nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒05‒04
34 papers chosen by

  1. Karl Helfferich and Rudolf Hilferding on Georg Friedrich Knapp’s State Theory of Money: Monetary Theories during the Hyperinflation of 1923 By Greitens, Jan
  2. Domestic migrations in Spain during its first industrialization, 1840s-1870s By Santiago Caballero, Carlos
  3. Exploring the Emergence of a New Political and Economic Order in 18th century Rajasthan By Malhan, Meera; Saksena, Shalini
  4. A History of Global Capitalism: Feuding Elites and Imperial Expansion By Sambit Bhattacharyya
  5. What determines the capital share over the long run of history? By Bengtsson, Erik; Rubolino, Enrico; Waldenström, Daniel
  6. Technological change and inequality in the very long run By Madsen, Jakob Brøchner; Strulik, Holger
  7. Beyond climate and conflict relationships: new evidence from copulas analysis. By Olivier Damette; Stephane Goutte
  8. A Glimpse of Freedom: Allied Occupation and Political Resistance in East Germany By Luis R. Martinez; Jonas Jessen; Guo Xu
  9. The Diana project: a legacy for research on gender in entrepreneurship By Brush, Candida G.; Greene, Patricia G.; Welter, Friederike
  10. The separation and reunification of Germany: Rethinking a natural experiment interpretation of the enduring effects of communism By Becker, Sascha O.; Mergele, Lukas; Woessmann, L.
  11. Jean-Baptiste Fourier at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute: Harmonic Analysis of Business Cycles By Marco Paulo Vianna Franco; Leonardo Costa Ribeiro; Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque
  12. Intergenerational Equity by Educational Attainments in France By Hippolyte d'Albis; Ikpidi Badji
  13. Intergenerational Equity by Educational Attainments in France By Hippolyte d'Albis; Ikpidi Badji
  14. Football Attendance Over the Centuries By J. James Reade
  15. A New Measure of Foreign Rule Based on Genetic Distance By Dhammika Dharmapala
  16. The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth By Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H.; Prettner, Klaus; Tscheuschner, Paul
  17. Karl Helfferich und Rudolf Hilferding über Georg Friedrich Knapps "Staatliche Theorie des Geldes": Geldtheorien zur Zeit der Hyperinflation von 1923 By Greitens, Jan
  19. Le triomphe de l’injustice. Une lecture libre du livre de Saez et Zucman By Jacques Fontanel
  20. All roads lead to market integration : lessons from a spatial analysis of the wheat market in 18th century Spain By Santiago Caballero, Carlos; López Cermeño, Alexandra
  21. FAMINE AND WEALTH INEQUALITY By Sur, Pramod Kumar; Sasaki, Masaru
  22. Ballots instead of Bullets? The effect of the Voting Rights Act on political violence By Jean Lacroix
  23. La Cooperazione come Strumento di Emancipazione delle Classi Lavoratrici nel Pensiero degli Economisti Inglesi del XIX Secolo By Antonio Zanotti
  24. The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt By Atif Mian; Ludwig Straub; Amir Sufi
  25. Islam and Human Capital in Historical Spain By Francesco Cinnirella; Naghavi,k Alireza; Giovanni Prarolo
  26. Matter and regulation: socio-metabolic and accumulation regimes of French capitalism since 1948 By Cahen-Fourot, Louison; Magalhães, Nelo
  27. On the Influence of Top Journals By Lorenzo Ductor; Sanjeev Goyal; Marco J. van der Leij; Gustavo Nicolas Paez
  28. A myth of soft budget constraints in socialist economies By Popov, Vladimir
  29. Cliometrics of Climate Change: A Natural Experiment on the Little Ice Age. By Olivier DAMETTE; Claude DIEBOLT; Stephane GOUTTE; Umberto TRIACCA
  30. Currency misalignments and exchange rate regimes in Latin American countries: a trade-off issue. By Jorge Carrera; Blaise Gnimassoun; Valérie Mignon; Romain Restout
  31. Risk management in tradition agriculture: intercropping in Italian wine production By Martínelli Lasheras, Pablo; Federico, Giovanni
  32. Recordando la persona y la obra de J. H. G. Olivera By Juan Carlos de Pablo
  33. Evaluating the Success of President Johnson's War on Poverty: Revisiting the Historical Record Using a Full-Income Poverty Measure By Richard V. Burkhauser; Kevin C. Corinth; James Elwell; Jeff Larrimore
  34. L’idée de régulation dans les sciences : hommage à l’épistémologue Jean Piaget By Claude Diebolt

  1. By: Greitens, Jan
    Abstract: The monetary ideas of Georg Friedrich Knapp have recently resurfaced in the context of the Modern Monetary Theory whose representatives see themselves in his tradition. The historical debate on Knapp's "State Theory of Money," which divided opinion when it was first published in 1905 as well as during the period of German inflation that peaked in 1923, is therefore of particular interest. Knapp describes money largely from a legal perspective, labelling it a "creature of the legal order". The principle "Mark = Mark" reflects his nominalistic approach. However, he opposed monetary state financing, and favoured balanced governmental budgets. One of his students, Karl Helfferich, was the most influential monetary theorist in the German Reich during the first decades of the 20th century. In defining Knapp's view as an ultimate ideal that might be realised at some point, and his own metallist approach as a practical necessity, he tries to reconcile his teacher's nominalistic theory on the one hand with his own gold currency-principles on the other.The monetary theory of the Marxist Rudolf Hilferding was eclectic, but he moved closer to a nominalistic approach after studying Knapp's theory. During inflation, Helfferich, a representative of the Balance of Payments Theory, and Hilferding, more of the Quantity Theory of Money, also held opposing views in the public debate on the monetary reforms required. The relationship between the three authors was highly complex. While Helfferich and Knapp were personally close, they were far apart in their theories although Helfferich tried to conceal this fact. Hilferding and Helfferich, meanwhile, held similar views on some practical points, such as the necessity of a gold-based currency, but clashed vehemently on a personal level. (English version of: Karl Helfferich und Rudolf Hilferding über Georg Friedrich Knapps "Staatliche Theorie des Geldes": Geldtheorien zur Zeit der Hyperinflation von 1923“, IBF Paper Series 04-19, 928/)
    Keywords: Helfferich,Hilferding,Knapp,State Theory of Money,Hyperinflation,Modern Monetary Theory
    JEL: B31 E31 N14
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Santiago Caballero, Carlos
    Abstract: Using an original microeconomic database with information for around 200,000 individuals, this paper creates new estimates of internal migrations in Spain in a key moment of its economic history. Our analysis shows that internal migrations were not a linear process including both periods of stagnation and also rapid growth, and that the 1850s were a decade of surprising high mobility in the absence of modern transportation. We also conclude that the rise in mobility was geographically asymmetrical with traditional urban centers losing ground against the rise of Madrid and Barcelona. The modernization of the country also had significant social impacts with the migratory gender gap being significantly reduced prior to 1870. An analysis of the determinants of internal migrations suggests that traditional push and pull factors described by the literature in the early twentieth century seem to be also behind the early migrations of the mid nineteenth century.
    Keywords: Industrialisation; Gender Gap; Spain; Migrations
    JEL: O14 R23 N94 N33
    Date: 2020–04–28
  3. By: Malhan, Meera; Saksena, Shalini
    Abstract: The collapse of the Mughal Empire in Rajasthan during the first half of the 18th century initiated important reconfigurations in its polity, society and economy. Emergence of regional political order and a new notion of commercialisation widened the sphere of engagements of merchants and traders and this had enduring consequences for the economy of Rajasthan. This paper traces the trajectory of the structural changes that ensued from the political disintegration of the Mughal order and emergence of local princely governance. Specifically it looks at i) the emergence of the non-peasant sector in agriculture, ii) the rise of a cross-caste mercantile class in the state and iii) change in commercial relationships under the new governance between the principalities, traders, artisans and the merchants. The research is based on insights from rich archival primary sources from the Rajasthan State Archives in Bikaner, focusing primarily on careful and extensive examination of the Bahis, to ascertain the changes in the village structure that took place as the regional gentry tried to combat the political and financial crisis that it faced in the early 18th century. This study finds ample evidence of thriving trade and growing commercialisation and monetisation in the regional economy, resulting in economic prosperity in most parts of Rajasthan. The study thus establishes the fact that the so called 'dark age' era during the 18th century, characterised by the process of economic and social decay, was not universal.
    Keywords: Regional History, Economic Transitions, Financial Institutions, Trade History, Imperialism.
    JEL: N25 N45 N75 N95
    Date: 2020–04–02
  4. By: Sambit Bhattacharyya (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: The global order is in a state of flux. The established post-cold war rules of commerce are unravelling. Trade wars and threats of unilateral trade restrictions are becoming common practice when it comes to relations between great power economies. Therefore, we are witnessing the gradual demise of the old politico-economic order but the new is yet to be born. Witnessing the rapidly changing landscape of international relations deeply influenced my desire to catalogue the events and find an explanation. The uncanny similarity between the past and the present also encouraged me to search for an explanation that can stand the test of time. This quest of analyzing economic and political history from a long run perspective lies at the heart of this book. Without running the risk of oversimplification, the book emphasizes the role of economic factors in great power conflict, hot or cold. Therefore, a common error would be to view this as another attempt of offering unidimensional explanation to a multidimensional and complex phenomenon. It is anything but. As the creator of this ambitious project, I am acutely aware that the trajectory of human history is the resultant vector of a combination of factors many of which are extremely complex. Therefore, caution is exercised wherever possible to limit the risk of oversimplification while interpreting historical events. Nevertheless, it is perhaps prudent to acknowledge right at the outset that omissions are inevitable. They are in no way deliberate.
    Keywords: economic history
    JEL: N10
    Date: 2020–04
  5. By: Bengtsson, Erik; Rubolino, Enrico; Waldenström, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of the labor-capital split in national income for 20 countries since the late 1800s. Our main identification strategy focuses on unique historical quasi-experimental events: i) the introduction of universal suffrage, ii) close election wins of left-wing governments, iii) decolonization, iv) unionization shocks, and v) wars. We also run instrumented panel regressions. Our findings show that the capital share decreased in response to radical institutional and political shifts, such as the introduction of universal suffrage in the early 1900s, the undoing of colonialism and the implementation of redistributive policies during the post-war period. By contrast, the capital share increased following the erosion of trade unionism since the 1980s. Wars, despite destroying the capital stock, generated windfall profits that increased the capital share.
    Date: 2020–04–30
  6. By: Madsen, Jakob Brøchner; Strulik, Holger
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the impact of technological change on inequalityin the presence of a landed elite using a standard unified growth model. We measure inequality by the ratio between land rent and wages and show that, before the onset of the fertility transition, technological progress increased inequality directly through land-biased technological change and indirectly through increasing population growth. Thefertility transition and the child quantity-quality trade-off eventually disabled the Malthusian mechanism, and technological progress triggered education and benefited workers. If the elasticity of substitution between land and labor is sufficiently high, the rent-wage ratio declines such that inequality is hump-shaped in the very long run. We use the publication of new farming book titles as a measure of technological progress in agriculture, and provide evidence for technology-driven inequality in Britain between 1525 and 1895. We confirm these results for a panel of European countries over the period 1265-1850 using agricultural productivity as a measure of technology. Finally, using patents in the period 1800-1980, we find a technology-driven inequality reversal around the onset of the fertility transition.
    Keywords: nequality,Malthus,Unified Growth Theory,Agriculture,Human Capital
    JEL: O40 O30 N30 N50 J10 I25
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Olivier Damette; Stephane Goutte
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the new climate-society literature (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016) by analysing the role of climate in conflicts over the historical period from 1500 to 1800, in the vein of the recent literature initiated by Tol and Wagner (2010) and Burke and Hsiang (2014). As far as we know, this study is the first to apply copulas and time-varying copula analysis to climate-economics literature and to the analysis of climate and conflicts in a historical time series context. Effects of temperatures, precipitation and ENSO/NAO teleconnection on conflicts were investigated. Copula analysis enabled us to identify a positive dependence between temperatures and conflicts, and negative or positive dependences between anomalous precipitation and conflicts, by explicitly focusing on the joint marginal distribution of our variables. Using a time-varying approach, we were also able to precisely identify the periods/regimes during which the link between climate and conflict was genuinely active and then check the robustness of previous literature, such as Zhang et al. (2006, 2007, 2011).
    Keywords: Climate change, Conflicts, Social Disturbances, Global Crisis, Copulas.
    JEL: C33 O40 Q54
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Luis R. Martinez; Jonas Jessen; Guo Xu
    Abstract: This paper studies costly political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered in May 1945, 40% of the designated Soviet occupation zone was initially captured by the western Allied Expeditionary Force. This occupation was short-lived: Soviet forces took over after less than two months and installed an authoritarian regime in what became the German Democratic Republic (GDR). We exploit the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within the GDR to show that areas briefly under Allied occupation had higher incidence of protests during the only major episode of political unrest in the GDR before its demise in 1989 - the East German Uprising of 1953. These areas also exhibited lower regime support during the last free elections in 1946. We argue that even a “glimpse of freedom” can foster civilian opposition to dictatorship.
    Keywords: East Germany, political resistance, protest, autocracy, spatial RDD, World War II
    JEL: F51 H10 N44 P20
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Brush, Candida G.; Greene, Patricia G.; Welter, Friederike
    Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of this article is to provide a brief history of the evolution of the Diana Project and the Diana International Research Conference. We examine the impact of the publications, conferences and research contributions; and consider key factors in the success of this collaborative research organization. We discuss the ongoing legacy, suggesting ways to extend this into the future. Design/Methodology/Approach: Historical narrative and citation analysis Findings: The Diana Project was founded by five women professors in 1999 to with the purpose of investigating women's access to growth capital. Following a series of academic articles, and numerous presentations, the first Diana International Conference was held in Stockholm, Sweden. At this convening, 20 scholars from 13 countries shared their knowledge of women's entrepreneurship, venture creation and growth, culminating in the first volume of the Diana Book Series. Since then, 14 international conferences have been held, resulting in 10 special issues of top academic journals, and 11 books. More than 600 scholars have attended or participate in Diana conferences or publications. [...]
    Keywords: gender,women's entrepreneurship,Diana Project,venture capital,collaborative research
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Becker, Sascha O.; Mergele, Lukas; Woessmann, L.
    Abstract: German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of communism. We show in three steps that the populations in East and West Germany were far from being randomly selected treatment and control groups. First, the later border is already visible in many socio-economic characteristics in pre-World War II data. Second, World War II and the subsequent occupying forces affected East and West differently. Third, a selective fifth of the population fled from East to West Germany before the building of the Wall in 1961. In light of our findings, we propose a more cautious interpretation of the extensive literature on the enduring effects of communist systems on economic outcomes, political preferences, cultural traits, and gender roles.
    JEL: D72 H11 P26 P36 N44
    Date: 2020–03–12
  11. By: Marco Paulo Vianna Franco (Fundação João Pinheiro); Leonardo Costa Ribeiro (Cedeplar-UFMG); Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: This article proposes a historical assessment of harmonic analysis of business cycles. For that purpose, it presents Jean-Baptiste Fourier’s main idea and addresses its reception at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute, mediated by Henry L. Moore and Albert L. Vainshtein, which led to Eugen Slutsky’s well-known 1927 article on the random causes of cyclical processes. In addition, more recent approaches to business cycles, such as real business cycle theory and spectral analysis, are traced back to Fourier and key figures working on economic applications of harmonic analysis in the first decades of the 20th century. Revolving around its ability to both decompose and build cycles, this tool still presents an untapped potential for contemporary analyses of long-term economic dynamics. Hence, it is worthwhile to determine Fourier’s role in the history of economic thought, what necessarily leads to the long-lasting contributions of the creative institute headed by Nikolai Kondratiev.
    Keywords: harmonic analysis; business cycles; Fourier transform; spectral analysis; Eugen Slutsky
    JEL: B16 B23 C02 E32
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ikpidi Badji (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article analyses the development of inequalities across ages and generations in France using a pseudo-panel developed from the successive waves of the French Household Expenditure Survey that took place between 1979 and 2011. The standard of living of individuals, evaluated using individualized disposable income or private consumption, including housing expenditure and imputed rent, is decomposed by sex and educational attainment. The estimation of Age-Period-Cohort models reveal that men with lower education attainments who were born after 1950 experienced a significant decline in disposable income with respect to those who were born between 1918 and 1950. Conversely, when the whole population of men is considered, no decline in disposable income is observed. The evolution is rather different for women: those with lower education attainments did not experienced any decline whereas the whole population of women benefitted from a strong increase in disposable income across generations.
    Keywords: JEL Codes: Keywords: Intergenerational Equity,Age-Period-Cohort models,Qualifications
    Date: 2020–04
  13. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ikpidi Badji (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article analyses the development of inequalities across ages and generations in France using a pseudo-panel developed from the successive waves of the French Household Expenditure Survey that took place between 1979 and 2011. The standard of living of individuals, evaluated using individualized disposable income or private consumption, including housing expenditure and imputed rent, is decomposed by sex and educational attainment. The estimation of Age-Period-Cohort models reveal that men with lower education attainments who were born after 1950 experienced a significant decline in disposable income with respect to those who were born between 1918 and 1950. Conversely, when the whole population of men is considered, no decline in disposable income is observed. The evolution is rather different for women: those with lower education attainments did not experienced any decline whereas the whole population of women benefitted from a strong increase in disposable income across generations.
    Keywords: JEL Codes: Keywords: Intergenerational Equity,Age-Period-Cohort models,Qualifications
    Date: 2020–04
  14. By: J. James Reade (Department of Economics, University of Reading)
    Abstract: Attendance patterns at professional football matches in England and Wales over three centuries are analysed, with particular attention paid to the loyalty, or persistence, of spectators or fans at different football clubs over different periods of time. We find that about half of an attendance can be attributed to loyalty, and that patterns of loyalty have evolved considerably over time, and vary across regions within England and Wales, although there is little significant team-by-team difference. We also find that fans are not necessarily concerned about how balanced matches are expected to be, and that they are motivated by their own team's quality, and the geographic proximity of the visiting team.
    Keywords: Economic History, Consumption, Sport Economics
    JEL: N0 E21 Z0
    Date: 2020–04–21
  15. By: Dhammika Dharmapala
    Abstract: The consequences for countries of past foreign rule are the subject of a vast literature across history and the social sciences. This paper constructs a novel measure of past foreign (or minority) rule - the genetic distance of a country’s ruling elite in the year 1900 from the country’s ethnic majority - by mapping historical information on these groups to existing data on bilateral genetic distances between countries and populations. This generates an “elite-population genetic distance” in 1900 (EPGD_1900) for each of 228 present-day countries and territories. While this continuous measure is positively correlated with existing dichotomous measures of foreign rule, it captures an additional dimension of variation absent from the existing measures. The paper documents robust conditional correlations between EPGD_1900 and current income levels, and between EPGD_1900 and current fiscal capacity (controlling for various relevant country characteristics, existing measures of foreign rule, the genetic distance of a country’s ethnic majority from that of the UK, and continent fixed effects). In particular, both current GDP per capita and tax revenue as a percentage of GDP are substantially lower for countries and territories with higher EPGD_1900. While these relationships may be attributable to unobserved and persistent variation in state-building capabilities across societies, the results are robust to controlling for a widely-used index of state antiquity that measures the history of state-building capacity.
    Keywords: foreign rule, fiscal capacity, economic development
    JEL: O10 H20
    Date: 2020
  16. By: Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H.; Prettner, Klaus; Tscheuschner, Paul
    Abstract: We propose a Unified Growth model that analyzes the role of the Scienti fic Revolution in the takeoff to sustained modern economic growth. Basic scientific knowledge is a necessary input in the production of applied knowledge, which, in turn, fuels productivity growth and leads to rising incomes. Eventually, rising incomes instigate a fertility transition and a takeoff of educational investments and human capital accumulation. In regions where scientific inquiry is severely constrained (for religious reasons or because of oppressive rulers), the takeoff to modern growth is delayed or might not occur at all. The novel mechanism that we propose for the latent transition towards the takeoff could contribute to our understanding of why sustained growth emerged first in Europe.
    Keywords: Scientific Revolution,Industrial Revolution,Basic Science,Applied Science,Takeoff to Sustained Growth,Unified Growth Theory
    JEL: O11 O31 O33 O41
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Greitens, Jan
    JEL: B31 E31 N14
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Christian Saad (LC2S - Laboratoire caribéen de sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UA - Université des Antilles)
    Abstract: Le positionnement des économistes classiques (comme Adam Smith ou Jean Baptiste Say par exemple) face à l'esclavage avait déjà fait l'objet de nombreux travaux. A l'opposé, la pensée des économistes socialistes utopistes ou scientifiques face à cette question de l'esclavage, restait explicitement à réaliser. Dans un autre colloque, la pensée de Marx et d'Engels sur cette question de l'esclavage a déjà été présenté. Cependant afin d'avoir une vision plus globale de la pensée socialiste du XIXème siècle, la pensée des économistes utopiques restait à défricher et approfondir. L'importance de l'économie dans la réflexion sur l'esclavage est absolument centrale car c'est précisément au nom d'arguments d'efficacité économique que s'est installée la traite et c'est aussi comme nous le verrons, toujours au nom de cette soi disant efficacité économique que de nombreux économistes (y compris libéraux) préconisèrent l'abolition d'un système qui devenait fondamentalement ruineux et inefficace sur le plan de la rationalité économique. Que pensaient ces économistes socialistes utopiques d'un mouvement et d'un système esclavagiste encore existant de leur vivant ? Se sont ils contentés d'avoir un simple positionnement abolitionniste eu égard à leur humanisme et à leur philanthropie ? Ou ont-ils véritablement analysé théoriquement l'esclavage comme phénomène économiquement essentiel à leurs yeux ? Ont-ils considéré ou construit une analogie forte entre l'esclavage colonial et la situation des prolétaires d'Europe ou ont-ils vu une différence de nature entre ces deux phénomènes historiques ?
    Date: 2020–04–17
  19. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Saez and Zucman's book on the triumph of injustice is of great interest. First, because it presents complex and sometimes even secret statistical analyses that they have managed to collect and organize in a rigorous way for the United States. Secondly, it highlights the increase in inequality due to tax evasion and optimization. Finally, they show the unjustified nature of these differences in income and wealth, which they consider to be a serious threat to democracy. Proposals, mainly tax and international law proposals are put forward that are relatively simple and redress the greatest injustices. Heavily indebted states suffer from the willingness of large multinational firms to evade taxes, with the risk of a dominant oligarchy establishing a plutocracy. It must be added that the system of economic crises leads to the rise of a fundamental violence that can call into question all the collective values that form the basis of a nation and an economic system.
    Abstract: Le livre de Saez et Zucman sur le triomphe de l'injustice présente un grand intérêt. D'abord, car il présente des analyses statistiques complexes et parfois même secrètes qu'ils ont réussi à recueillir et à organiser de manière rigoureuse pour les Etats-Unis. Ensuite, il met en évidence l'accroissement des inégalités, du fait de l'évasion et de l'optimisation fiscale. Enfin, ils témoignent du caractère injustifié de ces différences de revenus et de patrimoines qu'ils considèrent constituer une menace grave contre la démocratie. Des propositions, principalement fiscales et de droit international, sont proposées, relativement simples et réparatrices des plus grandes injustices. Les Etats fortement endettés souffrent de cette volonté des grandes firmes multinationales à échapper à l'impôt, avec le risque d'une oligarchie dominante instituant une ploutocratie. Il faut ajouter que le système de crises économiques conduit à l'essor d'une violence de fond qui peut remettre en cause toutes les valeurs collectives qui fondent une Nation et un système économique.
    Keywords: Injustice,taxation,inequalities,tax havens,multinational firms,democracy,oligarchy,collective goods,fiscalité,inégalités,paradis fiscaux,firmes multinationals,démocratie,oligarchie,biens collectifs
    Date: 2020–03–02
  20. By: Santiago Caballero, Carlos; López Cermeño, Alexandra
    Abstract: This paper uses newly collected data from a large-scale census (Catastro de la Ensenada) to investigate the scale and causes of market integration in eighteenth century Spain. We use wheat prices observed in more than 5,200 municipalities to analyse the local spatial dependence of prices. We detect several regional clusters in the centre and coasts but find that these were not integrated with each other. We then investigate the first nature, second nature, and demand side determinants of these clusters and find that although geographical constrains like terrain roughness play a negatively significant role, the transportation network allowed connected municipalities to alleviate such obstacles. Our results suggest that unfavourable geographical conditions can be overcome by investments in transportation infrastructures.
    Keywords: Geography; Prices; Grain Markets; Market Integration; Early Modern
    Date: 2020–04–28
  21. By: Sur, Pramod Kumar; Sasaki, Masaru
    Abstract: Discussions around the growing difference in wealth, as well as its distribution, has gained prominent attention recently. What are the possible causes that could potentially contribute to the difference in wealth and its distribution? In this paper, we propose a novel reason, i.e., famine. We combine contemporary individual-level wealth data with historical data on famine severity in China and show that exposure to famine has a negative effect on the wealth of individuals born during this period. We further pursue a number of strategies to determine whether the relation we uncover is, in fact, causal.
    Keywords: Wealth Distribution, Inequality, Famine, China, D31, O15, N35
    Date: 2020–03
  22. By: Jean Lacroix
    Abstract: The extension of voting rights epitomizes the construction of modern democracies. This paper empirically investigates the effect of such an enfranchisement on political violence in the context of the US Voting Rights Act (VRA - 1965). The Act forbade discrimination in voting. Its coverage formula generated both geographic and temporal local discontinuities in its application. The empirical strategy takes advantage of these features by comparing the evolution of political violence in geographically close covered and non-covered counties. Difference-in- differences estimates indicate that the VRA coverage halved the incidence and the onset of political violence. Alternative approaches such as geographic matching or geographic discontinuity design reach the same results whereas multiple tests validate the empirical strategy. Extensions also show that redistribution and electoral outcomes do not explain these dynamics. Instead, I report empirical evidence suggesting that voting became the new institutionalized way to state political preferences. Indeed, the VRA mostly decreased pre-elections and small- scale strategic disruptive violence and not complements to voting such as larger-scale protests turning violent.
    Keywords: Political violence; Enfranchisement; Civil rights movement
    JEL: D74 N44 H89
    Date: 2020–04–13
  23. By: Antonio Zanotti
    Abstract: Il tema della cooperazione fu largamente discusso fra gli economisti del XIX secolo. La ricostruzione di questo dibattito è complessa perché lo stesso concetto di cooperazione subí profonde modificazioni. Inizialmente la parola “cooperazione†fu usata come contrario di “concorrenza†, ritenuta dai socialisti utopisti la causa della povertà dei lavoratori. La cooperazione era quindi intesa come una comunità organizzata sulla base di valori comuni condivisi, fra cui la proprietà stessa dei mezzi di produzione. A fine secolo, “cooperazione†significava invece una forma specifica di proprietà dell’impresa, diversa da quella basata sulla proprietà del capitale. I protagonisti di questa ricerca sono Ricardo, Mill e Marshall che rappresentano questa evoluzione del concetto stesso di cooperazione. Ricardo era focalizzato sul concetto di cooperazione elaborato da Owen all’inizio del secolo. Mill rappresenta la svolta, il passaggio dal comunitarismo, che egli identificava col Socialismo, alla nascita delle prime esperienze di cooperative di lavoro che si diffusero in Francia dalla rivoluzione del 1848. Marshall, infine, ebbe come quadro di riferimento un movimento in crescita, inserito nel contesto dell’economia capitalistica, ma che aveva preso una nuova strada: la cooperazione come unione di consumatori e non di lavoratori. Questi studi partivano dalla medesima domanda: può la cooperazione essere strumento di emancipazione delle classi lavoratrici? Per motivi ancora poco indagati, questa domanda perse consistenza dal XX secolo che segnò anche un forte declino degli studi sulla cooperazione. Solo recentemente, con la crisi scoppiata nel 2007, sembra essersi riproposto questa domanda, ma in modo assai timido.
    Keywords: Cooperative movement, Workers cooperatives, Working classes
    JEL: B15 J54 L21
    Date: 2019
  24. By: Atif Mian; Ludwig Straub; Amir Sufi
    Abstract: Rising income inequality since the 1980s in the United States has generated a substantial increase in saving by the top of the income distribution, which we call the saving glut of the rich. The saving glut of the rich has been as large as the global saving glut, and it has not been associated with an increase in investment. Instead, the saving glut of the rich has been linked to the substantial dissaving and large accumulation of debt by the non-rich. Analysis using variation across states shows that the rise in top income shares can explain almost all of the accumulation of household debt held as a financial asset by the household sector. Since the Great Recession, the saving glut of the rich has been financing government deficits to a greater degree.
    Keywords: inequality, saving glut, household debt, unveiling
    JEL: E21 E44 D31
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Francesco Cinnirella; Naghavi,k Alireza; Giovanni Prarolo
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of Muslim rule on human capital development. Using a unique novel dataset containing yearly data on Muslim presence in the period 711-1492 and literacy rate in 1900 for about 7500 municipalities in Spain, we estimate the local impact of the length of Muslim rule in the medieval period on literacy rate. Our findings reveal a very robust negative relationship between length of Muslim rule and levels of human capital. This result is robust to the inclusion of other possible confounding factors such as the Reconquista and the Inquisition. We argue that the characteristics of Islamic law discouraged the formation of a strong merchant class and subsequently impeded the development of forms of local self-government. This translated into lower levels of human capital for regions longer under Muslim rule. Indeed, panel estimates on a sample of cities provide evidence that locations under Muslim domination missed out on the critical junctures of institutional changes which led to a stagnation in the accumulation of human capital.
    Keywords: muslim rule, education, literacy, self-government, merchant class, Spain
    JEL: H75 I25 N33 O10 O30 Z12
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Cahen-Fourot, Louison; Magalhães, Nelo
    Abstract: This paper aims at integrating macroeconomic and institutional analyses of long run dynamics of capitalism with material flow analysis. We investigate the links between accumulation and socio-metabolic regimes by studying French capitalism from a material perspective since 1948. We characterize its social metabolism both in production- and consumption-based approaches. We show that the periodization of accumulation regimes in terms of Fordism and Neoliberalism translates into material terms. The offshore materiality of Neoliberalism partly substitutes for and partly complements the more domestic materiality inherited from Fordism. The transition phase between the two socio-metabolic regimes clearly corresponds to the emergence of the offshoring-financialization nexus of French capitalism indicating the shift from the fordist accumulation regime to the neoliberal accumulation regime. Acknowledging that socio-metabolic regimes have their own logic, we highlight strong inter-linkages between accumulation and material dynamics and discuss how materials may be instrumental in shaping accumulation regimes. This work therefore illustrates the relevance of combining institutional macroeconomics with methods and approaches derived from Ecological Economics.
    Keywords: Material Flow Analysis; Material footprint; Socio-metabolic regime; Financialization; Offshoring; Accumulation regime
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Lorenzo Ductor (University of Granada); Sanjeev Goyal (Columbia University); Marco J. van der Leij (University of Amsterdam); Gustavo Nicolas Paez (Myanmar Development Institute)
    Abstract: We study the evolution of the influence of journals over the period 1970-2017. In the early 1970's, a number of journals had similar influence, but by 1995, the `Top 5' journals, QJE, AER, RES, Econometrica, and JPE, had acquired a major lead. This dominance has remained more or less unchanged since 1995. To place these developments in a broader context, we also study trends in sociology. The trends there have gone the other way; the field journals rose in influence, relative to the Top General journals. A model of journals as platforms is developed to understand these trends across time and across disciplines.
    Keywords: research impact, Top 5 journals, academic publishing, citations
    JEL: A14 D85
    Date: 2020–04–19
  28. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: Most of the time the budget constraints in the socialist economies were harder than in developing countries and no less hard than in developed countries. The soft budget constraints (SBC) in socialist economies were not pervasive, as most authors believe, but selective, i.e. involved subsidization of some enterprises/industries at the expense of the other. This type of selective subsidization is a classic case of industrial policy: it may be good or bad, leading to success (China, Vietnam) or failure (USSR, Eastern Europe), but cannot be regarded as an intrinsic feature of the socialist centrally planned economy and an example of pervasive SBC. Pervasive SBC should be associated with permanent government budget deficit, debt accumulation, high inflation and other forms of macroeconomic populism. In the Soviet Union in the post-war period (after the monetary reform of 1947 and until the Gorbachev financial and monetary expansion that started in 1987) budget deficit and debt were very low, open and hidden inflation was less than several percent a year – a better record than in most Western countries. But in the 1990s in Russia, other former Soviet republics and most East European countries budget constraints were weakened dramatically and inflation increased to hundreds and thousands percent a year. SBC is just one type of this populist macroeconomic policy that was rare in socialist countries, but is found in abundance in many developing countries (especially Latin America and Sub-Sahara Africa) and transition economies (especially FSU states).
    Keywords: Soft budget constraints, socialist economies, industrial policy
    JEL: H60 O25 P34 P35 P40 P43
    Date: 2020–04–21
  29. By: Olivier DAMETTE; Claude DIEBOLT; Stephane GOUTTE; Umberto TRIACCA
    Abstract: This paper presents the findings of climate change impact on a widespread human crisis due to a natural occurrence, focusing on the so-called Little Ice Age period. The study is based on new non-linear econometrics tools. First, we reassessed the existence of a significant cooling period using outliers and structural break tests and a nonlinear Markov Switching with Levy process (MS Levy) methodology. We found evidence of the existence of such a period between 1560-1660 and 1675-1700. In addition, we showed that NAO teleconnection was probably one of the causes of this climate change. We then performed nonlinear econometrics and causality tests to reassess the links between climate shock and macroeconomic indicators. While the causal relationship between temperature and agricultural output (yields, production, price) is strongly robust, the association between climate and GDP identified by the MS Levy model does not reveal a clear causality link. Although the MS Levy approach is not relevant in this case, the causality tests indicate that social disturbance might also have been triggered by climate change, confirming the view of Parker (2013). These findings should inform current public policies, especially with regard to the strong capacity of climate to disrupt social and economic stability.
    Keywords: Little Ice Age, climate change, non-linear econometrics, Markov Switching Levy, Causality, Economic cycles, Social crisis.
    JEL: C53 E32 F00 Q00
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Jorge Carrera; Blaise Gnimassoun; Valérie Mignon; Romain Restout
    Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth empirical investigation on the impact of the exchange rate regime (ERR) on real currency misalignments in a panel of 17 Latin American countries over the 1970-2016 period. We consider explicitly the two dimensions of misalignments, size and persistence, and evaluate four different ERR classifications. We also pay attention to cross-sectional dependencies across countries that appear to be important in Latin America, and provide several robustness checks. Our main findings show that, although fixed ERR perform well in limiting the size of misalignments—and in reducing inflation and fiscal deficit—the disequilibria are more persistent. On the contrary, allowing for more flexibility reduces persistence but increases the size of misalignments. Overall, we show that Latin American countries face a crucial trade-off when they have to choose their ERR.
    Keywords: Latin American countries; Exchange rate regimes; Currency misalignments.
    JEL: F31 C23 E42
    Date: 2020
  31. By: Martínelli Lasheras, Pablo; Federico, Giovanni
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causes of the traditional practice of intercropping &- i.e., of scattering vines across fields rather than concentrating them in specialized vineyards. We interpret it as a risk management strategy based on spatial diversification, which entailed transportation costs. We test our model with data for 1930s Italy, where intercropping was widely but unevenly diffused. We show that its adoption was positively related to the pattern of scattered dwellings which dated back to the late Middle Ages and reduced transportation costs to individual plots.
    Keywords: Traditional Agriculture; Risk Management; Diversification; Intercropping
    JEL: R14 Q12 O13 N64 N63 L23
    Date: 2020–04–28
  32. By: Juan Carlos de Pablo
    Abstract: Las autoridades de Económica me solicitaron que preparara un comentario bibliográfico sobre un par de libros publicados en honor a Julio Hipólito Guillermo Olivera (1929-2016), encargo que acepté con gusto. Pero no resisto la tentación de referirme primero a su persona, y al impacto que su labor multifacética produjo entre los economistas argentinos.
    Date: 2020–03
  33. By: Richard V. Burkhauser; Kevin C. Corinth; James Elwell; Jeff Larrimore
    Abstract: We evaluate progress in President's Johnson's War on Poverty. We do so relative to the scientifically arbitrary but policy relevant 20 percent baseline poverty rate he established for 1963. No existing poverty measure fully captures poverty reductions based on the standard that President Johnson set. To fill this gap, we develop a Full-income Poverty Measure with thresholds set to match the 1963 Official Poverty Rate. We include cash income, taxes, and major in-kind transfers and update poverty thresholds for inflation annually. While the Official Poverty Rate fell from 19.5 percent in 1963 to 12.3 percent in 2017, our Full-income Poverty Rate based on President Johnson's standards fell from 19.5 percent to 2.3 percent over that period. Today, almost all Americans have income above the inflation-adjusted thresholds established in the 1960s. Although expectations for minimum living standards evolve, this suggests substantial progress combatting absolute poverty since the War on Poverty began.
    Keywords: Tax credits; In-kind transfers; Poverty; Income measurement
    JEL: D31 H24 I32 J30
    Date: 2020–01–31
  34. By: Claude Diebolt (University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France)
    Date: 2020

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.