nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒05‒31
fifty-five papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. The Long Shadow of the Spanish Civil War By Tur-Prats, Ana; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
  2. Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent findings from historical national accounting By Stephen Broadberry
  3. The Economic Impact of the Black Death By Jedwab, Remi; Johnson, Noel; Koyama, Mark
  4. The Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting By Broadberry, Stephen N
  5. Engineering Growth By Maloney, William F; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
  6. Lessons from early central banking for today By Bindseil, Ulrich
  7. Unreal wages? Real income and economic growth in England, 1260-1850 By Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob
  8. The Race between Population and Technology: Real wages in the First Industrial Revolution By Crafts, Nicholas; Mills, Terence C
  9. Cash Crops, Print Technologies and the Politicization of Ethnicity in Africa By Pengl, Yannick; Roessler, Philip; Rueda, Valeria
  10. Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948-2020 By Amory Gethin; Clara Martínez-Toledano; Thomas Piketty
  11. A dilemma between liquidity regulation and monetary policy: some history and theory By Monnet, Eric; Vari, Miklos
  12. On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems in Soviet Russia, 1897-1989 By KUMO, Kazuhiro; SHADRINA, Elena
  13. Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily By Lax-Martinez, Gema; Rohner, Dominic; Saia, Alessandro
  14. "The Eyes and Ears of the Agricultural Markets": A History of Information in Interwar Agricultural Economics By Thomas Delcey; Guillaume Noblet
  15. Globalization and Nationalism: Retrospect and Prospect By Obstfeld, Maurice
  16. Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885-2008 By Broadberry, Stephen N; Gardner, Leigh
  17. Forecasting Output Growth of Advanced Economies Over Eight Centuries: The Role of Gold Market Volatility as a Proxy of Global Uncertainty By Afees A. Salisu; Rangan Gupta; Sayar Karmakar; Sonali Das
  18. The changing geography of social mobility in the United States By Connor, Dylan Shane; Storper, Michael
  19. Froebel's gifts: how the kindergarten movement changed the american family By Ager, Philipp; Cinnirella, Francesco
  20. A discussion regarding the economic and legal rights of women in Classical Athens (508-323 BCE) By Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros
  21. International Migration Responses to Natural Disasters: Evidence from Modern Europe's Deadliest Earthquake By Spitzer, Yannay; Tortorici, Gaspare; Zimran, Ariell
  22. Free Banking in Sweden: The Case of Private Bank Notes, 1831-1902 By Jonung, Lars
  23. Is there a Refugee Gap? Evidence from Over a Century of Danish Naturalizations By Boberg-Fazlic, Nina; Sharp, Paul
  24. "Agricultural products" and "fishery products" in the GATT and WTO: A history of relevant discussions on product scope during negotiations By Pene, Cédric; Zhu, Xiaolu
  25. Historical Econometrics: Instrumental Variables and Regression Discontinuity Designs By Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
  26. How the West is Underdeveloping Itself By Samaha, Amal
  27. Resource Rent, Environment and Ethics in Norwegian Petroleum Policy By Hunnes, John A.; Honningdal Grytten, Ola
  28. World War II, the Baby Boom and Employment: County Level Evidence By Abel Brodeur; Lamis Kattan
  29. Good Reverberation? Teacher Influence in Music Composition since 1450 By Borowiecki, Karol Jan
  30. The Fractured-Land Hypothesis By Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Koyama, Mark; Lin, Youhong; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
  31. Capital and Economic Growth in Britain, 1270-1870: Preliminary Findings By Stephen Broadberry; Alexandra M. de Pleijt
  32. From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation during the Great Migration By Fouka, Vasiliki; Mazumder, Soumyajit; Tabellini, Marco
  33. Populism and the First Wave of Globalization: Evidence from the 1892 US Presidential Election By Klein, Alexander; Persson, Karl Gunnar; Sharp, Paul
  34. Suburbanization in the United States 1970-2010 By Stephen J. Redding
  35. Under the shadow of violence: slow genocide of the Banyamulenge in Eastern DRC By Ntanyoma, R.D.
  36. What are the Health Benefits of a Constant Water Supply? Evidence from London, 1860-1910 By Troesken, Werner; Tynan, Nicola; Yang, Yuanxiaoyue
  37. Religious Festivals and Economic Development: Evidence from Catholic Saint Day Festivals in Mexico By Eduardo Montero; Dean Yang
  38. Lectures on the Theory of Competitive Equilibrium By Arrow, Kenneth J
  39. Poverty, pollution, and mortality: The 1918 influenza pandemic in a developing German economy By Franke, Richard
  40. Do changes in material circumstances drive support for populist radical parties? Panel data evidence from the Netherlands during the Great Recession, 2007–2015 By Gidron, Noam; Mijs, Jonathan J.B
  41. 50 years of capital mobility in the Eurozone: breaking the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle By Mariam Camarero; Alejandro Munoz; Cecilio Tamarit
  42. Culture, Institutions and Policy By Persson, Torsten; Tabellini, Guido
  43. Byzantine Economic Growth: Did Climate Change Play a Role? By Lambert, Thomas
  44. Nepotism vs. Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital in Academia (1088--1800) By de la Croix, David; Goñi, Marc
  45. Sexual debut and dating of university students in low fertility societies: Italy and Japan By Ryohei Mogi; Daniele Vignoli
  46. Mutualité et capitalisme entre 1789 et 1947 : de la subversion à l'intégration By Nicolas da Silva
  48. Heterogeneous Impacts of School Fee Elimination in Tanzania: Gender and Colonial Infrastructure By Roxana Elena Manea; Pedro Naso
  49. The Dynamics and Spillovers of Management Interventions: Evidence from the Training Within Industry Program By Nicola Bianchi; Michela Giorcelli
  50. Information Cascades and Social Learning By Bikhchandani, Sushil; Hirshleifer, David; Tamuz, Omer; Welch, Ivo
  51. Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: Twenty Years After By Maliar, Lilia; Maliar, Serguei; Tsener, Inna
  52. Zentralbankpolitik: Einst und jetzt By Issing, Otmar
  53. The Long-run Effects of Housingon Well-Being By Andrew E. Clark; Luis Diaz-Serrano
  54. Resurgence of transition economics: Brexit as an expected example, experience and lesson By Matoshi, Ruzhdi; Mulaj, Isa
  55. The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic By Tsoulfidis, Lefteris; Tsaliki, Persefoni

  1. By: Tur-Prats, Ana; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
    Abstract: The Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) was one of the most devastating conflicts of the twentieth century, yet little is known about its long-term legacy. We show that the war had a long-lasting effect on social capital, voting behavior and collective memory. To this end we use geo-located data on historical mass graves, disaggregated modern-day survey data on trust, combined with modern electoral results. For econometric identification, we exploit deviations from the initial military plans of attack, using the historical (1931) highway network. We also employ a geographical Regression Discontinuity Design along the Aragon Front. Our results show a significant, negative and sizable relationship between political violence and generalized trust. We further scrutinize the trust results, finding negative effects of conflict on trust in institutions associated with the Civil War, but no effects when looking at trust on Post 1975 democratic institutions. We also find long-lasting results on voting during the Democratic Period (1977-2016), corresponding to the sided political repression implemented in the Aragon region. In terms of mechanisms-using a specialized survey on the Civil War, street names data and Francoist newsreels about the war-we find lower levels of political engagement and differential patterns of collective memory about this traumatic historical event.
    Keywords: Civil War; Collective Memory; conflict; History; Political Propaganda; Political Repression; Spain; Trust; voting
    JEL: D72 D74 N14 Z10
    Date: 2020–07
  2. By: Stephen Broadberry
    Abstract: As a result of recent work on historical national accounting, it is now possible to establish more firmly the timing of the Great Divergence of living standards between Europe and Asia in the eighteenth century. There was a European Little Divergence as Britain and the Netherlands overtook Italy and Spain, and an Asian Little Divergence as Japan overtook China and India. The Great Divergence occurred because Japan grew more slowly than Britain and the Netherlands starting from a lower level, and because of a strong negative growth trend in Qing dynasty China. A growth accounting framework is used to assess the contributions of labour, human and physical capital, land and total factor productivity. In addition to these proximate sources, the roles of institutions and geography are examined as the ultimate sources of the divergent growth patterns.
    Keywords: Great Divergence; living standards; measurement; explanation
    JEL: N10 N30 N35 O10 O57
    Date: 2021–03–17
  3. By: Jedwab, Remi; Johnson, Noel; Koyama, Mark
    Abstract: The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short-run and the long-run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long-run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe towards the Northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in Western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out
    Keywords: Black Death; Cities; Demography; institutions; Long-run Growth; Malthusian Theory; Pandemics; Urbanization
    JEL: I14 I15 J11 N00 N13 O0 O43
    Date: 2020–08
  4. By: Broadberry, Stephen N
    Abstract: Recent work in historical national accounting is surveyed, focusing on the Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence. Eighteenth century Britain was the first economy to make the transition to modern economic growth, but this breakthrough built on earlier episodes of per capita income growth with declining population in the fourteenth and seventeenth centuries. Between these two episodes, the economy remained on a plateau rather than shrinking back to Malthusian subsistence as population recovered. The crude idea of a modernising Europe forging ahead of a stagnating Asia needs to be modified to take account of regional variation within both continents. The Great Divergence can be dated to the eighteenth century when the leading European region forged ahead of the leading Chinese region. This can also be seen as the culmination of a dynamic process beginning in the fourteenth century, with a reduction in the frequency and rate of shrinking.
    Date: 2020–08
  5. By: Maloney, William F; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
    Abstract: This paper offers the first systematic historical evidence on the role of a central actor in modern growth theory-the engineer. It collects cross-country and state level data on the labor share of engineers for the Americas, and county level data on engineering and patenting for the U.S. during the Second Industrial Revolution. These are robustly correlated with income today after controlling for literacy, other types of higher order human capital (e.g. lawyers, physicians) and demand side factors, as well as after instrumenting engineering using the 1862 Land Grant Colleges program. A one standard deviation increase in engineers in 1880 accounts for 10% higher US county incomes today, while patenting capacity contributes another 10%. To document the mechanisms through which engineering density works, we show how it supported technology adoption and structural transformation across intermediate time periods, and is strongly correlated with numerous measures of the knowledge economy today.
    Keywords: Development; Engineers; growth; History; Human Capital; Innovation; patents; structural transformation; technology diffusion
    JEL: I23 N10 O11 O30
    Date: 2020–08
  6. By: Bindseil, Ulrich
    Abstract: Contrary to popular belief, the history of central banking begins much earlier than 1800. Many current issues of central bank policy can be traced back to the public giro banks of the 15th century, and have been discussed in numerous essays at least since the 17th century. Are the same debates merely repeating themselves in new shapes? And, more importantly, what can we learn today from those first four centuries of central bank history and debates? This paper argues that despite the end of convertibility into precious metal of central bank money, relevant lessons can be derived from early central banking for today, and develops this around five concrete themes.
    JEL: E5 N2
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob
    Abstract: Estimates of historical workers' annual incomes suffer from the fundamental problem that they are inferred from day wage rates without knowing how many days of work day-labourers undertook per year. We circumvent the problem by building an income series based on the payments made to workers employed by the year rather than by the day. Our data suggest that earlier annual income estimates based on day wages overestimate medieval labour incomes but underestimate labour incomes during the Industrial Revolution. Our revised estimates indicate that modern economic growth began more than two centuries earlier than commonly thought and was driven by an 'Industrious Revolution'. They also suggest that the current global downturn in labour's share is not exceptional but fits within the range of historical fluctuations.
    Keywords: England; industrial revolution; real wages; industrious revolution; labour supply; living standards; malthusian model; modern economic growth
    JEL: J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8
    Date: 2019–10–01
  8. By: Crafts, Nicholas; Mills, Terence C
    Abstract: We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4 per cent before 1760 but 1.5 per cent thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.
    Keywords: Epidemic disease; industrial revolution; Malthusian checks; nuptiality; population growth; real wages; technological progress
    JEL: N13 N33
    Date: 2020–08
  9. By: Pengl, Yannick; Roessler, Philip; Rueda, Valeria
    Abstract: What are the origins of the ethnic landscapes in contemporary states? Drawing on a pre-registered research design, we test the impact of dual socioeconomic revolutions that spread across Africa in the 19th and 20th centuries - export agriculture and print technologies. We argue these changes transformed ethnicity via their effects on politicization and boundary-making. Print technologies strengthened imagined communities, leading to more salient yet porous-ethnic identities. Cash crop endowments increased groups' mobilizational potential but with more exclusionary boundaries to control agricultural rents. Using historical data on cash crops and African language publications, we find that groups exposed to these historical forces are more likely to be politically relevant in the post-independence period, and their members report more salient ethnic identities. We observe heterogenous effects on boundary-making as measured by inter-ethnic marriage; relative to cash crops, printing fostered greater openness to assimilate linguistically-related outsiders. Our findings not only illuminate the historical sources of ethnic politicization, but mechanisms shaping boundary formation.
    Keywords: Africa; Agriculture; Colonialism; Ethnicity; Language; Missions
    JEL: N47 N57 O13 O43 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2020–08
  10. By: Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Clara Martínez-Toledano (WIL - World Inequality Lab , Imperial College London); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the long-run evolution of political cleavages in 21 Western democracies by exploiting a new database on the vote by socioeconomic characteristic covering over 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020. In the 1950s-1960s, the vote for democratic, labor, social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise to "multi-elite party systems" in the 2000s-2010s: high-education elites now vote for the "left", while high-income elites continue to vote for the "right". This transition has been accelerated by the rise of green and anti-immigration movements, whose key distinctive feature is to concentrate the votes of the higher-educated and lower-educated electorate, respectively. Combining our database with historical data on political parties' programs, we provide evidence that the reversal of the educational cleavage is strongly linked to the emergence of a new "sociocultural" axis of political conflict. We also discuss the evolution of other political cleavages related to age, geography, religion, gender, and the integration of new ethnoreligious minorities.
    Date: 2021–05
  11. By: Monnet, Eric; Vari, Miklos
    Abstract: History suggests a conflict between current Basel III liquidity ratios and monetary policy, which we call the liquidity regulation dilemma. Although forgotten, liquidity ratios, named "securities-reserve requirements", were widely used historically, but for monetary policy (not regulatory) reasons, as central bankers recognized the contractionary effects of these ratios. We build a model rationalizing historical policies: a tighter ratio reduces the quantity of assets that banks can pledge as collateral, thus increasing interest rates. Tighter liquidity regulation paradoxically increases the need for central bank's interventions. Liquidity ratios were also used to keep yields on government bonds low when monetary policy tightened
    Keywords: Basel III; central bank history; Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR); liquidity ratios; Monetary policy implementation; reserve requirements
    JEL: E43 E52 E58 G28 N10 N20
    Date: 2020–07
  12. By: KUMO, Kazuhiro; SHADRINA, Elena
    Abstract: Hill and Gaddy (2004) argued that Zipf’s law or the rank-size rule was not observed for the urban systems in the Soviet Union. Having incorporated more comprehensive historical data for all cities in the former Soviet Union republics, the authors of this paper present the following findings. First, the Soviet hierarchical urban systems were evolving: in the late Imperial era and early Soviet period, they followed the Zipf’s law prediction, but they diverged from the rank-size rule possibly as a result of the World War II, and yet again they revealed converging to the traditional rank-size distribution trends in the late Soviet period; and second, this evolution was not necessarily the ultimate product of the policies developed by the command-administrative system. This paper confirms the former, although statistical verification of the effects of the Soviet urban policies on the urban hierarchical system in the USSR is the task ahead.
    Keywords: Zipf’s law, rank-size rule, urban hierarchical system, Soviet Union, Russia
    JEL: N93 N94 O18 P25
    Date: 2021–05
  13. By: Lax-Martinez, Gema; Rohner, Dominic; Saia, Alessandro
    Abstract: Taxation may trigger social unrest, as highlighted by historical examples. At the same time, tax incomes could boost state capacity which may in turn foster political stability. Understanding better the a priori ambiguous taxation-turmoil nexus is particularly relevant for low-income countries today -- yet unfortunately any causal evidence on this has been very scarce. We exploit a unique policy experiment in 19th century Sicily to identify with the help of a regression discontinuity design (RDD) the effect of taxation on social unrest. It turns out that it is mostly the threat of taxation that may distort economic investment and ultimately result in higher levels of political turmoil.
    Keywords: conflict; Fiscal; growth; regression discontinuity design; state capacity; taxation; Unrest
    JEL: D74 H20 H26 J10 N43 O10
    Date: 2020–07
  14. By: Thomas Delcey (REHPERE - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Guillaume Noblet (REHPERE - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article offers a historical analysis of the contributions of U.S. interwar agricultural economics to the economics of information. Concerned with improving the circulation of information on agricultural markets, agricultural economists analyzed the relationship between agents' information and the behavior of prices on agricultural commodity exchanges, thus anticipating modern debates on informational efficiency. We show that these debates were part of a more general context of agricultural market reform led by the U.S. administration to improve the production and diffusion of economic information. We argue that such reforms were a prerequisite for theoretical discussions on information, and established institutional tools that are still active today, such as the USDA market news service.
    Date: 2021–05–17
  15. By: Obstfeld, Maurice
    Abstract: Recent events have highlighted areas of conflict between economic integration with the outside world and the demands of domestic electorates. Historically, the tradeoffs have always become sharper in periods of crisis, such as the present. After reviewing the U-shaped progress of globalization since the nineteenth century, this essay reconsiders John Maynard Keynes's views on "national self-sufficiency" in the early 1930s. I argue that the postwar Bretton Woods system he helped to create evolved from those views as a balanced middle ground between market forces and governments' desires for domestic economic stability. The gradual erosion of that balance in favor of the market has helped produce discontent over globalization and more nationalism in politics. Enhanced multilateral cooperation in key areas offers the hope of supporting globalization while better meeting voters' aspirations. Despite daunting political obstacles to global cooperation these days, collective action challenges in areas like climate, cybersecurity, and health â?? alongside economic policy â?? are only becoming more pressing over time.
    Keywords: deglobalization; Globalization; multilateralism; Nationalism; populism
    JEL: F52 F53 F60 N20 N40
    Date: 2020–07
  16. By: Broadberry, Stephen N; Gardner, Leigh
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often absent from discussions of long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight African economies for the period since 1885. Although the growth experienced in most of SSA since the mid-1990s has had historical precedents, there have also been episodes of negative growth or "shrinking", so that long run progress has been limited. Despite some heterogeneity across countries, this must be seen as a disappointing performance for the region as a whole, given the possibilities of catch-up growth, although African performance was not notably worse than other non-western regions before the 1980s. Avoiding episodes of shrinking needs to be given a higher priority in understanding the transition to sustained economic growth.
    Keywords: Africa; economic growth; GDP per capita; shrinking
    JEL: E01 N37 O10
    Date: 2020–08
  17. By: Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa); Sayar Karmakar (Department of Statistics, University of Florida, 230 Newell Drive, Gainesville, FL 32601, USA); Sonali Das (Department of Business Management, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a proxy for global uncertainty based on the volatility of gold market over the annual period of 1311 to 2019, and then use this proxy metric to forecast historical growthrates for eight advance economies namely, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). We find that for the within-sample period, uncertainty negatively impacts output growth, but more importantly, over the out-of-sample period, gold market volatility produces statistically significant forecasting gains. Our findings are robust to an alternative measure of uncertainty based on the volatility of the changes in long-term sovereign real-rates over 1315 to 2019. These historical results have important implications for investors and policymakers in the current context in which high frequency gold price data is available.
    Keywords: Historical output growth, advance economies, gold market volatility, forecasting
    JEL: C22 C53 E32 Q02
    Date: 2021–05
  18. By: Connor, Dylan Shane; Storper, Michael
    Abstract: New evidence shows that intergenerational social mobility-the rate at which children born into poverty climb the income ladder-varies considerably across the United States. Is this current geography of opportunity something new or does it reflect a continuation of long-term trends? We answer this question by constructing data on the levels and determinants of social mobility across American regions over the 20th century. We find that the changing geography of opportunity-generating economic activity restructures the landscape of intergenerational mobility, but factors associated with specific regional structures of interpersonal and racial inequality that have "deep roots" generate persistence. This is evident in the sharp decline in social mobility in the Midwest as economic activity has shifted away from it and the consistently low levels of opportunity in the South even as economic activity has shifted toward it. We conclude that the long-term geography of social mobility can be understood through the deep roots and changing economic fortunes of places.
    Keywords: economic history; geography; inequality; intergenerational mobility; race
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–12–01
  19. By: Ager, Philipp; Cinnirella, Francesco
    Abstract: Public educators and philanthropists in the late 19th century United States promoted the establishment of kindergartens in cities as a remedy for the social problems associated with industrialization and immigration. Between 1880 and 1910, more than seven thousand kindergartens opened their doors in the United States, serving both a social and educational function. We use newly collected city-level data on the roll-out of the first kindergartens to evaluate their impact on household outcomes. We find that in cities with a larger kindergarten exposure, families significantly reduced fertility, with the strongest decline appearing in families that were economically disadvantaged and with an immigrant background. Households reduced fertility because kindergarten attendance increased returns to education, but it also led to higher opportunity costs for raising children. Indeed, we show that children exposed to kindergartens were less likely to work during childhood and, instead, stayed longer in school, had more prestigious jobs, and earned higher wages as adults. Finally, we find that exposure to kindergartens particularly helped immigrant children from non-English-speaking countries to gain English proficiency. Their attendance also generated positive language spillover effects on their mothers, illustrating the importance of early childhood education for the integration of immigrant families.
    Keywords: Family size; Fertility Transition; Kindergarten Education; Quantity-quality trade-off; Returns to Preschool Education
    JEL: I25 J13 N31 O15
    Date: 2020–08
  20. By: Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros
    Abstract: This paper sheds some light to the position of women in Classical Greece regarding their economic and legal rights including property rights and standing in marriage. In essence, the paper cautions against sweeping generalizations about the view of women in Ancient Greece as lower-class citizens and offers a more nuanced view of women.
    Keywords: Women’s economic and legal rights, Classical Athens
    JEL: K40 N0 N20 N23 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2020–03–12
  21. By: Spitzer, Yannay; Tortorici, Gaspare; Zimran, Ariell
    Abstract: The Messina-Reggio Calabria Earthquake (1908) was the deadliest earthquake and arguably the most devastating natural disaster in modern European history. It occurred when overseas mass emigration from southern Italy was at its peak and international borders were open, making emigration a widespread phenomenon and a readily available option for disaster relief. We use this singular event and its unique and important context to study the effects of natural disasters on international migration. Using commune-level data on damage and annual emigration, we find that, despite massive destruction, there is no evidence that the earthquake had, on average, a large impact on emigration or its composition. There were, however, heterogeneous and offsetting responses to the shock, with a more positive effect on emigration in districts where agricultural day laborers comprised a larger share of the labor force, suggesting that attachment to the land was an impediment to reacting to the disaster through migration. Nonetheless, relative to the effects of ordinary shocks, such as a recession in the destination, this momentous event had a small impact on emigration rates. These findings contribute to literatures on climate- and disaster-driven migration and on the Age of Mass Migration.
    Keywords: Age of Mass Migration; Italy; migration; Natural Disasters; Refugees; US Immigration
    JEL: F22 J61 N3 O15 Q54
    Date: 2020–07
  22. By: Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the Swedish record of competition in the supply of bank notes in the 19th century. Between 1831 and 1902, private commercial banks, organized as partnerships with unlimited liability for their owners, issued notes competing with the notes of the Riksbank, the bank owned by the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament. The private banks turned out to be competitive in this market despite several legal obstacles, most notably that private notes were never legal tender – only Riksbank notes were. The private note-issuing banks developed techniques to increase the distribution of their notes. No case of an overissue of notes or of runs by the public on private note banks occurred. No private bank failed to redeem its notes into Riksbank notes. Opinion in the Riksdag remained hostile to private bank notes, reflected in the gradual restriction of the denominations of the notes issued by private banks and in rising taxes on private notes. Eventually, the Riksdag gave its bank, the Riksbank, a monopoly of note issue in Sweden. The evidence from the Swedish experience of free banking suggests that the design of the legal system was the prime explanation for the successful performance of private notes.
    Keywords: Free banking; central banking; private bank notes; unlimited liability; currency competition; Riksbank; Sweden
    JEL: E42 E51 E58 G21 K20 N13 N23
    Date: 2021–05–11
  23. By: Boberg-Fazlic, Nina; Sharp, Paul
    Abstract: The "refugee gap" in the economic status of refugees relative to other migrants might be due to the experience of being a refugee, or to government policy, which often denies the right to work during lengthy application processes. In Denmark before the Second World War, however, refugees were not treated differently from other migrants, motivating our use of a database of the universe of Danish naturalizations between 1851 and 1960. We consider labor market performance and find that immigrants leaving conflicts fared no worse than other migrants, conditional on other characteristics, within this relatively homogenous sample of those who attained citizenship. Refugees must be provided with the same rights as other migrants if policy aims to ensure their economic success.
    Keywords: Asylum Policy; Denmark; Immigration; naturalizations; refugee gap
    JEL: F22 J61 N33 N34
    Date: 2020–08
  24. By: Pene, Cédric; Zhu, Xiaolu
    Abstract: The WTO Agreement on Agriculture applies to those "agricultural products" as defined in its Annex 1. This definition expressly excludes "fish and fish products" from the scope of application of the Agreement. In light of this exclusion, the paper is intended to provide a historical account of the relationship between agricultural products and fishery products in the context of the negotiations leading to and during the GATT period up to the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, and some of its implications for WTO negotiations. The paper reviews documents emanating from past trade negotiations, including minutes and reports of meetings, Members' submissions, draft and final texts from negotiations, as well as background notes by the GATT and WTO Secretariats. The review suggests that the differentiation between agricultural and fishery products dates back to the early days of trade negotiations in the last century, even though the line between them was not consistently drawn in negotiations. Over time, the answer to the question of whether fish and fish products should be separate from agricultural products appears to have evolved with the context in which the question arose, in view of the issues at stake. In addition, the types of measures on which negotiations were focused could also help to explain, to an extent, the separation of fish and fishery products from agricultural products at the end of the Uruguay Round.
    Keywords: agricultural products,fish and fish products (fishery products),protective measures,tariffs,natural resources,GATT negotiations,WTO negotiations
    JEL: F13 F18 N50 Q17
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Valencia Caicedo, Felipe
    Abstract: This chapter surveys the usage of Instrumental Variables (IVs) and Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDDs) in economic history. I document the positive trends of economic history articles employing these methods using three different samples: top 20 journals in economics, top 5 journals in economic history and top five general interest journals in economics from 2000-2020. I detail two broad phases: seminal articles published from 2001 to 2011, and a second wave of studies refining these techniques appearing from 2012 to today (2020). I discuss some methodological refinements that have appeared recently in the econometrics field-in the IV and RDD fronts. I then present a practical guide on regression diagnostics, acknowledging that there are other useful sources of identification available to tackle potential endogeneity issues.
    Keywords: econometrics; economic history; instrumental variables; Regression Discontinuity Designs; survey
    JEL: A33 C1 C26 C36 N01
    Date: 2020–08
  26. By: Samaha, Amal
    Abstract: This essay deals with the history of development discourse, recurring problems, and its present day manifestations. It argues that the deindustrialisation of the core and concomitant hollowing-out of political institutions belies several truisms of development discourse, and that a new "relational" model of development is required. This relational model recognises two distinct forms of development: autogenous (that which requires the exploitation of domestic workers) and parasitic (that which depends on unequal exchange and export specialisation). Finally it is argued that a socialist development programme must be ambivalent to "growth," and instead the core and periphery must pursue different forms of development together.
    Keywords: Development; Growth; Socialism; Underdevelopment; Walter Rodney; Imperialism
    JEL: B24 F19 N1 O1
    Date: 2021–05–13
  27. By: Hunnes, John A. (University of Agder); Honningdal Grytten, Ola (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the understanding of how the environment, ethics, values, and historical contingencies shape public policy. Specifically, it explains the accomplishment of petroleum resource management in Norway. The main argument is that the success of this policy is an understanding of the ethics behind the environmental harvesting of the resource rent of this non-renewable natural resource. The paper firstly describes a model of Ricardian resource rent. Secondly, it investigates the set of values that were in place before the petroleum production started in the 1970s, as described in the influential white paper, “The role of petroleum activities in the Norwegian Society,” published in 1974. In the white paper, the government discussed the future opportunities, challenges, and responsibilities associated with the oil industry and how this would transform society. An important part of the white paper revealed the main ethical vision of the government was to build a “qualitatively better society” for the benefit of the people. Thirdly, the paper traces the historical roots of these values. Finally, the paper concludes that the focus on the natural environment and resource rent management can be attributed to popular values built on historical traditions. According to these, the state and the trust between the state and its citizens played key roles for the formation of the policy.
    Keywords: environment; resource rent; ethics; petroleum; oil; public policy.
    JEL: L52 N14 N50 Q32 Q38 Q58
    Date: 2021–05–14
  28. By: Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa and IZA); Lamis Kattan (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of male casualties due to World War II on fertility and female employment in the United States. We rely on the number of casualties at the county-level and use a difference-in-differences strategy. While most counties in the U.S. experienced a Baby Boom following the war, we find that the increase in fertility was lower in high-casualty rate counties than in low-casualty rate counties. Analyzing the channels through which male casualties could have decreased fertility, we provide evidence that county male casualties are positively related to 1950s female employment and household income.
    Keywords: Baby Boom, Fertility, Female Labor Supply, World War II.
    JEL: J11 J13 J24 N3 N4
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: Teachers and mentors in creative fields ranging from scientific research to the arts may shape their students' skills and views of the craft, and in turn the work they produce. How significant is this influence, how long does it last, and are there consequences for the variety and quality of students' inventive output? We study these questions in the context of Western music composition over five centuries, a historically important cultural institution, and in a setting where composers' musical lineage is well-documented, the content of their work can be directly compared, and its lasting value can be measured. We find strong evidence of influence, document when it arises and persists, and evaluate its consequences. The results provide insight into the production of creative or intellectual output, specifically around questions of where ideas come from, why certain ideas get produced as opposed to others, and what the ramifications might be.
    Keywords: Teacher influence; creativity; cultural transmission; transmission of ideas; music history
    JEL: I21 J24 N30 O31 Z11
    Date: 2021–05–25
  30. By: Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Koyama, Mark; Lin, Youhong; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
    Abstract: Patterns of political unification and fragmentation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that ``fractured land'' was responsible for China's tendency toward political unification and Europe's protracted political fragmentation. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of ``fractured land'' on state formation in Eurasia. We find that either topography or productive land alone is sufficient to account for China's recurring political unification and Europe's persistent political fragmentation. The existence of a core region of high land productivity in Northern China plays a central role in our simulations. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes and assess how robust our findings are.
    Keywords: China; Europe; Great Divergence; Political Centralization; Political Fragmentation; state capacity
    JEL: H56 N40 P48
    Date: 2020–08
  31. By: Stephen Broadberry; Alexandra M. de Pleijt
    Abstract: Estimates of capital formation and the stock of capital in Britain are provided for the period 1270-1870 and used to analyse economic growth. (1) We chart the growing importance of fixed relative to working capital, the declining importance of land and the growth of net overseas assets. (2) Kaldor’s stylised facts of a rising capital-labour ratio and a stationary capital-output ratio are broadly confirmed, but only if attention is confined to fixed capital. (3) Extensive form growth accounts suggest that output growth was driven largely by factor input growth, while intensive form growth accounts suggest that TFP growth was more important than capital deepening in explaining the growth of output per head. (4) The investment share of GDP increased substantially during the transition from pre-industrial to modern economic growth.
    Date: 2021–02–27
  32. By: Fouka, Vasiliki (Stanford University); Mazumder, Soumyajit (Harvard University); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School)
    Abstract: How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the US South to Northern urban centers, which were home to millions of European immigrants arrived in previous decades. We formalize and empirically test the hypothesis that the inflows of Black Americans changed perceptions of outgroup distance among native-born whites, reducing the barriers to the social integration of European immigrants. Predicting Black in-migration with a version of the shift-share instrument, we find that immigrants living in areas that received more Black migrants experienced higher assimilation along a range of outcomes, such as naturalization rates and intermarriages with native-born spouses. Evidence from the historical press and patterns of heterogeneity across immigrant nationalities provide additional support to the role of shifting perceptions of the white majority.
    Keywords: immigration, assimilation, Great Migration, race, group identity
    JEL: J11 J15 N32
    Date: 2021–05
  33. By: Klein, Alexander; Persson, Karl Gunnar; Sharp, Paul
    Abstract: The reasons for the famous agrarian unrest in the United States between 1870 and 1900 remain debated. We argue that they are, at least in part, consistent with a simple economic explanation. Falling transportation costs allowed for the extension of the frontier, where farmers received the world price minus the transaction costs involved in getting their produce to market. Many perceived these costs to be unfairly large, owing to the perceived market power of rail firms and the discriminatory practices of middlemen, with farmers closer to the frontier most affected. Consistent with this, we find that the protest, as measured by vote shares for the Populists in the 1892 Presidential elections, is negatively related to wheat prices, transportation costs, and rail network density.
    Keywords: agriculture; Globalization; Grain Invasion; populism; United States
    JEL: F6 N51 N71
    Date: 2020–07
  34. By: Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: The second half of the twentieth century saw large-scale suburbanization in the United States, with the median share of residents who work in the same county where they live falling from 87 to 71 percent between 1970 and 2000. We introduce a new methodology for discriminating between the three leading explanations for this suburbanization (workplace attractiveness, residence attractiveness and bilateral commuting frictions). This methodology holds in the class of spatial models that are characterized by a structural gravity equation for commuting. We show that the increased openness of counties to commuting is mainly explained by reductions in bilateral commuting frictions, consistent with the expansion of the interstate highway network and the falling real cost of car ownership. We find that changes in workplace attractiveness and residence attractiveness are more important in explaining the observed shift in employment by workplace and employment by residence towards lower densities over time.
    JEL: R12 R30 R40
    Date: 2021–05
  35. By: Ntanyoma, R.D.
    Abstract: The Eastern DRC has, for decades, been experiencing recurring violence originating from several motives and causes. However, colonialism and racial categorization coupled by the reified post-colonial autochthony has left the Banyamulenge identified as “immigrants” and locally stateless as their local chiefdoms were abolished by colonial administrators. Regardless of evidence that the Banyamulenge have settled in what become the Democratic Republic of Congo for centuries, they have been contested and massacred as “non-native”, facing a slow genocide frozen within the complexity of violence in Eastern DRC that followed the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Since the 1960s post-independence violence in DRC, the Banyamulenge have been specifically targeted by Congolese state and non-state actors such as MaiMai and other militias across the Congolese territory and abroad. Banyamulenge’s killings have been preceded by public officials calls dehumanizing the entire community. For a half century, men, young boys, and unarmed military soldiers have constituted the primary target of the perpetrators. The intent to annihilate the Banyamulenge has also resolved to use indirect methods such as besiegement, impoverishment, inhuman treatment while erasing or hiding evidence. The slow annihilation using similar modus operandi for roughly five decades is ideologically linked to 1960s Simba rebellion. Considered by the Mai-Mai and local militias as ‘invaders’, the Banyamulenge have been forced to flee their homeland en masse that largely narrows accessible territories. The remaining Banyamulenge in South Kivu are currently besieged, starved; their villages destroyed; their economy and source of livelihood annihilated. Against this backdrop of the Banyamulenge’s situation, the Eastern DRC complexity of violence and constructed denial arguments overshadow this plight widely reported as tit-for-tat violence opposing armed groups affiliated to ethnic communities or simply as inter-community clashes.
    Date: 2021–05–19
  36. By: Troesken, Werner; Tynan, Nicola; Yang, Yuanxiaoyue
    Abstract: What are the benefits of moving from intermittent water delivery (which limits user access to less than 24 hours per day) to constant service? To address this question, we study the transition from intermittent to constant water supply in London. Between 1871 and 1910, the proportion of London households with access to a constant water supply (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) rose from less than 20 to 100 percent. Idiosyncratic delays in the negotiation process between companies and property owners generated random variation in the timing of the transition across London districts. Exploiting this variation, we find that a one percentage point increase in a local population with access to constant service decreased deaths from waterborne diseases by as much as 0.5 percent and explains approximately a fifth of the late nineteenth century decline in waterborne disease mortality. Results are robust to the inclusion of controls for population density, concerns regarding the reporting of cause-of-death, district-specific time trends, and spatial autocorrelation. In placebo tests, we find no evidence that the extension of constant service affected mortality from non-water borne diseases or deaths from violence.
    Keywords: Water supply; Mortality; London, 19th century; Public health
    JEL: I18 L95 N33 N93 O18
    Date: 2021–05
  37. By: Eduardo Montero; Dean Yang
    Abstract: Societies worldwide spend substantial resources celebrating religious festivals. How do festivals influence economic and social outcomes? We study Catholic patron saint day festivals in Mexico, exploiting two features of the setting: (i) municipal festival dates vary across the calendar and were determined in the early history of towns after Spanish conquest, and (ii) there is considerable variation in the intra-annual timing of agricultural seasons. We compare municipalities with “agriculturally-coinciding” festivals (those that coincide with peak planting or harvest months) to other municipalities, examining differences in long-run economic development and social outcomes. Agriculturally-coinciding festivals have negative effects on household income and other development outcomes. They also lead to lower agricultural productivity and higher share of the labor force in agriculture, consistent with agriculturally-coinciding festivals inhibiting the structural transformation of the economy. Agriculturally-coinciding festivals also lead to higher religiosity and social capital, potentially explaining why such festivals persist in spite of their negative growth consequences.
    JEL: N36 O1 Z12
    Date: 2021–05
  38. By: Arrow, Kenneth J
    Abstract: Summaries by Nobel laureate Kenneth J. Arrow of his 1962 lectures on general equilibrium theory at Northwestern University. These summaries were widely circulated but unpublished. Reissued here, edited with updated notation. With permission of the Arrow family.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Competitive equilibrium, general equilibrium, Brouwer fixed point theorem, Kakutani fixed point theorem, stability of equilibrium
    Date: 2021–05–27
  39. By: Franke, Richard
    Abstract: The paper provides a detailed analysis of excess mortality during the "Spanish Flu" in a developing German economy and the effect of poverty and air pollution on pandemic mortality. The empirical analysis is based on a difference-in-differences approach using annual all-cause mortality statistics at the parish level in the Kingdom of Württemberg. The paper complements the existing literature on urban pandemic severity with comprehensive evidence from mostly rural parishes. The results show that middle and high-income parishes had a significantly lower increase in mortality rates than low-income parishes. Moreover, the mortality rate during the 1918 influenza pandemic was significantly higher in highly polluted parishes compared to least polluted parishes.
    Keywords: Pandemics, Spanish Flu, Income, Air Pollution, Mortality
    JEL: I14 I15 N34 Q53
    Date: 2021
  40. By: Gidron, Noam; Mijs, Jonathan J.B
    Abstract: Political developments since the 2008 financial crisis have sparked renewed interest in the electoral implications of economic downturns. Research describes a correlation between adverse economic conditions and support for radical parties campaigning on the populist promise to retake the country from a corrupt elite. But does the success of radical parties following economic crises rely on people who are directly affected? To answer this question, we examine whether individual-level changes in economic circumstances drive support for radical parties across the ideological divide. Analysing eight waves of panel data collected in the Netherlands, before, during, and after the Great Recession (2007-2015), we demonstrate that people who experienced an income loss became more supportive of the radical left but not of the radical right. Looking at these parties' core concerns, we find that income loss increased support for income redistribution championed by the radical left, but less so for the anti-immigration policies championed by the radical right. Our study establishes more directly than extant research the micro-foundations of support for radical parties across the ideological divide.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–10–01
  41. By: Mariam Camarero (University Jaume I, University of Valencia, University of Valencia); Alejandro Munoz; Cecilio Tamarit
    Abstract: This paper assesses capital mobility for the Eurozone countries by studying the long-run relationship between domestic investment and savings for the period 1970-2019. Our main goal is to analyze the impact of economic events on capital mobility during this period. We apply the cointegration methodology in a setting that allows us to identify endogenous breaks in the long-run saving-investment relationship. Specifically, the breaks coincide with relevant economic events. We find a downward trend in the saving-investment retention since the 70s for the so-called “core countries†, whereas this trend is not so clear in the peripheral, where the financial and sovereign crises have had a more substantial impact. Our analysis captures other economic events: the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis, the German reunification, the European financial assistance program, and the post-crisis period. Our results also indicate that the original euro design had some caveats that remain unsolved.
    Keywords: Capital mobility; Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; Multiple Structural Breaks; Cointegration, unit roots
    JEL: F
    Date: 2021
  42. By: Persson, Torsten; Tabellini, Guido
    Abstract: We review theoretical and empirical research on the dynamic interactions between cultures and institutions. We think about culture as a system of values and about institutions as formalized rules of the game. Our presentation is organized around a simple theoretical framework of political agency, which is gradually expanded so as to introduce new links and feedbacks between culture and institutions.
    Keywords: Culture; Development; History; institutions; Persistence
    JEL: H0 N0 O1
    Date: 2020–08
  43. By: Lambert, Thomas
    Abstract: Different chroniclers of the history of the Byzantine Empire have noted various economic data gleamed from historical documents and accounts of the empire at different periods of time. Research for this paper has not uncovered any estimates of long term, annual macroeconomic data (gross domestic product (GDP), national income (NI), etc.) for the empire during its existence. Such data has been estimated to one extent or another for other nations and societies that have existed during the middle ages. This paper attempts to provide conjectures on approximate real GDP per capita trends for the empire over its existence from AD 300 to 1453. Finally, some hypotheses on factors that would have affected Byzantine economic performance are tested using climate/environmental factors. The results of this paper appear to confirm some findings on how the Byzantine economy might have been affected by periods of regional climate change.
    Keywords: Byzantine Empire, climate change, real GDP per capita, empire size
    JEL: N13
    Date: 2021–05–21
  44. By: de la Croix, David; Goñi, Marc
    Abstract: We argue that the waning of nepotism in academia bolstered scientific production in pre-industrial Europe. We build a database of families of scholars (1088-1800), measure their scientific output, and develop a general method to disentangle nepotism from inherited human capital -two determinants of occupational persistence. This requires jointly addressing measurement error in human capital proxies and sample selection bias arising from nepotism. Our method exploits multi-generation correlations together with parent-child distributional differences to identify the structural parameters of a first-order Markov process of human capital transmission with nepotism. We find an intergenerational human capital elasticity of 0.59, higher than that suggested by parent-child elasticities, yet lower than multi-generation estimates ignoring nepotism. On average, 16 percent of scholars' sons achieved their position because of nepotism. Nepotism was lower in science than in law and in Protestant than in Catholic institutions, and declined during the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment---two periods of buoyant scientific advancement.
    Keywords: human capital transmission; intergenerational mobility; Nepotism; pre-industrial Europe; university scholars; Upper-Tail Human Capital
    JEL: C31 E24 J1
    Date: 2020–08
  45. By: Ryohei Mogi; Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: The sexual debut and dating behaviour of the youth are vital to the process of personal and social transition from adolescence to adulthood and can have both direct and indirect influences on later union formation processes. Nonetheless, little attention has been paid to the sexual and dating behaviour of young people in Southern Europe and East Asia—both of which are categorized as societies with strong family ties and lowest-low fertility. The present study steps back to the initial events of the transition to adulthood and examines the sexual and dating behaviours of university students in Italy and Japan. Our results suggest that the world record-low fertility levels in Italy and Japan originate from very different processes in the transition to adult sexuality. In Japan, the sexual and affective behaviour of students in life’s early stages seems to be an important reason in explaining low fertility. In Italy, however, the reasons behind low fertility do not seem to stem from a problematic path of transition to adult sexuality and finding a partner, at least among higher educated individuals. We conclude that a focus on sexual and dating histories can provide an important perspective on the foundations of low fertility societies.
    Keywords: Sexual debut; Transition to adulthood; Partnership dynamics; Italy; Japan
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2021–05
  46. By: Nicolas da Silva (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Cet article propose une relecture de l'histoire économique de la mutualité entre 1789 et 1947 au prisme de son rapport au capitalisme. Alors qu'après la Révolution française et jusqu'à la Commune de Paris la mutualité est une institution ambiguë, entre subversion et intégration au capitalisme, à partir de 1871 elle s'insère largement au capitalisme. C'est à cette période que se séparent mutualisme et syndicalisme. Initialement, les classes populaires sont contraintes de s'auto-organiser pour survivre au dépérissement des protections de l'Ancien Régime et au libéralisme asymétrique de la bourgeoisie. Toute la finesse de la réglementation de l'État sous le Second Empire et de la IIIème République est d'essayer d'intégrer la mutualité pour en vider le contenu contestataire. Contrairement aux interprétations classiques, on peut alors dire que la Sécurité sociale de 1945 n'est pas la revanche des syndicalistes sur les mutualistes mais celle d'une certaine forme de la mutualité contre une autre.
    Date: 2020–06–06
  47. By: Thierry Pouch (REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne)
    Date: 2021–02
  48. By: Roxana Elena Manea; Pedro Naso
    Abstract: In this study, we investigate the impacts of the 2002 elimination of primary school fees in Mainland Tanzania. We explore how the magnitude of these effects depends on gender and the size of early investments in the educational infrastructure of Tanganyika. We use the 2002 and 2012 census waves as well as historical information on the location of schools in the late 1940s, and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. We find that exposure to an average of 1.7 years of free primary education has reduced the proportion of people who have never attended primary education by 6.8 percentage points. The benefits of fee removal have been signi cantly larger for females compared to males, and females from districts where the size of investments in education was relatively larger during colonial rule have been the greatest beneficiaries.
    Keywords: School fee; Educational Inequality; Tanzania
    Date: 2021–05–18
  49. By: Nicola Bianchi; Michela Giorcelli
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-term and spillover effects of management interventions on firm performance. Under the Training Within Industry (TWI) program, the U.S. government provided management training to firms involved in war production between 1940 and 1945. Using a newly collected panel dataset on all 11,575 U.S. firms that applied to the program, we find that the TWI training had positive and long-lasting effects on firm performance and the adoption of beneficial managerial practices. Moreover, it generated complementarities among different types of training and had positive spillover effects on the supply chain of trained firms.
    JEL: J24 L2 M2 M5 N34 N64 O15 O32 O33
    Date: 2021–05
  50. By: Bikhchandani, Sushil; Hirshleifer, David; Tamuz, Omer; Welch, Ivo
    Abstract: We review the theory of information cascades and social learning. Our goal is to describe in a relatively integrated and accessible way the more important themes, insights and applications of the literature as it has developed over the last thirty years. We also highlight open questions and promising directions for further theoretical and empirical exploration.
    Keywords: Information Cascades, Social Learning, Herding, Fads, Fashion, Conformity, Culture
    JEL: D03 D7 D8
    Date: 2021–05–23
  51. By: Maliar, Lilia; Maliar, Serguei; Tsener, Inna
    Abstract: A seminal work of Krusell, Ohanian, Ríos-Rull and Violante (2000) demonstrated that the capital-skill-complementarity mechanism is capable of explaining a U-shaped skill premium pattern over the 1963-1992 period in the US economy. However, the world experienced an unprecedented technological change since then. In this paper, we ask how the finding of their article change if we consider more recent data. First, we find that over the 1992-2017 period, the skill premium pattern changed dramatically, from a U-shaped to monotonically increasing, however, the capital-skill complementarity framework remains remarkably successful in explaining the data. Second, we use this framework to construct a projection, and we conclude that the skill premium will continue to grow in the US economy.
    Keywords: capital-skill complementarity; CES production function; skill premium; skilled and unskilled labor
    JEL: C73 D90 E21
    Date: 2020–08
  52. By: Issing, Otmar
    Abstract: Am 20. Januar 2021 veranstalteten das Institut für bankhistorische Forschung und das Center for Financial Studies eine vielbeachtete Video-Konferenz zum Thema 'Die Rolle von Zentralbanken in Krisenzeiten - Lehren aus der Zeit vor 1800'. Anlass war das Erscheinen des Buches von Ulrich Bindseil "Central Banking before 1800" (Oxford 2019). Derselbe Autor hatte einige Jahre zuvor bereits ein ebenfalls bemerkenswertes Buch veröffentlicht: "Monetary Policy Operations and the Financial System" (Oxford 2014). Dieser Beitrag bringt Kommentare zu beiden Publikationen verbunden mit eigenen Überlegungen zur Notenbankpolitik.
    JEL: E5 N2
    Date: 2021
  53. By: Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Luis Diaz-Serrano (Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Universidad Antonio de Nebrija)
    Abstract: This paper provides one of the first testsof adaptation tothe complete set ofresidential transitions. We use long-run SOEP panel data and consider the impact of all housing transitions, whether or not they involvea change in housing tenureor geographical movement, on both life satisfaction and housing satisfaction. Controlling for individual characteristics and housing quality, some residential transitionsaffect life satisfactiononly little, while all transitions have a significant effect on housing satisfaction. This latter is particularly large for renters who become homeowners and move geographically,and for renters who move without changing tenure status. Regarding housing satisfaction, we find very little evidence of adaptation even after five years. Losing homeowner status is the only transition that produces lower housing satisfaction, and here the effect seems to become even more negative over time.
    Keywords: Housing,Adaptation,well-being,SOEP
    Date: 2021–05
  54. By: Matoshi, Ruzhdi; Mulaj, Isa
    Abstract: Transition economics was and still is a topic mostly associated with the post-communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The cause of its emergence as a theory was not purely economic – the spearhead was politics – leading to the collapse of the Eastern Block, to be followed by the disintegration of three federal states: Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia, with many civil wars and ethnic conflicts. The experience proved a relaxation to the Western liberal developed democracies as it strengthened the belief of their superior model which the transition economies want to embrace. First of all, the transition provided a new opportunity for interaction between European East and West. On the eve of its 30th anniversary, with more than half of these countries experiencing “the end of transition” and joining the European Union (EU) while the rest considered not yet meeting the “standards”, another transition is on the way, and this one not going into but coming out from the EU, Brexit respectively. Just like in former communist countries, it too, originated from politics, namely the results of 23.06.2016 referendum results that decided for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the EU, a move that is about to force considerable changes in the economy, already labelled as “transition.” Although an intensive phase of research and debate is underway, the aim of this paper is to explore the implications of Brexit in terms of its international economics and contribute to a more general theory of transition economics which so far has been reserved for, and as a reference to, post-communist countries in CEE.
    Keywords: CEE, transformation, transition economics, Brexit, EU, general theory
    JEL: F15 N44 O33 P16 P27 P33
    Date: 2020–10–30
  55. By: Tsoulfidis, Lefteris; Tsaliki, Persefoni
    Abstract: ABSTRACT In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements Long recession, secular stagnation, pandemic, long cycles, institutional changes, disruptive innovations
    Keywords: Long recession, secular stagnation, pandemic, long cycles, institutional changes, disruptive innovations
    JEL: B5 D33 E1 N12 O51
    Date: 2021–05–18

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