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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2019‒06‒24
forty-nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Pawel Bukowski; Filip Novokmet |
| Abstract: | How has Polish inequality evolved between communism and capitalism to reach one of the highest levels in Europe today? To address this question, we construct the first series on the long-term distribution of income in Poland by combining tax, household survey and national accounts data. We document a U-shaped evolution of inequalities from the end of the 19th century until today: (i) inequality was high before WWII; (ii) abruptly fell after the introduction of communism in 1947 and stagnated at low levels during the whole communist period; (iii) experienced a sharp rise with the return to capitalism in 1989. Between 1989 and 2015 the top 10% income share increased from 23% to 35% and the top 1% income share from 4% to 13%. Frequently quoted Poland's transition success has largely benefited top income groups. We find that inequality was high in the first half of the 20th century due to strong concentration of capital income at the top of the distribution. The secular fall after WW2 was largely to a combination of capital income shocks from war destructions with communist policies both eliminating private ownership and forcing wage compression. The rise of inequality after the return to capitalism in the early 1990s was induced both by the rise of top labour and capital incomes. We attribute this to labour market liberalisation and privatisation. However, the strong rise in inequality in the 2000s was driven solely by the increase in top capital incomes, which is likely related to current globalization forces. Yet overall, the unique Polish inequality history speaks about the central role of policies and institutions in shaping inequality in the long run. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, transformation, Poland |
| JEL: | D31 E01 J3 N34 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1628&r=all |
| By: | Horrell, Sara (University of Cambridge); Humphries, Jane (University of Oxford); Weisdorf, Jacob (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | We utilise wage series for men, women and children to construct a long-run measure of family welfare in England, 1280-1850. We make adjustment for the participation rates of women and children, the varying number of days supplied to the labour market over time, the changing involvement of married women in paid work, and the evolving occupational structure of the economy. The resultant series is the first to depict the long run material experience of a representative, working family. Our family existed just above bare bones survival prior to the Black Death, but, as attested elsewhere, shortage of labour after the plague brought substantial gains. However, these gains were not unassailable. Restrictions on women’s work and Tudor turmoil pushed the family below the ‘respectable’ level previously achieved. Transformation of the economy from the mid-1600s onwards coincided with improved welfare. While the position of the representative family tracked the trajectory of GDP per capita through the early modern and industrial revolution periods, this was only achieved by shifting contributions from different family members. Our paper provides an account of long run material wellbeing on a more satisfactory basis than historians have achieved hitherto, not focussed on men alone nor on marginalised women and children, but on realistically constructed historical families. |
| Keywords: | Living standards, Work and wages, Britain, long-run JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:419&r=all |
| By: | Gregori Galofré-Vilà (University of Bocconi) |
| Abstract: | During the interwar years, Japanese industrialisation accelerated alongside the expansion of industrial exports to regional markets. Trade blocs in the interwar years were used as an instrument of imperial power to foster exports and as a substitute for productivity to encourage industrial production. The historiography on Japanese industrialisation in the interwar years describes heavy industries’ interests in obtaining access to wider markets to increase economies of scale and reduce unit costs. However, this literature provides no quantitative evidence that proves the success of those mechanisms in expanding exports. In this paper we scrutinise how Japan—a relatively poor country—used colonial as well as informal power interventions to expand regional markets for its exports, especially for the most intensive human capital sector of the industrializing economy. |
| Keywords: | Cliometrics, Economic History, Systematic Review, Network Analysis |
| JEL: | A14 N00 N01 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0154&r=all |
| By: | Ayres, Joao; Garcia, Marcio; Guillen, Diogo; Kehoe, Patrick J. |
| Abstract: | Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960–1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995–2016) was characterized by improvements in all of these features, but it did not lead to significant improvements in economic growth. In addition, we document a strong positive correlation between inflation rates and seigniorage revenues, although inflation rates are relatively high for modest levels of seigniorage revenues. Finally, we discuss the role of the weak institutional framework surrounding the fiscal and monetary authorities and the role of monetary passiveness and inflation indexation in accounting for the unique features of inflation dynamics in Brazil. |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2018–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100935&r=all |
| By: | Gill Newton (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Part I of this paper describes a new 'Big Data' resource for historical mortality, the Family History Society burials dataset. This comprises 8.9 million individual records harmonised from Family History Society transcriptions of burial records in 4,200 English places with varying coverage dates spanning from about 1500 to 2000, and concentrated in the period 1600 to 1850. Adult and child burials have been separately identified using family relationship information, and post-1812 more precise age information is stated. Part II presents an exploratory analysis of burial seasonality and age at death using the Family History Society burials dataset. The seasonality of birth and baptism, which impacts on infant burial seasonality, is also considered using a subsample of four English counties (Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Nottinghamshire and Lancashire). This research forms part of a Wellcome Trust funded research project led by Richard Smith at CAMPOP entitled ‘Migration, Mortality and Medicalisation: investigating the long-run epidemiological consequences of urbanisation 1600-1945’. |
| Keywords: | seasonality, mortality, burials, baptisms, big data |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2019–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmh:wpaper:34&r=all |
| By: | Abel Gwaindepi (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The resource curse literature underscores the fact that extractive economies face challenges in diversifying their economies. What is less explored are the public finance challenges encountered in these economies when the extractive industries are completely owned by the private sector. Using a recently compiled dataset on public revenues, expenditures and debt, this paper explores the nexus between the privatized extractive sector operations and public finance policies of the Cape Colony between 1810 and 1910. The paper finds that despite the natural resource endowment, the Cape Colony became heavily indebted and had huge budget deficits by the time it joined the Union of South Africa in 1910. After the discovery of diamonds, competition for resource-rents caused a slowdown and in some instances reversed the progress made in consolidating state institutions. The drive towards a national program of development inherent in self-governing colonies was overturned when the competition for resource-rents culminated in rent-seeking led by the interests in the monopolized extractive sector. Rather than being the main source of government revenues and a basis for inclusive economic progress, as expected in a self-governing settler colony, diamonds became a trap through the operations of what I call a ‘Minerals-Railway complex’. The insights from the paper have important implications for our understanding of both settler colonialism in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as the management of natural resources in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | public finances, fiscal capacity, elite power, economic development, natural resources, African colonialism, Cape Colony |
| JEL: | H30 H41 H50 H61 N17 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers321&r=all |
| By: | Alejandro Ayuso-Díaz (Universidad Carlos III); Antonio Tena-Junguito (Universidad Carlos III) |
| Abstract: | During the interwar years, Japanese industrialisation accelerated alongside the expansion of industrial exports to regional markets. Trade blocs in the interwar years were used as an instrument of imperial power to foster exports and as a substitute for productivity to encourage industrial production. The historiography on Japanese industrialisation in the interwar years describes heavy industries’ interests in obtaining access to wider markets to increase economies of scale and reduce unit costs. However, this literature provides no quantitative evidence that proves the success of those mechanisms in expanding exports. In this paper we scrutinise how Japan—a relatively poor country—used colonial as well as informal power interventions to expand regional markets for its exports, especially for the most intensive human capital sector of the industrializing economy. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Empires, Trade blocs, Japan, Interwar years |
| JEL: | F14 N15 N75 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0153&r=all |
| By: | Mills, Terence C.; Capie, Forrest; Goodhart, C. A. E. |
| Abstract: | It is well known that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information for forecasting the likelihood of a recession in the US. This column examines whether the same is true for the UK. Focusing on three periods – the pre-WWI era, the inter-war years, and the post-WWII period – it finds strong support for the inverted yield curve being a predictor of UK recessions for both the pre-WWI and post-WWII periods, but the evidence is less conclusive for the inter-war years. |
| Keywords: | economic history; monetary policy; yield curve; recessions; UK; term structure |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2019–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100964&r=all |
| By: | Cameron E. Gordon; Caroline N. Peters; Jonathan R. Peters3 |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the use and preservation of historic roads in the State of New Jersey. The authors examine in detail the historical significance of a number of unpaved routes that continue to exist in Burlington County, New Jersey as well as discuss various methods that can be used to identify routes with historical significance. Field research was conducted to establish the current location of these historic routes, using GPS and GIS methods to estimate their likely date of construction. Further examination and mapping of these routes was undertaken, followed by documentation of the historical events linked to their use, thus establishing historical context. We have identified likely routes used as critical Revolutionary War supply routes, and describe a significant incident along one of these routes that partly contributed to Benedict Arnold’s treason against the United States. The paper concludes with a discussion of appropriate actions that should be considered in the preservation of these routes and offers planners some options in terms of public policy. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:078&r=all |
| By: | Alex Plastun (Faculty of Economics and Management, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine); Xolani Sibande (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska; USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a comprehensive investigation of the evolution of various monthly anomalies (January effect, December effect, and the Mark Twain effect) in the US stock market for its entire history. This is done using various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, ANOVA, the Mann-Whitney test) and a trading simulation approach). To confirm our results we extended the analysis to the UK, Japan, Canada, France, Switzerland, Germany and Italy stock markets. The results indicate that the January effect was most prevalent in the US and that the December effect and the Mark Twain effect were never prevalent in the US. This result was confirmed in other markets as well. The January effect was most prevalent in the middle of the 20th century but has since disappeared. Furthermore, the January effect provided exploitable profit opportunities. Our results are consistent and add to the existing literature through the use of a complete history of the US market. Overall, the US stock market is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Calendar Anomalies, Month of the Year Effect, Stock Market, Efficient Market Hypothesis, January Effect, December Effect, Mark Twain Effect |
| JEL: | G12 C63 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201950&r=all |
| By: | Michael Buchner (University of Saarland); Tobias A. Jopp (University of Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | The costs and benefits of insider trading is a persistent topic in the economic literature and public discourse alike. Nowadays insider trading is principally illegal and morally banned implying that the costs are supposed to weigh heavier than the potential benefits. We study insider trading pre-1914 in order to shed new light on its extent when it was still legal. Our focus is on the first wave of railway nationalisation in Prussia around 1879, the biggest financial transaction in German economic history by this time. Anecdotal evidence has it that insiders – e.g. involved banks or single bankers – made decent use of their exclusive knowledge on how nationalisation would proceed, thereby incurring huge profits. We show that insiders were active at the Berlin Stock Exchange, but contrary to anecdotal evidence could be so only in a very small time-window limiting their options sustainably. Contrary to what Braggion and Moore (2013) found for the London Stock Exchange, the rather modest extent of insider trading was not due to insiders’ ethical reservations, but due to the stock exchange’s institutional design that limited excessive insider trading in the absence of laws against it. |
| Keywords: | Abnormal Returns, Insider Trading, Nationalisation, Prussia, Railways |
| JEL: | D84 G14 N23 N73 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0151&r=all |
| By: | Gabriel Galvez-Behar (IRHiS - Institut de Recherches Historiques du Septentrion (IRHiS) - UMR 8529 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The influence of the patent system on the economic performance of Western countries during the Industrial Revolution is an important but difficult question to address. With the United Kingdom and the United States, France was one of the first countries to adopt a modern patent legislation in 1791. The aim of this paper is to understand the paradox of such a system, which was based on a democratic and natural-right conception of invention but turned out to be restrictive. It analyses the legal framework and its evolution from 1791 to the late 1850s and reveals its contradictory aspects: a natural right inspiration vs a restrictive access due to the cost of the patent. It shows how the 1844 Patent Act reform did not end the criticism of the French patent system. Then, in a second part, it considers the diffusion of patents in time, in different regions and industries and stresses the heterogeneity of the patent system. |
| Keywords: | Patents,Industrial property,History,France,19th century |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00544730&r=all |
| By: | André Roncaglia de Carvalho (Unifesp); Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | After his escape from communist Romania in the late 1940s, Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen used to describe himself as an “emigrant from a developing country”. Through his professional engagements with Vanderbilt University, he also came to visit many other parts of the developing world. One of his missions brought him multiple times to Brazil between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s, an experience which led him to write an article on the complicated dynamics between inflation and economic growth in developing countries – first published in Portuguese in 1968, then in English in 1970. In this paper, we will set Georgescu-Roegen’s contribution against the background of the lively debates on inflation taking place in Brazil at the time, stressing how his analysis departed from other approaches. Relatedly, we will show how he anticipated aspects of later controversies regarding the perverse distributive effects of inflation. Finally, we will explore some of the reasons why Georgescu-Roegen’s arguments had only limited influence over other scholars then working on inflation, despite his prestige and very strong connections with the Brazilian community of economists. |
| Keywords: | inflation, income distribution, development economics, structuralism, monetarism, Vanderbilt University |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td604&r=all |
| By: | Jérôme Sgard (Centre de recherches internationales) |
| Abstract: | The First Global Era (1870-1914) was not just about the Royal Navy securing the sea-lanes and the pound sterling towering over the international financial system. Rule Britannia, with all its explicit power relationships, rested as well on a wealth of private rules and self-governed institutions that made global trade reasonably secure and stable. While this private side of hegemony has been well identified for a long time, the actual construction of global markets, from a micro-perspective, remains largely unexplored – at least, when one looks beyond finance. The present contribution is based on the (as yet unexplored) archives of the London Corn Trade Association (LCTA), a rather small, non-profit, elite association that drafted and implemented the rules for the global cereal markets. From 1878 onwards, this asked that it did three main things. It adopted and updated grain standards, which transformed mere farm produces into globally traded commodities. It arbitrated disputes between merchants, an activity that earned its principals a substantial income flow. And it drafted and continuously amended tens of Standard Contracts that were offered to merchants worldwide. Standard Contracts established in general the market rules: there was no other forum where an adhesion to collective rules and the possibility of sanction were written down... |
| Keywords: | First Global Era; private governance |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/56gsnulbug97lpfa2ntprv6vm2&r=all |
| By: | Jacks, David S. (Simon Fraser University and NBER); Novy, Dennis (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs. |
| Keywords: | Commonwealth, distance, gravity, interwar period, trade blocs, trade wars JEL Classification: F1, F3, N7 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:424&r=all |
| By: | Johan Fourie (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Much has been said about the rise, or `renaissance', of African economic history. What has received far less attention is who is producing this research. Using a complete dataset of articles in the top four economic history journals, I document the rise in African economic history in the last two decades. I show that although there has indeed been an increase in papers on Africa, it has included little work by Africans. I then attempt to explain why this is so, and motivate why this should matter. The good news is that, mostly owing to efforts by the academic community, more is being done to encourage African inclusion. I conclude with a few suggestions on how to make more African scholars part of the renaissance of African economic history. |
| Keywords: | economic history, Africa, bibliometric, citations |
| JEL: | N01 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers323&r=all |
| By: | Prados de la Escosura, Leandro (Universidad Carlos III, CEPR, and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a long run view of human development as a capabilities measure of well-being for the last one-and-a-half centuries on the basis of an augmented historical human development index [AHHDI] that combines achievements in health, education, living standard, plus liberal democracy, and provides an alternative to the UN Human Development Index, HDI. The AHHDI shows substantial gains in world human development since 1870, especially during 1913-1970, but much room for improvement exists. Life expectancy has been the leading force behind its progress, especially until 1970. Human development spread unevenly. The absolute gap between western Europe and its offshoots plus Japan -the OECD- and the Rest of the world deepened over time, though fell in relative terms, with catching-up driven by longevity during the epidemiological transition and by democratization thereafter. This result compares favourably with the growing income gap. Economic growth and human development do not always go hand-in-hand. |
| Keywords: | Human Development, Well-being, Capabilities, Life Expectancy, Health Transition, Schooling, Income, Liberal Democracy. JEL Classification: I00, N30, O15 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:421&r=all |
| By: | Maxime Menuet (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article reassesses the links between the origins of the political economy and the Christian theology during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. I focus on the Jansenism movement-the most powerful Christian protest current in the pre-Revolution period. I reveal that the influence of this movement on economic ideas can be roughly divided into three issues. During the pre-Unigenitus (1713) period (first jansenism), (i) the original vision of labor that contrasts with the Protestant's approach and the Catholic doctrine, and (ii) the idea that self-interest can produce a social optimum were major contributions of the jansenism on economic debates. During the post-Unigenitus period (second jansenism), (iii) the confrontation between two parties-the "liberal" vs the "resistant" jansenism currents-on the interest-bearing loans issue led to the development of new economic arguments for or against the credit, while making reference to the Holy Writings. |
| Keywords: | Jansenism,theology,social optimum,labor,interest-bearing loans |
| Date: | 2019–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02153832&r=all |
| By: | Fukao, Kyoji; Paul, Saumik |
| Abstract: | Extending the literature on productivity convergence to a multi-sector growth framework, we show that 𝜎-convergence in regional productivity growth can be decomposed into 𝜎-convergence in sectoral productivity growth and 𝜎-convergence in structural transformation-led productivity growth. Empirical support is provided using novel historical datasets at the Japanese prefecture level from 1874 to 2008. In pre-war Japan (1874–1940), regional convergence was primarily driven by productivity growth in the secondary sector. The rapid productivity convergence within the secondary and tertiary sectors relative to that in the primary sector between 1890 and 1940 provided an important base for the large convergence effects of structural transformation in the post-war years through a larger sectoral productivity gap in the lagging regions compared to the leading regions. However, the pace of regional convergence gradually slowed down and since the early 1970s the 𝜎-convergence of structural transformation has been offset by the 𝜎-divergence of within-sector productivity growth and vice versa, thwarting the pace of convergence in aggregate productivity. |
| Keywords: | Structural transformation, Labor productivity, Regional convergence, Japan |
| JEL: | O40 O10 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:sspjdp:dp17-1&r=all |
| By: | Charles W. Calomiris; Matthew S. Jaremski; David C. Wheelock |
| Abstract: | Liquidity shocks transmitted through interbank connections contributed to bank distress during the Great Depression. New data on interbank connections reveal that banks were much more likely to close when their correspondents closed. Further, after the Federal Reserve was established, banks’ management of cash and capital buffers was less responsive to network liquidity risk, suggesting that banks expected the Fed to reduce that risk. Because the Fed’s presence removed the incentives for the most systemically important banks to maintain capital and cash buffers that had protected against liquidity risk, it likely contributed to the banking system’s vulnerability to contagion during the Depression. |
| JEL: | G21 L14 N22 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25897&r=all |
| By: | Jelnov, Pavel (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I address the U-shaped dynamics (a decrease followed by an increase) in the age at first marriage during the twentieth century. First, I show that the U-shaped dynamics have been steeper in Western that in other countries. Second, I find that these dynamics in Western Europe are strongly related to the post-WWII economic development. By contrast, in the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth centuries age of marriage was much less correlated across Western countries. I propose a simple model where age of marriage is a function of search frictions and a structural change of the economy. Both factors put together generate U-shaped dynamics as a result of an industrial boom that mimics the post-WWII economic development, especially in Western countries. |
| Keywords: | age of marriage, economic development, twentieth century demography |
| JEL: | J12 N32 N34 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12356&r=all |
| By: | Boberg-Fazlic, Nina (University of Southern Denmark); Sharp, Paul (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing literature on the impact of immigration, little is known about the role existing migrant settlements can play for knowledge transmission. We present a case which can illustrate this important mechanism and hypothesize that nineteenth century Danish-American communities helped spread knowledge on modern dairying to rural America. From around 1880, Denmark developed rapidly and by 1890 it was a world-leading dairy producer. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, and data taken from the US census and Danish emigration archives, we find that counties with more Danes in 1880 subsequently both specialized in dairying and used more modern practices. |
| Keywords: | Dairying, immigration, knowledge spillovers, technology JEL Classification: F22, J61, N11, N31, N51, O33, Q16 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:420&r=all |
| By: | Boxell, Levi; Dalton, John T.; Leung, Tin Cheuk |
| Abstract: | Can the slave trade explain Africa's propensity for conflict? Using variation in slave exports driven by the interaction between foreign demand shocks and heterogeneity in trade costs, we show that the slave trade increased conflict propensities in pre-colonial Africa and that this effect has persisted to the present. Moreover, we find empirical evidence suggesting two related mechanisms for this persistence--natural resources and national institutions. These results "decompress" history by connecting the short-run and long-run effects of the African slave trade. |
| Keywords: | slave trade; conflict; resource curse; institutions; Africa |
| JEL: | N47 N57 O13 |
| Date: | 2019–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94468&r=all |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford, CEPR and CAGE); Gardner, Leigh (London School of Economics and Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of GDP per capita are provided on an annual basis for eight Sub-Saharan African economies for the period since 1885. Although the growth experienced in most of SSA since the mid-1990s has had historical precedents, there have also been episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, so that long run progress has been limited. Despite some heterogeneity across countries, this must be seen as a disappointing performance for the region as a whole, given the possibilities of catch-up growth. Avoiding episodes of shrinking needs to be given a higher priority in understanding the transition to sustained economic growth. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:425&r=all |
| By: | Jeanne Cilliers; Martine Mariotti |
| Abstract: | We revisit the discussion on family limitation through stopping and spacing behavior both prior to and during the fertility transition. Using the birth histories of 13519 settler women in nineteenth century South Africa we find no evidence of parity specific spacing prior to the transition. In addition we _find no differences in spacing behavior based on differences in time invariant economic and social characteristics. On commencement of the fertility transition, we see increasing parity dependent spacing as well as variation in spacing based on differences in economic and social characteristics. We see little change in stopping behavior over time. The transition appears to be driven by delayed marriage and wider birth intervals. |
| Keywords: | Settler South Africa, fertility limitation, cure models, parity dependent spacing |
| JEL: | J13 N37 N97 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:077&r=all |
| By: | Fukao, Kyoji; Paul, Saumik |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of the long-run structural transformation in Japan. We use a dynamic input-output framework that decomposes the reallocation of the total output across sectors into two components: the Engel effect (demand side) and the Baumol effect (supply side). To perform this task, we employ 13 seven-sector input-output tables spanning 100 years (1885 to 1985). The results show that the Engel effect was the key explanatory factor in more than 60% of the sector-period cases in the pre-WWII period, while the Baumol effect drove structural transformation in more than 75% of such cases in the post-WWII period. Detailed decomposition results suggest that in most of the sectors (agriculture, commerce and services, food, textiles and transport, communication and utilities), changes in private consumption were the dominant force behind the demand-side explanations. The Engel effect was found to be the strongest in the commerce and services sector, which contributed to the rapid growth of GDP in Japan throughout the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | long-run structural transformation, the Engel effect, Baumol’s cost disease effect, sectoral productivity growth |
| JEL: | O40 O10 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:sspjdp:dp19-2&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | At the request of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and with the support of the IMF’s Asia & Pacific Department (APD), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) technical assistance (TA) mission visited Wellington, New Zealand during October 1–12, 2018.1 The mission’s main objectives were to assist the RBNZ to: (i) complete the central bank Standardized Report Form (SRF 1SR); (ii) review the source data and bridge table used to produce Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) Standardized Report Form (SRF 2SR);(iii) assist the RBNZ to produce additional historical data in the SRFs 1SR and 2SR for the past five years; (iv) review the available source data for the compilation the Other Financial Corporations (OFCs) Standardized Report Form (SRF 4SR); (v) prepare metadata for the central bank, ODC, and OFC surveys; and (vi) agree on a timetable for RBNZ’s SRF-reporting of its MFS. |
| Date: | 2019–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/163&r=all |
| By: | Kym Anderson |
| Abstract: | Despite favourable growing conditions, Australia’s production or exports of wine did not become significant until the 1890s. Both grew in the 1920s, but only because of government support. Once that support was removed in the late 1940s, production plateaued and exports diminished: only 2% of wine production was exported during 1975-85. Yet over the next two decades Australia’s wine production quadrupled and the share exported rose to two-thirds – before falling somewhat in the next ten years. This paper explains why it took so long for Australia’s production and competitive advantage in wine to emerge, why it took off spectacularly after the mid-1980s and why it fell in the ten years to 2015. It concludes that despite the recent downturn in the industry’s fortunes, the country’s international competitiveness is now firmly established and commensurate with its ideal wine-growing climate, notwithstanding the likelihood of further boom-slump cycles in the decades ahead. |
| Keywords: | boom-plateau wine cycles; comparative advantage; wine competitiveness; wine trade specialization |
| JEL: | D12 F15 L66 N10 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-22&r=all |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Linke Hou; Mingxing Liu; Lixin Colin Xu; Pengfei Zhang |
| Abstract: | We develop a theoretical model of how factional affiliation and local accountability can shape the policy choices of local officials who are concerned about political survivals, and subsequently affect the long-term local development. We provide empirical evidence in support of the theoretical predictions using county-level variations in development performance in Fujian Province in China. When the Communist armies took over Fujian Province from the Nationalist control circa 1949, communist cadres from two different army factions were assigned as county leaders. For decades the Fujian Provincial Standing Committee of the Communist Party was dominated by members from one particular faction, which we refer to as the strong faction. Counties also differed in terms of whether a local guerrilla presence had existed prior to the Communist takeover. We argue that county leaders from the strong faction were less likely to pursue policies friendly to local development because their political survival more heavily relied on their loyalty to the provincial leader than on the grassroots support from local residents. By contrast, the political survival of county leaders from the weak faction largely depended on local grassroots support, which they could best secure if they focused on local development. In addition, a guerrilla presence in a county further improved development performance either by intensifying the local accountability of the county leader, or by better facilitating the provision of local public goods beneficial to development. We find consistent and robust evidence supporting these assumptions. Being affiliated with weak factions and having local accountability are both associated with sizable long-term benefits that are evident in terms of a county’s growth and level of private-sector development, its citizens’ education levels, and their survival rates during the Great Chinese Famine. We also find that being affiliated with the strong faction and adopting pro-local policies are associated with higher likelihood of a local leader’s political survival. |
| JEL: | D72 H70 O1 O43 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25901&r=all |
| By: | Donald E. Bowen III (Virginia Tech - Department of Finance, Insurance, and Business Law); Laurent Frésard (Universita della Svizzera italiana (USI Lugano); Swiss Finance Institute); Gerard Hoberg (University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business - Finance and Business Economics Department) |
| Abstract: | We show that the recent decline in IPOs on U.S. markets is related to changes in the technological disruptiveness of startups, which we measure using textual analysis of patents from 1930 to 2010. We focus on VC-backed startups and show that those with ex-ante disruptive technologies are more likely to exit via IPO and less likely to exit via sell-out. This is consistent with IPOs being favored by firms with the potential to carve out independent market positions with strong defenses against rivals. We document an economy-wide trend of declining technological disruptiveness since World War II that accelerated since the late 1990s. This trend predicts fewer IPOs and more sell-outs, and we find that roughly 20% of the recent dearth of IPOs, and 49% of the surge in sell-outs, can be attributed to changes in firms' technological characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), Acquisitions, Sell-Outs, Technology, Disruptiveness, Venture Capital |
| JEL: | G32 G34 G24 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1922&r=all |
| By: | Havari, Enkelejda (European Commission – JRC); Peracchi, Franco (Economics Department, Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The negativ e long-term effects of World War II on those directly exposed to it are well documented, but there is no evidence whether these effects extended to subsequent generations. Our paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the intergenerational effects of World War II in terms of educational attainments. We focus on parent-children dyads in which parents were born between 1926 and 1949, and show two things. First, parents who suffered the war, that is, were exposed to major war events or personally experienced war-related hardship, ended up with less schooling than parents with similar characteristics who did not. Second, the children of parents who suffered the war have lower educational attainments than the children of parents with similar characteristics who did not suffer the war. Our reduced form results allow us to derive instrumental variables estimates of the coefficient of intergeneration transmission of education, which show that the effect of parental education is stronger for mothers than for fathers. They also show that the mother's education matters more for daughters than for sons. |
| Keywords: | Education; Intergenerational effects; War; Conflict; Hunger; Hardship; World War II; Europe: SHARE |
| JEL: | I0 J24 J3 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201904&r=all |
| By: | Nicholas Z. Muller |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates an augmented measure of national output inclusive of environmental pollution damage in the United States economy over a 60-year period. The paper reports two primary findings. First, air pollution intensity declined precipitously from the 1950s to the modern era. Air pollution damage comprised roughly 30 percent of output in the post WWII economy, declining to under 10 percent in 2016. Second, accounting for pollution damage significantly affects growth rates. Prior to the passage of the Clean Air Act in 1970, GDP outpaced Environmentally-Adjusted Value Added (EVA), defined as GDP less air pollution damage. Following passage of the Act, EVA grew more rapidly than GDP. Macroeconomic and environmental policies, as well as the business cycle, appreciably affect damages and EVA growth. |
| JEL: | O44 Q51 Q53 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25910&r=all |
| By: | David Cayla (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage) |
| Abstract: | This article aims to explain the contemporary emergence of populism in the European Union. According to Polanyi's double movement framework, the emergence of these political forces can be understood as the result of protective responses from societies weakened by difficult market adjustments. Since the Single Act treaty (1986), the European economy took a path that intended to create a supranational self-adjusting markets economy based on the ordoliberal philosophy. However, by detaching the economic sphere from the reach of politics, the European Single Market has injured some important social institutions. The rise and the diversity of populisms in the European Union can therefore be explained by an attempt to preserve some national institutions that were diversely impacted by the market forces. |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à expliquer l'émergence récente du populisme dans l'Union européenne. Dans le cadre du double mouvement de Polanyi, l'émergence de ces forces politiques peut être interprétée comme le résultat des réponses protectrices de sociétés affaiblies par de difficiles ajustements de marché. Depuis l'Acte unique (1986), l'économie européenne s'est engagée sur la voie d'une économie de marché supranationale autorégulatrice fondée sur la philosophie ordolibérale. Cependant, en détachant la sphère économique de la sphère politique, le marché unique européen a endommagé certaines institutions sociales de premier plan. La montée et la diversité des populismes dans l'Union européenne s'expliquent donc par une tentative de préserver certaines institutions nationales qui ont été affectées par les forces du marché. |
| Keywords: | European Single Market,institutional economics,Ordoliberalism,populism,marché unique européen,institutionalisme,ordolibéralisme,Polanyi,populisme |
| Date: | 2019–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02128366&r=all |
| By: | Hart, Robert A. (University of Stirling) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates of labor productivity for one-third of UK manufacturing during the Great Depression. It covers engineering and allied industries, and metal working industries. A unique data set of actual hours of work is combined with comparable real output and employment statistics. It establishes that output per worker-hour was countercyclical in the 1929-1932 peak-to-trough years of the Depression. This result has also been found for US manufacturing over the same period. Working time is found to play a crucial role the UK productivity response. Countercyclical productivity is discussed in terms of (i) the strong final output and consumer price deflations of 1929 to 1934, (ii) an absence of significant labor hoarding, and (c) diminishing returns to long weekly hours of work. |
| Keywords: | labor productivity, Great Depression, diminishing returns to hours |
| JEL: | O47 E32 N64 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12379&r=all |
| By: | Reto Bertoni (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Programa de Historia Económica y Social); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | The configuration of a “modern” production structure requires there to be sufficient energy supply at competitive costs to justify exploiting the corresponding natural resources. New Zealand’s better economic performance, since the last third of the 19th century in coal production and better natural conditions to generate electric energy at low cost –thus offering energy at low prices– explain, at least partially, the differences with respect to Uruguay. New Zealand's advantage in energy endowments facilitated the development of a dairy sector, certain energy-intensive manufactures and a more efficient use of railways that reinforced the differences between the two economies. However, endowments are not the complete story and the institutional arrangements are another relevant factor of differentiation. Our argument is based on the concept of endogeneity of natural resources and we use it to prove the hugely different roles of states in the creation and management of the electricity systems. These differences were not related to the extent of state intervention but to the achievements of such action. This action aimed at improving the welfare conditions in the case of Uruguay without paying enough attention to those aspects related to the production conditions; instead, in New Zealand, the productive development was the focus of the public intervention. The result was the creation of differential production conditions that explain the long-run divergent economic performance in terms of sector diversification and international competitiveness in favour of New Zealand. |
| Keywords: | settler economies, endogeneity of natural resources, role of state, electric system |
| JEL: | N50 N70 Q41 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-04-19&r=all |
| By: | Harley, C. Knick (University of Oxford) |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: D04, H26, H83 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:413&r=all |
| By: | Fraumeni, Barbara M. (Central University of Finance and Economics); Christian, Michael S. (Education Analytics, Madison) |
| Abstract: | This paper covers a continuous and longer time period than previously possible to examine human and market capital because of research by Christian (2017). This paper focuses on the presentation and analysis of trends in human capital by gender. During 1975-2012 there were significant changes in participation by women, the wage gender gap, and educational attainment and time in household production by both women and men. Both the market and nonmarket sectors will be covered as well as multifactor productivity with and without human capital. (A previous paper (Fraumeni, et al. 2017) described the national income accounting system which underlies both this paper and the much earlier paper by Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989).) New insights will be gained by looking in detail at the 1975-2012 time period. |
| Keywords: | human capital, differences by gender, production, multifactor productivity |
| JEL: | J24 J16 O47 J22 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12364&r=all |
| By: | Wannaphong Durongkaveroj |
| Abstract: | Along the path of economic development, advancement of some groups naturally generates economic disparity in a society. The concurrent presence of winners and losers invariably gives rise to the psychological economic question of how the losers perceive, and respond to, the benefits of development. The ‘tunnel effect’ proposed by Hirschman (1973) provides valuable insights for understanding the changing tolerance for economic inequality among the losers in the process of economic growth. This paper critically discusses this proposition, reviews the related literature, and provides possible extensions. |
| Keywords: | Income Inequality, Tunnel Effect, Development |
| JEL: | D63 O10 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-23&r=all |
| By: | Ghosh, sudeshna |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the ‘globesity’ hypothesis that is, it examines, the effect of globalization in its social and economic dimensions on the obesity of the nations. The study utilized a panel set of Asian countries dividing it into two groups based on the income classification. The annual time period of data series runs from 1985 to 2015. For the low and low middle income countries economic and social globalization positively affects obesity, implying the benefits of globalization leads to adverse impact on health. This is due to life style changes, availability of processed food and lack of public awareness. However, for the richer Asian nations globalization, particularly in its social dimension has negative impact on obesity. The study employs the Westerlund cointegrating techniques to investigate upon the long run causal association between obesity and globalization |
| Keywords: | Obesity; Health; KOF index; Social globalization; Economic globalization; Asia, Granger Causality. |
| JEL: | C1 I00 |
| Date: | 2017–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94601&r=all |
| By: | Peter Warr |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses five aspects of Thailand’s economic performance since World War II: the changing rate of growth and its composition; the sources of that growth; the causes and consequences of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) of 1997-99, including the reason it originated in Thailand; the distribution among the Thai population of the fruits of long-term growth; and whether Thailand is caught in a middle-income trap. The evidence from Thailand demolishes the notion that economic growth fails to benefit the poor – provided ‘benefit’ is understood in absolute and not relative terms. It is argued that Thailand is now caught in a ‘middle-income trap’ caused by a backward and under-resourced educational system. Exit is possible, but requires a public commitment to overcoming the under-supply of human capital that a market-based economic system inherently produces and to raising the public revenue needed to finance higher levels of educational investment. |
| Keywords: | Thailand, economic growth, poverty incidence, inequality, human capital |
| JEL: | O10 O47 O53 N95 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-16&r=all |
| By: | Jérôme Sgard (Centre de recherches internationales) |
| Abstract: | The Paris Peace Conference, Paris & Versailles, 5-8 June 2019 - International commercial arbitration is one of the most successful – yet indirect and largely ignored – heirs to the Treaty of Versailles. It was born in Paris in 1923, in the unique political, economic and institutional context that followed the end of World War I and the creation of the League of Nations. But whereas the League soon disappointed its sponsors and the International Labor Organization (ILO), for instance, maintains only modest activity, arbitration has grown into one of the major institutions of the global economy... |
| Keywords: | International commercial arbitration; Treaty of Versailles; multilateralism |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4q21t9f0hs9km8fs422nu2glhl&r=all |
| By: | Pacific K. T. Yapatake (Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China); Shan J. Li (Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays the Central African Republic (CAR) is experiencing huge economic insecurity which mostly derives from the political governance crisis that the country has been continuously undergoing since its independence in 1960. This paper examines the relationship between political governance crisis and economic security in the country covering the period of 1996-2015, using two stage instrumental analysis and second order asymptotic tests. The results show that political stability and absence of violence/terrorism ,voice and accountability, proxies of political governance crisis played a different role on national income per capita, agricultural raw materials exports, agriculture value added, external balance on goods and services, food exports, food imports, foreign direct investment, GDP growth, GDP per capita growth, inflation, wage and salaried workers, industry value added, total natural resources rent and trade , proxies of economic security. The importance of sustainable political governance stability and the implementation of appropriate reforms at institutional level are a preconditions to economic security. |
| Keywords: | Economic security, political governance crisis, two stage instrumental analysis, Second order asymptotic test, CAR |
| JEL: | A12 B22 C50 I O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aby:wpaper:18/001&r=all |
| By: | Schreurs, Geert |
| Abstract: | This study ties together a number of aspects influencing the production of precious metals in Tokugawa Japan (1600-1867), including international trade, technology and institutional arrangements. The main goal is to provide comprehensive estimates of the production silver, copper, and gold, as well as the economic relevance of this production. These estimates are arrived at by combining existing data and interpolating missing data under specific assumptions. Supply side and use side data are confronted to check consistency. The results show pronounced peaks in the production of silver circa 1630, and copper around 1700. Silver output comprised around 3% of GDP at its peak, which was unsurpassed by other mining sectors during the Tokugawa or even the Meiji period. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:sspjdp:dp17-9&r=all |
| By: | Eduardo Rosas Rojas; Mónica C. Mimbrera Delgado |
| Keywords: | Incertidumbre inflacionaria; Inflación; Independencia; Transparencia; Volatilidad cambiaria; inflation uncertainty; inflation; independence; transparency; exchange rate volatility. |
| JEL: | C51 E31 F31 |
| Date: | 2018–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:017297&r=all |
| By: | Hal Hill |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the Indonesian economy and the drivers of socio-economic development over the past half-century. It highlights the country’s rapid economic development in the face of unfavourable ‘initial conditions’. We examine episodes in economic development, in particular comparing and contrasting the two main sub-periods, of high economic growth during the authoritarian Soeharto era, 1966-98, and moderate economic growth during the democratic era since 1999. The paper emphasizes the importance of sound macroeconomic management, economic openness, inclusive social progress and institutional development. For all the challenges that Indonesia faces, and its unfinished reform agenda, the major conclusion is one of development success, broadly defined. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, economic development, Asian economies, policy reform |
| JEL: | N15 O11 O53 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-21&r=all |
| By: | Alexandre Frondizi; Simon Porcher (IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises) |
| Abstract: | How can districts become totally embedded in informal economy despite harsh state regulation? In this paper, we use qualitative and quantitative data to explain the increasing number of "clandestine" street prostitutes in Paris during The Belle Epoque. We first describe the economics of street prostitution at the time: street prostitutes were young, unskilled and well-paid; they tended to work with pimps that were from the same area and clustered in neighborhoods where they could compete with regulated brothels. Street prostitutes not only generated profits for themselves but also for a whole bunch of actors, thereby switching the whole local economy to this industry, at the expense of the formal economy. |
| Date: | 2019–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02146498&r=all |
| By: | Kym Anderson; Sundar Ponnusamy |
| Abstract: | Understanding how and why economies structurally transform as they grow is crucial for sound national policy making. Typically analysts of this issue focus on sectoral shares of GDP and employment. This paper extends that to include exports, including of services. It also considers mining in addition to agriculture and manufacturing, and recognizes some of the products of those four sectors are nontradable. The theory section’s general equilibrium model provides hypotheses about structural change in different types of economies as they grow, and tests them econometrically with annual data for a sample of 117 countries for the period 1991-2014. The results point to the futility of adopting protective policies aimed at slowing de-agriculturalization and subsequent de-industrialization in terms of sectoral shares, since those trends inevitably will accompany economic growth. Fortuitously governments now have far more efficient and equitable ways of supporting the adjustments needed by people choosing or being pushed to leave declining industries. |
| Keywords: | patterns of structural change, comparative advantage, productivity growth, declining sectors |
| JEL: | D51 E23 F11 F43 N50 N60 O13 O14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-26&r=all |
| By: | Ljungwall, Christer; Bohman, Viking |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative is gradually moving China and its economy beyond the reach of Western sanctions and reducing the economic impact that a US naval blockade could have. Christer Ljungwall and Viking Bohman contend that, without a measured Western response, this could increase the likelihood of Chinese aggression in regional territorial disputes. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2017–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86891&r=all |
| By: | Drechsel, Thomas; Tenreyro, Silvana |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles. The economy consists of two sectors, one of which produces commodities with prices subject to exogenous international fluctuations. These fluctuations affect both the competitiveness of the economy and its borrowing terms, as higher commodity prices are associated with lower spreads between the country's borrowing rate and world interest rates. Both effects jointly result in strongly positive effects of commodity price increases on GDP, consumption, and investment, and a negative effect on the total trade balance. Furthermore, they generate excess volatility of consumption over output and a large volatility of investment. Besides explicitly incorporating a double role of commodity prices, the model structure nests the various candidate sources of shocks proposed in previous work on emerging economy business cycles. Estimating the model on Argentine data, we find that the contribution of commodity price shocks to fluctuations in post-1950 output growth is in the order of 38%. In addition, commodity prices account for around 42% and 61% of the variation in consumption and investment growth, respectively. We find transitory productivity shocks to be an important driver of output fluctuations, exceeding the contribution of shocks to the trend, which, though smaller, is not negligible |
| Keywords: | 681664-Research on Macroeco-nomic Fluctuations and Trade |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2018–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86517&r=all |