nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒12‒06
thirty papers chosen by

  1. What Happened to the Incomes of the Rich during the Great Levelling? Evidence from Swedish Individual-level Data, 1909–1950 By Bengtsson, Erik; Molinder, Jakob
  2. Transition and Change in World Agriculture during the Interwar Years By Vicente Pinilla; Henry Willebald
  3. The long-run impact of historical shocks on the decision to migrate: Evidence from the Irish Migration By Gaia Narciso; Battista Severgnini; Gayane Vardanyan
  4. Coal and Sugar: The Black and White Gold of Czech Industrialization (1841-1863) By Nielsen, Hana
  5. Ireland in a Danish mirror: A microlevel comparison of the productivity of Danish and Irish creameries before the First World War By Eoin McLaughlin; Paul Sharp; Xanthi Tsoukli; Christian Vedel
  6. Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler's path to power By Sebastian Doerr; Stefan Gissler; Jose-Luis Peydro; Hans-Joachim Voth
  7. Riding the bubble or taken for a ride? Investors in the British bicycle mania By Quinn, William; Turner, John D.
  8. On Some Problems of Using the Human Development Index in Economic History By Nicola Amendola; Giacomo Gabbuti; Giovanni Vecchi
  9. The Long-Term Health Impact of Agent Orange: Evidence from the Vietnam War By Le, Duong Trung; Pham, Thanh Minh; Polachek, Solomon
  10. The Long-Term Effects of Forced Migration: An Early-Life Approach with Evidence from Yugoslavian Refugees in Sweden By Serratos-Sotelo, Luis
  11. Civil War, Famine and the Persistence of Human Capital: Evidence from Tajikistan By Grogan, Louise
  12. Herding, Warfare, and a Culture of Honor: Global Evidence By Cao, Yiming; Enke, Benjamin; Falk, Armin; Giuliano, Paola; Nunn, Nathan
  13. Rooted to the soil: The impact of social housing on population in Ireland since 1911 By De Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.
  14. Lessons from the History of the U.S. Regulatory Perimeter By Jess Cheng; Joseph Cox; Courtney Demartini; Katherine Di Lucido; Meg Donovan; Nick Ehlert; Byoung Hwa Hwang; Asad Kudiya; Dan McGonegle; Stacey L. Schreft; Gavin Smith; Nicholas K. Tabor; Alexandros Vardoulakis; Mary L. Watkins; Kathy Wilson; Jeffery Y. Zhang
  15. Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Pollution on Crime: Evidence from 1970 Clean Air Act By Sadana, Divya
  16. The Rise and Fall of Social Democracy, 1918-2017 By Nicola Mastrorocco; Simon Hix; Giacomo Benedetto
  17. Les relations entre l'ANASE et l'Afrique: vers un partenariat renouvelé ? By Kohnert, Dirk
  18. The geography of maritime networks: A critical review By César Ducruet
  19. Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics By Davide Furceri; Pietro Pizzuto; Mr. Prakash Loungani; Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  20. ASEAN and African relations: towards a renewed partnership ? By Kohnert, Dirk
  21. Social welfare and inequalities in Morocco: A theoretical and empirical analysis By Najib Bahmani; Mustapha Jaad
  22. The coronavirus and the Great Influenza epidemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the coronavirus' potential effects on mortality and economic activity By Robert J. Barro; Jose F. Ursua; Joanna Weng
  23. Revisiting the Properties of Money By Isaiah Hull; Or Sattath
  24. Centenaire de la promulgation du Traité de Versailles (1920-2020). Regards croisés entre historiens et économistes sur les conséquences de la paix By Antoine Parent; Vincent Touze
  25. Opening the fifth seal: Catholic martyrs and forces of religious competition By Rachel M. McCleary; Robert J. Barro
  26. Science after Communism: Peers and Productivity in East German Science By Ho Fai Chan; Vincent Lariviére; Naomi Moy; Ali Sina Önder; Donata Schilling; Benno Torgler
  27. Testing for rational bubbles in Australian housing market from a long-term perspective By Vicente Esteve; María A. Prats
  28. Sovereign debt in the 21st century: Looking backward, looking forward By Mitchener, Kris; Trebesch, Christoph
  29. Federico Pinedo: accionar y enseñanzas By Juan Carlos de Pablo
  30. Human Capital and Inequality: A Cointegration Analysis for Colombia for the last 29 years By Ramirez Chaparro, Maria Nathalia; Chacón Mejía, Catalina

  1. By: Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Molinder, Jakob (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University)
    Abstract: Much of the income equalization that took place during the first half of the twentieth century was driven by shifts in the shares of the incomes of the rich, such as the top 1 percent. But the available studies using tabulated data have not been wholly able to account for the relative decline in top earners’ incomes. In this paper, we present the first evidence on the composition of the top groups from the Belle Epoque to the early post-WW2 period. Using information on 21,055 individual tax-payers in two elite areas in greater Stockholm, we show that the absolute top stratum (the richest 0.1 percent) was dominated by an economic elite of CEOs and bankers, while a remarkably large fraction of the top 1 percent consisted of professionals such as medical doctors and engineers. There was a distinction within the elite between capital-rich “rentiers” and those affluent whose income came from wages and business. The incomes of the top stratum were built on the ownership or leadership of companies producing mass consumption goods, machinery, or banking and insurance. We relate the peak of income inequality in the first quarter of the twentieth century to the historical circumstances of a globalized economy with growing mass markets in all the industrializing countries. These circumstances, jointly with an economic policy that was still relatively laissez faire allowed great fortunes to be accumulated. In the 1920s and 1930s policy turned away from globalization and to stronger regulation, at the same time as steeper competition and growing unionization undermined the super profits of the previous quarter- century. Increased state interventionism in the economy and an expansive education policy also undermined the high relative incomes of professionals; we document the declining advantages of professions such as medical doctors, pharmacists, and lawyers when compared with the average income throughout the period.
    Keywords: incomes; inequality; income distribution; Sweden; élites; tax data; Stockholm
    JEL: D31 N14 N34
    Date: 2021–10–26
  2. By: Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Spain); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay)
    Abstract: The years between 1914 and 1950 beheld huge disruptions in the world economy. The interwar period was also extraordinarily turbulent for World agriculture due to World War I, its consequences, the depression of the thirties and the measures taken by the different governments in response to it. It was also a period of transition for agriculture in the developed countries between the years before 1914 and those after World War II, with the onset or deepening of fundamental changes: the shift from extensive to intensive growth; from free markets to state intervention; and, finally, from complementarity to competition in world agricultural trade. Also, the interwar period witnessed a major change in the development model of the world's periphery and one of its distinctive characteristics was the active participation of the State in the economy. In the agricultural sector, this general characteristic was clearly manifested in at least three ways which began to be expressed in the interwar years and definitively consolidated in the second post-war period: anti-agricultural bias policies, urban consumer protection and marketing boards. Moreover, the interwar problems were one of the causes for the progressive abandonment of export-led growth models based on primary commodities.
    Keywords: Agricultural Economic History, Agricultural Development, Agricultural Policies
    JEL: N50 Q10 Q18
    Date: 2021–11
  3. By: Gaia Narciso (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Battista Severgnini (Copenhagen Business School); Gayane Vardanyan (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: What is the long-run impact of large negative historical events on the individual decision to migrate? We investigate this research question by looking at the effect of the Great Irish Famine (1845-1850) on the long-run individual decision to migrate to the US during the Age of the Mass Migration. We construct a unique dataset based on two early 20th century Irish Censuses and the Ellis Island Administrative Records. This allows us to test whether the Great Irish Famine, one of the most lethal episodes of mass starvation in history, had a long-run impact on individuals’ migration decisions. Controlling for individual and geographical characteristics, we find that the Irish Famine was a significant long-run driver of individuals’ migration choices.
    Keywords: mass migration, negative shock, long-run impact, Great Famine.
    JEL: F22 N33 N93
    Date: 2020–01
  4. By: Nielsen, Hana (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This article studies the fast fossil fuel transition in the context of steam adoption in the Czech lands. I show how geographical proximity to coal brought forward the early industrialization of the Czech lands. The region’s fast transition to modern fuels fundamentally transformed the industrial landscape and laid foundations for the development of new industries. Coal, steam and sugar became the central elements, moving the Czech lands closer to the European core. Overall, this article challenges the traditional view of the economic backwardness and shows on what grounds the Czech lands became the economic powerhouse of the Habsburg Empire.
    Keywords: industrialization; distance to coal; steam engines; Poisson regression; spatial regression
    JEL: C21 N73 O14 R12
    Date: 2021–10–13
  5. By: Eoin McLaughlin (University College Cork); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark); Xanthi Tsoukli (University of Bamberg); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: The relative success of the Danish and failure of the Irish dairy industries before the First World War is often contrasted given their competition for the lucrative British butter market. The traditional narrative implicitly assumes that Ireland failed because it was unsuccessful at adopting the cooperative institution, and that Irish cooperatives were not as efficient as their Danish counterparts, despite having been explicitly modelled on them. This assumption is, however, untested at the ‘firm’ level. We seek to rectify this through the analysis of a large microlevel database of creameries in both countries over the period 1898-1903. Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), a standard methodology in modern productivity studies, we find no evidence for significant productivity differences on average, although there was a much larger variance in Ireland. This nuances the idea that the Irish were unable to cooperate successfully, although some creameries were certainly productivity laggards.
    Keywords: Dairying, Denmark, Ireland, microdata, productivity
    JEL: N13 N53
    Date: 2021–11
  6. By: Sebastian Doerr; Stefan Gissler; Jose-Luis Peydro; Hans-Joachim Voth
    Abstract: Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's 1931 banking crisis, collecting new data on bank branches and firm-bank connections. Exploiting cross- sectional variation in pre-crisis exposure to the bank at the center of the crisis, we show that Nazi votes surged in locations more affected by its failure. Radicalization in response to the shock was exacerbated in cities with a history of anti- Semitism. After the Nazis seized power, both pogroms and deportations were more frequent in places affected by the banking crisis. Our results suggest an important synergy between financial distress and cultural predispositions, with far-reaching consequences.
    Keywords: financial crisis, political extremism, populism, anti-Semitism, culture, Great Depression
    JEL: E44 G01 G21 N20 P16
    Date: 2021–11
  7. By: Quinn, William; Turner, John D.
    Abstract: Clientele-based theories explaining asset price bubbles are often difficult to test because the identities of investors cannot easily be tracked over time. This paper tests these theories using a hand-collected sample of 12,000 investors during an asset price reversal in the shares of British bicycle companies between 1895 and 1900. We find that informed investors reduced their holdings substantially during the crash, suggesting that they were riding the bubble. Those who performed worst were not typically the least informed groups, but gentlemen living near a stock exchange, who had the most time, money, and opportunity to engage in speculation.
    Keywords: British financial history,financial bubbles
    JEL: G01 N23
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Nicola Amendola (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Giacomo Gabbuti (St.Antony’s College, University of Oxford); Giovanni Vecchi (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: We argue against the use of composite indices, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), in economic history. We show that the HDI can be interpreted as a formal representation of the analyst’s ethical system. We support our claim by introducing a new class of paternalistic social welfare functions (Graaff 1957, Mas-Colell, 1995) which encompasses all the HDI formulas put forth by the literature. The theoretical framework is illustrated by an empirical investigation of the long-run evolution of Italians’ living standards and civic liberties. We conclude that any history based on composite indices is one where both data and history play a minor role, if any.
    Keywords: Human development index,Economic wellbeing,Composite indices,Living standards,CES,Social welfare functions,Italy
    JEL: N01 N3 O15
    Date: 2021–11–09
  9. By: Le, Duong Trung (World Bank); Pham, Thanh Minh (Binghamton University, New York); Polachek, Solomon (Binghamton University, New York)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-term health impact of Agent Orange, a toxic military herbicide containing dioxin that was used extensively during the U.S.-Vietnam war in the 1960-70s. Using a nationally representative health survey and an instrumental variable approach that addresses the potential endogeneity in the location and the intensity of U.S. defoliant missions, we report several findings. First, relative to the average prevalence rate of the sample population, we find that Vietnamese civilians located in a commune one-standard-deviation more exposed to herbicide during the war were 19.75 percent more likely to suffer from a health disease medically linked to Agent Orange three decades later. Second, disaggregating by disease types, we observe significant effects on blood pressure disease and mobility disability. Third, across cohorts, we find significant detrimental impact on those born before herbicide missions ended, especially among wartime children, infants, and those in-utero during the 1962-1971 period.
    Keywords: Agent Orange, herbicide, health, conflicts, Vietnam war
    JEL: N45 I10 Q53
    Date: 2021–10
  10. By: Serratos-Sotelo, Luis (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of being exposed to forced migration during childhood (ages 0-5) on educational achievement at age 15 (grade 9). Using register data from the Swedish Interdisciplinary Panel, I identify children who migrated to Sweden as a consequence of the rising conflict during the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, and follow them until age 15, when they received their grades at the end of the 9 years of compulsory education in Sweden. The results show that those who experienced forced migration performed worse in school, as measured by Math and Swedish grades and Merit Rating scores, with forced migrants achieving grades that were on average 5 (Merit Rating), 7 (Swedish), and 22 (Math) percentage points of a standard deviation lower than those of native Swedes. Forced migrants outperformed Swedes only in English, obtaining grades that were on average 12 percentage points of a standard deviation higher than did their native-born counterparts.
    Keywords: forced migration; refugees; education; early-life; Sweden
    JEL: I24 J13 J15 N34
    Date: 2021–10–13
  11. By: Grogan, Louise (University of Guelph)
    Abstract: The dissolution of the Soviet Union and 1992-96 Tajik civil war resulted in huge human and economic losses. Nevertheless, contemporary data suggest the persistence of investments in human capital in the region most affected by famine and least favoured since the cessation of hostilities, Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast. Famine-affected women have greater stature and final educational attainment, later ages at marriage and lower fertility than do those in the neighbouring border province, Khatlon. Educational interactions between adults and children under age six are much more frequent. The continued emphasis on human capital after economic collapse is consistent with a locational imperative for households to earn incomes outside of agriculture, and with a higher relative status of women in non-agrarian societies.
    Keywords: food security, anthropometry, schooling, child mortality, early childhood education, civil war, Tajikistan
    JEL: H4 J1
    Date: 2021–10
  12. By: Cao, Yiming (Boston University); Enke, Benjamin (University of Bonn); Falk, Armin (briq, University of Bonn); Giuliano, Paola (University of California, Los Angeles); Nunn, Nathan (Harvard University)
    Abstract: According to the widely known 'culture of honor' hypothesis from social psychology, traditional herding practices are believed to have generated a value system that is conducive to revenge-taking and violence. We test this idea at a global scale using a combination of ethnographic records, historical folklore information, global data on contemporary conflict events, and large-scale surveys. The data show systematic links between traditional herding practices and a culture of honor. First, the culture of pre-industrial societies that relied on animal herding emphasizes violence, punishment, and revenge-taking. Second, contemporary ethnolinguistic groups that historically subsisted more strongly on herding have more frequent and severe conflict today. Third, the contemporary descendants of herders report being more willing to take revenge and punish unfair behavior in the globally representative Global Preferences Survey. In all, the evidence supports the idea that this form of economic subsistence generated a functional psychology that has persisted until today and plays a role in shaping conflict across the globe.
    Keywords: culture of honor, conflict, punishment, revenge
    JEL: N0 Z1
    Date: 2021–09
  13. By: De Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.
    Abstract: How does housing policy influence the distribution of population? We examine the impact of the world's first large-scale rural public housing scheme on the long-term dynamics of rural population, specifically the case of Ireland's Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883-1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing, which effectively halved rents for landless laborers, affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. Our findings suggest that deep housing policy interventions can have longlasting effects on population distribution.
    Keywords: Ireland,Labourers Acts,population growth,social housing,migration
    JEL: N34 N94 O18 R23 R38
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Jess Cheng; Joseph Cox; Courtney Demartini; Katherine Di Lucido; Meg Donovan; Nick Ehlert; Byoung Hwa Hwang; Asad Kudiya; Dan McGonegle; Stacey L. Schreft; Gavin Smith; Nicholas K. Tabor; Alexandros Vardoulakis; Mary L. Watkins; Kathy Wilson; Jeffery Y. Zhang
    Abstract: Banking organizations in the United States have long been subject to two broad categories of regulatory standards. The first is permissive: a "positive" grant of rights and privileges, typically via a charter for a corporate entity, to engage in the business of banking.
    Date: 2021–10–15
  15. By: Sadana, Divya
    Abstract: Past literature has shown that 1970 amendments to the Clean Air Act (CAA) led to significant reduction in air pollution early 1970s, and that it had positive infant health consequences for the cohorts treated by CAA. Because effects of in-utero and early childhood conditions are persistent, and the health effects can remain latent for years, CAA may impact the future adult outcomes. In this paper, I investigate the impact of the CAA on the future crime. In a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the cohorts that were born in the year of the CAA’s first implementation commit fewer crimes 15 to 24 years later. The magnitude of this impact is about 4 percent. Property crimes rather than violent crimes are impacted. I also estimate that CAA reduced the ambient air pollution by 14 percent. These reduced form estimates suggest that a one percent reduction in air pollution reduces future crime rate by 0.3 percent.
    Keywords: Pollution, Crime, Birthweight, Education, Employment Status, Earnings
    JEL: I15 I25 J24 K14 K42 Q53
    Date: 2021–03
  16. By: Nicola Mastrorocco (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Simon Hix (London School of Economics); Giacomo Benedetto (Royal Holloway London)
    Abstract: We describe the electoral history of one of Europe's most successful party families over the past 100 years in 31 countries. With a unique and newly collected dataset of national election results, and a large number of economic and social variables measured for each country-election observation, we find that two main factors drive the electoral performance of social democratic parties: public sector spending, and the size of the manufacturing sector. We investigate these results further with an analysis of individual-level voting behaviour, using the European Social Surveys from 2002 to 2016. Together, our findings suggest that most of the fall in support for social democratic parties in recent years is correlated with a decline in the number of industrial workers as well as a reduction in the propensity of social democratic parties' core supporters (industrial workers and public sector employees) to vote for them.
    Keywords: Social Democracy, Elections, Political economy
    JEL: K42 H72
    Date: 2019–12
  17. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : ASEAN – African relations. Towards a new partnership ? ----- The ASEAN summit of October 2021 showed the increased geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific realm. Today ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in Asia and the second largest worldwide behind the EU. The establishment of the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership (NAASP) more than 15 years before (2005) aimed to revive the Bandung spirit of the non-aligned movement of 1955. This time with a stronger focus on economic ties. In 2013 these countries counted around 620 million inhabitants or 8.8% of the world population. They wanted to fight colonialism and neocolonialism by promoting Afro-Asiatic economic and cultural cooperation. Almost all member countries gained sovereignty and political independence by the 1960s and 1970s, except for Palestine. However, the aftermath of the Bandung conference also promoted negative developments, including the polarization of Asian countries, the strengthening of political authoritarianism, and regional interventions. In addition, most countries continued to grapple with economic and political challenges, including poverty, debt burdens, backwardness, ignorance, disease, and environmental degradation. Their access to the markets of the industrialized countries also remained limited. At the global level, the NAASP received little attention so far. Despite the longstanding rhetoric of Asia-Africa solidarity, Asia and Africa still lack formal institutional and trade links. Although interregional trade increased, Africa remained a small part of ASEAN with only around 2% of its total market. The most important trading countries of ASEAN with Africa were Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore, while South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt were the largest African import markets. RÉSUMÉ : : Le sommet de l'ASEAN d'octobre 2021 a montré l'importance géopolitique accrue de la region indo-pacifique. Aujourd'hui, l'ANASE est l'organisation régionale la plus performante d'Asie et la deuxième au monde derrière l'UE. La création du Nouveau partenariat stratégique Asie-Afrique (NAASP) plus de 15 ans auparavant (2005) visait à raviver l'esprit de Bandung du mouvement des non-alignés de 1955. Cette fois en mettant davantage l'accent sur les liens économiques. En 2013, ces pays comptaient environ 620 millions d'habitants soit 8,8% de la population mondiale. Ils voulaient combattre le colonialisme et le néocolonialisme en promouvant la coopération économique et culturelle afro-asiatique. Presque tous les pays membres ont acquis leur souveraineté et leur indépendance politique dans les années 1960 et 1970, à l'exception de la Palestine. Cependant, les conséquences de la conférence de Bandung ont également favorisé des développements négatifs, notamment la polarisation des pays asiatiques, le renforcement de l'autoritarisme politique et les interventions régionales. En outre, la plupart des pays ont continué à faire face à des défis économiques et politiques, notamment la pauvreté, le fardeau de la dette, le retard, l'ignorance, la maladie et la dégradation de l'environnement. Leur accès aux marchés des pays industrialisés restait également limité. Au niveau mondial, le NAASP a reçu peu d'attention jusqu'à présent. Malgré la rhétorique de longue date de la solidarité Asie-Afrique, l'Asie et l'Afrique manquent encore de liens institutionnels et commerciaux formels. Bien que le commerce interrégional ait augmenté, l'Afrique est restée une petite partie de l'ASEAN avec seulement environ 2% de son marché total. Les principaux pays commerçants de l'ASEAN avec l'Afrique étaient la Thaïlande, l'Indonésie et Singapour, tandis que l'Afrique du Sud, le Nigéria et l'Égypte étaient les plus grands marchés d'importation africains.
    Keywords: ANASE, ASEAN, NAASP, Asie du Sud-Est, Afrique, croissance économique, commerce international, zone de libre échange, union douanière, mouvement des non-alignés, Indonésie, Afrique du Sud, Thaïlande, Singapour, Nigeria, Égypte
    JEL: F13 F15 F36 F54 N15 N17 O17 O19 O53 O55 Z13
    Date: 2021–11–16
  18. By: César Ducruet (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris)
    Abstract: Despite early cartographical and graph-theoretical analyses of maritime flows in the 1940s and 1960s, it is only from the 2000s onwards that maritime network analysis had grown apace, backed by newly available shipping data, increased computational power, and renewed conceptual frameworks to study networks in general. The evolution of maritime network analysis, in geography and other sciences, is marked by a wide diversity of methods and themes, which we classify into three main parts. We first present studies looking at maritime flows in an abstract space, focusing on operational, statistical, or managerial aspects where navigation, graph structure, and firms' strategies are the key concerns. Second, we review researches where maritime flows and networks are markers and vectors of wider geo-economic structures and dynamics, such as regional inequalities and areas of dominance. Lastly, maritime networks have also been considered as integral parts of territories and wider chained systems, such as urban networks, regional networks, and coupled networks. We conclude that network analysis and maritime transport still share many uncovered areas and discuss potential research pathways for future works.
    Keywords: Transport networks,Network science,Ports,ACL,Complex networks,Flows,Graph theory,Maritime transport,PARIS team
    Date: 2020–10
  19. By: Davide Furceri; Pietro Pizzuto; Mr. Prakash Loungani; Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.
    Keywords: impact of pandemic; pandemic dummy regression; income share; pandemic event; severity of the pandemic; COVID-19; Income inequality; Income distribution; Income; Global
    Date: 2021–05–01
  20. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: The ASEAN summit of October 2021 showed the increased geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific realm. Today ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in Asia and the second largest worldwide behind the EU. The establishment of the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership (NAASP) more than 15 years before (2005) aimed to revive the Bandung spirit of the non-aligned movement of 1955. This time with a stronger focus on economic ties. In 2013 these countries counted around 620 million inhabitants or 8.8% of the world population. They wanted to fight colonialism and neocolonialism by promoting Afro-Asiatic economic and cultural cooperation. Almost all member countries gained sovereignty and political independence by the 1960s and 1970s, except for Palestine. However, the aftermath of the Bandung conference also promoted negative developments, including the polarization of Asian countries, the strengthening of political authoritarianism, and regional interventions. In addition, most countries continued to grapple with economic and political challenges, including poverty, debt burdens, backwardness, ignorance, disease, and environmental degradation. Their access to the markets of the industrialized countries also remained limited. At the global level, the NAASP received little attention so far. Despite the longstanding rhetoric of Asia-Africa solidarity, Asia and Africa still lack formal institutional and trade links. Although interregional trade increased, Africa remained a small part of ASEAN with only around 2% of its total market. The most important trading countries of ASEAN with Africa were Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore, while South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt were the largest African import markets.
    Keywords: ASEAN, NAASP, Asia, Africa, economic growth, international trade, free trade area, customs union, Non-Aligned Movement, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Singapore, Nigeria, Egypt
    JEL: F13 F15 F36 F54 N15 N17 O17 O19 O53 O55 Z13
    Date: 2021–11–16
  21. By: Najib Bahmani (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Économiques et Sociales d'Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir]); Mustapha Jaad (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Économiques et Sociales d'Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir])
    Abstract: Since the beginning of the twentieth century, when the concept of "Well-being" has found its new place in economics, the welfare economics, has since consisted of evaluating economic situations, and mainly, the terms of distribution. The debate that was before is only about the measurement of value and utility. Happiness, or well-being, was synonymous with anything that provides satisfaction without necessarily being "useful", yet the relativity of measuring utility was simplified by cumulative aggregation. Indeed, collective well-being represents the sum of the levels of well-being (or utility) of the individuals who make up the community considered. The useful is therefore anything that contributes to maximizing social well-being. Utilitarianism, through functions of marginal utility, has made it possible to identify the optimum of collective and social well-being. On the other hand, and according to the principle of maximization of the sum of well-being, the hypothesis of an equitable distribution of shares, in particular of income between the members of a society, requires that the marginal gain in well-being, in the allocation of resources to different individuals, ie the same everywhere. The fundamental and recapitulated matrix of utilitarianism was uttered by Jeremy Bentham: "The greatest happiness of the greatest number is the measure of just and unjust." The utilitarian doctrine was therefore crucial in the development of several theories in economic and social sciences. We cite in particular the theory of justice. The latter stipulates according to its founder John Rawls, that Men are too egocentric and selfish to determine the principles of fair and equitable distribution of wealth: they seek only to derive their own benefit. Through a theoretical base which presents the economy of well-being, and the theory of justice, our article will deal with the problem of economic inequalities and its perspectives on the attainment of social well-being, in its most extreme ideal's conditions. However, the quest to maximize individual and social well-being was also the subject of several critiques of the utilitarian approach. The cross-sectional analyzes, which we will undertake, will thus allow us to focus our gaze on other modern theories, namely general equilibrium theory, social choice theory, capability theory, and also that of social justice.
    Abstract: Depuis le début du XXème siècle, que le concept du « Bien-être » a connu sa nouvelle place en sciences économiques, l'économie du bien-être (welfare economics), consistait depuis lors, à évaluer les situations économiques, et principalement, les modalités de la répartition. Le débat qui était avant ne porte que sur la mesure de la valeur et de l'utilité. Le bonheur, ou le bien-être était synonyme de tout ce qui procure une satisfaction sans être nécessairement « utile », cependant la relativité de mesure de l'utilité, était simplifiée par une agrégation cumulative. En effet le bien-être collectif représente la somme des niveaux de bien-être (ou d'utilité) des individus qui composent la collectivité considérée. L'utile est donc tout ce qui contribue à maximiser le bien-être social. L'utilitarisme, à travers des fonctions d'utilité marginale, a permis d'identifier l'optimum du bien-être collectif et social. En revanche, et selon le principe de maximisation de la somme du bien-être, l'hypothèse d'une distribution de parts équitables notamment des revenus entre les membres d'une société, exige que le gain marginal en bien-être, dans l'affectation des ressources aux différents individus, soit partout le même. La matrice fondamentale et récapitulative de l'utilitarisme était prononcée par Jeremy Bentham : « Le plus grand bonheur du plus grand nombre est la mesure du juste et de l'injuste ». La doctrine utilitariste était donc cruciale dans le développement de plusieurs théories en sciences économiques et sociales. On cite notamment la théorie de la justice. Cette dernière stipule selon son fondateur John Rawls, que les Hommes sont trop égocentriques et égoïstes pour déterminer des principes de répartition des richesses justes et équitables : ils cherchent uniquement à tirer leur propre bénéfice. À travers, un soubassement théorique qui présente l'économie du bien-être, et la théorie de la justice, notre article traitera, la problématique des inégalités économiques et ses perspectives sur l'atteinte du bien-être social, sous ses états les plus idéaux. Or, la recherche à maximiser le bien-être individuel et social, faisait aussi l'objet de plusieurs critiques de l'approche utilitariste. Les analyses transversales, que nous entamerons-nous permettront ainsi de focaliser le regard sur les autres théories modernes à savoir la théorie de l'équilibre général, la théorie du choix social, la théorie des capabilités, et aussi celle de la justice sociale.
    Keywords: social welfare,well-being,social justice,Inequalities,Justice sociale,Inégalités,P36,P46,H75,D63,social welfare. JEL Classification: I31,sociales et juridiques Inequalities,Bien-être social,Faculté des sciences économiques,bien-être
    Date: 2021–10–01
  22. By: Robert J. Barro (Harvard University, American Enterprise Institute); Jose F. Ursua (Dodge and Cox); Joanna Weng (EverLife)
    Abstract: Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918–1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19).
    Keywords: consumption, Coronavirus, Economic growth, Gross Domestic Product GDP
    JEL: A
    Date: 2020–03
  23. By: Isaiah Hull; Or Sattath
    Abstract: The properties of money commonly referenced in the economics literature were originally identified by Jevons (1876) and Menger (1892) in the late 1800s and were intended to describe physical currencies, such as commodity money, metallic coins, and paper bills. In the digital era, many non-physical currencies have either entered circulation or are under development, including demand deposits, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), in-game currencies, and quantum money. These forms of money have novel properties that have not been studied extensively within the economics literature, but may be important determinants of the monetary equilibrium that emerges in the forthcoming era of heightened currency competition. This paper makes the first exhaustive attempt to identify and define the properties of all physical and digital forms of money. It reviews both the economics and computer science literatures and categorizes properties within an expanded version of the original functions-and-properties framework of money that includes societal and regulatory objectives.
    Date: 2021–11
  24. By: Antoine Parent (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Vincent Touze (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'OFCE a organisé le 10 janvier 2020 un colloque qui réunissait historiens et économistes pour commémorer le centenaire de la promulgation du Traité de paix de Versailles. Le 10 janvier 1920 fut en effet un moment historique où la guerre prit officiellement fin à 16h15 après l'échange des ratifications dans le salon de l'Horloge du quai d'Orsay à Paris. Cette promulgation permettait enfin la reprise de relations normalisées entre les Alliés et l'Allemagne. Le sujet central de la conférence portait sur les conséquences de la paix. L'approche retenue dans cette conférence était didactique et couvrait, par conséquent, de nombreux thèmes. À l'issue de cette conférence fut lancé un appel à contributions dont ce numéro rassemble les articles sélectionnés. [Premier paragraphe]
    Keywords: centenaire,Traité de Versailles,promulgation,conséquences de la paix
    Date: 2021–02
  25. By: Rachel M. McCleary (Harvard University, American Enterprise Institute); Robert J. Barro (Harvard University, American Enterprise Institute)
    Abstract: Jorge Mario Bergoglio, since becoming Pope Francis in March 2013, is focusing on martyrdom in the Roman Catholic Church.
    Keywords: Catholic Church, competition, economics, Religion
    JEL: A
    Date: 2020–03
  26. By: Ho Fai Chan (Queensland University of Technology); Vincent Lariviére (University of Montreal); Naomi Moy (University of Bologna); Ali Sina Önder (University of Portsmouth); Donata Schilling (London School of Economics); Benno Torgler (Queensland University of Technology)
    Abstract: We analyze the role of complementarities in collaboration and academic productivity using a unique dataset on East German scientists’ publications in fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) after the German re-unification in 1990. We focus on East German scientists’ connections to their peers, their scientific productivity and impact as measured by the number of publications, citation accumulation, and the quality of journals where they publish. East German scientists show a significant convergence to their West German peers in all productivity accounts. We use the similarity of research portfolio to West German research in 1980s as identification and find that the effect of losing a collaborator on the productivity and collaborations of East German scientists differs with respect to their complementarities. Moreover, we find East Germans who collaborated with Soviet scientists on non-Western research fields during the 1980s are significantly more likely to re-wire their collaboration net- works towards Western Europe and the US in 1990s and 2000s. They are also more likely to switch their field of research and collaborate with West Germans who moved to an East German university or research institute after the re-unification.
    Keywords: Peer-Effects; Productivity; Institutions; Migration; East Germany
    JEL: J61 O33
    Date: 2021–11–29
  27. By: Vicente Esteve (Universidad de Valencia and Universidad de Alcalá, Spain); María A. Prats (Universidad de Murcia, Spain)
    Abstract: In this article, we use tests of explosive behavior in real house prices with annual data for the case of Australia for the period 1870?2020. The main contribution of this paper is the use of very long time series. It is important to use longer span data because it o¤ers more powerful econo- metric results. In order to detect episodes of potential explosive behavior in house prices over this long period, we use the recursive unit root tests for explosiveness proposed by Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011), and Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a,b). According to the results, there is clear specula- tive bubble behavior in real house prices between 1997-2020, speculative process that has not yet been adjusted.
    Keywords: House price; Explosiveness; Recursive unit root test; Multiple Structural Breaks
    JEL: E31 R21 E62 H62 R39
    Date: 2021–11
  28. By: Mitchener, Kris; Trebesch, Christoph
    Abstract: How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing "lessons learned" in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign "doom-loop" and the propagation of sovereign risk to households and firms; (iii) roll-over problems and self-fulfilling crisis dynamics; (iv) severe debt distress without outright sovereign defaults; (v) large-scale sovereign bailouts from abroad; and (vi) creditor threats to litigate and hold out in a debt restructuring. Many of these characteristics were already present in historical debt crises and are likely to remain relevant in the future. Looking forward, our survey points to a growing role of sovereign-bank linkages, legal risks, domestic debt and default, and of official creditors, due to new lenders such as China as well as the increasing dominance of central banks in global debt markets. Questions of debt sustainability and default will remain acute in both developing and advanced economies.
    JEL: F30 F34 G12 G15 N10 N20
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Juan Carlos de Pablo
    Abstract: Federico Pinedo falleció el 10 de setiembre de 1971, hace exactamente medio siglo. Había nacido en 1895. Pinedo y Prebisch: inteligentes, comprometidos, laboriosos, corajudos y discutidos, es el título de un libro que se publicará durante 2022. De Pinedo, 4 veces diputados de la Nación, y 3 ministro de economía, aprendí 3 cosas: cómo debe ser la relación entre el presidente de un país y sus ministros, y que éstos no se deben ocupar exclusivamente de sus carteras; que en los debates se puede discrepar abiertamente, pero en política hay que ser componedor; y que no es necesario saber economía para captar lo esencial del enfoque monetario de la balanza de pagos.
    Date: 2021–11
  30. By: Ramirez Chaparro, Maria Nathalia; Chacón Mejía, Catalina
    Abstract: Taking into account the inequality that deepens socioeconomic gaps in the Latin American region, especially in a country as unequal as Colombia. The aim of this working paper is to seeks to see the behavior of inequality (from the Gini index approach), and adult literacy, variables that together can be explanatory of the other, contextualizing it in the evolution it has had in the Colombian reality. The analysis was made using the capabilities theory of Sen and its model. In order to examine the long-run relationship between the variables, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the cointegration test are applied to the equations and the error correction test to the equations. This would mean that changes in human capital formation would lead to favorable results in inequality in a few years, i.e., that individuals could have access to a better quality of life by applying the knowledge acquired during their formative years.
    Keywords: Inequality, Human Development, Colombia
    JEL: I3
    Date: 2021

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