nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒02‒08
forty-five papers chosen by

  1. European goods market integration in the very long run: from the Black Death to the First World War By Federico, Giovanni; Schulze, Max Stephan; Volckart, Oliver
  2. La Caja Nacional de Ahorros y las cajas financieras estatales en Chile, c. 1920-1950 By González-Correa, Ignacio
  3. The Cornerstone Imprint of Kandinsky in the History of Abstract Art By Samah Nassar
  4. Globalization and Muslims By Hasan, Zubair
  5. Long-Term Effects of Equal Sharing: Evidence from Inheritance Rules for Land By Charlotte Bartels; Simon Jäger; Natalie Obergruber
  6. Unskilled labour before the Industrial Revolution By Paker, Meredith; Stephenson, Judy; Wallis, Patrick
  7. Urbanisation and the onset of modern economic growth By Liam Brunt; Cecilia García-Peñalosa
  8. Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle By Eric Monnet; Damien Puy
  9. World War I and the Restructuring of International Business By Ted Fertik; Naomi R. Lamoreaux
  10. A tale of paper and gold: the material history money in South Africa By Feingold, Ellen; Fourie, Johan; Gardner, Leigh
  11. The merit of misfortune: Taiping Rebellion and the rise of indirect taxation in modern China, 1850s-1900s By Deng, Hanzhi
  12. The Myth in de Martino’s Italy By Aurelia Săbiescu
  13. A Safe Harbor: Wealth-Income Ratios in Switzerland over the 20th Century and the Role of Housing Prices By Enea Baselgia; Isabel Z. Martínez
  14. Zoning and Segregation in Urban Economic History By Allison Shertzer; Tate Twinam; Randall P. Walsh
  15. Class, Social Mobility, and Voting: Evidence from Historical Voting Records By Torun Dewan; Christopher Kam; Jaakko Meriläinen; Janne Tukiaianen
  16. Height Growth from Exhaustive Historical Panel Data By Stéphane Gauthier
  17. Early-life Income Shocks and Old-Age Cause-Specific Mortality By Hamid NoghaniBehambari; Farzaneh Noghani; Nahid Tavassoli
  18. Radio Programas de México a 100 años de radio en México By Villalobos López, José Antonio
  19. Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt By Nicolas End; Marina Marinkov; Fedor Miryugin
  20. 60 años de productividad: Enfoques para su estimación en Nicaragua By Angulo, Laura; Godínez, Raúl; López, Axsell
  21. Omitting the Obvious: Cohort Effects in 19th and 20th Century BMI Variation By Scott A. Carson
  22. Pandemic recession, helicopter money and central banking: Venice, 1630 By Goodhart, C. A. E.; Masciandaro, Donato; Ugolini, Stefano
  23. Exchange arrangements entering the twenty-first century: which anchor will hold? By Ilzetzki, Ethan; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
  24. Do Leader’s Visits Increase Trade Flows? By Kodila-Tedika, Oasis; Khalifa, Sherif
  25. Anatomy of history as a launch for the future By Thien, Tran Dinh; Huyen, Nguyen Thanh Thanh; Phuong, Luong Anh
  26. The rise in women's labour force participation in Mexico: Supply vs demand factors By Sonia Bhalotra; Manuel Fernández
  27. The Kuznetsian paradigm for the study of modern economic history and the Great Divergence with appendices of literature review and statistical data By Deng, Kent; O'Brien, Patrick
  28. The European Marriage Pattern and its Positive Consequences Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660-1789 By Le Bris, David; Tallec, Ronan
  29. The Remarkable Growth in Financial Economics, 1974-2020 By G. William Schwert
  30. Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy By Eric Monnet; Miklos Vari
  31. School Closures During the 1918 Flu Pandemic By Philipp Ager; Katherine Eriksson; Ezra Karger; Peter Nencka; Melissa A. Thomasson
  33. Friendship Networks and Political Opinions: A Natural Experiment among Future French Politicians By Algan, Yann; Dalvit, Nicolò; Do, Quoc-Anh; Le Chapelain, Alexis; Zenou, Yves
  34. Monetary transitions in Cabo Verde: from the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal By João Estevao
  35. Desempeño Posgrados en Economía IPN 1983- 2000 By Villalobos Lopez, Jose Antonio
  36. Review of Roger L. Ransom. 2018. Gambling on War: Confidence, Fear and the Tragedy of the First World War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. By Victor Gay
  37. The rural space, its use and reconfiguration: the case of the Najerilla valley (Spain) By María Isabel Martínez Fernández
  38. Away from Home and Back: Coordinating (Remote) Workers in 1800 and 2020 By Réka Juhász; Mara P. Squicciarini; Nico Voigtländer
  39. How the West India trade fostered last resort lending by the Bank of England By Sissoko, Carolyn; Ishizu, Mina
  40. Do Global Pandemics Matter for Stock Prices? Lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu By Marco Del Angel; Caroline Fohlin; Marc D. Weidenmier
  41. Market Formation in China from 1978 By Tang, Rongsheng
  42. Does the Introduction of Stock Exchange Markets BoostEconomic Growth in African Countries? By António Afonso; Max Reimers
  43. Nomadic Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa By Eoin F. McGuirk; Nathan Nunn
  44. State Capacity, Legal Design and the Venality of Judicial Offices By Crettez, Bertrand; Deffains, Bruno; Musy, Olivier; Tallec, Ronan
  45. Aggregate and Disaggregate Natural Resources Agglomeration and Foreign Direct Investment in France By Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad; Roussel, Yannick

  1. By: Federico, Giovanni; Schulze, Max Stephan; Volckart, Oliver
    Abstract: This paper examines price convergence and changes in the efficiency of wheat markets, covering the period from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century and most of Europe. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from almost 600 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth century, advanced rapidly until the beginning of the seventeenth century when it temporarily stalled, resumed after the Thirty Years' War, and accelerated after the Napoleonic Wars in response to trade liberalization. From the late 1840s, convergence petered out and turned into divergence after 1875 as policy decisions dominated technological change. Our results point to the 'Little Divergence' between North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent as starting about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances over time being as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to differential institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news.
    Keywords: 230484
    JEL: N0 F3 G3 L81
    Date: 2021–01–13
  2. By: González-Correa, Ignacio
    Abstract: This work examines the links between the Caja Nacional de Ahorros (National Savings Bank) and other state-owned banks such as the Caja de Crédito Hipotecario (National Mortgage Bank) and the Caja de Crédito Agrario (Agricultural Credit Bank) between the end of the nineteenth-century and the first half of the twentieth-century. The permanent financial links, the operative cooperation and the shared Board of Directors among the "cajas" explain the success and permanence in the market of the three state-owned firms. In addition, this work shows the relevance of the Caja Nacional de Ahorros in the Chilean savings market: in 1922 more than 50 percent of the people in Santiago and more than 25 percent of the country's population had a savings account of the National Savings Bank, that is, practically all the families in the country had a savings account in this institution. The wide presence of offices of the Caja Nacional de Ahorros in cities and towns where no private bank had branches and its system of field visits allowed it to capture many customers, especially the working class, who were willing to save in the formal financial system. Finally, the history of close relationships among these companies is one of the main factors that explain why these institutions were merged in 1953 to form the Banco del Estado de Chile.
    Keywords: Savings banks, state-owned banks, Caja Nacional de Ahorros, Chile
    JEL: G18 G21 N16
    Date: 2020–11
  3. By: Samah Nassar (October University for Modern Sciences and Arts (MSA), Cairo, Egypt)
    Abstract: With all forms of art being continually subjective in the process by which they are perceived and appreciated, abstract art has been no exception, facing both elicited support and criticism over the years. The greatest debate on abstract art was experienced over a century ago when the art first emerged, that is in its initial stages of development. A century ago, abstract art signified a new perception of art that was conceived and accepted only by a few people. However, the art later transformed to be accepted by many as one of the purest and most beautiful forms of art, a change that was brought about through the works and ideas presented by Wassily Kandinsky. Kandinsky had, through his artistic vision and modes of expression, led to a critical revolution in the way abstract art was visualized and conceived. Therefore, he had not only helped lay the robust foundation that governed many of the concepts in abstract art, in contemporary and modern times, but he had also helped revolutionize its framework enriching it with the elements it still carries to the modern day.
    Keywords: Abstract art, Kandinsky, Avant-garde, Contemporary art
    Date: 2020–12
  4. By: Hasan, Zubair
    Abstract: This essay discusses the content and evolution of globalization as the blueprint for economic development to shape a new world order, and examine the consequences of that order for Muslim countries. Globalization is, in fact, the revitalization of the age long gospel of lasses faire or freedom of trade that helped the Europeans to colonize the vast tracts of land in other continents to capture their resources and markets. To continue dominating the freed developing economies for that very reason, designed is now a instrument called ‘globalization.’ The ideology, led by the US, stands on three pillars –privatization, internationalization and free movement of goods and capital across the borders. However, there has been a history of resistance to free trade movement the French had launched to counter mercantilist restrictions on trade hurting them. Free trade would benefit all, they contended. Fredrik List, a German economist, countered the contention as found it hurtful to his country. Economically weak must be protected against the powerful until developed. Protection emerged as a counter plea to freedom of trade. It was not the idea of globalization that hurt the Muslim countries so much as its aggressive thrusting on the weak. This essay discusses the content and evolution of globalization as the blueprint for economic development to shape a new world order, and examine the consequences of that order for Muslim countries. Globalization is, in fact, the revitalization of the age long gospel of lasses faire or freedom of trade that helped the Europeans to colonize the vast tracts of land in other continents to capture their resources and markets. To continue dominating the freed developing economies for that very reason, designed is now a instrument called ‘globalization.’ The ideology, led by the US, stands on three pillars –privatization, internationalization and free movement of goods and capital across the borders. However, there has been a history of resistance to free trade movement the French had launched to counter mercantilist restrictions on trade hurting them. Free trade would benefit all, they contended. Fredrik List, a German economist, countered the contention as found it hurtful to his country. Economically weak must be protected against the powerful until developed. Protection emerged as a counter plea to freedom of trade. It was not the idea of globalization that hurt the Muslim countries so much as its aggressive thrusting on the weak.
    Keywords: Globalization; Free trade; Protection; Muslim countries
    JEL: Z1
    Date: 2020–09
  5. By: Charlotte Bartels; Simon Jäger; Natalie Obergruber
    Abstract: What are the long-term economic effects of a more equal distribution of wealth? We exploit variation in historical inheritance rules for land traversing political, linguistic, geological, and religious borders in Germany. In some German areas, inherited land was to be shared or divided equally among children, while in others land was ruled to be indivisible. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design, we show that equal division of land led to a more equal distribution of land; other potential drivers of growth are smooth at the boundary and equal division areas were not historically more developed. Today, equal division areas feature higher average incomes and a right-shifted skill, income, and wealth distribution. Higher top incomes and top wealth in equal division areas coincide with higher education, and higher labor productivity. We show evidence consistent with the more even distribution of land leading to more innovative industrial by-employment during Germany’s transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy and, in the long-run, more entrepreneurship.
    JEL: E02 H24 J24 J43 N13 N14 N23 N24 N33 N34 N53 N54 N93 N94 O3 P42 R52
    Date: 2020–12
  6. By: Paker, Meredith; Stephenson, Judy; Wallis, Patrick
    Abstract: The Industrial Revolution is seen as a major turning point in the management of labour, bringing about employment practices that gave structure and stability to the workforce. This paper provides evidence that employers were using hiring and retention strategies to stabilize the unskilled workforce at least a century before industrialization. We exploit the comprehensive employment records that survive from the rebuilding of St. Paul’s Cathedral in London (1672–1748) to reconstruct and analyse the employment history of over one thousand general building labourers, the benchmark category of unskilled workers for economic historians. We show that St. Paul’s was able to stabilize its workforce by establishing a core group of long-standing workers. Tenure was incentivized with more days of work each month on the site, priority in the queue for retention and rehiring in periods of low labour demand, and the opportunity to earn additional income as watchmen. These strategies reduced turnover and may have allowed the Cathedral to retain the most productive workers, reshaping our understanding of when modern employment practices emerged.
    Keywords: labour markets; construction; unskilled labour; churn; job creation; tenure; early modern; construction workers
    JEL: N33 N63 N83 J21 J22 J23
    Date: 2021–01
  7. By: Liam Brunt (Norwegian School of Economics and CEPR); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EHESS, AMSE and CEPR)
    Abstract: A large literature characterizes urbanisation as the result of productivity growth attracting rural workers to cities. We incorporate economic geography elements into a growth model and suggest that causation runs the other way: when rural workers move to cities, the resulting urbanisation produces technological change and productivity growth. Urban density leads to knowledge exchange and innovation, thus creating a positive feedback loop between city size and productivity that sets off sustained economic growth. The model is consistent with the fact that urbanisation rates in Western Europe, and notably in England, reached unprecedented levels by the mid-18 th century, the eve of the Industrial Revolution.
    Keywords: industrialization, urbanisation, innovation, long-run growth
    JEL: N13 O14 O41
    Date: 2021–01
  8. By: Eric Monnet; Damien Puy
    Abstract: Why did monetary authorities hold large gold reserves under Bretton Woods (1944–1971) when only the US had to? We argue that gold holdings were driven by institutional memory and persistent habits of central bankers. Countries continued to back currency in circulation with gold reserves, following rules of the pre-WWII gold standard. The longer an institution spent in the gold standard (and the older the policymakers), the stronger the correlation between gold reserves and currency. Since dollars and gold were not perfect substitutes, the Bretton Woods system never worked as expected. Even after radical institutional change, history still shapes the decisions of policymakers.
    Keywords: Gold;Gold reserves;International reserves;Currencies;Banking;WP,Bretton Woods system,gold standard exposure,unit of currency,exchange rate,gold standard practice
    Date: 2019–07–24
  9. By: Ted Fertik; Naomi R. Lamoreaux
    Abstract: This paper considers the effect of the First World War on large-scale businesses in Second-Industrial-Revolution industries like steel, electricity, and chemicals. For firms in the nations of the Entente, we argue, the war mainly interrupted long-term trends that resumed in the aftermath of the conflict. For Germany, however, the war and its subsequent territorial settlements had a disruptive impact on the economic geography of key industries. The global restructuring that resulted from the collapse of the Habsburg, Romanov, and Ottoman empires and Germany’s loss of its colonial possessions set up a new kind of international rivalry as German firms sought to regain their dominance by contracting with emerging nations in the European periphery and the Global South to build industrial capacity, forcing Britain and the now capital-rich United States to compete for this business or see their influence in these areas decline. The end result of this rivalry was the construction of massive steel works in Brazil and other industrializing countries around the world. These investments would provide the foundation for the import-substituting policies of the post-World War II era.
    JEL: N10 N40 N60 O14
    Date: 2020–12
  10. By: Feingold, Ellen; Fourie, Johan; Gardner, Leigh
    Abstract: This paper uses the South African objects in the National Numismatic Collection of the Smithsonian to tell a new material history of money in South Africa. In other parts of the continent, research about the currencies in use and how these changed over time have offered a new perspective on the impact of colonialism, commercialisation, and the rise of state capacity. South Africa, and southern Africa more generally, has remained on the periphery of these debates. This paper begins to fill this gap. It shows that even in Africa’s most financially developed region, the process of establishing a stable national currency was long and halting, reflecting struggles over South Africa’s relationship with the global economy and the rise and fall of apartheid.
    Keywords: South Africa; currency; colonialism; mineral; REF Impact Fund
    JEL: N47 N17
    Date: 2021–01
  11. By: Deng, Hanzhi
    Abstract: This article revisits the role of war in state development but goes beyond the scope of Western European nation states. It focuses on the relationship between political disorder and indirect taxation with micro-level evidence in late imperial China. With cross-sectional data for 266 prefectures this article employs quantitative methods to test the positive link between the warfare during the Taiping Rebellion (the greatest threat for the Qing reign) and the rapid rise and pervasive persistence of autonomous self-serving indirect taxation (lijin) institutions. The withering central fiscal role with the growing local fiscal-military needs accounted for this change. This article draws more economic and political implications by linking local fiscal autonomy to the Late Qing industrialization and the development of representative politics. The results demonstrate that the warfare by the Taiping Rebellion provided an unexpected opportunity for China’s fiscal modernization in a bottom-up way and that the impact was long-lasting
    Keywords: political disorder; fiscal capacity; modern China; Taiping Rebellion; indirect taxation
    JEL: H25 N45 O14
    Date: 2021–01
  12. By: Aurelia Săbiescu (University of Craiova, Craiova, Romania)
    Abstract: Being a preoccupied researcher of the myth and contrasting the theories of Mircea Eliade, Ernesto de Martino elaborated an authentic teaching of the existential crisis by theorizing about the myth. Likewise, he has found solutions to the aforementioned matter, mainly by his own disappearance down in history: the cataclysm of non-presence. Without pretending to be a mythologist, de Martino studies the myth pertaining to the lower classes of Italian culture, respectively those of southern Italy. The matter of myth study concerns de Martino, resulting in him making up his own theories that contrast those of Eliade or even Croce. Preceding him, Giusepe Pitre had made himself known as an illustrious ethnologist due to his remarkable contributions. De Martino and Eliade’s previously established relationships is an intellectual one based upon the discrepancies between their individual theories. Therefore, since de Martino mainly contradicts Eliade’s hypotheses and demonstrations, the two theoreticians are mostly treated as oppositors. In de Martino’s works it is to be noticed a clear evolution of concepts, as he initially dismantled various theories belonging to the myth, theories that he later reinterpreted. Thus, while dealing with myths that are part of the Italian cultural heritage and national identity, de Martino discovers the sacred, but also the persistence of the European ancient culture.
    Keywords: myth, culture, tradition, identity, the sacred
    Date: 2020–11
  13. By: Enea Baselgia (University of St.Gallen, Switzerland); Isabel Z. Martínez (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: We estimate the ratio of private wealth to national income, βpt, for Switzerland over the period 1900–2018. Our results indicate that the development of βpt in Switzerland did not follow a U-shaped pattern as in most European countries, but that the evolution was extraordinarily stable, with βpt oscillating around 500% over most of the 20th century. However, the wealth-income ratio has been on the rise since the turn of the century to reach 721% in 2017 – an unprecedented level in the past. This considerable increase is mainly driven by large capital gains in housing wealth since 2010. We present new cross-country evidence that capital gains in housing wealth have become an important driver of rising wealth-income ratios in a series of developed economies.
    Keywords: wealth-income ratio; income distribution; economic growth; housing prices
    JEL: N34 D31 D33 E01
    Date: 2020–12
  14. By: Allison Shertzer; Tate Twinam; Randall P. Walsh
    Abstract: Recent work has argued that zoning is responsible for racial segregation, disparities in public goods provision, growing regional inequality, and exploding housing costs in productive areas. However, the slow-moving nature of land regulation’s effects suggests a crucial need for historical perspective to understand how zoning has shaped cities over the long term. This essay places the introduction of zoning in the broader context of urban development in the early twentieth century, with a focus on how the demand for separation of racial groups influenced some of the earliest zoning ordinances in American cities. We also discuss the long-run impact of zoning on the development of cities and highlight the key gaps in our understanding of the role of urban and suburban zoning in fostering segregation within cities and across metropolitan areas. A key lesson from our work in this area is that racial dimensions are important when studying land use regulations, even when the policies in question are ostensibly race neutral.
    JEL: J15 N42 R52
    Date: 2021–01
  15. By: Torun Dewan (Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom.); Christopher Kam (Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver Campus C425 1866 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC Canada V6T 1Z1); Jaakko Meriläinen (Centro de Investigación Económica and Department of Economics, ITAM, Av. Camino Santa Teresa 930, Col. Héroes de Padierna, Del. Magdalena Contreras, 10700 Ciudad de México, Mexico); Janne Tukiaianen (Department of Economics, Turku School of Economics, Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FI-20014 University of Turku, Finland; VATT Institute for Economic Research, Arkadiankatu 7, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland)
    Abstract: We explore the connection between social class, social mobility, and voting behavior in nineteenth-century England. To avoid pitfalls associated with survey or aggregate data on voting behavior, we use administrative longitudinal records preceding secret ballot on voters’ choices and occupation. These data reveal that the landed gentry, farm workers, non-skilled workers and white-collar workers voted, on average, more for the Conservatives, and petty bourgeoisie and skilled workers for the Liberals. The changes in voting behavior within individuals due to social mobility are immediate and mainly consistent with the same cleavage. Our interpretation is that voting was influenced by economic incentives.
    Keywords: Class-based voting, economic voting, social mobility, voting behavior, poll books
    JEL: D72 N33 N93
    Date: 2021–01
  16. By: Stéphane Gauthier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This article shows that two widely used data sources from the French military administration pertain to two different enlistment stages and combines these sources to build a quasi-exhaustive panel of young men around their 20s. The panel is applied to measure height growth of men born at the end of the 19th century in an economically backward small rural area of France. The one-year growth is 0:39cm and only concerns the shortest men; the tallest men already reached adult maturity. Industrial pollution imposes a growth penalty that overcomes the enhancing impact of industrial development.
    Keywords: Industrialization,Norm of reaction,Military data,Rural development,Height growth,Pollution
    Date: 2021–01
  17. By: Hamid NoghaniBehambari; Farzaneh Noghani; Nahid Tavassoli
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal relationship between income shocks during the first years of life and adulthood mortality due to specific causes of death. Using all death records in the United States during 1968-2004 for individuals who were born in the first half of the 20th century, we document a sizable and statistically significant association between income shocks early in life, proxied by GDP per capita fluctuations, and old age cause-specific mortality. Conditional on individual characteristics and controlling for a broad array of current and early-life conditions, we find that a 1 percent decrease in the aggregate business cycle in the year of birth is associated with 2.2, 2.3, 3.1, 3.7, 0.9, and 2.1 percent increase in the likelihood of mortality in old ages due to malignant neoplasms, Diabetes Mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, Influenza, chronic respiratory diseases, and all other diseases, respectively.
    Date: 2021–01
  18. By: Villalobos López, José Antonio
    Abstract: Radio is the mass medium that allowed for closer communication and mass persuasion. In September of this year will commemorate the centenary of radio in Mexico, stand out as precursors Constantino de Tárvara and brothers Enrique and Pedro Gómez Fernández. The second stage of radio comes with the birth of the XEW in 1930, a precursor company of commercial radio in our country. The third stage of radio comes with the birth in 1941 of Radio Programas de México, in which Emilio Azcárraga and Clemente Serna are partners, making their way for the country's major national radio networks. The fourth stage of radio was marked in 1974 when RPM created Radio Red and with this was born the news Mon-itor, which drives for more than 30 years José Gutiérrez Vivó, counting in the Presidency of RPM with Clemente Serna Alvear
    Keywords: Radio, Radio in Mexico, Radio News
    JEL: L82 L96
    Date: 2021–01–18
  19. By: Nicolas End; Marina Marinkov; Fedor Miryugin
    Abstract: We construct a new, comprehensive instrument-level database of sovereign debt for 18 advanced and emerging countries over the period 1913–46. The database contains data on amounts outstanding for some 3,800 individual debt instruments as well as associated qualitative information, including instrument type, coupon rate, maturity, and currency of issue. This information can provide unique insights into various policies implemented in the interwar period, which was characterized by notoriously high debt levels. We document how interwar governments rolled over debts that were largely unsustainable and how the external public debt network contributed to the collapse of the international financial system in the early 1930s.
    Keywords: Public debt;Securities;Government debt management;External debt;Bonds;WP,central bank,coupon rate,maturity,short-term debt
    Date: 2019–10–25
  20. By: Angulo, Laura; Godínez, Raúl; López, Axsell
    Abstract: This research addresses the estimation of total factor productivity for Nicaragua throughout the period 1960-2019 by means of three methods: Solow residual, direct substitution method, and Malmquist index. Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that the direct substitution method is more favorable in long series for the Nicaraguan economy given its particular historical evolution and that the contribution of productivity to economic growth averaged 18 %.
    Keywords: Nicaragua, productivity, Solow residual, Malmquist Index, Direct substitution
    JEL: C22 E12 E13 E23 O40
    Date: 2020–12–24
  21. By: Scott A. Carson
    Abstract: Peer and cohort effects are important in health economics, and obesity may be related to social relationships, where obese individuals interact with other obese individuals. There were significant 19th century cohort effects, where BMIs were related to the cohort that an individual belonged. After accounting for individual relationships between BMI, demographic, socioeconomic, and residential characteristics, there were significant cohort effects associated with race, residence, and age. Moreover, cohort effects reduce the size of the individual relationships between BMI, race, and age, but results are mixed for BMI and residence. This indicates that historical cohort effects are important in BMI and obesity studies.
    Keywords: 19th century BMIs, health cohort effects
    JEL: C10 C40 D10 I10 N30
    Date: 2021
  22. By: Goodhart, C. A. E.; Masciandaro, Donato; Ugolini, Stefano
    Abstract: This paper analyses the monetary policy that the Most Serene Republic of Venice implemented in the years of calamities using a modern equivalent of helicopter money, precisely an extraordinary money issuing, coupled with capital losses for the issuer. We consider the 1629 famine and the 1630-1631 plague as a negative macroeconomic shock that the incumbent government addressed using fiscal monetization. Consolidating the balance sheets of the Mint and of the Giro Bank, and having heterogenous citizens - inequality matters - we show that the Republic implemented what was, in effect, helicopter money driven by political economy reasons, in order to avoid popular riots.
    Keywords: central banking; helicopter money; monetary policy; pandemic; Venice 1630
    JEL: D70 E50 E60 N10 N20
    Date: 2021–01
  23. By: Ilzetzki, Ethan; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
    Abstract: This article provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. We find that the often cited post-Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Even if central bankers' communications jargon has evolved considerably in recent decades, it is apparent that many still place a large implicit weight on the exchange rate. The U.S. dollar scores as the world's dominant anchor currency by a very large margin. By some metrics, its use is far wider today than 70 years ago. In contrast, the global role of the euro appears to have stalled. We argue that in addition to the usual safe assets story, the record accumulation of reserves since 2002 may also have to do with many countries' desire to stabilize exchange rates in an environment of markedly reduced exchange rate restrictions or, more broadly, capital controls: an important amendment to the conventional portrayal of the macroeconomic trilemma.
    JEL: N20 F40 F30 E50
    Date: 2019–05–01
  24. By: Kodila-Tedika, Oasis; Khalifa, Sherif
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of the number of visits by U.S. officials to a country, and the number of visits of the country’s leaders to the United States, on bilateral trade flows between the country and the United States. To achieve our objective, we compile novel variables that indicate the number of official visits from 1960-2015 from the historical archives of the U.S. State Department. To deal with potential endogeneity, we use instrumental variables panel data techniques such as dynamic GMM and systems GMM estimations. The estimation results show that the visits by U.S. Presidents and Secretaries of State do not have a statistically significant effect on bilateral trade flows, while the leader’s trips to the United States have a statistically significant positive effect. This indicates that the leader’s trips to the United States are taken as an opportunity to promote free bilateral trade flows between the country and the United States, while the visits of American officials focus on other issues.
    Keywords: Trade, Executive, Leader’s Trips
    JEL: F10 H11
    Date: 2021–01–26
  25. By: Thien, Tran Dinh; Huyen, Nguyen Thanh Thanh; Phuong, Luong Anh
    Abstract: Anatomy of history as a launch for the future
    Date: 2021–01–15
  26. By: Sonia Bhalotra; Manuel Fernández
    Abstract: We estimate the relative importance of alternative labour supply and demand mechanisms in explaining the rise of female labour force participation over the last 55 years in Mexico. The growth of female labour force participation in Mexico between 1960 and 2015 followed an S-shape, with a considerable acceleration during the 1990s.
    Keywords: Female labour force participation, Mexico, Education, Labor supply, Labour demand
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Deng, Kent; O'Brien, Patrick
    Keywords: Kuznetsian paradigm; GDP; Great Divergence Debate; Eurocentrism; backward extrapolations; margins of error
    JEL: B41 C80 N01 O47
    Date: 2021–01
  28. By: Le Bris, David; Tallec, Ronan
    Abstract: For a French village, we reconstitute most families and build accurate measurements of economic conditions. Combined with marriage contracts (systematic in this written-law area), we are able to control for wealth, Stem households and social status of father and husband for a representative sample. We clarify the operation of the EMP system: bad economic conditions resulted in later female age at marriage, which had positive consequences, such as fewer children, adjusting the population level, and a smaller age difference between spouses, allowing greater agency for women within the couple. A supposed positive effect on human capital is not significant.
    Keywords: European Marriage Pattern, Economic development, Family system, Population, Gender gap, Fertility
    JEL: J12 J13 N3 N33 O12
    Date: 2021–01
  29. By: G. William Schwert
    Abstract: Academic finance has grown and evolved in the 46 years since the Journal of Financial Economics (JFE) began publishing papers. This paper uses detailed data on the 2,858 papers written by 3,152 different authors published in the JFE from 1974-2019. Cumulatively, these papers have received 278,018 citations from other published papers as reflected in the Social Science Citation Index. Increasing computing power and electronic communication have likely resulted in trends toward more empirical work, more co-authorship, and more complex papers. Growth in the demand for finance faculty has driven up faculty salaries, and therefore the demand for journal services.
    JEL: G10 G20 G30
    Date: 2020–12
  30. By: Eric Monnet; Miklos Vari
    Abstract: This paper explores what history can tell us about the interactions between macroprudential and monetary policy. Based on numerous historical documents, we show that liquidity ratios similar to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) were commonly used as monetary policy tools by central banks between the 1930s and 1980s. We build a model that rationalizes the mechanisms described by contemporary central bankers, in which an increase in the liquidity ratio has contractionary effects, because it reduces the quantity of assets banks can pledge as collateral. This effect, akin to quantity rationing, is more pronounced when excess reserves are scarce.
    Keywords: Banking;Reserve requirements;Liquidity requirements;Liquidity indicators;Government securities;WP,discount window,money market,bank liquidity,discount rate
    Date: 2019–08–16
  31. By: Philipp Ager; Katherine Eriksson; Ezra Karger; Peter Nencka; Melissa A. Thomasson
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the last comparable U.S. public health emergency. During both pandemics, many state and local governments made the controversial decision to close schools. We study the short- and long-run effects of 1918-19 pandemic-related school closures on children. We find precise null effects of school closures in 1918 on school attendance in 1919-20 using newly collected data on the exact timing of school closures for 168 cities in 1918-19. Linking affected children to their adult outcomes in the 1940 census, we also find precise null effects of school closures on adult educational attainment, wage income, non-wage income, and hours worked in 1940. Our results are not inconsistent with an emerging literature that finds negative short-run effects of COVID-19-related school closures on learning. The situation in 1918 was starkly different from today: (1) schools closed in 1918 for many fewer days on average, (2) the 1918 virus was much deadlier to young adults and children, boosting absenteeism even in schools that stayed open, and (3) the lack of effective remote learning platforms in 1918 may have reduced the scope for school closures to increase socioeconomic inequality.
    JEL: I20 N32
    Date: 2020–12
  32. By: Christophe Schmitt (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine)
    Abstract: This special issue of Projectique does not resemble the previous journal issues in many respects. In fact, this issue is intended to be unique because it aims not only to celebrate in 2019 the fiftieth anniversary of the publication of The Sciences of the Artificial, translated into French by Jean-Louis Le Moigne, but also to honor the memory of its author, Herbert A. Simon (1916–2001).
    Abstract: Ce numéro de Projectique, à bien des égards, ne ressemble pas aux autres numéros de la revue. En effet, ce numéro se veut original dans la mesure où il s'agit non seulement de célébrer en cette année 2019 le cinquantième anniversaire de la parution de l'ouvrage Les Sciences de l'artificiel (The Science of the Artificial), traduit en français par Jean-Louis Le Moigne, mais aussi d'honorer la mémoire de son auteur, Herbert A. Simon (1916-2001).
    Date: 2019–09–18
  33. By: Algan, Yann (Sciences Po, Paris); Dalvit, Nicolò (Sciences Po, Paris); Do, Quoc-Anh (Sciences Po, Paris); Le Chapelain, Alexis; Zenou, Yves (Monash University)
    Abstract: We study how social interaction and friendship shape students' political opinions in a natural experiment at Sciences Po, the cradle of top French politicians. We exploit arbitrary assignments of students into short-term integration groups before their scholar cursus, and use the pairwise indicator of same-group membership as instrumental variable for friendship. After six months, friendship causes a reduction of differences in opinions by one third of the standard deviation of opinion gap. The evidence is consistent with a homophily-enforced mechanism, by which friendship causes initially politically-similar students to join political associations together, which reinforces their political similarity, without exercising an effect on initially politically-dissimilar pairs. Friendship affects opinion gaps by reducing divergence, therefore polarization and extremism, without forcing individuals' views to converge. Network characteristics also matter to the friendship effect.
    Keywords: political opinion, polarization, friendship effect, social networks, homophily, extremism, learning, natural experiment
    JEL: C93 D72 Z13
    Date: 2020–12
  34. By: João Estevao
    Abstract: During the colonial period and within the framework of the monetary system of the Portuguese colonies, Cabo Verde lived in a situation of relative monetary and exchange stability. After independence, in 1975, the country underwent two monetary transitions: the first, immediately after independence and with the abandonment of the exchange rate parity with the Portuguese escudo; and the second, from 1998 onwards, following an exchange cooperation agreement with Portugal. During both transitions, the country could rebuild monetary and exchange stability, as a result of the way in which institutional and external factors of stability were used in each of them. However, the second transition significantly affected the evolution of trade and international investments in Cabo Verde, whose expansion resulted in a strong growth of the economy and exports. This paper analyses not only the conditions of monetary and exchange stability in the two transitions, but also the nature of the changes that took place with the second transition. Those changes were reflected in a trend of structural transformation and consolidation of the market economy in Cabo Verde, paving the way to the good economic performance of the last few decades.
    Date: 2020–06
  35. By: Villalobos Lopez, Jose Antonio
    Abstract: The birth of the postgraduate degree in Mexico is linked to two major public institutions: the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) from 1932 and the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN) since 1936. Efforts to evaluate the country's postgraduates systematically began in 1984, leading CONACYT with these policies. In 1991, the Graduate of Excellence Programs and in 2001 the National Quality Postgraduate Program (PNCP) was released The Graduate Section of the Higher School of Economics (ESE) of the IPN was founded in 1970, offering a master's degree in economic sciences with three specialties: industrial economy, international trade and economic development. At the beginning of 1986, the doctorate in economics was offered for the first time at the institution. There is a late situation in the administrative procedures of the professional certificates of the first students who took an exam of that academic degree, the first certificate is obtained in 1993, taking on average up to fifteen years to obtain it and the last generations until 2000, took on av-erage 8.6 years to count on that certificate issues the Directorate-General for Professions of the Secretariat of Public Education (SEP) The master's and doctorate in economic sciences offered by ESE-IPN's Graduate Studies and Research Section are recognized by CONACYT's National Graduate Quality Pro-gram, both degrees with research orientation.
    Keywords: postgraduate economics, Mexican postgraduate degrees, master's degree in economics, doctorate in economics
    JEL: A23 I25
    Date: 2021–01–28
  36. By: Victor Gay (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)
    Keywords: War,Military,World War 1
    Date: 2019–04
  37. By: María Isabel Martínez Fernández (UNIR - Universidad Internacional de la Rioja)
    Abstract: Considering the new ruralities, this anthropological research addresses a scenario in transformation, the Najerilla valley in La Rioja, characterized by its accused regional imbalance. In this case study, the influence of the market dynamics in the landscape and the transformations of its methods of production are described and analysed. The findings show the vital role of the capital in the reshaping of rural spaces, generating adaptations and resistances in individual and grupal strategies, because of the arrival of new social actors.
    Abstract: Desde la perspectiva de las nuevas ruralidades, la investigación plantea una aproximación antropológica a un escenario en transformación, el valle riojano del Najerilla, caracterizado por un acusado desequilibrio territorial. En este estudio de caso, a través de la descripción y análisis de la evolución del paisaje, así como de las transformaciones en los modos de producción, se reflexiona sobre la influencia de las dinámicas del mercado en estos contextos. Los resultados evidencian la determinación del capital en la reconstrucción del espacio rural, generando adaptaciones y resistencias en las estrategias tanto individuales como grupales, por la llegada de nuevos actores sociales.
    Keywords: Anthropology,Rural Economy,Deagrarianisation,Landscape Changes,Spain,Antropología,Economía rural,Cambios en el paisaje,Desagrarización,España
    Date: 2020–09–30
  38. By: Réka Juhász; Mara P. Squicciarini; Nico Voigtländer
    Abstract: This paper examines the future of remote work by drawing parallels between two contexts: The move from home to factory-based production during the Industrial Revolution and the shift to work from home today. Both are characterized by a similar trade-off: the potential productivity advantage of the new working arrangement made possible by technology (mechanization or ICT), versus organizational barriers such as coordinating workers. Using contemporary data, we show that organizational barriers seem to be present today. Without further technological or organizational innovations, remote work may not be here to stay just yet.
    JEL: F63 O14
    Date: 2020–12
  39. By: Sissoko, Carolyn; Ishizu, Mina
    Keywords: West India trade; lender of last resort; banking crises; banking system
    JEL: N23 N73
    Date: 2021–01
  40. By: Marco Del Angel; Caroline Fohlin; Marc D. Weidenmier
    Abstract: We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of the global pandemic and war news reported in the New York Times to capture the positive effects of the end of World War I on stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected NYSE stock price index, we show that there is a -.73 correlation between the aggregate stock market and the death rate. Furthermore, vector autoregressions demonstrate that the death rate can explain up to 24 percent of the forecast error variance in the aggregate stock index from September 1918 until the end of the pandemic in March 1920. We also find that the flu had a significant, but varied impact on nine NYSE sectors. The empirical analysis indicates that pandemics can matter big time for stock prices.
    JEL: G1 I1 N2
    Date: 2021–01
  41. By: Tang, Rongsheng
    Abstract: This paper studies the formation of market economy in China from 1978 to 1992, a period in which market economy was introduced and developed alongside planned government procurements for agricultural goods. Under the “dual track system” (DTS), rural farmers were obligated to fulfill government procurements before selling to the market, whereas urban consumers enjoyed de facto subsidies to agricultural products. Using a neoclassical general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers and input-output linkage, this paper exploits historical data and analyzes allocation, prices, and the formation of markets in China during this DTS period. Theoretically, while DTS will distort the resources allocation between rural and urban (misallocation effect), it selects workers and farmers in the rural (selection effect). What is more, comparing to the economy under Soviet-style big bang reform, DTS activates industrialization by providing intermediate goods with lower-than-market price (activation effect). Quantitatively, directly switching to market economy in 1978 would decrease total output by 4.5% as the activation effect dominates. On the intensive margin, reform on DTS ( procurement price was getting closer to market price ) had contributed to total output by 4.4% from 1978 to 1992.
    Keywords: Dual Track System; procurement; price distortion; misallocation
    JEL: E65 N10 O43 O53
    Date: 2021–01–24
  42. By: António Afonso; Max Reimers
    Abstract: We assess whether the introduction of private equity capital markets effects economic growth in African countries. We address this issue by focussing on stock exchange markets as the predominant type of new equity markets,using a Diff-in-Diffregressionmethod.The analysis uses a panel data set from48 Sub-Saharan countries over the time range of 1970-2018.23 countries are part of the “treated” group–which introduced international stock exchanges–and 25 “untreated” countries serve as the control group. Our results show that when compared with the time period priortothe introduction of stock exchange markets, GDP per capita rises by the amount of 532US$ (around 40% of the Sub-Saharan average) after theintroduction of equity capital markets inthe treated countries.Overthe tenyears post introduction, the effect is hump-shaped, with effects becoming statistically significant from the first year after implementation, with a peak in Year 5, and it then becomes statistically insignificant from then onwards.
    JEL: C32 G15 N17
    Date: 2021–01
  43. By: Eoin F. McGuirk; Nathan Nunn
    Abstract: Arid regions of Africa are expanding by thousands of square kilometers a year, potentially disturbing pastoral routes that have been forged over a long period of time. This disturbance is often said to explain why “herder-farmer” conflicts have erupted in recent years, as pastoralists and agriculturalists compete for increasingly scarce resources. We examine this hypothesis by combining ecological and ethnographic data on the location of pastoral ethnic groups with grid-cell level data on violent conflict in Africa from 1989 to 2018. First, using ecological data, (i) we confirm that areas suited to both agriculture and pastoralism are particularly prone to conflict relative to either agricultural or pastoral areas alone; and (ii) we find that the effect of precipitation shocks on conflict in these agro-pastoral zones is negative at the country-level, but not at the cell-level. To explain this pattern, we compile data on the historical location of borders between both types of ethnic groups. We find that droughts in pastoral areas lead to conflict in neighboring agricultural areas. This spillover mechanism appears to explain much of the negative overall relationship between precipitation and conflict in the sample. It implies that agro-pastoral conflict is caused by the displacement of pastoral groups due to low precipitation in their homelands. This finding establishes one mechanism through which climate change can lead to more conflict in agro-pastoral zones.
    JEL: N10 Q54 Z1
    Date: 2020–12
  44. By: Crettez, Bertrand; Deffains, Bruno; Musy, Olivier; Tallec, Ronan
    Abstract: Judicial venality, i.e., the sales of public positions in the judicial sector, was used extensively in France and in Europe from the 16th to the 18th centuries. Offices were bought because judges received trial fees from litigants. Kings sold them because they needed money, at the cost of losing control of the judiciary. We develop a model of judicial venality and we rely on this model to provide an analytic narrative of the rise and the decline of judicial venality in Old Regime France. Historically, judicial venality improved French legal capacity despite limited opportunities to raise taxes and borrow. But judicial venality also sharply increased legal diversity which, in addition to lengthy and costly trials caused its final demise.
    Keywords: Venal Justice, Legal Institutions, Legal Centralization, State Capacity, French Old Regime
    JEL: H1 K0 K40 K41 N40 N43 P48
    Date: 2020–12–25
  45. By: Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad; Roussel, Yannick
    Abstract: The inflow of foreign direct investment shows the economic and political strength of a country (Bevan & Estrin, 2004). Resources agglomeration and foreign direct investment have a theoretical and empirical relationship (Carlton, 1983; Hansen, 1987; Krugman, 1991; Wheeler and Mody, 1992; Friedman et al., 1992; Head et al., 1995; Henderson and Kuncoro, 1996; Head and Ries, 1996; Devereux and Griffith, 1998; Head et al.,1999; Guimaraes et al., 2000). This paper has examined the impact of aggregate and disaggregate natural resources agglomeration on foreign direct investment in the case of France from 1989 to 2012. Seven different model specifications are used for empirical analysis. The inflow of foreign direct investment from Greece, Australia, Austria, Germany, Canada, Finland, Ireland, Hungary, Israel, Japan, Italy, Republic of South Korea, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Turkey, United States, Mexico, Korea and United Kingdom in France is taken as the dependent variable. Total natural resources agglomeration, population density, trade openness, secondary education, taxes, inflation rate, primary education, agriculture land agglomeration, forest agglomeration, oilproduction agglomeration, mineral production agglomeration and natural gas production agglomeration are selected as explanatory variables. The results show that aggregate and disaggregate natural resources agglomeration are important indicators of foreign direct investment. The results show that the population density is a key indicator of foreign direct investment, the current population growth of France and many developed countries is below the replacement rate. Agriculture land agglomeration, oil production agglomeration and mineral production agglomeration are the inputs of many economic activities. This shows that for higher amount of foreign direct investment, natural resources agglomeration must be encouraged.
    Keywords: natural resources agglomeration, foreign direct investment
    JEL: F21 N5
    Date: 2021–01

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.