nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒03‒29
57 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Inequality Beyond GDP: A Long View By Leandro Prados de la Escosura
  2. Edith T. Penrose: Economist of "The Ordinary Business of Life" By Pattit, Jason M.; Pattit, Katherina G.; Spender, J C
  3. The Origination and Distribution of Money Market Instruments: Sterling Bills of Exchange during the First Globalization By Olivier Accominotti; Delio Lucena-Piquero; Stefano Ugolini
  4. Independencia de México: hechos y pensamiento económico 1808-1821 By Villalobos Lopez, Jose Antonio
  5. Seignioriale Konten in den Reichslanden: die Finanzverwaltung des Geschlechts Neufchâtel im 15 By Vianney Muller
  6. The Long-Run Economic Consequences of Iodine Supplementation By Araújo, Daniel; Carrillo, Bladimir; Sampaio, Breno
  7. New Perspectives on Henry Ludwell Moore’s Use of Harmonic Analysis By Turner, Paul; Wood, Justine
  8. Leaving Their Mark: Using Danish Student Grade Lists to Construct a More Detailed Measure of Historical Human Capital By Nicholas Ford; Kristin Ranestad; Paul Sharp
  9. "Keynes's Theories of the Business Cycle: Evolution and Contemporary Relevance" By Pablo Gabriel Bortz
  10. Review of “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy” by Peter J. Boettke By Kolev, Stefan
  11. The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage By Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Karen A. Kopecky
  12. Democracy and the Politicization of Inequality in Brazil, 1989-2018 By Amory Gethin; Marc Morgan
  13. Party System Transformation and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, 1967-2019 By Carmen Durrer de la Sota; Amory Gethin; Clara Martínez-Toledano
  14. Women’s Voice on Redistribution: from Gender Norms to Taxation By Monica Bozzano; Paola Profeta; Riccardo Puglisi; Simona Scabrosetti
  15. Schumpeter's paradox reconsidered: The need for a theory of circular flow By Seo, Takashi
  16. The J-curve Effect in Agricultural Commodity Trade: An Empirical Study of South East Asian Economies By Trofimov, Ivan D.
  17. Homoploutia: Top Labor and Capital Incomes in the United States, 1950-2020 By Yonatan Berman; Branko Milanovic
  18. The Sectoral Innovation Database, 1994-2016. Methodological Notes By Pianta, Mario; Coveri, Andrea; Reljic, Jelena
  19. Efficiency without Optimality: A Pragmatic Compromise for Environmental Policies in the Late 1960s By Berta, Nathalie
  20. Paving the way to modern growth. Evidence from Bourbon roads in Spain By Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López; Alfonso Herranz-Loncán; Filippo Tassinari; Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal
  21. Kindleberger Cycles & Economic Growth: Method in the Madness of Crowds? By Randall Morck
  22. Brève histoire de l'enseignement et de la recherche en gestion en France By Alain Burlaud
  23. The process of structural change in the spanish economy from a historical standpoint By Víctor González-Díez; Enrique Moral-Benito
  24. Declining inequality in Latin America? Robustness checks for Peru By Winkelried, Diego; Escobar, Bruno
  25. Ricardo’s Side of The Malthus Papers in the Collection of Kanto Gakuen University By Depoortère, Christophe
  26. The Relation of Neoclassical Economics to other Disciplines: The case of Physics and Psychology By Stavros, Drakopoulos
  27. Rural Living Standards and Inequality: A Case Study from Southern Sweden 1780-1919 By Willner, Sam
  28. Why Covid19 will not be gone soon: Lessons from the institutional economics of smallpox vaccination in 19th Century Germany By Katharina Muhlhoff
  29. Power and the money, money and the power: A network analysis of donations from American corporate to political leaders. By James Rockey; Nadia Zakir
  30. Friedrich Hayek’s liberal dialectics By Claude Gamel
  31. Skimming the achieved? Quantifying the fiscal incentives of the German fiscal equalization scheme and its reforms since 1970 By Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P.; Burret, Heiko Tobias
  32. Collective Bargaining Rights, Policing, and Civilian Deaths By Cunningham, Jamein; Feir, Donna; Gillezeau, Rob
  33. Bad Men, Good Roads, Jim Crow, and the Economics of Southern Chain Gangs By Howard Bodenhorn
  34. Ordoliberalism and the social market economy By Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; Nientiedt, Daniel
  35. The introduction of Bismarck's social security system and its effects on marriage and fertility in Prussia By Guinnane, Timothy; Streb, Jochen
  36. Political Power, Elite Control, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Brazil By Claudio Ferraz; Federico Finan; Monica Maretinez-Bravo
  37. Looking In The Rear-View Mirror: A Thirty-Five Year Retrospective On The Russian Automotive Industry By Igor Gurkov; Michael J. Morley
  38. Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020 By David S. Jacks; Martin Stuermer
  39. The Wise, the Politician and the Strongman: National Leaders' Type and Quality of Governance By Julieta Peveri
  40. From the accounts of Philosophie rurale to the physiocratic Tableau: François Quesnay as a precursor of national accounting By Le Masne, Pierre; Dupuy, Romuald; Roman, Philippe
  41. The Modernizing Trajectories of the Public Administration: Brazil and Spain By Maria Angeles Abellán Lopez; Thiago Ferreira Dias; Carmen Nebot
  42. Under the Landlord's Thumb. Municipalities and Local Elites in Sweden 1862-1900 By Uppenberg, Carolina; Olsson, Mats
  43. Why Was Keynes Not Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize After Writing "The Economic Consequences of the Peace"? By Jonung, Lars
  44. Female Genital Cutting and the Slave Trade. By Lucia Corno; Eliana La Ferrara; Alessandra Voena
  45. A Safe Harbor: Wealth-Income Ratios in Switzerland over the 20th Century and the Role of Housing Prices By Enea Baselgia; Isabel Martínez
  46. Nepotism vs. Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital in Academia (1088–1800) By de la Croix, David; Goñi, Marc
  47. Does Gender Equality Translate into Economic Equality? Evidence from about 150 Nations By Michael A. Nelson; Rajeev K. Goel
  48. Review of “The Accademy of Fisticuffs. Political Economy and Commercial Society in Enlightenment Italy” by Sophus A. Reinert By Simon, Fabrizio
  49. A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited By Ruixue Jia; Gérard Roland; Yang Xie
  50. Regulatory Capture in the First Spanish Nuclear Program (C.1951-1964) By Josean Garrués-Irurzun; Juan A. Rubio-Mondéjar
  51. People Pay In Cash By Si, Hoan Luong Cu
  52. Democracy and primary education spending in Spain, 1902-22 By Paola Azar; Sergio Espuelas
  53. War and Peace: Arthur C. Pigou as a Public Intellectual during World War I By Arthmar, Rogério; McLure, Michael
  54. Long-run stability of money demand and monetary policy: the case of Algeria By Raouf Boucekkine; Mohammed Laksaci; Mohamed Touati-Tliba
  55. Testing Marx. Income inequality, concentration, and socialism in late 19th century Germany By Charlotte Bartels; Felix Kersting; Nikolaus Wolf
  56. Review of “The Routledge Handbook of the History of Women’s Economic Thought” by Kirsten Madden and Robert W. Dimand By May, Ann Mari
  57. Urbanisation and the onset of modern economic growth By Liam Brunt; Cecilia García-Peñalosa

  1. By: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: The study of international well-being and its distribution remains focused on income. This paper addresses multidimensional well-being from a capabilities perspective during the last one-and-a-half centuries. Relative inequality (population-weighted) fell in health and education since the late 1920s, due to the globalisation of mass schooling and the health transition, but only dropped from 1970 onwards in terms of political and civil liberties, and declined since 1900 for augmented human development. These results are at odds with per capita income inequality that rose over time and only shrank from 1990 onwards. Relative and absolute well-being distribution behaved differently, with the distance between countries shrinking in relative terms but widening in absolute terms. Countries in the middle and lower deciles of the world distribution achieved the largest relative gain over the last century. Education and political and civil liberties were the main contributors to the evolution of augmented human development inequality, although longevity made a substantial contribution until the 1920s.
    Keywords: Inequality, Well-being, Life Expectancy, Schooling, Civil and Political Liberties, GDP, Augmented Human Development
    JEL: I00 N30 O15 O50
    Date: 2021–03
  2. By: Pattit, Jason M.; Pattit, Katherina G.; Spender, J C
    Abstract: When Edith T. Penrose became Fritz Machlup’s student in the late-1940s, she found little in mainstream or Austrian economics to guide her as she began her explorations into the growth of the firm. While she acknowledged Kenneth Boulding’s influence on her work, we suspect she drew on a broader tradition that includes, among others, Alfred Marshall, Frank Knight (Boulding’s teacher), and Ronald Coase. We seek to demonstrate Penrose’s connection to this ‘invisible college’, particularly to Knight, and its influence on her investigation of the growth of the firm. Given mainstream economists’ pursuit of rigor at the expense of practical relevance and their continuing inattention to Coase’s work, we suggest Penrose’s work on the growth of the firm can be understood as part of a broader tradition represented by this ‘invisible college’, leading to useful new insights for business strategy and business ethics scholarship.
    Keywords: Penrose’s language of the firm; the theory of the growth of the firm; business ethics
    JEL: M0 N0 N8
    Date: 2021–03
  3. By: Olivier Accominotti (LSE - Economic History Department - London school of economics and political science - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Delio Lucena-Piquero (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville); Stefano Ugolini (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville)
    Abstract: This paper presents a detailed analysis of how liquid money market instruments – sterling bills of exchange – were produced during the first globalisation. We rely on a unique data set that reports systematic information on all 23,493 bills re-discounted by the Bank of England in the year 1906. Using descriptive statistics and network analysis, we reconstruct the complete network of linkages between agents involved in the origination and distribution of these bills. Our analysis reveals the truly global dimension of the London bill market before the First World War and underscores the crucial role played by London intermediaries (acceptors and discounters) in overcoming information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders on this market. The complex industrial organisation of the London money market ensured that risky private debts could be transformed into extremely liquid and safe monetary instruments traded throughout the global financial system.
    Keywords: money market,industrial organisation,information asymmetry,bill of exchange,bill of exchange JEL Classification: E42,G23,L14,N20
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Villalobos Lopez, Jose Antonio
    Abstract: Three external events decisively influenced Mexico's independence from the Spanish empire: 1) The certificate for the consolidation of royal vouchers of 1804; 2) The invasion of Bonaparte into Spanish territory in 1808; 3) The implementation of the Constitution of Cadiz in 1812 and its reimplantation in 1820. In the Congress of Anahuac of 1813, More-los's 'Feelings of the Nation' is read, where a clear break with Ferdinand VII, Spanish monarch, is seen. I highlight the courage and understanding of characters such as Morelos, Guerrero y Mina (Spanish), whose sacrifice led to the signing of the Act of Independence of the Mexican Empire on September 28, 1821. So we are about to turn 200 years after the consum of independence. It is estimated that as a result of losses during the eleven years of the war of independence, the national product decreased by 50%
    Keywords: Independence Mexico, economic ideas independence, independence New Spain
    JEL: N46
    Date: 2021–03–22
  5. By: Vianney Muller (HISCANT-MA - Histoire et Cultures de l'Antiquité et du Moyen Âge - UL - Université de Lorraine)
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel stützt sich auf die Analyse von rund fünfzig Rechnungsbüchern von rund zehn Lehensherrschaften des Geschlechts von Neufchâtel aus dem 15. Jahrhundert. Die allgemeinen Prinzipien, die der Erstellung dieser herrschaftlichen Rechnungsbücher zugrunde liegen, sind relativ einheitlich (Form der Dokumente, Dauer und Organisation der Buchführung, Personal und Geschäftsprozesse) und andererseits gibt es signifikante Unterschiede bei der Umsetzung (Schmuckelemente, Nummerierung der Belege, Fristen des Haushaltsjahres). Die Anhörung der Konten macht auch die Rolle deutlich, die Kaplane und Sekretäre, die großes Vertrauen des Herrn genossen, bei der Kontrolle der Buchhaltung spielten. Die Bedeutung der Belege oder der nicht erhobenen Abgaben erinnert uns daran, dass diese Rechnungsbücher nicht nur Buchhaltungsbelege im engeren Sinne, sondern auch Gedenken an das Herrschaftsrecht sind. Obwohl sie vorwiegend Gebiete des Germanischen Reichs betreffen, orientieren sich die Rechnungsbücher hauptsächlich an denen der fürstlich burgundischen Verwaltung, ohne jedoch alle Vorschriften des Rechnungskammer von Dijon aufzugreifen.
    Abstract: This article is based on the analysis of about fifty 15th century account books from a dozen lordships belonging to the lineage of Neufchâtel, settled in the county of Burgundy. It shows a relative homogeneity in the general principles that guide the elaboration of this seigniorial accounting system (form of documents, duration and organisation of the accounts, personnel and management processes) with, however, significant variations in the implementation of these principles (presence of decoration, numbering of supporting documents, terms of the financial year). The hearing of the accounts shows the importance taken by the chaplains and secretaries, trusted men of the lord, in the accounting control. The importance of the supporting statements or those of uncollected duties is a reminder that, beyond an accounting document in the strict sense, these registers are a reminder of the seigniorial rights. Although they mainly concern land belonging to the Germanic Empire, the accounts are essentially inspired by those of the princely Burgundian administration without, however, taking up all the prescriptions of the Dijon Chamber of Accounts.
    Abstract: Este artículo se basa en el análisis de unos cincuenta libros de cuentas del siglo XV de una docena de castillos pertenecientes al linaje Comtois de Neufchâtel. Muestra una relativa homogeneidad en los principios generales que guían la elaboración de este sistema de contabilidad señorial (forma de los documentos, duración y organización de las cuentas, personal y procesos de gestión) con, sin embargo, variaciones significativas en la aplicación de estos principios (presencia de la decoración, numeración de los documentos justificativos, plazos del ejercicio financiero). La audición de las cuentas muestra la importancia que tienen los capellanes y secretarios, hombres de confianza del señor, en el control de la contabilidad. La importancia de las declaraciones justificativas o de los deberes no cobrados es un recordatorio de que, más allá de un documento contable en sentido estricto, estos registros son un recordatorio de los derechos señoriales. Aunque se refieren principalmente a las tierras pertenecientes al Imperio Germánico, las cuentas se inspiran esencialmente en las de la administración principesca borgoñona, sin que por ello se adopten todas las prescripciones de la Cámara de Cuentas de Dijon.
    Abstract: Cet article s'appuie sur l'analyse d'une cinquantaine de livres de comptes du xve siècle provenant d'une dizaine de châtellenies appartenant au lignage comtois de Neufchâtel. Il en ressort une relative homogénéité dans les principes généraux qui guident l'élaboration de cette comptabilité seigneuriale (forme des documents, durée et organisation des comptes, personnel et processus de gestion) avec toutefois de significatives variantes dans la mise en œuvre de ces principes (présence de décor, numérotation des pièces justificatives, termes de l'exercice). L'audition des comptes montre l'importance prise par les chapelains et secrétaires, hommes de confiance du seigneur, dans le contrôle comptable. L'importance des mentions justificatives ou celles de droits non perçus rappellent qu'au-delà d'un document comptable au sens strict, ces registres assurent la mémoire des droits seigneuriaux. Bien qu'elles concernent majoritairement des terres relevant de l'Empire germanique, les comptabilités s'inspirent pour l'essentiel de celles de l'administration princière bourguignonne sans reprendre toutefois l'ensemble des prescriptions de la Chambre des comptes de Dijon.
    Keywords: Mittelalter,Herzogtum und Grafschaft von Burgund,Rechnungswesen,landesherrliche Verwaltung,Kodikologie,Rechnungsprüfung,herrschaftliche Rechte,Amtspersonen,Neufchâtel,Châtel-sur-Moselle,Vuillafans-le-Vieux,15. Jahrhundert,Middle Ages,County of Burgundy,accounting,seigniorial administration,codicology,accounting control,seigniorial rights,officers,15th century,Edad Media,Condado de Borgoña,Contabilidad,administración señorial,codicología,control contable,derechos señoriales,oficiales,Vuillafans-le-Vieux siglo XV,Moyen Âge,Comté de Bourgogne,comptabilité,administration seigneuriale,codicologie,contrôle comptable,droits seigneuriaux,officiers,Vuillafans-le-Vieux xve siècle
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Araújo, Daniel (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Carrillo, Bladimir (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
    Abstract: We present evidence on the impacts of a large-scale iodine supplementation program in Tanzania on individuals' long-term economic outcomes. Exploiting the timing and location of the intervention, we document that in utero exposure to the program increased completed years of education and income scores in adulthood. We find no increase in total employment, but a significant change in the occupational structure. Cohorts exposed to the program are less likely to work in agricultural self-employment and more likely to hold skilled jobs that typically demand higher levels of education. Together, these results demonstrate that iodine deficiency can have long-run implications for occupational choices and labor market incomes in low-income regions.
    Keywords: iodine supplementation, long-run, educational attainment, labor market outcomes
    JEL: I15 I18 J24 N35
    Date: 2021–03
  7. By: Turner, Paul; Wood, Justine
    Abstract: This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis, the relationship between rainfall, agricultural productivity and the business cycle, marks an early precursor of the ‘Real Business Cycle’ approach. Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as ‘a complete failure’ is therefore, in our opinion rather unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.
    Date: 2020–12–01
  8. By: Nicholas Ford (Lund University); Kristin Ranestad (Lund University); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: We provide a brief overview of the educational history of Denmark and document archival and printed sources covering the development of primary, secondary, and tertiary education. In particular, we focus on student grade lists, which are available for individuals at all levels of education from the early nineteenth century until well into the twentieth century. We suggest that these can be used to construct more detailed measures of human capital than those usually employed, making it possible to deconstruct aggregate education into e.g. knowledge of science or humanities, as well as to measure the extent to which this was actually learned, as captured by the grades achieved. Given the role usually attributed to human capital for development, and perhaps particularly with regards the Nordic countries, such data has the potential to greatly increase our understanding of how Denmark became the rich and successful country it is today.
    Keywords: Denmark, grade lists, human capital
    JEL: I21 N33 N34
    Date: 2021–02
  9. By: Pablo Gabriel Bortz
    Abstract: This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different "theories" of business fluctuations. With different theoretical frameworks in a 30-year span, the driver of fluctuations--namely cyclical changes in expectations about future returns--remained substantially the same. The banking system also played a pivotal role throughout the different versions, by financing and influencing the behavior of return expectations. There are four major changes in the evolution of Keynes's business cycle theories: a) the saving–investment framework to understand changes in economic fluctuations; b) the capabilities of the banking system to moderate the business cycle; c) the effectiveness of monetary policy to fine tune the business cycle through the control of the short-term interest rate or credit conditions; and d) the role of a comprehensive fiscal policy and investment policy to attenuate fluctuations. Finally, some conclusions are drawn about the present relevance of the policy mix Keynes promoted for ensuring macroeconomic stability.
    Keywords: John Maynard Keynes; Business Cycle; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Financial System; Uncertainty
    JEL: B31 E12 E32 E44 E63
    Date: 2021–03
  10. By: Kolev, Stefan
    Abstract: Book Review of “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy” by Peter J. Boettke
    Date: 2020–09–01
  11. By: Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Karen A. Kopecky (FRB Atlanta)
    Abstract: The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon ?nding one, they can choose between abstinence, marriage, and a premarital sexual relationship. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented.
    Keywords: Age of marriage, contraceptive technology, history, never-married population, number of partners, out-of-wedlock births, premarital sex, singles.
    Date: 2019–12
  12. By: Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the transformation of electoral cleavages in Brazil since 1989 using a novel assembly of electoral surveys. Brazilian political history since redemocratization is largely a history of the rise and fall of the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT). We show that the election of Lula da Silva as President in 2002, followed by the implementation of redistributive policies by successive PT governments, was at the origin of the marked socioeconomic cleavages that emerged. In a relatively short space of time the PT transformed itself from a party of the young, highly educated, high-income elite of the Southern party of the country, to a party of the poor and lesser educated voters, increasingly located in the disadvantaged region of the Northeast. Controlling for a host of socio-demographic factors, a voter in the Northeast was 20 percentage points more likely to vote for the PT in 2018 than voters in other regions, compared to being 5 percentage points less likely to do so in 1989. In sharp contrast to other western democracies, political conflict in Brazil has followed an increasingly unidimensional class-based path. This culminated in the unification of elites and large parts of the middle class behind Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election. We argue that contextual policy-driven factors and programmatic alliances are key to understand the PT's singular evolution, and thus the transformation of electoral cleavages in Brazil.
    Date: 2021–03
  13. By: Carmen Durrer de la Sota (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Clara Martínez-Toledano (Imperial College London, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper combines post-electoral surveys to study the transformation of the structure of political cleavages in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland over the last five decades. Despite their history of linguistic, regional, and religious conflicts, all four countries share a common tradition of consensus decision-making, which has remained until the present. Yet, the weakening of historical cleavages, the emergence of new political formations (i.e. Green parties on the left and anti-immigration parties on the right), and the rise of new divides have significantly transformed their party systems since the 1980s. Support for green and left-wing parties among highest-educated voters, and for anti-immigration parties among the lower-educated has grown, while top-income earners have remained instead more supportive of the traditional right. Both the rise of new green and anti-immigration parties, but also changes within old parties have thus led to the emergence of "multi-elite party systems", as it has been shown in other Western democracies.
    Date: 2021–03
  14. By: Monica Bozzano (Università di Pavia); Paola Profeta (Università Bocconi, Axa Research Lab on Gender Equality, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies Università Bocconi); Riccardo Puglisi (Università di Pavia); Simona Scabrosetti (Università di Pavia, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies Università Bocconi)
    Abstract: Gender norms, i.e. the role of men and women in the society, are a fundamental channel through which culture may influence preferences for redistribution and public policies. We consider both cross-country and individual level evidence on this mechanism. We find that in countries that are historically more gender-equal the tax system today is more redistributive. At the individual level, we find that in more gender equal countries gender differences in redistributive preferences are significantly larger. This effect is driven by women becoming systematically more favorable to redistribution, while there are no significant changes for men. Interestingly, there is no gender-based difference in preferences for redistribution among left-leaning citizens, while this difference is significant among moderates in the expected direction: ideologically moderate women are more favorable to redistribution than moderate men, and this effect is even stronger among right-leaning individuals.
    Keywords: gender inequality, comparative public finance, tax mix, institutions, historical origins
    JEL: H10 H20 N30 Z18
    Date: 2021–03
  15. By: Seo, Takashi
    Abstract: This study focuses on the well-known theme of Schumpeter’s system of economic theory. Specifically, the study discusses Schumpeter’s paradoxical stance on Walras’ general equilibrium theory, which Louçã (1997) called Schumpeter’s paradox. We reconsider the significance of the notion of circular flow in business cycle theory, after recognising the continuity from static to dynamic theory, and then to business cycle theory that integrates these theories. In doing so, we focus on the fact that Schumpeter called the equilibrium in the cyclical process a circular flow or a stationary process and proposed his own concept of neighbourhoods of equilibrium, which was not found in Walras’ general equilibrium theory. Through such an analysis, we propose that Schumpeter’s paradox is eased to some degree and that the theory of circular flow should be explored further.
    Keywords: Schumpeter, Walras, Kuznets, Business cycles, Circular flow, General equilibrium, Neighbourhood of equilibrium
    JEL: B25 B31 B41 E32
    Date: 2021–03–25
  16. By: Trofimov, Ivan D.
    Abstract: The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper we address this omission and consider the J-curve hypothesis in four South East Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980-2017 period. We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables, and additionally use the non-linear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes. The estimated models were diagnostically sound and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exceptions of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of non-linear ARDL in these countries.
    Keywords: J-curve; agriculture; non-linear ARDL; cointegration
    JEL: C22 F14 Q17
    Date: 2020–12–10
  17. By: Yonatan Berman (London Mathematical Laboratory, Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, The Graduate Center - CUNY Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New York [New York]); Branko Milanovic (The Graduate Center - CUNY Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New York [New York], Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, International Inequalities Institute)
    Abstract: Homoploutia describes the situation in which the same people (homo) are wealthy (ploutia) in the space of capital and labor income in some country. It can be quantified by the share of capital-income rich who are also labor-income rich. In this paper we combine several datasets covering different time periods to document the evolution of homoploutia in the United States from 1950 to 2020. We find that homoploutia was low after World War II, has increased by the early 1960s, and then decreased until the mid-1980s. Since 1985 it has been sharply increasing: In 1985, about 17% of adults in the top decile of capital-income earners were also in the top decile of labor-income earners. In 2018 this indicator was about 30%. This makes the traditional division to capitalists and laborers less relevant today. It makes periods characterized by high interpersonal inequality, high capital-income ratio and high capital share of income in the past fundamentally different from the current situation. High homoploutia has far-reaching implications for social mobility and equality of opportunity. We also study how homoploutia is related to total income inequality. We find that rising homoploutia accounts for about 20% of the increase in total income inequality in the United States since 1986.
    Keywords: income inequality,homoploutia,political economy
    Date: 2020–12
  18. By: Pianta, Mario; Coveri, Andrea; Reljic, Jelena
    Abstract: The Sectoral Innovation Database (SID) has been developed at the University of Urbino over the last 20 years and combines several major sources of industry-level data, shedding light on the dynamics of structural change, the nature and impact of innovation, the internationalisation of production, the evolution of the quantity and quality of employment, income distribution patterns and the role of digitalization. The database covers six major European countries – France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom (representing 75% of EU28’s GDP) – from 1994 to 2016, considering six time periods corresponding to upswings and downswings of business cycles. The first version of the SID provides data for 21 manufacturing and 17 service sectors for two-digit NACE Rev. 1 classes. As statistical surveys have moved to the two-digit NACE Rev. 2 classification, a second version of the Sectoral Innovation Database was produced, providing data for 18 manufacturing and 23 service sectors for two-digit NACE Rev. 2 classes. Major sources of data include the Community Innovation Surveys provided by Eurostat, the OECD’s STAN database, the WIOD database, the Eurostat’s EU Labour Force Surveys, and the EU KLEMS data on digitalization. The integrated information provided by the Sectoral Innovation Database offers a comprehensive view of industries’ dynamics in Europe and allows for an in-depth investigation of key research questions related to technological change, economic performance, international production, income distribution and employment.
    Keywords: Innovation, Industries, Databases, Demand, Offshoring, Labour market
    JEL: O3
    Date: 2021–03
  19. By: Berta, Nathalie
    Abstract: In the late 1960s, new environmental policies emerged which attempted to reach predetermined pollution standards in a cost-effective way: i.e., the ‘standard-and-tax’ approach proposed by William J. Baumol and Wallace E. Oates and the permits market approach proposed by John Dales. This paper describes the early history of the two approaches, and compares them. Although they flow from different traditions, namely Pigovian versus Coasean, and are often contrasted in the literature, these cost-effective solutions emerged at the same time and for the same reasons. First, they both tried to promote incentives-based policies against traditional regulations; second, they criticized the optimal Pigovian tax, which raised the contentious issue of measuring pollution damage. More broadly, they emerged as a kind of pragmatic compromise, fed by a common attempt to move toward more practical policies: reaching efficiency without optimality, while relying on standards whose setting is a matter for political decision.
    Date: 2020–12–01
  20. By: Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Autonomous University of Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Alfonso Herranz-Loncán (University of Barcelona and 'Antoni de Capmany' Research Centre); Filippo Tassinari (University of Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (University of Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB))
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact that Spanish road construction had on local population growth between 1787 and 1857. We find that the increase in market access associated to road accessibility had a substantial effect on local population growth. The impact was substantially higher on the municipalities that were connected earlier and that had a more diversified occupational structure. By contrast, the effect of the new network on population growth was negative in municipalities close but without direct access to the roads. We interpret these findings as evidence of a process of rural-to-rural migration due to the new roads.
    Keywords: roads, accessibility, market access, population growth, pre-railway transport, Spain
    JEL: H54 N73 N93
    Date: 2021–02
  21. By: Randall Morck
    Abstract: Because positive spillovers give investment in innovation a social rate of return several times higher than its internal rate of return to innovators, innovation is chronically underfunded. Recurrent manias, panics and crashes in stock markets inundate “hot” new technologies with capital. To the extent that manias compensate for chronic underinvestment in innovation, competition at the economy-level may favor institutions and behavioral norms conducive to innovation-related bubbles despite ultimately low returns to the hindmost investors.
    JEL: G01 G02 G4 N2 O16 O3 O33 O4 P1
    Date: 2021–01
  22. By: Alain Burlaud (CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM])
    Date: 2021–03–05
  23. By: Víctor González-Díez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España)
    Abstract: Historical experience and the economic literature show that the process of structural change of economies towards more advanced stages of development is associated with a particular pattern of change in the sectoral composition of economic activity. In a first stage, the manufacturing share increases while agriculture’s share decreases. In a second stage, the manufacturing share starts to decline and the services share starts to grow. This paper presents a brief overview of the empirical evidence available on this process of structural change at an international level, highlighting the case of the Spanish economy. As a result of the rapid process of structural change over the last four decades, the productive structure of the Spanish economy has converged towards that of the European countries, with higher shares for services and manufacturing and a lower share for agriculture. Beyond the impact of cyclical fluctuations, we can expect increases in the services share, at the expense of manufacturing and agriculture. According to the literature, these patterns may be related to demand forces (the public’s preferences), supply forces (different sectoral productivity patterns) or a combination of both, owing to openness to international trade which can accelerate the process. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the causes of structural change in Spain is essential, inasmuch as the future development of this process will determine economic growth in the long run.
    Keywords: structural change, economic sectors, sectoral analysis, Spanish economy
    JEL: O11 O14 O4
    Date: 2019–04
  24. By: Winkelried, Diego; Escobar, Bruno
    Abstract: Household surveys underreport incomes from the upper tail of the distribution, affecting our assessment about inequality. This paper offers a tractable simulation method to deal with this situation in the absence of extra information (e.g., tax records). The core of the method is to draw pseudodata from a mixture between the income empirical distribution and a parametric model for the upper tail, that aggregate to a preestablished top income share. We illustrate the procedure using Peruvian surveys that, as in the rest of Latin America, have displayed a sustained decrease in the Gini index since the 2000s. In a number of experiments, we impose a larger top income share than the one observed in the data, closer to corrected estimates for less egalitarian neighbors (e.g., Chile). We find that even though the point estimates of the Gini index are biased indeed, the corrected indices still decrease in time.
    Keywords: Top income share, income inequality, Latin America
    JEL: D63 F63 N36 O54
    Date: 2020–12–16
  25. By: Depoortère, Christophe
    Abstract: In 1997 and 2004, John Pullen and Trevor Hughes Parry published a set of manuscripts by and relating to Thomas Robert Malthus held at the Kanto Gakuen University in Japan. Their achievement is impressive. However a few important elements relating to these manuscripts escaped their attention. These elements concern Malthus, but also his very good friend and theoretical opponent David Ricardo.The purpose of this article is to point out these elements inasmuch as they enable 1) to establish the correct dating and contextualisation of some manuscripts, and 2) to attribute the true authorship of some other material.
    Date: 2020–12–01
  26. By: Stavros, Drakopoulos
    Abstract: Since the emergence of the classical school, the scientific ideal of physical sciences has been a constant influence on economic theory and method. Its influence is still present in contemporary neoclassical economics. Similarly to the case of physics, classical economists were very open in incorporating psychological elements in the economic discourse. This openness towards psychology continued with prominent Marginalist economists, like Jevons and Edgeworth, who were eager to draw from psychological ideas found in earlier authors. In the first decades of the 20th century, a major conceptual change in economics took place which is also known as the Paretian turn. This conceptual change, initiated mainly by Vilfredo Pareto, and completed, in the first decades of the 20th century, by J. Hicks, R. Allen and P. Samuelson, attempted to remove all psychological notions from economic theory. The legacy of the Paretian turn can still be identified in the significant reluctance of the contemporary orthodox economic theory to incorporate the findings of the new behavioral economics, a field with a discernable psychological bent. This chapter argues that the history of the relation of those two subjects to economics can lead to some potentially useful observations concerning the nature of contemporary neoclassical economics. It will also be maintained that the relationship of neoclassical economics to physics ultimately constrained its interaction with psychology.
    Keywords: Economic Methodology; Economics and Psychology; Economics and Physics; History of Economic Thought
    JEL: B0 B40
    Date: 2021–03
  27. By: Willner, Sam (Department of Culture and Society (IKOS), History unit, Linköping University)
    Abstract: For several decades a lively debate has been ongoing regarding how living standards and economic inequality actually developed during the agrarian and industrial revolutions in 19th century Western Europe. This study examines rural living standards and inequality among common people in five Swedish parishes, based on circa 4,000 probate inventories in the period from 1780s to 1910s. It is probably the most comprehensive study done so far regarding wealth development of a local Swedish rural context, covering the entire 19th century, comparing and analysing the material standard of living for different socio economic groups related to the fundamental social processes taking part during the 19th century, such as the agrarian and industrial revolutions. The local design in combination with a relatively large dataset allows for more detailed analyses and controlling for more variables than is usually possible in studies on a higher geographical level. The local approach, taking into account specific contextual factors, could help to reveal relevant mechanisms affecting the development and distribution of wealth that might be hidden in studies basedon aggregate data on national level not considering regional variations.Among farmers net wealth increased stepwise during the 19th century to a large extent due to rising real estate values, while lower social classes, largely in accordance with severalprevious studies, witnessed stagnating wealth levels until the breakpoint around the1860s, whereafter material resources started to rise substantially according to the wealth estimates. Besides real estate increasing bank savings was a major factor for the improving wealth in early 20th century, but also an increasing number of movable assets, such as 2household utensils, furnitureand bed clothing, contributed to an improvement in standard of living regarding comfort and hygiene in late 19th century.Improvements in agricultural production is likely to somewhat have counteracted the negative impact from the population growth and the rising proportion of the landless population. But still until the last severe crop failure, and the onset of the great emigrationwave to the US, in late 1860s bad harvests appear to have had a temporarily negative effect on health and economic wellbeing among the labouring poor. The great US emigration reducing the supply of labour contributed to pushing wages upwards and to therising standard of living of workers in late 19th century.According to the Gini-estimates inequality culminated around mid 19thcentury between farmers and workers as well as within the different social groups, and then declined substantially in late 19thcentury, contrary to the findings from studies of national level. Simultaneously the social structure changed significantly. The numbers of traditional rural groups, particularily lower agrarian workers, declined whilst the number of industrial workers,such as paper milll workers and glass work labourers, rose sharply. It is likely that the rapid overflow of low paid rural workers to better paid industrial jobs contributed to close the economic gap between different social groups. It I obvious that thechanges in the social structure within in the landless population groups, particularly the share of low rural workers, was highly decisive for the fluctuations in inequality.The results from this study highlights the importance of regional and local studies for revealing important mechanisms affecting the development of standard of living and economic inequality in a historical perspective.
    Keywords: rural standard of living; wealth inequality; 19th century; Sweden; agrarian revolution; industrialization; probate inventories
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2021–02–22
  28. By: Katharina Muhlhoff (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: Without safe and effective vaccination the current coronavirus pandemic will not get under control. Moreover, economic history suggests that even with vaccination, success is uncertain. To make this point, the present paper studies smallpox - an aggressive viral disease like Covid19 - as a model for future coronavirus immunization. Setting out from the formal basis of mathematical epidemiology and the theory of economic externalities, it finds that (i) vaccination externalities are non-monotonous in the burden of disease, that (ii) public interventions need to be tailored to the specific stages of the externality and (iii) that concrete implementation matters as much as formal institutions. To derive practical implications from these results, I retrace the prevention policies of two German states, Baden and Wurttemberg, which provide an intriguing natural experiment: Both featured similar socio-economic characteristics, both were initially ridden by smallpox and both passed mandatory vaccination laws at roughly the same time. But whereas laws hardly differed, one state - Baden - performed better in terms of epidemiological outcomes (smallpox prevalence and mortality), in cost efficiency and in measures of compliance. The main reasons for this success were the rapid implementation of mass vaccination, central coordination of vaccine supply, supervision and positive incentives for medical professionals. The bottom line of the historical case is therefore that governments which invest early in the infrastructural and personnel needs of a mass-vaccination system are likely rewarded by high popular acceptance and low disease prevalence.
    Keywords: Health Externalities, Vaccination, Smallpox, Vaccine Resistance, Government Regulation, Historical Public Health Institutions
    JEL: I12 I18 I38 N33 N43
    Date: 2021–02
  29. By: James Rockey (University of Birmingham); Nadia Zakir (University of Leicester)
    Abstract: American corporate and political elites are connected by the donations that the latter receive from the former. Using a novel dataset, this paper analyzes these connections as a social network. This analysis uncovers the changing structure of this network, and thus of the changing nature of money in US politics. In particular, beyond the well understood increase in the scale of donations, we document how donation patterns have become more polarized and more concentrated. We show that the determinants of this network's structure have remained broadly constant over time. Donors associated with the same firm or industry are substantially more likely to donate to the same candidates in all the elections we study. Likewise, politicians serving on the same congressional committees have been consistently more likely to receive campaign funds from the same donors. Yet, there has been a transformation in the concentration of donations on a small number of donors and recipients connected with a small number of committees and a small number of industries. This concentration is reflected in substantial increases in the power (centrality) of the most important donors and politicians.
    Keywords: Donations, Campaign Contributions, Networks
    JEL: D72 L14
    Date: 2021–03
  30. By: Claude Gamel (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Although they lived a century apart, Hayek might be considered as the liberal counterpart of Marx: not only both carried out transdisciplinary studies but they also used a dialectic approach. According to Hayek, the evolution of human societies cannot remain under control because the "spontaneous social order" is opposed to "organisations", an opposition that rests upon a conflict between two kinds of rationality set at the epistemological level (I). That can only be overcome through the fine tracking of "abstract rules of just conduct" in the legal order (II). However Hayek's pessimistic view holds ground and this is the result of the divergence, in the field of economics, between the rules necessary for market order and a conception of justice within society that is too ambitious and can even be so corrosive as to destroy it (III). To conclude, we shall ask the question what act as safeguard nowadays so as to allow liberal societies to survive, as Hayek sought to guarantee.
    Abstract: Hayek peut être considéré, à un siècle de distance, comme l'homologue libéral de Marx, non seulement par le caractère transdisciplinaire de la réflexion, mais surtout par le recours à une démarche dialectique. Selon Hayek, l'évolution non maîtrisable des sociétés humaines oppose « ordre social spontané » et « organisations » et repose sur un conflit de « rationalité » d'ordre épistémologique (I). Cette opposition ne peut être surmontée, dans l'ordre juridique, qu'au prix du repérage délicat de « règles abstraites de juste conduite » (II). Le pessimisme propre à Hayek résulte alors, dans le champ de l'économie, de la divergence entre les règles nécessaires à l'ordre du marché et une conception trop ambitieuse de la justice en société qui risque de le détruire (III). D'où l'évocation, en conclusion, de la pertinence aujourd'hui des garde-fous à mettre en place, pour que, selon Hayek, les sociétés libérales puissent malgré tout survivre.
    Keywords: liberalism,dialectics,organisations,rules of just conduct,liberalisme,dialectique,ordre spontané,règles de juste conduite
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P.; Burret, Heiko Tobias
    Abstract: Marginal rates of contribution (MRC), i.e., the rates at which additional revenues are skimmed via larger contributions or lower transfer receipts, quantify the incentives of a fiscal equalization scheme. The present paper is the first to calculate the marginal rates of contribution for the Laender (states) in the German fiscal equalization scheme for each of the 50 years since its establishment in 1970 and over five major reforms, taking into account all relevant revenues. Our results show that MRC have been at a consistently high level. Until 2019 the scheme induced an almost full skimming of additional tax revenues of recipient states. With the system's latest reform in 2020, MRC did increase further. Recipient states now face an over-skimming of additional tax revenues and thus, massive fiscal disincentives to maintain their own tax base. While these findings have been widely expected, comprehensive evidence has been missing so far.
    Keywords: Fiscal equalization,Marginal contribution rates,Constitutional reform
    JEL: H71 H73 H77 H11
    Date: 2021
  32. By: Cunningham, Jamein (University of Memphis); Feir, Donna (University of Victoria); Gillezeau, Rob (University of Victoria)
    Abstract: Do collective bargaining rights for law enforcement result in more civilian deaths at the hands of the police? Using an event-study design, we find that the introduction of duty to bargain requirements with police unions has led to a significant increase in non-white civilian deaths at the hands of police during the late twentieth century. We find no impact on various crime rate measures and suggestive evidence of a decline in police employment, consistent with increasing compensation. Our results indicate that the adoption of collective bargaining rights for law enforcement can explain approximately 10 percent of the total non-white civilian deaths at the hands of law enforcement between 1959 and 1988. This effect is robust to a contiguous county approach, accounting for heterogeneity in treatment timing, and numerous other specifications. While the relationship between police unions and violence against civilians is not clear ex-ante, our results show that the popular notion that police unions exacerbate police violence is empirically grounded.
    Keywords: police unions, policing, deaths by legal intervention, collective bargaining, discrimination
    JEL: J15 K42 J45 J58 N3
    Date: 2021–03
  33. By: Howard Bodenhorn
    Abstract: Penology in the Jim Crow South centered on the chain gang. Gangs ostensibly served three purposes: their severity served as a deterrent; their putting convicts to work on roads and other public improvements reduced the taxpayers’ costs of infrastructure; and their discriminatory implementation reinforced the social order defined by Jim Crow. Drawing on insights from the economics of crime literature, this paper analyzes whether chain gangs reduced road maintenance costs. Using a fixed-effects design, the analysis finds that the costs of using gangs in road maintenance were marginally lower on average than using wage labor. The results are consistent with county officials choosing between convict and free labor in manner consistent with minimizing taxpayers’ costs.
    JEL: K42 N12
    Date: 2021–01
  34. By: Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; Nientiedt, Daniel
    Abstract: [Introduction] Contrary to its usage in current political discourse, the term neoliberalism originally referred to those schools of economic thought that opposed laissez-faire liberalism and wanted to assign a more active role to the state. Faced with the economic turmoil of the late 19th and early 20th century - including the poverty of the working class, concentrations of power in the hand of large corporations and multiple monetary and economic crises - neoliberals posited that the government should intervene in private markets in order to uphold competition. [...]
    Date: 2021
  35. By: Guinnane, Timothy; Streb, Jochen
    Abstract: Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then State programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the period 1881-1910. Bismarck's social-insurance scheme had three pillars: health insurance, workplace accident insurance, and an old age pension. Earlier studies typically focus on the pension alone; we consider all three pillars. We find that Bismarck's social insurance system affected fertility overall only via its effects on the incentive to marry. The old age insurance by itself tended to reduce marriages, but the health and accident-insurance components had the opposite effect. For people exposed to all three pillars of social insurance, the two effects cancelled each other and the aggregate effect on fertility was muted.
    Keywords: Social insurance,pensions,fertility transition,marriage,Bismarck,Prussia
    JEL: H55 I13 J11 N13 N33 N43
    Date: 2021
  36. By: Claudio Ferraz (University of British Columbia); Federico Finan (UC-Berkeley); Monica Maretinez-Bravo (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how changes in the concentration of political power affect long-run development. We study Brazil’s military dictatorship whose rise to power dramatically altered the distribution of power of local political elites. We document that municipalities that were more politically concentrated prior to the dictatorship in the 1960s are relatively richer in 2000, despite being poorer initially. Our evidence suggests that this reversal of fortune was the result of the military’s policies aimed at undermining the power of traditional elites. These policies increased political competition locally, which ultimately led to better governance, more provision of public goods, and higher income levels.
    Keywords: Political power, elites, regime transition, economic development.
    JEL: D72 O43 N46
    Date: 2020–06
  37. By: Igor Gurkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Michael J. Morley (University of Limerick (Limerick, Ireland))
    Abstract: Drawing on foundational arguments from the literature on emerging market institutional strategies, and employing a realist historical analysis, we present a retrospective on the Russian automotive industry. We begin by tracing the origins of the sector and synthesizing salient post World War II developments. We then recount the subsequent expansionary decade of the 1960s, followed by the stagnation of the late 1980s, culminating in the eventual collapse of socialism and the breakup of the USSR. Attracted by both the rapid growth in the local market, and the preferential tax rates that accompanied investments, we then document the swift expansion of production facilities in Russia by major global manufacturers in the 2000s. We show how eventually an ensuing sharp halt in local market growth, and an accompanying rise in spare production capacity, saw most manufacturers pursue institutional strategies aimed at obtaining new tax concessions and leveraging intra-industry cooperation, rather than divesting their recently established production facilities. Overall, our retrospective, in particular, calls attention to how global manufacturers were able not only to acquire and rejuvenate existing production facilities or install new greenfield ones, but also to exercise their agency in shaping the broader policy framework and in fashioning new sectoral institutions designed to buttress and sustain the industry.
    Keywords: Russian automotive industry, foreign direct investment, institutional strategy, historical analysis, intra-industry cooperation, transition economy.
    JEL: F23 J23
    Date: 2021
  38. By: David S. Jacks; Martin Stuermer
    Abstract: We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new and large dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.
    Keywords: Dry bulk; maritime freight rates; structural VAR
    JEL: E30 N70 R40
    Date: 2021–03–19
  39. By: Julieta Peveri (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: There is strong evidence that national leaders matter for the performance of their nations, but little is known about what drives the direction of their effects. I assess how national leaders' quality of governance, measured by five indicators, varies with their career and education. Using text analysis and a sample of one thousand national leaders between 1932 and 2010, I identify five types of rulers: military leaders, academics, high-level politicians, low-level politicians and lawyers. Military leaders tend to be associated with a decrease in the quality of governance, whereas politicians who have held visible offices before taking power perform better. National leaders with a law background, as well as academics, can have negative effects depending on the political regime they run and on the choice of performance indicator. This highlights the heterogeneity behind the positive effect of holding a university degree, often used as a proxy for politicians' quality.
    Keywords: national leaders, politicians' quality, leaders' characteristics
    JEL: H70 N10 J45
    Date: 2021–03
  40. By: Le Masne, Pierre; Dupuy, Romuald; Roman, Philippe
    Abstract: Quesnay’s Tableau, as it appears in Philosophie rurale, is an understandable, robust and innovative construction despite detail errors. It provides a precise representation of the economic circuit. The accounts of chapter VII of Philosophie rurale are introduced and we explain how Quesnay’s Tableau comes from these accounts. The transposition of the accounts of chapter VII and of the Tableau into two input-output tables shows the balance of resources and uses. In order to shed light on the progress of exchanges along the year, the Tableau is also transposed into three double-entry accountings (proprietors, farmers and artisans).
    Date: 2020–12–01
  41. By: Maria Angeles Abellán Lopez (UV - Universitat de València); Thiago Ferreira Dias (UFRN - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte [Natal]); Carmen Nebot
    Abstract: The objective of this work is the comparative analysis of public administration reforms in Brazil and Spain during the last third of the twentieth century to the present. The main trends of modernization studied in this research are New Public Management, governance and e-administration. The methodology combines the historical analysis, the comparative method and the documentary and empirical collection of the data extracted from both administrations. Among the conclusions are similarities and singularities of each case. In both countries, modernization began as an adaptive response to social changes and reforms focused on the granting, privatization and outsourcing of contracts with private organizations as providers of public services. Among the differences are identified that in Brazil the reforms were concentrated in a very short period while in Spain they were gradual and in tune with the European Union.
    Abstract: El objetivo de este trabajo es el análisis comparado de las líneas de reformas en la administración pública de Brasil y España durante el último tercio del siglo XX hasta la actualidad. Las principales tendencias de la modernización estudiadas en esta investigación son la New Public Management, la gobernanza y la e-administración. La metodología combina el análisis histórico, el método comparado y el acopio documental y empírico de los datos extraídos de ambas administraciones. Entre las conclusiones se destacan semejanzas y singularidades de cada caso. En ambos países, la modernización se inició como respuesta adaptativa a los cambios sociales y las reformas se centraron en la concesión, privatización y externalización de contratos con organizaciones privadas como prestatarias de los servicios públicos. Entre las diferencias se identifican que en Brasil las reformas se concentraron en un período muy breve mientras que en España fueron graduales y en sintonía con la Unión Europea.
    Abstract: O objetivo deste trabalho é a análise comparativa das linhas de reformas na administração pública do Brasil e da Espanha durante o último terço do século XX até o presente. As principais tendências de modernização estudadas nesta pesquisa são Nova Gestão Pública, governança e administração eletrônica. A metodologia combina a análise histórica, o método comparativo e a coleta documental e empírica dos dados extraídos de ambas as administrações. Entre as conclusões estão as semelhanças e singularidades de cada caso. Nos dois países, a modernização começou como uma resposta adaptativa às mudanças e reformas sociais focadas na concessão, privatização e terceirização de contratos com organizações privadas como prestadoras de serviços públicos. Entre as diferenças, identifica-se que no Brasil as reformas se concentraram em um período muito curto, enquanto na Espanha se desenvolveram gradualmente e em sintonia com a União Européia.
    Keywords: Administrative Reform,Bureaucracy,New Public Management,Governance,E-Administration,Reforma administrativa,Burocracia,Gobernanza,E-administración,Nova Gestão Pública,Governança,E-administração
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Uppenberg, Carolina (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Olsson, Mats (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: The Swedish Municipality Act, issued in 1862, consolidated a plutocratic system in which ownership and income, and the resulting level of taxation, translated into political power. However, as a measure to hinder large landowners from holding a majority of the votes, the Act guaranteed voting rights for tenants. The aim of the article is to analyse how power relations played out after this challenge to landlords’ hegemony. Through an analysis of tenants’ contracts, appeals to the King in Council and minutes from municipal board meetings, we show how landlords did not trust a political culture of deference to secure power, even if they had demanded subservience in contracts. In a deliberate and specific way, they also reserved voting rights for themselves, which we find to have been a widespread pattern although it was repeatedly pointed out as illegal by the King in Council.However, through the analysis of the board meetings, it becomes clear that the position of manorial landlords in these municipalities was so obvious that they rarely had to confront their tenants with their illegal contractual restrictions. The results empirically challenge a narrative of slow but steady democratization and theoretically challenge the alleged reciprocity of landlord-tenant relations.
    Keywords: landlord; tenant farmer; municipality; Swedish Municipality Act; 1862; deference; local politics; voting rights; political culture
    JEL: N43 N53 N93
    Date: 2021–02–08
  43. By: Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: John Maynard Keynes became world famous with the publication of The Economic Consequences of the Peace in 1919, a harsh critique of the Versailles peace treaty. As a consequence, Keynes was nominated by German professors in economics for the Nobel Peace Prize three years in a row, 1922, 1923 and 1924. Because Keynes was put on the shortlist of candidates, he was evaluated in an advisory report in 1923, followed by one in 1924, prepared for the Nobel Committee of the Norwegian parliament. This paper summarizes the two reports on Keynes. The appraisals were highly appreciative of Keynes’s book as well as of his subsequent newspaper and journal articles on the peace treaty, raising the question: why did Keynes not receive the Peace Prize? The appraiser of Keynes even informed Keynes that he was “one of the foremost candidates proposed for the Nobel Peace Prize.” However, the Peace Prize was not awarded in 1923 and 1924 although Keynes was declared a worthy laureate. There are no protocols that shed light on this issue. Still, the events surrounding the evaluation process, in particular the public clash between two advisors of the Prize Committee on Keynes’s account of the negotiations at Versailles, encourage a speculative answer.
    Keywords: John Maynard Keynes; Nobel Peace Prize; Treaty of Versailles; reparations; Dawes Plan; Bretton Woods; Norway
    JEL: A11 B10 B31 D70 E12 E60 F30 F50 N10 N40
    Date: 2021–03–03
  44. By: Lucia Corno (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Eliana La Ferrara; Alessandra Voena
    Abstract: We investigate the historical origins of female genital cutting (FGC), a harmful practice widespread across Africa. We test the hypothesis .substantiated by historical sources.that FGC was connected to the Red Sea slave trade route, where women were sold as concubines in the Middle East and in.bulation was used to ensure chastity. We hypothesize that differential exposure of ethnic groups to the Red Sea route determined di¤erential adoption of the practice. Combining individual level data from 28 African countries with novel historical data on slaves.shipments by country, ethnic group and trade routes from 1400 to 1900. We find that women belonging to ethnic groups whose ancestors were exposed to the Red Sea route are more likely to be infibulated or circumcised today and are more in favor of continuing the practice. The estimated effects are very similar when slave exports are instrumented by distance to the North-Eastern African coast. Finally, the effect is smaller for ethnic groups that historicaly freely permitted premarital sex - a proxy for low demand for chastity.
    Keywords: Female Genital Cutting, Slave Trade.
    Date: 2021–02
  45. By: Enea Baselgia (HSG - University of St.Gallen, SIAW Institute); Isabel Martínez (ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich], KOF Swiss Economic Institute)
    Abstract: We estimate the ratio of private wealth to national income, βpt, for Switzerland over the period 1900-2018. Our results indicate that the development of βpt in Switzerland did not follow a U-shaped pattern as in most European countries, but that the evolution was extraordinarily stable, with βpt oscillating around 500% over most of the 20th century. However, the wealth-income ratio has been on the rise since the turn of the century to reach 721% in 2017-an unprecedented level in the past. This considerable increase is mainly driven by large capital gains in housing wealth since 2010. We present new crosscountry evidence that capital gains in housing wealth have become an important driver of rising wealth-income ratios in a series of developed economies.
    Keywords: wealth-income ratio,income distribution,economic growth,housing prices
    Date: 2020–12
  46. By: de la Croix, David (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain & CEPR, London); Goñi, Marc (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: We argue that the waning of nepotism in academia bolstered scientific production in pre-industrial Europe. We build a database of families of scholars (1088–1800), measure their scientific output, and develop a general method to disentangle nepotism from inherited human capital—two determinants of occupational persistence. This requires jointly addressing measurement error in human capital proxies and sample selection bias arising from nepotism. Our method exploits multi-generation correlations together with parent-child distributional differences to identify the structural parameters of a first-order Markov process of human capital transmission with nepotism. We find an intergenerational human capital elasticity of 0.59, higher than that suggested by parent-child elasticities, yet lower than multi-generation estimates ignoring nepotism. In early academia, 40 percent of scholars’ sons achieved their position because of nepotism. Nepotism was lower in science than in law and in Protestant than in Catholic institutions, and declined substantially during the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment—two periods of buoyant scientific advancement.
    Keywords: Intergenerational mobility; human capital transmission; nepotism; upper-tail human capital; pre-industrial Europe; simulated method of moments
    JEL: C31 E24 J10
    Date: 2021–03–16
  47. By: Michael A. Nelson; Rajeev K. Goel
    Abstract: This paper adds to our understanding of the causes of income inequality across nations by examining the influence of different aspects of gender equality or female empowerment. Whereas the economics of income inequality has been an area of active academic inquiry, the role of gender equality has largely been ignored. Are there positive spillovers from gender equality onto income equality? The answer to this question, using data for nearly 150 nations over the years 1985-2019, is in the affirmative. Specifically, nations with a history of women’s suffrage, greater representation of women in the government, lower fertility rates, and better overall gender equality experienced lower income inequality, ceteris paribus. These results are largely supported in considerations of cross-section versus pooled data, simultaneity issues, and the measurement of income inequality. The spillovers from some dimensions of gender equality are found to be sensitive to the existing prevalence of income inequality. Policymakers ignoring the payoffs from gender empowerment on income distribution might be underinvesting in initiatives to empower women.
    Keywords: income inequality, gender inequality, suffrage, fertility, women in parliament, colonialism, GINI coefficient, government, quantile regression
    JEL: D31 D63 E25 I32 J16 O15
    Date: 2021
  48. By: Simon, Fabrizio
    Abstract: Book Review of “The Accademy of Fisticuffs. Political Economy and Commercial Society in Enlightenment Italy” by Sophus A. Reinert
    Date: 2020–09–01
  49. By: Ruixue Jia; Gérard Roland; Yang Xie
    Abstract: Despite a large consensus among economists on the strong interdependence and synergy between pro-development institutions, how should one understand why Imperial China, with weaker rule of law and property rights, gave the commoners more opportunities to access elite status than Premodern Europe, for example via the civil service exam and the absence of hereditary titles? Supported by rich historical narratives, we show that these institutional differences reflect more general differences in the power structure of society: (1) the Ruler enjoyed weaker absolute power in Europe; (2) the People were more on par with the Elites in China in terms of power and rights. Based on these narratives, we build a game-theoretical model and analyze how the power structure can shape the stability of an autocratic rule. If we read greater absolute power of the Ruler as conditioning more of the power and rights of the ruled on the Ruler's will, we show that a more symmetric Elite–People relationship can stabilize autocratic rule. If absolute power is stronger, this stabilizing effect will be stronger, and the Ruler's incentive to promote such symmetry will be greater. The theory explains the power structure differences between Imperial China and Premodern Europe, as well as specific institutions such as the bureaucracy in China and the role of cities in Europe. It is also consistent with the observation that autocratic rule was more stable in Imperial China than in Premodern Europe.
    JEL: N40 O17 P48
    Date: 2021–01
  50. By: Josean Garrués-Irurzun (University of Granada, Spain); Juan A. Rubio-Mondéjar (University of Granada, Spain)
    Abstract: The commercial use of nuclear electricity represented an economic opportunity that adopted different national varieties. In Spain, the change from an “autarchic†to a “liberal†model of nuclear management consolidated the old interests of the national electric oligopoly. The objective of this article is to explain this process through a mesoeconomic perspective (inter-institutional dialectic). The main conclusion reached is that, in the face of a general hypothesis that defends the existence of a weak “reciprocal instrumentation†between political and economic interests during the transition from Francoist autarky to developmentalism, the theory of the regulatory capture is more convincing. That is, the capture of the State by the electric companies. Finally, the article should induce reflection regarding the importance that the assumption of past risks by Governments and companies may have in the assumption of current responsibilities (moratorium, dismantling, etc.).
    Keywords: regulation, nuclear energy, utilities, business history, institutions, Spain
    JEL: N24 L52 B15 L94 L98
    Date: 2021–03
  51. By: Si, Hoan Luong Cu
    Abstract: The history of the preference to use cash, especially US dollars and gold bars could be traced to the hyperinflation of the 1980s as well as the economic crisis of 2008 – 2009 which saw inflation peaking at 28.3% in Aug 2008 alone.
    Date: 2019–10–28
  52. By: Paola Azar (University of the Republic, Uruguay); Sergio Espuelas (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: By the turn of the 20th century, nation-building reformers in Spain tried to stimulate schooling expansion to improve (or at least dignify) Spain’s position in the international arena. However, in this paper we find that democratic imperfections help explaining the modest spread of primary schooling after the 1902 reforms. Regression results show that the lack of effective electoral competition and political patronage lowered public primary education spending across Spanish provinces in 1902-22. Voter turnout had a positive impact but it was not big enough to compensate for this negative effect.
    Keywords: Education, Spain, Democracy, distributive politics.
    JEL: D72 H52 I28 N33 N34
    Date: 2021
  53. By: Arthmar, Rogério; McLure, Michael
    Abstract: This study reflects on Arthur Cecil Pigou’s role in public debate during the initial phase of the First World War over whether Britain should negotiate a peace treaty with Germany. Its main goal is to provide evidence that the Cambridge Professor framed his approach to this highly controversial issue from theoretical propositions on trade, industrial peace and welfare which he had developed in previous works. After reviewing his contributions on these subjects, Pigou’s letter to The Nation, in early 1915, suggesting an open move by the Allies towards an honourable peace with Germany, is presented along with his more elaborate thoughts on this same theme put down in a private manuscript. The negative reactions to Pigou’s letter are then scrutinized, particularly the fierce editorial published by The Morning Post. A subsequent version of Pigou’s plea for peace, delivered in his London speech late in 1915, is detailed listing the essential conditions for a successful conclusion of the conflict. To come full circle, the paper recapitulates Pigou’s post-war considerations on diplomacy, free trade and colonialism. The concluding remarks bring together the theoretical and applied branches of Pigou’s thoughts on war and peace.
    Date: 2020–12–01
  54. By: Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Mohammed Laksaci (Ecole Supérieure de Banque); Mohamed Touati-Tliba (ESC Alger - ESC Alger - ESC ALGER - ESC Alger)
    Abstract: We estimate the demand for money for monetary aggregates M1 and M2, and cash in Algeria over the period 1979-2019, and study its long-run stability. We show that the transaction motive is significant for all three aggregates, especially for the demand for cash, reflecting the weight of informal economy "practices". The elasticity of the scale variable is very close to unity for M2 and M1, and even equal to unity for cash demand (1.006). The elasticity of inflation is also significant for all three aggregates, although its level is higher in the case of cash demand (-6.474). Despite the persistence of certain financial repression mechanisms, interest rate elasticity is significant for all three aggregates, but higher for M1 and cash. The same observation is made for elasticity of the exchange rate, reflecting the effect of monetary substitution, especially for M1 and cash. Finally, our study concludes that the demand for money in terms of M1 remains stable, the same observation being confirmed for the M2 aggregate. However, the demand for fiat currency proves not to be stable. The consequences for the optimal design of monetary policy in Algeria are clearly stated.
    Keywords: monetary policy,money demand,long-run stability,resource-rich countries,Algeria,co-integration
    Date: 2021–01
  55. By: Charlotte Bartels (DIW Berlin); Felix Kersting (Humboldt University Berlin); Nikolaus Wolf (Humboldt University Berlin)
    Abstract: We study the dynamics of income inequality, capital concentration, and voting outcomes before 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian counties and districts we re-evaluate the key economic debate between Marxists and their critics before 1914. We show that the increase in inequality was strongly correlated with a rising capital share, as predicted by Marxists at the time. In contrast, rising capital concentration was not associated with increasing income inequality. Relying on new sector×county data, we show that increasing strike activity worked as an offsetting factor. Similarly, the socialists did not directly benefit from rising inequality at the polls, but from the activity of trade unions. Overall, we find evidence for a rise in the bargaining power of workers, which limited the increase in inequality before 1914.
    Keywords: Income Inequality, Concentration, Top Incomes, Capital Share, Germany
    JEL: D31 D63 J31 N30
    Date: 2021–03
  56. By: May, Ann Mari
    Abstract: Book Review of “The Routledge Handbook of the History of Women’s Economic Thought” by Kirsten Madden and Robert W. Dimand
    Date: 2020–09–01
  57. By: Liam Brunt (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration - Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: A large literature characterizes urbanisation as the result of productivity growth attracting rural workers to cities. We incorporate economic geography elements into a growth model and suggest that causation runs the other way: when rural workers move to cities, the resulting urbanisation produces technological change and productivity growth. Urban density leads to knowledge exchange and innovation, thus creating a positive feedback loop between city size and productivity that sets off sustained economic growth. The model is consistent with the fact that urbanisation rates in Western Europe, and notably in England, reached unprecedented levels by the mid-18 th century, the eve of the Industrial Revolution.
    Keywords: industrialization,urbanisation,innovation,long-run growth
    Date: 2021–01

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