nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒02‒04
thirty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The long-run effects of missionary orders in Mexico By Waldinger, Maria
  2. On the Controversies behind the Origins of the Federal Economic Statistics By Hugh Rockoff
  3. The Impact of a Wartime Health Shock on the Postwar Socioeconomic Status and Mortality of Union Army Veterans and their Children By Dora Costa; Noelle Yetter; Heather DeSomer
  4. Public Debt Through the Ages By Barry Eichengreen; Asmaa El-Ganainy; Rui Esteves; Kris James Mitchener
  5. Market potential and global growth over the long twentieth century By Jacks, David S.; Novy, Dennis
  6. Beating the Odds: Black Jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911 By Michael Leeds; Hugh Rockoff
  7. The missing ingredient: Distance - Internal migration and its long-term economic impact in the United States By Viola von Berlepsch; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  8. CasP's 'Differential Accumulation' versus Veblen's 'Differential Advantage' (Revised and Expanded) By Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon
  9. Change and Persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d'Anxure 1730-1895 By Guillaume Blanc; Romain Wacziarg
  10. A Nazi 'Killer' Amendment By Benny Moldovanu; Andreas Kleiner
  11. Higher Education Supply, Neighbourhood effects and Economic Welfare By Elena Cottini; Paolo Ghinetti; Simone Moriconi;
  12. The Race between Demand and Supply: Tinbergen's Pioneering Studies of Earnings Inequality By Heckman, James J.
  13. The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London By Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel M.
  14. Immigration history, entry jobs, and the labor market integration of immigrants By Ansala, Laura; Åslund, Olof; Sarvim¨aki, Matti
  15. The spatial impacts of a massive rail disinvestment program: the Beeching Axe By Gibbons, Stephen; Heblich, Stephan; Pinchbeck, Ted
  16. Of mice and merchants: trade and growth in the Iron Age By Bakker, Jan David; Maurer, Stephan; Pischke, Jörn-Steffen; Rauch, Ferdinand
  17. Long-term Consequences of Early Parenthood By Eva Rye Johansen; Helena Skyt Nielsen; Mette Verner
  18. Why Economics Must be an Evolutionary Science By Vicente Ferreira
  19. Human Lifetime Entropy in a Historical Perspective (1750-2014) By Patrick Meyer; Gregory Ponthiere
  20. Human Capital and Economic Growth. By Claude DIEBOLT; Charlotte LE CHAPELAIN
  21. Boom, echo, pulse, flow: 385 years of Swedish births By Timothy Riffe; Kieron J. Barclay; Sebastian Klüsener; Christina Bohk-Ewald
  22. What do we know about changing economic activity of firms? By Pandey, Radhika; Sapre. Amey; Sinha, Pramod
  23. Boeotians, Achaeans and Europeans. Can we learn from the ancient Greek federal experience? By Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros; Kyriazis, Nicholas
  24. 1930: First Modern Crisis By Gary Gorton; Toomas Laarits; Tyler Muir
  25. Marginal Federal Tax Rates on Labor Income: 1962 to 2028 By Congressional Budget Office
  26. The emergence of the joint-stock companies in the Dutch Republic and their democratic elements in business By Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros; Kyriazis, Nicholas
  27. DE LAS CAUSAS PRÓXIMAS A LAS CAUSAS PROFUNDAS DEL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE BOLIVIA ENTRE 1950 Y 2015. By Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas
  28. A Historical Survey of Ship Reactivations By Congressional Budget Office
  29. Survival of the weakest? Culling evidence from the 1918 flu pandemic By Joël Floris; Laurent Kaiser; Harald Mayr; Kaspar Staub; Ulrich Woitek
  30. Identifying the symptoms of financial crises By Batista, Blessica
  31. The Cliometric Model of Glutting: An Experimental Analysis. By Claude DIEBOLT; Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE

  1. By: Waldinger, Maria
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects of different Catholic missionary orders in colonial Mexico on educational outcomes and Catholicism. The main missionary orders in colonial Mexico were all Catholic, but they belonged to different monastic traditions and adhered to different values. Mendicant orders were committed to poverty and sought to reduce social inequality in colonial Mexico by educating the native population. The Jesuit order, by contrast, focused educational efforts on the colony's elite in the city centers, rather than on the native population in rural mission areas. Using a newly constructed data set of the locations of 1,145 missions in colonial Mexico, I test whether long-run development outcomes differ among areas that had Mendicant missions, Jesuit missions, or no missions. Results indicate that areas with historical Mendicant missions have higher present-day literacy rates, and higher rates of educational attainment at primary, secondary and post-secondary levels than regions without a mission. Results show that the share of Catholics is higher in regions where Catholic missions of any kind were a historical present. Additional results suggest that missionaries may have affected long-term development by impacting people's access to and valuation of education.
    Keywords: Economic history; Values; Missionary orders; Colonial Mexico
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68841&r=all
  2. By: Hugh Rockoff
    Abstract: Although attempts to measure trends in prices, output, and employment can be traced back for centuries, in the main the origins of the U.S. federal statistics are to be found in bitter debates over economic policy, ultimately debates over the distribution of income, at the end of the nineteenth century and during the world wars and Great Depression. Participants in those debates hoped that statistics that were widely accepted as nonpolitical and accurate would prove that their grievances were just and provide support for the policies they advocated. Economists – including luminaries such as Irving Fisher, Wesley C. Mitchell, and Simon Kuznets – responded by developing the methodology for computing index numbers and estimates of national income. Initially, individuals and private organizations provided these statistics, but by the end of WWII the federal government had taken over the role. Here I briefly describe the cases of prices, GDP, and unemployment.
    JEL: A30
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25431&r=all
  3. By: Dora Costa; Noelle Yetter; Heather DeSomer
    Abstract: We investigate when and how health shocks reverberate across the life cycle and down to descendants by examining the impact of war wounds on the socioeconomic status and older age mortality of US Civil War (1861-5) veterans and of their adult children. Younger veterans who had been wounded in the war left the farm sector, becoming laborers. Consistent with human capital and job matching models, older wounded men were unlikely to switch sectors and experienced wealth declines. Fathers' severe wartime wounds affected daughters', but not sons', socioeconomic status. Daughters were shorter-lived if their fathers were older at the end of the war and had been severely wounded compared to daughters of fathers not severely wounded or younger when severely wounded. We suspect that early life conditions disproportionately affected daughters. Our findings illuminate the long reach of disability in a manual labor economy.
    JEL: I12 J24 N12
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25480&r=all
  4. By: Barry Eichengreen; Asmaa El-Ganainy; Rui Esteves; Kris James Mitchener
    Abstract: We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
    JEL: F0 H0 N0
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25494&r=all
  5. By: Jacks, David S.; Novy, Dennis
    Abstract: We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world from the early 1930s and that this trend significantly deviates from the evolution of world GDP. Finally, using exogenous variation in trade-related distances to world markets, we demonstrate a significant causal role of market potential in driving global income growth over this period.
    Keywords: economic geography; market potential; structural gravity; trade costs
    JEL: F1 N7
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91681&r=all
  6. By: Michael Leeds; Hugh Rockoff
    Abstract: The Kentucky Derby is the premier American horse race. The first race was held in 1875 and 13 of the 15 jockeys were African Americans. African American jockeys continued to play an important role until the turn of the 19th century when they were forced from the Kentucky Derby and the other big American races, victims of the rising tide of Jim Crow. This paper uses a new data set based on the odds on all the entries in the Kentucky Derby between 1875 and 1915 to examine the willingness of owners and trainers to hire African American jockeys and the willingness of fans to bet on them.
    JEL: J15 N0 N11
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25461&r=all
  7. By: Viola von Berlepsch; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
    Abstract: This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the 20th century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories.
    Keywords: Internal migration, distance, long-term, economic development, counties, US
    JEL: J61 N11 O15 R23
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1903&r=all
  8. By: Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon
    Abstract: This paper clarifies a common misrepresentation of our theory of capital as power, or CasP. Many observers tend to box CasP as an ‘institutionalist’ theory, tracing its central process of ‘differential accumulation’ to Thorstein Veblen’s notion of ‘differential advantage’. This view, we argue, betrays a misunderstanding of CasP, Veblen or both. First, we are not Veblenians and certainly not institutionalists: Veblen’s theory was evolutionary, while CasP is deeply dialectical, and institutionalism, particularly its ‘new’ varieties, emphasizes and often promotes what holds capitalism together, whereas CasP critically examines both the underpinnings of capitalized power as well as the forces that threaten and undermine it. Second, CasP’s notion of differential accumulation is not only different from, but also diametrically opposed to Veblen’s differential advantage. Veblen, who wrote at the turn of the twentieth century, before the appearance of business indices and financial benchmarks, emphasized the absolute drive for ‘maximum profit’ and saw strategic sabotage merely as a power means to an economic end. By contrast, CasP, which was developed at the end of the twentieth century, sees power not only as a means of accumulation, but also – and perhaps more importantly – as its ultimate purpose. Accumulators, it argues, are conditioned and driven to augment not their profits and assets as such, but their relative power, and this means that, as symbolic bearers of power, these profits and assets should be measured not absolutely, but relatively to those of others – hence the imperative of differential accumulation.
    Keywords: capital as power,differential accumulation,differential advantage,evolutionary economics,institutionalism,power,Thorstein Veblen
    JEL: P16 B15 B25 B52 L P22 E23 D3
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:capwps:201901&r=all
  9. By: Guillaume Blanc; Romain Wacziarg
    Abstract: Using a unique, comprehensive household-level dataset for a single French village from 1730 to 1895, we study the process of modernization during a period of rapid institutional and demographic transformation. We document changes in fertility, mortality, human capital and intergenerational mobility, looking for structural breaks associated with the French Revolution and paying close attention to the sequencing of changes associated with various aspects of modernization in the village. We find that the fall in fertility preceded the rise in education by several decades. Demographic change is plausibly associated with institutional and cultural change rather than with changes in the opportunity cost of children. The rise in education occurred mostly as the result of an increase in the supply of schooling due to the Guizot Law, rather than demand side forces. All these changes occurred in the absence of industrialization in and around the village. We conclude that institutional and cultural changes originating outside the village were likely the dominant forces explaining its modernization.
    JEL: N13 N33 N43 O43 O52 Z10
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25490&r=all
  10. By: Benny Moldovanu; Andreas Kleiner
    Abstract: We study killer amendments under various informational regimes and postulated voter behavior. In particular, the success chances of killer amendments are shown to differ across several well-known binary, sequential voting procedures. In light of this theory, we describe a remarkable instance of a motion-proposing and agenda-setting strategy by the Nazi party, NSDAP, during the Weimar Republic. Their purpose was to kill a motion of toleration of the new 1928 Government, and they were supported by their fiercest enemies on the far left, the communist party. The combined killer strategy was bound to be successful, but it ultimately failed because of another agenda-setting counter-move undertaken by the Reichstag president.
    Keywords: sequential voting, killer amendment, agenda-setting
    JEL: D72 N4
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2018_032&r=all
  11. By: Elena Cottini (Universita' Cattolica di Milano); Paolo Ghinetti (Universita' del Piemonte Orientale); Simone Moriconi (IÉSEG School of Management and LEM-CNRS (UMR 9221));
    Abstract: This paper estimates neighbourhood effects in the local provision of higher education, and incorporates them in a welfare analysis of higher education supply. We use an own built dataset on the history of higher education institutions in Italy during 1861-2010 to implement an instrumental variables approach that exploits initial conditions in the pre-unitarian Italian states, interacted with post-unification comprehensive reforms of the university system. We provide robust evidence of local displacement between higher education supply in neighbouring provinces. These effects are mostly concentrated within the same field of study, the same region, and a spatial reach of 90 Km. We show that accounting for these displacement forces is important to evaluate the local economic returns of higher education supply. On average, higher education returns explain more than 4% of local value added per capita. Returns are very localised, and larger in provinces that host university hubs.
    Keywords: : : neighbourhood effects; higher education supply; historical data; initial conditions; economic welfare.
    JEL: I23 I28 N00 R1
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201719&r=all
  12. By: Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: Understanding inequality and devising policies to alleviate it was a central focus of Jan Tinbergen's lifetime research. He was far ahead of his time in many aspects of his work. This essay places his work in the perspective of research on inequality in his time and now, focusing on his studies on the pricing of skills and the evolution of skill prices. In his most fundamental contribution, Tinbergen developed the modern framework for hedonic models as part of his agenda for integrating demand and supply for skills to study determination of earnings and its distribution and the design of effective policy. His lifetime emphasis on social planning caused some economists to ignore his fundamental work.
    Keywords: income inequality, hedonic models, general equilibrium, models of inequality
    JEL: B31 D31 D33 D63 I24 J20 P21
    Date: 2018–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12046&r=all
  13. By: Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel M.
    Abstract: Modern metropolitan areas involve large concentrations of economic activity and the transport of millions of people each day between their residence and workplace. We use the revolution in transport technology from the invention of steam railways, newly-constructed spatially-disaggregated data for London from 1801-1921, and a quantitative urban model to provide evidence on the role of these commuting flows in supporting such concentrations of economic activity. Steam railways dramatically reduced travel times and permitted the first large scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that our model is able to account for the observed changes in the organization of economic activity, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In counterfactuals, we find that removing the entire railway network reduces the population and the value of land and buildings in Greater London by 20 percent or more, and brings down commuting into the City of London from more than 370,000 to less than 60,000 workers.
    Keywords: agglomeration; urbanization; transportation
    JEL: O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2018–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91695&r=all
  14. By: Ansala, Laura (Aalto University School of Business and Pellervo Economic Research); Åslund, Olof (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sarvim¨aki, Matti (Aalto University School of Business and VATT Institute for Economic Research)
    Abstract: We examine how immigrants enter the labor market and whether their integration process varies by host country's immigration history. We focus on two countries - Finland and Sweden - that have similar formal institutions, but differ vastly in their past immigration experience. Nevertheless, in both countries, immigrants tend to find their first jobs in low-paying establishments where the manager and colleagues often share their ethnic background. Time to entry and entry job characteristics vary widely by region of origin. Furthermore, entry job characteristics predict earnings dynamics and job stability. The patterns and associations are remarkably similar in Finland and Sweden. These findings suggest strong regularities in labor market integration and ethnic segregation that are independent of immigration history and ethnic diversity.
    Keywords: Immigration; entry jobs; labor market integration; ethnic segregation
    JEL: J71
    Date: 2018–11–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2018_020&r=all
  15. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Heblich, Stephan; Pinchbeck, Ted
    Abstract: Transport investment is a popular policy instrument and many recent studies have investigated whether new infrastructure generates economic benefits and has spatial economic impacts. Our work approaches the question differently and looks at what happens when a substantial part of a national railway network is dismantled, as happened during the 1950s, 60s and 70s in Britain. Part of this disinvestment occurred following controversial reports on railway profitability and structure in the early 1960s – a course of action known colloquially as ‘the Beeching Axe’ after the author of the reports. The removal of railways is often blamed for the decline of rural areas and peripheral towns in post-war Britain. This rail disinvestment program was targeted at removal of underused and unprofitable lines and not specifically targeted at local economic performance. Even so, we find that there is a relationship between pre-war population decline and the depth of the rail cuts in the post 1950 period. Conditional on these pre-trends, we show that loss of access by rail did cause relative population decline, decline in the proportion of skilled workers, and decline in the proportion of young people in affected areas. The elasticity of population with respect to changes in centrality (or market access) is around 0.3 in our main estimates. Instrumental variables estimates based on the network structure of the cuts yield higher elasticities. An implication of these findings is that rail transport infrastructure plays an important role in shaping the spatial structure of the economy.
    Keywords: rail; infrastructure; Beeching
    JEL: H54 R1 R4
    Date: 2018–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91684&r=all
  16. By: Bakker, Jan David; Maurer, Stephan; Pischke, Jörn-Steffen; Rauch, Ferdinand
    Abstract: We study the causal connection between trade and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We construct a measure of connectedness along the shores of the sea. This connectivity varies with the shape of the coast, the location of islands, and the distance to the opposing shore. We relate connectedness to local growth, which we measure using the presence of archaeological sites in an area. We find an association between better connected locations and archaeological sites during the Iron Age, at a time when sailors began to cross open water very routinely and on a big scale. We corroborate these findings at the level of the world.
    Keywords: urbanization; locational fundamentals; trade
    JEL: F14 N7 O47
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91679&r=all
  17. By: Eva Rye Johansen (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark); Helena Skyt Nielsen (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark); Mette Verner (VIVE (The Danish Centre of Applied Social Science))
    Abstract: Having children at an early age is known to be associated with unfavorable economic outcomes, such as lower education, employment and earnings. In this paper, we study the long-term consequences of early parenthood for mothers and fathers. Our study is based on rich register-based data that, importantly, merges all childbirths to the children’s mothers and fathers, allowing us to study the consequences of early parenthood for both parents. We perform a sibling fixed effects analysis in order to account for unobserved family attributes that are possibly correlated with early parenthood. The analysis is based on Danish men and women born between 1968 and 1977, from whom we identify brothers and sisters, respectively. We find that early parenthood reduces educational attainment and employment, and that the relationship is only slightly weaker for men than for women. One exception is earnings (and to lesser extent employment), as fathers appear to support the family, especially when early parenthood is combined with cohabitation with the mother and the child. Heterogeneous effects reveal that individuals with a more favorable socioeconomic background are affected more severely than individuals with a less favorable background. We interpret this as evidence of higher opportunity costs or stigma.
    Keywords: Teenage childbearing, long-term outcomes, heterogeneous effects
    JEL: I21 J13 J24
    Date: 2018–04–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2018-01-&r=all
  18. By: Vicente Ferreira
    Abstract: This paper addresses the evolution of evolutionary thought in economics as an alternative to the dominant static view of the economy. A short history of the earlier institutional approach, announced by Thorstein Veblen’s 1898 paper ‘Why is economics not an evolutionary science?’, is presented alongside a discussion of its key methodological and philosophical aspects. Veblen’s critiques of neoclassical economics are also discussed. Then the role of evolutionary concepts in economics throughout the twentieth century is analysed, from later institutionalists to recent complexity and chaos theories. It is argued complexity approaches are developed in line with Veblen’s institutional theory, and may be incorporated in an evolutionary theoretical framework which constitutes a necessary alternative to the neoclassical paradigm, as it better describes and studies real-world socio-economic phenomena.
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp012019&r=all
  19. By: Patrick Meyer; Gregory Ponthiere
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp19-06&r=all
  20. By: Claude DIEBOLT; Charlotte LE CHAPELAIN
    Abstract: The aim of this entry is (I) to undertake a critical reading of the seminal contribution of Lucas’ work to construct a model which represents the complexity of the links between human capital and economic growth (II) to review the empirical assessments of its endogenous nature.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Human Capital.
    JEL: E13 I20 I25 N30
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2019-02&r=all
  21. By: Timothy Riffe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kieron J. Barclay (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Christina Bohk-Ewald (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Human population renewal starts with births. Since births can happen at any time in the year and over a wide range of ages, demographers typically imagine the birth series as a continuous flow. Taking this construct literally, we visualize the Swedish birth series as a flow. A long birth series allows us to juxtapose the children born in a particular year with the children that they in turn had over the course of their lives, yielding a crude notion of cohort replacement. Macro patterns in generational growth define the meandering path of the flow, while temporal booms and busts echo through the flow with the regularity of a pulse.
    Keywords: Sweden, fertility
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-002&r=all
  22. By: Pandey, Radhika (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sapre. Amey (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sinha, Pramod (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: Identifiation of primary economic activity of firms is a prerequisite for compiling several macro aggregates. In this paper we take a statistical approach to understand the extent of changes in primary economic activity of firms over time and across different industries. We use the history of economic activity of over 46000 firms spread over 25 years from CMIE Prowess to identify the number of times firms change the nature of their business. Using the count of changes, we estimate Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models to gain predictability over changing economic activity across industry groups. We show that a Poisson model accurately characterizes the distribution of count of changes across industries and that firms with a long history are more likely to have changed their primary economic activity over the years. Findings show that classification can be a crucial problem in a large dataset like the MCA21 and can even lead to distortions in value addition estimates at the industry level.
    Keywords: Economic Activity ; Manufacturing ; India ; Poisson Distribution
    JEL: E00 E01
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:19/249&r=all
  23. By: Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros; Kyriazis, Nicholas
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze in brief how two ancient Greek federations, the Boeotoian and the Achaean ones took decisions on two crucial issues that relate the balance of power between city-states- members within the federation and defense policy. We analyze why the Boeotoian Federation followed a wrong grand strategy whereas the Achaean one implemented a prudent strategy regarding the issue of federal principles. Lastly, we compare our findings with a series of decisions that were taken in the last years by the today’s European Union (EU) policy-makers, and we relate them to the issues of “mismanagement” of “solidarity” of economic policies among member-states and democratic decision-making.
    Keywords: Ancient Greek federalism, European Union, solidarity, democratic deficit in decision making
    JEL: H12 H56 N43
    Date: 2019–01–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91442&r=all
  24. By: Gary Gorton; Toomas Laarits; Tyler Muir
    Abstract: Modern financial crises are difficult to explain because they do not always involve bank runs, or the bank runs occur late. For this reason, the first year of the Great Depression, 1930, has remained a puzzle. Industrial production dropped by 20.8 percent despite no nationwide bank run. Using cross-sectional variation in external finance dependence, we demonstrate that banks' decision to not use the discount window and instead cut back lending and invest in safe assets can account for the majority of this decline. In effect, the banks ran on themselves before the crisis became evident.
    JEL: E02 E3 G01
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25452&r=all
  25. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: The marginal federal tax rate on labor income is the percentage of additional income an individual earns that is paid in payroll taxes and federal income taxes. For payroll taxes, CBO estimates that the economywide marginal rate on labor income grew rapidly between the early 1960s and the early 1980s and has remained fairly stable thereafter. The rate on individual income taxes has fluctuated greatly over the past five decades. Marginal tax rates vary widely among families.
    JEL: H20 H24
    Date: 2019–01–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:54911&r=all
  26. By: Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros; Kyriazis, Nicholas
    Abstract: In the present essay we analyse the emergence of joint-stock companies during the 16th and 17th centuries in business (the Dutch partenrederij), and the VOC East India Companies). We suggest that in the Dutch Republic (DR) characterised by relative weak central authority, market solutions were found to solve organisation problems and these solutions, the first joint-stock companies, are efficient but also democratic in their structure. The DR demonstrate that democratic elements emerge in parallel in the economy (sometimes even preceding) and in the political field, which can be mutually reinforcing.
    Keywords: Joint-stock companies, Dutch Republic, Democratic elements in business
    JEL: L22 L24 M10 N13
    Date: 2019–01–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91447&r=all
  27. By: Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas (Instituto de Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo (INESAD))
    Abstract: Este trabajo analiza el crecimiento económico de largo plazo de Bolivia entre 1950 y 2015, identificando sus causas próximas a través de un ejercicio de contabilidad del crecimiento, que considera los efectos directos e indirectos de la Productividad Total de Factores (PTF) sobre el PIB por trabajador. La novedad es que la medida de PTF que se obtiene toma en cuenta el ajuste por calidad y uso de los factores de producción (capital y trabajo). Adicionalmente se hacen ejercicios de contabilidad del desarrollo (en tasas de crecimiento y niveles) comparando el desempeño de la economía boliviana con la economía chilena, encontrando que a pesar de que se han cerrado ciertas brechas con Chile, en los últimos años, sigue siendo la baja productividad el talón de Aquiles de la economía boliviana. Finalmente, se analizan las causas profundas del crecimiento económico boliviano, poniendo énfasis en los factores institucionales, externos, de eficiencia de la inversión y financieros. Se encuentra que los términos de intercambio y la estabilidad macroeconómica son los determinantes fundamentales de la PTF en Bolivia.
    Keywords: Crecimiento y Desarrollo, Productividad Total de Factores, Datos
    JEL: E23 O11 O47
    Date: 2018–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:201809&r=all
  28. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for a fleet of 355 ships—substantially larger than the current force of 283 ships. This report focuses on one of several approaches that the Navy could use to increase the size of its fleet: reactivating decommissioned ships. It draws insights from past experiences that might inform lawmakers’ decisions about reactivating retired ships in the future.
    JEL: H56 H57 L62 L64 N42 N62 N72
    Date: 2018–05–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:53820&r=all
  29. By: Joël Floris; Laurent Kaiser; Harald Mayr; Kaspar Staub; Ulrich Woitek
    Abstract: When a negative shock affects a cohort in utero, two things may happen: first, the population suffers detrimental consequences in later life; and second, some will die as a consequence of the shock, either in utero or early in life. The latter effect, often referred to as culling, may induce a bias in estimates of later life outcomes. When the health shock disproportionately affects a positively selected subpopulation, the long-term effects are overestimated. The 1918 flu pandemic was plausibly more harmful to mothers of high socioeconomic status, as a suppressed immune system in mothers of low socioeconomic status may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. Using historical birth records from the city of Bern, Switzerland, we assess this concern empirically and document that a careful consideration of culling is paramount for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other fetal health shocks.
    Keywords: Fetal origins hypothesis, 1918 flu pandemic, culling, survivorship bias
    JEL: I10 I15 I18 N34 J24
    Date: 2019–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:316&r=all
  30. By: Batista, Blessica
    Abstract: This article explores if there are common symptoms and steps to international financial crises by examining the causes and progress of financial crisis in Latin America and South East Asia. The symptoms are a currency crisis, a banking crisis, a sovereign debt crisis and a balance of payments crisis. It will also attempt to the question as to what is the relative responsibility of the center and the periphery of the international financial system in the genesis of crises.
    Keywords: Financial crises
    JEL: N2 N20
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91559&r=all
  31. By: Claude DIEBOLT; Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE
    Abstract: In this paper, we are interested in the behaviors taking place before the decision-making in terms of educational study choices. We report on an experiment whose aim is the production of data controlled in order to test the cliometric model of glutting developed by Diebolt (2001), and especially the sensitivity of individuals to expected wages and to the risk as related to a limited number of positions on the labor market.
    Keywords: Economics of Education, Experiment, Glutting, Study Choices.
    JEL: C91 N3
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2019-01&r=all

This nep-his issue is ©2019 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.