nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒12‒21
forty papers chosen by

  1. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling of Long and Short-Run Historical Events By Gary D. Hansen; Lee E. Ohanian; Fatih Ozturk
  2. From the First World War to the National Recovery Administration (1917-1935) - The Case for Regulated Competition in the United States during the Interwar Period By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  3. How Africans shaped British colonial institutions: evidence from local taxation By Bolt, Jutta; Gardner, Leigh
  4. Income Inequality under Colonial Rule: Evidence from French Algeria, Cameroon, Tunisia, and Vietnam and comparisons with British colonies 1920-1960 By Facundo Alvaredo; Denis Cogneau; Thomas Piketty
  5. Scolarisation de masse des garçons et des filles. Financement public de l’instruction primaire et croissance économique en France au XIXème siècle. By Claude Diebolt; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
  6. Post-colonial Trends of Income Inequality: Evidence from the Overseas Departments of France By Yajna Govind
  7. Back to the past: the historical roots of labour-saving automation By Jacopo Staccioli; Maria Enrica Virgillito
  8. The Antebellum Roots of Distinctively Black Names By Trevon Logan; Lisa D. Cook; John Parman
  9. Autonomous components of aggregate demand and capital accumulation in Richard Cantillon’s Essai? An inquiry through the lens of modern demand-led growth theory By Santiago José Gahn
  10. Understanding the Success of the Know-Nothing Party By Marcella Alsan; Katherine Eriksson; Gregory Niemesh
  11. THE ISSUES OF CULTURAL HIERARCHIES IN EARLY MODERN ETHNOGRAPHY BASED ON THE ACCOUNTS BY PETRUS PETREJUS, PAUL RYCAUT, FYNES MORYSON, AND JOHN DAVIES By Sergey V. Baigushev; Evgeny A. Khvalkov; Feliks E. Levin; Alena Kuznetsova; Nikita Malinovskiy; Gleb Paramonov; Adrian A. Selin; Aleksandra D. Shisterova; Yulia Zakrzhevskaia; Daria Zubkova
  12. Did taller people live longer? Influence of height on life span in rural Spain, 1835-2019 By Francisco J. Marco-Gracia; Javier Puche
  13. Predistribution vs. Redistribution: Evidence from France and the U.S By Antoine Bozio; Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Malka Guillot; Thomas Piketty
  14. Electoral Cleavages and Socioeconomic Inequality in Germany 1949-2017 By Thomas Piketty; Fabian Kosse
  15. Does nudity sell? An econometric analysis of the value of female nudity in Modigliani portraits By Alessia Crotta; Filip Vermeylen
  16. Income Tax Evasion: Recovery from Economic Disasters By Bruno Coric; Blanka Peric Skrabic
  17. Promise, Trust and Betrayal: Costs of Breaching an Implicit Contract By Levy, Daniel; Young, Andrew
  18. Fathoming slavery: feudalism, African bondage, globalisation and beyond By Saccal, Alessandro
  19. Understanding the Organization in light of Design By Christophe Schmitt
  20. Refining Britain's economic diplomacy By Yueh, Linda Y.
  21. Why Is Europe More Equal Than the United States? By Thomas Blanchet; Lucas Chancel; Amory Gethin
  22. Wealth and Shifting Demand Pressures on the Price Level in England After the Black Death. By Anthony EDO; Jacques MELITZ
  23. New Technologies, Productivity, and Jobs: The (Heterogeneous) Effects of Electrification on US Manufacturing By Martin Fiszbein; Jeanne Lafortune; Ethan G. Lewis; José Tessada
  24. Préface : Les dépenses publiques en France. By Claude Diebolt
  25. The 100% Reserve Reform: Calamity or Opportunity? By Pfister Christian
  26. LATE for History By Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro
  27. The reconstruction of back data for Italy’s balance of payments and international investment position (1970-1999) By Enrico Tosti
  28. Education and Protection of the Environment to shape Mauritius’ future in a COVID-19 landscape By Jaime de Melo
  29. Dictatorship, Higher Education, and Social Mobility By Bautista, María Angélica; González, Felipe; Martinez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
  30. Asia’s emergence in global beverage markets: The rise of wine By Kym Anderson
  31. Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Pollution on Crime: Evidence from 1970 Clean Air Act By Divya Sadana
  32. Energy Efficiency: What has it Delivered in the Last 40 Years? By Saunders, Harry; Roy, Joyashree; Azevedo, Inês M.L.; Chakravarty, Debalina; Dasgubta, Shyamasree; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Druckman, Angela; Fouquet, Roger; Grubb, Michael; Qiang Lin, Bo; Lowe, Robert; Madlener, Reinhard; McCoy, Daire; Mundaca, Luis; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Sorrell, Steve; Stern, David; Tanaka, Kanako; Wei, Taoyuan
  33. Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States By ; Martin R. Goetz
  34. Social Inequality and the Dynamics of Political and Ethnolinguistic Divides in Pakistan, 1970-2018 By Amory Gethin,; Sultan Mehmood; Thomas Piketty
  35. The Federal Effort to Desegregate Southern Hospitals and the Black-White Infant Mortality Gap By Anderson, D. Mark; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Rees, Daniel I.
  36. Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation By Henrik Kleven; Camille Landais; Johanna Posch; Andreas Steinhauer; Josef Zweimüller
  37. A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland's 1990s stagnation By Yannic Stucki; Jacqueline Thomet
  38. Italian Doctorate Holders and Academic Career. Progression in the Period 1986-2015 By Massimiliano Coda Zabetta; Aldo Geuna
  39. Will the Secular Decline In Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19? By Ethan Ilzetzki; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff
  40. Celestial enlightenment: eclipses, curiosity and economic development among pre-modern ethnic groups By Anastasia Litina; Èric Roca Fernández

  1. By: Gary D. Hansen; Lee E. Ohanian; Fatih Ozturk
    Abstract: We provide quantitative analyses of two striking historical episodes, the timing of the Industrial Revolution in England, and the sources of U.S. economic fluctuations between 1889-1929. Applying data from 1245-1845 within the “Malthus to Solow” framework shows that the timing of the Industrial Revolution reflects a subtle interplay between large changes in TFP and deaths from plagues. We find that U.S. economic fluctuations, including the Panics of 1893 and 1907, were driven primarily by volatile TFP, and that growth during the “Roaring Twenties” should have been even stronger, reflecting a large labor wedge that emerged around World War I.
    JEL: E0 N1
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
    Abstract: The experience of the war economy during the First World War in the United States reinforced the influence of arguments in favour of managed competition. By extending the principles of scientific management to the economy as a whole, this approach aimed to coordinate firms through the exchange of information, which was seen as a necessity both in terms of economic efficiency and response to cyclical fluctuations. Such a stance greatly reduced the application of competition rules. Nevertheless, the proposals that emerged during the 1929 crisis – leading to the reproduction of the war-economy experience in peacetime at the risk of steering the US economy towards the formation of cartels under the supervision of the federal government – were rejected by President Herbert Hoover, despite his defence of a model for regulated competition in the 1920s. The paradox was President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s resumption of these projects within the framework of the First New Deal. This paper deals with the arguments that were put forward to evade competition rules and explains why the Democratic administration ultimately decided to return to a resolute enforcement of the Sherman Act.
    Keywords: War Economy,Cartelization,Competition Rules,Scientific Management,Information Exchange,
    JEL: L40 L51 N12
    Date: 2020–12–09
  3. By: Bolt, Jutta; Gardner, Leigh
    Abstract: The institutions that governed most of the rural population in British colonial Africa have been neglected in the literature on colonialism. We use new data on local governments, or "Native Authorities,"to present the first quantitative comparison of African institutions under indirect rule in four colonies in 1948: Nigeria, the Gold Coast, Nyasaland, and Kenya. Tax data show that Native Authorities' capacity varied within and between colonies, due to both underlying economic inequalities and African elites' relations with the colonial government. Our findings suggest that Africans had a bigger hand in shaping British colonial institutions than often acknowledged.
    Keywords: ES/R005753
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–10–02
  4. By: Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Denis Cogneau (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: In this article we assess income inequality across French and British colonial empires between 1920 and 1960. For the first time, income tax tabulations are exploited to assess the case studies of French Algeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, and Vietnam, which we compare to British colonies and dominions. As measured by top income shares, inequality was high in colonies. It fell after WWII, but stabilized at much higher levels than in mainland France or the United Kingdom in the 1950s. European settlers or expatriates comprised the bulk of top income earners, and only a minority of autochthons could compete in terms of income, particularly in Africa. Top income shares were no higher in settlement colonies, not only because those territories were wealthier but also because the average European settler was less rich than the average European expatriate. Inequality between Europeans in colonies was similar to (or even below) that of the metropoles. In settlement colonies, the post-WWII fall in income inequality can be explained by a fall in inequality between Europeans, mirroring that of the metropoles, and does not imply that the European/autochthon income gap was reduced.
    Keywords: Inequality,Top incomes,Colonialism,Africa,Asia
    Date: 2020–07
  5. By: Claude Diebolt; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
    Abstract: L’objectif de cet article est d’étudier dans quelle mesure la centralisation du système éducatif français a profité à l’éducation de masse. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons des informations sur les financements liés à l’éducation alloués par l’État, les départements, les régions, les ménages et les entreprises de 1820 à 1913. Pour mener notre analyse, nous procédons en deux étapes. Tout d’abord, nous étudions l’évolution des différents types de financement dans le temps et nous nous appuyons sur la méthodologie des points atypiques pour détecter l’existence d’éventuelles ruptures dans les séries. Ensuite, nous analysons la causalité entre les différents types de financement et les taux de scolarisation des garçons et des filles. Les résultats originaux que nous obtenons révèlent que la scolarisation de masse en France au XIXème siècle, a été davantage rendue possible par la volonté politique que par nécessité économique.
    Keywords: Instruction primaire; Financement; XIXème siècle; France.
    JEL: C22 C81 C82 H52 I24 N33
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Yajna Govind (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: Most ex-colonies have gained their independence during the decolonization wave in the last century. Recent research on the colonial legacy in terms of inequality has thus mostly focused on these independent states, overlooking the territories which have been assimilated by their ex-colonizers. This paper analyzes the post-colonial inequality in four such territories-La Réunion, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Guyane. Drawing on a new income tax dataset put together in this paper, I study the evolution of income inequality in the four oldest French colonies, now overseas departments of France, since their decolonization in 1946 until recent years. The results of the top 1% income shares reveal a rapid decline of inequality since decolonization and stabilisation in the recent decade. Despite the general catch-up of the overseas departments, the top 10% income share remained consistently higher than in the metropolis. Going further, I investigate the underlying cleavage: the metropolitan-native divide. Matching recent fiscal data to the corresponding population census, I show that public-sector employment and metropolitans are over-represented at the top of the distribution and that there exist a "metropolitan income premium" in the overseas departments, even after controlling for observable characteristics.
    Keywords: Inequality,France,Post-Colonial
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Jacopo Staccioli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa); Maria Enrica Virgillito (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa – Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
    Abstract: This paper, relying on a still relatively unexplored long-term dataset on U.S. patenting activity, provides empirical evidence on the history of labour-saving innovations back to early 19th century. The identification of mechanisation/automation heuristics, retrieved via textual content analysis on current robotic technologies by Montobbio et al. (2020), allows to focus on a limited set of CPC codes where mechanisation and automation technologies are more prevalent. We track their time evolution, clustering, eventual emergence of wavy behaviour, and their comovements with long-term GDP growth. Our results challenge both the general-purpose technology approach and the strict 50-year Kondratiev cycle, while provide evidence of the emergence of erratic constellations of heterogeneous technological artefacts, in line with the development-block approach enabled by autocatalytic systems.
    Keywords: Labour-Saving Technologies, Search Heuristics, Industrial Revolutions, Wavelet analysis
    JEL: O3 C38 J24
    Date: 2020–11
  8. By: Trevon Logan; Lisa D. Cook; John Parman
    Abstract: This paper explores the existence of distinctively Black names in the antebellum era. Building on recent research that documents the existence of a national naming pattern for African American males in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries (Cook, Logan and Parman 2014), we analyze three distinct and novel antebellum data sources and uncover three stylized facts. First, the Black names identified by Cook, Logan and Parman using post-Civil War data are common names among Blacks before Emancipation. Second, these same Black names are racially distinctive in the antebellum period. Third, the racial distinctiveness of the names increases from the early 1800s to the time of the Civil War. Taken together, these facts provide support for the claim that Black naming patterns existed in the antebellum era and that racial distinctiveness in naming patterns was an established practice well before Emancipation. These findings further challenge the view that Black names are a product of twentieth century phenomena such as the Civil Rights Movement.
    JEL: J1 N3 Z13
    Date: 2020–11
  9. By: Santiago José Gahn
    Abstract: Recently, some authors have severely criticised the incorporation of the notion of autonomous components of aggregate demand in demand-led growth theory. We show that these components are present in Richard Cantillon’s Essai written in the XVIIth century, and that an implicit demand-led theory of capital accumulation can be also developed based on his writings.
    Keywords: Cantillon, Growth theory, History of Economic Thought
    JEL: E11 C22
    Date: 2020–11
  10. By: Marcella Alsan; Katherine Eriksson; Gregory Niemesh
    Abstract: We study the contribution of economic conditions to the success of the first avowedly nativist political party in the United States. The Know-Nothing Party gained control of a number of state governments in the 1854-1856 elections running on a staunchly anti-Catholic and anti-Irish platform. Our analysis focuses on the case of Massachusetts, which had experienced a wave of Irish Famine immigration and was at the forefront of industrialization in the United States. Voters in towns with more exposure to Irish labor market crowdout and deskilling in manufacturing were more likely to vote for Know-Nothing candidates in state elections. These two forces played a decisive role in 1855, but not the other years of the Know Nothings’ success. We find evidence of reduced wealth accumulation for native workers most exposed to labor market crowdout and deskilling, though this was tempered by occupational upgrading.
    JEL: J01 J1 J15 J71 N12 N32
    Date: 2020–11
  11. By: Sergey V. Baigushev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Evgeny A. Khvalkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Feliks E. Levin; Alena Kuznetsova (National Research University Higher School of Economics; National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nikita Malinovskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Gleb Paramonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Adrian A. Selin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksandra D. Shisterova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Yulia Zakrzhevskaia (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Daria Zubkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper is focused on the issues of cultural hierarchies in early modern European imperial discourses in all-European discourse about Muscovy and Ottoman Empire and English discourse about Ireland, which have not been previously compared, in the narratives by Petrus Petreus, Paul Rycaut, Fynes Moryson and John Davies. The authors of the article have analyzed mechanisms of building the cultural hierarchies and compares different traditions of ethnographical descriptions with each other. The authors under consideration not only create cultural hierarchies, but also instrumentalize the image of the Other to some extent. They focus on government, laws, religion and manners. The choice of these aspects aims to highlight problems important not for (or not only for) the Other, but for authors` societies themselves. The fact that most accounts describe relative barbarians rather than absolute also can be a consequence of such instrumentalization, because comparison between “us” and the Other becomes important.
    Keywords: Early Modern Period, XVIth – XVIIth centuries, the Other, discourse, description strategies, Europe, periphery, Ireland, the Tsardom of Moscow, the Ottoman Empire, early modern ethnography.
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Francisco J. Marco-Gracia (Universidad de Zaragoza); Javier Puche (Universidad de Zaragoza)
    Abstract: This article analyses the relationship between male height and age at death among adults born between 1835 and 1939 in fourteen villages in north-east Spain. A total of 1,488 conscripts who died between 1868 and 2019 have been included in the analysis. The height data have been obtained from conscriptions for military service; demographic and socioeconomic data of the deceased were obtained from parish archives and censuses. The data were linked according to nominative criteria using family reconstitution methods. The results suggest that there has been a positive relationship between height and life span in the long-term. For the birth cohorts of 1835-1869, conscripts with a height of 170 cm or more lived on average 7.6 years longer than individuals measuring less than 160 cm. This biological difference disappeared for the birth cohort of 1900-1939 due to a progressive improvement in health and nutrition conditions, benefiting especially the short conscripts.
    Keywords: Heights, Life span, Biological inequality, rural Spain, 1835-2019
    JEL: I10 I14 I15 N33 N34
    Date: 2020–12
  13. By: Antoine Bozio (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique [Bruz] - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz], WIL - World Inequality Lab); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Malka Guillot (ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich], IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: How much redistribution policies can account for long-run changes in inequality? To answer this question, we quantify the extent of redistribution over time by the percentage reduction from pretax to post-tax inequalities, and decompose the changes in post-tax inequalities into different redistributive policies and changes in pretax inequalities. To estimate these redistributive statistics, we construct homogenous annual series of post-tax national income for France over the 1900-2018 period, and compare them with those recently constructed for the U.S. We obtain three major findings. First, redistribution has increased in both countries over the period, earlier in the U.S., later in France, to reach similar levels today. Second, the substantial long-run decline in post-tax inequality in France over the 1900-2018 period is due mostly to the fall in pretax inequality (accounting for three quarters of the total decline), and to a lesser extent to the direct redistributive role of taxes, transfers and other public spending (about one quarter). Third, the reason why overall inequality is much smaller in France than in the U.S. is entirely due to differences in pretax inequality. These findings suggest that policy discussions on inequality should, in the future, pay more attention to policies affecting pretax inequality and should not focus exclusively on "redistribution".
    Date: 2020–10
  14. By: Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Fabian Kosse (LMU - Institut für Informatik [München/Munich] - LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)
    Abstract: This paper explores the changing relationships between party support, electoral cleavages and socioeconomic inequality in Germany since 1949. We analyze the link between voting behaviors and socioeconomic characteristics of voters. In the 1950s-1970s, the vote for left parties was strongly associated with lower education and lower income voters. Since the 1980s voting for left parties has become associated with higher education voters. In effect, intellectual and economic elites seem to have drifted apart, with high-education elites voting for the left and high-income elites voting for the right. We analyze how this process is related to the occurrence of new parties since 1980 and the recent rise of populism.
    Date: 2020–11–24
  15. By: Alessia Crotta (Arts and Culture Studies department, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Filip Vermeylen (Arts and Culture Studies department, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: Of the four most expensive works of art ever auctioned, three are portraits of nude women (ArtPrice, 2018). Of these three female nudes, two were painted by Amedeo Modigliani. In light of this artist’s contribution to the conceptualisation of female nudity in modern art, our paper examines to what extent the presence of female nudity influences the economic value of his portraits. Based on the significance the existing art-historical literature bestows on female nudity in western painting, we examine whether the artistic importance of this genre correlates to its economic value. This research offers a quantitative evaluation of the female nude in the art market. By employing hedonic regression, we are able to analyse whether the presence of female nudity affects the price that these paintings achieve at auctions. The sample, collected primarily from ArtPrice, consists in 924 sales of Modigliani paintings and drawings. The research confirms that nudity has a positive and relevant influence on the determination of the hammer and estimated prices. Although limited in generalisability, the research assesses that particular aspects relative to the aesthetic value of art are reflected in its economic value, at least in the case of Modigliani.
    Keywords: art market; art auctions; economic value; artistic value; Amedeo Modigliani
    JEL: Z1
    Date: 2020–12
  16. By: Bruno Coric; Blanka Peric Skrabic
    Abstract: This study uses two large datasets to explore the output dynamics following economic disasters, one including 180 economic disasters across 38 countries over the last two centuries, and the other including 204 economic disasters in 182 countries since World War II. Our results suggest that extreme economic crises are associated with huge and remarkably persistent output loss. On average, output loss surges to above 26 percent in the first few years after the outbreak of an economic disaster and remains above 20 percent for as long as 20 years. It is only after more than 50 years that the loss is fully recovered.
    Keywords: economic disaster; output loss; economic recovery;
    JEL: E32 N10
    Date: 2020–11
  17. By: Levy, Daniel; Young, Andrew
    Abstract: We study the cost of breaching an implicit contract in a goods market. Young and Levy (2014) document an implicit contract between the Coca-Cola Company and its consumers. This implicit contract included a promise of constant quality. We offer two types of evidence of the costs of breach. First, we document a case in 1930 when the Coca-Cola Company chose to avoid quality adjustment by incurring a permanently higher marginal cost of production, instead of a one-time increase in the fixed cost. Second, we explore the consequences of the company’s 1985 introduction of “New Coke” to replace the original beverage. Using the Hirschman’s (1970) model of Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, we argue that the public outcry that followed New Coke’s introduction was a response to the implicit contract breach.
    Keywords: Invisible Handshake; Implicit Contract; Customer Market; Long-Term Relationship; Cost of Breaching a Contract; Cost of Breaking a Contract; Coca-Cola; New Coke; Exit Voice and Loyalty; Nickel Coke; Sticky Prices; Rigid Prices; Price Stickiness; Price Rigidity; Cost of Price Adjustment; Menu Cost; Cost of Quality Adjustment
    JEL: E31 K10 L11 L16 L66 M20 M30 N80 N82
    Date: 2020–11–25
  18. By: Saccal, Alessandro
    Abstract: Wherever dechristianisation could not have possibly materialised, in those polities which abandoned God to start with, since the Fall to the eschaton, slavery was never substantially execrated, having continued to this day, net of abolitionism, in globalisation. Thence the perduring Arab slave trade over one millenium and the improbability of an end to the Atlantic one absent abolitionism, which would have withal flowed indeed into globalisation. No sooner was Western Europe by contrast dechristianised at heart, in the tares of Protestantism, than the internal slave raids ended together with the tutelage of feudalism.
    Keywords: Africa; Arabs; apostasy; dechristianisation; Europe; feudalism; globalisation; Levant; Protes- tantism; slavery.
    JEL: N20 N21 N22 N23 N24 N25 N26 N27 Z12
    Date: 2020–11–18
  19. By: Christophe Schmitt (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine)
    Abstract: Herbert Simon used design as a cornerstone of his studies on the Sciences of the Artificial. This article aims to show the contribution of his work in understanding the organization. Even after more than 50 years, his work is still considered of high topicality. Hence, this article first shows how the concept of design was formed over time, then depicts the contributions and perspectives of design to understand the organization, and finally, discusses the implications on the positions to conduct research, support and train on design.
    Abstract: Herbert Simon a fait de la conception une pierre angulaire de sa réflexion sur les sciences de l'artificiel. Cet article se propose de montrer l'apport de ses travaux pour la compréhension de l'organisation. Même ayant plus de 50 ans, sa réflexion est encore largement d'actualité. L'article aborde donc la construction de la notion de conception dans le temps, puis les apports et les perspectives de la conception pour comprendre l'organisation et, enfin, les implications sur les postures pour faire de la recherche, accompagner et former à la conception.
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Yueh, Linda Y.
    Abstract: The EU referendum has thrown up many questions around globalisation as well as how to reposition Britain in the world after Brexit. The UK government’s professed intent to leave the European Union and negotiate its own free trade agreements means that Britain would be setting its own trade policies for the first time since 1973, and would need to explicitly set out the aims of British trade and associated foreign investment policies for the first time in four decades. With this in mind, clearly defining the UK’s economic diplomacy is crucial. Current global and domestic conditions are politically challenging. However, this offers an opportunity for the UK to take a lead in setting a helpful direction for the rest of the world, and ensuring that trade and investment policies benefit all in society.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–07
  21. By: Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab , PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucas Chancel; Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab , PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We combine all available household surveys, income tax and national accounts data in a systematic manner to produce comparable pretax and posttax income inequality series in 38 European countries between 1980 and 2017. Our estimates are consistent with macroeconomic growth rates and comparable with US Distributional National Accounts. We find that inequalities rose in most European countries since 1980 both before and after taxes, but much less than in the US. Between 1980 and 2017, the European top 1% pretax income share rose from 8% to 11% while it rose from 11% to 21% in the US. Europe's lower inequality levels are mainly explained by a more equal distribution of pretax incomes rather than by more equalizing taxes and transfers systems. "Predistribution" is found to play a much larger role in explaining Europe's relative resistance to inequality than "redistribution": it accounts for between two-thirds and
    Date: 2020–09
  22. By: Anthony EDO (CEPII.); Jacques MELITZ (CREST, CEPII and Heriot-Watt University.)
    Abstract: The scale of the rise in personal wealth following the Black Death calls the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption into consideration. This paper shows for the first time that the wealth effect of the Black Death on the price level continued in England for generations, up to 1450. Indeed, in absence of consideration of the wealth effect, other influences on the price level do not even appear in the econometric analysis. The separate roles of coinage, population, trade, wages and annual number of days worked for wages all also receive attention and new results follow for adjustment in the labor market.
    Keywords: Black Death, fourteenth-century England, price level, Great Famine.
    JEL: N13 J11 F33 J46
    Date: 2020–12–09
  23. By: Martin Fiszbein; Jeanne Lafortune; Ethan G. Lewis; José Tessada
    Abstract: We use city-industry data from 1890 to 1940 to identify the impact of electricity on manufacturing. We exploit cross-industry variation in pre-electricity energy intensity combined with geographic variation in proximity to early hydroelectric power plants. Labor productivity gains from the arrival of electricity were rapid and long-lasting. Electricity was labor-saving, induced capital deepening, and a hollowing out of the labor skills distribution. We document significant heterogeneity in electricity's effects: in sector-county pairs where the average firm was initially large, we find no significant expansion in employment, while in markets with relatively small firms, output and employment increased.
    JEL: J24 L11 O33
    Date: 2020–11
  24. By: Claude Diebolt
    Abstract: Préface à l’ouvrage de François Facchini sur les dépenses publiques en France dans une perspective historique et comparative.
    Keywords: Dépenses publiques, finances publiques, économie publique, histoire économique, cliométrie, France.
    JEL: A2 B41 C82 E6 H5 N3 N4
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Pfister Christian
    Abstract: This paper considers the various 100% Reserve plans that have appeared since the interwar period and have since then been adapted. In all formulations of those schemes, Government liabilities (cash, central bank reserves and short-term Treasuries) back banks’ sight deposits. This organization contrasts with current so-called “fractional reserve banking”, in which, as a result of reserve requirements imposed by the central bank (Drumetz et al., 2015), reserves back only a small fraction of sight deposits. The paper briefly presents the six categories of plans. It then highlights their common features as well as their differences, showing that the differences are more numerous than the common features. The criticisms voiced against the different formulations of 100% Reserves are exposed, adding those of the author and distinguishing between the doubts expressed on the validity of the analysis on one hand, and some undesirable consequences of the reform on the other. In spite of these criticisms, it then shown that the 100% Reserve reform is becoming topical, with recent private sector, central banks and political initiatives that relate to it. Overall, the 100% Reserve reform does not appear as a meaningful opportunity to improve the functioning of banking systems. Furthermore, at least one of its variants could easily turn into a calamity. Fortunately, it is not that variant that is getting more topical.
    Keywords: 100% Reserve, Chicago Plan, deposited currency, full-reserve, limited purpose banking, narrow banking, sovereign money
    JEL: E42 E51 E52 E58
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro
    Abstract: In Historical Economics, Persistence studies document the persistence of some historical phenomenon or leverage this persistence to identify causal relationships of interest in the present. In this chapter, we analyze the implications of allowing for heterogeneous treatment effects in these studies. We delineate their common empirical structure, argue that heterogeneous treatment effects are likely in their context, and propose minimal abstract models that help interpret results and guide the development of empirical strategies to uncover the mechanisms generating the effects.
    JEL: C36 C51 N01
    Date: 2020–11
  27. By: Enrico Tosti (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The changeover to the sixth Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6) has meant a significant revision of the international standards for compiling external statistics (flows and stocks). In accordance with international agreements, the reconstruction was carried out starting from 1995 for the balance of payments and from the end of 1998 for the international investment position. This statistical work extends the revision back to 1970 for both of them, using ad hoc estimates when necessary. By and large, the reconstruction was based on the criterion of keeping overall balances unchanged, i.e. of not significantly altering past history. Although compliance with BPM6 standards has not always been strictly possible, the possibility of having longer time series nonetheless widens the scope for the long-term analysis of real and financial phenomena concerning Italy’s external economic relations.
    Keywords: balance of payments, international investment position, time series reconstruction
    JEL: C82 F00 N14 Y1
    Date: 2020–11
  28. By: Jaime de Melo (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, UNIGE - Université de Genève)
    Abstract: In a span of fifty years, Mauritius has reached high-income status according to the World Bank criterion. Key to this success was the combination of: (i) effective policies; (ii) resilience to shocks; (iii) adaptation to changing external events cemented by close collaboration between Government, the private sector, unions, and civil society. These actors will need to continue to collaborate on the new challenges: (i) restoring trust in the Government following the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath; (ii) facing the 4th industrial revolution; (iii) shifting to a development path that arrests the deterioration in the environment.
    Date: 2020–11–13
  29. By: Bautista, María Angélica; González, Felipe; Martinez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We study the capture of higher education by the Pinochet dictatorship following the 1973 military coup in Chile. We show that the regime’s twin aims of political control and fiscal conservatism led to a large contraction of all universities in the country, mostly through a steady reduction in the number of openings for incoming students. As a result, individuals that reached college age in the years immediately after the military coup experienced a sharp decline in college enrollment. These individuals had worse labor market outcomes throughout the life cycle and struggled to climb up the socioeconomic ladder. Children with a parent in the affected cohorts are themselves less likely to enroll in university, even after democratization. These findings illustrate the relationship between political regimes, redistributive policies and social mobility. They also shed light on the long-lasting effects of the reform agenda implemented under Pinochet.
    Date: 2020–12–04
  30. By: Kym Anderson
    Abstract: Asia’s alcohol consumption, and its retail expenditure on each of beer, distilled spirits and grape wine, have more than doubled so far this century. In the process, the mix of beverages in Asia’s consumption of alcohol has been converging on that of the west as wine’s share rises. Since Asia’s beverage production has not kept up with its expansion in demand, imports net of exports are increasingly filling the gap – especially for wine. This paper analyses trends in consumption and imports for the region and key Asian countries, and provides projections to 2025 using a new model of global beverage markets.
    Keywords: Changes in beverage tastes, premiumization of alcohol consumption, impacts of tax and trade policies, beverage market projections
    JEL: F14 F17 L66 Q13
    Date: 2020
  31. By: Divya Sadana
    Abstract: Past literature has shown that 1970 amendments to the Clean Air Act (CAA) led to significant reduction in air pollution early 1970s, and that it had positive infant health consequences for the cohorts treated by CAA. Because effects of in-utero and early childhood conditions are persistent, and the health effects can remain latent for years, CAA may impact the future adult outcomes. In this paper, I investigate the impact of the CAA on the future crime. In a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the cohorts that were born in the year of the CAAâs first implementation commit fewer crimes 15 to 24 years later. The magnitude of this impact is about 4 percent. Property crimes rather than violent crimes are impacted. I also estimate that CAA reduced the ambient air pollution by 14 percent. These reduced form estimates suggest that a one percent reduction in air pollution reduces future crime rate by 0.3 percent.
    JEL: I15 I25 J24 K42 Q53
    Date: 2020–12–06
  32. By: Saunders, Harry (Carnegie Institution for Science, Global Ecology Group, Stanford, USA); Roy, Joyashree (Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand); Azevedo, Inês M.L. (Stanford University, USA); Chakravarty, Debalina (Indian Institute of Management-Calcutta); Dasgubta, Shyamasree (Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, India); de la Rue du Can, Stephane (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA); Druckman, Angela (University of Surrey, UK); Fouquet, Roger (London School of Economics and Political Science, UK); Grubb, Michael (University College London, UK); Qiang Lin, Bo (Xiamen University, China); Lowe, Robert (University College London, UK); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); McCoy, Daire (London School of Economics and Political Science, UK); Mundaca, Luis (International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund University, Sweden); Oreszczyn, Tadj (University College London, UK); Sorrell, Steve (University of Sussex, UK); Stern, David (Australian National University); Tanaka, Kanako (Japan Science and Technology Agency, Japan); Wei, Taoyuan (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway)
    Abstract: This article presents a critical assessment of research and practices that emerged over last 40 years that may be brought under the umbrella of “energy efficiency,” spanning different aggregations and domains – from individual producing and consuming agents to economy-wide effects, the role of innovation, and the influence of policy. It highlights advances in understanding the benefits of energy efficiency innovation, improvements in economic and measurement methods and tools, and progress in bending downward the energy use per unit economic output curve, which has taken over a century. We focus on how well deliberate policy actions have influenced energy users in the uptake of energy efficiency. We also note how policies pursued thus far have put less attention on social welfare, inequity issues, and need to better account for complex dynamics associated with how micro actions affect macro outcomes, and to include a richer interdisciplinary approach.
    JEL: N70 O33 Q40 Q41 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2020–11
  33. By: ; Martin R. Goetz
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the comovement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking integration increases output co-movement between states. The effect of financial integration depends on the nature of the idiosyncratic shocks faced by states and is stronger for more financially dependent industries. Finally, we show that integration (1) increases the similarity of bank lending fluctuations between states and (2) contributes to the transmission of deposit shocks across states.
    Keywords: Banking integration; Synchronization; Financial deregulation; Business cycles
    JEL: E32 F36 F44 G21
    Date: 2020–11–20
  34. By: Amory Gethin, (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Sultan Mehmood (Aix-Marseille School of Economics [Aix-Marseille Université] - Centre de la Vieille Charité [Aix-Marseille Université] - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This study documents the changing structure of Pakistan's political cleavages by making use of a unique set of exit polls covering every direct election held in the country between 1970 and 2018. We analyze the evolution of the party system, beginning with the initial economic "left-right" opposition between the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muslim Leage. Regionalist, ethnolinguistic and religious divides have weakened and transformed this party system. The decline of the PPP has come with its transformation from a lowincome mass-based party to an ethnic party confined to Sindhi speakers. We also analyze the recent rise of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and the role played by the political unification of the various economic, religious and military elites in its success. Finally, we discuss how the Islamization policies implemented under the military regime of Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988) have contributed to weaken the development of a pro-redistribution secularist coalition.
    Date: 2020–08
  35. By: Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Charles, Kerwin Kofi (Harris School, University of Chicago); Rees, Daniel I. (University of Colorado Denver)
    Abstract: In 1966, Southern hospitals were barred from participating in Medicare unless they discontinued their long-standing practice of racial segregation. Using data from five Deep South states and exploiting county-level variation in Medicare certification dates, we find that gaining access to an ostensibly integrated hospital had no effect on the Black-White infant mortality gap, although it may have discouraged small numbers of Black mothers from giving birth at home attended by a midwife. These results are consistent with descriptions of the federal hospital desegregation campaign as producing only cosmetic changes and illustrate the limits of anti-discrimination policies imposed upon reluctant actors.
    Keywords: hospital desegregation, black infant mortality, Medicare, civil rights
    JEL: I14 I18 N32
    Date: 2020–12
  36. By: Henrik Kleven; Camille Landais; Johanna Posch; Andreas Steinhauer; Josef Zweimüller
    Abstract: Do family policies reduce gender inequality in the labor market? We contribute to this debate by investigating the joint impact of parental leave and child care, using administrative data covering the labor market and birth histories of Austrian workers over more than half a century. We start by quasi-experimentally identifying the causal effects of all family policy reforms since the 1950s on the full dynamics of male and female earnings. We then map these causal estimates into a decomposition framework a la Kleven, Landais and Søgaard (2019) to compute counterfactual gender gaps. Our results show that the enormous expansions of parental leave and child care subsidies have had virtually no impact on gender convergence.
    JEL: H31 H42 J08 J13 J16 J18 J22
    Date: 2020–11
  37. By: Yannic Stucki; Jacqueline Thomet
    Abstract: We study Switzerland's weak growth during the 1990s through the lens of the business cycle accounting framework of Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007). Our main result is that weak productivity growth cannot account for the stagnation experienced during that time. Rather, the stagnation is explained by factors that made labour and investment expensive. We show that increased labour income taxes and financial frictions are plausible causes. Holding these factors constant, the counterfactual annualized real output growth over the 1992Q2-1996Q4 period is 1.93% compared to realized growth of 0.35%.
    Keywords: Business cycle accounting, housing crises, stagnation, Switzerland
    JEL: E13 E20 E32 E65
    Date: 2020
  38. By: Massimiliano Coda Zabetta; Aldo Geuna
    Abstract: This paper describes the Italian Doctoral Holder and Academic Career (IDH-AC) database, which includes unique information on the population of doctoral graduates from Italian universities, in all disciplines, in the period from the first cycle of doctorates (1983-86) to 2006. Doctoral graduates who pursued an academic career in Italy were identified by matching with the list of academics active in Italian universities in the period 1990-2015. These original data allows us to shed light on several issues related to the Italian academic labour market, such as gender, inbreeding, mobility, hiring and promotion patterns. The paper i) describes the record linkage between two datasets and ii) presents an exploratory statistical analysis of academic employment outcomes for the population of researchers who were awarded a doctoral degree from an Italian university over a 20 year period.
    Keywords: PhD holders, Academic careers, Database, Record linkage.
    JEL: I23 J45 M51
    Date: 2020
  39. By: Ethan Ilzetzki; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff
    Abstract: Over the 21st century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downwards, notably among the core G3 currencies (dollar, euro and the yen), and to some extent the G4 (including China). This stability continued through the Covid-19 recession to date: unusual, as exchange volatility generally rises in US recessions. Compared to measures of stock price volatility, exchange rate volatility rivals the lows reached in the heyday of Bretton Woods I. This paper argues that the core driver is convergence in monetary policy, reflected in a sharp-reduction of inflation and short- and especially long-term interest rate differentials. This unprecedented stability, which partially extends to emerging markets, is strongly reinforced by expectations that the zero bound will be significantly binding for advanced economies for years to come. We consider various hypotheses and suggest that the shutdown of monetary volatility is the leading explanation. The concluding part of the paper cautions that systemic economic crises often produce major turning points, so a collapse of the Extended Bretton Woods II regime cannot be ruled out.
    JEL: E5 F3 F4 N2
    Date: 2020–11
  40. By: Anastasia Litina (University of Macedonia); Èric Roca Fernández (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: This paper revisits the role of human capital for economic growth among pre-modern ethnic groups. We hypothesise that exposure to rare natural events drives curiosity and prompts thinking in an attempt to comprehend and explain the phenomenon, thus raising human capital and, ultimately, pre-modern growth. We focus on solar eclipses as one particular trigger of curiosity and empirically establish a robust relationship between their number and several proxies for economic prosperity: social complexity, technological level and population density. Variation in solar eclipse exposure is exogenous as their local incidence is randomly and sparsely distributed all over the globe. Additionally, eclipses' non-destructive character makes them outperform other uncanny natural events, such as volcano eruptions or earthquakes, which have direct negative economic effects. We also offer evidence compatible with the human capital increase we postulate, finding a more intricate thinking process in ethnic groups more exposed to solar eclipses. In particular, we study the development of written language, the playing of strategy games and the accuracy of the folkloric reasoning for eclipses.
    Keywords: eclipses, human capital, development, curiosity
    JEL: N10 N30 E02 O10 O50 Z10
    Date: 2020–12

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.