nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒11‒09
thirty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Russian Capitalism. Exceptionalism versus Global Labour-Intensive Path, 1700-1914 By Alessandro Stanziani
  2. WRITING HISTORY IN THE ARCHIVE: THE CASE OF THE MOSCOW ARCHIVE OF FOREIGN COLLEGE (LATE EIGHTEENTH – EARLY NINETEENTH CENTURY) By Maya Lavrinovich
  3. Children’s work and wages in Britain, 1280-1860 By Humphries, Jane; Horrell, Sara
  4. When ‘the state made war’, what happened to economic inequality? Evidence from preindustrial Germany (c.1400-1800) By Schaff, Felix
  5. An Annual Index of Irish Industrial Production,1800-1921 By Seán Kenny; Jason Lennard; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  6. Persistence through Revolutions By Alberto Alesina; Marlon Seror; David Y. Yang; Yang You; Weihong Zeng
  7. Technological Complexity and Economic Growth of Regions By Michael Fritsch; Michael Wyrwich; ; ;
  8. Pre-Smithian concepts of Mercantilism: Quesnay, Mirabeau and Turgot By José M. Menudo
  9. Initial Conditions and Regional Performance in the Aftermath of Disruptive Shocks: The Case of East Germany after Socialism By Michael Fritsch; Michael Wyrwich
  10. Wealth Mobility in the 1860s By Brandon Dupont; Joshua L. Rosenbloom
  11. The ‘urbanization of water’ in La Paz, Bolivia: Historical and conceptual perspectives By Juan Manuel ARBONA
  12. Even Keel and the Great Inflation By Victoria Consolvo; Owen F. Humpage; Sanchita Mukherjee
  13. L'originalisme des juges fédéraux américains ou l'établissement de fondements constitutionnels au libéralisme économique depuis les années 1970 By Thierry Kirat; Frédéric Marty
  14. Trajectoires contextuelles et inégalités spatiales d’une génération de franciliens (1940-1950) à partir de données d’enquête By Guillaume Le Roux; Catherine Bonvalet; Arnaud Bringé
  15. Economía y nación - Una breve historia de Colombia By Salomón Kalmanovitz Krauter
  16. Perfiles individuales y tipologías sociales en Cali: 1950 - 1953 By Rodríguez Caporalli Enrique; Sanchez Salcedo José Fernando
  17. Historical Data: Where to Find Them, How to Use Them By Paola Giuliano; Andrea Matranga
  18. Navigating to subsistence: the gendered struggles in the postwar everyday and their implications for peace By Stavrevska, Elena B.
  19. THE PRE-KAUTILYAN PERIOD: CRUCIBLE OF PROTO ECONOMIC IDEAS AND PRACTICES By Deodhar, Satish Y.
  20. Oil-Price Uncertainty and the U.K. Unemployment Rate: A Forecasting Experiment with Random Forests Using 150 Years of Data By Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch; Afees A. Salisu
  21. Bear, Bull, Sidewalk, and Crash: The Evolution of the US Stock Market Using Over a Century of Daily Data By Shixuan Wang; Rangan Gupta; Yue-Jun Zhang
  22. Accounting for Growth in Spain, 1850-2019 By Leandro Prados de la Escosura; Joan R. Rosés
  23. The Impact of the ‘Braddon Blot’ on Australia’s Tariff Structure, 1901-1910: A Leviathanic Analysis By William Coleman
  24. The influence of financial markets on accounting standards: A historical reading By Issam Benhayoun; M. Marghich Abdellatif
  25. Off the Grid... and Back Again? The Recent Evolution of American Street Network Planning and Design By Geoff Boeing
  26. The American knowledge economy By Soskice, David
  27. Synchronization of Prefectural Business Cycles in Japan 1978-2018 By Makoto Muto; Tamotsu Onozaki; Yoshitaka Saiki
  28. Scenario-decomposition Solution Framework for Nonseparable Stochastic Control Problems By Xin Huang; Duan Li; Daniel Zhuoyu Long
  29. Railway Research and Development and the Realities of the 1980's By Shea, R.A.
  30. Porqué Colombia no exporta más By Jorge García-García; David C. López-Valenzuela; Enrique Montes-Uribe
  31. The Federal Effort to Desegregate Southern Hospitals and the Black-White Infant Mortality Gap By D. Mark Anderson; Kerwin Kofi Charles; Daniel I. Rees

  1. By: Alessandro Stanziani (CRH - Centre de Recherches Historiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: After reviewing the historiography of the Russian economic path, this chapter discusses the period running from the early eighteenth century to the abolition of serfdom (1861) and World War I; it argues that Russian economic dynamics were more important than is usually held in terms of rate of growth, that they were labour-intensive and mostly based on modernizing peasants and landlords. The problem was that these solutions were eventually compatible with the first, but not the second industrial revolution.
    Keywords: serfdom,proto-industry,labour intensification,backwardness,coercion,Russia,economic history,eighteenth century,nineteenth century
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02956161&r=all
  2. By: Maya Lavrinovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper addresses the problem of interacting of visual and written components for creating of historical narrativity, and its impact on the social practices of the archival employees in the late 18th – early 19th century. The research is focused on the case of Moscow Archive of Foreign College, where a gallery of those who administered Russian foreign affairs had been collected since 1780s. This gallery was juxtaposed by a voluminous chronicle that united the Archive and the College into an indivisible institution and thus emphasized the role of the archival officials in the state affairs.
    Keywords: Russia, 18th century, Moscow Archive of the College of the Foreign Affairs, the heads of the Russian foreign policy, history writing, Aleksei Malinovskii
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:191/hum/2020&r=all
  3. By: Humphries, Jane; Horrell, Sara
    Abstract: Child workers are commonplace in historical sources but rarely feature in the grand narratives of economic history. Recently, however, new theories have identified changes in children’s economic value as key to economic and demographic trends in Britain but there has been little data with which to examine these putative effects. Prompted by these ideas, we present data on payments, both in cash and in kind, made to 3873 children from 1280 to 1860. Children’s wages show some similarities in their trajectories to those found for adults. Real wages increased after the Black Death and stayed at a high level through the C16th; but they then suffered a decline which was only checked in the mid-C18th and not reversed even when industrialisation was underway. Indeed, remuneration for child workers progressively fell away from that of unskilled adult males from the C16th. Until the late C17th, children working on annual contracts suffered the same disadvantage compared with day labourers as found for adults. Regression analysis controls for variation in our sample over time and reveals predictable relationships with key variables such as age, industry, sector and region. Children were an integral part of historic labour markets and their wages reflected economic factors. Knowledge of children’s work and wages helps illuminate aspects of recent theories on Britain’s historical growth.
    Keywords: chIldren's work and pay; labor markets; Britain; long-run
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2019–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100510&r=all
  4. By: Schaff, Felix
    Abstract: What was the impact of military conflict on economic inequality? This paper presents new evidence about the relationship between military conflicts and economic inequality in preindustrial Germany, between 1400 and 1800. I argue that ordinary military conflicts increased economic inequality. Warfare raised the financial needs of towns in preindustrial times, leading to more resource extraction from the population. This resource extraction happened via inegalitarian channels, such as regressive taxation. The Thirty Years’ War was a unique exception to that pattern but not the rule. To test this argument a novel panel dataset is constructed combining information about economic inequality in 72 localities and 687 conflicts over four centuries. The analysis suggests that there existed two countervailing effects of conflicts on inequality: destruction and extraction. The Thirty Years’ War was indeed a “Great Leveller” (Scheidel 2017), but the many ordinary conflicts – paradigmatic of life in the preindustrial world– were continuous reinforcers of economic inequality.
    Keywords: wealth; inequality; warfare; institutions; political economy; Germany
    JEL: N33 D31 I32 N43 H20
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107046&r=all
  5. By: Seán Kenny; Jason Lennard; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke (Division of Social Science)
    Abstract: We construct an annual index of Irish industrial output for 1800-1921, the period during which the entire island was in a political Union with Great Britain. We also construct a new industrial price index. Irish industrial output grew by an average of 1.4 per cent per annum over the period as a whole, and by 1.8 per cent per annum between 1800 and the outbreak of World War I. Industrial growth was more rapid than previously thought before the Famine, and slower afterwards. While Ireland did not experience deindustrialization either before the Famine or afterwards, its industrial growth was disappointing when considered in a comparative perspective. JEL codes: E01, N13, N14
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20200057&r=all
  6. By: Alberto Alesina (Harvard University, NBER, CEPR, and IGIER Bocconi); Marlon Seror (University of Bristol, Paris School of Economics and DIAL); David Y. Yang (Harvard University and NBER); Yang You (Harvard University); Weihong Zeng (zengwh@mail.xjtu.edu.cn)
    Abstract: Can efforts to eradicate inequality in wealth and education eliminate intergenerational persistence of socioeconomic status? The Chinese Communist Revolution in the 1950s and Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976 aimed to do exactly that. Using newly digitized archival records and contemporary census and household survey data, we show that the revolutions were effective in homogenizing the population economically in the short run. However, the pattern of inequality that characterized the pre-revolution generation re-emerges today. Almost half a century after the revolutions, individuals whose grandparents belonged to the pre-revolution elite earn 16 percent more and have completed more than 11 percent additional years of schooling than those from non-elite households. In addition, individuals with pre-revolution elite grandparents hold different values: they are less averse to inequality, more individualistic, more pro-market, and more likely to see hard work as critical to success. Through intergenerational transmission of values, socioeconomic conditions thus survived one of the most aggressive attempts to eliminate differences in the population and to foster mobility.
    Date: 2020–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt2020-09&r=all
  7. By: Michael Fritsch; Michael Wyrwich; ; ;
    Abstract: We investigate how initial conditions that existed in East Germany at the end of the socialist regime impact regional development during the turbulent shock transition to a market economic system. Our investigation spans a period of almost 30 years. Both the self-employment rate (an indication of the existence of a pre-socialist entrepreneurial tradition) and the share of the workforce with a tertiary degree have a strong positive effect on regional development. We conclude that knowledge and a tradition of entrepreneurship have long-run positive effects on development in regions that face disruptive shocks. Entrepreneurship and knowledge play a less important role for development across West German regions, where no significant shocks occurred.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, knowledge, economic development, history, transformation, East Germany
    JEL: L26 R11 N93 N94
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2050&r=all
  8. By: José M. Menudo (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: Since mercantilism as an idea has been formulated and re-formulated, it seems necessary to examine the earliest constructions—i.e., Quesnay’s système de marchands, Mirabeau’s système mercantile and Turgot’s système de monopole—which have not been analysed as extensively as Smith's mercantile system. We demonstrate that these systems differ greatly in all three cases, as do the intellectual references associated with mercantilism and the issue that gives rise to the appearance of the mercantile system. There is greater similarity in the principles of these systems, although the differences are so relevant that a synthesis of the three cases would be practically impossible.
    Keywords: Mercantilism, History of economic thought, Economic Development.
    JEL: B11 B3 O1
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:20.07&r=all
  9. By: Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany)
    Abstract: We investigate how initial conditions that existed in East Germany at the end of the socialist regime impact regional development during the turbulent shock transition to a market economic system. Our investigation spans a period of almost 30 years. Both the self-employment rate (an indication of the existence of a pre-socialist entrepreneurial tradition) and the share of the workforce with a tertiary degree have a strong positive effect on regional development. We conclude that knowledge and a tradition of entrepreneurship have long-run positive effects on development in regions that face disruptive shocks. Entrepreneurship and knowledge play a less important role for development across West German regions, where no significant shocks occurred.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, knowledge, economic development, history, transformation, East Germany
    JEL: L26 R11 N93 N94
    Date: 2020–10–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2020-017&r=all
  10. By: Brandon Dupont; Joshua L. Rosenbloom
    Abstract: We offer new evidence on the regional dynamics of wealth holding in the United States over the Civil War decade based on a hand-linked random sample of wealth holders drawn from the 1860 census. Despite the wealth shock caused by emancipation, we find that patterns of wealth mobility were broadly similar for northern and southern residents in 1860. Looking at the determinants of individual wealth holding in 1870, we find that the elasticity with respect to 1860 wealth was quite low in both regions—consistent with high levels of wealth mobility.
    JEL: N11 N31 N91
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27968&r=all
  11. By: Juan Manuel ARBONA
    Abstract: This essay analyzes the historical production of water inequities in the city of La Paz, Bolivia. It relies on the concept of ‘urbanization of water’ to present historical evidence and conceptual reflections about the justifications of actions and naturalization of outcomes regarding water inequities.
    Keywords: Bolivie
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2020–10–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en11674&r=all
  12. By: Victoria Consolvo; Owen F. Humpage; Sanchita Mukherjee
    Abstract: During the early part of the Great Inflation (1965-1975), the Federal Reserve undertook even-keel operations to assist the US Treasury’s coupon security sales. Accordingly, the central bank delayed any tightening of monetary policy and permanently injected reserves into the banking system. Using real-time Taylor-type and McCallum-like reaction functions, we show that the Fed routinely undertook these operations only when it was otherwise tightening monetary policy. Using a quantity-equation framework, we show that the Federal Reserve’s even-keel actions added approximately one percentage point to the overall 5.1 percent average annual inflation rate over these years.
    Keywords: Even Keel; Great Inflation; Federal Reserve; US Treasury
    JEL: E5 N1 F3
    Date: 2020–10–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:88977&r=all
  13. By: Thierry Kirat (Université Paris-Dauphine; PSL Research Université; IRISSO CNRS); Frédéric Marty (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS)
    Abstract: L'originalisme qui s'est développé dans la jurisprudence américaine depuis les années 1970 vise à fonder les décisions des juridictions sur la recherche de l'intention du législateur à partir de l'histoire ou à partir de l'analyse textuelle du vocabulaire utilisé. Si l'originalisme vise à réduire la marge de discrétion du juge et donc à assurer la cohérence et la prévisibilité des décisions, il est souvent considéré comme porteur d'un biais conservateur. Cette contribution montre comment les différentes variantes d'originalisme ont effectivement conduit à donner un fondement constitutionnel à des politiques plus conservatrices depuis les années 1970. Elle vise également à distinguer les différentes approches originalistes (telles que portées par Robert Bork, Clarence Thomas ou Antonin Scalia) de l'approche propre à l'analyse économique du droit, telle que portée par Richard Posner.
    Keywords: originalisme, antitrust, Ecole de Chicago
    JEL: K10 K20 K30 L41 N42
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2020-43&r=all
  14. By: Guillaume Le Roux; Catherine Bonvalet; Arnaud Bringé
    Abstract: Dans les grandes villes, les disparités urbaines se traduisent en partie par une inégale répartition des différents groupes sociaux dans l’espace géographique mais surtout corollairement par des inégalités d’accessibilité des lieux de résidence aux lieux de travail, aux services, aux commerces, aux équipements culturels etc. Pour étudier les phénomènes de ségrégation et d’inégalités d’accès aux ressources au sein de l’Ile-de-France, nous proposons de suivre, à partir de l’enquête Biographies et Entourage, les trajectoires géographiques et résidentielles de générations d’habitants de la région (1940-1950) au regard de la distribution de différentes ressources (emplois, transports, éducation). Après avoir retracé les évolutions depuis 1960 de la composition sociale des communes, de la distribution des emplois, de l’offre de transport et d’établissements du secondaire au sein de l’Ile-de-France, nous montrons comment elles interagrissent avec les trajectoires géographiques des individus selon leur catégorie sociale. Les résultats montrent une association forte entre positions sociales et localisations résidentielles relatives à ces ressources tout au long de la vie, plus ou moins importante selon l’âge ou le type de ressources étudiés. Des facteurs clés de (re)production des inégalités spatiales sont mis en évidence tels que l’origine sociale et l’origine géographique.
    Keywords: trajectoires résidentielles, inégalités spatiales, accès aux ressources, région Ile-de-France, analyse de séquences, Enquête "Biographies et Entourage", ANALYSE SPATIALE / SPATIAL ANALYSIS, ORIGINE SOCIALE / SOCIAL ORIGIN, MOBILITE GEOGRAPHIQUE / GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, EMPLOI / EMPLOYMENT, ENQUETE / SURVEYS, PARCOURS DE VIE / LIFE COURSE, TRANSPORT / TRANSPORT, LIEU DE RESIDENCE / PLACE OF RESIDENCE, LIEU D'ORIGINE / PLACE OF ORIGIN, EDUCATION / EDUCATION, ILE-DE-FRANCE (REGION) / ILE-DE-FRANCE, MOBILITE RESIDENTIELLE / RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY, INEGALITE SOCIALE / SOCIAL INEQUALITY
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:axvgmlxnonk2tinfzbcn&r=all
  15. By: Salomón Kalmanovitz Krauter
    Abstract: Economía y nación no es solamente un libro de referencia académica en historia económica de Colombia. Es sobre todo un ensayo de interpretación y explicación de las razones que estarían detrás de la explosión de movimientos sociales que experimentó el país a lo largo de su historia. Para entender ese presente en el que se escribió la primera edición del libro, el autor propone una ambiciosa historia del desempeño económico, social y político del país. Para ello, estudia la forma en que se ha tratado de transformar una sociedad agraria en una sociedad con formas de producción modernas. A través de datos originales y de fuentes diversas, esta obra habla de la formación de una sociedad en una búsqueda permanente de su proyecto. Analiza críticamente sus instituciones y sus logros materiales, como quien habla de los éxitos y los fracasos de un ideal en construcción. En este libro reconocemos, mirando hacia el pasado, que se ha avanzado mucho, pero que se pudo avanzar de una mejor manera y más lejos. Esta edición definitiva tiene un valor especial: posibilita comprender la evolución de uno de los intelectuales más importantes de las últimas décadas en el país. Leerla nos permite entender la transformación intelectual de Salomón Kalmanovitz, que lo llevó de un intento de interpretación “materialista histórica” en su primera edición, hasta una incorporación paulatina del institucionalismo económico en las últimas ediciones.
    Keywords: Economía, Colombia
    Date: 2020–04–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000490:018488&r=all
  16. By: Rodríguez Caporalli Enrique; Sanchez Salcedo José Fernando
    Abstract: El presente texto tiene como objetivo explorar el tipo de perfiles individuales que produjo la sociedad caleña a mediados del siglo XX. Para ello, se propone una investigación que discute las principales tesis sobre este tema, propuestas por Danilo Martuccelli en su libro “¿Existen individuos en el Sur?”4. En concreto, se retoman los cuatro perfiles de individuos que propone este autor para caracterizar a los individuos en América Latina: el jugador asimétrico, el actor metonímico, el oportunista vulnerable y aquel en el que predomina la socialidad interior. De lo que se trata, entonces, es de adaptar estos planteamientos sobre los individuos latinoamericanos a la realidad de Cali, mediante una revisión conceptual que ajuste las pretensiones más generales de Martuccelli al contexto específico de la investigación, a mediados del siglo XX, un periodo poco explorado por la sociología y la historia en la ciudad y en el país. También se pretende definir, conforme los hallazgos lo permitan, nuevos perfiles individuales distintos a los propuestos por Martuccelli. Para la investigación en curso se acudirá a la consulta de diferentes fuentes documentales (prensa, literatura, documentos oficiales, revistas, etc.), pero este informe específico se refiere solamente a los hallazgos encontrados en el diario Relator.
    Keywords: Perfiles individuales, siglo XX, sociedad caleña
    Date: 2020–01–31
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000149:018491&r=all
  17. By: Paola Giuliano; Andrea Matranga
    Abstract: The use of historical data has become a standard tool in economics, serving three main purposes: to examine the influence of the past on current economic outcomes; to use unique natural experiments to test modern economic theories; and to use modern economic theories to refine our understanding of important historical events. In this chapter, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the types of historical data most commonly used in economic research and discuss a variety of issues that they raise, such as the constant change in national and administrative borders; the reshuffling of ethnic groups due to migration, colonialism, natural disasters, and many other forces. We also point out which methodological advances allow economists to overcome or minimize these problems.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27967&r=all
  18. By: Stavrevska, Elena B.
    Abstract: In developing a feminist analysis of postwar political economic practices and institutions, my contribution builds on previous Critical Perspectives forums in following Cynthia Enloe's call (2015, 438) to make sense of people's gendered political lives while embracing their “messiness” and Rahel Kunz's (2017) argument for placing life stories at the center of analysis. It focuses on the everyday life of female petty traders involved in the coping economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), including those working at the (in)famous Arizona market in Brčko. By taking postwar gendered everyday experiences seriously, my contribution highlights the need for a gender-just, holistic approach to designing postwar reparative justice measures, labor market interventions, and integration of coping economic practices.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107044&r=all
  19. By: Deodhar, Satish Y.
    Abstract: A number of studies have been conducted in the recent past throwing light on Kautilya’s contribution to economic policy. In his treatise Arthashastra, Kautilya informs that his contribution was based on received knowledge and gives credit to his predecessors. Unfortunately, the specialized works of the predecessors have been lost with the passage of time. I have attempted to scout and collate the economic notions that have appeared interspersed in the available Sanskrit treatises written prior to Arthashastra. Kautilya’s Arthashastra must have evolved from the crucible of such literature. In this context I discuss the four-fold classifications of purusharthas, ashramas, and varnas referenced in ancient texts and their attendant economic implications in the society then. I also cover the economic notions at the macro and institutional level which include policies of a welfare state, practical ideas about public goods, market facilitation, property rights, labour relations and unions, coinage, taxation, and budget deficit.
    Date: 2020–10–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14637&r=all
  20. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany); Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria)
    Abstract: We analyze the predictive role of oil-price uncertainty for changes in the UK unemployment rate using more than a century of monthly data covering the period from 1859 to 2020. To this end, we use a machine-learning technique known as random forests. Random forests render it possible to model the potentially nonlinear link between oil-price uncertainty and subsequent changes in the unemployment rate in an entirely data-driven way, where it is possible to control for the impact of several other macroeconomic variables and other macroeconomic and financial uncertainties. Upon estimating random forests on rolling-estimation windows, we find evidence that oil-price uncertainty predicts out-ofsample changes in the unemployment rate, where the relative importance of oil-price uncertainty has undergone substantial swings during the history of the modern petroleum industry that started with the drilling of the first oil well at Titusville (Pennsylvania, United States) in 1859.
    Keywords: Machine learning, Random forests, Oil uncertainty, Macroeconomic and financial uncertainties, Unemployment rate, United Kingdom
    JEL: C22 C53 E24 E43 F31 G10 Q02
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202095&r=all
  21. By: Shixuan Wang (Department of Economics, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AA, United Kingdom); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Yue-Jun Zhang (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA)
    Abstract: In this paper, we employ a four-state hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM), which outperforms a hidden Markov model (HMM), to identify market conditions of the Dow Jones Industrial stock market over the daily period of 16th of February, 1885 to 4th of June, 2020. Our results indicate that the four hidden states represent bear-, bull-, sidewalk-, and crash-markets, which in turn appropriately captures the various major historical events during the period of study. Our results have implications for investors and policymakers.
    Keywords: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Stock Returns, Hidden (semi-)Markov Models
    JEL: C22 G10
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202097&r=all
  22. By: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III and CEPR); Joan R. Rosés (LSE and CEPR)
    Abstract: The current productivity slowdown has stimulated research on the causes of growth. We investigate here the proximate determinants of long-term growth in Spain. Over the last 170 years output per hour worked raised nearly 24-fold dominating GDP growth, while hours worked per person shrank by one-fourth and population trebled. Half of labour productivity growth resulted from capital deepening, one-third from total factor productivity, and labour quality contributed the rest. In phases of acceleration (the 1920s and 1954-85), TFP was labour productivity’s main driver complemented by capital deepening. Since Spain’s accession to the European Union (1985), labour productivity has sharply decelerated as capital deepening slowed down and TFP stagnated. Up to the Global Financial Crisis (2008) GDP growth mainly resulted from an increase in hours worked per person and, to a less extent, from sluggish labour productivity coming mostly from weak capital deepening. Institutional constraints help explain the labour productivity slowdown.
    Keywords: Growth, Labour Productivity, Capital Deepening, Labour Quality, Total Factor Productivity, Spain
    JEL: D24 E01 O47 N13 N14
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0198&r=all
  23. By: William Coleman
    Abstract: For ten years after the federation of Australian states in 1901, 75 percent of the customs and excise duties collected by the Commonwealth was, by constitutional guarantee, transferred to the States. The paper analyses the impact of this guarantee on tariff rates by modelling the Commonwealth as a revenue maximiser, incentivised by electoral considerations to a spend a certain amount of revenue on the public rather than itself. The model implies that ‘low’ tariff rates would have been made still lower by the guarantee, and ‘high’ rates still higher.
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:092&r=all
  24. By: Issam Benhayoun (ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); M. Marghich Abdellatif (ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah)
    Abstract: Globalization of businesses and financial market have brought to light what is called nowadays International accounting standardization. The latter has seen the light since the initiative of Henry Benson to gather many countries around the world to prepare a core of accounting standards that could be possible to apply globally, or at least by countries who had participated in their preparation. The main purpose of this study is to analyze this phenomenon from a historical standpoint to help answer how international accounting standardization were developed and under which conditions. The main findings indicate that international accounting standardization was developed based on financial markets requirements and needs rather than purely accounting matters.
    Abstract: La mondialisation des entreprises et des marchés financiers ont mis en lumière ce que l'on appelle aujourd'hui la normalisation comptable internationale. Cette dernière a vu le jour depuis l'initiative d'Henry Benson de rassembler de nombreux pays à travers le monde pour préparer un noyau de normes comptables qu'il serait possible d'appliquer globalement, ou du moins par les pays ayant participé à leur élaboration. L'objectif principal de cette étude est d'analyser ce phénomène d'un point de vue historique pour aider à comprendre comment la normalisation comptable internationale a été développée et dans quelles conditions. Les principales constatations indiquent que la normalisation comptable internationale a été élaborée en fonction des exigences et des besoins des marchés financiers plutôt que sur des questions purement comptables.
    Keywords: Harmonization,International standardization,accounting standards,IASB,IFRS,Harmonisation,normalisation internationale,normes comptables
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02955580&r=all
  25. By: Geoff Boeing
    Abstract: This morphological study identifies and measures recent nationwide trends in American street network design. Historically, orthogonal street grids provided the interconnectivity and density that researchers identify as important factors for reducing vehicular travel and emissions and increasing road safety and physical activity. During the 20th century, griddedness declined in planning practice alongside declines in urban form compactness, density, and connectivity as urbanization sprawled around automobile dependence. But less is known about comprehensive empirical trends across US neighborhoods, especially in recent years. This study uses public and open data to examine tract-level street networks across the entire US. It develops theoretical and measurement frameworks for a quality of street networks defined here as griddedness. It measures how griddedness, orientation order, straightness, 4-way intersections, and intersection density declined from 1940 through the 1990s while dead-ends and block lengths increased. However, since 2000, these trends have rebounded, shifting back toward historical design patterns. Yet, despite this rebound, when controlling for topography and built environment factors all decades post-1939 are associated with lower griddedness than pre-1940. Higher griddedness is associated with less car ownership - which itself has a well-established relationship with vehicle kilometers traveled and greenhouse gas emissions - while controlling for density, home and household size, income, jobs proximity, street network grain, and local topography. Interconnected grid-like street networks offer practitioners an important tool for curbing car dependence and emissions. Once established, street patterns determine urban spatial structure for centuries, so proactive planning is essential.
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.04771&r=all
  26. By: Soskice, David
    JEL: J1 N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2020–10–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107102&r=all
  27. By: Makoto Muto; Tamotsu Onozaki; Yoshitaka Saiki
    Abstract: Two decades of studies have found significant regional differences in the timing of transitions in national business cycles and their durations. Earlier studies detect regional synchronization during business cycle expansions and contractions in Europe (Grayer, 2007), the U.S. (Hamilton and Owyang, 2012; Chung, 2016), and Japan (Wall, 2007). We investigate those findings more comprehensively for Japan. We draw upon business cycle data spanning 1978-2018 for all 47 Japanese prefectures and measure synchronization between them using a method prominent in nonlinear sciences but infrequently applied in business cycle studies. Our findings confirm that synchronization in Japan's prefectural business cycles increased during contractions and decreased during expansions throughout the period studied.
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.08835&r=all
  28. By: Xin Huang; Duan Li; Daniel Zhuoyu Long
    Abstract: When stochastic control problems do not possess separability and/or monotonicity, the dynamic programming pioneered by Bellman in 1950s fails to work as a time-decomposition solution method. Such cases have posted a great challenge to the control society in both theoretical foundation and solution methodologies for many years. With the help of the progressive hedging algorithm proposed by Rockafellar and Wets in 1991, we develop a novel scenario-decomposition solution framework for stochastic control problems which could be nonseparable and/or non-monotonic, thus extending the reach of stochastic optimal control. We discuss then some of its promising applications, including online quadratic programming problems and dynamic portfolio selection problems with smoothing properties.
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.08985&r=all
  29. By: Shea, R.A.
    Keywords: Public Economics
    Date: 2020–10–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf21:305988&r=all
  30. By: Jorge García-García (Banco de la República de Colombia); David C. López-Valenzuela (Banco de la República de Colombia); Enrique Montes-Uribe (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: Este trabajo explica cómo los costos de comerciar (protección y otros costos) desestimulan las exportaciones manufactureras y por qué Colombia exporta mayoritariamente productos primarios. Para esto, además de una revisión de literatura y una descripción del desempeño exportador colombiano, se presenta una metodología que mide la protección total causada por el arancel y las medidas no arancelarias (MNA) y que permite generar una serie de la protección verdadera para el período 1950-2019. Los resultados muestran que el país no ha explotado su potencial exportador de manufacturas porque los incentivos para hacerlo han sido magros, un resultado de la alta protección a la producción local, de una infraestructura escasa y de unos servicios logísticos costosos. **** ABSTRACT: This paper explains how trade costs (protection and other costs) discourage manufacturing exports and why they are the main reason that Colombia’s main exports are basic commodities. The paper reviews the literature on exports in Colombia, shows how the volume and composition of exports evolved since 1950, proposes a methodology to calculate the protection to the manufacturing sector, estimates the total rate of protection to manufacturing and the domestic terms of trade between protected and export activities in manufacturing, examines the role of export subsidies in promoting exports, and discusses the feasibility of subsidizing exports to offset the negative impact of protection on the incentives to export. The paper concludes that Colombia has not exported more because of the poor incentives to do so, caused by the high protection to domestic production and high costs of logistic services which are explained partially by the country inadequate infrastructure.
    Keywords: Costos de comerciar, Política comercial, Protección, Medidas no Arancelarias, Trade costs, Trade policy, Protection, Non-Tariff Measures
    JEL: F14 F10 G38
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1139&r=all
  31. By: D. Mark Anderson; Kerwin Kofi Charles; Daniel I. Rees
    Abstract: In 1966, Southern hospitals were barred from participating in the Medicare program unless they discontinued their long-standing practice of racial segregation. Using data from five Deep South states and exploiting county-level variation in Medicare certification dates, we find that gaining access to an ostensibly integrated hospital had no effect on the Black-White infant mortality gap, although it may have discouraged small numbers of Black mothers from giving birth at home attended by a midwife. These results are consistent with descriptions of the federal hospital desegregation campaign as producing only cosmetic changes and illustrate the limits of anti-discrimination policies imposed upon reluctant actors.
    JEL: I1 I14 J1 N12
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27970&r=all

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