nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒10‒25
29 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. The First East Asian Economic Miracle: Wages, Living Standards and Foundations of Modern Economic Growth in Southeast Asia, 1880-1938 By Jean-Pascal Bassino; Pierre van der Eng
  2. Coase and the Scottish Political Economy Tradition By Alexander Dow & Sheila Dow
  3. Climate and the economy in India, 1850-2000 By Roy, Tirthankar
  4. Hidden wealth By Cummins, Neil
  5. Local majorities: How administrative divisions shape comparative development By Bluhm, Richard; Hodler, Roland; Schaudt, Paul
  6. The evolution of wages in early modern Normandy (1600–1850) By Cédric Chambru; Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu
  7. Regional Income Distributions in France,1960–2018 By Florian Bonnet; Aurélie Sotura
  8. Biographical By Nordhaus, William
  9. Fanon in the postcolonial Mediterranean: sovereignty and agency in neoliberal Egypt By Salem, Sara
  10. For a Multidimensional Measure of Land Inequality in 1930s Italy. A Historical-Statistical Analysis By Vito Ricci; Giacomo Zanibelli
  11. The Redistributive Effects of Pandemics: Evidence of the Spanish Flu By Basco, Sergi; Domenech, Jordi; Roses, Joan R.
  12. 'Money markets and trade’ defining provincial financial agents in England and Japan By Ishizu, Mina
  13. Fringe Banking and Financialisation: Pawnbroking in pre-famine and famine Ireland By Rowena Pecchenino; Eoin McLaughlin Author-Workplace-University College Cork
  14. Refugees and local power dynamics: The case of the Gambella Region of Ethiopia By Hagos, Samuel Zewdie
  15. Biographical By Milgrom, Paul
  16. Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes By Ethan Ilzetzki; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff
  17. Trade shocks, labour markets and elections in the first globalisation By Bräuer, Richard; Hungerland, Wolf-Fabian; Kersting, Felix
  18. Natural experiments help answer important questions for society By Committee, Nobel Prize
  19. Which side are you on? A historical perspective on union membership composition in four European countries By Cyprien Batut; Ulysse Lojkine; Paolo Santini
  20. The contribution of health behaviors to depression risk across birth cohorts By Maria Gueltzow; Maarten J. Bijlsma; Frank J. van Lenthe; Mikko Myrskylä
  21. Biographical By Wilson, Robert
  22. Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years By Maria Caridad Araujo; Karen Macours
  23. La Régie Nationale des Usines Renault face à la crise (1982-1990) : contribution au processus de désinstitutionalisation By Jean-Christophe Scilien
  24. Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models By Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan; Escribano Sáez, Álvaro
  25. Ouverture et fragmentation : le seigle en Corrèze, 1860-1896 By Stéphane Gauthier
  26. Analyzing “Innovation” in economics By Kakkar, Shrey
  27. The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide By Christian Dudel; Elke Loichinger; Sebastian Klüsener; Harun Sulak; Mikko Myrskylä
  28. Innovation and trade patterns in the Latin American mining sector By Enrico Alessandri
  29. The great Covid cash surge - digitalisation hasn't dented cash's safe haven role By Ashworth, Jonathan; Goodhart, C. A. E.

  1. By: Jean-Pascal Bassino; Pierre van der Eng
    Abstract: This paper presents new estimates of the living standards of unskilled and skilled wage earners in Southeast Asia. It estimates welfare ratios in nine Asian cities (Bangkok, Hanoi, Jakarta, Penang, Rangoon, Saigon, Singapore, Surabaya and Tokyo) during 1880-1938 and compares them to those in two European cities (Milan and Paris). It finds that the welfare ratios in most Southeast Asian cities were close to or above the Italian and Japanese levels. By the 1930s those in Bangkok were even close to Paris. It also finds a wage premium for skilled labour that was higher than in Europe and Japan. These findings suggest that there was a sustained strong demand for skilled workers, as well as savings potentials and opportunities for the development of markets beyond basic commodities in these Asian cities. These findings are consistent with recent research into economic growth and living standards in pre-war East Asia. The paper synthesises these findings to argue that some of the foundations of modern economic growth, and therefore the second East Asian Economic Miracle since the mid-1960s, were being established before World War II. But it took most countries in Southeast Asia until the 1960s and after to draw the full benefits from these preconditions when their processes of modern economic growth accelerated.
    Keywords: East Asian Economic Miracle, welfare, wages, Southeast Asia
    JEL: I31 J30 N35
    Date: 2021–10
  2. By: Alexander Dow & Sheila Dow (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)
    Abstract: Coase’s work took a different approach to that of standard economics and he made a series of reflections over the years setting out his methodological views. He first employed this approach in his path-breaking paper on ‘The Nature of the Firm’, which was drafted while in his first academic post, at the Dundee School of Economics and Commerce. The distinctive Scottish political economy approach still dominated economics in Scotland at the time, although the Dundee School stood apart from it. The purpose of this paper is to consider how far Coase was influenced by being in Dundee, and in particular by the Scottish political economy tradition. We find little evidence of influence from the Scottish tradition while Coase was at Dundee. Nevertheless we identify many features of Coase’s methodology which accord with the Scottish tradition. In particular we draw out the similarities with Adam Smith’s approach, which Coase had encountered before coming to Dundee. We conclude that there was a missed connection with the Scottish tradition as it had continued in Scotland into the twentieth century.
    Keywords: Ronald Coase, Scottish political economy, economic methodology, law and economics
    Date: 2021–10–09
  3. By: Roy, Tirthankar
    Abstract: This article says that climate shaped the long-term pattern of economic change in India and that the climatically conditioned economic change generated a distinct set of environmental consequences in the region. From the nineteenth century, political and economic processes that made scarce and controlled water resources more accessible to more people, enhanced welfare, enabled more food production and sustained urbanization. The same processes also raised water stress. These propositions carry lessons for comparative economic history and the conduct of discourses on sustainability in the present times.
    Keywords: caste; climate; environmental history; hydrology; India; inequality; monsoon; poverty; property rights; seasonality; South Asia
    JEL: N50 N55 O13 P48 Q00
    Date: 2019–11
  4. By: Cummins, Neil
    Abstract: Sharp declines in wealth-concentration occurred across Europe and the US during the 20th century. But this stylized fact is based on declared wealth. It is possible that today the richest are not less rich but rather that they are hiding much of their wealth. This paper proposes a method to measure this hidden wealth, in any form. In England, 1920-1992, elites are concealing 20-32% of their wealth. Among dynasties, hidden wealth, independent of declared wealth, predicts appearance in the Offshore Leaks Database of 2013-6, house values in 1999, and Oxbridge attendance, 1990-2016. Accounting for hidden wealth eliminates one-third of the observed decline of top 10% wealth-share over the past century
    Keywords: hidden wealth; inequality; economic history; big data; tax evasion
    JEL: N00 N33 N34 D31 H26
    Date: 2019–12
  5. By: Bluhm, Richard; Hodler, Roland; Schaudt, Paul
    Abstract: We study the role of subnational borders and the importance of local majorities for local economic development. We exploit that France imposed a particular administrative structure on its Sub-Saharan African possessions in the early 20th century. The French government had little interest in pre-colonial political units. As a result, their colonial districts cut across ethnic homelands in a way that led to plausibly exogenous variation in an ethnic group's population share across colonial districts. We find that ethnic groups who were a local majority in most colonial districts, in which they were present, are more economically developed today. Furthermore, we show that the parts of ethnic homelands with a higher district-level population share are more economically developed today than other parts of the same homeland. We also provide evidence that the effects are persistent for various reasons, including the stickiness of subnational borders and higher infrastructure investments during colonial times.
    Keywords: Ethnic politics, local majorities, administrative-territorial structures, colonization, regional development, persistence
    JEL: D72 F54 H54 H75 N97 O10 R12 R50 Z13
    Date: 2021–10
  6. By: Cédric Chambru; Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu
    Abstract: This paper presents new estimations of wages for Normandy between 1600 and 1850. We used a vast array of primary and secondary sources to assemble two new databases on wages and commodity prices to establish a new regional consumer price index (CPI) and twelve regional wage series. We posit that the sluggish demographic growth during the 18th century, and the resulting labour shortage, led to a convergence of wages across unskilled occupations and a relative catch-up with urban skilled construction labourers in the years preceding the French Revolution. We also provide tentative evidence suggesting that labourers in stable employment could have earned as much as their English counterparts during this period.
    Keywords: Prices, wages, casual employment, stable employment, Normandy
    JEL: J3 J4 I31 N33
    Date: 2021–10
  7. By: Florian Bonnet; Aurélie Sotura
    Abstract: This paper proposes homogeneous annual series on the income distribution of French metropolitan départements for the period 1960-69 and 1986-2018. We rely on unpublished and newly digitised archives of the French Ministry of Finance. They consist of fiscal tabulations that are a summary of households’ income tax declarations. Based on these raw sources, we interpolate the whole income distribution of French metropolitan départements after 1986. Before 1986, we need more assumptions as only households liable to French income tax filed income tax declarations at that time. We propose a methodology to estimate the number and average income of non-taxable households before 1986 that also allows us to reconstruct the income distribution of French metropolitan départements for the period 1960-69.
    Keywords: Intraregional Inequalities, Income Distribution, Economic Geography, Economic History
    JEL: D30 N34 N94 R12
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Nordhaus, William (Yale University)
    Abstract: I first saw light in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, at the dawn of World War II. My earliest memories are of the warm climate, skiing in winter, trout fishing in summer, and a fragrant alfalfa field outside my window.
    Keywords: long-term growth; climate change;
    JEL: O00
    Date: 2021–10–10
  9. By: Salem, Sara
    Abstract: In this essay I revisit Fanon’s theory on the emergence of a postcolonial elite in the Global South, and suggest that his argument around the dynamics of imperial transformation following the end of formal colonial rule can shed light on the postcolonial era, in particular the period of neoliberalization that began in the 1970s to which foreign capital such as European Union (EU) capital has been central. I use the concept of amnesia to highlight some of these changes, focusing on two forms: the amnesia of radical critique and the amnesia of empire, arguing that they allow for questions of economic dependency, sovereignty, agency and resistance to come to the fore, highlighting both change and continuity. In particular, Fanon’s work allows for an exploration of both forms of amnesia, through his emphasis on a dependent bourgeoisie as well as the ways in which global political economic structures condition postcolonial agency.
    Keywords: decolonization; Egypt; Fanon; neoliberalism; postcolonialism
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–04–20
  10. By: Vito Ricci (Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Italy); Giacomo Zanibelli (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Napoli Federico II, Italy)
    Abstract: In this study, land inequality in Italy during fascism was observed and reconstructed in order to offer new elements of analysis related to the study of inequality in the Italian countryside during the first half of the twentieth century. Using provincial data of the 1930Agricultural Census, five indicators of land inequality were constructed. Initially, a univariate analysis was carried out, taking the indicators individually; subsequently, using a multivariate approach, three synthetic indicators were produced. Finally, the provinces were divided into homogeneous clusters based on the concentration of land ownership. A notable useful tool for analysis was mapping using GIS software.
    Keywords: Land Inequality, Fascism, Italy, Agriculture
    JEL: N53 O13 O44 Q15
    Date: 2021–10
  11. By: Basco, Sergi; Domenech, Jordi; Roses, Joan R.
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variation in “excess deaths” and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related “excess deaths” on real wages is large, negative, and short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from null to a 15 per cent decline,concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases in mortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.
    Keywords: pandemics; Spanish flu; real wages; returns to capital
    JEL: E32 I00 N10 N30
    Date: 2020–05
  12. By: Ishizu, Mina
    Abstract: The paper aims to offer an introduction to provincial financial agents as the key components in provincial-metropolitan integration of money markets. It establishes that PFAs engaged in de facto banking and played an important role in local money markets. Both in England and in Tokugawa Japan, they were responsible for making decisions whether or not to establish a connection with financial agents in the commercial centres. The paper also considers some of the financial services facilitated by the existence of financial connections between metropolitan and provincial financial agents. In both countries, remittances and (particularly in England) investment were important financial activities facilitated by such connections, while bill-rediscounting appears to have been relevant only in the English case. On the other hand, in Japan domain-related business activity forged financial links with the commercial centres, links in which provincial financial agents played a major role. Also the expansion of inter-domainal private trade may have further stimulated the inter-regional financial linkages in the late Tokugawa period.
    Keywords: financial agents; provincial towns; inter-regional financial linkages;; early industrialisation
    JEL: N20 N23 N25
    Date: 2020–01
  13. By: Rowena Pecchenino (Department of Economics, Maynooth University.); Eoin McLaughlin Author-Workplace-University College Cork
    Abstract: Pawnbroking, one of the oldest and most accessible forms of credit, was a common feature of life in pre-famine and famine Ireland. This paper studies the role of pawnbroking in the Irish financial system during this important period, applying insights from modern studies on fringe banking to analyse pawnbroking in Ireland. In the period under study, a formal tiered financial system existed; regulated joint stock banks offered services to industry and the better off, while fringe banks provided financial services largely, but not exclusively, to unbanked groups. The main findings are that pawnbrokers provided a steady source of credit throughout the island of Ireland and that this credit stream was more durable than that provided by alternative financial service providers in the fringe banking market, especially during the famine. Our findings suggest a nuanced interpretation is needed as we find strong interrelationships between the various financial service providers. Classification-G21, G51, N23
    Keywords: Fringe banking, financialisation, pawnbroking, Ireland
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Hagos, Samuel Zewdie
    Abstract: The Gambella Region is one of the marginalised and most conflict-ridden regions in Ethiopia. Recently, violent clashes between the two largest ethnic groups in the region - the host communities, the Anywaa, and the South Sudanese Nuer refugees - have reignited the debate on refugee integration in the region. In fact, the roots of the Anywaa-Nuer conflict can be traced back to the imperial regime of Ethiopia at the end of the 19th century. In the early 1960s however, the arrival and spontaneous integration of Nuer refugees was peaceful and relations between both ethnic groups were harmonious. During this time, refugee management was organised locally. Against this background, the focus of the present paper is to understand the nature, context and evolution of the long-standing conflict between the Anywaa and refugees from the Nuer ethnic group in the Gambella Region. Beyond that, the paper explores the Anywaa-Nuer conflict within the context of the political power dynamics of the last two decades. Thereby, the paper reveals that the disputes between the Anywaa and the Nuer have taken on a new dimension since the early 1990s.
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Milgrom, Paul (Stanford University)
    Abstract: I was born in Detroit, Michigan to Abraham Isaac Milgrom and Anne Lillian Milgrom nee Finkelstein. Abraham Milgrom was born in Canada to Polish-Jewish immigrants, and Anne Finkelstein in Detroit, Michigan, to Ukrainian-Jewish immigrants. I am the second of the Milgroms’ four sons; Stuart is my older brother and Barry and Steven my younger twin brothers. We grew up in Oak Park – a suburb of Detroit – where I attended the John Dewey School followed by Oak Park High School, from which I graduated in 1966.
    Keywords: Auctions
    JEL: D44
    Date: 2021–10–11
  16. By: Ethan Ilzetzki; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff
    Abstract: This paper employs an updated algorithm and database for classifying exchange rate and anchor currency choice, to explore the evolution of the global exchange rate system, including parallel rates, capital controls and reserves. In line with a large recent literature, we find that the dollar has become ever-more central as the de facto anchor or reference currencies for much of the world. Our discussion encompasses the history of anchor currency choice, methods for classifying exchange rate regimes, a detailed discussion of the evolution of regimes, the growing substitution of reserves for capital controls as a tool for exchange rate stabilization, the modern Triffin dilemma, and the surprising recent trend decline in volatility of exchange rates at the core of the system. It concludes with issues surrounding the rise of China.
    JEL: E5 F3 F4 N2
    Date: 2021–10
  17. By: Bräuer, Richard; Hungerland, Wolf-Fabian; Kersting, Felix
    Abstract: This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture - the grain invasion from the Americas - in Prussia during the first globalisation (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today's data, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation in counties affected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
    Keywords: agriculture,elections,Germany,globalisation,import competition,labour market,migration,Prussia,trade shock
    JEL: F14 F16 F66 F68 N13 R12
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Committee, Nobel Prize (Nobel Prize Committee)
    Abstract: This year’s Laureates – David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens – have provided us with new insights about the labour market and shown what conclusions about cause and effect can be drawn from natural experiments. Their approach has spread to other fields and revolutionised empirical research.
    Keywords: Labor markets; natural experiments
    JEL: J00
    Date: 2021–10–11
  19. By: Cyprien Batut (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, DGTPE - Direction Générale du Trésor et de la Politique Economique - Ministère de l'Economie, des Finances et de l'Industrie); Ulysse Lojkine (UPN - Université Paris Nanterre, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Paolo Santini (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In this paper, we look at the long term evolution of the composition of union membershipin the four largest European countries: France, West Germany, Italy, and the United King-dom. Using unexploited micro data coming from post electoral, labor, and household surveys,we first revisit commonly accepted unionization levels from the past 60 years. We find that,for France and Italy, union density was at time under- and over- estimated respectively. Sec-ond, we present long run evidence on the evolution of the composition of unions in terms ofthe socio-economic characteristics (occupation, length of education, public or private sector,gender) of their members. Two types of unionisation emerge from this analysis. In Franceand Italy, the composition of unions has been primarily determined by structural changesin the composition of the workforce with no notable changes in the selection of the differentgroups into unions when aggregate density varied. In the UK and West Germany, instead,selection into unions has changed dramatically: Blue collars and less educated worker wereover-represented in the '60s, but this has declined over time. We argue that these two typesof unionization are related to the institutional characteristics of each country and show thatthe evolution of selection into union is linked to the public-sectorization of unions: as uniondensity fall, the share of public workers in unions increases.
    Date: 2021–09
  20. By: Maria Gueltzow (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Maarten J. Bijlsma (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Frank J. van Lenthe; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Background: More recent birth cohorts are at a higher depression risk than cohorts born in the early twentieth century. We aimed to investigate to what extent changes in alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity and obesity, contribute to these birth cohort variations. Methods: We analyzed panel data from US adults born 1916-1966 enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (N=163,760 person-years). We performed a counterfactual decomposition analysis by combining age-period-cohort models with g-computation. This allowed us to compare the predicted probability of elevated depressive symptoms (CES-D 8 score ≥3) in the natural course to a counterfactual scenario where all birth cohorts had the health behavior of the 1945 birth cohort. We stratified analyses by sex and race/ethnicity. Results: Depression risk of the 1916-1949 and 1950-1966 birth cohort would be on average 2% (-2.3 to -1.7) and 0.5% (-0.9 to -0.1) higher had they had the alcohol consumption levels of the 1945 cohort. In the counterfactual with the 1945 BMI distribution, depression risk is on average 2.1% (1.8 to 2.4) higher for the 1916-1940 cohorts and 1.8% (-2.2 to -1.5) lower for the 1950-1966 cohorts. We find no cohort variations in depression risk for smoking and physical activity. The contribution of alcohol is more pronounced for Whites than for other race/ethnicity groups, and the contribution of BMI more pronounced for women than for men. Conclusion: Increased obesity levels exacerbated depression risk in recent birth cohorts in the US, while drinking patterns only played a minor role.
    Keywords: USA, behavior, cohort analysis, mental health
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Wilson, Robert (Stanford Univeristy)
    Abstract: After rocky early years, I had a happy youth in a small town, and then stumbled through eight years at Harvard, emerging with little sense of what to do next, until I moved to Stanford where my research thrived. A minor project on adverse selection in auctions led me to join in the nascent reconstruction of economic theory using game-theoretic models, and then later, foundational topics in game theory, all focused on the role of agents’ information and their effect on incentives. I’ve enjoyed working with PhD students and been fortunate to have superb co-authors with better skills.
    Keywords: Auctions
    JEL: D44
    Date: 2021–10–11
  22. By: Maria Caridad Araujo (Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank); Karen Macours (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In 1997, the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. A large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresa's experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa. We focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the first years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the early childhood cohort, 18–20- year-old at endline, shows that differential exposure to Progresa during the early years led to positive impacts on educational attainment and labor income expectations. This constitutes unique long-term evidence on the returns of an at-scale intervention on investments in human capital during the first 1000 days of life. Results for the school cohort - in their early 30s at endline - show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling were sustained in the long-run and manifested themselves in larger labor incomes, more geographical mobility including through international migration, and later family formation.
    Date: 2021–10
  23. By: Jean-Christophe Scilien (CEROS - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur les Organisations et la Stratégie - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)
    Abstract: Cette communication analyse le processus de désinstitutionalisation sociale de la Régie Renault, au travers des neuf années s'étendant de l'arrivée en fonction de Bernard Hanon à la présidence de la Régie (25 décembre 1981), jusqu'à l'annonce de la fermeture de son usine mère historique (novembre 1989), et la dénationalisation de la Régie (juillet 1990). Cette recherche exploratoire est basée sur l'exploitation de cinq sources archivistiques : celles de la Société d'Histoire du Groupe Renault (SHGR), fonds de l'Institut National de l'Audiovisuel (Ina), archives de Renault (Conseil d'administration), archives de presse du journal Le Monde (AJLM) et celles du Ministère de l'industrie (rapports de l'Assemblée nationale, Sénat). La confrontation de ces archives nous a permis de mieux repérer les actions, les intentions et les perceptions de trois présidents successifs de la Régie (Messieurs Hanon, Besse, Lévy) ; ainsi que le rôle évolutif joué par l'Etat actionnaire (au travers du premier ministre et/ou du ministre de tutelle), tout au long d'un processus qui a conduit à l'émergence d'une nouvelle institution, axée sur la dimension financière.
    Keywords: institution,institutionnalisation,crise,régie,Renault,gestion du résultat
    Date: 2021–06–17
  24. By: Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan; Escribano Sáez, Álvaro
    Abstract: ScScore-driven models applied to finance and economics have attracted significant attention in the last decade. In this paper, we apply those models to climate data. We study the robustness of a recent climate econometric model, named ice-age model, and we extend that model by using score-driven filters in the measurement and transition equations. The climate variables considered are Antarctic ice volume Icet, atmospheric carbon dioxide level CO2,t, and land surface temperature Tempt, which during the history of the Earth were driven by exogenous variables. The influence of humanity on climate started approximately 10-15 thousand years ago, and it has significantly increased since then. We forecast the climate variables for the last 100 thousand years, by using data for the period of 798 thousand years ago to 101 thousand years ago for which humanity did not influence the Earth’s climate. For the last 10-15 thousand years of the forecasting period, we find that: (i) the forecasts of Icet are above the observed Icet, (ii) the forecasts of the CO2,t level are below the observed CO2,t, and (iii) the forecasts of Tempt are below the observed Tempt. Our results are robust, and they disentangle the effects of humanity and orbital variables.
    Keywords: Climate Change; Dynamic Conditional Score Models; Generalized Autoregressive Score Models; Ice-Ages and Inter-Glacial Periods; Atmospheric Co2 and Land Surface Temperature
    Date: 2021–10–14
  25. By: Stéphane Gauthier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Ce texte s'intéresse aux marchés du seigle de la Corrèze en s'appuyant sur les mercuriales du département depuis le traité de libre-échange de 1860 jusqu'à la fin de la Grande Dépression Agricole en 1896. De 1860 à 1882, tous les marchés locaux sont intégrés et restent isolés des échanges commerciaux internationaux. Ils se retrouvent ex- posés à partir de 1883 et se fragmentent : Brive et Tulle s'ancrent sur les grandes bourses internationales et se détachent d'Ussel.
    Keywords: Mercuriales,Corrèze,Seigle,Fragmentation,Première Mondialisation,Grande Dépression Agricole
    Date: 2021–09
  26. By: Kakkar, Shrey
    Abstract: This article discusses existing theories on “Innovation” since the 1940s. It differentiates between “Innovation” and “Invention”, and presents examples of innovation that are modelled by theory.
    Keywords: Innovation, Invention
    JEL: B20 B25 O31
    Date: 2021–07–31
  27. By: Christian Dudel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Elke Loichinger (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Harun Sulak; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Enrico Alessandri (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo - Green-University L.Bocconi, Milan)
    Abstract: This paper examines the trade and innovation specialization patterns in the Latin American mining sector, in terms of exports of mining products, of its exports of mining equipment, and of its production of mining technologies (i.e. innovation). Results suggest that Latin American countries are specialised in the extraction and export of mining products (i.e. minerals), and de-specialised in the production of mining equipment and of mining technology, while they heavily rely on imports of equipment and technology. We also find that the mining innovation taking place in Latin America is of relatively low quality. Considering that innovation in the mining sector is supplier-dominated, the weak technological specialisation of Latin American countries in the mining sector reflects mainly the low innovation capacity of local suppliers to mining companies, in comparison to the global average.
    Keywords: Mining innovation; Mining production; Specialization patterns; Patent quality indicators; Local METS (suppliers); Patents; Trade data; Inward FDI; Latin America
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Ashworth, Jonathan; Goodhart, C. A. E.
    Abstract: There is a debate about the effect of the extremely low, or even negative, interest rate regime on bank profitability. On the one hand it raises demand and thereby adds to bank profits, while on the other hand it lowers net interest margins, especially at the Zero Lower Bound. In this paper we review whether the prior paper by Altavilla, Boucinha and Peydro (2018) on this question for the Eurozone can be generalized to other monetary blocs, i.e. USA and UK. While our findings have some similarity with their earlier work, we are more concerned about the possible negative effects of this regime, not only on bank profitability but also on bank credit extension more widely.
    Keywords: cash; banknote issue and withdrawal; Covid-19; panic response; coronavirus
    JEL: E40 E41 E49 N10 N20
    Date: 2021–10–07

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