nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒03‒15
thirty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Revising the Canon: How Andy Warhol Became the Most Important American Modern Artist By David W. Galenson
  2. Prices, Wages, and Welfare in Early Colonial South Australia, 1836-1850 By Edwyna Harris; Sumner La Croix
  3. On the Origins of the Demographic Transition Rethinking the European Marriage Pattern. By Faustine Perrin
  4. On the divergence of early and contemporary HRM theories By Gordon, Anna
  5. Le stime economiche della CIA e l’imprevedibile fine dell’URSS By Luciano Segreto
  6. When liberty presupposes order: F. A. Hayek's learning ordoliberalism By Kolev, Stefan
  7. Family and Women in Alfred Marshall’s Analysis of Progress and Well-being. By Virginie Gouverneur
  8. in brief... The long shadow of slavery By Luna Bellani; Anselm Hager; Stephan Maurer
  9. Economic uncertainty and divisive politics: evidence from the dos Españas By Sandra García-Uribe; Hannes Mueller; Carlos Sanz
  10. Review of “Ideas in the History of Economic Development – The Case of Peripheral Countries” edited by Estrella Trincado, Andrés Lazzarini, and Denis Melnik By Boianovsky, Mauro
  11. Debates on Muslim Caste in North India and Pakistan By Julien Levesque
  12. Financial Returns to Collecting Rare Political Economy Books By Heinrich Ursprung
  13. Intergenerational Homeownership in France over the 20th Century By Bertrand Garbinti; Frédérique Savignac
  14. Agri-Culture of the Motherland. The effect of Land Inequality on Gender Equality Beliefs By Argyris Sakalis
  15. The Economic Geography of Ottoman Anatolia: People, Places, and Political Economy around 1530 By Metin M. Cosgel; Sadullah Yıldırım
  16. An extensible model for historical financial data with an application to German company and stock market data By Gram, Dennis; Karapanagiotis, Pantelis; Krzyzanowski, Jan; Liebald, Marius; Walz, Uwe
  17. Review of “Economists at War. How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars” by Alan Bollard By Alacevich, Michele
  18. Build back happier By Richard Layard
  19. Review of “Expectations. Theory and Application from Historical Perspective” edited by Arie Arnon, Warren Young and Karine van der Beek By Sergi, Francesco
  20. Welfare gains through globalization: Evidence from Japan's manufacturing sector By Takahide Aoyagi; Tadashi Ito; Toshiyuki Matsuura
  21. The Political Economy of the Prussian Three-class Franchise By Sascha O. Becker; Erik Hornung
  22. Productivity, managers' social connections and the Great Recession By Iftekhar Hasan; Stefano Manfredonia
  23. The Origination and Distribution of Money Market Instruments: Sterling Bills of Exchange during the First Globalization By Olivier Accominotti; Delio Lucena-Piquero; Stefano Ugolini
  24. Review of “A Philosopher’s Economist: Hume and the Rise of Capitalism” by Margaret Schabas and Carl Wennerlind By Skjönsberg, Max
  25. The Achievements of Implementing the Prize Competitions for the Saxon Textile Industry during the Late Half of 18th Century By Seiji Horii
  26. Replicating the Dow Jones Industrial Average By Jacky Lin; Genevieve C. Selden; John B. Shoven; Clemens Sialm
  27. Income Dynamics in Sweden 1985-2016 By Benjamin Friedrich; Lisa Laun; Costas Meghir
  28. Lessons from History, Policy for Today By Mary C. Daly
  29. Effectiveness of International Migration since Early Stage By Akasaka, Shintaro
  30. Homo moralis goes to the voting booth: a new theory of voter turnout By Alger, Ingela; Laslier, Jean-François
  31. Pensiones Ley 97 del IMSS. México By Villalobos Lopez, Jose Antonio
  32. What has been happening to Indonesia’s Manufacturing Industry? By Kiki Verico

  1. By: David W. Galenson (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))
    Abstract: Quantitative analysis of narratives of art history published since 2000 reveals that scholars and critics now judge that Andy Warhol has surpassed Jackson Pollock and Jasper Johns as the most important modern American painter. Auction prices suggest that collectors share this opinion. Disaggregated analysis of the published narratives by decade reveals that Warhol first gained clear critical recognition as the leading Pop artist in the 1990s, and then as the most important American artist overall in the 2000s. This rise in Warhol’s status appears initially to have been a result of his enormous influence on Jean-Michel Basquiat, Keith Haring, and others in the cohort that transformed the New York art world in the 1980s, and subsequently of his persisting influence on leading artists around the world who have emerged since the 1990s, including Damien Hirst, Takashi Murakami, and Ai Weiwei. Warhol’s many radical conceptual innovations, that transformed both the appearance of art and the behavior of artists, made him not only the most important American artist, but the most important Western artist overall of the second half of the twentieth century.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2021-14&r=all
  2. By: Edwyna Harris; Sumner La Croix
    Abstract: From first settlement of South Australia in November 1836, the colony underwent a series of crises due to delays in surveying and distributing lands, producing crops, and employing new migrants. Histories of this period emphasize that a combination of high food prices and high wages burdened the government and new farms. To check and refine standard explanations for early colonization crises, we employ a number of sources, including South Australian newspapers and colonial government blue books, to develop monthly series for prices, wages, and the cost of “respectable” and “bare bones” consumption baskets over the 1838-1850 period. We use Corden’s model of a booming economy with traded and non-traded goods to understand how various shocks, including the 1840 stop in immigration and the 1844/1845 copper discoveries, could have affected the SA economy. We find that the model’s implications are consistent with changes in our newly developed SA data series.
    Keywords: Adelaide; colonization; welfare ratio; standard of living; South Australia; relief; Wakefield; migrants
    JEL: N47 N57 N97 R30 D44
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2019-07&r=all
  3. By: Faustine Perrin
    Abstract: Why did France experience the demographic transition first? This question remains one of the greatest puzzles of economics, demography, and economic history. The French pattern is hard to reconcile with elucidations of the process as found in other countries. The present analysis goes back to the roots of the process and offers novel ways of explaining why people started to control their fertility in France and how they did so. In this paper, I track the evolution of marriage patterns to a point before the premises of the demographic transition. I identify two distinct phases. Next, I rely on exploratory methods to classify French counties based on their discriminatory features. Five profiles emerge. I discuss these profiles through the lens of the French Revolution, one of the greatest events that ever occurred in French history, which irretrievably altered its society. In particular, the results show that the fertility transition was not as linear, but more complex than previous research had argued. They show the importance of accounting for cultural factors and for individuals’ predispositions to adapt more or less quickly to societal changes. Yet cultural factors are not all. They can help to explain the timing of the transition and the choice of methods used to control fertility, but modernity and gender equality are also needed to describe the mechanisms in play behind the process.
    Keywords: Demographic Transition, European Marriage Pattern, French Revolution, Gender Equality, Women Empowerment.
    JEL: J12 J13 J16 N33 O15 O18 Z12
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2021-02&r=all
  4. By: Gordon, Anna
    Abstract: The quest of human for better production and management methods to generate or to raise income is as ancient as time. Adam Smith (1723 – 1790), David Ricardo (1772 – 1823), and Jeremy Bentham (1748 – 1832) are considered to be the pioneers of modern management theories. The conventional management theories originated in the industrial revolution when technical advances, the expansion of commerce and markets, increasing populations generate mass production opportunities by means of a motorized and systemic method. First, this research reviews three most crucial early works: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” (1776) by Adam Smith (1723 – 1790), “Letter to T. R. Malthus, October 9, 1820” by David Ricardo (1772 – 1823), and “Introduction to the Principles of Morals” (1789) by Jeremy Bentham (1748 – 1832). Second, we compare those early works with modern theories and practices of HRM. We argued that the early theories were built upon materialistic consideration; while, the modern theories are established on both materialistic and humanitarian grounds. The trends in HRM literature showed that we might witness, in coming decades, a surge of theories built on humanitarian principles.
    Date: 2021–03–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:96nj8&r=all
  5. By: Luciano Segreto
    Abstract: In this article we will analyse the debate that took place around the assessments that the CIA gave of the economic situation in the Soviet Union, an evidently decisive key to understanding the overall health of the main political-military opponent of the United States. The article will be including the discussions that flared up in the American political establishment starting in 1990, after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the initial disorientation due to the loss of the historical adversary of the Cold War. Moreover, the positions taken by the Sovietologists in these discussions will be evaluated, as well as the role-played in these debates by the analysis developed in the 1980s by Soviet economists. We will be finally considering the official response given the CIA, actually rather late, since it arrived only in 2001. This was essentially aimed at confirming the correctness of its analyses and reiterating that its duties did not include that of predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    JEL: N14 N44 P24
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2020_22.rdf&r=all
  6. By: Kolev, Stefan
    Abstract: This paper contextualizes the early political economy of Austrian economist and social philosopher F. A. Hayek in the intellectual milieu of German ordoliberalism. It argues that the particular urgency during the 1930s and 1940s to preserve and stabilize the disintegrating orders of economy and society was a crucial driver behind the numerous parallelisms between Hayek and the ordoliberals. Their political economies are reconstructed by emphasizing the notion of the framework as an economic constitution of general and stable rules, with the overarching goal to render the orders in the postwar world more robust. In a nutshell, the central configuration is that liberty can thrive sustainably only after such a framework has been established. Hayek's "learning ordoliberalism" emerged during the socialist calculation debates when knowledge became the center of his oeuvre, so that he aimed at identifying rules which could enhance the use of knowledge in society and thus societal learning. Hayek's search was similar to that of the ordoliberals in substance and in rhetoric, and culminated in the competitive order as the chiffre for a well-ordered market economy. These parallelisms surfaced during the 1930s and became most explicit in The Road to Serfdom and at the founding meeting of the Mont Pèlerin Society in 1947. In the years after The Constitution of Liberty, a shift of Hayek's focus is identified: from a theory of designing frameworks at a point of time towards a theory of their evolution across time. Overall, Hayek of the 1930s and 1940s is interpreted as a continental liberal thinking in interdependent societal orders, while the ordoliberals are depicted as a constitutive building block of the international neoliberal archipelago.
    Keywords: neoliberalism,ordoliberalism,Freiburg School,F. A. Hayek,Walter Eucken,Wilhelm Röpke
    JEL: A11 B25 B31 B41 H11 P16
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:2102&r=all
  7. By: Virginie Gouverneur
    Abstract: Standing out from most nineteenth-century economists, Marshall addresses the role of women and the family in the progress of society entirely from the perspective of economics. His ideas on the subject developed throughout the course of his career as an economist. In the early 1870s they appear in the background of his analysis concerning ways to increase laborers’ welfare. At the end of the 1870s, he presents the influences of the home, and especially the influence of the mother, as decisive causes of the individuals’ efficiency and character. These developments form the ground upon which Marshall’s ideas will later be systematized, leading to their inclusion in Principles in the form of a complete theory situated at the heart of his analysis of well-being and progress. The purpose of the article is to compare Marshall’s treatment of the question of the role of women and the family in the progress of society with his analysis of well-being and progress, as well as their respective evolution, for the period between the1870s and the last edition of Principles in 1920.
    Keywords: Alfred Marshall, progress, well-being, economic woman, household economics.
    JEL: B10 B13 I31 B15 A12 I25
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2021-03&r=all
  8. By: Luna Bellani; Anselm Hager; Stephan Maurer
    Abstract: The politics and economy of the antebellum American South were dominated by those who practiced forced enslavement. Research by Luna Bellani, Anselm Hager and Stephan Maurer, which examines a database of Texas legislators from 1860 to 1900, reveals that the power of slave-owners continued long after the Civil War.
    Keywords: wealth inequality, elites and development, us south, intergenerational persistence, slavery
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:600&r=all
  9. By: Sandra García-Uribe (Banco de España); Hannes Mueller (IAE (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE); Carlos Sanz (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain in 1905-1945, a period of extreme political polarization. We find that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertainty in both newspapers. We study the dynamics behind this shift and provide evidence of a strong empirical link between increasing uncertainty and the rise of divisive political issues at the time: socio-economic conflict, regional separatism, power of the military, and role of the church. This holds even when we exploit variation in content at the newspaper level.
    Keywords: economic policy uncertainty, civil war, social conflict, agrarian reform, natural language processing, tf-idf
    JEL: D72 D74 N14 N24 N44
    Date: 2021–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2102&r=all
  10. By: Boianovsky, Mauro
    Abstract: Book Review of “Ideas in the History of Economic Development – The Case of Peripheral Countries” edited by Estrella Trincado, Andrés Lazzarini, and Denis Melnik
    Date: 2021–02–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:re5b4&r=all
  11. By: Julien Levesque
    Abstract: From colonial census administrators to social scientists, scholars have debated whether Muslims in the subcontinent can be said to have castes. In recent decades, the discussion also entered the political arena over the issue of reservations in India. In order to offer an overview of the debates concerning caste among Muslims, mainly in North India and Pakistan, this article first shows that colonial scholars and administrators tended to understand the phenomenon as the product of a history of conquest and miscegenation. I then turn to socio-anthropological debates of the second half of the twentieth century that opposed scholars on whether a caste system existed among Muslims. Finally, I explore how new legal conceptions of caste among Indian Muslims became a stepping stone for political mobilization from the 1990s.
    Keywords: caste, social stratification,Islam,South Asia, India, Pakistan
    JEL: R50
    Date: 2020–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aed:wpaper:0015&r=all
  12. By: Heinrich Ursprung
    Abstract: Rare books of political economy are eminently collectable. Using historical prices, I employ hedonic regressions to estimate financial returns to collecting the works of ten eminent political economists and develop a price index for this corpus of collectables. For the observation period 1975-2019, I find that in those 45 years investing in rare political economy books yielded an average annual real rate of return of 2.8%, which is well in line with the returns to collecting rare books of classical literature. Compared with other collectibles such as fine art, investing in rare books turns out to be financially more profitable.
    Keywords: rare books, political economy, price indices, collectibles, cultural economics, history of economic thought
    JEL: G11 Z11
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8910&r=all
  13. By: Bertrand Garbinti; Frédérique Savignac
    Abstract: We estimate the intergenerational correlation in homeownership status between two generations for cohorts covering the 20th century. First, we find higher intergenerational correlation in France compared to previous results obtained for the U.K. for similar cohorts. Second, the intergenerational correlation is increasing across cohorts, with a relatively stable probability of being a homeowner for children of homeowners over time, and a decreasing probability for children whose parents were not homeowners. Third, the effect of parents’ tenure status is persistent over the children’s life cycle. Fourth, when isolating two subpopulations based on the receipt of intergenerational transfers, we find significant intergenerational correlation in tenure status for children who did not receive any gift or inheritance, as well as for children who received intergenerational transfers, suggesting that other factors such as intergenerational income correlation or the transmission of preferences might also explain this intergenerational correlation.
    Keywords: Housing, Intergenerational Wealth Mobility, Cohorts
    JEL: G51 J62 R21
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:808&r=all
  14. By: Argyris Sakalis (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK)
    Abstract: Contemporary beliefs about gender equality differ across countries. Beliefs towards gender equality focus on the position and role of women in society, which include beliefs for women’s participation in the labor market, higher education, and politics. I explore how historical differences in land ownership affected gender equality beliefs. Historical land inequality has a negative effect on beliefs about gender equality. I also trace historical land inequality on the beliefs of second generation immigrants. The mother’s country of origin appears to drive the effect. This finding is consistent with similar findings from cultural transmission literature.
    Keywords: Culture; Beliefs; Land Inequality; Gender Equality; Immigrants
    JEL: Q15 Z10 J16
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2021001&r=all
  15. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Sadullah Yıldırım (Marmara University)
    Abstract: We use GIS data and information from the tax registers of the Ottoman Empire to study the economic geography of Ottoman Anatolia in the sixteenth century, soon after the vast expansion of the empire in Asian territories. For a consistent and systematic account of resources and activities, we use data from the official accounting registers (muhasebe defteri) of the empire recorded around the year 1530, available at the district (kaza) level from the State Archives in Turkey. The accounting registers include detailed information regarding the amounts and essential features of the inhabitants and resources of the empire, especially in relation to the fiscal and administrative capacity of the state. Since the data are given at the level of the district, we use the name of the district to georeference its location, calculate district-level values of several representative indicators, and use GIS software to display the geographic dispersion of these indicators on maps. Regarding people, we determine the total number of taxpaying inhabitants in a district and the fractions of inhabitants who were non-Muslims and those exempt from taxation. In the same vein, we use the information regarding productive resources to calculate the numbers of mills, caravanserais, and markets in each district. Finally, as an indicator of political economy constraints that the Ottomans faced in newly conquered territories, we provide information regarding the spatial implementation of the malikane-divani system, an unusual method of dividing tax revenues between the state and local private recipients (mülk, vakıf).
    JEL: N15 N35 N45 N75 N95
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2021-03&r=all
  16. By: Gram, Dennis; Karapanagiotis, Pantelis; Krzyzanowski, Jan; Liebald, Marius; Walz, Uwe
    Abstract: Broad, long-term financial and economic datasets are a scarce resource, in particular in the European context. In this paper, we present an approach for an extensible, i.e. adaptable to future changes in technologies and sources, data model that may constitute a basis for digitized and structured longterm, historical datasets. The data model covers specific peculiarities of historical financial and economic data and is flexible enough to reach out for data of different types (quantitative as well as qualitative) from different historical sources, hence achieving extensibility. Furthermore, based on historical German company and stock market data, we discuss a relational implementation of this approach.
    JEL: C81 C82
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:300&r=all
  17. By: Alacevich, Michele
    Abstract: Book Review of “Economists at War. How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars” by Alan Bollard
    Date: 2021–02–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pr9t3&r=all
  18. By: Richard Layard
    Abstract: In CEP's first anniversary lecture marking 30 years since the Centre began, founder director Richard Layard outlined the science of wellbeing and its implications for public policy. As society tries to recover from the coronavirus crisis, he concludes that in seeking to 'build back better', our fundamental aim should be to 'build back happier'.
    Keywords: wellbeing, public policy, Covid-19
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:595&r=all
  19. By: Sergi, Francesco
    Abstract: Book Review of “Expectations. Theory and Application from Historical Perspective” edited by Arie Arnon, Warren Young and Karine van der Beek
    Date: 2021–02–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:42avd&r=all
  20. By: Takahide Aoyagi; Tadashi Ito; Toshiyuki Matsuura
    Abstract: Welfare gains achieved through international trade are a cornerstone of the literature on international economics. However, the data and research methods needed to empirically assess these welfare gains have only recently become available. Building on recently developed methodologies for estimating the elasticity of substitution and computing welfare gains from trade, we estimate Japan's welfare gains from liberalizing trade in the manufacturing sector. To do so, we estimate the elasticities of substitution using Harmonized System (HS) 9-digit product codes, for various periods of time. The analysis shows that Japan's welfare gains from trade liberalization occurred especially from the 1990s onward, and reached eleven percent vis-a-vis the autarky situation.
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e158&r=all
  21. By: Sascha O. Becker; Erik Hornung
    Abstract: Did the Prussian three-class franchise, which politically over-represented the economic elite, affect policy-making? Combining MP-level political orientation, derived from all roll call votes in the Prussian parliament (1867–1903), with constituency characteristics, we analyze how local vote inequality, determined by tax payments, affected policy-making during Prussia’s period of rapid industrialization. Contrary to the predomi-nant view that the franchise system produced a conservative parliament, higher vote inequality is associated with more liberal voting, especially in regions with large-scale industry. We argue that industrialists preferred self-serving liberal policies and were able to coordinate on suitable MPs when vote inequality was high.
    Keywords: INEQUALITY, POLITICAL ECONOMY, THREE-CLASS FRANCHISE, ELITES,PRUSSIA
    JEL: D72 N43 N93 P26
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2019-09&r=all
  22. By: Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University, University of Sydney and Bank of Finland); Stefano Manfredonia (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether managers' personal connections help corporations to escape the productivity trap. Leveraging the heterogeneity in the severity of the Great Recession across different sectors, the paper reports that (i) the Great Recession had a negative effect on corporate productivity, (ii) the effect was long-lasting and persistent, supporting a productivity-hysteresis hypothesis, (iii) managers' personal connections are counter-cyclical and indeed allowed corporations to escape the productivity trap primarily via favorable credit conditions, in periods of high information asymmetries and tight credit constraints.
    Keywords: Social networks, Great Recession, Productivity.
    JEL: D85 G30 D24
    Date: 2021–03–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:507&r=all
  23. By: Olivier Accominotti (LSE); Delio Lucena-Piquero (LEREPS); Stefano Ugolini (LEREPS)
    Abstract: This paper presents a detailed analysis of how liquid money market instruments -- sterling bills of exchange -- were produced during the first globalisation. We rely on a unique data set that reports systematic information on all 23,493 bills re-discounted by the Bank of England in the year 1906. Using descriptive statistics and network analysis, we reconstruct the complete network of linkages between agents involved in the origination and distribution of these bills. Our analysis reveals the truly global dimension of the London bill market before the First World War and underscores the crucial role played by London intermediaries (acceptors and discounters) in overcoming information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders on this market. The complex industrial organisation of the London money market ensured that risky private debts could be transformed into extremely liquid and safe monetary instruments traded throughout the global financial system.
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.01558&r=all
  24. By: Skjönsberg, Max
    Abstract: Book Review of “A Philosopher’s Economist: Hume and the Rise of Capitalism” by Margaret Schabas and Carl Wennerlind
    Date: 2021–02–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u4rq6&r=all
  25. By: Seiji Horii (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Date: 2021–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2107&r=all
  26. By: Jacky Lin; Genevieve C. Selden; John B. Shoven; Clemens Sialm
    Abstract: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has historically been the most quoted stock index in the United States. It has several unique features. It uses price weights, it ignores cash dividend payments, and it also treats stock dividends, rights issues, and other corporate actions inconsistently. We show that price indices which use alternative weighting methods and more systematic inclusion criteria perform similarly to the Dow. However, ignoring cash and stock dividends underestimates the long-run returns earned by stock market investors dramatically. If the DJIA had consistently adjusted for dividends and other corporate actions since 1928, the index would have closed at 1,113,047 instead of 28,538 points at the end of 2019.
    JEL: G10
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28528&r=all
  27. By: Benjamin Friedrich; Lisa Laun; Costas Meghir
    Abstract: This paper analyzes earnings inequality and earnings dynamics in Sweden over 1985–2016. The deep recession in the early 1990s marks a historic turning point with a massive increase in earnings inequality and earnings volatility, and the impact of the recession and the recovery from it lasted for decades. In the aftermath of the recession, we find steady growth in real earnings across the entire distribution for men and women and decreasing inequality over more than 20 years. Earnings dynamics differ substantially by gender, education, and origin. Men face lower volatility than women, but their earnings growth is more closely tied to the business cycle. Earnings volatility is also higher among high-educated and foreign-born workers. We document an important role of social benefits usage for the overall trends and for differences across sub-populations. Higher benefits enrollment, especially for women and immigrants, is associated with higher earnings volatility. As the generosity and usage of benefit programs declined over time, we find stronger earnings growth among low-income workers, consistent with higher self-sufficiency.
    JEL: E24 E25 J24 J3
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28527&r=all
  28. By: Mary C. Daly
    Date: 2021–03–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfsp:90082&r=all
  29. By: Akasaka, Shintaro
    Abstract: This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐World War II global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐World War II migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, substitution effects can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
    Keywords: migration, trends, determinants, policy, visa, refugee
    JEL: J0 J01 J08 J6 J61
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106358&r=all
  30. By: Alger, Ingela; Laslier, Jean-François
    Abstract: Why do voters incur costs to participate in large elections? This paper proposes an exploratory analysis of the implications of evolutionary Kantian morality for this classical problem in the economic theory of voting: the costly participation problem.
    Keywords: voter turnout; voting, ethical voter; homo moralis; Kantian morality
    Date: 2021–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125344&r=all
  31. By: Villalobos Lopez, Jose Antonio
    Abstract: In 1973, the income of working workers financed the pensions of retired workers, over the years the ratio of assets and pensioners changed, financing a smaller portion of Mexico's total pensions. In 1973 the relationship of active right holders for each pensioner was 14 to 1, while that relationship in 2019 is 5 to 1. The Retirement Savings System (SAR) had weights of 3.8 trillion pesos through 2019, which account for 16.1% of national GDP. Compared to eight Latin American countries in individual capitalization per capita funds for 2017, Chile accumulates more than $18,000 for each worker, Uruguay follows with just over $11,000 per quote, and Mexico has only $3,000 for each insured. With the December 2020 reforms, this situation is expected to improve.
    Keywords: Law 97 IMSS, Individual Capitalization, Pensions, IMSS Pensions, LSS 1997
    JEL: H55
    Date: 2021–03–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106403&r=all
  32. By: Kiki Verico (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: This paper is the second part of the first paper published by the LPEM UI on January 18th 2021 (Verico, 2021a). This first part discussed Indonesia’s output gap, the global pandemic’s impact, and the scenario to avoid the middle-income trap by 2040. In this second part, the paper figures out the manufacturing sector performance from 1968 until 2019, before the global pandemic hit Indonesia’s economy. Indonesia’s economy needs an adjustment that depends on the pandemic containment to achieve even higher economic growth to compensate for economic contraction during the pandemic. This paper finds that Indonesia’s manufacture can boost economic growth, decrease open unemployment and improve productivity. This paper argues that Indonesia can achieve the second wave of the Chenery-Syrquin phenomenon of economic transformation from service to manufacturing through two scenarios: one, medium to long-run over the enhancement of the backward linkage of global value chains (GVCs), and two, natural short-run with the role of information and communication technology (ICT).
    Keywords: economic growth — manufacturing — industrial structure — economic transformation — Information Communication Technology
    JEL: D83 F43 L60 N10 O14
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202158&r=all

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