nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒11‒08
27 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. The Interplay Between Colonial History and Postcolonial Institutions: Evidence from Cameroon By Marie Christelle Mabeu; Roland Pongou
  2. Early monetary policies of the Tokugawa shogunate and merchants f coping strategies: 1695?1736 By Atsuko Suzuki
  3. Wealth Inequality in Pre-industrial Rural England By Kumon, Yuzuru
  4. The Unmaking of the Black Blue-Collar Middle Class By William Lazonick; Philip Moss; Joshua Weitz
  5. Islam and the State: Religious Education in the Age of Mass Schooling By Samuel Bazzi; Masyhur Hilmy; Benjamin Marx
  6. Suburbanization in the United States 1970-2010 By Stephen J. Redding
  7. Northern Ireland and European integration: A historical analysis of divergent nationalist discourses By Martin, Anne
  8. Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology By Antonin Aviat; Frédérique Bec; Claude Diebolt; Catherine Doz; Denis Ferrand; Laurent Ferrara; Eric Heyer; Valérie Mignon; Pierre-Alain Pionnier
  9. The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities By Guillaume Flamerie de la Chapelle
  10. Media Competition and News Diets By Charles Angelucci; Julia Cage; Michael Sinkinson
  11. Cross-cultural trade and the slave ship the Bonne Société: baskets of goods, diverse sellers, and time pressure on the African coast By Gregg, Amanda; Ruderman, Anne
  12. Missions and Heterogeneous Social Change: Evidence from Border Discontinuities in the Emirates of Nigeria By Dozie; Roland Pongou
  13. La programación cultural en artes plásticas del Banco de la República de Cartagena, 1980-1984 By María Beatriz García-Dereix
  14. Which side are you on? A historical perspective on union membership composition in four European countries By Cyprien Batut; Ulysse Lojkine; Paolo Santini
  15. Keynes's Treatise on Probability at 100 Years: Its Most Enduring Message By Carlo Zappia
  16. Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years By Maria Caridad Araujo; Karen Macours
  17. Why do Sovereign Borrowers Post Collateral? Evidence from the 19th Century By Marc Flandreau; Stefano Pietrosanti; Carlotta E. Schuster
  18. Ouverture et fragmentation : le seigle en Corrèze, 1860-1896 By Stéphane Gauthier
  19. The crisis in Greece: missteps and miscalculations By Benny Andersen
  20. The Impact of Research Independence on PhD Students' Careers: Large-scale Evidence from France By Sofia Patsali; Michele Pezzoni; Fabiana Visentin
  21. Gold is Old: Noble Metal in Indian Economy through Ages By Deodhar, Satish Y.
  22. The name says it all. Multigenerational social mobility in Switzerland, 1550-2019 By Häner, Melanie; Schaltegger, Christoph A.
  23. La visión del fondo monetario internacional sobre la equidad en sus 75 años de vida By Isabel Garrido
  24. Understanding the emergence of unknown domains of expertise in established firms: learnings from Renault's collaboration with industrial management scholars since the 1950's By Maris-Alix Deval; Sophie Hooge; Benoit Weil
  25. Resilience and Path Dependency: Income Distribution Effects of GDP in Colombia By Ahmet Faruk Aysan; Dilek Demirbas; Mustafa Disli; Monica Parra
  26. The Cliometrics of Onomastics: Modeling Who's Who in Ancient Greece By Laurent Gauthier
  27. Information Frictions, Global Capital Markets, and the Telegraph By Wache, Benjamin

  1. By: Marie Christelle Mabeu; Roland Pongou (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)
    Abstract: We study the long-term impacts of Cameroon's colonial history and its interplay with postcolonial institutions. We exploit both the arbitrary division of the German Colony of Kamerun between France and Britain after World War I and the 1961 reunification of British Southern Cameroons and the French-speaking République du Cameroun. Comparing individuals from the same ethnic homeland but living on either side of the British-French border within Cameroon, we find that individuals on the British side had higher educational attainment before the reunification, but that this initial advantage was partially erased by post-reunification governance. Despite achieving higher educational attainment overall, individuals on the British side have worse employment outcomes and roughly similar infant mortality rates. We provide further evidence of the interaction between colonial origins and postcolonial institutions by analyzing how the outcomes of individuals in former Southern Cameroons differ from their hypothetical outcomes, had they instead opted to join Nigeria in the 1961 plebiscite. We find that they have lower educational attainment, higher infant mortality rates, and worse employment outcomes relative to their co-ethnics living on the Nigerian side of the border between former Southern Cameroons and Nigeria.
    Keywords: Colonial history, Postcolonial institutions, Cameroon, British Southern Cameroons, French Cameroons, République du Cameroun, Reunification, Federalism, Centralization.
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Atsuko Suzuki (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: The Tokugawa monetary system was a new experience in Japanese history, and the Genroku debasement, which was necessitated by the exhaustion of gold and silver resources, was a new experiment for both the shogunate and merchants, the representatives of the townspeople. For the same reason, the shogunate had no choice but to implement a monetary policy gnominalistically, h but the merchants responded gmetallistically. h This was because the merchants valued money as bullion. The conflict between the shogunate and merchants played an important role in invigorating the Tokugawa economy. This study describes the historical economic situation.
    Keywords: commodity money, early modern Japan, fixed and floating exchange rates, Edo and Osaka, nominalistic and metallistic
    JEL: D46 E31 K42 N15 Z13
    Date: 2021–11
  3. By: Kumon, Yuzuru
    Abstract: How unequal were the commons preceding their enclosure in the 18th-19th cen-turies? This paper uses data from the parliamentary enclosure acts to estimate in-equality. Inclusive of the landless, I find gini coefficients ranged from 0.65-0.82 while the landless typically composed 40-50% of the population. Despite these regions be-ing the most equal within England at the time, their inequality was similar to typical villages in contemporary Italy and less equal than those in Germany or Japan. This confirms that the commons, most of which were enclosed by the 19th century, were already highly unequal and this paved the way to enclosure.
    Date: 2021–11–02
  4. By: William Lazonick (University of Massachusetts Lowell); Philip Moss (University of Massachusetts Lowell); Joshua Weitz (Brown University)
    Abstract: In the decade after the Civil Rights Act of 1964, African Americans made historic gains in accessing employment opportunities in racially integrated workplaces in U.S. business firms and government agencies. In the previous working papers in this series, we have shown that in the 1960s and 1970s, Blacks without college degrees were gaining access to the American middle class by moving into well-paid unionized jobs in capital-intensive mass production industries. At that time, major U.S. companies paid these blue-collar workers middle-class wages, offered stable employment, and provided employees with health and retirement benefits. Of particular importance to Blacks was the opening up to them of unionized semiskilled operative and skilled craft jobs, for which in a number of industries, and particularly those in the automobile and electronic manufacturing sectors, there was strong demand. In addition, by the end of the 1970s, buoyed by affirmative action and the growth of public-service employment, Blacks were experiencing upward mobility through employment in government agencies at local, state, and federal levels as well as in civil-society organizations, largely funded by government, to operate social and community development programs aimed at urban areas where Blacks lived. By the end of the 1970s, there was an emergent blue-collar Black middle class in the United States. Most of these workers had no more than high-school educations but had sufficient earnings and benefits to provide their families with economic security, including realistic expectations that their children would have the opportunity to move up the economic ladder to join the ranks of the college-educated white-collar middle class. That is what had happened for whites in the post-World War II decades, and given the momentum provided by the dominant position of the United States in global manufacturing and the nation`s equal employment opportunity legislation, there was every reason to believe that Blacks would experience intergenerational upward mobility along a similar education-and-employment career path. That did not happen. Overall, the 1980s and 1990s were decades of economic growth in the United States. For the emerging blue-collar Black middle class, however, the experience was of job loss, economic insecurity, and downward mobility. As the twentieth century ended and the twenty-first century began, moreover, it became apparent that this downward spiral was not confined to Blacks. Whites with only high-school educations also saw their blue-collar employment opportunities disappear, accompanied by lower wages, fewer benefits, and less security for those who continued to find employment in these jobs. The distress experienced by white Americans with the decline of the blue-collar middle class follows the downward trajectory that has adversely affected the socioeconomic positions of the much more vulnerable blue-collar Black middle class from the early 1980s. In this paper, we document when, how, and why the unmaking of the blue-collar Black middle class occurred and intergenerational upward mobility of Blacks to the college-educated middle class was stifled. We focus on blue-collar layoffs and manufacturing-plant closings in an important sector for Black employment, the automobile industry from the early 1980s. We then document the adverse impact on Blacks that has occurred in government-sector employment in a financialized economy in which the dominant ideology is that concentration of income among the richest households promotes productive investment, with government spending only impeding that objective. Reduction of taxes primarily on the wealthy and the corporate sector, the ascendancy of political and economic beliefs that celebrate the efficiency and dynamism of `free market` business enterprise, and the denigration of the idea that government can solve social problems all combined to shrink government budgets, diminish regulatory enforcement, and scuttle initiatives that previously provided greater opportunity for African Americans in the government and civil-society sectors.
    Keywords: African American, employment relations, equal employment opportunity, unions, blue-collar, employment mobility, automobile industry, government employment, mass-incarceration industries.
    JEL: D2 D3 G3 J0 L2 L6 N8 O3 P1
    Date: 2021–05–20
  5. By: Samuel Bazzi (BU - Boston University [Boston]); Masyhur Hilmy (BU - Boston University [Boston]); Benjamin Marx (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Public schooling systems are an essential feature of modern states. These systems often developed at the expense of religious schools, which undertook the bulk of education historically and still cater to large student populations worldwide. This paper examines how Indonesia's longstanding Islamic school system responded to the construction of 61,000 public elementary schools in the mid-1970s. The policy was designed in part to foster nation building and to curb religious influence in society. We are the first to study the market response to these ideological objectives. Using novel data on Islamic school construction and curriculum, we identify both short-run effects on exposed cohorts as well as dynamic, long-run effects on education markets. While primary enrollment shifted towards state schools, religious education increased on net as Islamic secondary schools absorbed the increased demand for continued education. The Islamic sector not only entered new markets to compete with the state but also increased religious curriculum at newly created schools. Our results suggest that the Islamic sector response increased religiosity at the expense of a secular national identity. Overall, this ideological competition in education undermined the nation-building impacts of mass schooling.
    Date: 2020–05–01
  6. By: Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University and CEPR and NBER)
    Abstract: The second half of the twentieth century saw large-scale suburbanization in the United States, with the median share of residents who work in the same county where they live falling from 87 to 71 percent between 1970 and 2000. We introduce a new methodology for discriminating between the three leading explanations for this suburbanization (workplace attractiveness, residence attractiveness and bilateral commuting frictions). This methodology holds in the class of spatial models that are characterized by a structural gravity equation for commuting. We show that the increased openness of counties to commuting is mainly explained by reductions in bilateral commuting frictions, consistent with the expansion of the interstate highway network and the falling real cost of car ownership. We find that changes in workplace attractiveness and residence attractiveness are more important in explaining the observed shift in employment by workplace and employment by residence towards lower densities over time.
    JEL: R12 R30 R40
    Date: 2021–05
  7. By: Martin, Anne
    Abstract: The legacy of colonialism in Northern Ireland has created an ideological divide between Irish nationalism and British unionism through which many questions of political economy are sorted, including questions of conflict, peace and European integration. This paper examines and considers how divergent nationalist discourses surrounding European integration have developed in Northern Ireland throughout history. This divergence can be linked to the fundamentally different and conflicting historical understandings these nationalist projects have of identity, borders and governance.
    Keywords: European integration,Northern Ireland,nationalism,borders,discourse
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Antonin Aviat; Frédérique Bec; Claude Diebolt; Catherine Doz; Denis Ferrand; Laurent Ferrara; Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Valérie Mignon; Pierre-Alain Pionnier
    Abstract: This paper proposes a reference quarterly dating for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.
    Keywords: business cycles,French economy,dating,narrative approach,econometric modeling
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Guillaume Flamerie de la Chapelle (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Ausonius-Institut de recherche sur l'Antiquité et le Moyen âge - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper uses a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used to fight the 1918 influenza pandemic and control the resultant mortality in 43 U.S. cities. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing, as implemented in 1918, and when applied for a relatively long and sustained time, might have reduced individual and herd immunity and the population general health condition, thereby leading to a significantly higher number of deaths in subsequent years.
    Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions,1918 influenza,difference-in-differences,health policies
    Date: 2020–10–01
  10. By: Charles Angelucci; Julia Cage (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Michael Sinkinson
    Abstract: News media operate in two-sided markets, offering bundles of content to readers as well as selling readers' attention to advertisers. Technological innovations in content delivery, such as the advent of broadcast television or of the Internet, affect both sides of the market, threatening the basic economic model of print news operations. We examine how the entry of television affected local newspapers as well as consumer media diets in the United States. We develop a model of print media and show that entry of national television news could adversely affect the provision of local news. We construct a novel dataset of U.S. newspapers' economic performance and content choices from 1944 to 1964. Our empirical strategy exploits quasi-random variation in the timing of the entry of television in different markets. We show that the entry of television was a negative shock for newspapers, particularly evening newspapers, in both the readership and advertising markets. Further, we find a drop in the total quantity of news printed, in particular original reporting, raising concerns about the provision of local news.
    Date: 2020–02–01
  11. By: Gregg, Amanda; Ruderman, Anne
    Abstract: The French slave ship the Bonne Société traded bundles of goods in exchange for slaves in the port of Loango in the late eighteenth century. This paper presents detailed evidence from the ship’s trading log that decomposes the goods in the bundle and, uniquely, identifies the European and African merchants who sold captives to the boat. We examine the cross-cultural trade documented by this dataset and show that total prices increased throughout the trade, since the ship faced time pressure as soon as the first captive was aboard, and that the captain increased the price of the bundle by adding more goods and especially by adding high-price goods. We also show that sellers participated both as one-shot traders and as repeat traders, selling the ship captives at multiple points in the trade, and that sellers with honorifics indicating status positions did not appear to earn greater prices as observed in the trading log. The market we observe was neither purely based on barter nor based on goods as substitutes for currency. Our results thus add a nuanced picture of how a trade that destroyed the lives of millions of people worked “on the ground.”
    Keywords: slave trade; markets; Atlantic world; West Central Africa
    JEL: N77 N87 Z13
    Date: 2021–10–01
  12. By: Dozie (Dalhousie University); Roland Pongou (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)
    Abstract: How and why have colonial-era Christian missions brought about social change in the long run? This paper addresses this question by causally estimating average and heterogeneous effects of colonial-era Christian missions on schooling, fertility, and household wealth in Nigeria. Our identification strategy exploits discontinuities in mission stations around the borders of the Emirates of Northern Nigeria, where missionary activities were restricted by the colonial administration. We find that areas with greater historical missionary activities have higher levels of schooling, lower levels of fertility, and higher household wealth today. Consistent with the predictions of a simple model, the long-run effect of missions on current schooling is not found in areas with early access to government schools, and is larger for population subgroups-women and Muslims-that have historically suffered disadvantages in access to education. Importantly, we show that the restriction of missions from the Emirates of Northern Nigeria has led to a reversal of fortunes, wherein areas that were more prosperous and institutionally developed in the past are relatively poorer today.
    Keywords: Christian Missions, Restrictions, Education, Fertility, Wealth, Reversal of Fortunes, Het- erogeneity, Emirates of Northern Nigeria, Indirect Rule, Africa.
    Date: 2021
  13. By: María Beatriz García-Dereix
    Abstract: Este documento estudia el periodo 1980-1984 durante el cual el Banco de la República comenzó su programación cultural en Cartagena y, en particular, cómo esta se incorporó en sus dinámicas artísticas previas. La investigación se centra en el estudio de las circunstancias que se dieron en la ciudad y el país para que las políticas gubernamentales cambiaran la forma de ver las regiones y su empoderamiento con respecto a los proyectos artísticos que se generaron, especialmente al interior del Banco de la República. Este documento tiene dos propósitos: (i) recolectar archivos para documentar un momento particular del arte en Cartagena y en la historia institucional del Banco de la República como actor cultural; y (ii) retroalimentar la gestión cultural del Banco de la República. Estudiar estos procesos históricos es fundamental para evaluar proyectos y trayectorias con miras a pensar el presente y el futuro de la gestión en artes de la Sucursal Cartagena del Banco de la República. ****** This document studies the period 1980-1984 during which the Banco de la República began its cultural programming in Cartagena and, specifically, how it was incorporated into its previous artistic dynamics. The research focuses on the study of the circumstances that occurred at the national and local level so that government policies changed the way of seeing the regions and their empowerment with respect to the artistic projects that were generated, especially within the Banco de la Republic. This document has two purposes: (i) to collect files to document a particular moment of art in Cartagena and in the institutional history of Banco de la República as a cultural actor; and (ii) to provide feedback on the cultural management of Banco de la República. Studying these historical processes is essential to evaluate projects and trajectories with a view to thinking about the present and the future of arts management at the Cartagena Branch of Banco de la República.
    Keywords: Cartagena, Culture, Art, Banco de la República, Cartagena, Cultura, Arte, Banco de la República
    JEL: N96 Z11
    Date: 2021–10
  14. By: Cyprien Batut (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, DGTPE - Direction Générale du Trésor et de la Politique Economique - Ministère de l'Economie, des Finances et de l'Industrie); Ulysse Lojkine (UPN - Université Paris Nanterre, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Paolo Santini (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In this paper, we look at the long term evolution of the composition of union membershipin the four largest European countries: France, West Germany, Italy, and the United King-dom. Using unexploited micro data coming from post electoral, labor, and household surveys,we first revisit commonly accepted unionization levels from the past 60 years. We find that,for France and Italy, union density was at time under- and over- estimated respectively. Sec-ond, we present long run evidence on the evolution of the composition of unions in terms ofthe socio-economic characteristics (occupation, length of education, public or private sector,gender) of their members. Two types of unionisation emerge from this analysis. In Franceand Italy, the composition of unions has been primarily determined by structural changesin the composition of the workforce with no notable changes in the selection of the differentgroups into unions when aggregate density varied. In the UK and West Germany, instead,selection into unions has changed dramatically: Blue collars and less educated worker wereover-represented in the '60s, but this has declined over time. We argue that these two typesof unionization are related to the institutional characteristics of each country and show thatthe evolution of selection into union is linked to the public-sectorization of unions: as uniondensity fall, the share of public workers in unions increases.
    Date: 2021–09
  15. By: Carlo Zappia (Università degli Studi di Siena)
    Abstract: On the occasion of the assessment of the enduring influence of Keynes's Treatise on Probability at 100 years, this paper focuses on its relevance for decision theory. The paper places emphasis on Keynes's introduction of the epistemic notion of probabilities that often are non-numerical, as a theoretical object intended to replace frequency probabilities. The paper argues that, as non-numerical probabilities make it possible to deal with uncertainty as if individuals were endowed with interval-valued probabilities, Keynes's 1921 critique of contemporary frequency probability theory turns out to be relevant also with regard to the yet to be established subjective probability theory. Although non-numerical probabilities were used by Keynes to criticize the contemporary application of probability to conduct, it must be acknowledged that, still today, they may constitute an appropriate tool for decision-making when confronting uncertainty, as he hinted at in his late 1930s correspondence with Hugh Townshend.
    Keywords: probability, uncertainty, decision-making
    JEL: B21 B31 D81
    Date: 2021–10
  16. By: Maria Caridad Araujo (Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank); Karen Macours (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In 1997, the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. A large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresa's experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa. We focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the first years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the early childhood cohort, 18–20- year-old at endline, shows that differential exposure to Progresa during the early years led to positive impacts on educational attainment and labor income expectations. This constitutes unique long-term evidence on the returns of an at-scale intervention on investments in human capital during the first 1000 days of life. Results for the school cohort - in their early 30s at endline - show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling were sustained in the long-run and manifested themselves in larger labor incomes, more geographical mobility including through international migration, and later family formation.
    Date: 2021–10
  17. By: Marc Flandreau (University of Pennsylvania); Stefano Pietrosanti (Bank of Italy); Carlotta E. Schuster (UNCTAD)
    Abstract: This paper explores the reasons why sovereign borrowers post collateral. Such behavior is paradoxical because conventional interpretations of collateral stress repossession of the assets pledged as the key to securing lenders against information asymmetries and moral hazard. However, repossession is generally difficult in the case of sovereign debt and in some cases impossible. Nevertheless, such sovereign `hypothecations` have a long history and are again becoming very popular today in developing countries. To explain sovereign collateralization, we emphasize an informational channel. Posting collateral produces information on opaque borrowers by displaying borrowers` behavior and resources. We support this interpretation by examining the hypothecation `mania` of 1849-1875, when sovereigns borrowing in the London Stock Exchange pledged all kinds of intangible revenues. Yet, at that time, sovereign immunity fully protected both sovereigns and their assets and possessions. Still, we show that hypothecations significantly decreased the cost of sovereign debt. To explain how, we stress the pledges` role in documenting sovereigns` wealth and the management of revenue streams. Based on an exhaustive library of bond prospectuses collected from primary sources, matched with a panel of sovereign bond yields and an innovative measure of sovereign fiscal transparency, we show that collateral minutely described in debt covenants served to document and monitor sovereign resources and development prospects. Encasing this information in contracts written by lawyers served to certify the quality of the resulting data disclosure process, explaining investors` readiness to pay a premium.
    Keywords: Collateral, Information, Sovereign debt, Informal enforcement, Financial innovation, Contract innovation
    JEL: N20 G24 K12 K33 H63
    Date: 2021–10–07
  18. By: Stéphane Gauthier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Ce texte s'intéresse aux marchés du seigle de la Corrèze en s'appuyant sur les mercuriales du département depuis le traité de libre-échange de 1860 jusqu'à la fin de la Grande Dépression Agricole en 1896. De 1860 à 1882, tous les marchés locaux sont intégrés et restent isolés des échanges commerciaux internationaux. Ils se retrouvent ex- posés à partir de 1883 et se fragmentent : Brive et Tulle s'ancrent sur les grandes bourses internationales et se détachent d'Ussel.
    Keywords: Mercuriales,Corrèze,Seigle,Fragmentation,Première Mondialisation,Grande Dépression Agricole
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: Benny Andersen
    Abstract: This paper analyses the origins of the Greek economic and financial crisis, covering 1981 to 2012. The work depicts how unsustainable imbalances built up over a prolonged period, often fueled by ample low-cost financing sources. It analyses the underlying forces such as institutional shortcomings, data misreporting, and deeply engrained social values and practices that nurtured a climate of widespread corruption and political favoritism. The paper addresses the achievements and shortcomings of the 2010 international support programme and its overall weak traction in Greece. While deficiencies in international surveillance and financial architecture played a role, the paper concludes that the key drivers of the crisis and of the mixed progress in the previous decades were home-grown.
    Date: 2020–06–11
  20. By: Sofia Patsali (Université Côte d'Azur, France; CNRS, GREDEG); Michele Pezzoni (Université Côte d'Azur, France; CNRS, GREDEG); Fabiana Visentin (Maastricht University; UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effect of research independence during the PhD period on students' career outcomes. We use a unique and detailed dataset on the French population of STEM PhD students who graduated between 1995 and 2013. To measure research independence, we compare the PhD thesis content with the supervisor's research. We employ advanced neural network text analysis techniques evaluating the similarity between student's thesis abstract and supervisor's publications during the PhD period. After exploring which characteristics of the PhD training experience and supervisor explain the level of research similarity, we estimate how similarity associates with the likelihood of pursuing a research career. We find that the student thesis's similarity with her supervisor's research work is negatively associated with starting a career in academia and patenting probability. Increasing the PhD-supervisor similarity score by one standard deviation is associated with a 2.1 percentage point decrease in the probability of obtaining an academic position and a 0.57 percentage point decrease in the probability of patenting. However, conditional on starting an academic career, PhD-supervisor similarity is associated with a higher student's productivity after graduation as measured by citations received, network size, and probability of moving to a foreign or US-based affiliation.
    Keywords: Research independence, Early career researchers, Scientific career outcomes, Neural network text analysis
    JEL: D22 O30 O33 O38
    Date: 2021–10
  21. By: Deodhar, Satish Y.
    Abstract: For millennia, gold is considered auspicious in India and consumers have a fascination for possessing gold, gold jewellery, and gold coins. In this paper I document the sacredness associated with gold, the ancient Indian references to gold jewellery, availability and technology of extracting gold in those times, minting of gold coins and its function as a medium of exchange and store of value, and accumulation of gold stock due to favourable trade with the Occident in the common era. I draw attention to Indian obsession with gold in modern times, when none is produced domestically and it contributing negatively to India’s external account. The gargantuan stock of about 24,245 tonnes of gold in India has to be considered as accumulated hoardings and not accumulated savings. Along with increasing the propensity of flow of savings going into financial markets and not in physical gold; suggestions are made to popularize and improve implementation of gold monetization scheme (GMS). This will re-channel idle stock of gold into financial markets and reduce deficit on the external account.
    Date: 2021–11–02
  22. By: Häner, Melanie; Schaltegger, Christoph A.
    JEL: I24 J62 N33
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Isabel Garrido (Banco de España)
    Abstract: En las últimas décadas se han logrado notables avances en la lucha contra la pobreza y en la reducción de la desigualdad a escala global, que las dos grandes crisis de este siglo amenazan con revertir. Dadas sus responsabilidades y el ámbito global de actuación, el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) ha sido un actor con influencia sobre las políticas para hacer frente a la desigualdad y a la pobreza en el mundo. El relato histórico de la transformación de las políticas del Fondo en sus 75 años de vida desvela en qué medida cada uno de sus agentes internos (gerencia, miembros y plantilla) ha influido en la evolución de su posición institucional respecto a estos retos. El análisis basado en la metodología de «minería de textos» de los documentos que articulan la posición de cada uno de estos agentes permite arrojar luz sobre el grado de alineamiento entre los discursos de la institución y la descripción de los hechos históricos.
    Keywords: FMI, desigualdad, género, pobreza, medioambiente
    JEL: F33 I3 N20
    Date: 2021–10
  24. By: Maris-Alix Deval (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Hooge; Benoit Weil
    Abstract: The paper studies the emergence of unknown domain of expertise in an established French technological firm with a strong organization of experts. The research is built on a quantitative and qualitative longitudinal research partnership with Renault (global car manufacturer). This research highlights 4 main results: Firstly, in the case of an industrial company like Renault, it took around 29 years to constitute the first domains of expertise, but since then, new domains have been formalized in just a decade. In the case of emergent domains of expertise, we do not yet know how long will be needed for them to be fully institutionalized. In this way (second result), external peer's community can acknowledge the expertise of a company, and not only of an expert. Thirdly, all the experts in industries are not strategic and exact & experimental scientific or technical expert, they can also be experts in social sciences, and strategic for the other experts instead of just for the company. Finally, research collaborations are a way to create and reinforce a domain of expertise, both for an expert and for the company.
    Date: 2021–07–06
  25. By: Ahmet Faruk Aysan (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University); Dilek Demirbas; Mustafa Disli; Monica Parra
    Date: 2021–10–07
  26. By: Laurent Gauthier (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)
    Abstract: In ancient Greece, people carried a single name, and some names were quite common, while others were very rare. If these names were used to distinguish people, why didn't everybody have a different name? Looking into the manner in which the ancient Greeks picked names, we develop an economic model for the existence of names, as a way of exchanging identification information. Considering different information frameworks, we justify the exchange of names in this context as the best system in order to promote cooperation. We then study the optimal choice of names in these conditions and show that the impact of strategic naming on the distribution of names works as an alteration of existing mean-field approaches to name dynamics, which converge to power laws. Strategic naming adds a degree of freedom in the relationship between the observed number of names and the shape of the power law distribution. Confronting these results to empirical data from the archaic and classical periods, we observe that a form of conformist strategic naming could account for the particular shape of the name distribution in Ancient Greece, which differs from contemporary data.
    Keywords: Ancient Greece,prisonner's dilemma,onomastics,name distributions,power laws
    Date: 2021–10–07
  27. By: Wache, Benjamin
    JEL: F3 G14 N2 N7
    Date: 2021

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