nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒02‒11
thirty papers chosen by

  1. Spain's tourism models in the first third of the twentieth century By Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles
  2. African states and development in historical perspective: Colonial public finances in British and French West By Denis Cogneau; Yannick Dupraz; Sandrine Mesplé-Somps
  3. Fiscal Capacity and Dualism in Colonial States : The French Empire 1830-1962 By Denis Cogneau; Yannick Dupraz; Sandrine Mesplé-Somps
  4. The Effect of Global Crises on Stock Market Correlations: Evidence from Scalar Regressions via Functional Data Analysis By Sonali Das; Riza Demirer; Rangan Gupta; Siphumlile Mangisa
  5. Those Who Stayed: Individualism, Self-Selection and Cultural Change during the Age of Mass Migration By Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen
  6. Spatial Inequality in Mortality in France over the Past Two Centuries By Florian Bonnet; Hippolyte D'Albis
  7. The Effects of Lender of Last Resort on Financial Intermediation during the Great Depression in Japan By Masami Imai; Tetsuji Okazaki; Michiru Sawada
  8. Public Debt Through the Ages By Barry J. Eichengreen; Asmaa A ElGanainy; Rui Pedro Esteves; Kris James Mitchener
  9. The History of Recent Macroeconomics Through the Lens of the Marshall-Walras Divide By Michel de Vroey
  10. Computations of French Lifetables by Département By Florian Bonnet
  11. Trading Forward: The Paris Bourse in the Nineteenth Century By Paul Lagneau-Ymonet; Angelo Riva
  12. The Dress Rehearsal: the creation of a Central Bank in Brazil in 1923 By Lúcia Regina Centurião
  13. “To destroy the settlement of estate”? the Glorious Revolution and estate acts of parliament, 1660–1702 By Kara Dimitruk
  14. Industrial activities and primary schooling in early nineteenth-century France By Adrien Montalbo
  15. Book review: Gerald D. Feldman, Austrian banks in the period of National Socialism By Macher, Flora
  16. Les économistes francophones et les équilibres non-walrasiens 1975-1985 By Alain Béraud
  17. Patriarchal capitalism with Chinese characteristics: gendered discourse of ‘Double Eleven’ shopping festival By Meng, Bingchun; Huang, Yanning
  18. Modigliani and the question of the existence of an equilibrium in a flexible price model By Alain Béraud
  19. Employment Structure and the Rise of the Modern Tax System By Anders Jensen
  20. Analyse scientométrique de la crise économique : Courants de pensée, auteurs influents et thématiques By Abdelghani Maddi
  21. Is There Too Much History in Historical Yield Data By Yong Liu; Alan P. Ker
  22. La philosophie économique de la Cinquième République : troisième voie ou renoncement ? By Gilles Saint-Paul
  23. Innovation et Administration : Quelle histoire (XIXe-XXe siècle) ? By Philippe Lefebvre
  24. Online Appendix to "Factors Affecting College Attainment and Student Ability in the U.S. since 1900" By Kevin Donovan; Christopher Herrington
  25. Crestere economica, acumulare ?i dezechilibre în România perioadei comuniste By Iancu, Aurel; Pavelescu, Florin Marius
  26. Pellegrino Rossi: A Ricardian at the Collège de France? By Alain Béraud
  27. Losing Your Dictator: Firms During Political Transition By Felipe González; Mounu Prem
  28. New Frontiers in the Euro Debate in Iceland By Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn
  29. Libéralisation du rail : qui va gagner, qui va perdre? By Olivier E. Malay; Leila Van Keirsbilck
  30. Green fiscal reform for a just energy transition in Latin America By Jakob, Michael; Soria, Rafael; Trinidad, Carlos; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Bak, Céline; Bouille, Daniel; Buira, Daniel; Carlino, Hernan; Gutman, Veronica; Hübner, Christian; Knopf, Brigitte; Lucena, André; Santos, Luan; Scott, Andrew; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Tanaka, Kanako; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Yamada, Koichi

  1. By: Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles
    Abstract: The remarkable emergence of the service sector to dominate the modern economy is the most outstanding consequence of the Industrial Revolution in the first third of the twentieth century. With it appeared a new social class which made an active contribution to the sector’s growth by opting for a new kind of tourist provision which was very different from traditional models, above all holidays in Spain. In the first third of the twentieth century, tourism in Spain was characterised by a variety of coexisting business models. On the one hand, business travellers went to the major cities. On the other hand, there was holiday travel, which can be broken down into three categories: the first type is traditional leisure-based tourism of an aristocratic cast, which dominated in the north, in the region of the Bay of Biscay, while the second type involves foreigners visiting the mythic south of Andalusia: Granada, Malaga, Seville and Cordoba. The third and final type, which appeared on the island of Majorca shortly after World War I, is the most modern, based on international colonial maritime traffic and cruise liners.
    Keywords: The history of tourism; tourism in Spain; hospitality; Service industries, economic development, social change.
    JEL: L83 N73 N74 O14
    Date: 2019–01–29
  2. By: Denis Cogneau (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Yannick Dupraz (University of Warwick [Coventry]); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL - Paris Sciences et Lettres)
    Abstract: Why does it seem so difficultto build a sizeable developmenta state in Africa? Agrowing literature looks at the colonial roots of differences in economic development, often using the French/British difference as asource of variation to identify which features of the colonial pastmattered. We use historical archivestobuildanewdatasetofpublicfinancesin9Frenchand4Britishcoloniesof West Africa from 1900 to in dependence.Though we find some significant differences between French and British colonies, we conclude that over all patterns of public finances were similarin both empires. The most striking fact is the greatin crease in expenditure per capitain the last decades of colonization: it quadrupled between the end o World War II and independence. This increase inexpenditure was made possible partly by an increase incustoms revenue due to rising trade flows, but mostly by policy changes: netsubsidies from colonizers to their colonies became positive, while, within the colonies, direct and indirect taxation rates increased. We conclude that the last fifteen years of colonization area key period tounderstand colonial legacies.
    Keywords: state building,colonization,West Africa,Public finances
    Date: 2018–06
  3. By: Denis Cogneau (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Yannick Dupraz (University of Warwick [Coventry]); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, PSL - Paris Sciences et Lettres, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)
    Abstract: A novel data collection provides comparative evidence on the colonial states of the "second" French colonial empire, from their foundation to their devolution in the 1960s. Colonial states were neither omnipotent Leviathans nor casual night watchmen. On the one hand, we emphasize the extractive efficiency and capacity of adaptation of colonial states to different socioeconomic contexts and varying historical conditions. On the other hand, we put forward dualism as their main common feature and legacy. Colonial public expenditure was biased towards the needs of French settlers and capitalists. It was also costly, as high wages had to be paid to expatriated civil servants.
    Date: 2018–07
  4. By: Sonali Das (Advanced Mathematical Modelling, Modelling and Digital Science, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa and Department of Statistics, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics & Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Siphumlile Mangisa (Department of Statistics, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa)
    Abstract: This paper presents a novel, mixed-frequency based regression approach, derived from Functional Data Analysis (FDA), to analyze the effect of global crises on stock market correlations, using a long span of data, dating as far back as late 1800s, thus covering a wide range of global crises that have not yet been examined in the literature in this context. Focusing on the advanced nations in the G7 group, we observe heterogeneous effects of global crises on the time-varying correlations between the US stock market and its counterparts in the G7. While the post World War II period experienced a general rise in the level of correlations among developed stock market returns, we find that global crises in general have resulted in a stronger association of US stock market performance with that in the UK and Canada, whereas the opposite holds when it comes to how European and Japanese stock markets co-move with the US. Further analysis of sub-periods, however, reveals that the crises effect over stock market correlations is largely driven by the context and nature of the crises that possibly drive the perception of risk in financial markets. Overall, our results tend to suggest that in the wake of crises that are global in nature, diversification benefits will be limited by moving funds across the US and UK stock markets whereas possible diversification benefits would have been possible during the crises-ridden period of the early twentieth century by holding positions in equities in the remaining G7 nations to supplement positions in the US. However, these diversification benefits seem to have frittered away in the post World War II period, highlighting the role of emerging markets and alternative assets to improve diversification benefits in the modern era.
    Keywords: Functional data analysis, global crises, stock markets, comovements, G7
    JEL: C22 G01 G15
    Date: 2019–01
  5. By: Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)
    Abstract: This paper examines the joint evolution of emigration and individualism in Scandinavia during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920). A long-standing hypothesis holds that people of a stronger individualistic mindset are more likely to migrate as they suffer lower costs of abandoning existing social networks. Building on this hypothesis, I propose a theory of cultural change where migrant self-selection generates a relative push away from individualism, and towards collectivism, in migrantsending locations through a combination of initial distributional e¤ects and channels of intergenerational cultural transmission. Due to the interdependent relationship between emigration and individualism, emigration is furthermore associated with cultural convergence across subnational locations. I combine various sources of empirical data, including historical population census records and passenger lists of emigrants, and test the relevant elements of the proposed theory at the individual and subnational district level, and in the short and long run. Together, the empirical results suggest that individualists were more likely to migrate than collectivists, and that the Scandinavian countries would have been considerably more individualistic and culturally diverse, had emigration not taken place.
    Keywords: Culture, individualism, migration, selection, economic history
    JEL: Z10 F22 O15 R23 N33
    Date: 2019–01–23
  6. By: Florian Bonnet (UP1 UFR02 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR d'Économie - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Hippolyte D'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article analyzes the evolution of spatial inequalities in mortality across 90 French territorial units since 1806. Using a new database, we identify a period from 1881 to 1980 when inequalities rapidly shrank while life expectancy rose. This century of convergence across territories was mainly due to the fall in infant mortality. Since 1980, spatial inequalities have levelled out or occasionally widened, due mainly to differences in life expectancy among the elderly. The geography of mortality also changed radically during the century of convergence. Whereas in the 19th century high mortality occurred mainly in larger cities and along a line from North-west to South-east France, it is now concentrated in the North, and Paris and Lyon currently enjoy an urban advantage.
    Date: 2018–11
  7. By: Masami Imai (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Tetsuji Okazaki (University of Tokyo); Michiru Sawada (University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: The interwar Japanese economy was unsettled by chronic banking instability, and yet the Bank of Japan (BOJ) restricted access to its liquidity provision to a select group of banks, i.e. BOJ correspondent banks, rather than making its loans widely available “to merchants, to minor bankers, to this man and to that man” as prescribed by Bagehot (1873). This historical episode provides us with a quasi-experimental setting to study the impact of Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) policies on financial intermediation. We find that the growth rate of deposits and loans was notably faster for BOJ correspondent banks than the other banks during the bank panic phase of the Great Depression from 1931-1932, whereas it was not faster before the bank panic phase. Furthermore, BOJ correspondent banks were less likely to be closed during the bank panics. To address possible selection bias, we also instrument a bank’s corresponding relationship with the BOJ with its geographical proximity to the nearest branch or the headquarters of the BOJ, which was a major determinant of a bank’s transaction relationship with the BOJ at the time. This instrumental variable specification yields qualitatively same results. Taken together, Japan’s historical experience suggests that central banks’ liquidity provisions play an important backstop role in supporting the essential financial intermediation services in time of financial stringency.
    Date: 2019–01
  8. By: Barry J. Eichengreen; Asmaa A ElGanainy; Rui Pedro Esteves; Kris James Mitchener
    Abstract: We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
    Date: 2019–01–15
  9. By: Michel de Vroey (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: According to Leijonhufvud, the development of economic theory can be compared to a decision tree, the branches of which originate in choices made about basic methodological nodes. My paper is an attempt at putting this insight into practice by reconstructing the recent history of macroeconomics on its basis. To this end, I examine whether the decision-tree framework can explain three crucial turns in the history of the field: (a) the transition from Keynesian to new classical macroeconomics triggered by Lucas; (b) the transition from the Lucas model to Kydland and Prescott’s ‘real business cycle’ modeling strategy; and (c) the transition from RBC modeling to DSGE modeling.
    Keywords: Marshall, Walras, Keynes, Lucas, RBC model, New Keynesian model
    JEL: B22 E12 E E30
    Date: 2018–11
  10. By: Florian Bonnet (UP1 UFR02 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR d'Économie - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Debates concerning the territorial divide in France are deep. To bring a contribution to this issue, I compute the departmental lifetables since 1901, for both men and women. In this paper, I present the raw data collected to do so, namely yearly births and deaths by age as well as population by age at each census carried out during the 20th century. I add statistics according to military mortality and mortality in deportation to cover the periods of the Two World Wars. I also present the methods I use to compute these lifetables, which come mainly from the Human Mortality Database protocol. I revise this protocol to take into account the specificities of French departmental data, mainly the few changes in French departmental boundaries, the underestimation of infant mortality and the lack of raw data homogeneity. This new database complements a still limited supply of long-term mortality statistics computed at local level.
    Date: 2018–12
  11. By: Paul Lagneau-Ymonet (IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris-Dauphine); Angelo Riva (PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: Contrary to what law and finance theory would predict, the Paris Bourse was highly liquid at the turn of the 20th century: the traded volumes amounted to four times the French GDP. This magnitude was mainly due to forward trading. The Bourse had developed as a forward market, despite a ban on forward transactions. The official stockbrokers played a key role in legitimizing and legalizing these operations, previously equated with gambling. The 1885 legalizing act initiated a new field of law and made possible further regulatory changes that paved the way for the heyday of the Paris Bourse.
    Keywords: Financial markets,Legal origin,Nineteenth century,Traded volumes,France
    Date: 2019–01
  12. By: Lúcia Regina Centurião
    Abstract: This paper aims to analyze an experiment in the history of the Brazilian economy: the transformation of Banco do Brasil into a Central Bank in 1923, and the debate surrounding this experiment. More strictly, the article proposes to answer the following question: what was the role of a Central Bank for Brazilian policymakers in the mid-1920s? I point out that the Central Banks abroad were associated at the time with the maintenance of the gold standard, while in Brazil, although the discussion echoed the discourse between papelistas and metalistas, the defense of the creation of the Central Bank was appropriated by the agenda of the first group. Therefore, a generational change of policymakers probably was necessary to undo the association between a Central Bank and the excess of paper currency, in the economic thought of the political environment. The work is based on the idea of communities of interpretation, and editions of the Retrospecto Comercial, the Correio Paulistano, and annals of the Federal Senate were analyzed.
    Keywords: Central Bank; Gold Standard; policymakers
    JEL: B10 B15
    Date: 2019–02–04
  13. By: Kara Dimitruk (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: This article sheds light on the way the Glorious Revolution of 1688 in England affected property rights to land. From 1660 to 1702, the bulk of parliament’s legislative work was on estate acts that reorganized families’ rights to land use. Using a random sample of 65 estate acts, the article finds that the Revolution broadened political access to parliament. I show acts were primarily for members of parliament and their families, but new acts after 1688 had secondary connections to MPs as trustees. It also finds that the composition of the acts changed after the Revolution because landholders sought to break strict settlements, a new form of property conveyance. The findings establish the place of estate acts in the broad narrative of the Glorious Revolution and help to explain the development of capitalism in England.
    Keywords: property rights, Glorious Revolution, estate acts, strict settlements
    JEL: N43 H10 K11 P14 P16
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Adrien Montalbo (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article investigates the relation between industrial activities and the expansion of primary instruction in early nineteenth-century France. To do so, I use a newly constituted database on the location and characteristics of primary schools at the level of municipalities. This database is extracted from the Guizot Survey conducted in 1833, before the implementation of the first national law making the opening of a school mandatory in any municipality more than 500 inhabitants. By using mineral deposits as an instrument, I first show that the presence of industrial activities and the level of industrial production in a given municipality were positively influencing the presence of primary schools. Second, I show that this was due to an income effect thanks to which municipalities were capable of attracting teachers and of more frequently paying them on a regular basis. Other economic factors, as the agricultural resources of districts, and geographical or demographical factors as population dispersion were also important in explaining the location of primary schools. Finally, I show that this came at a price in terms of children enrolment in schools. The same economic factors were contributing to a diversion of children from schools, either because of a relative impoverishment of workers or because of an increased opportunity cost of schooling.
    Keywords: primary instruction,industrial activities,nineteenth-century France
    Date: 2018–06
  15. By: Macher, Flora
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–02
  16. By: Alain Béraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: L'analyse du chômage implique la prise en compte des relations entre les divers secteurs. Cette idée est à l'origine de la démarche de plusieurs économistes francophones qui durant les années 1970 cherchèrent à construire des modèles d'équilibre général capables de constituer les fondements logiques de modèles macréconomiques susceptibles de rendre compte des déséquilibres économiques et notamment du sous-emploi. Pour atteindre cet objectif, ils pensaient que le modèle qu'avaient conçu Arrow et Debreu devait être profondément transformé. Les hypothèses traditionnelles sur lesquelles s'appuyait ce modèle devaient être abandonnées pour qu'apparaissent les problèmes que pose la coordination des activités des agents économiques. Il fallait revenir, notamment, sur l'organisation des échanges, les modalités de fixation des prix et le rôle de la monnaie. Sur cette base, ils proposèrent des modèles macroéconomiques qui permettent de distinguer divers types de chômage qui appellent des mesures de politiques économiques différentes. Souvent, ces tentatives sont considérées comme un échec. On soutiendra ici une thèse différente : les modèles qui furent alors développés ont joué dans l'évolution de la pensée économique un rôle qui apparaît crucial.
    Keywords: Équilibre,Déséquilibre,chômage,profitabilité
    Date: 2017–12–07
  17. By: Meng, Bingchun; Huang, Yanning
    Abstract: In this article we consider the Double Eleven shopping festival as a major discursive site where the hegemony of what we call patriarchal capitalism with Chinese characteristics is articulated. The state, the market, the corporations, and the media, both mainstream and social media, all played an important role in building up a national spending spree that is deeply embedded in the current class and gender structure of China. The phenomenon of Double Eleven emerged at a time when state capitalism has been overwriting socialist institutions, while patriarchal ideology being further intensified through consumerism. As a consequence, the intersectionality of class and gender become increasingly manifest in the Chinese society. We start with a brief overview of the trajectory of gender politics in China since 1949, with specific focus on how the socialist project of seeking gender equality was gradually replaced by the quest for ‘womanhood’ and ‘femininity’. We then discuss, using both secondary sources and our own analysis of news coverage of Double Eleven, why maintaining a high level of consumer demand is of crucial importance for the Chinese state and what the state’s role has been in configuring the hegemonic gender order. A brief section on ideology and discourse lays out the conceptual framework of our analysis. It is at the intersection of a dissipating socialist ethos, emerging economic stagnation and ascending consumerism that the sexist discourse in relation to Double Eleven proliferates, and this is the analytical focus of our empirical section. We elaborate on the theoretical implications of the empirical analysis before concluding.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–07–19
  18. By: Alain Béraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In 1955, Franco Modigliani wrote his lecture notes for the Carnegie Institute of Technology. This document, entitled Preliminary Notes on the Theory of Money and Interest in the Framework of General Equilibrium Analysis, has remained unpublished. Working within a temporary equilibrium model similar to that developed by Hicks in Value and Capital, Modigliani proposes a monetary theory similar to but different from that proposed by Patinkin in Money, Interest and Prices. It establishes that this model does not necessarily have an equilibrium if prices and wages are flexible. It shows that the propositions usually associated with quantitative theory-the dichotomy between the monetary and real sectors, the neutrality of money, the parallelism of price and money movements-are not generally verified. It introduces wage and price rigidity into the general equilibrium model to construct an appropriate framework for the study of monetary policies. This innovative text is important for understanding how monetary theory was conceived and taught in the United States in the 1950s. Mots clefs: Modigliani, Théorie monétaire, Effet d'encaisse réelle, Théorie quantitative
    Abstract: Modigliani et la question de l'existence d'un équilibre dans un modèle à prix flexibles Résumé. En 1955, Franco Modigliani rédigea les notes du cours qu'il donnait au Carnegie Institute of Technology. Ce document, qui porte le titre de Preliminary Notes on the Theory of Money and Interest in the Framework of General Equilibrium Analysis, est resté inédit. Travaillant dans le cadre d'un modèle d'équilibre temporaire voisin de celui que Hicks avait développé dans Value and Capital, Modigliani proposait une reconstruction de la théorie monétaire voisine mais différente de celle que Patinkin développera dans Money, Interest and Prices. Il établit que ce modèle n'a pas nécessairement un équilibre si les prix et les salaires sont flexibles. Il montre que les propositions habituellement associées à la théorie quantitative-la dichotomie entre secteur monétaire et secteur réel, la neutralité de la monnaie, le parallélisme de l'évolution des prix et de la monnaie-ne sont pas généralement vérifiées. Il introduit dans le modèle d'équilibre général la rigidité des salaires et des prix pour construire un cadre approprié pour l'étude des politiques monétaires. Ce texte novateur est important pour comprendre la façon dont la théorie monétaire était conçue et enseignée aux États-Unis dans les années 1950.
    Keywords: Modigliani,Monetary theory,Real balance effect,Quantitative theory
    Date: 2018–09–27
  19. By: Anders Jensen
    Abstract: This paper studies how the transition from self-employment to employee-jobs over the long run of development explains growth in income tax capacity. I construct a new database which covers 100 household surveys across countries at different income levels and 140 years of historical data within the US (1870-2010). Using these data, I first establish four new stylized facts: 1) within country, the share of employees increases over the income distribution, and increases at all levels of income as a country develops; 2) the income tax exemption threshold moves down the income distribution as a country develops, tracking employee growth; 3) the employee share above the tax exemption threshold is maximized and remains constantly high; 4) movements in the tax exemption threshold account for the observed variation in tax collection across development. These findings are consistent with a model where a high employee share is a necessary condition for effective taxation and where the rise in income covered by information trails through increases in employee shares drives expansion of the income tax base. To provide a causal estimate of the impact of employee share on the exemption threshold, I study a state-led US development program implemented in the 1950s-60s which shifted up the level of employee share. The identification strategy exploits within-state changes in court-litigation status which generates quasi-experimental variation in the effective implementation date of the program. I find that the exogenous increase in employee share is associated with an expansion of the state income tax base and an increase in state income tax revenue.
    JEL: D31 H11 H21 H24 H26 H71 O15 O22
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Abdelghani Maddi (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: En s'appuyant sur les techniques de cartographie, en se basant sur l'analyse textuelle et l'analyse des réseaux de citations nous avons analysé le développement de la thématique de la crise économique. L'objectif est de montrer dans un premier temps les courants de pensée et les auteurs influents. Dans un second temps comprendre son évolution à travers le temps. Pour ce faire, nous avons extrait de l'interface du WOS en ligne l'ensemble des publications contenant le mot « crisis » dans les catégories disciplinaires « economics » et « business & finance ». Notre requête renvoie plus de 24000 publications. Nos résultats nous ont permis de montrer les différents courants de pensée dominant l'analyse de la crise économique ainsi que les auteurs les plus influents. L'analyse textuelle des termes présents dans les titres, résumé et mots-clés montre des changements majeurs dans la façon dont les économistes traitent le sujet. Désormais, une bonne partie des publications traitant la thématique de la crise économique cherche non pas à traiter les conséquences ou à proposer des solutions, mais plutôt prévoir l'avènement des crises à travers l'analyse des différents risques qui conduiraient à une crise. Nous avons montré également que cette thématique est très fortement dominée par la finance tant au niveau microéconomique que macroéconomique.
    Keywords: crise économique,analyse textuelle,bibliométrie,citations,références bibliographiques
    Date: 2018–11–14
  21. By: Yong Liu; Alan P. Ker
    Abstract: County crop yield data from United States Department of Agriculture - National Agricultural Statistics Service has and continues to be extensively used in the literature as well as practice. The most notable practical example is crop insurance, as the Risk Management Agency uses the data to set guarantees, estimate premium rates, and calculate indemnities for their area programs. In many applications including crop insurance, yield data are detrended and adjusted for possible heteroscedasticity and then assumed to be independent and identically distributed. For most major crop-region combinations, county yield data exist from the 1950s onwards and reflect very significant innovations in both seed and farm management technologies; innovations that have likely moved mass all around the support of the yield distribution. Despite correcting for movements in the first two moments of the yield data generating process (dgp), these innovations raise doubt regarding the identically distributed assumption. This manuscript considers the question of how much historical yield data should be used in empirical analyses. The answer is obviously dependent on the empirical application, crop-region combination, econometric methodology, and chosen loss function. Nonetheless, we hope to provide some guidance by tackling this question in three ways. First, we use distributional tests to assess if and when the adjusted yield data may result from different dgps. Second, we consider the application to crop insurance by using an out-of-sample rating game -- commonly employed in the literature -- to compare rates from the full versus historically restricted data sets. Third, we estimate flexible time-varying dgps and then simulate to quantify the additional error when the identically distributed assumption is erroneously imposed. Our findings suggest that despite accounting for time-varying movements in the first two moments, using yield data more than 30 years past increases estimation error. Given that discarding historical data is unappetizing, particularly so in applications with relatively small T, we investigate three methodologies that re-incorporate the discarded data while explicitly acknowledging: (i) the retained and discarded data are from different dgps; and (ii) the extent and form of those differences is unknown. Our results suggest gains in efficiency may be realized by using these more flexible methodologies. While our results are most applicable to the crop insurance literature, we suggest proceeding with caution when using historical yield data in other applications as well.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2019–01–30
  22. By: Gilles Saint-Paul (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: La Cinquième République fête en 2018 ses soixante ans. Mais cette exceptionnelle longévité s'est accommodée d'évolutions multiples. La Cinquième République est celle d'Antoine Pinay mais aussi de Christiane Taubira, de Georges Pompidou et d'Emmanuel Macron, de Raymond Marcellin et de Martine Aubry. La Cinquième République que nous connaissons est-elle la même qu'en 1958 ? Si oui, quelles sont ses spécificités ? S'agit-il d'un régime fourre-tout ou bien est-il porteur de principes particuliers ?
    Date: 2018–12
  23. By: Philippe Lefebvre (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Keywords: expérimentation,évaluation,numérique,design des politiques publiques,design,histoire,innovation,administration,bureaucratie
    Date: 2018–03
  24. By: Kevin Donovan (Yale University); Christopher Herrington (Virginia Commonwealth University)
    Abstract: Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Iancu, Aurel (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Române); Pavelescu, Florin Marius (Institutul de Economie Na?ionala)
    Abstract: The main economic results of the Romanian centralized planification and the dictatorial policy applied in Romania during the 1948-1989 period are analysed in this paper. During the first stage known as an extensive development, Romania was industrialized and almost the whole economic branches were modernized by a huge resource mobilization. In the circumstances of the obsession of high rates of growth, the heavy industry priority, the very high accumulation rates and the rejection of any elementary market mechanism, the socialist economic system was driven to a very deep and irreversible crisis.
    Keywords: centralized planification, resource mobilization, high accumulation rates, heavy industry, extensive development, crisis of the economic system
    JEL: B51 N14
    Date: 2018–04
  26. By: Alain Béraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2018
  27. By: Felipe González; Mounu Prem
    Abstract: We use new firm-level data from Chile to document resource misallocation in favor of politically connected firms during the transition from dictatorship to democracy. We find that firms with links to the Pinochet regime (1973–1990) were relatively unproductive and benefited from resource misallocation during the dictatorship, and those distortions persisted into democracy. We show that, after learning that the dictatorship was going to end, firms in the dictator’s network increased their productive capacity, experienced higher profits, and obtained more loans from the state-owned bank. We test for different explanations and provide suggestive evidence consistent with connected firms aiming to shield their market position for the transition to democracy.
    Keywords: Transition; Distortions; Firms; Networks
    JEL: D2 G2 G3 M2 N86
    Date: 2019–02
  28. By: Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn
    Abstract: The debate on currency arrangements and monetary policy frameworks in lceland has been motivated by developments in lceland and internationally in recent decades. Historically, lcelanders' colonial experience and struggle to retain control of vital natural resources made them hesitant participants in the European integration process. While sidestepping direct participation in the process leading to EU and EMU membership, they joined EFTA, the EEA and Schengen. Economic growth and development have been rapid, but the modernisation and liberalisation of the economy have been attended by signi:ficant volatility in nominal and real variables. At the same time, the European integration process has continued with its own set of challenges. It is in this context that a vibrant debate has taken place on the choice of currency and associated policies. The main emphasis has been on whether to adopt the euro (through EU membership) or retain the Icelandic króna with the most efficacious monetary policy framework possible. This article offers a review of salient contributions to the debate and the main lessons drawn from it. The key themes of the debate involve the impact currency choice would have on economic growth and resilience to shocks. While the early debate was mostly concerned with trade-theoretic issues, institutional factors have become increasingly important. A new theory concerning a heretofore overlooked policy variable, the evolution of inequality as measured by the wage-productivity gap, is discussed. It is shown to be potentially important for economic and financial outcomes, with implications for the debate.
    Keywords: Currency; exchange rates; monetary stability; financial stability; euro; factor incomes; distribution; wage productivity gap;
    JEL: E12 E13 E31 E32 E42 E52 E58 E63 E64 N12 N14 N22 N24 O47
    Date: 2018–10–12
  29. By: Olivier E. Malay (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Leila Van Keirsbilck (Université Catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: Cette étude aborde la libéralisation du rail dans les trois pays où celle-ci est la plus avancée (Grande-Bretagne, Suède et Allemagne). Nous étudions les impacts de la libéralisation sur les principaux acteurs susceptibles d’être affectés positivement ou négativement par celle-ci. Les résultats sont contrastés selon les variables étudiées et les pays. De manière générale, il semble que le coût pour le contribuable ne se soit pas réduit. Les subsides publics ont augmenté, que ce soit suite ou parallèlement aux expériences de libéralisation. La part modale du train et la ponctualité se sont améliorées dans tous les pays concernés, même s’il est difficile d’en attribuer la cause à la libéralisation, puisque celle-ci a été accompagnée d’un important refinancement et réinvestissement public. Les autres aspects de la qualité du service (prix, sécurité,...) ne semblent quant à eux pas avoir été sensiblement affectés par la libéralisation. Seule une différenciation des tarifs semble s’être généralisée, avec des billets plus coûteux en heure de pointe et moins coûteux en heure creuse. Enfin, il apparaît que le nombre de cheminots ait été considérablement réduit après la mise en place de la concurrence, entraînant plus de flexibilité et une augmentation des cadences pour le personnel restant. Les conditions de travail des cheminots se sont généralement détériorées.
    Keywords: Rail, Libéralisation, Analyse comparative, Grande-Bretagne, Suède, Allemagne
    JEL: L91 N70 R42
    Date: 2019–01
  30. By: Jakob, Michael; Soria, Rafael; Trinidad, Carlos; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Bak, Céline; Bouille, Daniel; Buira, Daniel; Carlino, Hernan; Gutman, Veronica; Hübner, Christian; Knopf, Brigitte; Lucena, André; Santos, Luan; Scott, Andrew; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Tanaka, Kanako; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Yamada, Koichi
    Abstract: Green fiscal reforms would contribute to climate change mitigation, increase the economic efficiency of national tax systems and provide additional public revenues. Some countries in Latin America have already taken first steps towards green fiscal reforms. This paper provides an overview of the major challenges for the successful implementation of such reforms and discusses how they could be overcome. The authors first discuss the role of country-specific economic and political enabling conditions that need to be in place for successful implementation for green successful reforms. Second, they emphasize the importance of comprehensive reform plans that include all relevant ministries and agencies and are well-aligned with other policy objectives, such as energy security and industrial development. Third, they highlight how appropriate sequencing and gradualism could lower implementation costs and hence increase the political feasibility of green fiscal reforms. Finally, the authors analyze the potential impacts of green fiscal reforms on the distribution of income and discuss transfer schemes that could avoid adverse outcomes for the poorest parts of the population. They use these four dimensions to illustrate why recent reform efforts in selected Latin American countries have been successful or have failed, respectively.
    Keywords: green fiscal reform,energy subsidies,Latin America,multi-objective climate policy,sequencing,distribution
    JEL: H23 E62 Q54 N16 Q48
    Date: 2018

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.