nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒08‒31
fifty-five papers chosen by

  1. "Natural History" by Pliny the Elder as a possible source of "History of Spain" by Alfonso X the Wise (about a historiographic myth) By Aurov, Oleg (Ауров, Олег)
  2. Between Communism and Capitalism: Long-Term Inequality in Poland, 1892- 2015 By Pawel Bukowski; Filip Novokmet
  3. Leaders And Laggards In Life Expectancy Among European Scholars From The Sixteenth To The Early Twentieth Century By Robert Stelter; David de la Croix; Mikko Myrskylä
  4. The two Revolutions in Economic History By Martina Cioni; Giovanni Federico; Michelangelo Vasta
  5. The distribution of top incomes in former British West Africa 1 By Anthony B Atkinson
  6. Tying peasants to their land: The rise and fall of private property rights in historical Vietnam By Hoang-Anh Ho
  7. What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History? By Erik Bengtsson; Enrico Rubolino; Daniel Waldenström
  8. From Political Economy to Economics: How Statistics, Graphs, and the State Forged Twentieth Century Economics By Ricardo Alejandro Peña Pinzón
  9. The Long Shadow of Slavery: The Persistence of Slave Owners in Southern Law-making By Luna Bellani; Anselm Hager; Stephan E. Maurer
  10. Les vestiges antiques de Rennaz-Noville (Vaud, Suisse) et leur contexte sédimentaire : nouvelles évidences de l’écroulement du Tauredunum By Morgan Millet; Michel Guélat
  11. The Conception of Innovation on the Central Theoretical Hubs of Economic Thought By Vlados, Charis
  13. The evolution of wealth-income ratios in India, 1860-2012 By Rishabh Kumar
  14. Epidemics, inequality and poverty in preindustrial and early industrial times By Guido Alfani
  15. Political instability and economic growth at different stages of economic development:: historical evidence from Greece By Papaioannou, Sotiris
  16. Les origines d’Ostie : quelles interactions avec la dynamique d’embouchure ? (Delta du Tibre, Italie) By Ferréol Salomon
  17. Technological novelty and productivity growth: a cliometric approach. By Marianna Epicoco; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Anne Plunket
  18. Appendix to "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  19. The missing ingredient: distance internal migration and its long-term economic impact in the United States By von Berlepsch, Viola; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  20. The Employment Effect of Inward FDI in China: What Do We Learn from the History? By Hao Wang; Yuemei Ji; Qi Luo
  21. Europa, el comercio de esclavos y el subdesarrollo de África By Nogues, Julio
  22. De la formation géologique à la tranchée : trouver et comprendre les sites archéologiques menacés par les travaux d’aménagement du territoire By Patrice Wuscher; Christophe Jorda; Quentin Borderie; Nathalie Schneider; Laurent Bruxelles
  23. Reversal of economic fortunes: institutions and the changing ascendancy of Barcelona and Madrid as economic hubs By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Hardy, Daniel
  24. Simplified Distributional National Accounts By Thomas Piketty; Emmanuel Saez; Gabriel Zucman
  25. Late Colonial Antecedents of Modern Democracy By Christian Bjørnskov; Martin Rode
  26. From workers to capitalists in less than two generations: A study of Chinese urban elite transformation between 1988 and 2013 By Li Yang; Filip Novokmet; Branko Milanovic
  27. Influência Metodológica na Desindustrialização Brasileira e Correções na Composição Setorial do PIB By Morceiro, Paulo César
  28. Notes on the Main Analytical Insufficiencies of the Marxist Theoretical Tradition for the Comprehension of the Contemporary Global Economy By Vlados, Charis
  29. The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates By Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim
  30. Toxic famine research and how it suppresses its critics By Bowbrick, Peter
  31. Connection of Competitiveness and Industrial Policy: Theoretical Trends By Chatzinikolaou, Dimos; Vlados, Charis
  32. Import Substitution Industrialization [ISI]: An approach to Global Economic Sustainability By Jackson, Emerson Abraham; Jabbie, Mohamed
  33. The Classical and Neoclassical Theoretical Traditions and the Evolutionary Study of the Dynamics of Globalization By Vlados, Charis
  34. The Origins of the Division of Labor in Pre-Industrial Times By Özak, Ömer; Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio
  35. Women at Work in the Pre-Civil War United States: An Analysis of Unreported Family Workers By Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda
  36. Eurodollar Futures, LIBOR and the SFOR By Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa
  37. Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? By Qazi Haque; Nicolas Groshenny; Mark Weder
  38. Growing Cleavages in India? Evidence from the Changing Structure of Party Electorates, 1962-2014 By Abhijit Banerjee; Amory Gethin; Thomas Piketty
  39. Is there a Refugee Gap? Evidence from Over a Century of Danish Naturalizations By Nina Boberg-Fazlic; Paul Sharp
  40. Examining the Great Leveling: New Evidence on Midcentury American Inequality By Matthew Fisher-Post
  41. Evolución del supuesto de normalidad en finanzas: un análisis epistemológico del tipo Popper-Kuhn ¿Por qué la normalidad no cae en desuso? By Jaramillo-López, Oscar Andrés; Forero-Laverde, Germán; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco
  42. What Drives Financial Development? A Meta-Regression Analysis By Chris Doucouliagos; Jakob de Haan; Jan-Egbert Sturm
  43. Growing up under Mao and Deng : On the ideological determinants of corporate policies By Hao, Liang; Rong, Wang; Haikun, Zhu
  44. Top Incomes, Income and Wealth Inequality in the Netherlands: The first 100 Years 1914-2014 -what's next? By Wiemer Salverda
  45. Financialization, wealth, and the changing political aftermaths of banking crises By Chwieroth, Jeffrey; Walter, Andrew
  46. Factor Shares in the long run By Matthew Fisher-Post
  47. The Feudal Origins of Manorial Prosperity in 11th-century England By Vincent Delabastita; Sebastiaan Maes
  48. From dictatorship to crisis: The evolution of top income shares in Greece By Kostas Chrissis; Franciscos Koutentakis
  49. Politics as a determinant of primary school provision The case of Uruguay, 1914-1954 By Paola Azar
  51. How large are African inequalities? Towards Distributional National Accounts in Africa, 1990 - 2017 By Lucas Chancel; Denis Cogneau; Amory Gethin; Alix Myczkowski
  52. Ten facts about income inequality in advanced economies By Lucas Chancel
  53. Calling attention to 20 years of research: a comprehensive meta-analysis of calling By Dobrow Riza, Shoshana; Weisman, Hannah Pauline; Heller, Daniel; Tosti-Kharas, Jennifer
  54. The Ends of 30 Big Depressions By Martin Ellison; Sang Seok Lee; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  55. Robots and Employment: Evidence from Japan, 1978-2017 By ADACHI Daisuke; KAWAGUCHI Daiji; SAITO Yukiko

  1. By: Aurov, Oleg (Ауров, Олег) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The article focuses on overcoming the historiographic myth that the “Natural History” (NH) written by Pliny the Elder (c. 23-79) was used as one of the sources in the process of the medieval chronicle “Estoria de Espanna” (EE) composing. The EE was written in the vernacular (Castilian) language after 1270 at the court of Alfonso X the Wise, king of Castile and Leon (1252–1284). Manuscript materials of the period do not contain any direct evidence of Pliny’s book using in the royal scriptorium. Spanish manuscript collections have no medieval copies of the NH dated by the period of the end of the 13th century or before. Manuscript catalogs and descriptions of the greatest Castilian medieval libraries (including the famous Capitular library of the Toledo cathedral) composed from the 13th to 15th centuries don’t contain any information about any manuscript copy of NH belonged to any kind of public/ecclesiastical institution or any private person (lay magnate or prelate). The earliest copy of the NH in Toledo (and may be the earliest in all the kingdom of Castile and Leon) was the manuscript MSS/10042 (now in the National Library of Spain, Madrid). This manuscript belonged to Gil Alvárez de Albornoz y Luna (1303-1367), who was the archbishop of Toledo and then cardinal and pontifical legate in Italy; in the paper this fact is proved firstly in world historiography (before it seemed doubtful). The analysis of the EE text demonstrates that the direct and indirect allusions to the text of the NH were not taken directly from this source. But the great prestige of Pliny ́s text in Castile and Leon of the 13th century is obvious; it was one of the consequences of the “long 12th century” culture. Vivid interest to the Natural History explains why Alfonso the Wise and his co-authors who had no physical possibility to use the NH directly, but who were sure that this text must be citated in the chronicles, had to “construct” the fragment of the NH, taken from the works written by other medieval authorities. This forced falsification was a prelude for the active use of NH since the middle of the 14th century, when the Capitular Library of Toledo received some manuscripts of NH (MSS/10042 (National Library of Spain), Ms. Q-I-4 and R-I-5 (Royal Library of El Escorial) and some others) during a very short period. This interest concurs with the time, when the Primitive Version of the EE (which contained some falsified citations of Pliny’s work) was already finished.
    Date: 2020–05
  2. By: Pawel Bukowski (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Filip Novokmet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, University of Bonn, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: How has Polish inequality evolved between communism and capitalism to reach one of the highest levels in Europe today? To address this question, we construct the first consistent series on the long-term distri-bution of income in Poland by combining tax, household survey and national accounts data. We document a U-shaped evolution of inequalities from the end of the 19th century until today: (i) inequality was high before WWII; (ii) abruptly fell after the introduction of communism in 1947 and stagnated at low levels during the whole communist period; (iii) experienced a sharp rise with the return to capitalism in 1989. Between 1989 and 2015 the top 10% income share increased from 23% to 35% and the top 1% income share from 4% to 13%. We find that official survey-based measures strongly under-estimate the rise of inequality since 1989. Our new estimates show that frequently quoted Poland's transition success has largely benefited top income groups. We find that inequality was high in the first half of the 20th century due to strong concentration of capital income at the top of the distribution. The secular fall after WW2 was largely to a combination of capital income shocks fromwar destructions with communist policies both eliminating private ownership and forc-ing wage compression. The rise of inequality after the return to capitalism in the early 1990s was induced both by the rise of top labour and capital incomes. However, the strong rise in inequality in the 2000s was driven solely by the increase in top capital incomes, which is likely related to current globalization forces. Yet overall, the unique Polish inequality history speaks about the central role of policies and institutions in shaping inequality in the long run.
    Keywords: Communism,Capitalism,Inequality,Poland,capital income,distribution,concentration,market liberalisation,privatisation,top incomes
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany and Leuphana University of L¨uneburg, Institute of Economics); David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK and University of Helsinki, Finland)
    Abstract: When did mortality first start to decline, and among whom? We build a large, new dataset with more than 30,000 scholars covering the fifteenth to the early twentieth century in order to analyze the timing of the mortality decline and the heterogeneity in life expectancy gains among scholars in the Holy Roman Empire. The large sample size, well-defined entry into the risk group, and heterogeneity in social status are among the key advantages of the new database. After recovering from a severe mortality crisis in the seventeenth century, life expectancy among scholars started to increase as early as in the eighteenth century, or well before the Industrial Revolution. Our finding that members of scientific academies – an elite group among scholars – were the first to experience mortality improvements suggests that 300 years ago, individuals with higher social status already enjoyed lower mortality. We also show, however, that the onset of mortality improvements among scholars in medicine was delayed, possibly because these scholars were exposed to pathogens, and did not have germ theory knowledge that might have protected them. The disadvantage among medical professionals decreased toward the end of the nineteenth century. Our results provide a new perspective on the historical timing of mortality improvements, and the database accompanying our paper facilitates replication and extensions.
    Keywords: Mortality dynamics, differential mortality, Holy Roman Empire, Thirty Years’ War
    JEL: J11 I12 N30 I20 J24
    Date: 2020–08–17
  4. By: Martina Cioni (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena); Giovanni Federico (Division of Social Sciences, NYUAD and CEPR); Michelangelo Vasta (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena)
    Abstract: This paper compares the Cliometric Revolution, which transformed economic history in the 1960s, with the current developments in the field with a quantitative analysis based on two databases, totalling more than 3,500 articles. We show that the share of Cliometric articles in the top three economic history journals increased from 1958 to 2000 more slowly than some ex-post narratives lead to believe. We outline the developments from 2001 to 2019 by looking at economic history articles published in the top five field economic history journals and in thirteen prominent economics journals. Most articles in these latter deal with economics of the past (‘traditional cliometric’), but quite a few put forward a revolutionary change in the research questions. The ‘persistence studies’ (PS) look for the historical origins of current outcomes, the ‘non-economic outcomes studies’ (NEOS) extend the issues well beyond the traditional boundaries of economics, towards sociology, anthropology and above all political science. This Second Revolution was started by young economists who published in some of the top economics journals following the seminal article by Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001). We show that some PS have had on average a huge impact in terms of citations and that they have been more successful than the NEOS. We conclude with some musings about the future of economic history. There might be a new synthesis, with scholars integrating a wider range of research questions, ‘traditional cliometric’, PS and NEOS. Or perhaps the field will splinter in three independent research streams.
    Keywords: Cliometric Revolution, Citational success, Economic history journals, Persistence studies
    JEL: N01
    Date: 2020–08
  5. By: Anthony B Atkinson (NUFFIELD COLLEGE - Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford], Oxford Martin School)
    Abstract: This paper explores what can be learned about the upper tail of the income distribution in the British West African colonial territories, exploiting the administrative statistics on the operation of the colonial personal income tax. These statistics covering the middle of the twentieth century have definite limitations, but then little is known about the distribution of income in the colonies at that time. In historical studies of the development of the economy of Ghana (previously the Gold Coast), for example, the absence of adequate data is a constant theme: "poor statistics conspire to prevent even the roughest estimates of the overall distribution of the national income" (Killick, 1978, page 80) or "data on income distribution in Ghana are not readily available" (Huq, 1989, page 56). Writing about four countries, including Ghana and Nigeria, Phillips (later Commissioner of the Ministry of Finance in Ogun State in Nigeria), concluded that "studies of income distribution in these countries have been thin on the ground; in the few analyses that exist, size distribution has received very scant attention … in most respects, long time-series data are hard to come by" (1975, page 1).
    Keywords: distribution,colonization,West Africa,top income
    Date: 2020–05–29
  6. By: Hoang-Anh Ho
    Abstract: I present a theory to account for the emergence of land rights in a subsistence agricultural economy. An important feature is that, to maximize tax revenue, an authoritarian state must devise land rights to overcome the informational constraint in registering the population for tax collection. It can do so, given the state capacity is sufficiently high, by owning land and assigning cultivation rights (but not sale or transfer rights) to landless peasants to tie them to their land. The theory gives rise to a testable hypothesis, positing that private ownership of land is less prevalent in areas where population density is higher. In the early 19th century, the new Nguyen Dynasty of historical Vietnam carried out a land registry to establish formal land rights in the whole country. Exploiting this land registry, I discover that private ownership of land is less prevalent in areas where population density is higher. Furthermore, primary accounts and related historical studies show that the mechanism at work is in line with the proposed theory. Thus, the theory in question and the associated empirical evidence show that a strong state could reverse the general process in economic history whereby societies moved towards private land rights as population density increased and land became more scarce.
    Keywords: Land rights,Population density,Historical Vietnam
    JEL: D02 Q15 N45
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Erik Bengtsson (Lund University [Lund], GU - University of Gothenburg); Enrico Rubolino (University of Essex); Daniel Waldenström (IFN Stockholm, WIL - World Inequality Lab , CESifo - CESifo - Munich, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of the labor-capital split in national income for 20 countries since the late 1800s. Our main identification strategy focuses on unique historical quasi-experimental events: i) the introduction of universal suffrage, ii) close election wins of left-wing governments, iii) decolonization, iv) unionization shocks, and v) wars. We also run instrumented panel regressions. Our findings show that the capital share decreased in response to radical institu- tional and political shifts, such as the introduction of universal suffrage in the early 1900s, the undoing of colonialism and the implementation of redistributive policies during the post-war period. By contrast, the capital share increased following the erosion of trade unionism since the 1980s. Wars, despite destroying the capital stock, generated windfall profits that increased the capital share.
    Keywords: Capital Share,wealth,wealth inequality,Inequality,Factor shares,Event study,Economic history,Institutions World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Ricardo Alejandro Peña Pinzón
    Abstract: The purpose of this essay is to present not only the entrance but also the effect Statistics had upon the consolidation of Economics and its further influence in state intervention. The traditional method of Political Economy in the late nineteenth century disregarded Statistics as a valid approach to acquire economic knowledge. This paradigm was changed, amongst others, by the American Wesley C. Mitchell and the Englishman William Stanley Jevons, who used graphs and statistics as part of the “economic toolset” for research for causal relationships. Furthermore, Statistics only entered state intervention and planning after mayor crises (the World Wars and the Great Depression) forced states to play an active role in the economy. This essay will focus on the experience of the United States and the United Kingdom on these matters. *** El objetivo de este texto es exponer cómo la estadística entró en la ciencia económica y el impacto que tuvo en la consolidación de esta disciplina. Además, se muestra la influencia que tuvo la estadística en la intervención y planeación estatal. El método tradicional de la economía política al final del siglo diecinueve negaba la utilidad de la estadística como mecanismo de obtención de conocimiento económico. Este paradigma fue refutado, entre otros economistas, por el estadounidense Wesley C. Mitchell y el inglés William Stanley Jevons, quienes usaron gráficas y estadísticas como parte del “arsenal económico” para darse a la búsqueda de relaciones causales. En cuanto a la entrada de la estadística en la planeación e intervención estatal, fue necesario que los Estados tomaran un papel activo en la economía a raíz de crisis profundas como las dos guerras mundiales y la gran depresión. Este texto se enfocará en la experiencia de Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido.
    Keywords: Statistics, Wesley C. Mitchell, William Stanley Jevons, state intervention
    JEL: B22 B23 B41 N01
    Date: 2020–08–07
  9. By: Luna Bellani (University of Konstanz and IZA); Anselm Hager (Humboldt University and WZB); Stephan E. Maurer (University of Konstanz and CEP)
    Abstract: This paper documents the persistence of the Southern slave owning elite in political power after the end of the American Civil War. We draw on a database of Texan state legislators between 1860 and 1900 and link them to their or their ancestors’ slaveholdings in 1860. We then show that former slave owners made up more than half of nearly each legislature’s members until the late 1890s. Legislators with slave owning backgrounds differ systematically from those without, being more likely to represent the Democratic party and more likely to work in an agricultural occupation. Regional characteristics matter for this persistence, as counties with higher soil suitability for growing cotton on average elect more former slave owners.
    Keywords: Wealth Inequality, Elites and Development, US South, Intergenerational Per-sistence, Slavery
    JEL: D72 J62 N31 H4
    Date: 2020–08–17
  10. By: Morgan Millet (Archeodunum S.A. : investigations archéologiques - entreprise); Michel Guélat (Section d'archéologie et paléontologie - Office de la Culture)
    Abstract: Ancient remains have been discovered in Rennaz-Noville, in southwestern Switzerland, where the Rhône Valley opens onto Lake Geneva. The stratigraphic sections documented during the construction of a canal revealed that the sedimentary sequence consists of a deformed and compartmentalized diamicton based, according to a thrust plane, on limnic deposits. Paleosols containing artifacts included in the transported mass have been deformed to varying degrees. About one hundred archaeological structures have been discovered in one of these with, in addition, masonry in a secondary position. The collected artifacts and 14C dates converge towards an occupation between the 1st and the end of the IVth century AD. Ground movements also affect a Late Iron Age occupation, largely obliterated by the gallo-roman settlement. These facts are compatible with a thrusting triggered in the middle of the VIth century, relating to the so-called Tauredunum event in 563 AD. In addition to unpublished chronological elements, the discoveries at Rennaz-Noville thus provide new evidence on the effects of the disaster on the terrestrial environment.
    Abstract: Des vestiges antiques ont été découverts à Rennaz-Noville, dans le sud-ouest de la Suisse, au débouché de la vallée du Rhône dans le lac Léman. Les coupes dégagées lors de la construction d'un canal ont révélé que le sommet de l'accumulation sédimentaire se compose d'un diamicton déformé et compartimenté reposant, selon une surface de cisaillement, sur des dépôts limniques. Inclus à la masse transportée, des paléosols renfermant des artefacts ont subi une déformation d'amplitude variable. Une centaine de structures archéologiques ont été mises au jour dans l'un d'entre eux, auxquelles s'ajoutent des maçonneries en position secondaire. Le mobilier collecté et les datations 14C convergent vers une occupation comprise entre le Ier et la fin du IVe siècle ap. J.-C. Une occupation du Second âge du Fer, oblitérée par l'occupation antique, est également concernée par les mouvements de terrain. Tous les éléments de datation obtenus sont compatibles avec un glissement déclenché vers le milieu du VIe siècle par l'écroulement dit du Tauredunum, en 563 ap. J.-C. Outre des éléments de chronologie inédits, les découvertes à Rennaz-Noville fournissent ainsi une nouvelle argumentation sur les effets de cette catastrophe en milieu terrestre.
    Keywords: Alluvial plain,Rhône,landslide,paleosols,Gallo-Roman period,La Tène,masonries,cremations,historical sources,Plaine alluviale,glissement,paléosols,époque gallo-romaine,maçonneries,incinérations,sources historiques
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Innovation seems to be one of the most critical concepts in economics discourse nowadays. However, the contribution of some of the central theoretical hubs to economic science concerning innovation is not always exploited systematically. Therefore, this article aims to present and analyze how some of the most prominent economists in the course of history have approached the issue, as well as to attempt to synthesize this knowledge. In particular, we examine the theoretical contributions of Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and Joseph Schumpeter, as well as some relatively recent theoretical approaches to innovation that appear to draw on the work of these theorists. The central conclusion of this study is that the conceptualization of innovation, either explicitly or implicitly, has deep theoretical roots while, in particular, the finding of the dynamic nature of the phenomenon of innovation seems to have been approached by most of the critical hubs of economic analysis.
    Keywords: Innovation; Economic science; Adam Smith; Karl Marx; Joseph Schumpeter; Socioeconomic development; Socioeconomic dynamics
    JEL: B15 B52 O39
    Date: 2019–11–29
  12. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Michael Haupert (UW-La Crosse - University of Wisconsin-La Crosse)
    Abstract: Fenoaltea (2019) argues that cliometricians have failed as economists, historians , and economic historians. His argument is based on what he sees as a failure to appreciate the fine art of data gathering and what he perceives to be the lax attitude towards measurement. He embodies these complaints in the history of the creation of national income statistics, and the unforgiveable sin of economic historians who attempt to take those measurements backward in time. He concludes his polemic with his dream, that "cliometricians can take history and the humanities as seriously as we take economics, and lead us to the promised land." (2019: 12) We are unsure of exactly what the "promised land" might be, but argue that any recent issue of Cliometrica, and any article in the Handbook of Cliometrics will provide ample evidence that cliometrics is alive and well, takes both history and economics very seriously, and does so with a careful and critical eye toward context (clio) and measurement (metrics). Herewith we defend the accomplishments and current robust health of cliometrics.
    Keywords: Cliometrics,Economic History,Economics,History
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Rishabh Kumar (CSUSB - California State University [San Bernardino])
    Abstract: This article is about the metamorphoses of aggregate Indian wealth over fifteen politically transformative decades. Based on a comprehensive new database, I find that wealth-income ratios have fluctuated by large margins in the twentieth century. In emerging India of the twenty first century, wealth is steadily approaching the same disproportionate size (relative to national income) that was seen during sharp economic downturns in interwar colonial India. The long run 1939-2012 U shaped trajectories of wealth-income ratios are reasonably explained by a mid century asset price slowdown and the return of high land shares in national wealth. These results corroborate the secular increase of wealth-income ratios in most large economies since the 1980s. The manifestation of this phenomena appears to be independent of the stage of development.
    Keywords: wealth-income ratios,India,Economic growth,Wealth-Income ratio,National wealth,Inequality,Land values
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Guido Alfani (Bocconi University, Department of Social and Political Science, Dondena Centre and IGIER)
    Abstract: Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by Covid-19 induces to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually credited to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from Justinian’s Plague of 540-41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution towards the poor, or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards.
    Keywords: epidemic, pandemics, inequality, poverty, plague, Black Death, cholera, preindustrial times, wealth concentration, middle ages, early modern period
    JEL: D31 D63 I14 I30 J11 N30 N33
    Date: 2020–08
  15. By: Papaioannou, Sotiris
    Abstract: This study explores the relationship between political instability and growth within the perspective of Greece’s modern history. The narrative approach is used to identify major events of political unrest which took place in the period from 1833 onwards. Econometric estimates show that political instability exerts an adverse effect on economic growth. Likewise, poor economic performance increases the likelihood of political risk. Their relationship is not uniform across time but strengthens only after the second half of the 20th century. The impact of political instability is conditional on the stage of economic development with the most harmful effect observed in the phase of rapid industrialization. When distinguishing between permanent and temporary effects of political instability, a strongly negative effect is observed on the growth rate of potential output and a weakly negative impact on the cyclical component of GDP. Political instability is unfavorably affected by the growth rate of potential output.
    Keywords: political instability; economic growth; Greece
    JEL: N10 O47
    Date: 2020–08
  16. By: Ferréol Salomon (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: The origins of Ostia have been the subject of numerous archaeological and historical studies. According to ancient authors, the foundation of Ostia is attributed to Ancus Martius who would have reigned between 646 and 616 BCE. However, archaeological data available at Ostia do not support the existence of the city before the 4th-3rd century BCE. In this article we propose to question this chronological disagreement through a geoarchaeological perspective. Based on geomorphological and chronostratigraphic data available for the Tiber delta, we observe that the timing of the foundation of Paleo-Ostia by Ancus Martius corresponds to the end of a period of strong progradation (9th – 6th BCE) and to the beginning of a long period of erosion of the river mouth promontory. During this same period, the lowermost channel of the Tiber migrated towards the south until the 4th – 3rd century BCE. Thus, it seems inevitable that any settlement founded at the mouth of the Tiber at the end of the 7th century BCE would have been eroded by the combined action of the river and the waves in the middle of the 1st millennium BCE.
    Abstract: Les origines d'Ostie ont fait l'objet de nombreuses études archéologiques et historiques. Selon les auteurs anciens, la fondation d'Ostie est attribuée à Ancus Martius qui aurait régné entre 646 et 616 av. J.-C. Cependant les données archéologiques disponibles à Ostie ne permettent pas de remonter avant le IVe/IIIe s. av. J.-C. Dans cet article nous nous proposons d'examiner ce désaccord chronologique dans une perspective géoarchéologique. À partir d'une synthèse géomorphologique et chronostratigraphique, on observe que l'éventuelle Paléo-Ostia d'Ancus Martius aurait été fondée à la fin d'une période de forte progradation (IXe et VIe s. av. J.-C.) et au début d'une longue période d'érosion du lobe d'embouchure. Au cours de cette même période, le chenal d'embouchure du Tibre migre vers le sud jusqu'au IVe/IIIe s. av. J.-C. Il semble ainsi inévitable qu'un éventuel noyau de peuplement fondé à l'embouchure même du Tibre à la fin du VIIe s. av. J.-C. aurait été rapidement affecté par une érosion littorale et possiblement fluviale.
    Keywords: Geoarchaeology,geomorphology,Roman period,Ostia,Palaeo-Ostia,river mouth,Tiber delta,Italy,Géoarchéologie,géomorphologie fluvio-littorale,antiquité romaine,Ostie,Paléo-Ostia,embouchure,delta du Tibre,Italie
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Marianna Epicoco; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Anne Plunket
    Abstract: This paper aims at providing further empirical evidence on the long-run relationship between technology and productivity by using a cliometric approach based on Granger’s causality. We test, for the first time, the sign and direction of causality between technological novelty, which is an important driver of radical technological innovations, and productivity, for the whole 20th century. Technological novelty is here proxied by the degree of component recombination of inventions. We find that both the flow and stock of Technologically Novel Inventions (TNI) have an important, but temporary, positive impact on productivity, and that these inventions are originated by a handful of leading technological fields, mainly concentrated in the sectors of specialized suppliers of capital equipment and in science based sectors. Our results also show that, at the aggregate level, there is no causal relationship running from productivity to TNI, which suggests that radical technologies are exogenous, i.e., independent of productivity variations. However, we also find that, at technological field level, productivity has a positive or negative impact on TNI, depending on the field. This instead suggests that some radical technologies are endogenous. We conclude by discussing implications of these results on the productivity stagnation since the 1970s and the current productivity slowdown.
    Keywords: Technological novelty; Radical technologies; Productivity; Component recombination; Cliometrics; Granger’s causality.
    JEL: O33 O40 C32 N12
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This data appendix provides methodological details and complete data series for our paper "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (DINA)". It is supplemented by a set of data files and computer codes (
    Keywords: capital income,France,labor income,DINA,Distributional National Accounts,inequality,United States,World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2020–05–30
  19. By: von Berlepsch, Viola; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the twentieth century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories.
    Keywords: internal migration; distance; long-term; economic development; counties; US
    JEL: J61 N11 O15 R23
    Date: 2019–01–22
  20. By: Hao Wang; Yuemei Ji; Qi Luo
    Abstract: This study investigates the long-term influence of colonial legacy on the nexus between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor market. We construct a panel dataset containing 285 Chinese cities 2011 to 2017 along with detailed information about Chinese modern history during 1842-1955). Our results show that the inward FDI has a positive effect on employment and such an effect is more pronounced in the regions with colonial influence than their counterparts. Further, we find that the experience of Western colonization strengthens the positive effect of inward FDI on employment whereas the experience of Japanese colonization weakens or even overturns this positive effect. These findings are robust to controlling for the endogeneity between inward FDI and employment as well as employing alternative measures for the colonization.
    Keywords: colonial legacy, foreign direct investment, employment, Chinese modern history
    JEL: N01 F21 J23
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Nogues, Julio
    Abstract: Resumen Los dos capítulos incluidos en el presente trabajo representan un esfuerzo de síntesis de una pequeña fracción de la vasta literatura que existe sobre la esclavización de los africanos. Por ahora, estas notas cubren esencialmente dos objetivos: i) ofrecer una breve introducción a los aspectos generales que caracterizaron la esclavización europea de los africanos (capitulo 1) y, ii) ofrecer una revisión de impactos económicos e institucionales discutidos en varios trabajos relativamente recientes. Estos trabajos argumentan econométricamente que la esclavización europea de los africanos, concluida hace más de un siglo, ha tenido efectos perdurables que continúan frenando los procesos de desarrollo en una amplia región del África subsahariana (capítulo 2). Abstract The two chapters included in this draft seek to offer a synthesis review of a small fraction of a vast literature on the enslaving of the african people. They cover two themes: i) the first discusses salient features that characterized the transatlantic slave process during the four centuries that europeans practiced it and, ii) chapter 2 offers a synthesis of relatively recent economic contributions on the long-run effects of slavery processes on Africa’s development. Although European slavery ended more than a century ago, these contributions test the hypothesis that its impacts have been persistent to the point that they continue to affect Africa’s development process.
    Keywords: Transatlantic slave trade, violence and institutional impacts, persistent economic effects, Africa's underdevelopment
    JEL: F16 F2 F20 F22 N0 N2
    Date: 2020–09
  22. By: Patrice Wuscher (Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives); Christophe Jorda (ASM - Archéologie des Sociétés Méditerranéennes - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - MCC - Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Quentin Borderie (CG28 - Conseil général d'Eure-et-Loir. Service de l'archéologie - Conseil général d'Eure-et-Loir); Nathalie Schneider (Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives); Laurent Bruxelles (Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives)
    Abstract: Earth sciences were used since the earliest paleolithic research in the 19th century to find archaeological sites and to study the adaptation of past societies to environmental changes. They took an important role in the preventive archaeology systems developed from the 1980s to save the remains threatened by territory development. This contribution aims to illustrate the multidisciplinary approach developed over several decades, from documentary and cartographic studies to the opening of test pits. It also intends to show some contributions of geoarchaeology and preventive archaeology to geomorphological questions, to the reconstruction of landscape dynamics and to the question of human impact on the environment. The examples presented were chosen in different geographical contexts, in the south of France, Paris basin and Alsace, from the paleolithic to the modern era, to illustrate the potential of the approach which would benefit from being applied more systematically.
    Abstract: Les sciences de la terre ont été mises à contribution dès les premières recherches paléolithiques au XIXe siècle pour trouver les sites archéologiques et participer à l'étude de l'adaptation des sociétés du passé aux changements environnementaux. Elles ont pris un rôle important dans les dispositifs d'archéologie préventive élaborés à partir des années 1980 pour sauvegarder les vestiges menacés par les travaux d'aménagement du territoire. La présente contribution vise à illustrer la démarche pluridisciplinaire à l'œuvre depuis plusieurs décennies, depuis les études documentaires et cartographiques jusqu'à l'ouverture de tranchées de diagnostic. Elle se propose également de montrer quelques apports de la géoarchéologie et de l'archéologie préventive aux questions géomorphologiques, à la reconstitution des dynamiques des paysages et à l'impact de l'Homme sur l'environnement. Les exemples présentés ont été choisis dans des contextes géographiques différents, du sud de la France, du bassin de Paris et d'Alsace, du paléolithique à l'époque moderne, pour illustrer les potentiels de la démarche qui gagnerait à être appliquée de façon plus systématique.
    Keywords: Geomorphology,geoarchaeology,rescue archaeology,test pits,landscapes,Géomorphologie,géoarchéologie,archéologie préventive,diagnostics archéologiques,paysages
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Hardy, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper looks at the divergent economic trajectories of Barcelona and Madrid since Spain's transition to democracy. It highlights how Barcelona, the city that was better positioned four decades ago to emerge as the main Spanish economic hub, has lost out to Madrid. We argue that the contrasting trajectories of the two cities have less to do with the pull of Madrid as the capital of Spain, with the development of new infrastructure in the country, or with agglomeration economies, and more with institutional factors. A growing societal divide in Barcelona along economic, social, and identity lines has led to a greater breakdown of trust and to the development of strong groups with limited capacity to bridge with one another than in Madrid. This has entailed the emergence of negative externalities that have limited the economic potential for growth in Barcelona and facilitated the rise of Madrid as the main economic hub within Spain.
    Keywords: Wiley
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Emmanuel Saez (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Gabriel Zucman (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California)
    Abstract: Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2018) (hereafter PSZ) propose a method to distribute total national income across individual adults in the United States. The method has recently been applied to a number of countries as reviewed in the World Inequality Report 2018 (Alvaredo et al. 2018). The key advantage relative to earlier work using fiscal income such as Piketty and Saez (2003) or survey data is that the national income concept is comprehensive, homogeneous over time, and comparable across countries. In particular, distributional national income statistics can be used to study both growth and inequality in a consistent framework that aggregates cleanly to national income from national accounts. In contrast, fiscal income or survey income aggregates display growth levels that are quite different from national income growth both in the short-term year-to-year fluctuations and in the long-term growth rates averaged over decades (see PSZ for a detailed discussion).
    Keywords: Simplified Distributional National Accounts,DINA,distribution,national income,united States World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2019
  25. By: Christian Bjørnskov; Martin Rode
    Abstract: Some of the most contested questions in political science and political economy revolve around the conditions under which democratization is likely to happen and when democracy becomes a stable institutional choice. This paper revisits the particular claim in the democratization literature that the type of colonization, and particularly the degree to which Europeans settled in a colony, fundamentally affected the probability that democratic institutions developed and became stable. We revisit this and several other theories of democratization by using a unique source of information – the Statesman’s Yearbook – on a large number of non-sovereign countries in the immediate aftermath of WWII. Analysis shows that neither the size of the European population nor the existence of institutions of higher education appear to be important for the subsequent democratization of countries decolonized during the latter half of the 20th century, while the existence of representative political bodies during the late colonial period clearly predicts the existence and stability of democracy in recent decades.
    Keywords: Political regimes, democratization, colonialism
    JEL: P16 P48
    Date: 2020–07
  26. By: Li Yang (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Filip Novokmet (University of Bonn); Branko Milanovic (New York University - NYU - New York University [New York] - NYU - NYU System)
    Abstract: Economic and social transformation of China during the past 40 years is without precedent in human history. While the economic transformation was extensively studied, social transformation was not. In this paper, we use for the first time harmonized household surveys covering the period 1988-2013 to study the changes in the characteristics the richest 5 percent of China's urban population. We find that the elite changed from being composed of high government officials, clerical staff, and workers in 1988 to professionals and small and large business owners in 2013. The educational level of the elite increased substantially. Membership in CCP has a positive (albeit small) effect on one's income but is particularly valuable to large business owners.
    Keywords: China,elites,income share,class,top incomes
    Date: 2019
  27. By: Morceiro, Paulo César
    Abstract: Users of Brazilian National Accounts, of the second half of the twentieth century, often incorrectly calculate sectoral participation in GDP. This inadequate calculation overestimates the sectoral share because the financial dummy doesn't be eliminated from the sectoral GDP. This affects the level, peak and format of the long-term sectoral participation series, thus, it has implications for the de-industrialization debate. Methodological changes also caused serial discontinuities between 1989 and 1990 and between 1990 and 1995. A method was created to eliminate the problem of the financial dummy and methodological changes, in this way, this study shows corrected series of GDP sectoral composition from 1947 to 2017 compatible with the IBGE's current methodology. Corrected series are more consistent with economic cycles and allow a better understanding of the Brazilian deindustrialization. This study also presents new and more extensive official series of the manufacturing sector's share in GDP in the same methodology that allow a better understanding of the Brazilian deindustrialization in the period before and after the trade opening, period of difficult interpretation due to the methodological changes.
    Keywords: structural change; deindustrialization; national accounts; methodological changes; financial dummy
    JEL: E23 L16 O14
    Date: 2019
  28. By: Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This article aims to analyze how the Marxist and neomarxist approaches demonstrate a relative difficulty in understanding and interpreting the dynamics of the modern world economy (globalization). We attempt in particular to explore the interpretive capabilities and shortcomings in the approach of globalization that stem from Marx’s thought and his followers. We present, in particular, the theoretical contribution of Marx in the study of the internationalized capitalism of his era, the interpretation by Lenin based on the concept of imperialism, the subsequent developments and adjustments in the Marxist analysis of the internationalized developmental phenomenon, as well as some contemporary interpretations that link Marxism and neomarxism with globalization.
    Keywords: Marxism; Neomarxism; Marxist adjustments; Marxism and globalization; Criticism on Marxism
    JEL: B14 B24 B51
    Date: 2019–10–12
  29. By: Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim
    Abstract: This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin's seminal 1967 chapter titled “A growth cycle.†We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite significant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads the labor share. Subsequently, we summarize and update evidence on the existence of a distributive cycle, with a focus on the post-war US macroeconomy. We analyze activity and labor share series and their interaction in the frequency domain, and also employ standard vector autoregressions. Results confirm the distributive cycle across the entire US post-war period. We contextualize results vis-à -vis current topics, including a financial cycle, technical change and secular stagnation.
    Keywords: Distributive cycle; US labor share of income; neo-Goodwin. JEL Classification:E12; E24; E25; E32.
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Bowbrick, Peter
    Abstract: Bad economic theory can cause famines or stop governments from taking appropriate action to prevent famines. This can kill millions. Amartya Sen’s theory of the cause of the Bengal Famine, which is the inspiration for his ‘entitlement approach’, has been refuted again and again, in different ways, by economists of different theoretical persuasions and by statisticians expert in this area. Sen has been shown to systematically misrepresent the evidence, to make repeated, elementary, theoretical mistakes, and to use and misuse ‘meaningless’ statistics. No attempt has been made by anyone to challenge these refutations: they are incontrovertible. Sen has not retracted his theory, or any of it, which implies fraud. Yet Sen’s work is widely believed and used in famine situations. His ‘entitlement approach’, based largely on his theory of the Bengal famine, is the basis of a research programme. This paper examines how the research programme suppressed the criticisms, ignoring the normal requirements of academic and professional research and integrity. It also produced new falsehoods.
    Keywords: Famine,refutation,fabrication, false evidence, false statistics, Bengal famine, suppressing,
    JEL: H56 H84 N5 O12 Q11 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2020–07–21
  31. By: Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: A growing number of studies examine the concepts of competitiveness and industrial policy in combinatory terms. However, it seems that there is no study in the literature attempting to analyse the parallel and combined historical evolution of these two concepts. Therefore, this contribution aims to examine how recent literature links these two evolving concepts/notions. In order to achieve this goal, we distinguished several indicative scientific publications extending from 1976 to 2017 that include at the same time the words “competitiveness” and “industrial policy” in their title and examined how they deal with the connection between the two concepts. The findings suggest that the goal of sectoral competitiveness in industrial policy is the most used element until this day. However, new approaches to the phenomenon suggest a more complex relationship, especially after 2010, because the conception of industrial policy is not limited to the objective of structural change but aims increasingly at a goal of long-term overall socioeconomic competitiveness.
    Keywords: competitiveness concept; industrial policy concept; micro-meso-macro analysis; evolutionary approach; socio-economic competitiveness
    JEL: B52 F63 L52
    Date: 2019–10–22
  32. By: Jackson, Emerson Abraham; Jabbie, Mohamed
    Abstract: Globalisation has over the years brought about openness, thus creating an inextricable link among countries through various channels, including trade and investment. Consequently, there has been a substantial expansion in trade in goods and services and the flow of foreign direct investment between developed and developing countries. Even though, both have benefitted from this global openness, the balance of benefits is mainly tilted to developed countries, reinforced by the fact that developing countries have been importing more and exporting less to these countries – a reflection of the under-developed state of their industrial sector, which is evident in their export of mainly unrefined or primary products, with little or no value addition taking place. This gives attestation to the presence of an insignificant import substitution-oriented manufacturing activity in such countries, which have rendered them heavily reliant on imports for their survival – by extension making them highly susceptible to external risks and shocks. This brought about the inception of ISI, which originated from as early as in the 1930s through into the 1960s in Latin America and some parts of Asia and Africa – a notion that was meant to incorporate three stages, namely ‘domestic production of previously imported non-durable consumer goods, extension of production to a wide-range of consumer durables and complex manufactured items and finally, exporting of manufactured goods, with the vision of diversifying to multiple range of items’ (Bussell,, n/d).
    Keywords: Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI), Economic Sustainability, Globalization, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
    JEL: O12 O14 O25
    Date: 2020–01–03
  33. By: Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This article aims to present the theoretical foundations of the classical political economy through the contributions of Adam Smith and David Ricardo and to find out how their neoclassical followers interpreted, evaluated, and transformed this classical theoretical basis. Specifically, we analyze from a critical point of view the neoclassical interpretation of globalization by arguing that this theorization is probably insufficient in analytical terms. We conclude that an analytical counterproposal for the relative explanatory insufficiencies of the neoclassical synthesis is based on the modern evolutionary approach of globalization.
    Keywords: Classical political economy; Neoclassical economics critique; Evolutionary approach; Globalization
    JEL: B12 B52 F11
    Date: 2019–10–11
  34. By: Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University); Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio
    Abstract: This research explores the historical roots of the division of labor in pre-modern societies. Exploiting a variety of identification strategies and a novel ethnic level dataset combining geocoded ethnographic, linguistic and genetic data, it shows that higher levels of intra-ethnic diversity were conducive to economic specialization in the pre-modern era. The findings are robust to a host of geographical, institutional, cultural and historical confounders, and suggest that variation in intra-ethnic diversity is a key predictor of the division of labor in pre-modern times.
    Date: 2020–07–06
  35. By: Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda
    Abstract: Rates of labor force participation in the US in the second half of the nineteenth century among free women were exceedingly (and implausibly) low, about 11 percent. This is due, in part, to social perceptions of working women, cultural and societal expectations of female’s role, and lack of accurate or thorough enumeration by Census officials. This paper develops an augmented free female labor force participation rate for 1860. It is calculated by identifying free women (age 16 and older) who were likely providing informal and unenumerated labor for market production in support of a family business, that is, unreported family workers. These individuals are identified as not having a reported occupation, but are likely to be working on the basis of the self-employment occupation of other relatives in their households. Family workers are classified into three categories: farm, merchant, and craft. The inclusion of this category of workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census, from 16 percent to 56 percent, which is comparable to today’s rate (57 percent in 2018).
    Keywords: Women,Labor Force Participation,Occupational Attainment,Unpaid Workers,Unreported Family Workers,1860 Census
    JEL: N31 J16 J21 J82
    Date: 2020
  36. By: Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa
    Abstract: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is a global derivatives market place. The CME group is an order driven exchange that facilitates the trading of forward, futures and options contract on numerous products within key asset classes such as agriculture/ energy/metals, equities, interest rates, and exchange rates. Hence a very popular US interest rate futures contract is the three-month Eurodollar futures traded on the CME. The article historical in nature explores the Eurodollar, LIBOR, and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate which is to be the LIBOR replacement in 2021.
    Keywords: Eurodollar, LIBOR, Interest Rates, Financial Crises, Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR).
    JEL: E4 E5 G21 N1 N14 N2
    Date: 2020–03–19
  37. By: Qazi Haque (University of Western Australia and CAMA); Nicolas Groshenny (University of Adelaide and CAMA); Mark Weder (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University and CAMA)
    Abstract: The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage rigidity and finds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to inflation but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era. However, had the Federal Reserve in the Seventies followed the policy rule of the Volcker-Greenspan-Bernanke period, inflation volatility would have been lower by one third.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, Trend inflation, Great Inflation, Cost-push shocks, Indeterminacy
    JEL: E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2020–08–14
  38. By: Abhijit Banerjee (MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper combines surveys, election results and social spending data to document the long-run evolution of political cleavages in India. From a dominantparty system featuring the Indian National Congress as the main actor of the mediation of political conflicts, Indian politics have gradually come to include a number of smaller regionalist parties and, more recently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These changes coincide with the rise of religious divisions and the persistence of strong caste-based cleavages, while education, income and occupation play little role (controlling for caste) in determining voters' choices. We find no evidence that India's new party system has been associated with changes in social policy. While BJP-led states are generally characterized by a smaller social sector, switching to a party representing upper castes or upper classes has no significant effect on social spending. We interpret this as evidence that voters seem to be less driven by straightforward economic interests than by sectarian interests and cultural priorities. In India, as in many Western democracies, political conflicts have become increasingly focused on identity and religious-ethnic conflicts rather than on tangible material benefits and class-based redistribution.
    Keywords: India,political cleavages,economic cleavage,social spending
    Date: 2019
  39. By: Nina Boberg-Fazlic (University of Southern Denmark); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: The “refugee gap” in the economic status of refugees relative to other migrants might be due to the experience of being a refugee, or to government policy, which often denies the right to work during lengthy application processes. In Denmark before the Second World War, however, refugees were not treated differently from other migrants, motivating our use of a database of the universe of Danish naturalizations between 1851 and 1960. We consider labor market performance and find that immigrants leaving conflicts fared no worse than other migrants, conditional on other characteristics, within this relatively homogenous sample of those who attained citizenship. Refugees must be provided with the same rights as other migrants if policy aims to ensure their economic success.
    Keywords: Asylum policy, Denmark, immigration, naturalizations, refugee gap
    JEL: F22 J61 N33 N34
    Date: 2020–08
  40. By: Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab , PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Keywords: wage inequality,income inequality,Inequality,Economic history,United States
    Date: 2020
  41. By: Jaramillo-López, Oscar Andrés; Forero-Laverde, Germán; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco
    Abstract: The debate on the assumption of normality, as a necessary principle or not, in the modeling and analysis of some financial phenomena has been a common thread in the development of various areas of finance. The epistemological debate underlies a mathematical model that, despite its limitations, has had a profound impact on the evolution and development of finance. This assumption has been forged since its origin as the search for a mimetic model of reality. The Popperian and Kuhnian analysis proposed in this investigation shows that more than shadows, the assumption has brought light and has raised the technical and theoretical level through multiple generalizations and extensions. In addition to that the popularity of the assumption of normality continues. / El debate del supuesto de normalidad, como principio necesario o no, en el modelado y análisis de algunos fenómenos financieros ha sido un hilo conductor en el desarrollo diversas áreas de las finanzas. El debate epistemológico subyace en un modelo matemático que, a pesar de sus limitaciones, ha tenido un profundo impacto en la evolución y el desarrollo de las finanzas. Dicho supuesto se ha forjado desde su origen como la búsqueda de un modelo mimético de la realidad. El análisis popperiano y kuhniano propuesto en esta investigación muestra que más que sombras, el supuesto ha traído luz y ha elevado el nivel técnico y teórico a través de múltiples generalizaciones y extensiones; además de que la popularidad del supuesto de normalidad sigue aún vigente.
    Keywords: Normal distribution, methodological aspects, history of financial concepts, history of economic thought. / Distribución normal, aspectos metodológicos, historia de conceptos financieros, historia del pensamiento económico.
    JEL: B41 G10
    Date: 2020–07–19
  42. By: Chris Doucouliagos; Jakob de Haan; Jan-Egbert Sturm
    Abstract: This paper offers a meta-regression analysis of the literature on the drivers of financial development. Our results based on 1900 estimates suggest that institutional quality is positively correlated to both private sector credit and stock market capitalization (both as share of GDP). Domestic financial openness has a positive effect on both proxies for financial development, while trade openness seems only important for stock market capitalization. Inflation has an adverse effect on financial development, which is larger for stock market capitalization. Finally, we conclude that the literature has not yet robustly established that remittances and trust matter for financial development.
    Keywords: financial development, meta-regression analysis, law and finance, institutional quality, trade openness, financial openness, remittances, trust
    JEL: G21 N20 O16 O43 P48
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Hao, Liang; Rong, Wang; Haikun, Zhu
    Abstract: Economic activities have always been organized around certain ideologies, yet little is known about how ideology shapes corporate behavior and how it is different from other political forces. We investigate the impact of politicians’ ideology on corporate policies by exploring a unique setting of ideological change in China from Mao’s ideology to Deng’s around 1978. Using textual analysis based on keywords in People’s Daily, we find a discontinuity in ideological exposure among people who later became city mayors. Those who were at least 18 years old in 1978 and had joined the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are more likely to have adopted Mao’s ideology, and those who did not join by 1978, due to age limit, but joined soon thereafter were more likely to have adopted Deng’s ideology. This ideological difference has had an enduring effect on contemporary firm and city policies. Firms in cities governed by mayors with Mao’s ideology have made more social contributions, lowered within-firm pay inequality, and pursued less internationalization than those with Deng’s. These effects are stronger in firms with political connections, less state ownership, and more government subsidies as well as in regions that are more market-oriented and not “revolutionary bases.” Our results are robust to OLS regressions with various pair fixed effects besides regression discontinuity. We further find that corporate policies promoted by Mao’s ideology are associated with slower firm growth but greater stakeholder engagement.
    JEL: G30 M14 P16
    Date: 2020–08–27
  44. By: Wiemer Salverda (UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam])
    Abstract: In 2001 Tony very kindly agreed that we would work together on the top income shares for our two countries, the Netherlands and the UK. I profited enormously from his experience with top incomes and, naturally, with the UK, and, surprisingly, also with my own country. He could actually read Dutch and had much easier access to the pre-war Dutch statistics than I had. He joked about non-existent privacy concerns in the statistics of those days as that highest class of incomes counted one observation only – Tony imagined that would be Henri Deterding, chairman of Royal Dutch Shell up to 1937. I treasure the moments we sat together at Nuffield for work, at the high table, or, equally nicely, in a pub for a beer. With his guidance we successfully laid the basis for the first 85 years (1914-1999), on which I have built for a summary update of Dutch top incomes to the year 2012 (Salverda, 2013) and on which I base myself for the present paper's more extensive update to 2014. Tony has seen most of the new material (compare the Graphs section below) in July 2016 and responded, even on holiday, with some suggestions and questions. He liked chart books, well this is one. It is really very sad that we have not been able to finish this together. He liked the ‘100 years' completion of the series, and anyone who knew him would have wished him a century in good health.
    Keywords: Top Incomes,Income Inequality,Wealth Inequality,The Netherlands
    Date: 2019
  45. By: Chwieroth, Jeffrey; Walter, Andrew
    Abstract: Households face two politically salient risks associated with financial instability. The first risk, which has existed for perhaps centuries, is associated with the indirect effect of systemic banking crises on employment and income flows. The second risk arises from the direct effects of crises on asset prices and thus household wealth stocks. Historically, the second risk mainly affected only a small wealthy elite. We argue that the rapid expansion and financialization of middle class wealth since the mid-twentieth century mean that many voters now have “great expectations” regarding government responsibility to protect their wealth. The political risks of financial instability for incumbent governments have thus increased sharply, especially when institutional constraints hamper their ability to respond to voters’ new expectations. We show that the probability of incumbent governments facing significant institutional constraints retaining office after systemic banking crises has indeed fallen sharply in recent decades compared to the pre-1945 period.
    Keywords: financial crisis; wealth; financialization; Political Economy; democracy; inequality
    JEL: F50 P10 O50
    Date: 2020–06–08
  46. By: Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab , Harvard Kennedy School - Harvard Kennedy School)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to construct and then analyze a new dataset that systematically documents the labor share of national income for more than 200 countries over the past 70 years. Using new archival data on national accounts, we measure the long-run evolution of national income between factor shares (labor and capital). In addition to its implicit impor- tance in the study of inequality, the data naturally lends itself to novel empirical analysis of international patterns in tax progressivity, trade integration, technology, and labor force com- position.
    Keywords: labor share,national income,factor shares,labor,capital
    Date: 2020
  47. By: Vincent Delabastita; Sebastiaan Maes
    Date: 2020–07–16
  48. By: Kostas Chrissis (Hellenic Statistical Authority); Franciscos Koutentakis (UOC - University of Crete [Heraklion], Hellenic Parliamentary Budget Office)
    Abstract: The paper calculates the top income shares in Greece from 1967 (the seizure of power by the military dictatorship) until 2017 (the aftermath of the debt crisis). This long-run perspective allows us to examine the relationship be- tween income distribution and institutional transformations, namely democracy, finance and crisis. We find that the evolution of top income shares broadly corresponds to discrete political and economic arrangements, in particular (a) transition to democracy did not affect the income shares of the top decile, whereas social democracy had a signi_cant negative impact (b) _financial development and liberalization substantially increased the top decile shares (c) debt crisis, consolidation and recession were beneficial for the up- per ranks of the top decile.
    Keywords: Greece,top incomes,income distribution,institutional transformations,democracy,finance,crisis,dictatorship
    Date: 2019
  49. By: Paola Azar (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between school provision and the political power of the president in Uruguay between 1914 and 1954. The empirical test relies on panel fixed effects models based on newly compiled information about the partisan orientation of legislative members, the electoral competition and the schooling diffusion at the department-level. The estimates suggest the use of school provision as a pork barrel good. Ceteris paribus, school provision was lower in districts where government did not need to capture votes or to obtain legislative support. The direction of the influence shifted over time as an answer to increasing political fragmentation. Against the traditional historical narrative, these findings suggest that political interests did influence the provision of basic schooling over the territory.
    Keywords: public schooling, distributive politics, pork barrel, Uruguay
    JEL: D72 H75 I28 N36
    Date: 2020–05
  50. By: Moshe Justman (BGU)
    Date: 2020
  51. By: Lucas Chancel (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Denis Cogneau (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Amory Gethin; Alix Myczkowski
    Abstract: This paper makes a first attempt to estimate the evolution of income inequality in Africa from 1990 to 2017 by combining surveys, tax data and national accounts in a systematic manner. The low quality of the raw data calls for a lot of caution. Results suggest that income inequality in Africa is very high, and stands at par with Latin America or India in that respect. Southern and Central Africa are particularly unequal. The bulk of continent-wide income inequality comes from the within country component, and the between country component was even slightly reduced in the two last decades, due to higher growth in poorer countries. Inequality was rather stable over the period, with the exception of Southern Africa. Dualism between agriculture and other sectors and mining rents seem to be important determinants of inequality.
    Keywords: Africa,Inequalities,Income inequality,Distributional National Accounts,DINA
    Date: 2019
  52. By: Lucas Chancel (PSE - Paris School of Economics, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper presents 10 basic facts regarding inequality in advanced economies. Income and wealth inequality was very high a century ago, dropped in the 20th century, and has been rising at different speeds across countries since the 1980s. The financial crisis of 2008 does not appear to have inverted this trend. At the global level, while between-country inequality mattered more than within-country inequality in the 1980s, it is the opposite today. The rise of inequality has not been counterbalanced by an increase social mobility. The reduction of gender pay gaps has tempered the rise of inequality in recent decades, but gender inequality remains particularly high among top income and wealth groups. Racial inequalities remain large as well. Evidence suggests that trade and technology alone cannot explain large inequality variations across rich countries. Shifts in tax and wage setting policies, as well as differences in educational and health systems matter a lot.
    Keywords: inequality,advanced economies,income inequality,wealth inequality,inequality data,Distributional National Accounts,DINA,inequality measurement
    Date: 2019
  53. By: Dobrow Riza, Shoshana; Weisman, Hannah Pauline; Heller, Daniel; Tosti-Kharas, Jennifer
    Abstract: This study provides the first comprehensive meta-analysis of the relationship between calling and its central constructs. This approach sheds light on what we know, as well as what we do not know, about calling’s relationships with a range of outcomes, antecedents, and correlates to outline an agenda for future research.
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2019–08–01
  54. By: Martin Ellison; Sang Seok Lee; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.
    JEL: F33 N10
    Date: 2020–07
  55. By: ADACHI Daisuke; KAWAGUCHI Daiji; SAITO Yukiko
    Abstract: We study the impacts of industrial robots on employment in Japan, the country with the longest tradition of robot adoption. We employ a novel data set of robot shipments by destination industry and robot application (specified task) in quantity and unit values. These features allow us to use an identification strategy leveraging the heterogeneous application of robots across industries and heterogeneous price changes across applications. For example, the price drop of the welding robot relative to the assembling robot induced faster adoption of robots in the automobile industry that intensively uses welding processes than in the electric machine industry that intensively uses assembling processes. Our industrial-level and commuting zone-level analyses both indicate that the decline of robot prices increased the number of robots as well as employment, suggesting that robots and labor are gross complementary in the production process. We compare our estimates with those reported by existing studies and propose a mechanism that explains apparent differences between the results.
    Date: 2020–05

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.