nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒04‒05
29 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. The Smoot-Hawley Trade War By Kris James Mitchener; Kirsten Wandschneider; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  2. Industrialization and Urbanization in Nineteenth Century America By Jeremy Atack; Robert A. Margo; Paul Rhode
  3. Historical cycles of the economy of modern Greece from 1821 to the present By Alogoskoufis, George
  4. Faillites, licenciements et crise : analyse économique 1968-1979 By Luc Marco
  5. Fictitious commodification and agrarian change: indigenous peoples and land markets in Highland Ecuador By Goodwin, Geoff
  6. Southern and Northern Italy in the Great Divergence: New Perspectives from the Occupational Structure By David Chilosi; Carlo Ciccarelli
  7. JHET Interviews: Karen Vaughn By Caldwell, Bruce
  8. The reception of Adam Smith in Japan: the formation of the idea of Shimin Shakai, or civil society, by Zenya Takashima before the end of World War II By Nohara, Shinji
  9. Testing Marx. Income Inequality, Concentration, and Socialism in Late 19th Century Germany By Bartels, Charlotte; Kersting, Felix; Wolf, Nikolaus
  10. The Madman and the Economist(s): Georges Bataille and François Perroux as French Critiques of the Marshall Plan By Fèvre, Raphaël
  11. The Man Who Discovered Capitalism: A Documentary on Schumpeter for Use in the Classroom By Dalton, John; Logan, Andrew
  12. Humility’s Challenge: The Political Value of Disperse Individual Experience in F. A. Hayek’s Thought By Daniel Fernando Zarama Rojas
  13. Female economists and philosophers’ role in Amartya Sen’s thought: his colleagues and his scholars By Erasmo, Valentina
  14. Théorie et politique économiques à l’épreuve des crises. Essai sur les fondements économiques du libéralisme social. By Jean-Luc Gaffard
  15. Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History By Fraser Summerfield; Livio Di Matteo
  16. The Smoot-Hawley Trade War By Kris James Mitchener Author e-mail:; Kirsten Wandschneider Author e-mail:; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke Author e-mail:
  17. Alfred Marshall, autor del siglo XX: desempleo involuntario, monopolio, amortización acelerada, competencia por nuevos productos e intervención estatal orientada a alcanzar el producto máximo By Joan-Severo Chumbita
  18. Oh, How the Mighty Have Fallen: The Bank Failures and Near Failures That Started America’s Greatest Financial Panics By Hugh Rockoff
  19. Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-War Czechoslovakia By Jakub Grossmann; Štĕpán Jurajda; Felix Roesel
  20. ‘Luxury beyond morals’: the rise and transformation of the concept in 18th century Russia By Korchmina, Elena; Kiselev, Mikhail
  21. Legislative production and public spending in France By François Facchini; Elena Seghezza
  22. El excedente económico en economías periféricas: una perspectiva teórica desde los aportes de Baran, Prebisch y Furtado By Manuel Rubio-García; Santiago Castaño-Salas
  23. Long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Spanish economy, 1830-1998 By Rafael Emilio Congregado; Vicente Esteve
  24. Volatility and Economic Systems: Evidence from A Large Transitional Economy By Wang, Boqun; Yang, Dennis Tao
  25. América Latina y la historia intelectual de la economía del desarrollo By Jérôme Sgard
  26. Is slow economic growth originating from the total external debt stock in the Democratic Republic of Congo? By Mupenda, Olivier Munene
  27. The “Place Of The Phillips Curve” in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the First Federal Reserve Board’s Model (1966-1980s) By Rancan, Antonella
  28. Explaining Trends in Adult Height in China: 1950 to 1990 By Minhee Chae; Tim Hatton; Xin Meng
  29. Breve storia delle barriere agli scambi in Italia By Matteo Gomellini

  1. By: Kris James Mitchener; Kirsten Wandschneider; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: We document the outbreak of a trade war after the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested the possible implementation of the sweeping tariff legislation, with many eventually choosing to retaliate by increasing their tariffs on imports from the United States. Using a new quarterly dataset on bilateral trade for 99 countries during the interwar period, we show that U.S. exports to countries that protested fell by between 15 and 22 percent, while U.S. exports to retaliators fell by 28-33 percent. Furthermore, using a second new dataset on U.S. exports at the product-level, we find that the most important U.S. exports to retaliating markets were particularly affected, suggesting a possible mechanism whereby the U.S. was targeted despite countries’ MFN obligations. The retaliators’ welfare gains from trade fell by roughly 8-17%.
    Keywords: trade wars, gravity model, Smoot-Hawley, Great Depression
    JEL: F13 F14 N70
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Jeremy Atack; Robert A. Margo; Paul Rhode
    Abstract: During the nineteenth century the United States urbanized – the share of the population living in urban areas increased – and industrialized – the share of the labor force in manufacturing increased. Our survey of the literature and analyses of census data suggests that a key reason was the development of a nationwide transportation system, especially the railroad. Coupled with changes in manufacturing technology and organizational form, the “transportation revolution” increased demand for manufacturing labor in urban locations. Labor supply responded and because of agglomeration economies, population density and the size and number of urban places increased. Although our focus is on the US experience, a causal role for transportation is likely for other economies that experienced historical industrialization and urbanization.
    JEL: N61 N91
    Date: 2021–03
  3. By: Alogoskoufis, George
    Abstract: This paper reviews and interprets the history of the economy of modern Greece, from the eve of the war for independence in 1821 to the present day. It identifies three major historical cycles: First, the cycle of state and nation building, 1821-1898, second, the cycle of national expansion and consolidation, 1899-1949, and third, the post-1950 cycle of economic and social development. During these two hundred years, the country and the economy have been radically transformed. Compared to the first Greek state, Greece managed to almost triple its national territory, to increase its population by almost 15 times and to increase its real GDP per capita by another 15 times. From the margins of south-eastern Europe, it has moved to the core of today’s European Union. The paper focuses on the main determinants of economic performance during these cycles, with particular emphasis on the role and interactions of social and economic conditions, ideas, institutions and geopolitics. During the first two cycles, the economy underperformed, as state building and the pursuit of the ‘great idea’ were the top national priorities. Despite the early introduction of appropriate economic institutions, fiscal and monetary instability prevailed in the context of a relatively stagnant economy, due to wars, internal conflicts and the international environment. The economy and the welfare state only became a top priority during the third cycle, when a number of domestic and international factors contributed to economic and social development. Greece seems to have largely achieved many of its national goals, having consolidated both its borders and democratic institutions and become a relatively prosperous country in the core of the European union, despite the alternation of triumphs and disasters and the frequent occurrence of wars and internal conflicts, debt crises, ‘defaults’ or economic depressions. Yet many problems remain and the challenge for the future is to focus on reforms that will ensure even higher security and prosperity for the future generations of Greeks.
    Keywords: modern Greece; economic history; institutions; economic growth; fiscal policy; monetary policy
    JEL: N0 E6 R14 J01
    Date: 2021–04–01
  4. By: Luc Marco (IHPM - Institut d'Histoire et de Prospective du Management)
    Abstract: Les crises économiques ont toujours caractérisé le capitalisme industriel et commercial. Des auteurs comme Clément Juglar (1862) ou Kondratieff (1928) ont montré que le principal indicateur de crise est la faillite d'un nombre très important d'entreprises. Ces faillites se traduisent soit par le redémarrage de la firme après apurement de ses dettes et renouvellement de son personnel, soit par la disparition pure et simple de l'entité. Mais à la fin du dix-neuvième siècle un autre phénomène est apparu : le capitalisme financier, c'est-à-dire l'union entre l'industrie et la finance. Cette union avait été pressentie par Karl Marx en 1867, mais c'est son disciple Rudolf Hilferding qui l'analysa le mieux dès 1910. Les grandes crises économiques qui ont eu lieu depuis (celle des années 1929 à 1941, celle de 1973 à 1980) ont connu une nouvelle flambée des faillites et des licenciements pour motif économique. Pour sortir certaines grandes firmes de la difficulté, la direction renvoie les salariés par « paquets » et s'endette auprès de la holding du groupe financier ou des banques qui soutenaient auparavant la finance de la firme. C'est à l'évolution de ces deux indicateurs de crise que ce livre est consacré, depuis la crise politique de mai-juin 1968 jusqu'à la deuxième crise pétrolière de 1979. C'est donc une analyse économique basée sur les statistiques produites par le système public d'information et sur les théories produites par les économistes libéraux ou marxistes. Ces indicateurs sont les traces de la crise qui dure, mais sont aussi les annonciateurs d'une autre crise qui vient : celle de la mondialisation de l'économie. L'auteur est professeur émérite de sciences de gestion à l'Université Sorbonne Paris-Nord et membre du laboratoire CEPN, unité associée au CNRS. Il a déjà publié une vingtaine d'ouvrages d'histoire économique et managériale chez une dizaine d'éditeurs. Ses travaux portent sur l'histoire des entreprises françaises et de leur management. Il a réédité les œuvres fondatrices de Cotrugli, Le Choyselat, Martin-Labbé, Sala, Courcelle-Seneuil, Lincol, Fayol, Charles Gide et Auguste Detœuf. Il rédige une histoire de l'édition de gestion et de management en trois volumes dont le premier est paru en 2018. Il préside enfin l'Institut d'Histoire et de Prospective du Management qui soutient les recherches récentes en histoire de la pensée managériale.
    Keywords: Faillites,Licenciements,Crise,France,1968-1979
    Date: 2021–03–06
  5. By: Goodwin, Geoff
    Abstract: Creating private property rights and establishing land markets were fundamental to the historical development of capitalism in the Global North and remain at the centre of capitalist development in the Global South. This article contributes to debates about these processes by analysing the relationship between land markets and indigenous peoples in Highland Ecuador. Building on Karl Polanyi's concept of fictitious commodities, it elaborates a new concept that makes an analytical distinction between the activation and development of land markets. The former refers to the occasional participation of actors in markets to secure land, whereas the latter relates to the establishment and expansion of markets that regulate the distribution and value of land through market prices. Focusing on indigenous land struggles in the late 20th century, this article shows that the activation of land markets created opportunities for indigenous peasants to secure land, whereas the development of land markets closed them down. Social and class differentiation among the highland indigenous population increased through this contradictory process. The article connects this historical analysis to recent developments in Ecuador to contribute to empirical and theoretical debates about contemporary land struggles and agrarian change elsewhere in the Global South.
    Keywords: countermovement; fictitious commodities; Karl Polanyi; land markets; land reform
    JEL: J1 N0
    Date: 2021–01–01
  6. By: David Chilosi (Department of Political Economy, King’s College London); Carlo Ciccarelli (Department of Economics and Finance, Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: Structural transformation is a key indicator of economic development. This paper reconstructs and examines spatial patterns of the occupational structure in pre-unification Italy, combining direct observations and urbanization rates. In 1861, the agricultural labour share was higher in Southern Italy than in the Centre and North. During the Risorgimento, provincial wages converged within the Centre-North. The predicted Centre-North/South GDP per capita ratio declined in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, as the Centre-North stagnated and the South grew slowly. Southern Italy forged ahead of China after, and fell behind Britain before, the Centre-North did, but by pre-modern standards it nonetheless emerged as a middle-high income area.
    Keywords: occupational structure, economic growth, regional inequality, Italy: pre-1861
    JEL: E01 N13 N93 O47 R12
    Date: 2021–03
  7. By: Caldwell, Bruce
    Abstract: Karen Vaughn received her BA in economics from Queens College of the City Universi-ty of New York in 1966 and her PhD from Duke University in 1971. From 1978 to 2004 she taught at George Mason University. She attended some of the earliest meet-ings of the History of Economics Society (HES) and was the editor of the HES Bulletin, which was the precursor of the Journal of the History of Economic Thought. Professor Vaughn has served as the President of the History of Economics Society and the South-ern Economic Association, and was the founding President of the Society for the Ad-vancement of Austrian Economics. She has books on John Locke and on the Austrian tradition in economics, and numerous articles on a variety of topics in professional jour-nals (the list of her publications is available as an online appendix to this interview).
    Date: 2021–03–26
  8. By: Nohara, Shinji
    Abstract: From the 1930s to the end of World War II, the Japanese government restricted freedom of expression and research. Nevertheless, Zenya Takashima (1904-1990), one of the most influential social scientists in Japan, continued to publish his writings. On an initial reading, he seems to have supported totalitarianism, even though he did not; moreover, he seemed to have agreed with a model of a controlled economy as a historical step, although he did not see this as inevitable. Rather, in order to resist the totalitarian ideology, he adopted a Smithian view of Shimin Shakai, or civil society, in which people, by protecting justice, acted freely in the economy. Before Takashima, the concept of civil society was used to express the German concept "bürgerliche Gesellschaft," but Takashima changed the meaning of the term to a society of equal citizens.
    Date: 2021–03–26
  9. By: Bartels, Charlotte; Kersting, Felix; Wolf, Nikolaus
    Abstract: We study the dynamics of income inequality, capital concentration, and voting outcomes before 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian counties and districts we re-evaluate the key economic debate between Marxists and their critics before 1914. We show that the increase in inequality was strongly correlated with a rising capital share, as predicted by Marxists at the time. In contrast, rising capital concentration was not associated with increasing income inequality. Relying on new sector×county data, we show that increasing strike activity worked as an offsetting factor. Similarly, the socialists did not directly benefit from rising inequality at the polls, but from the activity of trade unions. Overall, we find evidence for a rise in the bargaining power of workers, which limited the increase in inequality before 1914. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper Series)
    Date: 2021–03–25
  10. By: Fèvre, Raphaël
    Abstract: This paper deals with the initial reception of the Marshall Plan by Georges Bataille and François Perroux in light of the discussion they held in the journal Critique, during the second half of 1948. I argue that Bataille and Perroux took the Marshall Plan as an enigma that current economic and political theories were not able to explain fully. And that in response, both authors contributed a unique and sophisticated economic analysis to transcend what they perceived as limited scope of economics. By focusing on this interdisciplinary dialogue, this paper is intended as a contribution to a history of economic thought taking in the economic inquiry of non-economists, and the ways in which they relate to professional economists.
    Date: 2021–03–26
  11. By: Dalton, John; Logan, Andrew
    Abstract: We describe how the 2016 documentary The Man Who Discovered Capitalism can be used in the classroom to provide an entry point to the life and economics of Joseph A. Schumpeter, whose work on innovation, entrepreneurship, and creative destruction remains relevant for students today. We summarize the key ideas conveyed in the documentary and offer four criticisms: its failure to capture the role of fin-de-siecle Vienna on Schumpeter's intellectual development, its incomplete understanding of Schumpeter's theory of innovation, its overstatement of Keynes's influence relative to Schumpeter, and the overly generous credit it gives to government for spurring innovation. We show how the documentary can be used in the classroom, complete with sample discussion questions grounded in the criticisms we identify. We argue The Man Who Discovered Capitalism is an effective teaching tool suitable for a variety of courses, including those on economic growth, intermediate macroeconomics, and the history of economic thought, among others.
    Keywords: Joseph Schumpeter; Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Creative Destruction; John Maynard Keynes; Education; Documentary
    JEL: A20 B31 O31 O33
    Date: 2021–01–30
  12. By: Daniel Fernando Zarama Rojas
    Abstract: The meaning of Hayek’s call for humility changed after the introduction of evolutionism into his thought. Initially, his call pretended to highlight the greater capacity of spontaneous orders to combine disperse knowledge of local circumstances. His account, however, was not able to fully argue why would such knowledge be socially valuable, why could only spontaneous orders combine it, and how could it be relevant for the political institutions of society. Then, through the introduction of evolutionism, widening his conception of knowledge, he renewed his account of social phenomena and became able to answer criticisms that could be associated with his previous works. Ever since, Hayek calls for humility points out at the potentialities of individual learning and innovation. I argue that reinterpreting Hayek’s call for humility in the light of his evolutionism allows for a clear understanding of the value of freedom and the role he assigns to the state.
    Keywords: Hayek, Knowledge, Development, Humility, Institutions
    JEL: B25 O17 O43
    Date: 2021–03–19
  13. By: Erasmo, Valentina
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to offer an insight about women’s role in Amartya Sen’s thought, privileging economists and philosophers: mainly, I will focus on the figures of Joan Robinson, Eva Colorni, Martha Nussbaum and Emma Rothschild, showing, on the one hand, how they have influenced his thought, on the other, how they have eventually developed their own welldefined ideas about common research themes. Finally, I will provide an overview about contemporary Sen’s female scholars who have reached international acknowledgments in this research in order to distinguish the most important schools of thought born around his reflection. The main result of this paper is that, on the one hand, Sen has favoured the enhancement of these female’s figures both in economics and philosophy; on the other, these female’s figures have undoubtedly and significantly influenced his own thought. Rather, it is better to talk of a mutual and peer influence to each other.
    Keywords: capability approach; female; feminist; sentiments.
    JEL: B20 B40 B54
    Date: 2021–02–05
  14. By: Jean-Luc Gaffard
    Abstract: Les crises, crise financière de 2008, crise sanitaire de 2020, crise écologique récurrente ont des effets destructeurs sur les économies comme sur les théories censées expliquer leur évolution. Le projet qualifié de néo-libéral est remis en cause concrètement quand les repères habituels, issus de la théorie économique dominante, sont perdus et les politiques se rallient à ce qu’il est convenu d’appeler des mesures non conventionnelles. Les sociétés développées semblent osciller entre la continuation de ce projet avant tout guidé par la confiance dans les régulations par des marchés aussi flexibles que possible et une rupture incarnée dans le retour au pouvoir d’États autoritaires jouant de nationalismes identitaires. Cette situation n’est pas sans rappeler celles déjà vécues à la fin du XIXe siècle puis dans les années 1920-1930, situations de crise du libéralisme et de la théorie économique, un libéralisme qui a dû se renouveler pour ne pas sombrer et qui a pris la forme du libéralisme social dont le trait distinctif a été de faire place à une régulation macroéconomique au coeur d’un renouvellement de la théorie économique elle-même. Fort de cette expérience, le propos du texte qui suit est de faire valoir les avancées théoriques nécessaires et, par suite, les fondements économiques d’un libéralisme social présenté comme la réponse institutionnelle la mieux adaptée à la conduite d’économies de marché qui s’avèrent de nouveau être intrinsèquement instables mais néanmoins capables de résilience.
    Keywords: coordination, entreprise, instabilité, institutions, État, libéralisme, monnaie, nation, norme, rationalité, travail.
    JEL: B41 O43 P17 P4
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Fraser Summerfield; Livio Di Matteo
    Abstract: COVID-19 and the associated economic disruption is not a unique pairing. Catastrophic health events including the Black Death and the Spanish Flu also featured major economic disruptions. This paper focuses on significant health shocks during 1870-2016 from a singular virus: influenza. Our analysis builds on a literature dominated by long-run analyses by documenting the causal impact of influenza pandemics on short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. We examine 16 developed economies combining the Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macro History Database with the Human Mortality Database. Our results reveal important negative impacts. Further, we illustrate that these effects operate through different channels over time. Prior to vaccines, pandemic-induced mortality was responsible for economic contractions while modern flu-induced cycles appear to arise because of pandemic-induced consumption decreases.
    Keywords: Pandemics, Business Cycles, Mortality, Consumption, GDP Fluctuations
    JEL: E32 I18
    Date: 2021–03
  16. By: Kris James Mitchener Author e-mail:; Kirsten Wandschneider Author e-mail:; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke Author e-mail: (Division of Social Science)
    Abstract: We document the outbreak of a trade war after the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested the possible implementation of the sweeping tariff legislation, with many eventually choosing to retaliate by increasing their tariffs on imports from the United States. Using a new quarterly dataset on bilateral trade for 99 countries during the interwar period, we show that U.S. exports to countries that protested fell by between 15 and 22 percent, while U.S. exports to retaliators fell by 28-33 percent. Furthermore, using a second new dataset on U.S. exports at the product-level, we find that the most important U.S. exports to retaliating markets were particularly affected, suggesting a possible mechanism whereby the U.S. was targeted despite countries’ MFN obligations. The retaliators’ welfare gains from trade fell by roughly 8-17%.
    Date: 2021–03
  17. By: Joan-Severo Chumbita
    Abstract: Resumen: El presente artículo analiza la cuestión del producto máximo en la obra de Alfred Marshall, rastreando en ella afirmaciones comúnmente atribuida a autores del siglo XX, como John Maynard Keynes –sobre el empleo, la demanda agregada y la distribución– y Joseph Schumpeter –sobre las virtudes del monopolio, la innovación tecnológica y la distribución–. El estudio se realiza a partir de dos ejes fundamentales para una perspectiva dinámica sobre el crecimiento: 1) el uso de los factores productivos –la existencia o no de capacidad ociosa de capital anclado y de mano de obra– y 2) el nivel de la acumulación, su calidad y las implicancias distributivas de la destrucción de capital físico. De este modo, se estudian comprensivamente los efectos inter-temporales acumulativos del pleno uso de los factores, de la inversión, la innovación tecnológica y el aumento de la productividad del trabajo. Se mostrará que Marshall identifica la existencia del desempleo involuntario, y la necesidad de una intervención estatal orientada a remediarlo. Al mismo tiempo, se presentará la formulación marshalliana de la destrucción de capital físico por innovación tecnológica, así como de la posibilidad de que el producto en condiciones de competencia perfecta sea menor al de condiciones monopólicas.
    Keywords: Alfred Marshall; Joseph Schumpeter; pleno empleo; innovación; John Maynard Keynes; demanda agregada.
    JEL: B13 B14 B22 B31 D42
    Date: 2020–07–01
  18. By: Hugh Rockoff
    Abstract: This is my presidential address to the Economic History Association that was delivered in September 2020. It examines the failures or in some cases near-failures, of financial institutions that started the 12 most severe peacetime financial panics in the United States, beginning with the Panic of 1819 and ending with the Panic of 2008. The following generalizations were true in most cases, although not in all. (1) Panics were triggered by a short series of failures or near-failures; (2) many of the failing institutions were what we would now call shadow banks; (3) typically, the source of trouble was an excessive investment in real estate; and (4) typically, they had outstanding reputations for trustworthiness, prudence, and financial acumen—before they failed. It appears that in these respects the Panic of 2008 was an old-school panic.
    JEL: N2
    Date: 2021–03
  19. By: Jakub Grossmann; Štĕpán Jurajda; Felix Roesel
    Abstract: How do staying minorities that evade ethnic cleansing integrate into re-settled communities? After World War Two, three million ethnic Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland, but some were allowed to stay, many of them left-leaning anti-fascists. We study quasi-experimental local variation in the number of anti-fascist Germans staying in post-war Czechoslovakia and find a long-lasting footprint: Communist party support, party cell frequencies, far-left values, and social policies are stronger today where anti-fascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Our findings also suggest that political identity supplanted German ethnic identity among stayers who faced new local ethnic majorities.
    Keywords: forced migration, displacement, ethnic cleansing, stayers, minorities, identity, integration, Communist party, Czechoslovakia, Sudetenland
    JEL: J15 F22 D72 D74 N34
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Korchmina, Elena; Kiselev, Mikhail
    Abstract: Luxury has always been an intrinsic part of world history, but the words ‘luxe’/’luxury’ in the conventional sense are quite new, entering the French and English languages only in the 17th century. It was only at the end of the 17th century that the core of this phenomenon came up for discussion in Europe against a backdrop of development of international trade and incipient economic growth. During these debates, the concept of luxury was gradually demoralized by economic liberalism. A seminal role in the defining of the concept of luxury was played by translations. European thinkers coordinated their positions even if they disagreed with each other. How was the notion of luxury conceptualized outside the European Roman world? Russia is an interesting example that helps to understand it. The article answers when and why the concept of luxury entered Russian political thought and why although the luxury, finding itself outside the bounds of morality, continued to be only condemned in the economic sphere.
    Date: 2021–03–26
  21. By: François Facchini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Elena Seghezza (Universita degli studi di Genova)
    Abstract: The aim of this article is to help explain the history of the public spending-to-GDP ratio in France by examining the production of laws and regulations. It empirically finds a positive and significant relationship between the number of pages in the Official Gazette of the French Republic and the development of the public expenditure-to-GDP ratio. We rely on the number of pages in the Official Gazette as a proxy for the cost of implementing laws and regulations. If unchecked, a proliferation of laws and regulations expands public spending. Over the period 1905–2015, a 10% increase in pages caused a 1.14% increase in the public expenditure-to-GDP ratio.
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Manuel Rubio-García; Santiago Castaño-Salas
    Abstract: Resumen: En la teórica económica, la perspectiva del excedente económico –EE– tiene una doble importancia en las economías periféricas. En primer lugar, su esquema teórico incorpora la cuestión del patrón de desarrollo, esto es, el análisis del grado de cambio en las estructuras productivas y ocupacionales, y en correspondencia, de las transformaciones tanto en la distribución del ingreso como en el perfil de la inserción externa de una formación social dada (Vera, 2013). En segundo lugar, esta perspectiva teórica permite el análisis histórico de diferentes patrones de desarrollo, cuya explicación está centrada en el perfil del conflicto distributivo. En el presente artículo se realiza una exposición de la perspectiva del excedente económico desde las perspectivas de Baran, Prebisch y Furtado para las economías periféricas, así como también, una aproximación al análisis del grado de desarrollo a partir de la noción de fases de transformación productiva. Se concluye que la perspectiva del EE es útil para comprender el grado de diversificación productiva a partir de la interacción entre puja distributiva –apropiación y uso del EE– y las formas de acumulación de capital.
    Keywords: estructuralismo latinoamericano; excedente económico; capital monopolista; desarrollo económico; diversificación productiva; economías périfericas.
    JEL: B15 B52 B51 E11 E24 F43 O11 O14
    Date: 2020–07–01
  23. By: Rafael Emilio Congregado (Universidad de Huelva, Spain); Vicente Esteve (Departamento de Economia Aplicada II, Universidad de Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)
    Abstract: In this article, we test a classical model of inflation with rational expec- tations for the case of Spain during the period 18301998. The principal testable implication is that money growth and inflation are cointegrated ruling out speculative bubbles. First, to detect episodes of potential explosive behaviour in the Spanish ination rate, we use the recursive unit root tests for explosiveness recently proposed by Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011), and Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a,b). Second, we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a good empirical description of the classical model of ination for Spain over this long period. Our methodology is based on the instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as the cointegration tests developed in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and Kejriwal (2008).
    Keywords: Classical model of ination; Money demand; Money growth; Ination; Explosiveness; Cointegration; Multiple structural breaks
    JEL: C22 E31 E41
    Date: 2021–03
  24. By: Wang, Boqun; Yang, Dennis Tao
    Abstract: This is the �rst paper to study the role played by economic transition in reducing output volatility. A dramatic decline in aggregate output volatility in China from central planning to market-oriented reforms in the past half century is documented in this paper. The output volatility measured by the standard deviation of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the speci�ed rolling windows declined by 73% from 1953-�1977 to 1978�-2008. The sharpest reduction occurred in 1978 when China began to initiate a series of market reforms. Since the inception of these reforms, the volatility continued to decline, dropping more than 30% from 1978-�1994 to 1995�-2008. During the planning period, the co-movements in the provincial output, which re�flected the systemic risks associated with the highly centralized economic and political systems in China, were found to be the primary source of the high output volatility.
    Keywords: Output Volatility Moderation, Transitional Economy, China
    JEL: C33 E31 E32 J00 R00
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Jérôme Sgard (Centre de recherches internationales)
    Abstract: América Latina y la historia intelectual de la economía del desarrollo - En la economía clásica del desarrollo es posible reconocer la expresión de una época excepcional, la posguerra, capturada a través de sus aspiraciones progresistas más amplias y universales. Nuevas fuerzas como la paz, la prosperidad, la emancipación nacional y el multilateralismo, de algún modo se habrían unido por un proyecto de mundo mejor y más justo construido gracias a una nueva tecnología económica. En pocas ocasiones hemos visto una expresión tan poderosa de la consolidación del pensamiento económico en las ideas de progreso y razón y en una disposición evidentemente tecnocrática también...
    Keywords: Amérique latine; vie politique; économie du développement
    Date: 2020–01–30
  26. By: Mupenda, Olivier Munene
    Abstract: Unsustainable debt reduces productivity of a country. Ten years following its “1960 independence”, the Democratic Republic of Congo adopted policies of resorting to external financing while the world was at the peak of the petro-dollar crisis in the 1970’s. A decade later, in the 1980’s, with the fall in price of raw materials, the Democratic Republic of Congo was trapped in an unsustainable debt burden cycle that saw its economy stagnating with the majority of its population living in extreme poverty with less than US$1.90 a day according to the World Bank. The rise of active armed conflicts in the 1990’s and political unrest during the 2000's added pressures to seek further financial support from creditors, which facilitated corruption and poverty in the process. A country's inability to service its debt has consequences on its population. With empirical evidence, our analysis will be looking at the Congolese standard of living from its independence in 1960 to the historical democratic transfers of power in late 2018 to understand the effects of external debts in the Congolese economic growth.
    Keywords: Growth, Economy and Debt in the Democratic Republic of Congo
    JEL: A1 A10 C0 H12 O49 Y4 Y5
    Date: 2021–01–31
  27. By: Rancan, Antonella
    Abstract: In the article I examine how model builders from the academia and from the Federal Reserve Board confronted with the Phillips curve in the construction and subsequent modifications of the Federal Reserve, MIT and University of Pennsylvania macroeconometric model. It is argued that academic debates on Friedman’s and Phelps’ accelerationist hypothesis, and the subsequent evolution of the macroeconomics discipline, did not affect the model building agenda at the Research and Statistics Division of the Board over the 1970s and 1980s.
    Date: 2021–03–26
  28. By: Minhee Chae; Tim Hatton; Xin Meng
    Abstract: This paper explores the changing trend of adult height in China for cohorts born in 1950-90. We use information on the household structure and local economic conditions during the individual?s childhood to explain the trend. We find that during the 40-year period, the growth rate of adult height increased, with the most substantial increase occurring in the 1980s. One important contributing factor to the growth of adult height is the continued increase in government per capita spending on health and education. The impressive growth in the 1980s was mainly due to the introduction of market-oriented economic reforms, rather than the advent of the One-Child Policy. We find that the positive effect of economic reforms was larger for urban dwellers than for their rural counterparts and within the rural areas the benefit was far greater for men than for women.
    Keywords: Height; China; economic reform
    JEL: I15 I18 J13 O1
    Date: 2021–03
  29. By: Matteo Gomellini (Banca d'Italia, Servizio Struttura Economica, Divisione Storia Economica)
    Abstract: This paper summarizes and partially revisits the analyses and the results of some studies, carried out in the recent past, on the measurement of the intensity and effects of tradebarriers in Italian history. Firstly, the main turning points in Italian trade policy between 1861 and the end of the 20th century are identified, and secondly, a trade cost index that gauges the impediments to bilateral trade is computed (Jacks, Meissner and Novy 2011). The index quantifies the impact of national and international protectionism on the growth of foreign trade. Finally, the gains from trade are estimated via a counterfactual exercise (Arkolakis et al. 2012). The benefits of trade are evaluated over time using GDP as a metric and comparing two scenarios – the real one versus a hypothetical regime of autarchy – characterized by different degres of openness.
    Keywords: Italia, barriere agli scambi, politica commerciale, protezionismo, gains from trade
    JEL: F1 N7
    Date: 2020–12

This nep-his issue is ©2021 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.