nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒06‒15
33 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Northumbria University

  1. Death, Demography and the Denominator: New Influenza-18 Mortality Estimates for Ireland By Colvin, Christopher L.; McLaughlin, Eoin
  2. Success through failure? Four Centuries of Searching for Danish Coal By Kristin Ranestad; Paul Richard Sharp
  3. The Fruits of El Dorado: The Global Impact of American Precious Metals By Leticia Arroyo Abad; Nuno Palma
  4. Standards of Living and Skill Premia in Eighteenth Century Denmark: What can we learn from a large microlevel wage database? By Peter Sandholt Jensen; Cristina Victoria Radu; Paul Sharp
  5. Growth, war, and pandemics: Europe in the very long-run By Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
  6. What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History? By Bengtsson, Erik; Rubolino, Enrico; Waldenström, Daniel
  7. The "merchantable gratuitousness" platforms and the Free Digital Labor controversy: a new form of exploitation? By Carlo Vercellone
  8. Economia e ecologia nos montados de sobro ibericos: o uso do solo na segunda metade do seculo XIX By Carlos Manuel Faísca
  9. Curriculum Vitae and Publication Record By Jorge Braga de Macedo
  10. The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in G-7 countries: evidence from time-varying parameters with a long history By Mehmet Akif, Destek; Muhammad, Shahbaz; Ilyas, Okumus; Shawkat, Hammoudeh; Avik, Sinha
  11. Why Does the U.S. Have the Best Research Universities? Incentives, Resources, and Virtuous Circles By MacLeod, W. Bentley; Urquiola, Miguel
  12. Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy By Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Dalida Kadyrzhanova; Camelia Minoiu; Lev Ratnovski
  13. Global financial cycles since 1880 By Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H
  14. Wissenschaftstheoretische Aspekte der Oekonomik: Ueberblick und Positionsbestimmung By Fritz Helmedag
  15. Winners and Losers from Enclosure: Evidence from Danish Land Inequality 1682-1895 By Nina Boberg-Fazlic; Markus Lampe; Pablo Martinelli Lasheras; Paul Sharp
  16. Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family By Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
  17. Engineers and the Knowledge Gap between Andean and Nordic Countries, 1850-1939 By JosŽ Peres-Caj’as; Kristin Ranestad
  18. Unequal societies in usual times, unjust societies in pandemic ones By Giovanni Dosi; Lucrezia Fanti; Maria Enrica Virgillito
  19. Country of Women? Repercussions of the Triple Alliance War in Paraguay By Alix-Garcia, Jennifer; Schechter, Laura; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe; Zhu, Jessica
  20. Islam and the State: Religious Education in the Age of Mass Schooling By Bazzi, Samuel; Hilmy, Masyhur; Marx, Benjamin
  21. Innovation Activities in Prewar Japan: Patent Bibliographic Information Database (Japanese) By INOUE Hiroyasu; OKAZAKI Tetsuji; SAITO Yukiko; NAKAJIMA Kentaro
  22. When Coercive Economies Fail: The Political Economy of the US South After the Boll Weevil By James J. Feigenbaum; Soumyajit Mazumder; Cory B. Smith
  23. Ad maiorem Dei gloriam. Numeracy levels in the Guarani Jesuit missions By Èric Gómez-i-Aznar
  24. « Peut-on parler d’une “pensée” managériale issue du réseau des Grands Corps d’État (Inspection des Finances, Corps des Mines), à travers leur vision modernisatrice des années 1960-1970 ? » By Alexandre Moatti
  25. Have unequal treaties fostered domestic market integration in Late Imperial China ? By Jean-Louis Combes; Mary-Françoise Renard; Shuo Shi
  26. The Winners and Losers of Immigration: Evidence from Linked Historical Data By Joseph Price; Christian vom Lehn; Riley Wilson
  27. Immigration, Innovation, and Growth By Burchardi, Konrad B.; Chaney, Thomas; Hassan, Tarek Alexander; Tarquinio, Lisa; Terry, Stephen
  28. Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018 By Stuart, Rebecca
  29. The Fatal Conceit: Swedish Education after Nazism By Heller Sahlgren, Gabriel; Wennström, Johan
  30. Arresting the Sword of Damocles: Dating the Transition to the Post-Malthusian Era in Denmark By Peter Sandholt Jensen; Maja Uhre Pedersen; Cristina Victoria Radu; Paul Richard Sharp
  31. Capital Market Integration with Multiple Convergence Clubs: The Case of Prewar Japan By Tetsuji OKAZAKI; Koji SAKAI
  32. Impacts of the Industrial Revolution on Wages and Skills of Workers: The Silk Weaving Industry in Early Twentieth-Century Japan By Tetsuji OKAZAKI
  33. Prussia Disaggregated: The Demography of its Universe of Localities in 1871 By Becker, Sascha O.; Cinnirella, Francesco

  1. By: Colvin, Christopher L.; McLaughlin, Eoin
    Abstract: Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland's 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.
    Keywords: demographic economics,pandemics,age-adjusted mortality,Spanish flu,Ireland
    JEL: N34 I18 Q54
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Kristin Ranestad (Lund University); Paul Richard Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: Natural resources, especially energy resources, are often considered vital to the process of economic development, with the availability of coal considered central for the nineteenth century. Clearly, however, although coal might have spurred economic development, development might also have spurred the discovery and use of coal. To shed light on this, we suggest that the case of resource poor Denmark, which spent centuries looking for coal, is illuminating. Specifically, we emphasize that the process of looking for coal and the creation of a natural resource industry in itself is important beyond the obvious dichotomy of haves and have-nots. We seek to understand this process and find that prices proved an important stimulus to coal surveys.
    Keywords: Coal, Denmark, natural resources, mining
    JEL: N55
    Date: 2020–05
  3. By: Leticia Arroyo Abad (City University if New York - Queens College); Nuno Palma (University of Manchester; Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa; CEPR)
    Abstract: The quest for precious metals and trade routes during the early modern period fundamentally changed the world. What was the global impact of the large deposits of silver and gold which existed in the Americas? In this chapter, we take a global view. We find that in Europe, England and the Netherlands benefited the most. By contrast, the colonizers par excellence, Spain and Portugal, were unable to profit from their colonial expansion. In Latin America, the exploitation of precious mineral resources enabled the geographic expansion of the empire. The direct impact on other parts of the world was negligible; but the long-term political consequences of European presence shaped the world as we know it today.
    Keywords: Denmark, enclosures, land inequality
    JEL: N50 O43 Q33 F54
    Date: 2020–04
  4. By: Peter Sandholt Jensen (University of Southern Denmark); Cristina Victoria Radu (University of Southern Denmark); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: Granular microdata is of growing interest within economics and economic history. Thus, we document, present, and make available to the scholarly community a uniquely detailed database of 20,152 observations of wages and 30,000 observations of prices in rural Denmark for men, women and children, and for both skilled and unskilled workers over the eighteenth century. We the proceed to illustrate two potential applications. First, we construct nominal wages and deflate them using Allen’s constant consumer baskets. Real wages exhibit a considerable fall with the introduction of serfdom, and other changes consistent with known historical events. Second, we consider skill premia, finding no secular trends between skill categories, but considerable variation both within and between categories over time, suggesting that estimates based on simple averages should be interpreted with caution.
    Keywords: Denmark, microdata, prices, skill premia, wages
    JEL: J31 N33 N93
    Date: 2020–04
  5. By: Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on the origins of modern economic growth in Europe from a very long run perspective using econometric techniques that allow for a long-range dependence approach. Different regimes, defined by endogenously estimated structural shocks, coincided with episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century's world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels, but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague while evidence a negative reaction in non-Malthusian economies. Positive trend growth in output per head and population took place in the North Sea Area (Britain and the Low Countries) since the Plague. A gap between the North Sea Area and the rest of Europe, the Little Divergence, emerged between the early seventeenth century and the Napoleonic Wars lending support to Broadberry-van Zanden's interpretation.
    Keywords: Malthusian; Pandemics; War; Little Divergence; Long-Run Growth
    JEL: O47 O10 N40 N30 N10 E01
    Date: 2020–06–05
  6. By: Bengtsson, Erik (Lund University); Rubolino, Enrico (ISER, University of Essex); Waldenström, Daniel (Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of the labor-capital split in national income for 20 countries since the late 1800s. Our main identification strategy focuses on unique historical quasi-experimental events: i) the introduction of universal suffrage, ii) close election wins of left-wing governments, iii) decolonization, iv) unionization shocks, and v) wars. We also run instrumented panel regressions. Our findings show that the capital share decreased in response to radical institutional and political shifts, such as the introduction of universal suffrage in the early 1900s, the undoing of colonialism and the implementation of redistributive policies during the post-war period. By contrast, the capital share increased following the erosion of trade unionism since the 1980s. Wars, despite destroying the capital stock, generated windfall profits that increased the capital share.
    Keywords: inequality, factor shares, event study, economic history, institutions
    JEL: D33 E02 N00
    Date: 2020–04
  7. By: Carlo Vercellone (CEMTI - Centre d'études sur les médias, les technologies et l'internationalisation - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)
    Abstract: Cognitive capitalism and the informational revolution have gone hand in hand with a blurring of the boundaries between work and leisure time. At the heart of this evolution is the rise of platform capitalism, and in particular the "merchantable gratuitousness" platforms, like Google and Facebook, which have now taken first place in the ranking of world firms in terms of stock market capitalisation and profitability. Their profit model is based on the logic of multi-sided markets and combines the sale of online advertising and the extraction of user data. The users thus represent both the product and the producers of the main raw material underlying the organisation of the advertising market for merchantable gratuitousness platforms. This is called Free Digital Labor. This concept refers to the activity, apparently both gratuitous and self-governing, performed, often unknowingly, by a multitude of individuals on the internet for the benefit of big internet oligopolies and data industries. The Free Digital Labor thesis is highly controversial. It is often rejected by means of three main arguments: 1. it would be, not labor, but the intangible capital of the algorithm which, through an automated process, would extract and create most of the value; 2. the Free Digital Labor would escape not only the canonical criteria of wage labor, but also the anthropological definition of labor as a conscious and voluntary goal-oriented activity; 3. the free services proposed by the platforms would be remuneration in kind, excluding any relationship of exploitation. Our contribution aims to clarify the terms of this debate and to respond to these objections through a historical and theoretical analysis of the changes in the capital-labor relationship that occurred under the aegis of platform capitalism.
    Abstract: Le capitalisme cognitif et la révolution informationnelle sont allés de pair avec un effritement des frontières entre temps de travail et temps libre. Au centre de cette évolution se trouve l'essor du capitalisme des plateformes et notamment des plateformes de la « gratuité marchande » qui, à l'image de Google et Facebook, ont désormais conquis le premières places dans le classement des firmes mondiales en termes de capitalisation boursières et de rentabilité. Leur modèle de profit repose sur la logique des marchés multi-versants et associe la vente de la publicité en ligne et l'extraction des données des usagers. Ces derniers représentent ainsi à la fois le produit et les producteurs de la principale matière première à la base de l'organisation du marché publicitaire des plateformes de la gratuité marchande. C'est ce que l'on nomme le Free Digital Labor. Par ce concept on désigne le travail à la fois gratuit et apparemment libre qu'une multitude d'individus effectue sur internet, souvent inconsciemment, au profit des grands oligopoles du numérique et des data industries. La thèse du Free Digital Labor suscite une vive controverse. Elle est souvent rejetée au moyen de trois principaux arguments : ce serait, non le travail, mais le capital immatériel de l'algorithme qui, par un processus automatisé, extrairait et créerait l'essentiel de la valeur ; le Free Digital Labor échapperait non seulement aux critères canoniques du travail salarié, mais aussi à la définition anthropologique du travail vu comme une activité consciente et volontaire orientée vers un but ; les services gratuits offerts par les plateformes correspondraient à une rémunération en nature excluant tout rapport d'exploitation. Notre contribution se propose d'élucider les termes de ce débat et de répondre à ces objections par une analyse historique et théorique des mutations du rapport capital/travail intervenues sous l'égide du capitalisme des plateformes. ABSTRACT. Cognitive capitalism and the informational revolution have gone hand in hand with a blurring of the boundaries between work and leisure time. At the heart of this evolution is the rise of platform capitalism, and in particular the "merchantable gratuitousness" platforms, like Google and Facebook, which have now taken first place in the ranking of world firms in terms of stock market capitalisation and profitability. Their profit model is based on the logic of multi-sided markets and combines the sale of online advertising and the extraction of user data. The users thus represent both the product and the producers of the main raw material underlying the organisation of the advertising market for merchantable gratuitousness platforms. This is called Free Digital Labor. This concept refers to the activity, apparently both gratuitous and self-governing, performed, often unknowingly, by a multitude of individuals on the internet for the benefit of big internet oligopolies and data industries. The Free Digital Labor thesis is highly controversial. It is often rejected by means of three main arguments: 1. it would be, not labor, but the intangible capital of the algorithm which, through an automated process, would extract and create most of the value; 2. the Free Digital Labor would escape not only the canonical criteria of wage labor, but also the anthropological definition of labor as a conscious and voluntary goal-oriented activity; 3. the free services proposed by the platforms would be remuneration in kind, excluding any relationship of exploitation. Our contribution aims to clarify the terms of this debate and to respond to these objections through a historical and theoretical analysis of the changes in the capital-labor relationship that occurred under the aegis of platform capitalism.
    Keywords: Karl Marx KEYWORDS cognitive capitalism,Algorithmes,Free Digital Labor,platform capitalism,multi-sided markets,data,Algorithms,Free Digital Labour,Karl Marx,MOTS-CLES capitalisme cognitif,capitalisme des plateformes,marches multi-versants,données
    Date: 2020–04–13
  8. By: Carlos Manuel Faísca
    Abstract: The supply of raw material is probably the most important issue in the cork business due mainly to the preponderance that it presents in the industry's cost structure. In the 19th century, the quality and quantity of cork was an even more important factor than nowadays because, in the absence of the cork agglomerate, only corks with larges calibers and high quality had industrial use. This work analyses, in a comparative perspective between Spain and Portugal, a cultural practice with high repercussion in the forest production of cork, the use of the soil. The main objective is to identify, during the second half of the 19th century, agroforestry practices that may have reduced the cork potential of the Iberian countries, helping to partially explain the different level in which Portugal and Spain cork business were in the 19th century. However, it is concluded, from the analysis of several sources that cover the main Iberian regions with cork oak forests, that on both sides there were harmful actions against the correct development of cork in the trees. Soil mobilization and full weeding of the bushes, for example, often due to cereal crops, led to a decline in soil fertility and of the usability of the land with negative economic and ecological repercussions.
    Keywords: cork oak forest, cork, soil degradation
    JEL: N53 N63 Q23
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: Jorge Braga de Macedo
    Abstract: In late January, Miguel Rocha de Rocha (a Nova SBE alumnus now running the economics department at Evora University) asked me for an updated publication list - just before faculty home pages were discontinued. After quickly selecting 292 entries from my website (266 academic titles and 26 policy documents) and pointing to popular writings and media appearances of similar magnitude, I could not resist the urge of double checking and wondered whether this could take the form of a Working Paper. Encouraged by the librarian to submit the result, I soon realized that the total came to four digits, even leaving out all most political documents and communications while I held elected office. The result is listed in two tables, the first one with the nine types he suggested (roughly books, journal articles and short writings), the second with print, radio and TV, fetched from often cryptic entries in diaries. It is prefaced by a curriculum vitae, minimally updating the one I had written and posted over ten years ago.
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Mehmet Akif, Destek; Muhammad, Shahbaz; Ilyas, Okumus; Shawkat, Hammoudeh; Avik, Sinha
    Abstract: This paper re-investigates the time-varying impacts of economic growth on carbon emissions in the G-7 countries over a long history. In doing so, the historical data spanning the period from the 1800s to 2010 (as constructed) for each country is examined using the time-varying cointegration and bootstrap-rolling window estimation approach. Unlike the previous environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) studies, using this methodology gives us avenue to detect more than one, two, or more turning points for the economic growth-carbon emissions nexus. The empirical findings show that the nexus between economic growth and carbon emission seems over a long history to be M-shaped for Canada and the UK; N-shaped for France; inverted N-shaped for Germany; and invertedM-shaped (W-shaped) for Italy, Japan, and the USA. In addition, the possible validity of EKC hypothesis is examined for both the pre-1973 and post-1973 sub-periods. Based on this investigation, we found that an inverted U-shaped is confirmed only for the pre-1973 period in France, Italy, and the USA. These empirical evidences provide new insights to policy makers to improve environmental quality using economic growth as an economic tool for the long run by observing changes in the environmental impact of this growth from year to year.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets curve; Chebyshev time polynomials; Time-varying cointegration; G-7 countries
    JEL: Q5 Q53
    Date: 2020–04
  11. By: MacLeod, W. Bentley (Columbia University); Urquiola, Miguel (Columbia University)
    Abstract: Around 1870 the U.S. had no research universities of note, while today it accounts for the largest number in the world. Many accounts attribute this transformation to events surrounding World War II. In contrast, this paper traces its origins to reforms that began in the 1870s. We first explain the origins of the American system's weakness at research. We then present an agency theory framework that highlights ingredients necessary for enhanced research performance. These include specialization and meaningful performance metrics. We then discuss reforms that put these ingredients in place. For example: the introduction of specialized and advanced teaching and the ensuing rise of disciplines/departments; the creation of academic journals; the introduction of selective admissions. Throughout, we emphasize the role played by the U.S. university system's free market orientation.
    Keywords: education, human capital, personnel economics
    JEL: J24 J44
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Dalida Kadyrzhanova; Camelia Minoiu; Lev Ratnovski
    Abstract: We study the composition of bank loan portfolios during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy where firms increasingly use intangible capital. Exploiting heterogeneity in bank exposure to the compositional shift from tangible to intangible capital, we show that exposed banks curtail commercial lending and reallocate lending to other assets, such as mortgages. We estimate that the substantial growth in intangible capital since the mid-1980s explains around 30% of the secular decline in the share of commercial lending in banks' loan portfolios. We provide suggestive evidence that this reallocation increased the riskiness of banks' mortgage lending.
    Keywords: Bank lending; Corporate intangible capital; Real estate loans; Commercial loans
    JEL: E22 E44 G21
    Date: 2020–05–22
  13. By: Potjagailo, Galina (Bank of England); Wolters, Maik H (University of Wuerzburg, Kiel Institute, and IMFS at Goethe University Frankfurt)
    Abstract: With the aim to provide a detailed understanding of global financial cycles and their relevance over time, we analyse co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and interest rates across 17 advanced economies over 130 years. Using a time-varying dynamic factor model, we observe global co-movement across financial variables as well as variable-specific global cycles of different lengths and amplitudes. Global cycles have gained relevance over time. For equity prices, they now constitute the main driver of fluctuations in most countries. Global cycles in credit and housing have become much more pronounced and protracted since the 1980s, but their relevance increased for a sub-group of financially open and developed economies only. Panel regressions indicate that a country’s susceptibility to global financial cycles tends to increase with financial openness and financial integration, the extent of mortgage-related lending, and the efficiency of stock markets. Understanding the cross-country heterogeneity in financial market characteristics therefore matters for the design of appropriate financial stabilization policies across countries and sectors.
    Keywords: Financial cycles; financial crisis; global co-movement; dynamic factor models; time-varying parameters; macro-finance
    JEL: C32 C38 E44 F44 F65 G15 N10 N20
    Date: 2020–05–29
  14. By: Fritz Helmedag
    Abstract: Ausgehend von der Erlaeuterung, welche Bedeutungen und Charakteristika der Begriff „Wissenschaft“ im Allgemeinen umfasst, wird im Besonderen die konkrete Eigenart der Wissenschaft von der Wirtschaft bestimmt. Zunaechst wird auf die Sprachgebundenheit menschlichen Denkens und Erkennens verwiesen, um im naechsten Schritt Systematisierungsansaetze und Abgrenzungskriterien der Disziplinen zu eroertern. Danach ruecken die Forschungskonzeptionen in den Faechern sowie die Verlaesslichkeit der jeweils erzielten Resultate in den Fokus. Abschließend wird beleuchtet, welche Methoden in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften zur Wahl stehen und ob Werturteile ueberhaupt vermeidbar oder moeglicherweise in der oekonomik sogar geboten sind.
    Keywords: Wissenschaft, Methoden, Werturteile
    JEL: A11 B15 N01 Z13
  15. By: Nina Boberg-Fazlic (University of Southern Denmark); Markus Lampe (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, CEPR); Pablo Martinelli Lasheras (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: There is a vast literature on the effects of land inequality and agrarian reforms, but little on the origins of this inequality. We exploit a new and unique parish-level database of land inequality in Denmark, from 1682 to 1895, during which period there was comprehensive land reform and enclosure. We demonstrate that inequality increased after land reform in areas with more productive land, measured using contemporary tax assessments. We instrument for land quality using glacial and post glacial sediment soil types. We propose a mechanism whereby agrarian reforms allowed areas with better soil quality to realize greater productivity gains. Malthusian mechanisms and internal migration then led to greater population increases in more fertile areas, leading to a larger share of smallholders and landless laborers. We present evidence for this mechanism in part from population density revealed by censuses. After the reforms, the geographical pattern of inequality remained strikingly constant, although population and inequality continued to grow throughout the nineteenth century.
    Keywords: Denmark, enclosures, land inequality
    JEL: O13 N53 Q15
    Date: 2020–04
  16. By: Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
    Abstract: We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves' ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
    Keywords: Black family,slavery,sugar,migration,culture
    JEL: J12 J47 N30 O13 Z10
    Date: 2020
  17. By: JosŽ Peres-Caj’as (Universitat de Barcelona, Spain); Kristin Ranestad (Lund University, Sweden)
    Abstract: Rather than exogenous endowments, natural resources can be seen as economically exploitable resources thanks to knowledge improvements. This underscores the need to understand why some natural resource abundant countries are able to develop their own technologies while others are not. We tackle this issue by looking at the evolution of engineering faculties and graduate engineers from 1850 to 1939 in Andean and Nordic countries, two regions where natural resources were critical at the onset of modern economic growth. We find the consolidation of a knowledge gap between Andean and Nordic countries during the First Globalization that was materialized in: a) a drastic difference in the total number of locally trained engineers; b) the role that these engineers played in their respective labor markets. These differences were the result of differences in public support to primary education and migration traditions. Both, in turn, are linked to historical and geographic contingencies.
    Keywords: Human capital, Technology, Innovation, First Globalization, Patents, Mining
    JEL: N40 N50 N80 O33 O38
    Date: 2020–06
  18. By: Giovanni Dosi; Lucrezia Fanti; Maria Enrica Virgillito
    Abstract: The explosion of the pandemic has been optimistically considered as the ''last straw that breaks the camel's back''. At the time of writing, after three months since its out- burst, we can hardly find any sign of a ''broken camel'': indeed, it could have been the opportunity to collectively question the current regime of production and appro- priation, exclusion and marketization characterizing this phase of unjust ''rentified capitalism'', but the route taken has largely seen a frightening combination of ''business as usual'' on the production side and pervasive forms of social control, limitations of individual and collective rights and the perpetuation of a false dichotomy between economic and health security. This pandemic, which under decent public health provisions might have been a controlled disease, is producing the most severe crisis after the Great Depression and has been used to implement forms of massive social control hardly conceivable in ''advanced democracies''. Butterfly effects are well-known in complexity sciences. However, social scientists have still difficulties in understanding how a grain can make the sandcastle fall down. On the contrary, we are now under the actual risk of starting a ''new normal'' without dealing with the deep routes and origins of this crisis, with the dominant intellectual discourse pushing for maintaining and indeed reinforcing the status quo, established power and social blocks. This myopic strategy might end up in collectively disruptive socio-political transformations.
    Keywords: Social fabric; Pandemics; Inequalities; Lockdown; Social Injustice.
    Date: 2020–05–30
  19. By: Alix-Garcia, Jennifer; Schechter, Laura; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe; Zhu, Jessica
    Abstract: Skewed sex ratios often result from conflict, disease, and migration, yet their long term impact remains less understood. The War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870) in South America killed up to 70% of the Paraguayan male population. According to Paraguayan national lore, the skewed sex ratios resulting from the confliict are the cause of present-day low marriage rates, high rates of out-of-wedlock births and a generally male chauvinist culture. We collate historical and modern data to test this conventional wisdom in the short and the long run. We examine both cross-border and within-country variation in child-rearing, education and labor force participation in Paraguay over a 150 year period. We find that more skewed post-war sex ratios are associated with higher out-of-wedlock births, more female-headed households, and better female educational outcomes, even after the first returned to normal. Cross-country comparisons suggest that Paraguayan women are less likely to be employed than those in neighboring districts in Argentina and Brazil, but that within Paraguay, they are more likely to be employed where the sex ratio shock was more severe. The impacts of the war persist into the present, and are seemingly unaffected by variation in economic openness, uncertainty, or traditional norms.
    Keywords: conflict; Education; Female Labor Force Participation; Gender; History; Illegitimacy; Latin America; Paraguay; Persistence
    JEL: D74 I25 J16 J21 N16
    Date: 2020–05
  20. By: Bazzi, Samuel; Hilmy, Masyhur; Marx, Benjamin
    Abstract: Public schooling systems are an essential feature of modern states. These systems often developed at the expense of religious schools, which undertook the bulk of education historically and still cater to large student populations worldwide. This paper examines how Indonesia's long-standing Islamic school system responded to the construction of 61,000 public elementary schools in the mid-1970s. The policy was designed in part to foster nation building and to curb religious influence in society. We are the first to study the market response to these ideological objectives. Using novel data on Islamic school construction and curriculum, we identify both short-run effects on exposed cohorts as well as dynamic, long-run effects on education markets. While primary enrollment shifted towards state schools, religious education increased on net as Islamic secondary schools absorbed the increased demand for continued education. The Islamic sector not only entered new markets to compete with the state but also increased religious curriculum at newly created schools. Our results suggest that the Islamic sector response increased religiosity at the expense of a secular national identity. Overall, this ideological competition in education undermined the nation-building impacts of mass schooling.
    Keywords: education; Islam; Nation building; religion; school competition
    JEL: H52 I25 N45 P16 Z12
    Date: 2020–05
  21. By: INOUE Hiroyasu; OKAZAKI Tetsuji; SAITO Yukiko; NAKAJIMA Kentaro
    Abstract: Using patent information to understand the role of innovation in the process of industrialization in Japan, we examined paper documents and constructed a patent bibliographic information database from 1910 to 1945, which mainly consists of the prewar period. In this paper, we report the database construction method and the descriptive analysis using the database, especially from the viewpoint of the geographical distribution and collaboration pattern of innovation activities. We find the following results. First, patent applications are already concentrated in metropolitan areas, especially in Tokyo, from 1910. Second, patents categorized to technology class with higher technology tend to be more concentrated. While the number of collaborating patents are smaller compared to current numbers in 2020, the average number of collaborators increased from 1.1 to 1.5 during this period. The average number of collaborators for patents filed by foreigners is also lager and also increased during this period.
    Date: 2020–04
  22. By: James J. Feigenbaum; Soumyajit Mazumder; Cory B. Smith
    Abstract: How do coercive societies respond to negative economic shocks? We explore this question in the early 20th-Century United States South. Since before the nation's founding, cotton cultivation formed the politics and institutions in the South, including the development of slavery, the lack of democratic institutions, and intergroup relations between whites and blacks. We leverage the natural experiment generated by the boll weevil infestation from 1892-1922, which disrupted cotton production in the region. Panel difference-in-differences results provide evidence that Southern society became less violent and repressive in response to this shock with fewer lynchings and less Confederate monument construction. Cross-sectional results leveraging spatial variation in the infestation and historical cotton specialization show that affected counties had less KKK activity, higher non-white voter registration, and were less likely to experience contentious politics in the form of protests during the 1960s. To assess mechanisms, we show that the reductions in coercion were responses to African American out-migration. Even in a context of antidemocratic institutions, ordinary people can retain political power through the ability to ``vote with their feet.''
    JEL: J15 K0 N3 N5
    Date: 2020–05
  23. By: Èric Gómez-i-Aznar (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This work provides data on human capital for the Guarani Jesuit missions during the 18th century. Based on the age heaping methodology, the results of a large sample (over 3,600 observations) suggest that the knowledge of numerical skills in these missions was exceptional. A comparison with other regions and locations with different institutional frameworks, religious or otherwise, or led by other religious orders, confirms the exceptionality of the Guarani Jesuit missions. The model of these missions, based on productive self-sufficiency and egalitarian and cohesive social organization, as well as respect for the pre-existing culture exemplified by their Guaraníization and adaptation to the Guarani world view and language, could explain their successful educational performance and the intergenerational transmission of human capital beyond the disappearance of the Jesuit missions after 1767.
    Keywords: Human Capital, Economic Development, Numeracy, Institutions
    JEL: I21 I25 J24 O4
    Date: 2020–04
  24. By: Alexandre Moatti (SPHERE (UMR_7219) - Sciences, Philosophie, Histoire - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2020–03–26
  25. By: Jean-Louis Combes (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mary-Françoise Renard (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Shuo Shi (CCES - China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University)
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to study the relationship between international trade openness and domestic market integration in Late Imperial China. More specifically, we focus on a natural experiment namely the Unequal Treaties of the second half of the nineteenth century that lifted the long-existing international trade restriction system. The integration of domestic markets is analyzed while looking at the existence of a long term common movement in the grain prices between provinces. The econometric results show that trade openness did not lead to better integration of the Chinese domestic grain markets. Our results support the hypothesis according to which long-distance trade has not generated efficiency gains in domestic markets. We evidence a strong segmentation between domestic and international grain markets owing to different traded products and operators.
    Keywords: Market integration,Law of one prices,Late Imperial China
    Date: 2020–05–25
  26. By: Joseph Price; Christian vom Lehn; Riley Wilson
    Abstract: Using recent innovations in linking historical U.S. Census data, we study the economic impacts of immigration on natives, including their geographic migration response. We find that the arrival of foreign immigrants significantly increases both native out-migration and in-migration. Accounting for this selective geographic migration, we find smaller economic impacts of immigration for native workers than previous work, including no positive impact on worker incomes. We present evidence of significant “losers” from increased immigration, namely workers who appear to be displaced by immigrant labor and move out of their local labor market, whereas the workers who remain see significant benefits. We also find that younger and lowerskilled workers are “losers” from increased immigration, whereas older and higher-skilled workers are “winners.”
    JEL: J21 J31 J61 J62 N32
    Date: 2020–05
  27. By: Burchardi, Konrad B.; Chaney, Thomas; Hassan, Tarek Alexander; Tarquinio, Lisa; Terry, Stephen
    Abstract: We show a causal impact of immigration on innovation and dynamism in US counties. To identify the causal impact of immigration, we use 130 years of detailed data on migrations from foreign countries to US counties to isolate quasi-random variation in the ancestry composition of US counties that results purely from the interaction of two historical forces: (i) changes over time in the relative attractiveness of different destinations within the US to the average migrant arriving at the time and (ii) the staggered timing of the arrival of migrants from different origin countries. We then use this plausibly exogenous variation in ancestry composition to predict the total number of migrants flowing into each US county in recent decades. We show four main results. First, immigration has a positive impact on innovation, measured by the patenting of local firms. Second, immigration has a positive impact on measures of local economic dynamism. Third, the positive impact of immigration on innovation percolates over space, but spatial spillovers quickly die out with distance. Fourth, the impact of immigration on innovation is stronger for more educated migrants.
    Keywords: dynamism; Endogenous Growth; Innovation; Migrations; patents
    JEL: J61 O31 O40
    Date: 2020–05
  28. By: Stuart, Rebecca
    Abstract: The ability of the term structure (specifically the term spread, or the difference between the long and short ends of the yield curve) to predict economic activity is empirically well-established for the US, but less so for small open economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for this predictive ability. Between 1972-2018, Ireland experienced three monetary regimes: first, the Irish Pound was fixed to Sterling (1972-1979); second the Pound floated in a band when Ireland was a member of the EMS (1979-1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999-2018). Using dynamic probit models and monthly data, I show that the term spread only had predictive power during the second regime, the only one in which the Central Bank of Ireland had any discretion to set interest rates based on domestic conditions.
    Keywords: Ireland,term structure,recessions,monetary regimes
    JEL: C25 E00 E43 N14
    Date: 2020
  29. By: Heller Sahlgren, Gabriel (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Wennström, Johan (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: In the aftermath of the Second World War, Sweden dismantled an education system that was strongly influenced by German, Neo-Humanist pedagogical principles in favor of a progressive, student-centered system. This article suggests this was in large part due to a fatal misinterpretation of the education policy on which Nazism was predicated. Contrary to scholarly and popular belief, Nazi schools were not characterized by discipline and run top-down by teachers. In fact, the Nazis encouraged a nationwide youth rebellion in schools. Many Nazi leaders had themselves experienced the belligerent, child-centered war pedagogy of 1914–1918 rather than a traditional German education. Yet, Swedish school reformers came to regard Neo-Humanism as a fulcrum of the Third Reich. The article suggests this mistake paved the way for a school system that inadvertently came to share certain traits with the true educational credo of Nazism and likely contributed to Sweden’s recent educational decline.
    Keywords: National Socialism; Neo-Humanism; Progressivism; Sweden; War pedagogy
    JEL: D70 E65 I20 I28 N44
    Date: 2020–05–14
  30. By: Peter Sandholt Jensen (University of Southern Denmark); Maja Uhre Pedersen (University of Southern Denmark); Cristina Victoria Radu (University of Southern Denmark); Paul Richard Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: Unified Growth Theory postulates a transition from a Malthusian to a post-Malthusian era and finally to modern economic growth. Previous studies have been able to date the end of the post-Malthusian era, but none have conclusively established the timing of the end of the Malthusian era and thus transition to the post-Malthusian era. We consider the case of Denmark, which was characterized by extreme resource and environmental constraints until the final decades of the eighteenth century and thus presents a good candidate for a purely Malthusian society. We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Danish data from ca. 1733-1800, finding that evidence for diminishing returns, which characterize the “pure” Malthusian era, disappears after 1775, consistent with an increasing pace of technological progress.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Denmark, Malthusian, post-Malthusian
    JEL: J1 N33 O4
    Date: 2020–04
  31. By: Tetsuji OKAZAKI; Koji SAKAI
    Abstract: This paper examines capital market integration in prewar Japan, using a methodology that allows for multiple equilibria in convergence. Specifically, we apply the method of log t regression and the club convergence test proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007) to examine the convergence of prefectural loan rates and detect the convergence clubs that followed heterogeneous transition paths. Whereas prefectural loan rates were converging towards two equilibria from 1888–1900, all the prefectural loan rates converged towards a unique equilibrium from 1901–1926. From 1927, however, the prefectural loan rates diverged again, and four different convergence clubs emerged. Restrictive regulation imposed by the Bank Law of 1928 reduced competition in local markets, increased barriers to interregional capital mobility, and, thereby, reversed capital market integration.
    Date: 2020–03
  32. By: Tetsuji OKAZAKI
    Abstract: This paper explores the implications of technological change on the wages and skills of workers in early twentieth-century Japan. The Japanese economy experienced essential elements of the industrial revolution, such as the adoption of the factory system and mechanization, in this period. Exploiting detailed plant-level data on the silk weaving industry, we compare wage and composition of workers between powered plants and nonpowered plants. We found that (a) the wage, (b) the relative wage of male adult workers to female adult workers, and (c) the ratio of male workers, were all higher at powered plants than non-powered plants. (a) reflects the higher marginal productivity of labour, while (b) and (c) reflect the emergence of a new type of skilled worker, i.e. mechanics.
    Date: 2020–03
  33. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University); Cinnirella, Francesco (University of Bergamo)
    Abstract: We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy.
    Keywords: religion, segregation, literacy, fertility, Prussia
    JEL: J13 J15 I21 N33 Z12
    Date: 2020–04

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