nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒07‒13
63 papers chosen by

  1. Poland, the international monetary system and the Bank of England, 1921–1939 By William Anthony Allen
  2. The distribution of top incomes in former British West Africa 1 By Anthony B Atkinson
  3. Harry Johnson's "Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" - 50 Years Later By Obstfeld, Maurice
  4. Two centuries of economic growth: Norwegian GDP 1816-2020 By Grytten, Ola Honningdal
  5. Growth Recurring in Preindustrial Spain: Half A Millennium Perspective By Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro; Santiago-Caballero, Carlos
  6. The Academic Market and the Rise of Universities in Medieval and Early Modern Europe (1000-1800) By de la Croix, David; Docquier, Frédéric; Fabre, Alice; Stelter, Robert
  7. What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History? By Erik Bengtsson; Enrico Rubolino; Daniel Waldenström
  8. Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics By Jordá, Óscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.
  9. Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866-1965 By W. Walker Hanlon; Casper Worm Hansen; Jake W. Kantor
  10. Men. Roots and Consequences of Masculinity Norms By Baranov, Victoria; de Haas, Ralph; Grosjean, Pauline
  11. Economic History: ‘An Isthmus Joining Two Great Continents’? By Cormac Ó Gráda
  12. Les réseaux de Smith en Occitanie By Alain Alcouffe; Andew Moore
  13. Effects of Passive Smoking on Prenatal and Infant Development: Lessons from the Past By Ciccarelli, Carlo; De Fraja, Gianni; Vuri, Daniela
  14. The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism By Becker, Sascha O.; Mergele, Lukas; Woessmann, Ludger
  15. Appendix to "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  16. Australia’s Forgotten Copper Mining Boom: Understanding How South Australia Avoided Dutch Disease, 1843-1850 By Edwyna Harris; Sumner La Croix
  17. Fiscal Rules: Historical, Modern, and Sub-National Growth Effects By Klaus Gründler; Niklas Potrafke
  18. The persisting legacies of imperial elites among contemporary top-ranked Vietnamese politicians By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  19. Frontiers of Mobility: Was Australia 1870-2017 a more Socially Mobile Society than England? By Clark, Gregory; Leigh, Andrew; Pottenger, Mike
  20. A Glimpse of Freedom: Allied Occupation and Political Resistance in East Germany By Luis Martinez; Jonas Jessen; Guo Xu
  21. Franchise extension and fiscal structure in the United Kingdom 1820-1913: A new test of the Redistribution Hypothesis By Aidt, T.; Winer, S.; Zhang, P.
  22. The Effects of Land Redistribution: Evidence from the French Revolution By Finley, Theresa; Franck, Raphaël; Johnson, Noel
  23. Export Booms and Labor Coercion: Evidence from the Lancashire Cotton Famine By Saleh, Mohamed
  24. Howard, nation and identity: from overlapping consensus to citizenship test By Tate, John William
  25. The Great Migration of Black Americans from the US South: A Guide and Interpretation By William J. Collins
  26. Time-Varying Spillover between Currency and Stock Markets in the United States: More than Two Centuries of Historical Evidence By Semei Coronado; Rangan Gupta; Besma Hkiri; Omar Rojas
  27. Kant, providence, and the 'guarantee' of progress By Tate, John William
  28. Persistent legacy of the 1075–1919 Vietnamese imperial examinations in contemporary quantity and quality of education By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  29. Two Centuries of U.S. Banking Concentration: 1820-2019 By Fohlin, Caroline; Jaremski, Matthew
  30. Locke, Cranston and the case for toleration By Tate, John William
  31. MEstudos de História Empresarial de Portugal - O setor ferroviário By Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério
  32. Liberty, toleration and persecution: Locke, Mill and the liberal tradition By Tate, John William
  33. Locke, church and state: Stanley Fish's impossible mission By Tate, John William
  34. Jane Beats Them All: Price Formation and Financial Returns to Investing in Rare Books By Heinrich Ursprung
  35. Thomas Piketty, le capitalisme et la société juste By Nicolas Brisset; Benoît Walraevens
  36. Nicolas Kaldor, increasing returns and Verdoorn's Law By Roger Sandilands; Ramesh Chandra
  37. Semiótica, valor económico y cultural de las mercancías: enlaces de la economía con la antropología económica By José Luis Martínez Montenegro
  38. Lecture d'une évolution de la complémentaire santé des Fonctionnaires By Florian Beaucreux
  39. Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the Historical China By Olivier Damette; Stéphane Goutte; Qing Pei
  40. A century of arbitrage and disaster risk pricing in the foreign exchange market By Corsetti, Giancarlo; Marin, Emile Alexandre
  41. A Retrospective Look at The Hayek Story: Roundaboutness, Sticky Consumption, and Sequestered Capital By McClure, James; Thomas, David Chandler; Spector, Lee C.
  42. More Choice for Men? Marriage Patterns after World War II in Italy By Erich Battistin; Sascha O. Becker; Luca Nunziata
  43. John Gray, value pluralism and the limits of universalism By Tate, John William
  44. Media Competition and News Diets By Angelucci, Charles; Cagé, Julia; Sinkinson, Michael
  45. Meios de pagamento emitidos pelo Estado português By Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério
  46. Encouraging Others: Punishment and Performance in the Royal Navy By Voth, Hans-Joachim; Xu, Guo
  47. Prussia Disaggregated: The Demography of Its Universe of Localities in 1871 By Sascha O. Becker; Francesco Cinnirella
  48. Modern Library Holdings and Historic City Growth By Chaney, Eric
  49. Celso Furtado as 'Romantic Economist' from Brazil's Sertão By Jonas Rama; John Hall
  50. Paul Keating, John Howard and the 'crimson thread of kinship' By Tate, John William
  51. Identifying Innovative Actors in the Electricicity Supply Industry Using Machine Learning: An Application to UK Patent Data By Dolphin, G.; Pollitt, M.
  52. Qu’est-ce qu'un contexte ? Quentin Skinner et l'histoire des idées By Nicolas Brisset
  53. Contagion of Fear By Mitchener, Kris James; Richardson, Gary
  54. La literatura como recurso en la ensen?anza de la historia del pensamiento econo?mico: ana?lisis econo?mico de El mercader de Venecia By Carlos Javier Barbosa Castañeda; Germán Raúl Chaparro
  55. Enablers of the Neo-Liberal State? Exploring the Role of the International Accounting-Consulting Firms in Australia Since the Mid-1980s By Howard, Michael
  56. Charismatic Leaders and Nation Building By Lydia Assouad
  57. Liberalism, conservatism and contested boundaries By Tate, John William
  58. Al Qaeda, fundamentalism and modernity By Tate, John William
  59. Can stimulating demand drive costs down? World War II as a natural experiment By Lafond, Francois; Greenwald, Diana; Farmer, J. Doyne
  60. Paesani versus Paisanos: The Relative Failure of Spanish Immigrants in Buenos Aires during the Age of Mass Migration By Leticia Arroyo Abad; Noel Maurer; Blanca Sánchez-Alonso
  61. The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run By Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Zimmermann, Kaspar
  62. Does credit affect stock trading? Evidence from the South Sea Bubble By Braggion, Fabio; Frehen, Rik; Jerphanion, Emiel
  63. Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt By Kose, Ayhan; Nagle, Peter; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Sugawara, Naotaka

  1. By: William Anthony Allen (National Institute of Economic and Social Research London, England, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: The paper uses archive material, mainly from the Bank of England, to give an account of the relationship between Poland and the international monetary system between 1921 and 1939, as seen from the United Kingdom. It describes the 1923 – 1924 Hilton Young mission of ‘money doctors’ and its role in the establishment of the Bank Polski and the introduction of the złoty in 1924; the abandonment of the złoty’s gold parity in 1925; the tortuous negotiations leading to the stabilisation programme and stabilisation loan of 1927, including the Bank of England’s unsuccessful efforts to induce Poland to accept the oversight of the League of Nations; Poland’s gold purchases after the stabilisation loan; the process of deflation during the Great Depression; the abortive discussions in 1934 – 1936 of the possibility of Danzig, Germany and Poland pegging their exchange rates to sterling; the imposition of exchange restrictions in 1936; debt default in 1937; and the approach of war. It also provides information about the management of Poland’s gold and foreign exchange reserves. The narrative makes clear that it is impossible to understand Poland’s international financial affairs without reference to the international political tensions of the period.
    Keywords: Poland, United Kingdom, international monetary system, Bank Polski, Bank of England, złoty, gold exchange standard, foreign exchange, sterling bloc, exchange restrictions, default, Genoa conference, money doctors, stabilisation, League of Nations, Polish Corridor, Federal Reserve, Bank of France, Reichsbank, J.P. Morgan, Council of Foreign Bondholders, Danzig, Germany, France, Norman, Hilton Young, Grabski, Karpiński, Młynarski, Barański, Koc, Strong, Harrison, Moreau, Niemeyer, Siepmann, Schacht, Kemmerer.
    JEL: E42 E58 F33 F34 F52 N34 N44
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Anthony B Atkinson (NUFFIELD COLLEGE - Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford], Oxford Martin School)
    Abstract: This paper explores what can be learned about the upper tail of the income distribution in the British West African colonial territories, exploiting the administrative statistics on the operation of the colonial personal income tax. These statistics covering the middle of the twentieth century have definite limitations, but then little is known about the distribution of income in the colonies at that time. In historical studies of the development of the economy of Ghana (previously the Gold Coast), for example, the absence of adequate data is a constant theme: "poor statistics conspire to prevent even the roughest estimates of the overall distribution of the national income" (Killick, 1978, page 80) or "data on income distribution in Ghana are not readily available" (Huq, 1989, page 56). Writing about four countries, including Ghana and Nigeria, Phillips (later Commissioner of the Ministry of Finance in Ogun State in Nigeria), concluded that "studies of income distribution in these countries have been thin on the ground; in the few analyses that exist, size distribution has received very scant attention … in most respects, long time-series data are hard to come by" (1975, page 1).
    Keywords: distribution,colonization,West Africa,top income
    Date: 2020–05–29
  3. By: Obstfeld, Maurice
    Abstract: Fifty years ago, Harry G. Johnson published "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, 1969," its title echoing Milton Friedman's earlier classic essay of the early 1950s. Though somewhat forgotten today, Johnson's reprise was an important element in the late 1960s debate over the future of the international monetary system. The present paper has three objectives. The first is to lay out the historical context in which Johnson's "Case" was written and read. The second is to examine Johnson's main points and see how they stand up to nearly five decades of experience with floating exchange rates since the end of the Bretton Woods system. The third is to review the most recent academic critiques of exchange-rate flexibility and ask how fatal they are to Johnson's basic argument. I conclude that the essential case for exchange rate flexibility still stands strong.
    Keywords: dominant currency pricing; effective lower bound; exchange rate regimes; Floating Exchange Rates; Global financial cycle; global value chains; international monetary system
    JEL: F31 F33 F41 F42 N20 N24
    Date: 2020–03
  4. By: Grytten, Ola Honningdal (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: Existing historical GDP series for Norway do not always coincide with our historical knowledge of the economic development. This is to a large extent a result of lack of calculations from the production side and in addition to insufficient data sets upon which these series rest. The present paper offers new knowledge of historical national accounting in Norway in several ways. Firstly, a new and novel set of annual gross domestic product series by industry are presented for the period 1816-2019. Secondly, the new estimations suggest revision of the long-run GDP series. Thirdly, this implies it is necessary to revise our understanding of parts of Norwegian economic history.
    Keywords: Historical national accounting; national accounts; industrial development; Norwegian economic history
    JEL: N13 N14 O11 O14 O16
    Date: 2020–06–22
  5. By: Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro; Santiago-Caballero, Carlos
    Abstract: Research in economic history has lately challenged the Malthusian depiction of preindustrial European economies, highlighting 'efflorescences', 'Smithian' and 'growth recurring' episodes. Do these defining concepts apply to preindustrial Spain? On the basis of new yearly estimates of output and population for nearly 600 years we show that preindustrial Spain was far from stagnant and phases of per capita growth and shrinkage alternated. Population and output per head evolved along supporting the hypothesis of a frontier economy. After a long phase of sustained and egalitarian growth, a collapse in the 1570s opened a new era of sluggish growth and high inequality. The unintended consequences of imperial ambitions in Europe on economic activity, rather than Malthusian forces, help to explain it.
    Keywords: Black Death; Frontier economy; Growth recurring; Malthusian; Preindustrial Spain
    JEL: E10 N13 O10 O47
    Date: 2020–03
  6. By: de la Croix, David; Docquier, Frédéric; Fabre, Alice; Stelter, Robert
    Abstract: We argue that market forces shaped the geographic distribution of upper-tail human capital across Europe during the Middle Ages, and contributed to bolstering universities at the dawn of the Humanistic and Scientific Revolutions. We build a unique database of thousands of scholars from university sources covering all of Europe, construct an index of their ability, and map the academic market in the medieval and early modern periods. We show that scholars tended to concentrate in the best universities (agglomeration), that better scholars were more sensitive to the quality of the university (positive sorting) and migrated over greater distances (positive selection). Agglomeration, selection and sorting patterns testify to a functioning academic market, made possible by political fragmentation and the use of a common language (Latin).
    Keywords: agglomeration; Discrete choice model; Publications; Scholars; Universities; Upper-Tail Human Capital
    JEL: I25 N33 O15
    Date: 2020–03
  7. By: Erik Bengtsson; Enrico Rubolino; Daniel Waldenström
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of the labor-capital split in national income for 20 countries since the late 1800s. Our main identification strategy focuses on unique historical quasi-experimental events: i) the introduction of universal suffrage, ii) close election wins of left-wing governments, iii) decolonization, iv) unionization shocks, and v) wars. We also run instrumented panel regressions. Our findings show that the capital share decreased in response to radical institu-tional and political shifts, such as the introduction of universal suffrage in the early 1900s, the undoing of colonialism and the implementation of redistributive policies during the post-war period. By contrast, the capital share increased following the erosion of trade unionism since the 1980s. Wars, despite destroying the capital stock, generated windfall profits that increased the capital share.
    Keywords: inequality, factor shares, event study, economic history, institutions
    JEL: D33 E02 N00
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Jordá, Óscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.
    Abstract: How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
    Keywords: depressions; local projections; Natural rate; Pandemics; Real interest rate; wars
    JEL: E43 F41 N10 N30 N40
    Date: 2020–03
  9. By: W. Walker Hanlon; Casper Worm Hansen; Jake W. Kantor
    Abstract: Using weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our results show that both warm and cold weeks were associated with elevated mortality in the late 19th-century, but heat effects, due mainly to infant deaths from digestive diseases, largely disappeared after WWI. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deaths–equal to 0.8-1.3 percent of all deaths–were averted. Our findings also indicate that a series of hot years in the 1890s substantially changed the timing of the infant mortality decline in London.
    JEL: I15 N3 Q54
    Date: 2020–06
  10. By: Baranov, Victoria; de Haas, Ralph; Grosjean, Pauline
    Abstract: Recent research has uncovered the historical roots of gender norms about women and the persistent impact of such norms on economic behavior. We document similar roots and consequences of masculinity norms: beliefs about the proper conduct of men. We exploit a natural historical experiment in which convict transportation in the 18th and 19th century created a variegated spatial pattern of sex ratios across Australia. We show that areas that were heavily male-biased in the past (though not the present) remain characterized by more violence, higher rates of male suicide and other forms of preventable male mortality, and more male-stereotypical occupational segregation. Further evidence indicates that in these historically male-biased areas, more Australians recently voted against same-sex marriage and that boys-but not girls-are more likely to be bullied in school. We interpret these results as manifestations of masculinity norms that emerged due to intense local male-male competition and that persisted over time through peer socialization in schools.
    Keywords: Cultural persistence; identity; Masculinity; Natural Experiment; Sex ratio
    JEL: I31 J12 J16 N37 Z13
    Date: 2020–03
  11. By: Cormac Ó Gráda
    Abstract: This paper offers (yet another) reflection on the history and current status of economic history. No other sub-discipline of economics or history has tried so hard to be loved as economic history. That love is unrequited, because economic history’s problem is existential: it is an inherently interdisciplinary field. Economists and historians are interested in only small parts of what economic history should embrace. Some examples are given of how narrow views of the past the impoverish research. Not all is gloom and doom, however. The controversies economic history provokes and the insights it provides touch on issues that resonate and that will continue to do so.
    Keywords: Economic history; Cliometrics
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2020–01
  12. By: Alain Alcouffe (UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole); Andew Moore
    Abstract: From March 1764 to October 1765, Smith and Henry Scott, heir to the Dukedom of Buccleugh, made Toulouse their home port. During this period they were in permanent contact with many French people, and others from Scotland, Ireland, England or Norway. These networks (Scottish, British, Protestant, and Freemasons) aided travel and made life more enjoyable. Facilitated by David Hume, Smith and his pupil became familiar with one Seignelay Colbert of Castlehill, himself a Scottish immigrant, who was at the start of a career that saw him play an important part in the lead up to, the events of, and the aftermath of the Revolution. His letters to the Scottish visitors enlighten us on the social life of the upper classes in the last decades of Ancient Regime as well on the sentimental life of the protagonists.
    Keywords: Scottish emigration,Scottish emigration Keywords : Adam Smith,Bagnères de Bigorre,Adam Smith,Duke of Buccleugh,Hume,Seignelay Colbert of Castlehill
    Date: 2018–07–17
  13. By: Ciccarelli, Carlo; De Fraja, Gianni; Vuri, Daniela
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of passive smoking on child development. We use data from a time when the adverse effects of smoking on health were not known, and when tobacco was not an inferior good. This allows us to disentangle the effect on foetuses and infants of smoking from that of other indicators of social and economic conditions. We exploit a set of unique longitudinal historical datasets defined at a detailed level of geographical disaggregation, namely the 69 Italian provinces. The datasets record precise information on the per capita consumption of tobacco products, the heights of twenty-year old conscripts in the second half of the 19th century Italy, and other relevant controls. We find a strong negative effect of smoking in the period before and after birth on the height at age 20. Results are robust to changes in specification and consistent across the height distribution.
    Keywords: Infant Development; Nineteenth Century Italy; Passive Smoking; Stature
    JEL: I12 J13 N33
    Date: 2020–03
  14. By: Becker, Sascha O.; Mergele, Lukas; Woessmann, Ludger
    Abstract: German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of communism. We show in three steps that the populations in East and West Germany were far from being randomly selected treatment and control groups. First, the later border is already visible in many socio-economic characteristics in pre-World War II data. Second, World War II and the subsequent occupying forces affected East and West differently. Third, a selective fifth of the population fled from East to West Germany before the building of the Wall in 1961. In light of our findings, we propose a more cautious interpretation of the extensive literature on the enduring effects of communist systems on economic outcomes, political preferences, cultural traits, and gender roles.
    Keywords: Communism; Culture; Germany; Political Systems; preferences
    JEL: D72 H11 N44 P26 P36
    Date: 2020–03
  15. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon, LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This data appendix provides methodological details and complete data series for our paper "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (DINA)". It is supplemented by a set of data files and computer codes (
    Keywords: capital income,France,labor income,DINA,Distributional National Accounts,inequality,United States,World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2020–05–30
  16. By: Edwyna Harris (Monash University); Sumner La Croix (University of Hawai‘i)
    Abstract: Great Britain established the new colony of South Australia in 1834 and migration from Britain to the colony began in 1836. After six turbulent years, the discovery of two large deposits of copper at Kapunda (1843/1844) and Burra (1844/1845) renewed the colony’s economic prospects. Over the 1845-1850 period, SA supplied 8-9 percent of the world’s copper production. Immigration to SA from Britain soared, with the colony’s population more than tripling between 1844 and 1851. We augment the Beine et al. (2015) model of an economy with a booming resource sector to incorporate endogenous immigration, and use its comparative statics to frame our empirical investigation of the boom’s effects on the export of other traded goods and worker living standards. Using newly developed SA wage and price series for this period, we find modest increases in SA living standards, increases in the export of wool and wheat, and a larger share of the labor force working in the non-traded goods sector. Finally, we conclude that the decision by Governor Grey to force broad ownership of the “monster” Burra mine and the use of rents from the booming sector to subsidize immigration helped SA avoid the corruption and rent-seeking associated with other resource booms.
    Keywords: copper mining; Dutch disease; standard of living; South Australia; immigration
    JEL: Q33 N47 N57 F22
    Date: 2020–06
  17. By: Klaus Gründler; Niklas Potrafke
    Abstract: We examine how fiscal rules influence economic growth. The results show that constitutional fiscal rules promoted growth from the Industrial Revolution until World War II (1789-1950) and also increased modern economic growth (1985-2015). To address selection on unobservables, we conduct a large-scale international survey among 1,224 economic experts in 109 countries. We exploit cross-country differences in expert preferences as an instrumental variable for the adoption of constitutional fiscal rules. The results show that the cumulative long-run effect of permanently adopting constitutional fiscal rules on real per capita GDP is 18%. As a complementary strategy to tackle unobservables, we examine sub-national fiscal rules, employing a newly collected dataset of 206 regional governments from 10 federal states (1992-2012). The results show that fiscal rules also increased economic growth at the sub-national level.
    Keywords: fiscal rules, economic growth, constitutions, historical public finance
    JEL: O11 O12 D74
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This study investigated how the legacies of Vietnamese elites continue to affect top-ranked politicians in Vietnam. We therefore compared a list of elites who passed the imperial examination (1075–1919) at the national level with a list of currently active Vietnamese top-ranked politicians (1930–2020) by matching their home districts. We used the average distance from each district to imperial test venues as instrumental variables for estimating possible connections at the district level. Results showed strong and persistent imperial legacies based on these home districts. This suggests the existence of persistent transmissions via informal institutions and channels of home favoritism.
    Keywords: Legacy; Elite; Imperial elite; Politician, Vietnam
    JEL: J62 N35 N45 P26
    Date: 2020–06–03
  19. By: Clark, Gregory; Leigh, Andrew; Pottenger, Mike
    Abstract: There is longstanding pride among Australians that by throwing off the social class demarcations that defined the ossified parent society, England, they created an open, socially mobile society. The paper tests this belief by estimating long run social mobility rates in Australia 1870-2017, using the status of rare surnames. The status information includes occupations from electoral rolls 1903-1980, and records of degrees awarded by Melbourne and Sydney universities 1852-2017. Status persistence was strong throughout, with an intergenerational correlation of occupational or educational status of 0.7-0.8, and no change over time. Mobility rates were also just as low for mobility rates within UK immigrants and their descendants, so ethnic effects explain none of the immobility. The much less pronounced class divisions of Australia compared to England did not enhance social mobility. One sign of apparent enhanced Australian social mobility â?? the fact that surnames associated with convicts already had a modest elite status by 1870 â?? seems to derive from convicts transported to Australia from England being positively selected in terms of human capital.
    Keywords: Intergenerational social mobility
    Date: 2020–03
  20. By: Luis Martinez (University of Chicago); Jonas Jessen (the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)); Guo Xu (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: This paper studies costly political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered in May 1945, 40% of the designated Soviet occupation zone was initially captured by the western Allied Expeditionary Force. This occupation was short-lived: Soviet forces took over after less than two months and installed an authoritarian regime in what became the German Democratic Republic (GDR). We exploit the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within the GDR to show that areas briefly under Allied occupation had higher incidence of protests during the only major episode of political unrest in the GDR before its demise in 1989 - the East German Uprising of 1953. These areas also exhibited lower regime support during the last free elections in 1946. We argue that even a “glimpse of freedom" can foster civilian opposition to dictatorship.
    Keywords: German Democratic Republic; East Germany,World War II, Dictatorship, Protests, Soviet Union, Line of Contact, Regression Discontinuity Design
    JEL: D72 D74 P26
    Date: 2020–04
  21. By: Aidt, T.; Winer, S.; Zhang, P.
    Abstract: We study the effect of franchise extension on the fiscal structure of central and local governments in the United Kingdom between 1820 and 1913 to revisit the Redistribution Hypothesis - the prediction that franchise extension causes an increase in state-sponsored redistribution. We adopt a novel method of uncovering causality from non-experimental data proposed by Hoover (2001). This method is based on tests for structural breaks in the marginal and conditional distributions of the franchise and fiscal structure time series preceded by a detailed historical narrative analysis. We do not find any compelling evidence that supports the Redistribution Hypothesis.
    Keywords: Franchise extension, redistribution, democratization, causality, structural breaks, local government, central government, historical narrative
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2020–02–09
  22. By: Finley, Theresa; Franck, Raphaël; Johnson, Noel
    Abstract: This study exploits the confiscation and auctioning off of Church property that occurred during the French Revolution to assess the role played by transaction costs in delaying the reallocation of property rights in the aftermath of fundamental institutional reform. French districts with a greater proportion of land redistributed during the Revolution experienced higher levels of agricultural productivity in 1841 and 1852 as well as more investment in irrigation and more efficient land use. We trace these increases in productivity to an increase in land inequality associated with the Revolutionary auction process. We also show how the benefits associated with the head-start given to districts with more Church land initially, and thus greater land redistribution by auction during the Revolution, dissipated over the course of the nineteenth century as other districts gradually overcame the transaction costs associated with reallocating the property rights associated with the feudal system.
    Keywords: Coase theorem; French Revolution; institutions; Property rights
    JEL: D47 N53 O43 P14
    Date: 2020–03
  23. By: Saleh, Mohamed
    Abstract: Price booms in labor-intensive exports are expected to benefit labor. The surging demand for labor can increase labor coercion, though, if labor is relatively scarce. Using a unique natural experiment, the Lancashire cotton famine in 1861-1865 that prompted Egypt to quadruple its cotton output, and a novel data source, Egypt's population censuses of 1848 and 1868, I document that the cotton famine had a positive impact on labor coercion in rural Egypt. Agricultural slavery emerged, with an influx of imported slaves from Sudan. Owners of large estates confiscated areas with larger (non-slave) local populations. It also had a positive impact on the non-coercive employment in agriculture of local labor. I explain these findings by the scarcity of local labor relative to cotton expansion, and by large landholders' exclusive right to coerce local labor. The findings accentuate the far-reaching unintended consequences of globalization on labor in poorer economies.
    Keywords: Cotton; Globalization; Labor coercion; Labor scarcity; Slavery
    JEL: F16 J47 N35
    Date: 2020–03
  24. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: The very longevity of John Howard’s period in office means that we often forget to what extent his electoral success from 1996 to 2007 transformed the fortunes of the Liberal Party of Australia. We can regain a sense of this if we re-read the opening chapter of Gerard Henderson’s book, Menzies’ Child, published in 1994, a year prior to John Howard’s resumption of the Liberal leadership and two years prior to his electoral victory in 1996. When Henderson published this book, the Liberal Party had been out of national office for eleven years, and the very bleakness of their plight resonated in his prose. Henderson argued that the problem that beset the Liberal Party was one of leadership. Not that leadership was absent, but rather that it dominated the party – that the Liberals had a “leadership fixation†or a “Messiah complex†.
    Keywords: John Howard; Australian politics; Liberal Party
    JEL: D70 Z10
    Date: 2019
  25. By: William J. Collins
    Abstract: The Great Migration from the US South is a prominent theme in economic history research not only because it was a prime example of large scale internal migration, but also because it had far-reaching ramifications for American economic, social, and political change. This essay offers a concise review of the literature focused on questions of timing, selection, and migrants’ outcomes, and then offers a more speculative interpretation of how the Great Migration fostered the advancement of Civil Rights.
    JEL: J15 J61 J7 N32 N92
    Date: 2020–05
  26. By: Semei Coronado (Independent Consultant. 16366 Avenida Venusto Unit C, San Diego, CA, 92128, U.S.); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Besma Hkiri (Department of Finance and Economics, College of Business, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia); Omar Rojas (Universidad Panamericana, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Álvaro del Portillo 49, Zapopan, Jalisco, 45010, México)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze time-varying causality between the dollar-pound exchange rate and S&P 500 returns over the monthly period of September, 1791 to September, 2019. Based on a Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) framework, we find that evidence of unidirectional causality between the two returns is in general weak, and primarily restricted to the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement. However, instantaneous spillover across the returns of these two markets is quite strong, which in turn tends to suggest the existence of nonsynchronous trading and also high-frequency causal dependency, with the latter confirmed based on daily data covering January 3rd, 1900 to October 4th, 2019. Moreover, the underlying DCC reveals that there is actually portfolio diversification opportunities for investors. Finally, an analysis of the second moments reveal much stronger evidence of volatility spillover between these two assets, when compared to the return linkages. This result has important implications from the perspective of policy making aiming to reduce the impact of uncertainty on the real economy.
    Keywords: Time-varying Granger causality, currency and equity markets, returns and volatilities
    JEL: C32 F31 F31 G10
    Date: 2020–06
  27. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: Kant’s conception of providence is often thought to occupy an anomalous position relative to his critical philosophy. Scholars have differed on whether it is consistent or inconsistent with his wider philosophical position. This article seeks to provide an explanation of Kant’s desire to view human history in terms of providence – and argues this arises both as a result of his Enlightenment commitments and his previous commitment to theodicy. It also considers the question of whether Kant’s postulation of providence is consistent with his wider critical philosophy.
    Keywords: Kant; providence; progress; philosophy; theodicy
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2019
  28. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: We investigated the impact of individuals who passed the Vietnamese imperial examinations (1075–1919) on the present-day quantity and quality of education in their home districts. We layered the 2009 Population and Housing Census and the 2009 National Entrance Exams to University (NEEU) test scores on the geographical distribution of imperial test takers’ home districts. We constructed a novel instrumental variable representing the average distance between the examinees’ home districts and the corresponding imperial examination venues. We found a persistent legacy in the average years of schooling, literacy rate, school attendance rate, NEEU test scores, and primary school dropout rate.
    Keywords: Education; Human Capital; Imperial Examination; Historical Legacy; Vietnam
    JEL: I25 N35 O15
    Date: 2020–05–03
  29. By: Fohlin, Caroline; Jaremski, Matthew
    Abstract: Concentration plays a key role in banking efficiency and stability, yet the literature lacks any long-run analysis of U.S. banking industry structure. This paper uses newly-collected archival data to provide the first study of banking concentration from the early years of the republic through 2019. While concentration was declining or stable before the mid-1920s, statistical tests identify a structural break thereafter, as concentration started steadily rising as a result of growth at the nation's largest five banks, particularly those located in New York City. A second structural break in the mid-1990s further accelerated the upward trend in concentration before slowing down during the Great Recession.
    Keywords: bank concentration; Too Big To Fail
    JEL: E44 G20 N11
    Date: 2020–03
  30. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, School of Humanities and Social Science)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on one of the most established names in twentieth century Locke studies, Maurice Cranston, and considers Cranston’s interpretation of John Locke’s theory of toleration. It argues that Cranston misunderstands Locke’s theory at several basic and fundamental points. By considering Cranston’s interpretation of Locke, and its pitfalls, we are able to gain a clearer understanding of Locke’s theory itself. This in itself is worthwhile given the contemporary salience of that theory, one commentator even insisting that current discussions of religious toleration have not advanced beyond the definitive framework that Locke established for this issue over three hundred years ago.
    Keywords: John Locke; political theory; political philosophy; Maurice Cranston; toleration; freedom;
    JEL: D63 Z12
    Date: 2019
  31. By: Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério
    Abstract: This working paper aims to be the first one of a set to be prepared and published along the next years, with the final purpose of preparing a Business History of Portugal. It summarizes the evolution of the railroad sector in Portugal, both from the perspective of the availability of the railway service, and from the perspective of the firms that built the infrastructure or provided that service.
    Keywords: Portugal, railroads, railway firms JEL classification: L92 – caminhos-de-ferro e outros transportes de superfície / railroads and other surface transports
    Date: 2020
  32. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: Although completing their major work over one hundred and fifty years apart, John Locke and John Stuart Mill are two seminal figures in the development of the liberal tradition. However some recent commentators have seen Mill as far more at home in this tradition than Locke, even presenting key aspects of Locke’s political philosophy as having distinctly anti-liberal implications centered on persecution. This paper challenges this view and, in fact, reverses it, insisting that it is the seventeenth century figure of Locke who is far more compatible with what we now understand as the liberal tradition than his illustrious Victorian successor.
    Keywords: John Locke; John Stuart Mill; political philosophy; political theory
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2019
  33. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: Stanley Fish’s critique of liberalism is a challenging one. This paper seeks to show how Fish’s most comprehensive attempt to deconstruct the liberal tradition is subject to fundamental flaws due to Fish’s failure to come to grips with the very foundations of liberalism itself. In particular, Fish places great emphasis on the seventeenth century English philosopher, John Locke, as the inaugurator of the basic “contradiction†to which, he believes, liberalism is beset. This paper shows that Fish has fundamentally misunderstood Locke and therefore has misunderstood the “contradiction†which he believes Locke’s political philosophy inaugurates for liberalism. Ultimately therefore, Fish’s broad challenge to liberalism, which he has also pursued in other writings, is weakened by the fact that what he perceives to be the root of the liberal problem was not present within the roots of liberalism at all.
    Keywords: Stanley Fish; liberalism; liberal tradition; John Locke
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2019
  34. By: Heinrich Ursprung
    Abstract: I report historical prices and estimate financial returns to investing in rare books. My sample consists of 25 fiction titles recommended by Clifton Fadiman in his 1960 Lifetime Reading Plan. Relying on prices realized at American and British auction houses between 1975 and 2018, I use hedonic regressions to estimate the average rate of return to each of the 25 titles. Jane Austen’s novel Pride and Prejudice tops the returns to all other titles. I then construct for the entire sample of rare books price indices based on various specifications with a view to identifying the most efficient way of computing rare book price indices for larger samples of books. Estimating the financial return to investing in rare books in general, I arrive for the boom period 1975-2007 at a real rate of return of about 4.6%, which exceeds similar estimates for investing in fine art. In a comparison with the returns in 1975-2007 of almost 9% from the US stock market, investing in rare books is justified only by substantial nonpecuniary returns.
    Keywords: are books, price indices, investment in collectibles, cultural economics
    JEL: G11 Z11
    Date: 2020
  35. By: Nicolas Brisset (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Benoît Walraevens (Université de Caen-Normandie, France; CREM CNRS)
    Abstract: Le présent article revient sur le dernier ouvrage de Thomas Piketty, Capital et idéologie (2019). Nous commençons par inscrire l’ouvrage dans l’argument développé par l’auteur dans ses précédents ouvrages, avant d’en souligner un certain nombre de limites. Nous questionnons d’abord la manière dont Piketty pense le capitalisme, avant d’en venir à sa théorie de l’idéologie. Enfin, nous tenterons de définir les contours et limites du projet de dépassement du capitalisme de Piketty.
    Keywords: Thomas Piketty, Capitalisme, Propriété, Idéologie, Justice sociale
    JEL: B4 B51 D63 N01
    Date: 2020–06
  36. By: Roger Sandilands (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Ramesh Chandra
    Abstract: Kaldor, a student of Allyn Young, made much of Verdoorn’s Law but the evidence for this ‘law’ is at best mixed. Verdoorn himself in his 1980 Economic Journal paper made it clear that his law did not have as general a validity as he had earlier believed. Evidence suggests that it is possible for agricultural productivity to grow many times faster than that in manufacturing, as in the US during 1947-84. Also, Young (1928) himself did not regard the law of diminishing returns as useful for prophesying the prospects of agriculture as the agricultural fields of newer lands had been brought closer to the older world through revolution in transportation and technical change in agriculture. Moreover, the logic of Verdoorn’s Law of favouring manufacturing at the cost of other sectors distorts intersectoral relationships, leads to adverse terms of trade for agriculture, and is likely to pose a demand constraint for industry itself. To undo one wrong (i.e., protection to industry), one has to match it with other wrongs like price support and marketing board in agriculture, and dual exchange rates to promote exports. The whole economic system becomes an intricate maze with adverse consequences for growth and productivity for the whole economy.
    Keywords: Verdoorn’s Law, Increasing returns, Nicholas Kaldor, Allyn Young, Lauchlin Currie
    JEL: B10 B20 B31 O21 O14 O41
    Date: 2020–03
  37. By: José Luis Martínez Montenegro
    Abstract: El presente ensayo busca responder cómo desde la perspectiva de la antropología económica se puede comprender que el valor económico de las mercancías está determinado en cierta medida por la cultura y por el efecto de la cultura creada por el sistema de producción capitalista en la actualidad: la cultura del consumo. Además, expone que dentro de la vida cotidiana de este siglo es posible observar que el valor de las mercancías se encuentra explicado por la semiótica detrás de los bienes y servicios. En consecuencia, la categoría de valor termina por cobrar un sentido diferente al usualmente expuesto tradicionalmente por los economistas clásicos. *** This essay seeks to answer how from the perspective of economic anthropology it could be understood that the economic value of goods is determined to some extent by culture and by the effect of culture created by the capitalist production system in the present: the culture of consumption. In addition, it is stated that within the daily life of this century, it is possible to observe that the value of merchandise is explained by the semiotics behind goods and services. Consequently, the value category ends up charging a different meaning to the one traditionally exposed by classical economists.
    Keywords: valor económico, antropología económica, mercancías, cultura
    Date: 2020–06–17
  38. By: Florian Beaucreux (REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne)
    Abstract: The article offers a reading of the model of mutual insurance companies for civil servants in order to understand the issues at stake in the current reshaping of the complementary health insurance market. The author draws on the history of social protection for civil servants and the materialization of the associated values through the coupling of compulsory and complementary health insurance schemes to show the evolution of individual rationality. The author thus analyses the new framework of participation of the public employer in the prism of this evolution in order to highlight the paradox existing between the intention of its mechanisms and the effects on the role of the individual in the construction of his complementary social protection.
    Abstract: L'article offre une lecture du modèle des mutuelles de fonctionnaires afin de comprendre les enjeux de la recomposition actuelle du marché de l'assurance maladie complémentaire. L'auteur s'appuie sur l'histoire de la protection sociale des fonctionnaires et la matérialisation des valeurs associées à travers le couplage des régimes obligatoires et complémentaires d'assurance maladie pour montrer l'évolution de la rationalité individuelle. L'auteur analyse ainsi le nouveau cadre de participation de l'employeur public au prisme de cette évolution pour mettre en avant le paradoxe existant entre l'intention de ses mécanismes et les effets sur le rôle de l'individu dans la construction de sa protection sociale complémentaire.
    Keywords: Mutuelle,Cotisations,Assurance maladie complémentaire,Valeurs,Solidarité
    Date: 2020–04
  39. By: Olivier Damette (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Qing Pei (EdUHK - The Education University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: This paper deals with climate change and nomadic migration relationships at a long term and wide geographical scale using a statistical approach in the vein of Bai and Kung (2011). More precisely, it presents a reassessment of these relationships in a nonlinear world using threshold regressions, time varying-copula and nonlinear causality tests. The large amount of historical records in China enables us to re-interpret the link between climate and historical social dynamics (Hsiang et al., 2013) through different regimes of temperatures and precipitations.
    Keywords: Copula,Cau,Non linearity,Threshold Regression,Historical China,Conflicts,Nomadic migration,Climate change
    Date: 2020–06–02
  40. By: Corsetti, Giancarlo; Marin, Emile Alexandre
    Abstract: A long-standing puzzle in international finance is that a positive interest rate differen- tial systematically forecasts an exchange rate appreciation-the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) puzzle. Hence, a carry trade portfolio long in high yield currency bonds funded by borrowing in low yield currencies can be expected to yield positive profits. Following the Great Financial Crisis, however, the sign of the puzzle has changed-positive differentials forecast excessive depreciation-and carry trade has withered after the large losses suffered by investors in 2007-2008. In this paper, we use a century-long time series for the GBP/USD exchange rate to show that a sign switch is neither new, nor, arguably, a new puzzle. First, it is not new in the data-by virtue of a long sample featuring infrequent, non-overlapping currency crashes, we document that switches systematically occur in crises such as the Great Depression in the 1930s and the exchange rate turmoil of the 1990s. However, UIP devi- ations, sharp in either direction for short- to medium-horizon portfolios, remain small to almost negligible for long-horizon investment portfolios. Second, we argue that our century- long evidence is consistent with models featuring a time-varying probability of disasters or 'Peso events,' specified so to account for the difference in UIP deviations in crisis and nor- mal times, as well as for a decreasing term structure of carry trade returns that on average characterize the data.
    Keywords: carry trade; Currency Crises; Fama Puzzle; Great Depression; Peso Problem; uncovered interest parity
    JEL: F31 F41 G15
    Date: 2020–03
  41. By: McClure, James (Ball State University); Thomas, David Chandler; Spector, Lee C.
    Abstract: Friedrich Hayek’s business cycle theory, withered throughout the 1930s as he admitted that its underlying model of Böhm-Bawerkian roundaboutness was incomplete and inadequate. In 1934, Hayek started a two-volume book on capital theory, completing only one volume in 1941. Curiously, Hayek (1941) cites Hicks’ (1939) Value and Capital but not the financial measure of roundaboutness that Hicks suggested as a substitute for Böhm-Bawerkian roundaboutness. In 1967, Hicks criticized the inexplicable lags in The Hayek Story. Hayek maintained his view that consumption was sticky and responded to Hicks with a mound-of-honey analogy. Nevertheless, Hayek maintained that his business cycle theory was fundamentally correct and continued to hope that others might someday discover a capital structure theory to undergird it. Toward fulfilling Hayek’s hope, we suggest augmenting the canonical stages of production with a sequestered-capital stage where products are invented, productized, and inventoried prior to launch, uncoordinated by observable prices.
    Date: 2020–05–19
  42. By: Erich Battistin; Sascha O. Becker; Luca Nunziata
    Abstract: We investigate how changes in the sex ratio induced by World War II affected the bargaining patterns of Italian men in the marriage market after the war. Marriage data from the first wave of the Italian Household Longitudinal Survey (1997) are matched with newly digitized information on war casualties coming from Italian National Bureau of Statistics. We find that men in post-war marriages were better off in terms of their spouse’s education, this gain amounting to about half a year of education. By considering heterogeneity across provinces, we find that the effects were more pronounced in more rural provinces, mountainous provinces, and those with a higher share of population employed in agriculture. This suggests that here, the shock provided for a more fundamental change in marriage patterns compared to urban, lower-lying, and less agricultural provinces where marriage markets might have been more flexible to begin with.
    Keywords: education, marriage, sex ratio, World War II
    JEL: J12 N34
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: In a feitschrift celebrating the thought of the political philosopher John Gray, published in 2007, Gray is described as “one of the most challenging and controversial political theorists in the English-speaking world.†Perhaps this is due to his contrariness. Gray likes nothing better, it seems, than to swim against a philosophical tide.
    Keywords: John Gray; value pluralism; universalism; political philosophers
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2019
  44. By: Angelucci, Charles; Cagé, Julia; Sinkinson, Michael
    Abstract: News media operate in two-sided markets, offering bundles of content to readers as well as selling readers' attention to advertisers. Technological innovations in content delivery, such as the advent of broadcast television or of the Internet, affect both sides of the market, threatening the basic economic model of print news operations. We examine how the entry of television affected local newspapers as well as consumer media diets in the United States. We develop a model of print media and show that entry of national television news could adversely affect the provision of local news. We construct a novel dataset of U.S. newspapers' economic performance and content choices from 1944 to 1964. Our empirical strategy exploits quasi-random variation in the timing of the entry of television in different markets. We show that the entry of television was a negative shock for newspapers, particularly evening newspapers, in both the readership and advertising markets. Further, we find a drop in the total quantity of news printed, in particular original reporting, raising concerns about the provision of local news.
    Keywords: advertising; Bundling; Local News; media; newspapers; Television; two-sided markets
    JEL: D4 L11 L15 M37 N72
    Date: 2020–03
  45. By: Ana Tomás; Nuno Valério
    Abstract: This working paper aims to present an exhaustive list of the current means of payment issued by the Portuguese state or under its control since it exists as an effectively independent state in the 13th century and their main numismatic and monetary characteristics.
    Keywords: Portugal, coins, banknotes, scriptnotes JEL classification: E42 – o governo e o sistema monetário / government and the monetary system
    Date: 2020
  46. By: Voth, Hans-Joachim; Xu, Guo
    Abstract: Can severe penalties "encourage the others"? Using the famous case of the British Admiral John Byng, executed for his failure to recapture French-held Menorca in 1757, we examine the incentive effects of judicial punishments. Men related to Byng performed markedly better after his unexpected death. We generalize this result using information from 963 court martials. Battle performance of captains related to a courtmartialed and convicted officer improved sharply thereafter. The loss of influential connections was key for incentive effects â?? officers with other important connections improved little after Byng's execution or other severe sentences.
    Keywords: Labor incentives; Principal agent problems; punishment
    JEL: D91 J20 N33
    Date: 2020–03
  47. By: Sascha O. Becker; Francesco Cinnirella
    Abstract: We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy.
    Keywords: religion, segregation, literacy, fertility, Prussia
    JEL: J13 J15 I21 N33 Z12
    Date: 2020
  48. By: Chaney, Eric
    Abstract: This paper uses more than 30 million records from the union of the world's largest library collections to provide a novel proxy for historic economic activity. Changes in the number of authors affiliated with a city strongly correlate with existing population growth estimates. An empirical Bayes approach exploits this correlation to improve upon current data and provide new growth estimates where none exist. The paper concludes by using the new data to revisit urban growth during the rise of the Atlantic trade.
    Date: 2020–04
  49. By: Jonas Rama (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 UFR02 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR d'Économie - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); John Hall (PSU - Portland State University [Portland])
    Abstract: In The Romantic Economist (2009), Richard Bronk laments that Enlightenment thinking dominated Economics during its formation as a science. As counterpoint, the 'Romantic Movement' had much to offer but remained peripheral. Consequently Economics embraced the centrality of rationality and other Enlightenment precepts, leading to a 'socialphysics'. Meanwhile human characteristics such; as sentiments, imagination and creativity were eschewed. While Bronk fails to identify an in-the-flesh 'Romantic Economist', our inquiry seeks to establish that indeed Celso Furtado qualifies. Profoundly influenced by his sensitivities and attachment to place, Furtado relies upon an organic metaphor - o sertão nordestino - for insights into complex developmental processes.
    Abstract: Em The Romantic Economist (2009), Richard Bronk lamenta que o pensamento iluminista tenha dominado a economia durante sua formação como ciência. O "Movimen-to Romântico" seria um contraponto, mas foi mantido distante. A economia abraçou a cen-tralidade da racionalidade e preceitos iluministas, tornando-se uma "física-social". Desde então, as características humanas como sentimento, imaginação e criatividade são evitadas. Embora Bronk não identifique um economista "romântico" de carne e osso, nossa pesquisa busca estabelecer Celso Furtado como um. Profundamente influenciado por sua sensibili-dade e raízes, Furtado fez uso de uma metáfora orgânica-o sertão nordestino-em seu entendimento de complexos processos de desenvolvimento. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Brasil; Celso Furtado; Richard Bronk; movimento romântico; sertão.
    Keywords: Brazil,Celso Furtado,Richard Bronk,romantic movement
    Date: 2019
  50. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: In 1890, the Australian colonial politician, Henry Parkes, referred to the 'crimson thread of kinship' which he believed bound Australians to the United Kingdom. Within an increasingly multicultural Australia, situated within the Asia-Pacific region, such ties to the United Kingdom might be thought an anachronistic aspect of Australia's past. Yet in the 1990s and 2000s, two Australian Prime Ministers, who shared sixteen years of office between them, placed Australia's relationship to the United Kingdom at the centre of their respective political agendas, and at the core of their engagement with each other. This article seeks to investigate why this aspect of Australia's past took on such a contemporary importance during the Prime Ministerships of Paul Keating and John Howard, and focuses on the discursive strategies each Prime Minister adopted to render the 'crimson thread' such a salient feature of the Australian political landscape.
    Keywords: Paul Keating; John Howard; Australian politics; Australia; United Kingdom; multicultural Australia
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2019
  51. By: Dolphin, G.; Pollitt, M.
    Abstract: The recent history of the Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) of major western economies was marked by two fundamental changes: a transition toward liberalised electricity markets and a policy-led push to decarbonise the electricity generation portfolio. These changes not only affected the pace and nature of innovation activity in the sector but also altered the set of innovative actors. The present paper provides a methodology to identify these actors, which we apply to priority patents filed at the UK Intellectual Property Office over the period 1955-2016. The analysis also indicates that (i) the recent increase in innovation activity originates overwhelmingly from upstream Original Equipment Manufacturers and (ii) innovation activity in `green' electricity supply technologies slowed down in recent years.
    Keywords: innovation, electricity sector, machine learning
    JEL: L94 O31 O38
    Date: 2020–03–03
  52. By: Nicolas Brisset (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS)
    Keywords: historiographie, Quentin Skinner, acte de langage
    JEL: B00 B30
    Date: 2020–06
  53. By: Mitchener, Kris James; Richardson, Gary
    Abstract: The Great Depression is infamous for banking panics, which were a symptomatic of a phenomenon that scholars have labeled a contagion of fear. Using geocoded, microdata on bank distress, we develop metrics that illuminate the incidence of these events and how banks that remained in operation after panics responded. We show that between 1929-32 banking panics reduced lending by 13%, relative to its 1929 value, and the money multiplier and money supply by 36%. The banking panics, in other words, caused about 41% of the decline in bank lending and about nine-tenths of the decline in the money multiplier during the Great Depression.
    Keywords: banking panics; contagion; Great Depression; monetary deflation
    JEL: E44 G01 G21 N22
    Date: 2020–03
  54. By: Carlos Javier Barbosa Castañeda; Germán Raúl Chaparro
    Abstract: RESUMEN: Este artículo tiene como objetivo presentar un análisis económico de la obra El mercader de Venecia, a modo de ilustración de cómo la literatura y el cine pueden ser usados como recurso y pretexto para aprender economía. En particular, con este ejercicio analítico se pretende ilustrar el contexto histórico de la época mercantilista e introducir algunos temas de reflexión que posteriores escuelas de pensamiento económico examinarían; por ejemplo, la reflexión sobre el cobro de intereses, la importancia de la liquidez o la diversificación del portafolio de inversión. El análisis se realiza mediante una sinopsis de la obra y el examen del escenario; se complementa con comentarios o interpretaciones económicas de algunos pasajes representativos de la misma. Los resultados muestran, entre otros, la importancia de tener en cuenta los aspectos institucionales en el estudio de las rela-ciones económicas y la necesidad de especificar correctamente los contratos.
    Keywords: enseñanza de la economía; economía e historia; historia del pensamiento económico; econo-mía y literatura
    Date: 2018–07–02
  55. By: Howard, Michael (The University of Newcastle, School of Humanities and Social Science)
    Abstract: This Discussion Paper is part of a wider contemporary history project examining the growth and role of the commercial consultancy and contractor market within the public sector in Australia since the neo-liberal turn in the mid-1980s. The paper considers evidence as to whether the role of the big international accounting firms within the public sector was ‘neo-liberal’ in nature, either as a result of ideological and policy advocacy or technical facilitation of pre-set neo-liberal directions. The extent to which these firms (currently PwC, KPMG, EY and Deloitte) are seen as integrated or fragmented organisations has some bearing on this question. Hence, the first quarter of the paper sketches the historical broadening-out of the firms from accounting to a wider range of services, the debate over whether they have functioned as global corporations or networked partnerships, the rationalisation of the leading firms over the past three decades and the relatively sparse commentary from political scientists about the significance of the firms and other commercial consultants for public policy and administration in Australia. The second quarter of the paper points to the role of the firms in regard to two markers of a neo-liberal policy direction: privatisation of government business enterprises and particular tax policies and practices. Drawing on qualitative sources, it argues that while the firms made some contribution to the agenda-setting process in both areas, in tacitly (privatisation) or explicitly (taxation) signalling their broad policy preferences, they played a more fundamental role in detailed policy formulation and implementation – in easing the path of privatisation and corporate tax minimisation. The second half of the paper summarises original research by the author in regard to official public listings of consultancies and contracts at the national government level. This quantitative analysis yields important findings: that overall spending on the firms displayed a long-term, consistent and strong increase, both in absolute terms and relative to other consultancies and contractors; that this spending went far beyond accounting and auditing to many areas of management, though with financial analysis likely to underpin management inputs; and that a good deal of this work appeared to be oriented to program content and policy-relevant tasks. otwithstanding these findings, the paper emphasises that the extent to which this work confirmed to neo-liberal markers – such as support for private modes of provision and greater competition – cannot be readily confirmed, due to limitations in the official summary data. Such confirmation can only be achieved by qualitative case studies.The paper acknowledges that, as the firms have broadened their personnel and services over the three decades, much of the management and technology work of the firms in the public sector is unlikely to be intrinsically neo-liberal but potentially compatible with other philosophies of the public sector. Nonetheless, the growing presence of the firms within the public sector does erode notions of public sector capability and distinctive ethos. The paper concludes with a brief pointer to how the foregoing discussion, and further research, can be related to the academic literature on the differing roles played by commercial consultants in relation to clients, ranging from legitimation and facilitation of client preferences through to independent advice and learning.
    Keywords: Auditing; Accounting; Privatisation; Taxation; Consultants; Contracting-out; Policy; Management
    JEL: M40 L84 L33 H20 H26 D73
    Date: 2019
  56. By: Lydia Assouad (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Can leaders shape the evolution of social norms? I address this question by studying the role of Mustafa Kemal, or "Ataturk", the founder of modern Turkey, in spreading a new national identity. Using a generalized difference-in-differences design, which exploits time and geographic variation in Kemal's visits to cities, I test whether exposure to a charismatic leader affects citizens' take-up of the new national identity. I show that cities visited are more likely to embrace the common identity, as proxied by the adoption of first names in "Pure Turkish", the new language introduced by the state. I investigate the mechanisms and find that Kemal was more efficient in spreading a new identity compared to Ismet Inonu his second man, suggesting that he did not only have a pure informational effect. Using detailed information on the types of activities he held, I find that the effect is mostly driven by cities where he met with local elites, as opposed to visits where he met with the crowd. Results are not driven by places that already had nationalistic preferences and infrastructures. Overall, those results are consistent with the Weberian view that charismatic authority can play a role in legitimizing new social orders.
    Keywords: Leaders,Nation-Building,Culture,Propaganda
    Date: 2020–06
  57. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: Within contemporary liberal democracies, the relationship between liberalism and conservatism is a contested one. Some political parties, seeking to challenge a more egalitarian left-wing tradition, have sought to combine both within their political agenda. This article uses a debate between two professional politicians, George Brandis and John Howard, concerning the relationship between liberalism and conservatism, and the respective place of these political traditions within the Liberal Party of Australia, as the impetus for an investigation of both political traditions and the extent to which each are compatible as political philosophies. The discussion extends to an investigation of key liberal political philosophers - John Rawls, Ronald Dworkin, Friedrich von Hayek and James Buchanan. We shall see that these thinkers split on the extent to which liberalism is capable of incorporating conservative principles, thereby revealing the contested boundaries of the liberal tradition. As a result of this investigation, we shall see that the liberal tradition is in fact far more plural, and at times less individualist, than some of its most rigorous proponents proclaim.
    Keywords: political theory; political philosophy; liberalism; conservatism
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2019
  58. By: Tate, John William (The University of Newcastle, Newcastle Business School)
    Abstract: This paper seeks to challenge two primary views that have been advanced in the wake of September 11 concerning the relationship between Al Qaeda, or militant Islamic fundamentalism more generally, and modernity. These are the views of John Gray and Tariq Ali. John Gray identifies Al Qaeda and Islamic fundamentalism with modernity and even sees Al Qaeda as a product of modernity. Conversely, Tariq Ali, far from identifying Al Qaeda with modernity, identifies the United States' imperial project with fundamentalism and refers to the confrontation between this project and Islamic fundamentalism as a "clash of fundamentalisms". In seeking to challenge these views, the paper distinguishes fundamentalism from modernity in the most foundational terms and argues that the "logic" characteristic of each is intrinsically at odds.
    Keywords: fundamentalism; Al Qaeda; modernity; Islamic fundamentalism
    JEL: D74 F52
    Date: 2019
  59. By: Lafond, Francois; Greenwald, Diana; Farmer, J. Doyne
    Abstract: For many products, increases in cumulative production are associated with de- creasing unit costs. However, a serious problem of reverse causality (lower prices leading to increasing demand) makes it difficult to use this relationship for pol- icy. We study World War II, during which the demand for military products was largely exogenous, and the correlation between production, cumulative produc- tion and an exogenous time trend was limited. Our results indicate that decreases in cost can be attributed roughly equally to the growth of experience and to an exogenous time trend.
    Keywords: innovation policy; learning curve; natural experiment; World War II.
    JEL: N62 O31 O38
    Date: 2020–06–01
  60. By: Leticia Arroyo Abad (City University of New York); Noel Maurer (George Washington University); Blanca Sánchez-Alonso (Universidad San Pablo-CEU)
    Abstract: Millions of immigrants chose Argentina as the land of opportunity during the era of mass migration. Two immigrant groups, Italians and Spaniards, dominated the immigration flows. Despite higher literacy and their linguistic advantages, in Buenos Aires Spaniards fared worse when compared to Italians. By 1895, Italians enjoyed higher wages. What explains their paths in the city of Buenos Aires? We find that the Italian community capitalized upon pre-existing cultural traditions to establish denser and more effective networks to match their compatriots with economic opportunities. The more individualistic Spanish were unable to keep pace, despite their initial cultural, linguistic, and educational advantages.
    Keywords: migration, networks, Buenos Aires.
    JEL: N36 F22
    Date: 2020–06
  61. By: Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Zimmermann, Kaspar
    Abstract: This paper studies long-run trends in stock market capitalization and their drivers. New annual data for 17 advanced economies reveal a striking time series pattern: the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP was roughly constant between 1870 and 1980, tripled with a historically unprecedented "big bang" in the 1980s and 1990s, and remains high to this day. We use data on equity returns, yields and cashflows to explore the underlying forces behind this structural shift. We show that the big bang is driven by two factors: a secular decline in the equity discount rate from 1980 onwards, and an upward shift in cashflows paid by listed firms. Equity issuance and new listings make next to no contribution to the structural increase in market cap. We also show that high market capitalization forecasts low equity returns, low dividend growth and a high risk of a stock market crash. This suggests that the currently high valuations and capitalization are a sign of high, rather than low risk in equity markets.
    Keywords: equity valuations; return predictability; risk premiums; stock market capitalization; wealth-to-income ratios
    JEL: E44 G10 N20 O16
    Date: 2020–03
  62. By: Braggion, Fabio; Frehen, Rik; Jerphanion, Emiel
    Abstract: We study the relationship between credit, stock trading and asset prices. There is a wide array of channels through which credit provision can fuel stock prices. On one extreme, cheap credit reduces the cost of capital (discount rate) and boosts prices without trading or wealth transfers. On the other extreme, extrapolators use credit to ride a bubble and lose money. We construct a novel database containing every individual stock transaction for three major British companies during the 1720 South Sea Bubble. We link each trader's stock transactions to daily margin loan positions and subscriptions of new share issues. We find that margin loan holders are more likely to buy (sell) following high (low) returns. Loan holders also sign up to buy new shares of overvalued companies and incur large trading losses as a result of the bubble.
    Keywords: Bubble; Credit Provision; Investor Behavior; Margin Loans
    JEL: G01 G12 G21 N23
    Date: 2020–03
  63. By: Kose, Ayhan; Nagle, Peter; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Sugawara, Naotaka
    Abstract: Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread financial crises in these economies. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood that it ends again in widespread crises. It reports two main results. First, the rapid increase in debt has made emerging and developing economies more vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment, notwithstanding historically low global interest rates. Second, policy options are available to lower the likelihood of financial crises, and to help manage the adverse impacts of crises when they do occur. These include sound debt management, strong monetary and fiscal frameworks, and robust bank supervision and regulation. The post-crisis debt buildup has coincided with a period of subdued growth as well as the emergence of non-traditional creditors. As a result, policy priorities also need to ensure that debt is spent on productive purposes to improve growth prospects and that all debt-related transactions are transparently reported.
    Keywords: banking crises; Currency Crises; Debt crises; External Debt; financial crises; private debt; public debt
    JEL: E32 E62 F34 G01 H12 H63 N20
    Date: 2020–03

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.