nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒09‒07
thirty-six papers chosen by

  1. Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data By Michael R. Haines; J. David Hacker; Matthew S. Jaremski
  2. Monetary Systems By Julia M. Puaschunder
  3. A History of Pricing Pollution (Or, Why Pigouvian Taxes are not Necessarily Pigouvian) By H. Spencer Banzhaf
  4. Rule of Law in Labor Relations, 1898-1940 By Price V. Fishback
  5. When Uncle Sam Introduced Main Street to Wall Street: Liberty Bonds and the Transformation of American Finance By Eric Hilt; Matthew S. Jaremski; Wendy Rahn
  6. The Race between Population and Technology : Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution By Crafts, Nicholas; Mills, Terence C.
  7. China's Foreign Trade and Investment, 1800 - 1950 By Wolfgang Keller; Carol H. Shiue
  8. History as Evolution By Nathan Nunn
  9. Piero Sraffa and Raffaello Piccoli, two Italian Scholars in Cambridge in 1929-1932 By Morra, Lucia
  10. The Late Emerging Consensus Among American Economists on Antitrust Laws in the Second New Deal (1935-1941) (Revised Version) By Thierry Kirat; Frederic Marty
  11. Great Expectations. Hicks on expectations from Theory of Wages (1932) to Value and Capital (1939) (long version) By Jean-Sébastien Lenfant
  12. The settlers of South Africa and the expanding frontier By Johan Fourie
  13. State-market-society alliance: The evolving nature of the '21st century developmental state' By Pui Yi Wong
  14. British Relative Economic Decline in the Aftermath of German Unification By Crafts, Nicholas
  15. Education and Religion in Jerusalem and Babylon, Viewed through the Prism of the Book of Daniel By Ioan-Gheorghe Rotaru
  16. Are the Losers of Communism the Winners of Capitalism? The Effects of Conformism in the GDR on Transition Success By Max Deter
  17. Explaining latin america’s persistent defaults: an analysis of debtor-creditor relations in London, 1822-1914 By Flores Zendejas, Juan
  18. Migrancy and the Birth of Nativism, Uganda 1920s-1960s By Nicholas Tunanukye
  19. Discrimination and Racial Disparities in Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from WWII By Anna Aizer; Ryan Boone; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Jonathan Vogel
  20. Explaining Post-Cold-War Civil Conflict among 17 Billion Models: The Importance of History and Religion By Jetter, Michael; Mahmood, Rafat; Parmeter, Christopher F.; Ramirez Hassan, Andres
  21. Understanding 100 Years of the Evolution of Top Wealth Shares in the U.S.: What is the Role of Family Firms? By Andrew Atkeson; Magnus Irie
  22. Berkeley Blues; Ford Community Corps Partnership: Integrating Environmental Ethic, Bioethics and the Ethics of Emerging Technology into a Comprehensive Leadership Philosophy. A Regional Study, Detroit Michigan. (Covid, Edition) By Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa
  23. Randomization in the Tropics Revisited: a Theme and Eleven Variations By Angus Deaton
  24. El Keynesianismo y la Gran Depresión: Un Análisis Comparativo de la Experiencia de Alemania, EE.UU. y Gran Bretaña entre 1930 y 1937 By Emilio Ocampo
  25. Dust Bowl Migrants: Identifying an Archetype By Richard Hornbeck
  26. The influence of local institutional and historical frameworks on a globalized industry: The case of the pharmaceutical industry in France and Quebec By Maé Geymond
  27. Family ties as the political framework of the state: clan and society in medieval Russia (X-XVII centuries) By Uspenskiy, Feodor (Успенский, Федор)
  28. Patterns of Innovation during the Industrial Revolution: a Reappraisal using a Composite Indicator of Patent Quality By Alessandro Nuvolari; Valentina Tartari; Matteo Tranchero
  29. Evolution and Development of the Trade Route in Ladakh: A Case-Study of Rock Carvings By Khushboo Chaturvedi; Varun Sahai
  30. The Evolution of Built-up Areas in Ghana since 1975 By Fafchamps,Marcel; Shilpi,Forhad J.
  31. The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 1960-2010 By Remi Jedwab; Adam Storeygard
  32. The three archetype European historic development models and their impact in East-Central Europe By Miklós Szanyi
  33. Women in the Pipeline : A Dynamic Decomposition of Firm Pay Gaps By Das,Jishnu; Joubert,Clement Jean Edouard
  34. The Cathedral and the Starship: Learning from the Middle Ages for Future Long-Duration Projects By Andreas M. Hein
  35. On Plague and Ebola in a Time of COVID-19 By Cormac Ó Gráda
  36. Introducción a la Dinámica de Sistemas By Eduardo De Leo; Diego Aranda; Gastón Andrés Addati

  1. By: Michael R. Haines; J. David Hacker; Matthew S. Jaremski
    Abstract: The U.S. fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation’s development, but it also took place long before the nation’s mortality transition, industrialization, and urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility transition. We construct cross-sectional models of net fertility for currently-married white couples in census years 1830-1880 and test the results with subset of couples linked between the 1850-1860 and 1860-1870 censuses. We find evidence of marital fertility control consistent with hypotheses as early as 1830. The results indicate support for several different but complementary theories of the early U.S. fertility decline, including the land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity trade-off, and life-cycle savings theories.
    JEL: J13 N21 N31
    Date: 2020–08
  2. By: Julia M. Puaschunder (The New School, Department of Economics, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, New York, USA)
    Abstract: Throughout modern international finance, different monetary regimes existed. International monetary arrangements initially arose from the need to provide international trade with easy means of settling trans-border payments (Semmler 2019). For centuries, both domestic and international trade was carried out using gold and silver (Semmler 2019). The Gold standard during the Interwar Period since 1870, the Bretton Woods system and the following Euro currency introduction. This essay summarizing the differences between the three Monetary and currency systems: Gold standard, Bretton Woods and Euro-System and highlights the success and failures of the different approaches to guide monetary matters throughout history.
    Keywords: Bretton Woods System, Central Banks, Currency System, Economic Stability, Euro Currency, Finance, Fiscal Policy, Gold standard, History, International Trade, Monetary Policy
    Date: 2020–04
  3. By: H. Spencer Banzhaf
    Abstract: The standard history of modern environmental economics often views it as an application of A.C. Pigou's theory of externalities, refined over the decades and applied to environmental problems in the 1960s, when the first detailed pro-posals for pricing pollution were outlined by Allen Kneese, Thomas Crocker, John Dales, and others. However, the historical literature has noted problems with this narrative, including a 30-year gap in discussions of such applications and few actual citations to Pigou. This paper offers a simple explanation for this puzzle: Namely, pollution pricing is not (necessarily) Pigouvian. It argues that the early applied literature on the topic was rooted more in questions about common property resources and increasing returns from developing natural re-sources. Both topics were treated by broad literatures by the 1960s, including distinctly American traditions not particularly associated with Pigou.
    JEL: B2 H23 Q2 Q5
    Date: 2020–08
  4. By: Price V. Fishback
    Abstract: The paper examines changes in labor regulation between 1898 and 1940 in the context of issues related to rule of law in two areas. 1) Many see the 1905 Lochner Supreme Court decision on men’s hours laws as the beginning of 30 years in which labor regulation was stymied by the doctrine of “freedom of contract.” Seeing close votes and substantial turnover of judges on the Supreme Court, the de facto situation was more complex as some states maintained their laws or passed new ones. 2) Labor disputes led to some of the greatest threats to rule of law. To limit descents into violence, states passed arbitration laws, pro-union laws, and anti-union laws. Uncertainty about the rules led to a sharp rise in strikes and violence after World War I and again when Congress and the states sought to establish the rules for collective bargaining between 1932 and 1937. A panel analysis of the impact of state laws in bituminous coal mining from 1902 to 1941 shows that the arbitration and pro-union laws were associated with less violence during periods of uncertainty. During several periods state pro-union laws were associated with more strikes and state anti-union laws with fewer strikes.
    JEL: H77 J08 J52 J88 K31 N31 N32
    Date: 2020–07
  5. By: Eric Hilt; Matthew S. Jaremski; Wendy Rahn
    Abstract: We study the effects of the liberty bond drives of World War I on financial intermediation in the 1920s and beyond. Using panel data on U.S. counties we find that higher liberty bond subscription rates led to an increase in the number of investment banks, stronger local competition between investment banks and commercial banks, and a relative contraction in commercial bank assets. We also find that individuals residing in states with higher liberty bond subscription rates were more likely to report owning stocks or bonds in the late 1930s. Finally, we find that this shift in financial intermediation away from commercial banks was correlated with slower growth in the number of manufacturing enterprises and farms at the county level. Although they were conducted to support the American effort in World War I, the liberty loan drives reshaped American finance.
    JEL: N12 N22 N42
    Date: 2020–08
  6. By: Crafts, Nicholas (University of Sussex); Mills, Terence C. (Loughborough University)
    Abstract: We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4 per cent before 1760 but 1.5 per cent thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial Revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.
    Keywords: epidemic disease ; Industrial Revolution ; Malthusian checks ; nuptiality ; population growth ; real wages ; technological progress JEL codes: N13 ; N33
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Wolfgang Keller; Carol H. Shiue
    Abstract: The First Opium War (1840-42) was a watershed in the history of China. In its aftermath Britain and other countries forced open new ports to foreign trade through international treaties. Chinese institutions of trade were abolished and re-organized under Western management, Western legal institutions were introduced in China in form of courts and legal practices, and foreigners in China were tried according to the laws of their country of origin (extraterritoriality). To better understand the implications of these changes during the Treaty Port Era (1842-1943), we begin by discussing the attitudes towards foreign trade before 1840 for both China and the West. Drawing on information from the foreign-led Chinese Maritime Customs organization, we provide a synopsis of China’s foreign trade and investment both in terms of patterns and volumes. The paper highlights the link between foreign and domestic trade as well as the important role of new, previously not traded goods for welfare. Employing several outcome measures, we show that Western influence generated significant benefits to China’s economy, and the results suggest that the geographic scope of these benefits reached into areas far beyond the treaty ports.
    JEL: F1 F2 N15 O1
    Date: 2020–07
  8. By: Nathan Nunn
    Abstract: In this chapter, I consider the benefits of viewing history through an evolutionary lens. In recent decades, a field of research has emerged, which builds on foundations from biological evolution to study culture within an evolutionary framework. I begin the chapter by discussing the theory behind cultural evolution and the empirical evidence supporting its ability to explain the history of human societies. I then turn to a discussion of how an evolutionary perspective provides important insights into a range of phenomena within economics, including a deeper understanding of human capital, innovation, gender roles, the consequences of warfare, the effects of market competition, why we observe historical persistence and path dependence, and, most importantly, why sustained economic growth is often so elusive. I end by turning to a summary of a growing body of research within economics that has made progress in improving our understanding of cultural evolution and, thus, contributing to evolutionary disciplines outside of economics.
    JEL: C73 N01 N10 Z1
    Date: 2020–08
  9. By: Morra, Lucia (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Sraffa’s diaries report that from June 1929 until late 1932 he often met with the literary scholar, poet and philosopher Raffa-ello Piccoli, Serena Professor of Italian at the University of Cambridge. After a sketchy biography of Piccoli, the essay recon-structs the story of their friendship, thus contributing to the reconstruction of Sraffa’s biography in 1929-1932; it pauses along the way on their meetings with Carlo Rosselli in 1929-1931 and on their common friendship with Ludwig Wittgen-stein.
    Keywords: Piero Sraffa; Raffaello Piccoli; Carlo Rosselli; Ludwig Wittgenstein.
    JEL: B31
    Date: 2020–08–31
  10. By: Thierry Kirat; Frederic Marty
    Abstract: This paper presents the late convergence process from American economists that led them to support a strong antitrust enforcement in the Second New Deal despite their long-standing distrust toward this legislation. The paper presents the path from which institutionalist economists, on one side, and members of the First Chicago School, on the other one, have converged on supporting the President F.D. Roosevelt administration towards reinvigorating antitrust law enforcement as of 1938, putting aside their initial preferences for a regulated competition model or for a classical liberalism. The appointment of Thurman Arnold at the head of the Antitrust Division in 1938 gave the impetus to a vigorous antitrust enforcement. The 1945 Alcoa decision crafted by Judge Hand embodied the results of this convergence: in this perspective, the purpose of antitrust law enforcement does consist in preventing improper uses of economic power. Read the first version of this publication
    Keywords: Antitrust,Efficiency,Economic Power,Institutional Economics,Chicago School,New Deal,
    JEL: B25 K21 L40 N42
    Date: 2020–08–25
  11. By: Jean-Sébastien Lenfant (Université de Lille, Clersé)
    Abstract: The article is intended as an in-depth study of the development and role of expectations within John R. Hicks' representation of the functioning of a capitalist economy. It covers his contributions to economic theory in the 1930s, with a particular focus on Value and Capital. The question underlying the study is whether Hicks develops a theory of expectations. We argue that there are several elements of such a theory in Hicks's work, though what is most important to him is the historical dynamic generated by heterogeneity of expectations.
    Keywords: Hicks (john Richard), expectations, temporary equilibrium, stability, cycles
    Date: 2020–08
  12. By: Johan Fourie (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: The arrival of European settlers in the mid-seventeenth century at the southern tip of Africa profoundly affected the region’s development. They quickly displaced the local Khoesan and began a process of colonisation that would, some might argue, continue until 1994 with the first democratic elections, 342 years after their arrival. This is the story of their migration into the southern African interior. Combining a rich historiography with new quantitative source material – and the story of one family – I show that, despite the political, cultural and religious rhetoric that inspired their migrations, their reason for trekking was at heart economic. Their story is closely tied to the fortunes of those around them: their actions were often both a response to and a cause of events beyond their borders, a dynamic process that continues today.
    Keywords: migration, colonialism, settler, Voortrekker, South Africa
    JEL: N37
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Pui Yi Wong
    Abstract: While mainstream economics since the 1980s has been largely characterized by neo-liberal ideology, the past decade witnessed the rise of nationalism and protectionist policies globally. The latest COVID-19 pandemic has further refocused attention on the crucial roles played by effective states in protecting public welfare and a working economy. This literature review traces the 'developmental state' paradigm as it evolved from the classical developmental state model into the 21st-century developmental state.
    Keywords: developmental state, market, society, literature review
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Crafts, Nicholas (University of Sussex)
    Abstract: From 1871 to 1913, German economic growth was faster than that of the UK. This represented a successful catch-up of the leading European economy but there was still a significant productivity gap at the end of the period. Slower UK growth should be seen as largely unavoidable but there was a serious weakness in the national innovation system. On the whole, the greater openness of the British economy was advantageous and a move to protectionist policies would have been damaging. The expansion of German industrial production and exports only had a small negative impact on UK national income.
    Keywords: economic growth ; productivity performance ; trade rivalry ; Victorian failure JEL codes: N13 ; O52
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Ioan-Gheorghe Rotaru (Timotheus Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest, Romania)
    Abstract: In this study we will analyze some key aspects of Jewish education as well as education in the Babylonian schools. This analysis is made in the light of the experiences related in the book of the prophet Daniel. Each type of school (Jerusalem or Babylon) had its own specifics and it is important to highlight which are the key elements of each. Daniel was an interesting character who went through both the Hebrew school and the Babylonian school. Regarding the school curriculum, it must be said that in the respective Jewish schools they studied the Law, in order to know all the laws, then they learned their history, the sacred history, about the way God guided them everywhere throughout their lives. Then they learned poetry, because poetry was a poem, an epic that conveyed the victory, the glory, the history of the people and the divine interventions in their lives and history. Fourthly, they studied music. They did not have many subjects, they only had four, but these four included a very wide range of information, and the school that Daniel attended included these elements, and in addition he also learned the Aramaic language, a language of universal circulation in those times, similar to the English language in our times. In the Babylonian School the study of languages, mathematics, astronomy, business were top fields of Babylonian science. But the Babylonian schools also had a negative side. Thus, starting from astronomy, the Babylonians created another science, namely astrology, which for them was a true science, and it could be called differently such as: futurology, riddle, astrology, zodiac, etc. Daniel, whether he liked it or not, faced this type of practice in Babylon.
    Keywords: education, religion, Jerusalem, Babylon, symbol
    Date: 2020–06
  16. By: Max Deter
    Abstract: Following the fall of the Iron Curtain it was important for the acceptance of the new economic and political system that the former Communist elites did not maintain their privileges, and that protesters, who helped to overturn the old system, improved their situation. With newly available panel data on East Germany’s socialist past, the German Democratic Republic, we analyze how former Communist elites, dissidents, and the “silent majority” were affected by the transition from socialism into today’s market-based democracy. Applying random effects models, the results reveal that the transition reduced economic outcomes for former Communist elites in terms of life satisfaction, income, and employment. The transition had a positive impact on political dissidents and victims of repression. The transition success of the “silent majority” depended on the inner support of the system, that is, low support of the GDR predicts better outcomes in capitalism. Individual preferences for economic liberalism, risk, and trust in others can partly explain selection into Communist elites and dissidents, as well as differences in outcomes of the change from socialism to capitalism for these two groups.
    Keywords: East Germany, Communist elites, political resistance, autocracy, labor market, life satisfaction
    JEL: H10 N44 P20 D31
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Flores Zendejas, Juan
    Abstract: This paper analyses the reasons why most Latin American governments frequently defaulted on their debts during the 19th century. Contrary to previous works, which focused on domestic factors, I argue that supply-side factors were equally important. The regulatory framework at the London Stock Exchange impeded defaulting governments from having access to the market. Therefore, the implicit incentive for underwriting banks and governments was to accelerate the negotiations with bondholders, particularly during periods of high liquidity. Frequently, however, the settlements reached were short-lived. In contrast, certain merchant banks opted to delay or refuse a settlement if they judged that the risks of a renewed default were too high. In such cases, even if negotiations were extended, the final agreements were more often respected, allowing governments to improve their repayment record.
    Keywords: Sovereign debt, Defaults, Defaults, Underwriting, Financial crises
    JEL: N26 F34 G15 N23
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Nicholas Tunanukye (Makerere University, Uganda)
    Abstract: Uganda has experienced explosive inter-ethnic conflicts and yet internal migration has persisted, and intermingling of different ethnicities has led to a complex relationship among them. This article bases on the oral history and life histories of the former Banyankole migrant laborers and their former Baganda employers, to discuss the incentives that propelled migration of people and what impact it had on the relationship among them. The article argues that the Banyanyankole migrant labor experience informed their socio-economic and political behavior back home, influenced the penetration of capital in southwestern Uganda, informed the Banyankole perception of the Baganda, and subsequent relations that defined their interactions, which ignited flames of nativism. It is pitched in the historical theories of Ravenstein and Lee. The findings show that the labor migration in Uganda was in response to the colonial economic policies, which aimed at developing the colonial overlord. The factors that propelled migration included the need to pay taxes, mobilizing resources for marriage, access to manufactured goods, and cash nexus. Migrancy had an impact on both the sending and host communities in defining their identities in relation to cash crop growing and expansion in Ankole, change in the labor dynamics, monetarization and commoditization of the economy in Ankole, change in gender roles, Baganda versus Banyankole perception, and modern life in Ankole.
    Keywords: migrancy, ethnicity, nativism, migrant labor, citizenship
    Date: 2020–04
  19. By: Anna Aizer; Ryan Boone; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Jonathan Vogel
    Abstract: The 1940s witnessed substantial reductions in the Black-white earnings gap. We study the role that domestic WWII defense production played in reducing this gap. Exploiting variation across labor markets in the allocation of war contracts to private firms, we find that war production contracts resulted in significant increases in the earnings of Black workers and declines in the racial wage gap, with no effect on white workers. This was achieved via occupational upgrading among Black men to skilled occupations. The gains largely persisted through at least 1970. Using a structural model, we show that declines in discrimination (and not migration or changes in productivity) account for all of the occupational upgrading and half of the estimated wage gains associated with the war production effort. Additionally, the war production effort explains one quarter (one seventh) of the overall improvements in racial gaps in occupation allocations (wages) witnessed over this decade. Finally, war spending led to an increase in the high school graduation rate of Black children, suggesting important intergenerational spillovers associated with declines in labor market discrimination.
    JEL: J24 J3 J7 N12 N4
    Date: 2020–08
  20. By: Jetter, Michael (University of Western Australia); Mahmood, Rafat (University of Western Australia); Parmeter, Christopher F. (University of Miami); Ramirez Hassan, Andres (Universidad EAFIT)
    Abstract: Model uncertainty remains a persistent concern when exploring the drivers of civil conflict and civil war. Considering a comprehensive set of 34 potential determinants in 175 post-Cold-War countries (covering 98.2% of the world population), we employ stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) to sort through all 234 possible models. Looking across both cross-sectional and panel data, three robust results emerge. First, past conflict constitutes the most powerful predictor of current conflict: path dependency matters. Second, larger shares of Jewish, Muslim, or Christian citizens are associated with increased chances of conflict incidence and onset - a result that is independent of religious fractionalization, polarization, and dominance. Third, economic and political factors remain less relevant than colonial origin and religion. These results lend credence to several existing schools of thought on civil conflict and provide new avenues for future research.
    Keywords: civil conflict, civil war, stochastic search variable selection (SSVS), greed versus grievances, religion and conflict
    JEL: D74 Q34 Z12 F54
    Date: 2020–07
  21. By: Andrew Atkeson; Magnus Irie
    Abstract: We use a simple random growth model to study the role of changing dynamics of family firms in shaping the evolution of top wealth shares in the United States over the course of the past century. Our model generates a time path for top wealth shares. The path is remarkably similar to those found by Saez and Zucman (2016) and Gomez (2019) when the volatility of idiosyncratic shocks to the value of family firms is similar to that found for public firms by Herskovic, Kelly, Lustig, and Van Nieuwerburgh (2016). We also show that consideration of family firms contributes not only to overall wealth inequality but also to considerable upward and downward mobility of families within the distribution of wealth. We interpret our results as indicating that improving our understanding of how families found new firms and eventually diversify their wealth is central to improving our understanding of the distribution of great wealth and its evolution over time.
    Keywords: Wealth; Inequality; Family firms
    JEL: E21
    Date: 2020–08–21
  22. By: Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa
    Abstract: The following project was conducted in partnership with University of Detroit Mercy and Ford Community Corps. Multiple non-profits were approached to make this project possible such as; ERACCE, Detroit Audubon, Detroit International Wild-Life Refuge, Belle Isle. The non-profit ERACCE has provided the criteria of analyzing power in the organizations that are at risk of environmental violations or have had environmental violations. Furthermore, the non-profit has asked for a comparison of power between non-profits working within the sector, such as Detroit Audubon, Detroit International Wild Life Refuge and Detroiters Working for Environmental Justice and the business sector. Hence, this is where ERACCE believes the gap in power to be and hence, environmental injustice and satisfying the proposals need to impact the community. To this end they have provided a sampling of questions that the interview/research should answer. The project has also been written to enhance Michigan’s competitive advantage in; conservation, environmental stewardship, civil rights, industrial innovation, and entrepreneurship as put forth by the Environmental Justice Workgroup in 2018. Furthermore, the rationale that has been provided is the increase in both the private sector and public sector awareness towards sustainability and push towards higher levels of sustainability by CEO’s. Two Nobel Laureates have been awarded a joint Nobel Peace Prize in integrating technological and environmental advances into economic theory. His Holiness Pope Francis wrote an encyclical towards integrating environmental ethics into religious faith followed by an effort with Notre Dame and Oxford to establish a center to focus on matters of ecology. UN Sustainable goals have been established and work has been done to map out the frontier of sustainable technologies. Furthermore, during the course of the year long projection March 19th the state of Michigan entered into a lock-down due to the pandemic termed Covid-19 and the project and scope were modified to reflect this change. The research confirms the hypothesis that there is an imbalance of power between the business community and the community involved in the work of environmental injustice issues.
    Keywords: Ford Community Corps, Environmental Ethics, Bioethics, Ethics of Emerging Tech’, Leadership, UN Sustainable Goals, Long-run Macroeconomics, Nobel Prize 2018.
    JEL: E6 H7 I0 J0 K2 L0 M10 M14 M21 N80 N82 O3 Q51 Q57 Q58 R10
    Date: 2019–03–19
  23. By: Angus Deaton
    Abstract: Randomized controlled trials have been used in economics for 50 years, and intensively in economic development for more than 20. There has been a great deal of useful work, but RCTs have no unique advantages or disadvantages over other empirical methods in economics. They do not simplify inference, nor can an RCT establish causality. Many of the difficulties were recognized and explored in economics 30 years ago, but are sometimes forgotten. I review some of the most relevant issues here. The most troubling questions concern ethics, especially when very poor people are experimented on. Finding out what works, even if such a thing is possible, is in itself a deeply inadequate basis for policy
    JEL: C01 C93 O22
    Date: 2020–07
  24. By: Emilio Ocampo
    Abstract: Existe una noción bastante generalizada, incluso entre economistas e historiadores, que las naciones más industrializadas del planeta –Alemania, Estados Unidos y Gran Bretaña– lograron salir de la Gran Depresión gracias a políticas de expansión del gasto público y el déficit preconizadas por John Maynard Keynes. Esta noción no se sustenta en la evidencia. En primer lugar, las políticas empleadas por estos tres países entre 1930 y 1937 fueron heterogéneas y sus resultados significativamente distintos. En segundo lugar, en Estados Unidos, las políticas de expansión del gasto e intervención en los mercados, que podrían describirse genéricamente como keynesianas, retardaron la recuperación económica en vez de alentarla. En tercer lugar, los mejores resultados macroeconómicos se obtuvieron en Gran Bretaña donde el gobierno siguió una política de austeridad fiscal con fuerte expansión monetaria. El objetivo del presente trabajo es sustentar estas conclusiones con un análisis comparativo de las políticas aplicadas y resultados obtenidos en Alemania, Estados Unidos y Gran Bretaña entre 1930 y 1937.
    Keywords: Keynes, Gran Depresión, Austeridad, Déficit, Políticas Anti-cíclicas
    JEL: E3 J3 N1
    Date: 2020–08
  25. By: Richard Hornbeck
    Abstract: The 1930's American Dust Bowl created archetypal "Dust Bowl migrants," refugees from environmental collapse and economic upheaval. I examine this archetype, comparing migration from more-eroded counties and less-eroded counties to distinguish Dust Bowl migrants from other migrants in this era. Migrants from more-eroded counties were more "negatively selected," in years of education, than other migrants who were "positively selected." These Dust Bowl migrants struggled economically, especially in California. Despite migrants' struggles, however, I estimate strikingly modest impacts of the Dust Bowl on average incomes that contrast with its enduring impacts on agricultural land.
    JEL: N32 N52
    Date: 2020–08
  26. By: Maé Geymond (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: In this paper, we combine the Varieties of Capitalism and the global value chain approaches, considering the interaction between lead firms' global strategies and national capitalism, to show how local pharmaceutical employment results from this interaction. Our analysis is grounded in the comparison between France and Quebec. The first part presents the relevant differences in both historical and institutional elements. Second, after highlighting the similarities that can be attributed to global dynamics, we detail the mechanisms by which local institutions shape the global value chain implantation, giving different forms to the employment structure and dynamics. We show that France is clearly oriented towards manufacturing activity because of industrial history and market features, whereas Quebec has a commercial specialty and an outsourced R&D as a result of high prices and the global organization of research.
    Abstract: Dans ce papier, nous combinons Variété des Capitalismes et chaîne globale de valeur, pour faire apparaître comment l'emploi pharmaceutique local résulte de l'interaction entre stratégies globales et capitalismes nationaux. Notre analyse s'appuie sur une comparaison France-Québec. La première partie présente les différences majeures des cadres historico-institutionnels. Ensuite, après avoir souligné les similarités liées aux dynamiques mondiales, nous détaillons les mécanismes par lesquels les institutions locales influencent l'implantation de la chaîne globale de valeur, donnant des formes différentes à l'emploi. Tandis que la France est clairement orientée vers l'activité de production du fait de l'histoire industrielle et des caractéristiques du marché, le Québec dénote par sa spécialisation commerciale et sa R&D externalisée, en lien avec le haut niveau des prix et l'organisation de la recherche mondiale.
    Keywords: political economy,varieties of capitalism,industrial organization,local government,multinational firms,économie politique,variété des capitalismes,organisation industrielle,gouvernement local,firmes multinationales
    Date: 2020–06
  27. By: Uspenskiy, Feodor (Успенский, Федор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The work focuses on historical and philological analysis of representation of political realia, as reflected in terms of kinship and relationship by marriage, in Russian medieval texts (chronicles, hagiography, birch-bark letters, epigraphical writings, acts and law texts). The research resulted in a full corpus of usage of terms of kinship and relationship by marriage in the ancient chronicles. It allowed to demonstrate that the basis for political terminology was made up of kinship terminology. Reconstructing the way in which concepts of kinship and relationship by marriage influenced the perception of social hierarchy required full examination of dynastic and intradynastic marriages which served as one of the principal instruments of forming political alliances in the medieval world. Also, the terminology of mestnichestvo and сult of personal patronal saints was studied as an aspect of family and public devotion of the Russian elites in the 11th – 17th centuries. Comparative analysis of political vocabulary based on kinship concepts in medieval Rus’, Byzantium and the Northern Europe was conducted.
    Date: 2020–05
  28. By: Alessandro Nuvolari; Valentina Tartari; Matteo Tranchero
    Abstract: The distinction between macro- and microinventions is at the core of recent debates on the Industrial Revolution. Yet, the empirical testing of this notion has remained elusive. We address this issue by introducing a new quality indicator for all patents granted in England in the period 1700-1850. Our findings indicate that macroinventions did not exhibit any specific time-clustering, while microinventions were correlated with the economic cycle. In addition, we also find that macroinventions were characterized by a labor-saving bias and were mostly introduced by professional engineers. These results suggest that Allen's and Mokyr's views of macroinventions, rather than conflicting, should be regarded as complementary.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; Patents; Macroinventions; Microinventions
    Date: 2020–09–05
  29. By: Khushboo Chaturvedi (Amity University, India); Varun Sahai (Amity University, India)
    Abstract: From the beginning of human history trade has been major source of growth of civilization and material culture. Economy was the main crux which caused Diasporas what disseminated cultures and religions on our planet. The Silk Road was one of the first trade routes to join the Eastern and the Western worlds. Ladakh also underwent the same process of evolution of trade although it was a difficult terrain but it provides access to travelers from central Asia and Tibet through its passes. Ladakh was a crossroads of many complexes of routes, providing choices for different sectors connecting Amritsar to Yarkand. Again, from Leh to Yarkand, there were several possible routes all converging at the Karakoram Pass. Comparative small human settlements in oases of Ladakh’s desert rendered hospitality to the travelers being situated as halting station on traditional routes. Indeed, such places (halts) were natural beneficiaries of generating some sort of revenues from travelers against the essential services provided to caravans and groups of traders and travelers. Main halts on these routes are well marked with petro-glyphs right from Kashmir to Yarkand and at major stations with huge rock carving of Buddhist deities. Petro-glyphs, rock carvings, inscriptions and monasteries, mani-walls and stupas found along the trekking routes, linking one place to other, are a clear indication that the routes were in-vogue used by caravan traders; these establishments were used as landmarks or guidepost for travelers. Further, proof is derived from several monumental images of Buddhists deities, which are interpreted as signs of early Buddhist culture. Certainly these images may be the result of the perpetuating tradition of rock-carving that is noticed from China to Rome in ancient time. Nevertheless, the rock images may be taken as signs of the cultural exchange between the initiators, Kashmiri, and the local population. The purpose of this study is to establish the larger cultural and historical contexts of the arts, considering the issues of patronage and art production.
    Keywords: trade, diaspora, silk road, petroglyphs, rock carvings, buddhism, culture, ladakh
    Date: 2020–06
  30. By: Fafchamps,Marcel; Shilpi,Forhad J.
    Abstract: This paper uses high-resolution satellite data on the proportion of buildings in a 250x250 meter cell to study the evolution of human settlement in Ghana over a 40-year period. The analysis finds a strong increase in built-up area over time, mostly concentrated in the vicinity of roads, and also directly on the coast. There is strong evidence of agglomeration effects in the static sense -- buildup in one cell predicts buildup in a nearby cell -- and in a dynamic sense -- buildup in a cell predicts buildup in that cell later on, and an increase in buildup in nearby cells. These effects are strongest over a radius of 3 to 15 kilometers. No evidence is found that human settlements are spaced more or less equally over the landscape or along roads. By fitting a transition matrix to the data, this paper predicts a sharp increase in the proportion of the country that is densely built-up by the middle and end of the century, but there is no increase in the proportion of partially built-up locations.
    Date: 2020–07–01
  31. By: Remi Jedwab; Adam Storeygard
    Abstract: Previous work on transportation investments has focused on average impacts in high- and middle-income countries. We estimate average and heterogeneous effects in a poor continent, Africa, using roads and cities data spanning 50 years in 39 countries. Using changes in market access due to distant road construction as a source of exogenous variation, we estimate a 30-year elasticity of city population with respect to market access of about 0.08-0.13. Our results suggest that this elasticity is stronger for small and remote cities, and weaker in politically favored and agriculturally suitable areas. Access to foreign cities besides international ports matters little. Additional evidence points suggestively to rural-urban migration as the primary source of this population increase, though we cannot fully rule out natural increase or reallocation across cities.
    JEL: F15 F16 O18 O20 R11 R12 R4
    Date: 2020–08
  32. By: Miklós Szanyi (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)
    Abstract: This paper deals mainly with the historic origins of the special rent-based East-Central European development model. The Atlantic competition-based model used to serve as a benchmark for the region’s development. However, due to various reasons discussed in this paper the Atlantic institutions remained rather weak, and much of the Ottoman-Balkan model’s features also made lasting imprints. As a result, a specific hybrid socio-economic model evolved that featured the state-permeated creation of rents and their politically predetermined distribution. The rent-based economy’s stability has been supported by external political and economic assistance. The social tensions of the political and economic backlashes have been covered by politically inflated regional conflicts, mainly ethnic rivalry. The study provides evidence on the historic determination of these features of the rent-based ECE development model.
    Keywords: historic development, private property regime, dependence, rent seeking, East-Central Europe
    JEL: N13 N14 N43 N44 P14 P16
    Date: 2020–08
  33. By: Das,Jishnu; Joubert,Clement Jean Edouard
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new decomposition method to understand how gender pay gaps arise within firms. The method accounts for pipeline effects, nonstationary environments, and dynamic interactions between pay gap components. This paper assembles a new data set covering all employees at the World Bank Group between 1987 and 2015 and shows that historical differences in the positions for which men and women were hired account for 77 percent of today's average salary difference, dwarfing the roles of entry salaries, salary growth, or retention. Forward simulations show that 20 percent of the total gap can be assigned to pipeline effects that would resolve mechanically with time.
    Keywords: Gender and Development,Labor Markets,Inequality,Human Rights,Disability
    Date: 2020–06–23
  34. By: Andreas M. Hein
    Abstract: A popular analogue used in the space domain is that of historical building projects, notably cathedrals that took decades and in some cases centuries to complete. Cathedrals are often taken as archetypes for long-term projects. In this article, I will explore the cathedral from the point of view of project management and systems architecting and draw implications for long-term projects in the space domain, notably developing a starship. I will show that the popular image of a cathedral as a continuous long-term project is in contradiction to the current state of research. More specifically, I will show that for the following propositions: The cathedrals were built based on an initial detailed master plan; Building was a continuous process that adhered to the master plan; Investments were continuously provided for the building process. Although initial plans might have existed, the construction process took often place in multiple campaigns, sometimes separated by decades. Such interruptions made knowledge-preservation very challenging. The reason for the long stretches of inactivity was mostly due to a lack of funding. Hence, the availability of funding coincided with construction activity. These findings paint a much more relevant picture of cathedral building for long-duration projects today: How can a project be completed despite a range of uncertainties regarding loss in skills, shortage in funding, and interruptions? It is concluded that long-term projects such as an interstellar exploration program can take inspiration from cathedrals by developing a modular architecture, allowing for extensibility and flexibility, thinking about value delivery at an early point, and establishing mechanisms and an organization for stable funding.
    Date: 2020–07
  35. By: Cormac Ó Gráda
    Abstract: The global COVID-19 pandemic recalls the Ebola epidemic of 2014-15 and earlier much more lethal plague epidemics. All share several characteristics, even though the second and third plague epidemics dwarfed the both the 2014-15 Ebola outbreak and COVID-19 in terms of mortality. This essay reviews the mortality due to Ebola and plague and their lethality; the spatial and socioeconomic dimensions of plague mortality; the role of public action in containing the two diseases; and their economic impact.
    Keywords: Plague; Mortality; Health; Economic history
    JEL: I1 N
    Date: 2020–08
  36. By: Eduardo De Leo; Diego Aranda; Gastón Andrés Addati
    Abstract: La dinámica de sistemas es una herramienta que se basa en la construcción de modelos que nos permite abordar situaciones complejas, aplicando la observación del todo y la relación con cada una de sus partes. Es una metodología ideada para resolver problemas concretos, fue creada en la década del 50 y se la denominó dinámica industrial, pero a lo largo del tiempo se fue adaptando para la aplicación a diferentes problemáticas. Hoy en día los campos de aplicación de la dinámica de sistemas es muy variado y amplio. Este trabajo pretende desarrollar conceptos históricos, el estado del arte, y propone analizar casos testigos donde aplicar esta temática de gran interés en la actualidad.
    Date: 2020–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.