nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒07‒08
33 papers chosen by

  1. Persistence of entrepreneurship in different historical contexts By Michael Fritsch; Korneliusz Pylak; Michael Wyrwich
  2. High Wages or Wages For Energy? An Alternative View of The British Case (1645-1700) By José L. Martínez González
  3. The introduction of social pensions and elderly mortality: Evidence 1870-1939 By Jäger, Philipp
  4. From finance to fascism: The real effect of Germany's 1931 banking crisis By Doerr, Sebastian; Gissler, Stefan; Peydró, José-Luis; Voth, Hans-Joachim
  5. Interpolation of Japan's Household Consumption during World War II By Ryoji Koike
  6. Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period By David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
  7. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates for Europe, 1870-2016: Some methodological issues By Ljungberg, Jonas
  8. Fertility and Modernity By Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg
  9. Revisting Allen's nitrogen hyphotesis from a climate perspective (1645-1740) By José L. Martínez-González; Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia
  10. Methodology of the search for “historical Jesus”: background, current position and scientific perspectives By Desnitskiy, Andrey (Десницкий, Андрей); Seleznev, Mikhail (Селезнев, Михаил)
  11. Sharp mindedness in the English Renaissance Sonnet By Shaytanov, Igor (Шайтанов, Игорь)
  12. The Development of Modern Agricultural History within Economic History in Spain By Iñaki Iriarte Goñi; Vicente Pinilla
  13. A Time to Print; a Time to Reform By Boerner, Lars; Rubin, Jared; Severgnini, Battista
  14. Sex ratios and missing girls in late-19th-century Europe By Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia
  15. Ghana's new national income data series: follow-up to M Huq and M Tribe's - The economy of Ghana: 50 years of economic development (Palgrave Macmillan, 2018) By Michael Tribe; Mozammel Huq
  17. Hermeneutic possibilities of the myth-ritual systems of the peoples of Siberia and the challenges of time (using the Nganasans as an example) By Khristoforova, Olga (Христофорова, Ольга)
  18. Information wars and the problem of the “Russian threat” as a phenomenon of European politics of the 19th century By Tanshina, Natalia (Таньшина, Наталия)
  19. The problem of the relationship between past and present in modern theories of historical and social time By Oleynikov, Andrey (Олейников, Андрей); Kobylin, Igor (Кобылин, Игорь)
  20. Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Monetary and Financial Policy By Bordo, Michael D.; Prescott, Edward Simpson
  21. Movement and death: Illicit drug markets in the cities of São Paulo and Rio De Janeiro By Veloso Hirata, Daniel; Cristoph Grillo, Carolina
  22. Time for Growth By Severgnini, Battista; Boerner, Lars
  23. Divering Historical development of migration in Southeastern Europe since 1950 By Attila Melegh
  24. The Industrial Revolution in Services By Chang-Tai Hsieh; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
  25. International Financial Credit Crises; Lessons from Canada By Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa
  26. Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? By Qazi Haque; Nicolas Groshenny; Mark Weder
  27. Pioneers: the PCC and specialization in the market of major robberies By Perla Diógenes de Aquino, Jania
  28. Patterns of specialisation and economic complexity through the lens of universal exhibitions, 1855-1900 By Giacomo Domini
  29. Economic Geography Aspects of the Panama Canal By Stephan Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
  30. The determination of the money supply: flexibility versus control By Goodhart, C. A. E.
  31. Globalization and small businesses By Hirasawa, Katsuhiko
  32. Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions? By Stergios Skaperdas; Samarth Vaidya
  33. On the effects of sanctions on trade and welfare: New evidence based on structural gravity and a new database By Felbermayr, Gabriel; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yalcin, Erdal; Yotov, Yoto V.

  1. By: Michael Fritsch; Korneliusz Pylak; Michael Wyrwich
    Abstract: Persistence of entrepreneurship over longer periods of time could indicate a culture of entrepreneurship among the local population that may be an important factor for regional development, but does persistence of economic activity require cultural transmission? We exploit the diverse historical developments in the territory that is Poland today to analyze the level and the sources of persistence from the 1920s until today. Persistence is mainly found in those regions that were part of Germany before World War II. This persistence is noticeable despite the exchange of most of the pre- war population, ruling out that persistence is driven by transmission of culture. In most regions that were already part of Poland before World War II, the relationship between historical and current levels of entrepreneurship is not significant. Persistence of entrepreneurship is related to the historical success of regions, which we capture by the pre-war level of and self- employment in manufacturing industries, particularly in those that can be regarded as knowledge intensive. Our main conclusion is that persistence of entrepreneurship requires a certain level of successful economic development that we capture by the degree of industrialization in the early 20th century, but it does not necessarily require persistence of the local population.
    Keywords: Persistence, entrepreneurship, self-employment
    JEL: L26 M13 O1 O18 R11
    Date: 2019–06
  2. By: José L. Martínez González (University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper provides a long run view of human development as a capabilities measure of well-being for the last one-and-a-half centuries on the basis of an augmented historical human development index [AHHDI] that combines achievements in health, education, living standard, plus liberal democracy, and provides an alternative to the UN Human Development Index, HDI. The AHHDI shows substantial gains in world human development since 1870, especially during 1913-1970, but much room for improvement exists. Life expectancy has been the leading force behind its progress, especially until 1970. Human development spread unevenly. The absolute gap between western Europe and its offshoots plus Japan -the OECD- and the Rest of the world deepened over time, though fell in relative terms, with catching-up driven by longevity during the epidemiological transition and by democratization thereafter. This result compares favourably with the growing income gap. Economic growth and human development do not always go hand-in-hand.
    Keywords: Energy, physical activity, subsistence wages, incomes, wage gap, Malthusian trap, Seventeenth Century, England
    JEL: B11 J30 N13 N33 N53 N73 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2019–06
  3. By: Jäger, Philipp
    Abstract: The strong association between income and mortality raises the question whether more generous social security systems could improve poor people's health outcomes. Thus, in this paper, I analyze whether a major social security innovation, the introduction of social pensions targeted at poor elderly people in the late 19th-early 20th century, has reduced mortality rates of senior citizens. Therefore, I use a cross-country dataset spanning from 1870 to 1939 consisting of 13 countries of which 9 eventually implemented social pensions before World War II. Applying a difference-in-difference-in-difference as well as a regression discontinuity design, I find no evidence for a decline in elderly mortality due to the introduction of social pensions. Based on aggregate census data, I argue that social pensions have reduced elderly labor supply. The reduction is much smaller than social pension recipiency rates, though. These findings suggest that social pensions have raised elderly incomes which, however, did not translate into lower mortality.
    Keywords: pension,social security,elderly mortality
    JEL: H55 I18
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Doerr, Sebastian; Gissler, Stefan; Peydró, José-Luis; Voth, Hans-Joachim
    Abstract: Do financial crises radicalize voters? We analyze a canonical case - Germany during the Great Depression. After a severe banking crisis in 1931, caused by foreign shocks and political inaction, radical voting increased sharply in the following year. Democracy collapsed six months later. We collect new data on pre-crisis bank-firm connections and show that banking distress led to markedly more radical voting, both through economic and non-economic channels. Firms linked to two large banks that failed experienced a bank-driven fall in lending, which caused reductions in their wage bill and a fall in city-level incomes. This in turn increased Nazi Party support between 1930 and 1932/33, especially in cities with a history of anti-Semitism. While both failing banks had a large negative economic impact, only exposure to the bank led by a Jewish chairman strongly predicts Nazi voting. Local exposure to the banking crisis simultaneously led to a decline in Jewish-gentile marriages and is associated with more deportations and attacks on synagogues after 1933.
    JEL: E44 G01 G21 N20 P16
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Ryoji Koike (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
    Abstract: This paper reconstructs a comparable series of Japan's household consumption in the 1940s, using historical records about household outlays and black-market transactions, and interpolating missing values in the existing statistics. Specifically, nominal outlays of urban and farm households are estimated, and then converted into real outlays by effective price indexes containing black-market transactions. Household outlay per capita is then computed by taking the average of urban and farm household outlays using population shares as weights. Real outlay in 1945 is estimated at a little less than 50 percent compared to that in 1940, although statistics are missing for 1945. Even considering alternative estimates using other records, real outlay in 1945 is a little more than 50 percent compared to that in 1940. Thus, it is concluded that Japan's household consumption in 1945 declined to the level in 1875-1880.
    Keywords: Household survey, Black-market prices, Effective prices, In- kind outlay, World War II
    JEL: N35 Y10 D19 E21
    Date: 2019–06
  6. By: David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
    Abstract: What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs.
    Keywords: Commonwealth, distance, gravity, interwar period, trade blocs, trade wars
    JEL: F10 F30 N70
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Ljungberg, Jonas (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper presents and discusses a new database on nominal and real effective exchange rates for an extensive range of European countries spanning 1870-2016. Indeed, with the exception of a few countries, such long run historical series have not been previously constructed. To gage the validity of these series, comparisons with the BIS and IMF indices are conducted. In addition to stretching further back in time, it is shown that the new indices are more consistent and transparent in construction, even over the recent period. Limitations of the new series, relating to both some underlying data and the index problem are considered. Supplementary to the effective exchange rate indices, is a collection of cost of living or CPI indices 1870-1990, which are based on a critical survey in this paper of those indices which are widely used and abused.
    Keywords: effective exchange rates; Europe; index problem; CPI
    JEL: E31 F31 N13 N14
    Date: 2019–06–27
  8. By: Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of the fertility decline in Europe from 1830 to 1970 using a newly constructed dataset of linguistic distances between European regions. We find that the fertility decline resulted from a gradual diffusion of new fertility behavior from French-speaking regions to the rest of Europe. We observe that societies with higher education, lower infant mortality, higher urbanization, and higher population density had lower levels of fertility during the 19th and early 20th century. However, the fertility decline took place earlier and was initially larger in communities that were culturally closer to the French, while the fertility transition spread only later to societies that were more distant from the cultural frontier. This is consistent with a process of social influence, whereby societies that were linguistically and culturally closer to the French faced lower barriers to the adoption of new social norms and attitudes towards fertility control.
    JEL: J13 N13 O40
    Date: 2019–06
  9. By: José L. Martínez-González; Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia
    Abstract: Building on Allen’s Nytrogen Hypothesis, this paper assesses the role of climate change in the English Agricultural Revolution. Our results show that, while Nitrogen-fixing plants, better cultivation and improved seeds explain half of the variation in yields, the changing climatic conditions characterizing the cooling period (1645-1715) and the subsequent warmer phase account for the remaining variation. Given that the colder and more humid climate existing during the second half of the 17th-century and early 18th-century negatively affected yields, farmers’ efforts during this period were even higher than what it is implied by the observed yields. Increasing temperatures in the next phase (starting c.1715), however, had a positive effect on agricultural productivity, so the role of the farmers in this stage has been previously over-rated.
    Keywords: Agricultural Revolution, England, climate, Seventeenth century
    JEL: N53 O13 Q10 Q54 Q55 Q57
    Date: 2019–06
  10. By: Desnitskiy, Andrey (Десницкий, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Seleznev, Mikhail (Селезнев, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The main object of this work is the direction of scientific biblical studies, which in Western historiography was called the “search for historical Jesus” (English Quest for the historical Jesus): history, methodology and key issues. “The Search for the Historical Jesus” is a reconstruction of the life of the historical Jesus of Nazareth based on the most ancient sources (New Testament texts, ancient apocrypha, testimonies of ancient Roman authors, rabbinic texts, etc.). Researchers use a scientific methodology distancing themselves from their religious and religious beliefs. The life of Jesus is reconstructed as the life of other historical persons is reconstructed (Moses, Gautama Buddha, Socrates, or Abraham Lincoln).
    Date: 2019–06
  11. By: Shaytanov, Igor (Шайтанов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In terms of the whole project “Translation of the Renaissance Sonnet as a Comparative Problem”, the work done in June-December 2018 presents a detailed study of one of the most important (along with metaphorical and reflection) aspects that ensure the untranslatability of the Shakespeare's sonnet, which represents the most important cultural characteristic of the era - wittiness / sharp mindedness. This difficulty was faced by the Russian translators who were far from fully satisfied. Examples are from Philip Sidney's sonnets, but mostly from the Shakespeare collection. Among the theoretical problems of poetics solved in this text is the problem of the parodicity of the tendency that has received its name in the history of literature - antipetrarchism. The noncomical function of the game with the Petrarch convention demonstrates wittiness in action, playing an evolutionary role in the history of the sonnet form and in the formation of the modern mentality.
    Date: 2019–06
  12. By: Iñaki Iriarte Goñi (Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, Spain); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, Spain)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the evolution of modern agricultural history in Spain within the framework of the development of the discipline of economic history. This analysis is divided into five thematic parts: production, productivity and technical change; the international insertion of Spanish agriculture; the institutional framework; long-term visions; and finally, recent developments and some deficits. It is interesting to emphasize that research on agricultural economic history in Spain has been carried out adopting methodologies, questions and developments similar to those of researchers from other advanced countries. Spanish agricultural economic history is one of the most powerful in the international context.
    Keywords: Economic History, Agricultural History
    JEL: N01 N50 Q10
    Date: 2019–06
  13. By: Boerner, Lars; Rubin, Jared; Severgnini, Battista (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: The public mechanical clock and the movable type printing press were two of the most important and complex general purpose technologies of the late medieval period. We document two of their most important, yet unforeseeable, consequences. First, an instrumental variables analysis indicates that towns that were early adopters of clocks were more likely to also be early adopters of presses. We posit that towns with clocks became upper-tail human capital hubs—both technologies required extensive technical know-how that had many points of overlap. Second, a three-stage instrumental variables analysis indicates that the press influenced the adoption of Lutheranism and Calvinism, while the clock’s effect on the Reformation was indirect (via the press).
    Keywords: mechanical clock; printing press; technology; Reformation; human capital; Calvinism; Lutheranism; instrumental variables
    JEL: N33 N73 O33 O34 P48 Z12
    Date: 2019–03–01
  14. By: Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia (Department of Historical Studies, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: This paper reconstructs infant and child sex ratios, the number of boys per hundred girls, in Europe circa 1880. Contrary to previous interpretations arguing that there is little evidence of gender discrimination resulting in excess female mortality in infancy and childhood, the results suggest that this issue was much more important than previously thought, especially in Southern Europe. The unbalanced sex ratios observed in some regions are not due to random noise, female miss-reporting or sex-specific migration. Likewise, although geography, climate and population density influenced sex ratios, these factors cannot explain away the patterns of gender discrimination reported here. The actual nature of discrimination, either female infanticide, the abandonment of young girls and/or the unequal allocation of resources within families, however, remains unclear and surely varied by region.
    Keywords: Sex ratios, Infant and child mortality, Gender discrimination, Health
    JEL: I14 I15 J13 J16 N33
    Date: 2019–06
  15. By: Michael Tribe (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Mozammel Huq (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: This paper follows from the publication of our jointly authored book on the Ghanaian economy which was published in September 2018 (Huq and Tribe, 2018). This volume contains an extensive database which provides consistent series for most of the major macroeconomic features of the economy from 1960 to 2015. However, later in September 2018 the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) published a significant update of the national income statistics (GSS, 2018a) and in this paper we aim to explore some of the implications of this update. As originally published, the new national income data do not permit a direct comparison of the old and new series at constant prices of the same year, and the paper contains estimates which contribute to covering this omission. The calculations using the new data series also provide estimates for constant price data which demonstrate the structural changes reported by the GSS publications in more detail than was contained within the official data release. Using a range of new data sources (including the Integrated Business Enterprise Survey – GSS, 2017b – and the Labour Force Survey – GSS, 2016) within the 2008 edition of the United Nations System of National Accounts (UN, 2008) the new national income series includes an upwards shift of approximately 30 per cent in GDP, and new estimates of manufacturing value added which amount to an increase of approximately 350 per cent. Statistical comparability of the new GDP series, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa, is an area which will need further consideration.
    Keywords: Economic Development; Macroeconomic Analyses; Formal and Informal Sectors; Development Planning and Policy; Institutions and Growth; Economic Statistics; Sub-Saharan Africa – Ghana
    JEL: O1 O11 O17 O2 O20 O55
    Date: 2019–06
  16. By: Arthur Mustafin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article is devoted to a reconstruction of Soviet discussions on long cycles based on an analysis of a wide range of unknown and little-known historiographical sources and archival materials. The role of discussions in the formation of assessments and ideas about long cycles is shown. In particular, we show that the controversy between Kondratiev and Gosplan about the economic development of the USSR had a noticeable effect on the negative evaluation of Kondratiev’s method for identifying long cycles. The study defines the relations between Kondratiev’s views on the problem of long cycles and his probabilistic-statistical approach to the analysis of society.
    Keywords: long waves, Kondratiev cycles, pre-industrial economy, grain prices, time series analysis.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2019
  17. By: Khristoforova, Olga (Христофорова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The Nganasans (outdated Samoyeds, Tavgiians) are a small indigenous people who live on the Taimyr Peninsula in the north of Siberia (according to the 2010 All-Russian Census, there are 862 people). The Nganasans are the heirs of the Paleolithic aborigines of the Arctic, assimilated by Samoyedians. They traditionally led the nomadic way of life of Arctic hunters and lived relatively independently of the state, until in the 1950s and 1960s they were resettled by the Soviet authorities to the villages (Ust-Avam, Volochanka, Novaya) located to the south of their traditional residence. The Nganasans adhered to shamanistic beliefs and practices that did not experience serious influence from the Russian and later Soviet states due to the remoteness of the territory of residence of this people. After the death of the last two Nganasan shamans, representatives of the shamanic dynasty of the Ngamtusuo (Kosterkin) family, brothers Demnime (1913-1980) and Tubyaku (1921-1989), the Nganasan shamanic tradition was cut short. Nowadays, shamanic chants can be heard only in the performance of folklore groups (“folklore on the stage”). Why did this happen? Perhaps the reason is the influence of Russian culture, language and cultural assimilation? Or in the fight against religion in the Soviet era? The author believes that the reasons for the disappearance of Nganasan shamanism and the traditional culture in general are several reasons, the main one being the change in the type of economic and lifestyle that occurred after the mass transfer of Nganasans to settled life in the 1950s and 1960s.
    Keywords: peoples of Siberia, nganasans, arctic hunters, shamanism, folklore, transformation of traditional culture in the process of modernization
    Date: 2019–06
  18. By: Tanshina, Natalia (Таньшина, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The work examines a set of issues related to the perception of Russia and Russians in France’s public opinion and to such phenomena as “Informational Wars” (or "Journalistic Wars", as they were called in the nineteenth century), "the Russian threat" and Russophobia - on the example of the relations between Russia and France in the Post-Napoleonic era and on the background of the international relations system of that time. The study of these issues has undoubted scientific and practical relevance.
    Date: 2019–06
  19. By: Oleynikov, Andrey (Олейников, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kobylin, Igor (Кобылин, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The current theorists of history find a very productive non-linear historical model of time, one of the variants of which is the concept of the “modern non-modern”, formulated for the first time by E. Bloch and later developed in the works of R. Kozellek. The advantages of this model are as follows: (1) it helps to make sure in the political and cultural nature of the difference between the past and the present; (2) allows us not to identify the present with modernity, but to understand modernity as the disjunctive unity of various historical times and temporal regimes.
    Date: 2019–06
  20. By: Bordo, Michael D. (Rutgers University); Prescott, Edward Simpson (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
    Abstract: The decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System is evaluated as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on monetary and financial policy. The role of the Reserve Banks starting in the 1960s is emphasized. The introduction of monetarism in the 1960s, rational expectations in the 1970s, credibility in the 1980s, transparency, and other monetary policy ideas by Reserve Banks into the Federal Reserve System is documented. Contributions by Reserve Banks to policy on bank structure, bank regulation, and lender of last resort are also discussed. We argue that the Reserve Banks were willing to support and develop new ideas due to internal reforms to the FOMC that Chairman William McChesney Martin implemented in the 1950s. Furthermore, the Reserve Banks were able to succeed at this because of their private-public governance structure, a structure set up in 1913 for a highly decentralized Federal Reserve System, but which survived the centralization of the System in the Banking Act of 1935. We argue that this role of the Reserve Banks is an important benefit of the Federal Reserve’s decentralized structure and contributes to better policy by allowing for more competition in ideas and reducing groupthink.
    Keywords: Federal Reserve System; monetary policy; financial regulation; governance;
    JEL: B0 E58 G28 H1
    Date: 2019–06–21
  21. By: Veloso Hirata, Daniel; Cristoph Grillo, Carolina
    Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between violence and the illicit drug market by comparing retail drug trade in the favelas and peripheral neighborhoods of the cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. To do so, we carried out ethnographical field work in both cities and a literature review on the topic. Considering illegal markets and forces of order in charge of suppressing them as part of one single object of study, this article explores the mechanics of the relationship between drug trafficking and the police and how it governs the lives and deaths of the poor population in those cities. Rio and São Paulo showcase different scenarios in terms of how the drug trade is structured and practiced: Whereas Rio de Janeiro lives in a state of ‘war’ due to the disputes among rival drug factions and with the police (who is thus more lethal), São Paulo is believed to live ‘at peace’, as trafficking is controlled by one single comando and the city showcases higher incarceration rates. We shall argue that such differences also influence the way the retail drug market operates in each city. This comparison focuses on the intersection of three dimensions: The marketplaces of drug retail sales; the dynamics of criminal collectives; and the different power dynamics among drug dealers and forces of order.
    Keywords: Drug traffic; Violence; São Paulo; Rio de Janeiro
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–06–04
  22. By: Severgnini, Battista (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Boerner, Lars
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the early adoption of one of the most important high-technology machines in history, the public mechanical clock, on long-run growth in Europe. We avoid endogeneity by considering the relationship between the adoption of clocks with an instrument based on the appearance of repeated solar eclipses. This is motivated by the predecessor technologies of mechanical clocks, astronomic instruments that measured the course of heavenly bodies. We find a significant increase in growth rates between 1500 and 1700 in the range of 30 percentage points in early adopter cities and areas. Finally, additional quantitative analysis suggests a positive relationship between mechanical clocks and contemporary long-term orientation nowadays.
    Keywords: technological adoption; cities; mechanical clocks; information technology; long-term orientation
    JEL: N13 N93 O33
    Date: 2019–03–28
  23. By: Attila Melegh (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute)
    Abstract: In the beginning of the period under discussion each of the countries in the region was either following European patterns of emigration or was actually serving as a migratory target (for instance in the case of Moldova). In the 1970s and 1980s (in other words well before the actual collapse of state socialism) diverging patterns began to emerge the differences between which became acute after the collapse. Some of the sub-regions (the Balkans and the region around the Black Sea within the Soviet Union) actually became sources of migrants, while others, most notably Italy and Austria became destination countries of larger number of migrants. This is a distinctive story of the construction of inner dependency within a larger region the countries of which had a great deal in common, and this process needs to be analyzed with particular care. Thus smaller meaningful historical, geographic regions can be constructed on the basis of migratory patterns. These regions do not follow the “classic” divisions, and the state socialist and capitalist local histories are related to one another, regardless of divergences. State socialism was not isolated from global flows, and, more importantly, it partially reproduced global hierarchies and had its own effects on international migration. In a modified form, the world system approach is helpful in furthering an understanding of longer term developmental patterns. In the case of state socialist economies, the direct intervention of world capitalism had a longlasting impact on the migratory links between the countries within the region under discussion. Actually, most of the former state socialist countries in the region became dependent on remittances, as shown by Böröcz (Böröcz 2012). When state socialism collapsed in the late 1980s, the economies of the countries of the region were based on a huge industrial sector. Countries that were unable to counterbalance the collapse of local industry became sending countries and were partially re-ruralized and partially pushed into large scale emigration. Thus the break-up of socialism also did not have a uniform impact on the countries in question, and the impact also depended on historical developmental hierarchies and the related ability of the various countries to regain some of the losses in the industrial sector with gains in the service sector. The analysis offered here lends credence to the neoclassic macroeconomic theory of migration, but following Böröcz and de Haas I argue that its validity with regard to per capita GDP differentials is strengthened if it is linked to positions in global hierarchies (Böröcz 2009; de Haas 2010). It thus needs to be re-contextualized into a world system approach. The key point is that it is not simply GDP differentials that matter, but rather relative positions within the global economy, which themselves are in part the results historical processes and linkages. In other words, one needs to go back to the theories of global structural changes, which is the subject matter of global history and the literature on development. In addition, I have also argued that global hierarchies and the positions of a given country in these hierarchies may well be fairly accurately perceived by the local and migrant populations. It seems that a more direct link can be found between global structures and behaviors in the perception of global hierarchies. People seem to have ideas of developmental scales that can very clearly linked to actual per capita GDP figures. Thus people might well be aware of global inequalities and may even have clear ideas of complex sequences that might also orientate them in their decisions regarding migration. This hypothesis, however, merits further research, especially from the perspective of how positions in global hierarchies are perceived by people considering emigration.
    JEL: B24
  24. By: Chang-Tai Hsieh; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
    Abstract: The rise in national industry concentration in the US between 1977 and 2013 is driven by a new industrial revolution in three broad non-traded sectors: services, retail, and wholesale. Sectors where national concentration is rising have increased their share of employment, and the expansion is entirely driven by the number of local markets served by firms. Firm employment per market has either increased slightly at the MSA level, or decreased substantially at the county or establishment levels. In industries with increasing concentration, the expansion into more markets is more pronounced for the top 10% firms, but is present for the bottom 90% as well. These trends have not been accompanied by economy-wide concentration. Top U.S. firms are increasingly specialized in sectors with rising industry concentration, but their aggregate employment share has remained roughly stable. We argue that these facts are consistent with the availability of a new set of fixed-cost technologies that enable adopters to produce at lower marginal costs in all markets. We present a simple model of firm size and market entry to describe the menu of new technologies and trace its implications.
    JEL: E23 E24 L11 L22 L25 R11 R12
    Date: 2019–06
  25. By: Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa
    Abstract: The credit crises experienced in the US in year 2008 is labeled as perhaps the most significant crises since the great depression. The roots of the crises were found in the default of the sub-prime mortgages and the failure occurred in both the US and the UK. Due to the integrated nature of international financial systems the spillover impacted many countries as the economies in Asia and Europe were purchasers of the sub-prime mortgages that originated in both UK and US. The impact of the credit crises in Canada is of unique importance due to the close proximity to US, and both the US and Canada being of great strategic importance to each other as well as one of the largest trading partners. Even though the international financial credit crises adversely impacted many countries, the evidence that has come across recent years point towards the conclusion that Canada was able to weather the crises much better than many other countries.
    Keywords: Banking System, Canada, Country Study, Financial Credit Crises, MNC’s, Regulations
    JEL: F23 N12 N22 N32 N42 O51
    Date: 2019–06–19
  26. By: Qazi Haque (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and The University of Western Australia); Nicolas Groshenny (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and The University of Adelaide); Mark Weder (Aarhus University and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis)
    Abstract: The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserves monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage-rigidity and finds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to inflation but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era.
    Date: 2019
  27. By: Perla Diógenes de Aquino, Jania
    Abstract: Having studied sociality among robbers, mainly the pioneers of the PCC [Primeiro Comando da Capital, or First Command of the Capital], in Brazil, I argue individual entrepreneurship, contrary to popular belief, provides the foundation for major robberies of banks and other financial institutions in Brazil. Based on 18 years of research on robberies and robbers in Brazil, this paper explores the specialization of an illegal market, thus breaking, on the one hand, with the idea of “urban violence” as a lack of rules, civility and modernity, and, on the other hand, with pure economism. By establishing a dialogue with the Brazilian ethnographic literature on the crime universe, it examines how the PCC is strengthened even though its members are fiercely independent and work on the basis of short-term projects.
    Keywords: major thefts; financial institutions; PCC; robbery
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2019–06–04
  28. By: Giacomo Domini
    Abstract: This paper reconstructs Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) and Economic Complexity Indices (ECI) for a large number of countries in the second half of the 19th century, by using data from the catalogues of five universal exhibitions held in Paris in 1855, 1867, 1878, 1889, and 1900. This allows overcoming the lack of finely product-disaggregated comparative export data, on which such indices are typically constructed. The analysis of exhibition-based RCAs and ECIs reveals structural change and development processes experienced by countries during those decades, pointing out the relevance of countries' productive structures for long-run growth.
    Keywords: patterns of specialisation; revealed comparative advantage; economic complexity; universal exhibitions.
    Date: 2019–06–29
  29. By: Stephan Maurer (University of Konstanz and CEP); Ferdinand Rauch (University of Oxford, CEP and CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed market access and influenced the economic geography of the United States. We compute shipment distances with and without the canal from each US county to each other US county and to key international ports and compute the resulting change in market access. We relate this change to population changes in 20-year intervals from 1880 to 2000. We find that a 1 percent increase in market access led to a total increase of population by around 6 percent. We compute similar elasticities for wages, land values and immigration from out of state. When we decompose the e ect by industry, we find that tradable (manufacturing) industries react faster than non-tradable (services), with a fairly similar aggregate e ect.
    Keywords: Market access; Panama Canal; trade shock; gravity
    JEL: F1 R1 O1 N72
    Date: 2019–06–26
  30. By: Goodhart, C. A. E.
    Abstract: During the last two centuries there have been four main approaches to analysing the determination of the money supply, to wit: (1) Deposits cause Loans, (2) The Monetary Base Multiplier, (3) The Credit Counterparts Approach and (4) Loans cause Deposits. All four approaches are criticized, especially (2) which used to be the standard academic model, and (4) which is now taking over as the consensus approach. Instead, I argue that banking is a service industry, which sets the terms and conditions whereby the private sector can create additional money for itself. The problem is that such money creation tends to be highly procyclical, so the question then becomes finding the best trade-off between official control of that process and allowing sufficient flexibility for the private sector. I conclude by reviewing how Lord King's reform proposals, in his book on The End of Alchemy, might fit into this broader analysis.
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2017–09
  31. By: Hirasawa, Katsuhiko
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine what kind of impact neo - liberalisti c globali za- tion has on small businesses in Japan. First, we review the background of neo - liberal- istic globalization. It can truly be said that globalization not only results in the overseas development of goods and capital, it is also closely linked to new li beralism and dereg- ulation . Then we examine how small businesses in Japan have changed. It may be true that the existence of small businesses, which had been built in a self - sufficient manner within Japan, was reorganized in a wider East Asian region, we should not overlook that the advancement of globalization has changed the struc ture of small businesses established in Japan. Thus, we clarify the impact of neo - liberalistic global- ization on small busi ne sses. As can be shown more than 1 - million small businesses closed or went bankrupt in 15 years, during which globalization gained ground. Whereas the overseas expansion of the econ omy had an impac t on the national econ- omy, globalization today progresses via fierce competition based on neo - liberalism in the background of the declines in the rates of profit and the amounts of profit of Amer- ican big businesses. This neo - liberalistic globalization caus es the industry structure of each country to be reor ganized, and it causes the sustainment of small businesses to fail.
    Keywords: Globalization,SME,Japan
    Date: 2019
  32. By: Stergios Skaperdas (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine); Samarth Vaidya (Department of Economics, Deakin Business School, Deakin University)
    Abstract: Over the past two millennia successful pre-modern states in Eurasia adopted and cultivated Big-God religions that emphasize (i) the ruler's legitimacy as divinely ordained and (ii) a morality adapted for large-scale societies that can have positive economic effects. We make sense of this development by building on previous research that has conceptualized pre-modern states as maximizing the ruler’s profit. We model the interaction of rulers and subjects who have both material and psychological payoffs, the latter emanating from religious identity. Overall, religion reduces the cost of controlling subjects through the threat of violence, increases production, increases tax revenue, and reduces banditry. A Big-God ruler, who is also a believer, has greater incentives to invest in expanding the number of believers and the intensity of belief, as well as investing in state capacity. Furthermore, such investments are often complementary, mutually reinforcing one another, thus leading to an evolutionary advantage of rulers that adopted Big-God religions.
    Keywords: State; Ruler; Anarchy; Religion; Morality; Legitimacy; State capacity
    JEL: D70 H0 N40 P40 Z1
    Date: 2019–06
  33. By: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yalcin, Erdal; Yotov, Yoto V.
    Abstract: Using a new, global data base covering the years 1950 to 2015, we study the impact of sanctions on international trade and welfare. We make use of the rich dimensionality of our data and of the latest developments in the structural gravity literature. Starting with a broad evaluation by sanction type, we carefully investigate the case of Iran. Effects are significant but also widely heterogeneous across sanctioning countries. Moreover, they depend on the direction of trade. We also perform a counterfactual analysis which translates our partial equilibrium sanction estimates into heterogeneous but intuitive general equilibrium effects within the same framework.
    Keywords: Sanctions,Effectiveness of Sanctions,Structural Gravity
    JEL: F1 F13 F14 F5 F51 H5 N4
    Date: 2019

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.