nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒11‒16
29 papers chosen by

  1. Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Iberian Incomes, 1800-2000 By Luciano Amaral; Concha Betr‡n; Vicente Pinilla
  2. Influence of Karl Marx’s Political Thought in 20th Century By Anand, Sanjeev; Mishra, Mukesh Kumar
  3. Income Inequality in French West Africa: Building Social Tables for Pre-Independence Senegal and Ivory Coast By Guido Alfani; Federico Tadei
  4. Who Married, (to) Whom, and Where? Trends in Marriage in the United States, 1850-1940 By Olivetti, Claudia; Paserman, M. Daniele; Salisbury, Laura; Weber, E. Anna
  5. Colonizer Identity and Trade in Africa: Were the British More Favourable to Free Trade? By Federico Tadei
  6. Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694-1844 By O'Brien, Patrick Karl; Palma, Nuno
  7. Milton Friedman and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries By Sebastian Edwards
  8. Impact of the Memory of Kurofune (Black Ships) on the Course of Industrialization in Early Meiji Japan By Naoki Odanaka
  9. Immigrant Communities and Knowledge Spillovers: Danish-Americans and the Development of the Dairy Industry in the United States By Boberg-Fazlić, Nina; Sharp, Paul
  10. Three tribes: the uneasy relations between economics and economic history By Martina Cioni; Giovanni Federico; Michelangelo Vasta
  11. Reliability and security at the dawn of electronic bank transfers in the 1970s-1980s By Maixe-Altes, J. Carles
  12. Art Return Rates from Old Master Paintings to Contemporary Art By Federico Etro; Elena Stepanova
  13. A Note on the Interpretation of Financialization as the ‘Sixth Countertendency’ to Marx’s Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall By Stefano Di Bucchianico
  14. The Pre-kautilyan Period: a sustainable model through ancient economic ideas and practices By Satish Deodhar; Sriram Balasubramanian
  15. UK Interregional Trade Estimation: Estimates of trade between Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England By Alastair Greig; Mairi Spowage; Graeme Roy
  16. Gulags, crime, and elite violence : origins and consequences of the Russian mafia By Lonsky, Jakub
  17. From the Core to the Cores: Surplus Approach, Institutions and Economic Formations By Cesaratto, Sergio; Di Bucchianico, Stefano
  18. One strike and you’re out! Dictators’ fate in the aftermath of terrorism By Adam, Antonis; Tsavou, Evi
  19. The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States By Jonathon Hazell; Juan Herreño; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson
  20. Capitalist Systems and Income Inequality By , Stone Center; Ranaldi, Marco; Milanovic, Branko
  21. Borderline Disorder: (De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa By Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
  22. Regional Divergence and House Prices By Howard, Greg; Liebersohn, Jack
  23. The International Consequences of Bretton Woods Capital Controls and the Value of Geopolitical Stability By Lee E. Ohanian; Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria; Diana Van Patten; Mark L. J. Wright
  24. How Macroeconomists Lost Control of Stabilization Policy: Towards Dark Ages By Jean-Bernard Chatelain; Kirsten Ralf
  25. The art of economic catch-up. Barriers, detoursand leapfrogging in innovation systems By Cobby, Roy
  26. Spheres of influence in monetary regimes: the experience of the Horn of Africa (1860-1950) By Moustapha Aman
  27. Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation By Michael Sposi; Kei-Mu Yi; Jing Zhang
  28. Employment Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit: Taking the Long View By Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore; Strain, Michael R.
  29. Celebrating 25 Years of the Nebraska Rural Poll By Vogt, Rebecca J.

  1. By: Luciano Amaral (Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal); Concha Betr‡n (Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Arag—n (IA2), Spain)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the stages of structural change between the three main sectors of the Iberian economies. We also measure the contribution of structural change to economic growth in the long term and we disaggregate within the three sectors to determine the leading industries at each stage of economic transformation. Finally, we also study the contribution of these sectors to economic growth. Our work shows that both Iberian countries were latecomers in industrialisation and also in agricultural success. With a late start in the mid-nineteenth century in relation to the core European countries, they advanced in terms of structural change during the interwar period and experienced post-1950 growth miracles. Major changes took place when technological change and foreign markets were adapted to their factor endowments. The main differences between both countries were the slow path of Portugal in relation to Spain, and the less intense Portuguese structural change, with agriculture having a lower and services a higher share of GDP and employment during the nineteenth century with the opposite being the case in the twentieth century. Within the industrial sector, light industries and industries less intensive in skilled labour and capital had a higher importance in Portugal than in Spain.
    Keywords: Iberian economic history, Structural change, European economic history, Economic growth
    JEL: N14 O47
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Anand, Sanjeev; Mishra, Mukesh Kumar
    Abstract: The task of this paper discusses the role of Marx in 20th Century and culture today. An analysis of contemporary political economy Studies works that with the new global crisis of capitalism, a new interest in Karl Marx’s works has emerged. Karl Marx—German philosopher, economist, and revolutionary—believed a just world could be achieved only through the evolution of humanity from a capitalist to a socialist economy and society. The new world economic crisis that started is the most obvious reason for the return of the interest in Marx. The paper argues that Marx’s Both a scholar and a political activist, Marx addressed a wide range of political as well as social issues, and is known for, among other things, his analysis of history. The interpretations of his theories, particularly those on political economy, have in the course of history generated decades of debate, inspired revolutions and cast him as both devil and deity in political and academic circles.
    Keywords: Karl Marx,Marxist theory,Global Economy
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Guido Alfani (Bocconi University, IGIER and Dondena Centre); Federico Tadei (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa is home today to some of the most unequal countries in the world, in Southern and Central Africa, as well as others that are close to the world average, in Western Africa. Yet, there is no consensus regarding the historical factors that led to such a situation. Given limited data on income distribution during colonial times, we do not know whether present-day inequality patterns can be traced back to the colonial period and which role was played by colonial institutions. Most of our knowledge comes from information on British colonies, while territories subjected to other colonial powers are much less well known. To address this gap, we analyze trends in income inequality for colonies in French West Africa, building social tables for Senegal and Ivory Coast during the last decades of colonial rule. We find that income inequality was high during the colonial period, because of the huge income differential between Africans and European settlers (especially in Senegal) and of high inequality within the African population (especially in the Ivory Coast). Nevertheless, it tended to reduce during colonial rule – but the trend inverted after independence. Our findings cast in a new light the connection between colonialism, extractive institutions, high inequality and inequality extraction ratios.
    Keywords: Africa, Inequality, Income Distribution, Colonization, Extractive Institutions, Social Tables.
    JEL: N17 O43
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Olivetti, Claudia (Dartmouth College); Paserman, M. Daniele (Boston University); Salisbury, Laura (York University); Weber, E. Anna (Boston University)
    Abstract: We present new findings about the relationship between marriage and socioeconomic background in the United States in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. Imputing socioeconomic status of family of origin from first names, we document a socioeconomic gradient for women in the probability of marriage and the socioeconomic status of husbands. This socioeconomic gradient becomes steeper over time. We investigate the degree to which it can be explained by occupational income divergence across geographic regions. Regional divergence explains about one half of the socioeconomic divergence in the probability of marriage, and almost all of the increase in marital sorting. Differences in urbanization rates and the share of foreign-born across states drive most of these differences, while other factors (the scholarization rate, the sex ratio and the share in manufacturing) play a smaller role.
    Keywords: marriage, assortative mating, gender, intergenerational mobility, regional convergence
    JEL: J12 J62 N31 N32 N91 N92
    Date: 2020–10
  5. By: Federico Tadei (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: It has often been claimed that the structure of export trade between Africa and Europe during the colonial period depended on the colonizer identity, with the British relying on free trade and the French employing instead monopsonistic policies. Yet, due to the lack of systematic data on colonial trade, this claim has so far remained untested. In this paper, I use recently available data on export prices from African colonies to estimate monopsonistic profit margins for British and French trading companies. The results challenge the view of the British colonizers as champions of free trade. The level of profit margins was determined much more by the local conditions in Africa than by the identity of the colonial power. The British did not necessarily rely on free trade more than the French and did so only when a stronger control of trade was not a viable option.
    Keywords: Africa, Trade Colonization, Development, Institutions, Market-Power.
    JEL: N17 F1 O43
    Date: 2020
  6. By: O'Brien, Patrick Karl; Palma, Nuno
    Abstract: From its foundation as a private corporation in 1694 the Bank of England extended large amounts of credit to support the British private economy and to support an increasingly centralized British state. The Bank helped the British state reach a position of geopolitical and economic hegemony in the international economic order. In this paper, we deploy recalibrated financial data to analyse an evolving trajectory of connections between the British economy, the state, and the Bank of England. We show how these connections contributed to form an effective and efficient fiscal-naval state and promoted the development of a system of financial intermediation for the economy. This symbiotic relationship became stronger after 1793. The evidence that we consider here shows that although the Bank was nominally a private institution and profits were paid to its shareholders, it was playing a public role well before Bagehot's doctrine.
    Keywords: Bank of England,State-building institutions,National defence
    JEL: H41 N13 N23 N43
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Sebastian Edwards
    Abstract: Milton Friedman’s famous 1953 essay, “The case for flexible exchange rates,” deals entirely with advanced nations. An interesting question is what Friedman thought about exchange rate and monetary regimes in emerging economies. In this paper I investigate how his views on the subject evolved through time. I analyze speeches, articles, and interviews. I examine his archives for correspondence and unpublished manuscripts. I show that for him flexible rates were a second best solution for middle income and poor nations. I also analyze Friedman’s role in Chile’s failed attempt, during the Pinochet regime, at using a fixed exchange rate to stabilize the economy and eliminate inflation.
    JEL: B2 B22 B3 F31 F32
    Date: 2020–10
  8. By: Naoki Odanaka
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact and influence of the memory of kurofune (black ships), iron ]armored battleships of the United States Navy led by Commodore Matthew Perry (1794 ]1858) that came to Japan in 1853, exerted over the course of industrialization in early Meiji Japan, which is the period from the Meiji Restoration (1868) to the Sino ]Japanese war (1894 ]5). Using the comparative advantage theory formalized by David Ricardo (1772 ]1823) as an analytical tool, we consider the arguments of major contemporary Japanese policymakers as the object of analysis. We have three conclusions. First, the economic policy adopted by early Meiji policymakers generally followed the comparative advantage theory. Second, their goal was not the monoculturization of the comparative advantage goods, but the heavy industrialization necessary for avoiding the colonization: export of comparative advantage goods was a means to collect money for it. Third, they regarded the development of transportation ]related industries as important because it would hasten the gmovement h of men and goods, which would lead to the increased wealth and which was symbolized by the kurofune in the collective memory.
    Date: 2020–11
  9. By: Boberg-Fazlić, Nina; Sharp, Paul
    Abstract: Despite the growing literature on the impact of immigration, little is known about the role existing migrant settlements can play for knowledge transmission. We present a case which can illustrate this important mechanism and hypothesize that nineteenth century Danish-American communities helped spread knowledge on modern dairying to rural America. From around 1880, Denmark developed rapidly and by 1890 it was a world-leading dairy producer. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, and data taken from the US census and Danish emigration archives, we find that counties with more Danes in 1880 subsequently both specialized in dairying and used more modern practices.
    Keywords: International Development, Industrial Organization
    Date: 2020–06
  10. By: Martina Cioni; Giovanni Federico; Michelangelo Vasta
    Abstract: We argue that economic history still remains a distinct field in economics. We rely on a new database of almost 3,300 economic history articles published from 2001 to 2018 in top economic history journals and in ten leading economics journals. The share of economic history articles in economics journals has increased very little, cross-citations are limited and only few authors publish in both economics and economic history journals. As expected, publishing in top five economic journals yields many more citations than in top field journals, but this is not necessarily true for other prestigious economic journals
    Keywords: bibliometric analysis, citations, economic history, economics journals
    JEL: A12 N01
    Date: 2020–10
  11. By: Maixe-Altes, J. Carles
    Abstract: From a historical perspective, the concept of reliability and computing security in the early 1970s, when electronic data transfer processes were in infancy, is especially interesting in terms of their implications in technological change and the business of banking. The cases of Japan, Spain and Germany, in terms of their national banking networks, provide an interesting field of analysis in terms of the implications that the online data transfer systems had for banking institutions. Concerns about the reliability of the computing processes and digital security were the key factors. These innovations laid the foundation for the advancement of networks and new banking services that would open up unprecedented horizons in what was to become known as service banking.
    Keywords: computer security and reliability, banks and savings banks, teleprocessing networks, EFT, ICT in banking
    JEL: G21 O33
    Date: 2020–06
  12. By: Federico Etro; Elena Stepanova
    Abstract: We study return rates on art investment using a complete dataset on repeated sales for Old Master Paintings, Modern art and Contemporary art auctioned worldwide at Christie's and Sotheby's from 2000 to 2018. We show that return rates do not depend systematically on past prices or the place of sale, but we emphasize substantial differences in returns across sectors. We also control for changes in transaction costs (buyers' premiums and artists' resale rights), characteristics of the sale (evening sales, price guarantees and past bought-ins) and news on the lots (changed attributions, public exhibitions or death of the author) that appear reflected in art returns. We confirm the absence of masterpiece effects in American, Chinese and Ethnic art. Finally, using historical data on prices during Renaissance, Baroque and Neoclassical periods, we find evidence that price changes are independent from initial prices also in the long run.
    Keywords: Art market; Mei-Moses index; Masterpiece effect; Contemporary art.
    Date: 2020–10–30
  13. By: Stefano Di Bucchianico
    Abstract: Marxian economics has been dealing extensively with the phenomenon of financialization. Among the wide variety of approaches, there are those putting at the center of the stage the issue of faltering profitability. Besides the analytical arguments, one finds in this line of research contributions linking financialization and the list of counter-elements to the Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall. Financialization is thus interpreted as the 'sixth' countertendency to that law (the ‘increase of stock capital’), referring to the list in Chapter XIV of Capital, Vol. III. We aim to provide an alternative interpretation of that last counter-factor. The proposal is based on three elements. First, the role of joint-stock companies issuance of long-term financing instruments yielding low remuneration. Second, how the average rate of profit is calculated. Third, the role of the organic composition of capital in determining differences in sectoral profitability. We eventually claim that the sixth element should be read as referring to the convergence of the rate of profit towards a uniform value and not as a prediction of the emergence of financialization
    Keywords: Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall; Karl Marx; financialization; Capital, Volume III; rate of profit
    JEL: B14 B26 B51
    Date: 2020–10
  14. By: Satish Deodhar (Indian Institute of Management (Ahmedabad)); Sriram Balasubramanian (International Monetary Fund (IMF))
    Abstract: A number of studies have been conducted in the recent past throwing light on Kautilya’s contribution to economic policy much earlier than contributions from western scholars. In his treatise Arthashastra, Kautilya informs that his contribution was based on received knowledge and gives credit to his predecessors whose specialized works have been lost with the passage of time. Fortunately, however, this knowledge is interspersed in ancient Vedic and Puranic treatises. In this paper, we conceptualize a 5-pillar sustainable economic model through the lens of the ideas emanating in these ancient treatises. These include individual economic and social well-being through Dharma; collective strength through governance mechanisms; wealth creation through Artha; sustaining wealth through market facilitation, labor and private sector participation; and building institutional capacity through coinage, money creation and public finance. Cumulatively, the 5-pillar model resonates very well with some of the Kautilyan concepts as well as modern economic policy trends.
    Keywords: Ancient Indian Texts, Arthashastra, Ramayana, Mahabharata, Economic History, History of Economic Thought, India, Kautilya, Political Economy, Sanskrit, Vedas
    JEL: B11 B15
    Date: 2020–11
  15. By: Alastair Greig; Mairi Spowage; Graeme Roy
    Abstract: In the UK, there is major economic change such as Brexit on the horizon. The impact of such change is likely to vary across UK regions. There is also a growing demand for improved regional economic analysis to help inform devolution and City Deal-type policymaking. Despite these concerns, there are no comprehensive national statistics on interregional trade in the UK. This paper fills this gap, proposing a framework for estimating interregional trade between the devolved nations of the UK: England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. We explain where gaps exist in the current UK data landscape and suggests various ways in which these could be addressed. We then apply our framework using currently available data, presenting initial results for trade between the 4 nations of the UK in 2015. Recommendations for future work are also presented, including the need to evaluate current methods for collecting trade information within the UK.
    Keywords: Interregional Trade Flows, Regional Supply Use Tables, Trade Surveys, Origin Destination Data
    JEL: F15 F17 R12
    Date: 2020–06
  16. By: Lonsky, Jakub
    Abstract: This paper studies the origins and consequences of the Russian mafia (vory-v-zakone). I web scraped a unique dataset that contains detailed biographies of more than 5,000 mafia leaders operating in 15 countries of the (former) Soviet Union at some point between 1916 and 2017. Using this data, I first show that the Russian mafia originated in the Gulag – the Soviet system of forced labor camps which housed around 18 million prisoners in the 1920s - 1950s period. Second, I document that the distance to the nearest camp is a strong negative predictor of mafia presence in Russia’s communities in the early post-Soviet period. Finally, using an instrumental variable approach which exploits the spatial distribution of the gulags, I examine the effects of mafia presence on local crime and elite violence in mid-1990s Russia. In particular, I show that the communities with mafia presence experienced a dramatic rise in crime driven by turf wars which erupted among rival clans around 1993 and persisted for much of the 1990. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that mafia presence led to a spike in attacks against businessmen, fellow criminals, as well as law enforcement officers and judges, while politically-motivated violence remained unaffected.
    JEL: K42 N40 P16 P37
    Date: 2020–11–03
  17. By: Cesaratto, Sergio (University of Siena); Di Bucchianico, Stefano (University of Siena)
    Abstract: The paper moves from Garegnani’s “core” of the classical income distribution theory to propose a deeper integration of the concept of social surplus and institutions. Our main tenet is that the social surplus does not exist independently of the institutions (or social order) that oversee its production and distribution, starting from those that prevail in the sphere of production. In this sense we supplement the surplus approach with important insights from the Polanyian approach, from economic archaeology and anthropology, but also from Sraffian authors and Sraffa’s manuscripts. Taking inspiration from Garegnani’s core while also considering its specificities, this work is a premise to the design of different economic “cores” for different stylized economic formations.
    Keywords: surplus approach; economic anthropology; economic formations; institutions; capitalism
    JEL: A12 B51 B52
    Date: 2020–10–26
  18. By: Adam, Antonis; Tsavou, Evi
    Abstract: We use a cross-country dataset on terrorism and leadership survival from 1970 through 2015 to shed light on a leader’s fate after terrorists’ strike. We provide robust evidence that incumbents in electoral authoritarian regimes face an increased hazard of exit from political power. This is contrasted with the closed authoritarian dictators that remain intact. Moreover, we fail to find a robust effect of terrorism on a leader’s survival probability in democracies. We conceive this effect to be due to the collapse of the elite coalition in autocracies after an attack, suggesting that the Dictator’s “loyal friends” betray him in the aftermath of terrorism.
    Keywords: Terrorism · Political Survival · Incumbent Leaders · Electoral Autocracies · Closed Autocracies
    JEL: P16
    Date: 2020
  19. By: Jonathon Hazell; Juan Herreño; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson
    Abstract: We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for non-tradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the Phillips curve is very flat and was very flat even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multi-region model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation since the 1990s is mostly due to long-run inflationary expectations becoming more firmly anchored.
    JEL: E30
    Date: 2020–10
  20. By: , Stone Center (The Graduate Center/CUNY); Ranaldi, Marco; Milanovic, Branko
    Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between capitalism systems and their levels of income and compositional inequality (how the composition of income between capital and labor varies along income distribution). Capitalism may be seen to range between Classical Capitalism, where the rich have only capital income, and the rest have only labor income, and Liberal Capitalism, where many people receive both capital and labor incomes. Using a new methodology and data from 47 countries over the past 25 years, we show that higher compositional inequality is associated with higher inter-personal inequality. Nordic countries are exceptional because they combine high compositional inequality with low inter-personal inequality. We speculate on the emergence of homoploutic societies where income composition may be the same for all, but Gini inequality nonetheless high, and introduce a new taxonomy of capitalist societies. (Stone Center Working Paper Series)
    Date: 2020–10–22
  21. By: Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity and weak property rights.
    Keywords: Borders,Conflict,Territory,Property Rights,Landownership,Population Pressure,Migration,Historical Homelands,Development,Africa,Voronoi Tessellation,Thiessen Tessellation
    JEL: D74 N57 O13 O17 O43 P48 Q15 Q34
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Howard, Greg (U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Liebersohn, Jack (Ohio State U)
    Abstract: This paper develops a model of the U.S. housing market that explains much of the time series of rents and house prices since World War II. House prices depend on expec- tations of future rents. We show that rents are tied to regional income inequality, and therefore, house prices are determined by how much faster incomes are growing in richer regions. This theory also matches many cross-sectional facts, including regional varia- tion in rents and prices, differing house price sensitivities to national trends, patterns of inter-state migration, and surveys of income expectations. An industry shift-share instrument provides causal evidence for our channel. The model implies that while interest rates have an ambiguous effect on house price levels, low rates increase house price volatility.
    JEL: E22 G12 R31
    Date: 2020–05
  23. By: Lee E. Ohanian; Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria; Diana Van Patten; Mark L. J. Wright
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of capital controls on international economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system. We develop a three region world economic model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World. The model allows us to quantify the impact of these controls through an open economy general equilibrium capital flows accounting framework. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactuals show that world output would have been 6% larger had the controls not been implemented. We show that the controls led to much higher welfare for the rest of the world, moderately higher welfare for Europe, but much lower welfare for the U.S. We interpret the large U.S. welfare loss as an estimate of the implicit value to the U.S. of preventing capital flight from other countries and thus promoting economic and political stability in ally and developing countries.
    Keywords: Bretton Woods; International Payments; Capital Flows
    JEL: E21 F21 F41 J20
    Date: 2020–10–21
  24. By: Jean-Bernard Chatelain (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Kirsten Ralf (INSEEC SBE - INSEEC School of Business & Economics - INSEEC Business School - Institut des hautes études économiques et commerciales Business School (INSEEC), ESCE – International Business School)
    Abstract: This paper is a study of the history of the transplant of mathematical tools using negative feedback for macroeconomic stabilization policy from 1948 to 1975 and the subsequent break of the use of control for stabilization policy which occurred from 1975 to 1993. New-classical macroeconomists selected a subset of the tools of control that favored their support of rules against discretionary stabilization policy. The Lucas critique and Kydland and Prescott's time-inconsistency were overstatements that led to the "dark ages" of the prevalence of the stabilization-policy-ine¤ectiveness idea. These overstatements were later revised following the success of the Taylor (1993) rule. J
    Keywords: Control,Stabilization Policy Ine¤ectiveness,Negative feedback,Dynamic Games Keywords: Control,Dynamic Games
    Date: 2020–10
  25. By: Cobby, Roy
    Abstract: Review of "The art of economic catch-up. Barriers, detours and leapfrogging in innovation systems", by Keun Lee, Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, Cambridge University Press, 2019, 279 pp., £64.99 (hardback), ISBN 9781108472876, £22.99 (paperback), ISBN 9781108460705, $24.00 (eBook), ISBN 9781108633000
    Keywords: development, policy space, industrial policy
    JEL: L1 O14 O25 O3
    Date: 2020–03–23
  26. By: Moustapha Aman (ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est Créteil)
    Date: 2020–10–22
  27. By: Michael Sposi (Southern Methodist University); Kei-Mu Yi (University of Houston, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and NBER); Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
    Abstract: Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multi-stage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries, particularly more in the faster growing country, consistent with the empirical pattern. The presence of GVC trade boosts capital accumulation and economic growth and magnifies dynamic gains from trade. At the same time, endogenous capital accumulation shapes comparative advantage across countries, impacting the dynamics of GVC trade: a country becoming more capital abundant concentrates more on the capital-intensive stage of the production.
    Keywords: Multistage production; International trade; Capital accumulation
    JEL: F10 F43 E22
    Date: 2020–11
  28. By: Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore (Northwestern University); Strain, Michael R. (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)
    Abstract: The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the cornerstone U.S. anti-poverty program, typically lifting over 5 million children out of poverty each year. Targeted to low-income households with children, and only available to those who work, the EITC contains strong incentives for non-workers to become employed. Most of the existing economics literature focuses on federal EITC expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper takes a longer view, studying all federal expansions since the program's inception in 1975. We find robust evidence that EITC expansions increase the extensive margin of labor supply.
    Keywords: earned income tax credit, EITC, labor supply
    JEL: J22 J28 H31 I38
    Date: 2020–10
  29. By: Vogt, Rebecca J.
    Keywords: Production Economics, Farm Management
    Date: 2020–01–08

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