nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒05‒25
twenty-six papers chosen by

  1. Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints – Jewish social science and the analysis of Jewish statistics in the early 20th century By Vallois, Nicolas
  2. Intergenerational Wealth Mobility in France, 19th and 20th Century By Jérôme Bourdieu; Lionel Kesztenbaum; Gilles Postel-Vinay; Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann
  3. A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics By Peter Zhixian Lin; Christopher M. Meissner
  4. Economic effects of the Black Death: Spain in European perspective By Santiago Caballero, Carlos; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro; Álvarez Nogal, Carlos
  5. The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage By Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Karen Kopecky
  6. Statehood experience and income inequality: A historical perspective By Vu, Trung V.
  7. World War I and the Rise of Fascism in Italy By Gianluca Russo
  8. Changes in Black-White Inequality: Evidence from the Boll Weevil By Karen Clay; Ethan J. Schmick; Werner Troesken
  9. Inclusive growth without structural transformation?: The case of Brazil By Sergio Firpo; Renan Pieri; Rafaela Nogueira
  10. Slow Real Wage Growth during the Industrial Revolution: Productivity Paradox or Pro-Rich Growth? By Crafts, Nicholas
  11. Antiquity and capitalism: The finance-growth perspective By Dombi, Akos; Grigoriadis, Theocharis; Zhu, Junbing
  12. The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu By Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
  13. A global analysis of hinterlands from a European perspective. In: Global Logistics Network Modelling and Policy: Quantification and Analysis for International Freight By David Guerrero
  14. Personal Bankruptcy: Model structures and the fresh start By Walter, György
  15. Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections By George J. Hall; Thomas J. Sargent
  16. Expectations and Full Employment: Hansen, Samuelson and Lange By Michaël Assous; Olivier Bruno; Vincent Carret; Muriel Dal Pont Legrand
  17. Islam and the State: Religious Education in the Age of Mass Schooling By Samuel Bazzi; Masyhur Hilmy; Benjamin Marx
  18. Seasonal Home Advantage in English Professional Football; 1973-2018 By Thomas Peeters; Jan C. van Ours
  19. Syncritism in Pentecost-Charismatic Movement By Simanjuntak, Fredy
  20. Education and Innovation: The Long Shadow of the Cultural Revolution By Zhangkai Huang; Gordon M. Phillips; Jialun Yang; Yi Zhang
  21. Inequalities: Income, Wealth and consumption By Boyer, Marcel
  22. The Balanced Scorecard – Dinosaur or Giant? By Schulke, Arne
  23. Inequality and the Safety Net Throughout the Income Distribution, 1929-1940 By James J. Feigenbaum; Price V. Fishback; Keoka Grayson
  24. Patience Breeds Interest: The Rise of Societal Patience and the Fall of the Risk-free Interest Rate By Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski; Alex Trew
  25. An empirical analysis of the Determinants of Real GDP Growth in Sierra Leone from 1980-2018 By Barrie, Mohamed Samba
  26. Immigration, Innovation, and Growth By Konrad B. Burchardi; Thomas Chaney; Tarek Alexander Hassan; Lisa Tarquinio; Stephen J. Terry

  1. By: Vallois, Nicolas
    Abstract: The late 19th century saw the multiplication of statistical studies on Jewish populations. This literature is now known as “Jewish Statistics” or “Jewish Social Science” (JSS). This article focuses on the articles published in der Zeitschrift für Demographie und Statistik der Juden (Journal for Demography and Statistics of the Jews, ZDSJ). The ZDSJ was the main journal in JSS and appeared from 1905 until 1931. Existing scholarship on JSS has either focused on the influence of Zionism (Hart, 2000) or eugenics and race theory (Efron, 1994). This article proposes to relate JSS to the history of economics and statistics. As suggests the intellectual profile of the main contributors to the ZDSJ, we argue that JSS was a by-product of the German historical school in economics. Though JSS was intended to a mostly Jewish audience, its organization and methods were clearly inspired by those of German economists.
    Date: 2020–05–07
  2. By: Jérôme Bourdieu (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lionel Kesztenbaum (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gilles Postel-Vinay (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper examines intergenerational wealth mobility between fathers and children in France between 1848 and 1960. Considering wealth mobility in the long run requires taking into account not only positional mobility (that is, how families move within a given distribution of wealth), but also structural mobility induced by changes in the distribution of wealth. Such changes are related to two structural phenomena: in the nineteenth century, the rising number of individuals leaving no estate at death and, after World War I, the decline in the number of the very rich who could live off their wealth. The paper studies the movements between these groups and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of wealth, taking into account the persistence at the bottom and at the top.
    Keywords: economic history JEL codes: D31,France,N3,wealth distribution,intergenerational mobility
    Date: 2019–03
  3. By: Peter Zhixian Lin; Christopher M. Meissner
    Abstract: Covid-19 is the single largest threat to global public health since the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20. Was the world better prepared in 2020 than it was in 1918? After a century of public health and basic science research, pandemic response and mortality outcomes should be better than in 1918-20. We ask whether historical mortality from pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. We find a strong persistence in public health performance in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Places that performed poorly in terms of mortality in 1918 were more likely to have higher mortality today. This is true across countries and across a sample of US cities. Experience with SARS is associated with lower mortality today. Distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation at many levels, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages have likely promoted higher mortality today as in the past.
    JEL: H12 I0 N0
    Date: 2020–05
  4. By: Santiago Caballero, Carlos; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro; Álvarez Nogal, Carlos
    Abstract: The Black Death was the most devastating demographic shock in recorded human history. However, the effects in the European population were highly asymmetrical as were its economic consequences. This paper studies the short and long run economic effects of the plague in Spain in European perspective. While the demographic impact in Spain was moderate compared to the European average, the economic effects were more severe and incomes per head fell sharply. This was a consequence of the existence of a frontier economy in Spain characterised by a relative scarcity of labour and a fragile equilibrium between factors of production. Unlike most of Europe, in Spain the Black Death increased inequality as the remuneration of labour decreased more rapidly than proprietors' gains. In the long term the Plague reinforced the frontier economy status.
    Keywords: Inequality; Income; Spain; Malthusian; Frontier Economy; Black Death
    JEL: O52 N33 N13 I10
    Date: 2020–05–21
  5. By: Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Karen Kopecky
    Abstract: The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon finding one, they can choose between abstinence, a premarital sexual relationship, and marriage. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented.
    Keywords: age of marriage, contraceptive technology, history, never-married population, number of partners, out-of-wedlock births, premarital sex, singles
    JEL: J12 J13 N32 N31
    Date: 2020–05
  6. By: Vu, Trung V.
    Abstract: Does state history matter for contemporary income distribution? Employing data for up to 153 countries, this paper examines the extent to which accumulated statehood experience, obtained over six millennia, affects the current level of income inequality. To capture the historical depth of experience with state-level institutions, I use an extended measure of state history, constructed from 3500BCE to 2000CE. The results indicate that the relationship between state history and income inequality exhibits a U-shaped pattern. Specifically, statehood experience up to a point helps reduce income inequality. Nevertheless, an excessive duration of state history is conducive to more unequal income distribution. These findings are largely robust to performing a battery of sensitivity tests.
    Keywords: state history, income inequality, deep determinants, comparative development.
    JEL: N00 O11 O15 O43
    Date: 2020–05
  7. By: Gianluca Russo (Boston University)
    Abstract: One of the key steps that allowed Mussolini to become the Italian Duce was the victory in the 1924 national elections. I study the impact of World War I on Mussolini’s electoral success. I reconstruct the military death rate for the universe of Italian municipalities, which is matched to municipal level voting in the 1924 election. After controlling for the number of individuals drafted in a municipality, the variation in the share of fatalities is caused by military events exogenous to municipality characteristics that could simultaneously affect support for Fascism. I find that a higher share of fatalities increases the vote share for Fascism. In particular, the vote share for Fascism is higher in municipalities with both higher fatality rates and a greater number of veterans returning from the frontline. I show that the effect of WWI deaths is driven by municipalities that in 1921 had above median vote shares for the Socialist party. This is consistent with the historical narrative that the initial rise of Mussolini was facilitated by the red menace: the threat of a Socialist revolution in Italy.
    Keywords: Political Economy, Fascism, War Fatalities
    JEL: D72 P16 N44
    Date: 2018–07
  8. By: Karen Clay; Ethan J. Schmick; Werner Troesken
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of a large negative agricultural shock, the boll weevil, on black-white inequality in the first half of the twentieth century. To do this we use complete count census data to generate a linked sample of fathers and their sons. We find that the boll weevil induced enormous labor market and social disruption as more than half of black and white fathers moved to other counties following the arrival of the weevil. The shock impacted black and white sons differently. We compare sons whose fathers initially resided in the same county and find that white sons born after the boll weevil had similar wages and schooling outcomes to white sons born prior to its arrival. In contrast, black sons born after the boll weevil had significantly higher wages and years of schooling, narrowing the black-white wage and schooling gaps. This decrease appears to have been driven by relative improvements in early life conditions and access to schooling both for sons of black fathers that migrated out of the South and sons of black fathers that stayed in the South.
    JEL: I24 J10 J62 N32
    Date: 2020–05
  9. By: Sergio Firpo; Renan Pieri; Rafaela Nogueira
    Abstract: Through rapid urbanization, Brazil?previously a country where most workers were in the agricultural sector?went through a strong process of structural transformation that lasted almost four decades until economic liberalization at the beginning of the 1990s. During the same period, income inequality remained practically stable and at high levels, only falling at the end of the 1990s. Taking a historical point of view, this paper analyses the Brazilian experience during three periods: 1950 to 1964, 1964 to 1994, and 1994 to 2011.
    Keywords: Brazil, import substitution, Inclusive growth, Structural transformation
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Crafts, Nicholas (University of Warwick & University of Sussex)
    Abstract: I examine the implications of technological change for productivity, real wages and factor shares during the industrial revolution using recently available data. This shows that real GDP per worker grew faster than real consumption earnings but labour’s share of national income changed little as real product wages grew at a similar rate to labour productivity in the medium term. The period saw modest TFP growth which limited the growth both of real wages and of labour productivity. Economists looking for an historical example of rapid labour-saving technological progress having a seriously adverse impact on labour’s share must look elsewhere.
    Keywords: Engels’ pause ; factor shares ; industrial revolution ; labour productivity ; real wages JEL codes: N13 ; O33 ; O47
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Dombi, Akos; Grigoriadis, Theocharis; Zhu, Junbing
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of antiquity on capitalism through the finance-growth nexus. We define antiquity as the length of established statehood (i.e., state history) and agricultural years. We argue that extractive institutions and deeply entrenched interest groups may prevail in societies with ancient roots. The paper offers an in-depth analysis of one particular channel through which extractive institutions may impair economic growth: the finance-growth channel. We propose that in countries with ancient statehood, the financial sector might be captured by powerful economic and political elites leading to a distorted finance-growth relationship. We build a model in which the equilibrium relationship between companies and banks depends on the entrenchment of the economic elites and the length of established statehood. To validate our argument empirically, we run panel-threshold regressions on a global sample between 1970 and 2014. The regression results are supportive and show that financial development - measured by the outstanding amount of credit - is negative for growth in states with ancient institutional origins, while it is positive in relatively younger ones.
    Keywords: antiquity,finance-growth nexus,interest groups,rent-seeking
    JEL: C70 N20 O16 O17 O47
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variationin "excess deaths" and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related "excess deaths" on real wages is large, negative, and shortlived.The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from none to a 15 per cent decline, concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases inmortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.
    Keywords: Returns to capital; Real wages; Spanish flu; Pandemics
    JEL: N30 N10 I00 E32
    Date: 2020–05–21
  13. By: David Guerrero (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL - Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Abstract: This work examines the main determinants of hinterland evolution through a literature review. It explores the possibilities and challenges for inter-regional comparisons, and suggests a tentative common framework. The chapter mainly deals with European issues, though complementing them by integrating studies done on other regions. The literature review covers mainly the last two decades, during which containerization have reached maturity in most world regions. The chapter is organized as follows. The first section introduces some historical elements to understand the specificity of European hinterlands, mostly shaped during the 16th-18th century. The next section presents the current situation of European ports compared with the rest of the world. The third section reviews current determinants of hinterland expansion and shrinkage in various regional contexts. The conclusion discusses the need for pushing further the elaboration of a common framework notwithstanding challenges for inter-regional comparison.
    Date: 2020–01–01
  14. By: Walter, György
    Abstract: Though it seems as if personal bankruptcy regulation was a new legislative solution of the last decades, handling personal bankruptcies has a long history and broad legislative background. The need for implementing a modern regulatory framework for handling personal bankruptcies goes back to the second part of the 20th century, when personal, consumer lending reached a massive volume, and non-performing defaulted portfolios resulted in serious macroeconomic, social, and political impact. Many countries have introduced measures to handle defaulted personal loans, and personal bankruptcy regulations were launched in most European countries during the last 30 years. Though structures are different, the general elements of such systems could be outlined. One of the most disputed principles of the systems is the handling of “fresh start” and the implicated degree of the “leniency” of the systems. In this working paper, I present the brief history, the structural elements of personal bankruptcy regulations, and the building blocks of the fresh start. I also discuss three different legislative solutions: the US, the Austrian, and the Hungarian model. I conclude that there are continuous changes in the systems regarding the handling of fresh start. While the US legislation moves to the less lenient direction, there are measures from European countries to change the laws to more debtor-friendly systems. The Hungarian version was created to follow the strict, less lenient structures in a time when some countries in the region moved towards more lenient systems.
    Keywords: bankruptcy, government policy and regulation, fresh start
    JEL: G18 G33 K35
    Date: 2020–05–14
  15. By: George J. Hall; Thomas J. Sargent
    Abstract: From decompositions of U.S. federal fiscal accounts from 1790 to 1988, we describe differences and patterns in how expenditure surges were financed during 8 wars between 1812 and 1975. We also study two insurrections. We use two benchmark theories of optimal taxation and borrowing to frame a narrative of how government decision makers reasoned and learned about how to manage a common set of forces that bedeviled them during all of the wars, forces that included interest rate risks, unknown durations of expenditure surges, government creditors' debt dilution fears, and temptations to use changes in units of account and inflation to restructure debts. Ex post real rates of return on government securities are a big part of our story.
    JEL: E52 E62 H56 N41 N42
    Date: 2020–05
  16. By: Michaël Assous (Université Lyon 2, CNRS, Triangle); Olivier Bruno (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; Skema Business School); Vincent Carret (Université Lyon 2, CNRS, Triangle); Muriel Dal Pont Legrand (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)
    Abstract: From the outset, expectations were a central part of the first macrodynamic models and early growth theories. In the 1940s, a third line of research emerged which questioned the capacity of an economy to reach full-employment equilibrium. Starting with Alvin Hansen (1938) and culminating with Oskar Lange (1944), the crux of the debate evolved from the existence of full employment equilibrium to analysis of its stability, suggesting an increased role for expectations and finally challenging the economic system's global stability. The present paper traces those debates through the contributions of Hansen, Paul Samuelson and Lange. Using archives materials, we show that while Samuelson's analysis of instability remained implicit, his correspondence reveals that he encouraged Oskar Lange to examine it more carefully. Lange's results are presented in his 1944 Cowles Commission Monograph. We point out that his contribution cannot be understood in isolation either from his exchanges with Samuelson or the way that Keynesian ideas were being interpreted in the United States. The paper finally questions Samuelson's view on instability and expectations.
    Keywords: expectations, (in-)stability, full-employment, wages dynamics, Hansen, Samuelson, Lange
    JEL: B2 B22 B3 D5
    Date: 2020–05
  17. By: Samuel Bazzi; Masyhur Hilmy; Benjamin Marx
    Abstract: Public schooling systems are an essential feature of modern states. These systems often developed at the expense of religious schools, which undertook the bulk of education historically and still cater to large student populations worldwide. This paper examines how Indonesia’s long-standing Islamic school system responded to the construction of 61,000 public elementary schools in the mid-1970s. The policy was designed in part to foster nation building and to curb religious influence in society. We are the first to study the market response to these ideological objectives. Using novel data on Islamic school construction and curriculum, we identify both short-run effects on exposed cohorts as well as dynamic, long-run effects on education markets. While primary enrollment shifted towards state schools, religious education increased on net as Islamic secondary schools absorbed the increased demand for continued education. The Islamic sector not only entered new markets to compete with the state but also increased religious curriculum at newly created schools. Our results suggest that the Islamic sector response increased religiosity at the expense of a secular national identity. Overall, this ideological competition in education undermined the nation-building impacts of mass schooling.
    JEL: H52 I25 N45 P16 Z12
    Date: 2020–05
  18. By: Thomas Peeters (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We analyze 45 years of data from English professional football focusing on the determinants of home advantage. We conclude that seasonal home advantage is substantial and positively related to within-team variation in attendance. Furthermore, despite big cross-league differences in attendance, the average home advantage is about the same across the English leagues. The average home advantage over the period of analysis was 0.63 points and 0.45 goals difference. Finally, we find that over time there is a substantial decline in the home advantage that materializes equally across the leagues.
    Keywords: Professional football, home advantage, managers
    JEL: L83 Z21
    Date: 2020–05–17
  19. By: Simanjuntak, Fredy
    Abstract: The history of the church notes that to this day the Protestant Church is a family whose history is most often divided. Nevertheless the development is quite significant in the present. The process of developing the church resulted in various streams in the church such as Lutheran, Calvinist, Baptist, Methodist, Pentecostal, Charismatic, Evangelical, Adventist, until Jehovah's Witnesses, in the course of the Pentecostal & Charismatic flow so fertile in today's growth. The flow of Pentecostalism and Charismaticism, in its origin and method, has a unique and phenomenal history in Indonesia. The uniqueness of Indonesia's spiritual context is illustrated by rapid growth. The Pentecostal and Charismatic movements felt their influence in various churches around us. Phenomena such as the ability to speak in tongues, healing, and prophecy and aspects of emotional experience that are so prominent in this movement make the public wonder, is it true that all of this is the work of the Holy Spirit? The purpose of this paper is to provide an observation of facts, spiritual life background, the meaning of faith, and understanding of the role of the Holy Spirit adopted by followers of the Pentecost-Charismatic Movement in the context of the challenges of contextualization and syncretism in the relationship between Pentecostal-Charismatic and Christian spirituality in Indonesia. In light of the significant regional diversity in Indonesian religious thought and experience, the scope of this research is limited to the idea of contextualization also limited to its use in the missiological context.
    Date: 2018–09–11
  20. By: Zhangkai Huang; Gordon M. Phillips; Jialun Yang; Yi Zhang
    Abstract: The Cultural Revolution deprived Chinese students of the opportunity to receive higher education for 10 years when colleges and universities were closed from 1966-1976. We examine the human capital cost of this loss of education on subsequent innovation by firms, and ask if it impacted firms more than 30 years later. We examine the innovation of firms with CEOs who turned 18 during the Cultural Revolution, which sharply reduced their chances of attending college. Using multiple approaches to control for selection and endogeneity, including an instrument based on whether the CEO turned 18 during the Cultural Revolution and a regression discontinuity approach, we show that Chinese firms led by CEOs without a college degree spend less on R&D, generate fewer patents, and receive fewer citations to these patents.
    JEL: G3 I23 J24 O31 O32
    Date: 2020–05
  21. By: Boyer, Marcel
    Abstract: I consider as misplaced the current emphasis on income and wealth inequalities as compared to the socially more relevant consumption inequalities, which have been significantly reduced over the last decades and most likely for a much longer period of time. One important factor has been the development of social transfers in kind which add significant resources to the lowest income quintile as compared to the highest quintile. I present the main characteristics of developments of income and wealth inequalities over time (since 1920): The share of the top 1% of earners followed a downward trend until the 1970-79 decade, and an upward trend afterwards, reaching in the 2010-19 decade a level similar to that of the 1920-29 decade. The share of the top 10% of earners followed a similar movement. The same picture is observed for wealth inequality. Similar increases in income inequality over the last four decades are also observed in music and sports.
    Keywords: Income Inequalities, Consumption inequalities
    Date: 2020–05
  22. By: Schulke, Arne
    Abstract: No concept of corporate management has spread as quickly in global business practice as the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) by Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton. This discussion paper examines its origins, theoretical foundation, practical distribution and key points of criticism in the literature a quarter of a century after its inception. The paper is based on a former publication by the same author in the German WISU journal.
    Keywords: Management Accounting,Controlling,Balanced Scorecard,Management Control
    JEL: M10 M11 M40
    Date: 2020
  23. By: James J. Feigenbaum; Price V. Fishback; Keoka Grayson
    Abstract: We explored two measures of inequality that described the full income distribution in cities. One measure is an income gini based on family incomes in 1929 for 33 cities and in 1933 for up to 48 cities in 1933 were spread throughout the country. We also estimated gini coefficients that made use of contract rents for renters and implicit rents for home owners for up to 955 cities throughout the country. We were able to expand to all counties when looking at a top-end inequality measure, the number of taxpayers per family. All three measures varied substantially across the country. We show the correlations between the various measures and also estimate the relationship between the measures and various relief programs developed by governments at all levels during the period.
    JEL: D31 H53 H7 H75 N31
    Date: 2020–05
  24. By: Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski; Alex Trew
    Abstract: The risk-free rate of return has been declining in real terms over millennia. We isolate the role of time preference – or patience – in explaining this decline. Three facts support our approach: experimental evidence finds significant heterogeneity in patience; individual preference characteristics are highly intergenerationally persistent; and, longitudinal data shows that patience is positively related with fertility decisions. Together these suggest we should expect average societal levels of patience to increase over time as the composition of the population shifts towards ever more patient dynasties. We test this mechanism in a Barro-Becker model of fertility with heterogeneous dynasties. We use the present day distribution of patience to calibrate the model. We are able match – both quantitatively and qualitatively – the decline in the risk-free return over the last eight centuries.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous agents, interest rates, patience, selection
    JEL: E21 E43 J11 N30 O11
    Date: 2020–02
  25. By: Barrie, Mohamed Samba
    Abstract: The purpose of the research was the exploration of macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in Sierra Leone for the period, 1980- 2018, and whether there exist an association between the determinants and economic growth is long-term and short-term. The research methodology was quantitative and it was limited to eight mostly macro-fiscal variables and the empirical model employed was the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The findings revealed foreign direct investment was positive in both the short and long run but only statistically significant at the 10% level in the short-run dynamic model. Gross capital formation and population growth were also positive and statistically significant in determining RGDP growth in both the static long-run and dynamic short-run models. Openness to trade has a negative and significant impact on RGDP growth in the short run but insignificant in the long run. On the other hand, real exchange fluctuations, domestic credit rate, private remittances are negative and statistically significant towards RGDP growth. The dummy variable war is significant in both long and short-run but exerted no negative impact on RGDP. The other dummy variable Ebola had the expected negative sign both in the long run and short-run but it is also statistically insignificant. Also, applying the Bounds test Cointegration model, the findings revealed a statistically significant long-run association between economic growth and the specified determinants (F-statistics value= 15.18749, and an upper bound value or I(1) value = 2.08). Furthermore, the error correction model applied to determine the short-run deviation from the long-run had the expected sign, and was statistically insignificant (ECM = -0.131559), indicating convergence towards equilibrium occurred at the rate of 13% in the period under review. However, the research was limited to predominantly macro-fiscal variables, future research must also look at the impact of monetary variables.
    Keywords: Growth determinants,Sierra Leone,ARDL approach,applied econometrics,macro-fiscal variables
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Konrad B. Burchardi; Thomas Chaney; Tarek Alexander Hassan; Lisa Tarquinio; Stephen J. Terry
    Abstract: We show a causal impact of immigration on innovation and dynamism in US counties. To identify the causal impact of immigration, we use 130 years of detailed data on migrations from foreign countries to US counties to isolate quasi-random variation in the ancestry composition of US counties that results purely from the interaction of two historical forces: (i) changes over time in the relative attractiveness of different destinations within the US to the average migrant arriving at the time and (ii) the staggered timing of the arrival of migrants from different origin countries. We then use this plausibly exogenous variation in ancestry composition to predict the total number of migrants flowing into each US county in recent decades. We show four main results. First, immigration has a positive impact on innovation, measured by the patenting of local firms. Second, immigration has a positive impact on measures of local economic dynamism. Third, the positive impact of immigration on innovation percolates over space, but spatial spillovers quickly die out with distance. Fourth, the impact of immigration on innovation is stronger for more educated migrants.
    JEL: J61 O31 O40
    Date: 2020–05

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