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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2019‒12‒16
43 papers chosen by |
| By: | Robert W. Dimand (Department of Economics, Brock University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship of Walras’s work to a particularly influential tradition of general equilibrium, that associated with the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics in Colorado in the 1930s and at the University of Chicago from 1939 to 1955, and its successor, the Cowles Foundation, at Yale University from 1955. Irving Fisher introduced general equilibrium analysis into North America with his 1891 Yale dissertation Mathematical Investigations in the Theory of Value and Prices (published 1892) and was responsible in 1892 for the ï¬ rst English translation of a monograph by Walras. Fisher was only able to obtain copies of books by Walras and Edgeworth when his thesis was almost ready for submission, discovering that he had independently reinvented a general equilibrium approach already developed by others, but went beyond Walras in constructing a hydraulic mechanism to simulate computation of general equilibrium and, before Pareto, in using indifference curves. Fisher was closely involved with Alfred Cowles in the Cowles Commission, the Econometric Society and Econometrica in the 1930s, promoting formal mathematical and statistical methods in economics, including drawing attention to the contributions of Walras, Edgeworth and Pareto. The ï¬ rst substantial, systematic work on general equilibrium at the Cowles Commission was in international trade, by Theodore Yntema, research director of the Cowles Commission from 1939 to 1942 and author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade (1932) and by Yntema’s student, Jacob Mosak, author of General Equilibrium Theory in International Trade (1944). A subsequent, much better-known body of work on existence of general equilibrium at Cowles was by Kenneth Arrow and Gerard Debreu (initially independently but leading to a major joint publication) and by Lionel McKenzie, all three associated with the Cowles Commission in Chicago in the early 1950s. After Cowles moved to Yale, the focus of general equilibrium research at the Cowles Foundation was Herbert Scarf’s pioneering work on computable general equilibrium (which he linked to Fisher’s earlier attempt, ï¬ rst presenting his approach in his contribution to Ten Economic Studies in the Tradition of Irving Fisher, 1967). Fisher and then the Cowles Commission were the channel through which Walrasian general equilibrium analysis entered North American economics. This paper is part of a larger history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation, commissioned by the Cowles Foundation. Presented at the 10th conference of the International Walras Association, University of Lausanne, 13-14 September 2019. I thank Amanar Akhabbar, Annie L. Cot, Cléo Chaussonery-Laïgouche and Harro Maas for helpful comments at the conference, and Daniel Sarech for his presentation which drew my attention to the writings of Firmin Oulès. |
| Keywords: | Irving Fisher, Cowles Commission, Leon Walras, General Equilibrium Analysis |
| JEL: | B21 B23 B31 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2205&r=all |
| By: | Nicholas Crafts; Alexander Klein |
| Abstract: | We re-examine the long-run geographical development of U.S. manufacturing industries using recent advances in spatial concentration measures. We construct spatially-weighted indices of the geographical concentration of U.S. manufacturing industries during the period 1880 to 1997 using data from the Census of Manufactures and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Doing so we improve upon the existing indices by taking into account industrial structure and checkerboard problem. Several important new results emerge. First, we find that average spatial concentration was much lower in the late 20th- than in the late 19th-century and that this was the outcome of a continuing reduction over time. Second, spatial concentration of industries did not increase in early twentieth century as shown by traditional indices but rather declined, implying that we do not find an inverted-U shape pattern of long-run spatial concentration. Third, the persistent tendency to greater spatial dispersion was characteristic of most manufacturing industries. Fourth, even so, economically and statistically significant spatial concentration was pervasive throughout this period. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing belt; spatial concentration; transport costs |
| JEL: | N62 N92 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1910&r=all |
| By: | Antoine Parent (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | We examine equity market integration for 17 countries from 1913-2018. We use network analysis to measure the evolution of global stock market integration as well as stock market integration between and across countries. The empirical results suggest that long-run stock market integration looks like an unstable hook. Equity market integration first peaked in 1913 during the first era of globalization (1870-1913) when unfettered markets ruled the day. Integration declined over the next 60 years as countries experienced the Great Depression and shunned international capital markets. The end of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s ushered in the second period of globalization. Our empirical analysis suggests that stock market integration in the recent period of globalization has surpassed the first era of globalization in the last 10 years and currently has the highest level of equity market integration and network instability in world history. |
| JEL: | C3 F36 G15 N20 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4i5altstgb8m7r2ltn240ldvb8&r=all |
| By: | Quynh, Bui Dieu; Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | The mentioning of Hanoi – the capital city of Vietnam and the land of thousand years of civilization – depicts among both locals and tourists the image of the ‘Sword Lake’ with its ancient ‘Turtle Tower’ and the charming Old Quarter with its preserved shop-houses lying along small ancient commercial alleys. The houses in the old quarter constructed over a century ago which feature tube houses with inclined tile roofs and a blend of French architecture create the infusions of history and memory. One can easily find abundant research done on these townhouses, either in the collectibles of many authors, the quintessential drawings of talented painters, or in publications on the history of the Old Quarter. Among these, the recent work by Vuong et al. (2019) adds an extremely interesting view of the architectural features of Hanoi’s ancient townhouses as these features are viewed as dependent and independent variables. The study titled ‘Cultural evolution in Vietnam’s early 20th century: A Bayesian network analysis of Hanoi Franco- Chinese house designs’ aims to find traces of cultural evolution in the early 20th century in Vietnam and highlight the most notable elements that affect the Vietnamese people’s perception of cultural evolutions. |
| Date: | 2019–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ezm2d&r=all |
| By: | Santucci, Larry (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | One of the tools used by early 20th century developers, builders, and white homeowners to prevent African Americans from accessing parts of the residential real estate market was the racially restrictive covenant. In this paper, we present a newly constructed spatial data set of properties in the city of Philadelphia with deeds that contained a racially restrictive covenant at any time from 1920 to 1932. To date, we have reviewed hundreds of thousands of property deeds and identified nearly 4,000 instances in which a racial covenant had been included in the deed. The covenanted properties formed an invisible barrier to less densely populated areas sought after by white residents and around predominantly white neighborhoods throughout the city. We present the data in a series of geospatial maps and discuss plans for future enhancements to the data set. |
| Keywords: | racially restrictive covenants; exclusionary zoning; segregation; race; property; Philadelphia |
| JEL: | J15 K11 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpdp:19-05&r=all |
| By: | Robert W. Dimand (Department of Economics, Brock University) |
| Abstract: | Founded in 1932 by a newspaper heir disillusioned by the failure of forecasters to predict the Great Crash, the Cowles Commission promoted the use of formal mathematical and statistical methods in economics, initially through summer research conferences in Colorado and through support of the Econometric Society (of which Alfred Cowles was secretary-treasurer for decades). After moving to the University of Chicago in 1939, the Cowles Commission sponsored works, many later honored with Nobel Prizes but at the time out of the mainstream of economics, by Haavelmo, Hurwicz and Koopmans on econometrics, Arrow and Debreu on general equilibrium, Yntema and Mosak on general equilibrium in international trade theory, Arrow on social choice, Koopmans on activity analysis, Klein on macroeconometric modelling, Lange, Marschak and Patinkin on macroeconomic theory, and Markowitz on portfolio choice, but came into intense methodological, ideological and personal conflict with the emerging “Chicago school.†This conflict led the Cowles Commission to move to Yale in 1955 as the Cowles Foundation, directed by James Tobin (who had declined to move to Chicago to direct it). The Cowles Foundation remained a leader in the more technical areas of economics, notably with Tobin’s “Yale school†of monetary theory, Scarf’s computable general equilibrium, Shubik in game theory, and later Phillips and Andrews in econometric theory but as formal methods in economic theory and econometrics pervaded the discipline of economics, Cowles (like the Econometric Society) became less distinct from the rest of economics. This entry is part of an archivally-based history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation commissioned by the Cowles Foundation. This paper is the entry on “The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics†in The New Palgrave Online https://link.springer.com/referencework/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5 and is included as a Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper by the kind permission of Springer Nature. |
| Keywords: | Cowles Commission, Formalism in economics, Mathematics in economics, Cowles approach to econometrics |
| JEL: | B23 B41 C01 C02 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2207&r=all |
| By: | Hanh, Vu Thi; Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | History is written in textbooks but is indubitably remembered through cultural artifacts and architecture. This is particularly the case when one thinks of Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam, where its thousands of years of ancient history can be found in the old citadels, and more than half a century of French colonialism can be glimpsed in the Old Quarter houses. Many of these structures have survived the brutality of wars and now feed into the nostalgia of French aesthetic. Yet, in what way can we come to gain greater insight into a cultural space where there is an interconnection between religion, house designs, and forms of feeling? One can find an answer to this question in a newly-published scientific research article titled “Cultural evolution in Vietnam's early 20th century: A Bayesian networks analysis of Hanoi Franco-Chinese house designs” in the Social Sciences and Humanities Open journal of Elsevier. |
| Date: | 2019–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4gtxw&r=all |
| By: | Stuart, Bryan (George Washington University); Taylor, Evan J. (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how birth town migration networks affected long-run location decisions during historical U.S. migration episodes. We develop a new method to estimate the strength of migration networks for each receiving and sending location. Our estimates imply that when one randomly chosen African American moved from a Southern birth town to a destination county, then 1.9 additional black migrants made the same move on average. For white migrants from the Great Plains, the average is only 0.4. Networks were particularly important in connecting black migrants with attractive employment opportunities and played a larger role in less costly moves. |
| Keywords: | migration networks, location decisions, social interactions, Great Migration |
| JEL: | J61 N32 O15 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12709&r=all |
| By: | Patrice ABRY (Université de Lyon (UdL)); Cécile Bastidon (Université de Toulon et du Var (UTLN)); Pierre BORGNAT (Université de Lyon (UdL)); Pablo Jensen (Institut des Systèmes Complexes Rhône-alpes); Antoine Parent (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Assessing world-wide financial integration constitutes a recurrent challenge in macroeconometrics, often addressed by visual inspections searching for data patterns. Econophysics literature enables us to build complementary, data-driven measures of financial integration using graphs. The present contribution investigates the potential and interests of a novel 3-step approach that combines several state-of-the-art procedures to i) compute graph-based representations of the multivariate dependence structure of asset prices time series representing the financial states of 32 countries world-wide (1955-2015); ii) compute time series of 5 graph-based indices that characterize the time evolution of the topologies of the graph; iii) segment these time evolutions in piece-wise constant eras, using an optimization framework constructed on a multivariate multi-norm total variation penalized functional. The method shows first that it is possible to find endogenous stable eras of world-wide financial integration. Then, our results suggest that the most relevant globalization eras would be based on the historical patterns of global capital flows, while the major regulatory events of the 1970s would only appear as a cause of sub-segmentation. |
| Keywords: | Graph topology; Time segmentation; Multivariate time series; Econophysics |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/ps168627s85g86i5u1aj5akpm&r=all |
| By: | Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | In a historical perspective, the stabilization policy regime in Sweden is in a state of constant change, affected by economic crises, international impulses, domestic politics, and developments in macroeconomic theory. Economists have been deeply involved in this process. The current framework for monetary and fiscal policy, with an independent central bank focusing on inflation targeting, and a rule-based fiscal policy, is not the final stage of this process. Future crises will once again change the goals, the instruments, and the institutional framework. In a historical perspective, the rapid expansion of the financial system, with the accompanying accumulation of private debt and high rates of asset inflation, stands out as a likely cause behind the next crisis. The next crisis will be followed by yet another step in the perennial pursuit of a better stabilization policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; fiscal policy; gold standard; price-level targeting; inflation targeting; financial repression; the Riksbank; Sweden |
| JEL: | E12 E30 E60 G01 H63 N14 |
| Date: | 2019–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2019_020&r=all |
| By: | Bertrand Garbinti (Banque de France, Crest); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (Univ Lyon, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, GATE UMR 5824, F-69342 Lyon, France); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Measuring and understanding the evolution of wealth inequality is a key challenge for researchers, policy makers, and the general public. This paper breaks new ground on this topic by presenting a new method to estimate and study wealth inequality. This method combines fiscal data with household surveys and national accounts in order to provide annual wealth distribution series, with detailed breakdowns by percentiles, age and assets. Using the case of France as an illustration, we show that the resulting series can be used to better analyze the evolution and the determinants of wealth inequality dynamics over the 1970-2014 period. We show that the decline in wealth inequality ends in the early 1980s, marking the beginning of a rise in the top 1% wealth share, though with significant fluctuations due largely to asset price movements. Rising inequality in saving rates coupled with highly stratified rates of returns has led to rising wealth concentration in spite of the opposing effect of house price increases. We develop a simple simulation model highlighting how changes in the combination of unequal saving rates, rates of return and labor earnings that occurred in the early 1980s generated large multiplicative effects that led to radically different steady-state levels of wealth inequality. Taking advantage of the joint distribution of income and wealth, we show that top wealth holders are almost exclusively top capital earners, and less and less are made up of top labor earners; it has become increasingly difficult in recent decades to access top wealth groups with one’s labor income only. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, wealth inequality, gender inequality |
| JEL: | D31 E01 E21 N3 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1935&r=all |
| By: | Paul Gaggl; Rowena Gray; Ioana Marinescu; Miguel Morin |
| Abstract: | Electricity is a general purpose technology and the catalyst for the second industrial revolution. Developing countries are currently making huge investments in electrification, with a view to achieving structural change. What does history say about its impact on the structure of employment? We use U.S. Census data from 1910 to 1940 and measure electrification with the length of higher-voltage electricity lines. Instrumenting for electrification using hydroelectric potential, we find that the average expansion of high-voltage transmission lines between 1910 and 1940 increased the share of operatives in a county by 3.3 percentage points and decreased the share of farmers by 2.1 percentage points. Electrification can explain 50.5% of the total increase in operatives, and 18.1% of the total decrease in farmers between 1910 and 1940. At the industry level, electrification drove 15.7% of the decline in the share of agricultural employment and 28.4% of the increase in the share of manufacturing employment between 1910 and 1940. Electrification was thus a key driver of structural transformation in the U.S. economy. |
| JEL: | E24 J24 N32 N72 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26477&r=all |
| By: | Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, Cléo (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | The paper explores why and how economists entered the courtrooms as expert witnesses in employment discrimination cases in the US. The main sources are published legal decisions. I analyze the courts’ and economists’ discourses on the use of a specific method, multiple regression analysis in relation to litigation history, academic debates, and the institutional settings of expertise within the courts. I first show how the early reception of the method in the late 1970s did not involve systematic rejection from the courts but rather a large amount of skepticism. I then illustrate how economic theory underlying the method was progressively introduced in the “judicial tool-kit” and how the debates in the courtrooms relates to the debates in academia in the 1980s. Finally, by 1989, practical and ethical questions regarding the institutional settings of experts’ testimony took center stage, reflecting the increasing professionalization of forensic economics. |
| Date: | 2019–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:sxg3k&r=all |
| By: | Fukao, Kyoji (Hitotsubashi University); Paul, Saumik (Newcastle University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of the long-run structural transformation in Japan. We use a dynamic input-output framework that decomposes the reallocation of the total output across sectors into two components: the Engel effect (demand side) and the Baumol effect (supply side). To perform this task, we employ 13 seven-sector input-output tables spanning 100 years (1885 to 1985). The results show that the Engel effect was the key explanatory factor in more than 60% of the sector-period cases in the pre-WWII period, while the Baumol effect drove structural transformation in more than 75% of such cases in the post-WWII period. Detailed decomposition results suggest that in most of the sectors (agriculture, commerce and services, food, textiles and transport, communication and utilities), changes in private consumption were the dominant force behind the demand-side explanations. The Engel effect was found to be the strongest in the commerce and services sector, which contributed to the rapid growth of GDP in Japan throughout the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | long-run structural transformation, the Engel effect, Baumol's cost disease effect, sectoral productivity growth |
| JEL: | O40 O10 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12727&r=all |
| By: | Bertrand Garbinti (Banque de France, Crest); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (Univ Lyon, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, GATE UMR 5824, F-69342 Lyon, France) |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose un éclairage sur l’évolution de longue période des inégalités de revenu, de patrimoine et de leur lien en France. Après une forte baisse des inégalités qui avait commencé au début de la première guerre mondiale, une tendance inégalitaire est apparue (et se poursuit) depuis le milieu des années 1980. La perspective historique permet d’illustrer comment de faibles changements dans les inégalités de taux d’épargne, de rendement ou de revenu du travail peuvent avoir de forts effets de long terme sur la concentration du patrimoine. Deux autres grandes tendances s’observent depuis les années 1970. L’une est la baisse de l’écart des revenus du travail entre femmes et hommes – même s’il reste élevé. L’autre est la difficulté accrue, pour les détenteurs de seuls revenus du travail, d’accéder aux plus hauts patrimoines. Enfin, nos comparaisons entre la France et les États-Unis montrent que les inégalités de patrimoine et de revenu étaient comparables voire plus faibles aux États-Unis avant les années 1970. Ce pays est devenu nettement plus inégalitaire désormais. |
| Keywords: | inégalités de revenu, inégalités de patrimoine, inégalités entre femmes et hommes |
| JEL: | D31 E01 E21 N3 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1934&r=all |
| By: | Bellis, Kouroch |
| Abstract: | Kouroch BELLIS, Contrat et responsabilité civile : pour un système juste en droit des obligations, Revue juridique Thémis de l’Université de Montréal (RJTUM), 2018, vol. 52, no 2, prépublication. RÉSUMÉ Alors que le second volet de la réforme du droit français des obligations est en cours, il est utile de revenir sur les rapports entre les concepts de contrat et de responsabilité. La responsabilité contractuelle est bien fondée. Le concept et son régime juridique se retrouvent tout au long de l’histoire du droit, depuis Rome. Le gonflement de ses effets (contenu obligationnel exorbitant, étendue de la réparation…) est principalement dû au principe de non-cumul des responsabilités contractuelle et délictuelle. La seule chose qui compte est le caractère juste de la réparation des conséquences dommageables d’un manquement contractuel fautif. Par ailleurs, tout créancier doit pouvoir demander, dans un même temps, l’exécution forcée par équivalent de sa créance contractuelle. Le droit français a historiquement refusé un tel concept, mais il découle en réalité de la force obligatoire du contrat. Il découle aussi de la logique économique du contrat, puisque l’économie de marché crée du profit à partir de l’échange des biens. Le principe du concours des responsabilités délictuelle et contractuelle doit enfin être affirmé. Le principe actuel de non-cumul est néfaste et facteur d’injustice à bien des égards, notamment parce qu’il aboutit à traiter différemment des situations relativement semblables, dans le cadre d’un droit compliqué. Or, le principe de non-cumul est le fruit d’un courant doctrinal du XIXe siècle qui a émergé à partir de questions que nous avons oubliées de nos jours. La responsabilité civile est la conséquence de la violation d’une obligation civile de manière à manquer au devoir général de veiller à ne pas nuire à autrui (neminem laedere). Elle est contractuelle lorsque cette obligation est issue d’un contrat en particulier et ce qu’on appelle aujourd’hui la responsabilité délictuelle ou extracontractuelle est le droit commun de la responsabilité civile. Lorsqu’il n’y a pas de faute, le devoir de veiller à ne pas nuire à autrui entraine obligation de garantir les dommages résultant des risques pris pour autrui dans le but d’obtenir un profit personnel. Responsabilité et garantie peuvent se regrouper dans le concept d’imputabilité. ABSTRACT While reform of the French law of obligations is currently going through its second phase, it is useful to rethink the relationship between the concepts of contract and liability. Contractual liability is legitimate. The concept and its rules can be seen throughout legal history, since Rome. The inflation of its consequences (exorbitant obligational content, extended indemnification...) is mainly a consequence of the principle of non-cumulation of contractual and delictual liability. The only thing that counts is the fairness of indemnification of the prejudicial consequences of a wrongful breach of contract. Besides, every creditor should have the right to demand, at the same time, the “coerced execution by equivalence” (exécution forcée par equivalent) of the obligation. French law has historically rejected such a concept, but it actually stems from the obligatory force of contracts. It also flows from the economic rationale of contracts, since the market economy creates profit from the exchange of goods. The principle of conjunction of delictual and contractual liabilities must finally be asserted. The current non-cumulation principle is in many ways a factor of harm and injustice, primarily because it results in assigning different results to similar situations and unnecessarily complicates the law. Yet, the non-cumulation principle is the fruit of a doctrinal trend of the 19th century that arose from issues that we have forgotten nowadays. Civil “responsibility” (responsabilité) is the consequence of the violation of a civil obligation so that there is a breach in the general duty of care to not to do harm to others (neminem laedere). That “responsibility” is contractual when the obligation results from a particular contract and what we call nowadays delictual or extracontractual responsibility is the common law (droit commun) of civil responsibility. When there is no fault, the duty of care not to harm others brings about the obligation to “guarantee” the damages resulting from the risks imposed on others in the pursuit of personal profits. Responsibility and guarantee (garantie) can be gathered together under the concept of liability (imputabilité). |
| Date: | 2018–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qgux6&r=all |
| By: | Vuong, Quan-Hoang; La, Viet-Phuong; Ho, Tung Manh; Nguyen, Hong-Kong T.; Vuong, Thu-Trang; Hanh, Vu Thi; Hoàng, NGUYỄN Minh; Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | This research employs the Bayesian network modeling approach, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, to learn about the role of lies and violence in teachings of major religions, using a unique dataset extracted from long-standing Vietnamese folktales. The results indicate that, although lying and violent acts augur negative consequences for those who commit them, their associations with core religious values diverge in the final outcome for the folktale characters. Lying that serves a religious mission of either Confucianism or Taoism (but not Buddhism) brings a positive outcome to a character (βT_and_Lie_O= 2.23; βC_and_Lie_O= 1.47; βT_and_Lie_O= 2.23). A violent act committed to serving Buddhist missions results in a happy ending for the committer (βB_and_Viol_O= 2.55). What is highlighted here is a glaring double standard in the interpretation and practice of the three teachings: the very virtuous outcomes being preached, whether that be compassion and meditation in Buddhism, societal order in Confucianism, or natural harmony in Taoism, appear to accommodate two universal vices—violence in Buddhism and lying in the latter two. These findings contribute to a host of studies aimed at making sense of contradictory human behaviors, adding the role of religious teachings in addition to cognition in belief maintenance and motivated reasoning in discounting counterargument. |
| Date: | 2019–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:nb7tg&r=all |
| By: | D. Mark Anderson; Kerwin Kofi Charles; Daniel I. Rees; Tianyi Wang |
| Abstract: | According to Troesken (2004), efforts to purify municipal water supplies at the turn of the 20th century dramatically improved the relative health of blacks. There is, however, little empirical evidence to support the Troesken hypothesis. Using city-level data published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the period 1906-1938, we explore the relationship between water purification efforts and the black-white infant mortality gap. Our results suggest that, while water filtration was effective across the board, adding chlorine to the water supply reduced mortality only among black infants. Specifically, chlorination is associated with an 11 percent reduction in black infant mortality and a 13 percent reduction in the black-white infant mortality gap. We also find that chlorination led to a substantial reduction in the black-white diarrhea mortality gap among children under the age of 2, although this estimate is measured with less precision. |
| JEL: | I18 J11 J15 N3 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26489&r=all |
| By: | Anh, Tran Ha; Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | In the age of rapid urbanization and digitization, it is astounding that we can still find in Vietnam, especially around its capital city Hanoi, remnants of the thousand years of Chinese influence, a century of French colonialism, and over two decades of war against the Americans. |
| Date: | 2019–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:n983s&r=all |
| By: | Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi); Hoang, Hanh Phuong (Vietnam National Institute of Educational Sciences); Vuong, Thu-Trang |
| Abstract: | And not just look; one needs to know where to look as well. In this case: look upwards, on the second floor of the old townhouses, which has not been replaced by showcasing pavilions or modern glass doors. Some houses have been repainted, but the architecture – the form of the story, the shapes, and construction of the balconies, the decorating sculptures – still exudes a century-old familiarity. So it turns out that Phố Phái, though no longer intact, is still present here. |
| Date: | 2019–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ey4t9&r=all |
| By: | Kamil Kowalski (University of Lodz); Rafal Matera (University of Lodz); Mariusz E. Sokolowicz (University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we try to identify the institutional offers for emigrants and evaluate the role of immigrants at the time of the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century history of three cities where the dynamic growth and the ‘take-offs’ depended largely on newcomers. In all cases, the industry was the main factor that led to the ‘take-off’ in terms of the number of inhabitants and also the creation of the bourgeoisie as a socio-economic class. In our paper we reveal key institutional and geographical factors that accelerated the unprecedent waves of immigrants (with different strengths in different cities) to these Eastern European ‘Manchesters’ and made their role central to urban economic development. Their activity was the result of advantageous institutional circumstances connected with changes in the borders, the appearance of governments, and new local management being strictly related to changes in customs policy or extraordinary international situations. |
| Keywords: | J15, J61, K37, N23 |
| Date: | 2019–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:5/2019&r=all |
| By: | Ricardo Dahis; Emily Nix; Nancy Qian |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that many black males experienced a change in racial classification to white in the United States, 1880 – 1940, while changes in racial classification were negligible for other races. We provide a rich set of descriptive evidence on the lives of black men “passing” for white, such as their patterns of marriage, children, the passing of spouses and children, migration and income. |
| JEL: | J1 J15 N3 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26465&r=all |
| By: | Nicolas Brouard |
| Abstract: | In this chapter we introduce the backward probability and the backward prevalence. Both measures are of minor interest compared to forward probability and forward prevalence; however, they can bring a better understanding of the past population dynamic. More- over, we show that through the calculation of backward probabilities, one can reconstruct prevalences at any age for older generations. Here, the demographic interest lies in the comparison of the three prevalences: cross-sectional, forward, and backward. In order to accomplish our task, we first review theories of Markov chains with (i) an age- independent transition matrix and, (ii) when transitions vary with age. The second theory leads to an interesting property called “weak ergodicity” that allows us to predict future prevalences for younger generations. It is important to mention here that backward probability was rapidly defined in 1980 (Brouard, 1980) using longitudinal information of French women’s participation in economic activity between 1977 and 1978, and most results presented in the publication of 1980 are reviewed for this study. This chapter also shows that in a stationary multistate population, cross-sectional, forward, and backward prevalences are identical at each age. If they are not, as in the case of the economic activity of French women which changed after the 1968s revolution (women’s liberation, contraception, and abortion laws), our approach enables a clearer, faster, and synthetic analysis of these changes without the need to wait 20 or 30 years until these women meave the labor market. Then, we review demographic tools, now widely used in mortality analysis that compare “cross-sectional prevalence of survival” and period mortality table. We extend them to multistates methods, particularly to methods developed in the mid-1990s to estimate disability-free life expectancies. |
| Keywords: | Backward prevalence, DYNAMIQUE DE LA POPULATION / POPULATION DYNAMICS, PROBABILITE / PROBABILITY, CHAINE DE MARKOV / MARKOV CHAINS, METHODOLOGIE / METHODOLOGY, PREVALENCE / PREVALENCE, FRANCE / FRANCE, TRAVAIL DES FEMMES / FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, TAUX D'ACTIVITE / ACTIVITY RATIO, TABLE DE MORTALITE / LIFE TABLES |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:awltfxmuxmqcvuzmm9ui&r=all |
| By: | Lara Cockx, Giulia Meloni, Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | Spirits represent around 50% of global alcohol consumption. This sector is much less studied than other alcohol beverages such as wine or beer. This paper reviews the economic history of spirits and analyses recent trends in the spirits markets. The technology to produce spirits is more complex than for wine or beer. Distillation was known in ancient Chinese, Indian, Greek and Egyptian societies, but it took innovations by the Arabs to distil alcohol. Initially this alcohol was used for medicinal purposes. Only in the middle ages did spirits become a widespread drink and did commercial production and markets. The Industrial Revolution created a large consumer market and reduced the cost of spirits, contributing to excess consumption and alcoholism. Governments have intervened extensively in spirits markets to reduce excessive consumption and to raise taxes. There have been significant changes in spirits consumption and trade over time. Over the past 50 years, the share of spirits in global alcohol consumption increased from around 30% to around 50%. In the past decades there was strong growth in emerging markets, including in China and India. The spirits industry has concentrated, but less so than e.g. the brewery industry. Recent developments in the spirits industry include premiumization, the growth of craft spirits and the introduction of terroir for spirits. |
| Keywords: | spirits, distillation technology, globalization and convergence of alcohol preferences, alcohol and health, alcohol regulations, craft and industry concentration |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:41719&r=all |
| By: | Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi); Anh, Ho Hoang |
| Abstract: | Thoughts on 2019 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, which has been awarded to Abhijit Banerjee (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA), Esther Duflo (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA) and Michael Kremer (Harvard University, Cambridge, USA). Published in EASE Vietnam SciComm System: https://sc.sshpa.com/post/5568 |
| Date: | 2019–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5nsbu&r=all |
| By: | Gathmann, Christina (Heidelberg University) |
| Abstract: | There has been a longstanding debate about the link between political representation and health. In this article, I provide novel evidence that electoral reforms that shifted from a majoritarian to a proportional system of voter representation generated substantive health benefits for the general population. Using the exemplary case of Switzerland, I first show that the spread of proportional representation between 1890 and 1950 increased political participation and gave the working class, represented by left-wing parties, greater weight in the political process. Consistent with theories of the electoral system, proportional representation increased public investments, esp. in basic education, with few effects on redistribution or total spending. Based on comprehensive archival mortality statistics since 1890, I then demonstrate that the observed shifts in representation and public finances were associated with substantial declines in child mortality by 15% and in mortality from infectious diseases, the major killer of the time, by 10-15%. |
| Keywords: | electoral system, proportional representation, mortality, health, Switzerland |
| JEL: | N33 N34 I14 H51 D72 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12729&r=all |
| By: | Didier Aubert (Unité d'économie et sociologie rurales de rennes - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); J Pierre Bompard; Bernard Desbrosses; Yves Léon (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Gilles Postel-Vinay; P. Rio (Independent) |
| Abstract: | Depuis la dernière guerre le Crédit Agricole Mutuel (CAM) a connu un développement exceptionnel. Ainsi, dans les années 1960, sa part dans les crédits distribués par l'ensemble des banques double-t-elle : n'atteignant pas 10 % en 1960, elle dépasse 20 % en 1970, Dans le même temps sa progression dans la collecte des ressources est tout aussi spectaculaire. Ceci s'explique, entre autres, par le fait que Le CAM a disposé d'avantages incontestables : le monopole de La.distribution de prêts bonifiés aux agriculteurs avec ses conséquences directes et indirectes (notamment la possibilité de consentir des taux avantageux pour les crédits non bonifiés), sa liberté par rapport aux structures de direction du crédit, sa situation fiscale. A la fin des années 60 la puissance ainsi acquise fait apparaître bien étroit le champ de compétence traditionnel du CAM. |
| Keywords: | Crédit agricole |
| Date: | 2019–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02327566&r=all |
| By: | Walker Hanlon; Taylor Jaworski |
| Abstract: | Can granting IP protection to producers of one good affect the innovation rate in other related goods? To answer this question we exploit a unique policy experiment in the inter-war military aircraft industry. Airframe designs had little IP protection before 1926, but changes passed by Congress in 1926 provided airframe manufacturers with enhanced property rights over the new designs they produced. We show that granting property rights to airframe producers increased innovation in airframes, but slowed down innovation in aero-engines, a complementary good where there was no change in the availability of IP protection. We propose and test a simple theory that explains these patterns. |
| JEL: | N72 O34 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26490&r=all |
| By: | Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, Cléo (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | The paper describes the personal and intellectual trajectories of Millicent Fawcett, Beatrice Webb and Eleanor Rathbone that led them to first oppose the "equal pay for equal work" principle and to support it after the first world war. I focus on their changing economic arguments in relation to their perception of the "facts" regarding women's work and wages during the war effort. |
| Date: | 2019–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8cq9j&r=all |
| By: | Cortés-Sánchez, Julián David (Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | Research on business, management and accounting (BMA) in the past century has been overwhelming. Regardless of its significance, regions such as Ibero-America have been overlooked from exhaustive studies on bibliometrics in the subject of BMA. Here, a bibliometric outlook of the subject of BMA in Ibero-America was conducted by analyzing the ten most cited documents in BMA in each country from 1996 to 2017 using the citation database Scopus. The main findings showed: a rapid increase in documents’ production; both Spain and Portugal domain the overall documents’ production and citations; most of the documents are pay-walled; the most-desired journal in the region is also the most- suspicious; a Pareto distribution in both citations by documents and authors by documents; and institutional status has a significant effect on AACSB accreditation. |
| Date: | 2019–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cqa3z&r=all |
| By: | Luciano Segreto |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with some aspects of the development of the Compagnie Internationale des Wagons-Lits (CIWL) between the early 1890s and the 1930s. The paper critically highlights the traditional approaches to define the nationality of the firm (the place of incorporation of a company, the nationality of the shareholders or that one of the members of the board of directors). It proposes a new one, looking at the instrument used by the states –national interest –to influence the balance of power and the strategies of the company. This approach, largely used by social scientists of political science and international relations, can offer new tools also to business historians when approaching the issue of the nationality of the firm. |
| Keywords: | Compagnie Internationale des Wagons-Lits, Nationality of the firm, National interest, State intervention |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2019_30.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | For many decades, Ingemar Ståhl was a well-known economist in Sweden. He introduced new perspectives into research, teaching and public debate. He made his presence felt in areas as diverse as housing policy, defense economics, energy policy, financial economics, industrial policy, higher education, union controlled wage earner funds, law and economics, health-care economics and taxation. He advocated a public choice perspective which in his view provided a more realistic interpretation of the behavior of politicians and bureaucrats than that provided by traditional welfare economics. As an active participant in the public debate, he provided a pungent commentary on a wide range of issues. He contributed to the shift in Swedish economic policy from interventionist controls and collectivist systems inspired by Social-Democratic ideology to market-oriented and liberal solutions. Several of his proposals, most prominently the present system of student finance remain part of current Swedish public policy. |
| Keywords: | Public choice; welfare economics; property rights; socialism; liberalism; welfare state; Sweden |
| JEL: | A11 B21 D51 D72 H43 I22 J51 L51 P48 Q18 |
| Date: | 2019–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2019_019&r=all |
| By: | Todd Gardner |
| Abstract: | The geographic coding used in the 1960 decennial census was unique to that year. State, county, place and subcounty geographic units of residence require only a simple conversion, but the place of work and migration geography is more complicated. The 1960 made use of Universal Area Codes, which combined counties with selected places and Minor Civil Divisions into a single coding system. This technical note describes how to interpret the place of work and migration variables and convert the information into more readily comparable geographic codes. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:19-03&r=all |
| By: | Guénhaël Jegouzo (UR 0122 Unité d'économie et sociologie rurales de Rennes -) |
| Abstract: | On suppose souvent que l'accroissement du chômage au cours des dix dernières années a ralenti les départs hors de l'agriculture, mais les forces habituelles de "répulsion" ont continué à s'exercer. Malgré leurs limites, des évaluations extraites d'enquêtes de I'INSEE laissent penser - dans l'attente de vérifications ultérieures - que la proportion d'actifs agricoles parmi les fils d'agriculteurs serait, à l'âge de 20-24 ans et 25-29 ans' un peu plus élevé en 1982 qu'en 1977. La tendance antérieure à l'accroissement de l'exode se serait sinon inversée, tout au moins interrompue. Chez les filles le mouvement est plus incertain. Et l'exode masculin est resté important. Le maintien à la terre continue à être moins fréquent quand l'instruction est plus élevée, même si les départs sont moins nombreux après une formation longue ou supérieure. |
| Keywords: | EXODE RURAL,MAINTIEN A LA TERRE,JEUNESSE RURALE,FORMATION |
| Date: | 2019–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02332557&r=all |
| By: | Bernhardt, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | Die Landtagswahlen in Brandenburg, Sachsen und Thüringen vom 1. September und 27. Oktober 2019 sprechen ihre eigene, beredte Sprache. Das muss ich hier im Einzelnen nicht wiederholen und / oder ausdeuten. Das ist in aller Breite geschehen. Statistische Zahlen lassen sich überall nachlesen, die unterschiedlichen (Be-)Wertungen und Schlussfolgerungen auch. Das Wahlergebnis und die Diskussionen und Veröffentlichungen aus / in den letzten Wochen / Monaten vor und nach den Wahlen haben die Probleme wie in einem Brennglas noch einmal deutlich werden lassen. Das Thema meines gleichnamigen Vortrags in Leipzig am 29. Mai 2019 - Einheit in Zweiheit? - ist / war mit einem Fragezeichen versehen. Jetzt ist es wohl richtiger, ein Ausrufezeichen zu setzen. Untergangsstimmung ist gleichwohl nicht angezeigt und hilft auch nicht weiter, nicht im Osten und nicht im Westen. Die Menschen / Bürger in Brandenburg, Sachsen und Thüringen haben gezeigt, dass sie Demokratie "können": es waren weithin Persönlichkeits- und keine Parteiwahlen: Woidke (SPD), Kretschmer (CDU) und Ramelow (Die Linke); was will man mehr? |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:leiwps:164&r=all |
| By: | Luciano Segreto |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance, Economic Institutions, Economic Democracy, Voting Rights, Regulation |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2019_31.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Yasenov, Vasil; Peri, Giovanni; Lee, Jongkwan |
| Abstract: | We examine the labor market consequences of an extensive campaign repatriating around 400,000 Mexicans in 1929-34. To identify a causal effect, we instrument county level repatriations with the existence of a railway line to Mexico interacted with the size of the Mexican communities in 1910. Using individual linked data we find that Mexican repatriations reduced employment of native incumbent workers and resulted in their occupational downgrading. However, using a repeated cross section of county level data, we find attenuated and non-significant employment effects and amplified wage downgrading. We show that this is due to selective in- and out-migration of natives. |
| Date: | 2019–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:epyzh&r=all |
| By: | Kyle F. Herkenhoff; Gajendran Raveendranathan |
| Abstract: | How are the welfare costs from monopoly distributed across U.S. households? We answer this question for the U.S. credit card industry, which is highly concentrated, charges interest rates that are 3.4 to 8.8 percentage points above perfectly competitive pricing, and has repeatedly lost antitrust lawsuits. We depart from existing competitive models by integrating oligopolistic lenders into a heterogeneous agent, defaultable debt framework. Our model accounts for 20 to 50 percent of the spreads observed in the data. Welfare gains from competitive reforms in the 1970s are equivalent to a one-time transfer worth between 0.24 and 1.66 percent of GDP. Along the transition path, 93 percent of individuals are better off. Poor households benefit from increased consumption smoothing, while rich households benefit from higher general equilibrium interest rates on savings. Transitioning from 1970 to 2016 levels of competition yields welfare gains equivalent to a one-time transfer worth between 1.87 and 3.20 percent of GDP. Lastly, homogeneous interest rate caps in 2016 deliver limited welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | Welfare costs of monopoly; consumer credit; competition; welfare |
| JEL: | D14 D43 D60 E21 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2019-13&r=all |
| By: | Foote, Christopher L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Loewenstein, Lara (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Willen, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | The application of information technology to finance, or “fintech,” is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher debt-to-income ratios than previous underwriting guidelines would have allowed. In this way, technology brought about an exogenous change in lending standards that was especially relevant for borrowers with low current incomes relative to their expected future incomes—in particular, young college graduates. By contrast, the data suggest that the credit expansion during the 2000s housing boom was an endogenous response to widespread expectations of higher future house prices, as average mortgage sizes rose for borrowers across the entire income distribution. |
| Keywords: | mortgage underwriting; housing cycle; technological change; credit boom |
| JEL: | C55 D53 G21 L85 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2019–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:19-11&r=all |
| By: | Krapp, Mario (University of Cambridge); Beyer, Robert; Edmundson, Stephen L.; Valdes, Paul J; Manica, Andrea (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | A detailed and accurate reconstruction of past climate is essential in understanding the drivers that have shaped species, including our own, and their habitats. However, spatially-detailed climate reconstructions that continuously cover the Quaternary do not yet exist, mainly because no paleoclimate model can reconstruct regional-scale dynamics over geological time scales. Here we develop a new approach, the Global Climate Model Emulator (GCMET), which reconstructs the climate of the last 800 thousand years with unprecedented spatial detail. GCMET captures the temporal dynamics of glacial-interglacial climates as an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity would whilst resolving the local dynamics with the accuracy of a Global Climate Model. It provides a new, unique resource to explore the climate of the Quaternary, which we use to investigate the long-term stability of major habitat types. We identify a number of stable pockets of habitat that have remained unchanged over the last 800 thousand years, acting as potential long-term evolutionary refugia. Thus, the highly detailed, comprehensive overview of climatic changes through time delivered by GCMET provides the needed resolution to quantify the role of long term habitat fragmentation in an ecological and anthropological context. |
| Date: | 2019–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:eartha:d5hfx&r=all |
| By: | Kuriakose, Francis; Joseph, Janssen |
| Abstract: | The article traces the origin of behavioural development economics and brings out the characteristics of this framework in public policy. |
| Keywords: | Behavioural Development Economics; Neoclassical Economics; Choice Architecture; Nudge; Public Policy |
| JEL: | O12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97079&r=all |
| By: | Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter |
| Abstract: | US elections are often interpreted in an anecdotal and person focused manner by media and commentators, while social science research consistently has found that economic conditions play a very large role, while others play a small one. An analysis US presidential and midterm elections 1948-2018 demonstrate that the presidential election of 2016 and the midterm elections of 2018 generally fits well into a logic that voters hold the presidential party responsible for the economic development, while there also is a cost of ruling. |
| Keywords: | US elections; economic voting; Donald Trump; US presidential election 2016; US midterm election 2018 |
| JEL: | D72 N12 N42 O51 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97297&r=all |
| By: | Gwaindepi, Abel (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Domestic revenue mobilization continues to feature on the agendas of international development agents and academic communities. There is, however, a strong focus on comparing the developed and developing countries with the aim of finding transferable lessons to the latter. Thus, most comparative studies default to comparing tax performances of developing countries with OECD averages. Interregional peer-to-peer or context-sensitive comparisons remain relatively unexplored. This paper compares the Sub-Saharan African countries (SSA) with the Latin American & Caribbean countries (LAC) since 1980. The paper focuses on tax efforts, revenue volatility and a context-sensitive analysis of the determinants of tax revenues. Using fiscal data from the International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD), the world development indicators (WDI) and other publicly available datasets, the paper finds that although the LAC countries are performing better on tax collection, they lag behind the SSA countries on tax efforts. Revenue volatility is higher on average for the SSA countries than for the LAC countries. By implementing a panel framework of 83 countries from both regions, the paper finds that the standard tax determinants behave as theoretically expected but only for the upper-middle-income countries that are relatively developed. The implication for policy is that custom-built and second-best reforms are more appropriate for the poorer countries than any ‘best practice’ from the developed regions. |
| Keywords: | fiscal capacity; taxation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Latin America; tax effort; revenue volatility; public revenues; developing regions; comparative analysis |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H27 N46 N47 |
| Date: | 2019–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0209&r=all |