nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒07‒22
28 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Commanding Nature by Obeying Her: A Review Essay on Joel Mokyr’s A Culture of Growth By Enrico Spolaore
  2. Weather shocks,poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy By Chambru, Cédric
  3. Fonti fiscali e stime patrimoniali. Gli ebrei di Genova nella prima metà del Settecento By Zanini, Andrea
  4. A Comment on Jorda’s Paper. “Two Kinds of Sloth at Industrial Age: The Surveys of the Philanthropes of the 19th Century and the Lafargue’s Refutation” By Fabien Tarrit
  5. Emigration from the UK 1870-1913: Quantity and Quality By Timothy J. Hatton
  6. French Consumer Co-operatives: Pioneers of French Modern Distribution By Magali Boespflug; Bruno Mazières
  7. China's lost generation: Changes in beliefs and their intergenerational transmission By Roland, Gerard; Yang, David Y.
  8. Australian macro-econometric models and their construction - A short history By Adrian Pagan
  9. The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence By Katrin Assenmacher; Franz Seitz; Jörn Tenhofen
  12. Long-term Effects from Early Exposure to Research: Evidence from the NIH "Yellow Berets'' By Pierre Azoulay; Wesley H. Greenblatt; Misty L. Heggeness
  13. The linguistic identity lojana seen from the lojanismos in The exodus of Yangana of Ángel Felicísimo Rojas By Cristhian Sarango
  15. A Classical View of the Business Cycle By Michael T. Belongia; Peter N. Ireland
  16. Fertility Decline in the Civil Rights Era By Owen Thompson
  17. Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era : a speech at "Bretton Woods: 75 Years Later—Thinking about the Next 75," a conference organized by the Banque de France and the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance, Paris, France, July 16, 2019. By Powell, Jerome H.
  18. Economic Geography Aspects of the Panama Canal By Stephan E. Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
  19. Intelligence and Slave Exports from Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Oasis Kodila-Tedika
  20. Pink, gender, and automobile By Kévin Bideaux; Guillaume Lebègue
  21. Financial Reforms and Industrialisation: Evidence from Nigeria By Oludele E. Folarin
  22. From Good to Bad Concentration? U.S. Industries over the past 30 years By Matias Covarrubias; Germán Gutiérrez; Thomas Philippon
  23. Freeway Revolts! By Brinkman, Jeffrey; Lin, Jeffrey
  24. A Mathematical Analysis of an Election System Proposed by Gottlob Frege By Paul Harrenstein; Marie-Louise Lackner; Martin Lackner
  25. Autobiography, Philosophy and Writing: The Unamuno Case By Cirilo Flórez
  26. Is internet on the right track? The digital divide, path dependence, and the rollout of New Zealand’s ultra-fast broadband By Apatov, Eyal; Chappell, Nathan; Grimes, Arthur
  27. Liquidity and Borrowing from a Lender of Last Resort during the Crisis of 1884 By Christopher Hoag
  28. China's overseas lending By Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph

  1. By: Enrico Spolaore
    Abstract: Why is modern society capable of cumulative innovation? In A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy, Joel Mokyr persuasively argues that sustained technological progress stemmed from a change in cultural beliefs. The change occurred gradually during the seventeenth and eighteenth century and was fostered by an intellectual elite that formed a transnational community and adopted new attitudes toward the creation and diffusion of knowledge, setting the foundation for the ethos of modern science. The book is a significant contribution to the growing literature that links culture and economics. This review discusses Mokyr’s historical analysis in relation to the following questions: What is culture and how should we use it in economics? How can culture explain modern economic growth? Will the culture of growth that caused modern prosperity persist in the future?
    JEL: N0 N13 N33 O3 O52 Z1
    Date: 2019–07
  2. By: Chambru, Cédric
    Abstract: Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data I assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–89. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but no significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration may help to increase the coping capacity of local communities in which they were widely used. Migrant labourers brought remittances to supplement communities’ resources and also temporarily relieve their communities of the burden of feeding them. I show that temperature shocks were strongly associated with increase in the property crimes rate, but the effect is much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence to show that the inflow of remittances may drive this relationship.
    Keywords: Weather shocks, Migration, Crime, Grain prices, Savoy, 18th Century
    JEL: J61 N33 N53 Q10
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Zanini, Andrea
    Abstract: This paper examines the problem of quantifying the wealth of the Jews of Genoa during the first half of the eighteenth-century, starting from unpublished sources compiled for tax purposes. Although the values recorded do not reflect the real consistency of wealth, but represent a rough estimate of the fiscal capacity, they offer a new picture of the social stratification of the Jewish community of the time, and allow us to identify its prominent members.
    Keywords: Jewish community; Social stratification; Fiscal system; Direct taxation; Northern Italy
    JEL: N33 N93
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Fabien Tarrit (REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne)
    Date: 2019–06–30
  5. By: Timothy J. Hatton
    Abstract: In this paper I revisit the determinants of emigration from the UK during the age of mass migration from 1870 to 1913. During those years the cumulative gross outflow was 10 million while the net outflow of nearly 6 million amounted to 13 percent of the UK population in 1913. I focus on the determinants of emigration to the three principal destinations, the USA, Canada and Australia and New Zealand combined. In the absence of restrictive immigration policies, the flow of emigration to these destinations responded to economic shocks and trends. I also investigate differences in the skill content of emigration, as represented by the occupational composition of adult male emigrants to these three destinations. Emigrants to Australia and New Zealand were more skilled on average than those heading across the Atlantic, a feature that does not correspond well with skill differentials in the manner predicted by the Roy model. While assisted passages (subsidised fares) increased the volume of emigration to Australia and New Zealand they cannot account for its higher skill content.
    Date: 2019–07
  6. By: Magali Boespflug (CE.RE.GE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - ULR - Université de La Rochelle - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers); Bruno Mazières (CREOP - Centre de Recherches sur l'Entreprise, les Organisations et le Patrimoine - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)
    Abstract: Purpose This research aims at explaining how consumer cooperatives have been pioneers of modern distribution in France. These companies issued from the 19 th century socialist utopia provided the basis for both modern marketing and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) principles. Using an historical approach, we will introduce the different cooperative innovations that were finally adopted by the main actors of the French distribution sector. The case: French consumer cooperatives The choice of this specific type of company has been motivated by different reasons. First, it is a very old form of distribution. Indeed, even if it has been developed on a larger scale and on a sustainable way by the Rochdale Society of Equitable Pioneers in England during the 19 th century, the very first one was developed in Lyon (France) in 1835 by the "Canuts" [silk industry workers]. This form of cooperative originated in social movements led by unsatisfied customers. Then, its legal status is original for a consumer cooperative belongs to its customers (the so-called members or co-operators) in charge of marketing goods at a fair price and ensuring the sustainability of the cooperative. Lastly, consumer cooperatives have been leaders of the French distribution sector from the 19 th century to the 1980s. Methodology Data collection was based on both primary and secondary sources. Relevant information was taken from literature about the cooperative sector and the French distribution industry. We also had access to the archives of Coop Atlantique (the most important remaining French consumer cooperative) and public archives. This documentary research work was completed by several semi-directive individual interviews and focus groups with different consumer cooperative stakeholders, such as customers, co-operators, employees, and managers (active and retired). We also organized and were part of seminars on cooperatives , which gave us the opportunity to interact with both professional (co-operative managers or members of cooperative federations) and academic (researchers in History, Economy, Marketing and Semiology) stakeholders. Consumer cooperatives as pioneers We were able to identify two fields in which French consumer cooperatives could be considered as pioneers in France: marketing practices and societal orientation. Consumer cooperatives as pioneers in marketing practices Consumer cooperatives are behind numerous marketing innovations regarding price, product, distribution or promotion policies. In terms of price, a first idea came directly from the roots of consumer cooperatives. Indeed, first members were workers unable to buy food items made too expensive by the industrialization of France and its effect on the reduction of food-crop production.
    Date: 2019–05
  7. By: Roland, Gerard; Yang, David Y.
    Abstract: Beliefs about whether effort pays off govern some of the most fundamental choices individuals make. This paper uses China’s Cultural Revolution to understand how these beliefs can be affected, how they impact behavior, and how they are transmitted across generations. During the Cultural Revolution, China’s college admission system based on entrance exams was suspended for a decade until 1976, effectively depriving an entire generation of young people of the opportunity to access higher education (the “lost generation”). Using data from a nationally representative survey, we compare cohorts who graduated from high school just before and after the college entrance exam was resumed. We find that members of the “lost generation” who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children’s education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes.
    JEL: Z1 I23 O53 P26 P48
    Date: 2019–07–04
  8. By: Adrian Pagan
    Abstract: The paper provides a short account of the major complete macroeconometric models that have been constructed in Australia. Initially these were by academics but later both the Treasury and Reserve Bank of Australia developed these for policy analysis and forecasting, so that the history focusses a good deal on what was developed in those institutions. The basic strategy of the paper is to set out the modelling themes that were occurring overseas and then to discuss the same variants in Australia. In a number of instances Australian research might be considered to have been well ahead of overseas developments.
    Keywords: Macroeconometric Models, DSGE Models
    JEL: B23 E17 E27
    Date: 2019–07
  9. By: Katrin Assenmacher; Franz Seitz; Jörn Tenhofen
    Abstract: Knowing the part of currency in circulation that is used for transactions is important information for a central bank. For several countries, the share of banknotes that is hoarded or circulates abroad is sizeable, which may be particularly relevant for large-denomination banknotes. We analyse the demand for Swiss banknotes over a period starting in 1950 to 2017 and use different methods to derive the evolution of the amount that is hoarded. Our findings indicate a sizeable amount of hoarding, in particular for large denominations. The hoarding shares increased around the break-up of the Bretton Woods system, were comparatively low in the mid-1990s and have increased significantly since the turn of the millennium and the recent financial and economic crises.
    Keywords: Currency in Circulation, Cash, Demand for Banknotes, Hoarding of Banknotes, Banknotes Held by Non-residents
    JEL: E41 E52
    Date: 2019
  10. By: Rameshsingh M. Chauhan
    Abstract: Teaching English to Speakers of Other Languages – a term that is used to distinguish English language teaching as a professional activity that requires specialized training. Also refers to the teacher examinations developed by Trinity College London. Also, it is a US-based international association of teachers of English as a second or foreign language. There are regional affiliates and many countries have their own affiliated associations. TESOL was founded by Dr. James in Alatis in 1966 he was the first secretary now referred as the Director of TESOL, while the President of TESOL who was professor Harold B Allen. These two set forth an Executive Committee which is now known as TESOL International Association. It was evolved due to the need which arose on the survey of the teaching of English to Non-English speakers in the United States. The report was commissioned by the office ofeducation in 1964. But before this could be considered as a social and cultural need in 60’s, already the need was realized after the world war II in 1940’s as a large number of foreign students had already arrived to matriculate in the US universities. These students were all adult learners, therefore already teachers were drawn from English departments and there was special material developed under the name TEFL Teaching English as a Foreign Language. At this time there also emerged another significant group of English language and this is what gave a rise to TESOL in a different manner which I shall talk about in detail. The name itself TESOL which means teaching English to speakers of other language is such an important subject, as English has become the global language. It allows you to meet people of different countries without hesitation. A person develops himself practically and professionally. It allows the person to apply theoretical prospective to practical situations. It encourages educators to re-evaluate existing approaches in this digital technological world and become an integral part. Over the years, teachers of English Language have adopted, adapted, invented and developed a bewildering variety terms which describe the activities in which they engage and the beliefs which they hold. As such it doesn’t have any specific rules but yet I shall specifically focus on its important language-teaching system, as it has a different approach, method and technique. Key Words: TESOL, English Teaching, Teaching, Foreign Language, Language Teaching Policy
    Date: 2017–09
  11. By: Paliben Lahanubhai Ganvit
    Abstract: Mamta Kalia started her impactful literary writing in years of seventies in last century when the portrait of a woman was confined within words ‘acceptance’ and ‘support’ which were “secure rings in fires”. But today, she is considered among six major contemporary Indian poets in English, viz., Nissim Ezekiel, A.K. Ramanujan, Dom Moraes, Kamala Das, Mamta Kalia and Imtiaz Dharker. These all poets represent various significant aspects of contemporary poetic sensibility and their importance is both intrinsic and historical. This paper analyses Mamta Kalia from a feminist angle. Key Words: Criticism, Feminism, Feminist Movement, Mamta Kalia Policy
    Date: 2017–09
  12. By: Pierre Azoulay; Wesley H. Greenblatt; Misty L. Heggeness
    Abstract: Can a relatively short but intense exposure to frontier research alter the career trajectories of potential innovators? To answer this question, we study the careers and productivity of 3,075 medical school graduates who applied to the Associate Training Programs (ATP) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) during the turbulent period of the Vietnam War, 1965-1975. Carefully selecting on observables, we compare physicians who attended the program to those who passed a first admission screen but were ultimately not selected. We find that program participants were more likely to initially enter academic medicine, and less likely to switch to purely clinical endeavors as their careers unfolded. Over the life cycle, NIH trainees also garnered publications, citations, and grant funding at a much higher rate than synthetic controls. The direction of their research efforts was also durably imprinted by their training experience. In particular, NIH trainees appear to have acquired a distinct "translational'' style of biomedical research which became an implicit training model for physician-scientists as ATP alumni came to occupy the commanding heights of academic medicine throughout the United States.
    JEL: I23 M53 O31
    Date: 2019–07
  13. By: Cristhian Sarango (UTPL - Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja)
    Abstract: The present work has as objective to study the loranisms, from a dúplice perspective: sociolinguistic and anthropological-cultural, in the novel The exodus of Yangana. Therefore, the Lojana culture moves linguistically by the use of lojanismos, which persist in the collective memory: by the daily conversational use of the Lojano speakers and by the literary use of their writers and intellectuals. In a special way, these expressive forms shine in The Exodus of Yangana, an archetypal fictional narrative in the stylistic use of lojanismos, given that this particularity corresponds to a type of realistic literature-manners. Ángel Felicísimo Rojas, through the mouths of his characters, transmits Loja's native speech, reproducing a dialect that highlights the lexical singularities and semantic competences of the inhabitants of the southern region of Ecuador.
    Abstract: El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estudiar los lojanismos, desde una perspectiva dúplice: sociolingüística y antropológico-cultural, en la novela El éxodo de Yangana. Por lo tanto, la cultura lojana se mueve lingüísticamente por el uso de lojanismos, los cuales perviven en la memoria colectiva: por el uso conversacional cotidiano de los hablantes lojanos y por el empleo literario de sus escritores e intelectuales. De manera especial, estas formas expresivas relucen en El éxodo de Yangana, narración novelesca arquetípica en la utilización estilística de lojanismos, dado que tal particularidad corresponde a un tipo de literatura realista-costumbrista. Ángel Felicísimo Rojas, por boca de sus personajes, transmite el habla autóctona lojana, reproduciendo un dialecto que pone de relieve las singularidades lexicales y competencias semánticas de los habitantes de la región austral del Ecuador.
    Date: 2018–11–12
  14. By: Vivekanand Jha
    Abstract: Amitabh Ghosh’s ambitious novel, ‘Sea of Poppies’ is an inaugural volume of his planned Ibis trilogy. The two other novels of this trilogy are River of Smoke (2011) and Flood of Fire (2015). The novel, ‘Sea of Poppies’ is set in India in 1838, on the eve of the Anglo-Chinese opium wars of 1839-43 and 1846-60. It is an apt and concrete commentary on how colonialism damaged and divided Indian society. It paints a poignant portrait of the human devastation and decadence caused by imperialism. To his own confession, it took four years to write Sea of Poppies. The novel was also shortlisted for Britain’s Man Booker Prize. Key Words:characterization, amitav, amitav ghosh, sea of poppies, poppies Policy
    Date: 2017–12
  15. By: Michael T. Belongia; Peter N. Ireland
    Abstract: In the 1920s, Irving Fisher extended his previous work on the Quantity Theory to describe, through an early version of the Phillips Curve, how changes in the money stock could be associated with cyclical movements in output, employment, and inflation. At the same time, Holbrook Working designed a quantitative rule for achieving price stability through control of the money supply. This paper develops a structural vector autoregressive time series model that allows these "classical" channels of monetary transmission to operate alongside the now-more-familiar interest rate channel of the New Keynesian model. Even with Bayesian priors that intentionally favor the New Keynesian view, the United States data produce posterior distributions for the model's key parameters that are consistent with the ideas of Fisher and Working. Changes in real money balances enter importantly into the model's aggregate demand relationship, while growth in Divisia M2 appears in the estimated monetary policy rule. Contractionary monetary policy shocks reveal themselves through persistent declines in nominal money growth instead of rising nominal interest rates and account for important historical movements in output and inflation.
    JEL: B12 E31 E32 E41 E43 E52
    Date: 2019–07
  16. By: Owen Thompson
    Abstract: Large black-white fertility differences are a key feature of US demography, and are closely related to the broader dynamics of US racial inequality. To better understand the origins and determinants of racial fertility differentials, this paper examines fertility patterns in the period surrounding passage and implementation of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which precipitated a period of rapid socioeconomic and political progress among African Americans, with these gains strongly concentrated in the South. I first show that the relative fertility of southern black women precipitously declined immediately after 1964. Specifically, as of 1964 the general fertility rate of southern black women was 53 births greater than the general fertility rate of southern white women, but by 1969 this gap had fallen to 33 births, a decline of approximately 40% in five years. The black-white fertility gap outside of the South was unchanged over this period. Measures of completed childbearing similarly show rapid black-white fertility convergence in the South but not in the North. An analysis of potential mechanisms finds that a substantial share of the observed fertility convergence can be explained by relative improvements in the earnings of southern blacks, and that the historical intensity of slavery and lynching activity are the strongest spacial correlates of fertility convergence
    JEL: J13 J71 J78
    Date: 2019–07
  17. By: Powell, Jerome H. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Date: 2019–07–16
  18. By: Stephan E. Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
    Abstract: This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed market access and influenced the economic geography of the United States. We compute shipment distances with and without the canal from each US county to each other US county and to key international ports and compute the resulting change in market access. We relate this change to population changes in 20-year intervals from 1880 to 2000. We find that a 1 percent increase in market access led to a total increase of population by around 6 percent. We compute similar elasticities for wages, land values and immigration from out of state. When we decompose the effect by industry, we find that tradable (manufacturing) industries react faster than non-tradable (services), with a fairly similar aggregate effect.
    Keywords: market access, Panama Canal, trade shock, gravity
    JEL: F1 R1 O1 N72
    Date: 2019–07
  19. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Kinshasa, The Democratic Republic of Congo)
    Abstract: This article examines the role of cognitive ability or intelligence on slave exports from Africa. We test a hypothesis that countries which were endowed with higher levels of cognitive ability were more likely to experience lower levels of slave exports from Africa probably due to comparatively better capacities to organise, corporate, oversee and confront slave traders. The investigated hypothesis is valid from alternative specifications involving varying conditioning information sets. The findings are also robust to the control of outliers.
    Keywords: Intelligence; Human Capital; Slavery
    JEL: I20 I29 N30
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Kévin Bideaux (LEGS - Laboratoire d'Etudes de Genre et de Sexualité - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre); Guillaume Lebègue (Université de Lille)
    Abstract: Cars are strongly associated with the masculine, while the pink colour is associated with the feminine. By combining these two elements, pink cars articulate differently with gender ideologies, depending on whether they belong to men or women, depending on whether they are shown with men or with women. The gender relations signified by the pink cars must indeed be thought of in their intersectionality with other tie-ins and especially class relations. Through the analysis of several pink car models and different employment contexts, this is to show how the colour and design of an object also articulate with gender.
    Abstract: Les voitures sont fortement associées au masculin, alors que la couleur rose est associée au féminin. En combinant ces deux éléments, les voitures roses s'articulent différemment avec les idéologies de genre, selon qu'elles appartiennent à des hommes ou à des femmes, selon qu'elles sont montrées avec des hommes ou avec des femmes. Les relations de genre que signifient les voitures roses doivent être considérées dans leur intersection avec d'autres liens, notamment les relations de classe. À travers l'analyse de plusieurs modèles de voitures roses et de différents contextes d'emploi, il s'agit de montrer comment la couleur et le design d'un objet s'articulent également avec le genre.
    Keywords: Colour design,history of colours,gender stereotypes,gender marketing,Gender studies,Car / design,pink,stéréotypes de genre,études de genre,Voitures,rose (couleur),Couleurs,Design,marketing,Marketing genré
    Date: 2019–05–23
  21. By: Oludele E. Folarin (University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria)
    Abstract: Nigeria adopted the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 after the crash in world oil price in the early 1980s. Financial reforms are part of the reforms implemented during the SAP. Since, industrialisation is seen as an engine of growth, we conduct an empirical assessment of the effects of financial sector reforms on industrialisation in Nigeria using an annual time series data over 1981 - 2015. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, our findings show that financial reforms have a positive and significant impact on industrialisation.
    Keywords: Financial reforms, Financial repression, Industrialisation, ARDL bounds test
    JEL: C32 E44 O14 O55
    Date: 2019–01
  22. By: Matias Covarrubias; Germán Gutiérrez; Thomas Philippon
    Abstract: We study the evolution of profits, investment and market shares in US industries over the past 40 years. During the 1990’s, and at low levels of initial concentration, we find evidence of efficient con- centration driven by tougher price competition, intangible investment, and increasing productivity of leaders. After 2000, however, the evidence suggests inefficient concentration, decreasing competition and increasing barriers to entry, as leaders become more entrenched and concentration is associated with lower investment, higher prices and lower productivity growth.
    JEL: D24 D4 K0 L0
    Date: 2019–06
  23. By: Brinkman, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Lin, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: Freeway revolts were widespread protests across the U.S. following early urban Interstate construction in the mid-1950s. We present theory and evidence from panel data on neighborhoods and travel behavior to show that diminished quality of life from freeway disamenities inspired the revolts, affected the allocation of freeways within cities, and changed city structure. First, actual freeway construction diverged from initial plans in the wake of the growing freeway revolts and subsequent policy responses, especially in central neighborhoods. Second, freeways caused slower growth in population, income, and land values in central areas, but faster growth in outlying areas. These patterns suggest that in central areas, freeway disamenity effects exceeded small access benefits. Third, in a quantitative general equilibrium spatial model, the aggregate benefits from burying or capping freeways are large and concentrated downtown. This result suggests that targeted mitigation policies could improve welfare and helps explain why opposition to freeways is often observed in central neighborhoods. Disamenities from freeways, versus their commuting benefits, likely played a significant role in the decentralization of U.S. cities.
    Keywords: central cities; amenities; commuting costs; suburbanization; highways
    JEL: N72 N92 O18 Q51 R14 R23 R41 R42
    Date: 2019–07–10
  24. By: Paul Harrenstein; Marie-Louise Lackner; Martin Lackner
    Abstract: We provide a mathematical analysis of an election system proposed by the eminent logician Gottlob Frege (1848--1925). His proposal was written presumably in 1918, was (re)discovered around the turn of the millennium, and published for the first time in the original German in 2000. A remarkable feature of Frege's proposal is its concern for the representation of minorities and its sensitivity to past election results. Frege's proposal is based on some highly original and relevant ideas; his core idea is that the votes of unelected candidates are carried over to the next election. All candidates thus accumulate votes over time and eventually each candidate is elected at some point. We provide a mathematical formulation of Frege's election system and investigate how well it achieves its aim of a fair representation of all political opinions in a community over time. We can prove that this goal is fulfilled remarkably well. However, we also show that, in other aspects, it falls short of Frege's high ambition that no voter's vote be lost. We propose a slight modification of his voting rule, the modified Frege method, that remedies these shortcomings. We analyse both methods from the perspective of modern social choice and apportionment theory, and can show that they are novel contributions with noteworthy proportionality properties over time.
    Date: 2019–07
  25. By: Cirilo Flórez (Universidad de Salamanca)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the change of Unamuno's philosophy from his work Diario Intimo, which is the text where the 1897 crisis is reflected. Unamuno leaves behind his first philosophy, formulated on the "scientific reason" of modernity; and turn into philosophy which sets aside "science" and moves toward "literature." In this new philosophy, autobiography comes to the foreground and writing becomes especially relevant as the tool used by Unamuno to build his destiny as "autoliterary," which, by the way of "literary figures," devises his own identity. In this framework, Diario Intimo, Nicodemo el Fariseo and some letters are analyzed with the aim of establishing the textual differences between diary, letter and conference.
    Abstract: Este artículo analiza el cambio de la filosofía de Unamuno desde su trabajo Diario Intimo, que es el texto donde se refleja la crisis de 1897. Unamuno deja atrás su primera filosofía, formulada sobre la «razón científica» de la modernidad; y se convierte en filosofía que deja a un lado la «ciencia» y se mueve hacia la «literatura». En esta nueva filosofía, la autobiografía llega al primer plano y la escritura se vuelve especialmente relevante como la herramienta utilizada por Unamuno para construir su destino como «autoliterario», que, a propósito de «figuras literarias», diseña su propia identidad. En este marco, se analizan Diario Intimo, Nicodemo el Fariseo y algunas cartas con el objetivo de establecer las diferencias textuales entre diario, carta y conferencia.
    Date: 2018–11–30
  26. By: Apatov, Eyal; Chappell, Nathan; Grimes, Arthur
    Abstract: data on internet access for New Zealand’s 46,637 meshblocks, we examine issues of path dependence and the digital divide. We test whether areas that had the best railway access in the 1880s also have best access to new fibre internet infrastructure. Results suggest strong path dependence with respect to topography: people in areas that lacked 19th century rail due to remoteness or terrain are much less likely to have prioritised fibre access and slightly less likely to have current or (planned) future fibre access. Next, we examine path dependence with respect to ethnicity, given that 19th century railways deliberately avoided predominantly Māori areas. The results suggest weak path dependence: countrywide, Māori are slightly less likely to get fibre access than other New Zealanders, though are slightly more likely to have access within urban areas. Finally, we examine whether the rollout of fibre is increasing or decreasing the digital divide in access between rich and poor. Results show that those in more deprived areas are the most likely to benefit from fibre access, because these areas also tend to be denser and density was a factor in determining the path of the fibre rollout.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession
    Date: 2018–03
  27. By: Christopher Hoag (Department of Economics, Trinity College)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relation between bank liquidity and borrowing from a lender of last resort on a high frequency basis during a financial crisis. The paper evaluates weekly observations of individual bank borrowing of clearinghouse loan certificates by a panel of New York Clearing House member banks during the crisis of 1884. Naturally, banks with higher reserve ratios borrowed lower amounts, but banks replaced a dollar of reserves with less than a dollar of borrowing from a lender of last resort.
    Keywords: banking crisis, lender of last resort, clearinghouse, loan certificates.
    JEL: G21 G28 N21
    Date: 2019–07
  28. By: Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
    Abstract: Compared with China's dominance in world trade, its expanding role in global finance is poorly documented and understood. Over the past decades, China has exported record amounts of capital to the rest of the world. Many of these financial flows are not reported to the IMF, the BIS or the World Bank. "Hidden debts" to China are especially significant for about three dozen developing countries, and distort the risk assessment in both policy surveillance and the market pricing of sovereign debt. We establish the size, destination, and characteristics of China's overseas lending. We identify three key distinguishing features.First, almost all of China's lending and investment abroad is official. As a result, the standard "push" and "pull" drivers of private cross-border flows do not play the same role in this case. Second, the documentation of China's capital exports is (at best) opaque. China does not report on its official lending and there is no comprehensive standardized data on Chinese overseas debt stocks and flows. Third, the type of flows is tailored by recipient. Advanced and higher middle-income countries tend to receive portfolio debt flows, via sovereign bond purchases of the People's Bank of China. Lower income developing economies mostly receive direct loans from China's state-owned banks, often at market rates and backed by collateral such as oil. Our new dataset covers a total of 1,974 Chinese loans and 2,947 Chinese grants to 152 countries from 1949 to 2017. We find that about one half of China's overseas loans to the developing world are "hidden".
    Keywords: China,international capital flows,official finance,hidden debts,sovereign risk,Belt and Road initiative
    JEL: F21 F34 F42 G15 H63 N25
    Date: 2019

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