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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2019‒10‒14
37 papers chosen by |
| By: | Baten, Jörg; Keywood, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We develop a new indicator for elite numeracy in order to investigate trends in European elite numeracy since the 6th century CE and describe its co-evolution with elite violence over this period. During the early medieval period, Western Europe had no advantage over the east, but the development of relative violence levels changed this. After implementing an instrumental variable strategy and a battery of robustness tests, we find a substantial relationship and conclude that violence had a detrimental impact on human capital formation. The drastic increase in human capital since the High Middle Ages was at least partially due to declining violence. |
| Keywords: | Early Modern Period; elite human capital; elite violence; Europe; Great Divergence; middle ages |
| JEL: | N00 N13 N33 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14013&r=all |
| By: | Cummins, Neil |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses a newly constructed individual level dataset of every English death and probate from 1892-2016. The estimated top wealth shares match closely existing estimates. However, this analysis clearly shows that the 20th century's `Great Equalization' of wealth stalled in mid-century. The probate rate, which captures the proportion of English with any significant wealth at death rose from 10% in the 1890s to 40% by 1950 and has stagnated to 2016. Despite the large declines in the wealth share of the top 1%, from 73% to 20%, the median English person died with almost nothing throughout. All changes in inequality after 1950 involve a reshuffling of wealth within the top 30%. Further, I find that a log-linear distribution fits the empirical data better than a Pareto power law. Finally, I show that the top wealth shares are increasingly and systematically male as one ascends in wealth, 1892- 1992, but this has equalized over the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | inequality; economic history; big data |
| JEL: | N00 N33 N34 D31 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101869&r=all |
| By: | Ruderman, Anne Elizabeth; Heller, Mark; Xue, Harry |
| Abstract: | Royal African Company Networks is a pilot project designed to explore the possibilities of using computational text analysis and GIS to investigate the correspondence of the Royal African Company, England’s late seventeenth-century African trade monopoly. Our project maps over 3,000 letters between the company’s main fort, Cape Coast Castle, in modern-day Ghana and the company’s ‘outforts,’ or smaller holdings on the coast. We then combine mapping with computational text analysis to draw out themes in the correspondence. We hope this project demonstrates the potential of bringing an interdisciplinary approach to historical analysis and serves as a stepping-stone for further exploration. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101030&r=all |
| By: | Leitão, Diogo; Pereira, Jaime; Pereira Santos, João; Tavares, José |
| Abstract: | The Spanish Civil War (July 1936 to April 1939) was a key event that paved the way for World War II, unfolding with unprecedented violence and uncertainty over the its outcome. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the events of the Spanish Civil War on the Portuguese stock returns. Portugal is a particularly interesting case for analysis given its geographical exposure and historical ties to Spain as well as its political ties to the Nationalist side. Unlike previous studies of stock market responses to World War II outcomes, in our period of analysis the world at large was at peace, allowing for a clearer attribution of causation. We examine investors' reactions to news from the Spanish War using a panel of weekly returns for firms listed on the Lisbon Stock market, after classifying a series of important developments of the Spanish Civil War, classified according to its nature â?? military or political, and which contender emerged as favored â?? the Republicans, on the left, or the Nationalists, on the right. We run dynamic specifications with firm and month fixed effects, controlling for the reference interest rate in London, and events in Portugal. Our results reveal that Spanish Civil War events affect returns negatively, especially events that are military in nature. When we break down our sample into overseas firms â?? those whose most significant assets were located in Africa â?? and non-overseas firms, the latter present more significant effects from the event variables, especially from the Pro-Republican military events. Our findings are robust to the different specifications and suggest that both general uncertainty and partisan preferences affect Portuguese returns. |
| Keywords: | economic history; financial markets; Spanish Civil War; stock price; uncertainty |
| JEL: | C12 C58 G12 N43 N83 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13990&r=all |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech, ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Antoine Missemer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency can be considered as a central pillar of global warming mitigation, with important co-benefits, including productivity gains, resource conservation or national security. It is also a subject of controversy between engineers and economists, who have divergent conceptions of the notion of optimality that delineates energy efficiency potentials. Modern surveys hardly go back beyond the 1970s and do not fully explore the reasons and conditions for the persistent differences between economists' and engineers' views. This paper provides such a historical account, investigating the positioning of economic analysis in contrast to the technical expertise on key energy efficiency topics – the rebound effect, the energy efficiency gap, and green nudges, from the 19th century to the present day. It highlights the permanence and evolution in the relationship that economists have had with technical expertise. An extension of the current conceptual framework is finally provided to connect our historical findings with avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | engineering,nudge,history of economic thought,energy efficiency,market barriers and failures |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02301636&r=all |
| By: | Abel Gwaindepi; Johan Fourie |
| Abstract: | The majority of African states continue to be regarded as extractive states. We use the Cape Colony's public expenditure to account for the emergence of extractive states in Africa. With a sub-imperial role for Southern African colonial expansion, the Cape Colony became a template for extractive practices that continue to characterize the region. Using public expenditure data, budget debates and existing historiography, we trace the elite competition for limited public resources that associated the Cape's transition from an agrarian society to a mining-led economy. |
| Keywords: | Extractive states, public expenditure, elite competition, natural resources, Cape Colony, South Africa |
| JEL: | H40 H50 H54 N57 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:783&r=all |
| By: | Chambers, David |
| Abstract: | It is often thought that the arrival of the Black Scholes Merton (BSM) model of option pricing in the early 1970s allowed traders to understand how to price and value options with greater precision. Yet, our study suggests that interwar commodity option traders may have been able to intuit 'fair' value and to adjust their prices to changes in the market environment well before the advent of this innovative model. A scarcity of historical price data has limited empirical tests of option price efficiency well before BSM to prior studies of stock options in the 1870s and the early twentieth century which reach contrasting findings. This study deals with option pricing in a different market â?? commodities â?? during the interwar period. We conclude that option prices were closer to their BSM theoretical values than suggested by prior studies. Institutional differences between interwar commodity options market and stock option markets in the 1870s and the early twentieth century may partly account for this result. Furthermore, we find that interwar option prices were no more mispriced and were as sensitive to changes in volatility â?? the key valuation parameter in the BSM model â?? as in modern times. |
| Keywords: | Black-Scholes; commodities; London Metals Exchange; Market Efficiency; Options; Performativity; Warrants |
| JEL: | G1 G2 N2 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13975&r=all |
| By: | Velásquez Torres, Juan Carlos |
| Abstract: | Resumen: Este artículo hace una revisión del planteamiento de la cuestión agraria en la historiografía agraria colombiana durante el periodo 1936-2016. Para efectuar dicha revisión, el periodo objeto de análisis fue segmentado en cinco etapas así: 1936-1959, 1960-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-2011 y 2012-2016. La revisión permite corroborar la hipótesis según la cual la cuestión agraria cambia en el tiempo y, por tanto, la forma de plantearla varía según el contexto histórico en el que se la mire; cabe aclarar que al afirmar que la cuestión agraria cambia, lo que se quiere decir es que ella incorpora nuevos elementos, elementos que no tenía antes, dependiendo del contexto histórico en el cual se la enmarque. Concretamente, en el periodo 1936-1959, los ejes de la cuestión agraria fueron los derechos de propiedad, la concentración de la tierra y/o el mal uso de ésta. Para el periodo 1960-1979 la cuestión agraria adquirió un cariz político, al incorporarse al análisis la concentración del poder político; también tomó un cariz social, al ser resaltados fenómenos que afectan a las clases subalternas como la explotación y la pauperización. Para el periodo 1980-1989 el concepto de cuestión agraria comenzó a incorporar fenómenos como la violencia y la inseguridad en el campo. Por último, en las fases 1990-2011 y 2012-2016 se sumaron en la definición de la cuestión agraria elementos como la competitividad, la sostenibilidad ambiental y las políticas públicas. / Abstract : This article makes a review of the approaches to the agrarian question in the Colombian agrarian historiography during the period 1936-2016. To carry out this review, the period was segmented in five stages: 1936-1959, 1960-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-2011 and 2012- 2016. The review allows it to corroborate the hypothesis that the agrarian question changes over time, and therefore the way to tackle it varies according to the historical context in which it is studied; It should be clarified that by stating that the agrarian question changes, what is meant is that it incorporates new elements, elements that it did not have before, according to the historical context in which it is framed. Specifically, in the period 1936-1959, the main points of the agrarian question were property rights, land concentration and/or land misuse. For the period of 1960-1979 the agrarian question obtained a political tenor once the concentration of political power was taken into the analysis; It also took a social turn by highlighting phenomena that affected the subordinate classes such as exploitation and impoverishment. For the period of 1980-1989 the concept of the agrarian question began to incorporate phenomena such as violence and rural insecurity. Finally, in phases 1990-2011 and 2012-2016, elements such as competitiveness, environmental sustainability and public policies were added to the definition of the agrarian question. |
| Keywords: | cuestión agraria, derechos de propiedad, distribución de la tierra, uso de la tierra, poder político, explotación del trabajador rural, pauperización del campesino, violencia, competitividad, sostenibilidad ambiental, institucionalidad y políticas públicas |
| JEL: | N01 Q15 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:017518&r=all |
| By: | André Lapidus (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper continues an ongoing reflection on the ways we do the history of economic thought, marked some decades ago by Blaug (1990)'s canonical typology of the four "genres" in the historiography of economics. Drawing the consequences of a seminal paper by Rorty (1984) on the methodology of the history of philosophy, it offers a non-canonical typology comprising three alternative approaches, distinguished on the basis of the way they conceive of the link between statements, old and contemporary: the extensive, the retrospective, and the intensive approaches. A particularity of the intensive approach is its potential challenge to contemporary knowledge through the possible introduction of statements which do not belong to it. Yet, unlike the extensive and retrospective approaches, the very possibility of an intensive approach seems at odds with its relatively thin academic outcomes. Taking the works of Sraffa (1951; 1960) and Sen (2002) as examples, it is argued that this is a consequence of the intensive approach being heuristic which is destined to remain poised between the extensive and retrospective approaches. But, as a result, among the three available approaches, it is the intensive approach which appears as a privileged route by which the history of economic thought can begin to engage with economic theory. |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02294934&r=all |
| By: | Mahfuzur Rahman (BRAC University) |
| Abstract: | In the late eighteenth century, in 1798, England's renowned economist Thomas Malthus, in his book 'Essay on the Principal of Population' 1 , propounded a stirring theory about population, according to his name, it is called the Malthusian Population Theory. [1] Malthus discussed the problem of population increase in the food supply and the scarcity of production rule. According to Malthus, population increases in geometric rates and food production increases at arithmetical rate. In the twentieth century, we will see how logical the population theory of Malthus is in today's world and how unreasonable. Although the population theory of Malthus is somewhat true for the underdeveloped countries. Due to the development and use of science and technology in the present world, the population theory of Malthas has been criticized by various modern economists. |
| Keywords: | Developed Countries,Malthus,Theory of Population,Growth of Population,Food Production,Developing Countries |
| Date: | 2018–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02298401&r=all |
| By: | Marlyse Pouchol (URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | interwar period,clearing agreements,John Maynard Keynes,Clearing Union,foreign exchange controls,compensation bancaire,période de l’entre-deux-guerres,contrôle des changes,accords de clearing |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02304876&r=all |
| By: | Vallecilla Gordillo, Jaime |
| Abstract: | Resumen: El artículo contiene una revisión de las principales mediciones del PIB y otras mediciones macroeconómicas en el nivel departamental y municipal en el periodo 1950-2017. Se espera que esta revisión pueda ser de utilidad para las investigaciones sobre la economía regional y urbana de Colombia al señalar sus limitaciones metodológicas y temporales. El común denominador de las diversas mediciones, básicamente PIB departamental y de Bogotá, es su discontinuidad y el reducido número de años de estas estimaciones, exceptuando aquellas realizadas por el DANE, Planeación Departamental de Antioquia y Valle, CEGA y el autor (hasta 2011). Con la serie del PIB del DANE, y la que fue iniciada en CEGA y continuada por el autor, es posible ampliar el horizonte temporal al periodo 1975-2017 e incluso extenderlo hasta mediados del siglo XX. / Abstract : This article contains a review of the main measurements of GDP and other macroeconomic measures at the departmental and municipal level in the period 1950-2017. It aims at being useful for research on the regional and urban economics of Colombia by pointing out methodological and temporary limitations. The common denominator of the several measurements, basically of departmental and Bogota’s GDP, is the discontinuity and the reduced number of years of these estimates, except those calculated by DANE, departmental planning of Antioquia and Valle, CEGA and the author (until 2011). GDP series calculated by DANE, and those initiated by CEGA and continued by the author, can be extended to the period 1975-2017 and back further into the mid-twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | cuentas macroeconómicas regionales, medición del PIB departamental, agregación económica, datos macroeconómicos. |
| JEL: | C82 E01 R11 R15 |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:017517&r=all |
| By: | Cummins, Neil |
| Abstract: | Sharp declines in wealth-concentration occurred across Europe and the US during the 20th century. But this stylized fact is based on declared wealth. It is possible that today the richest are not less rich but rather that they are hiding much of their wealth. This paper proposes a method to measure this hidden wealth, in any form. In England, 1920-1992, elites are concealing 20-32% of their wealth. Among dynasties, hidden wealth, independent of declared wealth, predicts appearance in the Offshore Leaks Database of 2013-6, house values in 1999, and Oxbridge attendance, 1990-2016. Accounting for hidden wealth eliminates one-third of the observed decline of top 10% wealth-share over the past century. |
| Keywords: | Big Data; economic history; hidden wealth; inequality; tax evasion |
| JEL: | D31 H26 N00 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14020&r=all |
| By: | Masami Imai (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Michiru Sawada (College of Economics, Nihon University) |
| Abstract: | The interwar Japanese economy was unsettled by chronic banking instability, and yet the Bank of Japan (BOJ) restricted access to its liquidity provision to a select group of banks, i.e. BOJ correspondent banks, rather than making its loans widely available "to merchants, to minor bankers, to this man and to that man" as prescribed by Bagehot (1873). This historical episode provides us with a quasi-experimental setting to study the impact of Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) policies on financial intermediation. We find that the growth rate of deposits and loans was notably faster for BOJ correspondent banks than the other banks during the bank panic phase of the Great Depression from 1931-1932, whereas it was not faster before the bank panic phase. Furthermore, BOJ correspondent banks were less likely to be closed during the bank panics. To address possible selection bias, we also instrument a bank' s corresponding relationship with the BOJ with its geographical proximity to the nearest branch or the headquarters of the BOJ, which was a major determinant of a bank's transaction relationship with the BOJ at the time. This instrumental variable specification yields qualitatively same results. Taken together, Japan's historical experience suggests that central banks' liquidity provisions play an important backstop role in supporting the essential financial intermediation services in time of financial stringency. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2019cf1111&r=all |
| By: | Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research illuminates the historical development of creative activity in the United States. Census data is used to identify creative occupations (i.e., artists, musicians, authors, actors) and data on prominent creatives, as listed in a comprehensive biographical compendium. The analysis first sheds light on the socio-economic background of creative people and how it has changed since 1850. The results indicate that the proportion of female creatives is relatively high, time constraints can be a hindrance for taking up a creative occupation, racial inequality is present and tends to change only slowly, and access to financial resources within a family facilitates the uptake of an artistic occupation. Second, the study systematically documents and quantifies the geography of creative clusters in the United States and explains how these have evolved over time and across creative domains. Third, it investigates the importance of outstanding talent in a discipline for the local growth of an artistic cluster. |
| Keywords: | Creativity; artists; geographic clustering; agglomeration economies; urban history |
| JEL: | N33 R10 Z11 |
| Date: | 2019–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2019_011&r=all |
| By: | Enflo, Kerstin; Karlsson, Tobias; Molinder, Jakob |
| Abstract: | There is a wide-spread concern that technical change may spur social conflicts, especially if workers are replaced with machines. To empirically analyze whether job destruction drives protests, we study a historical example of a revolutionary new technology: the adoption of electricity. Focusing on the gradual roll-out of the Swedish electricity grid between 1900 and 1920 enables us to analyze 2,487 Swedish parishes in a difference-in-differences framework. Proximity to large-scale water-powered electricity plants is used to instrument for electricity adoption. Our results confirm that the labor saving nature of electricity was followed by an increase of local conflicts in the form of strikes. But displaced workers were not likely to initiate conflicts. Instead, strikes were most common in sectors with employment growth. Similarly, we find that the strikes were of an offensive rather than a defensive nature. Thus, electrification did not result in rebellions driven by technological anxiety. It rather provided workers with a stronger bargaining position from which they could voice their claims through strikes. |
| Keywords: | electrification; infrastructure investments; Labor conflicts; labor demand; strikes; Technological change |
| JEL: | N14 N34 N74 O14 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13986&r=all |
| By: | Albers, Thilo |
| Abstract: | The currency devaluations of the 1930s facilitated a faster recovery from the Great Depression in the countries depreciating, but their unilateral manner provoked retaliatory and discriminatory commercial policies abroad. This article explores the importance of the retaliatory motive in the imposition of trade barriers by gold bloc countries during the 1930s and its effects on trade. Relying on new and existing datasets on the introduction of quotas, tariffs, and bilateral trade costs, the quantification of the discriminatory response suggests that these countries imposed significant beggar‐my‐neighbour penalties. The penalties reduced trade to a similar degree that modern regional trade agreements foster trade. Furthermore, the analysis of contemporary newspapers reveals that the devaluations of the early 1930s triggered an Anglo‐French trade conflict marked by tit‐for‐tat protectionist policies. With regards to global trade, the unilateral currency depreciations came at a high price in political and economic terms. These costs must have necessarily reduced their benefit to the world as a whole. |
| Keywords: | 1350161 |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2019–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100269&r=all |
| By: | González Lopera, Tatiana |
| Abstract: | Resumen: En este documento de trabajo se realiza una revisión bibliográfica general en el área de Historia Empresarial de Colombia desde 1984. El objetivo es identificar las regiones geográficas, los periodos históricos y los sectores económicos investigados, y de esta manera establecer una imagen general del desarrollo de la historia empresarial del país y señalar los vacíos que aún persisten en este panorama. Se identificaron y revisaron 75 artículos propios de la historia empresarial, publicados en revistas institucionales (Banco de la República) y académicas (vinculadas con universidades del país). La revisión se hace clasificando los artículos a partir de criterios de contenido como temática, región y sector, además de criterios de publicación como autor, revista y año de publicación, entre otros. Al cruzar estos criterios se encontró que el 60% de los artículos tratan temas típicos de historia empresarial como biografías e historias de empresas, que las regiones más estudiadas son el Caribe y Antioquia, y los sectores más atendidos son el industrial y el comercial. También se identifican dos momentos de producción académica: antes y después del 2003, donde se destaca el papel del Banco de la República (banco central) como divulgador de estas investigaciones. Se concluye enfatizando la necesidad de continuar con esta revisión a través de la inclusión de otras revistas, libros y trabajos de grado para construir un panorama más completo de la producción disponible que permita señalar los temas y regiones sobre los cuales aún se desconocen sus procesos económicos y empresariales. / Abstract : This working paper is a general literature review in the area of business history of Colombia since 1984. The aim is to identify the geographical regions, historical periods and the sectors that have been researched in order to establish a general image of the development of Colombian business history, and point out the gaps that still persist in this scenario. 75 articles of business history published in institutional journals (Banco de la República) and academic journal (associated with national universities) were identified and reviewed. This review is made by classifying articles based on content criteria such as subject, region and sector, as well as publication criteria such as author, journal and year of publication, among others. Through these criteria it was found that 60% of the articles deal with typical subjects of business history such as biographies and histories of companies, that the most studied regions are the Caribbean and Antioquia, and that the most attended sectors are the industrial and commercial. Also two moments of academic production were recognized: before and after 2003, which highlights the role of the Banco de la República (central bank) in divulging these investigations. The paper concludes stressing the need to continue this review by including other journals, books, monographs and thesis to build a more complete picture of the available production thereby pointing out topics and regions whose economic and business processes are still unknown. |
| Keywords: | historia empresarial de Colombia, historia regional, historia económica de Colombia, biografías de empresarios, desarrollo empresarial, administración de empresas |
| JEL: | N96 M1 N01 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:017513&r=all |
| By: | Edo, Anthony; Melitz, Jacques |
| Abstract: | We perform the first econometric test to date of the influences of inflows of precious metals and population growth on the "Great Inflation" in Europe following the discov-ery of the New World. The English evidence strongly supports the near-equivalent im-portance of both influences. For 1500-1700, silver is the only relevant precious metal in the estimates. The study controls for urbanization, government spending, mortality crises and climatic changes. The series for inflows of the precious metals into Europe from America and European mining are newly constructed based on the secondary sources. |
| Keywords: | " Demography; European economic history 1500-1700; Precious metals; The "Great Inflation |
| JEL: | E31 F00 J10 N13 N33 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14023&r=all |
| By: | Coyle, Christopher; Musacchio, Aldo; Turner, John D. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, using new estimates of the size of the UK's capital market, we examine financial development and investor protection laws in Britain c.1900 to test the influential law and finance hypothesis. Our evidence suggests that there was not a close correlation between financial development and investor protection laws c.1900 and that the size of the UK's share market is a puzzle given the paucity of statutory investor protection. To illustrate that Britain was not unique in its approach to investor protection in this era, we examine investor protection laws across legal families c.1900. |
| Keywords: | Common Law,Finance,Investor Protection,Law,UK |
| JEL: | G3 G33 K22 N20 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201905&r=all |
| By: | Carsten Hefeker (University of Siegen) |
| Abstract: | Germany prides itself in having one of the most successful central banks and currencies with respect to independence and stability. I show that not only were both imposed on the country after 1945 but that there was also initial resistance to both among German experts and officials. This was then a rare case of successful imposition of institutions from abroad. Events are discussed in light of Peter Bernholz’s requirements for stable money and a successful central bank. |
| Keywords: | Currency reform, Bundesbank, central bank independence, institutional reform |
| JEL: | E42 E58 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201924&r=all |
| By: | Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | After a long debate on wine import tariffs, the Italian Parliament failed to ratify the Spanish-Italian trade agreement on December 17th, 1905. This decision – an unusual episode for a country with relatively low level of protection – left Spain and Italy without a bilateral trade treaty for an entire decade. In the literature, broader political issues and local interests are alternatively indicated as the main drivers of the rejection. Based on a manually assembled database which collects economic and political variables, including MPs personal features, and using a probit model, this paper provides a quantitative analysis of the vote. Results show that constituency interests had a role in determining the result of the vote on the trade treaty. Moreover, constituency interests were also important for the “vote switchers”, i.e. those MPs that supported the overall government policy stance in the first round, but opposed the Spanish-Italian trade agreement in the second. |
| Keywords: | trade agreement, tariffs, wine, vote |
| JEL: | D72 F13 N43 N73 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1932&r=all |
| By: | Decker, Frank; Goodhart, C. A. E. |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the theory of credit mechanics within the context of the current money supply debate. Credit mechanics and related approaches were developed by a group of German monetary economists during the 1920s-1960s. Credit mechanics overcomes a one-sided, bank-centric view of money creation, which is often encountered in monetary theory. We show that the money supply is influenced by the interplay of loan creation and repayment rates; the relative share of credit volume neutral debtor-to-debtor and creditor-to-creditor payments; the availability of loan security; and the behavior of non-banks and non-borrowing bank creditors . With the standard textbook models of money creation now discredited, we argue that a more general approach to money supply theory involving credit mechanics needs to be established. |
| Keywords: | balances mechanics; bank credit; money creation; credit creation; credit mechanics; money supply theory |
| JEL: | E40 E41 E50 E51 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100017&r=all |
| By: | Wang-Sheng Lee; Ben G. Li |
| Abstract: | Modern technology empowers human beings to cope with various extreme weather events. Using Chinese historical data, we examine the impact of extreme weather on long-term human health in an environment where individuals have no access to modern technology. By combining life course data on 5,000 Chinese elites with historical weather data over the period 1-1840 AD, we find a significant and robust negative impact of droughts in childhood on the longevity of elites. Quantitatively, encountering three years of droughts in childhood reduces an elite's life span by about two years. A remarkably important channel of the childhood drought effect is the deterioration of economic conditions caused by droughts. |
| Keywords: | Longevity, Weather, Early-life conditions, Elites, History of China |
| JEL: | I15 N35 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:081&r=all |
| By: | Funjika Patricia; Getachew Yoseph |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the relationship between differences in skills measured among‚ within-country ethnic groups and individual human capital accumulation in eight African‚ countries.Our results show that the skills of an individual in these countries depends more on the‚ human capital levels of their parents¢â‚¬â„¢ ethnic group (ethnic capital) than on parental investment.‚ Therefore, differences in initial levels of ethnic capital may explain the persistence of ethnicitybased‚ differences in educational attainment over time. Birth cohort analysis and the results from‚ an interaction effects model show that ethnic capital has a persistent effect, and that this effect is‚ higher in former British colonies than former French colonies.Using historical religion-based data‚ from the colonial and independence periods as instruments for ethnic capital, we demonstrate‚ large effects of parental ethnicity on an individual¢â‚¬â„¢s human capital skill level and show that colonial‚ origin may be important in understanding intergenerational mobility in African countries. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility,Human capital,Education,Colonialism,Ethnicity |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-64&r=all |
| By: | Carolyn Sloane; Erik Hurst; Dan Black |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the importance of pre-market human capital specialization in explaining gender differences in labor market outcomes among the highly skilled. Using new data with detailed undergraduate major information for several cohorts of American college graduates, we establish many novel facts. First, we show evidence of a gender convergence in college major choice over the last 40 years. Second, we highlight that women today still choose college majors associated with lower potential wages than men. Third, we report gender differences in the mapping from major to occupation. Even conditional on major, women systematically choose lower potential wage and lower potential hours-worked occupations than men. Fourth, we document a modest gender convergence between the 1950 and 1990 birth cohorts in the mapping of major to occupation. Finally, we show that college major choice has strong predictive power in explaining gender wage gaps independent of occupation choice. Collectively, our results suggest the importance of further understanding gender differences in pre-labor market specialization including college major choice. |
| JEL: | J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26348&r=all |
| By: | Carillo, Mario Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the link between local public spending and popular support and investigates its persistence across institutional transitions and over the long term. I explore the foundation of Mussolini's New Towns (Città di Fondazione) in Fascist Italy, a major infrastructure investment which played a central role in the fascist propaganda. Employing municipality-level data before and after the intervention, together with information on the timing of each New Town construction, I find that the intervention enhanced the electoral support for the Fascist Party, favoring the emergence of the Regime. Furthermore, I document a positive link between the New Towns and the electoral support for the Neo-Fascist Party, which persisted until the present day. Using individual survey data, I document that respondents near the Fascist New Towns built 70 years ago currently display political attitudes in line with the fascist ideology. Results are not driven by the geographic conditions that induced the location of the New Towns, socioeconomic differences, and migration patterns. Furthermore, I find no spurious effect of the New Towns that were planned but not built. The findings suggest that public spending may have long-lasting effects on political and cultural attitudes, which persist across major institutional changes. |
| Keywords: | Political attitudes, infrastructures, democratic transitions |
| JEL: | N0 P0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2018–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96236&r=all |
| By: | António Afonso; Frederico Silva Leal |
| Abstract: | We estimate short-and long-run elasticities of private consumption forfiscal instruments,using a Fixed Effects model for the19-euroarea countries duringthe period of 1960-2017, to asses show fiscal elasticities vary during fiscal episodes.According to the results, positive “tax revenue”elasticities indicate that consumers have aRicardian behaviour, whereby they perceive an increase in taxation to bea sign of future government spending. “Social benefits”appear to have a non-keynesian effecton private consumption. In addition, using a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, it is seen that private consumption continues to exhibit a non-keynesian response to tax increases, both in the short and long-run, and “other expenditures” have a recessive impact during “normal times”. Furthermore, “social benefits”are more contractionary in consolidations than in both expansions and “normal times”. Additionally, after the launch of the EMU, expansionary fiscal consolidations became harder to observe, and “other expenditure”and “investment”lost their non-keynesian role. |
| Keywords: | Non-Keynesian Effects, Fiscal Episodes, Fiscal policy, Fiscal Elasticities, EMU |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E62 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0972019&r=all |
| By: | Jilmar Robledo-Caicedo |
| Abstract: | El Chocó es uno de los departamentos con los indicadores socioeconómicos más bajos del país. Este documento describe la historia económica y social de sus habitantes a partir de la época colonial y el contexto institucional que afectó el progreso territorial en los períodos posteriores. Además, evidencia las consecuencias históricas de su modelo económico en el bienestar. De igual manera, describe el avance reciente en indicadores del nivel de vida. Finalmente, plantea una relación entre la pobreza y la maldición de los recursos naturales y explora los mecanismos por los cuales se ejerce una presión contraria al desarrollo. Estos están asociados a la dependencia histórica de la dotación del territorio, la poca diversificación y la falta de competitividad en la economía moderna. **** ABSTRACT: Chocó is among the states with the lowest economic and social indicators in Colombia. This paper describes the economic and social history of its inhabitants. Starting at the colonial period, the analysis allows the comprehension of the productive stages and the institutional scheme that affected the local development trend afterwards. Also, it emphasizes on the historic consequences of its economic model on the individuals’ wellbeing. Likewise, it exposes the recent progress in the standard of living. Last but not least, the study posits a relationship between poverty and the idea of natural resource curse. This is explored through various mechanisms of failure in development. The curse is linked to dependence on natural endowments, little economic diversification and competitiveness in the modern economy. |
| Keywords: | Historia del Chocó, crecimiento económico, maldición de los recursos naturales, bienestar, History of Chocó, economic growth, natural resource curse, wellbeing |
| JEL: | I0 N56 Q00 C10 |
| Date: | 2019–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000101:017534&r=all |
| By: | Jilmar Robledo-Caicedo (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | El Chocó es uno de los departamentos con los indicadores socioeconómicos más bajos del país. Este documento describe la historia económica y social de sus habitantes a partir de la época colonial y el contexto institucional que afectó el progreso territorial en los períodos posteriores. Además, evidencia las consecuencias históricas de su modelo económico en el bienestar. De igual manera, describe el avance reciente en indicadores del nivel de vida. Finalmente, plantea una relación entre la pobreza y la maldición de los recursos naturales y explora los mecanismos por los cuales se ejerce una presión contraria al desarrollo. Estos están asociados a la dependencia histórica de la dotación del territorio, la poca diversificación y la falta de competitividad en la economía moderna. **** ABSTRACT: Chocó is among the states with the lowest economic and social indicators in Colombia. This paper describes the economic and social history of its inhabitants. Starting at the colonial period, the analysis allows the comprehension of the productive stages and the institutional scheme that affected the local development trend afterwards. Also, it emphasizes on the historic consequences of its economic model on the individuals’ wellbeing. Likewise, it exposes the recent progress in the standard of living. Last but not least, the study posits a relationship between poverty and the idea of natural resource curse. This is explored through various mechanisms of failure in development. The curse is linked to dependence on natural endowments, little economic diversification and competitiveness in the modern economy. |
| Keywords: | Historia del Chocó, crecimiento económico, maldición de los recursos naturales, bienestar, History of Chocó, economic growth, natural resource curse, wellbeing |
| JEL: | I0 N56 Q00 C10 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:cheedt:52&r=all |
| By: | Mathias Hoffmann (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | The banking sector in Japan experienced a substantial organizational change in the early twentieth century, including an expansion of branch networks. In this paper, we explore the implications of branch banking in regional economies, using unique bank branch office-level data for four rural regions: Fukushima, Tottori, Kumamoto, and Miyazaki Prefectures. We find that branch banking had a positive scale effect on lending. However, compared with branch offices of banks headquartered in the same municipality, branch offices of banks headquartered in other municipalities, especially in other prefectures, tended to have a lower propensity to issue loans. In particular, branch offices of banks headquartered in urban areas, such as Osaka and Tokyo, tended to collect deposits rather than to lend money through their branch networks, which restricted regional finance. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2019cf1109&r=all |
| By: | Richard Hornbeck (University of Chicago and NBER); Martin Rotemberg (New York University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impacts of market integration on the development of American manufacturing, as railroads expanded through the latter half of the 19th century. Using county-by-industry data from the Census of Manufacturers, we estimate substantial impacts on manufacturing productivity growth from increases in county market access due to expansion of the railroad network. These productivity impacts are driven by increases in "reallocative efficiency," as input usage increased in areas where value marginal product exceeded marginal cost. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:396&r=all |
| By: | Kennedy, Liam; Solar, Peter M. |
| Abstract: | Strange Times. There were back-to-back harvest failures in 1799-1800, coming fast on the heels of the insurrections of 1798. The result was massive and sustained inflation in food prices. The conundrum is why there was so little excess mortality. Our approach is to begin by discussing the harvest failures of 1799 and 1800, drawing some implications from the price movements of foodstuffs in Ireland and Britain. We then present evidence from our limited sample of parish registers that suggests that excess mortality was probably quite limited, as was the check to births. A further striking feature of the period, and hardly unrelated, was the role of the state. Though heavily absorbed with the "high politics" of the Union, politicians and policy makers took swift and determined action to stave off distress and public disorder. The range and effectiveness of these measures are assessed. We draw attention to a variety of local initiatives to grapple with problems of food scarcity and lack of purchasing power and offer an analytical sketch as to how the relationship between farmers and labourers might have shaped the outcome of the crisis in the countryside. The concluding section reflects on methods of calculating the impact of state-sponsored famine relief - the lives saved in a sense - and argues that a dynamic rather than a static approach is what is required. And second, the limitations of inflated food prices as indicators of famine conditions, at least under certain forms of peasant agriculture, are laid bare. These two sets of argument help unlock the conundrum as to why excess mortality did not give rise to mass mortality under environmental conditions as unpropitious as those of 1800- 01. There may be implications here for the understanding of food crises in rural societies with large subsistence sectors elsewhere in the pre-industrial world. |
| JEL: | N33 N54 N94 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201906&r=all |
| By: | Goodhart, Charles |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2018–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:87507&r=all |
| By: | Bach, Maria; Morgan, Mary S. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) redefined their idea of development over the two decades from 1990, no longer presenting it as only a matter of economic progress but instead focusing more on the problem of poverty and its reduction. This change of definition was closely associated with changes in the preferred measurement of development, from average income (based on national income accounting) to the proportion of the population holding certain characteristics of what it meant to live in poverty (instantiated in various index number formulations). Measurements of development thus became direct measures of socio-economic difference, not just between nations, but also within nations. This change was designed to create numbers that would be effective in capturing and communicating those differences in ways usable for both policy and public purposes. Those numbers thus provided a resource for fighting for poverty reduction – though the UNDP had few powers to hold governments to account. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2019–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101769&r=all |
| By: | Julio Elías; Gustavo Ferro; Álvaro García |
| Abstract: | How did the wine world market perform in the last decades in terms of production, international trade, prices and consumption? What happened with Argentina’s wine industry in the same period? To answer these questions, we categorize countries and analyze FAO statistics from 1961 on. We verify that production, exports and consumption had displaced from traditional Old World traditional producers to New World. Production has decreased in volume, consumption has tended to reduce its dispersion regionally, the internationalization of the market had tripled in a little more than half a century and quality –proxy by export relative prices- has increased on average and has reduced its dispersion with respect to world average and to the prices of the more reputed producer and exporter. Resumen: ¿Cuál ha sido la evolución del mercado mundial de vinos en las últimas décadas en materia de producción, comercio internacional, precios y consumo? ¿Qué ha ocurrido con Argentina en ese período? Se responden estas preguntas categorizando los países y analizando estadísticas compiladas por FAO desde 1961. Se verifica que producción, exportaciones y consumo se ha desplazado desde productores tradicionales del Viejo Mundo al Nuevo Mundo, que la producción ha bajado en cantidad, el consumo ha tendido a reducir su dispersión regional, que se ha triplicado el nivel de internacionalización del mercado en algo más de cinco décadas y que la calidad –aproximada por precios relativos de exportación- parece haber aumentado en promedio y reducido su dispersión respecto del promedio mundial y de los precios del productor de máxima reputación. |
| JEL: | Q11 Q17 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:701&r=all |
| By: | Lucas Herrenbrueck (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | The Euler equation of a representative consumer is at the heart of modern macroeconomics. But in empirical applications, it is badly misapplied: it prices a bond that is short-term, perfectly safe, yet perfectly illiquid. Such a bond does not exist. Real-world safe assets are highly tradable or pledgeable as collateral, hence their prices reflect their moneyness as much as their dividends. Indeed, I estimate the return on a hypothetical illiquid bond, for the postwar United States, via inflation and consumption growth, and show that it behaves very differently from the return on safe and liquid assets. I also argue that this distinction helps resolve every puzzle ever associated with the Euler equation (or its long-run counterpart, the Fisher equation), and points to a better way of understanding how monetary policy affects the economy. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1409&r=all |