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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2021‒05‒17
forty-five papers chosen by |
| By: | Geloso, Vincent; Pedersen, Maja; Sharp, Paul |
| Abstract: | Previous work has demonstrated the potential for wheat market integration between the US and the UK before the 'first era of globalization' in the second half of the nineteenth century. It was however frequently interrupted by policy and 'exogenous' events such as war. This paper adds Canada to this story by looking at trade and price data, as well as contemporary debates. We find that she faced similar barriers to the US, and that membership of the British Empire was therefore not a great benefit. We also describe the limitations she faced accessing the US market, in particular after American independence. Transportation costs do not appear to be the main barrier to the emergence of a globalized economy before around 1850. |
| Keywords: | British Empire; Canada; Globalization; market integration; United Kingdom; United States; wheat |
| JEL: | N51 N53 N71 N73 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15591&r= |
| By: | Abad, Leticia Arroyo; Maurer, Noel |
| Abstract: | In 2020, many observers were surprised that the Covid-19 outbreak did not appear to have swung the election. Early returns showed little indication that harder-hit areas swung away from the incumbent GOP. In 1918, however, the United States also held an election in the middle of a devastating pandemic. Using county-level epidemiological, electoral, and documentary evidence from 1918-20 we find that flu mortality had a statistically-significant negative effect on the Congressional or gubernatorial vote. The swing, while precise however, was relatively small and not enough to determine the results. We find no effect from flu mortality on turnout rates or on the 1920 presidential election. Our results hold using overall mortality in 1917 and distance to military camps as instruments for 1918 flu deaths. They also withstand tests of coefficient stability and alternative specifications. Considering that the 1918 flu was much more severe than the 2020 Covid pandemic, the historical evidence implies that surprised observers of the 2020 election should not have been so surprised. |
| Keywords: | Elections; Pandemics |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15678&r= |
| By: | Prados de la Escosura, Leandro; Santiago-Caballero, Carlos |
| Abstract: | The Napoleonic Wars had dramatic consequences for Spain's economy. The Peninsular War had higher demographic impact than any other military conflict, including civil wars, in the modern era. Farmers suffered confiscation of their crops and destruction of their main capital asset, livestock. The shrinking demand, the disruption of international and domestic trade, and the shortage of inputs hampered industry and services. The loss of the American colonies, a by-product of the French invasion, seriously harmed absolutism. In the long run, however, the Napoleonic Wars triggered the dismantling of Ancien Régime institutions and interest groups. Freed from their constraints, the country started a long and painful transition towards the liberal society. The Napoleonic Wars may be deemed, then, as a watershed in Spanish history. |
| Keywords: | growth; Institutional Change; Napoleonic Wars; Peninsular War; Spain |
| JEL: | E02 F54 N13 N43 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15616&r= |
| By: | Stephen H. Haber; Naomi R. Lamoreaux |
| Abstract: | This essay is the introduction to a book of the same title, forthcoming in summer of 2021 from Oxford University Press. The purpose is to document the ways in which patent systems are products of battles over the economic surplus from innovation. The features of these systems take shape as interests at different points in the production chain seek advantage in any way they can, and consequently, they are riven with imperfections. The interesting historical question is why US-style patent systems with all their imperfections have come to dominate other methods of encouraging inventive activity. The essays in the book suggest that the creation of a tradable but temporary property right facilitates the transfer of technological knowledge and thus fosters a highly productive decentralized ecology of inventors and firms. |
| JEL: | N4 N41 N42 N43 N44 O3 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28774&r= |
| By: | Binzel, Christine; Link, Andreas; Ramachandran, Rajesh |
| Abstract: | The use of a language in written and formal contexts that is distinct from the varieties used in everyday communication - such as Latin in early modern Europe and Standard Arabic in the Arabic-speaking world - comes with benefits, but also with costs. Drawing on city-level data on all books and pamphlets published in Europe between 1451 and 1600, we document that the Protestant Reformation led to a sharp rise in vernacular printing, such that by the end of the 16th century, the majority of works were printed in spoken tongues rather than in Latin. This transformation allowed broader segments of society to access knowledge. It was also associated, as we show, with a significant diversification in the composition of authors and book content. Finally, we provide evidence that an increase in vernacular printing at the city level is strongly correlated with higher population growth - a proxy for economic development - and in the birth of notable innovators and creative individuals. In this way, we argue that the vernacularization of printing was an important driver of European dynamism in the early modern period. |
| Keywords: | economic development; Inclusive institutions; Language; Protestant Reformation |
| JEL: | E02 N13 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15454&r= |
| By: | Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros |
| Abstract: | With the present contribution, we analyze in brief the deeds in politics, economics, diplomacy , religion and culture of a Byzantine medieval princess, Theophano, who became a Kaiserin, that is, an Empress of the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation, during her reign between 973–983 AD. We argue that under her rule she contributed to the strengthening of the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation in the following centuries. |
| Keywords: | Eastern Roman Empire, Byzantium, Holy Roman Empire, Empress Theophano, Otto II |
| JEL: | N0 N4 N43 |
| Date: | 2021–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107530&r= |
| By: | Lindgren, Mattias (Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | The legal status of land had important consequences in pre-industrial societies, and Sweden was no different. Here land was broadly divided into the three categories of free-hold, crown land and noble land, which, in turn, were divided into several sub-categories, each with its own legal and practical consequences. In this paper I present, for the first time, a comprehensive dataset for 17 such sub-categories, for the period 1718-1865. The data describe how much of the land, in terms of tax-assessment units (mantal), belonged to each of these categories. The data is a based on a synthesis of the existing data compilations already available. The data, available for download, also include detailed meta-data that describe the source for each observation. The data will, amongst other things, allow us to estimate the size of electorate to the farmers estate and give a more detailed picture of the rise of the farmer class. |
| Keywords: | land ownership; 18th century; 19th century; Sweden; agrarian history; database |
| JEL: | N23 |
| Date: | 2021–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0220&r= |
| By: | Olivetti, Claudia; Paserman, M. Daniele; Salisbury, Laura; Weber, E. Anna |
| Abstract: | We present new findings about the relationship between marriage and socioeconomic background in the United States in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. Imputing socioeconomic status of family of origin from first names, we document a socioeconomic gradient for women in the probability of marriage and the socioeconomic status of husbands. This socioeconomic gradient becomes steeper over time. We investigate the degree to which it can be explained by occupational income divergence across geographic regions. Regional divergence explains about one half of the socioeconomic divergence in the probability of marriage, and almost all of the increase in marital sorting. Differences in urbanization rates and the share of foreign-born across states drive most of these differences, while other factors (the scholarization rate, the sex ratio and the share in manufacturing) play a smaller role. |
| Keywords: | Assortative mating; Gender; intergenerational mobility; Marriage; regional convergence |
| JEL: | J12 J62 N31 N32 N91 N92 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15484&r= |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O.; Ferrara, Andreas; Melander, Eric; Pascali, Luigi |
| Abstract: | We provide causal evidence for the role of conflicts in the development of representative institutions in Europe. Using novel data on the universe of German cities between 1250 and 1710, we show that involvement in wars resulted in city councils that were larger, had a higher probability of being elected by citizens, and a higher probability of guild representation. Additionally, conflicts led to a substantial long-term increase in local fiscal and spending capacity. This effect persisted well after the end of the conflicts: temporary war taxes were transformed into permanent sophisticated systems of taxation, while public spending was re-directed from military to civilian spending. We use the gender of the firstborn child of the best-connected local noble to instrument for conflict: a firstborn daughter increases the likelihood of conflict relative to a firstborn son. |
| Keywords: | fiscal capacity; institutions; medieval constitutionalism; wars |
| JEL: | N13 P48 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15601&r= |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O.; Won, Cheongyeon |
| Abstract: | In the mid 19th century, pre-colonial Korea under the Joseon dynasty was increasingly isolated and lagging behind in its economic development. Joseon Korea was forced to sign unequal treaties with foreign powers as a result of which Christian missionaries entered the country and contributed to the establishment of private schools. We show that areas with a larger presence of Christians have higher literacy rates in 1930, during the Japanese colonial period. We also show that a higher number of Protestants is associated with higher female literacy, consistent with a stronger emphasis on female education in Protestant denominations. |
| Keywords: | Gender Gap; Korea; Literacy; Missionaries; religion |
| JEL: | I21 J16 N35 Z12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15640&r= |
| By: | Nuvolari, Alessandro; Tortorici, Gaspare; Vasta, Michelangelo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns of technology transfer from Britain to France during the early phases of industrialization; it does so by making use of a dataset comprising all patents granted in France during the period 1791-1844. Exploiting the peculiarities of the French legislation, we construct an array of patent quality indicators and econometrically investigate their determinants. We find that patents filed by British inventors or French inventors personally linked with British ones were of relatively higher quality. Overall, our results show that the French innovation system was effectively capable of attracting and absorbing key technologies from Britain. |
| Keywords: | Britain; France; industrial revolution; patents; Technology Transfer |
| JEL: | N73 O3 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15620&r= |
| By: | Alsan, Marcella; Eriksson, Katherine; Niemesh, Gregory T. |
| Abstract: | We study the contribution of economic conditions to the success of the first avowedly nativist political party in the United States. The Know-Nothing Party gained control of a number of state governments in the 1854-1856 elections running on a staunchly anti-Catholic and anti-Irish platform. Our analysis focuses on the case of Massachusetts, which had experienced a wave of Irish Famine immigration and was at the forefront of industrialization in the United States. Voters in towns with more exposure to Irish labor market crowdout and deskilling in manufacturing were more likely to vote for Know-Nothing candidates in state elections. These two forces played a decisive role in 1855, but not the other years of the Know Nothings' success. We find evidence of reduced wealth accumulation for native workers most exposed to labor market crowdout and deskilling, though this was tempered by occupational upgrading. The Know-Nothings lost power in 1857 to the abolitionist Republicans as the crisis over slavery came to a head, culminating in the Civil War. |
| JEL: | D72 J61 N00 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15562&r= |
| By: | Cagé, Julia; Dagorret, Anna; Grosjean, Pauline; Jha, Saumitra |
| Abstract: | Can heroes legitimize strongly-proscribed and repugnant political behaviors? We exploit the purposefully arbitrary rotation of French regiments to measure the legitimizing effects of heroic credentials. 53% of French line regiments happened to rotate under a specific general, Philippe Pétain, during the pivotal WWI battle of Verdun (1916). Using recently-declassified intelligence data on 95,314 individuals, we find the home municipalities of regiments serving under Pétain at Verdun raised 7% more Nazi collaborators during the Pétain-led Vichy regime (1940-44). The effects are similar across joining Fascist parties, German forces, paramilitaries that hunted Jews and the Resistance, and collaborating economically. These municipalities also increasingly vote for right-wing parties between the wars. The voting effects persist after WWII, becoming particularly salient during social crises. We argue these results reflect the complementary role of the heroes of Verdun in legitimizing and diffusing the authoritarian values of their former leader. |
| Keywords: | Autocracy; Democratic Values; Heroes; identity; leaders; Legitimacy; networks; Votes |
| JEL: | D74 L14 N44 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15613&r= |
| By: | Simpson, James; Carmona, Juan |
| Abstract: | The growing success of small family farms in Europe before 1930 was found alongside large estates. Tenanted estates enjoyed the advantages of the greater incentives of family farmers to maximize their production, and the economies of scale for marketing, credit or technical improvement of large exploitations. A particular case is the tenanted estates specialized in the production and marketing of wine and using sharecropping contracts. Technical changes, the increasing of scale economies in wine production, and the impact of Phylloxera after 1870 had an impact in the nature of the contract as landlords increasing the control on production. This paper compares the three specific cases of Beaujolais, Catalonia and Tuscany, where tenanted wine producing estates were common throughout this period, and the responses of owners and settlers to these changes in the long term. |
| Keywords: | Winegrowers; Wine History; Sharecropping |
| JEL: | Q15 Q13 N54 N53 D23 |
| Date: | 2021–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:32582&r= |
| By: | Jacks, David S.; Pendakur, Krishna; Shigeoka, Hitoshi |
| Abstract: | Federal prohibition from 1920 to 1933 was one of the most ambitious policy interventions in US history. However, due to the political concessions necessary to bring about repeal, the removal of restrictions on alcohol after 1933 was not uniform. Using new data on city-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1936, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition affected multiple causes of urban (non-infant) mortality. We find that city-level repeal is associated with a 14.7% decrease in homicide rates and a 10.1% decrease in mortality rates associated with other accidents (including accidental poisonings). Thus, the repeal of federal prohibition could have led to an annual reduction of as many as 3,400 urban deaths. Combined with previous results showing large increases in infant mortality, this suggests that nonetheless repeal most likely had negative effects on all-cause mortality and, thereby, public health in the US. |
| Keywords: | Federal prohibition; local option; Urban Mortality |
| JEL: | H73 I18 J1 N3 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15510&r= |
| By: | Daniela Vidart (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the link between electrification and the rise in female labor force participation (LFP), and presents theoretical and empirical evidence showing that elec-trification triggered a rise in female LFP by increasing market opportunities for skilled women. I formalize my theory in an overlapping generations model, and find that my mechanism explains one third of the rise in female LFP during the rollout of electricity in the US (1880-1960), and matches the slow decline in female home-production hours during this period. I then present micro-evidence supporting my theory using newly digitized data on the early electrification of the US. |
| Keywords: | Female Labor Force Participation, Human Capital Accumulation, Electrification, Skill-biased Technical Change, Home to Market Transition, Brain vs. Brawn |
| JEL: | O33 J24 E24 O11 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2021-08&r= |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O. (Department of Economics, Monash University and University of Warwick); Francisco J. Pino (Department of Economics, University of Chile); Vidal-Robert, Jordi (Department of Economics, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | The Protestant Reformation in the early 16th century challenged the monopoly of the Catholic Church. The printing press helped the new movement spread its ideas well beyond the cradle of the Reformation in Luther’s city of Wittenberg. The Catholic Church reacted by issuing indexes of forbidden books which blacklisted not only Protestant authors but all authors whose ideas were considered to be in conflict with Catholic doctrine. We use newly digitized data on the universe of books censored by the Catholic Church during the Counter-Reformation, containing information on titles, authors, printers and printing locations. We classify censored books by topic (religion, sciences, social sciences and arts) and language and record when and where books were indexed. Our results show that Catholic censorship did reduce printing of forbidden authors, as intended, but also negatively impacted on the diffusion of knowledge, and city growth. |
| Keywords: | Censorship ; Counter-Reformation ; Political Economy ; Elite Human Capital JEL Classification: D7 ; N93 ; J24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1356&r= |
| By: | Dupraz, Yannick (University College Dublin and CAGE); Ferrara, Andreas (University of Pittsburgh and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of losing a father in the U.S. Civil War on children’s long-run socioeconomic outcomes. Linking military records from the 2.2 million Union Army soldiers with the 1860 U.S. population Census, we track soldiers’ sons into the 1880 and 1900 Census. Sons of soldiers who died had a lower occupational income score and were less likely to have a high- or semi-skilled job as opposed to being low-skilled or farmers. These effects persisted at least until the 1900 census. Our results are robust to instrumenting paternal death with the mortality rate of the father’s regiment, which we argue was driven by military strategy that did not take into account the social origins of soldiers. Pre-war family wealth is a strong mitigating factor- there is no effect of losing a father in the top quartile of the wealth distribution. |
| Keywords: | U.S. CIVIL WAR; ORPHANS; INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY JEL Classification: N11, J13, J62 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:538&r= |
| By: | Vincent Bignon (Banque de France and CEPR, Paris, France); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EHESS, AMSE, Marseille, France, CEPR and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a novel negative impact of trade tariffs and the costs they induce by documenting how protectionism reversed the long-term improvements in education and the fertility transition that were well under way in late 19th-century France. The Méline tariff, a tariff on cereals introduced in 1892, was a major protectionist shock that shifted relative prices in favor of agriculture and away from industry. In a context in which the latter was more intensive in skills than agriculture, the tariff reduced the relative return to education, which in turn affected parents' decisions about the quantity and quality of children. We use regional differences in the importance of cereal production in the local economy to estimate the impact of the tariff. Our findings indicate that the tariff reduced enrolment in primary education and increased birth rates and fertility. The magnitude of these effects was substantial, with the tariff offsetting the increasing trend in enrolment rates and the decreasing one in birth rates by a decade. |
| Keywords: | education, fertility, protectionism, France |
| JEL: | J13 N33 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2126&r= |
| By: | Chen, Yao; Palma, Nuno Pedro G.; Ward, Felix |
| Abstract: | How did the Spanish money supply evolve in the aftermath of the discovery of large amounts of precious metals in Spanish America? We synthesize the available data on the mining of monetary metals and their international flow to estimate the money supply for Spain from 1492 to 1810. Our estimate suggests that the Spanish money supply increased more than ten-fold. This monetary expansion can account for most of the price level rise in early modern Spain. In its absence, Spain would have required substantial deflation to accommodate its early modern output gains. |
| Keywords: | Early Modern Period; equation of exchange; Quantity Theory of Money |
| JEL: | E31 E51 N13 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15509&r= |
| By: | Saccal, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The following contributions are hereby worked: one mathematically formalises Mundell’s Impossible trio and Rodrik’s Globalisation paradox, supplying the latter with a taxonomy in terms of the current account; by means of Kaldor’s price endogeneity in output, one proves that external real money market disparity and trade generate external output mismatches and lead to autarky unless offset, using topology and dynamical systems; one characterises transfers and federalism and shows that all unitary states are federal polities and can merge into confederations; one demonstrates that the said external output mismatches can be only eluded via autarky or neutralisation, irrespective of federalism; one discerns artificial currency areas guaranteeing inter-regional external output equality and modern protectionism as two Nash equilibria, especially rationalising the nexus between the Gold standard, the Industrial revolution and the Great divergence therethrough. |
| Keywords: | autarky; federalism; inefficiency; trilemma. |
| JEL: | E12 F13 F22 F41 F43 F45 F52 F60 N10 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2019–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107639&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | RÉSUMÉ & ABSTRACT : Au cours de l'histoire, rien n'a tué plus d'êtres humains que les maladies infectieuses et la fièvre hémorragique. Bien que les taux de mortalité dus aux pandémies aient chuté de près de 1 % par an dans le monde, environ 0,8 % par an, tout au long du XXe siècle, le nombre de nouvelles maladies infectieuses comme le Sars, le VIH et le Covid-19 a presque quadruplé par rapport au passé. En Afrique, on a signalé un total de 4 522 489 cas confirmés de COVID-19 et 119 816 décès, au 23 avril 2021. La pandémie a eu de graves répercussions sur les secteurs économique et social dans presque tous les pays africains. Il menace de pousser jusqu'à 58 millions de personnes dans l'extrême pauvreté. Cependant, outre les Africains pauvres, la pandémie de Covid affecte également la classe moyenne africaine en pleine croissance, c'est-à-dire environ 170 millions sur les 1,3 milliard d'Africains actuellement classés dans la classe moyenne. Près de huit millions d'entre eux pourraient être plongés dans la pauvreté à cause du coronavirus et de ses conséquences économiques. Ce revers se fera sentir pendant des décennies. En outre, dans l'histoire récente de l'Afrique, d'autres maladies infectieuses comme la trypanosomiase du bassin du Congo de 1896 à 1906 avec un nombre des morts de plus de 500 000 ainsi que l'épidémie de trypanosomose africaine en Ouganda de 1900 à 1920 avec 200 000 à 300 000 décès ont eu un impact négatif considérable sur les sociétés et économies africaines. En fait, d'autres pandémies, comme la fièvre jaune, le choléra, la méningite et la rougeole-sans parler du paludisme-ont contribué à des ralentissements économiques durables et affectent gravement le bien-être social pendant des décennies. ABSTRACT : Throughout history, nothing has killed more human beings than infectious diseases. Although, death rates from pandemics dropped globally by about 0.8 % per year, all the way through the 20th century, the number of new infectious diseases like Sars, HIV and Covid-19 increased by nearly fourfold over the past century. In Africa, there were reported a total of 4,522,489 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 119,816 death, as of 23 April 2021. The pandemic impacted seriously on the economic and social sectors in almost all African countries. It is threatening to push up to 58 m people into extreme poverty. However, apart from the African poor, the Covid pandemic also affects the growing African middle class, i.e. about 170 million out of Africa’s 1.3 billion people currently classified as middle class. Nearly eight million of may be thrust into poverty because of the coronavirus and its economic aftermath. This setback will be felt for decades to come. Moreover, in recent African History also other infectouse diseases like the 1896–1906 Congo Basin Trypanosomiasis with a death-toll of over 500.000 as well as the 1900–1920 Uganda African trypanosomiasis epidemic with 200,000–300,000 death had tremendous negative impact on Africa’s societies and economies. Actually, other pandemics, like Yellow Fever, Cholera, Meningitis and Measles – not to mention Malaria - contributed to long-lasting economic downturns and seriously affect the social wellbeing for decades. |
| Date: | 2021–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:uda5j&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causal joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq on life expectancy of Iranians for the period 1978–1988 during the revolution and war. I use a synthetic control approach to construct a synthetic Iran based on a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa (‘MENA’) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (‘OPEC’) countries. The synthetic Iran matches the average level of key pre-revolution life expectancy correlates and the evolution of the factual Iranian life expectancy during the post-revolution period through the end of the war. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The results show that in total, an average Iranian has lost an accumulated 62 years of life during the post-revolution period until the end of war with Iraq in 1988. The average annual years of life lost is approximately six years. In other words, in the absence of the revolution and war, an average Iranian’s life expectancy could be approximately six years longer. |
| Keywords: | synthetic control method, treatment effect, Iran, Iraq, war, conflict, revolution, life expectancy, health |
| JEL: | C23 H56 F51 D74 Q34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9063&r= |
| By: | Buggle, Johannes; Mayer, Thierry; Sakalli, Seyhun; Thoenig, Mathias |
| Abstract: | We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of almost the entire Jewish community living in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history in order to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (in 1935) would have led to a 28% increase in Jewish migration out of Germany. |
| Keywords: | antisemitism; Counterfactual History; migration policy; Nazi Germany; Refugees |
| JEL: | D74 F22 F50 N40 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15533&r= |
| By: | Corno, Lucia; La Ferrara, Eliana; Voena, Alessandra |
| Abstract: | We investigate the historical origins of female genital cutting (FGC), a harmful practice widespread across Africa. We test the hypothesis --substantiated by historical sources-- that FGC was connected to the Red Sea slave trade route, where women were sold as concubines in the Middle East and infibulation was used to ensure chastity. We hypothesize that differential exposure of ethnic groups to the Red Sea route determined differential adoption of the practice. Combining individual level data from 28 African countries with novel historical data on slaves' shipments by country, ethnic group and trade routes from 1400 to 1900. We find that women belonging to ethnic groups whose ancestors were exposed to the Red Sea route are more likely to be infibulated or circumcised today and are more in favor of continuing the practice. The estimated effects are very similar when slave exports are instrumented by distance to the North-Eastern African coast. Finally, the effect is smaller for ethnic groups that historically freely permitted premarital sex -- a proxy for low demand for chastity. |
| Keywords: | female genital cutting; FGC; FGM; Gender norms; Slave trade |
| JEL: | N37 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15577&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : Throughout history, nothing has killed more human beings than infectious diseases. Although, death rates from pandemics dropped globally by about 0.8 % per year, all the way through the 20th century, the number of new infectious diseases like Sars, HIV and Covid-19 increased by nearly fourfold over the past century. In Africa, there were reported a total of 4,522,489 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 119,816 death, as of 23 April 2021. The pandemic impacted seriously on the economic and social sectors in almost all African countries. It is threatening to push up to 58 m people into extreme poverty. However, apart from the African poor, the Covid pandemic also affects the growing African middle class, i.e. about 170 million out of Africa’s 1.3 billion people currently classified as middle class. Nearly eight million of may be thrust into poverty because of the coronavirus and its economic aftermath. This setback will be felt for decades to come. Moreover, in recent African History also other infectouse diseases like the 1896–1906 Congo Basin Trypanosomiasis with a death-toll of over 500.000 as well as the 1900–1920 Uganda African trypanosomiasis epidemic with 200,000–300,000 death had tremendous negative impact on Africa’s societies and economies. Actually, other pandemics, like Yellow Fever, Cholera, Meningitis and Measles – not to mention Malaria - contributed to long-lasting economic downturns and seriously affect the social wellbeing for decades. RÉSUMÉ : Au cours de l’histoire, rien n’a tué plus d’êtres humains que les maladies infectieuses et la fièvre hémorragique. Bien que les taux de mortalité dus aux pandémies aient chuté de près de 1% par an dans le monde, environ 0,8% par an, tout au long du XXe siècle, le nombre de nouvelles maladies infectieuses comme le Sars, le VIH et le Covid-19 a presque quadruplé par rapport au passé. En Afrique, on a signalé un total de 4 522 489 cas confirmés de COVID-19 et 119 816 décès, au 23 avril 2021. La pandémie a eu de graves répercussions sur les secteurs économique et social dans presque tous les pays africains. Il menace de pousser jusqu'à 58 millions de personnes dans l'extrême pauvreté. Cependant, outre les Africains pauvres, la pandémie de Covid affecte également la classe moyenne africaine en pleine croissance, c'est-à-dire environ 170 millions sur les 1,3 milliard d'africains actuellement classés dans la classe moyenne. Près de huit millions d'entre eux pourraient être plongés dans la pauvreté à cause du coronavirus et de ses conséquences économiques. Ce revers se fera sentir pendant des décennies. En outre, dans l'histoire récente de l'Afrique, d'autres maladies infectieuses comme la trypanosomiase du bassin du Congo de 189 … View full abstract |
| Date: | 2021–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:58myz&r= |
| By: | Miho, Antonela; Jarotschkin, Alexandra; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | We study horizontal between-group cultural transmission using a unique historical setting, which combines exogenous group exposure with no control over whether and how the representativesof different groups interact. Stalin's ethnic deportations during WWII moved over 2 million people — the majority of whom were ethnic Germans and Chechens — from the Western parts of the USSR to Central Asia and Siberia. As a result, the native population of the deportation destinations was exogenously exposed to groups with drastically different gender norms. Combining historical archival data with contemporary surveys, we document that gender norms diffused from deportees tothe local population, resulting in changes in attitudes and behavior. Norms of gender equality diffused more than norms of gender discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Horizontal cultural transmission, Gender norms, Deportations, Stalin |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2103&r= |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Francisco J. Pino; Jordi Vidal-Robert |
| Abstract: | The Protestant Reformation in the early 16th century challenged the monopoly of the Catholic Church. The printing press helped the new movement spread its ideas well beyond the cradle of the Reformation in Luther’s city of Wittenberg. The Catholic Church reacted by issuing indexes of forbidden books which blacklisted not only Protestant authors but all authors whose ideas were considered to be in conflict with Catholic doctrine. We use newly digitized data on the universe of books censored by the Catholic Church during the Counter-Reformation, containing information on titles, authors, printers and printing locations. We classify censored books by topic (religion, sciences, social sciences and arts) and language and record when and where books were indexed. Our results show that Catholic censorship did reduce printing of forbidden authors, as intended, but also negatively impacted on the diffusion of knowledge, and city growth. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp516&r= |
| By: | Bown, Chad P. |
| Abstract: | The US-China trade war forced a reluctant semiconductor industry into someone else's fight, a very different position from its leading role in the 1980s trade conflict with Japan. This paper describes how the political economy of the global semiconductor industry has evolved since the 1980s. That includes both a shift in the business model behind how semiconductors go from conception to a finished product, as well as the geographic reorientation toward Asia of demand and manufactured supply. It uses that lens to explain how, during the modern conflict with China, US policymakers turned to a legally complex set of export restrictions targeting the semiconductor supply chain in the attempt to safeguard critical infrastructure in the telecommunications sector. The potentially far-reaching tactics included weaponization of exports by relatively small but highly specialized American software service and equipment providers in order to constrain Huawei, a Fortune Global 500 company. It describes potential costs of such policies, some of their unintended consequences, and whether policymakers might push them further in the attempt to constrain other Chinese firms. |
| Keywords: | Export restrictions; Huawei; National Security; Semiconductors; SMIC; Supply Chains; USâ??China trade relations |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15597&r= |
| By: | Ager, Philipp; Eriksson, Katherine; Karger, Ezra; Nencka, Peter; Thomasson, Melissa A. |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the last comparable U.S. public health emergency. During both pandemics, many state and local governments made the controversial decision to close schools. We study the short- and long-run effects of 1918-19 pandemic-related school closures on children. We find precise null effects of school closures in 1918 on school attendance in 1919-20 using newly collected data on the exact timing of school closures for 168 cities in 1918-19. Linking affected children to their adult outcomes in the 1940 census, we also find precise null effects of school closures on adult educational attainment, wage income, non-wage income, and hours worked in 1940. Our results are not inconsistent with an emerging literature that finds negative short-run effects of COVID-19-related school closures on learning. The situation in 1918 was starkly different from today: (1) schools closed in 1918 for many fewer days on average, (2) the 1918 virus was much deadlier to young adults and children, boosting absenteeism even in schools that stayed open, and (3) the lack of effective remote learning platforms in 1918 may have reduced the scope for school closures to increase socioeconomic inequality. |
| Keywords: | 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic; Educational Attainment; School Closures |
| JEL: | I18 I26 N32 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15575&r= |
| By: | Juhász, Réka; Squicciarini, Mara; Voigtländer, Nico |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the future of remote work by drawing parallels between two contexts: The move from home to factory-based production during the Industrial Revolution and the shift to work from home today. Both are characterized by a similar trade-off: the potential productivity advantage of the new working arrangement made possible by technology (mechanization or ICT), versus organizational barriers such as coordinating workers. Using contemporary data, we show that organizational barriers seem to be present today. Without further technological or organizational innovations, remote work may not be here to stay just yet. |
| JEL: | F63 O14 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15578&r= |
| By: | Ofori, Isaac Kwesi; Armah, Mark Kojo |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the exchange rate and interest rate differential relationship since Ghana adopted the inflation targeting regime. Using macro-data spanning 2002 to 2019 for Ghana and the United States, we show the nonexistence of the relationship in both the short-run and long-run. Further, we show a positive but slow responsiveness of exchange rate to interest rate differential shocks from the short-run to medium term. The long-run result however shows a case of a strong and significant response of exchange rate to interest rate differential shocks. We recommend that the Bank of Ghana address perennial macroeconomic instability, especially on inflation which we conjecture to fuel investment uncertainty and investment insensitivity to interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate, Impulse Response Function, Interest Rate Differential, VAR, Ghana |
| JEL: | A1 E4 E43 E5 F3 F31 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107586&r= |
| By: | Exley, Sonia |
| Abstract: | The notion of selecting students based on academic achievement into different schools at certain points in their educational careers is one that has long been contested in education. In this paper I consider the role selective schooling may play in driving families’ demand for private tutoring – a phenomenon currently growing in many regions of the world. The paper explores the ‘extreme case’ of South Korea – a country with some of the highest spending on private tutoring globally and also a long history of selective schooling. Drawing on interviews with experts and key stakeholders in the Korean education system, the paper reports a number of findings. Interviewees for this project were in many respects critical of a 1970s ‘equalisation’ of Korean schooling, though they also viewed moves back towards selection as fuelling ‘shadow education’. Concern about this has driven governments to curb selective schooling for a second time in Korean history. |
| Keywords: | selective schools; tracking; private tutoring; shadow education |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2020–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:102448&r= |
| By: | Roberto P. Ferreira da Cunha (Berkeley Research Group, LLC); Antoine Missemer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Harold Hotelling's 1931 contribution is known for providing a basic principle—the Hotelling rule—to the economics of non‐renewable resources. Nearly 90 years later, empirical tests conclude the rule lacks empirical validity, requiring strong amendments to describe the long‐term, aggregate behaviour of its target object. On the basis of Hotelling's unpublished archival material, this paper revisits the place given to the Hotelling rule in non‐renewable resource economics. Our reconstruction shows that Hotelling's 1931 paper has been misinterpreted: from the outset, the Hotelling rule was not valid for mineral resources. In contrast, the consideration of two inherent geological constraints, alongside exhaustibility, offered the opportunity for an alternative basic framework, capable to generate bell‐shaped and U‐shaped equilibrium trajectories for supplies and prices, respectively. Inspired by this unknown aspect of Hotelling's work brought to light by our archival investigation, we sketch this alternative basic model, enabling non‐renewable resource economics to circumvent the empirical shortfalls of the Hotelling rule. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03216483&r= |
| By: | Ignacio DE SOUZA; Irene VALITUTTO; Claire SIMONNEAU |
| Abstract: | Este artículo comparte una visión transversal sobre un movimiento social y colectivo que cuestiona la idea de propiedad individual por la vivienda. Dicho movimiento junto a un marco legal innovador en 1968 (Ley Nacional de Vivienda) dan origen al sistema cooperativo de vivienda uruguayo.El enfoque de este análisis presenta al sistema de las cooperativas de vivienda por ayuda mutua y articula posiciones de algunos de los actores más relevantes del mapa sociopolítico uruguayo, involucrados con su historia.Desde la mirada del autor principal, el aporte de la ayuda mutua y el rol de los Institutos de Asistencia Técnica interdisciplinarios son fundamentales y atraviesan al sistema cooperativo. Sistema que se presenta en este artículo a través de cinco claves de reflexión: 1. el contexto histórico; 2. las leyes y las instituciones; 3. la asistencia técnica y el trabajo interdisciplinario; 4. la ayuda mutua, auto construcción y autogestión y 5. la propiedad colectiva.Esta síntesis analítico-descriptiva ilustra una propuesta de innovación urbana y legal formulada en la segunda mitad de los años 1960, vigente hasta hoy en Uruguay. |
| Keywords: | Autres pays |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2021–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:es12503&r= |
| By: | Ductor, Lorenzo; Goyal, Sanjeev; Prummer, Anja |
| Abstract: | We connect gender disparities in research output and collaboration patterns in economics. We first document large gender gaps in research output. These gaps persist across 50 years despite a significant increase in the fraction of women in economics during that time. We further show that output differences are closely related to differences in the co-authorship networks of men and women: women have fewer collaborators, collaborate more often with the same co-authors, and a higher fraction of their co-authors collaborate with each other. Taking into account co-authorship networks reduces the gender output gap by 18%. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15673&r= |
| By: | Mary Kaltenberg; Adam B. Jaffe; Margie E. Lachman |
| Abstract: | Previous research suggests creative ability peaks in the age decades of the 30s and early 40s, and declines thereafter, with some variation across fields. Building from the cognitive aging literature, we expect differences in the rate of creation and qualitative nature of creative works by age. Cognitive processes show aging-related changes with increases in experience-based knowledge (pragmatics or crystallized abilities) and decreases in the ability to process novel information quickly and efficiently (mechanics or fluid abilities). We describe a new database created by combining the publicly available patent data with information on inventor ages scraped from directory websites on the web for approximately 1.2 million U.S.-resident inventors patenting between 1976 and 2017. Our results suggest that cross-sectional and within-inventor patenting rates are similar, peaking at around the early 40s for both women and men. We find varying results for attributes of patents in relation to age, some of which are consistent with cognitive aging theory. For solo inventors, backward citations and originality, which are connected to experience, were found to increase with age. Forward citations, number of claims, and generality measures, as well as a citation-based measure of disruptiveness decline on average with inventor age. A similar pattern was found for performance in teams based on the average age of inventors in the team. Exploration of age diversity showed that teams with a wider age range had patents that are slightly more important (i.e., with more forward citations). The findings have the potential to advance scholarship on the life course of innovation with implications for workplace policies. |
| JEL: | O31 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28769&r= |
| By: | Eduardo R. Scarano |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo se propone caracterizar el proceso de investigación durante la mayor parte del primer período (1913-1925) de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas que tuvo características distintivas, especialmente respecto a la manera de recolectar, sistematizar, usar datos y su función en el desarrollo investigativo. El estudio se basa en fuentes de la Facultad muy poco conocidas y utilizadas para analizar la investigación. El sistema de investigación de la Facultad constituyó un hito en la universidad argentina de ese entonces y permite comprender su evolución posterior. |
| Keywords: | investigación, datos, seminario de investigación |
| JEL: | B40 A22 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4407&r= |
| By: | Juan Carlos de Pablo |
| Abstract: | El 13 de mayo de 2021 nuestro compatriota y distinguido economista Guillermo Calvo cumplió 80 años. Sus primeros 80 años, que como en igual ocasión le dijeron a Armen Albert Alchian, “son los más jodidos”. Las líneas que siguen sintetizan su vida y su obra… hasta acá, porque todavía esperamos mucho de él. Se puede sacar a un ruso de Rusia, pero no se puede sacar a Rusia de un ruso. Esto se aplica a la persona y a la obra escrita por Calvo, quien a pesar de haber vivido buena parte de su vida profesional en el exterior, su forma de expresarse y tanto la elección como el tratamiento de las cuestiones que analizó, son más argentinas que el dulce de leche. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:793&r= |
| By: | Kilian Huber; Volker Lindenthal; Fabian Waldinger |
| Abstract: | Large-scale increases in discrimination can lead to dismissals of highly qualified managers. We investigate how expulsions of senior Jewish managers, due to rising discrimination in Nazi Germany, affected large corporations. Firms that lost Jewish managers experienced persistent reductions in stock prices, dividends, and returns on assets. Aggregate market value fell by roughly 1.8 percent of German GNP because of the expulsions. Managers who served as key connectors to other firms and managers who were highly educated were particularly important for firm performance. The findings imply that individual managers drive firm performance. Discrimination against qualified business leaders causes first-order economic losses. |
| JEL: | D22 E60 G30 J7 J71 M12 N24 N34 N8 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28766&r= |
| By: | Nagler, Markus; Schnitzer, Monika; Watzinger, Martin |
| Abstract: | How do patents influence the spread of General Purpose Technologies? To answer this question, we analyze the diffusion of the transistor, one of the most important technologies of our time. We show that the transistor diffusion and cross-technology spillovers increased dramatically after AT&T began licensing its transistor patents on standardized terms in 1952. This suggests that standardized licensing of the transistor patents helped jumpstart the positive feedback loop between innovations upstream and in applications. A subsequent reduction in royalties did not lead to a further increase, suggesting that standardized licensing in itself is more important than the specific royalty rates. |
| Keywords: | General Purpose Technololgies; Innovation; Intellectual Property; Standardized Licensing; Transistor |
| JEL: | O3 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15713&r= |
| By: | Spash, Clive L. |
| Abstract: | Today, environmental economics is the response of the neoclassical economic school to the ecological crisis, but at one time its leading contributors regarded it as a revolutionary development that would change the conduct and content of economics as a discipline. Understanding and addressing environmental pollution was core to that potential paradigm shift. In tracing the history of conceptualising pollution as an externality and market failure this paper covers the development of ideas by Marshall, Pigou, Pareto, Coase, Stigler, Samuelson, Ciciacy-Wantrup and Kapp. Pollution externality theory is shown to have incorporated an elitist ethics and liberal market ideology. As a market failure pollution was deemed a minor correctible error of the price system. Monetary valuation of social and environmental harm became the means of justifying optimal levels of pollution. Neoliberal theories of spreading property rights further watered down potential interventionist aspects. Bio-physical realism, in the work of Kneese, Ayres and d’Arge, and social realism in Kapp’s theory of cost shifting were lost once environmental economics adopted a deductivist mathematical formalism. Kapp’s alternative theory is based on a classic institutionalists economic understanding of cost shifting and power relations. It advocates a public policy response in the form of objective social minima achieved via regulation and planning. This theory has until now been successfully supressed to prevent a potential revolutionary paradigm shift in economic price theory. |
| Keywords: | externalities; market failure, cost shifting; price theory; pollution; Pigou; Coase; Kapp; paradigm shift; environmental economics, neoclassical economics; institutional economics, neoliberal |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus009:8108&r= |
| By: | Kilian Huber |
| Abstract: | The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank size in postwar Germany. I show that firms did not grow faster after their relationship banks became bigger. In fact, opaque borrowers grew more slowly. The enlarged banks did not increase profits or efficiency, but worked with riskier borrowers. Bank managers benefited through higher salaries and media attention. The paper presents newly digitized microdata on German firms and their banks. Overall, the findings reveal that bigger banks do not always raise real growth and can actually harm some borrowers. |
| JEL: | E24 E44 G21 G28 L11 L25 N14 N24 N84 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28767&r= |
| By: | Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Zimmermann, Kaspar |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the expected return on equity and housing for 17 advanced economies between years 1870 and 2015. We show that the expected risky return has been in steady decline, but its trend is markedly different to that in the safe rate. As a consequence, the ex ante risk premium exhibits large secular movements, and risk premia and safe rates are strongly negatively correlated. Our findings suggest that time-varying risk appetite is a key driver of expected risky and safe returns - not only in the short, but also in the long run. |
| Keywords: | expected returns; long-run trends; real interest rates; return predictability; risk premia |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G12 G15 N20 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15610&r= |
| By: | Chambers, David; Spaenjers, Christophe; Steiner, Eva |
| Abstract: | Real estate-housing in particular-is a less profitable investment in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for the institutional real estate portfolios of four large Oxbridge colleges over the period 1901â??1983. Gross income yields initially fluctuate around 5%, but then trend downward (upward) for agricultural and residential (commercial) real estate. Long-term real income growth rates are close to zero for all property types. Our findings imply annualized real total returns, net of costs, ranging from approximately 2.3% for residential to 4.5% for agricultural real estate. |
| Keywords: | income growth; income yields; long-run returns; property prices; real estate |
| JEL: | G11 G23 N20 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15657&r= |