nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2020‒02‒24
28 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework By Aurélien Goutsmedt; Goulven Rubin
  2. A Noi! Income Inequality and Italian Fascism: Evidence from Labour and Top Income Shares By Giacomo Gabbuti
  3. Historical institutions and electoral outcomes the case of India after decolonization By Shree Saha
  4. Sovereign debt and European interventions in nineteenth century Latin America By Flores Zendejas, Juan
  5. A “Silent Revolution”: school reforms and Italy’s educational gender gap in the Liberal Age (1861-1921) By Gabriele Cappelli; Michelangelo Vesta
  6. Classical Unified Growth Theory By Lueger, Tim
  7. Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints – Edmond Malinvaud's Criticisms of the New Classical Economics: Restoring the Nature and the Rationale of the Old Keynesians' Opposition By Renault, Matthieu
  8. The Origins of Creativity: The Case of the Arts in the United States since 1850 By Karol J. Borowiecki
  9. Aristocracy and Inequality in Italy, 1861-1931 By Brian A’Hearn; Stefano Chianese; Giovanni Vecchi
  10. Minimum Wage and the Labor Market: What Can We Learn from the French Experience? By Jérôme Gautié; Patrice Laroche
  11. Crisis Chronicles: The Panic of 1819—America’s First Great Economic Crisis By James Narron; David R. Skeie; Donald P. Morgan
  12. Childless Aristocrats. Inheritance and the Extensive Margin of Fertility By Paula Eugenia Gobbi; Marc Goñi
  13. Debt and financial crises By Wee Chian Koh; M. Ayhan Kose; Peter S. Nagle; Franziska L. Ohnsorge; Naotaka Sugawara
  14. Crisis Chronicles: The Hamburg Crisis of 1799 and How Extreme Winter Weather Still Disrupts the Economy By Donald P. Morgan; David R. Skeie; James Narron
  15. The Long-Run and Gender-Equalizing Impacts of School Access: Evidence from the First Indochina War By Hai-Anh H. Dang; Trung X. Hoang; Ha Nguyen
  16. Regional Monetary Policies and the Great Depression By Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi; Gustavo S. Cortes; Marc D. Weidenmier
  17. Education and Conflict Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia By Dominic Rohner; Alessandro Saia
  18. "Ages of Financial Instability" By Mario Tonveronachi
  19. A voyage in the role of territory: are territories capable of instilling their peculiarities in local production systems By Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro
  20. Civic legacies of wartime governance By Justino Patricia; Stojetz Wolfgang
  21. The water of life and death: a brief economic history of spirits By Lara Cockx; Giulia Meloni; Jo Swinnen
  22. Global recessions By M. Ayhan Kose; Naotaka Sugawara; Marco E. Terrones
  23. Sex Ratio and Global Sodomy Law Reform in the Post-WWII Era By Chang, Simon
  24. Crisis Chronicles: The British Export Bubble of 1810 and Pegged versus Floating Exchange Rates By Donald P. Morgan; David R. Skeie; James Narron
  25. A brief economic history of chocolate By Johan Swinnen
  26. Influence in Economics and Aging By Jelnov, Pavel; Weiss, Yoram
  27. Discerning Good from Bad Credit Booms; The Role of Construction By Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Ehsan Ebrahimy; Deniz O Igan; Damien Puy
  28. History of Discount Window Stigma By Olivier Armantier; Asani Sarkar; Helene Lee

  1. By: Aurélien Goutsmedt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier); Goulven Rubin (LEM - Lille économie management - LEM - UMR 9221 - Université de Lille - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article studies the dissemination of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Hypothesis (NRH) in macroeconomics during the 1970s, by studying the reaction of Robert J. Gordon to the argument of Milton Friedman (1968). In the early 1970s, Gordon displayed an empirical opposition to the NRH, arguing that the estimated parameter on expected inflation was below one, meaning that the adjustment of inflation in wages was not total. Confronting to new data and to the rise of inflation, Gordon adopted the NRH after 1973. Nevertheless the adoption anticipated any empirical proof of a parameter close to one. We explain that this conversion was due to Friedman's influence on Gordon, but also to the fact it did not prevent Gordon to support active stabilization policies. The article shows how a complex explanation of the 1960s and 1970s inflation was little by little replaced by the simpler accelerationist Phillips Curve. It enables to understand the dissemination of this particular Phillips Curve, relying on the NRH, as a process mainly led by economists close to the Keynesian framework.
    Keywords: Expectations,Natural rate of unemployment,Phillips curve,Stagflation
    Date: 2018–05
  2. By: Giacomo Gabbuti
    Abstract: A century after Mussolini’s seizure of power, distributive trends during Interwar Italy are only partially known. This paper presents new evidence on inequality, contributing to the ‘classic’ debate on Fascism’s origins and legacy. Labour shares fell dramatically during the Great War, quickly recovered by 1922, and experienced a steady decline during Fascism, reaching a secular minimum in early 1940s. A newly assembled database of fiscal tabulations shows increasing concentration at the top between 1925 and 1936. These findings testify the fundamentally regressive nature of the Fascist regime, revealing significant discontinuity in Italy’s long-run inequality trend.
    JEL: B12 D63 J31 N14 N34
    Date: 2020–02–18
  3. By: Shree Saha (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth)
    Abstract: There is now ample evidence that historical colonial institutions impact contemporary economic outcomes and some suggest that these links might be mediated by the influence of colonial institutions on electoral processes and outcomes. This paper examines this under-researched link in the context of India, focusing on two colonial institutions that potentially influence electoral outcomes - the type of rule, i.e. whether a territory was under direct British rule or whether it was under native rule - and the type of land tenure installed by the British. I measure electoral outcomes by three variables: voter turnout (VT), margin of victory (MV) and electoral competition (EC) and ask: Do historical colonial institutions impact contemporary electoral outcomes and if yes, in what ways? Do such impacts persist in the longer term? I focus specifically on the elections at the cusp of decolonization (1951) and those in 1970s, to assess short and longer-terms impacts. Results indicate a 4 higher VT in native ruled areas in the long run and 5 higher VT in the non-landlord areas in the short run. The latter dissipates in the longer term because of tenancy reforms. I find EC consistently higher in British and landlord areas but no robust impact on MV is noted. These results are consistent with the role played by landlords and erstwhile princes of native states after decolonization. The paper provides evidence on the potentially important mediating role of electoral outcomes in link between historical institutions and economic outcomes and suggests that research on elections should not overlook the role of historical institutions and those exploring the historical origins of economic outcomes should not overlook the role of elections.
    Keywords: Colonial institution, political institution, democracy, decolonization, path- dependence, elections
    JEL: B15 B16 B25 B52 D72 P48
    Date: 2019–11
  4. By: Flores Zendejas, Juan
    Abstract: During the nineteenth century, sovereign debt defaults led to active intervention by governments from creditor countries to defend the claims of their bondholders. In certain cases, these interventions triggered the imposition of foreign control through commissions formed by States’ and bondholders' representatives. This chapter investigates why foreign control episodes were mostly absent in Latin America despite its recurrent debt crises. We focus on two case studies from the mid-nineteen century, Mexico and Peru, and analyze how public and private control was pursued to secure debt repayment and the development of international trade. Even though the British government was reluctant to intervene, major merchant banks could heavily influence the fiscal and commercial policies of countries with European commercial relations. However, the resumption of debt service in the aftermath of a default depended upon a complex set of political and economic factors.
    Keywords: Sovereign defaults, Debt crises, Informal empire, Supersanctions
    JEL: N00 N26 N40 N46
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Gabriele Cappelli (University of Siena); Michelangelo Vesta (University of Siena)
    Abstract: This paper explores the evolution of the human capital gender gap in Liberal Italy (1871 – 1921). First, we show that Italy lagged some 50 years behind more advanced countries like France, Prussia and the UK, and that the regional divide in gendered literacy was unparalleled in the rest of Europe. Next, we test whether the shift to primary-school centralization in 1911 (the Daneo-Credaro Reform) brought about a decisive improvement in female literacy. We rely on a brand-new, cross-section micro (municipal) dataset of literacy rates in 1911 and 1921, as well as their potential determinants around 1911. Such data, combined with Propensity Score Matching to improve identification, shows that primary-school centralization increased the average annual growth of female literacy by 0.78 percentage points. Thus, even though the Reform did not aim at girls specifically, it brought about the unintended consequences of more rapid human capital accumulation for women and – ceteris paribus – a reduced educational gender gap. We briefly discuss why this “Silent Revolution” likely had important implications for Italy’s economic history.
    Keywords: Gender, primary schooling, Liberal Age, Italy
    JEL: I25 J16 N3
    Date: 2020–02
  6. By: Lueger, Tim
    Abstract: Throughout the history of economic thought, there have been numerous attempts to model an early era of "Malthusian" economic stagnation as well as the transition to an era of economic development in one coherent framework, or, in other words, a unified growth theory. In recent years, unified growth models have attracted a large readership among economists, challenging the conventional exogenous neoclassical growth theory. However, in most of these models, an important effect suggested by Malthus has been frequently omitted. By including what he had called "the great preventive check" in the conventional Malthusian trap model, which is based on the principle of population, the principle of diminishing returns and the principle of labor division, the transition can be modeled in a very simple dynamic macroeconomic framework. The correspondingly advanced theory suggests that increasing life expectancy tends to create a demographic structure that is much less prone to overpopulation. This new interpretation of the classical growth model is suggested to be capable of integrating the mechanisms of economic stagnation and economic development. Although the "vaguer intuitions" of the classical economists provided deeper and more profound insights than those of most modern unified growth theorists, the verbal form of their arguments has at the same time tended to be more favorable to misinterpretations. It is the intention of this work to identify these misinterpretations and to restore the main ideas of classical economics by building a basic classical unified growth model.
    Date: 2019–12
  7. By: Renault, Matthieu
    Abstract: Unlike standard accounts, recent research in the history of macroeconomics has given increasing attention to the Old Keynesians’ criticisms of the New Classical Economics. In this paper, I address the case of Edmond Malinvaud, who began opposing the latter from the early 1980s and did so throughout the following thirty years. This study shows that his opposition was radical, i.e., multidimensional and systematic, and owes to the methodology and the practice of macroeconometric modeling. In turn, this twofold result sheds light on the nature and the rationale of the Old Keynesians’ opposition to the New Classical Economics from the 1970s onwards, which can be interpreted along the same lines.
    Date: 2019–12–31
  8. By: Karol J. Borowiecki (Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark)
    Abstract: This research illuminates the historical development of creative activity in the United States. Census data is used to identify creative occupations (i.e., artists, musicians, authors, actors) and data on prominent creatives, as listed in a comprehensive biographical compendium. The analysis rst sheds light on the socio-economic background of creative people and how it has changed since 1850. The results indicate that the proportion of female creatives is relatively high, time constraints can be a hindrance for taking up a creative occupation, racial inequality is present and tends to change only slowly, and education plays a signi cant role for taking up a creative occupation. Second, the study systematically documents and quanti es the geography of creative clusters in the United States and explains how these have evolved over time and across creative domains. Third, it investigates the importance of outstanding talent in a discipline for the local growth of an artistic cluster.
    Keywords: Creativity, artists, geographic clustering, agglomeration economies, urban history
    JEL: R1 N33 Z11
    Date: 2019–03
  9. By: Brian A’Hearn; Stefano Chianese; Giovanni Vecchi
    Abstract: A problem for both historical and contemporary research on inequality is a scarcity of high quality data on wealthy households. In this paper we explore a rich source of such data for historical periods: the account books of aristocratic households preserved in their family archives. We make three contributions: i) a survey of the nobility in Italy and of their publicly accessible archives; ii) an assay of the type and quality of budget data they contain; and iii) an assessment of the impact of adding upper-tail families to a household budget sample on inequality estimates. In a nutshell, our assessment is that the data are relatively abundant, accurate, and highly impactful. An enhanced sample of noble families will enable us to significantly improve estimates of Italian inequality right back to the country’s founding in 1861. There is no reason to think the approach would be any less feasible or fruitful in other European countries.
    JEL: N33 N34 I3
    Date: 2020–02–18
  10. By: Jérôme Gautié (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications); Patrice Laroche (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, ESCP Europe - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris)
    Abstract: Since it was introduced in 1950, and even more since it was reformed in 1970, the statutory minimum wage has been playing a key role in the French labor market. It has very specific fixing mechanisms, and from the eighties, it has been one of the highest among the OECD countries - both in relative and absolute terms. After presenting the specific features of the minimum wage setting regime in France as well as the minimum wage policies implemented since the 1950s, we provide a comprehensive survey of existing empirical evidence on the impacts of the minimum wage on the French labor market. We use a meta-analysis to draw the lessons from the empirical studies on its effects on employment. We also survey the other potential effects, such as the impact on wage bargaining and other wages, on inequalities, on profit and prices, on working conditions.
    Abstract: Depuis son introduction en 1950, et davantage encore depuis sa réforme en 1970, le salaire minimum légal a joué un rôle très important sur le marché du travail en France. Ses modalités de fixation présentent de fortes spécificités. Depuis les années 1980, il est parmi les plus élevés au sein des pays de l'OCDE - aussi bien en termes absolus que relatifs. Après avoir présenté l'institution du salaire minimum et les politiques qui ont été menées depuis les années 1950, nous passons en revue les travaux empiriques sur ses effets sur le marché du travail français. Nous menons une méta-analyse pour tirer les leçons des études sur l'impact du salaire minimum sur l'emploi. Nous présentons aussi les résultats des travaux sur les autres effets potentiels, tels que l'impact sur la négociation salariale et les autres salaires, sur les inégalités, sur les prix et les profits et sur les conditions de travail.
    Keywords: Minimum wage,wage bargaining,wage regulation,salaire minimum,France,négociation salariale,réglementation des salaires
    Date: 2018–07
  11. By: James Narron (Executive Office); David R. Skeie; Donald P. Morgan
    Abstract: As we noted in our last post on the British crisis of 1816, while Britain emerged from nearly a quarter century of war with France ready to supply the world with manufactured goods, it needed cotton to supply the mills, and all of Europe needed wheat to supplement a series of poor harvests. The United States met that demand for cotton and wheat by expanding agricultural production, facilitated by the loose credit policies of a growing number of lightly regulated state banks. Meanwhile, the Treasury needed revenue to pay off debts from the Louisiana Purchase and the War of 1812, so the government turned to selling land acquired in the Louisiana Purchase. But the increased agricultural demand and easy credit policies led to a speculative real estate boom, particularly in Alabama. So when the Treasury started to pay off its debts, the specie drain caused a painful but necessary contraction and the boom went bust. In this edition of Crisis Chronicles, we describe America?s first great economic crisis.
    Keywords: 2nd bank of U.S.; deflation; Panic of 1819; Federal Reserve System
    JEL: N2 G1
  12. By: Paula Eugenia Gobbi; Marc Goñi
    Abstract: We provide new evidence on the two-way link between fertility decisions on the extensive margin and inheritance. We focus on settlements, a popular inheritance scheme among British aristocrats that combined primogeniture and a one-generation entail of the family estates. Using peerage records (1650-1882), we find that settlements affected the extensive margin of fertility: they reduced childlessness rates by 14.7 pp. ensuring the survival of aristocratic dynasties. Since settlements were signed only if the family head survived until his heir's wedding, we establish causality by exploiting variation in the heirs birth order. Next, we show that the extensive margin of fertility can shape inheritance rules. We build a model with inter-generational hyperbolic discounting where inheritance rules affect fertility and, in turn, schemes restricting successors (e.g. settlements or trusts) emerge endogenously in response to concerns over the dynasty's survival. These results highlight the importance of fertility decisions for the analysis of inheritance.
    Keywords: Childlessness, Elites, Fertility, Inheritance, Inter-generational discounting, Settlement
    Date: 2020–01
  13. By: Wee Chian Koh; M. Ayhan Kose; Peter S. Nagle; Franziska L. Ohnsorge; Naotaka Sugawara
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises— after 8 years output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses.
    Keywords: Financial crises, currency crises, debt crises, banking crises, public debt, private debt, external debt
    JEL: E32 E61 G01 H12 H61 H63
    Date: 2020–02
  14. By: Donald P. Morgan; David R. Skeie; James Narron (Executive Office)
    Abstract: With intermittent war raging across much of Western Europe near the end of the eighteenth century, by about 1795, Hamburg had replaced Amsterdam as an important hub for commodities trade. And from 1795 to 1799, Hamburg boomed. Prices for goods increased, the harbor was full, and warehouses were bulging. But when a harsh winter iced over the harbor, excess demand and speculation drove up prices. By spring, demand proved lower than supply, and prices started falling, credit tightened, and the decline in prices accelerated. So when a ship bound for Hamburg laden with gold sunk off the coast, an act meant to avert a crisis failed to do so. In this issue of Crisis Chronicles, we use some diverse sources from the American Machinist and Mary Lindemann?s Patriots and Paupers to explore the Hamburg crisis of 1799 and describe how harsh winter weather still impacts the economy today.
    Keywords: war; Amsterdam; Hamburg; contraction; storms; housing; harvest; winter; weather
    JEL: N2 E2
  15. By: Hai-Anh H. Dang (Survey Unit, Development Data Group, World Bank and Center for Analysis and Forecasting, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences); Trung X. Hoang (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences); Ha Nguyen (Macroeconomics and Growth Unit, Development Research Group, World Bank)
    Abstract: Very few studies currently exist on the long-term impacts of schooling policies in developing countries. This paper examines the impacts—half a century later—of a mass education program conducted by the Democratic Republic of Vietnam in the occupied areas during the First Indo- china War. Difference-in-difference estimation results suggest that school-age children who were exposed to the program obtained significantly higher levels of education than their peers who were residing in French-occupied areas. The impacts are statistically significant for school- age girls and not for school-age boys. The analysis finds beneficial spillover and inter-generational impacts of education: affected girls enjoyed higher household living standards, had more educated spouses, and raised more educated children. The paper discusses various robustness checks and extensions that support these findings.
    Keywords: education achievement, reading literacy, school policy, popular education, difference- in-difference, long-term impact, war JEL Classification: H0, I2, O1, P3
    Date: 2019–06
  16. By: Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi; Gustavo S. Cortes; Marc D. Weidenmier
    Abstract: The Great Depression provides a unique setting to test the impact of monetary policies on economic activity in a monetary union within the same country during a severe crisis. Until the mid-1930s, the 12 Federal Reserve banks had the ability to set their own discount rates and conduct independent monetary policy. Using a structural VAR with sign restrictions and new monthly data for each Federal Reserve district between 1923-33, we extract a national monetary policy factor from the 12 discount rates of the Federal Reserve banks. We then identify the region-specific component for each Fed district by subtracting the common factor component of monetary policy from the discount rate of each Federal Reserve bank. Our findings suggest that there was significant variation in regional monetary policy and that the district reserve banks played a key role in the economic contraction.
    JEL: E52 E58 N1 N12
    Date: 2020–01
  17. By: Dominic Rohner (Department of Economics, University of Lausanne and CEPR); Alessandro Saia (Department of Economics, University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of school construction on the likelihood of conflict, drawing on a policy experiment in Indonesia, and collecting our own novel dataset on political violence for 289 districts in Indonesia over the period 1955-1994. We find that education has a strong, robust and quantitatively sizeable conflict-reducing impact. It is shown that the channels of transmission are both related to economic factors as well as to an increase in inter-religious trust and tolerance. Interestingly, while societal mechanisms are found to have an immediate impact, economic channels only gain importance after some years. We also show that school construction results in a shift away from violent means of expression (armed conflict) towards non-violent ones (peaceful protests).
    Keywords: Education, Conflict, Civil War, Fighting, Schools, Returns to Education, Polarization, Protest JEL Classification: C23, D74, H52, I20, N45
    Date: 2019–05
  18. By: Mario Tonveronachi
    Abstract: Starting from the mid-nineteenth century, this paper analyzes two periods of financial instability connected with financial globalization. The first culminates with the 1929 crisis, while the second characterizes the more recent experience starting from the 1970s. The period in between is divided into two subperiods. The first goes up to World War II and sees a retrenchment from globalization and the affirmation of a statist approach to national policy autonomy in pursuing domestic goals, for which we take as examples the New Deal, financial regulation, and the new international cooperative approach finally leading to Bretton Woods. The second subperiod, marked by the new international monetary order and limited globalization, although appearing as a relatively calm interlude, conceals the seeds of a renewed push toward financial fragility. The above periods are synthetically analyzed in terms of the development and mutual fertilization of theories, institutions, and vested public and private interests. The narrative is based on two interpretative keys: the Minskyan theory of financial fragility and changes in the public-private partnership, mainly with reference to the financial sector for which the role of the State as guarantor of last resort necessarily ensues. The lesson that can be derived is that a laissez-faire approach to globalization strengthens asymmetric powers and necessarily leads to overglobalization, as well as to financial and economic instability, rendering it extremely difficult and socially costly for the State to comply with its role of financial guarantor.
    Keywords: Financial Instability; Financial Fragility Theory; Globalization; International Cooperation; Financial Regulation; Public-Private Partnership
    JEL: B00 E1 E31 E32 E4 F33 G18
  19. By: Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro
    Abstract: Are territories capable of instilling their peculiarities on local production systems? Which are the territorial determinants that support this linkage? We answer to these questions theoretically and empirically. Firstly, this paper presents a conceptual voyage in the notion of territory by tapping into two different research branches: regional and agricultural economics. Thereafter, the integrated framework developed through the literature review is used to investigate the relevance of territory from an empirical point of view. We do that looking at Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) as proxies of local productions due to their intrinsic and official relation with their region-of-origin. The analysis focuses on Italy, is conducted at municipality level and exploits logit dynamic panel models. Findings confirm that embedded productions reflect the combination of socio-economic, historical, institutional, natural and cultural features. In some cases, an ex-ante level of development is a relevant precondition for establishing successful agri-food systems.
    Keywords: Integrated approach, local development, Geographical Indications, agri-food systems, Italy
    JEL: O13 O20 P25 Q18 C23
    Date: 2020–02
  20. By: Justino Patricia; Stojetz Wolfgang
    Abstract: In conflict zones around the world, both state and non-state actors deliver governance at local levels. This paper explores the long-term impact of individual exposure to ‘wartime governance’ on social and political behaviour.We operationalize wartime governance as the local policy choices and practices of a ruling actor. Building on detailed ethnographic and historical insights, we use survey data and a natural experiment to show that involvement in wartime governance by armed groups makes Angolan war veterans more likely to participate in local collective action twelve years after the end of the war.This effect is underpinned by a social learning mechanism and a shift in political preferences, but has no bearing on political mobilization at the national level or social relations within the family. Our study documents an important institutional legacy of civil wars and exposes challenges and opportunities for bottom-up approaches to post-conflict state-building and local development.
    Keywords: local development,state-building,Civil conflict,Conflict,wartime governance
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Lara Cockx; Giulia Meloni; Jo Swinnen
    Abstract: Spirits represent around 50% of global alcohol consumption. This sector is much less studied than other alcohol beverages such as wine or beer. This paper reviews the economic history of spirits and analyses recent trends in the spirits markets. The technology to produce spirits is more complex than for wine or beer. Distillation was known in ancient Chinese, Indian, Greek and Egyptian societies, but it took innovations by the Arabs to distil alcohol. Initially this alcohol was used for medicinal purposes. Only in the middle ages did spirits become a widespread drink and did commercial production and markets. The Industrial Revolution created a large consumer market and reduced the cost of spirits, contributing to excess consumption and alcoholism. Governments have intervened extensively in spirits markets to reduce excessive consumption and to raise taxes. There have been significant changes in spirits consumption and trade over time. Over the past 50 years, the share of spirits in global alcohol consumption increased from around 30% to around 50%. In the past decades, there was strong growth in emerging markets, including in China and India. The spirits industry has concentrated, but less so than e.g. the brewery industry. Recent developments in the spirits industry include premiumization, the growth of craft spirits and the introduction of terroir for spirits.
    Date: 2019
  22. By: M. Ayhan Kose; Naotaka Sugawara; Marco E. Terrones
    Abstract: The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global GDP contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity. The global recessions were highly synchronized internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by the global financial crisis, was by far the deepest and most synchronized of the four recessions. As the epicenter of the crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post-war period in advanced economies as many of them have struggled to overcome the legacies of the crisis. In contrast, most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery than after previous global recessions.
    Keywords: Global economy, global expansion, global recession, global recovery, synchronization of cycles, financial markets, real activity
    JEL: E32 F44 N10 O47
    Date: 2020–02
  23. By: Chang, Simon
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of population sex ratio, i.e. ratio of men to women, in the global wave of sodomy law reform in the post-WWII era. Using a global survey, this paper first finds that men are more homophobic than women and such pattern has persisted across countries and time. With a newly constructed panel data of 183 countries, this paper then finds that high sex ratio causally makes sodomy law less likely to be repealed. The result is robust to numerous checks, including using temperature as an instrumental variable for sex ratio.
    Keywords: Sex Ratio,Sodomy Law,Gay Rights,Homophobia
    JEL: J16 J18 K14
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Donald P. Morgan; David R. Skeie; James Narron (Executive Office)
    Abstract: In the early 1800s, Napoleon?s plan to defeat Britain was to destroy its ability to trade. The plan, however, was initially foiled. After Britain helped the Portuguese government flee Napoleon in 1807, the Portuguese returned the favor by opening Brazil to British exports?a move that caused trade to boom. In addition, Britain was able to circumvent Napoleon?s continental blockade by means of a North Sea route through the Baltics, which provided continental Europe with a conduit for commodities from the Americas. But when Britain?s trade via the North Sea was interrupted in 1810, the boom ended in crisis. In this edition of Crisis Chronicles, we explore the British Export Bubble of 1810 and ask whether pegged or floating exchange rates are better for an economy.
    Keywords: floating exchange rates; exports; fixed exchange rates
    JEL: F00 G1 N2
  25. By: Johan Swinnen
    Date: 2019
  26. By: Jelnov, Pavel (Leibniz University of Hannover); Weiss, Yoram (Tel Aviv University)
    Abstract: We study the relationship between age and influence in a closed group of 1,000 leading economists. We consider, as a measurement of influence, monthly RePEc rankings. We find that the rankings are not related to age but are related to experience. The optimal level of experience is 30 years from Ph.D. graduation. Additionally, we observe no robust difference in the effect of age and experience between Nobel laureates and leading non-Nobelists. Finally, we find that labor economists enjoy an especially steep improvement in the rankings before they reach the peak; however, the rankings also peak relatively early in their careers.
    Keywords: aging, citations, influence, Nobel, research productivity
    JEL: J24
    Date: 2020–01
  27. By: Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Ehsan Ebrahimy; Deniz O Igan; Damien Puy
    Abstract: Credit booms are a focal point for policymakers and scholars of financial crises. Yet our understanding of how the real sector behaves during booms, and why some booms may go bad, is limited. Despite a large and growing body of literature, most of the work has focused on aggregate economic activity, and relatively little is known about which industries benefit and which suffer during these episodes. This note aims to fill this gap by analyzing disaggregated output and employment data in a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies between 1970 and 2014.
    Keywords: Financial crisis;Bank credit;Credit booms;Employment;Real sector;Financial statistics;Financial crises;Total factor productivity;Credit boom,Value added,Employment,SDN,Value-Added,employment growth,construction sector,credit cycle,Haver
    Date: 2020–02–12
  28. By: Olivier Armantier (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.); Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Asani Sarkar; Helene Lee (Markets Group)
    Abstract: In August 2007, at the onset of the recent financial crisis, the Federal Reserve encouraged banks to borrow from the discount window (DW) but few did so. This lack of DW borrowing has been widely attributed to stigma?concerns that, if discount borrowing were detected, depositors, creditors, and analysts could interpret it as a sign of financial weakness. In this post, we review the history of the DW up until 2003, when the current DW regime was established, and argue that some past policies may have inadvertently contributed to a reluctance to borrow from the DW that persists to this day.
    Keywords: Discount Window Stigma History
    JEL: G2 G1

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