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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2021‒07‒12
forty-nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Flores Zendejas, Juan; Nodari, Gianandrea |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the role of central banks during the first years of the Great Depression. The literature has focused on central banks' loss of autonomy and on the implementation of innovative, countercyclical monetary policies which fostered economic recovery but also led to higher rates of inflation and exchange rate volatility. However, we show that these kinds of policies had been foreseen by foreign advisors before and during the crisis. Policymakers had been reluctant to implement them due to the fear of a loss of credibility for the gold standard regime. Furthermore, we show that in most cases this shift was short-lived and central banks could avert, to a large extent, the problem of fiscal dominance. Central banks became effective actors, channeling credit to the real economy and also supporting the emergence of state institutions that would promote the development of local industry. |
| Keywords: | Central banking, Great Depression, Gold standard, Money doctors, Financial crises |
| JEL: | N0 N26 N16 F38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:152742&r= |
| By: | Flores Zendejas, Juan; Norbert, Gaillard |
| Abstract: | This chapter provides a historical overview of the efforts for international cooperation in pursuit of financial stability. We argue that there are two fundamental threats likely to undermine the actions of an international lender of last resort (ILOLR): debtor moral hazard and creditor moral hazard. During the Pax Britannica years, the Bank of England and the Bank of France were de facto ILOLR and managed to contain both types of moral hazard. In the interwar years, the League of Nations developed new forms of last-resort loans but failed to prevent the Great Depression because of the lack of cooperation between top capital-exporting countries. Since its establishment in 1944, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has granted various credit facilities conditioned on the recipient countries accepting macroeconomic stabilization. The financial globalization process that started in the 1980s has exacerbated creditor moral hazard. This issue, largely overlooked by the IMF, should be a major source of concern for policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Moral hazard, Lender of last resort, Financial crises |
| JEL: | B26 F33 F34 F53 N20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:152743&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Brisset (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG, CNRS); Benoît Walraevens (Université de Caen-Normandie, France; CREM, CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This article reviews Thomas Piketty's latest book, Capital and Ideology (2020). We begin by placing the work in the context of the thesis developed by the author in his previous works, before pointing out a number of limitations. We first question Piketty's way of thinking about capitalism, before discussing his theory of ideology. Finally, we will try to define the scope and limits of Piketty's vision of overcoming capitalism, that is, his vision of a just society, a "participatory socialism", as it is presented in the last chapter of the book. |
| Keywords: | Thomas Piketty, Capitalism, Property, Ideology, Social Justice |
| JEL: | B4 B51 D63 N01 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-28&r= |
| By: | Paidipaty, Poornima; Ramos Pinto, Pedro |
| Keywords: | Wiley deal |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110941&r= |
| By: | Mathias Hoffmann; Toshihiro Okubo |
| Abstract: | We exploit the natural experiment of Japan’s opening to international trade to examine how comparative advantage can shape a country’s long-run path towards financial development. In the late 19th century, many of Japan’s prefectures had a natural comparative advantage in silk reeling. Producing silk for export required access to finance. At the same time, for technological reasons, borrower-quality in the silk reeling industry was notoriously hard to assess. Silk exporters overcame these frictions by forming local cooperative banks. We show that in the ancient silk prefectures, local cooperative banks continued to dominate local banking markets for over a century while bigger, country-wide banks came to dominate in other regions. By the late 20th century, the silk prefectures are indistinguishable from other regions in terms of their general level of financial development. However, our results suggest that they were effectively less financially integrated with the rest of the country. Hence, comparative advantage in silk favored the emergence of a banking-system dominated by small relationship lenders. But due to the local nature of these lenders, it also caused long-term geographical segmentation in banking markets. |
| Keywords: | Comparative advantage, financial development, financial integration, Japan, banking history, trade credit, export finance, silk industry, relationship lending |
| JEL: | F15 F30 F40 G01 N15 N25 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:387&r= |
| By: | Gazeley, Ian; Newell, Andrew; Reynolds, Kevin; Rufrancos, Hector |
| Abstract: | This article re-examines energy and nutrition available to British working-class households in the late 1930s using individual household expenditure and consumption data. We use these data to address a number of questions. First, what was the extent of malnutrition in late 1930s Britain? Second, how did the incidence change over time? Third, what were the nutritional consequences of the school meals and school milk schemes? We conclude that, for working households, energy and nutritional availability improved significantly compared with current estimates of availability before the First World War. These improvements were not equally shared, however. In the late 1930s, homes with an unemployed head of household had diets that provided around 20 per cent less energy than their working counterparts and female-headed households had diets that provided around 10 per cent fewer kcal per capita than the average male-headed household. The availability of most macro- and micronutrients showed similar relative reductions. State interventions designed to improve diet and nutrition, such as school meals and school milk, made children's diets significantly healthier, even if they did not eliminate macro- and micronutrient deficiencies completely. Not surprisingly, they made the greatest difference to children in households where the head of household was unemployed. |
| Keywords: | RES-062-23-2054; ES/L002523/1; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110895&r= |
| By: | Gardner, Leigh |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the South African objects in the National Numismatic Collection of the Smithsonian to tell a new material history of money in South Africa. In other parts of the continent, research about the currencies in use and how these changed over time have offered a new perspective on the impact of colonialism, commercialization, and the rise of state capacity. South Africa, and southern Africa more generally, has remained on the periphery of these debates. This paper begins to fill this gap. It shows that even in Africa’s most financially developed region, the process of establishing a stable national currency was long and halting, reflecting struggles over South Africa’s relationship with the global economy and the rise and fall of apartheid. |
| Keywords: | South Africa; money; banking; state capacity; REF Impact Fund; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | N47 N17 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110367&r= |
| By: | Jérôme Gautié (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2019–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03242222&r= |
| By: | Morgan Kelly |
| Abstract: | Squicciarini (AER, 2020) finds that the parts of France with the most refractory clergy during the Revolution had the lowest industrial employment in 1901, and concludes that Catholicism retarded development. However, because the richest regions were the ones that industrialized, whereas the poorest ones were the most devout, the relationship may be confounded by living standards. If we add a range of simple controls for living standards the claimed result immediately disappears, as it does if alternative measures of religiosity are employed. Regarding education, I find that Catholic schools were established in areas that historically had the fewest public schools and the lowest enrolment of girls relative to boys. Instead of simply indoctrinating children, religious orders appear to have provided a basic education in impoverished places where it was otherwise unavailable, for girls especially. |
| Keywords: | Primary education; Catholicism; Employment; French Revolution; 19th century Franch; Research methodologies |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202115&r= |
| By: | Pinzur, David |
| Abstract: | In contrast to work showing exogenous social influences on the production of economic ideas, this article asks how a market’s own infrastructure can endogenously shape practitioners’ economic perspectives. It investigates this question by comparing the evolution of opposed views on speculation across two 19th-century American futures markets. The analysis locates the origins of this divergence in features of the grading, receipting and contracting processes that linked these new derivative markets to underlying agricultural markets. This connective infrastructure both made possible new speculative practices and established market ontologies from which traders theorized the economic significance of those practices. These ontologies served as distinct cores around which incompatible constellations of ideas – including beliefs about price relations between spot and futures markets, the character of the global market and the motives and capabilities of speculators – were elaborated. |
| Keywords: | derivatives; infrastructure; market ontology; markets; sociology of knowledge; Sage deal |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110932&r= |
| By: | David Chilosi (King's College London); Stefan Nikolić (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | This article exploits the creation of a paradigmatic multi-ethnic state, Yugoslavia, to examine if, to what extent, and why the effect of ethnic ties on trade costs changes over time. We compile and examine a panel of over 550,000 inter-urban price gaps spanning the area of Yugoslavia in the decades before and after the Yugoslav unification of 1918. Controlling for observable trade costs, we find that crossing the border between Serbia and Austria-Hungary significantly increased price gaps before the First World War. Ethno-religious differences explained a large share of this border effect in pre-unification Yugoslavia, but their influence vanished over time. This decline began about twelve years before the unification, and is visible both in city-pairs that were separated by the pre-war border and in those that were not. These patterns suggest that nation-building, rather than a weakening incentive to rely on private order institutions, was the main unifying factor. |
| Keywords: | border effect, ethnicity, market integration, nation-building, trade costs |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F52 N7 N9 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0214&r= |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda |
| Abstract: | Estimated labor force participation rates among free women in the pre-Civil War period were exceedingly low. This is due, in part, to cultural or societal expectations of the role of women and the lack of thorough enumeration by Census takers. This paper develops an augmented labor force participation rate for free women in 1860 and compares it with the augmented rate for 1920 and today. Our methodology identifies women who are likely providing informal and unenumerated labor for market production in support of a family business, that is, unreported family workers. These individuals are not coded in the original data as formally working, but are likely to be engaged in the labor force on the basis of the self-employment of other relatives in their household. Unreported family workers are classified into four categories: farm, merchant, craft, and boardinghouse keepers. Using microdata, the inclusion of these workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census from 16 percent to 57 percent, more than doubles the participation rate in the 1920 Census from 24 percent to 50 percent, and has a trivial effect on the currently measured rate of 56 percent (2015-2019 American Community Survey). This suggests that rather than a steep rise from a very low level in the female labor force participation rate since 1860, it has in fact always been high and fairly stable over time. In contrast, the effect of including unreported family workers in the male augmented labor force participation rate is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | Women,Labor Force Participation,Unreported Family Workers,Occupational Status,Unpaid Workers,Self-Employment,1860 Census,1920 Census,American Community Survey |
| JEL: | N31 J16 J21 J82 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:587r&r= |
| By: | Castaneda Dower, Paul (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Gokmen, Gunes (Department of Economics, Lund University); Le Breton, Michel (Toulouse School of Economics); Weber, Shlomo (New Economic School, Moscow) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the lasting impact of the alignment of African countries during the Cold War on their modern economic development. We find that the division of the continent into two blocs (East/West) led to two clusters of development outcomes that reflect the Cold War’s ideological divide. To determine alignment, we introduce a non-cooperative game of social interactions where each country chooses one of the two existing blocs based on its predetermined bilateral similarities with other members of the bloc. We show the existence of a strong Nash equilibrium in our game and apply the celebrated MaxCut method to identify such a partition. The alignment predicts UN General Assembly voting patterns during the Cold War but not after. Our approach, linking global political interdependence to distinct development paths in Africa, relies on history to extract a micro-founded treatment assignment, while allowing for an endogenous, process-oriented view of historical events. |
| Keywords: | Cold War; Political Alliances; Africa; Blocs; Development Clusters; Strong Nash Equilibrium; Landscape Theory |
| JEL: | C62 C72 F54 F55 N47 N47 O19 O57 Y10 |
| Date: | 2021–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2021_010&r= |
| By: | Andrea Forero; Francisco Gallego; Felipe González; Matías Tapia |
| Abstract: | We explore how railroads affected population growth during the First Globalization (1865-1920) in Chile. We look at areas with strong comparative advantage in agriculture using novel data documenting sixtyyears of railroad construction. Using instrumental variables, we present four main findings. First, railroads increased both urban and rural population growth. Second, the impact was stronger in areas with more potential for agricultural expansion. Third, railroads increased specialization in agriculture when combined with a high level of the real exchange rate. And fourth, railroads had little effects on human capital and fertility. These results suggest that the effects of transportation technologies depend on existing macroeconomic conditions. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:548&r= |
| By: | Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; Ömer Özak |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity’s historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:551&r= |
| By: | Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Alessandro Sommacal (University of Verona, Department of Economics); Gaia Spolverini (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relation between intergenerational coresidence and mortality from Covid-19 in 2020. Using a crosssection of U.S. counties, we show that this association is positive, significant, and robust to the inclusion of several demographic and socio-economic controls. Furthermore, using historical evidence from pre-pandemic years (1980-2019) and the Spanish influenza (1918), we argue that this positive association is specific to the Covid-19 pandemic only. |
| Keywords: | Family Economics, Spanish influenza, Mortality, Disease, Health Eonomics |
| JEL: | I10 J10 J14 |
| Date: | 2021–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021013&r= |
| By: | Felipe González; María Angélica Bautista,; Luis R. Martínez; Pablo Muñoz; Mounu Prem |
| Abstract: | Hostile policies towards higher education are a prominent feature of authoritarian regimes. We study the capture of higher education by the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in Chile following the 1973 coup. We find three main results: (i) cohorts that reached college age shortly after the coup experienced a large drop in college enrollment as a result of the systematic reduction in the number of openings for incoming students decreed by the regime; (ii) these cohorts had worse economic outcomes throughout the life cycle and struggled to climb up the socioeconomic ladder, especially women; (iii) children with parents in the affected cohorts also have a substantially lower probability of college enrollment. These results demonstrate that the political capture of higher education in non-democracies hinders social mobility and leads to a persistent reduction in human capital accumulation, even after democratization. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:542&r= |
| By: | Konrad Buchardi (Stockholms universitet); Thomas Chaney (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Tarek Hassan (BU - Boston University [Boston]) |
| Abstract: | We use 130 years of data on historical migrations to the United States to show a causal effect of the ancestry composition of US counties on foreign direct investment (FDI) sent and received by local firms. To isolate the causal effect of ancestry on FDI, we build a simple reduced-form model of migrations: Migrations from a foreign country to a US county at a given time depend on (i) a push factor, causing emigration from that foreign country to the entire United States, and (ii) a pull factor, causing immigration from all origins into that US county. The interaction between time-series variation in origin-specific push factors and destination-specific pull factors generates quasi-random variation in the allocation of migrants across US counties. We find that doubling the number of residents with ancestry from a given foreign country relative to the mean increases the probability that at least one local firm engages in FDI with that country by 4 percentage points. We present evidence that this effect is primarily driven by a reduction in information frictions, and not by better contract enforcement, taste similarities, or a convergence in factor endowments. |
| Keywords: | Migrations,Foreign direct investments,International trade,Networks,Social ties |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03260190&r= |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Destek, Mehmet Akif; Dong, Kangyin; Jiao, Zhilun |
| Abstract: | Financial development has been widely proved to be a key driver of economic growth; however, its environmental impact is still inconclusive, especially for G-7 countries (i.e. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United State (US)). This paper, therefore, investigates the time-varying impact of financial development on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for G-7 countries over a long historical period. The study analyzes historical data from 1870 to 2014 for each country using bootstrap time-varying co-integration (TVC) and bootstrap rolling window estimation approaches. In addition, the polynomial trends of the estimated parameters are obtained to observe the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions. The empirical findings reveal that the impact of financial development on CO2 emissions over a long history is M-shaped in Canada, Japan, and the US; inverted N-shaped in France, Italy, and the UK; and inverted M-shaped (W-shaped) in Germany. This empirical evidence opens new directions for policy makers to design comprehensive economic policy for using the financial sector as an economic tool to keep environmental quality at sustainable levels. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; CO2 Emissions; Non-linear Analysis; Time-varying Co-integration (TVC); G-7 |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108375&r= |
| By: | Huang, Kaixing |
| Abstract: | Developing countries sharing nearly identical growth trends for centuries dramatically diverged in terms of income per capita over the last half-century. Using data from 78 developing countries, this study shows that the Green Revolution (GR) since the 1960s can explain most of the income divergence. Beyond the understanding that agriculture growth promotes economic growth, the study shows that developing countries less suitable for cultivating GR crops were substantially damaged by GR-induced grain imports, which increased fertility and retarded human and physical capital formation. A counterfactual analysis removing GR’s effect showed parallel growth trends similar to that prior to the GR. |
| Keywords: | The Green Revolution, international trade, income divergence |
| JEL: | E0 Q1 |
| Date: | 2020–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108357&r= |
| By: | Card, David (University of California, Berkeley); DellaVigna, Stefano (University of California, Berkeley); Funk, Patricia (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Iriberri, Nagore (University of the Basque Country) |
| Abstract: | We study the selection of Fellows of the Econometric Society, using a new data set of publications and citations for over 40,000 actively publishing economists since the early 1900s. Conditional on achievement, we document a large negative gap in the probability that women were selected as Fellows in the 1933-1979 period. This gap became positive (though not statistically significant) from 1980 to 2010, and in the past decade has become large and highly significant, with over a 100% increase in the probability of selection for female authors relative to males with similar publications and citations. The positive boost affects highly qualified female candidates (in the top 10% of authors) with no effect for the bottom 90%. Using nomination data for the past 30 years, we find a key proximate role for the Society's Nominating Committee in this shift. Since 2012 the Committee has had an explicit mandate to nominate highly qualified women, and its nominees enjoy above-average election success (controlling for achievement). Looking beyond gender, we document similar shifts in the premium for geographic diversity: in the mid-2000s, both the Fellows and the Nominating Committee became significantly more likely to nominate and elect candidates from outside the US. Finally, we examine gender gaps in several other major awards for US economists. We show that the gaps in the probability of selection of new fellows of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences closely parallel those of the Econometric Society, with historically negative penalties for women turning to positive premiums in recent years. |
| Keywords: | peer recognition, citations, publication record, econometric society |
| JEL: | J71 I23 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14484&r= |
| By: | Sorgner, Alina (John Cabot University); Wyrwich, Michael (University of Jena) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to test a key aspect of Baumol's theory that the allocation of entrepreneurial efforts toward its productive (e.g., start-up activity) or unproductive (e.g., rent-seeking) use depends on institutional conditions. In contrast to previous research, we study a context where a radical and exogenous institutional change took place that dramatically changed the rewards and opportunities of running a firm. We analyze at the individual level who decides to start a venture in East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall. We find that a significant number of people that demonstrated a strong commitment to the anti-entrepreneurial socialist regime were active in launching new ventures soon after the fall of the Berlin Wall. This pattern cannot be explained by having elite status during the socialist regime. We argue that this commitment to socialism reflects rent-seeking, a type of unproductive entrepreneurship. Once institutions change radically, their entrepreneurial efforts are redirected towards productive entrepreneurship (start-up activity). Regime commitment is captured by information from the 1990 wave of the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP) that includes information on whether East German respondents had a telephone during the socialist era, a typical reward for pronounced efforts for the socialist regime. We find that this group of people were more likely to have an entrepreneurship- prone personality profile, had a higher propensity of becoming selfemployed, and were more successful entrepreneurs. Our results confirm Baumol's theory in a setting that resembles the historical examples Baumol used to make his general argument. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, transition, institutional conditions |
| JEL: | L26 P20 P31 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14458&r= |
| By: | Simon Baumgartinger-Seiringer; David Doloreux; Richard Shearmur; Michaela Trippl |
| Abstract: | This article contributes to the debate on new regional path development, proposing an analytical framework that accounts for new industries arising almost ex nihilo in places with weakly developed preconditions. The paper explores how seemingly adverse initial conditions can be translated into a new development path over time and casts light on the interplay between structure and agency in such settings. We find that new path development processes are not necessarily conditioned by past trajectories or by prior regional and technological capabilities, but can be initiated by forward-looking, entrepreneurial pioneers and consolidated by actors who develop the wider institutional and organizational structures to facilitate further growth of the new industry. We study the case of the wine industry in Southern Quebec, which emerged despite weakly developed preconditions and developed into a fully established, legitimized and supported path over the past forty years. |
| Keywords: | path development, structure, agency, wine industry, Quebec |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwpeg:geo-disc-2021_05&r= |
| By: | Felipe González; Felipe Aldunate; Mounu Prem; Francisco Urzúa |
| Abstract: | Business groups are the predominant organizational structure in modern Chile. This article tests the long-standing hypothesis that the privatization reform implemented by the “Chicago Boys” during the Pinochet regime facilitated the creation of new groups and hence the renovation of the country’s elites. Using new data we find that firms sold during this privatization later became part of new business groups, process aided by an economic crisis that debilitated traditional elites. Moreover, some firms were bought by Pinochet’s allies and were later used as providers of capital within groups. We conclude that privatizations can empower outsiders to replace business elites. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:537&r= |
| By: | Jäger, Simon (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Noy, Shakked (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Schoefer, Benjamin (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive overview of codetermination, i.e., worker representation in firms' governance and management. We cover the institution's history, implementation, and the best available evidence on its economic impacts. We argue that existing quasi-experimental estimates suggest that codetermination has zero or very small positive effects on worker and firm outcomes at the partial-equilibrium firm level. In addition, we test for general-equilibrium effects of codetermination laws using novel cross-country event studies exploiting a series of codetermination reforms between the 1960s and 2010s, and find no evidence that codetermination laws shift aggregate economic outcomes or the quality of industrial relations. We offer three potential explanations of the institution's limited impact. First, existing codetermination laws convey relatively little authority to workers. Second, countries with codetermination laws have high baseline levels of informal worker involvement in decision-making, independently of formal codetermination. Third, codetermination laws may interact with other labor market institutions, such as union representation and collective bargaining. We close by discussing implications of these facts for recent codetermination proposals in the United States. |
| Keywords: | codetermination, unions, worker representation |
| JEL: | J08 K31 M1 M5 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14465&r= |
| By: | Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Jha, Akshaya (Carnegie Mellon University); Lewis, Joshua (University of Montreal); Severnini, Edson R. (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | The passage of landmark government regulation is often the culmination of evolving social pressure and incremental policy change. During this process, firms may preemptively adjust behavior in anticipation of impending regulation, making it difficult to quantify the overall economic impact of the legislation. This study leverages newly digitized data on the operation of virtually every fossil-fuel power plant in the United States from 1938-1994 to examine the economic impacts of the 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) on the power sector. This unique long panel provides us an extended pre-regulation benchmark, allowing us to account for both anticipatory behavior by electric utilities in the years leading up to the Act's passage and reallocative effects of the CAA across plant vintages. We find that the CAA led to large and persistent decreases in output and productivity, but only for plants that opened before 1963. The timing aligns with the passage of the original 1963 CAA, which provided the federal government with the authority to "control" air pollution, sending a strong signal to firms of impending federal regulation. We provide historical evidence of anticipatory responses by utilities in the design and siting of plants that opened after 1963. We also find that the aggregate productivity losses of the CAA borne by the power sector were substantially mitigated by the reallocation of output from older less efficient power plants to newer plants. |
| Keywords: | power plants, electricity generation, total factor productivity, clean air act, air quality regulations, NAAQS |
| JEL: | K32 N52 Q52 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14494&r= |
| By: | Tyler Anbinder; Dylan Connor; Cormac Ó Gráda; Simone Wegge |
| Abstract: | Automated census linkage algorithms have become popular for generating longitudinal data on social mobility, especially for immigrants and their children. But what if these algorithms are particularly bad at tracking immigrants? Using nineteenth-century Irish immigrants as a test case, we examine the most popular of these algorithms—that created by Abramitzky, Boustan, Eriksson (ABE), and their collaborators. Our findings raise serious questions about the quality of automated census links. False positives range from about one-third to one-half of all links depending on the ABE variant used. These bad links lead to sizeable estimation errors when measuring Irish immigrant social mobility. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Census record matching; Social mobility |
| JEL: | N21 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202114&r= |
| By: | Rafael Galvão de Almeida (CEDEPLAR/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Literature on the rhetoric of economics and narrative economics has emphasized the roles of stories and narratives in the development of economic theory. One of the most known narratives in economic folklore is of the “hero entrepreneur”, as an individual who triumphs after a journey of adversity, bringing new products and economic development to a community. The individual focus of entrepreneurs is present in the writings of scholars of entrepreneurship and public intellectuals, such as Joseph Schumpeter, Israel Kirzner, Fritz Redlich, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, among others. Whether they wanted or not, they ended up building a mythology of the entrepreneur that manifested in the popular consciousness. Using literature from comparative mythology and on the popular views of the hero, this article applies the Joseph Campbell’s monomyth model to understand how popular views of the hero penetrated the entrepreneurship discourse, the mythopoeia (confection of a mythology) of the entrepreneur. The article also analyzes the potential problems of this narratives, especially on its legitimation of the status quo, how it does not represent the actual entrepreneurial process, and has potential harmful consequences for both entrepreneurs and the rest of society, using authors such as Roland Barthes, Milton Santos, among others. However, the article concludes that myth, independent of critique or not, will remain ubiquitous and the narrative of the entrepreneur as a hero will remain relevant, therefore future studies should work to humanize the entrepreneur so that cooperation between theory and practice be improved. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, mythology, history of entrepreneurship, heroes, cultural economics, critical theory of entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | B20 B29 Y9 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td633&r= |
| By: | Lefebvre, Mathieu; Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Ponthiere, Gregory (Université catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | Under income-differentiated mortality, poverty measures suffer from a selection bias: they do not count the missing poor (i.e. persons who would have been counted as poor provided they did not die prematurely). The Pre-Industrial period being characterized by an evolutionary advantage (i.e. a higher number of surviving children per household) of the non-poor over the poor, one may expect that the missing poor bias is substantial during that period. This paper aims at estimating the missing poor bias in Pre-Industrial societies, by computing the hypothetical headcount poverty rates that would have prevailed provided the non-poor did not benefit from an evolutionary advantage over the poor. Using data on Pre-Industrial England, we show that the sign and size of the missing poor bias is sensitive to the degree of downward mobility for the non-poor. |
| Keywords: | poverty, measurement, selection effects, missing poor |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2021–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2021007&r= |
| By: | Jacobo Grajales (IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, CERAPS - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Administratives, Politiques et Sociales - UMR 8026 - IEP Lille - Sciences Po Lille - Institut d'études politiques de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article studies the production of economic domination after the end of the Ivorian armed conflict. It investigates the interaction between post-conflict development policies, people's expectations and fears unleashed by the end of war, and the capacity of local actors to establish external alliances. The inquiry focuses on a region located at the margins of the conflict, but at the core of post-war development schemes. In this warless land, policies implemented in the name of peace provide resources for dominant actors seeking to consolidate their position, thus reinforcing the social structures of agrarian capitalism that had been challenged during the war. |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie la production de la domination économique après la fin du conflit armé ivoirien. Il analyse l'interaction entre les politiques de développement et sortie de conflit, les attentes et les craintes déclenchées par la fin de la guerre, et la capacité des acteurs locaux à établir des alliances externes. L'enquête se concentre sur une région située en marge du conflit, mais au cœur des programmes de développement post-conflit. Dans cette terre sans guerre, les politiques mises en œuvre au nom de la paix fournissent des ressources aux acteurs dominants qui cherchent à consolider leur position, renforçant ainsi les structures sociales du capitalisme agraire qui avaient été mises en cause pendant la guerre. |
| Keywords: | Land policies,Formalisation,Côte d’Ivoire,Post-conflict economy,Agrarian capitalism,Politiques foncières,Économie post-conflit,Capitalisme agraire |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02553089&r= |
| By: | Mehdi El Herradi (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Aurélien Leroy (University of Bordeaux, Larefi, bordeaux, France.) |
| Abstract: | How do banking crises a ect rich, middle-class and poor households? This paper quanti es the distributional implications of banking crises for a panel of 140 economies over the 1970-2017 period. We rely on di erent empirical settings, including an instrumental variable approach, that exploit the geographical di usion of banking crises across borders. Our results show that banking crises systematically reduce the income share of rich households and positively a ect middle-class households. We also nd that income inequality increases during periods preceding the triggering of a banking crisis. |
| Keywords: | banking crises, income distribution, Inequality |
| JEL: | G01 D33 D63 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2136&r= |
| By: | Ryusaku Matsuo (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2117&r= |
| By: | Jean Luc De Meulemeester; David Kusman |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we attempt to apply Graeber’s model of “baseline communism” to a medieval financial custom that was widespread in the former Low Countries: the Inliggen custom. This custom implied that a well-off debtor (often a high aristocrat) could send pledges (often his vassals and councillors) in an inn, to remain hostages as long as his creditor was not reimbursed. Inns offered far more than just lodging facilities, and providing food and drinks; they were information hubs, providing the guest with banking services, brokerage facilities and commercial storage, hence, their intimate relationship to medieval bankers such as the Piedmontese moneylenders. Within the institutional framework of the Inliggen custom, the inn was at the centre of a social network linking the creditor, the debtor and his pledges and the hosteller. Bearing close resemblance to the Pilgrimage economy of the late Middle Ages, the sojourn of hostages in an inn as pledges had a positive impact on the urban economy: the pledges were supposed to eat, drink and sleep in a high-standing inn, following the patterns of a conspicuous consumption, the town administration levied fruitful taxes on the wine excises and the pledges could also entertain ties with the local merchants aiming at buying luxury products such as clothes or jewels.All in all, elements of a “baseline communism” surfaced within this extended credit network: the loaned capital often fuelled the urgent needs of a high aristocrat; the practice both relied on the hospitality custom and on the collective solidarity of the pledges for their overlord. Finally, the ambiguous position of the hosteller (host, broker and partner of the Piedmontese moneylenders) shows that the financial custom was a by-product of aggressive profit-seeking strategies for both the lenders and the hostellers. In this sense, and as recognised by Graeber himself, it was no naïve communism but rather a crucial component of the exchanges in a highly commercialised urban society. Ultimately, this custom could be viewed as a primitive contract-enforcement mechanism (CEM). But to prove its efficiency we need to collect a broader sample of quantitative data that is not easily available for the time span of our study. |
| Keywords: | custody for debt; inn economy; financial intermediaries; credit information; baseline communism |
| JEL: | G14 K12 N23 |
| Date: | 2021–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/326675&r= |
| By: | Jongrim Ha (World Bank); M. Ayhan Kose (World Bank; Brookings Institution; CEPR; CAMA); Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank; CEPR; CAMA) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended time period (1970-2021); and (iii) for a large number of (up to 196) countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, our database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. We illustrate the potential use of the database with three applications. First, we study the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, we examine the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, we analyze the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods. |
| Keywords: | Prices, global inflation, deflation, inflation synchronization, global factor. |
| JEL: | E30 E31 F42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2107&r= |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente; Rafael Doménech |
| Abstract: | Utilizando datos de la EPA, en este Documento de Trabajo se extienden hasta 2019 las series anuales del nivel educativo de la población para España y sus regiones elaboradas en de la Fuente y Doménech (2016) para el período 1960-2011. Using data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA), this Working Paper extends through 2019, the annual series of the educational level of the Spanish population and regions produced in de la Fuente and Doménech (2016) for the period 1960-2011. |
| Keywords: | Education level, Nivel educativo, Labour Force Survey, Encuesta de Población Activa, education, educación, Human capital, Capital humano, Educational system, Sistema educativo, Spain, España, Regional Analysis Spain, Análisis Regional España, Working Papers, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2106&r= |
| By: | Hickel, Jason |
| Keywords: | capitalism; decolonization; degrowth |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110918&r= |
| By: | Antonin Aviat; Frédérique Bec; Claude Diebolt; Catherine Doz; Denis Ferrand; Laurent Ferrara; Eric Heyer; Valérie Mignon; Pierre‐Alain Pionnier (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une datation trimestrielle de référence des périodes de récession et d’expansion de l’économie française depuis 1970, réalisée par le comité de datation des cycles de l’AFSE (Association Française de Science Economique). La méthodologie mise en place repose sur deux piliers : (i) des estimations économétriques à partir d’un ensemble de données pour identifier les périodes candidates, et (ii) une approche narrative qui détaille le contexte économique de l’époque pour finaliser notre datation. De 1970 à nos jours, le comité a identifié quatre périodes de récession économique : les deux chocs pétroliers de 1974-75 et 1980, le cycle d’investissement de 1992-93 et la Grande Récession de 2008-09 engendrée par la crise financière mondiale. Le pic précédant la récession Covid a quant à lui été daté au dernier trimestre 2019. |
| Keywords: | Cycles économiques, économie française, datation, analyse narrative, modèles économétriques |
| JEL: | E32 E37 C24 N14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin’s seminal 1967 chapter titled “A growth cycle.” We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite signif-icant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads the labor share in a counter-clockwise cycle in the activity-labor share plane. Subsequently, we summarize and update evidence on the existence of a distributive cycle, with a focus on the post-war US macroeconomy. We analyze activity and labor share series and their interaction in the frequency domain, and also employ stan-dard vector autoregressions. Results confirm the distributive cycle for the US post-war period. We contextualize results vis-`a-vis current debates: (1) we consider a financial cycle, to rebut the theoretical possibility of “pseudo-Goodwin” cycles, (2) demonstrate that a suppressed labor share and stagnation are com-patible with short run Goodwin cycles, and argue that this link presents the way forward for research on secular stagnation. |
| Keywords: | Distributive cycle; US labor share of income; neo-Goodwin. JEL Classification:E12; E24; E25; E32. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Joshua Brault (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Hashmat Khan (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Louis Phaneuf (Department of Economics, Universite du Quebec a Montreal); Jean Gardy Victor |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-shock DSGE model with a Bayesian method that differentiates between states of determinacy and indeterminacy. Determinacy is statistically preferred to indeterminacy before and after 1980. Key to this finding is a Taylor rule wherein the Fed targets output growth relative to trend instead of the level of the output gap or a mix of output gap and output growth. This allows us to revisit postwar macroeconomic fluctuations without indeterminacy. Relative to the pre-1980s, we find that the post-1983 contribution of shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment to the cyclical variance of output growth fell from 50% in the pre-1980s to 20% during the Great Moderation. Greater nominal wage flexibility was a main source of decline in the volatility of output and working hours during the Great Moderation, a finding which appears consistent with the post-1980 large deunionization in the private sector. Lower inflation variability resulted mostly from the Fed’s hawkish stance against inflation and changes in preference parameters. Lower trend inflation and smaller shocks were not major factors driving the Great Moderation. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Determinacy; Bayesian Estimation; Sources of Business Cycle; Changes in Aggregate Volatility |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:21-01&r= |
| By: | Jacobo Grajales (IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, CERAPS - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Administratives, Politiques et Sociales - UMR 8026 - IEP Lille - Sciences Po Lille - Institut d'études politiques de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In many post-war countries, the relative security brought to rural areas is construed by government officials and business actors as an opportunity for development. This is particularly true for marginal areas, where opportunities for economic development had previously been hindered by the threat of violence. This provides a favourable context for the construction of commodity frontiers. Through the case of Colombia, I show that one of the main challenges faced by frontier policy narratives amounts to differentiating wartime dispossession from peacetime legitimate accumulation. This poses intractable challenges to policymakers and business actors, as it fuels the contradictions between peace consolidation and post-war development. |
| Keywords: | Agrarian frontiers,Post-conflict development policies,Policy narratives,Agribusiness,Colombia |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02553099&r= |
| By: | Marie Daumal (UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis) |
| Abstract: | In 2008, the financial system of the United States teetered on the brink of collapse. Major banks failed or would have failed had it not been for financial support from the U.S. government. A vast literature composed of official reports, books, and academic papers cites multiple reasons why it occurred: inappropriate deregulation, weak supervision, excessive risk and leverage, growing inequality, etc. Reviewing the report by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and other research, my purpose is to list and to synthesize the most commonly cited major causes. In a first part, this paper gives a short overview of the economic causes of the U.S. financial crisis. The second part deals with the political causes of the financial crisis. Indeed, since the 1980s, there was a remarkable bipartisan consensus in Washington in favor of deregulation, which, in turn, led to the financial crisis. I provide a few hypotheses and qualitative data to explain this consensus. Ideology, campaign contributions by private firms, lobbying, and the system of revolving doors between Wall Street and Washington might explain the past and current political decisions in favor of deregulation. This paper shows that the financial crisis was partly due to inappropriate deregulation, which might have been the result of flaws in the political system of the United States. |
| Keywords: | Financial Crisis,Campaign Contributions,Lobbying |
| Date: | 2021–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03261070&r= |
| By: | GUISAN, Maria-Carmen |
| Abstract: | El objeto de este artículo es dar visibilidad a investigadoras de Economía de España y varios países de América, tanto en lengua española como en inglés. Destacamos unos porcentajes de presencia femenina crecientes, pasando de sólo un 5% en el período 1970-1980 de la actividad investigadora a porcentajes ya próximos al 30% en el año 2020, en el total de autores registrados en Ideas-Repec. Presentamos una tabla resumen de algunas de los principales rankings y listas de la base Ideas-Repec, y analizamos la información disponible respecto a la representación femenina y a publicaciones destacadas en los países de este estudio. La principal conclusión es que la representación femenina todavía es baja en los rankings de autores más consultados. El disponer de un espacio amplio de comunicación científica en ingles, como es el caso de Estados Unidos, con un nivel bastante elevado de financiación de la investigación es muy importante. Europa no tiene un espacio tan amplio por la diversidad de lenguas y la falta de apoyos institucionales, y en el caso de España e Hispanoamérica hay un espacio lingüístico de comunicación (tanto en español como en inglés) pero en general escaso apoyo a la financiación de la investigación. A pesar de las dificultades son importantes las aportaciones de España y América Latina en el contexto internacional. Destacamos algunas iniciativas como Dialnet, Ideas-Repec, SCOPUS y otras que contribuyen a dar visibilidad y a impulsar el espacio de comunicación científica entre España y América. <p> The purpose of this article is to give visibility to female Economics researchers from Spain and several countries in America. We highlight increasing percentages of female presence, going from less than 5% of researchers in the period 1970-1980 to percentages already close to 30% in year 2020, in the total number of authors registered in Ideas-Repec. We present a summary table of some of the main rankings and lists of the Ideas-Repec database, and we analyze the information available regarding female representation and outstanding publications in the countries of this study. The main conclusion is that female representation is still low in the rankings of the most consulted authors. Having a wide space for scientific communication in English, as is the case in the United States, with a fairly high level of research funding is very important. Europe does not have such a wide space due to the diversity of languages ??and the lack of institutional support to publications in English or translations to other languages. In the case of Spain and Latin America there is a linguistic space for communication (both in Spanish and English) but in general little support for the financing of research. Despite the difficulties, the contributions of Spain and Latin America in the international context are important. We highlight some initiatives such as Dialnet, Ideas-Repec, SCOPUS and others that contribute to provide visibility and promoting the scientific communication space between Spain and America. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eaa:ecodev:125&r= |
| By: | Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; De Grauwe, Paul |
| Abstract: | We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish that financial crises can lead to government interventions in financial markets. Consistent with a public interest channel, we find post-crisis interventions occur only in democratic countries. However, by using a plausibly exogenous setting -i.e., term limits- muting political accountability, we show that democratic leaders who do not have re-election concerns are substantially more likely to intervene in financial markets after crises, in ways that may promote (obstruct) private (public) interests. |
| JEL: | G01 G28 P11 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2021_010&r= |
| By: | Jérôme Gautié (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03242225&r= |
| By: | Lenormand, Theo; Dwyer, Janet; Devienne, Sophie |
| Abstract: | Since 1990 South-Pembrokeshire has seen rapid changes to its once homogenous landscape dominated by dairy farms. An analysis of this differentiation was made using a system-based French method: an ‘agrarian diagnosis’ in which the current situation is perceived as being the result of both the constraints and qualities of the geographic context in which agriculture is situated, and of a history that has shaped its production methods and social structure. 92 semi-structured farm interviews were carried out in a discrete South Pembrokeshire area, formed of 3 different landscape units with a wide diversity of farm types, and combined with literature, documentary and secondary data analysis. From 1990, the relatively similar dairy farms across Pembrokeshire differentiated under sustained income pressure, linked to an output/input price squeeze and a challenging environment for business expansion. Those farms who stayed in dairying used different strategies to expand, at different times. A ruthless selection process took place, as many farms were pushed out of milk into beef and sheep. This was the first step in a trend towards renting out the land and retiring from farming altogether. The reduced pressure on land use in some farms allowed Potato farming to re-emerge in the landscape, among specialized farms and in just one landscape type. Gradually, a complex, interdependent ecosystem of farms has developed, with businesses exchanging outputs and inputs. The detailed modelling of current farming systems using functional ‘archetypes’, examining economic performance and agricultural income, allows us to understand the economic structure of land use. From this we can forecast a likely second turning point in farm evolution arising from the new support policy and emerging post-Brexit and post-Covid economic environment. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc21:312069&r= |
| By: | Klotzbücher, Valentin; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of Islamist terrorist activity on women's economic, political and legal position in society, using data for 168 countries between 1970 and 2016. We provide robust evidence that increased activity by Islamist terrorist groups is associated with lower levels of women's empowerment and rights. Various instrumental-variable approaches yield the same conclusion, suggesting that the adverse effect of Islamist terrorism on women' rights is causal. Further emphasizing the role of violent Islamist fundamentalism, we find no evidence that Islam per se (as indicated by a country's Muslim population share) affects the position of women in society. Finally, we show that left-wing and nationalist-separatist terrorism do not affect women's rights, which reinforces the notion that Islamist terrorism is singularly interested and effective in achieving weaker women's rights. We argue that our findings are consistent with predictions of a strategic model of terrorism, where (1) Islamist terrorists use violence to curb women's rights because they consider modern notions of gender equality to be corruptive and (2) governments make concessions that constrain the role of women in society because the costs of compliance are lower than the political and economic harm that would result from further Islamist terrorist attacks. |
| Keywords: | Islamist terrorism,women's rights,gender equality,effectiveness of terrorism,strategic model of terrorism |
| JEL: | D74 H11 K00 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wgspdp:202102&r= |
| By: | Giacomo Caracciolo (Bank of Italy); Salvatore Lo Bello (Bank of Italy); Dario Pellegrino (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Relative to past pandemics, the mortality effects of Covid-19 on the demographic structure are likely smaller. However, the behavioural effects of the economic crisis on the decisions to have children and to migrate may be substantial. The literature on the relationship between the economic cycle and demographics uncovers the potential of the unemployment rate to predict fertility and migrations. Based on this evidence, we estimate the elasticity of the number of births per woman of child-bearing age and of the net migration rate to the unemployment rate in Italy, considering the 1980-2019 period. Accordingly, we forecast the impact of the pandemic on the birth rate and on migration flows in 2020-23, and we build alternative scenarios for the following years (2024-2065). Lastly, we examine the consequences of the same phenomena on the demographic structure and on GDP and on GDP per capita. Given the scenarios outlined in our work and in the absence of effective policies to support economic growth, the crisis may exacerbate the process of population ageing indicated by Istat projections, with significant repercussions for output. |
| Keywords: | demographic trends, macroeconomic effects, and forecasts, fertility, family planning, economic history (demography, comparative), population ageing. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N30 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_622_21&r= |
| By: | Patrick Bouchet (UFR Sciences du Sport (STAPS) (Université de Bourgogne) - UB - Université de Bourgogne) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to synthesize research on the Management of Sports Organizations (MOS) in France. Three parts structure this voluntarily simplifying contribution, very personal and collective at the same time through the direct and indirect contributions of many researchers. First of all, two historical parts between the 1960s and the 2000s provide a first disciplinary and then thematic perspective in order to make a French-speaking retrospective of the dynamics of scientific production. A last part in the form of a conclusion and an opening seeks to characterize the recent dynamics of MOS research (specialization, interaction, diversification) according to disciplines and/or objects of study. From this point of view, it constitutes a call for contributions that could be added progressively through the electronic format of the S2MS journal: Management & Organisations du Sport. |
| Keywords: | Management,research,sports,sports organizations |
| Date: | 2021–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03087262&r= |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Nikos Nomikos; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 57% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 78%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market. |
| Keywords: | Merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; COVID-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization |
| JEL: | E32 E37 F47 F62 |
| Date: | 2021–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:92810&r= |