nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒03‒22
forty-two papers chosen by

  1. Changes in Metropolitan Area Definition, 1910-2010 By Todd Gardner
  2. The Rise and Fall of German Innovation By Naudé, Wim; Nagler, Paula
  3. Michael Polanyi's Neutral Keynesianism and The First Economics Film, 1933 to 1945 By Bíró, Gábor
  4. Water Infrastructure and Health in U.S. Cities By Brian Beach
  5. The Transition from Pigou’s Ideas on Road Pricing to their Application By Button, Kenneth John
  6. Persecution and Escape: Professional Networks and High-Skilled Emigration from Nazi Germany By Sascha O. Becker; Volker Lindenthal; Sharun Mukand; Fabian Waldinger
  7. Immigrants and the making of America By Sequeira, Sandra; Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy
  8. The Causal Effect of Transport Infrastructure: Evidence from a New Historical Database By Lindgren, Erik; Pettersson-Lidbom, Per; Tyrefors, Björn
  9. War after War: Wilhem Krelle,1916-2004 By Düppe, Till
  10. Party System Transformation and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, 1967-2019 By Carmen Durrer de la Sota; Amory Gethin; Clara Martínez-Toledano
  11. Multinationals, Monopsony, and Local Development: Evidence from the United Fruit Company By Esteban Méndez-Chacón; Diana Van Patten
  12. Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-War Czechoslovakia By Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štepán; Roesel, Felix
  13. Frank H. Knight on Social Values in Economic Consumption. An archival note By Luca Fiorito,; Massimiliano Vatiero
  14. Democracy and the Politicization of Inequality in Brazil, 1989-2018 By Amory Gethin; Marc Morgan
  15. Understanding Clarence Ayres’s criticism to an emerging mainstream and birthing institutionalism through the 1930s Ayres-Knight debate By Almeida, Felipe; Cavalieri, Marco
  16. Eating Habits: The Role of Early Life Experiences and Intergenerational Transmission By Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Elisabetta Olivieri; Eleftheria Triviza
  17. American business cycles 1889-1913: An accounting approach By Dou Jiang; Mark Weder
  18. The Long-Run Effect of Public Libraries on Children: Evidence from the Early 1900s By Karger, Ezra
  19. A production function with variable elasticity of substitution greater than one By Constantin Chilarescu
  20. Social Scientists on Crime in the 20th century By Fleury, Jean-Baptiste
  21. Land Property Rights, Cadasters and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Panel 1000-2015 CE By D'Arcy, Michelle; Nistotskaya, Marina; Olsson, Ola
  22. Social security: past, present and future By Piachaud, David
  23. CEO Stress, Aging, and Death By Mark Borgschulte; Marius Guenzel; Canyao Liu; Ulrike Malmendier
  24. Impact of Vertical Integration By H. Luke, Erin
  25. Differences in African Banking Systems: Causes and Consequences By Mutarindwa, Samuel; Schäfer, Dorothea; Stephan, Andreas
  26. JHET Interviews: Neil de Marchi By Schabas, Margaret
  27. The Link Between Capital Accumulation and Increasing Wages in an Updated Version of Smith’s Theory Of Population By Meacci, Ferdinando
  28. Extending A Regional Innovation Network: A Technology Intelligence Approach By Johannes van der Pol; Jean-Paul Rameshkoumar; Sarah Teulière; Thierry Bazerque
  29. Regional income disparities, monopoly and finance By Feldman, Maryann; Guy, Frederick; Iammarino, Simona
  30. Friendship Networks and Political Opinions: A Natural Experiment among Future French Politicians By Yann Algan; Nicolò Dalvit; Quoc-Anh Do; Alexis Le Chapelain; Yves Zenou
  31. Ferdinando Galiani’s Newtonian Social Mathematics By Patalano, Rosario
  32. Philosophical Foundations of Environmental Policy Analysis: Can Critical Realism Bridge the Neopositivist/Interpretivist Divide? By Carter, Andrew Pearce
  33. In the name of the father? Fertility, religion and child naming in the demographic transition By Connor, Dylan
  34. Remittances, monetary institutions, and autocracies By Garriga, Ana Carolina; Meseguer, Covadonga
  35. Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry By Neil R. Ericsson
  36. International Co-movements of Inflation, 1851-1913 By Stefan Gerlach; Rebecca Stuart
  37. La conceptualización del salario en las distintas vertientes de teoría económica By Gallo, Marcos Esteban
  38. Ultra-low tax regime in Imperial China, 1368-1911 By Deng, Kent
  39. Are autocracies bad for the environment? Global evidence from two centuries of data By Apra Sinha; Ashish Kumar Sedai; Abhishek Kumar; Rabindra Nepal
  40. The efficiency of the Chinese silver standard, 1920-33 By Nuno Palma; Liuyan Zhao
  41. Lost in transition? The persistence of dictatorship mayors By Gonzalez, Felipe; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
  42. Understanding the Economic, Social, and Political Trends of International Migration By Zakiyyah, Varachia

  1. By: Todd Gardner
    Abstract: The Census Bureau was established as a permanent agency in 1902, as industrialization and urbanization were bringing about rapid changes in American society. The years following the establishment of a permanent Census Bureau saw the first attempts at devising statistical geography for tabulating statistics for large cities and their environs. These efforts faced several challenges owing to the variation in settlement patterns, political organization, and rates of growth across the United States. The 1910 census proved to be a watershed, as the Census Bureau offered a definition of urban places, established the first census tract boundaries for tabulating data within cities, and introduced the first standardized metropolitan area definition. It was not until the middle of the twentieth century, however, the Census Bureau in association with other statistical agencies had established a flexible standard metropolitan definition and a more consistent means of tabulating urban data. Since 1950, the rules for determining the cores and extent of metropolitan areas have been largely regarded as comparable. In the decades that followed, however, a number of rule changes were put into place that accounted for metropolitan complexity in differing ways, and these have been the cause of some confusion. Changes put into effect with the 2000 census represent a consensus of sorts for how to handle these issues.
    Keywords: statistical geography, metropolitan areas, urbanized areas, history
    Date: 2021–02
  2. By: Naudé, Wim (University College Cork); Nagler, Paula (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: In this paper, we describe the historical co-evolution of innovation and economic growth in Germany since 1871. The country's rise as an industrial power in the late 19th century, through its innovation and entrepreneurial performance, is contrasted with the post-World War II period. This latter period, although it contained the German economic miracle, was nevertheless a period during which innovation went into relative decline. We document this decline and offer four broad, interrelated explanations: (i) an innovation system locked into incremental innovation, (ii) a slowdown in the diffusion of technology, (iii) weaknesses in the education system, and (iv) entrepreneurial stagnation. Implications for policy are noted. Our paper contributes to the growing literature attempting to understand the decline in business dynamism that characterises many advanced economies.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, inequality, innovation, productivity, technology
    JEL: D31 L26 O33 O38 O52
    Date: 2021–03
  3. By: Bíró, Gábor
    Abstract: This paper explores the history of the first economics film, made by Michael Polanyi. It traces the evolution of the film from the first idea to the latest version. It portrays Polanyi's motives for making the film, the contexts in which the film was embedded and its perception by various individuals and communities. The paper demonstrates the novelty of both the content and the presentation of Polanyi's economic ideas through the eyes of his contemporaries. It discusses why it was important for Polanyi to make a film about the circulation of money and the principle of neutrality and comments on what historiographers of economic thought might learn if they put a stronger emphasis on visual representations in their pursuits.
    Date: 2020–09–01
  4. By: Brian Beach
    Abstract: Between 1900 and 1930 typhoid fever and other waterborne diseases were largely eradicated from U.S. cities. This achievement required a mix of technological, scientific, economic, and bureaucratic innovations. This article examines how the interaction of those forces influenced water and sanitary infrastructure provision during the 19th and early 20th centuries. I show the sharp link between infrastructure investments and declines in waterborne disease and discuss how that relationship informs the methodological approaches one should use to assess the impact of sanitary investments on urban development. Finally, I review the literature on the social returns to eliminating the threat of waterborne disease. The evidence suggests the benefits of infrastructure investment far exceeded the costs.
    JEL: I0 N0
    Date: 2021–03
  5. By: Button, Kenneth John
    Abstract: A century ago Arthur Pigou published The Economics of Welfare. Within this volume are a few lines relating to the pricing of traffic congestion. Over the years, these lines have attracted the attention and thoughts of some of the leading economists of their day. These have included, Knight, Clapham, and Robertson in the 1920s, Kahn and Viner in the 1930s, Ellis and Fellner in the 1940s, and Buchanan, Vickrey, Solow, Friedman, Walters, Demsetz, Newbery, and Allais in the post-World War II period. Here I look at the academic arguments from the 1920s concerning how roads should be priced, and by whom. I then move to consider the continuation of the intellectual debates after World War II and their implications for policy design and implementation. Finally, I briefly look at the extent to which some of the existing road congestion pricing systems meet the requirements of the economic theory.
    Date: 2020–09–01
  6. By: Sascha O. Becker; Volker Lindenthal; Sharun Mukand; Fabian Waldinger
    Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating the escape of persecuted academics from Nazi Germany. From 1933, the Nazi regime started to dismiss academics of Jewish origin from their positions. The timing of dismissals created individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of emigration from Nazi Germany, allowing us to estimate the causal effect of networks for emigration decisions. Academics with ties to more colleagues who had emigrated in 1933 or 1934 (early émigrés) were more likely to emigrate. The early émigrés functioned as “bridging nodes” that helped other academics cross over to their destination. Furthermore, we provide some of the first empirical evidence of decay in social ties over time. The strength of ties also decays across space, even within cities. Finally, for high-skilled migrants, professional networks are more important than community networks.
    Keywords: professional networks, high-skilled emigration, Nazi Germany, Jewish academics, universities
    JEL: I20 I23 I28 J15 J24 N30 N34 N40 N44
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Sequeira, Sandra; Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy
    Abstract: We study the effects of European immigration to the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1920) on economic prosperity. Exploiting cross-county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network, we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment today. The long-run effects seem to capture the persistence of short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.
    Keywords: Economic development; Historical persistence; Immigration
    JEL: B52 F22 O10 O40
    Date: 2020–01
  8. By: Lindgren, Erik (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Pettersson-Lidbom, Per (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Tyrefors, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) and Department of Economics, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways on three measures of local economic activity: real nonagricultural income, agricultural land values and population size. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 regions, i.e., local governments, during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event study design that is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity. Importantly, we find extremely large reduced-form effects of having access to railways. For real nonagricultural income, the cumulative treatment effect is approximately 120% after 30 years. Therefore, this effect is 20 times larger than most reduced-form effects found in previous works on the effect of transport infrastructure on economic activity. Equally important, we also show that our reduced-form effect reflects growth rather than a reorganization of existing economic activity.
    Keywords: railways; transport infrastructure; real income; land value; event study; treatment heterogeneity
    JEL: H54 L92 N73 O22 R12 R42
    Date: 2021–03–08
  9. By: Düppe, Till
    Abstract: Wilhelm Krelle (1916-2004) had two careers; one before 1945 as an officer in the German Army (Wehrmacht), and a second after 1945 as an economist in West Germany. After retirement, he was honored as the economist who brought modern modeling techniques, Lawrence Klein’s macro-econometrics in particular, from the U.S. to West Germany. After his engagement in the reform of East German economics, however, his person was discredited as his early career became public. This essay reconstructs Krelle’s career in his attempt and struggle to maintain moral integrity in and between the various domains of his troubled life as officer, economist, political adviser, father, and husband.
    Date: 2020–09–01
  10. By: Carmen Durrer de la Sota (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Clara Martínez-Toledano (Imperial College London, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper combines post-electoral surveys to study the transformation of the structure of political cleavages in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland over the last five decades. Despite their history of linguistic, regional, and religious conflicts, all four countries share a common tradition of consensus decision-making, which has remained until the present. Yet, the weakening of historical cleavages, the emergence of new political formations (i.e. Green parties on the left and anti-immigration parties on the right), and the rise of new divides have significantly transformed their party systems since the 1980s. Support for green and left-wing parties among highest-educated voters, and for anti-immigration parties among the lower-educated has grown, while top-income earners have remained instead more supportive of the traditional right. Both the rise of new green and anti-immigration parties, but also changes within old parties have thus led to the emergence of "multi-elite party systems", as it has been shown in other Western democracies.
    Date: 2021–03
  11. By: Esteban Méndez-Chacón; Diana Van Patten
    Abstract: This paper studies the short- and long-run effects of large firms on economic development. We use evidence from one of the largest multinationals of the 20th century: the United Fruit Company (UFCo). The firm was given a large land concession in Costa Rica—one of the so-called "Banana Republics"—from 1899 to 1984. Using administrative census data with census-block geo-references from 1973 to 2011, we implement a geographic regression discontinuity design that exploits a quasi-random assignment of land. We find that the firm had a positive and persistent effect on living standards. Company documents explain that a key concern at the time was to attract and maintain a sizable workforce, which induced the firm to invest heavily in local amenities that can account for our result. Consistent with this mechanism, we show, empirically and through a proposed model, that the firm's welfare effect is increasing in worker mobility.
    Keywords: Long-run development; Monopsony power; Foreign firms
    JEL: F23 N16 O43
    Date: 2021–03–15
  12. By: Grossmann, Jakub (CERGE-EI); Jurajda, Štepán (CERGE-EI); Roesel, Felix (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
    Abstract: How do staying minorities that evade ethnic cleansing integrate into re-settled communities? After World War Two, three million ethnic Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland, but some were allowed to stay, many of them left-leaning anti-fascists. We study quasi-experimental local variation in the number of anti-fascist Germans staying in post-war Czechoslovakia and find a long-lasting footprint: Communist party support, party cell frequencies, far-left values, and social policies are stronger today where anti-fascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Our findings also suggest that political identity supplanted German ethnic identity among stayers who faced new local ethnic majorities.
    Keywords: forced migration, displacement, ethnic cleansing, stayers, minorities, identity, integration, communist party, Czechoslovakia, Sudetenland
    JEL: J15 F22 D72 D74 N34
    Date: 2021–03
  13. By: Luca Fiorito,; Massimiliano Vatiero
    Abstract: This note reproduces an unpublished paper on "Social Values in Economic Consumption" which Knight prepared for the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) Summer Conference, on Nantucket, Massachusetts in June 1931. This paper sheds new light on Knight in two important respects. First, it presents, in a more systematic fashion, Knight’s criticism of what he perceived to be the then standard theory of consumption. Specifically, Knight argued that an individual's consumption is dictated more by his income in relation to others than by mere utility maximization—a notion now commonly known as relative income hypothesis. In this connection, Knight also pointed out that a general increase in income, not only leaves the individual’s relative position in society unaltered but makes her/his situation worse off due to the peculiar characteristics of the market for “personal services.†Second, this unpublished address provides further evidence of how, in spite of some substantial differences in terms of methodology, his research interests converged in many respects with those of the institutionalists.
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the transformation of electoral cleavages in Brazil since 1989 using a novel assembly of electoral surveys. Brazilian political history since redemocratization is largely a history of the rise and fall of the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT). We show that the election of Lula da Silva as President in 2002, followed by the implementation of redistributive policies by successive PT governments, was at the origin of the marked socioeconomic cleavages that emerged. In a relatively short space of time the PT transformed itself from a party of the young, highly educated, high-income elite of the Southern party of the country, to a party of the poor and lesser educated voters, increasingly located in the disadvantaged region of the Northeast. Controlling for a host of socio-demographic factors, a voter in the Northeast was 20 percentage points more likely to vote for the PT in 2018 than voters in other regions, compared to being 5 percentage points less likely to do so in 1989. In sharp contrast to other western democracies, political conflict in Brazil has followed an increasingly unidimensional class-based path. This culminated in the unification of elites and large parts of the middle class behind Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election. We argue that contextual policy-driven factors and programmatic alliances are key to understand the PT's singular evolution, and thus the transformation of electoral cleavages in Brazil.
    Date: 2021–03
  15. By: Almeida, Felipe; Cavalieri, Marco
    Abstract: Clarence Ayres was a strong dissenting voice in US economics during the 20th century. In the 1930s, a debate between Ayres and Frank Knight was published by the International Journal of Ethics. Although the debate focused on ethics, the evolution of economics was also discussed. This paper proposes an understanding of Ayres’s ideas based on the context in which he made them. This context is defined by the 1930s Ayres-Knight debate and the archival correspondence between Ayres and Knight during the 1930s.
    Date: 2020–09–01
  16. By: Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Elisabetta Olivieri; Eleftheria Triviza
    Abstract: This study explores the long-run effects of a temporary scarcity of a consump- tion good on individuals' preferences towards that good when the shock is over. We focus on people that passed their childhood during World War II and exploit the temporary fall in meat availability that they experienced early in life. We combine hand collected historical data on the number of livestock at the regional level with microdata on eating habits and meat consumption. By exploiting cohort and re- gional variation in a difference-in-differences estimation, we show that individuals that as children were more exposed to meat scarcity tend to consume more meat during late adulthood. Consistently with medical studies on the side effects of meat overconsumption, we find that these individuals have also a higher probability of being overweight and suffering from cardiovascular disease. The effects are larger for women and persist intergenerationally as the adult children of mothers who have experienced meat scarcity also tend to over-consume meat. Our results point towards a behavioral channel from early-life shocks into adult health and eating habits that we illustrate through a theoretical model of reference dependence and taste formation.
    Keywords: eating habits, preferences, early life experiences, intergenerational transmission, reference dependence, gender differences
    JEL: D12 I10 N44
    Date: 2021–03
  17. By: Dou Jiang; Mark Weder
    Abstract: This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were primarily caused by factors that affect the efficiency wedge, i.e. slumps in the economy’s factor productivity. Distortions to the labor wedge played a less important role. Models with financial market frictions that translate into the efficiency wedge are the most promising candidates for explaining the recessionary episodes.
    Keywords: Business cycles, Depression of the 1890s, Recession of 1907
    JEL: E32 E44 N11
    Date: 2021–01
  18. By: Karger, Ezra
    Abstract: Between 1890 and 1921, Andrew Carnegie funded the construction of 1,618 public libraries in cities and towns across the United States. I link these library construction grants to census data and measure the effect of childhood public library access on adult outcomes. Library construction grants increased children's educational attainment by 0.10 years, did not affect wage income, and increased non-wage income by 4%. These income effects are driven by occupational choice. Access to a public library caused children to shift away from occupations like manual labor, factory-work, and mining into safer and more prestigious occupations like farm-ownership, clerical, and technical jobs. I show that compulsory schooling laws had parallel effects on children, increasing educational attainment, non-wage income and occupational prestige without affecting wage income. Economists often rely solely on wage income to measure the returns to education. But public libraries and compulsory schooling laws in the early 1900s increased educational attainment and had positive effects on children's adult labor market outcomes without affecting wage income.
    Date: 2021–01–28
  19. By: Constantin Chilarescu
    Abstract: The idea of this paper comes from the famous remark of Piketty and Zuckman: "It is natural to imagine that $\sigma$ was much less than one in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and became larger than one in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. One expects a higher elasticity of substitution in high-tech economies where there are lots of alternative uses and forms for capital." The main aim of this paper is to prove the existence of a production function of variable elasticity of substitution with values greater than one.
    Date: 2021–03
  20. By: Fleury, Jean-Baptiste (CYU Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: Social scientific research on crime in the 20th century
    Date: 2021–03–11
  21. By: D'Arcy, Michelle (Trinity College Dublin); Nistotskaya, Marina (University of Gothenburg); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: Since the transition to agricultural production, property rights to land have been a key institution for economic development. Clearly defined land rights provide economic agents with increased access to credit, secure returns on investment, free up resources used to defend one's land rights, and facilitate land market transactions. Formalized land records also strengthen governments' capacity to tax land-owners. Despite a large body of extant micro-level empirical studies, macro-level research on the evolution of formal rights to land, and their importance for economic growth, has so far been lacking. In this paper, we present a novel data set on the emergence of state-administered cadasters (i.e. centralized land records) for 159 countries over the last millennium. We also analyze empirically the association between the development of cadastral institutions and long-run economic growth in a panel of countries. Our findings demonstrate a substantive positive effect of the introduction of cadasters on modern per capita income levels, supporting theoretical conjectures that states with more formalized property rights to land should experience higher levels of economic growth.
    Keywords: cadaster; property rights; growth
    JEL: N20 O43
    Date: 2021–03
  22. By: Piachaud, David
    Abstract: Over the past century, social security in advanced economies has been transformed, and in this paper the history of its growth and some of the causes are reviewed. Yet poverty has not ended and many question the future of social security. Four systems of social security are discussed: social assistance, social insurance, targeted universal benefits and universal basic income. Possible reforms and steps to promote the survival of social security as a core element of a just and civilised society are proposed.
    Keywords: social security; social protection; poverty; targeting; basic income
    JEL: E6 N0
    Date: 2020–12–07
  23. By: Mark Borgschulte; Marius Guenzel; Canyao Liu; Ulrike Malmendier
    Abstract: We estimate the long-term effects of experiencing high levels of job demands on the mortality and aging of CEOs. The estimation exploits variation in takeover protection and industry crises. First, using hand-collected data on the dates of birth and death for 1,605 CEOs of large, publicly-listed U.S. firms, we estimate the resulting changes in mortality. The hazard estimates indicate that CEOs’ lifespan increases by two years when insulated from market discipline via anti-takeover laws, and decreases by 1.5 years in response to an industry-wide downturn. Second, we apply neural-network based machine-learning techniques to assess visible signs of aging in pictures of CEOs. We estimate that exposure to a distress shock during the Great Recession increases CEOs’ apparent age by one year over the next decade. Our findings imply significant health costs of managerial stress, also relative to known health risks.
    JEL: G01 G3 I10 J01
    Date: 2021–03
  24. By: H. Luke, Erin
    Abstract: Vertical integration is a powerful, and complex business strategy that when used under the right conditions can positively impact an organization. A company’s strategists need to understand what dimensions of integration to use, and the best time to use it. De Beers is a company with a controversial history of being an anti-competitive monopoly. By strategizing into a vertical integrated company De beers has added value to its company by not only targeting the retail, and industrial market, but also the I.T. industry. Forward and backward integration has helped organizations like De Beers maintain control over its inputs and outputs. Rather than just buying all diamond mines, and stock piling the material in order to control the prices, De Beers has embraced change by focusing on new emerging industries. Through vertical strategy and new ownership De Beers is turning its company around in a very competitive luxury industry. Organizations should be aware of the costs of vertical integration when exploring its potential. Bureaucratic costs, and companies becoming too large and inflexible under certain environments can become a problem. Vertical integration is a powerful strategy, but it must always be under scrutiny, and redesigned when the external and internal environment deems change necessary.
    Keywords: Bureaucratic costs; Competitive Advantage; De Beers; Vertical integration; Ownership
    JEL: A10 A19 L00
    Date: 2021–03–07
  25. By: Mutarindwa, Samuel; Schäfer, Dorothea; Stephan, Andreas
    Abstract: This paper links banking system development to the colonial and legal history of African countries. Based on a sample of 40 African countries from 2000 to 2018, our empirical findings show a significant dependence of current financial institutions on the inherited legal origin and the colonization type. Findings also reveal that current financial legal institutions are not major determinants of banking system development, and that institutional development and governance quality are more important. A high share of government spending relative to GDP also positively affects banking system development in African countries.
    Keywords: Legal origin,colonial history,financial institutions,banking system,correlated random effects model
    JEL: G21 G38 G39 K15 K40
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Schabas, Margaret
    Abstract: Interview with Neil de Marchi, published on the Journal of the History of Economic Thought
    Date: 2020–09–01
  27. By: Meacci, Ferdinando
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to focus, within Adam Smith’s system of thought, on the various aspects of the twofold link between the accumulation of capital and the demand for labor, on the one hand, and between an increasing population and increasing wages, on the other. This link is examined, first, in the light of the relationship between the principles of self-interest and competition; and, secondly, in support of the possibility (neglected by Smith) that the long-run supply of labor may fall short of the long-run demand for it. The paper’s main argument is that this possibility is peacefully implemented in advancing economies by the “uniform, constant, and uninterrupted effort of every man to better his condition” which lies behind a continuous process of capital accumulation (including technical progress) along with the birth control techniques so widely used in our times.
    Date: 2020–09–01
  28. By: Johannes van der Pol; Jean-Paul Rameshkoumar; Sarah Teulière; Thierry Bazerque
    Abstract: In France, Regions do not make their own innovation policies, this is the role of the State. A Region implements national policies and uses grants and subsidies to create and dynamize innovation eco-systems important for its economic development. The Region’s role is therefore largely influential. In order to influence one needs to how and when to exert this influence. A precise understanding of an innovation eco-system is therefore of vital importance. On the occasion of the venue of a Nobel laureate to the French region of Nouvelle-Aquitaine the regional counsel aimed to connect her with the regional innovation eco-system around her research. The purpose of this paper is to show methods and techniques using patents, scientific publications and non-patent literature citations that can help with the identification of an innovation eco-system and how to integrate a researcher into this eco-system.
    Keywords: NPL ; Technology Intelligence ; Patents ; innovation networks
    JEL: R11 O34
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Feldman, Maryann; Guy, Frederick; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: The overall rise in inequality in the USA since 1980 has been matched by a rise in inequality between places; local and regional development policies aimed at reversing this polarisation have seen limited success. We propose an explanation for the spatial polarisation of prosperity and the failure of the policies to remedy it. Our explanation is based on the interaction of monopoly power, agglomeration economies in technology clusters and the power of financial sector actors over non-financial firms—all phenomena characteristic of the post-1980 economy. We review evidence for each of these elements and propose some causal relationships between them, as an outline of an ongoing research programme.
    Keywords: Regional income distribution; Monopoly; Technology clusters; Platforms; Financialization; Spatial inequality; LSE OA Fund
    JEL: O33 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–12–31
  30. By: Yann Algan (Département d'économie); Nicolò Dalvit (Département d'économie); Quoc-Anh Do (Département d'économie); Alexis Le Chapelain; Yves Zenou (Research Institute of Industrial Economics)
    Abstract: We study how social interaction and friendship shape students' political opinions in a natural experiment at Sciences Po, the cradle of top French politicians. We exploit arbitrary assignments of students into short-term integration groups before their scholar cursus, and use the pairwise indicator of same-group membership as instrumental variable for friendship. After six months, friendship causes a reduction of differences in opinions by one third of the standard deviation of opinion gap. The evidence is consistent with a homophily-enforced mechanism, by which friendship causes initially politically-similar students to join political associations together, which reinforces their political similarity, without exercising an effect on initially politically-dissimilar pairs. Friendship affects opinion gaps by reducing divergence, therefore polarization and extremism, without forcing individuals' views to converge. Network characteristics also matter to the friendship effect.
    Keywords: Extremism; Friendship Effect; Homophily; Learning; Natural experiment; Polarization; Politcal opinion; Social networks
    JEL: C93 D72 Z13
    Date: 2019–06
  31. By: Patalano, Rosario
    Abstract: The evolution of Ferdinando Galiani’s thought toward social mathematic has been neglected by scholars, and his attempt to establish political arguments on the analytical basis remains unexplored. The non-systematic nature of Galiani’s intuitions, due to his laziness, largely justifies this underestimation of his scientific program. This paper intends to show that the mature abbé Galiani follows an intellectual itinerary autonomous and parallel to that followed by Marquis de Condorcet in the same years. The anti-Physiocratique querelle represents Galiani’s methodological maturation. In contrast with Physiocratic economic doctrine, based on the primacy of deductive methodology, Galiani claims for economic science the realism of circumstance against aprioristic axiomatic hypotheses and rationalist generalizations. Galiani’s project, substantially similar to Marquis de Condorcet’s approach to social science, can be defined as Newtonian social mathematics opposed to Physiocratic Cartesian social mathematics.
    Date: 2020–09–01
  32. By: Carter, Andrew Pearce (Defenders of Wildlife)
    Abstract: Traditional environmental policy analysis has followed a neopositivist epistemological frame, using the natural sciences as a template as to how social-ecological problems can be analyzed. Such approaches to policy analysis have been caught up in the same crisis as the social sciences have in general: an overarching failure to create a predictive science of society or to consistently provide solutions to social problems. This has led some policy researchers to align with the interpretivist turn, which has had its own drawbacks. In this review I summarize the historical development and main tenets of both approaches, examining their advantages and disadvantages. I then review an alternative epistemological approach to social science, critical realism, which combines an ontological realism with an epistemological relativism, a focus on elucidating causal mechanisms in the social-ecological systems studied, an approach that may be particularly suited for analyzing the complex social-ecological systems studied in environmental policy analysis.
    Date: 2021–01–28
  33. By: Connor, Dylan
    Abstract: This article shows that parents reveal information about their fertility behavior through how they name their children. I arrive at this finding from detailed examination of the net fertility of 130,000 married couples in Ireland circa 1910, a country known for its historically high fertility rate. After stringently accounting for the occupation, religion and location of couples, I find higher fertility rates among couples who chose distinctly Catholic names and traditional names for their children, with the latter being particularly important. Exposure to towns and cities lowered net fertility and weakened preferences for traditional and Catholic names. Cumulatively, these findings highlight the role of traditional rural norms over explicitly religious influences in driving high fertility rates in Ireland. The impact of towns and cities in reducing net fertility suggests that Ireland’s sluggish urbanization was a key factor in its high historical fertility rate.
    Date: 2021–03–07
  34. By: Garriga, Ana Carolina; Meseguer, Covadonga
    Abstract: How do remittances affect the choice of exchange rate regimes? Previous research shows that remittances, by easing the ‘impossible trinity’, increase the probability of governments adopting fixed exchange rates. However, that research overlooks the conditioning effect of monetary and political institutions. We argue that remittances, by altering recipient governments’ incentives to use monetary policy counter-cyclically, make central bank independence a credible anti-inflationary tool in less credible regimes; that is, autocracies. Thus, autocracies that receive remittances do not need to rely on fixed exchange rates. In this way, remittances open policy alternatives for developing autocracies. Statistical tests on a sample of 87 developing and transitional countries between 1980 and 2010 support our argument.
    Keywords: Remittances; central bank independence; exchange rate regimes; autocracies; developing countries
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2019–10–02
  35. By: Neil R. Ericsson (Division of International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
    Abstract: David Hendry has made-and continues to make-pivotal contributions to the econometrics of empirical economic modeling, economic forecasting, econometrics software, substantive empirical economic model design, and economic policy. This paper reviews his contributions by topic, emphasizing the overlaps between different strands in his research and the importance of real-world problems in motivating that research.
    Keywords: cointegration, consumers' expenditure, dynamic specification, equilibrium correction, forecasting, machine learning, model evaluation, money demand, PcGive, structural breaks
    JEL: C52 C53
    Date: 2021–03
  36. By: Stefan Gerlach; Rebecca Stuart
    Abstract: We study co-movements of inflation in a group of 15 countries before and during the classical Gold Standard by fitting a generalisation of the Ciccarelli-Mojon (2010) model on annual data spanning 1851-1913. We find that international inflation functions as an "attractor" for domestic inflation rates. The cross-sectional dispersion of inflation declined gradually over the sample and Bai-Perron tests for structural breaks at unknown points in time suggest that there are breaks in six of reduced-form inflation equations. However, sub-sample estimates indicate that the overall finding that international inflation is an important influence on domestic inflation.
    Keywords: international inflation, Gold standard, principal components, factor analysis.
    JEL: E31 F40 N10
    Date: 2021–03
  37. By: Gallo, Marcos Esteban
    Abstract: El presente trabajo procura llevar a cabo una reflexión teórica acerca de la conceptualización de los salarios reales y nominales en algunas de las principales doctrinas económicas. En tal sentido, se realiza un análisis comparativo de las diferentes concepciones sobre el salario, predominantes en la teoría neoclásica, la teoría keynesiana y el pensamiento marxista. Al respecto, para el pensamiento neoclásico los salarios se ven prioritariamente influidos por las fuerzas del mercado, mientras que para la teoría keynesiana guardan relación inversa con el nivel de empleo, de acuerdo a los principios de la productividad marginal del trabajo. Por su parte, para el pensamiento marxista resulta central la fase del ciclo en que se encuentre la economía, así como el estado de la lucha de clases. Asimismo, se estudia el modo en que determinados modelos de acumulación pueden imponer límites al intervalo dentro del cual pueden variar los salarios reales, haciendo referencia a algunas problemáticas específicas de la economía argentina, como la restricción externa de la economía y la orientación predominantemente exportadora y/o mercado internista de la estructura productiva.
    Keywords: Salario Real; Salario Nominal; Doctrinas Económicas;
    Date: 2020
  38. By: Deng, Kent
    Keywords: state-peasant alliance; benevolent rule; rent-seeking; tax-burden; mass rebellions; village autonomy
    JEL: B10 H11 N35 N45
    Date: 2021–02
  39. By: Apra Sinha; Ashish Kumar Sedai; Abhishek Kumar; Rabindra Nepal
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the rule of law on carbon-dioxide emissions using a large sample of countries for over a century. In principle, the turning point of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is compared for a range of countries lying between autocracy and democracy. Using decadal data for 220 years (1790-2010) and 150 countries, we use country fixed effects estimation technique to quantify the absolute and interactive effects of autocracy-democracy index on carbon-dioxide emissions. Results show that democracies emit less carbon-dioxide for one unit increase in per-capita income, leading to lower turning point and thus lower emission. The turning point in case of autocracies are more than twice of the turning point for democracies. Electoral autocracies have lower turning point in comparison to closed autocracies. Point estimates are robust to alternative estimation techniques and are not likely to be influenced by omitted variable biases. Strengthening rule enforcement and improving access to justice can be critical in decreasing carbon-dioxide emissions.
    Keywords: EKC, Turning Point, Rule of law, Democracy, Autocracy
    JEL: Q50 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2021–02
  40. By: Nuno Palma; Liuyan Zhao
    Date: 2020
  41. By: Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We look at Chile’s transition to democracy in 1990 to study the persistence of authoritarian politics at the local level. Using new data on the universe of mayors appointed by the Pinochet dictatorship (1973-1990), and leveraging on the arbitrary election rules that characterized the first local election in 1992, we present two main findings. First, dictatorship mayors obtained a vote premium that is larger among the last wave of incumbents and appears partially explained by an increase in local spending. Second, dictatorship mayors who were democratically elected in 1992 brought votes for the parties that collaborated with the dictatorship in subsequent elections held in democracy. These results show that the body of politicians appointed by a dictatorship can contribute to the persistence of elites and institutions.
    Date: 2021–01–27
  42. By: Zakiyyah, Varachia
    Abstract: This study synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐World War II global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐World War II migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, substitution effects can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
    Keywords: migration, trends, determinants, policy, visa, refugee
    JEL: J1 J15 J6 J61 J62
    Date: 2020

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