nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒09‒09
27 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Polish tourist guidebooks of the 19th century in the European context By Dominik Ziarkowski
  2. How did Christianity expand in sub-Saharan Africa to become the continent’s dominant religion? Using annual panel data on all Christian missions from 1751 to 1932 in Ghana, as well as cross-sectional data on missions for 43 sub-Saharan African countries in 1900 and 1924, we shed light on the spatial dynamics and determinants of this religious diffusion process. Missions expanded into healthier, safer, more accessible, and more developed areas, privileging these locations first. Results are confirmed for selected factors using various identification strategies. This pattern has implications for extensive literature using missions established during colonial times as a source of variation to study the longterm economic effects of religion, human capital and culture. Our results provide a less favourable account of the impact of Christian missions on modern African economic development. We also highlight the risks of omission and endogenous measurement error biases when using historical data and events for identification. By Remi Jedwab; Felix Meier zu Selhausen; Alexander Moradi
  3. Pirate Attacks and the Shape of the Italian Urban System By Antonio Accetturo; Michele Cascarano; Guido de Blasio
  4. Displacement, Diversity, and Mobility: Career Impacts of Japanese American Internment By Arellano-Bover, Jaime
  5. ?We Want the World and We Want It Now?: Jim Morrison as ?Guiding Spirit? of the Youth Counterculture By Kylo-Patrick Hart
  6. Days Worked and Seasonality Patterns of Work in Eighteenth Century Denmark By Jensen, Peter Sandholt; Radu, Cristina Victoria; Sharp, Paul Richard
  7. Exploiting the ?Communist Threat?, for the Privatized Internet By Noel Packard
  8. Reading Emily Brontë?s Wuthering Heights and George Sand?s Mauprat as musical novels By Tatjana ?epi?
  9. Evolutionism in Music History: toward Reconciliation By Francisco Castillo
  10. The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry By Belke, Ansgar H.; Volz, Ulrich
  11. Bank Executive Experience with Clearinghouse Loan Certificates By Christopher Hoag
  12. The American Dream Lives in Sweden: Trends in intergenerational absolute income mobility By Liss, Erik; Korpi, Martin; Wennberg , Karl
  13. Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century By Sangyup Choi; Chansik Yoon
  14. Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death By Remi Jedwab; Noel D. Johnson; Mark Koyama
  15. Unsustainable Mining Development and the Collapse of Some Ancient Societies: Economic Reasons By Clement Tisdell; Serge Svizzero
  16. The Weight of History: A Natural Experiment in Higher Education By Mahdi Majbouri
  17. Golden Age of Capitalism: The effect of education on growth and inequality By Pier Paolo Saviotti; Andreas Pyka; Bogang Jun
  18. Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks By Tölö, Eero
  19. Annual Trend of Physical Growth in Infant and Japanese High Economic Growth By Yuki Kani; Katsunori Fujii; Toshiro Sakai; Nozomi Tanaka; Yuzuru Naito; Yusaku Ogura
  20. Old Sins Cast Long Shadows: The Long-Term Impact of the Resettlement of the Sudetenland on Residential Migration By Guzi, Martin; Huber, Peter; Mikula, Stepan
  21. The Early Life Influences of Teachers' Genders on Later Life Charitable Giving: Evidence from the Natural Disasters in Japan By Yamamura, Eiji; Powdthavee, Nattavudh
  22. Economic Theory, Phoenician Pre-coinage External Trade, Changes in the Economic Surplus and its Appropriation - An initial Perspective By Clement Tisdell; Serge Svizzero
  23. Space economy By Bardt, Hubertus
  24. Barter and the Origin of Money and Some Insights from the Ancient Palatial Economies of Mesopotamia and Egypt By Serge Svizzero; Clement Tisdell
  25. Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies Regional File (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2017 By Antoni, Manfred; Ganzer, Andreas; Vom Berge; Philipp
  26. Creative Destruction, Social Security Uptake and Union Networks By Dale-Olsen, Harald
  27. Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien Regionalfile (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2017 By Antoni, Manfred; Ganzer, Andreas; Vom Berge; Philipp

  1. By: Dominik Ziarkowski (Cracow University of Economics)
    Abstract: In the 19th century there was an unprecedented development of tourism and guidebooks useful for tourists. A modern type of guidebook with sightseeing route suggestions and numerous practical information has been developed. Publishing houses that specialized in creating this type of travel books, such as Karl Baedeker's in Germany and John Murray in England appeared. The guidebooks issued by them served for templates adapted by other authors and publishers.In the analyzed period more than 150 Polish guidebooks were written, mostly connected with big cities, but also i.al. spa resorts and mountain areas. Difficult political situation consisting in breaking the country into three partitions, made it hard to create guidebooks about the entirety of Polish lands. The aim of the article is to characterize Polish nineteenth-century guidebooks compared to similar European publications. On the one hand, it should demonstrate the impact of European solutions on the form and content of Polish guidebooks, and on the other ? the specificity of Polish guidebooks, determined by particular historical factors.
    Keywords: tourist guidebooks, history of tourism, cultural studies, tourism literature, 19th century
    Date: 2019–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iahpro:9311606&r=all
  2. By: Remi Jedwab (Department of Economics, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA); Felix Meier zu Selhausen (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Jubilee Building, Falmer, East Sussex, UK); Alexander Moradi (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy)
    Keywords: Economics of Religion; Religious Diffusion; Path Dependence; Economic Development; Compression of History; Measurement; Christianity; Africa
    JEL: N3 N37 N95 Z12 O12 O15
    Date: 2019–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:1019&r=all
  3. By: Antonio Accetturo; Michele Cascarano; Guido de Blasio
    Abstract: rom the sixteenth to the early nineteenth century, coastal areas of Italy (especially, in the south-west) were subject to attacks by pirates launched from the shores of Northern Africa. This paper documents that, in order to protect themselves, residents of coastal locations moved inland to mountainous and rugged areas. It also shows that such relocation constrained local economic development for a long period after the piracy threat had subsided. By hampering the growth of major urban centers, the attacks may have also had aggregate consequences on Italy’s post-WWII development.
    Keywords: City size distribution, Historical shocks, Local development, Aggregate effects
    JEL: R1 N9 O1
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwprg:2019/15&r=all
  4. By: Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University)
    Abstract: One of the largest population displacement episodes in the U.S. took place in 1942, when over 110,000 persons of Japanese origin living on the West Coast were forcibly sent away to ten internment camps for one to three years. Having lost jobs and assets, after internment they had to reassess labor market and location choices. This paper studies how internees' careers were affected in the long run. Combining Census data, camp records, and survey data I develop a predictor of a person's internment status based on Census observables. Using a difference-in-differences framework I find that internment had a positive average effect on earnings in the long run. Chiefly due to strong pre- WWII anti-Asian discrimination, the comparison group is composed of non-interned Japanese and Chinese Americans. The evidence is consistent with mechanisms related to increased occupational and geographic mobility, possibly facilitated by the camps' high economic diversity. I find no evidence of other potential drivers such as increased labor supply, or changes in cultural preferences. These findings provide evidence of labor market frictions preventing people from accessing their most productive occupations and locations, and shed light on the resilience of internees who overcame a very adverse initial shock.
    Keywords: labor mobility, displacement, Japanese American Internment, WorldWar II, diversity
    JEL: J61 J62 N32 O15
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12554&r=all
  5. By: Kylo-Patrick Hart (Texas Christian University)
    Abstract: As he achieved growing recognition and fame as a singer-songwriter and lead vocalist of the rock band The Doors, Jim Morrison came to embody, in the assessment of his bandmate Ray Manzarek, the spirit of ?hippie counterculture rebellion? during the second half of the decade of the 1960s. In part that is because, with his revolutionary spirit and personal views pertaining to radical potentialities, Morrison began to serve as an impressive icon of the generation gap that existed between young people who hoped to change the world and older individuals, including conventional authority figures, who seemed set in their ways. Accordingly, this presentation examines Morrison?s status as a desirable leader of the youth counterculture in the United States during the 1960s. It demonstrates how Morrison?s outspoken views, bohemian lifestyle, rebellious personality, unpredictable performing style, experiences with psychedelic drugs and alcohol, extensive literary knowledge (which ranged from the works of Beat poets and writers to French existentialist philosophers), and intentional attempts to spark riots effectively combined to position him as an appealing 'guiding spirit' and source of solidarity to countless members of the youth counterculture of his day. It further demonstrates the substantial personal toll this cultural status took on Morrison as his career progressed toward the early 1970s, when he endeavored to take his métier in new directions yet found himself trapped in a celebrity persona he no longer wished to call his own, even though it was very much of his own making.
    Keywords: celebrity personacountercultureThe Doorsgeneration gapJim Morrisonradical potentialitiesThe Sixtiessolidarity
    JEL: L82 A31 D74
    Date: 2019–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iahpro:9310706&r=all
  6. By: Jensen, Peter Sandholt (Department of Business and Economics); Radu, Cristina Victoria (Department of Business and Economics); Sharp, Paul Richard (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: The calculation of the number of days worked per year is crucial for understanding pre‐industrial living standards, and yet has presented considerable obstacles due to data scarcity. We present evidence on days worked and seasonality patterns of work using evidence from a large database of micro‐level labor market data for eighteenth century rural Denmark. We estimate that workers worked approximately 5.6 days per week when under full employment. Seasonality of work meant, however, that they were unlikely to find employment during the winter, bringing the estimated number of working days per year to 184. This is lower than often assumed in the literature on real wage calculations, but in line with recent evidence for Malmö and London. We find that days worked increased over the eighteenth century, consistent with the idea of an “industrious revolution”. We suggest however that this was probably mostly due to economic necessity rather than a consumer revolution, since unskilled and low skilled workers needed to work over 300 days per year to afford a subsistence basket.
    Keywords: Working year; seasonality patterns; real wages; annual workers; casual workers; Denmark; eighteenth century
    JEL: J22 N33
    Date: 2019–08–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2019_010&r=all
  7. By: Noel Packard (University of Auckland)
    Abstract: Levine?s Surveillance Valley reports how the Internet was privatized without public debate or resistance but overlooks decades of neoliberal economic and anti-communist purging history that had chilling effects on public resistance to Internet privatization - that history gap is explored here. How did military-industrial-complex contractors, using neoliberal and Communist threat rational, incentivize Internet development, while lessening the possibility of public interference to Internet privatization? Weber?s special-skilled-occupational-status-group-theory is overlaid onto neoliberal economic and military-industrial-complex history to argue occupational-contractor-status-groups, with their monopoly access to early computer technology, fulfilled neoliberal doctrine by creating and protecting private markets for the Internet and exploited Communist threat rational to help clear the privatization path of people who might impede market plans.
    Keywords: Internet, neoliberal, DARPA, Communist Threat, Cold War, national security
    JEL: A14 H56 O33
    Date: 2019–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iahpro:9311611&r=all
  8. By: Tatjana ?epi? (The Polytechnic of Rijeka)
    Abstract: Emily Brontë (1818-1848) wrote a single novel and some two hundred poems. George Sand (1804-1876) was a prolific author and one at home in diverse genres, from fiction, autobiographical and political texts, to theatre pieces. These two women writers also had different family backgrounds and different personalities. In spite of the obvious differences, they had some common interests, such as the love of nature and music, vivid and creative imagination. Passionate and curious readers since their earliest childhood, they read avidly whatever was available to them without any restrictions, an experience that shaped their literary tastes and inspired their first attempts at writing at an early age. Inclined to daydreaming and making up stories, as a way of coping with traumatic losses they experienced in their childhood, little Emily and Aurore (future George Sand) started creating their imaginary worlds that would accompany them for the rest of their lives. Brontë's poetry and her lost Gondal saga, and Sand's oral and ?silent? novel of Corambé were the sources of inspiration and poetic space from which their mature works Wuthering Heights and Mauprat would be created.Besides numerous similarities between these two novels in the plot, structure, characters and semantically coded space and landscape, both literary texts bear affinities to another form of art, namely, to music. Emily Brontë's and George Sand's great love of music is mirrored in the structure and texture of their narratives at both macro and micro-level: from the polyphonic structure and the four movement form of a symphony or a sonata, together with multiple narrative voices, the variations and development of primary and secondary themes (of love?romantic, transcendent, parental, sibling, and the denial of love, of violence, the dichotomy between nature and culture), the repetition of motifs that appear as antithetical polarities in dialogue (of [non-identical] doubles and the problem of fragmented identity, of freedom and confinement, of reason and madness, life and death), the elements of folklore and the supernatural, lyrical and dramatic passages to poetic imagery, language and rhythm of their prose. Wuthering Heights and Mauprat can therefore be read as novels written by poetesses-musicians who crossed medial boundaries and created musical novels by borrowing structures, techniques and impressions typical of a classical piece of music. Like a musical score, Wuthering Heights and Mauprat with their complex structure and nature exist as a unique piece of art, offering at the same time different possibilities of interpretation.
    Keywords: Wuthering Heights, Mauprat, musical novel, poetesses-musicians, interpretation
    Date: 2019–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iahpro:9310793&r=all
  9. By: Francisco Castillo (Universidad Distrital FJdC)
    Abstract: The first part of this paper identifies some of the reasons why evolutionism has been avoided in historical musicology in the Latin American context, including political ideologies, postcolonial studies, and philosophical positions. Moreover, nature has been used many times as an argument to validate music theory and musical hierarchies, causing the links between biology and musicology to be full of faults made by past thinkers. The second part presents some arguments derived from analysis, critically reviewing the objections to musical evolutionism and showing how these have misunderstood the basic principle of natural selection. The paper also discusses the possible claim of evolutionary biology as a useful tool in order to understand music history, while contributing to current discussions in music historiography.
    Keywords: Music History, Evolutionism, Historical musicology
    JEL: Y90
    Date: 2019–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iahpro:9310902&r=all
  10. By: Belke, Ansgar H. (University of Duisburg-Essen); Volz, Ulrich (SOAS University of London)
    Abstract: Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry‐specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry‐specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.
    Keywords: Yen appreciation, exchange rates, japanese manufacturing, hollowing out, hysteresis
    JEL: F31 O14
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12565&r=all
  11. By: Christopher Hoag (Department of Economics, Trinity College)
    Abstract: In the late nineteenth century, clearinghouse loan certificates served as an early lender of last resort program during financial crises. This paper uses individual bank data to evaluate whether senior bank executive experience with borrowing loan certificates in a previous financial crisis influences the amount of borrowing loan certificates in the next crisis. Borrowing loan certificates in 1907 in New York City correlates with borrowing loan certificates in the previous crisis of 1893 even after controlling for individual bank characteristics. Further, the results suggest that senior bank executives with experience at the same bank during the previous crisis of 1893 borrowed smaller amounts of loan certificates in 1907.
    Keywords: lender of last resort; executive; learning; clearinghouse loan certificate.
    JEL: G21 G32 N21
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tri:wpaper:1903&r=all
  12. By: Liss, Erik (The Ratio Institute); Korpi, Martin (The Ratio Institute); Wennberg , Karl (The Ratio Institute)
    Abstract: Despite a sizeable literature on relative income mobility across generations, there is a dearth of studies of absolute mobility across generations, i.e. whether current generations earn more or less than their parents did at the same age, as well as how to explain the level of absolute mobility. We use individual micro data to study the trend in intergenerational absolute income mobility measured as the share of sons and daughters earning more than their fathers and mothers, respectively, for eleven Swedish birth cohorts between 1970 and 1980. We find that absolute mobility in Sweden significantly exceeds that of the United States and is largely on par with Canada. The rate of absolute mobility for women exceeds that of men throughout the study period, however the trend has been stronger for men. Using an augmented decomposition model which supplements standard models by accounting for differences in the income distribution of every birth cohort’s parent generation, we find that heterogeneity in the parent income distribution strongly determines how much economic growth contributes to absolute mobility across birth cohorts. If income inequality is high in the parent generation, more growth is required if children that move downward in the relative income distribution are to earn more than their parents.
    Keywords: Absolute mobility; income decomposition; intergenerational income mobility; social mobility
    JEL: D31 D63 E24 J62
    Date: 2019–09–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0325&r=all
  13. By: Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Chansik Yoon (Princeton University)
    Abstract: What has been the effect of uncertainty shocks in the U.S. economy over the last century? What are the historical roles of the financial channel and monetary policy channel in propagating uncertainty shocks? Our empirical strategies enable us to distinguish between the effects of uncertainty shocks on key macroeconomic and financial variables transmitted through each channel. A hundred years of data further allow us to answer these questions from a novel historical perspective. This paper finds robust evidence that financial conditions have played a crucial role in propagating uncertainty shocks over the last century, supporting many theoretical and empirical studies emphasizing the role of financial frictions in understanding uncertainty shocks. However, heightened uncertainty does not amplify the adverse effect of financial shocks, suggesting an asymmetric interaction between uncertainty and financial shocks. Interestingly, the stance of monetary policy seems to play only a minor role in propagating uncertainty shocks, which is in sharp contrast to the recent claim that binding zero-lower-bound amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty shocks. We argue that the contribution of constrained monetary policy to amplifying uncertainty shocks is largely masked by the joint concurrence of binding zero-lower-bound and tightened financial conditions.
    Keywords: uncertainty shocks; financial channel; counterfactual VARs; local projections; zero-lower- bound
    JEL: E31 E32 E44 G10
    Date: 2019–08–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2019_020&r=all
  14. By: Remi Jedwab (George Washington University); Noel D. Johnson (George Mason University); Mark Koyama (George Mason University)
    Abstract: The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Despite its historical importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.Creation-Date: 2019-03
    Keywords: Pandemics; Black Death; Mortality; Path Dependence; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Migration; Growth; Europe
    JEL: R11 R12 O11 O47 J11 N00 N13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2019-3&r=all
  15. By: Clement Tisdell (University of Queensland [Brisbane]); Serge Svizzero (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion)
    Abstract: The literature explaining social collapse mainly focuses on factors such as wars, climate change or disease, as exemplified by numerous examples of collapses which have occurred during the Late Bronze Age in the Near East and in the South-eastern Mediterranean region. This paper aims at demonstrating that collapse can also have economic reasons. Indeed, collapse may be the outcome of an economic growth process which is inherently unsustainable. More precisely, we claim that several ancient societies collapsed because their form of economic development eventually proved to be unable to sustain their standard of living. It is believed that the Únĕtice societies (which existed in the central European Early Bronze Age) were among those that collapsed for that reason. Two different simple models are presented to demonstrate how agricultural economies of this type which introduced bronze mining and metallurgy were unable to sustain their economic development.
    Keywords: unsustainable development,Bronze Age,elite,economic surplus,mining productivity,Únĕtice culture.
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02274889&r=all
  16. By: Mahdi Majbouri (Babson College, Wellesley, MA)
    Abstract: Using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and publicly available datasets, this study measures the effect of the Iranian Cultural Revolution, during which all institutions of tertiary education were closed for 30 months, on college attainment rates of affected cohorts. The results show that this elimination of higher education supply reduced men’s college attainment rate by only two percentage points (about 15%) while it had no impact on women’s. Moreover, using this natural experiment, it finds the returns to college and above education to be about 100%. These results provide an example showing that when demand for education is high, a temporary reduction in supply may have little long-term impact.
    Date: 2019–08–21
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1313&r=all
  17. By: Pier Paolo Saviotti (Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands, GREDEG CNRS, Sophia Antipolis, France); Andreas Pyka (Economics Institute, University of Hohenheim, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany); Bogang Jun (Department of Economics, Inha University)
    Abstract: This study explores the effect of education on the balance between income per capita and income distribution using the TEVECON model in which growth and development are driven by innovation, giving rise to new sectors. Our results can explain the Golden Age of Capitalism (1950 -1973), characterized by high growth rates and low inequality. Our experiments varying investment in education and its allocation to two social classes define a range of education policies that can lead to many combinations of income per capita and income distribution. We find that education can affect both the creation of high income per capita and income distribution, but it does not always guarantee ``positive'' economic outcomes in terms of the variables we investigate. Thus, of the development paths, our results include both scenarios similar to that described by the Kuznets curve and less ``virtuous'' ones similar to that detected by Piketty and Saez, in which economic progress is accompanied by increasingly inegalitarian income distribution. Moreover, our model predicts that even in highly developed economic systems, different education policies can give rise to combinations of high income per capita and low inequality or low income per capita and low inequality. In this context, a shift from a regime of high growth and falling income inequality, similar to the one observed in the 1950s to 1980s (P1), to a regime of lower growth and increasing income inequality, similar to the one observed in the 1980s to 2000s (P2), could have been produced by a transition from falling inequality in the distribution of education in P1 to rising inequality in the distribution of education in P2. Education alone cannot be considered to be the cause of the transition over P1-P2. Other factors such as liberalization and deregulation that began in the 1980s and increasing globalization, which has been greatly accelerated by the emergence of China, help transform the economic system in the same broad direction. In a general sense, our study shows that while education can greatly contribute to economic development, it is not an intrinsically beneficial force leading automatically to a richer and fairer society.
    Keywords: Income distribution, Education, Development, Co-evolution
    JEL: F44 G31 G35
    Date: 2019–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2019-2&r=all
  18. By: Tölö, Eero
    Abstract: We consider predicting systemic financial crises one to five years ahead using recurrent neural networks. The prediction performance is evaluated with the Jorda-Schularick-Taylor dataset, which includes the crisis dates and relevant macroeconomic series of 17 countries over the period 1870-2016. Previous literature has found simple neural network architectures to be useful in predicting systemic financial crises. We show that such predictions can be greatly improved by making use of recurrent neural network architectures, especially suited for dealing with time series input. The results remain robust after extensive sensitivity analysis.
    JEL: G21 C45 C52
    Date: 2019–08–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2019_014&r=all
  19. By: Yuki Kani (Graduate school of Business Administration and Computer Science, Aichi Institute of Technology); Katsunori Fujii (Graduate school of Business Administration and Computer Science, Aichi Institute of Technology); Toshiro Sakai (Chubu University); Nozomi Tanaka (Tokai Gakuen University); Yuzuru Naito (Graduate school of Business Administration and Computer Science, Aichi Institute of Technology); Yusaku Ogura (Graduate school of Business Administration and Computer Science, Aichi Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has published measurement records on height, weight, chest circumference, and head circumference in 0 to 6 year-old children from 1960 to 2010 as indicators of physical development in early childhood in Japan. Physical development evaluation charts have been developed from these records using percentile methods, but reports on the trends in physical development over time are limited. This is because no method has been established to scientifically analyze physical growth. Even more difficult is investigating secular trends in physical growth and linking those trends to economic growth. In this study, we identified the first largest peak velocity (FLPV) during the year after birth in infant physical growth records (height, weight, chest circumference, head circumference), and applied the wavelet interpolation model to the variations over time in the identified FLPV. Next, we applied the wavelet interpolation model to the secular variations in GDP for the same years. We then applied a cross correlation function to the relationship between the curves of FLPV and GDP variations over time, and investigated how high economic growth acts as a controlling factor variations in physical development of young children over time. The speed of variation in the physical development of children over time was the greatest around 1980. By synchronizing GDP to that time, the results suggest that high economic growth is a controlling factor in the physical development of young children.
    Keywords: Twins , Similarity , Measurement system, Growth velocity curve, Wavelet Interpolation Method
    JEL: I00 I10 I19
    Date: 2019–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:9211520&r=all
  20. By: Guzi, Martin (Masaryk University); Huber, Peter (WIFO - Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University)
    Abstract: We analyze the long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland after World War II on residential migration. This event involved expulsion of ethnic Germans and almost complete depopulation of an area of a country and its rapid resettlement by 2 million Czech inhabitants. Results based on nearest neighbor matching and regression discontinuity design show a higher population churn in resettled areas that continues today. The populations in resettled areas and in the remainder of the country share similar values and do not differ statistically in terms of their propensity to give donations, attend social events, and participate in voluntary work. However, we observe that resettled settlements have fewer local club memberships, lower turnout in municipal elections, and less frequently organized social events. This finding indicates substantially lower local social capital in the resettled settlements that is likely to have caused higher residential migration. This explanation is consistent with theoretical models of the impact of social capital on migration decisions.
    Keywords: migration, social capital, Sudetenland
    JEL: N44 Z10 R23 J15
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12536&r=all
  21. By: Yamamura, Eiji (Seinan Gakuin University); Powdthavee, Nattavudh (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: What determines human beings' decisions to donate money to a charity? Using a nationally representative survey of the Japanese population, we demonstrate that having been taught by a female teacher in their first year of school makes individuals more likely to donate to charities following natural disasters. The findings are robust in controlling for lessons on prosocial behaviors, such as group learning. We tested our results separately for men and women, as well as on prosocial attitude outcomes. Overall, our results suggest potential prosocial implications may arise from teacher-student gender matching.
    Keywords: charitable giving, gender, prosocial, Japan, natural disaster, donation
    JEL: D64 I20
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12528&r=all
  22. By: Clement Tisdell; Serge Svizzero (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion)
    Date: 2019–08–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02274893&r=all
  23. By: Bardt, Hubertus
    Abstract: It has now been 50 years since Apollo 11 landed on the moon. On 20 July 1969 (21 July German time), Neil Armstrong and Edwin 'Buzz' Aldrin became the first people to land on the moon. It marked a decisive victory in the space race between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Apollo program was not an economic project. By today's metrics, it cost over USD 140 billion (based on Wilford, 1969, 67). Meanwhile, aerospace is not only a government-subsidised business, but rather has also become attractive for private companies. The United States announced that it plans to send American astronauts to the moon again within the next five years (Sueddeutsche.de, 2019). Whether that will succeed is still unclear. The business community, however, is already searching for opportunities in space today.
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:432019e&r=all
  24. By: Serge Svizzero (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion); Clement Tisdell
    Date: 2019–08–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02274856&r=all
  25. By: Antoni, Manfred (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Vom Berge; Philipp
    Abstract: "This data report describes the 'Regional File' of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2017. This dataset represents the factual anonymous version of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) and may be transmitted to scientific research institutions after concluding a use agreement with the IAB." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Frequencies and labels
    Keywords: Integrierte Arbeitsmarktbiografien, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenanonymisierung, Datenqualität, Datenaufbereitung
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:201904_en&r=all
  26. By: Dale-Olsen, Harald (Institute for Social Research, Oslo)
    Abstract: Does the creative destruction induced by unions entail increased social security uptake? Creative destruction implies the closures of less productive workplaces, and if the regional benefits from this process is not large enough, the displacements caused by workplace closures cause increased social security uptake. In this paper we apply a shift-share approach and historical unionisation data from 1918 to study the impact of regional unionisation changes in Norway on regional social security uptake during the period 2003-2012. As regional unionisation increases, inflows to regional unemployment and disability decrease, but the outflow to retirement increases.
    Keywords: trade unions, creative destruction, unemployment, disability insurance, retirement
    JEL: D24 J30 J51
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12546&r=all
  27. By: Antoni, Manfred (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Vom Berge; Philipp
    Abstract: "This data report describes the 'Regional File' of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB-R) 1975 - 2017. This dataset represents the factual anonymous version of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) and may be transmitted to scientific research institutions after concluding a use agreement with the IAB." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Auszählungen
    Keywords: Integrierte Arbeitsmarktbiografien, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenanonymisierung, Datenqualität, Datenaufbereitung
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:201904_de&r=all

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