nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒01‒18
thirty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Pandemics and Historical Mortality in India By Tumbe, Chinmay
  2. Homoploutia: Top Labor and Capital Incomes in the United States, 1950—2020 By Berman, Yonatan; Milanovic, Branko; , Stone Center
  3. Income Inequality under Colonial Rule: Evidence from French Algeria, Cameroon, Tunisia, and Vietnam and comparisons with British colonies 1920-1960 By Facundo Alvaredo; Denis Cogneau; Thomas Piketty
  4. History’s Masters: The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance By Sebastian Ottinger; Nico Voigtländer
  5. A Machine-Learning History of English Caselaw and Legal Ideas Prior to the Industrial Revolution II: Applications By Peter Grajzl; Peter Murrell
  6. Unbridgeable: Why Political Economists Cannot Accept Capital as Power By Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon
  7. Productivity, Mortality, and Technology in European and US Coal Mining, 1800-1913 By Javier Silvestre
  8. Post-colonial Trends of Income Inequality: Evidence from the Overseas Departments of France By Yajna Govind
  9. Jesus Speaks Korean: Christianity and Literacy in Colonial Korea By Sascha O. Becker; Cheongyeon Won
  10. Geopolitics of the Brazilian Iron Ore in the Interwar Period By Gustavo Barros
  11. The Making and Consolidation of the First National Trademark System: Diffusion of Trademarks across Spanish Regions (1850–1920) By Patricio Saiz; Jose Luis Zofio; ; ;
  12. Private asset income in France: Is there a breakdown of intergenerational equity between 1979 and 2011? By Hippolyte d'Albis; Ikpidi Badji; Najat El Mekkaoui; Julien Navaux
  13. The Political Economy of Incarceration in the Cotton South, 1910-1925 By Muller, Christopher; Schrage, Daniel
  14. A Machine-Learning History of English Caselaw and Legal Ideas Prior to the Industrial Revolution I: Generating and Interpreting the Estimates By Peter Grajzl; Peter Murrell
  15. Wealth and Shifting Demand Pressures on the Price Level in England After the Black Death By Anthony Edo; Jacques Melitz
  16. Violence in the Viking World: New Bioarchaeological Evidence By Joerg Baten; Giacomo Benati; Anna Kjellström,
  17. American Business Cycles 1889-1913: An Accounting Approach By Dou Jiang; Mark Weder
  18. Demand Shocks, Procurement Policies, and the Nature of Medical Innovation: Evidence from Wartime Prosthetic Device Patents By Jeffrey P. Clemens; Parker Rogers
  19. Essays in Honor of Professor Badi H Baltagi: Editorial By Li, Qi; Sarafidis, Vasilis; Westerlund, Joakim
  20. Is British Output Growth Related to its Uncertainty? Evidence using Eight Centuries of Data By Don Bredin; Stilianos Fountas; Christos Savva
  21. Re-investigating English Origins of New Zealand English via Phylogenetic Reconstruction By Weihang Huang
  22. Consequences of War: Japan's Demographic Transition and the Marriage Market By Ogasawara, Kota; Komura, Mizuki
  23. The Effects of Protectionism Developed after the Great Depression on Global Trade: A Macroeconomic Analysis By Toptancı, Ali İskan
  24. Series largas de VAB y empleo regional por sectores, 1955-2019. Actualización de RegData-Sect hasta 2019 By Angel de la Fuente; Pep Ruiz Aguirre
  25. Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history By Mehdi El Herradi; Aurélien Leroy
  26. Global Mobility and the Threat of Pandemics: Evidence from Three Centuries By Clemens, Michael A.; Ginn, Thomas
  27. The Leontief Paradox Redux By Kozo Kiyota
  28. Anything but gold. The golden constant revisited By Jean-François Carpantier
  29. Remittances and Value Added across Economic sub-sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  30. A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016 By Rausser, Gordon; Stuermer, Martin
  31. Fuel subsidies and Carbon Emission: Evidence from asymmetric modelling By Ibrahim A. Adekunle; Isiaq O. Oseni

  1. By: Tumbe, Chinmay
    Abstract: This paper presents selected historical mortality statistics of India and analyses their characteristics and trends. Statistics are collated from a wide range of sources as time series at different regional scales, and particularly for the pandemics related with cholera, plague and influenza between 1817 and 1920. The paper analyses rare burial records in 19th century Calcutta, constructs the global distribution of deaths due to pandemic cholera in the 19th and early 20th century, and provides new mortality estimates of the 1918 influenza pandemic in India. The paper also presents a bibliography of over 250 studies on pandemics and historical mortality in India.
    Date: 2020–12–31
  2. By: Berman, Yonatan; Milanovic, Branko; , Stone Center (The Graduate Center/CUNY)
    Abstract: Homoploutia describes the situation in which the same people (homo) are wealthy (ploutia) in the space of capital and labor income in some country. It can be quantified by the share of capital-income rich who are also labor-income rich. In this paper we combine several datasets covering different time periods to document the evolution of homoploutia in the United States from 1950 to 2020. We find that homoploutia was low after World War II, has increased by the early 1960s, and then decreased until the mid-1980s. Since 1985 it has been sharply increasing: In 1985, about 17% of adults in the top decile of capital-income earners were also in the top decile of labor-income earners. In 2018 this indicator was about 30%. This makes the traditional division to capitalists and laborers less relevant today. It makes periods characterized by high interpersonal inequality, high capital-income ratio and high capital share of income in the past fundamentally different from the current situation. High homoploutia has far-reaching implications for social mobility and equality of opportunity. We also study how homoploutia is related to total income inequality. We find that rising homoploutia accounts for about 20% of the increase in total income inequality in the United States since 1986. (Stone Center Working Paper Series)
    Date: 2020–12–31
  3. By: Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Denis Cogneau (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: In this article we assess income inequality across French and British colonial empires between 1920 and 1960. For the first time, income tax tabulations are exploited to assess the case studies of French Algeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, and Vietnam, which we compare to British colonies and dominions. As measured by top income shares, inequality was high in colonies. It fell after WWII, but stabilized at much higher levels than in mainland France or the United Kingdom in the 1950s. European settlers or expatriates comprised the bulk of top income earners, and only a minority of autochthons could compete in terms of income, particularly in Africa. Top income shares were no higher in settlement colonies, not only because those territories were wealthier but also because the average European settler was less rich than the average European expatriate. Inequality between Europeans in colonies was similar to (or even below) that of the metropoles. In settlement colonies, the post-WWII fall in income inequality can be explained by a fall in inequality between Europeans, mirroring that of the metropoles, and does not imply that the European/autochthon income gap was reduced.
    Keywords: Inequality,Top incomes,Colonialism,Africa,Asia
    Date: 2020–07
  4. By: Sebastian Ottinger; Nico Voigtländer
    Abstract: We create a novel reign-level dataset for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers’ intellectual capabilities and state-level outcomes. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that i) rulers were appointed according to primogeniture, independent of their ability, and ii) the wide-spread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led to quasi-random variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers. The ‘coefficient of inbreeding’ is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable bearing on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that ‘leaders made history,’ shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states in the 19th century. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state’s performance. Thus, the strengthening of parliaments in Northern European states (where kin marriage of dynasties was particularly widespread) may have shielded them from the detrimental effects of inbreeding.
    JEL: D02 D73 N43 P16
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: Peter Grajzl; Peter Murrell
    Abstract: This is the second of two papers that generate and analyze quantitative estimates of the development of English caselaw and associated legal ideas before the Industrial Revolution. In the first paper, we estimated a 100-topic structural topic model, named the topics, and showed how to interpret topic-prevalence timelines. Here, we provide examples of new insights that can be gained from these estimates. We first provide a bird's-eye view, aggregating the topics into fifteen themes. Procedure is the highest-prevalence theme, but by the mid-18th century attention to procedure decreases sharply, indicating solidification of court institutions. Important ideas on real-property were substantially settled by the mid-17th century and on contracts and torts by the mid-18th century. Thus, crucial elements of caselaw developed before the Industrial Revolution. We then examine the legal ideas associated with England's financial revolution. Many new legal ideas relevant to finance were well accepted before the Glorious Revolution. Finally, we examine the sources of law used in the courts. Emphasis on precedent-based reasoning increases by 1650, but diffusion was gradual, with pertinent ideas solidifying only after 1700. Ideas on statute applicability were accepted by the mid-16th century but debates on the legislature’s intent still occurred in 1750.
    Keywords: English history, institutional development, caselaw, financial revolution, sources of law
    JEL: C80 N00 K10 O43
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon
    Abstract: The theory of capital as power (CasP) is radically different from conventional political economy. In the conventional view, mainstream as well as heterodox, capital is seen a 'real' economic entity engaged in the production of goods and services, and capitalism is thought of as a mode of production and consumption. Finance in this approach is either a mere reflection/lubricant of the real economy (the mainstream view), or a parasitic fiction (the heterodox perspective). CasP rejects this framework. Capital, it argues, is not a productive economic entity, but a symbolic representation of organized societal power writ large, and capitalism should be analysed not as a mode of production and consumption, but as a mode of power. In this approach, finance is neither a reflection nor a fiction, but the symbolic language that organizes and creorders - or creates the order of - capitalized power. These are foundational claims. They go to the very heart of political economy, and they have far-reaching implications. So far-reaching, in fact, that if we accept them, we must rewrite, often from scratch, much of the theory, history and possible futures of the capitalist order. Many have complained about CasP being aloof. Our approach, they have argued, insists on being 'right' - to the exclusion of all others. It shows no interest in 'building bridges'. It dismisses neoclassical liberalism altogether, and although sometimes sympathetic to Marx, it aims not to revise Marxism, but to discard it altogether. In this research note - excerpted and revised from our 2020 invited-then-rejected interview with Revue de la regulation - we explain the basis for these complaints and why CasP and conventional political economy cannot be easily bridged. Stated briefly, the problem is not unwillingness but built-in barriers. As it stands, political economy cannot accept capital as power. Its very foundations prevent it from doing so.
    Keywords: capital as power,Marxism,neoclassical economics,political economy,power,value
    JEL: P16 D46 C18
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Javier Silvestre (Universidad de Zaragoza)
    Abstract: European coal production underwent a period of dramatic increase from the early nineteenth century to 1913. A consensus exists, however, for a depiction of the coal industry as, to a high degree, technologically stagnant throughout the long nineteenth century. Macro-inventions, or general purpose technologies, in fact, appeared at either end of the period. In the interregnum, therefore, the increase in European coal production would have mainly been the result of adding more labor rather than developing new technology. This paper aims to revise this interpretation. First, long-term series of labor productivity and fatality rates data are presented. Second, a link between improvements in Europe both in productivity and safety in conjunction with a series of “small-scale”, for the most part complementary to labor and closely related to questions of safety, technological innovations is proposed. A comparison of productivity and safety for European countries is established with the US.
    Keywords: Long nineteenth-century coal mining, productivity, mortality, technology, Europe, United States
    JEL: N70 N50 N30 Q35 O33
    Date: 2021–01
  8. By: Yajna Govind (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: Most ex-colonies have gained their independence during the decolonization wave in the last century. Recent research on the colonial legacy in terms of inequality has thus mostly focused on these independent states, overlooking the territories which have been assimilated by their ex-colonizers. This paper analyzes the post-colonial inequality in four such territories-La Réunion, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Guyane. Drawing on a new income tax dataset put together in this paper, I study the evolution of income inequality in the four oldest French colonies, now overseas departments of France, since their decolonization in 1946 until recent years. The results of the top 1% income shares reveal a rapid decline of inequality since decolonization and stabilisation in the recent decade. Despite the general catch-up of the overseas departments, the top 10% income share remained consistently higher than in the metropolis. Going further, I investigate the underlying cleavage: the metropolitan-native divide. Matching recent fiscal data to the corresponding population census, I show that public-sector employment and metropolitans are over-represented at the top of the distribution and that there exist a "metropolitan income premium" in the overseas departments, even after controlling for observable characteristics.
    Keywords: Inequality,France,Post-Colonial
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: Sascha O. Becker (SoDa Laboratories, Monash University); Cheongyeon Won (SoDa Laboratories, Monash University)
    Abstract: In the mid 19th century, pre-colonial Korea under the Joseon dynasty was increasingly isolated and lagging behind in its economic development. Joseon Korea was forced to sign unequal treaties with foreign powers as a result of which Christian missionaries entered the country and contributed to the establishment of private schools. We show that areas with a larger presence of Christians have higher literacy rates in 1930, during the Japanese colonial period. We also show that a higher number of Protestants is associated with higher female literacy, consistent with a stronger emphasis on female education in Protestant denominations.
    Keywords: Literacy, Religion, Missionaries, Gender gap, Korea
    JEL: I21 N35 Z12 J16
    Date: 2021–01
  10. By: Gustavo Barros (UFJF - Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora)
    Abstract: This work explores the conflict in the international sphere in the interwar period regarding the exploitation of the large iron ore reserves in the central region of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, along with some of their implications. The literature that covers the debate about the steel-making problem and iron ore export, which occurred in Brazil from the 1910s to the early 1940s, largely neglected the differentiation of interests and antagonism between the world powers regarding the exploitation of these mineral resources. I argue here that this exploitation had significant strategic potential implications to the balance of power among European powers within the configuration established after the Treaty of Versailles. This circumstance unfolded into relevant events in Brazil, and allows us to understand both that ARBED came to the country to create the Companhia Siderúrgica Belgo-Mineira and the emergence of an openly antiexport discourse from some prominent politicians from Minas Gerais.
    Abstract: Este trabalho explora as cisões no plano internacional no período entreguerras relativas à exploração das amplas reservas de minério de ferro da região central de Minas Gerais e algumas de suas implicações. A historiografia que trata do debate sobre a questão siderúrgica e a exportação de minério de ferro, travado no Brasil entre a década de 1910 e o início da de 1940, pouca atenção deu à diferenciação e ao conflito de interesses entre as potências mundiais quanto à exploração desses recursos minerais. Argumento aqui que essa exploração tinha implicações estratégias potenciais significativas para o equilíbrio de forças entre as potências europeias no âmbito da configuração que se estabeleceu após o Tratado de Versalhes. Que isso tenha ocorrido teve desdobramentos relevantes para os eventos no Brasil, e nos permite compreender tanto a vinda da ARBED ao país para constituir a Companhia Siderúrgica Belgo-Mineira, quanto o surgimento de um discurso abertamente antiexportador da parte de algumas figuras de grande expressão política em Minas Gerais.
    Keywords: Interwar period,Geopolitics,Iron ore,Steel-making,Entreguerras,Geopolítica,Minério de ferro,Siderurgia
    Date: 2019
  11. By: Patricio Saiz; Jose Luis Zofio; ; ;
    Abstract: This article studies the creation and consolidation of a trademark system tantamount to market integration and commercial specialization of Spanish regions from 1850 to 1920. We analyze the first 47,000 registrations, their geographical distribution, and the drivers behind this trademark expansion. By using a lineal probability model, we find knowledge spillovers across regions are associated with their relative trademark specialization and diversification. We incorporate the role played by transport infrastructure by calculating generalized transport costs. Our results clarify the origins and evolution of geographical differences in commercial innovation and regional specialization in the first country to institute modern trademark legislation.
    Keywords: Trademarks/Branding; Specialization/Diversification; Generalized Transport Costs; Regional History; Makets; Spain
    JEL: N93 O34 C25 R12
    Date: 2020–12
  12. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ikpidi Badji (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Najat El Mekkaoui (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Navaux (uOttawa - University of Ottawa [Ottawa])
    Abstract: We use the National Transfer Accounts methodology to calculate private asset income by age for the years 1979–2011. We analyze age profiles using three indicators of intergenerational equity. Monetary asset income shows no evidence of generational breaks to the benefit of the baby‐boom generation. On the contrary, baby‐boomers suffered from the high interest rates that they paid to become homeowners. Imputed rents show an obvious breakdown of intergenerational equity when we use an inter‐age and intergenerational indicator. This indicator compares the per capita asset income at a given age with the average asset income of people aged 18‐85. It gives the relative situation of one age group compared to its contemporaries and it also gives the relative situation of one generation when we compare birth cohorts over time. We find that the cohort born in 1950 benefited from a better position than their successors. Moreover, the cohorts born before the war and during the war appear to be even more favored than the baby‐boomers. The cohorts born in 1930 and in 1940 have a better situation than the previous generations and a better position than the following generations.
    Keywords: National Transfer Accounts,Private Asset Income,Intergenerational Equity
    Date: 2020–10
  13. By: Muller, Christopher; Schrage, Daniel
    Abstract: A large theoretical literature in sociology connects increases in incarceration to contractions in the demand for labor. But previous research on how the labor market affects incarceration is often functionalist and seldom causal. We estimate the effect of a shock to the southern agricultural labor market during a time when planters exerted a clear influence over whether workers or potential workers were incarcerated. From 1915 to 1920, a beetle called the boll weevil spread across the state of Georgia, causing cotton yields and the demand for agricultural workers to fall. Using archival records of incarceration in Georgia, we find that the boll weevil infestation increased the Black prison admission rate for property crimes by more than a third. The infestation’s effects on whites and on prison admissions for other crimes were small and not statistically significant. Our analysis offers a conditional theory of the political economy of punishment, clarifies the relationship between incarceration and the economic institutions that replaced slavery, and contributes to a growing literature on incarceration and exploitation in the labor market.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, incarceration, labor markets, political economy of punishment, Cotton South, agricultural labor market
    Date: 2019–06–05
  14. By: Peter Grajzl; Peter Murrell
    Abstract: The history of England’s institutions has long informed research on comparative economic development. Yet to date there exists no quantitative evidence on a core aspect of England’s institutional evolution, that embodied in the accumulated decisions of English courts. Focusing on the two centuries before the Industrial Revolution, we generate and analyze the first quantitative estimates of the development of English caselaw and its associated legal ideas. We achieve this in two companion papers. In this, the first of the pair, we build a comprehensive corpus of 52,949 reports of cases heard in England's high courts before 1765. Estimating a 100-topic structural topic model, we name and interpret all topics, each of which reflects a distinctive aspect of English legal thought. We produce time series of the estimated topic prevalences. To interpret the topic timelines, we develop a tractable model of the evolution of legal-cultural ideas and their prominence in case reports. In the companion paper, we will illustrate with multiple applications the usefulness of the large amount of new information generated by our approach.
    Keywords: English history, institutional development, machine learning, caselaw, idea diffusion
    JEL: C80 N00 K10 Z10 P10
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Anthony Edo; Jacques Melitz
    Abstract: The scale of the rise in personal wealth following the Black Death calls the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption into consideration. This paper shows for the first time that the wealth effect of the Black Death on the price level continued in England for generations, up to 1450. Indeed, in absence of consideration of the wealth effect, other influences on the price level do not even appear in the econometric analysis. The separate roles of coinage, population, trade, wages and annual number of days worked for wages all also receive attention and new results follow for adjustment in the labor market.
    Keywords: Black Death;Fourteenth-century England;Price Level;Great Famine
    JEL: N13 J11 F33 J46
    Date: 2020–12
  16. By: Joerg Baten (University of Tübingen); Giacomo Benati (University of Tübingen); Anna Kjellström, (University of Stockholm)
    Abstract: Vikings – the Scandinavian seafaring populations that dominated the North Seas between the eighth and eleventh centuries CE – are usually described as pirates and warriors living in a highly aggressive society. But was this really the case? How violent were the Vikings among themselves? In this study, we compare the share of cranial trauma and weapon wounds that we can observe for several skeletal samples of Scandinavian societies with other European medieval populations (excluding military and warrior populations). This is the first time that Viking violence can be empirically compared with a standardised European sample of 2,379 skeletons. We find that Scandinavian rural and urban communities were characterised by remarkably low levels of interpersonal violence, relative to other Europeans. Given the lack of strong centralisation of states, police deterrence mechanisms and low literacy, the best possible explanation for this pattern may be found in the relatively high gender equality that characterised Viking rural communities – as attested by significant health levels of female skeletal remains, relative to males. Low population density, specialisation in cattle farming and extensive grazing entailed a more significant role for women in household economies. This, in turn, may have had an ameliorative effect reducing the motivation for violence in general. This discovery adds empirical evidence to recent literature in criminology and gender economics, indicating a nexus between gender inequality and homicide rates. We provide new explanations on how societies have solved the problem of violence and open new avenues of research on the use of archaeological proxies for addressing important topics in societies today.
    Keywords: violence, early medieval, state formation, gender equality, vikings, Scandinavia
    JEL: N00 N13 N33
    Date: 2021–01
  17. By: Dou Jiang (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Mark Weder (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University and CAMA)
    Abstract: This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were primarily caused by factors that affect the efficiency wedge, i.e. slumps in the economy’s factor productivity. Distortions to the labor wedge played a less important role. Models with financial market frictions that translate into the efficiency wedge are the most promising candidates for explaining the recessionary episodes.
    Keywords: Business cycles, Depression of the 1890s, Recession of 1907
    JEL: E32 E44 N11
    Date: 2020–01–06
  18. By: Jeffrey P. Clemens; Parker Rogers
    Abstract: We analyze wartime prosthetic device patents to investigate how demand and procurement policy can shape medical innovation. We use machine learning tools to develop new data describing the aspects of medical and mechanical innovations that are emphasized in patent documents. Our analysis of historical patents yields three primary facts. First, we find that the U.S. Civil War and World War I led to substantial increases in the quantity of prosthetic device patenting relative to patenting in other medical and mechanical technology classes. Second, we find that the Civil War led inventors to focus broadly on improving aspects of the production process, while World War I did not, consistent with the United States applying a more cost-conscious procurement model during the Civil War. Third, we find that inventors emphasized dimensions of product quality (e.g., a prosthetic’s appearance or comfort) that aligned with differences in buyers’ preferences, as described in the historical record, across wars. We conclude that procurement environments can significantly shape the scientific problems with which inventors engage, including the choice to innovate on quality or cost.
    Keywords: procurement, medical innovation, health care, health economics
    JEL: H57 I10 O31
    Date: 2020
  19. By: Li, Qi; Sarafidis, Vasilis; Westerlund, Joakim
    Abstract: This special issue celebrates Professor Badi Baltagi’s myriad contributions to the field of econometrics, as well as his long service to Empirical Economics. The influential work carried out by Badi during the past four decades or so is recognised in this issue by nineteen peer-reviewed, state-of-the-art articles, written by some of the leading researchers in econometrics. The diversity of the topics covered constitutes a testament to the wide-ranging scope of Badi's research interests and contributions. We believe we can speak on behalf of the community of econometric scholars when we express our gratitude for all the inspiring work Badi has contributed to the field. We look forward to many more years of his leadership and mentorship.
    Keywords: panel data, econometric theory and practice.
    JEL: C1 C23 C33 C5
    Date: 2020–12
  20. By: Don Bredin (University College Dublin); Stilianos Fountas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Christos Savva (Cyprus University of Technology)
    Abstract: We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth for Britain using data for eight centuries covering the 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on the economic history literature, we split the full sample period in four subperiods and use GARCH models to measure output growth uncertainty and estimate its e ect on average growth. Within each sub-sample we allow output growth to depend on the state of the system, e.g. 2-regime switching model would switch between high-growth and low-growth regimes. We find that the e ect of uncertainty on growth di ers depending on the existing growth regime. Low-growth regimes are associated with a negative e ect of uncertainty on growth, and medium or high-growth regimes are associated with a positive e ect. These findings are consistent across the four states of economic development. Our results indicate why the empirical literature to date has found mixed results when examining the e ect of uncertainty on growth.
    Keywords: output variability, output growth, GARCH models, regime switching.
    JEL: C22 C51 C52 E32
    Date: 2021–02
  21. By: Weihang Huang (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: New Zealand English is one of the newest English variants among native English speakers in New Zealand. However, details of its origins remains under debate, despite the consensus on Maori influence and the global picture of its history, and two questions are long-unsolved: what English variant(s) contribute(s) to the origin(s) of New Zealand English, and where New Zealand English is on the family tree of English variant. On these questions, previous studies give two different hypotheses, namely ?single-origin? and ?mixing-bowl?, neither of which however, is decisive. In this study, this two questions are re-investigated via phylogenetic reconstruction of English variants. By using data collected from Accents of English from Around the World database and Sound Comparisons, the phylogenetic tree of English dialects is constructed via Lingpy. The results shows that New Zealand English is exceptionally likely to be a ?mixing-bowl,? where Scottish English and American English and even South African English are among major contributors.
    Keywords: New Zealand English, language variant, phylogenetic reconstruction
  22. By: Ogasawara, Kota; Komura, Mizuki
    Abstract: This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio, and their impact on intra-household bargaining, on both the quantity and the quality of children. We first present the theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of con icting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male to female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children, but a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio, as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male to female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a lower decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970, in the absence of the decrease in the sex ratio.
    Keywords: quantity-quality trade-off of children,bargaining power,marriage mar- ket,sex ratio
    JEL: J11 J12 J13 J16 N15 N35
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Toptancı, Ali İskan
    Abstract: The global crisis and the reactions of countries to the crisis did not spread the 1930's weather conditions. This situation caused relief. However, it does not provide for policies that will slow down globalization and growth. The worldwide creeping has led to increased protectionism and more crises. New protectionism models are not similar to the developments in the 1970s and 1980s rather than the 1930s. Domestic crisis interventions in the capital and product markets and the return of America eventually led to the emergence of more defensive trade policies.
    Keywords: Economic Crisis,Trade Policies,Protectionism,Keynesian Economy
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Angel de la Fuente; Pep Ruiz Aguirre
    Abstract: En esta nota se describe la última actualización del módulo sectorial de la base de datos RegData FEDEA-BBVA. En este módulo se desagregan por sectores las series regionales de empleo (ocupados y asalariados), VAB a precios corrientes y constantes y remuneración de asalariados del módulo central RegData y se construyen deflactores regionales del VAB para cada sector, trabajando con una desagregación en seis grandes ramas productivas (extensible de forma tentativa a ocho). Las series comienzan en 1955 y se extienden hasta 2018 o 2019. La actualización de este año requiere el enlace de la versión anterior de RegData con las nuevas series de Contabilidad Regional de España (CRE) del INE, que comienzan en 2016.
    Date: 2021–01
  25. By: Mehdi El Herradi (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélien Leroy (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4)
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional e ects of monetary policy in 12 OECD economies between 1920 and 2016. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma with an external instrument approach to analyse how top income shares respond to monetary policy shocks. The results indicate that monetary tightening strongly decreases the share of national income held by the top one percent and vice versa for a monetary expansion, irrespective of the position of the economy. This e ect (i) holds for the top percentile and the ultra-rich (top 0.1% and 0.01% income shares), while (ii) it does not necessarily induce a decrease in income inequality when considering the entire income distribution. Our ndings also suggest that the e ect of monetary policy on top income shares is likely to be channeled via real asset returns.
    Keywords: monetary policy,top incomes,macroeconomic policy trilemma,external instrument
    Date: 2020–12–16
  26. By: Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development); Ginn, Thomas (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Countries restrict the overall extent of international travel and migration to balance the expected costs and benefits of mobility. Given the ever-present threat of new, future pandemics, how should permanent restrictions on mobility respond? A simple theoretical framework predicts that reduced exposure to pre-pandemic international mobility causes slightly slower arrival of the pathogen. A standard epidemiological model predicts no decrease in the harm of the pathogen if travel ceases thereafter and only a slight decrease in the harm (for plausible parameters) if travel does not cease. We test these predictions across four global pandemics in three different centuries: the influenza pandemics that began in 1889, 1918, 1957, and 2009. We find that in all cases, even a draconian 50 percent reduction in pre-pandemic international mobility is associated with 1–2 weeks later arrival and no detectable reduction in final mortality. The case for permanent limits on international mobility to reduce the harm of future pandemics is weak.
    Keywords: migration, pandemic, epidemic, disease, health, COVID-19, Coronavirus, flu, influenza, HIV, Zika, SARS, MERS, Spanish flu, Asian flu, Russian flu, Swine flu, H1N1, health systems, mortality, morbidity, mobility, movement, border, international, global, globalization
    JEL: H23 I18 J68
    Date: 2020–12
  27. By: Kozo Kiyota (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)
    Abstract: Shortly after Leamer (1980) found that the Leontief Paradox was based on a simple conceptual misunderstanding, Brecher and Choudhri (1982) argued that the fact that the United States exported labor services was, in itself, paradoxical because it is true if and only if its per-capita consumption is less than the world average. Surprisingly, however, no formal answer to this paradox has been provided for nearly four decades. This paper revisits this paradox and formally shows that the paradox can be resolved if the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model takes into account technology differences across countries and trade imbalance. In contrast, the paradox cannot be resolved even if the analysis takes into account quasi-homothetic preferences, the Armington home bias, or offshoring.
    Keywords: Leontief Paradox, Technology differences, Trade imbalance, Nonhomothetic preferences, Armington home bias, offshoring
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2020–10–07
  28. By: Jean-François Carpantier (corresponding member UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: This paper revisits the golden constant - the gold property of keeping a constant purchasing power - via a comparison with a set of 17 commodities (energy, metals, agricultural products). We first use graphical devices of the CPI-deflated commodity prices, then stationarity tests designed to assess how fast the real prices of the commodities revert to their “constant” and, finally, measurements of their convergence speed. We find that the real price of gold is far from a constant, farther than the real price of most other commodities. We also note that the mean reversion of gold real price to its constant/average is weaker and slower than for most other commodities. These findings suggest that most commodities do a better job than gold when it comes to keeping a constant purchasing power. A portfolio of commodities would provide a liquidity similar to gold, while offering to investors a more stable protection against inflation.
    Keywords: gold; inflation; safe haven; portfolio diversification; hedging; commodities
    JEL: C22 G10 G11 G15 N20
    Date: 2020–10–20
  29. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This research assesses the relevance of enhancing remittances on value added across economic sectors in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980 to 2014 using the Generalised Method of Moments. First, no significant net effects on added value to the agricultural sector are apparent. Second, enhancing remittances engenders a positive net effect on added value to the manufacturing sector. Third, there are negative net effects on added value to the service sector. Given that the unfavourable net incidence of remittances to the service sector is associated with a positive marginal or conditional effect, the analysis is extended by computing thresholds at which remittances induce net positive effects on added value to the service sector. The extended analysis shows that a remittance threshold of 48.5% of GDP is the critical mass needed for further enhancement of remittances to engender positive net effects on value added to the service sector.
    Keywords: Economic Output; Remitances; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: E23 F24 F30 O16 O55
    Date: 2021–01
  30. By: Rausser, Gordon; Stuermer, Martin
    Abstract: We advance a new framework for investigating the dynamic effects of collusion. In contrast to the standard reduced-form workhorse model, a structural vector auto-regressive model with sign restrictions allows us to endogenize cartel action and to distinguish unexpected market manipulations from other types of shocks. Utilizing a newly constructed monthly data set for the copper market from 1882 to 2016, we find that cartel action shocks have strong effects on price and output during collusive periods. More notably, these shocks have lessening, yet quite persistent impacts over the subsequent unwinding periods in which output damages dominate price damages.
    Keywords: Collusion, market distortions, economic damages, structural time series, commodity markets
    JEL: K2 L1 N5 Q02
    Date: 2020–12
  31. By: Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Isiaq O. Oseni (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria)
    Abstract: It is expected that fuel subsidy removal should hinder carbon emissions growth through low energy consumption channels amid higher energy prices. However, outliers in this theoretical disposition make empirical proof of the fuel subsidy-carbon intensity apt and primitive. Despite established fuel subsidy abolishment gains for climate and economic welfare, the relevance, magnitude and policy implications remain dimly. This paper employs the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation procedure to gauge the contemporaneous influence of fuel subsidy for carbon intensity in Nigeria. Findings revealed that fuel subsidy removal inversely relates to Nigeria's carbon emission in the short-run and long run. The study recommends complementary policy option that ensures additional financial savings to the government should be invested in public sector growth that can cushion the effect of relative income loss to the citizenry. The Nigerian government should ensure measures are kept in place to discourage over-consumption of alternative energy (for example, coal) that could also threaten the green economy paradox.
    Keywords: Fuel Subsidy, Carbon Emission, Non-linear ARDL, Nigeria
    JEL: C22 E31 N57 Q54
    Date: 2021–01

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