nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒11‒01
27 papers chosen by

  1. The Economic Consequences of the Opium War By Wolfgang Keller; Carol H. Shiue
  2. Interest Rates, Sanitation Infrastructure, and Mortality Decline in Nineteenth-Century England and Wales By Jonathan Chapman
  3. Method and scope in Joseph A. Schumpeter's economics: a pluralist perspective By Turan Yay
  4. China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: Further Concerns about the Historical GDP Estimates for China By Peter M. Solar
  5. It Takes Money to Make MPs: Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign Spending By Julia Cage; Edgard Dewitte
  6. J'Accuse! Antisemitism and Financial Markets in the Time of the Dreyfus Affair By Quoc-Anh Do; Roberto Galbiati; Benjamin Marx; Miguel Ortiz Serrano
  7. "The Best Country in the World": The Surprising Social Mobility of New York’s Irish Famine Immigrants By Tyler Anbinder; Cormac Ó Gráda; Simone Wegge
  8. Regional How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention? By Alain Naef; Jacob P. Weber
  9. A first French episode in the renewal of nonlinear theory of economic cycles By Alain Raybaut
  10. Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization By Ruthardt, Fabian; Potrafke, Niklas; Wüthrich, Kaspar
  11. Heroes and Villains: The Effects of Combat Heroism on Autocratic Values and Nazi Collaboration in France By Julia Cage; Anna Dagorret; Pauline Grosjean; Saumitra Jha
  12. Roots of Gender Equality : the Persistent Effect of Beguinages on Attitudes Toward Women By Èric Roca Fernández; Annalisa Frigo
  13. Debates Over The Place Of The Septuagint In The Orthodox Tradition By Mikhail G. Seleznev
  14. Marx's Rate of Profit and the Theory of Labour values as Conservation Law By Giovanni Scarano
  15. The Human Side of Structural Transformation By Tommaso Porzio; Federico Rossi; Gabriella V. Santangelo
  16. A Bibliography of Free Banking Scholarship (2021) By Qiao, Elizabeth
  17. Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here? By Karl Whelan
  18. Education And Revolutions. Why Do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent Or Nonviolent Forms? By Ilya A. Medvedev; Vadim V. Ustyuzhanin; Andrey V. Korotayev
  19. The redistributive effects of enfranchising non-citizens. Evidence from Sweden By Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe; Santiago Sanchez-Pages; Angel Solano-Garcia
  20. Une histoire de la surveillance de la qualité de l’eau des milieux naturels en France By Y Zaiter; ; Destandau
  21. Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Equilibrium Determinacy By Jae Won Lee; Woong Yong Park
  22. « L’Allemagne paiera » (1918-1932) By Vincent Touzé
  23. Conceptualizing the Modern American Public University: Early Debates Over Utilitarianism, Autonomy, and Admissions by John Aubrey Douglass, CSHE 8.21 By Douglass, John A
  24. A regulationist approach to the decline of the labor share in the value added By Sandrine Michel
  25. Born in the land of milk and honey: The impact of economic growth on individual wealth accumulation By Bartels, Charlotte; König, Johannes; Schröder, Carsten
  26. Persistence, Randomization, and Spatial Noise By Morgan Kelly
  27. The poverty debate in Italy: from politics to statistics By Andrea Brandolini

  1. By: Wolfgang Keller; Carol H. Shiue
    Abstract: This paper studies the economic consequences of the West’s foray into China after the Opium War (1839-42), when Western colonial influence was introduced in dozens of so-called treaty ports. We document a turnaround during the 19th century in the nature of China’s capital markets. Whereas before the Opium War, coastal cities were of relatively minor importance, the treaty port system of the West transformed China into an economy focused on coastal areas and on international trade that aligned with the trading interests of the West. We show, first, that the West had a positive impact on China’s economy during the 19th century. It brought down local interest rates, and regions under Western influence exhibited both higher rates of industry growth and technology adoption. Second, the geographic scope of influence went far beyond the ports, impacting most of China. Interest rates fell by more than a quarter in the immediate vicinity of the ports and still by almost ten percent at distances of 450 kilometers from treaty ports. The development of China was not simply propelled by its own pre-1800 history, or by post-1978 reforms. The nearly 100 years of semi-colonization have shaped China’s economy today as one focused on the coastal areas.
    JEL: F63 G10 N25 O11
    Date: 2021–10
  2. By: Jonathan Chapman (New York University Abu Dhabi)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether high borrowing costs deterred investment in sanitation infrastructure in late nineteenth-century Britain. Town councils had to borrow to fund investment, with considerable variation in interest rates across towns and over time. Panel regressions, using annual data from over eight hundred town councils, indicate that higher interest rates were associated with lower levels of infrastructure investment between 1887 and 1903. Instrumental variable regressions show that falling interest rates after 1887 stimulated investment and led to lower infant mortality. These findings suggest that Parliament could have expedited mortality decline by subsidizing loans or facilitating private borrowing.
    Keywords: interest rates, public investment, sanitation, Britain, urban infrastructure, mortality decline
    JEL: N23 N33 N43 N93
    Date: 2021–10
  3. By: Turan Yay (Yeditepe University)
    Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the ideas on the scope and method of economics of Joseph Schumpeter who is one of the important economists of the 20th century. The study consists of four sections: In the first section we underline the interesting points of his life to understand the roots, background, or 'vision' of his thought system. In the second section, we will examine his methodological views that he asserted in his first (but translated into English only in 2010) book. Third section will be concerned with his 'analysis of economics' which refers to his critics of Leon Walras's general equilibrium analysis (as static) and his own alternative (dynamics analysis of capitalist economies) about the central subject matter of economics. In the fourth section we will treat his approach about the development/evolution process of economic thought in time. The study concludes with a brief assessment: Schumpeter is one of the rare economists who can build his own thought system in the history of economics, and he embraced a pluralist perspective in the field of the methodology of economics.
    Keywords: Schumpeter,methodology,economic development,sociology of science
    Date: 2021–11–20
  4. By: Peter M. Solar (CEREC, Université Saint-Louis - Bruxelles and Faculty of History, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: Broadberry, Guan and Li (2018) made estimates for China’s GDP per capita from 980 to 1840 in order to date the onset of the Great Divergence between China and western European economies. In response to Solar’s (2021) criticisms, they (2021) made some revisions to the estimates but largely dismissed most of Solar’s concerns, particularly those about their series for China’s population and its implications for dating the Great Divergence. This working paper assesses their revisions, reaffirms concerns about the level of their 1840 benchmark, and points out the weaknesses of the population figures in greater detail. The dating of the Great Divergence turns out to depend on the population series used and on the interpretation of what was happening to incomes in China during the mid-seventeenth century. This paper recommends considerable skepticism about Broadberry, Guan and Li’s estimates.
    Keywords: China, Great Divergence, historical national accounts, population
    JEL: E1 N15 O47 O53
    Date: 2021–10
  5. By: Julia Cage (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Edgard Dewitte (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We study electoral campaigns over the long run, through the lens of their spending. In particular, we ask whether changing media technologies and electoral environments impacted patterns of spending and their correlation with electoral results. To do so, we build a novel exhaustive dataset on general elections in the United Kingdom from 1857 to 2017, which includes information on campaign spending (itemized by expense categories), electoral outcomes and socio-demographic characteristics for 69, 042 election-constituency candidates. We start by providing new insights on the history of British political campaigns, in particular the growing importance of advertising material, including via digital means, to the detriment of paid staff and electoral meetings. We then show that there is a strong positive correlation between expenditures and votes, and that overall the magnitude of this relationship has strongly increased since the 1880s, with a peak in the last quarter of the 20th century. We link these transformations to changes in the conduct of campaigns, and to the introduction of new information technologies. We show in particular that the expansion of local radio and broadband Internet increased the sensitivity of the electoral results to differences in campaign spending. These results encourage greater contextualization in the drafting of campaign finance regulations.
    Keywords: Elections,Campaign finance,Electoral expenditures,Information technologies
    Date: 2021–09–01
  6. By: Quoc-Anh Do (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Roberto Galbiati (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Benjamin Marx (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Miguel Ortiz Serrano (UC3M - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid])
    Abstract: This paper studies discrimination in financial markets in the context of the "Dreyfus Affair" in 19th century France. We analyze the market performance of firms with Jewish board members during this historical episode. Building on empirical evidence and a model with antisemitic and unbiased agents, we show how investors betting on firms with Jewish connections earned higher returns during the media campaign organized to rehabilitate Dreyfus, the unfairly accused Jewish officer at the center of the Affair. Our paper provides novel evidence that discrimination can affect stock prices and create rents for some market participants. While these rents may attract betting against discriminators, the uncertainty surrounding discriminatory beliefs can limit the extent of arbitrage and allow discrimination to survive in the long run.
    Keywords: Antisemitism,Financial Markets,Discrimination
    Date: 2020–12–01
  7. By: Tyler Anbinder; Cormac Ó Gráda; Simone Wegge
    Abstract: We use databases we have created from the records of New York’s Emigrant Savings Bank, founded by pre-Famine Irish immigrants and their children to serve Famine era immigrants, to study the social mobility of bank customers and, by extension, Irish immigrants more generally. We infer that New York’s Famine Irish had a greater range of employment opportunities open to them than perhaps commonly acknowledged, and that the majority were eventually able to move a rung or two up the American socio-economic ladder, supporting the conviction of many Famine immigrants that the U.S. was indeed “the best country in the world.”
    Keywords: Famine; Migration; Ireland; New York
    JEL: N0 N3 J6 G21
    Date: 2021–08
  8. By: Alain Naef; Jacob P. Weber
    Abstract: Though most central banks actively intervene on the foreign exchange market, the literature offers mixed evidence on their effectiveness: particularly for unannounced interventions. We use new, declassified data from the archives of the Bank of England and the institutional features of the Bretton Woods era to estimate the effects of intervention on the exchange rate. We find that a purchase of pounds equivalent to 1% of the money supply causes a statistically significant, 4-5 basis point appreciation in the pound.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Markets, Bretton Woods System
    JEL: F3 N2
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Alain Raybaut (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019))
    Abstract: This paper focusses on some relatively neglected French contributions to the revival of nonlinear business theory around 1980. Drawing on the formal distinction between continuous and discrete-time modeling, we investigate the mathematical and analytical features of these contributions. The Benassy model exemplifies the use of the Poincaré-Bendixon theorem to prove the existence of endogenous cycles in a simple non-Walrasian framework. The discretization of Kaldor's model by Dana and Malgrange mobilizes recent advances in bifurcation theory and chaotic dynamics developed at the same time by French scholars in dynamical systems. It is shown that both contributions build on the aggregate macroeconomic framework, but differ substantially in their objectives and ambition. Benassy mobilizes the nonlinear approach to extend his non-Walrasian theory to short-term dynamics. On the contrary, Dana and Malgrange are more interested in the operational aspects of nonlinear modeling. For the these reasons, this second line of research will contribute to further important developments in nonlinear dynamics in France, albeit in a different perspective.
    Keywords: Endogenous business cycle theory,Nonlinear dynamics,Non-Walrasian and Kaldorian macrodynamics
    Date: 2021–06
  10. By: Ruthardt, Fabian; Potrafke, Niklas; Wüthrich, Kaspar
    JEL: C33 D72 F10 F13 N10 O11
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Julia Cage (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Anna Dagorret (Stanford University); Pauline Grosjean (UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]); Saumitra Jha (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Can heroes legitimize strongly-proscribed and repugnant political behaviors? We exploit the purposefully arbitrary rotation of French regiments to measure the legitimizing effects of heroic credentials. 53% of French line regiments happened to rotate under a specific general, Philippe Pétain, during the pivotal WWI battle of Verdun (1916). Using recently declassified intelligence data on 95,314 individuals, we find the home municipalities of regiments serving under Pétain at Verdun raised 7% more Nazi collaborators during the Pétain led Vichy regime (1940-44). The effects are similar across joining Fascist parties, German forces, paramilitaries that hunted Jews and the Resistance, and collaborating economically. These municipalities also increasingly vote for right-wing parties between the wars. The voting effects persist after WWII, becoming particularly salient during social crises. We argue these results reflect the complementary role of the heroes of Verdun in legitimizing and diffusing the authoritarian values of their former leader.
    Keywords: Heroes,Leaders,Democratic Values,Autocracy,Identity,Networks,Votes,Legitimacy
    Date: 2020–12–01
  12. By: Èric Roca Fernández (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Annalisa Frigo (IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with the historical roots of gender equality. It proposes and empirically assesses a new determinant of gender equality: gender-specific outside options in the marriage market. In particular, enlarging women's options besides marriage-even if only temporarily-increases their bargaining power with respect to men, leading to a persistent improvement in gender equality. We illustrate this mechanism focusing on Belgium, and relate gender-equality levels in the 19th century to the presence of medieval, female-only communities called beguinages that allowed women to remain single amidst a society that traditionally advocated marriage. Combining geo-referenced data on beguinal communities with 19th-century census data, we document that the presence of beguinages contributed to decrease the gender gap in literacy. The reduction is sizeable, amounting to a 12.3% drop in gender educational inequality. Further evidence of the beguinal legacy is provided leveraging alternative indicators of female agency.
    Keywords: Economic Persistence,Culture,Institutions,Religion,Gender Gap,J16,N33,O15,O43,Z12. 2,I25
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Mikhail G. Seleznev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In polemics of Orthodox theologians with Jews, Protestants and Catholics, the Septuagint has often been regarded as the hallmark of Orthodoxy. However, throughout the history of the Orthodox tradition violent polemics against allegedly corrupted Hebrew Bible existed side by side with the usage of the same Hebrew Bible text in commentaries and translations. The Orthodox theology of today has to reckon with the fact of textual pluralism in the transmission and translation of the Bible. A more in-depth study of the complicated history of the Septuagint in its relationship with the Hebrew Bible is to be found in the monograph «Introduction to the Septuagint. Bible on the crossroads of Hebrew and Greek traditions» by the present author (to appear in 2022 in Russian)
    Keywords: Hebrew Bible, Greek Bible, Septuagint, Masoretic text, Bible translation, Orthodox Christianity, theology.
    JEL: Y9
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Giovanni Scarano
    Abstract: The paper argues that Ricardo’s concern with determining the rate of profit had no central place in Marx’s analysis. Marx, in fact, utilised his own version of the labour theory of value – very different from that of Smith and Ricardo – not to determine the rate of profit, but to analyse the dynamics of economic aggregates and bring to light the inner social nature of production and distribution processes. The present analysis of the peculiar use of Marx’s labour theory of value is also an attempt to explain the role played by it in his system, for better or worse. The final thesis of the paper is that, in his system, Marx’s version of the labour theory of value plays the same role that conservation laws play in most physics theories, with significant consequences for an understanding of the dynamics of capital accumulation, business cycles and economic crises.
    Keywords: Labour theory of value, prices of production, rate of profit, transformation problem, conservation laws
    JEL: B14 B24 B51 C67
    Date: 2021–10
  15. By: Tommaso Porzio; Federico Rossi; Gabriella V. Santangelo
    Abstract: We document that nearly half of the global decline in agricultural employment during the 20th-century was driven by new cohorts entering the labor market. A newly compiled dataset of policy reforms supports an interpretation of these cohort effects as human capital. Through the lens of a model of frictional labor reallocation, we conclude that human capital growth, both as a mediating factor and as an independent driver, led to a sharp decline in the agricultural labor supply. This decline accounts, at fixed prices, for 40% of the decrease in agricultural employment. This aggregate effect is roughly halved in general equilibrium.
    JEL: J24 J43 J62 L16 O11 O14 O18 R23
    Date: 2021–10
  16. By: Qiao, Elizabeth (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)
    Abstract: In this paper, the author provides a bibliography of major and minor scholarly writings on free banking up to mid-2021. It is helpful both for expanding knowledge of the history of free banking and for providing references that may be useful for thinking about some aspects of cryptocurrencies.
    Keywords: Bibliography; free banking
    JEL: E42 E50
    Date: 2021–10–23
  17. By: Karl Whelan
    Abstract: The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and the role that should be played by central banks. The paper highlights the roles played by two streams of thought associated with Milton Friedman: Monetarist theories predicting a key role for monetary aggregates in determining inflation and the rise in popularity of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. We discuss influence of the latter in determining the modern consensus on central bank institutions and the relative roles for fiscal and monetary policies. We conclude with a discussion of macroeconomic developments of the past decade and current policy options to stimulate the economy and restore inflation to its target levels, including the merits of “helicopter money”.
    Keywords: Inflation; Central banks; Phillips curve; Milton Friedman
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2021–08
  18. By: Ilya A. Medvedev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vadim V. Ustyuzhanin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey V. Korotayev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. This paper examines it at a cross-national level with an analysis of 370 revolutionary episodes recorded between 1950 and 2019. By using logistic regression and our own index, we fully confirmed the hypothesis: education is a strong and consistently significant predictor of the form of revolutionary movement
    Keywords: education, revolutions, nonviolent revolution, violent revolution, destabilization, protest campaigns
    JEL: D74
    Date: 2021
  19. By: Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe (: Departamento de Fundamentos del An·lisis EconÛmico (FAE), Universidad de Alicante.); Santiago Sanchez-Pages (King's College London.); Angel Solano-Garcia (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)
    Abstract: We study theoretically and empirically the redistributive effects of extending voting rights to non-citizens. Our model predicts a tax increase when newly enfranchised voters represent a sufficiently large fraction of voters. We study the 1975 Swedish electoral reform that extended voting rights to non-citizens in municipal elections. In the first term after the reform, there was a tax increase that was not repeated in subsequent terms. This increase was stronger the greater the foreign population in the municipality. This effect was concentrated in municipalities where the size of the non-citizen population was large enough to upturn the previous electoral outcome.
    Keywords: : Immigration, Conflict, Income redistribution, Inequality, enfranchisement.
    JEL: D72 D74 F22
    Date: 2021–10–20
  20. By: Y Zaiter; ; Destandau (UMR GESTE - Gestion Territoriale de l'Eau et de l'environnement - ENGEES - École Nationale du Génie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement de Strasbourg - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Les réseaux de surveillance de l'eau jouent un rôle important dans la collecte d'information sur la qualité et la quantité de l'eau. Pour l'aspect quantitatif, les premiers réseaux de surveillance datent de 1840. La surveillance qualitative de la ressource en eau a, quant à elle, débuté avec la loi sur l'eau de 1964. Ces réseaux ont, par la suite, connu une évolution au fil des lois et Directives européennes sur l'eau. Dans cet article, nous retraçons, dans une première partie, l'histoire de ces réseaux de surveillance en France en distinguant trois périodes : les premiers réseaux découlant de la loi sur l'eau de 1964, les évolutions résultant des Directives européennes des années 70 à 90, et enfin les réseaux de surveillance depuis la Directive-cadre sur l'eau de 2000. Dans une seconde partie, nous nous intéressons en particulier au bassin Rhin-Meuse, en présentant les différents réseaux existants : la déclinaison des réseaux nationaux exposés précédemment, mais également les réseaux locaux spécifiques.
    Keywords: Gestion de l'eau,Qualité de l'eau,Réseaux de surveillance,Lois et Directives sur l'eau,Approche historique Water management,Water quality,Monitoring networks,Water laws and Directives,Historical approach
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Jae Won Lee; Woong Yong Park
    Abstract: This paper shows that the requirement for monetary policy to achieve equilibrium determinacy is substantially loosened when price change frequencies are heterogeneous. The result holds both in a simple sticky price model with the constant elasticity of substitution aggregator and no trend inflation and in an extended model with a variable elasticity of substitution aggregator that permits trend inflation at the historical level. With a realistic cross-sectional distribution of the price change frequency, monetary policy can achieve equilibrium determinacy with much weaker responses to inflation. We then revisit the debate on the role of monetary policy in the transition from the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation in the postwar US economy. The evidence that the US economy was subject to self-fulfilling expectations-driven fluctuations in the pre-Volcker period and that the systematic shift in the monetary policy rule has played a decisive role in stabilizing inflation is found to be much weakerthan previously concluded in the literature.
    Keywords: Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness; Equilibrium Determinacy; Sectoral Relative Price Dispersion; Monetary Policy; Great Inflation
    JEL: E12 E31 E43 E52 N12
    Date: 2021–10
  22. By: Vincent Touzé (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Les réparations allemandes destinées aux pays vainqueurs de la Première Guerre mondiale constituent une brève histoire qui s'étend de 1918 à 1932. Bien que courte, cette période est intense en événements politiques et économiques qui vont faire du Traité de Versailles un échec, ou tout du moins, un armistice prolongé jusqu'au retour des premières hostilités de 1939. Cet article essaie de comprendre comment la résolution du choc de réallocation d'actifs/passifs provoqué par la Première Guerre mondiale – les Alliés se sont fortement endettés auprès des Américains ; l'Allemagne doit s'acquitter d'une lourde obligation de réparations – a animé la période de l'entre-deux-guerres. L'article revient sur les attentes politiques et économiques au moment de la rédaction du traité de paix. Il montre également comment la question du paiement des réparations a été liée à celle du règlement des dettes interalliées conduisant à des stratégies non coordonnées et finalement à l'abandon des créances. Enfin, est développée dans cet article, de façon inédite, une analyse cliométrique contrefactuelle à l'aide d'un modèle simple de finances publiques intertemporelles qui donne une mesure du besoin budgétaire et de l'impact intergénérationnel qu'aurait pu avoir le paiement des réparations s'il avait été intégralement honoré.
    Keywords: réparations,dettes interalliées,plan Dawes,plan Young,défaut de paiement,analyse cliométrique contrefactuelle
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Douglass, John A
    Keywords: Education
    Date: 2021–07–01
  24. By: Sandrine Michel (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - UM - Université de Montpellier - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Focusing in the decline of the labor share in the value added since the 1980s, this article examines the continued and widespread deterioration of the Fordist wage labor nexus. It focuses on the differentiated fate on direct and indirect wages.
    Abstract: A travers le déclin de la part de la rémunération du travail dans la valeur ajoutée depuis les années 1980, cet article examine la dégradation continue et généralisée du rapport salarial fordiste. Il se concentre sur le sort différencié du salaire direct et du salaire indirect.
    Date: 2021–07–01
  25. By: Bartels, Charlotte; König, Johannes; Schröder, Carsten
    JEL: D31 D64 O47
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Morgan Kelly
    Abstract: Historical persistence studies and other regressions using spatial data commonly have severely inflated t statistics, and different standard error adjustments to correct for this return markedly different estimates. This paper proposes a simple randomization inference procedure where the significance level of an explanatory variable is measured by its ability to outperform synthetic noise with the same estimated spatial structure. Spatial noise, in other words, acts as a treatment randomization in an artificial experiment based on correlated observational data. Combined with Müller and Watson (2021), randomization gives a way to estimate credible confidence intervals for spatial regressions. The performance of twenty persistence studies relative to spatial noise is examined.
    Keywords: Historical persistence; Spatial data; Randomization inference; Spatial noise
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–10
  27. By: Andrea Brandolini (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Some significant stages characterise the debate on poverty in Italy over the last seventy years: the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry into Poverty and the Means to Combat It in the early 1950s; the long period of the Poverty Commission, established in 1984 and definitively abolished in 2012; and the European Commission’s initiatives. When looking back at these stages from the specific perspective of statistical measurement, a close link emerges between the institutionalisation of the measure of poverty in official statistics and the political process, both national and international. The resulting wealth of statistical information, however, requires attention to be paid to the characteristics of the data to provide a correct reading. In the last two decades, a clear stratification of poverty by age and citizenship, which sees children and migrants at a disadvantage, has arisen alongside the traditional geographical divide. Looking ahead, the measurement assumption of an equal intra-household distribution appears to be less and less acceptable, due to its implications for the estimation of gender inequalities and child poverty.
    Keywords: poverty, social exclusion, relative and absolute thresholds, Italy
    JEL: I32 N34
    Date: 2021–10

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