nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒06‒22
forty papers chosen by

  1. Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family By Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
  2. Slow Real Wage Growth during the Industrial Revolution: Productivity Paradox or Pro-Rich Growth? By Crafts, Nicholas
  3. The Redistributive Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish Flu By Basco, Sergi; Domenech, Jordi; Rosés, Joan R.
  4. Death, demography and the denominator: New Influenza-18 mortality estimates for Ireland By Colvin, Christopher L.; McLaughlin, Eoin
  5. The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany By Richard Bluhm; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
  6. The Medium Run impact of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions. Evidence from the 1918 Inuenza in US cities By Guillaume Chapelle
  7. Measuring the Spanish Flu’s Economic Impact Using Historical Macroeconomic Statistics By gregory, paul
  8. Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933 By Kristian S. Blickle
  9. The Specificities of Relations between the State, Religious Communities and Civil Society in France By Edith Archambault
  10. Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016 By Alina K. Bartscher; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick; Ulrike I. Steins
  11. Text-mining IMF country reports - an original dataset By Mihalyi, David; Mate, Akos
  12. The Capital as Power Aproach: An Invited-then-Rejected Interview with Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan By Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan
  13. Long-term effects of the Paraguayan War (1864 - 1870): From male scarcity to intimate partner violence By Boggiano, Barbara
  14. Social media for cultural communication: A critical investigation of museums’ Instagram practices By Amanatidis, Dimitrios; Mylona, Ifigeneia; Mamalis, Spyridon; Kamenidou, Irene (Eirini)
  15. The Impact of Interwar Protection: Evidence from India By Vellore Arthi; Markus Lampe; Ashwin R Nair; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  16. Effects of lower ages of majority on oral contraceptive use: Evidence on the validity of The Power of the Pill By Cragun, Randy
  17. Debt and growth: Historical evidence By Breuer, Christian; Colombier, Carsten
  18. Leader Value Added: Assessing the Growth Contribution of Individual National Leaders By William Easterly; Steven Pennings
  19. Trade protectionism in Australia: its growth and dismantling By Anderson, Kym
  20. The Voice of Radio in the Battle for Equal Rights: Evidence from the U.S. South By Andrea Bernini
  21. Kim Jiyoung, Born 1982, and the Labour Market: Overeducation, Gender, Income and Life Satisfaction. Panel evidence from Korea. By Ahmed Lahsen, Amina; Piper, Alan T.; Thiele, Ida-Anna
  22. Monopolies Inflict Great Harm on Low- and Middle-Income Americans By James A. Schmitz
  23. Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered By Òscar Jordà; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor
  24. Automobiles and urban density By Koster, Hans R.A.; Nielsen, Victor Mayland; Ostermeijer, Francis; van Ommeren, Jos
  25. Evolving from a Rum State: Australia’s Alcohol Consumption By Kym Anderson
  26. Wine Regulations By Giulia Meloni; Kym Anderson; Koen Deconinck; Johan Swinnen
  27. What does the proof-of-concept (POC) really prove? A historical perspective and a cross-domain analytical study By Caroline Jobin; Pascal Le Masson; Sophie Hooge
  28. Financial conditions and the risks to economic growth in the United States since 1875 By Patrick J. Coe; Shaun P. Vahey
  29. More Choice for Men? Marriage Patterns after World War II in Italy By Battistin, Erich; Becker, Sascha O.; Nunziata, Luca
  30. Islam and Human Capital in Historical Spain By Cinnirella, Francesco; Naghavi, Alireza; Prarolo, Giovanni
  31. Oil wealth and property rights By De Soysa, Indra; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel
  32. Profiles and determinants of Nigeria's balance of payments: The current account component, 1950-88 By Joe U. Umo; Tayo Fakiyesi
  33. Economic phenomenology: fundamentals, principles and definition By Francesco Vigliarolo
  34. Appendix to "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  35. Inclusive Growth and Absolute Intragenerational Mobility in the United States, 1962-2014 By Berman, Yonatan
  36. The persisting legacies of imperial elites among contemporary top-ranked Vietnamese politicians By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  37. The Water of Life and Death: A Brief Economic History of Spirits By Lara Cockx; Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
  38. What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History? By Bengtsson, Erik; Rubolino, Rocco Enrico; Waldenström, Daniel
  39. Persistent legacy of the 1075–1919 Vietnamese imperial examinations in contemporary quantity and quality of education By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  40. The Global Disinflation Puzzle A Selective Review of the Theory and Evidence in an Historical Context By Emilio Ocampo

  1. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
    Abstract: We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves' ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any infuence of African cultural traditions.
    Keywords: Black family, slavery, sugar, migration, culture
    JEL: J12 J47 N30 O13 Z10
    Date: 2020–05
  2. By: Crafts, Nicholas
    Abstract: I examine the implications of technological change for productivity, real wages and factor shares during the industrial revolution using recently available data. This shows that real GDP per worker grew faster than real consumption earnings but labour's share of national income changed little as real product wages grew at a similar rate to labour productivity in the medium term. The period saw modest TFP growth which limited the growth both of real wages and of labour productivity. Economists looking for an historical example of rapid labour-saving technological progress having a seriously adverse impact on labour's share must look elsewhere.
    Keywords: Engels' pause; Factor shares; industrial revolution; labour productivity; real wages
    JEL: N13 O33 O47
    Date: 2020–05
  3. By: Basco, Sergi; Domenech, Jordi; Rosés, Joan R.
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variation in "excess deaths" and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related "excess deaths" on real wages is large, negative, and short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from null to a 15 per cent decline, concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases in mortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.
    Keywords: Pandemics; real wages; Returns to capital; Spanish flu
    JEL: E32 I00 N10 N30
    Date: 2020–05
  4. By: Colvin, Christopher L.; McLaughlin, Eoin
    Abstract: Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland's 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.
    Keywords: demographic economics,pandemics,age-adjusted mortality,Spanish flu,Ireland
    JEL: N34 I18 Q54
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Richard Bluhm; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
    Abstract: As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, several observers noticed that countries still administering an old vaccine against tuberculosis—the BCG vaccine—have had fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in the early stages of the outbreak. This paper uses a geographic regression discontinuity analysis to study whether and how COVID-19 prevalence changes discontinuously at the old border between West Germany and East Germany. The border used to separate two countries with very different vaccination policies during the Cold War era. We provide formal evidence that there is indeed a sizable discontinuity in COVID-19 cases at the border. However, we also find that the difference in novel coronavirus prevalence is uniform across age groups and show that this discontinuity disappears when commuter flows and demographics are accounted for. These findings are not in line with the BCG hypothesis. We then offer an alternative explanation for the East-West divide. We simulate a canonical SIR model of the epidemic in each German county, allowing infections to spread along commuting patterns. We find that in the simulated data, the number of cases also discontinuously declines as one crosses from west to east over the former border.
    Keywords: COVID-19; BCG vaccine; SIR model with commuting flows
    JEL: C21 I18 J60
    Date: 2020–05–01
  6. By: Guillaume Chapelle (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: This paper uses a difference in differences framework to estimate the causal impact on the mortality rate of Non Pharmaceutical In- terventions (NPIs) used to fight pandemics. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing introduce a trade-off. While they can lower the fatality rate during the peak of the pandemic, they also reduce the herd immunity and significantly increase the death rate in subsequent years. There is no significant association between the implementation of NPIs and cities' growth.
    JEL: I18 H51 H84
    Date: 2020
  7. By: gregory, paul
    Abstract: The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19 is the closest historical parallel to today’s Coronavirus pandemic. Its demographic aspects have been studied in detail, but the huge economic losses of Coronavirus have motivated researchers to pin down the economic costs of the Spanish Flu. The growing literature focuses on the US and uses city and state data to extract its costs with contradictory results. This paper uses historical statistics on GDP and industrial production to assess the economic costs of the Spanish Flu on the US, European, and UK economies. We find relatively small economic effects with the possible exception of the UK. Pandemics affect economic activity through human capital losses, voluntary changes in behavior to avoid infection, and state-decreed measures. The first two channels can produce economic effects similar to a substantial recession, but the third channel is required for the enormous economic losses we face today.
    Keywords: Spanish Flu, Angus Maddison, Kuznets, NPI
    JEL: N12 N13
    Date: 2020–05–04
  8. By: Kristian S. Blickle
    Abstract: We merge several historical data sets from Germany to show that influenza mortality in 1918-1920 is correlated with societal changes, as measured by municipal spending and city-level extremist voting, in the subsequent decade. First, influenza deaths are associated with lower per capita spending, especially on services consumed by the young. Second, influenza deaths are correlated with the share of votes received by extremist parties in 1932 and 1933. Our election results are robust to controlling for city spending, demographics, war-related population changes, city-level wages, and regional unemployment, and to instrumenting influenza mortality. We conjecture that our findings may be the consequence of long-term societal changes brought about by a pandemic.
    Keywords: influenza; pandemic; municipal spending; voter extremism; COVID-19
    JEL: H3 H4 I15 N14
    Date: 2020–05–01
  9. By: Edith Archambault (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: After a brief history of French civil society and its relationship with the State and the Church, highlighting the main similarities and differences with other European countries, the landscape of French civil society and religious communities nowadays is sketched out, while their relationships with the State are presented according to their components. Finally, the chapter focuses on the most conflictual part of French civil society, namely education, which has been the sources of a recurrent "school war" between the Church and the State. The conclusion notes that France is now a welfare partnership country as its Continental neighbours, even if relationships with religious communities are less developed.
    Keywords: religious communities,civil society,State/Church separation,laity,Catholic schools
    Date: 2020–05
  10. By: Alina K. Bartscher; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick; Ulrike I. Steins
    Abstract: This paper studies the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its relation to growing income inequality and financial fragility. We exploit a new household-level data set that covers the joint distributions of debt, income, and wealth in the United States over the past seven decades. The data show that increased borrowing by middle-class families with low income growth played a central role in rising indebtedness. Debt-to-income ratios have risen most dramatically for households between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the income distribution. While their income growth was low, middle-class families borrowed against the sizable housing wealth gains from rising home prices. Home equity borrowing accounts for about half of the increase in U.S. housing debt between the 1980s and 2007. The resulting debt increase made balance sheets more sensitive to income and house price fluctuations and turned the American middle class into the epicenter of growing financial fragility.
    Keywords: household portfolios; inequality; financial fragility; household debt
    JEL: D14 D31 E21 E44
    Date: 2020–05–01
  11. By: Mihalyi, David; Mate, Akos
    Abstract: This article introduces an original panel dataset based on the text of country reports by the International Monetary Fund. It consists of a total of 5561 Article IV consultation and program review documents, published between 2004 and 2018 on 201 countries. The text of these reports provide indications of the perceived policy weaknesses, economic risks, ongoing reforms and implemented or neglected policy advice. Thus the content of IMF reports are widely used in the economics, political science and IR literature. To our knowledge this is the first comprehensive dataset that aggregates these country reports. The paper gives a detailed account on the data acquisition and management process. To demonstrate and validate the dataset’s application for research we present three validation exercises. We find that Article IV reports can indicate incoming institutional reforms, show changes in IMF policy advice overtime and identify potential gains from recently discovered natural resources in certain cases. Taken together, this paper contributes an original dataset of IMF country reports and demonstrates how it can be a useful foundation for further research into the role of international financial institutions.
    Keywords: economic policy, IMF, text analysis, original dataset
    JEL: E60 F53
    Date: 2019–08–02
  12. By: Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan
    Abstract: This interview was commissioned in October 2019 for a special issue on ‘Accumulation and Politics: Approaches and Concepts’ to be published by the Revue de la régulation. We submitted the text in March 2020, only to learn two months later that it won’t be published. The problem, we were informed, wasn’t the content, which everyone agreed was ‘highly interesting and stimulating’. It was the format. To begin with, the text was suddenly deemed ‘too long’. Although the length was agreed on beforehand, the special-issue editors – or maybe it was their bosses on the Editorial Board – now insisted that we cut it by no less than two-thirds. They also instructed us to make our answers more ‘interview-like’ and ‘personal’. Finally and perhaps most tellingly, they demanded that we change our ‘tone’, which they found ‘unfair’ and ‘one-sided’. Translation: we should take a hike. This encounter with two-minded editors wasn’t our first. The added epilogue at the end of this interview, titled ‘Manuscripts Don’t Burn’, sketches our history with Jekyll & Hyde editors who have often used ‘length’ and ‘tone’ to reject articles they’ve invited but can’t stomach. But first, the original interview, in full.
    Keywords: capital as power,liberalism,marxism,neoclassical economics,political economy
    JEL: P16 B14 E13 B E11 B52 B25 B
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Boggiano, Barbara
    Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term effects of the Paraguayan War (1864-1870) on intimate partner violence. The identification of these causal effects relies on a novel historical dataset from which I exploit the distance from municipalities to military camps during the war. Over 130 years later, the likelihood of intimate partner violence is still 5.54 percent higher than average in municipalities that were more heavily affected by the war. The loss of life among men led to female-biased sex ratios and defined Paraguay as the 'country of women'. However, I show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, female-biased sex ratios are not the only driver of the long-term effects of the war. Instead, the main transmission channel is the relative status of females within the household. Male scarcity leads to atypical status inconsistencies within the household that do not respect traditional gender roles and induces intimate partner violence that is transmitted across generations.
    Keywords: intimate partner violence,long-term effects,gender norms,male scarcity
    JEL: I15 N36 O15 Z10
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Amanatidis, Dimitrios; Mylona, Ifigeneia; Mamalis, Spyridon; Kamenidou, Irene (Eirini)
    Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate the use of Instagram by museums in the Greek cultural scene. Specifically, the study focuses on examining the use of Instagram by museum communication professionals and aims at carrying out a twofold investigation: Firstly, if and how the Instagram is used to reach out to their visitors and secondly, the public response to this type of communication. Methods: A list of all archaeological museums in Greece was obtained and related Instagram accounts were retrieved. The dataset structure was enhanced by eleven variables, which were measured and visualized by a descriptive statistics analysis. Inter-variable correlations, normality and equality tests were also performed. Moreover, a linear predictive model for the number of museum tags was investigated. Results: Only one museum in Greece maintains an Instagram account. Visitors usually tag museum exhibits or people and exhibits on the photographs they upload on their personal accounts. T-tests and Mann-Whitney U tests revealed equal distributions for all variables between central and peripheral museums. Implications: Museum officials have not seized the opportunity offered by social media and especially Instagram today. Their importance seems to be underestimated. With respect to the linear model derived, results suggest that more features should be surveyed; this could be the subject of future research studies.
    Keywords: social media, communication, digital marketing, Instagram, multiple regression
    JEL: D83 L82 N7
    Date: 2020–05–30
  15. By: Vellore Arthi; Markus Lampe; Ashwin R Nair; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: Research on the quantitative impact of interwar protection on trade flows remains scarce, and much of it has concluded that the impact was surprisingly small. In this paper we ask: Did Indian interwar protection hurt UK manufacturers, by raising tariffs on manufactured imports? Or did it favour UK interests, by discriminating against “foreign” (i.e. non- British) producers? We answer this question by quantifying the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade policies and imports for 114 commodity categories coming from 42 countries. Indian trade elasticities were generally larger than those in the United Kingdom at the same time. We find that even though Indian protection lowered total imports, it substantially boosted imports from the UK. Trade policy had a big impact on trade flows.
    JEL: F13 F14 N75
    Date: 2020–05
  16. By: Cragun, Randy
    Abstract: With the Australian Family Project and 1970 National Fertility Survey, this paper uses between-states variation in the timing of youth consent laws in Australia and the US in the 1960s and 1970s to show that women in Australia who had never used the pill were 2 percentage points more likely to start at age 19 under an age of majority of 18 instead of 21 (from a base rate around 2%). Women living under liberalized youth consent and legal access to the pill in the US were 10 percentage points more likely to start the pill at age 20.
    Keywords: the pill; contraception; power of the pill; age of majority; early legal access
    JEL: I18 J13 J31
    Date: 2019–10–24
  17. By: Breuer, Christian; Colombier, Carsten
    Abstract: In this present paper, we examine the relationship between public debt and economic growth in a large historical panel dataset of 17 OECD economics over the period from 1870 to 2016. In contrast, the relevant literature focuses on the postWW-II period. Several empirical studies provide evidence in support of the 'conventional view' that public debt is adversely associated with economic growth. We show that the relationship between government debt and per-capita GDP growth is neither statistically significant and robust nor unambiguous regarding the sign. While our baseline regressions support the 'conventional view', particularly in the aftermath of World War II, these results are not robust to alternative specifications. This holds for a linear as well as a non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth. Our outcome suggests that politicians should exercise great caution in using empirical studies on the debt-growth nexus as a guidance for fiscal policy and that further in-depth analyses are needed.
    Keywords: Government debt,economic growth,historical dataset,panel regressions,robustness analysis,Staatsschulden,Wirtschaftswachstum,historischer Datensatz,Panelregressionen,Sensitivitätsanalyse
    JEL: E62 H63 C23
    Date: 2020
  18. By: William Easterly; Steven Pennings
    Abstract: Previous literature suggests that leaders matter for growth in general. This paper asks which leaders matter and develops a methodology to estimate the growth contribution of individual leaders and calculate its precision. The findings show that few leaders have statistically significant contributions; it is difficult to know who is good for growth and who is not. The paper also finds that the most intuitive estimate of a leader’s contribution—the average growth rate during tenure—is largely useless for measuring his or her true contribution. Consequently, many leaders with statistically significant growth effects are surprises. Moreover, leaders in non-democratic countries are no more likely to be statistically significant than leaders in democratic ones.
    JEL: N10 O11 O43 O57
    Date: 2020–05
  19. By: Anderson, Kym
    Abstract: Protection from import competition was a defining feature of the birth of the Australian federation in 1901. For the next 70 years, the extent of protection grew, and broadened from mainly tariffs to also involving import licencing after World War II. There was a one-off 25% across-the-board cut in tariffs in 1973 and some dismantling of agricultural subsidies, but that was followed by the re-imposition of import quotas for the most-protected manufactured goods. Then a new reformist government began, in the mid-1980s, a long process of dismantling all protection as part of an overall economic reform program that also involved de-regulation, privatization and moving to a flexible exchange rate. The rewards included three decades of faster economic growth and an unprecedented rise in Australians' living standards. This paper provides a history of economic thought on the pros and cons of protectionism for the small, distant, natural resource-rich Australian economy and a survey of the literature on the extent, effects and political economy reasons behind the growth of Australian protection and its eventual dismantling.
    Keywords: Import Restrictions; Political economy of trade policy; price-distorting policies; sectoral assistance; tariffs
    Date: 2020–05
  20. By: Andrea Bernini
    Abstract: Although the 1960s race riots have gone down in history as America’s most violent and destructive ethnic civil disturbances, a single common factor able to explain their insurgence is yet to be found. Using a novel data set on the universe of radio stations airing black-appeal programming, the effect of media on riots is found to be sizable and statistically signiï¬ cant. A marginal increase in the signal reception from these stations is estimated to lead to a 7% and 15% rise in the mean levels of the likelihood and intensity of riots, respectively. Several mechanisms behind this result are considered, with the quantity, quality, and the length of exposure to radio programming all being decisive factors.
    Keywords: Minority Rights, Media, Conflict, Enfranchisement
    JEL: J15 N92 L82 D74
    Date: 2020–06–12
  21. By: Ahmed Lahsen, Amina; Piper, Alan T.; Thiele, Ida-Anna
    Abstract: One reason often put forward for South Korea’s rapid economic growth has been the rising level of educational attainment of its workforce. Correspondingly, the proportion of Koreans who complete tertiary education has also rapidly increased (and is also considerably higher than the OECD average). Such increases raise the possibility of overeducation if the amount of jobs which require such education do not increase at a similar pace. Among the consequences of overeducation are reduced life satisfaction and underutilised human capital. Given that Korean females are better educated than males, and they also face more discrimination in the labour market, the consequences of overeducation are likely to differ by gender. Using Korean panel data and both a subjective and objective measure of overeducation, the results are consistent with females having lower aspirations despite their high levels of education, and indicate that a more female friendly labour market could address the country’s currently underutilised human capital, for the benefit of the females themselves, as well as males, and the Korean economy.
    Keywords: Overeducation; gender; gender inequality; income; life satisfaction; Korea.
    JEL: I26 I31 J0 N35
    Date: 2020–05
  22. By: James A. Schmitz
    Abstract: Today, monopolies inflict great harm on low- and middle-income Americans. One particularly pernicious way they harm them is by sabotaging low-cost products that are substitutes for the monopoly products. I'll argue that the U.S. housing crisis, legal crisis, and oral health crisis facing the low- and middle-income Americans are, in large part, the result of monopolies destroying low-cost alternatives in these industries that the poor would purchase. These results would not surprise those studying monopolies in the first half of the 20th century. During this period extensive evidence was developed showing monopolies engaging in these same activities and many others that harmed the poor. Models of monopoly were constructed by giants in economics and law, such as Henry Simons and Thurman Arnold, to explain these impacts of monopoly. These models are of sabotaging monopolies. Unfortunately, in the 1950s, the economics profession turned its back on this evidence, these models and these giants. It embraced the Cournot model of monopoly, that found in textbooks today. In this model the monopolist chooses its price, nothing more. Gone are the decisions on whether to sabotage substitutes or to employ any of the other weapons at the disposal of sabotaging monopolies. I'll call this Cournot monopoly the toothless monopoly. Using this model, the economics profession has concluded that the costs of monopoly are small. But the toothless monopoly model is ill-equipped to study the "costs of monopoly." By relying on it, the economics profession has made major errors in its study of monopoly.
    Keywords: Inequality; Monopoly; Cournot; Competition; Harberger; Sabotage
    JEL: K0 D22 L12 K21 D42 L0
    Date: 2020–05–15
  23. By: Òscar Jordà; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor
    Abstract: Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini “disasters.” By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show empirically that this is true for all advanced economies since 1870. Focusing on the peacetime sample, we develop a tractable local projection framework to estimate consumption growth paths for normal and financial-crisis recessions. Using random coefficient local projections we get an easy and transparent mapping from the estimates to the calibrated simulation model. Simulations show that substantial welfare costs arise not just from the large rare disasters, but also from the smaller but more frequent mini-disasters in every cycle. In postwar America, households would sacrifice more than 10 percent of consumption to avoid such cyclical fluctuations.
    Keywords: fluctuations; asymmetry; local projections; random coefficients; macroprudential policy
    JEL: E13 E21 E22 E32
    Date: 2020–05–01
  24. By: Koster, Hans R.A.; Nielsen, Victor Mayland; Ostermeijer, Francis; van Ommeren, Jos
    Abstract: How has the rise of the automobile influenced urban areas over the past century? In this paper we investigate the long-run impact of car ownership on urban population density, based on a sample of 232 city observations in 57 countries. Using the presence of a car manufacturer in 1920 as a source of exogenous variation, our IV estimates indicate that car ownership substantially reduces density. A one standard deviation increase in car ownership rates causes a reduction in population density of around 40%. For employment density we find almost identical results. This result has important implications for vehicle taxation, car ownership growth in developing countries, and new transport technologies such as automated vehicles.
    Keywords: Car ownership; urban density; vehicle costs
    JEL: R12 R40
    Date: 2020–05
  25. By: Kym Anderson (Wine Economics Research Centre, School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia, and Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia)
    Abstract: Europeans settlers in the Australian colonies had a reputation of being heavy drinkers. Rum dominated during the first few decades, followed by beer. It took until the 1970s before Australia’s annual per capita consumption of wine exceeded 10 litres, and even then wine represented only one-fifth of national alcohol consumption. But over the next two decades per capita wine consumption nearly trebled and beer consumption shrunk – the opposite of what happened to global alcohol consumption shares. This paper draws on newly compiled datasets to help explain why it took so long for a consumer interest in wine to emerge in Australia.
    Keywords: Alcohol beverage consumption mix; Beverage consumption intensity index; Wine globalization
    JEL: D12 L66 N10
    Date: 2018–11
  26. By: Giulia Meloni (LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance & Department of Economics, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium); Kym Anderson (Wine Economics Research Centre, School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia, and Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia); Koen Deconinck (LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance & Department of Economics, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium); Johan Swinnen (LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance & Department of Economics, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview and analysis of wine regulations in an international and historical comparative perspective. Wine is an excellent sector to study government interventions, because for centuries wine markets have been subject to many government regulations that differ greatly within and between countries. Wine consumption taxes, for example, range from zero in some countries to more than 100% in others. The EU has extensive quantity and quality regulations for wine, while other major producers such as Australia and the United States are much less regulated. After a general overview of current regulations and historical evolutions, we analyze three key wine regulations in more detail: consumption taxes, planting rights and geographical indications. Most wine regulations reveal a tension between the public interest and vested private interests.
    Keywords: Consumption taxes, Planting rights, Geographic indications
    JEL: L51 L66 Q15
    Date: 2019–09
  27. By: Caroline Jobin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSL - PSL Research University - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSL - PSL Research University - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Sophie Hooge (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSL - PSL Research University - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris)
    Abstract: Even though proof-of-concept (POC) has become a common practice of organizations in decision-making, and internal and external coordination processes, the literature on strategic management has so far little taken on the subject. In this paper, we looked at the following questions: Where does the concept of ‘proof-of-concept' come from and how has it evolved over time? How does ‘proof-of-concept' relate to a peculiar category of proof? To answer these questions, we first conducted a historical perspective of the genesis of the concept, namely in the U.S. aerospace and aeronautical ecosystem. Then, we conducted an analytical study of the transfer of the notion in the ecosystems of biomedical, public research, new product development / innovation / entrepreneurship and finally information technologies. This paper showed that the term, which was born in the 1960s, gradually met with success in contexts where new actors had to be brought into the previously highly integrated design value chain, and this often upstream. In this sense, POC, as proof of validation and exploration, appears to be a particularly useful tool for ‘buyers' and ‘sellers' in processes with an exploratory dimension.
    Abstract: En dépit du fait que la preuve de concept ou POC soit devenue une pratique courante des organisations dans les processus de prise de décision et de coordination internes et externes, la littérature en management stratégique s'est jusqu'à présent peu emparée du sujet. Dans ce papier, nous nous sommes intéressés aux questions suivantes : D'où vient la notion de POC et comment a-t-elle évoluée au fil du temps ? En quoi le POC constitue une catégorie particulière de preuve ? Pour répondre à ces questions, nous avons d'abord réalisé une étude historique de la genèse du concept, à savoir dans l'écosystème aérospatial et aéronautique américain. Puis, nous avons mené une étude analytique du transfert de la notion dans les écosystèmes du biomédical, de la recherche publique, du développement de nouveaux produits / de l'innovation / de entrepreneuriat et enfin des technologies de l'information. Ce papier a permis de montrer que le terme, qui est né dans les années 1960, a progressivement rencontré un succès dans les contextes où il a fallu faire entrer de nouveaux acteurs dans la chaîne de valeur de la conception qui était jusqu'alors très intégrée, et ce souvent par l'amont. En ce sens, le POC, en tant preuve de validation et d'exploration, semble être un outil particulièrement utile aux « acheteurs » et aux « vendeurs » dans des processus avec une dimension exploratoire.
    Keywords: POC,TRL,Design,Validation,Exploration,Conception
    Date: 2020–06–03
  28. By: Patrick J. Coe; Shaun P. Vahey
    Abstract: We explore the historical relationship between financial conditions and real economic growth for quarterly U.S. data from 1875 to 2017 with a flexible empirical copula modelling methodology. We compare specifications with both linear and non-linear dependence, and with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian marginal distributions. Our results indicate strong statistical support for models that are both non-Gaussian and nonlinear for our historical data, with considerable heterogeneity across sub-samples. We demonstrate that ignoring the contribution of financial conditions typically understates the conditional downside risks to economic growth in crises. For example, accounting for financial conditions more than doubles the probability of negative growth in the year following the 1929 stock market crash.
    Keywords: Probabilities of economic events, Vulnerable growth, Growth at risk, Great Depression
    JEL: C14 C32 C53 E37 E44 N10 N20
    Date: 2020–04
  29. By: Battistin, Erich; Becker, Sascha O.; Nunziata, Luca
    Abstract: We investigate how changes in the sex ratio induced by World War II affected the bargaining patterns of Italian men in the marriage market after the war. Marriage data from the first wave of the Italian Household Longitudinal Survey (1997) are matched with newly digitized information on war casualties coming from Italian National Bureau of Statistics. We find that men in post-war marriages were better off in terms of their spouse's education, this gain amounting to about half a year of education. By considering heterogeneity across provinces, we find that the effects were more pronounced in more rural provinces, mountainous provinces, and those with a higher share of population employed in agriculture. This suggests that here, the shock provided for a more fundamental change in marriage patterns compared to urban, lower-lying, and less agricultural provinces where marriage markets might have been more flexible to begin with.
    Keywords: education; Marriage; Sex ratio; World War II
    JEL: J12 N34
    Date: 2020–05
  30. By: Cinnirella, Francesco; Naghavi, Alireza; Prarolo, Giovanni
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of Muslim rule on human capital development. Using a unique novel dataset containing yearly data on Muslim presence in the period 711-1492 and literacy rate in 1900 for about 7500 municipalities in Spain, we estimate the local impact of the length of Muslim rule in the medieval period on literacy rate. Our findings reveal an extremely robust negative relationship between length of Muslim rule and levels of human capital. This result is robust to the inclusion of other possible confounding factors such as the Reconquista and the Inquisition. We argue that the characteristics of Islamic law discouraged the formation of a strong merchant class and subsequently impeded the development of forms of local self-government. This translated into lower levels of human capital for regions longer under Muslim rule. Indeed, panel estimates on a sample of cities provide evidence that locations under Muslim domination missed out on the critical junctures of institutional changes which led to a stagnation in the accumulation of human capital.
    Keywords: education; Literacy; Merchant class; Muslim rule; Self-government; Spain
    JEL: H75 I25 N33 O10 O30 Z12
    Date: 2020–04
  31. By: De Soysa, Indra; Krieger, Tim; Meierrieks, Daniel
    Abstract: We empirically examine the impact of oil wealth on property rights protection for a sample of 156 countries between 1960 and 2014. We find that higher levels of oil wealth result in weaker private property rights. This result is robust to different instrumental-variable approaches and operationalizations of oil wealth and economic institutions. We argue that oil wealth creates an oil elite that wields disproportionate economic and political power over society. The elite uses this power to buy support for weak property rights from their supporters (the selectorate), while also punishing the opposition (i.e., the non-selectorate). Indeed, we also provide evidence that oil wealth leads to more clientelistic policies (benefitting the selectorate) but also more punitive measures (e.g., in the form of exclusion from state jobs) likely administered to the non-selectorate. We argue that the elite favors weak property rights because this blocks potential economic challengers, allowing for the consolidation and perpetuation of the economic and political status quo.
    Keywords: oil wealth,economic institutions,property rights,resource curse,selectorate theory
    Date: 2020
  32. By: Joe U. Umo; Tayo Fakiyesi (University of Lagos)
  33. By: Francesco Vigliarolo (Catholic University of La Plata)
    Abstract: One of the tensions in economics, that has spanned the last few centuries, has undoubtedly been the dichotomy between dialectical materialism and idealism, which ended up laying the foundations between structure and superstructure, taking up the important philosophical questions faced in past centuries. This tension also ended up entering the economic visions between determinists/liberalists and interventionists, both engulfed by positivism and mathematical reason that has left out any transcendental dimension. With these assumptions, this article pretends to present the fundamentals of economic phenomenology, a branch of phenomenology that studies economics in the formation of its primary ideas in response to the economic positivism that left any transcendental dimension and questions out of the economics science, such as: what kind of society do we want? In this context, the principles of economic phenomenology take form from the relationship between subject (intention) and materiality, noesis and noema (Noesis is the intention, the subjective dimension. Noema, is the object thought in subjective terms), which always presupposes a concept, an idea that can be interpreted in everyday life. In this direction, it also proposes the presuppositions, the method, some concepts and theories of which economic phenomenology is composed. Among these, the concepts of ontological reason, Peoples rights demand, the meso-economy and the theory of wages in order to interpret the vision of life that underlies economic systems.
    Keywords: economics,positivism,phenomenology,theory,ontology
    Date: 2020–03–30
  34. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon, LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This data appendix provides methodological details and complete data series for our paper "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (DINA)". It is supplemented by a set of data files and computer codes (
    Keywords: capital income,France,labor income,DINA,Distributional National Accounts,inequality,United States,World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2020–05–30
  35. By: Berman, Yonatan
    Abstract: This paper combines historical cross-sectional and longitudinal income and wealth data in the United States to present the evolution of absolute intragenerational mobility from the 1960s onward. That is, the fraction of families with higher income or wealth over a given period. We find that the rates of absolute mobility over periods of two to four years are largely confined within 45%-55%. This occurs over all the phases of the business cycle. Absolute mobility is higher for lower percentiles, also during periods of increasing inequality. These results stem from the importance of the changes in the composition of income and wealth percentiles even over short time periods. We offer a simplified model to mathematically describe these findings.
    Keywords: Mobility, inequality, copula modeling
    JEL: C2 D3 E2 H0 J6
    Date: 2018–10–18
  36. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This study investigated how the legacies of Vietnamese elites continue to affect top-ranked politicians in Vietnam. We therefore compared a list of elites who passed the imperial examination (1075–1919) at the national level with a list of currently active Vietnamese topranked politicians (1930–2020) by matching their home districts. We used the average distance from each district to imperial test venues as instrumental variables for estimating possible connections at the district level. Results showed strong and persistent imperial legacies based on these home districts. This suggests the existence of persistent transmissions via informal institutions and channels of home favoritism.
    Keywords: legacy, elite, imperial elite, politician, Vietnam, N35, N45, P26, J62
    Date: 2020–06
  37. By: Lara Cockx (Department of Economics, Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan); Giulia Meloni (LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance & Department of Economics, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium); Johan Swinnen (LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance & Department of Economics, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium)
    Abstract: Spirits represent around 50% of global alcohol consumption. This sector is much less studied than other alcohol beverages such as wine or beer. This paper reviews the economic history of spirits and analyses recent trends in the spirits markets. The technology to produce spirits is more complex than for wine or beer. Distillation was known in ancient Chinese, Indian, Greek and Egyptian societies, but it took innovations by the Arabs to distil alcohol. Initially this alcohol was used for medicinal purposes. Only in the middle ages did spirits become a widespread drink and did commercial production and markets. The Industrial Revolution created a large consumer market and reduced the cost of spirits, contributing to excess consumption and alcoholism. Governments have intervened extensively in spirits markets to reduce excessive consumption and to raise taxes. There have been significant changes in spirits consumption and trade over time. Over the past 50 years, the share of spirits in global alcohol consumption increased from around 30% to around 50%. In the past decades, there was strong growth in emerging markets, including in China and India. The spirits industry has concentrated, but less so than e.g. the brewery industry. Recent developments in the spirits industry include premiumization, the growth of craft spirits and the introduction of terroir for spirits.
    Keywords: Spirits; distillation technology; globalization and convergence of alcohol preferences; alcohol and health; alcohol regulations; craft and industry concentration
    Date: 2019–11
  38. By: Bengtsson, Erik; Rubolino, Rocco Enrico; Waldenström, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of the labor-capital split in national income for 20 countries since the late 1800s. Our main identification strategy focuses on unique historical quasi-experimental events: i) the introduction of universal suffrage, ii) close election wins of left-wing governments, iii) decolonization, iv) unionization shocks, and v) wars. We also run instrumented panel regressions. Our findings show that the capital share decreased in response to radical institutional and political shifts, such as the introduction of universal suffrage in the early 1900s, the undoing of colonialism and the implementation of redistributive policies during the post-war period. By contrast, the capital share increased following the erosion of trade unionism since the 1980s. Wars, despite destroying the capital stock, generated windfall profits that increased the capital share.
    Keywords: economic history; event study; Factor shares; inequality; institutions
    JEL: D33 E02 N00
    Date: 2020–05
  39. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: We investigated the impact of individuals who passed the Vietnamese imperial examinations (1075–1919) on the present-day quantity and quality of education in their home districts. We layered the 2009 Population and Housing Census and the 2009 National Entrance Exams to University (NEEU) test scores on the geographical distribution of imperial test takers' home districts. We constructed a novel instrumental variable representing the average distance between the examinees' home districts and the corresponding imperial examination venues.We found a persistent legacy in the average years of schooling, literacy rate, school attendance rate, NEEU test scores, and primary school dropout rate.
    Keywords: Education, Human Capital, Imperial Examination, Historical Legacy, Vietnam, I25, N35, O15
    Date: 2020–06
  40. By: Emilio Ocampo
    Abstract: In the last three decades average inflation rates have declined around the world. Since 1995 the number of countries with inflation rates below 10% a year increased from 98 (54% of the total) to an average of 178 in 2015-2019 (90% of the total). In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), inflation in the US has averaged 1.8% a year despite an unprecedented monetary expansion, and more recently, a drop in the unemployment rate to historical lows. In the last decades, two of modern macroeconomic theory’s most important relationships appear to have broken down: the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) and the Phillips Curve (PC). This paper i) presents evidence that confirms the global disinflationary trend of the last three decades, ii) identifies previous historical episodes during which the QTM appeared to break down in the US and the UK and the theoretical reassessment that it provoked, iii) examines experts’ reaction to the apparent current breakdown of the QTM and the PC and the alternative paradigms that have emerged, and iv) reviews the alternative hypotheses that have been proposed to explain global disinflation, focusing particularly on the effects of technological innovation and globalization.
    Date: 2020–06

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.