|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2021‒01‒25
thirty-six papers chosen by |
| By: | Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | President Jackson vetoed the bill to re-charter the Second Bank of the United States on 10 July 1832. I describe events leading to the veto and through the Bank's dissolution in 1836 using private correspondence and official government documents. These sources reveal a political process through which charges against the Bank took hold, accomplices and back-up plans were lined up, and the Bank was ultimately destroyed with the assistance of chartered banks in New York City. Although the aggressive means by which the Bank was dismantled led to a system-wide financial failure and recession in the short term, the long-run outcome was likely a wider diffusion of banking services and a more efficient allocation of capital. The Federal Reserve benefited from applying a more rigorous regulatory structure onto the grid that the populists, free bankers, and National Banking System established. |
| Keywords: | Bank of the United States, Jacksonian monetary policy, central banking, Federal Reserve. |
| JEL: | N2 E4 |
| Date: | 2021–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-21-00001&r=all |
| By: | Eichengreen Barry; Naef Alain |
| Abstract: | Using newly assembled data on foreign exchange market intervention, we construct a daily index of exchange market pressure during the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System. Using this index, we pinpoint when and where the crisis was most severe. Our analysis focuses on a neglected factor in the crisis: the role of the weak dollar in intra-EMS tensions. We provide new evidence of the contribution of a falling dollar-Deutschmark exchange rate to pressure on EMS currencies. |
| Keywords: | European Monetary System, exchange rates, foreign exchange intervention, currency crisis. |
| JEL: | F31 E5 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:793&r=all |
| By: | Agnès Festré (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses Michael Polanyi's vision of economics. We stress two major features: first, the radical opposition to central planning and his defence of self-organization as a superior mechanism for coordinating individual plans that he shared with Hayek; second, the strong support for state interventionism in order to fight unemployment and limit income inequalities that he borrowed from Keynes. Polanyi blended these two apparently contradictory influences and provided an original institutionalist approach, which has unfortunately been underrated in the economics literature. We argue that this approach is consistent with Polanyi's intellectual background and more specifically, his view on tacit knowledge and his critical approach of liberalism. |
| Keywords: | Michael Polanyi,Hayek,Keynes,spontaneous order,State intervention,liberalism,tacit knowledge,public liberty B25,B31,B41 |
| Date: | 2020–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03036824&r=all |
| By: | Nahid Tavassoli; Hamid Noghanibehambari; Farzaneh Noghani; Mostafa Toranji |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the effects of industrial pollution on infant mortality between the years 1850-1940 using full count decennial censuses. In this period, US economy experienced a tremendous rise in industrial activity with significant variation among different counties in absorbing manufacturing industries. Since manufacturing industries are shown to be the main source of pollution, we use the share of employment at the county level in this industry to proxy for space-time variation in industrial pollution. Since male embryos are more vulnerable to external stressors like pollution during prenatal development, they will face higher likelihood of fetal death. Therefore, we proxy infant mortality with different measures of gender ratio. We show that the upswing in industrial pollution during late nineteenth century and early twentieth century has led to an increase in infant mortality. The results are consistent and robust across different scenarios, measures for our proxies, and aggregation levels. We find that infants and more specifically male infants had paid the price of pollution during upswing in industrial growth at the dawn of the 20th century. Contemporary datasets are used to verify the validity of the proxies. Some policy implications are discussed. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.02590&r=all |
| By: | A. Pablo Loarte-Mauricio (Universidad de Salamanca) |
| Abstract: | This article describes the process of social and identity consolidation in Peru since the encounter of Christianity with the Andean religion in the 16th century. The insertion of the Catholic concepts of sin and condemnation created fissures in the self-identity of the indigenous people, who, upon adopting Catholicism, imprinted in it the elements of their own religion. The myth, the Andean spirituality and the Catholic religion have created a new religiosity with emergent properties. This cultural phenomenon expresses the consolidation of Peru's identity, in which the mestizo-indigenous component clearly predominates. |
| Abstract: | Este artículo muestra el proceso de consolidación social e identitaria en el Perú desde el encuentro del cristianismo con la religión andina en el siglo XVI. La inserción de los conceptos católicos de pecado y de condenación produjeron fisuras en la conciencia identitaria de los indígenas, quienes, al adoptar el catolicismo, imprimieron los elementos de su propia religión. El mito, la espiritualidad andina y la religión católica han creado una religiosidad nueva con características emergentes. Este fenómeno cultural expresa una consolidación identitaria del Perú, con un claro predominio del componente mestizo-indígena. |
| Keywords: | Andean Religiosity,Peruvian Identity,Social Process,Miscegenation,Religiosidad andina,Identidad peruana,Proceso social,Mestizaje |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03045418&r=all |
| By: | Tirado-Fabregat, Daniel A.; Martinez-Galarraga, Julio; Díez Minguela, Alfonso; Beltrán Tapia, Francisco J. |
| Abstract: | There is a high degree of inequality in land access across Spain. In the South, and in contrast to other areas of the Iberian Peninsula, economic and political power there has traditionally been highly concentrated in the hands of large landowners. Indeed, an unequal land ownership structure has been linked to social conflict, the presence of revolutionary ideas and a desire for agrarian reform. But what are the origins of such inequality? In this paper we quantitatively examine whether geography and/or history can explain the regional differences in land access in Spain. While marked regional differences in climate, topography and location would have determined farm size, the timing of the Reconquest, the expansion of the Christian kingdoms across the Iberian Peninsula between the 9th and the 15th centuries at the expense of the Moors, influenced the type of institutions that were set up in each region and, in turn, the way land was appropriated and distributed among the Christian settlers. To analyse the effect of these two factors, we rely on the number of farm labourers for all 471 Spanish districts (partidos judiciales) using the information contained in the 1860 Population Census. In line with various classic works, our results show that although geographic factors did play a role, the institutional setting that arose from the Reconquest is key in explaining the unequal distribution of land in Spain, particularly in the former territories of the Kingdom of Castile. |
| Keywords: | Reconquista; Institutions; Geography; Land distribution |
| JEL: | R10 Q15 N93 D02 |
| Date: | 2021–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:31728&r=all |
| By: | Chipten Valibhay (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Théorie et Méthodes de la Conception lnnovante - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, Institut National de la Propriété Industrielle (INPI)); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Théorie et Méthodes de la Conception lnnovante - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Benoit Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Théorie et Méthodes de la Conception lnnovante - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Invention technique, droit du brevet, histoire, brevets, activité inventive, régimes |
| Abstract: | Que nous disent les brevets sur l'histoire des inventions ? C'est par l'intermédiaire du Droit que cet article aborde la question, en étudiant les décisions de justice aux États-Unis entre la fin du XVIIIe et le début du XXIe siècle. En décidant comment le connu et l'inconnu pouvaient s'articuler à différentes périodes, les juges américains ont écrit une histoire des inventions distincte d'une simple histoire du progrès technique. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03023031&r=all |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente; Pep Ruiz |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper describes the latest update of the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA database, in which the regional series of employment (employed and salaried), Gross Value Added (GVA) at current and constant prices and employee compensation in the main RegData module are disaggregated by sector. This Working Paper describes the latest update of the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA database, in which the regional series of employment (employed and salaried), Gross Value Added (GVA) at current and constant prices and employee compensation in the main RegData module are disaggregated by sector. |
| Keywords: | homogeneous series, series homogéneas, Production, Producción, prices, precios, Employment, Empleo, Spanish Regional Accounts, Contabilidad Regional de España, Spain, España, Regional Analysis Spain, Análisis Regional España, Working Papers, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | E01 R1 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2101&r=all |
| By: | Claudio Belini (Instituto de Historia Argentina y Americana Dr. Emilio Ravignani - CONICET); Leandro Haberfeld (Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires - UBA - CONICET) |
| Abstract: | La crisis de la balanza de pagos de 1948 representó el primer episodio de una larga serie, a lo largo del siglo XX, donde la restricción externa estableció límites objetivos a la capacidad de crecimiento de la economía argentina presidida por el desarrollo de la industria y la ampliación de su mercado interno. A lo largo de este artículo se estudia el particular abordaje que tuvo el peronismo de esta temprana crisis del esquema virtuoso aplicado entre 1946 y 1948. Se analizan los cambiantes diagnósticos que realizó el equipo económico, los instrumentos de política económica que se tuvieron en cuenta y los que efectivamente se utilizaron, los límites impuestos por la sustentabilidad política de las posibles alternativas y las restricciones que a las mismas les fueron imponiendo tanto el desarrollo de los mercados internacionales como el devenir de la producción agropecuaria nacional. |
| Keywords: | Crisis de Balanza de Pagos, Peronismo, Sector Externo, Política Económica |
| JEL: | N16 N46 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:202053&r=all |
| By: | Freire Costa, Leonor; Münch Miranda, Susana; Nogues-Marco, Pilar |
| Abstract: | Iberian colonies produced the vast majority of world precious metals in the Early Modern period, which increased liquidity in the Iberian Peninsula. In this paper we focus on the relationship between liquidity and financial development – including other relevant variables such as instruments and institutions – to examine the efficiency of the financial systems in Castile and Portugal. |
| Keywords: | financial system, public debt, private credit market, precious metals, interest rates. |
| JEL: | N13 N23 G15 E44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:147492&r=all |
| By: | Baccini, Leonardo; Brodeur, Abel; Nossek, Sean; Shor, Eran |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify the political impacts of terrorism. We first confirm that the success of terror attacks is plausibly random by showing that it is orthogonal to potential confounders. We then show that on average successful attacks have no effect on presidential and non-presidential elections. As a benchmark, we also rely on a more naïve identification strategy using all the counties not targeted by terrorists as a comparison group. We show that using this naïve identification strategy leads to strikingly different results overestimating the effect of terror attacks on voting behavior. Overall, our results indicate that terrorism has less of an in uence on voters than is usually thought. |
| Keywords: | terrorism,voting behavior |
| JEL: | D72 D74 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:755&r=all |
| By: | Kirill, Chekalov (Чекалов, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work concerns the process of perception of the Countess de Segur's creativity in Russia. Despite the fact that "Les Malheurs de Sophie" was read extremely widely in Russia, the works of Sofya Fedorovna were most often ignored by the press and were often absent from the recommendation lists for children's reading. Her works appear in the Index of Books for Children and Popular Reading, published in 1892, but in the index attached to this publication we find instead of Sophia Feodorovna “Count de Seguur” - that is, Louis Philippe de Segur, her husband's grandfather .. More the situation is sadder with the extensive index compiled in 1910 by the children's writer M.R. Lemke. In the introductory article, the author of the reference book claims that he has been studying the problems of children's reading for a long time. All publications included in the index are divided into four age categories: "books for babies" (from 3 to 7 years old), "books for young children" (from 7 to 9 years old), "books for middle age" (from 9 to 12 years old), “Books for older age” (from 12 to 15 years old). Alas, the works of Countess de Segur are not represented in any of these categories. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052044&r=all |
| By: | Glaser, Darrell J. (U.S. Naval Academy); Rahman, Ahmed S. (Lehigh University) |
| Abstract: | This paper tackles some issues in personnel economics using the career profiles of British naval officers during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We ask how promotions, payouts, positions, and peers affect worker retention. Random variation in task assignments and job promotions allows us to explore factors that affect retention of personnel. We develop a number of key insights. Firm-specific human capital accumulation bolsters retention, while technological changes can undo some of this effect. Other challenges to worker retention include lack of promotion opportunities, and "exit contagion" from exits of former peers. Modernizing organizations may need to enhance promotion opportunities and reorganize certain tasks, or else face loss of skilled personnel. |
| Keywords: | personnel economics, human capital, job mobility, promotion tournaments, technological change, military personnel, naval history, peer effects |
| JEL: | J6 J45 J62 N31 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14037&r=all |
| By: | Tavassoli, Nahid; noghanibehambari, hamid; noghani, farzaneh; toranji, mostafa |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the effects of industrial pollution on infant mortality between the years 1850-1940 using full count decennial censuses. In this period, US economy experienced a tremendous rise in industrial activity with significant variation among different counties in absorbing manufacturing industries. Since manufacturing industries are shown to be the main source of pollution, we use the share of employment at the county level in this industry to proxy for space-time variation in industrial pollution. Since male embryos are more vulnerable to external stressors like pollution during prenatal development, they will face higher likelihood of fetal death. Therefore, we proxy infant mortality with different measures of gender ratio. We show that the upswing in industrial pollution during late nineteenth century and early twentieth century has led to an increase in infant mortality. The results are consistent and robust across different scenarios, measures for our proxies, and aggregation levels. We find that infants and more specifically male infants had paid the price of pollution during upswing in industrial growth at the dawn of the 20th century. Contemporary datasets are used to verify the validity of the proxies. Some policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Pollution, Infant mortality, Gender ratio, 19th Century, Health |
| JEL: | I15 K32 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105093&r=all |
| By: | Jacks, David; Stuermer, Martin |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks, and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new and large dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant. |
| Keywords: | Dry bulk, maritime freight rates, structural VAR |
| JEL: | E30 N7 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104710&r=all |
| By: | Anna Bindler (University of Cologne and University of Gothenburg); Randi Hjalmarsson (University of Gothenburg and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect on crime of creating a fundamental modern-day institution: centralized professional police forces tasked with preventing crime. We study the 1829 formation of the London Metropolitan Police – the first professional force worldwide. Using newly digitized and geocoded crime and police data together with difference-indifferences and pre-post designs, we find evidence of a significant reduction in violent crimes (despite the possibility of off-setting increases in clearance and reporting rates). In contrast, a reduction in property crime is not visible. |
| Keywords: | police, crime, deterrence, economic history, institutions |
| JEL: | K42 N93 H0 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:053&r=all |
| By: | Jeremiah Dittmar; Ralph R. Meisenzahl |
| Abstract: | What can we learn about the potential effects of Covid-19 by looking at plagues of the past? According to Jeremiah Dittmar and Ralf Meisenzahl, history suggests that experiences of severe suffering can lead populations to reject poorly performing ruling elites and generate more inclusive social arrangements. |
| Keywords: | covid-19, plagues, economic history |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:594&r=all |
| By: | Zhenin, Ilya (Женин, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | he work is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the study of the emergence and use of technological changes in historical science, historical sociology and sociology of technology. On the example of the totalitarian regimes of the first half of the twentieth century, which became widespread in the countries of Western Europe, in particular, in Germany, shows controversial and in many respects still debatable plots of the correlation of conservative (nationalist) ideology, which builds its worldview around the constant values of the past and the challenges of the modern era, in particular, industrial and technological changes, which penetrated ever deeper into the political, economic, social and cultural space. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052043&r=all |
| By: | WANG, Alina Yue; KUNG, James Kai-sing |
| Abstract: | It has long been accepted that education is an important determinant of economic growth. What is less often observed is that, through indoctrination, education can also shape preferences and ideology. Using the 1911 Chinese Revolution as example, we demonstrate how the Qing government’s intention to acquire knowledge useful for state building by sending students to study in Japan led to unexpected political consequences. By using the number of Chinese students in Japan as a proxy for the effects of foreign education, we show that counties with a higher density of overseas students had significantly higher participation in political parties, greater representation in electoral politics, and were more likely to declare independence from the Qing government. The content of education also mattered; political activism was significantly stronger in counties where more students studied arts and social sciences subjects. Schools and newspapers were the channels through which the ideology of nationalism was diffused. |
| Keywords: | Ideology, Nationalism, Political Transformation, Content of Education, Human Capital, Imperial China. |
| JEL: | N45 O15 O53 P48 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105140&r=all |
| By: | Heise, Arne |
| Abstract: | The Cambridge Journal of Economics witnessed an important debate between Mark Pernecky and Paul Wojick on the one side and Rod Thomas on the other about the usefulness of Thomas Kuhn's sociology and philosophy of science in explaining why Keynes's revolutionary ideas exposed in the General Theory have been 'lost in translation'. This brief note is an attempt to reconcile Pernecky and Wojick's claim that Keynes's new economics of the General Theory and Walrasian General Equilibrium are incommensurable paradigms in a Kuhnian understanding and Thomas's critique that - if they were incommensurable - Pernecki and Wojick's appraisal of Keynes's paradigm as a better approximation to the 'real world' than Walsrasian General Equilibrum is inconsistent within that very Kuhnian framework. |
| Keywords: | Keynes,Kuhn,Paradigm,Incommensurability |
| JEL: | B2 B40 B5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:82&r=all |
| By: | Ahmad, Zofia; Chicoine, Luke |
| Abstract: | The Silk Roads were a decentralized network of trade routes that connected ancient cities across Eurasia. Goods, ideas, people, and technology moved along the roads for over 1,500 years. Using a detailed georeferenced map of the entire trade network, this paper finds that areas within 50 KM of the historic location of the Silk Roads have higher levels of economic activity today. The persistent effect of proximity to the ancient trade network is associated with increased access to modern transportation infrastructure and the historical diffusion of technology along the routes but cannot be explained by differences in contemporary or historical levels of population density. This analysis is complemented by individual-level data from 22 countries; we find that districts with populations closest to the Silk Roads have higher rates of inter-group marriage, suggesting a weakening of social boundaries between groups that might possess differential technological knowledge. |
| Keywords: | ancient trade network; nighttime light intensity; modern transportation infrastructure; technological diffusion; cultural persistence |
| JEL: | N75 O18 O33 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105146&r=all |
| By: | Herrade Igersheim (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The death of welfare economics has been declared several times. One of the reasons cited for these plural obituaries is that Kenneth Arrow's impossibility theorem, as set out in his path-breaking Social Choice and Individual Values in 1951, has shown that the social welfare function-one of the main concepts of the new welfare economics as defined by Abram Bergson (Burk) in 1938 and clarified by Paul Samuelson in the Foundations of Economic Analysis (1947, ch. VIII)-does not exist under reasonable conditions. Indeed, from the very start, Arrow kept asserting that his famous impossibility result has direct and devastating consequences for the Bergson-Samuelson social welfare function (1948, 1950, 1951a, 1963), though he seemed to soften his position in the early eighties. On his side, especially from the seventies on, Samuelson remained active on this issue and continued to defend the concept he had devised with Bergson, tooth and nail, against Arrow' |
| Keywords: | welfare economics JEL Codes. B21,social choice theory,Samuelson,Arrow,Social welfare function |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03095907&r=all |
| By: | Gilles Campagnolo (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Christel Vivel (Esdes Business School of the Catholic University of Lyon, France.) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the last part of a trilogy on the theory and history of entrepreneurship in Austrian school of economics. The triptych ends with contemporary members by comparing Israel Kirzner and Murray Rothbard. The migration of the Austrian school induced a new assessment of Austrian traits in a new setting. While we do not focus on the history of the Austrian school in America as such, we will stress how Kirzner focused his view of entrepreneurship on the concepts of alertness, discovery by opportunity and the equilibrating action of the entrepreneur – while Rothbard’s contribution was more ideologically engaged. |
| Keywords: | Austrian School of Economics, entrepreneurship, institutions, Kirzner (Israel), methodology, Rothbard (Murray) |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2103&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Xintong (Binghamton University, New York); Flores, Carlos A. (California Polytechnic State University); Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the short- and long-term effects of the U.S. Vietnam-era military service on veterans' health outcomes using a restricted version of the National Health Interview Survey 1974-2013 and employing the draft lotteries as an instrumental variable (IV). We start by assessing whether the draft lotteries, which have been used as an IV in prior literature, satisfy the exclusion restriction by placing bounds on its net or direct effect on the health outcomes of individuals who are non-veterans regardless of their draft eligibility (the "never takers"). Since we do not find evidence against the validity of the IV, we assume its validity in conducting inference on the health effects of military service for individuals who comply with the draft-lotteries assignment (the "compliers"), as well as for those who volunteer for enlistment (the "always takers"). The causal analysis for volunteers, who represent over 75% of veterans, is novel in this literature that typically focuses on the compliers. Since the effect for volunteers is not point-identified, we employ bounds that rely on a mild mean weak monotonicity assumption. We examine a large array of health outcomes and behaviors, including mortality, up to 40 years after the end of the Vietnam War. We do not find consistent evidence of detrimental health effects on compliers, in line with prior literature. For volunteers, however, we document that their estimated bounds show statistically significant detrimental health effects that appear 20 years after the end of the conflict. As a group, veterans experience similar statistically significant detrimental health effects from military service. These findings have implications for policies regarding compensation and health care of veterans after service. |
| Keywords: | veteran health, treatment effects, bounds, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | I12 C31 C36 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14045&r=all |
| By: | Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Historical Economics and Development Group (HEDG)); Dahl, Christian Møller (Department of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research illuminates the historical development and clustering of creative activity in the United States. Census data is used to identify creative occupations (i.e., artists, musicians, authors, actors) and data on prominent creatives, as listed in a comprehensive biographical compendium. The analysis first sheds light on the socio-economic background of creative people and how it has changed since 1850. The results indicate that the proportion of female creatives is relatively high, time constraints can be a hindrance for taking up a creative occupation, racial inequality is present and tends to change only slowly, and access to financial resources within a family facilitates the uptake of an artistic occupation. Second, the study systematically documents and quantifies the geography of creative clusters in the United States and explains how these have evolved over time and across creative domains. |
| Keywords: | Creativity; artists; geographic clustering; agglomeration economies; urban history |
| JEL: | N33 R10 Z11 |
| Date: | 2021–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2021_001&r=all |
| By: | W. Bentley MacLeod; Miguel Urquiola |
| Abstract: | Around 1875 the U.S. had none of the world’s leading research universities; today, it accounts for the majority of the top-ranked. Many observers cite events surrounding World War II as the source of this reversal. We present evidence that U.S. research universities had surpassed most countries’ decades before WWII. An explanation of their dominance must therefore begin earlier. The one we offer highlights reforms that began after the Civil War and enhanced the incentives and resources the system directs at research. Our story is not one of success by design, but rather of competition leading American colleges to begin to care about research. We draw on agency theory to argue that this led to increasing academic specialization, and in turn, to more precise measures of professors’ research output. Combined with sorting dynamics that concentrated talent and resources at some schools—and the emergence of tenure—this enhanced research performance. |
| JEL: | I2 I23 N0 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28279&r=all |
| By: | Elizabeth Gooch (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University, USA); Bauyrzhan Yedgenov (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the causal impact of institutional quality on economic development from a novel perspective. At the country level, we exploit variation in the malaria prevalence in 1900, just before vector-control methods were developed, to instrument for institutional quality using a two-stage least squares instrumental variables framework. Our instrument is a population-weighted average of malaria endemicity estimates for the year 1900 developed by the WHO in the 1960s. We argue that this measure of historical malaria offers more expansive geographic information about the disease environment than other metrics, and our baseline IV estimates reveal that greater institutional quality causes greater contemporaneous economic growth. Next, we investigate the robustness of these baseline results to alternative explanations, including the role of geography and early colonizers’ experiences, as the causal link between the early disease environmental, institutional quality and contemporary growth. As an additional test of the explanatory power of malaria endemicity, we replace our instrument for settler mortality and replicate the core results from the seminal study on the colonial origins of comparative development by Acemoglu et al. (2001). In summary, we propose that malaria endemicity, estimated for 1900, holistically explains the legacy of early disease on institutional quality development and contemporary economic development. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2101&r=all |
| By: | Giuseppe Conti; Luciano Fanti |
| Abstract: | Following a renewed interest for the investigation of the monetary policy in the Italian experience, this paper focus on the role of the official reserves as a target of Bank of Italy for the period 1961-1990, motivated by a long lasting tradition (e.g. Hawtrey, Keynes, Kaldor) for which reserves were crucial for the central bank behaviour. This paper analyses, mostly by using the Granger causality test, if this "traditional" rule could have been working for Italy in recent periods as well, regardless of exchange rate regimes and the mainstream monetary theories. Main conclusions neatly support the existence of two sub-periods: a first one (before 1979) during which the "traditional" praxis occurs; and a second one (after 1979) when the "alternative" praxis seems to prevail. This would confirm the break in monetary targeting adopted by the Italian central bank at the end of the Seventies. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, interest rate, reserve ratio, Bank of Italy, Granger test |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2020/264&r=all |
| By: | David J. Schwegman; John Yinger |
| Abstract: | In 1981, New York State enabled their cities to adopt the Homestead Tax Option (HTO), which created a multi-tiered property tax system for rental properties in New York City, Buffalo, and Rochester. The HTO enabled these municipalities to impose a higher property tax rate on rental units in buildings with four or more units, compared to rental units in buildings with three or fewer units. Using restricted-use American Housing Survey data and historical property tax rates from each of these cities, we exploit within-unit across-time variation in property tax rates and rents to estimate the degree to which property taxes are shifted onto renters in the form of higher rents. We find that property owners shift approximately 14 percent of an increase in taxes onto renters. This study is the first to use within-unit across time variation in property taxes and rents to identify this shifting effect. Our estimated effect is measurably smaller than most previous studies, which often found shifting effects of over 60 percent. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:20-43&r=all |
| By: | Kamble, Vaibhav |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of birth weight on a series of anthropometric outcomes among children. We use a panel of individual-level data from 39 developing countries covering the years 1999-2018 and attempt to solve the Endogeneity using mother fixed effect and twin fixed-effect strategies. The results suggest that improvements in birth weight result in statistically and economically significant improvements in children's anthropometric outcomes. An additional 100 grams birth weight is associated with a 0.43 and 0.25 units increase in weight for age percentile and height for age percentile, respectively. The links are stronger among low educated mothers and poorer households. The observed protective effect of birth weight on infant mortality suggests that the true effects of birth weight on children’s outcomes are larger and that the estimated effects probably understate the true effects. |
| Keywords: | Health, Fetal Origin Hypothesis, Children Anthropometry, Height for Age, Weight for Age, Birth Weight, Twin Fixed Effect |
| JEL: | D10 I15 J13 P36 |
| Date: | 2021–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105150&r=all |
| By: | Gay, Victor |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the pathways that underlie the diffusion of women's participation in the labor force across generations. I exploit a severe exogenous shock to the sex ratio, World War I in France, which generated a large inflow of women in the labor force after the war. I show that this shock to female labor transmitted to subsequent generations until today. Three mechanisms of intergenerational transmission account for this result: parental transmission, transmission through marriage, and transmission through local social interactions. Beyond behaviors, the war also permanently altered beliefs toward the role of women in the labor force. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation; World War I; Sex ratio; Intergenerational transmission; Gender norms |
| JEL: | J16 J22 N34 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125087&r=all |
| By: | Uddin, Godwin |
| Abstract: | This article recapitulates some of the trade theories reputed to be of the twentieth century. Here, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory (with some of its variants), endogenous growth theory, product cycle theory, and new trade theory were considered. This review thereof, amidst others, highlight some of the assumptions of these theories and thus present some critique of the same theories. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Critique; Heckscher-Ohlin theory; endogenous growth theory; product cycle theory; new trade theory |
| JEL: | F0 F00 F1 F10 |
| Date: | 2021–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105194&r=all |
| By: | Tahir Andrabi (Pomona College, California, USA); Sheetal Bharat (BASE University); Michael Kuehlwein (Pomona College, California, USA) |
| Abstract: | In contrast to the literature on railways, there have been few empirical studies of the impact of telegraphs, another revolutionary technology, on price convergence. The few that exist measure the impact of telegraphs on commodity price differences between countries in the presence of a well-established efficient transportation system: ocean shipping. This paper estimates the impact of telegraphs within a developing economy, British India, with sparse, inefficient transportation. We use a rich dataset of rice and wheat prices for 192 districts between 1862 and 1920. Over 14,000 district pairs are linked by telegraph in the sample. We obtain strong evidence that, even in this context, telegraphs significantly reduced grain price dispersion before railways appeared. There were also spillover effects on neighboring districts. The combined impact of railways and telegraphs still cannot explain most of the convergence in our sample. However, the results highlight the potential importance that communication advances had on late 19th century market integration in less developed economies. |
| Keywords: | Price convergence; information; telegraph; British India; grain prices |
| JEL: | L96 N75 O13 O18 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alj:wpaper:04/2021&r=all |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser |
| Abstract: | Cities are shaped by transportation infrastructure. Older cities were anchored by waterways. Nineteenth century cities followed the path of streetcars and subways. The 20th century city rebuilt itself around the car. The close connection between transportation and urban form is natural, since cities are defined by their density. Physical proximity and transportation investments serve the common cause of reducing the transportation costs for goods, people and ideas. The close connection between transportation and urban form suggests the need for spatial equilibrium models that embed a full set of equilibrium effects into any evaluation of transportation spending. Their connection implies that restrictions on land use will change, and often reduce, the value of investing in transportation infrastructure. Future transportation innovations, including autonomous vehicles and telecommuting, are likely to also change urban form, although cities often take decades to adapt to new forms of mobility. |
| JEL: | F61 N70 R14 R41 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28287&r=all |
| By: | Michael Lokshin; Vladimir Kolchin; Martin Ravallion |
| Abstract: | The paper formalizes and tests the hypothesis that greater exposure to big shocks induces stronger societal responses for adaptation and protection from future big shocks. We find support for this hypothesis in various strands of the literature and in new empirical tests using cross-country data on deaths due to COVID-19 and deaths during World War 2. Countries with higher death rates in the war saw lower death rates in the first wave of the COVID pandemic, though the effect faded in the pandemic’s second wave. Our tests are robust to a wide range of model specifications and alternative assumptions. |
| JEL: | D02 D74 I12 N10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28291&r=all |
| By: | Matthias Flückiger (University of York, York, YO105DD, United Kingdom); Erik Hornung (CAGE, CEPR, CESifo, ECONtribute, and University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, 50923 Cologne, Germany); Mario Larch (CEPII, CESifo, ifo, GEP, and University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr.30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany); Markus Ludwig (CESifo and Technical University of Braunschweig, Spielmannstraße9, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany); Allard Mees (Romano-Germanic Central Museum-Leibniz Archaeological Research Institute, Ernst-Ludwig-Platz 2, 55116 Mainz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We show that the creation of the first integrated multi-modal pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that contemporary interregional trade was influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence integration as approximated by cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is partly explained by selective infrastructure routing and cultural integration due to bilateral convergence in preferences and values. We show that our results are Roman-connectivity specific and do not reflect pre-existing patterns of exchange using pre-Roman trade data. |
| Keywords: | Economic integration, Roman trade, transport network connectivity, business links, cultural similarity |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F21 N73 R12 R40 O18 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:051&r=all |