nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒04‒26
forty-one papers chosen by

  1. The Nexus of Elites and War Mobilization By Ying Bai; Ruixue Jia; Jiaojiao Yang
  2. Cliometrics: Past, Present, and Future. By Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert
  3. Birth and Migration of Scientists: Does Religiosity Matter? Evidence from 19th-Century France By Giampaolo Lecce; Laura Ogliari; Mara P. Squicciarini
  4. Trade in coinage, Gresham's Law, and the drive to monetary unification: the Holy Roman Empire, 1519-59 By Volckart, Oliver
  5. Juan Sebastián Elcano: 500 años de la Primera vuelta al mundo en los billetes del Banco de España. Historia y tecnología del billete By Ángel Gómez-Carreño García-Moreno
  6. How does international monetary leadership end? The Sterling Area revisited By De Bromhead, Alan; Jordan, David; Kennedy, Francis; Seddon, Jack
  7. Trend, Cycles and Chance. By Claude Diebolt
  8. Impact of Grain Export on the Russian Empire’s Industrial Development in the Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries By Rozinskaya Natalia; Arkhina Anna
  9. Dodging a Draft: Gary Becker's Lost Paper on Conscription By Gibbs, Michael; Perri, Tim
  10. Land reform and rural conflict: evidence from 1930s Spain By Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
  11. Enseñanza y aprendizaje universitario de la Ciencia Económica. La Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la UNCUYO en el siglo XX. Segunda parte By Luis Alberto Coria López; Adrián P.R. Velázquez
  12. Economist as public intellectual: Max Corden’s journey through life By Prema-chandra Athukorala; Hal Hill; Sisira Jayasuriya
  13. Inventing ‘infrastructure’: tracing the etymological blueprint of an omnipresent sociotechnical metaphor By Tribillon, Justinien
  14. Un ensayo sobre el núcleo del pensamiento acerca de las expectativas en Oskar Morgenstern: Un hombre hecho a sí mismo By Flavia G. Poinsot
  15. Do institutional transplants succeed? Regulating raiffeisen cooperatives in South India, 1930-1960 By Nath, Maanik
  16. Establishment History Panel 1975-2019 : revised Version (v2) from April 2021 By Ganzer, Andreas; Schmidtlein, Lisa; Stegmaier, Jens; Wolter, Stefanie
  17. The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists By Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Ricardo Marto
  18. Asian economic development: A primer By Prema-chandra Athukorala
  19. Gibrat's Law for Cities: Evidence from World War I Casualties By Antonio Ciccone
  20. Convergencia económica e industrial entre países. ¿Qué dice la evidencia? By Saúl N. Keifman; Diego Herrero
  21. Rawlsian Antitrust By Chris Pike
  22. The Costs of Hyperinflation: Germany 1923 By Gregori Galofre-Vila
  23. Board-related corporate governance practices and performance of Argentine banks By Martín Leandro Dutto Giolongo; Emiliano A. Carlevaro; Juan Jullier; Marcos Narváez
  24. The Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, 1947–1982 By Arnold C. Harberger; Sebastian Edwards
  25. Robert Mundell, 1932-2021: Ahead of his Time By Xafa, Miranda
  26. Quo Vadis Cliometrics? 20ème anniversaire de l’Association Française de Cliométrie : quand l’empreinte du passé est source de vie By Claude Diebolt
  27. How the Earnings Growth of U.S. Immigrants Was Underestimated By Duleep, Harriet; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark
  28. Real interest rates and demographic developments across generations: A panel-data analysis over two centuries By Lucas Marc Fuhrer; Nils Herger
  29. The Sleeping Giant Who Left for America: The Determinants and Impact of Danish Emigration During the Age of Mass Migration By Nina Boberg-Fazlić; Markus Lampe; Paul Sharp
  30. Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA. By Andrea Borsato
  31. Cliometrics: Past, Present, and Future By Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert
  32. Structural transformation and inequality: Does trade openness matter? By Wannaphong Durongkaveroj
  33. Homo domesticus : Une histoire profonde des premiers États By François Facchini
  34. Caño limón: bonanza petrolera, economía e instituciones en el departamento de Arauca By Daniela Cárdenas Sánchez; Cristian Camilo Dueñas Ruiz
  35. How Krugman forgot agriculture and misread the sources of Asia’s growth By Peter Warr
  36. Barro, Grossman, and the domination of equilibrium macroeconomics By Plassard, Romain
  37. The Bright and Dark Side of Financial Support from Local and Central Banks after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Great Kanto Earthquake, 1923 Japan By Tetsuji Okazaki; Toshihiro Okubo; Eric Strobl
  38. Macroeconomic disasters and forward-looking consumers: historical evidence and evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic By Lorenzo Pozzi; Barbara Sadaba
  39. On the Origins of the Demographic Transition. Rethinking the European Marriage Pattern By Faustine Perrin
  40. Life Expentancy at Birth and Lifetime Education and Earnings By Mohammad Mainul Hoque; Elizabeth King; Claudio E. Montenegro; Peter F. Orazem
  41. Civil Service Reform and Organizational Practices: Evidence from the Pendleton Act By Diana Moreira; Santiago Pérez

  1. By: Ying Bai; Ruixue Jia; Jiaojiao Yang
    Abstract: How do elites mobilize commoners to participate in a war? How does war mobilization affect elite power after the war? We argue that these two questions are interconnected, as elites mobilize war often because war benefits them. We demonstrate these relationships using the setting of the organization of the Hunan Army – an army organized by one Hunanese scholargeneral that suppressed the deadliest civil war in history, the Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864). We construct comprehensive datasets to depict the elites in the scholar-general’s pre-war network as well as the distribution of political power before and after the war. By examining how pre-war elite connections affected where soldiers who were killed came from, and subsequent shifts in the post-war distribution of political power toward the home counties of these very elites, we highlight a two-way nexus of elites and war mobilization: (i) elites used their personal network for mobilization; and (ii) network-induced mobilization elevated regional elites to the national political stage, where they influenced the fortunes of the country after the war.
    JEL: D74 H11 L14 N45 O11
    Date: 2021–04
  2. By: Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert
    Abstract: Cliometrics is the application of economic theory and quantitative methods to the study of economic history. The methodology rose to favor in economics departments in the 1960s. It grew to dominate the discipline over the next two decades, culminating in the awarding of the 1993 Nobel Prize in economics to two of its pioneers, Robert Fogel and Douglass North. Cliometrics has always had its share of critics, and some have blamed it for the diminished role that economic history had in economics programs in the 21st century.
    Keywords: Cliometrics, economic history, new economic history, multidisciplinary, methodology, quantitative.
    JEL: A12 N00 N01
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Giampaolo Lecce (Groningen University); Laura Ogliari (University of Milan); Mara P. Squicciarini (Bocconi University and CEPR)
    Abstract: Can religiosity affect the emergence and migration patterns of scientists? We focus on 19th-century France, a period in which the Catholic Church had embraced a particularly antiscientific attitude, and we exploit variation in intensity of Catholicism. Using data on the places of birth and death of famous individuals from 1790 to 1880, we show that more religious cantons were less likely to give birth to scientists, but religiosity did not play a role for their migration choices. We shed light on the mechanism and suggest that accumulation of scientific human capital earlier in life was key: religious vs. secular secondary education can partly explain the negative relationship between religiosity and the “birth” of scientists. Finally, placebo regressions show that religiosity is not associated with the birth and migration patterns of famous individuals in nonscientific professions—nor is it associated with the emergence of scientific human capital in the pre-1790 period.
    Keywords: Religiosity, Scientific Development, Upper-Tail Human Capital
    JEL: J24 N13 Z12
    Date: 2021–04–14
  4. By: Volckart, Oliver
    Abstract: Research on premodern monetary unions has so far started out from the idea that such unions were designed to promote trade and economic integration. The present paper demonstrates that this in an anachronistic misconception. Premodern monetary unions were the answer to political and fiscal problems caused by Gresham’s Law in a monetary environment characterised permeable borders and by the increasing integration of currency markets. As integration advanced significantly in the fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, the regional monetary unions that had been formed in the late medieval Holy Roman Empire were increasingly insufficient to address these problems. This is why the imperial estates were interested in creating and Empire-wide common currency – an aim they reached at the end of the 1550s.
    JEL: N0 J1
    Date: 2021–04
  5. By: Ángel Gómez-Carreño García-Moreno (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This paper guides us through a historic feat: the first circumnavigation of the Earth, completed by Juan Sebastián Elcano. 2021 marks the 500th anniversary of this heroic voyage, which was the result of the expedition to the Moluccas initiated by Ferdinand Magellan (1519-1521). To commemorate this historic event, the Banco de España, with its vast banknote collection, is conducting an informative study aimed at disseminating the strong link between technology and banknote production. In this case, it focuses on two very specific historical banknotes. Firstly, the 500-peseta banknote of the April 25, 1931 series and, secondly, the five-peseta banknote of the March 5, 1948 series. Both are devoted to the Getaria-born captain, thus enshrining him as one of Spain’s most important historical figures. The composition of both banknotes, their security features and the printing technologies used are studied in detail. Through an historiographical lens, an overview of the historical context and reason for the expedition and the way in which it unfolded is also provided.
    Keywords: banknote, expedition, technology, numismatics, first voyage around the world, Elcano, Banco de España UNESCO classification: 530406, 531208, 550402, 550404, 550506, 550624, 550606
    JEL: E52 E58 L69 N64 N74
    Date: 2021–04
  6. By: De Bromhead, Alan; Jordan, David; Kennedy, Francis; Seddon, Jack
    Abstract: How does international monetary leadership end? This paper examines the decline of the Sterling Area between 1945 and 1979 to understand the process of international economic disintegration. Using an original cross-national panel dataset, we conduct survival analysis which systematically evaluates a comprehensive set of economic and political factors about when and why countries chose to leave the Sterling Area. We find that membership of the Sterling Area was determined by multidimensional aspects. Our results highlight the significance of international economic and geopolitical factors, such as trade and diplomatic alignment, on the decision to leave. However we also find that domestic political and historical factors, such as democracy and imperial legacy, played a role in the Sterling Area's unravelling. Finally, we use our results to examine the experience of individual countries and their decisions to leave the Sterling Area. Revisiting this history of a gradually dissolving economic order, played out in the shadow of Britain's waning imperial and economic power, has cautionary implications for the future of the US dollar order.
    Keywords: The Sterling Area,international monetary regime,internationalcurrency,sterling,decline,disintegration
    JEL: N10 F02 F22 F33
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Claude Diebolt
    Abstract: This paper is about the book Trend, Zyklus und Zufall. Bestimmungsgründe und Verlaufsformen langfristiger Wachstumsschwankungen (2002) written by Rainer Metz. It rehabilitates Metz’s somewhat forgotten milestone in the quantitative history literature on economic cycles. For me, it represents an indispensable standard work for anyone who wants to work in this field.
    Keywords: Cliometrics, Economic history, Time series.
    JEL: C01 C22 C32 C82 N01 N14
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Rozinskaya Natalia (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Arkhina Anna (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the problem of the grain export impact on Russia’s industrial development in the late 19th and early 20th century. Authors estimated VECM models to analyze how grain export affected industrial growth. It was concluded that grain export had a long-term negative impact on industry growth in Russia. There are four possible channels of influence: through consumption, through savings, through the distribution of labor and through investment. The authors considered the investment-related channel of influence and concluded that grain export had a negative long-term impact on industrial capital. Their argument stems from the fact that at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, grain exporters were predominantly small, export profits were widely dispersed among intermediaries and traders preferred to invest not in Russia but elsewhere.
    Keywords: grain export, foreign trade, industrial development, Russia Empire, VECM
    JEL: N5 N13
    Date: 2021–04
  9. By: Gibbs, Michael (University of Chicago); Perri, Tim (Appalachian State University)
    Abstract: Gary Becker wrote what may be the first economic analysis of conscription. Less than a decade later, economists played a key role in an important public policy debate during the Vietnam War, which eventually led to abolishment of the military draft. Becker had connections to many of those economists who studied the economics of conscription, and his paper foreshadowed many of the ideas in that literature. Despite this, none cited his paper on conscription. We discuss this history and speculate on this puzzle.
    Keywords: conscription, labor market public policy
    JEL: M5
    Date: 2021–04
  10. By: Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
    Abstract: We use a novel high-frequency, municipality-level dataset to examine the impact of land reform on rural conflict in 1930s Spain, a classical example of property rights reform in a developing economy. We distinguish between types of implementation and consider five types of conflicts: land invasions, peasant strikes, clashes, petty theft and attacks on land owner assets. By performing a differences-indifferences regression analysis, we document three main results. First, overall, land reform only increased the number of reported petty thefts, lasting around two years, followed by a reversion to pre-reform levels. Second, the effects of land reform depend on its implementation. A technical implementation was conducive, if anything, to fewer conflicts (clashes and attacks). In contrast, a more political implementation (which gave, on average, less land per peasant) increased reported petty theft sand, to a lower extent, attacks on owners'assets. Third, we provide suggestive evidence that the fall in income of settlers (the, a priori, benefficiaries) explains the increase in social conflict. Our results highlight the importance of the design and implementation of social policies, especially in the context of an agrarian economy.
    Keywords: Spain; Interwar Europe; Conflict; Land Reform; Property Rights
    JEL: Q28 Q24 Q10 P14 O13 N54
    Date: 2021–04–15
  11. By: Luis Alberto Coria López; Adrián P.R. Velázquez
    Abstract: El presente trabajo constituye la segunda parte de la historia de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y su impacto particularmente sobre la región, pero también en otros ámbitos. En este tramo se revisa el período 1972-1989 analizando la estructura, profesores e influencia política sobre el ámbito académico y sus resultados medidos a través de la actuación de sus graduados en el medio que les tocó desempeñarse, básicamente a nivel global pero también individual en algunos casos destacados.
    Keywords: ciencias económicas, UNCUYO, 1939-1989, impacto, economía regional
    JEL: A2 N0
    Date: 2020–11
  12. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala; Hal Hill; Sisira Jayasuriya
    Abstract: This paper examines the intellectual contributions of Professor W. M. (‘Max’) Corden to Economics. We focus on three main fields: trade theory and practice, especially his pioneering work on the theory of effective protection; open economy macroeconomics, including exchange rate policy, the international monetary system, Dutch Disease, and economic crises; and Australian economic policy. We emphasize Max’s motivation for working on these topics, as he sought to understand real-world economic issues and challenges, and to employ economic theory and expositional clarity in search of policy reform. We also draw attention to his personal life history, and how it has shaped his thinking on major economic and political questions.
    Keywords: Max Corden, trade theory, open economy macroeconomics, biography, public policy, Australia.
    JEL: A11 B31 Z18
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Tribillon, Justinien
    Abstract: This article proposes an archaeology of the concept of ‘infrastructure’, focusing specifically on a period ranging from 1842 until 1951, before the term entered the English language from French. In doing so, it contributes to an ongoing discussion on ‘What does infrastructure really mean?’ by deconstructing the omnipresent concept of ‘infrastructure’ as an expression of modernity that has crystallised a sociotechnical imaginary: a relation between technology, space and power. Indeed, our understanding of its etymological, epistemological and intellectual origins is patchy, based on repeated chronological mistakes and conceptual misunderstandings. To put it bluntly: we do not know how the word came to be. By unearthing the origins of ‘infrastructure’, this article aims to contribute to scholarly debates on the definition(s) of infrastructure in social sciences, urban studies, science and technology studies and infrastructure studies. It also wishes to contribute to ongoing debates taking place in the public sphere regarding what should count as ‘infrastructure’. This paper’s findings demonstrate a clear relation to Karl Marx’s ‘historical materialism’; the paper also analyses how the word evolved over a short period of time to become sociotechnical metaphor; finally, the paper demonstrates the emergence of a concept that linked engineering to larger socioeconomic concerns in the 1890s, well before the emergence of ‘infrastructure’ as a key concept of development economics in the 1950s.
    Date: 2021–04–18
  14. By: Flavia G. Poinsot
    Abstract: La revolución de las expectativas racionales se atribuye principalmente a Robert Lucas Jr. quien desarrolla sus trabajos desde principio de los 1970s sobre el trabajo seminal de Muth de 1960s. Sin embargo, al leer los escritos de Morgenstern muchas de las ideas contenidas en sus escritos captan con la misma penetración la esencia de las expectativas racionales. Inmerso en el debate de su época sobre las condiciones necesarias y suficientes para el equilibrio general y mezclando ejemplos que él considera “triviales” con sutilezas filosóficas y nociones de lógica, amalgama la idea de que, bajo incertidumbre, existen pronósticos imperfectos en base a los cuales se crean las expectativas. Incorporando conocimientos los individuos se acercan a las predicciones de la teoría, coincidiendo el núcleo de su pensamiento con la esencia de las expectativas racionales. Sin embargo, Morgenstern queda en el margen de la corriente del pensamiento económico. En este ensayo se intenta volver a poner en escena esas ideas, creadas en el entorno del sombrío sendero que lleva a Morgenstern desde la vida que vivió hasta las ideas que creó, analizando los puntos de contacto con el concepto de racionalidad en Muth y la formación de las expectativas en Lucas y Sargent.
    JEL: B53 D84
    Date: 2020–11
  15. By: Nath, Maanik
    Abstract: The government in British-ruled India established cooperative banks to compete with private moneylenders in the rural credit market. State officials expected greater competition to increase the supply of low-cost credit, thereby expanding investment potential for the rural poor. Cooperatives did increase credit supply but captured a small share of the credit market and reported net losses throughout the late colonial and early postcolonial period. The article asks why this experiment did not succeed and offers two explanations. First, low savings restricted the role of social capital and mutual supervision as methods of financial regulation in the cooperative sector. Second, a political-economic ideology that privileged equity over efficiency made for weak administrative regulation.
    Keywords: agriculture; colonialism; India; institutional change; rural banking
    JEL: N25
    Date: 2021–03–16
  16. By: Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schmidtlein, Lisa (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Stegmaier, Jens (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Wolter, Stefanie (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "The Establishment History Panel (BHP) is composed of cross sectional datasets since 1975 for West Germany and 1992 for East Germany. Every cross section contains all the establishments in Germany which are covered by the IAB Employment History (BeH) on June 30th. These are all establishments with at least one employee liable to social security on the reference date. Establishments with no employee liable to social security but with at least one marginal part-time employee are included since 1999. The cross sections can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Establishment History Panel (BHP) 1975-2019." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information DOI: 10.5164/IAB.FDZD.2016.en.v2 Frequencies and labels Deutschsprachige Version FDZ-Datenreport , 16/2020 (de)
    Keywords: IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenaufbereitung, Datenqualität, Stichprobe, Imputationsverfahren, Datenanonymisierung, Datenzugang
    Date: 2021–04–16
  17. By: Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Ricardo Marto
    Abstract: The 20th century beheld a dramatic transformation of the family. Some Kuznets style facts regarding structural change in the family are presented. Over the course of the 20th century in the United States fertility declined, educational attainment waxed, housework fell, leisure increased, jobs shifted from blue to white collar, and marriage waned. These trends are also observed in the cross-country data. A model is developed, and then calibrated, to address the trends in the US data. The calibration procedure is closely connected to the underlying economic logic. Three drivers of the great transition are considered: neutral technological progress, skilled-biased technological change, and drops in the price of labor-saving household durables.
    JEL: D10 E13 J10 O10
    Date: 2021–04
  18. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala
    Abstract: During the post-World War 11 era, the process of economic transformation in Asia has been more rapid and extensive than in any other region in the world. With the Asia-wide embrace of market-oriented policy reforms and following the meteoric rise of China and India’s awakening from economic slumber, the twenty-first century has come to be labelled the ‘Asian Century’. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the nonspecialized reader to a selection of published papers that provides a comprehensive picture of economic policymaking and performance of these countries. The compilation of the collection was motivated by both the economic significance of the region in the global economy and the pivotal role played by Asia-focused research in the enrichment of the subject area of development economics. The papers have been carefully selected to help the reader to understand political and economic underpinnings of the Asian economic dynamism in general and notable differences in economic progress among the Asian countries.
    Keywords: Asian century, economic development, structural chnage
    JEL: O10 O40 O53 F02
    Date: 2021
  19. By: Antonio Ciccone
    Abstract: According to Gibrat’s law for cities, population shocks have permanent effects on city size. I examine this implication by analysing the persistence of observed population shocks: German military casualties in WWI by municipality of birth. I find a strong negative effect of military casualties on the male population of municipalities just after WWI. This effect persists to 1933 and, outside of the most agricultural municipalities, beyond. The effect on female population and the number of households is similar to the effect on male population by 1950, when women in the generation that fought WWI started reaching their life expectancy.
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Saúl N. Keifman; Diego Herrero
    Abstract: En primer lugar, se puso a prueba la hipótesis de convergencia absoluta en el crecimiento del producto trabajador en una muestra grande de países para 1950-2014. La hipótesis es rechazada por la evidencia econométrica en 1950-2000, pero no puede rechazarse en 2000-2014. Por otra parte, la varianza de los logaritmos de los productos por trabajador de los países muestra desde 1950 un proceso de divergencia hasta el año 2000, y convergencia desde entonces. En segunda instancia, se puso a prueba el resultado obtenido por Rodrik (2013) de convergencia absoluta en el producto por trabajador en la industria manufacturera y no convergencia en el producto por trabajador en la economía en su conjunto, En contraste con el hallazgo de Rodrik, encontramos que las productividades del trabajo convergen o divergen simultáneamente en la industria y en la economía como un todo, ya sea por medio de regresiones de convergencia como por la evolución de la varianza de los logaritmos de los productos por trabajador.
    JEL: O47
    Date: 2020–11
  21. By: Chris Pike (Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to reconcile the goals of competition and equality within antitrust, and in doing so, suggests that this task can be seen to correspond to the efforts that John Rawls made to reconcile liberalism and equality within his principles of justice. Applying a Rawlsian analysis to this problem, I propose the adoption of inclusivity as a secondary objective within competition law (not as an additional primary objective, as for example under a public interest test), and suggest that this approach might therefore be labelled Rawlsian Antitrust. In locating this approach amongst the existing established schools of thought, I emphasise both its economic basis, and the clarity of its values, and how the reconciliation between those might be operationalised. I identify the existence of both pro-enforcement and more cautious factions within this approach. However, I suggest that identifying the common ground between them might form the basis for enabling competition policy to contribute to the fight for greater inclusivity, arguably the great challenge of our time, which was first stirred, and then made urgent by successive crisis that have shaken our world, and which now threaten to burn down the technocratic antitrust chateau.
    Date: 2021–04–15
  22. By: Gregori Galofre-Vila (Departamento de Economia - UPNA)
    Abstract: I study the link between monetary policy and populism by looking at the hyperinflation in Germany in 1923, one of the worst spells of inflation in history, and the Nazi electoral boost in 1933. Contrary to received wisdom, inflation data for over 500 cities show that areas more affected by inflation did not see a higher vote share for the Nazi party in each and every German federal election between 1924 and 1933. Yet, the inflation does predict the vote share of the Volksrechtspartei, an association-turned-party of inflation victims, and the vote share of the Social Democrats. In places where hyper-inflation was higher, mortality and anti-Semitism also increased. Unobservables are unlikely to account for these results.
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Martín Leandro Dutto Giolongo; Emiliano A. Carlevaro; Juan Jullier; Marcos Narváez
    Abstract: We propose a novel approach to understand the industrialization pattern of MERCOSUR countries during the last 60 years. We perform an index to measure the geographical bias of manufactured exports between the region and the world and show that regional trade agreements allowed MERCOSUR countries to decrease de bias and increase competitiveness. However, we show that in recent years the bias deepened in favor of exporting to the region a higher proportion of manufactured goods. Our main result is that these economies present a U-shape geographical bias in manufactured exports associated with a bimodal distribution of breaks. Furthermore, we observe that the 1980 and 2000s were the most relevant periods for defining the region trends.
    Keywords: Board-related corporate governance practices and performance of Argentine banks
    JEL: G3 G34 G31
    Date: 2020–11
  24. By: Arnold C. Harberger; Sebastian Edwards
    Abstract: This paper is about the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, between 1947 and 1982. The paper has the form of a conversation between the two authors and covers issues such as the existence of a “Chicago School,” the Department’s governance, the personalities of some well-known members such as Frank Knight, Milton Friedman, and Robert Mundell, teaching, and the “Chicago boys.” It also deals with the relation between members of the Department and those of other leading Schools.
    Keywords: Chicago School, Milton Friedman, monetarism, Frederik Hayek
    Date: 2021–04
  25. By: Xafa, Miranda (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)
    Abstract: I met Bob Mundell in Washington in 1982, when I was already working at the International Monetary Fund, at a conference on the international monetary system. My first impression was the absolute confidence with which he expressed his views. When one of the participants in his panel claimed that the data did not confirm his views, he responded: "If the data do not confirm my views, then the data are wrong." I had the chance to follow his life and career, and to participate in the conferences he organized and chaired in the last two decades in his beloved Palazzo Mundell in Tuscany where he lived. Mundell pioneered the theory that serves as the basis for the design and implementation of economic policies in open economies. He extended the Keynesian closed-economy model, which focused on the relationship between interest rates and output, to open economies by introducing a third dimension: the exchange rate and capital mobility. It is hard to appreciate today his pathbreaking thinking on economic issues that had yet to emerge, at a time when the world was dominated by fixed exchange rates and capital controls. His research formed the foundation of international macroeconomics. In awarding him the 1999 Nobel prize in economics, the Swedish Academy of Sciences notes that: " His contribution to monetary theory and optimum currency areas remains outstanding and has inspired generations of researchers. Mundell chose the problems he analyzed with almost prophetic accuracy, predicting the future course of the international monetary system and international capital markets".
    Date: 2021–04
  26. By: Claude Diebolt (University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France)
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Duleep, Harriet; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark
    Abstract: Two radically different descriptions of immigrant earnings trajectories in the U.S. have emerged. One asserts that immigrant men following the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act have low initial earnings and high earnings growth. Another asserts that post-1965 immigrants have low initial earnings and low earnings growth. We describe the methodological issues that create this divide and show that low earnings growth becomes high earnings growth when immigrants are followed from their initial years in the U.S., earnings growth is allowed to vary with entry earnings, and-when following cohorts instead of individuals-sample restrictions commonly used by labor economists are avoided.
    Keywords: Sample restrictions,immigrant earning growth,human capital investment,the U.S. census
    JEL: J1 J2 J3 C1
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Lucas Marc Fuhrer; Nils Herger
    Abstract: This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on long-term real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous and surprisingly unstable. As the demographic interest rate impact is theoretically based on intergenerational relationships, we not only contemplate gross population growth rates but also distinguish between demographic growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, our results suggest that there is a positive, statistically significant, and stable effect from the birth surplus on real interest rates. Conversely, the corresponding effect of net migration seems to be much more volatile. Hence, our results suggest that it is mainly population growth occurring through a birth surplus that affects the equilibrium real interest rate.
    Keywords: Demographics, population growth, real interest rate
    JEL: E43 E52 J11
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Nina Boberg-Fazlić (University of Southern Denmark); Markus Lampe (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, CEPR); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: What determines emigration, and what impact does it have on the sending country? We consider the case of Denmark between 1868 and 1908, when a large number of people left for America. A significant fraction of these were tyender, a servant-like occupational group that was heavily discriminated against at the time, and who saw little opportunities for advancement at home. We exploit the fact that the Danish agrarian reforms between 1784 and 1807 had differential impacts on this class of landless laborers around the country, and use detailed parish-level data – police protocols of emigrants; population censuses and land registers – to show that areas with a more unequal distribution of land witnessed larger emigration. We then use income tax data, finding evidence of a positive income effect on the areas which saw most emigration.
    Keywords: Agrarian reform, Denmark, emigration, landless laborers
    JEL: J15 N33 O15
    Date: 2021–04
  30. By: Andrea Borsato
    Abstract: The paper adds to the debate around Secular Stagnation in four ways. First, considering US historical data since 1870, the use of the term “Secular Stagnation” in the literature is misleading, since it should concern more long runs. Second, the slow growth in real GDP per capita experienced in more recent times represents a return to what US experienced before 1950. Third, we can speak about Secular Stagnation in terms of labour and multifactor productivity growth: their decline since the 1970s is not comparable to any previous period. In this sense, my findings provide views `a la Gordon (2015) and Hein (2016) with some support, but less to Summers (2014b) negative natural rate hypothesis, which suffers from theoretical weaknesses. Fourth, despite the several approaches often implemented, we trace out a complementary or even convergence in policy implications.
    Keywords: Secular Stagnation, Negative interest rates, GDP and Productivity slowdown in growth.
    JEL: E20 E43 E50 E60 O11 O30 O40
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Claude Diebolt (University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France); Michael Haupert (University of Wisconsin-La Crosse)
    Date: 2021
  32. By: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine how trade openness impacts on income inequality in the process of economic transformation. The paper begins with an analytical framework drawing on Kuznets (1955) to set the stage for the empirical analysis. It then examines the role of trade openness in the structural transformation-income inequality nexus using a multicountry panel data analysis covering 48 countries for the period from 1960 to 2010. The results suggest that an increase in the share of employment in manufacturing reduces inequality, irrespective of the stages of structural transformation, and the impact on income inequality is larger for countries with higher degree of trade openness. The findings withstand controlling for the other relevant explanatory variables and the use of different estimators.
    Keywords: structural change, inequality, trade openness, inequality
    JEL: O10 O24 O53
    Date: 2021
  33. By: François Facchini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This bookreview presents the James C. Scott's thesis about the origin of State and discusses its relevance to the defense of the ethics of freedom.
    Abstract: Cette note de lecture présente la thèse défendue par James C. Scott puis discute de son intérêt pour les défenseurs de l'éthique de la liberté.
    Keywords: origine de l'Etat,blé,impôt,soumission,agriculture fugitive
    Date: 2020
  34. By: Daniela Cárdenas Sánchez; Cristian Camilo Dueñas Ruiz
    Abstract: El descubrimiento del yacimiento petrolífero de Caño Limón en 1983 fomentó una bonanza sin precedentes en la historia de Arauca. No obstante, dicho departamento mantiene hoy rezagos fundamentales en términos económicos y sociales. El presente texto busca determinar el impacto del descubrimiento y posterior explotación del yacimiento Caño Limón sobre la economía de Arauca. Desde un enfoque institucionalista, se realiza un análisis estadístico-descriptivo sobre el comportamiento de la explotación petrolera, el crecimiento económico y los indicadores socioeconómicos durante los períodos de 1990 a 2005 y de 2005 a 2018, para los departamentos de Arauca, Meta y Casanare, y los 7 municipios araucanos. A partir de ello, se concluye que el impacto económico del descubrimiento y explotación de Caño Limón fue limitado, en términos de crecimiento y bienestar de la población, debido a la debilidad de las instituciones locales. *** The discovery of the Caño Limón oilfield in 1983 triggered an unprecedented bonanza in Arauca’s history. Today, however, this region lags behind in economic and social terms. This paper seeks to determine the impact of the discovery and subsequent exploitation of the Caño Limón oilfield on Arauca’s economy. From an institutional approach, a statistical-descriptive analysis is carried out on the behaviour of oil exploitation, economic growth, and socioeconomic indicators during the periods 1990 to 2005 and 2005 to 2018, for the departments of Arauca, Meta and Casanare, and the seven Araucanian municipalities. From this, it is concluded that the economic impact of the discovery and exploitation of Caño Limón was limited, in terms of growth and well-being of the population, due to the weakness of local institutions.
    Keywords: instituciones, bonanza petrolera, crecimiento, desarrollo, bienestar
    JEL: N56 N76 O43 Q02
    Date: 2021–04–15
  35. By: Peter Warr
    Abstract: In his famous 1994 essay ‘The Myth of Asia’s Miracle’, Paul Krugman argued that the growth of output per person in Asia was due almost entirely to increasing primary factor inputs per head of population – raising labour force participation and adding capital to labour. He called this ‘perspiration’, which he distinguished from ‘inspiration’ – productivity growth derived from technical change. According to Krugman’s sources, the latter contributed very little. The article rightly discounted the ‘miracle’ rhetoric that had been applied to Asia’s rapid economic growth over the preceding two decades, but it missed a key point. By focusing on the economic record of enclave, city-based economies like Singapore and Hong Kong, which lack traditional agriculture, Krugman overlooked the role of agriculture and the process of structural transformation. This is the mechanism through which workers relocate from low-productivity employment in agriculture to higher-productivity employment in industry and, more especially, services, raising overall labour productivity. The present paper demonstrates the importance of this matter, using data for Thailand and Indonesia. It shows that structural transformation contributed 47 per cent of long-term growth of labour productivity in Thailand and 28 per cent in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Asia’s miracle; structural transformation; productivity growth; agriculture; Thailand; Indonesia
    JEL: O13 O47 O53
    Date: 2021
  36. By: Plassard, Romain
    Abstract: Under which conditions did Robert Lucas’s microfoundational program come to dominate the field? My article sheds new light on this question. The focus is on why models incorporating rational expectations and market-clearing seduced macroeconomists. My case study is Robert Barro and Herschel Grossman. Drawing on Grossman’s archives, I define a framework for explaining their modeling choices. I show that methodological principles, tractability constraints, and research strategies explained why, at the end of the 1970s, Barro and Grossman preferred equilibrium over disequilibrium macroeconomics.
    Keywords: fluctuations, non-neutrality of money, fixed-price equilibrium models, contract theory, disequilibrium macroeconomics, equilibrium macroeconomics
    JEL: B21 B22 B23 E10 E32
    Date: 2021–04–15
  37. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo, Japan); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Japan); Eric Strobl (Department of Economics, Bern University, Switzerland)
    Abstract: Natural disasters can seriously damage firms as well as the banks that they use independent of their size. However, it is small- and medium-sized firms in particular that will be affected by this because they tend to be financially constrained and thus greatly depend on these potentially damaged local banks for financing. In this paper, we focus on the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, which resulted in serious damage to small- and medium-sized firms and banks in Yokohama City, to investigate how effective the provision of loans by local banks, as well as the Earthquake Bills policy implemented by the Bank of Japan, was in helping firms recover. Using linked firm- and bank-level datasets, we find that larger local banks allowed damaged firms to survive and grow. The Earthquake Bills policy mitigated the negative impact of bank damage on firms and prevented credit crunch, although this deteriorated the balance sheet of local banks and resulted in financial instability and a banking crisis as a side effect.
    Date: 2021–04
  38. By: Lorenzo Pozzi (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Barbara Sadaba (Bank of Canada)
    Abstract: Macroeconomic disasters (wars, pandemics, depressions) are characterized by drastic shifts and increased volatility of the aggregate consumption to income ratio. By standard intertemporal budget constraint logic, this ratio is linked to expectations of future income and consumption growth rates. We investigate whether these expectations suffice to explain the shifts in the consumption-income ratio that occur during disaster periods or whether, on the other hand, consumers become more forward-looking and therefore give more weight to these expectations during disaster times. Our theoretical framework implies that the predictive ability of the current consumption-income ratio for future income and consumption growth rates is higher during disaster episodes. We check this both for past disasters and the current Covid-19 pandemic through the estimation of panel data regressions for industrial economies using historical annual data (1870 - 2015) and recent quarterly data (1995Q1 - 2020Q4). Our estimations confirm that macroeconomic disasters, contrary to ordinary recessions, make consumers more forward-looking.
    Keywords: consumption, saving, macroeconomic disasters, Covid-19, panel data
    JEL: C23 E21
    Date: 2021–04–19
  39. By: Faustine Perrin (University of Strasbourg, France & Department of Economic History, Center for Economic Demography, Lund University, Sweden.)
    Date: 2021
  40. By: Mohammad Mainul Hoque; Elizabeth King; Claudio E. Montenegro; Peter F. Orazem
    Abstract: Exploiting cross-birth-cohort and cross-country variation from a pool of 188 household surveys from 111 countries, we measure how life expectancy at birth affects lifetime education and earnings. On average, individuals add one year of schooling for every 8.3 years of increased life expectancy at birth. Lifetime-earnings increases by 1.7% per year of added life expectancy at birth. Estimates imply that rising life expectancy at birth can explain 75% of the increase in average years of schooling world-wide for birth cohorts between 1922-1987 and 38% of the increase in average GDP per capita in the 20 th century.
    Date: 2020–08
  41. By: Diana Moreira; Santiago Pérez
    Abstract: Competitive exams are a standard method for selecting civil servants. Yet, evidence on the effectiveness of such approach is mixed, and lack of personnel data limits our understanding of the mechanisms underlying this varying success. We digitize personnel and financial data to study the impacts of the 1883 Pendleton Act, which mandated exams for some employees in the largest US customs-collection districts. The reform improved targeted employees' professional background and reduced turnover. However, it did not increase cost-effectiveness in revenue collection. An unintended consequence of the reform was to induce hiring in exempted positions, provoking distortions in districts' personnel structure. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of all involved parties when designing reforms.
    JEL: H83 N41
    Date: 2021–04

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.