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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2019‒03‒25
24 papers chosen by |
| By: | Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Lewis, Joshua (University of Montreal); Severnini, Edson R. (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | Disparities in cross-city pandemic severity during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic remain poorly understood. This paper uses newly assembled historical data on annual mortality across 438 U.S. cities to explore the determinants of pandemic mortality. We assess the role of three broad factors: i) pre-pandemic population health and poverty, ii) air pollution, and iii) the timing of onset and proximity to military bases. Using regression analysis, we find that cities in the top tercile of the distribution of pre-pandemic infant mortality had 21 excess deaths per 10,000 residents in 1918 relative to cities in the bottom tercile. Similarly, cities in the top tercile of the distribution of proportion of illiterate residents had 21.3 excess deaths per 10,000 residents during the pandemic relative to cities in the bottom tercile. Cities in the top tercile of the distribution of coal-fired electricity generating capacity, an important source of urban air pollution, had 9.1 excess deaths per 10,000 residents in 1918 relative to cities in the bottom tercile. There was no statistically significant relationship between excess mortality and city proximity to World War I bases or the timing of onset. Together the three statistically significant factors accounted for 50 percent of cross-city variation in excess mortality in 1918. |
| Keywords: | influenza, pandemic, mortality, air pollution |
| JEL: | N32 N52 N72 Q40 Q53 O13 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12177&r=all |
| By: | Trezzini, Attilio (Roma Tre University) |
| Abstract: | In his Cambridge lectures, Sraffa argues that classical political economy and marginalist economics present two alternative theoretical structures. This was a major achievement reached during the preparation of the lectures. The understanding of these two theoretical structures was however still unfinished: as known, he had already identified the need for simultaneous determination of prices and distribution - a result comprehensibly not made explicit in the lectures; but the critical implications of this result for the interpretation of Marshall's position were probably not yet evident to Sraffa. He in fact still accepted the Marshallian thesis that classical political economy and marginalist economics identified two single alternative “ultimate standards of value”. Sraffa’s failure to also overcome this limitation of the debate on the ultimate standard bears witness to his, albeit critical, initial adherence to the Marshallian theoretical framework. The road towards Production of Commodities was open but still unfinished. |
| Keywords: | Sraffa; Piero Sraffa Papers; Marshall; Theory of costs. |
| JEL: | B12 B13 B24 B31 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:0034&r=all |
| By: | Philippe Batifoulier (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)); Nicolas Da Silva (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)); Mehrdad Vahabi (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we argue that the welfare state is an outcome of modern mass (total) warfare. The total war economy requires the participation of all citizens, erasing the difference between the military and citizens. Consequently, the war economy benefits from supporting the civilian population. The total war effect explains why a predatory state undertakes welfare programs. This is one of the contributions of the present paper. While welfare state is closely related to total warfare, social welfare is not. Fraternal social welfare in the United States preceded the New Deal and the rise of welfare state. Similarly, the French welfare system was born as citizen welfare and not state welfare. In fact, welfare programs were initiated in 1871 during the Paris Commune by workers under the name of la sociale, and it was established as a self-managed citizen welfare in 1945 before being displaced by government welfare programs. A second contribution of this paper is to explore the reappropriating effect or the way self-managed citizen welfare was transformed into a welfare state through a three stage process of reforms in 1946, 1967, and 1996. |
| Keywords: | Citizen welfare, La Sociale, Predatory state, State reappropriation effect, Total war effect, Welfare state |
| JEL: | D6 D74 H1 H53 N4 O1 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2019-03&r=all |
| By: | Pamfili Antipa (Département d'économie); Vincent Bignon (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic analysis is not just a game of equations; it is a narrative of the real. We argue in this article for a re-evaluation of the importance of narratives. Because each financial crisis is a unique event, the narrative is the natural form of analysis. In addition, the effects of economic policies can no longer be analysed independently of the narratives appropriated by economic agents (Schiller, 2017) and policy makers (Friedman and Schwartz, 1963). There is a twofold value in adding the historical dimension. Economic history is instructive by multiplying case studies, i.e. by increasing the variety of policy successes and failures analysed. History also loosens the shackles of our preconceptions, since comparing the past and present calls into question the exceptional nature of what we are living. |
| Keywords: | Economic history; Cliometrics; Narrative; Economic policy |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3333juqsbl8k6qn6kl3c2nkjtt&r=all |
| By: | Pamfili Antipa (Département d'économie); Vincent Bignon (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic analysis is not just a game of equations; it is a narrative of the real. We argue in this article for a re-evaluation of the importance of narratives. Because each financial crisis is a unique event, the narrative is the natural form of analysis. In addition, the effects of economic policies can no longer be analysed independently of the narratives appropriated by economic agents (Schiller, 2017) and policy makers (Friedman and Schwartz, 1963). There is a twofold value in adding the historical dimension. Economic history is instructive by multiplying case studies, i.e. by increasing the variety of policy successes and failures analysed. History also loosens the shackles of our preconceptions, since comparing the past and present calls into question the exceptional nature of what we are living. |
| Keywords: | Economic history; Cliometrics; Narrative; Economic policy |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3333juqsbl8k6qn6kl3c2nkjtt&r=all |
| By: | Stephanos Vlachos |
| Abstract: | This paper illustrates how a historical shock to political preferences can translate into observable electoral support as the political landscape evolves. During World War II, the Third Reich annexed the French eastern borderlands and their inhabitants were forcibly con-scripted into the Wehrmacht. In the first stage, survey data is used to show how this forced conscription reduced political trust. Municipality-level data and political discourse data are then combined to estimate the impact of conscription on support for radical candidates and on abstention in elections during the 1965-2017 period. Identification exploits the fact that different birth cohorts were affected in each annexed region by using eligible births as an instrument for conscription. In earlier elections in which platforms were more similar, both radical and moderate candidates were penalized in municipalities where more men were conscripted, resulting in higher abstention. In more recent elections, which were more polarized, conscription increased support for radical candidates. |
| JEL: | D72 N44 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vie:viennp:1904&r=all |
| By: | Barth, Thomas (Institute for Sociology, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Germany); Jochum, Georg (School of Governance, Technical University of Munich, Germany); Littig, Beate (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria) |
| Abstract: | The critical strand of the current sustainability discourse often refers to Karl Polanyi's work "The Great Transformation" (e.g. “World in Transition – A Social Contract for Sustainability”, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 2011). However, this reference is usually shortened, since in particular Polanyi's remarks about the commodification of labor are disregarded. Overall, work still plays a marginal role in the entire sustainability discourse. Consequently analytical as well as transformative potential remains unused. In our paper we want to put work into the center of the reflections on transformation and outline ways of a socio-ecological transformation towards a sustainable work society. For Polanyi the marketization of work and nature was in the center of his analysis of industrial society. He argues that market societies are constituted by two opposing movements - the laissez-faire movement to expand the scope of the market, and the protective countermovement that emerges to resist the disembedding of the economy. Thus transformation concepts which refer to Polanyi have to focus on the socio-ecological transformation of the working society. Accordingly, it is not just an energy turnaround as often argued, but a “work turnaround” that needs to be at the center of the (sustainability-oriented) transformation debate, which finally involves the re-embedding of the markets into society and the ecosystems. Summing up our arguments, we come to the conclusion that dominant sustainability-oriented transformation concepts fail (e.g. decarbonization, green economy), since they primarily aim at the ecological reorientation of market mechanisms. We argue that the initial point of the fundamental transformation of social relations and of social relations with nature is the (re-)organization of work. A transition to sustainability means in other words, reconceptualizing the global world of work by redefining the concept of work itself and its structural (e.g. the gendered and global division of work, paid/unpaid work, technological innovations) and institutional foundations (e.g. the role of the state). Exploring sustainable work provides a concrete basis for talking about both the direction of this transformation and the way to get there. |
| Keywords: | Societal-nature relationships, labor, Polanyi, sustainability, transformation research, commodification, work turnaround |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihswps:1&r=all |
| By: | Nicolas Brisset (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Raphaël Fèvre (University of Cambridge; POLIS) |
| Abstract: | This article examines Perroux's intellectual career, from the interwar period to the Vichy period, in the light of his Grand Tour of European authoritarian regimes. By assessing Perroux's singular analysis of the Italian, German, Austrian and Portuguese regimes, we will illuminate how Perroux used foreign fascist experi-ences to speak about France and the organization of Europe as a whole. Ultimate-ly, by analysis Perroux's thoughts it will enable us to develop our understanding of how the Vichy regime perceived itself, and can, thus, contribute to recent debates concerning the ideological nature—fascist or not—of the Vichy regime. |
| Keywords: | Fascisms, Travels, Vichy, François Perroux |
| JEL: | B41 B26 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2019-11&r=all |
| By: | Engelbert Stockhammer; Giorgos Gouzoulis (King’s College London); Rob Calvert Jump |
| Abstract: | Minsky (1975) proposed a theory of endogenous cycles that results from the interaction of real and financial variables. Minsky’s work has inspired a growing body of literature on theoretical business cycle models, but relatively little work has been done in the empirical field. In particular, while interest in financial cycles has risen significantly after the 2007-8 financial crash, and recent empirical studies have explored the impact of debt on aggregate demand or its effect on the probability of financial crises, the literature does not test for endogenous cycle mechanisms. In contrast, the present paper investigates econometrically whether or not business cycles are driven by corporate debt and/or by mortgage debt. We estimate simple vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models, using historical macroeconomic data for the USA (1889-2015) and the UK (1882-2010). We find robust evidence of endogenous corporate debt-driven cycles for the USA, weak evidence of mortgage debt-driven cycles in the USA and no evidence of corporate or mortgage debt-driven cycles for the UK. |
| Keywords: | Minsky cycles, corporate debt, mortgage debt, business cycles, historical data |
| JEL: | E22 G01 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1907&r=all |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of changing trends in female labor supply on productivity, TFP growth and aggregate business cycles. We find that the growth in women’s labor supply and relative productivity added substantially to TFP growth from the early 1980s, even if it depressed average labor productivity growth, contributing to the 1970s productivity slowdown. We also show that the lower cyclicality of female hours and their growing share can account for a large fraction of the reduced cyclicality of aggregate hours during the great moderation, as well as the decline in the correlation between average labor productivity and hours. Finally, we show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover, it depressed aggregate hours, output growth and male wages during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions. These results suggest that continued growth in female employment since the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States. |
| JEL: | E17 E27 E32 E37 J21 J3 J82 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25655&r=all |
| By: | Julia Cage (Département d'économie); Valeria Rueda |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the long-term historical impact of missionary activity on the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. On the one hand, missionaries were among the first to invest in modern medicine in a number of countries. On the other hand, Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviors. We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century, as well as their health investments. Using a number of different empirical strategies to address selection in missionary locations and into health investments, we show that missionary presence has conflicting effects on HIV today. Regions close to historical mission stations exhibit higher HIV prevalence. This negative impact is robust to multiple specifications accounting for urbanization, and we provide evidence that it is specific to STDs. Less knowledge about condom use is a likely channel. On the contrary, among regions historically close to missionary settlements, proximity to a mission with a health investment is associated with lower HIV prevalence nowadays. Safer sexual behaviors around these missions are a possible explanatory channel. |
| Keywords: | Historical persistence; Missions; Health investments; HIV/AIDS; Sexual behavior |
| JEL: | D72 N37 N77 O33 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/76npisrda99aop75h6fmi4vduu&r=all |
| By: | Shiue, Carol Hua |
| Abstract: | Abstract Does inequality within the family play a significant role in explaining mobility patterns from one generation to the next? This paper exploits temporal changes in mobility over approximately 20 generations and six centuries to shed light on the sources of social mobility. Socioeconomic data on status and links at the individual level come from historical biographies of seven extended families (dynasties as based on the male surname) who lived in one region in China. The analysis documents a trend towards greater social mobility over time. Times of greater inequality between fathers, especially educational inequality, are times of lower social mobility. Moreover, geographic location strengthens the role of inequality for social mobility. Decomposing inequality into between versus within-dynasty components, however, shows that not all inequality is associated with persistence. While inequality between dynasties is conducive to persistence, inequality witin the dynasty is associated with higher mobility, and this is true both upward and downward. Furthermore, among members of even closer kin in the dynasty, the positive relationship of inequality and mobility is stronger still. The results are robust to alternative measures of mobility, inequality, and definitions of status. |
| JEL: | D31 J62 N35 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13589&r=all |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of changing trends in female labor supply on productivity,TFP growth and aggregate business cycles. We find that the growth in women’s labor supplyand relative productivity added substantially to TFP growth from the early 1980s, even if itdepressed average labor productivity growth, contributing to the 1970s productivity slowdown.We also show that the lower cyclicality of female hours and their growing share can account fora large fraction of the reduced cyclicality of aggregate hours during the great moderation, as wellas the decline in the correlation between average labor productivity and hours. Finally, we showthat the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantialrole in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover,it depressed aggregate hours, output growth and male wages during the late 1990s and mid2000s expansions. These results suggest that continued growth in female employment since theearly 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6608&r=all |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se analiza la evolución de la población española entre 1950 y la actualidad utilizando la base de datos RegData descrita en de la Fuente (2017). |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2019-02&r=all |
| By: | Margherita Borella; Mariacristina De Nardi; Fang Yang |
| Abstract: | White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Welfare losses, measured a one-time asset compensation are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest. |
| JEL: | E21 H31 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25661&r=all |
| By: | Ethan J. Schmick; Allison Shertzer |
| Abstract: | Cities in the United States dramatically expanded spending on public education in the years following World War I, with the average urban school district increasing per pupil expenditures by over 70 percent between 1916 and 1924. We provide the first evaluation of these historically unprecedented investments in public education by compiling a new dataset that links individuals to both the quality of the city school district they attended as a child and their adult outcomes. Using plausibly exogenous growth in school spending generated by anti-German sentiment, we find that school resources significantly increased educational attainment and wages later in life, particularly for the children of unskilled workers. Increases in expenditures can explain about 50 percent of the sizable increase in educational attainment of cohorts born between 1895 and 1915. However, increased spending did not close the gap in educational attainment between the children of skilled and unskilled workers, which remained constant over the period |
| JEL: | H72 N32 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25663&r=all |
| By: | David Laidler (University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | Friedman’s Presidential Address was about “The Role of Monetary Policy†. Its famous discussion of inflation-unemployment inter-relationships was subservient to this broader topic. The program it promoted influenced monetary policy in the ‘70s and early ‘80s with mixed results, but enough of it survived to be a clearly visible influence on today’s inflation-targeting regimes. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20184&r=all |
| By: | Sinta, Nur |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at proving empirically the superiority of an explanation for recent financial crises in emerging countries which combines endogenous and exogenous factors rather than focusing only on one of these two kinds of factors. To this end, empirical analysis on estimates of random effects models for statistics of Fisher is built. Elements of a similar explanation have been made in the context of a particular crisis. This contribution covers the crises (Mexican 1994, Asian 1997 and Russian 1998), thus covering most of the financial crises that took place during the last decade of the twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis |
| JEL: | G01 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92896&r=all |
| By: | Ager, Philipp; Herz, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new insights on the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility. |
| Keywords: | Fertility Transition, Structural Change, Industrialization, Agricultural Income |
| JEL: | J13 N31 O14 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92883&r=all |
| By: | William J. Nuttall (Energy at The Open University, Milton Keynes); Constantine Samaras (Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh,USA); Morgan Bazilian (Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines.) |
| Keywords: | Energy Technology; Defense Policy; Innovation |
| JEL: | F50 H56 Q20 N42 N44 Q40 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1717&r=all |
| By: | Simona E. Cociuba (University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | After the 1990 unification, East Germany’s capital income share plunged to 15.2 percent in 1991, then increased to 37.4 percent by 2015. To account for these large changes in the capital share, I model an economy that gains access to a higher productivity technology embodied in new plants. As existing low productivity plants decrease production, the capital share varies due to the non-convex production technology: plants require a minimum amount of labor to produce output. Two policies— transfers and government-mandated wage increases—have opposite effects on output growth, but contribute to lowering the capital share early in the transition. |
| Keywords: | technological change, capital share, labor share, transfers, union markups |
| JEL: | E20 E25 O11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20185&r=all |
| By: | Héloise Petit (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2019–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02057372&r=all |
| By: | Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Portnykh, Margarita (Carnegie Mellon University); Severnini, Edson R. (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | Surface soil contamination has been long recognized as an important pathway of human lead exposure, and is now a worldwide health concern. This study estimates the causal effects of exposure to lead in topsoil on cognitive ability among 5-year-old children. We draw on individual level data from the 2000 U.S. Census, and USGS data on lead in topsoil covering a broad set of counties across the United States. Using an instrumental variable approach relying on the 1944 Interstate Highway System Plan, we find that higher lead in topsoil increases considerably the probability of 5-year-old boys experiencing cognitive difficulties such as learning, remembering, concentrating, or making decisions. Living in counties with topsoil lead concentration above the national median roughly doubles the probability of 5-year-old boys having cognitive difficulties. Nevertheless, it does not seem to affect 5-year-old girls, consistent with previous studies. Importantly, the adverse effects of lead exposure on boys are found even in counties with levels of topsoil lead concentration considered low by the guidelines from the U.S. EPA and state agencies. These findings are concerning because they suggest that legacy lead may continue to impair cognition today, both in the United States and in other countries that have considerable lead deposition in topsoil. |
| Keywords: | legacy lead in soil, cognition, pre-school children |
| JEL: | N52 Q53 Q56 R11 I15 I18 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12178&r=all |
| By: | Artem V. Efimov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is finding a method of calculating or at least reliably estimating the money supply in the 1710s’ Russia. The estimation is based on Gresham’s Law that states: “Bad money drive out good money.” The “good” and “bad” monies of Petrine era are identified. I argue that the “good” money was driven out by 1705 and, therefore, the emission of “bad” money in 1705–10 increased money supply. The increase is estimated to be about 40 percent. This conclusion calls for a further investigation of price dynamics of the period to determine effects of the increase. |
| Keywords: | Peter the Great’s reforms, monetary reform, money supply |
| JEL: | N1 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:175/hum/2019&r=all |