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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2021‒06‒14
38 papers chosen by |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Cogneau, Denis; Piketty, Thomas |
| Abstract: | In this article we assess income inequality across French and British colonial empires between 1920 and 1960. For the first time, income tax tabulations are exploited to assess the case studies of French Algeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, and Vietnam, which we compare to British colonies and dominions. As measured by top income shares, inequality was high in colonies. It fell after WWII, but stabilized at much higher levels than in mainland France or the United Kingdom in the 1950s. European settlers or expatriates comprised the bulk of top income earners, and only a minority of autochthons could compete in terms of income, particularly in Africa. Top income shares were no higher in settlement colonies, not only because those territories were wealthier but also because the average European settler was less rich than the average European expatriate. Inequality between Europeans in colonies was similar to (or even below) that of the metropoles. In settlement colonies, the post-WWII fall in income inequality can be explained by a fall in inequality between Europeans, mirroring that of the metropoles, and does not imply that the European/autochthon income gap was reduced. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Asia; Colonialism; inequality; Top incomes |
| JEL: | N3 N35 N37 O15 O53 O55 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14969&r= |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo |
| Abstract: | We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves' ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions. |
| Keywords: | Black family; Culture; migration; Slavery; Sugar |
| JEL: | J12 J47 N30 O13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14837&r= |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O.; Rubin, Jared; Woessmann, Ludger |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the recent social science literature on religion in economic history, covering both socioeconomic causes and consequences of religion. Following the rapidly growing literature, it focuses on the three main monotheisms-Judaism, Christianity, and Islam-and on the period up to WWII. Works on Judaism address Jewish occupational specialization, human capital, emancipation, and the causes and consequences of Jewish persecution. One set of papers on Christianity studies the role of the Catholic Church in European economic history since the medieval period. Taking advantage of newly digitized data and advanced econometric techniques, the voluminous literature on the Protestant Reformation studies its socioeconomic causes as well as its consequences for human capital, secularization, political change, technology diffusion, and social outcomes. Works on missionaries show that early access to Christian missions still has political, educational, and economic consequences in present-day Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Much of the economics of Islam focuses on the role that Islam and Islamic institutions played in political-economy outcomes and in the "long divergence" between the Middle East and Western Europe. Finally, cross-country analyses seek to understand the broader determinants of religious practice and its various effects across the world. We highlight three general insights that emerge from this literature. First, the monotheistic character of the Abrahamic religions facilitated a close historical interconnection of religion with political power and conflict. Second, human capital often played a leading role in the interconnection between religion and economic history. Third, many socioeconomic factors matter in the historical development of religions. |
| Keywords: | Christianity; economic history; Education; Finance; Islam; Judaism; persecution; political economy; specialization; Trade |
| JEL: | I15 I25 J15 N00 Z12 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14894&r= |
| By: | Nuvolari, Alessandro; Ridolfi, Leonardo |
| Abstract: | We construct a new series of GDP per capita for France for the period 1280-1850 using the demand-side approach. Our estimates point to a long run stability of the French economy with a very gradual acceleration towards modern economic growth. In comparative perspective, our new estimates suggest that England and France were characterized by similar levels of economic performance until the second half of the seventeenth century. It is only after that period that the English economy "forges ahead" in a consistent way. |
| Keywords: | : GDP; demand-side approach; economic growth; France |
| JEL: | N13 O47 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14985&r= |
| By: | Cummins, Neil |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes a newly constructed individual level dataset of every English death and probate from 1892–1992. This analysis shows that the twentieth century’s “Great Equalization” of wealth stalled in mid-century. The probate rate, which captures the proportion of English holding any significant wealth at death rose from 10 percent in the 1890s to 40 percent by 1950 and has stagnated to 1992. Despite the large declines in the wealth share of the top 1 percent, from 73 to 20 percent, the median English individual died with almost nothing throughout. All changes in inequality after 1950 involve a reshuffling of wealth within the top 30 percent. I translate the individual level data to synthetic households; the majority have at least one member probated. Yet the bottom 60 percent of households hold only 12 percent of all wealth, at their peak wealth-holding level, in the early 1990s. I also compare the new wealth data with existing estimates of top wealth shares, home-ownership trends, wealth survey distributions, aggregate wealth, and the wealth Gini coefficient. |
| JEL: | N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2021–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110826&r= |
| By: | Emilio Ocampo |
| Abstract: | Argentina’s modern economic history offers perhaps the clearest evidence in support of a rules-based fiscal and monetary policy framework. From 1899 until 1914 the country abided by the rules of the gold standard and experienced rapid GDP growth with price stability. After WWI and until 1939, when it was mostly off the gold standard, its inflation rate and fiscal balances remained in line with those of the world’s most developed countries. During the 1930s the Argentine Treasury was able to issue long-term debt in pesos at rates between 3% and 4% per annum. Something fundamental happened after 1945 and its effects proved persistent: since then inflation has averaged 143% a year –with several bouts of extreme inflation and hyperinflation. In the last 50 years, persistent and high fiscal imbalances, low growth and recurrent sovereign debt defaults have become semi-permanent features of the Argentine economy. This paper argues that Argentina suffers from a condition that can be described as fiscal and monetary anomie, the roots of which can be traced back to the establishment of a populist-corporatist economic regime in 1946. It also contends that the failure of the 1990s structural reforms reinforced this condition. |
| Keywords: | Argentina, Economic History, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Populism |
| JEL: | E5 E63 N16 O54 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:791&r= |
| By: | Ager, Philipp; Feigenbaum, James J; Hansen, Casper Worm; Tan, Huiren |
| Abstract: | Fears of immigrants as a threat to public health have a long and sordid history. At the turn of the 20th century, when millions of immigrants crowded into dense American cities, contemporaries blamed the high urban mortality penalty on the newest arrivals. Nativist sentiments eventually led to the implementation of restrictive quota acts in the 1920s, substantially curtailing immigration. We capture the "missing immigrants" induced by the quotas to estimate the effect of immigration on mortality. We find that cities with more missing immigrants experienced sharp declines in deaths from infectious diseases from the mid-1920s until the late 1930s. The blame for these negative mortality effects lies not with the immigrants, but on the living conditions they endured. We show that mortality declines were largest in cities where immigrants resided in the most crowded and squalid conditions and where public health resources were stretched the thinnest. Though immigrants did die from infectious diseases at higher rates than the US-born, the mortality decline we find is primarily driven by crowding not changes in population composition or contagion, as we show mortality improvements for both US- and foreign-born populations in more quota-affected cities. |
| Keywords: | density; Immigration; Nativism; Urban Mortality |
| JEL: | I14 J15 N32 N92 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14949&r= |
| By: | Alejandro Buesa (Banco de España); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España); Daniel Santabárbara (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | “Awareness” about the occurrence of viral infectious (or other) tail risks can influence their socioeconomic inter-temporal impacts. A branch of the literature finds that prior lifetime exposure to signicant shocks can affect people and societies, i.e. by changing their perceived probability about the occurrence of an extreme, negative shock in the future. In this paper we proxy “awareness” by historical exposure of a country to epidemics, and other catastrophic events. We show that in a large cross-section of more tan 150 countries, more “aware” societies suffered a less intense impact of the COVID-19 disease, in terms of loss of lives and, to some extent, economic damage. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic impact of pandemics, global health crises |
| JEL: | E43 F41 N10 N30 N40 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2123&r= |
| By: | Montalvo, Jose G; Reynal-Querol, Marta |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we document the long-run impact of the geographical heterogeneity in skills among the first settlers to Latin America. To this end, we compile administrative data on the early settlers in the Americas between 1492 and 1540 including, among others, name, city of origin, destination, and occupation. From a methodological perspective, a focus on the initial period of colonization in Latin America offers several advantages. First, differences in the geographical distribution of occupations among the first settlers are likely to be accidental. Second, a set-up that analyzes an area with a single colonizer (Spain) allows to hold constant formal institutions and legal origin. Our results show a relevant effect of the skills of first colonizers on long-run levels of development of the areas located around the original settlements. We find evidence of persistence in the form of market orientation and entrepreneurial spirit. |
| Keywords: | Development; Early Settlers; entrepreneurship; Persistence; skills |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15020&r= |
| By: | Bernardo Candia; Mathieu Pedemonte |
| Abstract: | Flexible exchange rates can facilitate price adjustments that buffer macroeconomic shocks. We test this hypothesis using adjustments to the gold standard during the Great Depression. Using prices at the goods level, we estimate exchange rate pass-through and find gains in competitiveness after a depreciation. Using novel monthly data on city-level economic activity, combined with employment composition and sectoral export data, we show that American exporting cities were significantly affected by changes in bilateral exchange rates. They were negatively impacted when the UK abandoned the gold standard in 1931 and benefited when the US left the gold standard in April 1933. We show that the gold standard deepened the Great Depression, and abandoning it was a key driver of the economic recovery. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regime; currency unions; export-led growth; Great Depression; gold standard |
| JEL: | E32 F45 N12 |
| Date: | 2020–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:92067&r= |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Kattan, Lamis (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of male casualties due to World War II on fertility and female employment in the United States. We rely on the number of casualties at the county-level and use a difference-in-differences strategy. While most counties in the U.S. experienced a Baby Boom following the war, we find that the increase in fertility was lower in high-casualty rate counties than in low-casualty rate counties. Analyzing the channels through which male casualties could have decreased fertility, we provide evidence that county male casualties are positively related to 1950s female employment and household income. |
| Keywords: | baby boom, fertility, female labor supply, World War II |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J24 N3 N4 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14410&r= |
| By: | Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This study revisits the trade and welfare effects of 19th century bilateralism exploiting the latest developments in structural gravity models, including the consideration of domestic trade. Using bilateral trade data between 1855 and 1875, I show that the Cobden-Chevalier network, i.e. a system of bilateral trade agreements including the Most Favored Nation clause, had large, positive and significant effects on members’ trade. These, however, were heterogeneous at the treaty-level. I then calculate its general equilibrium effects on total trade and welfare. They are considerable, while trade diversion effects are negligible. These results reshape the understanding of the Cobden-Chevalier network, helping in further rationalizing the “free trade epidemic” of the 1860s and 1870s. |
| Keywords: | international trade, trade agreements, MFN, Cobden-Chevalier, structural gravity models |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 N30 N70 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2122&r= |
| By: | Molinder, Jakob (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Karlsson, Tobias (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Enflo, Kerstin (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests if a strong labor movement leads to fewer industrial conflicts. The focus is on Sweden between the first general election in 1919 and the famous Saltsjöbaden Agreement in 1938, a formative period when the country transitioned from fierce labor conflicts to a state of industrial peace. Using panel data techniques to analyze more than 2,000 strikes in 103 Swedish towns, we find that a shift of municipal political majority towards the Social Democrats led to a significant decline in local strike activity, but only in towns where union presence was strong. The strike-reducing mechanism is related to corporatist explanations rather than increased social spending in municipal budgets. |
| Keywords: | power resource theory; industrial conflicts; strikes; labor markets; local politics |
| JEL: | H53 J51 N34 N44 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0222&r= |
| By: | Adena, Maja; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Voth, Hans-Joachim |
| Abstract: | Can bombs and broadcasts instigate resistance against a foreign regime? In this paper, we examine the canonical case of bombing designed to undermine enemy morale-the Allied bomber offensive against Germany during World War II. Our evidence shows that air power and the airwaves indeed undermined regime support. We collect data on treason trials and combine it with information on the bombing of over 900 German towns and cities. Using plausibly exogenous variation in weather, we show that places that suffered more bombardment saw noticeably more opposition. Bombing also reduced the combat motivation of soldiers: fighter pilots from bombed-out cities performed markedly less well after raids. We also provide evidence that exposure to BBC radio, especially together with bombing, increased the number of resistance cases. We corroborate these findings with the evidence on people's opinions and behavior using unique survey data collected in 1945. |
| Keywords: | Media,BBC,bombing,resistance,WWII |
| JEL: | D74 L82 N44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2021301&r= |
| By: | Fenske, James; Gupta, Bishnupriya; Yuan, Song |
| Abstract: | How did the 1918 influenza pandemic affect female labor force participation in India over the short run and the medium run? We use an event-study approach at the district level and four waves of decadal census data in order to answer this question. We find that districts most adversely affected by influenza mortality saw a temporary increase in female labor force participation in 1921, an increase that was concentrated in the service sector. By 1931, this increase had been reversed. We find suggestive evidence that distress labor supply by widows and rising wages help account for these results. |
| Keywords: | Cultural norms; Demographic shocks; Female Labour Force Participation |
| JEL: | J11 J21 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15077&r= |
| By: | Combes, Pierre-Philippe (GATE, University of Lyon); Gobillon, Laurent (Paris School of Economics); Zylberberg, Yanos (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | A recent literature has used a historical perspective to better understand fundamental questions of urban economics. However, a wide range of historical documents of exceptional quality remain underutilised: their use has been hampered by their original format or by the massive amount of information to be recovered. In this paper, we describe how and when the flexibility and predictive power of machine learning can help researchers exploit the potential of these historical documents. We first discuss how important questions of urban economics rely on the analysis of historical data sources and the challenges associated with transcription and harmonisation of such data. We then explain how machine learning approaches may address some of these challenges and we discuss possible applications. |
| Keywords: | machine learning, history, urban economics |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R14 N90 C45 C81 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14392&r= |
| By: | Kennedy, Tomas (University of Technology, Sydney); Siminski, Peter (University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We conduct the first dedicated study of absolute income mobility in Australia, for 1950-2019. About two-thirds of 30-34 year-olds have higher real incomes than their parents did at the same age, and this has been stable for 25 years. This is among the highest levels of absolute mobility in the world. Nevertheless, mobility was considerably higher for baby-boomers (over 80% had higher incomes than their parents). About two-thirds of this decline in mobility is due to lower income growth. The remainder is due to rising inequality. The mobility estimate is higher (78%) when income is adjusted (equivalised) for family size. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, absolute mobility, Australia |
| JEL: | D31 H00 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14417&r= |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda |
| Abstract: | Estimated labor force participation rates among free women in the pre-Civil War period were exceedingly low. This is due, in part, to cultural or societal expectations of the role of women and the lack of thorough enumeration by Census takers. This paper develops an augmented labor force participation rate for free women in 1860 and compares it with the augmented rate for 1920 and today. Our methodology identifies women who are likely providing informal and unenumerated labor for market production in support of a family business, that is, unreported family workers. These individuals are not coded in the original data as formally working, but are likely to be engaged in the labor force on the basis of the self-employment of other relatives in their household. Unreported family workers are classified into four categories: farm, merchant, craft, and boardinghouse keepers. Using microdata, the inclusion of these workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census from 16 percent to 57 percent, more than doubles the participation rate in the 1920 Census from 24 percent to 50 percent, and has a trivial effect on the currently measured rate of 56 percent (2015-2019 American Community Survey). This suggests that rather than a steep rise from a very low level in the female labor force participation rate since 1860, it has in fact always been high and fairly stable over time. In contrast, the effect of including unreported family workers in the male augmented labor force participation rate is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | Women,Labor Force Participation,Unreported Family Workers,Occupational Status,Unpaid Workers,Self-Employment,1860 Census,1920 Census,American Community Survey |
| JEL: | N31 J16 J21 J82 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:857&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Andrea Cornia |
| Abstract: | Most analysts of the Latin American economy believe in the unavoidable persistence of high income and wealth inequality in the region due to a continued structural dependence on primary commodities, the lingering effects of colonial policies, and the emergence of a modernized version of the traditional elites. This paper challenges this view on political economic grounds. It argues that the changes observed over the last one hundred and fifty years in the political orientation of governments affected the nature of economic and social policies that, in their turn, influenced the level of income inequality, both upward and downward. In other words, the evolution of inequality has depended to a considerable extent on ideological and political changes that need to be fully understood. This paper tries to explore this circular relation between `political orientation' of governments and `inequality', and between ‘endogenous changes in economic/social conditions' and `changes in the political orientation of governments'. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_12.rdf&r= |
| By: | Pierre-Philippe Combes (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laurent Gobillon (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yanos Zylberberg (University of Bristol [Bristol]) |
| Abstract: | A recent literature has used a historical perspective to better understand fundamental questions of urban economics. However, a wide range of historical documents of exceptional quality remain underutilised: their use has been hampered by their original format or by the massive amount of information to be recovered. In this paper, we describe how and when the flexibility and predictive power of machine learning can help researchers exploit the potential of these historical documents. We first discuss how important questions of urban economics rely on the analysis of historical data sources and the challenges associated with transcription and harmonisation of such data. We then explain how machine learning approaches may address some of these challenges and we discuss possible applications. |
| Keywords: | urban economics,history,machine learning |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03231786&r= |
| By: | Davide Bernardi (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Roberto Ricciuti (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | The revaluation of the Lira against the Pound, the so-called ‘quota 90’, was a major economic policy decision taken by the Fascist government in 1926. The economic history literature has seen this policy as the domestic implementation of the return to the Gold Exchange Standard characterizing the interwar period, with relatively limited economic consequences. We interpret the effects of this decision through an Error Correction Model and find that the economic cost in terms of output was limited. We claim that the main reason for this muted effect lied in a labor market that Fascist reforms tilted in favor of the firms. |
| Keywords: | Quota 90, Fascism, fascist economic policy, fixed exchange regime, Italy. |
| JEL: | N14 E52 C32 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:09/2021&r= |
| By: | Vu, Trung V. |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes that the worldwide distribution of political instability has its deep historical roots in genetic diversity, predetermined over the prehistoric course of the exodus of Homo sapiens from East Africa tens of thousands of years ago. It proposes that the relationship between prehistorically determined genetic diversity and contemporary political instability follows a U-shaped pattern. More specifically, genetic diversity at first reduces the persistence of political instability by increasing the opportunity cost of engaging in riots and revolts. However, genetically fragmented societies tend to suffer from interpersonal mistrust and the under-provision of public goods, which plausibly undermine the establishment of politically stable regimes. Using an ancestry-adjusted index of predicted genetic diversity, this paper consistently finds precise estimates that genetic diversity imparts a U-shaped influence on different measures of political instability and the probability of observing the occurrence of riots and revolts across 141 countries. Furthermore, the contribution of genetic diversity to political instability is at least partially mediated through income/productivity levels, the provision of public goods, income inequality and social trust. |
| Keywords: | genetic diversity,fractionalization,political instability,riots,conflict |
| JEL: | E02 F50 N30 O11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:234467&r= |
| By: | Chae, Minhee (Australian National University); Hatton, Tim (Australian National University); Meng, Xin (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the changing trend of adult height in China for cohorts born in 1950-90. We use information on the household structure and local economic conditions during the individual's childhood to explain the trend. We find that during the 40-year period, the growth rate of adult height increased, with the most substantial increase occurring in the 1980s. One important contributing factor to the growth of adult height is the continued increase in government per capita spending on health and education. The impressive growth in the 1980s was mainly due to the introduction of market-oriented economic reforms, rather than the advent of the One-Child Policy. We find that the positive effect of economic reforms was larger for urban dwellers than for their rural counterparts and within the rural areas the benefit was far greater for men than for women. |
| Keywords: | height, China, economic reform |
| JEL: | I15 I18 J13 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14414&r= |
| By: | Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. We assemble the first comprehensive long-run dataset of official international lending, covering 230,000 loans, grants and guarantees extended by governments, central banks, and multilateral institutions in the period 1790-2015. Historically, wars have been the main catalyst of government-to-government transfers. The scale of official credits granted in and around WW1 and WW2 was particularly large, easily surpassing the scale of total international bailout lending after the 2008 crash. During peacetime, development finance and financial crises are the main drivers of official cross-border finance, with official flows often stepping in when private flows retrench. In line with the predictions of recent theoretical contributions, we find that official lending increases with the degree of economic integration. In crises and disasters, governments help those countries to which they have greater trade and banking exposure, hoping to reduce the collateral damage to their own economies. Since the 2000s, official finance has made a sharp comeback, largely due to the rise of China as an international creditor and the return of central bank cross-border lending in times of stress, this time in the form of swap lines. |
| Keywords: | bail-outs; disaster response; global financial safety net; International Capital Flows |
| JEL: | E42 F33 F34 F35 F36 G01 G20 N1 N2 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14902&r= |
| By: | Ellison, Martin; Lee, Sang Seok; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj |
| Abstract: | How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal. |
| Keywords: | gold standard; Great Depression; inflationary expectations |
| JEL: | F33 N10 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15061&r= |
| By: | Esteves, Rui (International Economics and International History Departments, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Kenny, Seán (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Lennard, Jason (Department of Economic History, London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Default is as old as sovereign debt. Since 1820, countries that issued sovereign debt have spent 18% of time in a state of default. Despite the scale of the problem, the causes and consequences of defaults are still imperfectly understood. In this paper we quantify the aggregate costof defaults, based on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870and 2010. Since defaults are endogenousto the business cycle, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous debt crises. Our estimatesyield significant and persistent costsof defaults starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at3.3% before reverting to trend five years after a debt event. Moreover, weidentify a large heterogeneity of costs by the cause of default. Higher costs are associated with defaults initiated bynegative supply shocks, political crises,or adverse terms of trade. In contrast, domestic demand shocks have a moderate effect, quickly reversed. Despite working with a large sample, we document how average estimates of default costs can be sensitive to different dating and definitions of defaults. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; narrative approach; sovereign debt crises |
| JEL: | E32 F34 F41 G01 H63 N10 N20 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0221&r= |
| By: | Keller, Wolfgang; Shiue, Carol H |
| Abstract: | The First Opium War (1840-42) was a watershed in the history of China. In its aftermath Britain and other countries forced open new ports to foreign trade through international treaties. Chinese institutions of trade were abolished and re-organized under Western management, Western legal institutions were introduced in China in form of courts and legal practices, and foreigners in China were tried according to the laws of their country of origin (extraterritoriality). To better understand the implications of these changes during the Treaty Port Era (1842-1943), we begin by discussing the attitudes towards foreign trade before 1840 for both China and the West. Drawing on information from the foreign-led Chinese Maritime Customs organization, we provide a synopsis of China's foreign trade and investment both in terms of patterns and volumes. The paper highlights the link between foreign and domestic trade as well as the important role of new, previously not traded goods for welfare. Employing several outcome measures, we show that Western influence generated significant benefits to China's economy, and the results suggest that the geographic scope of these benefits reached into areas far beyond the treaty ports. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15090&r= |
| By: | Kowalczyk, Stanisław; Kwasek, Mariola |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the position of agriculture in the economy at various levels of economic development and in various schools of economic theory. The complexity of the analyzed area is a consequence of the fact that agriculture is one of the first forms of conscious and organized human activity. Its importance for society and economy results from the main goal of this activity, which is to satisfy the basic human need, the need to satisfy hunger. The study depicts three basic perspectives from which agriculture is presented in economic theory: (i) relations between agriculture and other sectors of the economy, (ii) the main forces shaping the mechanism of changes and the development of agriculture, and (iii) basic directions (paths) taking place in a time of changes in agriculture. In the second part of the paper, one of the three main perspectives illustrating the position of agriculture in the economy and in the theory of economics, i.e., the relations between agriculture and other sectors of the economy, was subject to empirical verification. The assessment was carried out on the example of Polish agriculture and its evolution over time. The analysis covers the changes that occurred after 1950 in areas such as the potential of agriculture in the economy (land, labor, and capital resources), the contribution of agriculture to creating added value (GNI/GDP), agricultural production, participation in foreign trade and changes in food consumption. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:311268&r= |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Barr, Jason |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a synthesis of the state of knowledge on the economics of skyscrapers. First, we document how vertical urban growth has gained pace over the course of the 20th century. Second, we lay out a simple theoretical model of optimal building heights in a competitive market to rationalize this trend. Third, we provide estimates of a range of parameters that shape the urban height profile along with a summary of the related theoretical and empirical literature. Fourth, we discuss factors outside the competitive market framework that explain the rich variation in building height over short distances, such as durability of the structures, height competition, and building regulations. Fifth, we suggest priority areas for future research into the vertical dimension of cities. |
| Keywords: | density; economics; History; skyscraper; urban |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14987&r= |
| By: | Frank Veneroso |
| Abstract: | According to Frank Veneroso, a broad subset of today's US stock market has become what he calls a "pure price-chasing bubble." Examination of the history of comparable pure price-chasing bubbles shows there has been a set of key causal factors that contributed to these rare market events. The most extreme such case was an over-the-counter market in Kuwait called the "Souk al-Manakh." This exemplar of a pure price-chasing phenomenon may shed light--albeit unflattering--on the current US equity market, Veneroso contends. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levyop:op_66&r= |
| By: | Tanweer Akram |
| Abstract: | There are several widely used benchmark models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance. However, these models have yet to incorporate Keynes's valuable insights about interest rate dynamics. The Keynesian approach to interest rate dynamics can be readily incorporated in the benchmark models of the long-term interest rate. This paper modifies several benchmark interest rate models. In these modified models the long-term interest rate is related to the short-term interest rate and a Wiener process. The Keynesian approach to interest rate dynamics can be useful in addressing theoretical and policy issues. |
| Keywords: | Long-Term Interest Rate; Bond Yields; Monetary Policy; Short-Term Interest Rate; John Maynard Keynes |
| JEL: | E12 E43 E50 E58 E60 G10 G12 G41 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_988&r= |
| By: | Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo |
| Abstract: | Este ano recorre el aniversario de la Constitución del 1991. Los profesores de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y los investigadores del CID fueron invitados a escribir sobre las consecuencias económicas de la Carta, con libertad de coautoría, enfoque teórico y metodología. Las contribuciones salieron publicadas por el diario El Espectador. *** ***This year marks the anniversary of the 1991 Constitution. Professors of the School of Economics and researchers of the CID were invited to write about its economic consequences, with freedom of co-authorship, theoretical approach and methodology. The contributions were published in the newspaper El Espectador. |
| Keywords: | constitución; control fiscal; estabilidad monetaria; salud; voz; política fiscal; política monetaria; igualdad de género; eficiencia agrícola; descentralización |
| JEL: | J16 H55 E58 E63 H51 M48 H77 D74 N56 |
| Date: | 2021–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000426:019266&r= |
| By: | Maria Winkler-Dworak; Eva Beaujouan; Paola Di Giulio; Martin Spielauer |
| Abstract: | Family patterns in Western countries have substantially changed across the 1940 to 1990 birth cohorts. Adults born more recently enter more often unmarried cohabitations and marry later, if at all. They have children later and fewer of them; births take place in a non-marital union more often and, due to the declining stability of couple relationships, in more than one partnership. These changes have led to an increasing diversity in family life courses. In this paper, we present a microsimulation model of family life trajectories, which models the changing family patterns taking into account the complex interrelationships between childbearing and partnership processes. The microsimulation model is parameterized to retrospective data for women born since 1940 in Italy, Great Britain and two Nordic countries (Norway and Sweden), representing three significantly different cultural and institutional contexts of partnering and childbearing in Europe. Validation of the simulated family life courses against their real-world equivalents shows that the simulations not only closely replicate observed childbearing and partnership processes, but also give good predictions when compared to more recent fertility indicators. We conclude that the presented microsimulation model is suitable for exploring changing family dynamics and outline potential research questions and further applications. |
| Keywords: | Family life course, fertility, partnerships, microsimulation, Italy, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vid:wpaper:1908&r= |
| By: | José Pedro Pontes |
| Abstract: | We describe formally the relationship between population density and per capita income along the two growth regimes put forward by KUZNETS (1960), BOSERUP (1965) and TAMURA (2002). We consider a spatial economy where an undifferentiated consumer good is produced by a continuum of competitive agents. Each agent requires one unit of a capital good to produce the final good and the two goods are assumed to be perfect substitutes in production. Under the first growth regime (called “classical” or “Malthusian”), each agent self-produces the capital good by shifting resources that would otherwise produce one unit of the final good. This economy shows marginal decreasing returns of labour. Population growth brings about congestion and the elasticity of output per worker (and income per capita) is negative. A structural change takes place following a sufficient increase in population density and decrease in transport costs. Then, the supply of capital goods is outsourced to a specialized industry, operating in spatial monopolistic competition in line with SALOP (1979). Under this “modern” growth regime, the specialization of the capital goods production is a source of increasing returns in the aggregate economy. The elasticity of per capita income with respect to population density becomes positive just after the structural transition, but this effect may not persist in the long run. If the outsourcing of capital goods is matched by a rising importance in final production of activities which are not land-based, then aggregate increasing returns can be sustained in the long run. Otherwise, the positive sign of elasticity will be transitory and a further increase in population density will revert the economy to a situation where the use of increasing amounts of labour with non-reproducible resources determines mainly a congestion effect. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Population Density, Industrialization, Spatial Competition, Technological Change, Economies of Agglomeration. |
| JEL: | O12 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01782021&r= |
| By: | Mariano Fernández |
| Abstract: | Abstracto Este documento analiza el resultado de algunos programas de estabilización de precios, clasificados en la literatura como Exchange Rate Based Stabilization (ERBS) y Money Based Stabilization (MBS) a la luz de su carácter temporal. Para ello se desarrolla un marco conceptual teórico que permite diferenciar a cada programa y establecer bajo cuales condiciones se los permite clasificar en transitorios y permanentes. A partir de allí, se estudian las particularidades que los diferencian entre sí, y se arriba a conclusiones que están alineadas al consenso teórico de esta literatura. El artículo se focaliza primordialmente en los programas de estabilización de Argentina desde el inicio de la década de 1960. Abstract This paper analyzes the results of some price stabilization programs classified in the literature as Exchange Rate Based Stabilization (ERBS) and Money Based Stabilization (MBS) in connection to their temporary nature for this, a theoretical and analytical framework is developed that allows differentiating each type of program and establishing under what conditions they are allowed to be classified as temporary and permanent. From that point on, their main characteristics are studied and conclusions are reached that are aligned with the theoretical consensus of this literature. The paper focuses primarily on stabilization programs in Argentina since early 1960s. |
| Keywords: | INFLACION, DESINFLACION, ESTABILIZACION, TEMPORARIO, PERMANENTE. |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E52 E58 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:792&r= |
| By: | Hasan, Lubna |
| Abstract: | This paper critically reviews Garrett Hardin’s “The Tragedy of the Commons”. Hardin’s thesis about the impossibility of collective action for achieving mutually beneficial outcomes in a group setting has divided the scholarly community since its publication in 1968, while its most perennial object being the communal management of resources, which was banned on account of being inherently inefficient. This paper argues that much of the criticism against common property regimes stems from incorrect modeling of a common property situation, and misunderstandings about the terms and their wrong usage. Specifically, models of collective action - in particular, Hardin’s tragedy of the Commons, but also Olson’s Logic of Collective Action, and the Prisoner’s Dilemma, which is used as a critique against common property regimes, are not based on an accurate depiction of reality and many of their assumptions are untrue. The purpose is to drive home the point that common property regimes are not inherently inferior types of regimes; and causes of success, and of failures, of these regimes lie elsewhere. Secondly, both public [and also private] management of natural resources has not had universal success. It is time to think out of the usual ‘either public or private’ dichotomy. Combining elements of both public and communal management in a pragmatic way is necessary. It is time to give co-management a serious thought. |
| Keywords: | Natural Resource Management, Property Institutions, Co-management of Resources. |
| JEL: | P14 Q2 |
| Date: | 2020–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108210&r= |
| By: | 森口, 千晶 |
| Abstract: | 政府が高等教育に投じることができる資源が限られているなか、その資源を有効かつ公平に配分するためには、どのような方法で入学者を選抜すべきなのか。本研究では、明治後期から昭和初期にかけての官立高等教育（旧制高等学校・帝国大学）の入学者選抜制度の変遷に光を当て、どのような目的で選抜制度が設計され、実装されたのかを、経済学のマッチング理論の観点から考察する。さらに、当時および現在に利用可能なデータを用いて、度重なる制度改革の際に争われた論点は実証的にみてどの程度正しかったのか、当時の政策設計はどの程度エビデンスに基づいて立案されていたのかを検証する。, When the government has limited resources for higher education, what is an effective and equitable way to allocate school seats to students? In this study, we focus on a series of admission procedure reforms for national higher education in Japan during the first three decades of the twentieth century. First, we examine how the admission mechanisms were designed and implemented from a perspective of matching theory in economics. Next, using contemporaneous as well as subsequently available data, we investigate whether the points of contention in the repeated reforms were empirically valid and to what extent these policy designs were based on empirical evidence. |
| Keywords: | 学校選択, 能力主義, マッチング・アルゴリズム, 教育格差, 階層移動, School Choice, Meritocracy, Matching Algorithm, Educational Disparity, Social Mobility |
| JEL: | D02 I23 I28 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Crafts, Nicholas (University of Sussex and CAGE, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | In 1930 Keynes opined that by 2030 people would work only 15 hours per week. As such, this prediction will not be realised. However, expected lifetime hours of leisure and non-market work in the UK rose by 60 per cent between 1931 and 2011, considerably more than Keynes would have expected. This reflects increases in life expectancy at older ages and much longer expected periods of retirement. Leisure in retirement contributes to high life satisfaction for the elderly but building up savings to pay for it is a barrier to working only 15 hours per week. |
| Keywords: | Leisure ; Life Expectancy ; Retirement ; Work JEL Classification: J22 ; J26 ; N34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1360&r= |