nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒03‒11
29 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Hur ekonomisk historia blev en egen disciplin vid de svenska universiteten By Krantz, Olle
  2. Destabilizing the Global Monetary System: Germany’s Adoption of the Gold Standard in the Early 1870s By Johannes Wiegand
  3. Men at work: Real wages from annual and casual labour in southern Sweden 1500–1850 By Gary, Kathryn E.; Olsson, Mats
  4. Lessons from nearly a century of the brand management system By Isabelle Aimé; Fabienne Berger-Remy; Marie-Eve Laporte
  5. The Value of Terroir. A historical analysis of Bordeaux and Champagne geographical indications By Catherine Haeck; Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
  6. Without coal in the age of steam and dams in the age of electricity: an explanation for the failure of Portugal to industrialize before the Second World War By Sofia Teives Henriques; Paul Sharp
  7. Discipline or external balance? The choice of international monetary systems in Europe By Ljungberg, Jonas; Ögren, Anders
  8. Bertrand Nogaro et l'économie de guerre : le Service de la main d'oeuvre étrangère By Alain Raybaut
  9. Geopolítica do minério de ferro brasileiro no entreguerras By Barros, Gustavo
  10. Money and modernization in early modern England By Nuno Palma
  11. At Your Service! Liquidity Provision and Risk Management in 19th Century France By Avaro, Maylis; Bignon, Vincent
  12. Halloween Effect in Developed Stock Markets: A US Perspective By Alex Plastun; Xolani Sibande; Rangan Gupta; Mark E. Wohar
  13. Neither the elite, nor the mass. The rise of intermediate human capital during the French industrialization process By Claude Diebolt; Charlotte Le Chapelain; Audrey Rose Menard
  14. Pandemics, places, and populations: evidence from the Black Death By Remi Jedwab; Noel D. Johnson; Mark Koyama
  15. Immigrant Artists: Enrichment or Displacement? By Borowiecki, Karol Jan; Graddy, Kathryn
  16. Cohesive Institutions and Political Violence By Thiemo Fetzer; Stephan Kyburz
  17. Economic Interventionism, Armament Industries and the Keynesian Theory - The economists debates in France and Great Britain, 1936-1940 By Fanny Coulomb; Alain Alcouffe
  18. Growing up in the Iran-Iraq War and Preferences for Strong Defense By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Hassan F. Gholipour
  19. Issues of Vocational Training Corporations: From the viewpoint of NPO policy (Japanese) By HATSUTANI Isamu
  20. A brief history of forecasting competitions By Rob J Hyndman
  21. Political Parties Do Matter in U.S. Cities ... For Their Unfunded Pensions By Christian Dippel
  22. Understanding inflation dynamics in the United States of America (USA): A univariate approach By NYONI, THABANI
  23. Productivity and the Great Recession By Oulton, Nicholas
  24. War and the Rise of Parliaments By Leandro de Magalhaes; Francesco Giovannoni
  25. A First French Episode in the Renewal of Nonlinear Theory of Economic Cycles (1978-1985) By Alain Raybaut
  26. Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradation Then and Now By Robert J. Shiller
  27. On the long-run calibration of the credit-to-GDP gap as a banking crisis predictor By Kauko, Karlo; Tölö, Eero
  28. 74 days under the Argentine Flag: The Experiences of Occupation during the Falklands/Malvinas War By Alejandro L. Corbacho
  29. Notas de Política Exterior Argentina I: La evolución de la opinión pública respecto de las Malvinas (1984-1997) By Alejandro Luis Corbacho

  1. By: Krantz, Olle (Umeå University)
    Abstract: Economic history became a discipline with its own chair professors at the Swedish universities at the end of the 1940s. The well-known economic historian Eli Heckscher played a central role for the establishment and his work led to a stronger position for economic history in Sweden than in most other countries. However, his influence was not strong in the formation of the discipline. He always emphasized use of economic theory as essential for the economic-historical methodology. Nevertheless, traditional historical methods became dominating; historians –except for Heckscher –were experts at the appointments of the professors and all candidates were educated in history. Economists were not interested in promoting economic history. Thus, Heckscher’s methodological views did not gain acceptance and a bias towards traditional history came to dominate for a long time. In the 1960s, however, interest in theoretical and quantitative methods increased but then, paradoxically, the inspiration came from the USA and not from Heckscher.
    Keywords: ekonomisk historia; nationalekonomi; historia; ekonomisk teori; preceptorat; professur; sakkunniga
    JEL: N01
    Date: 2019–02–28
  2. By: Johannes Wiegand
    Abstract: In 1871-73, newly unified Germany adopted the gold standard, replacing the silver-based currencies that had been prevalent in most German states until then. The reform sparked a series of steps in other countries that ultimately ended global bimetallism, i.e., a near-universal fixed exchange rate system in which (mostly) France stabilized the exchange value between gold and silver currencies. As a result, silver currencies depreciated sharply, and severe deflation ensued in the gold block. Why did Germany switch to gold and set the train of destructive events in motion? Both a review of the contemporaneous debate and statistical evidence suggest that it acted preemptively: the Australian and Californian gold discoveries of around 1850 had greatly increased the global supply of gold. By the mid-1860s, gold threatened to crowd out silver money in France, which would have severed the link between gold and silver currencies. Without reform, Germany would thus have risked exclusion from the fixed exchange rate system that tied together the major industrial economies. Reform required French accommodation, however. Victory in the Franco-Prussian war of 1870/71 allowed Germany to force accommodation, but only until France settled the war indemnity and regained sovereignty in late 1873. In this situation, switching to gold was superior to adopting bimetallism, as it prevented France from derailing Germany’s reform ex-post.
    Date: 2019–02–15
  3. By: Gary, Kathryn E. (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Olsson, Mats (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we use a brand new dataset to estimate and compare wages for casually and annually hired workers in early modern southern Sweden. We ask whether men in either situation could have supported families on the basis of their earnings. Findings indicate that casual earners would have been able to out-earn annual employees for most of the period 1500–1850, but by the eighteenth century when food prices had risen their relative comfort likely reversed. Similarly, while it was possible for long periods of time for men to earn a respectability basket on the basis of approximately 150 days work this was no longer true by the end of the eighteenth century. By that time, both groups would have increasingly struggled and other family members needed to contribute. Not only is this account inconsistent with the standard story of a nineteenth century male breadwinner family but it suggests that industriousness might not have been prompted by a desire to consume new commodities but by the need to maintain basic standards.
    Keywords: wages; casual labour; annually hired; Early Modern; Sweden
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2019–02–28
  4. By: Isabelle Aimé (IPAG - IPAG Business School - Ipag); Fabienne Berger-Remy (IAE Paris - Sorbonne Business School); Marie-Eve Laporte (IAE Paris - Sorbonne Business School)
    Abstract: Purpose-T he aim of this essay is to perform a historical analysis of the Brand Management System (BMS) in order to understand why and how, over the past century, the BMS has become the dominant marketing organizational model across Western countries and sectors and what the lessons are that can be learned from history to enlighten its current changes in today's digitized environment. Me thodology/approach-Building on Low and Fullerton's work (1994), the paper traces the evolution of the BMS from its creation in the 1930s to the recent digital era. Data from various sources-research papers, historical business books, case studies, newspaper articles, and internal documents-is analyzed to inform an intellectual historical analysis of the BMS's development. Findings-The paper uses the prism of institutional isomorphism to highlight four distinct periods that show that the BMS has gradually imposed itself on the Western world and managed to adapt to an ever-changing environment. Moreover, it shows that, in the current digital age, the BMS is now torn between two opposing directions: T he brand manager should act as both absolute expert and galvanic facilitator and the BMS needs to reinvent itself once again. O riginality/value-This paper provides a broad perspective on the BMS function to help marketing scholars, historians, and practitioners gain a better understanding of the issues currently facing the BMS and its relevance in the digital age.
    Keywords: Brand,Brand Management System,Marketing organization,Marketing history,History of marketing thought Pape r type-General review
    Date: 2018–11–19
  5. By: Catherine Haeck; Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: Previous studies on the value of terroir, or more generally geographical indications (GI), used hedonic techniques. We use historical data and exploit temporal and geographical variations in the introduction of wine GIs in early twentieth century France to study the impact on the price of specific wines in the years and decades following their introduction. We find large effects of GIs on prices of some Champagne wines, but no significant impact on Bordeaux or other Champagne wines.
    Keywords: Treatment effects, Appellations, European agriculture, regulation, wine history
    JEL: C21 L51 L66 N53 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Sofia Teives Henriques (Lund University); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: We provide a natural resource explanation for the divergence of the Portuguese economy relative to other European countries before the Second World War, based on a considerable body of contemporary sources. First, we demonstrate that a lack of domestic resources meant that Portugal experienced limited and unbalanced growth during the age of steam. Imports of coal were prohibitively expensive for inland areas, which failed to industrialize. Coastal areas developed through steam, but were constrained by limited demand from the interior. Second, we show that after the First World War, when other coal-poor countries turned to hydro-power, Portugal relied on coal-based thermal-power, creating a vicious circle of high energy prices and labor-intensive industrialization. We argue that this was the result of (i) water resources which were relatively expensive to exploit; and (ii) path-dependency, whereby the failure to develop earlier meant that there was a lack of capital and demand from industry.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution, natural resources, coal, electrification, energy prices
    JEL: N1 N5 N7 O13 Q4
    Date: 2019–03
  7. By: Ljungberg, Jonas (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Ögren, Anders (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: While there is a huge literature on exchange rate systems since the classical gold standard, less research has been devoted to comparisons of the different arguments that guided the choices. While the origin of the international gold standard in the 1870s was a result of silver coins disappearing from circulation due to rising silver prices, the gold standard has later been interpreted as a quest for monetary discipline. This discipline argument was introduced by the end of WWI as a support for a restoration of the gold standard. Its failure led to an emphasis on the need to avoid external imbalances, which came to the fore in the preparations of the Bretton Woods system. The balance argument was also central in the early discussions of a monetary union in Europe, but with the critique of Keynesianism it was superseded by the disciplinary argument which became determinant for the design of EMU.
    Keywords: exhange rates; Europe; gold standard; EMU
    JEL: F31 N13 N14
    Date: 2019–02–28
  8. By: Alain Raybaut (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)
    Abstract: Bertand Nograo est surtout associé à ses contributions originales d´eveloppées à partir de 1906 et dans l'Entre-deux-Guerre sur la monnaie, le change et les crises, que complètent notamment ses Eléments et Cours d'économie politique plusieurs fois réedités entre 1913 et sa mort en 1950. Dans cette perspective, le thème de la guerre de 1914-18 renvoie chez Nogaro à l'analyse des conséquences économiques et financières du conflit. On songe en particulier à ses contributons sur le financement de la guerre, l'endettement international et les réparations. On connait aussi son influence décisive sur la restauration financière de 1926 face aux difficultés de change et de trésorerie en France résultant du financement du conflit. Cette contribution souhaite mettre l'accent sur une autre facette, en revenant sur l'action de Nogaro en faveur de l'effort de guerre. Mobilisé comme officier d'Etat-Major en 1914, il est appelé à la fin 1915 au sous-secrétariat d'Etat à l'Artillerie et des munitions dirigé par Albert Thomas, pour créer et diriger le service de la main d'oeuvre étrangère destinée aux usines travaillant pour la défense nationale.
    Keywords: Bertrand Nogaro, économie de guerre
    Date: 2019–02
  9. By: Barros, Gustavo
    Abstract: This work explores the conflict in the international sphere in the interwar period regarding the exploitation of the large iron ore reserves in the central region of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, along with some of their implications. The literature that covers the debate about the steel-making problem and iron ore export, which occurred in Brazil from the 1910s to the early 1940s, largely neglected the differentiation of interests and antagonism between the world powers regarding the exploitation of these mineral resources. I argue here that this exploitation had significant strategic potential implications to the balance of power among European powers within the configuration established after the Treaty of Versailles. This circumstance unfolded into relevant events in Brazil, and allows us to understand both that ARBED came to the country to create the Companhia Siderúrgica Belgo-Mineira and the emergence of an openly antiexport discourse from some prominent politicians from Minas Gerais.
    Keywords: Interwar period; Geopolitics; Iron ore; Steel-making
    JEL: N44 N46 N56
    Date: 2019–03
  10. By: Nuno Palma (University of Manchester and CEPR)
    Abstract: Classic accounts of the English industrial revolution present a long period of stagnation followed by a fast take-off. However, recent findings of slow but steady per capita economic growth suggest that this is a historically inaccurate portrait of early modern England. This growth pattern was in part driven by specialization and structural change accompanied by an increase in market participation at both the intensive and extensive levels. These, I argue, were supported by the gradual increase in money supply made possible by the importation of precious metals from America. They allowed for a substantial increase in the monetization and liquidity levels of the economy, hence decreasing transaction costs, increasing market thickness, changing the relative incentive for participating in the market, and allowing agglomeration economies to arise. By making trade with Asia possible, precious metals also induced demand for new desirable goods, which in turn encouraged market participation. Finally, the increased monetization and market participation made tax collection easier. This helped the government to build up fiscal capacity and as a consequence to provide for public goods. The structural change and increased market participation that ensued paved the way to modernization.
    Keywords: Origins and persistence of modern economic growth; the industrious, industrial and financial revolutions; early modern monetary injections; the great divergence; the little divergence; state-formation; provision of public goods
    JEL: E10 E40 E50 N13 N33 O40
    Date: 2019–02
  11. By: Avaro, Maylis; Bignon, Vincent
    Abstract: This paper uses a historical study to show a solution to the trade-off faced by central banks between providing liquidity to a broad group of financial intermediaries and the risk that this easy access may fuel moral hazard. In late 19th century the Bank of France operated a very wide discount window and used a variety of risk management techniques to effectively subdue risk-taking behaviors and to protect its balance sheet from taking any loss. This allowed agents to monetize a very diverse set of capital while limiting the risk of bail-out. We show that this effectively helped the central bank to stabilize the economy from the consequences of negative income shocks.
    Keywords: central bank; discount window; lender of last resort; Retail and shadow banks
    JEL: E51 G23 N13
    Date: 2019–02
  12. By: Alex Plastun (Faculty of Economics and Management, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine); Xolani Sibande (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK)
    Abstract: In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation of the Halloween effect evolution in the US stock market over its entire history. We employ various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, ANOVA, and the Mann-Whitney test) and the trading simulation approach to analyse the evolution of the Halloween effect. The results suggest that in the US stock market the Halloween effect became more persistent since the middle of the 20th century. Despite the decline in its prevalence since that time, nowadays it is still present in the US stock market and provides opportunities to build a trading strategy which can beat the market. These results are well in line with other developed stock markets. Therefore, in the main, our results are inconsistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
    Keywords: Calendar Anomalies, Halloween Effect, Stock Market, Efficient Market Hypothesis
    JEL: G12 C63
    Date: 2019–02
  13. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Charlotte Le Chapelain (CLHDPP-BETA, University of Lyon 3, Lyon, France); Audrey Rose Menard (Laboratoire d’Economie et de Management Nord-Atlantique, Nantes, France)
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Remi Jedwab; Noel D. Johnson; Mark Koyama
    Abstract: The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Despite its historical importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.
    Keywords: pandemics, Black Death, mortality, path dependence, cities, urbanization, Malthusian theory, migration, growth, Europe
    JEL: R11 R12 O11 O47 J11 N00 N13
    Date: 2019
  15. By: Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics); Graddy, Kathryn (Brandeis University)
    Abstract: In order to investigate the role of immigrant artists on the development of artistic clusters in U.S. cities, we use the U.S. Census and American Community Survey, collected every 10 years since 1850. We identify artists and art teachers, authors, musicians and music teachers, actors and actresses, architects, and journalists, their geographical location and their status as a native or an immigrant. We look at the relative growth rate of the immigrant population in these occupations over a ten year period and how it affects the relative growth rate of native-born individuals in these artistic occupations. We find that cities that experienced immigrant artist inflows, also see a greater inflow of native artists by about 40%.
    Keywords: Migration; agglomeration economies; cities; artists
    JEL: J61 N30 Z11
    Date: 2019–02–19
  16. By: Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick,; Pearson Institute at the University of Chicago; CEPR); Stephan Kyburz (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better at managing conflicts over distribution? We exploit exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments and use new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria to answer these questions. There is a strong link between rents and conflict far away from the location of the resource. Conflict over distribution is highly organized, involving political militias, and concentrated in the extent to which local governments are non-cohesive. Democratically elected local governments significantly weaken the causal link between rents and political violence. Elections produce more cohesive institutions, and vastly limit the extent to which distributional conflict between groups breaks out following shocks to the rents. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data.
    Keywords: conflict, ethnicity, natural resources, political economy, commodity prices
    JEL: Q33 O13 N52 R11 L71
    Date: 2019–02–07
  17. By: Fanny Coulomb (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Alain Alcouffe (LIRHE - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de recherche sur les Ressources Humaines et l'Emploi - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2018–05
  18. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg,); Hassan F. Gholipour (Swinburne University of Technology)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of individuals’ memories of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) during early adulthood (18-25 years) on their preference for strong national defense forces and their willingness to fight for Iran (in the event of another war). Using the World Value Survey (WVS) data, we provide evidence that Iranians who experienced the war during early adulthood give top priority to strong defense forces. However, we find that there is no significant association between individuals’ memories of the war during early adulthood and their willingness to fight for Iran. The results are robust, controlling for a set of individuals’ socioeconomic and political characteristics.
    Keywords: Preferences for defense; Iran-Iraq war; Impressionable years hypothesis; Beliefs
    JEL: H56 P16 Z13
    Date: 2019
  19. By: HATSUTANI Isamu
    Abstract: In 1958, the former Vocational Training Act, the first basic act concerning vocational training in Japan, was enacted. In 1969, the old vocational training act was abolished and the new vocational training act was enacted in order to train and secure new skilled workers capable of responding to the progress of the full-scale labor shortage and technological innovation due to high economic growth. With this new vocational training act, a vocational training corporation system with the primary purpose of conducting accredited vocational training was introduced. According to the amendment of the act in 1985, the name of the vocational training act was changed to the Human Resources Development Promotion Act. The name and purpose of the basic act have been changed, but vocational training corporations have not changed their names or roles. In this paper, after describing the history and present situation of vocational training corporations, we discuss the issues of vocational training corporations from the viewpoint of NPO policy.
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Rob J Hyndman
    Abstract: Forecasting competitions are now so widespread that it is often forgotten how controversial they were when first held, and how influential they have been over the years. I briefly review the history of forecasting competitions, and discuss what we have learned about their design and implementation, and what they can tell us about forecasting. I also provide a few suggestions for potential future competitions, and for research about forecasting based on competitions.
    Keywords: evaluation, forecasting accuracy, Kaggle, M competitions, neural networks, prediction intervals, probability scoring, time series
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Christian Dippel
    Abstract: Using data covering a wide range of municipal public-sector pension plans from 1962– 2014, I establish that unfunded pension benefits grow faster under Democratic-party mayors. The result is borne out in a generalized difference-in-differences (DiD) specification in levels and in growth rates as well as in a regression discontinuity design (RDD) focusing on narrow mayoral races. There is some evidence that the partisan effect is concentrated in police and fire-fighter plans. Being on a council-manager system matters very little to these patterns. While Tiebout sorting has been the proposed explanation for previous findings that parties do not matter for a range of fiscal outcomes in U.S. cities, Tiebout sorting may actually accentuate fiscal profligacy in the case of unfunded pensions.
    JEL: D72 D73 H7 H75 J5
    Date: 2019–02
    Abstract: This paper uses annual time series data on inflation rates in the USA from 1960 to 2016, to model and forecast inflation using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the US inflation series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model for predicting inflation in the US. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and acceptable for predicting annual inflation rates in the US. The results of the study apparently show that inflation in the US is likely to be less than 2% over the out-of-sample forecast period (i.e 10 years). The study encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary policy measures in order to maintain price stability in the US.
    Keywords: Forecasting; inflation, USA
    JEL: C53 E31 E37 E47
    Date: 2019–02–19
  23. By: Oulton, Nicholas
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2018–04–13
  24. By: Leandro de Magalhaes; Francesco Giovannoni
    Abstract: We consider the development of political institutions in Europe between 1350 and 1700 AD. In particular, we propose a model which links the i) frequency of calling of Parliament and ii) the transition (or absence of such transitions) to "Rule by Parliament" (i.e. Constitutional Monarchy) with the risks associated with particular battles and the underlying economic relationship between monarchs and the commercial elites. We test the model's predictions with a dataset we compile for England, France, Portugal and Spain that includes yearly parliamentary activity, major battles and measures of economic activity. We find support for two predictions of the model. Firstly, we provide empirical evidence that Parliaments are more likely to be called in years in which a) the country suffers a territorial defeat - our proxy for a high-risk war; and b) agriculture output is relatively low - our proxy for the resources available to the monarch that are not constrained by the commercial elites. We also discuss a case study for each of the countries in our dataset that links the model's results with the development (or lack) of transitions to Rule by Parliament.
    Keywords: Political Transitions; Wars; Glorious Revolution; Commitment; Parliament; Autocracy; Democracy.
    Date: 2019–02–20
  25. By: Alain Raybaut (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)
    Abstract: This paper focusses on a first episode in the renewal of nonlinear economic dynamics in France that develops at Cepremap in the late 70s and the early 80s. These contributions refer to the non-Walrasian perspective and the Keynes-Kaldor tradition building on emerging mathematical advances on bifurcation theory and chaotic dynamics of mappings on the interval, developed notably at the same time by French scholars in dynamical systems. These developments contribute directly to further and systematic investigations, albeit within the different analytical framework of the OLG model, on endogenous cycles and complex dynamics.
    Keywords: Endogenous business cycle theory, Nonlinear dynamics, Non-Walrasian and Kaldorian macrodynamics
    Date: 2019–02
  26. By: Robert J. Shiller (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: Concerns that technological progress degrades job opportunities have been expressed over much of the last two centuries by both professional economists and the general public. These concerns can be seen in narratives both in scholarly publications and in the news media. Part of the expressed concern about jobs has been about the potential for increased economic inequality. But another part of the concern has been about a perceived decline in job quality in terms of its effects on monotony vs creativity of work, individual sense of identity, power to act independently, and meaning of life. Public policy should take account of both of these concerns, inequality and job quality.
    Keywords: Labor-saving machines, Artificial intelligence, History of thought, Division of labor, Unemployment, Automation, Robotics
    JEL: N3 J0 B0 E2
    Date: 2019–02
  27. By: Kauko, Karlo; Tölö, Eero
    Abstract: The trend deviation of the Credit-to-GDP ratio (“Basel gap”) is a widely used early warning indicator of banking crises. It is calculated with the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter using an extremely large value of the smoothing parameter λ. We recalibrate the smoothing parameter with panel data covering almost one and a half centuries and 15 countries. The optimal λ is found to be much lower than previously suggested. The 2008 crisis does not dominate the results. The long sample almost eliminates filter initialisation problems.
    JEL: G01 E44 N20
    Date: 2019–02–22
  28. By: Alejandro L. Corbacho
    Abstract: The experience of military occupation confronts two groups of people in an asymmetrical relation of power established by the occupiers and suffered by the occupied. Once the occupation ends, this traumatic situation leaves a deep imprint in the memory of the occupied. The occupation of the Falkland/Malvinas Islands by Argentine troops that triggered the South Atlantic War in 1982 lasted 74 days and the cooperation from the islanders was negligible; they resorted to passive resistance, and showed their rejection of the invaders at every possible opportunity and the islanders even helped the British troops by providing intelligence and guidance on the terrain. This paper assesses the experience of the Argentine occupation. How did this small, tightly-knit islander community cope with the traumatic event of an occupation? How did the Argentine military personnel act and react during this period? In short, how did they conduct the occupation? How separated were the cultures of both occupiers and occupied? Until now this story has been told in a fragmentary form, scattered across different sources. This paper intent to put these fragments together and narrates the experience from three sides (the occupiers, the occupied and the liberators). Further analysis centers on the lasting effects of the occupation in the memories of three sides (the Argentineans, the islanders, and the British). The sources are interviews about the experience of the direct participants that were published shortly after the war and written material over the experience already published by both sides. This work shows that the views clashed at two different levels: one, about the interpretation of the rights and claims. How each country tells the story of possession and dispossession of the islands. The second level, considers the cultural characteristics of each group: the two cultures clashed because of differences in language, heritage, political and judicial traditions. Analysis of this case can yield important insights into occupations, particularly the “friendly” type, in which occupiers attempt to win the hearts and minds of the occupied, or, failing that, at least not antagonize them greatly.
    Date: 2018–12
  29. By: Alejandro Luis Corbacho
    Abstract: Este trabajo analiza las opiniones públicas de tres de los actores involucrados en la discusión por la soberanía de las Islas Malvinas: los argentinos, los británicos y los isleños en el período que abarca las dos primeras presidencias de la democracia reinstaurada a fines de 1983 en el país sudamericano: Raúl Alfonsín y de Carlos Menem. Ambos gobiernos mantuvieron el objetivo de alcanzar la soberanía sobre las islas pero siguieron dos políticas diferentes. ¿Cuál fue el impacto de estas políticas en la opinión pública de los actores involucrados? En base a datos de encuestas este trabajo sugiere que en el caso de las Malvinas, los gobiernos democráticos tienen capacidad para influir en la opinión pública y modificarla, pero según sea la naturaleza del tema el apoyo del público establece como mínimo límites externos de lo aceptable. Por el contrario, los otros actores en esta disputa, los británicos y los isleños, si bien se expresaron favorablemente hacia la posibilidad de establecer algunos lazos u acercamientos, mantienen una fuerte actitud de rechazo a cualquier propuesta de transferencia de soberanía. Este trabajo explora tres dimensiones específicas de la parte argentina: actitudes hacia la mejora de las relaciones, actitudes hacia las políticas de Malvinas del gobierno argentino, la idea de una administración y explotación conjunta de los recursos naturales y la visión retrospectiva y una mirada al futuro de cómo sería la futura resolución del conflicto a quince años de la guerra de concluida la guerra. Respecto de los otros dos actores: se analiza la opinión pública general respecto de algunas de esas dimensiones en el Reino Unido y en las Islas Malvinas.
    Keywords: Malvinas, Falklands, opinión pública, política exterior, soberanía
    Date: 2018–12

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