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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2021‒06‒21
sixty papers chosen by |
| By: | Eric Monnet; Francois R. Velde |
| Abstract: | We review developments in the history of money, banking, and financial intermediation over the last twenty years. We focus on studies of financial development, including the role of regulation and the history of central banking. We also review the literature of banking and financial crises. This area has been largely unaffected by the so-called new econometric methods that seek to prove causality in reduced form settings. We discuss why historical macroeconomics is less amenable to such methods, discuss the underlying concepts of causality, and emphasize that models remain the backbone of our historical narratives. |
| Keywords: | historical macroeconomics; money; banking; financial intermediation |
| JEL: | N01 N10 N20 |
| Date: | 2020–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:92646&r= |
| By: | Catherine R. Schenk |
| Abstract: | The 2008 crisis was a boon to the discipline of economic history and created an appetite for ‘lessons from the past’ by academics as well as policy-makers as they sought to respond to the failure of economic theory to anticipate the crisis. But beyond this intense example, can we make conclusions about the pathway to impact for historical treatments? Is there something especially inspiring or impactful about the 1930s? Does the widespread awareness that there was an interwar great depression and that it was terrible and that it may have contributed to the Second World War mean that it has particular resonance when it is invoked by policy-makers? How has the past been used in anticipation of (rather than reaction to) financial crises? Examining two episodes, this chapter demonstrates the use of the past as a parable for current and future policy and as a rehearsal for a future crisis. |
| Keywords: | devaluation, debt crisis, Bretton Woods, central bank cooperation, Great Depression |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_193&r= |
| By: | Hanlon, William Walker; Hansen, Casper Worm; Kantor, Jake |
| Abstract: | Using weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our results show that both warm and cold weeks were associated with elevated mortality in the late 19th-century, but heat effects, due mainly to infant deaths from digestive diseases, largely disappeared after WWI. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deathsâ??equal to 0.8-1.3 percent of all deathsâ??were averted. Our findings also indicate that a series of hot years in the 1890s substantially changed the timing of the infant mortality decline in London. |
| JEL: | I15 N3 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14851&r= |
| By: | Kelly, Morgan; Mokyr, Joel; Ó Gráda, Cormac |
| Abstract: | For contemporaries, Britain's success in developing the technologies of the early Industrial Revolution rested in large part on its abundant supply of artisan skills, notably in metalworking. In this paper we outline a simple process where successful industrialization occurs in regions that start with low wages and high mechanical skills, and show that these two factors strongly explain the growth of the textile industry across the 41 counties of England between the 1760s and 1830s. By contrast, literacy and access to capital have no power in predicting industrialization, nor does proximity to coal. Although unimportant as a source of power for early textile machinery, Britain's coal was vital as a source of cheap heat that allowed it over centuries to develop a unique range of sophisticated metalworking industries. From these activities came artisans, fromwatchmakers to iron founders, whose industrial skillswere in demand not just in Britain but across all of Europe. Against the view that living standards were stagnant during the Industrial Revolution, we find that real wages rose sharply in the industrializing north and collapsed in the previously prosperous south. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14884&r= |
| By: | Kris James Mitchener; Kirsten Wandschneider; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke |
| Abstract: | We document the outbreak of a trade war after the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested the possible implementation of the sweeping tariff legislation, with many eventually choosing to retaliate by increasing their tariffs on imports from the United States. Using a new quarterly dataset on bilateral trade for 99 countries during the interwar period, we show that U.S. exports to countries that protested fell by between 15 and 22 percent, while U.S. exports to retaliators fell by 28-33 percent. Furthermore, using a second new dataset on U.S. exports at the product-level, we find that the most important U.S. exports to retaliating markets were particularly affected, suggesting a possible mechanism whereby the U.S. was targeted despite countries’ MFN obligations. The retaliators’ welfare gains from trade fell by roughly 8-17%. |
| Keywords: | Trade wars, gravity model, Smoot-Hawley, Great Depression, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N70 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_188&r= |
| By: | Jane Humphries; Benjamin Schneider |
| Abstract: | Development economists have long studied the relationship between gender equality and economic growth. More recently economic historians have taken an overdue interest. We sketch the pathways within the development literature that have been hypothesised as linking equality for women to rising incomes and the reverse channels, from higher incomes to equality. We describe how the European Marriage Pattern literature applies these mechanisms, and we highlight problems with the claimed link between equality and growth. We then explain how a crucial example of technological unemployment for women—the destruction of hand spinning during the British Industrial Revolution—contributed to the emergence of the male breadwinner family. We show how this family structure created household relationships that play into the development pathways, and outline its persistent effects into the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | development economics, gender equality, technological unemployment, family structure |
| JEL: | J12 J63 N33 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_191&r= |
| By: | FUKAO Kyoji; MAKINO Tatsuji |
| Abstract: | Labor productivity growth in Japan has been sluggish since the 1990s. As a result, average incomes and wages have hardly increased. Looking at the sources of productivity growth from the supply-side of the economy using the newly compiled Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Database 2018 and other sources, this paper examines the reasons for this sluggish productivity growth. This paper differs from previous studies on the topic in the following respects. First, instead of conducting growth accounting for the macroeconomy, we present growth accounting using detailed industry-level data. Second, we examine in detail the sources of labor productivity growth in the past, including which industries led the accumulation of physical and human capital in the economy as a whole, and in what ways the reallocation of labor across industries occurred. Third, we conduct long-term growth accounting based on industry-level data for the period 1955–2015 by extending the JIP Database backward. This allows us to determine why labor productivity slowed down during Japan's lost decades (1990–2015) compared to the high-speed growth era (1955–70) and the period of stable growth (1970–90), and which industries were responsible for this slowdown. Our main findings are as follows: (1) the tertiary sector has played an important role in labor productivity growth in Japan since the high-speed growth era in terms of capital accumulation, labor quality improvements, and total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and this importance of the tertiary sector has increased further in recent years; (2) more than 80% of the labor productivity growth in the macroeconomy was due to intra-industry effects; and (3) the contribution of labor quality improvements gradually increased, so that during the lost decades from 1990 onward, labor quality improvements became the second largest contributor to overall growth after capital accumulation. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:21018&r= |
| By: | Swanepoel, Christie; Fliers, Philip |
| Abstract: | The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa's exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa's exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB's policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country's exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation, was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa's unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation, however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank's control over the gold markets were of paramount importance. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy management,interwar gold standard,South Africa |
| JEL: | N14 N20 E42 E52 E58 F33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201205&r= |
| By: | Valentin Klotzbücher; Tim Krieger; Daniel Meierrieks |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of class cleavages on terrorist activity by anarchist and leftist terrorist groups in 99 American, Asian and European countries over the 1860-1950 period. We find that higher levels of political exclusion of the poor, our main measure of class conflict, were associated with higher levels of social-revolutionary terrorist activity during this time period. This finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach and a battery of additional robustness checks. We argue that class cleavages – in the form of the monopolization of political power by the rich – perpetuated and exacerbated the socio-economic ordeal of the poor, while simultaneously curtailing their means to effect relief in the ordinary political process. Consistent with our expectations, this provoked terrorist violence by groups whose ideological orientation highlighted concerns over class conflict, economic equality and the political participation of the poor. Indeed, our empirical analysis also shows that terrorist groups motivated by other ideologies (e.g. extreme nationalism) did not respond to political exclusion of the poor in the same manner, which further emphasizes the role of ideological inclinations in the terrorist response to class antagonisms. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, social-revolutionary terrorism, political exclusion of the poor, instrumental-variable approach |
| JEL: | D74 N40 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9118&r= |
| By: | Benest, Serge |
| Abstract: | Following World War II, the director of the Social Sciences Division at the Rockefeller Foundation, the industrial economist Joseph H. Willits, thought it important to extend its activities to Europe, especially France. His agenda was to strengthen institutional economics and to create modern research centers with a view to stabilizing the political situation. In the postwar decade, almost all economic research centers in France were funded by the Foundation, which helped provide greater autonomy to French economists within academia, but failed to reshape French economic training and research. |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3gmf5&r= |
| By: | Cormac Ó Gráda; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke |
| Abstract: | We provide a centennial overview of the Irish economy in the one hundred years following partition and independence. A comparative perspective allows us to distinguish between those aspects of Irish policies and performance that were unique to the country, and those which mirrored developments elsewhere. While Irish performance was typical in the long run, the country under-performed prior to the mid-1980s and over-performed for the rest of the twentieth century. Real growth after 2000 was slow. The mainly chronological narrative highlights the roles of convergence forces, trade and industrial policy, and monetary and fiscal policy. While the focus is mostly on the south of the island, we also survey the Northern Irish experience during this period. |
| Keywords: | Ireland, economic growth, living standards, trade policy, crises |
| JEL: | N14 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_189&r= |
| By: | Palma, Nuno Pedro G.; Zhao, Liuyan |
| Abstract: | We test for integration of financial markets in China during 1920-1933 using a new dataset of domestic exchange rates. Our data concerns tael-denominated telegraphic transfers between Shanghai and nine other cities. We find that Chinese financial markets, as measured by the efficiency of silver-point arbitrage, were highly integrated among major commercial hubs in north and central China, but there was a lower level of integration for more remote cities in the south. Our paper presents the first comprehensive assessment of the efficiency of the Chinese silver standard, and contributes to a revaluation of market performance during pre-communist China. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Economy; Exchange Rates; market integration; silver point arbitrage |
| JEL: | N15 N25 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14860&r= |
| By: | Laurent Le Maux (University of Western Brittany) |
| Abstract: | Walter Bagehot (1873) published his famous book, Lombard Street, almost 150 years ago. The adage 'lending freely against good collateral at a penalty rate' is associated with his name and his book has always been set on a pedestal and is still considered as the leading reference on the role of lender of last resort. Nonetheless, without a clear understanding of the theoretical grounds and the institutional features of the British banking system, any interpretation of Bagehot's writings remains vague if not misleading, which is worrisome if they are supposed to provide a guideline for policy makers. The purpose of the present paper is to determine whether Bagehot's recommendation remains relevant for modern central bankers or whether it was indigenous to the monetary and banking architecture of Victorian times. |
| Keywords: | Central Banking, Lender of Last Resort |
| JEL: | B1 E5 |
| Date: | 2021–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp147&r= |
| By: | Kelly, Morgan; Ó Gráda, Cormac |
| Abstract: | Disputes over whether the Scientific Revolution contributed to the Industrial Revolution begin with the common assumption that natural philosophers and artisans formed radically distinct groups. In reality, these groups merged together through a diverse group of applied mathematics teachers, textbook writers and instrument makers catering to a market of navigators, gunners and surveyors. From these "mathematical practitioners" emerged specialized instrument makers whose capabilities facilitated industrialization in two important ways. First, a large supply of instrument and watch makers provided Britain with a pool of versatile, mechanically skilled labour to build the increasingly complicated machinery of the late eighteenth century. Second, the less well known but equally revolutionary innovations in machine tools-which, contrary to the Habbakuk thesis, occurred largely in Britain during the 1820s and 1830s to mass produce interchangeable parts for iron textile machinery-drew on a technology of exact measurement developed for navigational and astronomical instruments. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14885&r= |
| By: | Robert C. Allen (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | For the past four centuries, technical change and the labour market have evolved together through a feed back process. Four phases in that history are distinguished here: the preindustrial revolution (1620-1770), the industrial revolution (1770-1867), the age of industry (1867-1973), and the service revolution (1973-present). The focus is on the leading economy of each period–Great Britain in the first two and the USA in the last two. In all periods, output per worker has increased. In the first and the third, the average wage rose and wages tended to converge; in the second and fourth, the average wage was constant and wage and overall inequality increased. The feedback between wages and technology are discussed, and the causes of this periodization are explored. The roles of globalization and changes in the institutions responsible for technical change are discussed. The menu of policy choices to deal with the present labour market and inequality issues are considered in light of the history. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210065&r= |
| By: | Kersting, Felix; Wohnsiedler, Iris; Wolf, Nikolaus |
| Abstract: | We revisit Max Weber's hypothesis on the role of Protestantism for economic development. We show that nationalism is crucial to both, the interpretation of Weber's Protestant Ethic and empirical tests thereof. For late nineteenth-century Prussia we reject Weber's suggestion that Protestantism mattered due to an "ascetic compulsion to save". Moreover, we find that income levels, savings, and literacy rates differed between Germans and Poles, not between Protestants and Catholics, using pooled OLS and IV regressions. We suggest that this result is due to anti-Polish discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Max Weber; Nationalism; Protestantism |
| JEL: | N13 N33 O16 Z12 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14963&r= |
| By: | Daniel Kolar (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the lack of previous research on historical inequality in Central Europe, this paper constructs wealth inequality statistics for a larger town in South Bohemia, Budweis. The data sources are rare detailed local tax censuses from 1416 and 1523 and a national tax register from 1654 as reported in the literature, further adjusted for lowest social groups and processed to create social tables. If the underlying data are accurate, the wealth inequality Gini coefficient in 1416 was between 0.739 and 0.777. The estimated wealth share of the top 1% evolved from 22.6% in 1416 to 9.6% in 1654, values significantly lower than in the pre-industrial UK or France, as well as in the contemporary Czech Republic. |
| Keywords: | historical inequality, social tables, Gini coefficient, wealth |
| JEL: | N33 N43 N93 D63 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2021_18&r= |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina |
| Abstract: | We provide estimates of economic growth at decadal frequency for Russia during the eighteenth century. Although GDP per head increased between the 1690s and 1760s, this was followed by a period of negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s, leaving GDP per capita just 17 per cent higher at the end of the century than at its beginning. Although Russia’s strong growth in large-scale industry during the eighteenth century has received much attention, this was starting from a very low base. Peter the Great’s modernisation drive thus had only a small effect on the economy as a whole, which remained dominated by agriculture and small-scale industry. |
| Date: | 2021–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_192&r= |
| By: | Lindgren Erik; Per Pettersson-Lidbom; Bjorn Tyrefors |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways on three measures of local economic activity: real nonagricultural income, agricultural land values and population size. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 Swedish geographical units, i.e., local governments, during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event study design that is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity. Importantly, we find extremely large reduced-form effects of having access to railways. For real nonagricultural income, the cumulative treatment effect is approximately 120% after 30 years. Therefore, this effect is 20 times larger than most reduced-form effects found in previous works on the effect of transport infrastructure on economic activity. Equally important, we also show that our reduced-form effect reflects growth rather than a reorganization of existing economic activity. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2106.00348&r= |
| By: | Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Aastha Rajan; Ying Shi |
| Abstract: | The Great Migration significantly increased the number of African Americans moving to northern and western cities beginning in the first half of the twentieth century. We show that their arrival shaped “slum clearance” and urban redevelopment efforts in receiving cities. To estimate the effect of migrants, we instrument for Black population changes using a shift-share instrument that interacts historical migration patterns with local economic shocks that predict Black out-migration from the South. We find that local governments responded by undertaking more urban renewal projects that aimed to redevelop and rehabilitate “blighted” areas. More Black migrants also led to an increase in the estimated number of displaced families. This underscores the contribution of spatial policies such as urban renewal towards understanding the long-term consequences of the Great Migration on central cities and Black neighborhoods and individuals. |
| Keywords: | urban renewal; great migration |
| JEL: | J15 N92 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:92150&r= |
| By: | James M. Nason; Gregor W. Smith |
| Abstract: | Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and model its forecasts. The model is an AR(n) but allows for gradually evolving or drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to measure inflation predictability and price-level instability from the beginning of the sample and to provide measures of real interest rates since 1695. |
| Keywords: | inflation, price revolutions, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters |
| JEL: | E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-32&r= |
| By: | Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new dataset of commodity-specific, bilateral import data for four large Asian economies in the interwar period: China, the Dutch East Indies, India, and Japan. It uses these data to describe the interwar trade collapses in the economies concerned. These resembled the post-2008 Great Trade Collapse in some respects but not in others: they occurred along the intensive margin, imports of cars were particularly badly affected, and imports of durable goods fell by more than those of non-durables, except in China and India which were rapidly industrializing. On the other hand the import declines were geographically imbalanced, while prices were more important than quantities in driving the overall collapse. |
| Keywords: | Trade collapses; interwar economy; protection |
| JEL: | N75 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_190&r= |
| By: | Ashworth, Jonathan; Goodhart, Charles A |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade the media have regularly reported on the imminent death of cash amid rapid innovation in payment technologies. However, cash in circulation has actually been growing strongly in many counties. Perhaps unsurprisingly given Coronavirus-related health concerns, there have been renewed calls to abandon cash and some observers have argued the virus will accelerate its demise. Data thus far suggest, however, that currency in circulation has actually surged in a number of countries. While the economic shutdowns and increased use of online retailing are currently diminishing cash's traditional function as a medium of exchange, it seems that this is being more than offset by panic driven hoarding of banknotes. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus; Currency usage; Hoarding in panics; Payment technologies |
| JEL: | E40 E41 E49 E63 N10 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14910&r= |
| By: | Daniel Fehrle (University of Augsburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite an extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents new evidence from the Jordà -Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database, which covers return rates on housing and equity as well as consumer price indices of 16 developed countries from 1870 - 2015. The results depend on the time horizon and period considered. Within one, five, and ten years housing hedges, at least partly, against inflation and the hedge has been better in the post-war period. In the long run housing provides an excessive hedge in the whole sample and a perfect hedge in the post-war period. Equity provides no hedge within one-year in the whole sample period and the returns tend to decrease with inflation in the post-war period. The hedge improves slightly with a longer time horizon and is perfect in the long run in the post-war period. Thus, housing is, at least weakly, superior in hedging against inflation. The results are robust to a non-housing consumption price index and an asset price appreciation approach. |
| Keywords: | hedge, inflation, stocks, real estate, panel cointegration |
| JEL: | C22 C23 E31 E44 G11 N10 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aug:augsbe:0342&r= |
| By: | Greenwood, John (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Milton Friedman is widely known as a brilliant teacher and theoretical economist, but he was also intensely interested in the practical application of his theoretical analysis. In this eulogy, given at the Institute of Economic Affairs (I.E.A.) in London soon after Friedman’s death, I recall two striking examples of these aptitudes. First, anticipating the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, he advocated the introduction of currency futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. These instruments have subsequently become indispensable for portfolio managers and currency traders around the world. Second, although Friedman was renowned for his advocacy of floating exchange rates, he was also at the same time an advocate of fixed exchange rate systems, or currency boards, for small open economies. This idea led to his direct involvement with the stabilization of the Hong Kong dollar after its collapse in 1983. Friedman’s mastery of academic economic analysis no doubt reinforced his confidence in the implementation of those ideas. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0182&r= |
| By: | Pierre-Philippe Combes (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laurent Gobillon (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yanos Zylberberg (University of Bristol [Bristol]) |
| Abstract: | A recent literature has used a historical perspective to better understand fundamental questions of urban economics. However, a wide range of historical documents of exceptional quality remain underutilised: their use has been hampered by their original format or by the massive amount of information to be recovered. In this paper, we describe how and when the flexibility and predictive power of machine learning can help researchers exploit the potential of these historical documents. We first discuss how important questions of urban economics rely on the analysis of historical data sources and the challenges associated with transcription and harmonisation of such data. We then explain how machine learning approaches may address some of these challenges and we discuss possible applications. |
| Keywords: | urban economics,history,machine learning |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03231786&r= |
| By: | Tillman Hönig |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the general equilibrium impact of civil war in Sierra Leone. I first use an instrumental variable (IV) strategy and geographic conflict variation to estimate reduced-form effects. I show that civil war leads to affected areas having a higher share of workers in agriculture, fewer educated workers, and lower worker income. In order to explicitly take into account general equilibrium effects such as selective migration in response to the war, I then develop an economic geography model. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, Livelihoods, Structural transformation, Migration, Computable general equilibrium, Firm productivity, Human capital |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-104&r= |
| By: | Daniel Aaronson; Jacob Faber; Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Patrick Sharkey |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps on census tract-level measures of socioeconomic status and economic opportunity from the Opportunity Atlas (Chetty et al. 2018). We use two identification strategies to identify the long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first compares cross-boundary differences along actual HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had similar pre-existing differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach uses a statistical model to identify boundaries that were least likely to have been chosen by the HOLC. We find that the maps had large and statistically significant causal effects on a wide variety of outcomes measured at the census tract level for cohorts born in the late 1970s and early 1980s. |
| Keywords: | Redlining; access to credit; segregation; HOLC; economic opportunity; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | H81 O18 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:92320&r= |
| By: | Iandolo, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Review of “Economic Knowledge in Socialism, 1945-89.” Annual Supplement to Volume 51 of History of Political Economy, edited by Till Düppe and Ivan Boldyrev |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pkr49&r= |
| By: | Robert C. Allen (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | Slavery in Arabia is usually regarded as benign in contrast to slavery in the Caribbean. The difference is often explained in terms of cultural values and stress is often laid on the role of Islam. This paper analyses this view primarily in terms of men employed in oasis agriculture and pearling in Arabia in the long nineteenth century, although some attention is also given to the situation of women. It is argued here that differences in the skill requirements of growing sugar in the Caribbean and dates in Arabia, as well as differences in the importance of self-supervision, explain the differences in the character of slavery. The centrality of market forces in explaining behaviour is developed by analysing the supply of slaves from Africa to Arabia and the demand for slaves derived from models of a date plantation and a pearling voyage. The economic return to organizing date gardens, so that the slaves have enough income to raise children is also discussed, and the interface between this source of supply and that of newly purchased is analysed. A geo-referenced data base of slave prices is developed and used to explore these issues. It is argued that Britain’s efforts to suppress the slave trade, the division of east Africa among colonial powers, and state development in Ethiopia drove long run increases in the supply price of slaves. The opening of the Suez canal increased the demand price of dates after 1869, while rising incomes led to an increased demand for pearls later in the nineteenth century. The increased prices of these products increased the demand price of slaves. The evolution of demand and supply both contributed to a long run rise in the price of slaves. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210066&r= |
| By: | Neil R. Ericsson |
| Abstract: | David Hendry has made–and continues to make–pivotal contributions to the econometrics of empirical economic modeling, economic forecasting, econometrics software, substantive empirical economic model design, and economic policy. This paper reviews his contributions by topic, emphasizing the overlaps between different strands in his research and the importance of real-world problems in motivating that research. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration; Consumers' expenditure; Dynamic specification; Equilibrium correction; Forecasting; Machine learning; Model evaluation; Money demand; PcGive; Structural breaks |
| JEL: | C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2021–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1311&r= |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Knight, Brian; Testa, Cecilia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the franchise and law enforcement practices using evidence from the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965. We find that, following the VRA, black arrest rates fell in counties that were both covered by the legislation and had a large number of newly enfranchised black voters. We uncover no corresponding patterns for white arrest rates. The reduction in black arrest rates is driven by less serious offenses, for which police might have more enforcement discretion. Importantly, our results are driven by arrests carried out by sheriffs - who are always elected. While there are no corresponding changes for municipal police chiefs in aggregate, we do find similar patterns in covered counties with elected rather than appointed chiefs. We also show that our findings cannot be rationalized by alternative explanations, such as differences in collective bargaining, changes in the underlying propensity to commit crimes, responses to changes in policing practices, and changes in the suppression of civil right protests. Taken together, these results document that voting rights, when combined with elected, rather than appointed, chief law enforcement officers, can lead to improved treatment of minority groups by police. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14946&r= |
| By: | David Ardia; Keven Bluteau; Alaa Kassem |
| Abstract: | A novel token-distance-based triple approach is proposed for identifying EPU mentions in textual documents. The method is applied to a corpus of French-language news to construct a century-long historical EPU index for the Canadian province of Quebec. The relevance of the index is shown in a macroeconomic nowcasting experiment. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2106.05240&r= |
| By: | Kuehn, Daniel |
| Abstract: | James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock took a keen interest in the United States Supreme Court’s reapportionment decisions of the 1960s, which established a “one person, one vote” standard for state legislative apportionment. This paper traces the long arc of Buchanan and Tullock’s opposition to the “one person, one vote” standard. The Calculus of Consent offers a highly qualified efficiency argument against “one person, one vote,” but over time Buchanan and Tullock grew even more vocally critical of the decisions. Buchanan ultimately advocated a constitutional amendment overturning “one person, one vote” in a private set of recommendations to Congressional Republicans. This paper additionally assesses Tullock’s 1987 complaint that scholars and judges neglected The Calculus of Consent’s analysis of reapportionment. A review of the reapportionment literature between 1962 and 1987 demonstrates that while the book was frequently cited, the literature generally ignored its analysis of the efficiency of apportionment standards. |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zetq4&r= |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We forecast real stock returns of South Africa over the monthly period of 1915:01 to 2021:03 using real oil, gold and silver prices, based on an autoregressive type distributed lag model that controls for persistence and endogeneity bias. Oil price proxies for fundamentals, while gold and silver prices capture sentiments. We find that the metrics for fundamentals and sentiments both predict real stock returns of South Africa, with nonlinearity, modelled by decomposition of these prices into their respective positive and negative counterparts, playing an important role in terms of forecasting when a longer out-of-sample period spanning over three-quarters of a century is used. When compared to fundamentals, sentiments, particularly real gold prices, have a relatively more stronger role to play in forecasting real stock returns. Further, the predictability of stock returns emanating from fundamentals and sentiments is in line with the findings over the same period derived for two other advanced markets namely, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US), but the stock market of another emerging economy, i.e., India covering 1920:08 to 2021:03, unlike South Africa, is found to be completely unpredictable. In other words, South Africa, in terms of its predictability, behaves like a developed stock market. Finally, given the importance of platinum and palladium for South Africa, our forecasting exercise based on their real prices over 1968:01 to 2021:03, depicts strong predictive content for real stock returns, thus again highlighting the importance of behavioral variables. However, these prices do not necessarily contain additional information over what is already available in gold, silver and oil real prices. Our results have important implications for academicians, investors and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, real stock returns, emerging and developed markets, forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G15 G17 Q02 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202144&r= |
| By: | Sarwar J. Minar; Abdul Halim |
| Abstract: | Recent event of ousting Rohingyas from Rakhine State by the Tatmadaw provoked worldwide public-and-academic interest in history and social evolution of the Rohingyas, and this is to what the article is devoted. As the existing literature presents a debate over Who are the Rohingyas?, and How legitimate is their claim over Rakhine State?, the paper reinvestigates the issues using a qualitative research method. Compiling a detailed history, the paper finds that Rohingya community developed through historically complicated processes marked by invasions and counter-invasions. The paper argues many people entered Bengal from Arakan before British brought people into Rakhine state. The Rohingyas believe Rakhine State is their ancestral homeland and they developed a sense of Ethnic Nationalism. Their right over Rakhine State is as significant as other groups. The paper concludes that the UN must pursue solution to the crisis and the government should accept the Rohingyas as it did the land or territory. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2106.02945&r= |
| By: | Miguel D. Ramirez (Department of Economics, Trinity College) |
| Keywords: | Absolute value; constant capital; fetishism; invariable standard;prices of production; profit; relative value; surplus-value; standard commodity; value; variable capital. |
| JEL: | B10 B14 B24 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tri:wpaper:2101&r= |
| By: | Carlos, Ann M.; Feir, Donna; Redish, Angela |
| Abstract: | Abundant land and strong property rights are conventionally viewed as key factors underpinning US economic development success. This view relies on the "Pristine Myth" of an empty undeveloped land. But the abundant land of North America was already made productive and was the recognized territory of sovereign Indigenous Nations. We demonstrate that the development of strong property rights for European/American settlers was mirrored by the attenuation and increasing disregard of Indigenous property rights and that the dearth of discussion of the dispossession of Indigenous nations results in a misunderstanding of some of the core themes of US economic history. |
| Keywords: | indigenous peoples,development of the American economy,Institutions |
| JEL: | N40 N41 N50 N51 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201204&r= |
| By: | Mata, Tiago |
| Abstract: | Review of “Recharting the History of Economic Thought” edited by Kevin Deane and Elisa Van Waeyenberge |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xmg5j&r= |
| By: | Khodaiji, Sharmin |
| Abstract: | Review of “Pluralistic Economics and Its History” edited by Ajit Sinha and Alex M. Thomas |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qthmk&r= |
| By: | Martina Cioni; Giovanni Federico; Michelangelo Vasta (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the state of the art of economic history, focusing on recent changes that have recently characterized the field. We rely on a new database of almost 2,700 articles published from 2001 to 2018 in the top-five economic history journals and in 13 leading economics journals. We argue that economic history still remains a distinct field. The share of economic history articles in economics journals increased very little and only few authors published in both economics and economic history journals. Publishing in top-five economic journals yields more citations than in top-field journals, but this is not necessarily true for other prestigious economic journals. Finally, we speculate on the future. Will economic history lose its soul and become a sub-field of development studies? Will persistence studies become a separate field? Or, perhaps, a new synthesis will emerge, with scholars dealing with traditional and new research questions with a wide range of tools? JEL |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210067&r= |
| By: | Genter, Robert |
| Abstract: | Review of “Making Art Work: How Cold War Engineers and Artists Forged a New Creative Culture” by W. Patrick McCray |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:er72x&r= |
| By: | Blum, Matthias; Krauss, Karl-Peter; Myeshkov, Dmytro |
| Abstract: | Prior to the Age of Mass Migration, Germans left central Europe to settle primarily in modernday Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. Despite the harsh conditions that the first generation of settlers had to endure, their descendants often fared better, not worse, compared to native population groups. This study offers a possible explanation for this surprising outcome. We use data on approximately 11,500 individuals to estimate and compare basic numeracy scores of German settlers and other populations groups in target regions. We find that German settlers generally had superior basic numeracy levels, suggesting that these settlers must have contributed positively to the human capital endowment in their target regions. The numeracy of Germans was somewhat higher than the numeracy of Hungarians and substantially higher than the numeracy of Russians, Ukrainians and Serbs. We do not find noteworthy differences in terms of numeracy between German emigrants and the population they left behind, suggesting the absence of substantial migrant selection. |
| Keywords: | Migration,Economic History,Germany,Hungary,Russian Empire,Ukraine,Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | N13 N23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201203&r= |
| By: | Vanberg, Viktor J. |
| Abstract: | Review of “F.A.Hayek and the Epistemology of Politics – The Curious Task of Economics” by Scott Scheall |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gjv7r&r= |
| By: | Hanna L. Adam; Mario Larch; David Stadelmann |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of international borders and of trade agreements at international borders on subnational (i.e. regional) growth. We construct an extensive panel dataset covering 1,350 regions in 86 countries worldwide between 1950 and 2017. Our results show that international borders decrease regional income per capita, while trade agreements at international borders increase regional income per capita by about the same magnitude. The positive marginal effect of trade agreements on regional income corresponds to at least three fifths of the negative marginal effect of international borders. Thus, trade agreements can compensate negative border effects and explain regional inequalities within countries. An array of robustness tests supports our interpretations. |
| Keywords: | border effects, trade, trade agreements, GDP per capita, regional analysis |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F43 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9100&r= |
| By: | Borgschulte, Mark; Guenzel, Marius; Liu, Canyao; Malmendier, Ulrike M. |
| Abstract: | We show that increased job demands due to takeover threats and industry crises have significant adverse consequences for managers' long-term health. Using hand-collected data on the dates of birth and death for more than 1,600 CEOs of large, publicly listed U.S. firms, we estimate that CEOs' lifespan increases by around two years when insulated from market discipline via anti-takeover laws. CEOs also stay on the job longer, with no evidence of a compensating differential in the form of lower pay. In a second analysis, we find diminished longevity arising from increases in job demands caused by industry-wide downturns during a CEO's tenure. Finally, we utilize machine-learning age-estimation methods to detect visible signs of aging in pictures of CEOs. We estimate that exposure to a distress shock during the Great Recession increases CEOs' apparent age by roughly one year over the next decade. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14933&r= |
| By: | Baruchello, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | Review of “Vilfredo Pareto: An Intellectual Biography III. From Liberty to Science (1898-1923)” by Fiorenzo Mornati |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zak42&r= |
| By: | Laura Spierdijk; Pieter IJtsma; Sherrill Shaffer |
| Abstract: | The economic literature has largely ignored the existence of global common factors and local spatial dependence in the assessment of the real effects of U.S. banking deregulation. Motivated by consistency concerns, this study uses spatial econometric models with common factors to analyze the impact of U.S. banking deregulation on county-level economic growth during the 1970–2000 period. We estimate the direct effects of banking deregulation, as well as the size, geographic scope and source of any spatial spillovers. Statistically and economically significant growth effects were experienced by counties in states that deregulated intrastate branching, but only after an initial period without any growth effects. We find no significant growth effects of interstate banking deregulation. During the later half of the sample, intrastate branching deregulation increased the average expected annual growth rates of counties in the deregulated state by about 0.5 p.p. in the long run. Local spatial dependence turns out to be a crucial feature of county-level economic growth, even after common factors are accounted for. As a result, significant spatial spillovers of intrastate branching deregulation were experienced by counties in states surrounding the deregulated state during the later half of the sample. Intrastate branching deregulation increased the average expected annual growth rates of counties adjacent to the deregulated state by about 0.2 p.p. in the long run, while the spillovers to hinterland counties in adjacent states were still about 0.05–0.1 p.p. A comparison to models that ignore common factors or local spatial dependence substantiates our consistency concerns. |
| Keywords: | U.S. banking deregulation, common factors, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spillovers, local economic growth |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-33&r= |
| By: | Philippy, David |
| Abstract: | In 1899, MIT chemist Ellen H. Richards (1842–1911) instigated a series of annual “Lake Placid Conferences” (1899–1908) that became known as the foundation of the home economics movement. Richards’s first interest was in improving the household’s well-being by using sanitary and nutrition sciences, an objective that was passed on to the movement. However, by the 1920s, home economists rather identified their field of expertise as the “science of consumption,” emphasizing the idea of “rational consumption.” My aim in this article is to give an account of how this shift in focus came about, by telling the story of the home economics movement founded by Richards. I examine how the movement problematized consumption by highlighting its relationship and perception of itself regarding economics. I argue that the concept of consumption was central to the structuring of the movement from its beginning and allowed home economists to claim it as their field of expertise because, as they believed, economists were not addressing the issue. |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:v8yfk&r= |
| By: | Gaddis, S. Michael (UCLA); DiRago, Nicholas V. |
| Abstract: | Since the 1960s, social scientists, fair housing agencies, and the federal government have conducted hundreds of in-person and correspondence housing audits. Researchers use these covert experiments to make strong causal claims about difficult-to-detect behavior, such as racial, gender, and other types of discrimination. These studies have consistently uncovered discrimination in multiple stages and contexts of the housing exchange process. The housing audit literature is broad and robust, and a number of in-depth reviews already exist. In this chapter, we build on those reviews by focusing attention on emerging areas of inquiry and suggest new avenues of research pursuits. We begin by briefly reviewing the long history of housing audits including in-person HUD audits and correspondence audits of home sales and housing rentals. Next, we discuss three emerging areas of housing audit research – housing choice vouchers, short-term rentals, and roommate searches – and highlight important findings, new innovations, and areas of weakness. Finally, we conclude with a discussion about future directions of housing audits including using experiments to test for ways to reduce discrimination, using additional data to examine the mechanisms of housing discrimination, and designing modified audits to explore discrimination in other stages of housing exchange. |
| Date: | 2021–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fn4ta&r= |
| By: | Juan Pablo Rowert Mariscal; Álvaro Céspedes Tapia; José A. Pantoja Ballivián (Banco Central de Bolivia) |
| Abstract: | La investigación explica los factores productivos que más incidieron en el crecimiento económico para el periodo de 1950 a 2018; también se construye la brecha con respecto al PIB potencial para similar periodo. Para ello, se aplica la metodología de contabilidad del crecimiento y métodos econométricos (filtro de Hodrick Prescott, Baxter King, Kalman y un modelo SVAR). Los resultados señalan que la productividad total de factores incidió, en mayor magnitud, durante los primeros cuarenta años, seguida del capital humano y físico para los siguientes treinta años. Además, el ciclo económico en Bolivia dura alrededor de veinte años y cada nueva década, en promedio, el PIB observado pasa a estar encima o por debajo del nivel potencial. Mediante descomposición histórica se observa que para incrementar el nivel potencial es necesario la formulación de políticas relacionadas con expandir la oferta agregada ya que son las únicas que presentan un impacto de largo plazo. |
| Keywords: | Desarrollo económico, cambio tecnológico y crecimiento |
| JEL: | O11 O40 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:blv:doctra:2019/06&r= |
| By: | Khan, Adnan |
| Abstract: | With nearly 8 million of its 160 million residents living abroad, Bangladesh has one of the world’s largest emigrant populations, ranking only behind India, Mexico, China, Russia, and Syria, according to estimates from the United Nations’ Population Division. The increasing outward orientation of Bangladeshis after national independence in 1971 as well as the 1973 oil boom and thus an increasing need for cheap labor in the Middle East then led to a rapid growth of international labor migration from Bangladesh. In 1976, only 6,000 Bangladeshis left to work abroad. Since then, the number of both temporary expatriate workers and permanent out-migrants has increased dramatically. The main purpose of this paper is to highlight how much progress has been made in the field of international migration and remittances research on the fiftieth anniversary of Bangladesh's independence. Thus, this paper delve out all segments of international migration from Bangladesh to worldwide and remittances inflows vice versa. |
| Keywords: | migration, expatriate, diaspora, temporary, workers, labour, remittances, literature. |
| JEL: | J6 J60 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108143&r= |
| By: | Orkun Saka; Yuemei Ji; Paul De Grauwe |
| Abstract: | We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish that financial crises can lead to government interventions in financial markets. Consistent with a public interest channel, we find post-crisis interventions occur only in democratic countries. However, by using a plausibly exogenous setting -i.e., term limits- muting political accountability, we show that democratic leaders who do not have re-election concerns are substantially more likely to intervene in financial markets after crises, in ways that may promote (obstruct) private (public) interests. |
| Keywords: | financial crises, reform reversals, democracies, term-limits, special-interest groups |
| JEL: | G01 G28 P11 P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9131&r= |
| By: | Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | The definition of inequality is complicated and difficult to assess, and there are various means by which it is evaluated. This study uses the now well-accepted measures of body mass, height, and weight to assess inequality’s relationship with current and cumulative net nutrition. Taller statures allow weight to be distributed over larger areas, and height is inversely related to body mass, however positively related to weight. Because weight increased with age and age inequality, the majority of net nutrition is beyond an individual’s control, and stature inequality is smaller than weight because it is genetically determined. Current net nutrition was positively related to age, however, inversely related to regional inequality. Subsequently, current and cumulative net nutrition are related to inequality and increased across BMI and weight distributions. |
| Keywords: | body mass, stature, and weight inequality, current and cumulative net nutrition |
| JEL: | I10 I14 I30 I32 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9135&r= |
| By: | Schneider, Eric |
| Abstract: | Economic historians have long been aware that sample-selection bias and other forms of bias could lead to spurious causal inferences. However, our approach to these biases has been muddled at times by dealing with each bias separately and by confusion about the sources of bias and how to mitigate them. This paper shows how the methodology of directed acyclical graphs (DAGs) formulated by Pearl (2009) and particularly the concept of collider bias can provide economic historians with a unified approach to managing a wide range of biases that can distort causal inference. I present ten examples of collider bias drawn from economic history research, focussing mainly on examples where the authors were able to overcome or mitigate the bias. Thus, the paper highlights how to diagnose collider bias and also strategies for managing it. The paper also shows that quasi-random experimental designs are rarely able to overcome collider bias. Although all of these biases were understood by economic historians before, conceptualising them as collider bias will improve economic historians' understanding of the limitations of particular sources and help us develop better research designs in the future. |
| Keywords: | collider bias; directed acyclical graphs; sample-selection bias |
| JEL: | N01 N30 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14940&r= |
| By: | Petracca, Enrico |
| Abstract: | Review of “Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making” by George G. Szpiro |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jc6zf&r= |
| By: | Jérôme Gautié (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2019–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03242222&r= |
| By: | Стайков, Ивайло |
| Abstract: | The study analyzes the nature and importance of international standards for labour and social human rights, which have been created for a century by the International Labour Organization. Briefly presented the instruments that accepts this organization and their role in international legal regulation of labour. The report is dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the membership of Bulgaria in this universal specialized international organization. |
| Keywords: | International Labour Organization, international labour standards, international labour law, conventions, recommendations, declarations, labour and social human rights, Republic of Bulgaria |
| JEL: | J80 J83 K31 K33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108154&r= |
| By: | Simon Fuchs |
| Abstract: | How does intranational factor mobility shape the welfare effects of a trade shock? I provide evidence that during WWI, a demand shock emanated from belligerent countries and affected neutral Spain. Within Spain, labor predominantly reallocated locally, while the most affected provinces experienced drastic increases in wages and consumer prices. Embedding imperfect labor mobility in an economic geography model, I show that external demand shocks can improve allocative efficiency, but asymmetric shocks cause localized increases in wages and consumer prices instead of reallocation. Adjusting an aggregate gains of trade formula to take domestic reallocation into account more than triples the estimated welfare effects. |
| Keywords: | gains from trade; labor mobility; economic geography |
| JEL: | D5 F11 F12 F15 F16 N14 N9 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:92576&r= |
| By: | Nahrstedt, Jan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates why the US economic embargo against Cuba is still in place, despite its lack of effectiveness towards the stated objectives of the US government. An explanatory approach with two theoretical frameworks from economics and political science is applied. The paper explores the assumption that the embargo is not in place to achieve a systemic change in Cuba, but rather because it satisfies certain interest groups in the US. An article with similar methodology from 1997 is updated, and the strength of established interest groups is re-evaluated. It is concluded that US interest groups supporting the maintenance of the sanctions against Cuba have significantly weakened since 1997. Additionally, the general US population's support for the embargo, while already weak in 1997, has further weakened and made a rapprochement of the US toward Cuba, especially under a Democratic Presidency, increasingly likely. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions,Cuba,economic embargo,political interest groups |
| JEL: | D72 F51 N42 P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1622021&r= |