nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒10‒05
thirty-six papers chosen by

  1. Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic History and the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19 By Vellore Arthi; John Parman
  2. On the Origins of the Idea of Ending Poverty By Martin Ravallion
  3. Should the History of Macroeconomics Steer Cear of the Fray or be Partisan? A Critical Essay on Banks and Finance in Modern Macroeconomics by B. Ingrao and C. Sardoni By Michel De Vroey
  4. ECLA, Washington and Inter-American Economic Relations, 1948–1968 By Cohen, Isaac
  5. Long-Term Effects of Equal Sharing: Evidence from Inheritance Rules for Land By Bartels, Charlotte; Jäger, Simon; Obergruber, Natalie
  6. Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública By Fedesarrollo
  7. The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook By Congressional Budget Office
  8. Delay and dilution in the implementation of environmental norms: business groups and the regulation of car emissions in Switzerland in the 1970s–1980s By Pitteloud, Sabine
  9. Los ciclos internacionales y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana By José Antonio Ocampo
  10. Lessons From The Evolution Of The Accounting Tool: From The Genesis Up To The Roman Period By Christos Tsatsis
  11. Fedesarrollo y la política monetaria By Roberto Steiner
  12. Tecnocracia y Modernización: Reflexiones con motivo del Aniversario Número 50 de Fedesarrollo By Rodrigo Botero M.
  13. US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic By Peter Ganong; Pascal Noel; Joseph Vavra
  14. Celebrando 50 años de Fedesarrollo By Ximena Cadena
  15. Trayectoria e influencia de los Modelos de Equilibrio General de Fedesarrollo By Eduardo Lora
  16. Colombia: ventajas y requisitos de la flotación cambiaria By Juan José Echavarría
  17. The development and challenges of aid relationships: where is international aid heading? By Brett, Edwin
  18. After 25 Years as Faithful Members of the EU. Public Support for the Euro and Trust in the ECB in Austria, Finland and Sweden By Roth, Felix; Jonung, Lars
  19. En homenaje a Guillermo Perry Rubio By Guillermo Perry
  20. El gasto social enfocado a las familias más pobres By Miguel Urrutia
  21. Fedesarrollo y la economía del narcotráfico By Carlos Caballero
  22. Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation? By Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena
  23. Trade unions and professional associations as civil society actors working on the issues of labour rights and social dialogue in Georgia By Ana Diakonidze; Barbora Holubová; Marta Kahancová
  24. Payments and the Pandemic By Loretta J. Mester
  25. La influencia de Fedesarrollo: perspectivas y retos By Luis Fernando Mejía
  26. Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo et Michael Kremer L'Economie du développement gagne ses lettres de noblesse By Henri-Louis Vedie
  27. Political Instability and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from the 1981 Military Coup in Spain By Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa; Gonzalez, Libertad
  28. Brunner Versus Friedman: Diverging Aspirations For The Monetarist Project By Pierrick Clerc; Michel De Vroey
  29. Fedesarrollo y el Ministerio de Hacienda: 50 años de simbiosis deliberante By Mauricio Cárdenas
  30. Global Yield Distributions since 1960 By Hendricks, Nathan P.; Stigler, Matthieu M.
  31. Matching Compustat Data to the Business Register 1976 - 2016 By Cristina Tello-Trillo; Sean Streiff
  32. Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en la política agropecuaria By Roberto Junguito
  33. Visualizing Income Distribution in the United States By Humberto Barreto; Sang T. Truong
  34. Trends in Absolute Income Mobility in North America and Europe By Manduca, Robert; Hell, Maximilian; Adermon, Adrian; Blanden, Jo; Bratberg, Espen; Gielen, Anne C.; van Kipepersluis, Hans; Lee, Keun Bok; Machin, Stephen; Munk, Martin D.; Nybom, Martin; Ostrovsky, Yuri; Rahman, Sumaiya; Sirniö, Outi
  35. Breadwinner, bread maker. Gender division of labor and intrahousehold inequality in 1930s rural Italy By Mancini, Giulia
  36. Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era By Colin Weiss

  1. By: Vellore Arthi; John Parman
    Abstract: How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost—taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern pandemics. What evidence we do have about other modern pandemics is largely limited to short-run impacts. Consequently, recent experience can do little to help us anticipate and respond to COVID-19’s potential long-run impact on individuals over decades and even generations. History, however, offers a solution. Historical crises offer closer analogues to COVID-19 in each of its key dimensions—as a global pandemic, as a global recession—and offer the runway necessary to study the life-course and intergenerational outcomes. In this paper, we review the evidence on the long-run effects on health, labor, and human capital of both historical pandemics (with a focus on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic) and historical recessions (with a focus on the Great Depression). We conclude by discussing how past crises can inform our approach to COVID-19—helping tell us what to look for, what to prepare for, and what data we ought to collect now.
    JEL: I1 I3 J1 J6 N1 N3
    Date: 2020–09
  2. By: Martin Ravallion
    Abstract: The late 18th century saw the intellectual germ of the idea of “ending poverty,” but the idea did not get far in economics or policy making until much more recently. Over the 19th century, poverty rates fell substantially in Western Europe and North America, and we started to see mainstream advocates of ending chronic poverty, and policies for doing so. There was an explosion of interest in the idea from around 1960, with policy responses in many countries, including America. In the post-Colonial period, the newly independent states were keen to see an end to poverty. From the 1990s, development agencies began to identify this as their overarching objective. The U.N.’s first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving the 1990 poverty rate by 2015 was achieved ahead of time. The U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals came to include ending extreme poverty by 2030. This is more ambitious than MDG1, and more politically challenging. Economic growth in poor countries is likely to remain important, but the policy emphasis has shifted to redistributive interventions, though these will require a deeper reach to the poorest if we are to see the end of poverty, judged by any chosen poverty line.
    JEL: B00 I30
    Date: 2020–09
  3. By: Michel De Vroey (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: My review of Ingrao and Sardoni’s book paper focuses on its Part II, entitled “From the Neoclassical Synthesis to New Keynesian Economics.” My criticisms amount to three. First, I disagree with Ingrao and Sardoni’s account of the twists and turns that have occurred in modern macroeconomics. Often, where they see continuity, I see cleavage; where they see cleavage, I see continuity. Second, I put forward that the result of the 2008 recession is that DSGE economists were led to zero in on the hitherto neglected issue of the workings of the financial sector and its integration in their models. Hence, Ingrao and Sardoni’s conclusion of failure must be revised. Third, I want to bring out that the internal history of economics can be written in two ways: the approach can be partisan or steer clear of the fray. As I am in favor of the latter, I regret that Ingrao and Sardoni have adopted the former.
    Keywords: History of macroeconomics, banking finance
    JEL: B10 B22 B26
    Date: 2020–07–07
  4. By: Cohen, Isaac
    Abstract: Inter-American economic relations underwent significant changes since the end of World War II, with the creation of hemispheric institutions, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA). This document examines two decades of interaction on economic affairs between the Latin American and United States governments, in the setting provided by these hemispheric institutions.
    Date: 2020–09–23
  5. By: Bartels, Charlotte (DIW Berlin); Jäger, Simon (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Obergruber, Natalie
    Abstract: What are the long-term economic effects of a more equal distribution of wealth? We exploit variation in historical inheritance rules for land in Germany. In some German areas, inherited land was to be shared or divided equally among children, while in others land was ruled to be indivisible. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design, we show that equal division of land led to a more equal distribution of land; other potential drivers of growth are smooth at the boundary and equal division areas were not historically more developed. Today, equal division areas feature higher average incomes and a right-shifted skill, income, and wealth distribution. Higher top incomes and top wealth in equal division areas coincide with higher education, and higher labor productivity. We show evidence consistent with the more even distribution of land leading to more innovative industrial by-employment during Germany's transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy and, in the long-run, more entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: distribution, economic growth, economic development
    JEL: D3 O1 O4
    Date: 2020–09
  6. By: Fedesarrollo
    Abstract: Como parte de la celebración de los 50 años de Fedesarrollo, se construyó este libro con el propósito de hacer una revisión histórica de la influencia de Fedesarrollo en diversas áreas de las políticas públicas en Colombia contada por quienes han sido sus directores a lo largo de los años. En cada uno de los capítulos del libro se recoge de primera mano su visión.
    Keywords: Tecnocracia, Sector Agropecuario, Gastos Sociales, Economía del Narcotráfico, Ciclos Económicos, Modelos de Equilibrio General de Fedesarrollo, Política Económica, Régimen Cambiario, Política Monetaria, Mercado Laboral, Crecimiento Económico, Desarrollo Económico y Social, Historia Económica, Colombia
    JEL: L31 L38 O10 E60 I23 O14 Q18 H50 E26 F13 D58 E60 F31 E52 J40 O47 N16
    Date: 2020–08–26
  7. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: By the end of 2020, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 98 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, debt would first exceed 100 percent of GDP in 2021 and would reach 107 percent of GDP, its highest level in the nation’s history, by 2023, CBO projects. Debt would continue to increase in most years thereafter, reaching 195 percent of GDP by 2050.
    JEL: E20 E60 E61 E62 E66 H50 H51 H53 H55 H60 H61 H62 H63 H68
    Date: 2020–09–21
  8. By: Pitteloud, Sabine
    Abstract: During the last decade, we have witnessed increased public concern about vehicle emissions and growing frustration with political inaction and businesses’ preference for the status quo. This paper offers a historical perspective on this debate by shedding light on the political struggle that occurred around the implementation of new regulations reducing air pollution caused by motor vehicles in Switzerland in the 1970s. Relying on archival material from the Swiss Federation of Commerce and Industry and the Federal Archives, the paper analyzes the processes of dilution and delay that characterized these regulations, and the complex interplay of various influences both in Switzerland and at the European level that contributed to this political outcome.
    Keywords: Environmental norms, Vehicle emissions, Lobbying, Business history, Switzerland
    JEL: N54 N84 F64 K32 D72
    Date: 2020
  9. By: José Antonio Ocampo
    Abstract: Capítulo 5 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública". Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - En este capítulo, José Antonio Ocampo menciona las contribuciones y recomendaciones que ha realizado Fedesarrollo al manejo de ciclos externos y flujos de capital. En este sentido, muestra la evolución, desde la década de los setenta, de los términos de intercambio y flujos de capital.
    Keywords: Términos de Intercambio, Flujos de Capital, Ciclos Económicos, Política Cambiaria, Economía Colombiana, Centros de Pensamiento, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: F13 E32 E22 O54 L38 L31 I23
    Date: 2020–08–26
  10. By: Christos Tsatsis
    Keywords: accounting crises; historical accounting; accounting innovations; accounting changes
    JEL: M41
    Date: 2020–09–17
  11. By: Roberto Steiner
    Abstract: Capítulo 10 del libro: Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública. Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - En este capítulo, Roberto Steiner hace un recorrido cronológico de seis episodios retadores en la historia de la política monetaria colombiana; además, expone los debates que se dieron y la influencia que tuvo Fedesarrollo entorno a estos momentos.
    Keywords: Política Monetaria, Bonanza Cafetera, Crisis Financiara, Historia Económica, Política Pública, Centros de Pensamiento, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: E52 E63 G01 O23 N16 L38 L31 I23
    Date: 2020–08–26
  12. By: Rodrigo Botero M.
    Abstract: Capítulo 1 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública" Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - En este capítulo Rodrigo Botero hace una reflexión sobre la participación de los cuadros técnicos en los gobiernos y sus efectos en el desarrollo y la calidad de las políticas. Además, plantea la simbiosis entre la modernización y la tecnocracia haciendo un recuento histórico de sus particularidades en el caso colombiano.
    Keywords: Tecnocracia, Modernización, Centros de Pensamiento, Política Pública, Economía Colombiana, Historia Económica, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: O14 O33 L31 L38 I23 O54 N16
    Date: 2020–08–26
  13. By: Peter Ganong (University of Chicago); Pascal Noel (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business); Joseph Vavra (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business)
    Abstract: We study the effects of news coverage of COVID-19 by the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States ÑHannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News Ñ on viewersÕ behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by COVID-19 from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the associated risks before gradually adjusting his position starting late February. We first validate these differences in content with independent coding of show transcripts and present new survey evidence that HannityÕs viewers changed behavior in response to COVID-19 later than other Fox News viewers, while CarlsonÕs viewers changed behavior earlier. We then document a robust association between viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight and COVID-19 cases and deaths, both through a selection-on-observables strategy and through a novel instrumental variable approach exploiting variation in when shows are broadcast relative to local Òprime-timeÓ viewing hours. We assess effect sizes through a simple epidemiological model and provide additional evidence that misinformation is an important mechanism driving the observed effects.
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Ximena Cadena
    Abstract: Presentación del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública" - En esta presentación del libro se resalta la influencia que ha tenido Fedesarrollo en el desarrollo de políticas de diversa índole al proveer información de calidad que ayuda a la toma de decisiones políticas. Además, se hace una reflexión hacia el futuro sobre los retos que enfrentan instituciones como Fedesarrollo: las amenazas a la democracia, la velocidad de las redes y desconfianza hacia la ciencia, y el camino que queda en materia de pobreza y desigualdad en Colombia. También, se describe el recorrido de planeación y escritura que se llevó a cabo con cada exdirector para recoger su esencia y la de Fedesarrollo en este libro.
    Keywords: Fedesarrollo, Centros de Pensamiento, Política Pública, Economía Colombiana, Política Económica, Desarrollo Económico y Social, Historia Económica, Colombia
    JEL: L31 I23 L38 O54 O10 E60 N16
    Date: 2020–08–26
  15. By: Eduardo Lora
    Abstract: Capítulo 7 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública". Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - Eduardo Lora se enfoca en el instrumento metodológico de los modelos de equilibrio general como herramienta utilizada en Fedesarrollo para analizar, hacer proyecciones, etc, para influir en políticas públicas y decisiones políticas.
    Keywords: Modelos de Equilibrio General de Fedesarrollo, Modelos de Equilibrio General Computable, MEGC, Crecimiento Económico, Política Económica, Economía Colombiana, Política Pública, Centros de Pensamiento, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: D58 C68 E27 O54 E60 L38 L31 I23
    Date: 2020–08–26
  16. By: Juan José Echavarría
    Abstract: Capítulo 9 del libro: Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública. Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - En este capítulo Juan José Echavarría escribe sobre las principales características del mercado cambiario en Colombia, cuenta las ventajas de la flotación cambiaria y presenta los requisitos para la sostenibilidad de esta medida.
    Keywords: Régimen Cambiario, Banda Cambiaria, Política del Comercio Exterior, Mercado de Divisas, Comercio Exterior, Política Pública. Centros de Pensamiento, Historia Económica, Colombia
    JEL: F31 O24 F13 L38 L31 I23 N16
    Date: 2020–08–26
  17. By: Brett, Edwin
    Abstract: International aid plays a key but contested role in stabilizing the global economic order by helping ‘late developers’ (LDCs) to provide services and grow. However, it creates asymmetric power relationships between donors and recipients, which succeed when interests and incentives can be harmonized but not when they conflict, as they often do in fragile and fragmented states, producing non-compliance and failed programmes. The global aid system has responded to this challenge in very different ways since the second world war in response to decolonization, the neo-liberal revolution, and the need to address economic crises. We will provide a brief history of these changes, an analysis of challenges involved in reconciling donor-recipient interests, review recent attempts to increase aid efficiency through Political Economy Analysis and New Public Management, and conclude by identifying the challenges confronting EU-Africa cooperation generated by the COVID-19 crisis.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–09–01
  18. By: Roth, Felix (Department of Economics, University of Hamburg); Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: Austria, Finland and Sweden became members of the EU in 1995. This paper examines how support for the euro and trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) have evolved in these three countries since their introduction at the turn of the century. Support for the euro in the two euro-area members Austria and Finland has remained high and relatively stable since the physical introduction of the new currency nearly 20 years ago, while the euro crisis significantly reduced support for the euro in Sweden. Since the start of the crisis, trust in the ECB was strongly influenced by the pronounced increase in unemployment in the euro area, demonstrating that the ECB was held accountable for macroeconomic developments. Our results indicate that citizens in the EU, both within and outside the euro area, judge the euro and the ECB based on the economic performance of the euro area. Thus, the best way to foster support for the euro and trust in the ECB is to pursue policies aimed at achieving low unemployment and high growth.
    Keywords: euro; trust; ECB; EU; monetary union; Austria; Finland; Sweden
    JEL: E42 E52 E58 F33 F45
    Date: 2020–09–08
  19. By: Guillermo Perry
    Abstract: Capítulo 6 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública." Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - Este capítulo, en blanco en su memoria, refleja el vació que dejó Guillermo Perry por su pronta partida.
    Keywords: Guillermo Perry Rubio, Investigadores, Centros de Pensamiento, Política Pública, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: I23 L38 L31
    Date: 2020–08–26
  20. By: Miguel Urrutia
    Abstract: Capítulo 3 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública" Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - Miguel Urrutia describe el papel definitivo que ha tenido y sigue teniendo Fedesarrollo en políticas sociales y de equidad. Así mismo, resalta la importancia que tuvo la revista Coyuntura Social para suplir las necesidades de información que permitiera guiar las decisiones de política pública.
    Keywords: Gastos Sociales, Política Social, Equidad Social, Pobreza, Política Pública, Coyuntura Social, Centros de Pensamiento, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: H50 D63 H53 I32 L38 L31 I23
    Date: 2020–08–26
  21. By: Carlos Caballero
    Abstract: Capítulo 4 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública". Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - En este capítulo, Carlos Caballero reúne los principales informes sobre economía de las drogas ilícitas publicados por Fedesarrollo (y algunos otros) en sus 50 años. En estos, se muestra el interés del centro de investigación en las economías ilegales al tratar de estimar su tamaño, y demostrar el daño que esta hace al desarrollo económico, la creación de empleo y al bienestar de la población.
    Keywords: Economía del Narcotráfico, Economía Ilegal, Desarrollo Económico y Social, Economía Colombiana, Política Pública, Centros de Pensamiento, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    JEL: E26 O10 O54 L38 L31 I23
    Date: 2020–08–26
  22. By: Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena
    Abstract: We find that it does, but choosing the right specification is not trivial. We unveil notable model instability, with breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run-up to the EMU and after the sovereign debt crisis, when the trend and for the latter period, also the amount of slack, were harder to pin down. Yet, some specifications outperform a univariate benchmark most of the time and are thus a useful element in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an extraordinarily long period by euro area standards. We complement the analysis using real-time data over 2005-2018. As lessons for practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output gap works well overall as a measure of economic slack, but after the Great Recession it is outperformed by endogenously estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several time-varying features are a promising avenue for forecasting, especially when density forecasts are of interest, and finally, (v) averaging over a wide range of modelling choices offers some hedge against breaks in forecast performance. JEL Classification: C53, E31, E37
    Keywords: C53, E31, E37
    Date: 2020–09
  23. By: Ana Diakonidze; Barbora Holubová; Marta Kahancová
    Abstract: This report was elaborated within the project “Mapping Studies of Trade Unions and Professional Associations as Civil Society Actors Working on the Issues of Labour Rights and Social Dialogue in six Eastern Partnership Countries” funded by the European Union’s “Eastern Partnership Civil Society Facility – Regional Actions” Project and implemented by the Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    Date: 2020–08–26
  24. By: Loretta J. Mester
    Abstract: It is a great pleasure being with you today as part of the 20th Anniversary Chicago Payments Symposium. Over the last two decades, this symposium has established itself as a valuable forum at which those interested in the payments system can gather to learn and share ideas. In recent years, the symposium has fostered important conversations between industry practitioners and policymakers. Those conversations have helped inform the Federal Reserve System’s initiative to improve and modernize the U.S. payments system. That work is ongoing and has reached important milestones this year, despite the pandemic. Today, I will discuss some of the effects the pandemic has had on the U.S. payments system and update you on some of our ongoing efforts to modernize the payments system. As always, the views I’ll express are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
    Keywords: COVID-19
    Date: 2020–09–23
  25. By: Luis Fernando Mejía
    Abstract: Capítulo 12 del libro: Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública. Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - En este capítulo, Luis Fernando Mejía refleja la influencia que ha tenido Fedesarrollo durante sus 50 años en los debates, el diseño y formulación, implementación y evaluación de políticas públicas. También, postula nuevos retos de Fedesarrollo para el futuro.
    Keywords: Fedesarrollo, Centros de Pensamiento, Política Pública, Crecimiento Económico, Política Económica, Desarrollo Económico y Social, Economía Colombiana, Colombia
    JEL: L31 I23 L38 O10 E60 O47 O54
    Date: 2020–08–26
  26. By: Henri-Louis Vedie
    Abstract: En distinguant trois économistes reconnu(e)s pour leurs travaux sur l'approche de la pauvreté, les Nobel 2019 ont redonné ses lettres de noblesse à l'économie du développement. Mais, cette nomination c'est aussi la validation d'une méthode d'analyse, jusqu'alors essentiellement utilisée en médecine, méthode d'expérimentation aléatoire, encore appelée randomisation. C'est, donc, un nouveau tournant que prend la recherche économique, celui d'une démarche empirique commencée il y a une dizaine d'années, incarnée, par exemple, par T. Piketty. En distinguant E. Duflo, le jury Nobel a distingué une seconde femme, après E. Ostrom, en 2009, faisant d'elle la plus jeune lauréate de ce prestigieux Prix, devant K. Arrow, lauréat à 51 ans. Si les noms d'A. Banerjee et d'E. Duflo sont indissociables à double titre, mariés depuis 2015 et co-fondateurs de J-PAL Lab, celui de M. Kremer l'est tout autant de « Kremer O-Ring of Economic Development. Tous trois vont faire de la randomisation au cours des quinze dernières années, la méthodologie favorite de la Banque mondiale (BM).
    Date: 2020–02
  27. By: Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa; Gonzalez, Libertad (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
    Abstract: We study the effect of exposure to political instability in-utero on health at birth. We exploit the coup d'état that took place in Spain on February 23, 1981. Although short-lived and unsuccessful, the event generated stress and fear among the population, especially in areas that had suffered more repression during the Civil War and the recent dictatorship. We follow a difference-in-differences strategy and compare birth outcomes before and after the coup, in areas that were differentially "affected". We find that children who were in utero during the coup in more affected areas were born with significantly lower birth-weight (around 9 grams lighter), especially if they were exposed to the coup in the first or second trimester of pregnancy. We contribute to the literature on the effects of maternal stress by focusing on an acute (and relatively common) source of distress that is unlikely to have affected newborn health via other channels.
    Keywords: birth outcomes, birth weight, political instability, military coup
    JEL: I12 J13
    Date: 2020–09
  28. By: Pierrick Clerc (Swiss National Bank); Michel De Vroey (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to compare the visions held by two eminent monetarist economists, M. Friedman and K. Brunner, on the development prospects of monetarism within the macroeconomics discipline. Brunner, jointly with A. Meltzer, strived at constructing a model competing with the IS-LM model. By contrast, when invited to elaborate on the broader theoretical framework of monetarism, Friedman had no qualms to use the IS-LM model. In the first part of this paper, we summarize Friedman’s “Theoretical Framework” paper, Brunner and Meltzer’s reaction to it, and Friedman’s response. In the second part, we study the commonalities and differences between Friedman’s and Brunner’s approaches. In the third part, we summarize and assess the Brunner–Meltzer model. More general observations are offered in the conclusion.
    Keywords: M. Friedman, K. Brunner, monetarism, IS-LM model
    JEL: B22 B31 E40 E60
    Date: 2020–07–01
  29. By: Mauricio Cárdenas
    Abstract: Capítulo 8 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública". Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - Mauricio Cárdenas escribe sobre el nexo entre Fedesarrollo y el Ministerio de Hacienda desde dos enfoques. Primero, las misiones de estudio promovidas por Hacienda delegadas a Fedesarrollo; segundo, la conexión entre los estudios y recomendaciones de Fedesarrollo y las medidas adoptadas por el gobierno entre 2010 y 2018.
    Keywords: Política Económica, Crecimiento Económico, Economía Colombiana, Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público, Política Fiscal, Comisiones y Misiones de Estudios, Programas de Investigación, Política Pública, Centros de Pensamiento, Fedesarrollo, Colombia
    Date: 2020–08–26
  30. By: Hendricks, Nathan P.; Stigler, Matthieu M.
    Keywords: Production Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
    Date: 2020–07
  31. By: Cristina Tello-Trillo; Sean Streiff
    Abstract: This document describes the methodology used for processing and matching Compustat to the Business Register (BR) to create the latest Compustat bridge (CSB) located in the data warehouse. The CSB maps a gvkey from Compustat to a firmid from LBD by year. Matching was performed in several steps which includes EIN, and fuzzy name and address matching. The Compustat bridge file starts in 1976 and ends in 2016.
    Date: 2020–09
  32. By: Roberto Junguito
    Abstract: Capítulo 2 del libro: "Fedesarrollo: 50 años de influencia en política pública" Bogotá: Fedesarrollo - Roberto Junguito retrata el impacto que ha tenido Fedesarrollo en el análisis y en las políticas públicas relacionadas con el sector agropecuario y rural a partir de la recolección de la bibliografía que se ha producido en este centro de investigación en materia agropecuaria y rural a través de las décadas.
    Keywords: Política Agropecuaria, Sector Agropecuario, Política Pública, Centros de Pensamiento, FedesarrolloHistoria Económica, Colombia
    JEL: Q18 Q10 L38 L31 I23 N16
    Date: 2020–08–26
  33. By: Humberto Barreto (Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University); Sang T. Truong (Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University)
    Abstract: Visit to see a novel, eye-catching visual display of the income distribution in the United States that conveys fundamental information about the evolution and current level of income inequality to a wide audience. We use IPUMS CPS data to create household income deciles adjusted for price level and household size for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1976 to 2018. We adjust for state price differences from 2008 to 2018. Plotting these data gives a 3D chart that provides a startling picture of income differences within and across states over time. Those interested in further customization can use our Python visualization toolbox, incomevis, available at
    Keywords: visualization, household income, inequality, microdata, big data, data-mining, Python
    JEL: A10 A20 J10
    Date: 2020–09–12
  34. By: Manduca, Robert (Department of Sociology, University of Michigan); Hell, Maximilian (Department of Sociology, Stanford University); Adermon, Adrian (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Blanden, Jo (Department of Economics, University of Surrey); Bratberg, Espen (Department of Economics, University of Bergen); Gielen, Anne C. (Erasmus School of Economics); van Kipepersluis, Hans (Erasmus School of Economics); Lee, Keun Bok (California Center for Population Research,); Machin, Stephen (Department of Economics, London School of Economics); Munk, Martin D. (The Free University, Copenhagen); Nybom, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Ostrovsky, Yuri (Statistics Canada); Rahman, Sumaiya (Frontier Economics); Sirniö, Outi (Department of Sociology, University of Turku)
    Abstract: We compute rates of absolute upward income mobility for the 1960-1987 birth cohorts in eight countries in North America and Europe. Rates and trends in absolute mobility varied dramatically across countries during this period: the US and Canada saw upward mobility rates near 50% for recent cohorts, while countries like Norway and Finland saw sustained rates above 70%. Decomposition analysis suggests that differences in the marginal income distributions, especially the amount of cross-cohort income inequality, were the primary driver of differing mobility rates across countries. We also demonstrate that absolute mobility rates can be accurately estimated without linked parent-child data.
    Keywords: Intergenerational mobility; absolute mobility; inequality
    JEL: J62
    Date: 2020–09–01
  35. By: Mancini, Giulia
    Abstract: This paper offers a quantitative description of gender segregation in productive roles, and of its consequences on basic dimensions of women’s and girls’ wellbeing, among rural households in interwar Italy. It uses microdata assembled from a collection of family monographs, which recount the lives, work, and consumption behavior of more than 800 men and women. It finds that, despite the emphasis put by the qualitative literature on non-stereotypical examples of female work, a rigid gender-based division of labor was the rule. An investigation of household nutrition and expenditures does not offer definitive proof of gender bias in intrahousehold resource allocation, in spite of anecdotal evidence. Nevertheless, women commanded a lower share of total household income, while putting in as many or more working hours than men.
    Keywords: gender; intrahousehold inequality; agriculture; Italy; interwar; Fascism.
    JEL: D13 J16 N30 N50 Q12
    Date: 2020–06–09
  36. By: Colin Weiss
    Abstract: Financial intermediary balance sheets matter for asset returns even when these intermediaries do not directly participate in the relevant asset markets. During the National Banking Era, liquidity conditions for the New York Clearinghouse (NYCH) banks forecast excess returns for stocks, bonds, and currencies. The NYCH banks had little to no direct participation in these markets; their main link to these markets was through securities financing. Liquidity conditions affect asset prices through the credit growth of the NYCH banks, which shapes marginal investors' discount rates. I use institutional features of this era to provide evidence in favor of this mechanism.
    Keywords: Liquidity management; Margin loans; Intermediary asset pricing; National banks
    JEL: G12 G21 E51 N21
    Date: 2020–09–18

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.