nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒04‒13
25 papers chosen by

  1. Is the most unproductive firm the foundation of the most efficient economy? Penrosian learning confronts the Neoclassical fallacy By William, Lazonick
  2. The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity By Robert J. Barro; José F. Ursúa; Joanna Weng
  3. Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu By Sergio Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner
  4. The Great Convergence? Gender and Unpaid Work in Europe and the United States By Ariane Pailhé; Anne Solaz; Maria Stanfors
  5. The Effect of Leader’s Visits on Foreign Aid By Kodila-Tedika, Oasis; Khalifa, Sherif
  6. International Transactions: Real Trade and Factor Flows between 1700 and 1870 By Wolfgang Keller; Markus Lampe; Carol H. Shiue
  7. Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics By Òscar Jordà; Sanjay R. Singh; Alan M. Taylor
  8. The Welfare State and Liberal Democracy - A Political Economy Approach By Heise, Arne; Serfraz Khan, Ayesha
  9. Harry Johnson’s “Case for Flexible Exchange Rates” – 50 Years Later By Maurice Obstfeld
  10. Migration-prone and migration-averse places. Path dependence in long-term migration to the US By Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Viola von Berlepsch
  11. Immigration History, Entry Jobs, and the Labor Market Integration of Immigrants By Ansala, Laura; Aslund, Olof; Sarvimäki, Matti
  12. North Korea: The last transition economy? By Vincent Koen; Jinwoan Beom
  13. La construction sociale du chiffre By Pierre Gervais
  14. South Australia’s Employment Relief Program for Assisted Immigrants: Promises and Reality, 1838-1843 By Edwyna Harris; Sumner La Croix
  15. Estimating Long-Run Incarceration Rates for Australia, Canada, England & Wales, New Zealand and the United States By Leigh, Andrew
  16. The Deep Imprint of Roman Sandals: Evidence of Long-lasting Effects of Roman Rule on Personality, Economic Performance, and Well-Being in Germany By Michael Fritsch; Martin Obschonka; Fabian Wahl; Michael Wyrwich
  17. The Missing Men World War I and Female Labor Force Participation By Jörn Boehnke; Victor Gay
  18. The Second Convict Age: Explaining the Return of Mass Imprisonment in Australia By Leigh, Andrew
  19. The Legacy of the Missing Men The Long-Run Impact of World War I on Female Labor Force Participation By Victor Gay
  20. International Trade: Smarten up to talk the talk By Haas, Levi; Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R.
  21. Les ordonnances royales de l’Ancien Régime comme source pour la lexicographie : l’Ordonnance du Roy sur le reglement, police & forme de payement de sa gendarmerie. (1584, Paris, chez Federic Morel). Transcription et étude lexicale. By Volker Mecking
  22. The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism By Becker, Sascha O.; Mergele, Lukas; Woessmann, Ludger
  23. Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Bank of Japan's Views Summarized Based on the Archives and Other Materials By Masanao Itoh; Yasuko Morita; Mari Ohnuki
  24. Hydraulic power project of U.S. federal government in the provinces \Case studies of four early Reclamation Projects \ By Takuro Hidaka
  25. The Contribution of Domestic Investment, Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Peru By Bakari, Sayef; Fakraoui, Nissar; Mabrouki, Mohamed

  1. By: William, Lazonick
    Abstract: Edith Penrose’s 1959 book The Theory of the Growth of the Firm [TGF] provides intellectual foundations for a theory of innovative enterprise, which is essential to any attempt to explain productivity growth, employment opportunity, and income distribution. Properly understood, Penrose’s theory of the firm is also an antidote to the deception that is foundational to neoclassical economics: The theory, taught by PhD economists to millions upon millions of college students for over seven decades, that the most unproductive firm is the foundation of the most efficient economy. The dissemination of this “neoclassical fallacy” to a mass audience of college students began with Paul A. Samuelson’s textbook, Economics: An Introductory Analysis, first published in 1948. Over the decades, the neoclassical fallacy has persisted through 18 revisions of Samuelson, Economics and in its countless “economics principles” clones. This essay challenges the intellectual hegemony of neoclassical economics by exposing the illogic of its foundational assumptions about how a modern economy functions and performs. The neoclassical fallacy gained popularity in the 1950s, during which decade Samuelson revised Economics three times. Meanwhile, Penrose derived the logic of organizational learning that she lays out in TGF from the facts of firm growth, absorbing what was known in the 1950s about the large corporations that had come to dominate the U.S. economy. Also, during that decade, the knowledge base on the growth of firms on which economists could subsequently draw was undergoing an intellectual revolution, led by the business historian, Alfred D. Chandler, Jr. He was engaged in the first stage of a career that would span more than a half century, during which Chandler documented and analyzed the centrality to U.S economic development of what he would come to call “the managerial revolution in American business.” In combination, the works of Penrose and Chandler form intellectual foundations for my own work on the Theory of Innovative Enterprise—an endeavor that has enabled me, as an economist, to recognize not only the profound importance of organizational learning for economic theory but also the illogic of the neoclassical theory of the firm for our understanding of the central institution of a modern economy, the business corporation. In this essay, I argue that the key characteristic of the innovative enterprise is fixed-cost investment in the productive capabilities of the company’s employees to engage in organizational learning. The purpose of this investment in organizational learning is to develop a higher-quality product than was previously available. When successful, the development of the higher-quality product enables the firm to capture a large extent of the market, transforming high fixed cost into low unit cost. The result is sustainable competitive advantage that enables the growth of the firm, contributing to the growth of the economy as a whole. I argue that to get beyond the neoclassical fallacy, economists have to stop relying on constrained-optimization methodology. Rather, they need to be trained in a “historical transformation” methodology that integrates history and theory. It is a methodology in which theory serves as both a distillation of what we have learned from the study of history and a guide to what we need to learn about reality as the “present as history” unfolds.
    Keywords: Theory of the firm, Penrosian learning, Chandlerian history, innovative enterprise, economic performance, Paul Samuelson, neoclassical fallacy, constrained optimization, historical transformation
    JEL: A2 B3 N8
    Date: 2020–01
  2. By: Robert J. Barro; José F. Ursúa; Joanna Weng
    Abstract: Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.
    JEL: E1 I0 O4
    Date: 2020–03
  3. By: Sergio Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner
    Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak has sparked urgent questions about the impact of pandemics, and associated countermeasures, on the real economy. Policymakers are in uncharted territory, with little guidance on what the expected economic fallout will be and how the crisis should be managed. In this blog post, we use insights from a recent research paper to discuss two sets of questions. First, what are the real economic effects of a pandemic—and are these effects temporary or persistent? Second, how does the local public health response affect the economic severity of the pandemic? In particular, do non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing have economic costs, or do policies that slow the spread of the pandemic also reduce its economic severity?
    Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions; real effects; Pandemic
    JEL: N32 E0 N12 E32
    Date: 2020–03–27
  4. By: Ariane Pailhé; Anne Solaz; Maria Stanfors
    Abstract: Over the past decades, men’s and women’s time use has changed dramatically suggesting a gender revolution across industrialized nations. Women increased their time in paid work and reduced time in unpaid activities. Men increased their time in unpaid work, but not enough to compensate. Thus, women still perform more unpaid work irrespective of context. We investigate developments regarding men’s and women’s unpaid work across Europe and the United States, using time diary data from the mid-1980s and onwards. We find evidence for gender convergence in unpaid work over time, but different trends for housework and childcare. Gender convergence in housework was primarily a result from women reducing their time, whereas childcare time increased for both genders only supporting convergence in contexts where men changed more than women. Decomposition analyses show that trends in housework and childcare are generally explained by changes in behaviour rather than compositional changes in population characteristics.
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Kodila-Tedika, Oasis; Khalifa, Sherif
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of the number of visits by U.S. officials to a country, and the number of visits of the country’s leaders to the United States, on foreign aid. To achieve our objective, we compile novel variables that indicate the number of official visits from 1960-2015 from the historical archives of the U.S. State Department. To deal with potential endogeneity, we introduce novel instrumental variables for the official visits variables, namely aviation safety, capital distance, and urban distance. The 2SLS estimations provide evidence that the visits by the U.S. leaders to the country, and the visits of the country’s leaders to the United States, have a statistically significant negative effect on multilateral aid, but an insignificant effect on bilateral aid flows from the United States. This indicates that other donors take the visits by U.S. Presidents as a signal that the country does not need aid either due to the costly reception of the American dignitary or because they assume that the country will be able to secure aid from the U.S. and will be less in need of their assistance. This also indicates that the costly official visits by the country’s leadership to the United States cause the donors to become reluctant to provide aid as these types of expenditure send a negative signal that the country is not administering its finances adequately to avoid the need for aid.
    Keywords: Foreign Aid, Executive, Leader Trip
    JEL: F35 H11
    Date: 2020–03–30
  6. By: Wolfgang Keller; Markus Lampe; Carol H. Shiue
    Abstract: This paper describes broad regional and temporal trends in the evolution of international trade and international factor flows between 1700 and 1870, including key differences in trade costs across space and time. We find trade links in Western Europe and the European colonies of North America intensified at the same time these regions experienced the initial industrial revolution and the spread of industrialization, which led to sustained economic growth. At the same time, global differences in specialization and income emerged. To understand the contribution of global market forces, as well as colonialism to these differences, the chapter lays out theoretical reasons for links between trade and economic growth and examines related historical arguments and evidence. We conclude that trade contributed to global divergence, but the magnitude and mechanisms through which trade affected global welfare lies not so much in the direct impact of trade and specialization, but in multiplier effects emerging from the interactions of trade with other factors that affect economic development.
    JEL: N10
    Date: 2020–03
  7. By: Òscar Jordà; Sanjay R. Singh; Alan M. Taylor
    Abstract: How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
    Keywords: depressions; natural rate; local projections; wars; real interest rate; pandemics; COVID-19
    JEL: E43 F41 N10 N30 N40
    Date: 2020–03–26
  8. By: Heise, Arne; Serfraz Khan, Ayesha
    Abstract: This paper attempts to shed some light on the developments of welfare states in highly developed nations since World War Two (WW2) within the context of a narrative which seeks to combine institutional distinctions, termed “varieties of capitalism,” with the historical regimes of regulation theory in a political economy perspective which puts interested political actors at centre stage. It will be argued that in a liberal democracy, the elite has the framing and agenda-setting power to “manufacture a political will” according to its interests. The welfare state is not the result of a long social struggle on the part of the needy; rather, it results in its general features from the minimal state of meritocratic exigencies. Under the very peculiar circumstances of the post-WW2 era, this even translated into a rise in social welfare spending to more than a third of national income. The particular design of welfare state organisation was the subject-matter of political conflict, and a clear distinction between liberal and coordinated market economies can be attributed to cultural differences and institutional settings. Yet the core of the welfare state conception serves the interest of the meritocracy as much as those who benefit from social programmes and re-distribution. And the neoliberal attack on the welfare state since the 1980s is not a necessary re-calibration due to changing economic conditions or a growing lack of solidarity among the people but an expression of a modified cost-benefit analysis from the elite’s perspective.
    Keywords: welfare state; Keynesian national welfare state; Schumpeterian competition state; elite; agenda theory
    JEL: B50 H10 H55 I30
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Maurice Obstfeld
    Abstract: Fifty years ago, Harry G. Johnson published “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, 1969,” its title echoing Milton Friedman’s classic essay of the early 1950s. Though somewhat forgotten today, Johnson’s reprise was an important element in the late 1960s debate over the future of the international monetary system. The present paper has three objectives. The first is to lay out the historical context in which Johnson’s “Case” was written and read. The second is to examine Johnson’s main points and see how they stand up to nearly five decades of experience with floating exchange rates since the end of the Bretton Woods system. The third is to review the most recent academic critiques of exchange-rate flexibility and ask how fatal they are to Johnson’s basic argument. I conclude that the essential case for exchange rate flexibility still stands strong.
    JEL: F31 F33 F41 F42
    Date: 2020–03
  10. By: Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Viola von Berlepsch
    Abstract: Does past migration beget future migration? Do migrants from different backgrounds, origins and ethnicities, and separated by several generations always settle – in a path dependent way – in the same places? Is there a permanent separation between migration-prone and migration-averse areas? This paper examines whether that is the case by looking at the settlement patterns of two very different migration waves to the United States (US), that of Europeans at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries and that of Latin Americans between the 1960s and the early 21st century. Using Census data aggregated at county level, we track the settlement pattern of migrants and assess the extent to which the first mass migration wave has determined the later settlement pattern of Latin American migrants. The analysis, conducted using ordinary least squares, instrumental variable and panel data estimation techniques, shows that past US migration patterns create a path dependence that has conditioned the geography of future migration waves. Recent Latin American migrants have flocked, once other factors are controlled for, to the same migration prone US counties where their European predecessors settled, in spite of the very different nature of both migration waves and a time gap of three to five generations.
    Keywords: migration, migration waves, long-term, Latin America, Europe, counties, US
    JEL: F22 J15 O15 R23
    Date: 2020–04
  11. By: Ansala, Laura (City of Helsinki); Aslund, Olof (IFAU); Sarvimäki, Matti (Aalto University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between past immigration experiences of the host country and the way new immigrants enter the labor market. We focus on two countries—Finland and Sweden—that have similar formal institutions but starkly different immigration histories. In both countries, immigrants tend to find their first jobs in low-paying establishments, where the manager and colleagues share their ethnic background. The associations between background characteristics, time to first job, other entry job characteristics, earnings dynamics and job stability are also remarkably similar. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the host country's immigration history plays a limited role in shaping the integration process.
    Keywords: immigration, labor market integration, ethnic segregation, entry jobs
    JEL: J61 J62
    Date: 2020–03
  12. By: Vincent Koen; Jinwoan Beom
    Abstract: The North Korean economy has been a statistical black hole for decades but is undergoing substantial transformations. Rapid post-war industrialisation was not sustained beyond the mid-1960s and South Korea’s economy far outpaced North Korea’s during the next three decades, during which trend growth declined and turned negative as Soviet support ended and the terms of trade with China became less friendly. Today, GDP in North Korea is reportedly lower than in 1990, notwithstanding a larger population, and gross national income per capita is probably down to only a tiny fraction of South Korea’s.
    Keywords: central planning, China, construction, corruption, defence, development, digitalisation, energy, exchange rates, food, health, international sanctions, marketisation, monetary reform, natural disasters, North Korea, pollution, rail, Russia, smuggling, South Korea, Soviet, special economic zones, tourism, trade, transition, transport
    JEL: N15 N35 N45 N55 N65 N75 O21 O53 P21 P22 P23 P24 P26 P27 P28 P31 P52 Z32
    Date: 2020–04–08
  13. By: Pierre Gervais (CRAN - Centre de Recherche sur l'Amérique du Nord - CREW - CREW - Center for Research on the English-speaking World - EA 4399 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3)
    Abstract: The article raises the question of the possibility of historicizing quantification, which starts from a reflection on the categories used for this quantification. Beginning with an analysis of two specific examples from pre-or proto-industrial economies at the turn of the eighteenth to the nineteenth century, the article points out that quantification methods applied at the time used very different principles than would be used today in the same context. One case highlighted in the paper focuses on the definition of production costs around 1820 in one of the first fully mechanized textile mills in Waltham, Massachusetts. The other example from circa 1755 analyzes how Abraham Gradis, an important Bordeaux merchant, used the category of currency in his accounting. The article concludes that a truly historical approach to numbers should always start by studying the mindsets of the actors who generated these numbers in order to guarantee a historical understanding of the categories that governed this process.
    Abstract: La divergence croissante entre l'histoire et l'économie, prises en tant que disciplines scientifiques, se manifeste peut-être plus nettement qu'à tout autre égard dans l'emploi de la quantification en histoire, et particulièrement en histoire économique, où cet emploi semblerait aller de soi. L'usage du chiffre était central dans les grandes enquêtes quantifiées de l'école des Annales au milieu du siècle dernier, et il a même été possible de croire à sa généralisation dans les années 1970 avec l'apparition aux États-Unis de la «cliométrie», l'application à l'histoire de méthodes quantitatives (et souvent de théories) tirées de l'économie. Mais la situation a évolué en sens inverse à partir des années 1990. Si le traitement mathématico-statistique de données est devenu un élément de validation essentiel ces dernières décennies pour quiconque souhaite écrire dans les principales revues scientifiques en économie.
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Edwyna Harris (Monash University); Sumner La Croix (University of Hawaii)
    Abstract: Great Britain established the new colony of South Australia (SA) in 1834. The immigration contract signed by assisted migrants required the SA government to provide those who could not find private sector work with employment on public works. We use new data on the compensation of unemployed and private-sector workers to examine how the SA unemployment system functioned before and after the onset of a major economic crisis in August 1840. We conclude that the unemployment system provided highly compensated relief employment to a small number of migrants prior to the crisis but as migrant numbers claiming relief employment soared between August 1840 and October 1841, the government drastically cut compensation for relief employment. The cuts occurred in tandem with the government’s release of newly surveyed rural lands, which together provided incentives and opportunities for workers to move to rural areas to seek work on newly opened farms. A comparison of the SA employment relief program with the 1843 temporary employment relief program established in the neighboring colony of New South Wales (NSW) shows that the NSW program neither established guarantees of jobs for assisted migrants unable to find work nor provided jobs for all assisted migrants without work during the 1843-1845 period.
    Keywords: relief, unemployed, South Australia, migrants, public works
    JEL: J65 N37 J38
    Date: 2020–03
  15. By: Leigh, Andrew (Australian National University)
    Abstract: Compiling data from dozens of archival sources, I compile the most extensive series to date of the long-run imprisonment rate for five English-speaking nations: Australia, Canada, England and Wales, New Zealand and the United States. These series are constructed as a share of adults rather than the entire population, and I discuss why the latter can be misleading. In the late-nineteenth century, Australia had the highest incarceration rate of these nations. Today, the United States has the highest rate. With the exception of Canada, incarceration rates have risen markedly since the mid-1980s. These new series are made available in full, to allow other researchers to explore the consequences and causes of incarceration.
    Keywords: prison, jail, incarceration, crime
    JEL: I30 K14 N30
    Date: 2020–03
  16. By: Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Martin Obschonka (Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia); Fabian Wahl (University of Hohenheim, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany)
    Abstract: We investigate whether the Roman presence in the southern part of Germany nearly 2,000 years ago had a deep imprinting effect with long run consequences on a broad spectrum of measures ranging from present-day personality profiles to a number of socioeconomic outcomes and why. Today's populations living in the former Roman part of Germany score indeed higher on certain personality traits, have higher life and health satisfaction, longer life expectancy, generate more inventions and behave in a more entrepreneurial way. These findings help explain that regions under Roman rule have higher present-day levels of economic development in terms of GDP per capita. The effects hold when controlling for other potential historical influences. When addressing potential channels of a long term effect of Roman rule the data indicates that the Roman road network plays an important role as a mechanism in the imprinting that is still perceptible today.
    Keywords: Romans, personality traits, culture, well-being, regional performance, Limes
    JEL: N9 O1 I31
    Date: 2020–03–30
  17. By: Jörn Boehnke (UC Davis - University of California [Davis] - University of California); Victor Gay (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)
    Abstract: Using spatial variation in World War I military fatalities in France, we show that the scarcity of men due to the war generated an upward shift in female labor force participation that persisted throughout the interwar period. Available data suggest that increased female labor supply accounts for this result. In particular, deteriorated marriage market conditions for single women and negative income shocks to war widows induced many of these women to enter the labor force after the war. In contrast, demand factors such as substitution toward female labor to compensate for the scarcity of male labor were of second-order importance.
    Keywords: Economics,Female labor force participation,Sex ratio,Marriage market,World War I,Economic history
    Date: 2020–01
  18. By: Leigh, Andrew (Australian National University)
    Abstract: Constructing a new series of incarceration rates from 1860 to 2018, I find that Australia now incarcerates a greater share of the adult population than at any point since the late nineteenth century. Much of this increase has occurred since the mid-1980s. Since 1985, the Australian incarceration rate has risen by 130 percent, and now stands at 0.22 percent of adults (221 prisoners per 100,000 adults). Recalculating Indigenous incarceration rates so that they are comparable over a long time span, I find that incarceration rates for Indigenous Australians have risen dramatically. Fully 2.5 percent of Indigenous adults are incarcerated (2481 prisoners per 100,000 adults), a higher share than among African-Americans. The recent increase in the Australian prison population does not seem to be due to crime rates, which have mostly declined over the past generation. Instead, higher reporting rates, stricter policing practices, tougher sentencing laws, and more stringent bail laws appear to be the main drivers of Australia's growing prison population.
    Keywords: prison, jail, incarceration, crime
    JEL: I30 K14 N30
    Date: 2020–03
  19. By: Victor Gay (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)
    Abstract: This paper explores the pathways that underlie the diffusion of women's participation in the labor force across generations. I exploit a severe exoge-nous shock to the sex ratio, World War I in France, which generated a large inflow of women in the labor force after the war. I show that this shock to female labor transmitted to subsequent generations until today. Three mechanisms of intergenerational transmission account for this result: parental transmission, transmission through marriage, and transmission through local social interactions. Beyond behaviors, the war also permanently altered beliefs toward the role of women in the labor force. (JEL J16, J22, N34, Z13)
    Keywords: Social norm,Military fatalities,Female labor force participation,Female labor supply,Intergenerational transmission,World War I,Gender norms,Economic History,Culture
    Date: 2019–04
  20. By: Haas, Levi; Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R.
    Abstract: International trade is currently under fire from many sides. Protectionist trade policies are on the rise, putting an end to the decade-long march of free trade. Making sense of the daily headlines and having an informed opinion on your own has rarely been more important than it is now. Our work aims to explain the driving forces behind international trade, its history, how it shaped the world, its economic models, issues ranging from job losses to the environment and why eating kangaroos is better than buying local. We summarize the most important academic literature on these topics in a non-technical, educational manner. If the readers conclude that our report has been useful in forming their own views on the pros and cons of international trade and that they can `talk the talk', we are gratified with the fruit of our work.
    Keywords: International trade, survey.
    JEL: A2 A22 F1
    Date: 2019–09–25
  21. By: Volker Mecking (CEL - Centre d'Etudes Linguistiques - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon)
    Abstract: Cet acte royal en date du 2 septembre 1584, donné à Saint-Germain-en-Laye, émane de Henri, roi de France (1551-1589) et porte sur la gestion de la gendarmerie et des compagnies d'ordonnance. Mis en ligne le 12 février 2019 par la Bibliothèque Nationale de France, ce texte in-8 comporte un ensemble de 66 pages. Il s'agit en toute évidence d'une source ignorée par la lexicographie historique du français, comme des milliers de textes administratifs de l'Ancien Régime, négligée par la lexicographie historique (Littré, Huguet, Godefroy) à l'avantage du texte littéraire. Notre étude lexicale vise à mettre en valeur l'importance de cette prose administrative dont l'apport pour l'histoire du français préclassique (1500-1650) nous paraît non négligeable. Au moment de la publication de cette ordonnance, le pays se retrouve dans une période d'accalmie, entre la septième guerre de religion (1579-1580) et la huitième (1585-1598). Les campagnes militaires pèsent lourdement sur le trésor de l'Épargne, créé en 1523, qui centralise tous les revenus de l'État. L'armée française, à la fin du 16e siècle, est encore loin d'une uniformisation pourtant plus que nécessaire, les statuts des militaires, leurs langues, cultures et droits variant d'une région, voir d'une légion à l'autre. Le besoin de professionnaliser les forces armées et la mise en place d'un véritable règlement du service militaire se font sentir, ce qui nécessite également une attribution plus pertinente des fonctions de l'intendance militaire . Le quotidien des militaires est marqué, à la veille de la pacification henricienne, par une augmentation notable des effectifs, la démocratisation des armes à feu et de l'artillerie ainsi que l'essor de l'infanterie. La législation de l'époque rappelle inlassablement les règles de la discipline militaire, les instances juridiques habilités connaître les litiges y afférent, les fonctions et attributions des chefs militaires. En effet, les exactions et abus par rapport à la population se multiplient, entre autres en raison d'un système de paye largement perfectible. Les jeux de hasard et d'argent sont à la mode, la fraude et la désertion sont monnaie courante, facilitées souvent par l'absence d'état civil permettant l'identification des militaires et les empêchant de s'inscrire dans les rôles de plusieurs compagnies ou régiments à la fois. La pression sur la population locale obligée de fournir des vivres et des logements aux unités en déplacement donne lieu à une pléthore de protestations et de réclamations ce qui amène la monarchie à intensifier le contrôle des soldats et l'introduction d'une énième imposition, le taillon, au grand dam du contribuable. Nous avons procédé à la transcription du texte tout en conservant son orthographe, sa ponctuation, et nous signalons au lecteur d'éventuelles coquilles ou incohérences. Tous les termes techniques, surtout de la comptabilité et du système militaire ont été pris en compte, ainsi que tous les mots du domaine ‘général' ayant un intérêt pour le français préclassique (premières et dernières attestations, mots ou acceptions rares, néologismes, mots concurrentiels, etc.). La synthèse in fine présentera les particularités lexicales de cette source et dressera un bilan relatif à son apport pour la lexicographie historique (FEW, TLFi). Un index lexical permettra au lecteur de s'orienter plus facilement à l'intérieur de ce corpus amplement commenté.
    Keywords: Lettres de provision(s),Lettres de publication,Lettres patentes,Table de marbre (Ancien Régime),Grades miltaires,Monet 1636,Lieutenant général,Mots concurrenciels,Richelet 1680,Trévoux (dictionnaires),Académie (dictionnaires),Histoire militaire de France,Ordonnances royales,Terminologie militaire,Fiscalité Ancien Régime,Armée française,Taillon (impôt),Furetière 1690,Godefroy (dictionnaire),Néologie sémantique,Nicot 1606 (dictionnaire),Emprunts,Maréchal de France,Huguet (dictionnaire),Français préclassique 1500-1650,Guerres de religion 1562-1598,Henri III de France,Ancien Régime XVIe-XVIIe siècles,Néologie lexicale,Lexicographie du français préclassique 1500-1650,Discipline militaire,Ban et arrière-ban,Fédéric Morel (imprimeur),Maréchal des logis,Französisches Etymologisches Wörterbuch FEW,Walther von Wartburg 1888-1971 Französisches Etymologisches Wörterbuch,Compagnie (unité militaire),Enrôlement (armée),Infanterie,Sergent major,Chambre des comptes,Cour des aydes,Lieutenant civil,Lieutenant criminel,Prévot des maréchaux
    Date: 2019–12–06
  22. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University); Mergele, Lukas (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Woessmann, Ludger (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
    Abstract: German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of communism. We show in three steps that the populations in East and West Germany were far from being randomly selected treatment and control groups. First, the later border is already visible in many socio-economic characteristics in pre-World War II data. Second, World War II and the subsequent occupying forces affected East and West differently. Third, a selective fifth of the population fled from East to West Germany before the building of the Wall in 1961. In light of our findings, we propose a more cautious interpretation of the extensive literature on the enduring effects of communist systems on economic outcomes, political preferences, cultural traits, and gender roles.
    Keywords: political systems, communism, preferences, culture, Germany
    JEL: D72 H11 P26 P36 N44
    Date: 2020–03
  23. By: Masanao Itoh (President, Otsuma Women's University (E-mail:; Yasuko Morita (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:; Mari Ohnuki (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
    Abstract: This monographic paper summarizes views held by the Bank of Japan (hereafter BOJ or the Bank) in the 1990s regarding economic and financial conditions as well as the conduct of monetary policy, based on materials compiled during the period mainly in its Archives. The following points were confirmed in writing this paper. First, throughout the 1990s, the Bank's thinking behind the conduct of monetary policy had shifted toward emphasizing the transparency of its policy management. The basic background to this seemed to be the growing importance of dialogue with market participants, reflecting a change in the target for money market operations from official discount rate changes to the guiding of money market rates. In addition, the fact that the revised Bank of Japan Act (hereafter the Bank of Japan Act of 1997) came into effect in April 1998 under the two principles of independence and transparency accelerated the trend of attaching importance to transparency. Second, on the back of the emphasis on transparency, the Bank enhanced its communication by increasing its releases in the second half of the 1990s, particularly after the enforcement of the Bank of Japan Act of 1997. Thus, the materials, especially those referred to in the latter half of this paper, consist mainly of the Bank's releases. And third, in the 1990s, the Bank faced a critical situation in which it needed to conduct monetary policy while paying due attention to the functioning of the financial system. Therefore, this paper includes numerous references to the issues regarding the financial system, mainly the disposal of nonperforming loans.
    Keywords: Monetary policy conduct, Disposal of nonperforming loans, Financial system crisis, Bank of Japan Act of 1997, Zero interest rate policy
    JEL: E52 E58 N15 N25
    Date: 2020–03
  24. By: Takuro Hidaka (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the continuity between nineteenth and early twentieth century public policies of the U.S. federal government with respect to the West. The development of water resources in the West, embarked upon by the federal government in the early twentieth century, has been regarded as an extension of nineteenth century economic development stimulus measures. However, there has been insufficient consideration of hydropower projects, which may have played a different role from supporting economic development, through the suppression of electricity rate by private power companies. This paper looks at the decisions made by Reclamation Bureau in early four Reclamation Projects, in response to the consultation received from the people in each area, to identify their contribution to the control of electricity rates. The results did not confirm the contribution of the bureau to the control of electricity rates and did not observe any characteristics that differed from the measures to support economic development. The continuity of nineteenth- and early twentieth-century federal public policy with respect to the West is also supported by these four case studies. However, this paper also found that the bureau had taken decisions that facilitated the formation of regional monopolies and had prepared a situation in which high electricity rates were likely to be set. The hydroelectric projects of the bureau were a supportive measure for economic development that was an extension of 19th century policy, but they also brought adverse effects.
    Keywords: Water resource development, Irrigation, Reclamation Project, Bureau of Reclamation
    JEL: N41 N42 N51 N52
  25. By: Bakari, Sayef; Fakraoui, Nissar; Mabrouki, Mohamed
    Abstract: This article has examined the contribution of domestic investment, exports and imports on economic growth in Peru. To achieve this objective, annual data for the period between 1970 and 2017 were used and tested based on Johansen co integration analysis and the vector error correction model. According to the results of the analysis, it has been determined that domestic investment, exports and imports have not any effect on economic growth in the short run and in the long run. These outcomes manifest that trade openness and domestic investments are not beholden as a provenance of economic growth in Peru over this extended period and suffer from many issues and a miserable economic organization.
    Keywords: Domestic investment, Imports, Exports, Economic Growth, Peru
    JEL: E2 E22 F11 F13 F14 O4 O47
    Date: 2020–01–01

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.