nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒01‒28
forty-six papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Financing the Golden Age of Irish Social Housing, 1932-1956 (and the dark ages which followed) By Michelle Norris
  2. Systemic Risk and the Great Depression By Sanjiv R. Das; Kris James Mitchener; Angela Vossmeyer
  3. Historical Analysis of National Subjective Wellbeing using millions of Digitized Books By Hills, Thomas; Proto, Eugenio; Sgroi, Daniel
  4. The rise of the middle class: The income gap between salaried employees and workers in Sweden, 1830-1935 By Bengtsson, Erik; Prado, Svante
  5. The Comfortable, the Rich, and the Super-rich. What Really Happened to Top British Incomes During the First Half of the Twentieth Century? By Peter Scott; James Walker
  6. On commercial gluts, or when the Saint-Simonians adopted Jean-Baptiste Say's view By Adrien Lutz
  7. Financial effects in historic consumption and investment functions By Stockhammer, Engelbert; Bengtsson, Erik
  8. Is there a Latin American agricultural growth pattern? Factor endowments and productivity in the second half of the twentieth century By Miguel Martín-Retortillo; Vicente Pinilla; Jackeline Velazco; Henry Willebald
  9. Culture and Colonial Legacy: Evidence from Public Goods Games By Latika Chaudhary; Jared Rubin; Sriya Iyer; Anand Shrivastava
  10. "From Each according to Ability; To Each according to Needs" Origin, Meaning, and Development of Socialist Slogans By Luc Bovens; Adrien Lutz
  11. The Founding of the Federal Reserve, the Great Depression and the Evolution of the U.S. Interbank Network By Jaremski, Matthew; Wheelock, David C.
  12. Shall We Twist? By Sophie Altermatt, Simon Beyeler
  13. The Long-Run Demand for M2 Reconsidered By Sophie Altermatt
  14. Cagan’s Paradox Revisited By Luca Benati
  15. Fishing Rights and Colonial Government: Institutional Development in the Bengal Presidency By Shourya Sen; Richard Adelstein
  16. Multigenerational Effects of Early Life Health Shocks By C. Justin Cook; Jason M. Fletcher; Angela Forgues
  17. Marx and Keynes: From exploitation to employment By Helmedag, Fritz
  18. On money, debt, trust and central banking By Claudio Borio
  19. The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis By Alvarez-Dias, Marcos; D'Hombres, Beatrice; Ghisetti, Claudia; Pontarollo, Nicola; Dijkstra, Lewis
  20. Thirty years of economic growth in Africa By João Amador; António R. dos Santos
  21. The distinct seasonality of early modern casual labor and the short durations of individual working years: Sweden 1500-1800 By Gary, Kathryn
  22. Class Agency Under Conditions of Self-Enforcement: Marx on Capitalists' Common's Problem By Korkut Alp Erturk
  23. Does Scientific Progress Affect Culture? A Digital Text Analysis By Michela Giorcelli; Nicola Lacetera; Astrid Marinoni
  24. An Insight into the History of the Engagement Institution By Astrid Isabela Bogdan
  25. Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster? By Ruchir Agarwal; Patrick Gaule
  26. Some New Insights on Financialisation and Income Inequality By Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Lionello F. Punzo
  27. Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster? By Agarwal, Ruchir; Gaule, Patrick
  28. Age-Based Property Tax Exemptions By H. Spencer Banzhaf; Ryan Mickey; Carlianne E. Patrick
  29. Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach By NYONI, THABANI
  30. What determines the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor? A literature review By Knoblach, Michael; Stöckl, Fabian
  31. La condition d'efficacité de la politique économique dans les synthèses néoclassiques : rigidité des prix ou asymétrie du rapport salarial ? By Nicolas Piluso
  32. A comparison between Japanese and French cost management-Contingency and institutional perspectives By Gregory Wegmann; Johei Oshita
  33. Mass Atrocities and their Prevention By Charles H. Anderton; Jurgen Brauer
  34. Class, education and social mobility: Madrid, 1880-1905 By Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia; Santiago de Miguel Salanova
  35. The Rise and Fall of Family Firms in the Process of Development By Maria Rosaria Carillo; Vincenzo Lombardo; Alberto Zazzaro
  36. The Rise and Fall of Family Firms in the Process of Development By Carillo, Maria Rosaria; Lombardo, Vincenzo; Zazzaro, Alberto
  38. La conception de l'homme dans la théorie de l'Echange Composite de François Perroux : entre homo economicus et homo religiosus By Claire Baldin; Ludovic Ragni
  39. The Cliometric Model of Glutting: An Experimental Analysis By Claude Diebolt; Magali Jaoul-Grammare
  40. Banking Crises in Developing Countries-What Crucial Role of Exchange Rate Stability and External Liabilities? By Brahim Gaies; Stéphane Goutte; Khaled Guesmi
  41. Human Capital and Economic Growth By Claude Diebolt; Charlotte Le Chapelain
  42. Ain’t got no, I got life: Childhood exposure to WW2 and financial risk taking in adult life. By Bellucci, Davide; Fuochi, Giulia; Conzo, Pierluigi
  43. Where Did Good Jobs Go? Acemoglu and Marx on Induced (Skill Replacing) Technical Change By Korkut Alp Erturk
  44. Labour market participation and atypical employment over the life cycle: A cohort analysis for Germany By Bachmann, Ronald; Felder, Rahel; Tamm, Marcus
  45. Determinantes de la productividad multifactorial: los casos de las principales economías latinoamerica-nas y emergentes de Asia (1960 - 2015) By William Gómez; Carlos Esteban Posada; Remberto Rhenals
  46. It’s a long walk: Lasting effects of maternity ward openings on labour market performance By Lazuka, Volha

  1. By: Michelle Norris (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin.)
    Abstract: The period from the early 1930s to mid-1950s was the golden age of social housing in the Republic of Ireland. During these three decades social housing accounted for 55 per cent of all new housing built and the proportion of Irish households accommodated in this sector increased to an all-time high of 18.6 per cent by 1961. Unlike the rest of Western Europe the expansion of Ireland’s social housing sector did not coincide with a golden age of welfare state expansion. Indeed the Ireland’s social housing sector began to stagnate and contract just as its welfare state commenced a late blossoming in the 1970s. This paper looks to financing arrangements to shed light on these atypical patterns of social housing sector expansion and contraction. The argument offered here is that initially the arrangements used to fund social housing in Ireland were very similar to those used in the other Western European countries which constructed large social housing sectors during the twentieth century. However, as this century wore on, the influence of the socio-political pressures which has constrained the growth of the wider Irish welfare state came to bear on the model used to fund social housing and precipitated the end of its golden age.
    Date: 2018–12–21
  2. By: Sanjiv R. Das; Kris James Mitchener; Angela Vossmeyer
    Abstract: We employ a unique hand-collected dataset and a novel methodology to examine systemic risk before and after the largest U.S. banking crisis of the 20th century. Our systemic risk measure captures both the credit risk of an individual bank as well as a bank’s position in the network. We construct linkages between all U.S. commercial banks in 1929 and 1934 so that we can measure how predisposed the entire network was to risk, where risk was concentrated, and how the failure of more than 9,000 banks during the Great Depression altered risk in the network. We find that the pyramid structure of the commercial banking system (i.e., the network’s topology) created more inherent fragility, but systemic risk was nevertheless fairly dispersed throughout banks in 1929, with the top 20 banks contributing roughly 18% of total systemic risk. The massive banking crisis that occurred between 1930{33 raised systemic risk per bank by 33% and increased the riskiness of the very largest banks in the system. We use Bayesian methods to demonstrate that when network measures, such as eigenvector centrality and a bank’s systemic risk contribution, are combined with balance sheet data capturing ex ante bank default risk, they strongly predict bank survivorship in 1934.
    Keywords: systemic risk, banking networks, Great Depression, Global Financial Crisis, marginal likelihood
    JEL: L10 N20
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Hills, Thomas (Department of Psychology, University of Warwick); Proto, Eugenio (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CAGE and IZA); Sgroi, Daniel (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CAGE and Nuffield College, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We develop a new way to measure national subjective well-being across the very long run where traditional survey data on well-being is not available. Our method is based on quantitative analysis of digitized text from millions of books published over the past 200 years, long before the widespread availability of consistent survey data. The method uses psychological valence norms for thousands of words in different languages to compute the relative proportion of positive and negative language for four different nations (the USA, UK, Germany and Italy). We validate our measure against existing survey data from the 1970s onwards (when such data became available) showing that our measure is highly correlated with surveyed life satisfaction. We also validate our measure against historical trends in longevity and GDP (showing a positive relationship) and conflict (showing a negative relationship). Our measure allows a first look at changes in subjective well-being over the past two centuries, for instance highlighting the dramatic fall in well-being during the two World Wars and rise in relation to longevity.
    Keywords: historical subjective well-being ; language ; big data ; GDP ; conflict
    JEL: N3 N4 O1 D6
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Prado, Svante (Department of Economy and Society, University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: We present the first comprehensive, long run salary information on Swedish middle-class employees before the twentieth century. Our data include school teachers, professors, clerks, policemen and janitors in Stockholm 1830–1935. We use the new data to compare the annual earnings of these middle-class employees with the annual earnings of farm workers and manufacturing workers. The results show that the income gap between the middle class and the working class widen drastically from the mid-nineteenth century to a historically high level during the 1880s and 1890s. The differentials then decreased during the first four decades of the twentieth century. The bulging earnings advantage of middle-class employees vis-à-vis unskilled workers chimes with Kocka’s depiction of the latter half of the nineteenth century as the era of the bourgeoisie.
    Keywords: wages; salaries; income inequality; middle class; Sweden
    JEL: J31 N13 N33
    Date: 2019–01–14
  5. By: Peter Scott (Henley Business School, University of Reading); James Walker (Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: We examine shifts in British income inequality and their causes between 1911 and 1949. Newly re-discovered Inland Revenue 1911 estimates and more detailed data from subsequent official income distribution enquiries are used to show that income was substantially more concentrated at the top of the income distribution in 1911 than previous estimates suggest, and that the top 1 per cent were the principal “losers” in the subsequent trend towards reduced income inequality. We find that this trend reflected a sharp decline in top “unearned” incomes - paralleling the findings of Piketty and Saez for France and the USA. This explains the paradox between the observed reduction in British income inequality and the lack of evidence for any substantial redistribution of income between salary and wage-earners.
    Keywords: Income inequality, United Kingdom
    JEL: H26 H87 E21
    Date: 2018–10
  6. By: Adrien Lutz (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: A standard reading in the history of economic thought sets the classical stream of economists drawing upon the influence of Adam Smith (Jean-Baptiste Say, David Ricardo, etc.) in opposition to a "black box" of social thinkers (Louis Blanc, Fourierism, Saint-Simonianism, Sismondi, Robert Owen). This article, however, argues that, in the first quarter of the 19th century, the Saint-Simonians and the liberal economist Jean-Baptiste Say can be seen to adopt convergent views during the famous controversy about commercial gluts. First, we show that the Saint-Simonians and Say both see undersupply and lack of industry as causes of gluts. Next, we assert that their intellectual affinities are also visible in their belief that increasing production remains an appropriate solution for gluts. Finally, this convergence is explained by their common belief in industrialism: Saint-Simonianism is embedded in a French industrialist tradition for which Say can be taken as representative. We argue that their common belief in industry explains their convergence.
    Keywords: Adam Smith,Laissez-faire,Commercial gluts,Jean-Baptiste Say,Saint-Simonianism
    Date: 2018–12–21
  7. By: Stockhammer, Engelbert (King's College London); Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of financial factors on economic performance. Most of the existing research analyses the post-World War 2 experience, and especially the 1980s onwards. This paper investigates the effects of stock prices, real estate prices and debt on consumption and investment expenditures by estimating consumption and investment equations for long historic datasets with about 100 years of data for Britain, France, Norway and Sweden. We find positive debt effects on consumption in three of four countries, but no consistent effects of share prices and house prices. We find positive effects of share prices on investment in all four countries. Effects are stronger in more market-based Britain than in more state-oriented France. For France, Sweden and Norway we find some evidence that effects of financial variables were weaker in the postwar period 1945-80. These findings suggest that the institutional context matters for how financial variables affect economic activity.
    Keywords: wealth effects; asset prices; consumption; investment; macroeconomic history
    JEL: E10 E21 E22 G10 N10 N14
    Date: 2019–01–14
  8. By: Miguel Martín-Retortillo (Universidad de Alcalá); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)); Jackeline Velazco (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: In this article we discuss whether there was a single Latin American pattern of agricultural growth between 1950 and 2008. We analyse the sources of growth of agricultural production and productivity in ten Latin American countries. Our results show that the differences between these countries are too strong to establish a single pattern for this region. However, certain common trends may be observed, such as the growing importance of labour productivity to explain agricultural production growth and the increasing importance of TFP to explain agricultural labour productivity growth.
    Keywords: Latin American Economic History, Latin American Agriculture, Agricultural Productivity, Agricultural Growth, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: N56 Q10 Q11
    Date: 2019–01
  9. By: Latika Chaudhary (Naval Postgraduate School); Jared Rubin (Chapman University); Sriya Iyer (University of Cambridge); Anand Shrivastava (Azim Premji University)
    Abstract: We conduct a public goods game in three small towns in the Indian state of Rajasthan. Due to historical military conquest, until 1947 these towns were on (barely) opposite sides of a colonial border separating British India from the Princely States. Our research design offers a treatment comparison between the towns of (British) Kekri and (Princely) Sarwar, and a control comparison between (Princely) Sarwar and (Princely) Shahpura. We find no significant difference in contributions to home town groups, but a significant difference in contributions to mixed town groups. Participants in (British) Kekri are more co-operative (i.e., contribute more) in mixed town groups compared to those in (Princely) Sarwar. We find the differences are driven by individuals with family ties to the towns, and we find no differences in the control comparison. Our results highlight the enduring effects of colonial rule on social norms of co-operation
    Keywords: cultural transmission, colonialism, public goods game, natural experiment, lab-in-the-field experiment, India
    JEL: C91 C93 C71 H41 H73 N35 N45 O17 Z1
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Luc Bovens (The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill); Adrien Lutz (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: There are three slogans in the history of Socialism that are very close in wording, namely, the famous Cabet-Blanc-Marx slogan: From each according to his ability; To each according to his needs; the earlier Saint-Simon-Pecqueur slogan: To each according to his ability; To each according to his works; and the later slogan in Stalin's 1936 Soviet Constitution: From each according to his ability; To each according to his work. We trace the earliest occurrences of these slogans and their biblical sources and we show how the progression from one slogan to the next casts light on the development of early socialist thought.
    Keywords: socialism,utopian socialism,bible,Christianity,slogans
    Date: 2019–01–08
  11. By: Jaremski, Matthew (Utah State University); Wheelock, David C. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: Financial network structure is an important determinant of systemic risk. This paper examines how the establishment of the Federal Reserve and Great Depression affected U.S. interbank network structure. Seeking liquidity sources, banks generally preferred to connect to Federal Reserve member banks in cities with Fed offices or clearinghouses. Overall network concentration declined initially as banks connected to Federal Reserve cities other than New York, but increased in the Depression. Banks that survived the Depression generally had higher percentages of connections to Federal Reserve cities and to correspondent banks that also survived.
    Keywords: Interbank Networks; Bank Concentration; Contagion; Systemically Important Financial Institutions; Federal Reserve Act; Great Depression
    JEL: G21 L14 N22
    Date: 2019–01–17
  12. By: Sophie Altermatt, Simon Beyeler
    Abstract: In recent monetary history, central banks around the world have started to introduce unconventional monetary policy measures, such as extending or restructuring the asset side of their balance sheet. The origin of these mon- etary policy tools goes back to an intervention by the U.S. Federal Reserve System under the Kennedy administration in 1961 known as Operation Twist. Operation Twist serves as a perfect laboratory to study the e ectiveness of such balance sheet policies, because interest rates neither were at their lower bound nor was the economy in a historical turmoil. We assess the actions of the FED and the Treasury under Operation Twist based on balance sheet data and evaluate their success using modern time series techniques. We nd that, although being of rather moderate size, the joint policy actions were e ective in compressing the long-short spreads of the Treasury bond rates.
    Keywords: Operation Twist, Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, Yield Curve, Time Series
    JEL: C22 E43 E52 E63 E65
    Date: 2018–05
  13. By: Sophie Altermatt
    Abstract: This paper reconsiders the long-run demand for M2 based on a newly con- structed dataset featuring 32 countries since the rst half of the 19th century. The evidence from cointegration tests suggests that a long-run equilibrium re- lationship for M2 demand is hardly present. Speci cally, only for ve countries (Finland, Korea, Mexico, Paraguay and Taiwan) cointegration tests produce strong evidence in favor of a stable long-run money demand. Evidence for Israel and Lebanon is weaker, but still points towards a stable long-run demand for M2. For all other countries evidence speaks against a stable money demand or it is mixed across money demand speci cations and/or type of cointegration test.
    Keywords: Money Demand, Velocity, Cointegration
    JEL: E4 E41
    Date: 2018–03
  14. By: Luca Benati
    Abstract: Data from 20 hyperinflations–from the French Revolution to Venezuela’s 2018 episode–provide nearly no evidence of a Laffer curve for seignorage. Rather, in nearly all cases, the relationship between the inflation tax and inflation has been either positive at all inflation rates, or initially positive and then flattening out towards the end of the hyperinflation. Consistent with this, econometric evidence shows that the preferred money demand specification at very high inflation rates is not Cagan’s (1956) ‘semi-log’, which automatically imposes a Laffer curve upon the data: rather, it is either Meltzer’s (1963) ‘loglog’– for which the inflation tax is monotonically increasing in inflation–or a more general functional form making log real money balances a linear function of the Box-Cox transformation of expected inflation (of which the ‘log-log’ is a special case), which allows the inflation tax to flatten out at high inflation rates. My results suggest that the paradox first highlighted by Cagan–of policymakers seemingly inflating in excess of the revenue-maximizing rate during hyperinflations–is the product of the literature’s predominant focus on the semi-log specification.
    Date: 2018–12
  15. By: Shourya Sen; Richard Adelstein (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)
    Abstract: We examine the evolution of fishing rights in colonial Bengal through a series of cases heard at the Calcutta High Court in the 1880s and culminating in the passage of legislation in 1889. We posit an implicit relational contract between the colonizing British and the landowning class in colonial Bengal as a way to understand the concurrent evolution of fishing rights and institutions of governance in the region. The system of incentives created by this contract determined the development of fishing rights at a crucial moment in the history of colonial Bengal and, more broadly, became a primary mechanism of institutional change in the region. The analysis also shows the Calcutta High Court to have acted, albeit in vain, as a truly independent judiciary.
    Keywords: fishing rights, state formation, relational contracts, colonialism, credible commitments
    JEL: N55 O13 P48
    Date: 2019–01
  16. By: C. Justin Cook; Jason M. Fletcher; Angela Forgues
    Abstract: A large literature has documented links between harmful early life exposures and later life health and socioeconomic deficits. These studies, however, are typically unable to examine the possibility that these shocks are transmitted to the next generation. Our study traces the impacts of in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on the outcomes of the children and grandchildren of those affected using representative survey data from the US. We find evidence of multigenerational effects on educational, economic, and health outcomes.
    JEL: I1 I14 J24
    Date: 2018–12
  17. By: Helmedag, Fritz
    Abstract: Marx's and Keynes's analyses of capitalism complement each other well. In a rather general model including the public sector and international trade it is shown that the labour theory of value provides a sound foundation to reveal the factors influencing employment. Workers buy "necessaries" out of their disposable wages from an integrated basic sector, whereas the "luxury" department's revenues spring from other sources of income. In order to maximize profits, the wage good industry controls the level of unit labour costs. After all, effective demand governs the volume of work. On this basis, implications for economic policy are outlined.
    Keywords: Employment,Marx,Keynes,Surplus value
    JEL: E11 E12 E24
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Claudio Borio
    Abstract: This essay examines in detail the properties of a well functioning monetary system - defined as money plus the mechanisms to execute payments - in both the short and long run, drawing on both theory and the lessons from history. It stresses the importance of trust and of the institutions needed to secure it. Ensuring price and financial stability is critical to nurturing and maintaining that trust. In the process, the essay addresses several related questions, such as the relationship between money and debt, the viability of cryptocurrencies as money, money neutrality, and the nexus between monetary and financial stability. While the present monetary system, with central banks and a prudential apparatus at its core, can and must be improved, it still provides the best basis to build on.
    Keywords: monetary system, money, debt, payments, trust, monetary stability, financial stability, central bank
    JEL: E00 E30 E40 E50 G21 N20
    Date: 2019–01
  19. By: Alvarez-Dias, Marcos (European Commission - JRC); D'Hombres, Beatrice (European Commission – JRC); Ghisetti, Claudia (European Commission – JRC); Pontarollo, Nicola (European Commission – JRC); Dijkstra, Lewis (European Commission)
    Abstract: This report studies population dynamics in Europe. Its purpose is threefold. First, the report offers a literature review of the main drivers of population growth. Second, an empirical analysis is carried out in order to unveil the determinants of population growth in EU sub-regions (NUTS3 level) over the period 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is employed to account for spatial dependence among neighbouring regions. Third, the existing evidence on the long-run relationship between economic and population growth is discussed, followed by an empirical assessment of the relationship between these two aggregates in Europe over the period 1960-2010. Time-series econometric tools are used for this analysis. The main findings of both the literature reviews and empirical analyses are discussed, along with their implications and future extensions.
    Keywords: population dynamics; population growth; spatial econometrics; time-series econometrics; spatial dependence; regional development
    JEL: C21 J11
    Date: 2018–11
  20. By: João Amador; António R. dos Santos
    Abstract: This paper examines the contribution of employment, capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth in African countries over the period 1986-2014. The methodology consists in the estimation of a translog dynamic stochastic production frontier for a set of 49 African economies, thus allowing for the breakdown of TFP along efficiency developments and technological progress. Although the heterogeneity amongst African countries poses a challenge to the estimation of a common production frontier, this is the best approach to perform cross-country comparisons. The results of our growth accounting exercise are more accurate for the contribution of input accumulation and TFP to GDP growth than for the separation between contributions of technological progress and efficiency. We conclude that economic growth patterns differ across African countries but they have been almost totally associated to input accumulation, notably in what concerns capital. The experience of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa - the three largest African economies - confirms this pattern.
    Keywords: Africa, Development, Growth Accounting, Dynamic Stochastic Frontiers
    Date: 2018
  21. By: Gary, Kathryn (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Historical wage studies have never been able to truly or accurately address the changes in the working year. Real wages have almost always been based on the wages of unskilled and casual laborers, typically paid by the day. Their annual incomes are not clear or obvious – the income is directly dependent on how many days they work. Implicitly the literature has assumed that the number of days worked is a matter of labor’s decision of how much labor to supply, but the actual work year, both at the individual level and for a statistical ‘typical’ worker, has remained to a large extent a black box. This paper makes use of nearly 28,000 observations representing over 151,000 paid workdays across over 300 years to investigate individual work patterns, work availability, and the changes in work seasonality over time. This sample is comprised of workers in the construction industry, and includes unskilled men and women as well as skilled building craftsmen – the industry which is often used to estimate comparative real wages through early modern Europe. Data come predominantly from Scania, the southernmost region in modern day Sweden, and especially from Malmö, the largest town in the region. Findings indicate that workers probably do not engage in paid labor on a purely labor-supply based schedule, but are instead also impacted by the demand for construction labor, which was highly seasonal. Seasonality was stronger further back in the past, indicating that finding longterm work may have been more difficult in earlier periods. A typical work year would probably not have been longer than 150 days, and would be made up of shorter work spells at several different sites. This is not enough work to meet standard assumptions of 250 days, or enough work for an unskilled man to support his family at a respectable level (see Allen 2001).
    Keywords: working year; seasonal work; labor patterns; early modern; Sweden
    JEL: J23 N13 N34
    Date: 2019–01–17
  22. By: Korkut Alp Erturk
    Abstract: Marx discussed institutional innovations in the context of a complex dynamic between inter versus intra-group opportunism, which contains clues for understanding how capacity for class agency develops. His lengthy discussion of the English Factory Acts in his Vol. I of Capital is an important case in point, which the paper revisits for its broader lessons not only for how institutions solve collective action problems but also how they become self-enforcing when third party enforcement is ineffective. The paper gives an account of how the Acts could have become self-enforcing at a time when the state enforcement capacity was rudimentary at best. The argument focuses on the dynamic between inter versus intra-class opportunism, shedding analytical light on how organized labor could help capitalists bolster their capacity for class agency.
    Keywords: Institutions, collective action problem, opportunistism, common's problem JEL Classification: B14,B55, C720
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Michela Giorcelli; Nicola Lacetera; Astrid Marinoni
    Abstract: We study the interplay between scientific progress and culture through text analysis on a corpus of about eight million books, with the use of techniques and algorithms from machine learning. We focus on a specific scientific breakthrough, the theory of evolution through natural selection by Charles Darwin, and examine the diffusion of certain key concepts that characterized this theory in the broader cultural discourse and social imaginary. We find that some concepts in Darwin’s theory, such as Evolution, Survival, Natural Selection and Competition diffused in the cultural discourse immediately after the publication of On the Origins of Species. Other concepts such as Selection and Adaptation were already present in the cultural dialogue. Moreover, we document semantic changes for most of these concepts over time. Our findings thus show a complex relation between two key factors of long-term economic growth – science and culture. Considering the evolution of these two factors jointly can offer new insights to the study of the determinants of economic development, and machine learning is a promising tool to explore these relationships.
    JEL: N00 O30 Z1
    Date: 2019–01
  24. By: Astrid Isabela Bogdan (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University, Romania)
    Abstract: The foundation stone of any society affirms on many occasions that it is the family, also called the basic cell of society, but before we can talk about the founding of a family, we consider it necessary to make a history for a stage that precedes the engagement. This institution, although it is an important element and often encountered in the history of many people, we can say that today it is gradually losing its essence. Moreover, we consider that the engagement term has undergone an intense process of metamorphosis, bearing in mind that initially, in many communities, this covenant first reflected a covenant belonging to the two families of which the two fiancées came from. Of course, this custom has been kept strictly, but only in certain communities. In addition, affirming the realization of such a ritual, if you wish, was a true event for which it was necessary to involve not only the two fiancées but the whole family. Also, this event has always been reported over time to another fundamental event – the marriage, and with the passage of time, it is interesting to note that the time interval has been incredibly shortened, but it is noteworthy that the engagement ring has preserved his sacred role in the whole process.
    Keywords: agreement, engagement, family, family law, habits
    Date: 2018–11
  25. By: Ruchir Agarwal; Patrick Gaule
    Abstract: The advancement of the knowledge frontier is crucial for technological innovation and human progress. Using novel data from the setting of mathematics, this paper establishes two results. First, we document that individuals who demonstrate exceptional talent in their teenage years have an irreplaceable ability to create new ideas over their lifetime, suggesting that talent is a central ingredient in the production of knowledge. Second, such talented individuals born in low- or middle-income countries are systematically less likely to become knowledge producers. Our findings suggest that policies to encourage exceptionally-talented youth to pursue scientific careers—especially those from lower income countries—could accelerate the advancement of the knowledge frontier.
    Date: 2018–12–07
  26. By: Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Lionello F. Punzo
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the relationship between income distribution and financialisation in the United States after the Second World War. Financialisation is introduced as a two-fold process. On the one hand, it can be understood as an increase in the contribution of the financial sector regarding the composition of production, or a flow dimension. On the other hand, we can see it as an increase in the importance of financial assets in terms of the composition of wealth, or a stock dimension. We make use of the share of financial employment on total employment as a proxy of the first dimension while wealth composition is measured as the share of financial assets on corporations' total assets. Applying cointegration techniques, we identied a positive long-run relationship between financialisation and income inequality. Causality goes from the flow dimension to inequality and from inequality to the stock dimension.
    Keywords: Financialisation, Income inequality, Wealth, United States.
    JEL: O14 O15 O16
    Date: 2018–12
  27. By: Agarwal, Ruchir (International Monetary Fund); Gaule, Patrick
    Abstract: The advancement of the knowledge frontier is crucial for technological innovation and human progress. Using novel data from the setting of mathematics, this paper establishes two results. First, we document that individuals who demonstrate exceptional talent in their teenage years have an irreplaceable ability to create new ideas over their lifetime, suggesting that talent is a central ingredient for the production of knowledge. Second, such talented individuals born in low- or middle-income countries are systematically less likely to become knowledge producers. Our findings suggest that policies to encourage exceptionally-talented youth to pursue scientific careers - especially those from lower income countries - could accelerate the advancement of the knowledge frontier.
    Keywords: talent, knowledge frontier, innovation, IMO, mathematics
    JEL: O31 J24 I25
    Date: 2018–11
  28. By: H. Spencer Banzhaf; Ryan Mickey; Carlianne E. Patrick
    Abstract: Many local jurisdictions offer property tax exemptions or similar concessions to older citizens. Such exemptions represent substantial intergenerational transfers and may have important implications for local public finances. The consequences of age-based property tax exemptions depend upon the extent to which they influence households' location decisions, housing tenure decisions, and housing consumption. We provide the first evidence on (long-term) changes in household composition and housing consumption attributable to local, age-based property tax exemptions. We construct a unique database of local property tax exemptions in Georgia covering 100 years of county, school district, and selected city property tax laws. We use these data to estimate the effect of age-based property tax exemptions on the number of older home-owners from 1970-2010 attributable to the exemption. Using a "quadruple-difference" estimation strategy, we find a significant increase in older homeowners attributable to the combined effect of age-based property tax exemptions on location decisions and housing tenure. We also find evidence that age-based property tax exemptions increase housing consumption among older households. Finally, we estimate a sorting model to estimate the equilibrium effects of different tax policies.
    JEL: H7 R2
    Date: 2019–01
    Abstract: Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in the United States of America (USA) from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. My diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that US GDP per capita data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and hence reliable. The results of the study reveal that living standards in the US are likely to sky-rocket over the next decade, especially if the current economic policy stance is to be at least maintained. Indeed, America is being made great again!!!
    Keywords: Economic growth; GDP; USA
    JEL: C53 E37 O47
    Date: 2019–01–04
  30. By: Knoblach, Michael; Stöckl, Fabian
    Abstract: This paper reviews the status quo of the empirical and theoretical literature on the determinants of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Our focus is on the two-input constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. By example of the U.S., we highlight the distinctive heterogeneity in empirical estimates of σ at both the aggregate and industrial level and discuss potential methodological explanations for this variation. The main part of this survey then focuses on the determinants of σ. We first review several approaches to the microfoundation of production functions, especially the CES production function. Second, we outline the construction of an aggregate elasticity of substitution (AES) in a multi-sectoral framework and investigate its dependence on underlying sectoral elasticities. Third, we discuss the influence of the institutional framework on the determination of σ. The concluding section of this review identifies a number of potential empirical and theoretical avenues for future research. Overall, we demonstrate that the effective elasticity of substitution (EES), which is typically estimated in empirical studies, is generally not an immutable deep parameter but depends on a multitude of technological, non-technological and institutional determinants.
    Keywords: elasticity of substitution,aggregate elasticity,capital,labor,economic growth,microfoundation,Cobb-Douglas and CES production function
    JEL: D24 E23 O14 O40
    Date: 2019
  31. By: Nicolas Piluso (CERTOP - Centre d'Etude et de Recherche Travail Organisation Pouvoir - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPS - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - INU Champollion - Institut national universitaire Champollion - Albi)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to challenge the thesis (very common in textbooks of macroeconomics and the history of economic thought) that Keynesian economic policy is effective only when introduces a rigidity of prices and / or wages in the models of the neoclassical synthesis. We examine the models of the old synthesis and the new synthesis to show that it is rather the asymmetry of the wage relationship that forms the basis of the effectiveness of Keynesian economic policies. We test an alternative model of the new synthesis to show that the assumption of price rigidity is not necessary for obtaining an efficiency result of the stimulus policy.
    Abstract: L'objet de cet article est de remettre en cause la thèse (très courante dans les manuels de macroéconomie et d'histoire de la pensée économique) selon laquelle la politique économique keynésienne n'est efficace qu'à compte du moment où l'on introduit une rigidité des prix et/ou des salaires dans les modèles de la synthèse néoclassique. Nous examinons les modèles de l'ancienne synthèse et de la nouvelle synthèse pour montrer que c'est plutôt l'asymétrie du rapport salarial qui constitue le fondement de l'efficacité des politiques économiques keynésiennes. Nous testons un modèle alternatif de la nouvelle synthèse pour montrer que l'hypothèse de ridigité des prix n'est pas nécessaire pour l'obtention d'un résultat d'efficacité de la politique de relance.
    Date: 2018–06–15
  32. By: Gregory Wegmann (CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations [Dijon] - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté, LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Johei Oshita
    Abstract: From an historical perspective, management accounting is a very recent phenomenon (see Johnson & Kaplan, 1987) and is culturally grounded in a few old-industrialized countries, in Europe: Germany, United-Kingdom, France, but also in Japan and in the United-Stated. Notwithstanding the cultural dominance of English-speaking countries on management, non-English speaking countries keep strong institutional and cultural roots that still influence their ways of managing companies. This is the case when looking at management accounting and more especially at cost accounting and cost management practices (now cost accounting/management). This paper, based on contingency and institutional frameworks, explores what are the similarities and differences of Japanese and French cost accounting/management. The first part describes the theoretical background, the second part presents the Japanese context, the third part the French one and the fourth part discusses the question. The historical, institutional and cultural backgrounds of the two countries are reviewed, focusing on cost accounting / management with a view on target costing. Through a comparative approach, specific French and Japanese ways of managing the costs are put in evidence. The research shows that the attitude towards target costing and the specific practices of cost accounting/management observed in France and Japan highlight the differences and similarities between the two countries. Both countries are also influenced by the Anglo-Saxon practices, and evidences of convergence become apparent.
    Keywords: France,cost accounting,cost management,Comparison France/Japan,Japan
    Date: 2018–10–29
  33. By: Charles H. Anderton (College of the Holy Cross); Jurgen Brauer (Chulalongkorn University)
    Abstract: Counting conservatively, and ignoring physical injuries and mental trauma, data show about 100 million mass atrocity-related deaths since 1900. Occurring in war and in peacetime, and of enormous scale, severity, and brutality, they are geographically widespread, occur with surprising frequency, and can be long-lasting in their adverse effects on economic and human development, wellbeing, and wealth. As such, they are a major economic concern. This article synthesizes very diverse and widely dispersed theoretical and empirical literatures, addressing two gaps: a “mass atrocities gap” in the economics literature and an “economics gap” in mass atrocities scholarship. Our goals are, first, for noneconomists to learn how economic inquiry contributes to understanding the causes and conduct of mass atrocities and possibly to their mitigation and prevention and, second, to survey and synthesize for economists a broad sweep of literatures to serve as a common platform on which to base further work in this field.
    JEL: D91 F55 H56 J15 P16
    Date: 2019–01
  34. By: Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia (Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Santiago de Miguel Salanova (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)
    Abstract: Relying on an extremely rich data set of individuals living in Madrid in 1880 and 1905, this article explores the relationship between class, access to education and social mobility. In order to do so, we first focus on children and assess the probability of being literate according to their parents’ socio-economic status. Although inequality in education declined during the period under study, this social gap was still substantial in 1905. Linking where these children lived with the location of public schools, we show that, although the expansion of the supply of schools improved access to education of children from disadvantaged backgrounds, the public effort was clearly insufficient to overcome the challenges these families faced. Lastly, we analyse the returns to education by studying social mobility. In this regard, we have matched the children existing in our sample in 1880 with their corresponding adult-selves in 1905, 25 years later, using record linkage techniques. Our analysis shows that letting literate enhanced children's chances of moving up the social ladder. Taking together, our results show that high inequality levels, together with an inadequate schooling system, prevented a significant fraction of the schooling-age population to access education and thus limited subsequent economic growth.
    Keywords: Inequality, schooling, education, social mobility
    JEL: N33 J24 I24
    Date: 2019–01
  35. By: Maria Rosaria Carillo (University of Naples Parthenope); Vincenzo Lombardo (University of Naples Parthenope); Alberto Zazzaro (Universit of Naples Federico II, CSEF and MoFiR)
    Abstract: This paper explores the causes and the consequences of the evolution of family firms in the growth process. The theory suggests that in early stages of development, valuable family specific human capital stimulated the productivity of family firms and the development process. However, in light of the rise in the importance of managerial talents for firms' productivity in later stages, family firms generated a misallocation of managerial talents, curbing productivity and economic growth. Evidence supports the dual impact of family firms in the development process and the role of socio-cultural characteristics in observed variations in the productivity of family firms.
    Keywords: Family firms, economic development and growth, culture and social structure, allocation of talents, industrialization
    JEL: D2 J62 L26 O14 O33 O4 Z1
    Date: 2019–01–22
  36. By: Carillo, Maria Rosaria; Lombardo, Vincenzo; Zazzaro, Alberto
    Abstract: This paper explores the causes and the consequences of the evolution of family firms in the growth process. The theory suggests that in early stages of development, valuable family specific human capital stimulated the productivity of family firms and the development process. However, in light of the rise in the importance of managerial talents for firms' productivity in later stages, family firms generated a misallocation of managerial talents, curbing productivity and economic growth. Evidence supports the dual impact of family firms in the development process and the role of socio-cultural characteristics in observed variations in the productivity of family firms.
    Keywords: Family firms, economic development and growth, culture and social structure, allocation of talents, industrialization
    JEL: D2 J62 L26 O14 O33 O4 Z1
    Date: 2019–01–03
  37. By: Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Andrew Johnston (University of Sheffield [Sheffield]); Armand Hatchuel (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2018
  38. By: Claire Baldin (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Ludovic Ragni (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS)
    Abstract: : Cet article réexamine les fondements, analytiques, conceptuels et philosophiques sur lesquels repose la conception de l'homme que Perroux promeut pour définir l'Echange Composite par rapport à l'homo œconomicus propre à l'Echange Pur. Une première partie montre que l'Echange Composite constitue -i- une critique du rationalisme des modèles d'Echange pur marginalistes et d'équilibre général -ii- que cette critique repose sur une série de concepts qui ont contribués à définir le système que Perroux a toujours défendu (effets de domination, luttes-concours, conflits-coopérations, coûts de l'homme, dons et transferts contraints). Une seconde partie met en évidence que ces concepts trouvent leur origine dans une philosophie spécifique à la fois spiritualiste et communautariste qui s'inscrit dans l'oecuménisme chrétien de Perroux et qui fonde sa conception de l'homme.
    Keywords: François Perroux, Marginalism, Pur Exchange, Composite Exchange, Human conception, Church's Social Doctrine
    JEL: B13 B16 B21 B40 D51 D63
    Date: 2019–01
  39. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Magali Jaoul-Grammare (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France)
    Date: 2019
  40. By: Brahim Gaies; Stéphane Goutte (LED - Université Paris 8); Khaled Guesmi
    Abstract: We examine the determinants of banking crises occurrence in developing countries, focusing on the impact of the nature of external liabilities and exchange rate stability. For this purpose, we use a logit panel model, including 67 developing countries observed between 1972 and 2011, as well as a set of alternative estimation methods (logit fixed-effects and probit random-effects) and robustness tests. We find that FDI liabilities reduce the occurrence of banking crises, but debt liabilities increase them. In addition, banking crises occurrence decreases in developing countries with the stability of the exchange rate, real GDP growth, as well as better human capital quality and better political institutions.
    Keywords: Financial Crises,External Liabilities,Exchange Rate Stability
    Date: 2019–01–09
  41. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Charlotte Le Chapelain (CLHDPP-BETA, University of Lyon 3, Lyon, France)
    Date: 2019
  42. By: Bellucci, Davide; Fuochi, Giulia; Conzo, Pierluigi (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Childhood adverse experiences might have long-lasting effects on decisions under uncertainty in adult life. Merging the European Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement with data on conflict events happened during Second World War, and relying on region-by-cohort variation in war exposure, we show that warfare exposure during childhood is associated with lower financial risk taking in later life. Individuals who experienced war episodes as children hold less – and are less likely to hold – stocks, but are more likely to hold life insurance, compared to non-exposed individuals. Effects are robust to the inclusion of potential mediating factors, and are tested for nonlinearity and heterogeneity. In addition, war-exposed respondents show higher resilience to financial shocks, as they react less dramatically to stock market losses. By shaping cognitive schemata, the experience of war might have increased the perception of uncertainty and uncontrollability of the environment, leading to an overestimation of risks and of the likelihood of negative events.
    Date: 2019–01
  43. By: Korkut Alp Erturk
    Abstract: The paper lays out a hypothesis about the effect global oversupply of labor had on induced technological change, clarifying how it might have contributed to the demand reversal for high skill workers and other recent observed trends in technological change in the US. The argument considers the effect of market friendly political/institutional transformations of the 1980s on technology as they created a potential for an integrated global labor market. The innovations induced by the promise of this potential eventually culminated in the creation of global value chains and production networks. These required large set up costs and skill enhancing innovations, but once in place they reduced the dependence of expanding low skill employment around the globe on skill intensive inputs from advanced countries, giving rise to the wellobserved high skill demand reversal and sputtering of IT investment.
    Keywords: Income inequality, job polarization, skill downgrading, induced technological change, organization of work, craft economy, global production networks JEL Classification: F60, F15, 030, E10, B51
    Date: 2019
  44. By: Bachmann, Ronald; Felder, Rahel; Tamm, Marcus
    Abstract: We use data from the adult cohort of the National Education Panel Study to analyse the changes in the employment histories of cohorts born after World War II and the role of atypical employment in this context. Younger cohorts are characterised by acquiring more education, by entering into employment at a higher age, and by experiencing atypical employment more often. The latter is associated with much higher employment of women for younger cohorts. A sequence analysis of employment trajectories illustrates the opportunities and risks of atypical employment: The proportion of individuals whose entry into the labour market is almost exclusively characterised by atypical employment rises significantly across the cohorts. Moreover, a substantial part of the increase in atypical employment is due to the increased participation of women, with part-time jobs or mini-jobs playing an important role in re-entering the labour market after career breaks.
    Keywords: atypical employment,regular employment,cohort differences,life cycle analysis,sequence analysis
    JEL: J21 J42 J81
    Date: 2018
  45. By: William Gómez; Carlos Esteban Posada; Remberto Rhenals
    JEL: C33 E22 E24 F43
    Date: 2018–12–01
  46. By: Lazuka, Volha (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Studies showing that large-scale public health interventions in early life have lasting economic consequences are still scarce and rarely disclose the mechanisms. Being born in a hospital versus having a traditional birth attendant at home represents the most common early life policy change worldwide. Knowing the consequences of this policy is also important given the ongoing enlargement of maternity hospitals. In 1931–1946, the Swedish state subsidized the opening of new maternity wards, which led to the gradual decline of home deliveries assisted by midwives. Maternity wards offered improved conditions for mothers and newborns, including hygiene, surgical proficiency and medications, and health monitoring. By applying a difference-in-differences approach and geocoding techniques to register-based individuallevel data on the total population, observed from birth until the age of 65, this paper explores the long-term economic effects of access to better health services at birth using the opening of maternity wards throughout the country as an early life quasi-experiment. The paper first finds that the reform substantially reduced neonatal mortality in the short term by 19.0–26.5 deaths per 1000. Capturing survivors of the affected cohorts at the ages of 47–64, it then shows sizable long-term effects of the introduction of maternity wards on labour income (2.4–4.7 per cent) and disability pensions (4.4–11.9 per cent). The effects run directly through better health and indirectly through higher levels of schooling. Small-scale local maternity wards yield a larger social rate of return than large-scale hospitals, stemming from the treatment of normal births.
    Keywords: early life; maternity ward; labour income; efficency; Sweden
    JEL: I18 I38 J24 N34
    Date: 2019–01–14

This nep-his issue is ©2019 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.