nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2021‒01‒11
fifty papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Auction Theory Evolving: Theorems and Applications By Milgrom, Paul R.
  2. Globalization and Empire: Market integration and international trade between Canada, the United States and Britain, 1750-1870 By Maja Uhre Pedersen; Vincent Geloso; Paul Sharp
  3. Predistribution vs. Redistribution: Evidence from France and the U.S By Antoine Bozio; Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Malka Guillot; Thomas Piketty
  4. Demographic Shocks and Wowen's Labor Market Participation: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in India By FENSKE, JAMES; GUPTA, BISHNUPRIYA; YUAN, AND SONG
  5. Jim Crow in the Saddle: The Expulsion of African American Jockeys from American Racing By Michael Leeds; Hugh Rockoff
  6. The Origins of Cognitive Skills and Non-cognitive Skills: The Long-Term Effect of in-Utero Rainfall Shocks in India By Chang, Grace; Favara, Marta; Novella, Rafael
  7. Electoral Cleavages and Socioeconomic Inequality in Germany 1949-2017 By Thomas Piketty; Fabian Kosse
  8. Foreign Direct Investment and Corruption in Egypt: A Cointegration Analysis By Eman Moustafa
  9. China's Great Boom as a Historical Process By Brandt, Loren; Rawski, Thomas G.
  10. Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks By Ernest Liu; Aleh Tsyvinski
  11. Life after default. Private and Official Deals By Silvia Marchesi; Tania Masi
  12. The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918–20: An interpretative survey in the time of COVID-19 By Prema-chandra Athukorala; Chaturica Athukorala
  13. Some reflections on the state of development economics in Asia By Hal Hill; Sisira Jayasuriya
  14. On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada By Olena Kostyshyna; Étienne Lalé
  15. International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand By Luca Benati; Robert E. Lucas Jr.; Juan Pablo Nicolini; Warren Weber
  16. Slavery and development in nineteenth century Brazil By Palma, Nuno; Papadia, Andrea; Pereira, Thales; Weller, Leonardo
  17. Technology Shocks and Predictable Minsky Cycles By Jean-Paul L’Huillier; Gregory Phelan; Hunter Wieman
  18. ?The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in the Democratic Republic of Congo: (Un)Invited guests? By Titeca, Kristof
  19. Credit Reversals By Vazquez, Francisco
  20. Initial Industry and Long-Term Earnings Growth By Stephen L. Ross; Patralekha Ukil
  21. Measuring stock market integration during the Gold Standard By Rebecca Stuart
  22. Protectionism and Economic Growth: Causal Evidence from the First Era of Globalization By Niklas Potrafke; Fabian Ruthardt; Kaspar Wüthrich; Fabian Ruthardt
  23. Optimal Road Network and the Gains from Intranational Trade By Dias, Lucas; Haddad, Eduardo; Maggi, Andrés
  24. The Effects of Currency Devaluation on Output Growth in Developing Economies with Currency Crises By Adebayo Mohammed, Ojuolape; H. Agboola, Yusuf; K. Moshood, Alabi; O. Abdullah, Oladipupo
  25. Epidemics, inequality and poverty in preindustrial and early industrial times By Alfani, Guido
  26. Have You Benefited From the Tax Reforms? The Distribution of Tax Payments in Sweden after Three Decades of Tax Changes By Hansson, Åsa
  27. ‘For King, for Freedom and for Justice’? Comments regarding Belgium’s Congo Commission By Marysse, Stefaan
  28. Why the Rich Stay Rich. On dysfunctional institutions’ “ability to persist” (no matter what) By Palma, J. G.
  29. Evolving from a rum state: Australia’s alcohol consumption By Kym Anderson
  30. The Legacy of the Missing Men: The Long-Run Impact of World War I on Female Labor Force Participation By Gay, Victor
  31. Inequality, Identity, and the Long-Run Evolution of Political Cleavages in Israel 1949-2019 By Yonatan Berman
  32. Reflections on Asia’s journey to prosperity By Hal Hill
  33. Does education matter? Tests from extensions of compulsory schooling in England and Wales 1919-21, 1947 and 1972 By Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil
  34. Social Inequality and the Dynamics of Political and Ethnolinguistic Divides in Pakistan, 1970-2018 By Amory Gethin,; Sultan Mehmood; Thomas Piketty
  35. Why Is Europe More Equal Than the United States? By Thomas Blanchet; Lucas Chancel; Amory Gethin
  36. The Columbian Exchange and conflict in Asia By Dincecco, Mark; Fenske, James; Menon, Anil
  37. David Ricardo, the Stock Exchange, and the Battle of Waterloo: Samuelsonian legends lack historical evidence By PARYS, Wilfried
  38. Cities in a world of diminishing transport costs By Tomoya Mori; Minoru Osawa
  39. Initial Public Offerings and Corporate Governance in Croatia By Domagoj Hru?ka; Dra?en Milkovi?; Maja Darabo? Longin
  40. Urban Mortality and the Repeal of Federal Prohibition By David S. Jacks; Krishna Pendakur; Hitoshi Shigeoka
  41. The Circular Economy: an Ancient Term that Became Polysemic By Isabel Mendes
  42. Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history By Mehdi El Herradi; Aurélien Leroy
  43. The Monetary Crisis and Foundation for Reserve Bank of India (1890-1935) By Balaji, M.; Institute of Research, Asian
  44. The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts By Emmanuel Saez; Gabriel Zucman
  45. Heroes and Villains: The Effects of Combat Heroism on Autocratic Values and Nazi Collaboration in France By Julia Cage; Anna Dagorret; Pauline Grosjean; Saumitra Jha
  46. Place-based SME finance policy and local industrial revivals: An empirical analysis of a directed credit program after WW2 By Takano, Keisuke; Okamuro, Hiroyuki
  47. Strategic Analysis of Auction Markets By Wilson, Robert B.
  48. Long-term effects of Agent Orange on health capital in Vietnam By Nobuaki Yamashita; Trong-Anh Trinh
  49. The rise of the service sector in the global economy By Owusu, Solomon; Szirmai, Adam; Foster-McGregor, Neil
  50. The rise of research on development economics in Vietnam: Analyses and implications for the public and policymakers from SSHPA 2008-2020 dataset By Ho, Manh-Toan

  1. By: Milgrom, Paul R. (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Paul R. Milgrom delivered his Prize Lecture on 7 December 2020. He was introduced by Professor Tore Ellingsen.
    Keywords: Auctions
    JEL: D44
    Date: 2020–12–07
  2. By: Maja Uhre Pedersen (University of Southern Denmark); Vincent Geloso (King's University College); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: Previous work has demonstrated the potential for wheat market integration between the US and the UK before the ‘first era of globalization’ in the second half of the nineteenth century. It was however frequently interrupted by policy and ‘exogenous’ events such as war. This paper adds Canada to this story by looking at trade and price data, as well as contemporary debates. We find that she faced similar barriers to the US, and that membership of the British Empire was therefore not a great benefit. We also describe the limitations she faced accessing the US market, in particular after American independence. Transportation costs do not appear to be the main barrier to the emergence of a globalized economy before around 1850.
    Keywords: British Empire, Canada, globalization, market integration, United Kingdom, United States, wheat
    JEL: N51 N53 N71 N73
    Date: 2020–12
  3. By: Antoine Bozio (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique [Bruz] - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz], WIL - World Inequality Lab); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Malka Guillot (ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich], IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: How much redistribution policies can account for long-run changes in inequality? To answer this question, we quantify the extent of redistribution over time by the percentage reduction from pretax to post-tax inequalities, and decompose the changes in post-tax inequalities into different redistributive policies and changes in pretax inequalities. To estimate these redistributive statistics, we construct homogenous annual series of post-tax national income for France over the 1900-2018 period, and compare them with those recently constructed for the U.S. We obtain three major findings. First, redistribution has increased in both countries over the period, earlier in the U.S., later in France, to reach similar levels today. Second, the substantial long-run decline in post-tax inequality in France over the 1900-2018 period is due mostly to the fall in pretax inequality (accounting for three quarters of the total decline), and to a lesser extent to the direct redistributive role of taxes, transfers and other public spending (about one quarter). Third, the reason why overall inequality is much smaller in France than in the U.S. is entirely due to differences in pretax inequality. These findings suggest that policy discussions on inequality should, in the future, pay more attention to policies affecting pretax inequality and should not focus exclusively on "redistribution".
    Date: 2020–10
    Abstract: How did the 1918 influenza pandemic affect female labor force participation in India over the short run and the medium run? We use an event-study approach at the district level and four waves of decadal census data in order to answer this question. We find that districts most adversely affected by infiuenza mortality saw a temporary increase in female labor force participation in 1921, an increase that was concentrated in the service sector. By 1931, this increase had been reversed. We find suggestive evidence that distress labor supply by widows and rising wages help account for these results.
    Keywords: Demographic shock, Female labor force participation, Cultural norms
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: Michael Leeds; Hugh Rockoff
    Abstract: Between the Civil War and the turn of the nineteenth century there were many prominent African American jockeys. They rode winners in all of the Triple-Crown races. But at the turn of the century they were forced out. This paper uses a new data set on the Triple-Crown races, which includes odds on all of the entrants in all of the races, to explore the causes of the expulsion of African American jockeys. Our conclusion is that although there is some evidence of prejudice by owners and the betting public – for the latter in the Kentucky Derby although not in the other legs of the Triple Crown – historical evidence indicates that the final push came from the White jockeys who were determined to “draw the color line.”
    JEL: N11 N3
    Date: 2020–12
  6. By: Chang, Grace (London School of Economics); Favara, Marta (University of Oxford); Novella, Rafael (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: Skills are an important predictor of labour, education, and wellbeing outcomes. Understanding the origins of skills formation is important for reducing future inequalities. This paper analyses the effect of shocks in-utero on human capital outcomes in childhood and adolescence in India. Combining historical rainfall data and longitudinal data from Young Lives, we estimate the effect of rainfall shocks in-utero on cognitive and non-cognitive skills development over the first 15 years of life. We find negative effects of rainfall shocks on receptive vocabulary at age 5, and on mathematics and non-cognitive skills at age 15. Also, shocks occurred after the first trimester are more detrimental for skills development. Our findings support the implementation of policies aiming at reducing inequalities at very early stages in life.
    Keywords: skills formation, in-utero, rainfall shocks, India
    JEL: J24 I14
    Date: 2020–12
  7. By: Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Fabian Kosse (LMU - Institut für Informatik [München/Munich] - LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)
    Abstract: This paper explores the changing relationships between party support, electoral cleavages and socioeconomic inequality in Germany since 1949. We analyze the link between voting behaviors and socioeconomic characteristics of voters. In the 1950s-1970s, the vote for left parties was strongly associated with lower education and lower income voters. Since the 1980s voting for left parties has become associated with higher education voters. In effect, intellectual and economic elites seem to have drifted apart, with high-education elites voting for the left and high-income elites voting for the right. We analyze how this process is related to the occurrence of new parties since 1980 and the recent rise of populism.
    Date: 2020–11–24
  8. By: Eman Moustafa (General Authority for Investment and Free Zones)
    Abstract: This paper uses a time series analysis to estimate the impact of corruption on FDI in Egypt during the period 1970-2019 and to address some of the drawbacks of the empirical literature. Unit root and cointegration tests are used to ensure stationarity and long run relationship among variables of interest. The results show a significant positive relationship between FDI and corruption in Egypt. Since corruption is not found to hinder FDI inflows, treating corruption should be based on sound legal procedures that infringe neither on the freedom of FDI nor on the degree of openness of the economy, which are the real stimulants of FDI in Egypt
    Date: 2020–12–20
  9. By: Brandt, Loren (University of Toronto); Rawski, Thomas G. (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: Beginning in the late 1970s, China's economy delivered the largest growth spurt in recorded history. Striking discontinuity between recent outcomes and the economic experience of the prior 200 years invites portrayal of recent events as a "China miracle" that requires neither economic nor historical analysis. This overlooks deep institutional constraints arising from authoritarian rule and its supporting elite networks and fails to recognize the link between central government weakness and the origins of the recent boom. In both the pre-1949 treaty ports and in the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution, the retreat of central control enabled episodes of economic openness and dynamism built upon 'bottom up' initiative and decentralized innovation. Historic legacies that shape political structures and individual behavior will continue to influence China's economic trajectory.
    Keywords: China, economic boom, growth constraints, authoritarian rule, elite networks, governmental weakness, innovation, productivity
    JEL: L2 N1 N4 O4 O5 P3
    Date: 2020–12
  10. By: Ernest Liu; Aleh Tsyvinski
    Abstract: We associate a dynamical system with input-output networks and study its spectral properties. Specifically, we develop a dynamic production network model featuring adjustment costs of changing inputs and thus gradual recovery from temporary TFP shocks. First, we explicitly solve for the output and welfare effects of temporary shocks. We show shocks to sectors that generate significant sales through distant linkages to the consumer are most damaging. Second, we eigendecompose the input-output matrix and show, because higher-order linkages take longer to recover, fewer eigenvectors are needed to represent the welfare impact of sectoral shocks in the dynamic economy compared to the Domar weights. Third, we analyze the U.S. input-output structure and show the welfare impact of temporary shocks has a low-dimensional, 4-factor structure (out of 171 eigenvectors). Finally, we revisit the historical use of input-output analysis in target selection for bombing Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan during WWII.
    JEL: E0 E23
    Date: 2020–12
  11. By: Silvia Marchesi; Tania Masi
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt default and annual GDP growth distinguishing between private and official deals. Using the Synthetic Control Method to analyze 23 official and private defaulters from 1970 to 2017, we find that private defaults generate output losses both during the crisis and persisting over time. Conversely, official defaulters do not show a permanent drop in GDP per capita, neither during the crisis nor in its aftermath. Using panel data analysis to control for the creditorsÂ’loss (haircut), we conÂ…rm that official and private defaults may have different effects on GDP growth.
    Keywords: Sovereign defaults, Output losses, Synthetic control method
    JEL: F34 G15 H63
    Date: 2020–02
  12. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala; Chaturica Athukorala
    Abstract: The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-20—commonly known as the Spanish flu—infected over a quarter of the world’s population and killed over 50 million people. It is by far the greatest humanitarian disaster caused by infectious disease in modern history. Epidemiologists and health scientists often draw on this experience to set the plausible upper bound (the ‘worst case scenario’) on future pandemic mortality. The purpose of this study is to piece together and analyse the scattered multi-disciplinary literature on the pandemic in order to place debates on the evolving course of the current COVID-19 crisis in historical perspective. The analysis focuses on the changing characteristics of pathogens and disease over time, the institutional factors that shaped the global spread, and the demographic and socio-economic consequences.
    Keywords: Spanish flu, COVID-19, pandemic, infectious
    JEL: F50 I10 O50 Z1
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Hal Hill; Sisira Jayasuriya
    Abstract: This paper reviews some salient aspects of the state of development economics, from the early post-war pioneers through the major 1989 Survey by Nicholas Stern, to contemporary experiences and lessons. The latter is illustrated with references to five South and Southeast Asian countries. While the techniques of economic analysis have become ever more sophisticated and the data bases larger and richer, significant analytical puzzles remain. The central question of why some countries perform well and others indifferently is still imperfectly understood. Because many factors – economic, political, institutional, as well as random events – shape countries’ development trajectories, country economic forecasting over the medium to longer run continues to be as much art as science.
    Keywords: development economics, history of economic thinking, Asia, Philippines, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Singapore
    JEL: B20 N15 O53
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Olena Kostyshyna; Étienne Lalé
    Abstract: The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased spectacularly in Canada since the mid-1970s – it has been multiplied by almost three. In this paper, we document this historical change and provide a comprehensive account of its dynamics. To this end, we use restricted-access panel micro-data from the Canadian labour force survey to construct transition probabilities in and out of multiple jobholding. We analyze these data through the lens of a trend decomposition that separates out the role of worker inflows and outflows. The upward trend in multiple jobholding is chiefly explained by the increased likelihood of single jobholders to pick up second jobs. While economic reasons remain important among the motives that push workers towards multiple jobholding, a more flexible hours schedule in the main job may explain why taking on a second job has become more frequent.
    Keywords: Multiple Jobholding,Worker Flows,Long-run Trends,Business Cycles,
    JEL: E24 J21 J22 J60
    Date: 2020–12–22
  15. By: Luca Benati; Robert E. Lucas Jr.; Juan Pablo Nicolini; Warren Weber
    Abstract: We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 38 countries and relatively long sample periods, extending in some cases to over a century. The evidence supports the existence of a stable long-run relationship between the ratio of M1 to GDP and a short-term interest rate for a large majority of the countries. The log-log specification provides a good characterization of the data, with the exception of periods featuring very low interest rates. An extension of the theory that imposes limits on the amount households can borrow results in a truncated log-log specification, which is in line with what we observe in the data. We estimate the interest rate elasticity to be between 0.3 and 0.6
    Keywords: Long-run money demand, Cointegration
    Date: 2020–12
  16. By: Palma, Nuno (University of Manchester; ICS, Universidade de Lisboa; CEPR); Papadia, Andrea (University of Bonn); Pereira, Thales (São Paulo School of Economics/FGV); Weller, Leonardo (São Paulo School of Economics/FGV)
    Abstract: This paper brings new evidence on the legacy of slavery to economic development through the case study of Brazil during the nineteenth century. The conclusions contribute to the debate brought by the New History of Capitalism (NHC) about the role of slavery and industrialization in the United States. We argue that the NHC lacks a comparative perspective. Brazil imported more slaves than any other country in the world and slavery lasted longer and was more widespread than in the U.S. south. Rather than promoting economic growth and development, the evidence shows that slavery held back industrialization in Brazil. We also discuss the role of slavery on agricultural productivity and show that, as in the U.S. the use of violence does not explain increases in the productivity of cotton plantations.
    Keywords: Slavery, Comparative History, New History of Capitalism JEL Classification:
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Jean-Paul L’Huillier (Brandeis University); Gregory Phelan (Williams College); Hunter Wieman (Williams College)
    Abstract: Big technological improvements in a new, secondary sector lead to a period of excitement about the future prospects of the overall economy, generating boom-bust dynamics propagating through credit markets. Increased future capital prices relax collateral constraints today, leading to a boom before the realization of the shock. But reallocation of capital toward the secondary sector when the shock hits leads to a bust going forward. These cycles are perfectly foreseen in our model, making them markedly different from the typical narrative about unexpected financial shocks used to explain crises. In fact, these cycles echo Minsky’s original narrative for financial cycles, according to which “financial trauma occur as normal functioning event in a capitalistic economy.”(Minsky, 1980)
    Keywords: Endogenous cycles, boom-bust dynamics, optimism, credit markets, predictability.
    JEL: E22 E23 E32 E44
    Date: 2021–01
  18. By: Titeca, Kristof
    Abstract: While much has been written about the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), hardly any analysesfocus on the rebel group’s activities in (northeastern) Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – althoughthe rebel group conducted some of the biggest massacres in its history in the country, and continuesto be active there. This analysis focusses on a consistent claim which is made among many actors inthe DRC: that the LRA was invited, and supported, by the Congolese authorities. This analysis reviewsthis claim, by zooming in on the available evidence, such as the circumstances in which the rebelgroup arrived in the country. It concludes that, while freelancing individuals indeed might havebrokered such an agreement, institutional Congolese government support to the LRA was (mostprobably) not the case. Yet, it shows the murky circumstances which allowed such claims to emerge,involving war entrepreneurs, freelancing government officials, ineffective protection, and agovernment more interested in state security rather than human security.
    Keywords: Lord's Resistance Army; DR Congo; DRC; Democratic Republic of the Congo
    Date: 2020–11
  19. By: Vazquez, Francisco
    Abstract: This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity—credit reversals. Using data for 179 countries during 1960‒2017, the paper finds that reversals are a relatively common phenomenon--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals and banking crises also appear related to each other: reversals become more likely in the aftermath of banking crises, while the likelihood of crises drops following reversals. Reversals are shown to be very costly in terms of foregone economic activity—about two-thirds of the costs of banking crises, after taking into account their relative frequencies.
    Keywords: Credit reversals, credit booms, credit crunches, credit cycles, banking crises, financial stability
    JEL: E32 E44 E51 G01 G21
    Date: 2020–12–21
  20. By: Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut); Patralekha Ukil (San Jose State University)
    Abstract: We test whether employment growth of male worker’s initial industry influences earnings growth using the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We follow workers for 20 years after reporting their first industry finding that lower employment growth in initial industry implies substantially lower earnings growth. Notably, after controlling for observable skills, controls for family background and region have no impact on estimates. Effects appear larger for initial occupations that involve more routine or manual tasks, as well as for occupations that involve less abstract tasks, but these differences are not statistically significant.
    Keywords: Industry, Earnings Growth, Employment Growth, Early Life Choices, Routine Tasks
    JEL: J2 J3 O3
    Date: 2021–01
  21. By: Rebecca Stuart
    Abstract: This paper uses a broad geographical sample to investigate stock market integration during the classical Gold Standard. It is novel in estimating 'global components' of stock market returns, using methods proposed by Volosovych (2011), Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009) and Ciccarelli and Mojon (2010). Contrary to the existing literature, all three measures suggest that integration increased during the first decades of the Gold Standard before levelling off thereafter. However, a comparison with more recent data suggests the level of integration was low compared to today. The results are robust to alternative formulations of the global component and alternative measures of returns.
    Keywords: stock returns, principal components analysis, Gold Standard.
    JEL: G1 N2
    Date: 2021–01
  22. By: Niklas Potrafke; Fabian Ruthardt; Kaspar Wüthrich; Fabian Ruthardt
    Abstract: We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the synthetic control method to select control countries against which economic growth in Sweden can be compared. We do not find evidence suggesting that protectionist policies influenced economic growth and examine channels why. Tariffs increased government revenue. However, the results do not suggest that the protectionist government stimulated the economy in the short-run by increasing government expenditure.
    Keywords: protectionism, economic growth, first era of globalization, synthetic control method, causal inference
    JEL: C33 D72 F10 F13 N10 O11
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Dias, Lucas (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Haddad, Eduardo (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Maggi, Andrés (Harvard University)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the efficiency of the Brazilian road network using data on road speeds and distances and a spatial general equilibrium model with costly trade. We find that Brazil would gain 0.31% of welfare if better organize its road network for intranational trade and that the most populated regions are relatively oversupplied of transport infrastructure compared with the remote and poor areas. We further find long lasting effects of the highways’ project designed to integrate Brasília with the rest of the country in the 1960s. Regions connected by the so-called Radial Highways are currently oversupplied of transport infrastructure.
    Keywords: Optimal Road Network; Intranational Trade
    JEL: F10 O18 R40
    Date: 2021–01–06
  24. By: Adebayo Mohammed, Ojuolape (University of Ilorin,); H. Agboola, Yusuf (University of Ilorin,); K. Moshood, Alabi (University of Ilorin,); O. Abdullah, Oladipupo (University of Ilorin,)
    Abstract: Currency devaluation is an important topic in the history of international economics and finance. It has proved to impact positively on some economies’ growth and negatively on others. This study focuses on the real effects of devaluing the currency in short and long run using panel data analysis. Seven countries were examined, these are; Ghana, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore and South Africa. These countries devalued their currencies within the same period under consideration. The long run effects and relationships were determined by testing for co-integration using different co-integration methods, and the short run effect was determined using the Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and the Error Correction Model. A panel data covering the period between 1981- 2010, was used in the analysis.The empirical results show the existence of no significant relationship between currency devaluation and output growth in the short run and a negative relationship between currency devaluation and economic growth in the long run.
    Date: 2020–12–27
  25. By: Alfani, Guido (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by Covid-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from Justinian’s Plague of 540-41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution towards the poor, or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards.
    Keywords: JEL Classification: D31, D63, I14, I30, J11, N30, N33
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Hansson, Åsa (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: Thirty years ago, the Swedish tax system underwent a major reform. Since then there have been many changes to the tax system, and the general level of tax revenues has declined by over five percentage points of GDP. The decline in total revenues does not necessarily translate into an evenly distributed decline for taxpayers. This paper studies how tax payments have changed in Sweden since the major tax reform over income distribution, sex, age, and geographical location. The results show that individuals at the bottom and very top of the income distribution have benefited disproportionally more from lower taxes. Labor tax payments as share of labor income have increased across the income distribution and particularity so for middle- and high-income earners.
    Keywords: Tax burden; tax distribution; tax reform
    JEL: D63 H23 H24
    Date: 2020–12–10
  27. By: Marysse, Stefaan
    Abstract: In the wake of the ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement, outrage in Belgium also flares up about the country’s role in its former colonies. It would indeed be good if Belgium could come to terms with its colonial past and face up to its own blind spots of discrimination. Hence the question mark in the reference to our national anthem in the title... In this slipstream of world-wide indignation, the African diaspora is also denouncing discrimination in our society today. In order to bridge the gap between word and deed, following the expressions of regret by King Philippe, the Belgian Parliament has now also taken the initiative and set up a Congo committee to investigate how this can be done . Are expressions of regret from the Belgian government, or from the King about the role of his ancestor, enough? Who should they be addressed to? To the authorities of today’s Congo, that are not working convincingly on the present? To the population, then? But is this not too vague and non-committal? How is reparation for injustice done even possible? Is there, then, a need for reparations? Has only damage been done, and how do you account for this? If so, how much and who should be compensated?
    Keywords: DR Congo; DRC; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Belgium; colonialism; decolonisation
    Date: 2020–11
  28. By: Palma, J. G.
    Abstract: This paper returns to the Ricardian tradition of understanding the distribution of income as the outcome of the political articulation of conflict between rentiers, capitalists, bureaucrats and labour -in which history, politics and institutions matter as much (if not more) than economic ‘fundamentals’. Also, in this tradition economic underperformance arises mostly from the shift in distribution from operating profits to rents. The focus is on a key political economy question: why the rich stay rich, no matter what! This confirms the iron law of oligarchies: dysfunctional institutions tend to rebuild. In the case of Latin America, its élites' “ability to persist” relates to the fact that they have been able to enforce a “Southern-style” rule resembling a ‘stationary process’, whereby the unbalancing impact of shocks tends to have only limited life-spans -as oligarchies are able to landscape new scenarios to continue achieving their fairly immutable rent-seeking goals. They have used three main channels: forcing ‘Buchanan’-style constitutional and legal straitjackets to restrict the scope of change; resourcefulness and collective action for reengineering their distributional strategies to suit the new scenarios, and cleverly absorbing elements of opposing ideologies (such as now accepting the need for ‘social protection’) to maintain theirs hegemonic. Their trump cards are ruthlessness in the first, and “jogo de cintura e jeitinho” (fancy footwork) in the other two. The analysis of these channels is the main subject of this paper
    Keywords: income distribution, inequality, poverty, Palma ratio, “reverse catching-up”, ideology, Gramsci, Foucault, neo-liberalism, ‘new’ left, institutional persistence, Latin America, Chile, emerging Asia, US, Western Europe
    JEL: D31 E12 E22 E24 N16 N36 O50 P16
    Date: 2020–12–18
  29. By: Kym Anderson
    Abstract: Europeans settlers in the Australian colonies had a reputation of being heavy drinkers. Rum dominated during the first few decades, followed by beer. It took until the 1970s before Australia’s annual per capita consumption of wine exceeded 10 litres, and even then wine represented only one-fifth of national alcohol consumption. But over the next two decades per capita wine consumption nearly trebled and beer consumption shrunk – the opposite of what happened to global alcohol consumption shares. This paper draws on newly compiled datasets (a) to reveal that Australia was not much more alcoholic than Britain or southern Europe during the nineteenth century and (b) to help explain why it took so long for a consumer interest in wine to emerge in Australia.
    Keywords: Alcohol beverage consumption mix; Beverage consumption intensity index; Wine globalization
    JEL: D12 E20 F14
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Gay, Victor
    Abstract: This article explores the pathways that underlie the diffusion of women’s participation in the labor force across generations. I exploit a severe exogenous shock to the sex ratio, World War I in France, which generated a large inflow of women in the labor force after the war. I show that this shock to female labor transmitted to subsequent generations until today. Three mechanisms of intergenerational transmission account for this result: parental transmission, transmission through marriage, and transmission through local social interactions. Beyond behaviors, the war also permanently altered beliefs toward the role of women in the labor force.
    Keywords: Female labor force participation; World War I; Sex ratio; Intergenerational transmission; Gender norms
    Date: 2021–01–07
  31. By: Yonatan Berman (LML - London Mathematical Laboratory)
    Abstract: This paper draws on pre-and post-election surveys to address the long run evolution of voting patterns in Israel from 1949 to 2019. The heterogeneous ethnic, cultural, educational, and religious backgrounds of Israelis created a range of political cleavages that evolved throughout its history and continue to shape its political climate and its society today. Despite Israel's exceptional characteristics, we find similar patterns to those found for France, the UK and the US. Notably, we find that in the 1960s-1970s, the vote for left-wing parties was associated with lower social class voters. It has gradually become associated with high social class voters during the late 1970s and later. We also find a weak interrelationship between inequality and political outcomes, suggesting that despite the social class cleavage, identity-based or "tribal" voting is still dominant in Israeli politics.
    Keywords: Political cleavages,Political economy,Income inequality,Israel
    Date: 2020–08
  32. By: Hal Hill
    Abstract: The Asian Development Bank is the premier financial development institution for the Asia Pacific region. To commemorate its first half-century, it has released a major study of the economic development of its 46 developing member countries, Asia’s Journey to Prosperity. It is arguably the most comprehensive analytical survey of the region’s socio-economic development over this period. This paper reviews the volume.
    Keywords: Asian Development Bank, Asia Pacific economies, economic development
    JEL: F02 F63 N15 O53
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil
    Abstract: Schooling and social outcomes correlate strongly. But are these connections causal? Previous papers for England using compulsory schooling to identify causal effects have produced conflicting results. Some found significant effects of schooling on adult longevity and on earnings, others found no effects. Here we measure the consequence of extending compulsory schooling in England to ages 14, 15 and 16 in the years 1919-22, 1947 and 1972. From administrative data these increases in compulsory schooling added 0.43, 0.60 and 0.43 years of education to the affected cohorts. We estimate the effects of these increases in schooling for each cohort on measures of adult longevity, on dwelling values in 1999 (an index of lifetime incomes), and on the the social characteristics of the places where the affected cohorts died. Since we have access to all the vital registration records, and a nearly complete sample of the 1999 electoral register, we find with high precision that all the schooling extensions failed to increase adult longevity (as had been found previously for the 1947 and 1972 extensions), dwelling values, or the social status of the communities people die in. Compulsory schooling ages 14-16 had no effect, at the cohort level, on social outcomes in England.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–12
  34. By: Amory Gethin, (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Sultan Mehmood (Aix-Marseille School of Economics [Aix-Marseille Université] - Centre de la Vieille Charité [Aix-Marseille Université] - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This study documents the changing structure of Pakistan's political cleavages by making use of a unique set of exit polls covering every direct election held in the country between 1970 and 2018. We analyze the evolution of the party system, beginning with the initial economic "left-right" opposition between the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muslim Leage. Regionalist, ethnolinguistic and religious divides have weakened and transformed this party system. The decline of the PPP has come with its transformation from a lowincome mass-based party to an ethnic party confined to Sindhi speakers. We also analyze the recent rise of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and the role played by the political unification of the various economic, religious and military elites in its success. Finally, we discuss how the Islamization policies implemented under the military regime of Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988) have contributed to weaken the development of a pro-redistribution secularist coalition.
    Date: 2020–08
  35. By: Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab , PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucas Chancel; Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab , PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We combine all available household surveys, income tax and national accounts data in a systematic manner to produce comparable pretax and posttax income inequality series in 38 European countries between 1980 and 2017. Our estimates are consistent with macroeconomic growth rates and comparable with US Distributional National Accounts. We find that inequalities rose in most European countries since 1980 both before and after taxes, but much less than in the US. Between 1980 and 2017, the European top 1% pretax income share rose from 8% to 11% while it rose from 11% to 21% in the US. Europe's lower inequality levels are mainly explained by a more equal distribution of pretax incomes rather than by more equalizing taxes and transfers systems. "Predistribution" is found to play a much larger role in explaining Europe's relative resistance to inequality than "redistribution": it accounts for between two-thirds and
    Date: 2020–09
  36. By: Dincecco, Mark (University of Michigan); Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Menon, Anil (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: Difference in difference and event study analyses in a panel of Asian grid cells over nine centuries demonstrate that greater agricultural potential due to New World crops increased violent conflict after 1500. Rising caloric potential in a typical grid cell increased conflict by roughly its mean. The result holds across several New World crops and conflict types. It is largely driven by South Asia, a densely populated, diverse region with several competing historical states. The evidence supports a rapacity effect – increases in the gains from appropriation to Asian and non-Asian belligerents – as a mechanism. Population density, urbanization, and British imperialism significantly mediate the impact of the Columbian Exchange.
    Date: 2020
  37. By: PARYS, Wilfried
    Abstract: Samuelson and numerous other authors have presented colourful stories about how David Ricardo became the richest economist in history. The Samuelsonian legends suggest that Ricardo was an extreme risk-taker, especially in the period of the Battle of Waterloo (June 1815), that he used inside information and market manipulation, and that his decision to retire was caused by his big “Waterloo profits” in 1815. The often-quoted Ricardo obituary in The Sunday Times suggested that Ricardo upon this single occasion “netted upwards of a million sterling”. After consulting relevant archival material in the Bank of England, the Guildhall Library and the Metropolitan Archives in London, the Ricardo Papers and the Sraffa Papers in Cambridge, I conclude that many tales on Ricardo lack historical evidence. To develop my criticism of some widespread narratives, it is first necessary to describe the specific position of Ricardo in the world of finance, especially with respect to the typical characteristics of the Stock Exchange in London during Ricardo’s business career. Already in 1795, two years after starting his own business there, Ricardo could afford a wealthy lifestyle. The Stock Ledgers in the Bank of England show how Ricardo quickly became one of the top dealers on the Stock Exchange, where his unusually large number of transactions as a jobber created considerable total profits, generated by multiplying a small average profit per day by a few thousand working days in his business career. Ricardo also served on various committees of the Stock Exchange, trying to improve its moral principles, and defending the interests of its members. Several examples show that his own standards at the Stock Exchange were much more integer than average. From 1806 on, Ricardo could participate in biddings for the large Loans of the British government, which was possible only for a few financiers of excellent moral and financial standing. Ricardo acted as the financially most important partner in a consortium that included John Barnes and James Steers. Sraffa and others have signalled the existence of an open detective problem about the name of the unknown fourth member in this consortium. To solve this problem, I draw attention to the Minutes of the Stock Exchange, some genealogical sources, the diaries of Joseph Farington, and a neglected 1806 letter from John Barnes to potential subscribers of the 1806 Loan. This leads to overwhelming evidence that the unknown fourth man is Charles Steers, a brother of James Steers. Ricardo was a co-contractor for seven big British Loans (1807, 1811, 1812, June 1813, November 1813, 1814, 1815) and a small Irish Loan (1807). All these Loans started with a positive premium. Ricardo made some big gains from several Loans, especially from 1812 on, when the Loans were large and profitable for him and for a few other top financiers. On these occasions Ricardo’s small or medium rates of profits on a large investment generated large total profits. His correspondence shows that he often preferred to sell a large part of his Loan share rather quickly, and that he was “contented” with the results of his cautious strategy, even when he noticed more profitable prices one or two weeks after his sales. Samuelson’s story about the extreme difference between Ricardo’s and Malthus’s attitude to risk in 1815 is exaggerated. I also show that, contrary to Sraffa’s and Heertje’s information, the 1815 Loan was taken by only two consortia, not four. Contrary to Samuelson’s claims, it is evident that Ricardo possessed no early information about the defeat of Napoleon at Waterloo. Otherwise it is inexplicable that Ricardo sold part of his Omnium at 3 to 5 percent premium, just before the premium rose further when the official news from Waterloo reached London. There is no archival evidence for legends about Ricardo’s “million of Waterloo profits” in 1815 or for strikingly similar myths about Nathan Mayer Rothschild. Probably the year 1813 also deserves special attention. In 1813 Britain borrowed much more than ever, £49 million, spread over a Loan in June and one in November. Both these 1813 Loans reached much higher maximum premiums than the Waterloo Loan of 1815. The sum of the profits of the two 1813 Loans might have encouraged Ricardo to start making plans in 1813 for his retirement. His Waterloo gains were a substantial bonus, but without this bonus Ricardo would not have changed his retirement plans. In the Appendix of my paper I present various relevant statistical tables. They form an essential part of my study, because the exact data are often ignored or misrepresented. For example, many authors reproduce the same wrong numbers for the critical years 1814-1815-1816, often due to errors in the statistical tables of the standard works by Mitchell (1988) and by Homer & Sylla (2005). I claim that the origin of these errors can ultimately be traced back to deficient tables in the Nash edition of Fenn’s Compendium of 1883, and I try to provide more reliable financial data by using the main newspapers and magazines from the early 19th century.
    Keywords: David Ricardo, Paul Samuelson, Piero Sraffa, London Stock Exchange, British Loans
    JEL: B12 B31 N23
    Date: 2020–12
  38. By: Tomoya Mori; Minoru Osawa
    Abstract: Economic activities favor mutual geographical proximity and concentrate spatially to form cities. In a world of diminishing transport costs, however, the advantage of physical proximity is fading, and the role of cities in the economy may be declining. To provide insights into the long-run evolution of cities, we analyzed Japan's census data over the 1970--2015 period. We found that fewer and larger cities thrived at the national scale, suggesting an eventual mono-centric economy with a single megacity; simultaneously, each larger city flattened out at the local scale, suggesting an eventual extinction of cities. We interpret this multi-scale phenomenon as an instance of pattern formation by self-organization, which is widely studied in mathematics and biology. However, cities' dynamics are distinct from mathematical or biological mechanisms because they are governed by economic interactions mediated by transport costs between locations. Our results call for the synthesis of knowledge in mathematics, biology, and economics to open the door for a general pattern formation theory that is applicable to socioeconomic phenomena.
    Date: 2020–12
  39. By: Domagoj Hru?ka (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Dra?en Milkovi? (University Hospital Centre Zagreb); Maja Darabo? Longin (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the performance of Croatian initial public offerings (IPOs) throughout 20 years period. Besides financial benefit in the form of raising capital, IPOs also play a role in an increased public awareness of the company. By proving the comprehensive evaluation of reasons and consequences of IPO initiatives in Croatia we give analytic evidence on the influence of this corporate action on development of corporate governance. Furthermore, the paper discusses relation between internal and external corporate governance mechanisms in companies that initialize entering the financial markets for the first time, providing us with the analytical framework of understanding the impact on IPOs on corporate governance system in transition countries.
    Keywords: Corporate governance, Initial Public Offering, Croatia, Transition Economies
    JEL: G10 G34 M10
  40. By: David S. Jacks; Krishna Pendakur; Hitoshi Shigeoka
    Abstract: Federal prohibition from 1920 to 1933 was one of the most ambitious policy interventions in US history. However, due to the political concessions necessary to bring about repeal, the removal of restrictions on alcohol after 1933 was not uniform. Using new data on city-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1936, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition affected multiple causes of urban (non-infant) mortality. We find that city-level repeal is associated with a 14.7% decrease in homicide rates and a 10.1% decrease in mortality rates associated with other accidents (including accidental poisonings). Thus, the repeal of federal prohibition could have led to an annual reduction of as many as 3,400 urban deaths. Combined with previous results showing large increases in infant mortality, this suggests that nonetheless repeal most likely had negative effects on all-cause mortality and, thereby, public health in the US.
    JEL: H73 I18 J1 N3
    Date: 2020–12
  41. By: Isabel Mendes
    Abstract: Today, Circular Economy (EC) is a popular concept in the business and financial world, among academics, politicians and decision-making bodies, and governmental and non-governmental institutions. Since 2003 has been intensely produced and published academic and non-academic literature. But despite this growing enthusiasm - and as far as we know so far - there are topics related to EC that remain under discussion, perhaps because they have not yet been the subject of sufficiently clarifying and multidisciplinary analysis. In this article, we intend to contribute to the clarification of some of these topics. The topics were chosen according to the questions that were installed in the author's mind of this article as she reviewed the literature on EC (the scientific areas in which the author is included are Environment and Natural Resources Economics and Ecological Economy). The topics under discussion are as follows: 1) Neoclassical economists also use the EC concept; will this be equal to the current concept of EC? 2) Some authors have argued that EC is an entirely new concept; however, the circular functioning of the economy was already described by economists in the 18th century. In the end, we want to demonstrate: 1) That EC is a polysemic term; that is, although the EC of neoclassical economists is different from the current EC, both share a common root: circularity; 2) The term EC is not new because its genesis lies in the 18th century; 3) the current concept of EC is also not new, because it has been described since the 1960s; 4) What is truly new in today's EC is the recognition and internalization of its principles by the business and governmental worlds. To achieve our objective, we were based on the critical analysis of the literature, supported by the theoretical body of conventional neoclassical economics (micro and macro); Ecological and Environmental Economy; and the History of Economic Thought.
    Keywords: circular economy; circular model of monetary flows; circular throughput model; linear throughput model. JEL Classification: A13, O11, O13, O41, O44, Q01, Q50, Q57.
    Date: 2020–10
  42. By: Mehdi El Herradi (; Aurélien Leroy (LAREFI, University of Bordeaux, Pessac, France)
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional e ects of monetary policy in 12 OECD economies between 1920 and 2016. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma with an external instrument approach to analyse how top income shares respond to monetary policy shocks. The results indicate that monetary tightening strongly decreases the share of national income held by the top one percent and vice versa for a monetary expansion, irrespective of the position of the economy. This e ect (i) holds for the top percentile and the ultra-rich (top 0.1% and 0.01% income shares), while (ii) it does not necessarily induce a decrease in income inequality when considering the entire income distribution. Our ndings also suggest that the e ect of monetary policy on top income shares is likely to be channeled via real asset returns.
    Keywords: monetary policy, top incomes, macroeconomic policy trilemma, external instrument
    JEL: E25 E42 E52
    Date: 2020–12
  43. By: Balaji, M.; Institute of Research, Asian
    Abstract: The monetary policy of British India was highly controversial during the interwar period as it aimed to protect the budgetary obligations and private commerce. The currency stabilization policy was seen as a tool to protect the British economic interest while they ruled India. The currency came under serious pressure during the World War I and Great depression, the facets of Indian currency’s dependence was exposed through the modified council bill system and Gold exchange standard. The much-needed currency reforms and banking system were conceded by the colonial administration after much wrangling for half a century.
    Date: 2020–12–12
  44. By: Emmanuel Saez (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Gabriel Zucman (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California)
    Abstract: This paper studies inequality in America through the lens of distributional macroeconomic accounts-comprehensive distributions of the aggregate amount of income and wealth recorded in the o cial macroeconomic accounts of the United States. We use these distributional macroeconomic accounts to quantify the rise of income and wealth concentration since the late 1970s, the change in tax progressivity, and the direct redistributive e↵ects of government intervention in the economy. Between 1978 and 2018, the share of pre-tax income earned by the top 1% rose from 10% to about 19% and the share of wealth owned by the top 0.1% rose from 7% to about 18%. In 2018, the tax system was regressive at the top-end; the top 400 wealthiest Americans paid a lower average tax rate than the macroeconomic tax rate of 29%. We confront our methods and findings with those of other studies, pinpoint the areas where more research is needed, and describe how additional data collection could improve inequality measurement.
    Date: 2020–09
  45. By: Julia Cage (Département d'économie); Anna Dagorret (Stanford University); Pauline Grosjean (University of New South Wales (UNSW)); Saumitra Jha (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Can heroes legitimize strongly-proscribed and repugnant political behaviors? We exploit the purposefully arbitrary rotation of French regiments to measure the legitimizing effects of heroic credentials. 53% of French line regiments happened to rotate under a specific general, Philippe Pétain, during the pivotal WWI battle of Verdun (1916). Using recently declassified intelligence data on 95,314 individuals, we find the home municipalities of regiments serving under Pétain at Verdun raised 7% more Nazi collaborators during the Pétain led Vichy regime (1940-44). The effects are similar across joining Fascist parties, German forces, paramilitaries that hunted Jews and the Resistance, and collaborating economically. These municipalities also increasingly vote for right-wing parties between the wars. The voting effects persist after WWII, becoming particularly salient during social crises. We argue these results reflect the complementary role of the heroes of Verdun in legitimizing and diffusing the authoritarian values of their former leader.
    Keywords: Heroes; Leaders; Democratic Values; Autocracy; Identity; Networks; Votes; Legitimacy
    JEL: D74 N44 L14
    Date: 2020–12
  46. By: Takano, Keisuke; Okamuro, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This paper examined the effects on the performance of local SMEs of a modernization fund program for small business enterprises implemented by Osaka Prefecture in the early 1950s. Utilizing firm-level panel data based on business credit reports, we empirically evaluated the effects of the program. We found an improvement in production levels among the recipients. In addition, recipients in sectors related to munitions production or in industrial agglomerations specialized in these sectors achieved additional or larger improvements in their production levels.
    Keywords: place-based policy, postwar revival, directed credit, modernization, Osaka
    JEL: H84 N95 O12 R51 R58
    Date: 2020–10
  47. By: Wilson, Robert B. (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Robert B. Wilson delivered his Prize Lecture on 7 December 2020. He was introduced by Professor Tore Ellingsen.
    Keywords: Auctions;
    JEL: D44
    Date: 2020–12–07
  48. By: Nobuaki Yamashita; Trong-Anh Trinh
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-term health effects of Agent Orange—the military herbicide containing the hazardous chemical compound dioxin—which was widely disseminated in South Vietnam during the Vietnam War (1959–1975). Based on data from the US military archives on the herbicide operations, we estimate the prevalence of disabilities among Vietnamese people using the 2009 Population Census. The results demonstrate that the legacy of Agent Orange continues, with ongoing adverse (although small) effects on health even over 30 years since the end of the war. Critically, the health burden of severe mobility disability has been mostly born by women of ethnic minorities in the affected areas.
    Keywords: Vietnam War, Agent Orange, health effects of war, public health
    JEL: I14 I15 J15
    Date: 2020
  49. By: Owusu, Solomon (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Szirmai, Adam (UNU-MERIT); Foster-McGregor, Neil (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: The paper takes a two-pronged approach to examine the implications of the rapid rise of the service sector in the economies of the world. First, it analyses tertiarization in the global economy touching on key issues such as Baumol's hypothesis of a stagnant service sector, the contribution of the service sector to aggregate productivity growth, and the potentially positive contributions of services to other sectors. The second half of the paper focuses on tertiarization trends in sub-Saharan Africa, representing the role of the service sector in low-income economies. Using a long series of sectoral employment and output data, IO tables and multiple statistical analysis, we find that perceptions of services as stagnant and productivity resistant do not apply to all service sub-sectors. Productivity growth in modern, dynamic, and tradable services is equal to or higher than that in manufacturing and other sectors. These service sectors are innovative and might act as new or alternative engines of growth alongside manufacturing. The manufacturing sector in Africa still generates the strongest multipliers, including to market services. However, much of the manufacturing linkages are captured by foreign countries. While the multipliers in market services are relatively lower than those of manufacturing, they are comparable to those in many other regions of the world economy and more of the gains are captured by domestic firms which could encourage a self-reinforcing pattern of market service development. We also find robust evidence of strong inter-sectoral linkages between the service sector and manufacturing. Given the sector’s mutually reinforcing interaction with the manufacturing sector, the growing service sector could potentially play a significant complementary role in the prospects for industrialization of Africa. But this potential remains to be realized.
    Keywords: Service Sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, Global Economy, Structural Change, Technological Change, Baumol’s Hypothesis
    JEL: O11 O14 O33 O41 O47 C67 N17
    Date: 2020–12–16
  50. By: Ho, Manh-Toan (Thanh Tay University Hanoi)
    Abstract: Over three decades of economic reform since 1986, Vietnam has gone from one of the poorest in the world to a lower-middle-income country. To bring the economy to the next level, science and technology development has been viewed as one of the major instruments with various new policies being introduced since 2008. Consequently, scientific publications have become an important intellectual resource. The field of development economic research also benefits from the focus on science and technology. Yet, little is known about the overall research landscape of the field. This thesis, hence, aims to fill this knowledge gap by studying a bibliometric dataset of development economic research in Vietnam from 2008 to 2020, which was extracted from The Social Sciences and Humanities Peer Awards (SSHPA) database. Descriptive and Bayesian statistics were used for analysis. We observed a steady growth of scientific publications over the years. Quantitative studies dominate the field, probably because of the availability of secondary data. The number of authors increased significantly, but the productivity is highly skewed toward the top 5% authors, who contributed 50.61% of total publications. Collaboration pattern witnessed a significant change: less dependence on foreign colleagues and the emergence of domestic research groups. The list of journals and publishers where Vietnamese authors published the most shows high quality and reputation. Although traditional paywalled publishing is common, the result suggests that open access (OA) is being adopted widely. In fact, OA articles tend to get more citations. Meanwhile, the citation is negatively associated with female authors and the number of Vietnamese authors. Finally, the number of foreigners in an article, and the participation of female authors tend to increase the quartile of the article.
    Date: 2020–12–29

This nep-his issue is ©2021 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.