stages of development based on the extent and deepness of the policy’s communitarization and the ways decisions in this field are being taken. Based on the discussion and analysis of these five development stages, including the current framework in the field introduced after the 2015 migrant crisis some conclusions on the future of the EU migration policy are drawn.
    Keywords: migration, asylum, EU external borders, area of freedom, security and justice, 2015 migrant crisis
    JEL: F22 N34 O15 O52
    Date: 2020

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