|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2022‒01‒03
25 papers chosen by |
| By: | Oliver Lewis; Avner Offer |
| Abstract: | Why are railways mostly in the public sector? Interest rates define a time limit for markets. Projects with longer break-evens cannot be funded by business alone. Corporate ‘franchise’ arrangements overcome the limit by means of revenue guarantees which transfer risks to government. Innovations originate bottom-up in private enterprise. Positive externalities create demand for universal provision but scaling up cannot be financed commercially. In the British railway manias of the 1830s and 1840s speculative fever overwhelmed prudence. Overinvestment left an excessive infrastructure legacy and wiped out windfall profits. In other countries railways required external support. Expanding access give rise to stand-offs with investors which ended up in government regulation or takeover. The tramway boom of 1870 to 1914 followed this pattern, initially with horse power and then electricity. In the UK railway privatisation of the 1990s, the free market delusion was confounded by the infrastructure requirement for long-term commitment. |
| Keywords: | Railroads, privatisation, project evaluation, public services, scope of government |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_195&r= |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Garbinti, Bertrand; Piketty, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides historical series on the evolution of the share of inherited wealth in aggregate private wealth in Europe (France, U.K., Germany, Sweden) and the United States over the 1900-2010 period. Until 1910, the inheritance share was very high in Europe (70-80%). It then fell abruptly following the 1914-1945 shocks, down to to about 30-40% during the 1950-1980 period, and it back to 50-60% around 2010 (and rising). The U.S. pattern also appears to be U-shaped, albeit less marked, and with signiÖcant uncertainty regarding recent trends, due to data limitations. We discuss possible interpretations for these long run patterns. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2015-07&r= |
| By: | Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério |
| Abstract: | This working paper summarizes the evolution of the banking sector in Portugal, both from the perspective of the regime established by the government, and from the perspective of the main firms that worked in the sector. This is the third working paper of a set that already includes working paper no. 68 on the railroad sector and working paper no. 69 on the tobacco sector, with the final purpose of preparing a Business History of Portugal. |
| Keywords: | Portugal, setor bancário, empresas bancárias JEL classification: G21 bancos — banks |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:gheswp:wp752021&r= |
| By: | Barry Eichengreen; Alain Naef |
| Abstract: | Using newly assembled data on foreign exchange market intervention, we construct a daily index of exchange market pressure during the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System, allowing us to pinpoint when and where the crisis was most severe. Our analysis focuses on a neglected factor in the crisis: the role of the weak dollar in intra-EMS tensions. We provide new evidence of the contribution of a falling dollar-Deutschmark exchange rate to pressure on EMS currencies. |
| JEL: | F0 F3 F31 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29488&r= |
| By: | Pauly, Stefan; Stipanicic, Fernando |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new causal evidence of the impact of improvements in air travel during the beginning of the Jet Age on the creation and diffusion of knowledge. We digitize airlines’ historical flight schedules and construct a novel data set of the flight network in the United States. Between 1951 and 1966, travel time between locations more than 2,000km apart decreased on average by 41%. The reduction in travel time explains 33% of the increase in knowledge diffusion as measured by patent citations. The increase in knowledge diffusion further caused an increase in the creation of new knowledge. The results provide evidence that jet airplanes led to innovation convergence across locations and contributed to the shift in innovation activity towards the South and the West of the United States. |
| Keywords: | O31, O33, R41, N72 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2112&r= |
| By: | Omang O. Messono (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of the historical prevalence of infectious diseases on contemporary entrepreneurship. Previous studies reveal the persistence of the effects of historical diseases on innovation, through the channel of culture. Drawing on the epidemiological origin of institutions, we propose a framework which argues that the impact of infectious disease prevalence on contemporary entrepreneurship is mediated by property rights. The central hypothesis posits that a guarantee of property rights reduces the effect of past diseases on entrepreneurship. Using data from 125 countries, we find strong and robust evidence on the proposed hypothesis and other results. Property rights are higher in countries where the prevalence of diseases was low, which leads to good entrepreneurship scores. In contrast, countries with high disease prevalence did not have time to develop strong institutions to secure property rights. This explains their low level of entrepreneurship today. These results are robust to alternative methods and measures of property rights. Furthermore, our results also confirm the level of development, culture and the digitalization of economies as transmission channels between past diseases and the current level of entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; institutions; diseases; property rights |
| JEL: | I0 J24 I21 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/096&r= |
| By: | Marco Molteni |
| Abstract: | This paper documents a new dataset on the distress of Italian joint-stock banks in 1926-1936. It employs classified information from the archives of Italian banking supervision to identify both outright and hidden bank failures. Providing the first all-embracing account of the crisis of small and medium banks in Italy during the Great Depression, it shows that once hidden distress is considered, their crisis was more severe than previously thought. Measured by total assets of banks involved, the distress of joint-stock banks would be considered a 'systemic crisis' by today standards. While previous research has mainly focused on the distress of large universal banks, this research opens new questions on our interpretation of the impact of bank distress in interwar Italy. Important regional patterns emerge, and these should receive more attention in future research. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_194&r= |
| By: | Alexandra S. Kolesnik (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksandr V. Rusanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Within heritage studies, popular music is considered not only as a significant part of cultural history of certain regions and countries, but also as urban and national cultural heritage (primarily in the UK and US). In Russia, a diverse popular musical past has only recently begun to be represented as cultural heritage, for the most part, through initiatives of musicians, music fans and citizens. The paper examines how the memory of the Leningrad Rock Club is presented in contemporary St. Petersburg as a significant part of the urban history of the 1980s (with examples of memorial sites, monuments to musicians, fan travel maps and tours). The research methods are in-depth interviews and observations that were made during a field-work (August 2020, July, August and October 2021, visiting various locations in 2013–2018). Basing on the concept of heritage as a process we analyze how popular musical heritage is constructed and how the memory and heritage of Leningrad Rock Club is represented in St. Petersburg. This example turns out to be part of the broader and, one might say, global processes of revising the concept of cultural heritage, which unfolded in the second half of the 20th century and as a result of which popular culture in all its diversity becomes a part of this process |
| Keywords: | cultural heritage, heritage studies, critical heritage studies, popular music heritage, Leningrad Rock Club, rock music |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:205/hum/2021&r= |
| By: | Maximilian Benner |
| Abstract: | Agency has become one of the critical themes in path development and several typologies of agency have been proposed. The notion of system-level agency has attracted particular attention. However, existing typologies of agency suffer from conceptual limitations and the many shades of system-level agency in the system of path development remain largely unclear. This article discusses the limitations of existing typologies of agency in path development, clarifies the notion of the system and its functions, and proposes a multidimensional framework that brings together the multiple shades of how agents shape paths along various angles, system functions, and a multiscalar perspective. |
| Keywords: | evolutionary economic geography, agency, institutions, path development, regional development |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwpeg:geo-disc-2021_10&r= |
| By: | Maximilian Benner |
| Abstract: | In the path development literature, the path-as-process perspective conceptualizes the emergence, evolution, transformation, and decline of regional industries in the long term. However, critical questions about the role of agency in and between episodes of path development and transformation remain open. This article argues that we should see path development as a long-term sequence that includes stretches of path development interrupted by occasional switches of transformation that are driven by changing patterns of agency. This railroad track model focuses attention on how and why the mix of agency changes at critical junctures between path development episodes. |
| Keywords: | evolutionary economic geography, path development, path transformation, agency, tourism, Israel |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwpeg:geo-disc-2021_09&r= |
| By: | Li, Xiang |
| Abstract: | By focusing on the episodes of substantial capital account liberalisation and adopting a new methodology, this paper provides new evidence on the dilemma and global financial cycle theory. I first identify the capital account liberalisation episodes for 95 countries from 1970 to 2016, and then employ an augmented inverse propensity score weighted (AIPW) estimator to calculate the average treatment effect (ATE) of opening capital account on the interest rate comovements with the core country. Results show that opening capital account causes a country to lose its monetary policy independence, and a floating exchange rate regime cannot shield this effect. Moreover, the impact is stronger when liberalising outward and banking flows. |
| Keywords: | average treatment effect,capital control,global financial cycle,monetary policy autonomy,propensity score matching,trilemma |
| JEL: | E52 F32 F33 F42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:132021&r= |
| By: | Deep Mukhopadhyay |
| Abstract: | An iconoclastic philosopher and polymath, Charles Sanders Peirce (1837-1914) is among the greatest of American minds. In 1872, Peirce conducted a series of experiments to determine the distribution of response times to an auditory stimulus, which is widely regarded as one of the most significant statistical investigations in the history of nineteenth-century American mathematical research (Stigler, 1978). On the 150th anniversary of this historic experiment, we look back at Peirce's view on empirical modeling through a modern statistical lens. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.08054&r= |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Philipp Ager; Leah Boustan; Elior Cohen; Casper Hansen |
| Abstract: | In the 1920s, the United States substantially reduced immigration by imposing country-specific entry quotas. We compare local labor markets differentially exposed to the quotas due to variation in the national origin mix of their immigrant populations. U.S.-born workers in areas losing immigrants did not gain in income score relative to workers in less exposed areas. Instead, in urban areas, European immigrants were replaced with internal migrants and immigrants from Mexico and Canada. By contrast, farmers shifted toward capital-intensive agriculture, and the immigrant-intensive mining industry contracted. These differences highlight the uneven effects of the quota system at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Immigrants; Labor |
| JEL: | J61 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2021–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:93104&r= |
| By: | Olga Yu. Malinova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The article presents some results of a study of framing the collective memory about “the 1990s” in Russian political discourse. It is devoted to the most dramatic event of the post-Soviet transition in Russia – the political crisis of 1993 that led to adoption of the Constitution that formally functions till now. The author analyzes constructing the conflicting interpretations of the crisis by studying mass media publications in the post-Yeltsin period. To reveal the evolution of competing public narratives, the article focuses on three round figures anniversaries of the events, in 2003, 2013 and 2018, that reflect different stages of Russia’s political development. It demonstrates the significant change in the official discourse after Vladimir Putin’s coming to the presidential office. The narratives about the victory of reformers over counter-reformers and pre-emptive violence aimed to stop a civil war, that were used by Yeltsin, dropped off to be substituted by the story about the Constitution as a historical choice of the Russian people. Putin tended to remember about the 1993 crisis to emphasize “the stability” that was considered the main achievement of his rule. The narratives articulated by the Communists and other successors of the memory of the White House defenders did not change much over time. The author explains it by noting that, in these discourses, the events of 1993 took the shape of the “myth of origin” of Putin’s political regime. On the contrary, the discourse of the Liberals evolved, as, by the 2010s, the apologetic interpretations typical for 2003 gave a way for the critical ones. The tendency for bridging between the narratives about the consequences (though not the reasons) of the crises articulated by the Communists and the Liberals became visible in the recent period. However, it does not prevent the symbolic conflict between them that plays a decisive role in constructing their political identities. |
| Keywords: | Political uses of the part, collective memory, political narratives, the political crisis of 1993 in Russia, Constitution of Russian Federation, official political discourse, the Communists, the Liberals. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:84/ps/2021&r= |
| By: | Henselmann, Klaus; Meier, Elena |
| Abstract: | Die Kodifizierung der deutschen Rechnungslegung reicht bis in das 18. Jahrhundert zurück. 1945 war es bereits zweigliedrig und unterschied zwischen Vorschriften für Aktiengesellschaften und Vorschriften für andere gewerbliche Unternehmen. Bis 1959 änderte sich wenig an der Rechnungslegung. Umfassende Änderungen kamen erst mit dem neuen Aktiengesetz 1965. Vier Jahre vor der deutschen Wiedervereinigung, mit dem am 19. Dezember 1985 veröffentlichten Bilanzrichtliniengesetz (BiRiLiG), erfolgte 1986 in Westdeutschland („Bundesrepublik Deutschland“) die Umsetzung der Vierten Richtlinie 78/660/EWG des Europäischen Rates über den Einzelabschluss und der Siebenten Richtlinie 83/349/EWG des Europäischen Rates über den konsolidierten Abschluss. Der Beitrag analysiert zunächst die erstmalige Anwendung der Mitgliedstaaten-Wahlrechte für den Einzelabschluss. Hinsichtlich des Ansatzes und der Bewertung konnte der deutsche Gesetzgebers zwischen mehr progressiven oder mehr konservativ Alternativen wählen (CP-Score). Hinsichtlich der Darstellung und Offenlegung gab es die Wahl zwischen informativer oder restriktiver Umsetzung (RI-Wertung). Nach 1986 fanden zahlreiche Änderungen der europäischen Richtlinie(n) statt. Sie lösten mehrere Umsetzungsgesetze für das Handelsgesetzbuch aus. Dies führte im Laufe der Jahre auch zu Anpassungen der Rechnungslegungsvorschriften für Einzelabschlüsse von Kapitalgesellschaften in Westdeutschland. In einem separaten Teil wird die Rechnungslegung in Ostdeutschland („Deutsche Demokratische Republik“) bis zur Wiedervereinigung 1990 erläutert. Die Ergebnisse für die einzelnen Jahre, zusammengefasst in CP- und RI-Scores, lassen sich in einem Diagramm grafisch darstellen. Am auffälligsten ist der Systemwechsel zu einer progressiveren Rechnungslegung im Jahr 2009. Generell werden mittleren und kleinen Unternehmen umfangreiche Erleichterungen gewährt, so dass die Rechnungslegung zugleich als überwiegend restriktiv einzustufen ist. |
| Keywords: | Geschichte,Rechnungslegung,Deutschland,DDR,Deutsche Demokratische Republik,Europa,Richtlinie,Gesellschaftsrecht,Harmonisierung,Bilanzrecht |
| JEL: | M41 N44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:248386&r= |
| By: | Francisco Amaral (Macro Finance Lab, University of Bonn); Martin Dohmen (Macro Finance Lab,University of Bonn); Sebastian Kohl (MPIfG Cologne); Moritz Schularick (Macro Finance Lab, University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | We study long-term returns on residential real estate in 27 “superstar” cities in 15 countries over 150 years. We find that total returns in superstar cities are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in the rest of the country. House prices tend to grow faster in the superstars, but rent returns are substantially greater outside the big agglomerations, resulting in higher long-run total returns. The excess returns outside the superstars can be rationalized as a compensation for risk, especially for higher co-variance with income growth and lower liquidity. Superstar real estate is comparatively safe. |
| Keywords: | housing returns, housing risk, superstar cities, regional housing markets |
| JEL: | G10 G12 N90 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:131&r= |
| By: | Nathaniel Lane |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of industrial policy on industrial development by considering a canonical intervention. Following a political crisis, South Korea dramatically altered its development strategy with a sector-specific industrial policy: the Heavy Chemical and Industry (HCI) drive, 1973-1979. With newly assembled data, I use the sharp introduction and withdrawal of industrial policies to study the impacts of industrial policy—during and after the intervention period. I show (1) HCI promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I show HCI indirectly benefited downstream users of targeted intermediates. (3) I find direct and indirect benefits of HCI persisted even after the end of HCI, following the 1979 assassination of the president. These effects include the eventual development of directly targeted exporters and their downstream counterparts. Together, my findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and created durable industrial change. These findings clarify lessons drawn from South Korea and the East Asian growth miracle |
| Keywords: | industrial policy; East Asian miracle; economic History; industrial development; Heavy Chemical and Industry drive |
| JEL: | L5 O14 O25 N6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2021-09&r= |
| By: | Denis Cogneau (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yannick Dupraz (UCD - University College Dublin [Dublin]); Justine Knebelmann (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the fiscal trajectories of 18 former French colonies in Africa from colonial times to the present. Building upon own previous work about colonial public finance (Cogneau et al., 2021), we compile a novel dataset by combining previously available data with recently digitized data from historical archives, to produce continuous and comparable public revenue data series from 1900 to 2018. This allows us to study the evolution of the level and composition of fiscal revenues in the post-colonial decades, with a special focus on the critical juncture of independence. We find that very few countries achieved significant progress in fiscal capacity between the end of the colonial period and today, if we set aside income drawn from mineral resources. This is not explained by a lasting collapse of fiscal capacity at the time of independence. From 1960 to today, the reliance on mineral resource revenues increased on average and dependence on international commodity prices persisted, with few exceptions. The relative contribution of trade taxes declined after the structural adjustments, and lost trade revenues were not compensated by a sufficient increase in domestic taxes. However, for the most recent period, we do note an improvement in the capacity to collect taxes on the domestic economy. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03420664&r= |
| By: | Pedro Molina Ogeda; Emanuel Ornelas; Rodrigo R. Soares |
| Abstract: | We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened even though the shock, implemented by a right-wing party, induced a contraction in manufacturing and formal employment in the more affected regions, and despite the left’s identification with protectionist policies. To rationalize this response, we consider a new institutional channel for the political effects of trade shocks: the weakening of labor unions. We provide support for this mechanism in two steps. First, we show that union presence—proxied by the number of workers directly employed by unions, by union density, and by the number of union establishments—declined in regions that became more exposed to foreign competition. Second, we show that the negative effect of tariff reductions on the votes for the left was driven exclusively by political parties with historical links to unions. Furthermore, the impact of the trade liberalization on the vote share of these parties was significant only in regions that had unions operating before the reform. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that tariff cuts reduced the vote share of the left partly through the weakening of labor unions. This institutional channel is fundamentally different from the individual-level responses, motivated by economic or identity concerns, that have been considered in the literature. |
| Keywords: | trade shocks, elections, unions, Brazil |
| JEL: | F13 D72 J51 F16 F14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9418&r= |
| By: | Martín Lagos |
| Abstract: | Este breve trabajo ha mostrado la coetaniedad entre el retraso del PIB per cápita argentino y el derrumbe del comercio exterior del país, originado – este último – en la política de sustitución de importaciones iniciada en la década de 1930, política profundizada por el peronismo (1946/55) y solo morigerada después de 1955. También se ha mostrado el efecto deletéreo que tuvieron las mega e hiperinflaciones de 1975/90, fenómenos con raíces en la monetización de déficits fiscales |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:817&r= |
| By: | Viktor Malein (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Between 1890 and 1913, Russian Empire experienced a rapid transition to an industrial economy, catching up with Western countries. Using accidental elements in German settlement locations in Russia 1763-1861, the paper estimates the effects of the more educated Germans in Russia’s industrial transition in 1890-1913. I demonstrate that German settlers had significant external benefits in their regions through improved schooling infrastructure and increased literacy among the local population. Educational benefits translated into a higher share of industrial occupations, per-capita local expenditures and urbanization by 1897. I also find a positive impact of education on productivity, mainly in industries that experienced technological transformation and had higher human capital requirements. Furthermore, panel estimates reveal that German areas experienced a higher industrial growth only after 1890 with the adaption of more progressive technologies. Finally, I find no evidence supporting alternative explanations of the German impact: increased agricultural productivity, lower exposure to serfdom, demographic transition or changes in landownership structure. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, Russian economic history, Industrialization |
| JEL: | N14 I25 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0221&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mohammad Ali Kadivar |
| Abstract: | Existing research has pointed to the decreasing effect of revolutions and wars on income inequality. It is unclear whether this reduction is the result of ongoing changes within countries before revolutions and wars or if the results are standalone effects. In this study, we focus on the case of the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the subsequent Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988. We use the synthetic control method to study the effect of revolution and war on changes in income inequality levels. Had there been no revolution and war in Iran, how would income inequality have developed? Utilizing the synthetic control method, we created a counterfactual Iran that reproduces the socioeconomic characteristics of Iran before the Islamic revolution. Then we compare the income inequality of the counterfactual Iran, without the revolution and war, to the factual Iran with a new political regime, for the period of 1970-1988. Our results, based on two different indicators of Iran’s Gini, show a statistically significant effect of the revolution and war on reducing income inequality. Over the entire 1979–1988 period, on average and per year, the Gini index of Iran was reduced by approximately 3 times of the standard deviation of this index. The main findings are robust to a series of placebo tests. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, war, revolution, Iran, synthetic control, counterfactual |
| JEL: | D63 D74 H56 Q34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9428&r= |
| By: | María Aguilera-Díaz; Yuri Reina-Aranza |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo analiza la evolución de indicadores económicos y sociales del departamento de Sucre, con el fin de resaltar los cambios, avances y retos más importantes después de un poco más de 50 años de existencia. La estructura económica del departamento evidencia cambios sustanciales. Si bien el sector primario ha sido el más significativo en la economía, su contribución se ha reducido en el tiempo, dándole paso a la actividad económica enfocada en los servicios. Sin embargo, la terciarización de la economía no guarda una relación con el desarrollo económico del departamento, por lo que no se considera una terciarización genuina. Los indicadores sociales muestran algunos avances como la reducción en la mortalidad, el aumento en los años de educación aprobados y mejoras en aspectos críticos como vivienda y servicios públicos. Sin embargo, la baja calidad de la educación, la alta informalidad laboral y las cifras de pobreza por encima del total nacional continúan siendo los desafíos más importantes por resolver. **** ABSTRACT: This work analyzes the evolution of economic and social indicators of the department of Sucre, to highlight the most important changes, advances, and challenges after 50 years of existence. The economic structure of the department shows substantial changes. Although the primary sector has been one of the most significant in the economy, its contribution has been reduced over time, giving rise to the tertiary sector. However, the increase in the tertiary sector is not related to the economic development of the department, so it is not considered a genuine tertiarization. The social indicators show some progress such as the reduction in mortality, the increase in the educational level and improvements in critical aspects such as housing and public services. However, the low quality of education, high informality, and poverty continue to be the most important challenges to be solved. |
| Keywords: | Sucre, Caribe colombiano, sectores económicos, Sucre, Colombian Caribbean, sectors of the economy |
| JEL: | N96 Q10 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000101:019924&r= |
| By: | Promberger, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This paper analyses the structures and patterns, dimensions and interest relations behind 200 years of working time negotiations and conflicts, based on historical and contemporary literature and research, mainly but not exclusively in Germany. One main thesis is that ‘new’ flexibilization trends are not new at all, while the effective standardization of working hours is limited to a couple of decades in the 20th century. Nevertheless and for various reasons, working time arrangements are a social and political issue which should not be left to individual contracting but subject to reflexive labour policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | J22 J50 N30 N33 N35 O52 O35 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202117&r= |
| By: | Hervé Bercegol (SPEC - UMR3680 - Service de physique de l'état condensé - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Henri Benisty (IOGS - Institut d'Optique Graduate School) |
| Abstract: | Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and gross domestic product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model whereby physical power is fueling economic power. From 1820 to 1920, the linearity between global PEC and world GDP justifies basic equations where, importantly, PEC incorporates unskilled human labor that consumes and converts energy from food. In a consistent model, both physical capital and human capital are fed by PEC and represent a form of stored energy. In the following century, from 1920 to 2016, GDP grows quicker than PEC. Periods of quasi-linearity of the two variables are separated by distinct jumps, which can be interpreted as radical technology shifts. The GDP to PEC ratio accumulates game-changing innovation, at an average growth rate proportional to PEC. These results seed alternative strategies for modeling and for political management of the climate crisis and the energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Energy-GDP nexus,global economy,innovation,historical series,technological revolutions,Energy transition |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:cea-03451983&r= |