nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒08‒19
29 papers chosen by

  1. The impact of border changes and protectionism on real wages in early modern Scania By Kathryn E. Gary; Cristina Victoria Radu
  2. Commanding Nature by Obeying Her: A Review Essay on Joel Mokyr's A Culture of Growth By Enrico Spolaore
  3. Changing perspectives in political economy By Mayntz, Renate
  4. The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal By Crafts, Nicholas; Mills, Terence C.
  5. Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile By Dong Cheng; Mario J Crucini; Hyunseung Oh; Hakan Yilmazkuday
  6. Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks and the Sterilization of Capital Flows in the First Era of Globalization (1891-1913) By Bazot, Guillaume; Monnet, Eric; Morys, Matthias
  7. Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle By Eric Monnet; Damien Puy
  8. Fertility and Modernity By Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg
  9. Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration By Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
  10. Benchmarking the Middle Ages. XV century Tuscany in European Perspective By Jan Luiten van Zanden; Emanuele Felice
  11. The yen exchange rate and the hollowing out of the Japanese industry By Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
  13. The long-term consequences of the global 1918 influenza pandemic: A systematic analysis of 117 IPUMS international census data sets By Sebastian Vollmer; Juditha Wójcik
  14. The Roots of Female Emancipation: From Perennial Cool Water via Pre-industrial Late Marriages to Post-industrial Gender Equality By Manuel Santos Silva; Amy C. Alexander; Stephan Klasen; Christian Welzel
  15. Danger To The Old Lady Of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act And The Regime Shift To Paper Money, 1797-18211 By Patrick K. O’Brien; Nuno Palma
  16. Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? By Qazi Haque; Nicolas Groshenny; Mark Weder
  17. Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? By Qazi Haque; Nicolas Groshenny; Mark Weder
  18. Deutsche Bank and its strategy change: What it means for the German financial system By Schmidt, Reinhard H.
  19. Female empowerment, cultural effects and savings: Empirical evidence from India By Ute Filipiak; Antonia Grohmann; Franziska Heyerhorst
  20. Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Continuous Treatment By Yingying DONG; Ying-Ying LEE; Michael GOU
  21. Planificación urbana en América Latina: el caso de Valledupar (Colombia) By Jaime Bonet-Morón; Diana Ricciulli-Marín
  22. Education and Polygamy : Evidence from Cameroon By André, Pierre; Dupraz, Yannick
  23. The Fetters of Inheritance? Equal Partition and Regional Economic Development By Thilo R. Huning; Fabian Wahl
  24. The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises By Ceyhun Bora Durdu; Alex Martin; Ilknur Zer
  25. The Evolving Distribution of Payments From Commodity, Conservation, and Federal Crop Insurance Programs By McFadden, Jonathan R.; Hoppe, Robert A.
  26. Internal migration and the spread of long-term impacts of historical immigration in Brazil By Cenci, Eduardo; Lopes, Daniel A. F.; Monasterio, Leonardo M.
  27. How to double yields in 50 years: lessons from across the Great Plains By Trindade, Federico J.; Fulginiti, Lilyan E.; Perrin, Richard K.
  28. Privatization in developing countries: what are the lessons of recent experience? By Estrin, Saul; Pelletier, Adeline
  29. The impact of unemployment on antidepressant purchasing: adjudting for unobserved time-constant confounding in the g-formula By Bijlsma, Maarten J.; Wilson, Ben; Tarkiainen, Lasse; Myrskylä, Mikko; Martikainen, Pekka

  1. By: Kathryn E. Gary (Lund University); Cristina Victoria Radu (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: In the aftermath of Brexit there has been increased speculation into what national borders mean for economic and individual wellbeing. Investigating similar events in history can help us understand some of these potential effects. Malmö, a city in modern-day southern Sweden, was a part of Denmark until the middle of the seventeenth century, located just across the Sound from the capital of Copenhagen. Malmö and its surrounding regions were ceded to Sweden at the end of the Second Northern War in 1658 and Sweden immediately established barriers to trade and to human capital flow between its new territories and Denmark, going so far as to prohibit Swedish attendance to Copenhagen University and instead establishing its own university in Lund in 1666. Malmö and its surrounding region, Scania, quickly shifted from an important trade city located within sight of the capital to a distant periphery with limited trade capacity. This change in possession of Scania provides a historical experiment that can highlight the effect of the second nature geography changes as well as protectionism on well-being. We use a novel database of Danish and Swedish real wages to investigate the impact of these changes on Scanian living standards by employing a difference in difference approach to show that wages fell more in Scania than those in surrounding regions in relation to the border change and associated protectionism.
    Keywords: Border Changes, Real Wages, Second Nature Geography, Welfare Ratios, Standard of Living, Denmark, Sweden, Malmo, Scania, Scandinavia, Early Modern Period
    JEL: J31 N33 N93
    Date: 2019–08
  2. By: Enrico Spolaore
    Abstract: Why is modern society capable of cumulative innovation? In A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy, Joel Mokyr persuasively argues that sustained technological progress stemmed from a change in cultural beliefs. The change occurred gradually during the seventeenth and eighteenth century and was fostered by an intellectual elite that formed a transnational community and adopted new attitudes toward the creation and diffusion of knowledge, setting the foundation for the ethos of modern science. The book is a significant contribution to the growing literature that links culture and economics. This review discusses Mokyr’s historical analysis in relation to the following questions: What is culture and how should we use it in economics? How can culture explain modern economic growth? Will the culture of growth that caused modern prosperity persist in the future?
    Keywords: technological progress, innovation, useful knowledge, cultural change
    JEL: N13 N33 O30 O52 Z10
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Mayntz, Renate
    Abstract: The history of a research field called political economy dates back to the eighteenth century, giving rise to a variety of disciplinary approaches, and experienced a renaissance as a multidisciplinary field after the Second World War, combining economic, political science, and sociological approaches. The divergence between economic globalization and the nationally restricted scope of economic policy directs interest to the relationship between politics and the economy. A quantitative analysis of the articles published in two dedicated political economy journals shows major trends of the developing research field. The relationship between politics and economy is interpreted rather widely, and research is largely focused on Western capitalist nations. In conclusion, two avenues for further research in the field are briefly discussed.
    Keywords: capitalism,history of political economy,relationship politics/economy,Western capitalist nations,Geschichte der politischen Ökonomie,Kapitalismus,Verhältnis Politik/Ökonomie,westliche kapitalistische Nationen
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Crafts, Nicholas (University of Warwick); Mills, Terence C. (Loughborough University)
    Abstract: This paper re-examines UK productivity growth in the decades before World War I using a new dataset compiled by Thomas and Dimsdale (2017). We find that the productivity slowdown of the early 20th century was quite modest and does not deserve to be called a climacteric. A more serious slowdown in labour productivity growth occurred in the 1870s. Neither of these episodes should be regarded as a precedent for the current severe deterioration in UK productivity performance. Nor should a late-Victorian productivity slowdown be attributed to the end of the steam age despite the popularity of this belief
    Keywords: climacteric ; growth accounting ; Hodrick-Prescott filter ; productivity slowdown
    JEL: N13 O47
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Dong Cheng; Mario J Crucini; Hyunseung Oh; Hakan Yilmazkuday
    Abstract: The beginning of the twentieth century provides a unique opportunity to explore the interaction of rapid technological progress and trade barriers in shaping the worldwide diffusion of a new, highly traded good: the automobile. We scrape historical data on the quantity and value of passenger vehicles exported from the United States to other destination countries, annually from 1913 to 1940. We model the rise of US automobile from global obscurity toward a level dependent upon the extent of long-run pass-through of US prices into destination markets and destination GDP per capita. The results based on a diffusion model with CES preferences and non-unitary income elasticity shows that 62% of the gap in diffusion levels between the U.S. and the rest of the world is due to price frictions such as markups, tariffs, and trade costs, while the remaining 38% is due to income effects.
    Keywords: Product Diffusion, Automobile, International Trade, Wedge Accounting
    JEL: F10 L62 N60 N70 O33
    Date: 2019–08
  6. By: Bazot, Guillaume; Monnet, Eric; Morys, Matthias
    Abstract: Are central banks able to isolate their domestic economy by offsetting the effects of foreign capital flows? We provide an answer for the First Age of Globalisation based on an exceptionally detailed and standardized database of monthly balance sheets of all central banks in the world (i.e. 21) over 1891-1913. Investigating the impact of a global interest rate shock on the exchange-rate, the interest rate and the central bank balance sheet, we find that not a single country played by the "rules of the game." Core countries fully sterilized capital flows, while peripheral countries also relied on convertibility restrictions to avoid reserve losses. In line with the predictions of the trilemma, the exchange rate absorbed the shock fully in countries off the gold standard (floating exchange rate): the central bank's balance sheet and interest rate were not affected. In contrast, in the United States, a gold standard country without a central bank, the reaction of the money market rate was three times stronger than that of interest rates in countries with a central bank. Central banks' balance sheets stood as a buffer between domestic economy and global financial markets.
    Keywords: central banking; Federal Reserve System; gold standard; rules of the game; Sterilization; trilemma
    JEL: E42 E50 F30 F44 N10 N20
    Date: 2019–07
  7. By: Eric Monnet; Damien Puy
    Abstract: Why did monetary authorities hold large gold reserves under Bretton Woods (1944–1971) when only the US had to? We argue that gold holdings were driven by institutional memory and persistent habits of central bankers. Countries continued to back currency in circulation with gold reserves, following rules of the pre-WWII gold standard. The longer an institution spent in the gold standard (and the older the policymakers), the stronger the correlation between gold reserves and currency. Since dollars and gold were not perfect substitutes, the Bretton Woods system never worked as expected. Even after radical institutional change, history still shapes the decisions of policymakers.
    Date: 2019–07–24
  8. By: Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of the fertility decline in Europe from 1830 to 1970 using a newly constructed dataset of linguistic distances between European regions. We find that the fertility decline resulted from a gradual diffusion of new fertility behavior from French-speaking regions to the rest of Europe. We observe that societies with higher education, lower infant mortality, higher urbanization, and higher population density had lower levels of fertility during the 19th and early 20th century. However, the fertility decline took place earlier and was initially larger in communities that were culturally closer to the French, while the fertility transition spread only later to societies that were more distant from the cultural frontier. This is consistent with a process of social influence, whereby societies that were linguistically and culturally closer to the French faced lower barriers to the adoption of new social norms and attitudes towards fertility control.
    Keywords: fertility control, diffusion, social norms, cultural barriers, demographic transition
    JEL: J10 J13 N00 N33
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
    Abstract: We show that the creation of the first integrated pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that interregional trade was strongly influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is largely explained by selective infrastructure routing and cultural integration due to bilateral convergence in preferences and values. Both plausibly arise from network-induced history of repeated socio-economic interaction. We show that our results are Roman-connectivity specific and do not reflect pre-existing patterns of exchange.
    Keywords: business links; cultural similarity; economic integration; Roman trade; transport network connectivity
    JEL: F15 F21 N73 O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2019–07
  10. By: Jan Luiten van Zanden; Emanuele Felice
    Abstract: The article presents GDP estimates for XV century Tuscany, based on the 1427 Florentine Catasto, one of the best quantitative sources for the Middle Ages. In 1427, Tuscany was in per capita GDP (in real terms) only slightly above England and Holland; this gap is much smaller than the one resulting from the previous GDP figures, produced by Paolo Malanima, when fit into the Maddison project. Our analysis highlights a fundamental institutional difference, between Florence on the one side, and England and Holland on the other: the former was characterized by high extractive rates in favor of the capital city, to the detriment of the subdued cities and, most of all, of the countryside; and by subsequent market blockades. This may explain why previous estimates, partly based on the construction wages in Florence (within the ‘privileged’ economy), probably overestimated GDP. It may also explain the exceptional artistic blossoming of XV century Florence, despite only a small lead in average GDP. Our work thus helps to shed new light on the history of Renaissance Italy, put into a broader comparative context.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, GDP, Middle Ages, Italy
    Date: 2017–10
  11. By: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Abstract: Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry-specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.
    Keywords: Yen appreciation,exchange rates,Japanese manufacturing,hollowing out,hysteresis
    JEL: F31 O14
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Department of Economics, University Of Kinshasa); Simplice A. Asongu (Department of Economics, University of South Africa)
    Abstract: One of the most disturbing contemporary episodes in human history that has been decried globally is the recent Libyan experience of slave trade, where migrants captured end-up being sold as slaves. We contribute to the understanding of this phenomenon by investigating the role of cognitive human capital in slave trade. To this end, we use the historic intelligence and slave trade variables respectively, as the independent and outcome variables of interest.
    Keywords: Slavery, Intelligence; Human Capital.
    JEL: R10
    Date: 2018–06
  13. By: Sebastian Vollmer; Juditha Wójcik
    Abstract: Several country-level studies, including a prominent one for the United States, have identified long-term effects of in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic (also known as the Spanish Flu) on economic outcomes in adulthood. In-utero conditions are theoretically linked to adult health and socioeconomic status through the fetal origins or Barker hypothesis. Historical exposure to the Spanish Flu provides a natural experiment to test this hypothesis. Although the Spanish Flu was a global phenomenon, with around 500 million people infected worldwide, there exists no comprehensive global study on its long-term economic effects. We attempt to close this gap by systematically analyzing 117 Census data sets provided by IPUMS International. We do not find consistent global long-term effects of influenza exposure on education, employment and disability outcomes. A series of robustness checks does not alter this conclusion. Our findings indicate that the existing evidence on long-term economic effects of the Spanish Flu is likely a consequence of publication bias.
    Date: 2017–12–06
  14. By: Manuel Santos Silva; Amy C. Alexander; Stephan Klasen; Christian Welzel
    Abstract: Reviewing the burgeoning literature on the deep historic roots of gender inequality, we theorize and provide evidence for an overlooked trajectory that (1) originates in a climatic configuration called the “Cool Water” (CW-) condition, from where the trajectory leads to (2) late female marriages in pre-industrial times, which eventually pave the way towards (3) various gender-egalitarian outcomes today. The CW-condition is a specific climatic configuration that combines periodically frosty winters with mildly warm summers under the ubiquitous accessibility of fresh water. The CW-condition is most prevalent in Northwestern Europe and its former colonial offshoots and embodies opportunity endowments that significantly reduce fertility pressures on women, which favored late female marriages already in the pre-industrial era. The resulting family and household patterns placed women into a better position to struggle for more gender equality during the subsequent transitions toward the industrial and post-industrial stages of development. Hence, enduring territorial differences in the CW-condition predict differences in pre-industrial female marriage ages, which in turn explain differences in gender equality today. The role of CW retains significance along this causal chain after controlling for other ‘deep drivers’ of gender inequality that have been discussed in the literature. We summarize these findings in a “seed theory of female emancipation” and conclude with a discussion of its broader implications.
    Keywords: Cool water; Economic development; Gender equality; Historic drivers; Seed theory
    JEL: J12 J16 N30 O15
    Date: 2017–11–13
  15. By: Patrick K. O’Brien; Nuno Palma
    Abstract: The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 was the unconventional monetary policy of its time. It suspended the convertibility of the Bank of England's notes into gold, a policy which lasted until 1821. The current historical consensus is that it was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetization, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves following a landing of French troops in Wales. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the suspension, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data which leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of prudential collaboration between the Bank and the Treasury.
    Keywords: Bank of England, financial revolution, fiat money, money supply, monetary policy commitment, reputation, time-consistency, regime shift
    Date: 2019–08
  16. By: Qazi Haque (University of Western Australia and CAMA); Nicolas Groshenny (School of Economics, University of Adelaide and CAMA); Mark Weder (Aarhus University and CAMA)
    Abstract: The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserves monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Ination by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend ination, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage-rigidity and nds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to ination but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era.
    Keywords: Trend ination, Monetary policy, Great Ination, Cost-push shocks, Indeterminacy, Wage sluggishnes, Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm
    JEL: E32 E52 E58
  17. By: Qazi Haque (University of Western Australia and CAMA); Nicolas Groshenny (School of Economics, University of Adelaide and CAMA); Mark Weder (Aarhus University and CAMA)
    Abstract: The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserves monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Ination by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend ination, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage-rigidity and nds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to ination but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era.
    Keywords: Trend ination, Monetary policy, Great Ination, Cost-push shocks, Indeterminacy, Wage sluggishnes, Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm
    JEL: E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2019–06
  18. By: Schmidt, Reinhard H.
    Abstract: In early July 2019, Christian Sewing, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, proclaimed a fundamental shift of the bank's strategy after finally obtaining the approval of the Supervisory Board, which the management seems to have requested for quite some time. The essential point of the reorientation is a deep cut into the bank's investment banking activities. At the same time, those parts of the bank's activity portfolio that had been the mainstay of Deutsche Bank's business 20 to 25 years ago, in particular lending to large and mid-sized German and European corporate clients, shall be strengthened in spite of a simultaneous reduction of the bank's staff by 18,000 FTEs over the next three years. The bank's CEO, who has only been in office since about one year, was reported to have called this shift of strategy a "return to the roots of Deutsche Bank" at the press conference at which it was announced, without, however, making it clear to which roots he was referring: those of some 40 years ago, when Deutsche Bank was essentially a Germany-focused commercial bank, or even those from the late 19th century, when the bank had been founded with the mission to become an international bank with a strong capital market-orientation. In any event, the press was impressed and keeps repeating these words, that deserve to be taken seriously and irrespective of their vagueness may be justified. If it were successfully implemented, this change of strategy would indeed be fundamental and imply undoing what Deutsche Bank's former management teams had aspired to do in the last 20 or 25 years. The newly announced strategy shift raises two questions. Can it be successful, and what does it mean for the bank itself and its shareholders, for its staff and for its clients? And what does it imply for the German financial system? This note focuses on the latter question. What makes it interesting is the fact that the last fundamental change of Deutsche Bank's strategy of two decades ago, which aimed at transforming Deutsche Bank from a Germany-centered commercial bank into a leading international investment bank, had a profound - and in my view clearly negative - effect on the entire German financial system.
    Keywords: German financial system,corporate governance,German banks
    Date: 2019
  19. By: Ute Filipiak; Antonia Grohmann; Franziska Heyerhorst
    Abstract: This paper looks at household consumption and financial decisions made in a matrilineal society where women are by culture the financial household managers. This culture was strongly altered by the British in the mid-19th century in particular through christian missionaries who proclaimed that the role of the household manager is ascribed to men and not to women. Using two different datasets, our results show that female empowerment is stronger and individuals keep following the traditional matrilineal Khasi rules the further they live away from the former British base. Instrumental variable estimates exploiting differences in distance to the former British base in Cherrapunji, suggest that households where women are empowered, spend more on welfare enhancing goods such as education and nutrition, but are less likely to have savings left at the end of the month, and that these effects are causal.
    Keywords: Female empowerment; savings; India
    JEL: I3 O1 R20 Z1
    Date: 2017–08–09
  20. By: Yingying DONG; Ying-Ying LEE; Michael GOU
    Abstract: Many empirical applications of regression discontinuity (RD) designs involve a continuous treatment. This paper establishes identification and bias-corrected robust inference for such RD designs. Causal identification is achieved by utilizing changes in the distribution of the continuous treatment at the RD threshold (including the usual mean change as a special case). Applying the proposed approach, we estimate the impacts of capital holdings on bank failure in the pre-Great Depression era. Our RD design takes advantage of the minimum capital requirements which change discontinuously with town size. We find that increased capital has no impacts on the long-run failure rates of banks.
    Date: 2019–08
  21. By: Jaime Bonet-Morón (Banco de la República de Colombia); Diana Ricciulli-Marín (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: Los estudios de caso sobre desarrollo urbano en Colombia se han concentrado en dos de las ciudades más pobladas: Bogotá y Medellín (Salazar, 2007; Beuf, 2012). Mientras tanto, el éxito en la planificación de otras ciudades con menor población ha sido menos visible. Este es el caso de Valledupar en la región del Caribe: a pesar de que ha sido destacado como un proceso exitoso de planificación urbana (Rojas y Daughters, 1998; Maldonado, 2004), permanece en gran parte sin explorar. El objetivo de este documento es reconstruir las diferentes etapas de la planificación urbana en Valledupar utilizando cartografía, archivos históricos, periódicos, entrevistas, documentos e imágenes. El período analizado abarca desde principios del siglo XX hasta las primeras décadas del siglo XXI. En su conjunto, la experiencia de Valledupar señala la importancia de formular y hacer cumplir los planes de desarrollo urbano. Igualmente, destaca el fortalecimiento institucional como un aspecto clave para el progreso local. **** ABSTRACT: The majority of studies on urban development in Colombia have concentrated in two of the biggest cities: Bogotá and Medellín (Salazar, 2007; Beuf, 2012). Meanwhile, the success of other smaller cities remains less visible. This is the case of Valledupar in the Colombian Caribbean region: although it has been highlighted by many authors as a case of successful urban planning, it remains largely unexplored (Rojas y Daughters, 1998; Maldonado, 2004). The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the different stages of urban planning in Valledupar using cartography, historical archives, newspapers, interviews, documents, and images. The period analyzed comprises from the beginning of the twentieth century to the first decades of the twenty-first century. In the aggregate, the experience of Valledupar points out the importance of formulating and enforcing urban development plans. In addition, strengthening of institutions appear to be of outmost importance for local progress.
    Keywords: Planificación urbana, desarrollo local, Colombia, Valledupar, Urban planning, local development, Colombia, Valledupar
    JEL: H70 N96 R58
    Date: 2019–08
  22. By: André, Pierre (University of Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA); Dupraz, Yannick (University of Warwick, CAGE)
    Abstract: We take advantage of a wave of school constructions in Cameroon after World War II and us evariations in school supply at the village level to estimate labor and marriage market returns to education in the 1976 population census. Education increases the likelihood to be in a polygamous union for men and for women, as well as the overall socioeconomic status of the spouse. We argue that education increases polygamy for women because it allows them to marry more educated and richer men, who are more likely to be polygamists. To show this, we estimate a structural model of marriage with polygamy. The positive affinity between a man’s polygamy and a woman’s education is mostly explained by the affinity of education.
    Keywords: polygamy ; education ; marriage ; matching models
    JEL: J12 I20 O12
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Thilo R. Huning (University of York); Fabian Wahl (University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: How can agricultural inheritance traditions affect structural change and economic development in rural areas? The most prominent historical traditions are primogeniture, where the oldest son inherits the whole farm, and equal partition, where land is split and each heir inherits an equal share. In this paper, we provide a theoretical model that links these inheritance traditions to the local allocation of labor and capital and to municipal development. First, we show that among contemporary municipalities in West Germany, equal partition is significantly related to measures of economic development. Second, we conduct OLS and fuzzy spatial RDD estimates for Baden-Württemberg in the 1950s and today. We find that inheritance rules caused, in line with our theoretical predictions, higher incomes, population densities, and industrialization levels in areas with equal partition. Results suggest that more than a third of the overall inter-regional difference in average per capita income in present-day Baden Württemberg, or 597 Euro, can be explained by equal partition.
    Keywords: Inheritance Rules, Sectoral Change, Regional Economic Development, Baden-Württemberg, Spatial Inequalities
    JEL: D02 D82 H11 H21 N93
    Date: 2019–08
  24. By: Ceyhun Bora Durdu; Alex Martin; Ilknur Zer
    Abstract: We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S., either in the form of trade links or significant share of USD-denominated liabilities. Conversely, if a country is integrated globally, rather than having a direct exposure, the effect is ambiguous. One possible channel we identify is capital flows: If the correction in capital flows is disorderly (e.g., sudden stops), the probability of banking crises increases. These findings suggest that the effect of U.S. monetary policy in global banking crises is not uniform and largely dependent on the nature of linkages with the U.S.
    Keywords: banking crises ; financial stability ; monetary policy shocks ; sudden stop
    JEL: G15 E44 E52 F42
    Date: 2019–05–28
  25. By: McFadden, Jonathan R.; Hoppe, Robert A.
    Abstract: Agricultural policies—through Federal commodity, conservation, and crop insurance programs—aim to mitigate the financial risks faced by farmers and the environmental risks posed by agricultural production. The programs also provide support to farmers through direct financial assistance, in the case of commodity and conservation programs, and through premium subsidies in the case of crop insurance. Changes in the structure of agriculture have changed the distribution of income support over time. Specifically, commodity program payments, some conservation program payments, and Federal crop insurance indemnities have shifted to larger farms as U.S. agricultural production continues to consolidate. Since the operators of larger farms have higher household incomes than those of smaller farms, commodity program payments and support through Federal crop insurance have also shifted to higher income households. This study details the extent of that shift over 25 years from 1991 through 2015.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2017–11
  26. By: Cenci, Eduardo; Lopes, Daniel A. F.; Monasterio, Leonardo M.
    Keywords: International Development
    Date: 2019–06–25
  27. By: Trindade, Federico J.; Fulginiti, Lilyan E.; Perrin, Richard K.
    Keywords: Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2019–06–25
  28. By: Estrin, Saul; Pelletier, Adeline
    Abstract: This paper reviews the recent empirical evidence on privatization in developing countries, with particular emphasis on new areas of research such as the distributional impacts of privatization. Overall, the literature now reflects a more cautious and nuanced evaluation of privatization. Thus, private ownership alone is no longer argued to automatically generate economic gains in developing economies; pre-conditions (especially the regulatory infrastructure) and an appropriate process of privatization are important for attaining a positive impact. These comprise a list which is often challenging in developing countries: well-designed and sequenced reforms; the implementation of complementary policies; the creation of regulatory capacity; attention to poverty and social impacts; and strong public communication. Even so, the studies do identify the scope for efficiency-enhancing privatization that also promotes equity in developing countries
    JEL: N0 J50
    Date: 2018–03–22
  29. By: Bijlsma, Maarten J.; Wilson, Ben; Tarkiainen, Lasse; Myrskylä, Mikko; Martikainen, Pekka
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: The estimated effect of unemployment on depression may be biased by time-varying, intermediate, and time-constant confounding. One of the few methods that can account for these sources of bias is the parametric g-formula, but until now this method has required that all relevant confounders be measured. METHODS: We combine the g-formula with methods to adjust for unmeasured time-constant confounding. We use this method to estimate how antidepressant purchasing is affected by a hypothetical intervention that provides employment to the unemployed. The analyses are based on an 11% random sample of the Finnish population who were 30-35 years of age in 1995 (n = 49,753) and followed until 2012. We compare estimates that adjust for measured baseline confounders and time-varying socioeconomic covariates (confounders and mediators) with estimates that also include individual-level fixed-effect intercepts. RESULTS: In the empirical data, around 10% of person-years are unemployed. Setting these person-years to employed, the g-formula without individual intercepts found a 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5%, 7.4%) reduction in antidepressant purchasing at the population level. However, when also adjusting for individual intercepts, we find no association (-0.1%; 95% CI = -1.8%, 1.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the relationship between unemployment and antidepressants is confounded by residual time-constant confounding (selection). However, restrictions on the effective sample when using individual intercepts can compromise the validity of the results. Overall our approach highlights the potential importance of adjusting for unobserved time-constant confounding in epidemiologic studies and demonstrates one way that this can be done.
    Keywords: confounding; depression; g-formula; selection; unemployment
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–05–01

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